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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast, so you can hear

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Speaker 1: the chatter. It's for the crowd.

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Speaker 2: We have a big chant, a big chance to make

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Speaker 2: it a lot question the big bucks three pointer?

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Speaker 1: Fine, what a man?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, brought to you by

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Speaker 2: FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Speaker 3: My name is Matt Moore.

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Speaker 2: I'm the senior NBA writer at the Action Network bringing

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Speaker 2: you today's very special episode, our Western Conference NBA post

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Speaker 2: All Star break Futures episode. Brandon Anderson and I are

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Speaker 2: gonna breakdown everything that you need to know to bet

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Speaker 2: this last part of the NBA season hang into the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: Playoffs just a little over fifty days away, so it's

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Speaker 2: coming up here. We've got breakdowns for you of each

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Speaker 2: team in the Western Conference, along with futures for making

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, making the play in conference title odds, in totals,

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Speaker 2: all sorts of great stuff. Make sure to check it

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Speaker 2: out and make sure to check out the award winning

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Speaker 2: Action Network app, the best way for you to track

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Speaker 2: your picks, get up the second information and where the

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Speaker 2: bets and money are coming in on You find all

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Speaker 2: this great content in the Action Network App. Today we're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about the Western conference and where we think

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Speaker 2: those are going to end up at this one. The

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Speaker 2: question Brandon is very interesting to me about whether or

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Speaker 2: not the West is quote unquote wide open, and about

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Speaker 2: like what's going to happen from a regular season perspective.

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Speaker 2: I think we're going to be in a pretty firm

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Speaker 2: alignment here. I don't think people really realize what the

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Speaker 2: picture actually looks like. Playoffs are a different matter, and

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Speaker 2: we'll get to that as we go along. Let's start

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Speaker 2: by reminding everyone that you need to download the award

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Speaker 2: winning Action Network app. In there you get green Dot Daily,

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Speaker 2: So you go on the video section every day Green

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Speaker 2: Dot Daily. It is that you're betting agenda. You want

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Speaker 2: to find out who to bet on NASCAR, they got it.

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Speaker 2: You want to know who to bet on for college basketball?

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Speaker 1: They got it.

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Speaker 2: You want Brandon talk about futures, NFL and NBA, He's

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Speaker 2: on there. You want to be talking about best bets

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Speaker 2: for NBA and all the news I'm hearing around the league.

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Speaker 1: It's in there. Go check out the Action Network app.

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Speaker 2: Check out Green Dot Daily as well as you can

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Speaker 2: find all of our picksar futures. I just put in

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Speaker 2: a rack them today, not going to cover it today,

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Speaker 2: but I put it in a Rack Them Awards bet

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Speaker 2: that we talked about on Monday with Albert. Go check

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Speaker 2: that out in the Action Network app. Right, and let's

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Speaker 2: start the top here. The Denver Nuggets currently have a

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Speaker 2: win total fifty six and a half. Who one of

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Speaker 2: our best bets for the preseason was the Denver Nuggets

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Speaker 2: over forty nine and a half. They look set to

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Speaker 2: absolutely breeze past that one. I've already started counting that

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Speaker 2: one as a green check mark in my and my

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Speaker 2: spreadsheets and whatnot. They are minus four thousand to be

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Speaker 2: the one seed. They are plus three hundred to win

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Speaker 2: the Western Conference. They are not the favorites to win

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Speaker 2: the Western Conference at FanDuel, let's go ahead and start

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Speaker 2: with what where we think they're going to end up

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Speaker 2: as far as a record wise. You have them projected

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Speaker 2: for fifty three wins. Your range is fifty two to

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Speaker 2: fifty seven, so a little bit of a stronger range

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Speaker 2: under I have them at fifty four point eight. So

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Speaker 2: this number, surprisingly, actually, I think we both kind of

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Speaker 2: agree fifty six and a half is as a little strong,

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Speaker 2: even for as good as this team has been.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think it's it's really has nothing to

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Speaker 3: do with the team, right, it's all about they just

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Speaker 3: still need the wins. They don't need to get to

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Speaker 3: fifty seven or fifty eight, or they're not going to

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Speaker 3: care about all. We're a sixty win team. Really, really,

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Speaker 3: Nikola Jokic is going to want that sixty win team

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Speaker 3: on the old resume. That's the Nikola Jokic that we've

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Speaker 3: been seeing. Like, it's just I don't think has anything

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Speaker 3: to do with the profile. We like their profile. We

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Speaker 3: like the Nuggets. We've talked about them all year. We

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Speaker 3: did in the preseason. Jamal Murray is back and breaking out.

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Speaker 3: Everything is good. We like them. I just don't think

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Speaker 3: that has anything to do with the over under because

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Speaker 3: they're not getting a push from anybody. Memphis is six

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Speaker 3: wins back in the wins column right now, and everyone

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Speaker 3: else is much further. There's nobody here. So you're when

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Speaker 3: you're minus four thousand to be the one seed, you

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Speaker 3: are like you're the one seed. That's it. We're a wrap.

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Speaker 3: I don't remember how long it's been since we had

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Speaker 3: a rapped one seed at the All Star break. Like

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Speaker 3: that's wild. We are a ways out here, but if

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Speaker 3: you are the one seed, I don't know. I guess

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Speaker 3: as I'm saying that, the one thing that could matter

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Speaker 3: is Denver has to believe at this point that they

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Speaker 3: have a chance to make the finals. They certainly would

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Speaker 3: like to make the finals. Does Denver care enough about

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Speaker 3: having more wins than Boston or Milwaukee or somebody like

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Speaker 3: that to earn a possible game seven NBA Finals in Denver,

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Speaker 3: that's the only real reason you push for wins.

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Speaker 1: They would tell you no.

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Speaker 2: But there's been a couple of comments on the side

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Speaker 2: that make it sound like they would welcome the opportunity

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Speaker 2: to secure a home court throughout the playoffs, including the finals.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the team has championship aspirations. The team is

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Speaker 2: not in like just happy to be here, Like if

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Speaker 2: they'll make the finals, it's a failure. They want to

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Speaker 2: win the whole thing.

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Speaker 1: I would say that.

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Speaker 2: Let me put it this way, if it comes into

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Speaker 2: that last night of the season, if they win, they're

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Speaker 2: the one seed overall, they'll do it like they'll play

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Speaker 2: guys and they'll win.

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Speaker 1: Mostly or they'll try to win rather.

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Speaker 2: One thing that I will kind of say here as

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Speaker 2: far as the number goes, so I have them projected

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Speaker 2: at fifty four point eight without an adjustment on their number,

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Speaker 2: and if you basically look at them, they were so

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Speaker 2: bad defensively the first month of the half of the

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Speaker 2: season that it has absolutely poisoned their numbers since then

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Speaker 2: and they haven't been able to dig out of it.

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Speaker 1: Like they're finally starting to climb into the top fifteen.

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Speaker 2: It's been two and a half months of great play

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Speaker 2: and they are just now climbing.

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Speaker 1: Out of that.

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Speaker 2: December seventh was when they lost to the Mavericks at home.

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Speaker 2: That was the turning point of their season. After that

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Speaker 2: was when they kind of got their shit together and

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Speaker 2: started to play better, and as evidenced by since that time,

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Speaker 2: since December eighth, the Nuggets are third in offense at

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Speaker 2: one eighteen point eight and they are sixth in defense,

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Speaker 2: which that's what most people are going to be would

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Speaker 2: be like, whoa, because they were so bad early and

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Speaker 2: they've been so good since now, a lot of that's

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Speaker 2: home games, et cetera. I would just say that like

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Speaker 2: if I gave them a bump, if I gave them

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Speaker 2: a bump, basically being like that's not who they are

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Speaker 2: right now, Like I'm keeping it stable for betting purposes,

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Speaker 2: because I'm like, look, some of these games were were

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Speaker 2: at home, and they might not be as good.

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Speaker 1: But let's say I give them a push of a point.

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Speaker 2: Let's give them up a point, because this really is

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Speaker 2: the difference in how good that they've been. Now I

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Speaker 2: get up to fifty five point six as a projected number,

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Speaker 2: and now we're kind of scraping up against it. But

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Speaker 2: even if I give them a point of differential, and

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Speaker 2: they have been without some guys, like some of these

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Speaker 2: were like losses where Joker didn't play, and that's going

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Speaker 2: to impact their number, I would.

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Speaker 1: Say that this is a stay away.

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Speaker 2: It's close enough, Like I think Denver could win fifty

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Speaker 2: seven pretty easily. That wouldn't necessarily surprise, Like they have

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Speaker 2: twenty three games remaining, and so that's what sixteen and

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Speaker 2: seven to get there. That's very doable for this Denver team,

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Speaker 2: Like they could absolutely do that. I think it's a

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Speaker 2: stay away as far as the win total goes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a stay away. We talked about

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Speaker 3: the process a little bit more in the Eastern episode,

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Speaker 3: but I have them. My number for them is about

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Speaker 3: fifty five and a half and I just kind of

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Speaker 3: manually adjust it down just based on what are they

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Speaker 3: going to push for, Like, if you're around fifty five,

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's quite enough to be in arranged

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Speaker 3: to win that last game to catch Boston, Milwaukee, whoever

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Speaker 3: it is. Maybe you don't catch Boston, but maybe it's

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Speaker 3: still you could catch Milwaukee, and maybe that alone is

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Speaker 3: still like, yeah, well maybe we play them in the finals.

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Speaker 3: Let's still get that home court. I don't know the mentality.

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Speaker 3: I don't need money on it. We've already you and

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Speaker 3: I already have our Denver position here. We're going to

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Speaker 3: be looking I'm sure at more than just regular season here.

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Speaker 3: I think we move past that point with this team.

