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Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side

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Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.

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Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when

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Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's

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Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the Buffet with

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Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy at buffet.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Buffet with Chad and Scooch. I

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Speaker 1: am Shad Milman. She's getting one last week off before

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Speaker 1: college football begins in the NFL begins. So today's podcast

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Speaker 1: is quite possibly the best podcast of the summer. Two

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Speaker 1: of my favorite people, Chris the Bear, Felika Stanford, Steve Coughlin,

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Speaker 1: esp in sports betting geniuses. You know them from the

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Speaker 1: Behind the Bets podcast the college years. You know them

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Speaker 1: from the s VP Sports Center, you know them from

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Speaker 1: College Game Day. All in it today, Fellas. We've got

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Speaker 1: so much college football to talk about, and as you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm very busy. I can't spend too much time dewey dallying.

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Speaker 1: Someone's already laughing, Yeah, how are you doing money? Good man? Listen.

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Speaker 1: I'm just surprised we can get Stanford on the phone

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Speaker 1: between all your late night TV show stuff and the

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Speaker 1: fact you go on vacations so frequently. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm still waiting for the lunch offer you said you

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Speaker 1: were gonna give me like three years ago. The fact

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Speaker 1: you'll call into the podcast is a miracle to me.

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Speaker 1: I'll stop it. Come on, We've been trying to do

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Speaker 1: this for two months. I think it's good to finally

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Speaker 1: get it done. Well, college football is almost beginning for

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Speaker 1: EKA is going on the road, FeliCa, where are you

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Speaker 1: going next week? But we we'll well, we'll be in

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Speaker 1: South Bend next week for Michigan and Notre Dame, so

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Speaker 1: we know it's always better to work the UH the

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Speaker 1: season open into an on campus site, a lot better feel,

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Speaker 1: a lot bigger feel, a more enjoyable show. But if

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Speaker 1: we're asking before that, I will be in UH a

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Speaker 1: lot of Vegas this weekend for the Super Super Contest

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Speaker 1: season preview and talk and meet up with some people

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Speaker 1: and hopefully to pass out some winners and some and

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Speaker 1: some stutent knowledge. By the way, thank you for that.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I was I was about to

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Speaker 1: thank you because without you, my involved them in this

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Speaker 1: would be would be nil. Because I had a pinch

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Speaker 1: hitting substitute for you one year, and they liked me

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Speaker 1: so much they've invited me back each year and kind

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Speaker 1: of kick you to the curb. Yeah, it's interesting how

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Speaker 1: I have not been invited back to that conference since

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Speaker 1: I recommended you we want offense totally. Wally Pittany, Why

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Speaker 1: do they invited Stanford to that conference? Because because he's

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Speaker 1: he's he's the only person in the world that takes

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Speaker 1: more vacations in the urban street in me. Oh man,

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Speaker 1: that's she. If I get invited, I would go, what

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Speaker 1: is that one happenin the bo in your cod To

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Speaker 1: make this happen, I will I will make sure that

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Speaker 1: that that that J and Rozz extend the formal invitation

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Speaker 1: to Steve Nikkie. What I'm really hoping that we could

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Speaker 1: do what we need to have it, don't We need

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Speaker 1: to do this for March Madness. We need to get

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Speaker 1: out there, get bracket marathon and just kind of let

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Speaker 1: it roll through the first weekend of the n C

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Speaker 1: Double A Tournament. Now that you talked about that would

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Speaker 1: be that would be great, great television. We should turn

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Speaker 1: everybody's favorite show on ESPN. Plus. I'll take that bet

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Speaker 1: into a twenty four hour bracket marathon. It's it's a shame.

