WEBVTT - Surveillance: Unrest in Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 1>and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. What

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<v Speaker 1>you need to know is Andrew Card uh provided public

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<v Speaker 1>service to the nation across numerous presidencies, including as a

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<v Speaker 1>young kid out of Massachusetts wandering into the Reagan White House.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're thrilled at Andy card could join us this morning. Andy,

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<v Speaker 1>what was your first day like under the purview of

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<v Speaker 1>President Reagan? Oh, it was tremendous excitement. I remember first

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<v Speaker 1>of all, Uh, everybody was chipper. They had a wonderful

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<v Speaker 1>attitude and there were there was It was a very

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<v Speaker 1>positive experience from day one because we welcomed you. There

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<v Speaker 1>was a celebration of our great democracy. And Uh. Ronald

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<v Speaker 1>Reagan was a great communicator, not only with the public,

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<v Speaker 1>he was a great communicated with his staff. So he

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<v Speaker 1>made you feel as if you were very much part

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<v Speaker 1>of the game, and he encouraged you to be candid

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<v Speaker 1>with him and not to take his word as if

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<v Speaker 1>it was gospel. With what you observed yesterday. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>the reaffirmation of a republican Reaganism or did the Reagan

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<v Speaker 1>era die yesterday in this unrest. Well, yesterday was a

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<v Speaker 1>very sad day for our democracy. It was I was

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<v Speaker 1>in tears, and it troubles me because I'm also the

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<v Speaker 1>chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy, which Ronald Reagan

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<v Speaker 1>founded almost thirty five years ago, and it was amazing

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<v Speaker 1>for me to be part of the effort of creating

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<v Speaker 1>a climate with democracy was going to be spread all

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. And we were a shiny example. We

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<v Speaker 1>were a city on the hill. And today we attarnished.

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<v Speaker 1>Our democracy is tarnished, and the world is looking at

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<v Speaker 1>us and say this is not right. Maybe democracy isn't

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<v Speaker 1>the right way to go. Well, it is the right

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<v Speaker 1>way to go. And we've got to get everybody in America,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't care whether you're left or right, up or down,

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<v Speaker 1>get involved and help polish our democracy. Let's restore confidence

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<v Speaker 1>in our institutions of democracy and polished them so that

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<v Speaker 1>the world will recognize it's the right way to go.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't want autocracies or cleptocracies or communism. We want

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<v Speaker 1>the people to have to say that was reaffirmed last

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<v Speaker 1>night the speeches on the floor of the House and

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate after the dust kind of settled and people

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<v Speaker 1>the Congress got back to doing its constitutional business or

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<v Speaker 1>remarkable speeches. They were saying polishized democracy. The people spoke,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a new president. He's going to take the

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<v Speaker 1>oath of office, and we know that as a fact.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not a fraud, it's a fact. Andy, who is

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<v Speaker 1>the leader of the Republican Party today? Well, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump stole the Republican Party, so yes, he used

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<v Speaker 1>in a view used it. Um. I don't know who

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<v Speaker 1>the leader of our party was is today. I do

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<v Speaker 1>look at the kind of the former leaders of the

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<v Speaker 1>party speaking up to say, do a little soul searching

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<v Speaker 1>and take a look at what's been happening and see

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<v Speaker 1>where you want to go. But I think it started

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<v Speaker 1>with the speeches and the Senate last night, uh, where

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<v Speaker 1>many senators kind of acknowledged the angst of America at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time they said what happened yesterday was not

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<v Speaker 1>good for our democracy. Were much better than that, and

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<v Speaker 1>we can do it. So I think the party is

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be. It's gonna be struggling right now. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have to struggle. But I look at outstanding governors

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<v Speaker 1>like Charlie Baker and Chris Sunu this steady. They've done

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<v Speaker 1>a great job even in the midst of the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>And Charlie Baker is in a democratic state, Massachusetts, and

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<v Speaker 1>he's doing a remarkable job of leading. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>those people, those leaders helped give definition to the what

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<v Speaker 1>it means to be a Republican. I'm a proud Republican.

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<v Speaker 1>I was not a Trump Republican. Okay, you're a proud Republican.