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Speaker 3: To me, the only Denver position that I'm thinking about

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Speaker 3: really and we're not doing really awards on this, but

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Speaker 3: I think Denver minus four thousand to be the one seed.

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Speaker 3: They're the one seed that again reinforces that. I just

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Speaker 3: think MVP is a wrap. I think we're gonna find

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Speaker 3: other people to talk about, and somebody's gonna make a

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Speaker 3: push and we're gonna do the thing. But Denver coasting

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Speaker 3: to the one seed, I just don't know who else

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Speaker 3: is going to have the case to take it away

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Speaker 3: from Yokij barring basically a season any injury at this point.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise I just I don't need to play it. I

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Speaker 3: would lean under if I had to do a number

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Speaker 3: on it. But you're right, there's no real value or

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Speaker 3: incentive for me to need this in my portfolio.

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Speaker 2: The narrative is that this course is definitely trying to

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Speaker 2: put a scare into voters right now, like that's the

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Speaker 2: new thing is like, are you really going to vote

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Speaker 2: a guy with no NBA titles a three time MVP?

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Speaker 1: It's like, well, what if you want? What if you

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Speaker 1: won the title this year? Buddy won't? How do you know?

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Speaker 1: I just do? Okay?

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Speaker 2: How do you vote on something using information from after

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Speaker 2: the event about an a war that's based off of

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Speaker 2: prior events?

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Speaker 1: You just do? We know who's a real hooper?

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Speaker 2: Like it's these conversations are the absolute dumbest, and every

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Speaker 2: year I have to deal with them.

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Speaker 1: No, I'll say that every year I choose a deal

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Speaker 1: with them.

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Speaker 3: And should but I do. We're part of it. We

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Speaker 3: are literally being part of it right now. But it

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Speaker 3: is what it is. It's gonna happen. We're gonna have

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Speaker 3: the conversation because we like to talk about it, and

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Speaker 3: you and I are part of it, and we're going

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Speaker 3: to talk about it all too. I think at the

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Speaker 3: end of the day, the odds are gonna swing whichever way.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure I need to put my money on

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Speaker 3: it now, because I think maybe the odds dip at

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Speaker 3: some point when inevitably we have the media week for

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Speaker 3: Luca or Tatum or wow embat here he comes, somebody's

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Speaker 3: gonna have that week again. We have too much time

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Speaker 3: left on the season to fill media airspace, including us.

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Speaker 3: Someone's gonna make a push and there will be another

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Speaker 3: spot later. I just think at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: when the votes come in, it's gonna be yokicch.

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Speaker 2: The Memphis Grizzlies, who I have hated on extensively, it's

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Speaker 2: looking pretty good. Took the under at fifty one and

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Speaker 2: a half, took the under at fifty and a half.

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Speaker 2: Those bets are all looking pretty solid. The over runner

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Speaker 2: on the Grizzlies right now forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: They're plus seven hundred to win the Western Conference. We

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Speaker 2: should talk about the Western Conference number for the Grizzlies too,

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Speaker 2: but let's wait and we'll talk about in comparison with

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Speaker 2: the Suns. We'll talk about that in a second. The

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Speaker 2: Grizzlies are plus eleven hundred to get the one seed

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Speaker 2: if you think that they're going to absolutely finish on

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Speaker 2: a tear. Currently, you have the Memphis Grizzlies at fifty wins,

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Speaker 2: your projection is between forty nine and fifty two, and

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Speaker 2: I have them a little bit lower. I have them

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Speaker 2: at forty eight point three my numbers. I have said

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Speaker 2: this consistently, are never going to like them because they

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Speaker 2: can't score in the half court. They continue to be terrible.

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Speaker 2: Luke Nard is not going to fix that. That's going

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Speaker 2: to be an issue for them going forward. I'm always

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Speaker 2: going to be lower on them. I would just note

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Speaker 2: that I was lower on them this season when it

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Speaker 2: looked like they were going to roll up to a

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Speaker 2: fifty five win pace, and I kept betting the under,

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Speaker 2: and here we are, like, if there's one team, then

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Speaker 2: I feel like I have a pretty good feel on

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Speaker 2: all the way to the Memphis Grizzlies. I think I got

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Speaker 2: a pretty good slid luck on this. I was surprised

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Speaker 2: to see you being higher on them at fifty with

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Speaker 2: a forty nine to fifty two. But you do have

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Speaker 2: a best bet on this team, it turns out.

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Speaker 3: I do, yeah, And I think part of it too is, look,

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Speaker 3: we just victory allowed ourselves on Denver. We gotta take

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Speaker 3: the other set on this. Both of us were out

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Speaker 3: on Memphis coming into the year. I was betting against

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Speaker 3: them in the division. I think I was on their

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Speaker 3: under We just I missed on it. It wasn't I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna stop you. No, we weren't, sir, Okay, that's why

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Speaker 3: I switched to eye. I could see from your face

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Speaker 3: that it needed to be an eye. You were in

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Speaker 3: on them. I remind me, who, No, No, you weren't wrong, Brandon.

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Speaker 2: This is cherished these moments as I have to tell

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Speaker 2: you that if Zion Williamson doesn't get hurt, they are

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Speaker 2: winning the division.

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Speaker 1: We were right, we were right.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that's fair, that's fair. But the if Zion doesn't

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Speaker 3: get hurt as part of the cap and why the

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Speaker 3: number was long, it's all fair. I would say this

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Speaker 3: Grizzlies right now are not basically on pace to be

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Speaker 3: a fifty win team. That's good. That's a good team.

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Speaker 3: Fifty wins is not a two seed in almost any

264
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Speaker 3: normal year. So be careful as you're like, oh wow,

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Speaker 3: the Grizzlies true contenders. Two seeds like those, those are

266
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Speaker 3: not all the same thing. Not all two seeds are

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Speaker 3: created equal. This two seed in the West is not

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Speaker 3: the two seeds in the east. Those are not the

269
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Speaker 3: same sort of profiles. So notice the win number. Here's

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Speaker 3: what I like about the Grizzli is one of my

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Speaker 3: best bets right now heading into the second half. Well,

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Speaker 3: quote unquote, we are in the home stretch. Now you

273
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Speaker 3: can bet the Grizzlies to be exactly the two seed.

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Speaker 3: That's minus one to fifty. That's an implied to sixty percent.

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Speaker 3: I like it. I don't see them moving off the

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Speaker 3: two seed. Here's the profile. Grizzlies are six wins behind

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Speaker 3: the Nuggets for the one seed. We just said. The

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Speaker 3: Nuggets are minus four thousand to be the one seed,

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Speaker 3: so they're not moving up. The Grizzlies are also six

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Speaker 3: losses fewer than the Suns and the Clippers, the two

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Speaker 3: teams that ostensibly would have to catch them from behind. Now,

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Speaker 3: of course anyone could catch them. Still, the bottom could

283
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Speaker 3: totally fall out. But wouldn't the bottom have fallen out

284
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Speaker 3: when jow got hurt for a while, or when Jaron

285
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Speaker 3: Jackson didn't play the start of the season, which was

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Speaker 3: part of my cap. But they found a way. Here's

287
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Speaker 3: santi All Dama doing stuff. Desmond Baine has been out

288
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Speaker 3: a while. They got more Dylan of Brooks and place

289
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Speaker 3: at Desmond Baine. I don't like that. Didn't matter. They

290
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Speaker 3: won all the games anyway. I think their profile is

291
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Speaker 3: probably better than what a lot of the metrics say.

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Speaker 3: Their profile for winning games in the regular season is

293
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Speaker 3: better than what your model says, because your model just

294
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Speaker 3: doesn't like the Grizzlies and they keep winning. Now, we're

295
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Speaker 3: gonna have a different Grizziest conversation when we get to April.

296
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Speaker 3: We are not gonna be so glowing about them. But

297
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Speaker 3: right now, six wins the Denver, six losses to everyone else.

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Speaker 3: There's twenty five games left. That is a twelve game

299
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Speaker 3: margin that they can just sit in anywhere in that

300
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Speaker 3: mo four game winning streak. Who cares, you made up

301
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Speaker 3: one game on the Nuggets. Oh, five game losing streak

302
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 3: doesn't matter. Still, three or four losses away from all

303
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Speaker 3: the other teams below them, I'll drink the juice. You know,

304
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Speaker 3: I don't like doing the minus one fifty bets, So

305
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Speaker 3: if if I'm taking it, I got to really like it.

306
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Speaker 3: And I just think one in two seeds out West,

307
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Speaker 3: we're done.

308
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Speaker 2: I think I'm probably gonna bet this as a way

309
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Speaker 2: to get out of the Pelican's Division.

310
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna hedge. This is like a way to basically

311
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Speaker 1: hedge out of that because that's gonna that's that's.

312
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Speaker 2: Gonna lose because of freaking injuries. It was Brandan Ingram

313
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Speaker 2: hadn't better.

314
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Speaker 3: I will. I do want to say.

315
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Speaker 2: Something though, because you're being a little disrespectful to one team.

316
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Speaker 2: You're like, there's six ahead of the Clippers and the Suns.

317
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Speaker 2: There's no one else around them, and there's a little

318
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Speaker 2: beam sticking out of the out of the corner of

319
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Speaker 2: the map as the Sacramento Kings are just three games

320
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Speaker 2: back in on the lost column, Like are you worried

321
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Speaker 2: at all? Like look at Memphis does screw around or

322
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Speaker 2: if joh gets hurt or I mean most people are

323
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Speaker 2: like they play without jaw if Baying gets hurt or

324
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Speaker 2: Jaron gets.

325
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Speaker 1: Hurt and they fall off a little bit.

