1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are struggling to make the big breakthrough. It 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: could take more time. They're still hopeful, and they are 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: still pressing the United States and their allies for more 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: military aid, more support to try and get through those minefields. 5 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,079 Speaker 1: And official telling me they have a fraction of the 6 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: d mining equipment they need. 7 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 2: That's a problem. This headline was troubling yesterday from the 8 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 2: New York Times. US intelligence assessment says Ukraine's counter offensive 9 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: will fail to achieve key objective. That's what our intelligence says. 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: It's troubling that it's true. I think it's also troubling 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: that they're telling us this. Why is that coming out? 12 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: Is there a reason for that? 13 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 3: Let's discuss that and several other matters of note with 14 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 3: Mike Lyons, military analyst, a major in the United States 15 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: Armed Forces serving the country all over the world, and 16 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 3: respected military analyst on CNN among other places. Mike, how 17 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 3: are you, sir, guy? 18 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 4: It's great to be back with you. 19 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 2: Last time you're on you were more optimistic than usual 20 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: about Ukrainian's chances with this counter offensive. Where are we now? 21 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was because they were at least able to 22 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 4: get to the first line of defenses there they got 23 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 4: into a town Rovertine, but in two short weeks it 24 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: looks like they pushed back towards Zaparizia and this Melitopo, 25 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 4: which is their key objective. It's only seventy five miles 26 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 4: from where they're sitting right now. It just seems unreachable 27 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,199 Speaker 4: for them. And that's because you lay two to three 28 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 4: defensive layers of minefields together with built up areas that 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 4: they can't avoid without the equipment, without the mind clearing equipment. 30 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 4: You know, it's really what it comes down to, and 31 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 4: how they've deployed these mines. They've been stacking them two 32 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 4: and three underneath into the ground at the time. So 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 4: even if the mind clearing equipment gets the first two, 34 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 4: there's still one to go and it blows the tracks 35 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 4: off the tanks and then you just overall add no 36 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: air superiority at whatsoever. You just don't get any kind 37 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: of recipe for success. You know. Counter offensives are about bold, 38 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 4: audacious moves, the shock and awe, you know, all those 39 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 4: things that you look in history and shock effect and stuff. 40 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: None of that's here, and that's that's just why they're 41 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 4: not been successful. 42 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 3: And on the topic of airpower. Do I understand correctly 43 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: that the F sixteens won't be available and piloted perhaps 44 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 3: until early twenty five. 45 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 4: That's probably right, and based on the pilots, and the 46 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: next F sixteens that are going to show up are 47 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 4: going to be twenty years old, they're not going to 48 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 4: be the F sixteens that they need to take out 49 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 4: Russian counter electronic warfare measures and not just provide close 50 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 4: air support for troops, but to do things from a 51 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 4: deep strike perspective. They're not going to have that capability, 52 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 4: and they're not getting the top shelf F sixteens. They're getting. 53 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 4: What these NATO countries are doing very smartly right now 54 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 4: is all their kind of lousy natal equipment for in 55 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 4: the past twenty five years. They're shipping it to Ukraine. 56 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,399 Speaker 4: They willing to get rid of it because they want 57 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 4: to basically rearm themselves over the next ten years with 58 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 4: new stuff. And that's what's happening with these Suppose it's 59 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 4: not like thirty of them too again, they need one 60 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,399 Speaker 4: hundred and twenty of them. They need squadrons of them 61 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 4: in order to be effective in the fight. 62 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 2: So Ukraine is in the unfortunate situation of not winning 63 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: is losing for them, but for Russia, not winning is 64 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: not losing for them. They can just hold ground and 65 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 2: wait right. 66 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 4: Right, and we're seeing now what's come out of Russian 67 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 4: intelligence sources that they want to freeze in place and 68 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 4: they want to stay and kind of hold the line. 69 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 4: Right now, they were going on some counter offensive operations 70 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 4: in the north in back Moot, still trying to take 71 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 4: that you know town that has no significant strategic value. 72 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 4: You know, the line's still eight hundred kilometers long, and 73 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 4: in order for them to try to do something, but 74 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 4: they recognize that they don't have the firepower, the shock 75 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 4: effect in order to do the same thing to go 76 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 4: in any kind of counter offensive. So they're coming to 77 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 4: the conclusion that they're just going to continue to dig in. 78 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 4: You know, that's kind of the you know, talking about 79 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 4: it with other analysts, you know, Russian tactics right now 80 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 4: is you know, go in, take over a place and 81 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 4: mind yourself in, you know, get ready for the long run. 82 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: You're not leaving, and when you do leave, you know 83 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 4: the way out and the enemy trying to come in 84 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: is not going to be very successful without the mind 85 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 4: clearing equipment. So I'm just going to see a stalemate there. 86 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 2: I'm just curious. So if we were faced with that, 87 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: the United States, the best military in the world, how 88 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 2: how well would we be able to get through you know, 89 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 2: these mind laden fields or how long would it take? 90 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, we'd absolutely destroy them from the 91 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 4: air before we even move soldiers into them. We have 92 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 4: over pressurized bombs that blow the minds up in place, 93 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 4: you know, you know, we still obviously have the risk casualties. 