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<v Speaker 1>With the soul searching that you're talking about, what will

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<v Speaker 1>people find what is the current soul of the Republican Party? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, I hope that it's a respect for institutions,

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<v Speaker 1>respect for democracy. You know, when I got involved in politics,

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<v Speaker 1>the rug of American politics had more rugged than fringe.

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<v Speaker 1>Today it has more fringe than rug. You really can't

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<v Speaker 1>govern unless you find your way to stand on the

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<v Speaker 1>rug and invite people to be part of a solution.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's what we have to look for.

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<v Speaker 1>Which about meeters today are looking to be part of

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<v Speaker 1>a solution, not part of a problem. And that's that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to I think we can find it, Andrew

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<v Speaker 1>card I think of the images across centuries of photographs.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, say, of Queen Mary and the young Queen

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<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth and the George's sixth funeral. You are part of

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most famous photos in history, that of

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<v Speaker 1>your whisper in the ear of President Bush on September eleven.

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<v Speaker 1>If you were to whisper into the ear of President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump this morning, what would you say? The humble acknowledge reality,

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<v Speaker 1>celebrate our constitution and our great democracy, and celebrate how

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<v Speaker 1>many votes you got. Even though you didn't win. You

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<v Speaker 1>got the second most number of votes of anybody who

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<v Speaker 1>ever ran for president. Unfortunately for you, Joe Biden got

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<v Speaker 1>even more votes, but he had. Our democracy showed up

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<v Speaker 1>in unbelievable numbers on election Day in two thousand twenty,

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<v Speaker 1>and we should be celebrating that a record number of

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<v Speaker 1>people showed the vote. And and yes, Donald Trump did

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<v Speaker 1>not win, he lost, but he got a remarkable number

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<v Speaker 1>of votes, and Joe Biden got even more votes, and

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<v Speaker 1>that turned into an electrical college victory that made the difference.

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<v Speaker 1>Andy Kurt, your comment on The Gentleman from Belmont, Mass

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Romney's speech yesterday on the Senate floor. I tell

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<v Speaker 1>you I've always been a fan of Mitt Romney. I

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<v Speaker 1>thought he has been a real steady person who celebrates

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<v Speaker 1>our democracy and invites speed to be part of the solution.

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<v Speaker 1>I was very proud of Rodney yesterday. One final question,

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<v Speaker 1>very quickly unfortunately, Mr card where's the common ground that

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<v Speaker 1>you have with Howard Dean of the Democrats? Look at

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<v Speaker 1>I've known Governor Dean for a long time, all the

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<v Speaker 1>way back when he first became governor of Vermont, and

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<v Speaker 1>I have great respect for him. You know, he and

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<v Speaker 1>I have a lot of reason to disagree on policy,

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<v Speaker 1>but we both celebrate the great country we live in.

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<v Speaker 1>And I actually like Howard Dean and get along well

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<v Speaker 1>with him. But I do remember talking to him literally

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<v Speaker 1>the day that he became the governor of New Hampshire.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm the governor of Vermont, and and UH followed with

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<v Speaker 1>great interest when he was running for president. And remember

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<v Speaker 1>he was a rocket out of the launch pad, but

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<v Speaker 1>he was Andy Carr, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>A former chief of staff for President or thrilled to

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<v Speaker 1>have him in to give republican perspective and the store

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hours. And to get perspective, it is important

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<v Speaker 1>to speak to all. There is justice, There is a

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<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court, the House, we had any number of legislative

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<v Speaker 1>types today, and the executive branch. And then there is

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<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon. James de Vitas, a serve nation as an

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<v Speaker 1>admiral with NATO, were thrilled that he could join us

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. Admirals Sdrvidas. There was in the misty memory

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<v Speaker 1>a president who wanted a Fourth of July parade with

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<v Speaker 1>tanks in the street off of the French parade of

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<v Speaker 1>Macroft and others. I've actually witnessed the Friends Parade at

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<v Speaker 1>Something to Behold yesterday. Selected Americans were looking for tanks

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<v Speaker 1>in the street to defend the capital. Explain the Pentagon's

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<v Speaker 1>relationship with the various police forces of our nation's capital.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with the fact that the capitol is defended

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<v Speaker 1>by the Capitol Police, which report to the federal government.