326
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Speaker 2: Is there any concern that the Kings could maybe like

327
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Speaker 2: the Kings were being chased like hell from the Phoenix

328
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Speaker 2: Suns with Kevin Durant. Now, are you a little bit

329
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Speaker 2: worried that maybe they could catch? So?

330
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Speaker 3: Are we doing the Kings? Now? Are we going to

331
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Speaker 3: do the King's section right now? Because I got more

332
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Speaker 3: on the Kings. I just want to know how how

333
00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 3: into this am I going? Is this King's time?

334
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 2: No, So let's go ahead and we'll wait and we'll

335
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 2: come back to that question. But I want you to

336
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 2: I want you to think about it.

337
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 3: Here's the short answer. The short answer is I went

338
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,360
Speaker 3: into this exercise prepping for the second part of the

339
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,320
Speaker 3: season thinking, oh man, the Kings. Boy, aren't they a

340
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 3: team to start fading? They are such an obvious fade candidate.

341
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:49,880
Speaker 3: And then I dug into it and actually, now I

342
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 3: really like the Kings, and I have a whole bunch

343
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Speaker 3: of ways. I'm betting the Kings, and I like the

344
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 3: Kings overs and I'm in on the Kings. And now

345
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Speaker 3: here you are saying, hey, Brandon, you know who you

346
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 3: forgot about the team you really like and have like

347
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 3: five bets to tell people about. So that's interesting. I

348
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 3: really truly didn't consider them chasing down the Grizzlies. It

349
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 3: would be high comedy to me if all of my

350
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:14,880
Speaker 3: Kings and Grizzlies seeding bets somehow flopped because I liked

351
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:16,680
Speaker 3: all the teams. I liked the right way, but I

352
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 3: didn't like the Kings quite enough and they passed them. Anyway,

353
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 3: we'll come back to them. Let's do what are you doing?

354
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 3: Suns are Clippers and I.

355
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Speaker 2: Actually Suns, because we'll talk about Suns, we'll talk about

356
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 2: the We're gonna just like lump a lot of this

357
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Speaker 2: in which there's basically we're gonna use the Suns as

358
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 2: a leadoff for Western Conference title futures.

359
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 1: Is how we're gonna kind of structure this. All right,

360
00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 1: let's do.

361
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 2: The Suns are at forty five and a half on

362
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,080
Speaker 2: the wind total. Currently the Phoenix Suns are thirty two

363
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 2: and twenty eight, So I'm gonna do the math in

364
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 2: my head on what that means.

365
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 3: Twenty two games left, so they have to go fourteen

366
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 3: and eight to hit the over.

367
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,240
Speaker 1: I have a whole spreadsheet. You just did it in

368
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,920
Speaker 1: your head. I hate it when you do that. Get

369
00:16:58,920 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: they have to go.

370
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,960
Speaker 3: We against it again, fourteen and eight to hit the over.

371
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 1: Okay, fourteen and eight to hit the over.

372
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 2: By the way their preseason win total, they have to

373
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 2: go twenty one and one to hit the hit the over.

374
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Speaker 3: Good luck.

375
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 1: So Kevin Durant coming in obviously a big deal.

376
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 2: They are the favorites to win the Western Conference, no surprise,

377
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:17,919
Speaker 2: just with you add Kevin Durant to a team that

378
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 2: wins the finals. Two years ago, they've been they were

379
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 2: not healthy this year. They're plus two twenty to win

380
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 2: the Western Conference as a favorite.

381
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 1: Currently at shortest odds at.

382
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 2: FanDuel, they are plus sixty six hundred to get the

383
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 2: one seed if needed.

384
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:31,920
Speaker 1: They're just basically not gonna lose again.

385
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,760
Speaker 2: That's what you would basically need, is like they don't

386
00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 2: lose again, or they lose like four games.

387
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 3: So now four might be too much. They might just

388
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 3: literally have to not lose again. Like that. You do

389
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 3: the thing that I'm gonna do. The thing that you do.

390
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 3: There's not that many games left a year behind. Buy

391
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,640
Speaker 3: six games or eight games or whatever. It's real hard

392
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 3: to make up that ground because guess what, the Nuggets

393
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 3: aren't gonna go o in twenty two the rest of

394
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Speaker 3: the way either.

395
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, the the uh.

396
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,959
Speaker 2: By the way to put this in perspective, the Nuggets

397
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 2: magic number to finish with a better record than the

398
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 2: Suns is fourteen.

399
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:03,320
Speaker 1: That's before typebreaker.

400
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: So like the if the Nuggets, if the Suns lose

401
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,199
Speaker 2: four games total the rest of the way, the Nuggets

402
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:12,680
Speaker 2: would only have to go like ten and thirteen.

403
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, secure that they're not happening. Yeah, they're gonna finish

404
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:16,520
Speaker 1: with the better record.

405
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 2: But tell me what you think about the forty five

406
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 2: and a half projection on the win total? You currently

407
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 2: have them right on the dot at forty five. Forty

408
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 2: three to forty seven is their range. I currently have

409
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:32,120
Speaker 2: them at forty five point six, so I have them

410
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:33,520
Speaker 2: right at this number as well.

411
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,239
Speaker 1: What do you think about the win total? And then

412
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 1: we'll talk about.

413
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 3: The top I think our numbers tell the story there.

414
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 3: We'll keep it brief. It's a pass. It's a pass.

415
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 3: I don't need my money on it. This is not

416
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: a team that I think cares about regular season. The

417
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 3: goal for this team is integrate Kevin Durant, get him

418
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 3: and Chris and Devin healthy for the playoffs. That's it.

419
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 3: Whatever path it happens, to be sure we're in the

420
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 3: last game of the Year. We can bump up to this,

421
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 3: get a home game. We could play sorry the Kings

422
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 3: in the first round. I think teams are going to

423
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 3: be angling for that in this three to six seed range. Sure,

424
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 3: we'll try for a game. Otherwise, they just want to

425
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,680
Speaker 3: get there. They just want to get healthy to May

426
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: and try to make a run. I don't want anything

427
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 3: to do with Ray. We see some stuff for this team.

428
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 2: I have them manually upgraded three and a half points

429
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 2: off of their raw number. So that's basically a two

430
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: and a half point bump for Kevin Durant over this

431
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,360
Speaker 2: last quarter of games, and then giving them about one

432
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: point two for the fact that they were without Devin

433
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 2: and they basically fell off the map with injuries for

434
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 2: a month and a half. You can make the argument

435
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,920
Speaker 2: that's actually a little bit light. Like I wouldn't mind

436
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 2: if you're like, I think this should probably be four

437
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 2: and a half. I would not be like that's crazy.

438
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 2: I would be like, all right, that's that's that's okay.

439
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: We could probably bump that up, but it still don't

440
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: have to get me in the over. But that's like

441
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 2: just an idea of where my head's at the injuries

442
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 2: through the month of December and January, combined with that

443
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: in Kevin Durant, I got to a three point seven bump.

444
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,679
Speaker 2: Much of that is because, like, if this was a

445
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 2: earlier in the season, I would probably be more aggressive,

446
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 2: but there's only so many games left, so I can

447
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: only give them something much of a bump.

448
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 1: But I think on a game to game met like.

449
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 2: Also, I would just say this like a three and

450
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 2: a half where I've got them on the on the rating,

451
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: I have them as a half point favorite versus Denver

452
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 2: on neutral court.

453
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: That's to give you an idea of where they landed at.

454
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,880
Speaker 2: They're a half point better than Denver on neutral court,

455
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 2: which to me sounds about right. Like they should probably

456
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 2: be favored in that series given the talent, I will

457
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 2: probably be Denver, but that's like where I have them located.

458
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 1: We agree.

459
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 3: Let me clarify that though, because I think though, if

460
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 3: you have them half a point favorite on a neutral court,

461
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 3: they should not be favored in that series because Denver

462
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,439
Speaker 3: will be home court in the series, and I think

463
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 3: that's interesting. So yeah, I think it's interesting. I think

464
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 3: the number is about right, but Denver is real like yeaheah,

465
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 3: but thank got Kevin Durant. Yeah, well, Denver has Nikola Jokic,

466
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 3: who has been better than Kevin Durant for three years

467
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 3: and counting right now. I'm sorry you have to find

468
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: out this way. Nicole Jokic is just as good and

469
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 3: more impactful. And the thing we say about Durant, how

470
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 3: I don't know does he really elevate his teammates to

471
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 3: make him all better? Guess who I know does that really? Well?

472
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 3: Nicola Jokic pretty much elevates the teammates quite well. So

473
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 3: I think it's interesting that they're that close still, even

474
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: after trading the entire world to get Kevin Durant, they

475
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: still are only slightly barely ahead on a neutral court,

476
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 3: and they're not going to be on a neutral court.

477
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 3: Denver is going to have home court in the series.

478
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:45,360
Speaker 3: So let's talk about then West odds. Because we've done

479
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 3: this a little bit, We're gonna keep doing it. I'm

480
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 3: sure the whole way. Should we start by bearing Memphis

481
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 3: in this conversation because I know neither one of us

482
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 3: is going to be in on them, right Yeah, I mean, look.

483
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:57,919
Speaker 2: If anything else, you'd listen to this podcast because you

484
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 2: pay attention to betting, and you can think what you

485
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 2: want about the market. But I think it's very rare

486
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 2: that you're going to be a smart, educated person about

487
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: the market and think that it's is Like we will

488
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 2: say times when we're like this number is wrong, Like

489
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: I just don't agree with this number. I think that

490
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: you should start with most things from an assumption that

491
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: the numbers are accurate from some perspective, like you can

492
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: get there. Memphis is plus seven hundred to win the

493
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: Western Conference, compared to plus three hundred for Denver, plus

494
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: two twenty for the Suns, plus five hundred for the Clippers.

