WEBVTT - Single Best  Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Frances Donald

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:15.960
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:19.400
<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and a little background here. In each firm,

0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.000
<v Speaker 2>there's basically two sides. In the old old phrase is

0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.920
<v Speaker 2>there's a Chinese wall between them. You don't hear that

0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:30.520
<v Speaker 2>phrase anymore because of the sensitivities of our society. But

0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:33.319
<v Speaker 2>the Chinese wall is still a wall. So maybe it's

0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.600
<v Speaker 2>a big, big brick wall. And when you have investment

0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:40.480
<v Speaker 2>banking and you have an initial public offering where you're

0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:45.680
<v Speaker 2>selling shares of the public, research and management really can't

0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:50.080
<v Speaker 2>talk about a specific deal. So I have Lisia Shaladan

0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.599
<v Speaker 2>today Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, and I know and she

0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:57.680
<v Speaker 2>knows it's really rude of me to ask a question about, say,

0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:01.120
<v Speaker 2>a small Elon Musk company called Space. So the way

0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:05.640
<v Speaker 2>we frame this was to say to Lisa Shalott, the

0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:10.280
<v Speaker 2>IPOs that are coming in, now, what's it mean? As

0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.680
<v Speaker 2>announced last night that they have to play by the

0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:18.120
<v Speaker 2>index rules. Lisa Shalott class act from Morgan Stanley.

0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:24.039
<v Speaker 3>I was extraordinarily cheered by the S and P five

0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:29.000
<v Speaker 3>hundred index decision. I think it maintains, you know, quote

0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.120
<v Speaker 3>unquote the rules of the game. I think it maintains

0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:36.119
<v Speaker 3>the integrity of that index, given how important it is

0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:41.600
<v Speaker 3>to the fundamental foundational integrity of retirement savings, and so,

0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:46.280
<v Speaker 3>you know, I think having rules sticking to them is

0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:51.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, part of what makes American capital markets, you know,

0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:55.320
<v Speaker 3>so prized around the world. And I was very happy

0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:56.960
<v Speaker 3>with with with that decision.

0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:00.760
<v Speaker 2>Lisa Shallatt driving all the leadership and men of Morgan

0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:05.120
<v Speaker 2>Stanley Wealth Management, it was Job's day. We were so

0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:09.560
<v Speaker 2>fortunate after that big number, the big move yields, higher price,

0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:13.480
<v Speaker 2>lower equities, trading off dollars, stronger yen, weaker through one

0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.800
<v Speaker 2>sixty to have with us. Francis Donald of URBC Capital

0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.880
<v Speaker 2>Markets her interpretation of this key report.

0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:24.520
<v Speaker 1>There are so many interesting stories within this May job

0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:28.480
<v Speaker 1>report that are really synonymous with other trends that we're seeing. So,

0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:33.120
<v Speaker 1>for example, there's some cyclical momentum forming underneath. The gains

0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.119
<v Speaker 1>that we saw today were pretty broad across all the sectors,

0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.799
<v Speaker 1>not just about healthcare. There are signs the consumer is okay.

0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.919
<v Speaker 1>So leisure and hospitality having a big number. We watched

0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.640
<v Speaker 1>that not because we're trying to forecast the next leisure

0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:48.600
<v Speaker 1>and hospitality number, but because we want to know what

0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:53.680
<v Speaker 1>the consumer's doing. We're looking for evidence of tariffs impacting

0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:56.399
<v Speaker 1>the job market, and so far that seems okay as well.

0:02:56.440 --> 0:03:00.200
<v Speaker 1>Looks like businesses are passing on those price pressures or

0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.240
<v Speaker 1>the inflation channel, not through the jobs channel. And we

0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.440
<v Speaker 1>still got a hearty support from those healthcare added jobs.

0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:08.760
<v Speaker 1>So when I put that story together, you know, for

0:03:08.800 --> 0:03:11.400
<v Speaker 1>a long time, the goal of the economist was to

0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:14.080
<v Speaker 1>get that non farm payroll number right. You know, you

0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.640
<v Speaker 1>were sort of measured by how well you could forecast that.

0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if it's just because I'm getting older,

0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:20.639
<v Speaker 1>but now I use the NFP number to help me

0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:22.519
<v Speaker 1>forecast where the economy is going to be in six

0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:24.919
<v Speaker 1>to twelve months. And when I do that, it tells

0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:26.640
<v Speaker 1>me that our view that we're going to come in

0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:29.400
<v Speaker 1>around two percent growth this year is right on track.

0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:33.919
<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald of RBC, there really a game changing jobs

0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.960
<v Speaker 2>report today at the headline that came out during the

0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:41.360
<v Speaker 2>show after the report that the futures market, the betting industry,

0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.800
<v Speaker 2>if you will, in the FED looks for a rate

0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:50.240
<v Speaker 2>increase sometime here into two thousand twenty six. We're on Apple,

0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:59.920
<v Speaker 2>We're on Spotify and YouTube, podcasts, single Best Idea

0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:02.400
<v Speaker 3>Seven,