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<v Speaker 1>And then within the District of Columbia, of course you

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<v Speaker 1>have the d C Metropolitan Police and the deep back

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<v Speaker 1>up tom as I'm sure you know, is the d

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<v Speaker 1>C National Guard. So there's sort of three layers UH

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<v Speaker 1>policing and security that should have been far better aware

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<v Speaker 1>than they were. What you saw yesterday was a massive failure,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, at a nine eleven level, at a

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<v Speaker 1>nine eleven level, and there's a Hollywood movies of helicopters

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<v Speaker 1>overhead and somebody that looks a lot like handsome James

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<v Speaker 1>Travitez comes to the rescue. Yesterday wasn't Hollywood. What was

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<v Speaker 1>the optionality that the Pentagon had? They were waiting for

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<v Speaker 1>direction from the Commander in chief because of the unique

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<v Speaker 1>status of the District of Columbia not a state. Normally,

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<v Speaker 1>a state governor could call his or her UH state

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<v Speaker 1>Guard to quell a riot, and that's what we had. Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>it had to come from the Commander in Chief, who

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<v Speaker 1>dithered all day. By all accounts, ultimately it was the

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<v Speaker 1>Vice President of the United States who ordered the acting

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Defense to deploy the d C Guard. So

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump was clearly not only inciting the riot but

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<v Speaker 1>then missing an action and trying to resolve it. Admiral

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<v Speaker 1>with your global experience, how do you think our foes

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<v Speaker 1>around the world, those that would, you know, not wish

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<v Speaker 1>us well? How did they view yesterday, high fives, Beijing, Moscow, tyrant,

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<v Speaker 1>pun Yang, caracous, greatest day in recent dictator history watching

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<v Speaker 1>this unfold, and I'll give you two specifics to be

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<v Speaker 1>aware of. Uh Russia will be leveraging this for intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>gathering inside the United States, and they will seek to

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<v Speaker 1>prolong this agony by getting into the social networks, getting

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<v Speaker 1>into our cyber nets, as we saw them do just

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<v Speaker 1>recently in the fire Eye hack China. I think, unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>may miscalculate and decide this might be a good time

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<v Speaker 1>to do something pretty dramatic in Asia. Could that be

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<v Speaker 1>leaning in very hard on Taiwan. Could it be further

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<v Speaker 1>crackdowns in Hong Kong? They just rounded up yet another

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<v Speaker 1>round of the protesters in Hong Kong. Makes it pretty

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<v Speaker 1>difficult for us as we turn to our allies, partners,

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<v Speaker 1>and friends to generate a team that can stand in

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<v Speaker 1>the face of this. When we can't even defend our

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<v Speaker 1>own capital. It's a disgraceful day for the United States. So, Admiral,

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<v Speaker 1>the average serviceman or woman serving on the high seas

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<v Speaker 1>or some far flung army post, how do you think

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<v Speaker 1>they're processing what they saw yesterday? Many of them are

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<v Speaker 1>just you know, kind of waking up and seeing the images. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's face one fundamental fact about those in the armed forces,

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<v Speaker 1>their volunteers, who swear an oath to the Constitution of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States to support and defend that constitution. What

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<v Speaker 1>they saw yesterday was a blatant attempt by tens of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of rioters incited by the President, to interrupt that

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<v Speaker 1>constitutional process. It's very significant that this occurred not just

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<v Speaker 1>on any given Tuesday, but on the days which were

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<v Speaker 1>certifying the democratic results of the entirely legitimate election. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think the average serviceman and woman is shaking their

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<v Speaker 1>head at disbelief at this threat to the constitution. I

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<v Speaker 1>know they are, in fact. And one final questioned an

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<v Speaker 1>updated on your thoughts is uh, the domination of General

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<v Speaker 1>Lloyd Austin moves forward to be Defense Secretary. Some controversy there.