495
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 2: The Grizzlies are between the Clippers and the Mavericks for odds,

496
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 2: Like that's where they've put them, and they can't put

497
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 2: them any lower because of their seating. So just like

498
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 2: they're also probably going to get the worst bracket imaginable,

499
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 2: it's very likely that they're going to have an absolute

500
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 2: like both Brandoni's projections essentially kind of have them in

501
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 2: a spot where it's pretty likely, Like I think it's

502
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,959
Speaker 2: very likely that they're going to get the winner of

503
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: like a Sun's Clippers or Suns Warriors three.

504
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 1: To six best of luck. So yeah, like I'm willing to.

505
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 3: Go ahead after by the way, after getting the best

506
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 3: team out of the play in, who's gonna be pretty good.

507
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 3: Somebody out of the play in at the seventh seed

508
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: is going to be good. And then if you get

509
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 3: through that team and then get through these Sons, Warriors, Clippers,

510
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 3: whatever team, good luck. Now you made it to the

511
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: Nuggets and the conference finals. Like the Grizzlies could absolutely

512
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 3: win a series. I think they're a very matchup dependent team.

513
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 3: But there are so many different good teams in the West.

514
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: To see them winning against three of them in a

515
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 3: series right now, I guess we're just back to the

516
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 3: old Memphis disrespect because I just I don't even want

517
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: it at seven hundred, I don't know if it's their number,

518
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 3: but I certainly would not play it. I just don't

519
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: really believe in them having a chance. I think if

520
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: you had to say, okay, in the West, who are

521
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: your four Western semi finalists, I think you would go

522
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 3: Denver Phoenix Clippers, and then you'd argue about who the

523
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 3: fourth one is, but you'd argue about like multiple other teams,

524
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 3: and then someone would be like, what about the Grizzlies.

525
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: You be like, oh, yeah, well, I don't know, maybe

526
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: if they got the right matchup. That's kind of where

527
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 3: they're at in the hierarchy to me, and I think

528
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 3: that's telling.

529
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 2: So we have we touched with this earlier. I have

530
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 2: them the Suns is a half point favorite on neutral court.

531
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 2: They'll be in Denver. Denver is ungodly at home. I'm

532
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 2: just telling you, Like I watched that team every night

533
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: at home. I've seen good home teams. I have very

534
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 2: rarely seen any team, Like, I don't know how you're

535
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: gonna beat them. Like, the key with it with the

536
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 2: Nuggets is you're gonna have to beat them at least

537
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 2: once at home.

538
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: And hold court and holds a curve. Like that's what

539
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to do. You gotta be them least once.

540
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 2: If not twice, in Denver, and you gotta hold your

541
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: hold your own home court.

542
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: It's tough, man.

543
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 2: They're so freaking good at home, so obviously, like I

544
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: think that they should be the favorites here because they're

545
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 2: gonna have home court over Phoenix.

546
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: I go back and.

547
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 2: Forth on the value for them to win the Western Conference.

548
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 2: At plus three hundred, I bet them at longer numbers

549
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 2: after the initial Kevin Durant trade because the market overreacted,

550
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: like that was all of our takeaway. We did a

551
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: round table, you, me and Joe, and we were all like,

552
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 2: the market overreacted.

553
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: It will move back the other direction.

554
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: That's exactly what happened is everyone rushed in like the

555
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: markets were like, oh god, Kevin Durant, it took all

556
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: that money.

557
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: And then we're like and then.

558
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 2: The sharp beetters were like, well, we'll take Denver in

559
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: a longer number.

560
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: Thanks, Like they're very good.

561
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 2: I think you can probably wait and bet them in

562
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: certain series. I don't think you need to, Like, I

563
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: don't think the best time to bet Denver's gonna before

564
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: the playoffs because their number will shorten once they secure

565
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 2: the one seed. Like this number factors in the uncertainty

566
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: of them winning the one seed, even if we're talking

567
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: about how unlikely we think it is, that uncertainty has

568
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 2: to be part of it, and as well as injuries

569
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: and other factors there. So I don't think it's there.

570
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 2: Probably the best time to win it is like if

571
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: Denver goes down, like does lose one at home in

572
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 2: a second round series, like Let's say it's Dallas in

573
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 2: a second round series in the four or five, and

574
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: they get out of it and they face Denver in

575
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: a one to four matchup, is game two at home,

576
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: Dallas has home court. Everyone's going Luca Mania. That's probably

577
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 2: the best time to bet Denver. I don't think that

578
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 2: now is the best time to bet Denver. I don't

579
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: think that Denver's odds should be longer than Phoenix's. But

580
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 2: I don't think that Denver that the time to bet

581
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: Denver is now.

582
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think I'm basically with you and that we

583
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: like Denver. We're probably both going to look for spots

584
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 3: to back Denver at some point in the future. I

585
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 3: don't hate it right now. I just think you missed

586
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: the window. The window was right after the Durant trade

587
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 3: when we told you to bet on it. Now the

588
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 3: odds are shortening in a little, but I still think

589
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 3: if you had to pick one, I'm definitely choosing the

590
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: Denver number, not the Phoenix number. I just don't know

591
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 3: that you need to choose either of them. Just because

592
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 3: one number is bad doesn't mean the other one is good. Denver,

593
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: I think two, you know, if you wait and now

594
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 3: Denver is, Oh, look, they're the one seed again with

595
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: the grizz of the two seat. Like if the standings

596
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 3: basically reflect what we're seeing right now, the odds won't

597
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 3: have shifted a whole lot. But the difference is now

598
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 3: it's sick weeks from now. Nikole Jokic still healthy and

599
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 3: looking awesome, Jamal Murray still looking like an All star.

600
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: Not early season Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Junior. Wow, he's

601
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 3: on fire right now. Like you get all the extra

602
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 3: information of hey, yeah, I actually still want to back

603
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 3: this team six weeks from now, Well did you get

604
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 3: it at plus two to sixteen ounce to the plus

605
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 3: three hundred? Maybe I'm willing to sacrifice that margin, that

606
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 3: forty cents on the dollar for all that extra information

607
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: and health and security of seeing where we're at. To me,

608
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 3: Denver is fine, but we'll get a better number. The

609
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 3: key takeaway for me is that the Suns are a

610
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 3: bad number and you should not and cannot bet the

611
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 3: Suns right now. I think the Suns are being priced

612
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 3: as though they have a chance to be the one seed,

613
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 3: and we just explained why that's almost certainly not going

614
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 3: to happen. And I think because of that, because they're

615
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: going to end up the three or the four or

616
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 3: five even they might have three road series to get

617
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 3: out of the West. That's possible. And if that's the case,

618
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 3: Kevin Durant or not, they're gonna have to lengthen the

619
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: number a little. Bet. I just I can't see making

620
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 3: them the favorite, and certainly at that number right now.

621
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 3: I think not betting Phoenix West is the big takeaway

622
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 3: for me.

623
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 2: I think the time to bet Phoenix is gonna be

624
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: three weeks from now. They'll have lost some games and

625
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: they'll be like, Okay, they're not.

626
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 1: I will set this way.

627
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 2: If you think that this is the super team, if

628
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 2: you think that this team is going to be as

629
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 2: good as the twenty seventeen Warriors with Katie, if you

630
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 2: think we're looking at that, if that's what you come to,

631
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: and like, I don't blame you for reaching there. It's

632
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: a little bit of a reach given what Golden State

633
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: had alread accomplished, right, they were a championship team already,

634
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: but like this Sun's team, give or take McHale and

635
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: cam did matter. But this Sun's team did go to

636
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 2: the finals two years ago. And now you add Kevin

637
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: Durant essentially to a team that went to the finals

638
00:28:58,760 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 2: two years ago.

639
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: I understand. So, like, I get it.

640
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: If that's your position, if that's how you feel, then

641
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 2: you should bet this now. I don't think that they'll

642
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 2: I think they'll be really good. I think they'll be

643
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 2: very dangerous. I even would say that, like, in a vacuum,

644
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: outside of my ratings, I would say that the Sun

645
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: should probably be favorites to win the Western Conference. Like,

646
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 2: I'm not like it's ridiculous that the Sons are the favorites.

647
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: No, I get it.

648
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: They have Kevin Durant and the team that went to

649
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: the finals two years ago, right, Like my numbers say

650
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: that they shouldn't be the favorite. But that's different from

651
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 2: not understanding a narrative kind of concept. And so I

652
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: think in three weeks they'll have lost some games, they'll

653
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: have won some you'll have a good sense of who

654
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: they are. They'll have dropped a little bit because they'll

655
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: be like, oh, well, they can't get the one seed,

656
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 2: they're probably not going to get the two, you know, will.

657
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: Drop them down.

658
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: And now when they're like plus three fifty or something,

659
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: you can get a better number. I don't think you

660
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 2: want to wait to the playoffs. I think that they

661
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 2: might just roll through. It might be one of those

662
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: situations where they just destroy everyone. Could very well be

663
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,959
Speaker 2: that this team could be awesome. I'm very open to that,

664
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: but I think, like, and listen to Buckets, We'll tell

665
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 2: you there will come probably a point in the next

666
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: four weeks where we are on the show being like, now,

667
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: this is it. This is when you want to get Phoenix,

668
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 2: this is the bi Loo opportunity.

669
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think I'll just add to that saying

670
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 3: I think you're a little more optimistic on this team

671
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 3: than I am, because I found myself like kind of

672
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 3: being like, well about four times during that whole thing.

673
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 3: I'm not ready to go ahead and put these Kevin

674
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: Durant's sons anywhere in the conversation with any of those

675
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: Warriors teams. I know you didn't say they were the same.