94 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 4: We have better mind clearing equipment, but we just have 95 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 4: it in scale that none of these other countries have 96 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 4: it in so and you know we would we would 97 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 4: be coming at them from naval power, from the air. 98 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 4: It's you know, it would be no match, and we 99 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 4: would not risk our soldiers until we were positive that 100 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 4: we were going to succeed. So it's just it's all 101 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 4: the difference in modern warfare, and we're watching a early 102 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 4: you know, twentieth century war take place with we really 103 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 4: have the only twenty first century Army. 104 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 3: Military analyst Mike lyons on the line, Mike, let's shift 105 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 3: to the Pacific theater. It is notable any student of 106 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: history understands this that Japan and South Korea are arm 107 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 3: in arm virtually meeting with the president and Camp David 108 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 3: talking about military cooperation. What are your thoughts on that. 109 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's good. I think, you know, that's becoming. 110 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 4: That's we're going to look to hear twenty years from 111 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: now and see if something does happen there, You're going 112 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 4: to see all these little indications of what had taken 113 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 4: place there. The Japanese, unlike the Germans, are trying to 114 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 4: at least reset their military historically, and you know, the 115 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 4: Japanese are warriors. They you know, saw that in World 116 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 4: War Two, and you know, so I think from you know, 117 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 4: their surviability perspective, they recognize the threat to China is 118 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 4: they threat on the seas in the South China Sea 119 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 4: as well, and Australia as a key ally for US there. 120 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 4: We've got other sides, other militaries there that we have 121 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 4: so so that that alliance there is kind of like 122 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 4: you know, natal Light Pacific is what's taking place, not formalized, 123 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 4: but the implied missions that are going on there, and 124 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 4: I think those are all good things. 125 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 3: Well, I agree completely. I think we both agree it's 126 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 3: a very good thing. Given the threat of China. But 127 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 3: it's notable since Japan committed just horrifying atrocities in South 128 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 3: Korea through the years. I mean that the wounds are 129 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 3: still very painful between those two peoples, but they are 130 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 3: so intent on countering China. They've gotten together again, which 131 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 3: I think is a good thing. 132 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and and those right, clearly generations go back 133 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: with regard to that in what Japan did during the 134 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 4: Second World War. But they both look at each other, 135 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 4: and they look at China as exontential threat to both 136 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 4: of them, and so they're they're gonna they're going to 137 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 4: work together, both of them, with the support of the 138 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 4: United States as long as you know, we're in the 139 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 4: room at the same time. And you know, I'm sure 140 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 4: there's emotions that get get in play every once in 141 00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 4: a while, but fundamentally they recognize where the enemy is. 142 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 2: Finally, the Taliban has been celebrating this week their two 143 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 2: year anniversary of having taken back over Afghanistan after our withdrawal. 144 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: Any thoughts on this two year anniversary, Yeah, I'll. 145 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 4: Tell you it's still through the military community. There's been 146 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 4: no real after action report this because the administration is 147 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 4: basically kept it under wraps. They recognize how bad it is. 148 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 4: We saw the parents testify in front of Congress. We 149 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 4: didn't see any the military was not punished that Sentcom commander. 150 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 4: I hold him responsible for the depths of those marines there. 151 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 4: They never should have been anywhere near civilians in the 152 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 4: last few days. There's no difference between Afghanistan between what 153 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 4: happened there and what happened in Vietnam from a historical perspective, 154 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 4: with the only difference is fifty eight thousand body bags 155 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 4: that came home in the sixties and seventies. And if 156 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 4: we didn't learn the lesson, and hopefully we'll learn it 157 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 4: in the future, it. 158 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 3: Is remarkable and disgusting that mountability is so vital. It's 159 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: it's irreplaceable on the battlefield and in maneuvers, and as 160 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 3: you get further up the chain, there's less and less accountability. 161 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 3: It's just it's it's angering. 162 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 4: We had it during the World Wars, but really since 163 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 4: then we haven't seen it. And you know, we didn't 164 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 4: assign a general officer, for example, in Afghanistan, to say 165 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 4: go win this war. Instead, we rotated them out. It 166 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 4: was kind of like a you know, a human resources 167 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 4: you know they got this guy got the experience. Let 168 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 4: this guy get the experience. I mean, we fought all 169 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 4: these different wars. Every time we got a new commander there, 170 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 4: and that didn't happen in World War One, World War two, 171 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 4: we put a person in place, we put a general 172 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 4: officer in places to go win that war. And when 173 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: they didn't, they got fired and we put somebody out 174 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 4: there that can do the job. 175 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 3: Mike Lyons on the line, Mike always enlightening. Thanks a 176 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 3: million for the time. Good to talk to you, great. 177 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 4: Guys, Thanks for having me. See soon. Armstrong and Getty