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<v Speaker 1>You've written about it. Give us an update. Um, he

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<v Speaker 1>will be confirmed. We ought to, as a general proposition,

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<v Speaker 1>look for individuals to lead the Department of Defense who

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<v Speaker 1>have been out of uniform for a long time. But

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<v Speaker 1>General Austin brings a great deal of experience in the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East. I know him personally, extremely well. He's a

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<v Speaker 1>rock solid professional. He will be confirmed. Um, we need

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<v Speaker 1>to get the new team in place across the board

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<v Speaker 1>as quickly as possible. The next thirteen days are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be dangerous for this country until we do. James Trevitus,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much to Emeralds Trevinus of course, with

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<v Speaker 1>among others of Carlisle group. I can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>his books. Maybe it's a good time, after what we

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<v Speaker 1>saw yesterday to look at his leader's bookshop bookshelf. Further,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful set of about fifty

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<v Speaker 1>books from people like General Austin as well. The divise

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<v Speaker 1>between a good senator from Texas and the gentleman from

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<v Speaker 1>New York State, Cruz and Schumer going at it yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure many view on radio and TV observe so

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<v Speaker 1>much of this moment just extraordinary, the back and forth

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<v Speaker 1>and of course off camera, some real emotions. Someone used

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<v Speaker 1>to the emotion of politics is Kathy Hocle. She's from Buffalo,

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<v Speaker 1>New York. She is the Lieutenant Governor of New York

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<v Speaker 1>and joins us from a lockdown New York City as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Hocle, we have not touched the pandemic since about

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<v Speaker 1>three pm yesterday afternoon. How locked down is your New

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<v Speaker 1>York City right now? Well, basically, I would say the

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<v Speaker 1>restaurants are still not open. We have I had outdoor

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<v Speaker 1>dining last fight, had a hammoger on a street next

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<v Speaker 1>to a heater, so that is available to people who

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<v Speaker 1>are hungry. Not ideal, but it's in recognition that we're

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.320
<v Speaker 1>doing everything we can to keep the infection right down.

0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.079
<v Speaker 1>If you just see your neighboring states were surrounded by

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.480
<v Speaker 1>states with the numbers of the go up. You clearly

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 1>can't go to a Broadway play. You're not going to

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>go to any man yet. But I didn't get the

0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 1>sense of lockdown because people are still working here still,

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, still a live city. So I think lockdown

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 1>over the states where we are right now, Lieutenant Governor,

0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 1>we cannot ignore Washington. Matthew Pottinger resigning your midnight from

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>the Trump White House, and moments ago se NBC mentioning

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 1>that Mr Mulvaney will resign from a Trump administration. You

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>are in the executive branch. When you d people an

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:29.120
<v Speaker 1>executive branch, Lieutenant Governor, how do you move forward? You

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>just hold on. You have people around you, hopefully put

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 1>the interest of this country first and do everything they

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>can to personally contain Donald Trump until sanity reigns once

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 1>again in this country and Joe Biden takes his zot

0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 1>of office on January Secies. We have to get to

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 1>that date. It seems like an eternity from now, but

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>if we can just get the people around him who

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.560
<v Speaker 1>understand that the verity of what he's done, inciting people

0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:57.560
<v Speaker 1>to riot and leading an insurruction, they have to understand

0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 1>that there are consequences in our country. We have a

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.160
<v Speaker 1>constitution that must be adhered to. So I am an

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>executive branch. This will never happen in the state of

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.000
<v Speaker 1>New York because we would never elect someone who has

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 1>is destructive of our democracy as someone like Donald Trump.

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.760
<v Speaker 1>But that's what happened. He lost the election. I think

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>that's the message around the world. He did not win,

0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 1>and in just a few short weeks we're going to

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>have Democrats who have who put the constitution first, apparently

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 1>over what Republicans are doing running the Senate, running the House,

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 1>and now running the White House. So well have era

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 1>that's going to allow us to sweep clean all the

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 1>vestiges of Donald Trump and what he has done to

0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 1>our nation. Katthew, how much will a Senator Schumer led

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 1>Senate help in the New York State budget? The New

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 1>York State prospects going forward? Unbelievably, It's going to be great, Lisa,

0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 1>And what we talked about, you and I had this conversation.