676
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 3: You explicitly said they're not the same. I'm gonna explicitly

677
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: say that they do not belong in the same sentence

678
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: with each other. The Warriors were awesome and all that,

679
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 3: not because of just Kevin Durant, not just because of

680
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 3: Steph Curry, who obviously the Sons don't have either. The

681
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: defensive profile is they're not in the same universe with

682
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: each other. And I think there are serious flaws that

683
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 3: existed with the old Suns team, which is why they

684
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 3: didn't win the title that now exists even more with

685
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: this version of the team. I just don't see that

686
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 3: the super team thing. Like, you're right if you think

687
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: this team rips off a twenty two and two stretch

688
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 3: or a twenty and two sorry to close the year,

689
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 3: then yeah, sure you got to get it now. But

690
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: I think I think there's a lot of other ways

691
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 3: you could bet it along the way. I just don't

692
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 3: I don't know what we're seeing on this team to

693
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: believe that that's what's in there, especially when they didn't

694
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 3: know how to play together yet or they're not healthy yet.

695
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 3: The other thing I'd add is this with the nuggets

696
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: I talked about, you'll need to bet it now, wait

697
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 3: for forty six weeks because just want to make sure.

698
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 3: Why not know what we can know? Then guess who

699
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 3: you really would like that extra information on the team

700
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: with Kevin Durant and Chris Paul and Den Booker, the

701
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 3: three guys who never stay healthy ever, Like we're not

702
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: gonna I was gonna ask you this, but I want

703
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: I don't want to guess a percentage, But just listener,

704
00:31:56,200 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: think to yourself, what percentage chance would I give right

705
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,239
Speaker 3: now that six weeks from now, eight weeks from now

706
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 3: on the playoffs start. What percentage chance is one of

707
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: Kevin Durant or Devin Booker or Chris Paul not fully

708
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: healthy or maybe out for the season or out the

709
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 3: rest of the playoffs. What chance do I give that?

710
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 3: Because it's the highest of any relevant team in this race.

711
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: Whatever chance you're choosing, I don't wish you got anyone.

712
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 3: We want to see all the teams good and at

713
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 3: their best. But that is a serious factor. And the

714
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 3: earlier you bet this team, you not only don't know

715
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 3: if they're that great yet, you don't know if you

716
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 3: even get to benefit from it because they might just

717
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 3: not be healthy. Anyway, those three of all guys.

718
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: You have in your bet, in your bets, you've got

719
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 2: a lean on over three and a half on the seating.

720
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: So let's let's skip that and get to the Clippers

721
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: and then Kings, because those three are all in the

722
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 3: same division. And I want to kind of talk about

723
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 3: I mentioned all my Kings positions, They're all kind of

724
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: feeding to the same thing. I wouldn't play the over

725
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 3: three and a half because I think there are other

726
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: different better ways to play that.

727
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: Kay, Clippers, I just assume you're with me and like,

728
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: I just think this is a stayaway. I understand everyone's

729
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: excitement about the about the Clippers and playing better. I

730
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 2: probably need to upgrade them a little bit more manually,

731
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: given how Kwui is played. If you tell me QUI

732
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: miss like, I just why why? Look you you talked

733
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: me into the over on the Clippers, and we both

734
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: liked them. We both love them because of their versatility

735
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: and depth. It didn't really matter when they played like

736
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: morons the first two months of the season, when the

737
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 2: team that had all this shooting just didn't shoot threes.

738
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: That was maddening. We're gonna, like, I'm gonna lose some money.

739
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: I didn't be a lot on the on the over there,

740
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: but like I am at the point of just being like, nope,

741
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: I don't. The Clippers just are not worth our regular

742
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 2: season money. We get to stop talking ourselves into this.

743
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 2: I think that continues here.

744
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you could just like producer David could

745
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 3: just take all my stuff I just said about the

746
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 3: Suns and just repeat all for the Clippers. Like, I

747
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: haven't eve really thought about this before. But why Kevin Durant?

748
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: Which one do you want? I don't know. They're both

749
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 3: really good, Paul George Devin Booker, Which one do you want?

750
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 3: Both pretty good? Well, I know if I want Chris

751
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 3: Paul or Russell Westbrook. I have decision on that one.

752
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 3: You can decide which one you think it's Chris. But

753
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: like these hypothetical teams that might be really good any

754
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 3: given night, we'll see might decide not to bother showing

755
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: up that night that we've seen that with the Clippers

756
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: might just not be healthy. This is another team that

757
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 3: you can't bet right now because we don't know if

758
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 3: Kawi is going to be ready for the ten week

759
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 3: Hall of the Playoffs. We don't know about PG either.

760
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 3: I tried to get excited about them a little bit

761
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: because I was like, well, Reggie Jackson and John Wall

762
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: sucked and they got rid of them. Addition by subtraction,

763
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 3: Well guess what mister subtraction by addition is on the

764
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: team now. And Russell Westbrook, I think pretty much just

765
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: replaces the Reggie and John wall And look, let me

766
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 3: be clear. I tweeted about the Westbrook thing, like I

767
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 3: see eleven dudes on the Clippers that I would rather

768
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 3: play than Russell Westbrook. Let me be clear, that does

769
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: not mean abstract Russell Westbrook is a worse basketball player

770
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: than those eleven. If we're having a one on one

771
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 3: basketball contest or a talents level contest, I'll take Westbrook.

772
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 3: I'm not dumb. But if I want to win some

773
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 3: basketball games and I already have Kawhian PG and the

774
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 3: guys they have on the team, I don't need Westbrook

775
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: in that mix. And if it wasn't volatile enough, adding

776
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 3: him in and seeing what that's going to look like, no,

777
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 3: thank you, I do not want it, sir, No, thank

778
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 3: you very much. It's a pass on regular season stuff.

779
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 3: I wouldn't mind playing the plus two to ninety division

780
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: just because I don't get it, Like, why why it's

781
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 3: Clippers Suns Kings? Why is the Sun's number way shorter

782
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 3: than the Clippers when they're basically at the same win

783
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 3: total and at some books, Slippers are forty six and

784
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: half higher than the Suns. I don't understand why the

785
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 3: Clippers are way longer. You're probably gonna tell me a

786
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 3: tiebreaker thing right now, so that's probably part of it.

787
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,879
Speaker 3: But if you want to play them, I don't mind

788
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: that way. I just don't need to do it.

789
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's in reality, it's this.

790
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 2: It is that the Suns with the number one seed

791
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 2: in the Western Conference before the injuries hit in December,

792
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 2: and they just added Kevin Durant. Now that makes it

793
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 2: a little more unstable. It compromises their depths. But like

794
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 2: that's the core of this, is that the Sons are

795
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 2: really really awesome. And like trying to get I will

796
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 2: say this too, Like for me, trying to get a

797
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 2: projection on the Suns is almost impossible because I can't

798
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: exclude the month and a half where they were so

799
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: banged up it was unrecognizable. But I'm not going to

800
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 2: go back and just take where they were on just

801
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 2: on December first and take them from there either.

802
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: I don't know what the impact of losing McHale is.

803
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 2: I don't know what the impact of losing Cam is,

804
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 2: And I don't know what the impact of losing those

805
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: two together is. Because there's a little bit of a

806
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: cluster effect, Like, Kevin Durant's a good defender, but he's

807
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 2: not Cam Johnson and especially not Mikhale Bridges. Those the

808
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: two guys are good offensively, but they're certainly not Kevin Durant. So, like,

809
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: I think trying to get the sense of those is

810
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 2: really difficult. What I want to ask you, though, is like,

811
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: as we're kind of talking about this, let's talk about

812
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: the division because you kind of mentioned suns over three

813
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: and a half on the seating. Clippers are plus two

814
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 2: ninety Kings plus four eighty Warriors plus thirteen hundred sons

815
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: miles one fifty. What's the best value do you think

816
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 2: on to win the Pacific Division?

817
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: Right now?

818
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,280
Speaker 3: All right now, we're doing Kings. This is light the Beam,

819
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 3: It's Kings season. I think the Kings are the right

820
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 3: value here. So let's talk about the Kings. Their profile

821
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 3: confuse me a little bit because on the surface it

822
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 3: looks like some similar things to the Grizzlies in that

823
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 3: I think their profile is one where we're talking just

824
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: regular season here. I think we're going to want to

825
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: fade them in the playoffs for some obvious reasons. The

826
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: defense is not good, and I think two they've been

827
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 3: one of the hell healthiest teams, so they're benefiting. It's

828
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 3: shocking when you look at the standings and you're like, whoa,

829
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: the Sacramento Kings are the three seed. But we said

830
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: it about the Grizzlies at the two seed. Not all

831
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 3: seeds are created equable. And I think this is a

832
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 3: very flimsy three seed. And I was expecting to be like,

833
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 3: all right, let me point out all the flaws. The

834
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: health won't last. The numbers aren't quite that good. They're

835
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: the healthy team playing some of the unhealthy teams. They're

836
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 3: a kind of a fake three seed. And then I

837
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 3: saw all the numbers at all the books, who are

838
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 3: like the Kings suck. The Kings are like the eight seed.

839
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 3: We're pricing them accordingly. And now I've gone the other way.

840
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 3: The Kings don't suck. The Kings are pretty good. They're

841
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 3: a pretty good offense. No, that's not fair. They're the

842
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 3: number two offense behind only the possibly historically great Denver

843
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 3: Nuggets offense. That's really good. An offense is stickier than

844
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 3: defense and wins a lot of basketball games night tonight.

845
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 3: Being the number two offense in twenty twenty three turns

846
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: out is a great winning formula. Whatever else is happening

847
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 3: for your team. So let me give you some bets here,

848
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 3: because I like the Kings, who, by the way, right

849
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 3: now are the three seed. They are right now ahead

850
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 3: of the Suns, ahead of the Clippers. It's a little

851
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 3: yankee because they've played a different number of games, but

852
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 3: in the standings they're the three seed. So I looked

853
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 3: at it. I saw the plus forty for Division. I

854
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: was like, all right, well, I think that's the play then, right,

855
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: I think you gotta play Kings to pass in the division.