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Speaker 1: Nobody on this call has the power and the ability

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Speaker 1: to make that happen. Mm hmm oh, I do my friend,

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Speaker 1: believe you me. Hey, listen, when you're out there, Felka,

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Speaker 1: what uh what are you gonna make bets on? What

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Speaker 1: are you gonna put your money on? When you get

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Speaker 1: out there, I'll probably be looking at some college football

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Speaker 1: win totals that um I've given out already a bunch

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Speaker 1: of them on the Behind the Bets podcast and with

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Speaker 1: with Gil on on on a numbers game out there

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Speaker 1: on the visa and so there there are a couple

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Speaker 1: of those that were looking forward to well on. One

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Speaker 1: thing that I'm still curious about would be that great

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Speaker 1: prop that that Chris and and and Vinny and Jimmy

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Speaker 1: have its south point with the the five teams versus

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Speaker 1: the field to win the playoff. UH. At last at

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Speaker 1: last check, it was the Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, UH, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: and Washington. I think we're md to seventy verse of

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Speaker 1: the field. I wonder if it's come down that comes

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Speaker 1: down a little bit more, that might be something worth

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Speaker 1: planning because I don't know about you, and and and Steve.

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Speaker 1: Can you really see anybody other than Alabama or clem Center,

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Speaker 1: even Ohio State winning the national title? Mm hmmm, uh yes,

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Speaker 1: I do. I think one of the other Big Ten

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Speaker 1: teams can win it. Um, And I mean I take

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Speaker 1: a shot with Auburn Washington. I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: it's I think it's the Washington. With Washington, you get

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Speaker 1: them part of the field. Yeah, oh yeah, that's right. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think the two deferents are Alabama and Clemson. What

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Speaker 1: about Wisconsin? If you like Wisconsin, you could probably get

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Speaker 1: them a hedge type and maybe that's what you do.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's the way to play it. You'll lay the

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Speaker 1: the two seventy or whatever whatever it is, and then

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Speaker 1: you you cherry pick a couple of teams that might

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Speaker 1: be ten, twelve, fifteen to one. That way, if one

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Speaker 1: of those teams do wind up making it, you kind

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Speaker 1: of covered a little bit, if you if you gets right.

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Speaker 1: But gosh it, I have a hard time thinking Alabama

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Speaker 1: or Clemson w win. Yeah, cosin I answer and then

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Speaker 1: can go The idea was Wisconsin to me is I'm

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Speaker 1: not one of these hedging experts, but if you think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna make the playoff, you would pray you set

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Speaker 1: yourself pretty much, Uh, set yourself up really well. I

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Speaker 1: think it's I mean, they have a pretty good road

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Speaker 1: to the Big Ten title game, and the question would be,

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Speaker 1: I mean that line is not going to be a

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Speaker 1: lot in the Big Tent title game, whether they play

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, pen say, Michigan State or Michigan. Right, God,

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Speaker 1: look at what it was, look at look at what

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Speaker 1: it was last year there. I think it was only

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Speaker 1: about four four and a half. Yeah, So I mean,

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Speaker 1: looking ahead, trying to forecast. We asked last week, who

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Speaker 1: do we ask? We asked David Pollock, and he said

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Speaker 1: the best bet to make the playoff or playing their

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Speaker 1: conference standwids of game was Clemson. And then I lie,

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Speaker 1: I mean Wisconsin's gotta be up there along with those

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Speaker 1: odds too. Yeah, that's what I don't get. Like. Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: has such a good offensive line. They are a team

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Speaker 1: that is built to win in their conference. They go

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Speaker 1: their conference championship practically every year. Why aren't they getting

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Speaker 1: more love right now? I think the reason for that

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Speaker 1: is their schedule. And I mentioned this a couple of times.

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Speaker 1: I've been a little bit guilty of it the last

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Speaker 1: few years, like wrestling internally, is Wisconsin good or are

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Speaker 1: they good because they're in the Big Ten West, which

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Speaker 1: kind of stinks of the division and they're just the

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Speaker 1: facto the best team there, kind of like the conversation

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Speaker 1: we have with Iowa a few years back, like Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: is legitimately good this year. Their skill is really good. Uh,

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Speaker 1: defense is great. But it might be a situation where

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Speaker 1: you could potentially looking at three conference losses if they

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Speaker 1: get upset somewhere, whether it's at Iowaha or versus Northwestern

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Speaker 1: or or at Perdue because they have to go to

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Speaker 1: Penn State, they have to go to Michigan and they'll

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Speaker 1: be underdogs in both of those games. So you might