0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>It's like twentieth visit on your on your show, and

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 1>we talked about what's it going to take for New

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.520
<v Speaker 1>York to be able to come back. We have a

0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 1>fifteen billion dollar hole. We need that from the federal

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 1>government and Senator Schumer, who knows New York State better

0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.960
<v Speaker 1>than anybody. He goes all sixty two counties just like

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 1>I do. He knows what this state need that he'll

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:10.680
<v Speaker 1>be in a position of power. Now. It's not just

0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 1>wishing we could get this done, it is being able

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 1>to deliver with President Joe Biden, who also understands you

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 1>can't starve the state and local governments when you're trying

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 1>to get a vaccine in the arms of three million people,

0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 1>not once, but twice. So we need more resources to

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.560
<v Speaker 1>offset our our losses, our financial hits that we took

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.880
<v Speaker 1>in order for us to be able to fund programs

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.840
<v Speaker 1>like the vaccinine vaccine rollout, which is going to stave

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 1>this country, and we get that into people's arms sooner,

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 1>the sooner we come back, the sooner we can sooner

0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:41.760
<v Speaker 1>we can supercharge our econmy So it's going to be

0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.360
<v Speaker 1>very good having him that position. So, Cathy, where are

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 1>we in terms of the vaccination schedule? When will you

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:51.440
<v Speaker 1>and I be able to go and get inoculated? At

0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 1>least I'm gonna assume that you are under the age

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.200
<v Speaker 1>of seventy five, so you'll not be in one A.

0:16:55.280 --> 0:17:02.800
<v Speaker 1>You're not in one bould you know I would disabuse

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 1>you of your notion, Kathy, carryad Tom you will be

0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:11.320
<v Speaker 1>in the same categories I am. I'm not being a

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:18.399
<v Speaker 1>very good politician. You're killing it. Republican in New York, Please,

0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:22.640
<v Speaker 1>we have one A people, the frontline health scare work

0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 1>is still being vaccinated in our hospitals. We've tripled the

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 1>number of vaccines that have gone out just in the

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.200
<v Speaker 1>last week. So it all is a function of supply,

0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 1>so we get more vaccines where government right now, Kathy,

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna cut you, Kathy, I'm gonna cut you off.

0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 1>This is so important. Peter Hotez of Baylor College of

0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:45.000
<v Speaker 1>Medicine says, we need to open up Yankee Stadium, and

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the only way we can do that is money. Money, money.

0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:53.239
<v Speaker 1>You Republicans, Democrats in every state don't have it. What

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:55.359
<v Speaker 1>do you need from the federal government to do a

0:17:55.520 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 1>Hotez Yankee Stadium vaccination program? Oh, we we will do that.

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.080
<v Speaker 1>We're going to open up the Javits Center I we

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 1>can do. We already have plans for this time. We

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 1>have thirties six hundred and seventy two locations identified. We

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.920
<v Speaker 1>simply have to get to our first category of healthcare

0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>workers done in a priority. Are they go first when

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 1>it comes time for mass vaccinations. There is no limit

0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:23.800
<v Speaker 1>to the locations We're going to do this. It will

0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:27.919
<v Speaker 1>be massive locations. What funding you need from the Biden administration?

0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 1>Come on, you've got democratic president right now. You need

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:36.240
<v Speaker 1>one billion to get this done. To get that done,

0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 1>but also to offset the loss and revenues so we

0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:40.359
<v Speaker 1>can continue to fund these workers. We don't want to

0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:44.560
<v Speaker 1>have cutbacks or police, law enforcement healthcare workers, which is

0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 1>what we're facing in our budget. In March, Lieutenant Governor Okay,

0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:53.679
<v Speaker 1>this this has been an incredibly important conversation. None of

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:59.399
<v Speaker 1>it matters Bills cults first time since Can your Bills

0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 1>keep it on? Of course they can. The momentum is

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 1>with us. You saw the energy and guess what we're

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:08.720
<v Speaker 1>going to actually have fans in the stand. We've accomplished

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:12.880
<v Speaker 1>being impossible this year, an amazing season, lifting the spirits

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.200
<v Speaker 1>of people, not just in Buffalo but all over the state.