856
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 3: Like I didn't comment about the Warriors, I don't really

857
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 3: give the Warriors credit for being the conversation. I'm gonna

858
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 3: keep it just to these three for now. However, if

859
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: I like the plus forty for Division, I've seen a

860
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 3: five hundred out there. If they win the division, they

861
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 3: have to beat the Suns and the Clippers in the standings.

862
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 3: If they beat the Suns and the Clippers in the standings,

863
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: they're at least the four seed and maybe the three seed.

864
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: So rather than playing the division, here's my fun. Little

865
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: escalator already wrote this. It's going to come out in

866
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 3: my position soon. Three bets. I'm playing them all first

867
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: bet under five and a half seed, so I need

868
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 3: the Kings to be the five seed are better. This

869
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 3: is my base bet. I think that right now we're

870
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 3: looking at Clippers, Sons, Kings, MAVs. I think books are

871
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: tweating those four teams like the three to six seed.

872
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 3: I think the MAVs belong in the next group down,

873
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 3: so I think the Kings are pretty safely below that.

874
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: That is a plus one to fifteen, So I'm getting

875
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,479
Speaker 3: plus number and the Kings to at least be top five.

876
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 3: They could still be behind the Clippers and the Suns

877
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: and still be the five seed. I think that's probably

878
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 3: the most likely outcome. Still hits that bet. Now now

879
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,240
Speaker 3: I'm only a game behind the Clippers and the Suns.

880
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,919
Speaker 3: That's where I have them. I have Sacramento have forty four,

881
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: the Clippers and Sons have forty five, so I have

882
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 3: them behind but right there. And if I like the

883
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 3: possible division odds plus five hundred to be the outright

884
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 3: four seed, I'll add I do is pass one of

885
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 3: those two teams plus eight hundred. My favorite bet to

886
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 3: be the three seed if they win the division. They

887
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 3: already are ahead of the Suns and the Clippers. We're

888
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: not gonna pass the Grizzlies. Please God, don't let that

889
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 3: be the reason I lost this bet. Plus eight hundred

890
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 3: to be the three seed. I think is the smarter

891
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 3: way to bet this than playing the division, because if

892
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 3: they win the division, all you're really betting on now

893
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 3: is we didn't catch all the way up to the Grizzlies,

894
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 3: and somebody like Dallas or whoever didn't do even better

895
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,320
Speaker 3: than that. I think that the Kings are in range

896
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 3: for all this. So that's my weird escalator play under

897
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 3: five and a half seed plus odds and then plus

898
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 3: five hundred four seed plus eight hundred three seed. I'd

899
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 3: split the bet half and a half on that as

900
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 3: the escalator. That's my wild Kings. Light the beam case,

901
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 3: have lit any beams for you?

902
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: What do you think I think I'm going to tell

903
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 1: you on this. I think I'm gonna go ahead and

904
00:41:58,400 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with you.

905
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: Here's the argument against if you want like the counter argument,

906
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 2: it's that the Kings had a really really really really

907
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: really good start and then they've been like not plummeting,

908
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: but just gradually fading the last fifteen games, the Sacramento

909
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: Kings are eight and seven with a plus zero point

910
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 2: six net rating.

911
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 1: That's compared to the Phoenix Suns, who.

912
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 2: Without Kevin Durant, without Kevin Durant have a substantially better

913
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,919
Speaker 2: net rating over the last fifteen games at plus three

914
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 2: point eight, and they're eleven and four, and the Clippers

915
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 2: who are plus three point nine and are ten and five.

916
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: So essentially, like the last.

917
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: Fifteen games, which is not a tiny sample, the Kings

918
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: have been more of the mediocre ilk like, this is

919
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 2: the kind of thing is just like the books are

920
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 2: basically saying they had a good start, they're gonna fail.

921
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: We trust these other teams more.

922
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 2: I think that four seed is where you really start

923
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: to get value because it hedges against you know, they

924
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: couldn't hold off the Suns. They made too strong of

925
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 2: a run, but the Clippers rested guys, or the Clippers

926
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 2: made a huge run, the Suns weren't quite as good,

927
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 2: so they selled in there, and you win both of

928
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: the under five and a half yeah, and the four

929
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 2: bet So like the escalator there works. The only complication there,

930
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 2: I think is Dallas. It's like, in all this conversation

931
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 2: we haven't gotten to Dallas yet, which, like again, they're

932
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 2: another team very difficult to kind of project with the

933
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: Kyrie stuff, the Kyrie Lukeman It's were not good. But

934
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: I will just kind of say, like I have the

935
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: Kings projected currently at forty six point two wins. I

936
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 2: have the Suns at forty five point six. Even if

937
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 2: I bump them up to where they get over that

938
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 2: still gets them in the four spot. I have the

939
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: Mavericks at forty three point eight, the Clippers of forty

940
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: three point five. I can bump those up, and the

941
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: Kings still have a very a much better than five

942
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 2: to one, which is the four seed fighting chance of

943
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 2: landing top four.

944
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: So I'm probably gonna tell you on this I like

945
00:43:58,000 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: this setup.

946
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, and to me, it's again we talked on the

947
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: Eastern version of this podcast about in the top four.

948
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 3: I made a case for why I would be happy

949
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,800
Speaker 3: to bet of all four teams in the regular season,

950
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 3: who I want to back Philadelphia. They're the team that

951
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 3: I think is the most to gain by pushing. I

952
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 3: think Sacramento is the Philadelphia of this group of teams. Dallas,

953
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 3: you got Luca, you got Kyrie, just get healthy and

954
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 3: learn how to play together and make sure both parties

955
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: would like to play basketball in the playoffs, right, Just

956
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: get there, the Clippers. Just put them in a bubble

957
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 3: wrap and get there. Who's the matchup? I don't know, whatever,

958
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 3: We'll figure it out. We'll be there later. Kevin Durant

959
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: CP book. We been to the finals. We all know

960
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 3: how this is going. Just get us there. Oh, division banner,

961
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 3: that's cute. Hey, you know who The division banner is

962
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: cute for the Sacramento Kings. The Kings would love to

963
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: hang a division banner. The Kings would love to get

964
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 3: the four seed and earn a home court in the

965
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 3: first round of a series that they might actually think

966
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 3: they could to win. Home court matters if you're the Kings.

967
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 3: Giving the three seed matters if you're the Kings. I

968
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 3: don't think any of these other teams on the range

969
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 3: really could care less. Frankly, if anything, I think some

970
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 3: of them might take a game or two at the

971
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 3: end so they get to play the Kings. But that

972
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 3: helps our bet because the Kings get to kind of

973
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 3: move up in the standings while somebody else loses on purpose.

974
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 3: I just think, motivationally, like the numbers say this is close,

975
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,879
Speaker 3: and the motivations are all in favor of Sacramento, where

976
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: I don't think any of the other three teams really

977
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 3: are going to care all that much to make a push.

978
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 2: We all know about the updates of Steph Curry. We

979
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:38,879
Speaker 2: don't know where his when he's going to be back.

980
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 2: But I do want to ask you about this. Of

981
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 2: these three bets Clippers plus five hundred Warriors plus nine

982
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 2: hundred Mavericks plus eight hundred to win the Western Conference,

983
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: you'll have to bet any of them, which one do

984
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 2: you like the best. I'll go first while you think

985
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 2: about it. Who are the three teams Clippers plus five

986
00:45:56,520 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: hundred Warriors plus nine hundred Mavericks plus eight hundred. I

987
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,240
Speaker 2: still have to return to the Warriors at plus nine hundred.

988
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 2: I wrote about this on Twitter a little bit over

989
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 2: the weekend.

990
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 1: I'll probably do a little bit of in.

991
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 2: My trend's piece going into the start of the season

992
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 2: here on Thursday.

993
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 1: Two things are simultaneously.

994
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 2: True of all NBA conference representatives have come from a

995
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 2: top three seed. Okay, there are sixteen teams total in

996
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: NBA history that have won their conference as more than

997
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 2: a three seed. It is also true that the Warriors

998
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 2: have the best net rating for any five man unit

999
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 2: that's played one hundred minutes this season.

1000
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: They're better than the Nuggets. Nuggets, we are very close at second.

1001
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: It's that lineup. It's the death lineup with Looney instead

1002
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 1: of Pool. The Warriors, when.

1003
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: They have Steph Draymond and Clay healthy for all games

1004
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 2: of a series, have not lost period in dot Draymond

1005
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: missed the Game five in twenty sixteen, Clay missed the

1006
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: remainder of the of the series in two thousand nine.

1007
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 2: Team other than that, they've won the title. That's who

1008
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 2: the Warriors are now. There's a lot of reasons to

1009
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 2: not believe that they should be favorites here or like serious,

1010
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:13,919
Speaker 2: like they've told us who they are. I said about

1011
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 2: this with Ken Barkley right going in a couple weeks ago.

1012
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: They've told us who they are all year. They can't

1013
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 2: they don't have a depth, they can't win games on

1014
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 2: the road. They're not gonna be a top three seed.

1015
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,919
Speaker 2: Their offensive mediocre, their defense hasn't been great like they

1016
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 2: have fifty plus games. The Warriors have told us we're

1017
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 2: not a great team. The passibility of what they can

1018
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 2: be is better than plus nine hundred.

1019
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 1: So even with the Clippers. Now, I have positions on.

1020
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 2: Clippers in preseason, but that's what helps me here. I

1021
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 2: don't buy Mavericks.

