WEBVTT - No Shock And Awe Here: Mike Lyons Talks To A&G

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukrainians are struggling to make the big breakthrough. It

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<v Speaker 1>could take more time. They're still hopeful, and they are

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<v Speaker 1>still pressing the United States and their allies for more

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<v Speaker 1>military aid, more support to try and get through those minefields.

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<v Speaker 1>And official telling me they have a fraction of the

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<v Speaker 1>d mining equipment they need.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a problem. This headline was troubling yesterday from the

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<v Speaker 2>New York Times. US intelligence assessment says Ukraine's counter offensive

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<v Speaker 2>will fail to achieve key objective. That's what our intelligence says.

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<v Speaker 2>It's troubling that it's true. I think it's also troubling

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<v Speaker 2>that they're telling us this. Why is that coming out?

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<v Speaker 2>Is there a reason for that?

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<v Speaker 3>Let's discuss that and several other matters of note with

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Lyons, military analyst, a major in the United States

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<v Speaker 3>Armed Forces serving the country all over the world, and

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<v Speaker 3>respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike, how

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<v Speaker 3>are you, sir, guy?

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<v Speaker 4>It's great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Last time you're on you were more optimistic than usual

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<v Speaker 2>about Ukrainian's chances with this counter offensive. Where are we now?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I was because they were at least able to

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<v Speaker 4>get to the first line of defenses there they got

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<v Speaker 4>into a town Rovertine, but in two short weeks it

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<v Speaker 4>looks like they pushed back towards Zaparizia and this Melitopo,

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<v Speaker 4>which is their key objective. It's only seventy five miles

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<v Speaker 4>from where they're sitting right now. It just seems unreachable

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<v Speaker 4>for them. And that's because you lay two to three

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<v Speaker 4>defensive layers of minefields together with built up areas that

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<v Speaker 4>they can't avoid without the equipment, without the mind clearing equipment.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, it's really what it comes down to, and

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<v Speaker 4>how they've deployed these mines. They've been stacking them two

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<v Speaker 4>and three underneath into the ground at the time. So

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<v Speaker 4>even if the mind clearing equipment gets the first two,

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<v Speaker 4>there's still one to go and it blows the tracks

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<v Speaker 4>off the tanks and then you just overall add no

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<v Speaker 4>air superiority at whatsoever. You just don't get any kind

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<v Speaker 4>of recipe for success. You know. Counter offensives are about bold,

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<v Speaker 4>audacious moves, the shock and awe, you know, all those

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<v Speaker 4>things that you look in history and shock effect and stuff.

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<v Speaker 4>None of that's here, and that's that's just why they're

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<v Speaker 4>not been successful.

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<v Speaker 3>And on the topic of airpower. Do I understand correctly

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<v Speaker 3>that the F sixteens won't be available and piloted perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>until early twenty five.

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<v Speaker 4>That's probably right, and based on the pilots, and the

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<v Speaker 4>next F sixteens that are going to show up are

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<v Speaker 4>going to be twenty years old, they're not going to

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<v Speaker 4>be the F sixteens that they need to take out

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<v Speaker 4>Russian counter electronic warfare measures and not just provide close

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<v Speaker 4>air support for troops, but to do things from a

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<v Speaker 4>deep strike perspective. They're not going to have that capability,

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<v Speaker 4>and they're not getting the top shelf F sixteens. They're getting.

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<v Speaker 4>What these NATO countries are doing very smartly right now

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<v Speaker 4>is all their kind of lousy natal equipment for in

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<v Speaker 4>the past twenty five years. They're shipping it to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 4>They willing to get rid of it because they want

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<v Speaker 4>to basically rearm themselves over the next ten years with

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<v Speaker 4>new stuff. And that's what's happening with these Suppose it's

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<v Speaker 4>not like thirty of them too again, they need one

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<v Speaker 4>hundred and twenty of them. They need squadrons of them

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<v Speaker 4>in order to be effective in the fight.

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<v Speaker 2>So Ukraine is in the unfortunate situation of not winning

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<v Speaker 2>is losing for them, but for Russia, not winning is

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<v Speaker 2>not losing for them. They can just hold ground and

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<v Speaker 2>wait right.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, and we're seeing now what's come out of Russian

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<v Speaker 4>intelligence sources that they want to freeze in place and

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<v Speaker 4>they want to stay and kind of hold the line.

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<v Speaker 4>Right now, they were going on some counter offensive operations

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<v Speaker 4>in the north in back Moot, still trying to take

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<v Speaker 4>that you know town that has no significant strategic value.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, the line's still eight hundred kilometers long, and

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<v Speaker 4>in order for them to try to do something, but

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<v Speaker 4>they recognize that they don't have the firepower, the shock

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<v Speaker 4>effect in order to do the same thing to go

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<v Speaker 4>in any kind of counter offensive. So they're coming to

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<v Speaker 4>the conclusion that they're just going to continue to dig in.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, that's kind of the you know, talking about

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<v Speaker 4>it with other analysts, you know, Russian tactics right now

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<v Speaker 4>is you know, go in, take over a place and

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<v Speaker 4>mind yourself in, you know, get ready for the long run.

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<v Speaker 4>You're not leaving, and when you do leave, you know

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<v Speaker 4>the way out and the enemy trying to come in

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<v Speaker 4>is not going to be very successful without the mind

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<v Speaker 4>clearing equipment. So I'm just going to see a stalemate there.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just curious. So if we were faced with that,

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<v Speaker 2>the United States, the best military in the world, how

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<v Speaker 2>how well would we be able to get through you know,

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<v Speaker 2>these mind laden fields or how long would it take?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, first of all, we'd absolutely destroy them from the

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<v Speaker 4>air before we even move soldiers into them. We have

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<v Speaker 4>over pressurized bombs that blow the minds up in place,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, you know, we still obviously have the risk casualties.