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.440
<v Speaker 1>And I'm going to say this is America's due team.

0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.040
<v Speaker 1>So America will be rooting for the Buffalo Bills this

0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 1>weekend as we have our first first playoff game at

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.760
<v Speaker 1>home in twenty five years. So I'm really energized by this.

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be a great game, Governor, no doubt.

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 1>In the seventh row fifty yard line as well. Cathy Yako,

0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:38.360
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, greatly appreciate that. Uh this one

0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:43.480
<v Speaker 1>the Russell two thousand, John from Capri emails in and says,

0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:49.399
<v Speaker 1>talk about Penn National Gaming, Caesar's entertainment plug, power Sun Run.

0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:53.760
<v Speaker 1>How about Darling Ingredients up twenty percent per year, A

0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:58.120
<v Speaker 1>moonshot coming off of March for Darling Ingredients of Irvine

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>Tech or Irving, Texas ten thousand employees. Good morning, Mr Stewart,

0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Randall Stewart and and Darling Ingredients. They collect animal processing

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>by products and used restaurant cookie oil. That's the moon

0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 1>shot of the Russell two thousand. That's the moon shot.

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:16.879
<v Speaker 1>Had not heard about it. You just sent it to me.

0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:19.160
<v Speaker 1>Look at it. This has got a ten billion dollar

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 1>market cap, Tom So this is this has been around,

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:28.520
<v Speaker 1>it's it's sizeable, and they're in the animal processing byproduct business.

0:20:28.520 --> 0:20:32.560
<v Speaker 1>Tello meat, bone meal, all the good things John Gallab

0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:34.920
<v Speaker 1>uses every day. John Gallab with credit sweez. This is

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:38.280
<v Speaker 1>an important conversation because of his view to two thousand

0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:40.680
<v Speaker 1>twenty one, John, before we get to tech, in your

0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.760
<v Speaker 1>view on the bigger market, how do you adapt and

0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:48.919
<v Speaker 1>adjust to a small cap surge? You know, we we

0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:52.240
<v Speaker 1>just did a note on this. In the consumer space,

0:20:52.400 --> 0:20:56.880
<v Speaker 1>the small caps are a much better plays on reopening.

0:20:57.160 --> 0:20:59.919
<v Speaker 1>And if you look at UM, you know, you know,

0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:04.320
<v Speaker 1>like for consumer discretionary UM, the big cap you know,

0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Internet retailers are are you know, very different than those

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 1>mall retailers and restaurants and hotels that make up the

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.040
<v Speaker 1>small cap universe. And that's just one example on where

0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.320
<v Speaker 1>I think there's real solid fundamentals here in the near term.

0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:20.800
<v Speaker 1>I've got to get to your call. John, it's literally

0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:23.480
<v Speaker 1>an outlier. I believe you told us the last time

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:27.919
<v Speaker 1>you visited stay with tech. Is that true? It was?

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:31.720
<v Speaker 1>And you know, we we just um today tom um

0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>up our number for the broad market. But we also

0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:38.560
<v Speaker 1>took what we call tech plus that all that broadly

0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:42.800
<v Speaker 1>defined tech basket from overweight to neutral. And I did that.

0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:46.280
<v Speaker 1>I did that with such pain because I'm such a

0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:49.680
<v Speaker 1>believer that over the long run you want to ride

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:52.720
<v Speaker 1>this trade hard reopening. I think they're gonna be a

0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:54.399
<v Speaker 1>source of capital and this is what we love. Folks

0:21:54.400 --> 0:21:57.040
<v Speaker 1>have Bloomberg surveillance, real news from a major house, John

0:21:57.040 --> 0:22:01.400
<v Speaker 1>Galbin Credit Suite. With that shift, do you mean, particularly

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 1>if it's a taxable event, do you cash it in

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:09.520
<v Speaker 1>or do you just reallocate new funds away from whatever

0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:15.000
<v Speaker 1>your tech disbelief is. You know, most of our clients

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 1>are running tax except um money, so they're not worrying

0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:22.240
<v Speaker 1>about pension plan or endowment. If you're an individual, the

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:24.639
<v Speaker 1>if I believe that you're gonna want to be in