1022
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 1: I don't think the defense will be good enough.

1023
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 2: So to me, this is a pretty obvious bet if

1024
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 2: you were going to bet one of these three, I

1025
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:47,479
Speaker 2: don't want it right now.

1026
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: I need to see when Steph gets back.

1027
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 2: But I will say I did this last year where

1028
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: I bet the Warriors when Steph was out because they

1029
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 2: had to factor in the uncertainty with his injury. When

1030
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 2: I was like, he's gonna be back for the playoffs,

1031
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 2: it's gonna be fine, and I got way better number.

1032
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 1: It was a huge win for us. So like, it's

1033
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 1: gonna be hard for me not to include the Warriors.

1034
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: But they were gonna be a top three seed last year.

1035
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 1: They will not.

1036
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 2: They will have to go on the road whe they

1037
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 2: were terrible this year. That has to matter here. Clippers

1038
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 2: plus five hundred, Warriors plus nine hundred, Mavers plus eight hundred,

1039
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 2: which would you want to bet?

1040
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 3: Okay, So no, I don't want to bet this bet.

1041
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 3: I will not bet any of them, but I'm gonna

1042
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 3: choose an answer, because that's the game. I'm not choosing Dallas.

1043
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 3: Dallas is my first elimination here. I don't see the defense,

1044
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 3: I don't see the path. I'm kind of fading Dallas.

1045
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,319
Speaker 3: I like the Dallas under they I don't like their

1046
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,400
Speaker 3: chances to get to the win total. I just see

1047
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 3: too many ways and go sideways. I thought I was

1048
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,280
Speaker 3: gonna choose the Clippers, and then I heard your case

1049
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 3: for the Warriors, and I don't even know if it

1050
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 3: was the case for the Warriors as much as my

1051
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 3: PTSD of last season for about forty or fifty games,

1052
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 3: being like, Warriors, Baby, we're back. Here we go, shooty hoops, Steph,

1053
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 3: We're doing the whole thing again. Raymon Defensive Player of

1054
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 3: the Year, Steph is the MVP. And then all in sideways,

1055
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,439
Speaker 3: and at some point I decided in my notes, it's

1056
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 3: not this year. It's not happening. Sorry, it was happening.

1057
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 3: They were the best team. Now it's not happening. It

1058
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 3: just didn't go right. Too many injuries, it's just not there.

1059
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 3: That's kind of how I feel about things right now.

1060
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 3: I feel like it's just not happening. What last year?

1061
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 3: Boy did I ever have some fomo on my Warriors

1062
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 3: have anything on them. I had no positions for Warriors

1063
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 3: stuff as they rampaged through the NBA and did all

1064
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 3: the things that I absolutely one hundred percent believe they

1065
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 3: were going to and then opted out of because I

1066
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 3: worried about the injuries. So I would take a Warrior's

1067
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 3: pick of the three because the number is long, I

1068
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 3: think appropriately, So I think the Warriors are going to

1069
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 3: have to be out of the play in I think

1070
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 3: the Warriors probably would have to win two play in games.

1071
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: I don't even know if the Warriors make the play him.

1072
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 3: That's what I truly think about the Golden State Warriors. Okay,

1073
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 3: but if they get in and I got Stephan Draymon, whatever,

1074
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 3: I don't care about the rest. I don't believe on

1075
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 3: the roster. I don't like it, but I don't really

1076
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 3: feel like I'm losing out a ton by not taking

1077
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 3: the Dallas or Clippers number. I don't think there's a

1078
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 3: great value in any of the three, but I learned

1079
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:22,879
Speaker 3: my lesson last year. If I got to pick one,

1080
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 3: just gave me Stephen Draymond.

1081
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 2: If I upgrade the Warriors three points for staff, which

1082
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,479
Speaker 2: I think that's what he's worth to my power rating

1083
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 2: if I upgrade him them three points. There, all of

1084
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,879
Speaker 2: a sudden, they're basically on the bubble of the six seven.

1085
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 2: They're tied essentially with the Clippers, the Wolves, and the

1086
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: Clippers and Wolves for the sixth spot. Any one of

1087
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: those teams could get in, so I don't have them

1088
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: considerably higher that it's if they won the title, it

1089
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 2: will be one of the most impressive runs in terms

1090
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 2: of adversity that they will faced, and that'll be very impressive.

1091
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 2: Let's wrap up by going over some best bets here.

1092
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you the floor unless you kind of

1093
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 2: go over these. Let's start with we've gone over grizz

1094
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 2: to see mis fifty in their kings bets.

1095
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: Let's go with OKC. You'd like the play in tournament

1096
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 1: plus two forty there for them.

1097
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 3: I do, Yeah, Joe and I are gonna do for

1098
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 3: Friday buckets a whole play in episode, so you can

1099
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 3: keep an eye out there come in this Friday. I

1100
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 3: actually think the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most likely

1101
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: team in the West to make the play in tournament,

1102
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 3: and I think that you get them at a plus

1103
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 3: two forty to make the play, and I have to

1104
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 3: take that bet. The Thunder I think are really being

1105
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 3: overlooked here. They are a game away from five hundred,

1106
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 3: and I think they're sort of they weirdly have a

1107
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 3: similar profile to the Jazz. But the Jazz were really

1108
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 3: good for a while and then kind of tailed off

1109
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 3: when people stop sort of paying attention to people like me,

1110
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 3: I will add, and now the Jazz are back to

1111
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 3: not really being good. They're kind of the thing that

1112
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,839
Speaker 3: you said about the Kings. The Thunder were the other way.

1113
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 3: The Thunder were not good. We expect the Thunder not

1114
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 3: be good. And now quietly the Thunder up to tenth

1115
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 3: in that rating. They're top twelve on offense and defense. Yep.

1116
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 3: Last few fifteen games, the Thunder are third and that

1117
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 3: rating third. That's like conference finals. Good. I'm not putting

1118
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 3: this team in the conference finals, but I feel like

1119
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 3: we're kind of doing this thing, and books seem to

1120
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 3: be treating them like, well, it's cute, cute story. But

1121
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 3: pretty soon there's a team with Steph, and there's a

1122
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 3: team with Lebron, and there's a team with Dame and

1123
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 3: they all have superstars and thanks for playing Oklahoma City.

1124
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 3: I feel like that's wrong, and honestly, the way he's

1125
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 3: played this year, I feel like Shaye belongs in that

1126
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: conversation absolutely with those three guys, and the rest of

1127
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 3: the roster is playing better than the rest of those

1128
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 3: other guys rosters. The Thunder pretty good. They're just pretty good.

1129
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 3: Mark Danel we've always have thought was pretty pretty average.

1130
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 3: Okay better, They're probably not pretty good, but they're they're solid.

1131
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 3: They're in that range.

1132
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 2: Like, you're right, yeah, I think Mark Doug you were

1133
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 2: talking about Markdaganel, He's awesome.

1134
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 1: Mark Daniel's Yeah, they are pretty good.

1135
00:52:58,000 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 2: My question was trying to interrupt ask you, is like,

1136
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 2: can you imagine what will happen if the Thunder knock

1137
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 2: out Lebron in the play in tournament, If it's nine

1138
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 2: to ten and the Thunder go into LA after knocking

1139
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:14,399
Speaker 2: him out in after beating him in the game where

1140
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 2: he set the all time scoring record, and they house

1141
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 2: them to then go in and limit.

1142
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: Like the absolute just sheer cries that will like, there

1143
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 1: will be.

1144
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 2: It'll be panic in the street to the Thunder or

1145
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 2: the Warriors if they not got either one of those

1146
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 2: teams is gonna be like the Thunder.

1147
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 3: Well, and here's the thing, I don't know what the

1148
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 3: number is to make the playoff proper. I don't want

1149
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 3: to know. I don't want to bet on the Thunder

1150
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 3: to go do stuff in the playing and beyond. Maybe

1151
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 3: they do. I will enjoy it. I love the Thunder.

1152
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 3: I've gotten a lots of games and okay, see fun plays,

1153
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 3: fun team. I just want to make the play in.

1154
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 3: I don't know if the Thunder quote knock out the

1155
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 3: Lakers or the Warriors by beating them. Had to head

1156
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 3: alte litally think the Thunder might knock out the Lakers

1157
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 3: or Warriors by stealing their spot in the play in,

1158
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 3: because I think there's a lot of teams that are

1159
00:54:08,400 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: looking down there, like, well, there's four spots down here

1160
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 3: for us again, and you know there might be three.

1161
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 3: There might only be three. The Thunder might already have

1162
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 3: one of those that you are discounting from seeing I

1163
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,919
Speaker 3: taggo tho to one forky thing that I like about

1164
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 3: the Thunder. Your schedule. All four games the Thunder play

1165
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 3: against the Jazz are still to come, and I think

1166
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:32,359
Speaker 3: that is weirdly this huge swing factor for them. If

1167
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 3: you play the Thunder against the Jazz first month of

1168
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:38,760
Speaker 3: the season. I think Utah as well as they were playing,

1169
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:41,840
Speaker 3: wins three of those games, maybe all four. The Thunder

1170
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:46,280
Speaker 3: weren't good. The Jazz are killing teams. Now Utah traded

1171
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:50,840
Speaker 3: away Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Jared Vanderbilt. Now Utah I

1172
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 3: think is moving towards probably a stealth tank toward the

1173
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 3: finish line. I don't think they're in the same class

1174
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 3: as okasee here. Now I think wins three or four

1175
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 3: of those games. That weird, weird little scheduling glitch that's

1176
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 3: gonna be maybe like a three game swing. That weird

1177
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:15,240
Speaker 3: scheduling glitch might knock Lebron or step out of the playoffs. Congratulations,

1178
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 3: NBA money and economics. The weird scheduling OKC Utah thing

1179
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 3: that would never have possibly mattered, might like swing the

1180
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 3: playoff race. And it's weird, but I want to bet

1181
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 3: it plus two forty to make the play in.