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<v Speaker 4>We have better mind clearing equipment, but we just have

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<v Speaker 4>it in scale that none of these other countries have

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<v Speaker 4>it in so and you know we would we would

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<v Speaker 4>be coming at them from naval power, from the air.

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<v Speaker 4>It's you know, it would be no match, and we

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<v Speaker 4>would not risk our soldiers until we were positive that

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<v Speaker 4>we were going to succeed. So it's just it's all

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<v Speaker 4>the difference in modern warfare, and we're watching a early

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<v Speaker 4>you know, twentieth century war take place with we really

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<v Speaker 4>have the only twenty first century Army.

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<v Speaker 3>Military analyst Mike lyons on the line, Mike, let's shift

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<v Speaker 3>to the Pacific theater. It is notable any student of

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<v Speaker 3>history understands this that Japan and South Korea are arm

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<v Speaker 3>in arm virtually meeting with the president and Camp David

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<v Speaker 3>talking about military cooperation. What are your thoughts on that.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think it's good. I think, you know, that's becoming.

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<v Speaker 4>That's we're going to look to hear twenty years from

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<v Speaker 4>now and see if something does happen there, You're going

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<v Speaker 4>to see all these little indications of what had taken

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<v Speaker 4>place there. The Japanese, unlike the Germans, are trying to

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<v Speaker 4>at least reset their military historically, and you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>Japanese are warriors. They you know, saw that in World

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<v Speaker 4>War Two, and you know, so I think from you know,

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<v Speaker 4>their surviability perspective, they recognize the threat to China is

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<v Speaker 4>they threat on the seas in the South China Sea

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<v Speaker 4>as well, and Australia as a key ally for US there.

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<v Speaker 4>We've got other sides, other militaries there that we have

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<v Speaker 4>so so that that alliance there is kind of like

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<v Speaker 4>you know, natal Light Pacific is what's taking place, not formalized,

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<v Speaker 4>but the implied missions that are going on there, and

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<v Speaker 4>I think those are all good things.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I agree completely. I think we both agree it's

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<v Speaker 3>a very good thing. Given the threat of China. But

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<v Speaker 3>it's notable since Japan committed just horrifying atrocities in South

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<v Speaker 3>Korea through the years. I mean that the wounds are

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<v Speaker 3>still very painful between those two peoples, but they are

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<v Speaker 3>so intent on countering China. They've gotten together again, which

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<v Speaker 3>I think is a good thing.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, and and those right, clearly generations go back

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<v Speaker 4>with regard to that in what Japan did during the

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<v Speaker 4>Second World War. But they both look at each other,

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<v Speaker 4>and they look at China as exontential threat to both

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<v Speaker 4>of them, and so they're they're gonna they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>work together, both of them, with the support of the

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<v Speaker 4>United States as long as you know, we're in the

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<v Speaker 4>room at the same time. And you know, I'm sure

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<v Speaker 4>there's emotions that get get in play every once in

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<v Speaker 4>a while, but fundamentally they recognize where the enemy is.

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<v Speaker 2>Finally, the Taliban has been celebrating this week their two

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<v Speaker 2>year anniversary of having taken back over Afghanistan after our withdrawal.

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<v Speaker 2>Any thoughts on this two year anniversary, Yeah, I'll.

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<v Speaker 4>Tell you it's still through the military community. There's been

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<v Speaker 4>no real after action report this because the administration is

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<v Speaker 4>basically kept it under wraps. They recognize how bad it is.

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<v Speaker 4>We saw the parents testify in front of Congress. We

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<v Speaker 4>didn't see any the military was not punished that Sentcom commander.

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<v Speaker 4>I hold him responsible for the depths of those marines there.

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<v Speaker 4>They never should have been anywhere near civilians in the

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<v Speaker 4>last few days. There's no difference between Afghanistan between what

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<v Speaker 4>happened there and what happened in Vietnam from a historical perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>with the only difference is fifty eight thousand body bags

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<v Speaker 4>that came home in the sixties and seventies. And if

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<v Speaker 4>we didn't learn the lesson, and hopefully we'll learn it

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<v Speaker 4>in the future, it.

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<v Speaker 3>Is remarkable and disgusting that mountability is so vital. It's

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<v Speaker 3>it's irreplaceable on the battlefield and in maneuvers, and as

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<v Speaker 3>you get further up the chain, there's less and less accountability.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just it's it's angering.

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<v Speaker 4>We had it during the World Wars, but really since

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<v Speaker 4>then we haven't seen it. And you know, we didn't

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<v Speaker 4>assign a general officer, for example, in Afghanistan, to say

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<v Speaker 4>go win this war. Instead, we rotated them out. It

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<v Speaker 4>was kind of like a you know, a human resources

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<v Speaker 4>you know they got this guy got the experience. Let

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<v Speaker 4>this guy get the experience. I mean, we fought all

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<v Speaker 4>these different wars. Every time we got a new commander there,

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<v Speaker 4>and that didn't happen in World War One, World War two,

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<v Speaker 4>we put a person in place, we put a general

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<v Speaker 4>officer in places to go win that war. And when

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<v Speaker 4>they didn't, they got fired and we put somebody out

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<v Speaker 4>there that can do the job.

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<v Speaker 3>Mike Lyons on the line, Mike always enlightening. Thanks a

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<v Speaker 3>million for the time. Good to talk to you, great.

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<v Speaker 4>Guys, Thanks for having me. See soon. Armstrong and Getty