0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:26.320
<v Speaker 1>tech for the next two or three years, you don't

0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:28.439
<v Speaker 1>want to pay a lot of taxes to make that

0:22:28.480 --> 0:22:32.120
<v Speaker 1>switch in your portfolio. However, if you have new funds

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:36.560
<v Speaker 1>today allocative to things that are more cyclical, um, that's

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:38.199
<v Speaker 1>the time you get paid over the new ye like

0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:41.680
<v Speaker 1>the Boston Red Sox. So Jonathan. So if if I'm

0:22:41.960 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 1>maybe taking a little off the table in tech or

0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:47.640
<v Speaker 1>reallocating some capital, am I jumping both feet into that

0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:53.359
<v Speaker 1>cyclical reopening trade? Well maybe maybe maybe let me like

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of twist your question a little bit. Where do

0:22:56.040 --> 0:22:59.879
<v Speaker 1>you play the reopening trade most effectively? And I don't

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:01.639
<v Speaker 1>think it's the suff It's not in the stuff that

0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I just upgraded. That the areas that think they're gonna

0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:06.280
<v Speaker 1>be a big win are actually gonna be in healthcare

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:10.080
<v Speaker 1>and financials. And let me explain quickly why for each um,

0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:12.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of us have not been to the dentist

0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:15.200
<v Speaker 1>or to a doctor. And when we go back out there, Um,

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:18.359
<v Speaker 1>you don't think about a healthcare company as being cyclical,

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:21.760
<v Speaker 1>but there's gonna be companies that process your your blood

0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 1>tests and and you know, or people who have held

0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 1>up putting braces on their kids. All those kinds of

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:31.680
<v Speaker 1>things get a big cyclical reopening jump. Even though they're

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:35.240
<v Speaker 1>not really cyclical companies. The banks. If you have interest

0:23:35.280 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 1>rates move up a little like they did today, if

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:40.399
<v Speaker 1>the credit environment improved because of these checks, we're all

0:23:40.440 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 1>gonna get people gonna pay their bills with that, those

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:46.760
<v Speaker 1>are all really great for the banks. So while I'm

0:23:46.800 --> 0:23:51.040
<v Speaker 1>moving up your industrials and materials and energy, I still

0:23:51.160 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 1>rather be in financials and healthcare in this environment, all right, Johnathan,

0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:58.640
<v Speaker 1>want the questions to have about this rotation trade which

0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:01.320
<v Speaker 1>has worked so well, and the folks that were on it,

0:24:01.400 --> 0:24:05.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of August September, We're suppression is kind

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:07.680
<v Speaker 1>of the legs that it has. I know, I could

0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:10.199
<v Speaker 1>buy Amazon and Apple and stick them away for a

0:24:10.359 --> 0:24:13.200
<v Speaker 1>decade and not have to think about the story. What's

0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 1>the Historically, how long does this rotation into cyclicals typically lasted? Well,

0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:21.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's it's a funny thing if if you

0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 1>take a look at since let's say September one, um

0:24:25.160 --> 0:24:28.280
<v Speaker 1>and values beaten growth over that period, it all came

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 1>down to four days. Only the four days were the

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 1>three days when you got big drug announcements from you know,

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:36.439
<v Speaker 1>Fiser and Maderna and Astra Zeneca, and the day that

0:24:36.520 --> 0:24:40.119
<v Speaker 1>Janet Yellen was selected to head Treasury by by Joe Biden.

0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:42.200
<v Speaker 1>If you took those four days out, there's no value

0:24:42.280 --> 0:24:44.760
<v Speaker 1>rotation here whatsoever. And I do think there's gonna be

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:48.639
<v Speaker 1>a really a a cyclical trade. But it's going to

0:24:48.720 --> 0:24:51.440
<v Speaker 1>be when you and I go and get airline tickets

0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:54.280
<v Speaker 1>for our summer vacation because we realized that we're gonna

0:24:54.280 --> 0:24:57.520
<v Speaker 1>have we we have been vascinated. That's the that's the

0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.280
<v Speaker 1>mother of all trades. And the reason that I put

0:25:00.280 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 1>this the the made the chain today is how close