1182
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 2: We both like Spurs under twenty and a half. I

1183
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 2: don't think we need to like really go into detail

1184
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:35,920
Speaker 2: on this. It's pretty obvious the Spurs are actively tanking.

1185
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 2: I have, like, I think the Rockets are the worst

1186
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: team in the league. I have the Spurs power rated

1187
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 2: below them, like it's not this is not hard to

1188
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 2: figure out, Like the Spurs, I don't think you're gonna

1189
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 2: hit twenty wins. Like I kind of made that argument

1190
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 2: preseason about when we were doing the over underwin totals.

1191
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 2: I didn't bet it, but I was like, look, pop

1192
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 2: still won over twenty and back in ninety ninety eight

1193
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: when they were trying to get duncan they still want

1194
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 2: like this team's worse that this team is just categorically

1195
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 2: worse in every category they are aligned in their incentives.

1196
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 2: They trade away Yak, like the under twenty and a

1197
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 2: half minus one ten is a very good bet. I

1198
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 2: don't want to go into jazz. Let's save that for

1199
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 2: another time. Because you have the under a thirty nine

1200
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 2: and a half. I would say, like, I'm not as

1201
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 2: like you're like they trade away all the good guys.

1202
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 2: They still have a bunch of good guys left, like

1203
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: Lori Barket, it's really good and they're really well coached.

1204
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 1: They're really well coached.

1205
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: The last one I want to ask you about is

1206
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:30,919
Speaker 2: Dallas Mavericks. You're the under forty five and a half.

1207
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 1: Lanley of Juice on it. Why do you like the

1208
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 1: MAVs under at forty five and a half?

1209
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:38,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think it's a numbers thing. I'm looking

1210
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 3: at it that Dallas Mavericks are thirty one and twenty

1211
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 3: nine right now, so there are twenty two games left

1212
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 3: and the number is forty five and a half. Dallas

1213
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 3: has to win fifteen games out of twenty two to

1214
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 3: hit the over Dallas sdo fifteen and seven. That is

1215
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 3: a fifty six win pace. Why in the world do

1216
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 3: we think this weird, unproven Mavericks team is a fifty

1217
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: six win team over the final stretch. The schedule is soft,

1218
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 3: for sure, but like, why do we think this is?

1219
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 3: We think this is rating Dallas to be the best

1220
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 3: team in the West for the final twenty two games.

1221
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 3: A fifty six win team would be the best team

1222
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 3: in the West, and I want to understand why that

1223
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 3: would be the case. I said before, I think the

1224
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 3: books are treating the MAVs with We talked about that

1225
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 3: Kyrie or the Durant momentum, and the books kind of

1226
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 3: inflated the Suns. I think it happened with Dallas and

1227
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 3: it hasn't readjusted yet. I think Dallas is being treated

1228
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 3: like they're in that three to six grouping with the

1229
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 3: Clippers and Sons, and frankly they're they're head of the

1230
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 3: Kings and everything. I don't think they're. I think Dallas

1231
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 3: is in the next group down with Minnesota and Okasee

1232
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 3: and Golden State and the Lakers. Dallas under forty five

1233
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 3: and a half is just it's too many wins. Fifteen

1234
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 3: and seven is too much for me to ask for.

1235
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 3: I don't trust the defense, they don't have any I

1236
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 3: don't trust Kyrie to show up any given a night

1237
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 3: or actually play basketball. And there's just there's too many

1238
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 3: other teams in the West, all those seven to twelve teams.

1239
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 3: Somebody could go on a run. Oh look, Zion's back

1240
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 3: and the Pelicans are really good. Hey Cat's back. The

1241
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 3: Timberwls are winning a lot of games. Here comes Lebron,

1242
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 3: here comes Steph. There's so many other teams. So I

1243
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 3: think actually under forty five and a half, just as

1244
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 3: a numbers play plus three fifty s some books to

1245
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 3: make the play in. They're the sixth seed right now,

1246
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 3: they only they're tied in the losses column for the

1247
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 3: ten seed. Right now, they're right there and I just

1248
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 3: I don't think that it's that much of a lock.

1249
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 3: I don't want to bet them to miss the playoffs

1250
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 3: because they're going to be in the plane at least

1251
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:47,800
Speaker 3: and then it's Luca and Kyrie and you're gonna at

1252
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 3: least get out from there. I just think we're giving

1253
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 3: Dallas a little too much credit overall. I like the under,

1254
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 3: and I might look for some kind of alt ways

1255
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 3: to see how far down could this thing go.

1256
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 2: I have one best bet, so I've got spurs in

1257
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,400
Speaker 2: or twenty and a half with you. You've swung me

1258
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 2: on the King's bet. I think I had Sons plus

1259
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 2: one a five third seed with the Kings plus four

1260
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 2: eighty specific division hedge. I think you convinced me on

1261
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 2: the King's bet. My final one is gonna be the

1262
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 2: Wolves over This number is is really insulting. The Wolves

1263
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: are at forty and a half on their win total.

1264
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 2: If we look at where they're at and where they're going.

1265
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: You know, the Wolves right now are at thirty one

1266
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 2: wins with twenty one games remaining, Like that's projecting them

1267
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 2: for nine and.

1268
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 1: Twelve, is what they're They're basically saying that this team

1269
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 1: or that Yeah.

1270
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 3: They're thirty one and thirty is so to hit an

1271
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 3: over they have to get to they have to go

1272
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 3: ten and eleven to hit the over.

1273
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 2: I don't understand that. I don't understand that at all.

1274
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 2: The Wolves last fifteen nine and six with a plus

1275
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 2: one point three net rating. That's better than Dallas. If

1276
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 2: we look at like I've got them projected at forty three,

1277
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 2: I have the ma solid three wins over here, folks,

1278
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 2: missile Timberwolves are good, Like I don't know what to

1279
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 2: tell you, Like, they're a good team. They're well coached.

1280
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 2: All the things I said about them like pretty accurate.

1281
01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:17,920
Speaker 2: Now h Towns is going to come back in But

1282
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 2: one of the things that him being out has allowed

1283
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: is they figured out kind of an identity.

1284
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:24,439
Speaker 1: This team is a team. Identity is a lot better.

1285
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 2: It's like ant and aggressiveness and Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin,

1286
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 2: like they're a better team now. I think Kat helps them.

1287
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: I think in like Mike Conley for Delo, it's gonna

1288
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 2: hurt them in some clutch situations because of what Delo

1289
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: can do in terms of shooting. You can already tell that,

1290
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 2: like Mike's helping them be better. Everyone feels better with

1291
01:00:45,240 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 2: Mike there. Like, I don't think that like Mike Conley

1292
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: may not even be as good of a player in

1293
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 2: terms of like statistically or if we were to like

1294
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 2: rate them with his age.

1295
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 3: It's the thing I said, Yeah, he's gonna help y'all

1296
01:00:58,200 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 3: win a game.

1297
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: Yes, And that's the thing.

1298
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:03,520
Speaker 2: So I love the Wolves over forty and a half

1299
01:01:03,600 --> 01:01:06,960
Speaker 2: here that they've been criminally underrated essentially since Towns went down.

1300
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 2: We'll see if Towns comes back. That's getting to be

1301
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:11,840
Speaker 2: pretty late in the season. But no, I do think

1302
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 2: that they want to going over five hundred. I like

1303
01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 2: the Wolves over here.

1304
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 3: I'll just chime in with two quick things that wrap

1305
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 3: up here. Number One, we talked about Spurs under Jazz

1306
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 3: under you mentioned we got a tinking piece going up

1307
01:01:24,640 --> 01:01:26,560
Speaker 3: this week at Action Network that you can read. I

1308
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:28,440
Speaker 3: made the case both of those. I do like those

1309
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 3: a lot, so ian to make sure you see those.

1310
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 3: I got Timberolves back for you here. I'm looking around here.

1311
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 3: Timberwolves versus Pelicans head to head wins, not against each other,

1312
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 3: but like who finishes with the most wins Timbers versus Pelicans,

1313
01:01:42,080 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 3: the Minnesota Timberwolves are plus two ten head to head

1314
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 3: against the Pelicans, and I think you want to take

1315
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 3: that back. We didn't really do Pelicans on here, but

1316
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 3: Minnesota is thirty one and thirty right now. New Orleans

1317
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 3: is thirty and twenty nine, so effectively they're tied the

1318
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 3: Minnesot's two extra games. Do you like the Minnesota plus

1319
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 3: two to ten against the Pelicans.

1320
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 2: Now, because then I'm betting against my own over underwind

1321
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 2: total on the Pals, right, and.

1322
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 3: We just can't let go of the Zion team. You're

1323
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 3: still holding out hope for that, Hammy.

1324
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 2: I want to believe that they'll go on a huge

1325
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 2: run and take over the Grizzlies and win the division

1326
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 2: that they should have won.

1327
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 1: So sad up fair, all right.

1328
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 2: That'll do it for this NBA post All Star Futures

1329
01:02:23,160 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 2: episode for the Action Network podcast I've been your host,

1330
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 2: Matt Moore. If you like this episode, make sure check

1331
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,120
Speaker 2: us out every single weekday over on Buckets, the NBA

1332
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 2: Betting Podcast from the Action Network, where we preview all

1333
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 2: things NBA betting Monday to Friday all season long.

1334
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 1: Enjoy the rest of your week.

1335
01:02:39,600 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 3: We'll catch you.

1336
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 2: Guys again next time on the Action Network.

1337
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: Podcast Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1338
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1339
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 1: is available to twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1340
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 1: gambler