0:25:04.000 --> 0:25:06.960
<v Speaker 1>do you want to get to that May June July

0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:10.919
<v Speaker 1>vaccine date for yourself before you rotate? The market's going

0:25:10.960 --> 0:25:13.640
<v Speaker 1>to move ahead of that. My call today was don't

0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 1>be too cute, don't wait to the last minute, because

0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:17.359
<v Speaker 1>somebody else will have made money on the trade. And

0:25:17.400 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 1>this is really really important, John, I mean, the market

0:25:20.040 --> 0:25:22.879
<v Speaker 1>always discounting them out. How far out is the market

0:25:22.880 --> 0:25:27.040
<v Speaker 1>discounting now July of this year or next year or

0:25:27.040 --> 0:25:30.360
<v Speaker 1>the year following. Where's the reach now, the mental reach

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:36.160
<v Speaker 1>of the market, you know, Tom, it's the single biggest

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:38.600
<v Speaker 1>question that we're getting from the smartest headge from guys,

0:25:38.640 --> 0:25:41.480
<v Speaker 1>who do you think how long do you wait. How

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 1>long do you wait before that July event before the

0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:46.720
<v Speaker 1>market's going to discount it? Three months? Six months? And

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 1>if you're going to try to get too cute and

0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:52.199
<v Speaker 1>try to time it perfectly, you're gonna miss it. And

0:25:52.240 --> 0:25:55.480
<v Speaker 1>if you wait for people to actually buy their concert

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 1>tickets for a music festival this summer, the trade is

0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>already over. So that's why we put it in now.

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Even though I'm probably a little bit early, I just

0:26:05.560 --> 0:26:07.200
<v Speaker 1>think I have no choice but to but to get

0:26:07.240 --> 0:26:10.200
<v Speaker 1>in early, all right, just gives a quick overview of evaluation.

0:26:10.280 --> 0:26:12.119
<v Speaker 1>And we've seen this market just rock it up from

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:17.119
<v Speaker 1>the March lows without a commensurate increase in earnings. Should

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 1>should I be concerned? Um? No, I don't think it

0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 1>should be concerned evaluation. But here's what you have. At

0:26:23.880 --> 0:26:27.000
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the year, um the year last year

0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>you had, the market was trading at an eighteen multiple.

0:26:29.640 --> 0:26:31.159
<v Speaker 1>At the end of the year, it was trading at

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:34.080
<v Speaker 1>a twenty two and a half um. The peak in

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 1>the internet period was like is So this is a

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:40.560
<v Speaker 1>very high multiple, and it's also moved a lot. There's

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:42.919
<v Speaker 1>a whole bunch of reasons why I think that these

0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:45.679
<v Speaker 1>multiples are gonna stay in overtime drift even higher. The

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:48.040
<v Speaker 1>first thing is there's a lot more tech in the

0:26:48.080 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 1>market today than in the past, and those are higher

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:53.159
<v Speaker 1>pe names. It's just a mix of companies, that's number one.

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:56.320
<v Speaker 1>Number two, companies are doing a better job of generating

0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 1>cash flow from every dollar of earnings in sale, so

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:02.440
<v Speaker 1>you're actually getting more money back from companies over time

0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.679
<v Speaker 1>when you invested them. And number three, interest rates are

0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:08.199
<v Speaker 1>are a lot lower. And whether you look at that

0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:11.080
<v Speaker 1>as a cost of capital for company or lack of

0:27:11.080 --> 0:27:15.160
<v Speaker 1>an alternative, all of those things say that multiples are

0:27:15.200 --> 0:27:18.440
<v Speaker 1>going to stay in the twenties, probably drift higher over interesting.

0:27:18.520 --> 0:27:21.840
<v Speaker 1>John Gold, thank you so much. With Cardio Suite's hugely valuable.

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:26.159
<v Speaker 1>Uh there. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

0:27:26.520 --> 0:27:31.439
<v Speaker 1>Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

0:27:31.600 --> 0:27:35.920
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0:27:36.040 --> 0:27:39.920
<v Speaker 1>Keene before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.

0:27:40.359 --> 0:27:41.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm Bloomberg Radio