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Speaker 1: be looking at a situation where they're looking at two

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Speaker 1: conference losses there and if someone from the West can

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Speaker 1: pull the upset, maybe with three losses that you can

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Speaker 1: pull pull yourself into a head to head tiebreak and

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Speaker 1: if you get the win, you're in the conference championship

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Speaker 1: game in Wisconsin. Isn't I mean, are the odds of

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Speaker 1: that happening? Probably not great, but I would say there's

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Speaker 1: certainly better than no chance. I think we need to

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Speaker 1: bring some structure to this podcast. Right now, I feel

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Speaker 1: like we got in on like a really interesting bet

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Speaker 1: Felika with sort of those five teams at minus to

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Speaker 1: seventy versus the field, and I think they need to

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Speaker 1: go a little more top down. So what I want

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Speaker 1: to ask Stanford first is basic, basic, and from nation.

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Speaker 1: You've got five teams that you can bet on from

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Speaker 1: a season win total perspective. Forget about futures, because I

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Speaker 1: do believe I agree like you're talking about Alabama, Clemson,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, I think Washington are probably the four teams

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Speaker 1: that will end up in the college football playoff, and

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Speaker 1: those are the teams that you're gonna want to sort

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Speaker 1: of put your money against anyone else you're cherry picking,

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Speaker 1: like you know, against lucking God. But uh, five teams

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Speaker 1: right now season win totals that you feel are undervalued

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Speaker 1: according to the market. I gave out my my win

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Speaker 1: totals on Sports Center and on our podcast earlier, so

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with those. My number one favorite over

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Speaker 1: this year is Boston College. Um, they're around six. You

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Speaker 1: can even I think six and a half. You can

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Speaker 1: get even for a lower number of like minus one

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Speaker 1: or one. I think they definitely win eight games. I

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Speaker 1: think they can win nine or ten possibly how things go,

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Speaker 1: if they stay healthy enough. Chad, no one likes to

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Speaker 1: go to Boston College and play in Chestnunt Hill on

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Speaker 1: the season. Every a CEC team looks to see if

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Speaker 1: they have to go there. Uh, they have the talent

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Speaker 1: to do it. This year. They're the second best team

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Speaker 1: in my opinion on that side of the a SEC,

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Speaker 1: under beneath Clemson. So when you look at that they

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Speaker 1: get Miami at home on one of those Friday nights

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Speaker 1: that that that, I just think it's a setup. I

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Speaker 1: think they could be seven and oh when they play

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Speaker 1: that Miami game on Friday, I think it's October. My

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Speaker 1: next favorite is Cal. Uh, they play five of their

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Speaker 1: nine back twelve games at home. They get Washington, Oregon,

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Speaker 1: and Stanford at home. They have like eighteen starters back.

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Speaker 1: I absolutely love the coaching staff with Justin Wilcox and

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Speaker 1: what he's built with two former head coaches as coordinators.

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Speaker 1: I like Cal a lot to win more than I

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Speaker 1: think you can get them as well as five and

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Speaker 1: a half if you want to pay some juice. UM.

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Speaker 1: Georgia Southern's one that Felik and I actually was the

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Speaker 1: only one that brought up we agreed on. We did

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Speaker 1: them blindly. Uh. They returned to most starters of anyone

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Speaker 1: I've seen. They're gonna go back to the old option

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Speaker 1: they've ran. They brought the off its coordinator back from

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Speaker 1: New Mexico. They'll run some of that pistol option, regular option.

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Speaker 1: Every game on their schedule is winnable. Besides playing Clemson

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Speaker 1: and my other two were I I rolled the dice

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Speaker 1: on Louisville. UM. They play Alabama obviously Week one there

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Speaker 1: over under was seven petrinos one eight or nine, eight

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Speaker 1: or more games uh in every year in the a

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Speaker 1: c C. And I think it's I think what everybody

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Speaker 1: wants or seems to tell you what you want in

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Speaker 1: a conference now, is these top heavy teams so you

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Speaker 1: have a chance for one or two teams making the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: You don't want all these teams to be decent because

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Speaker 1: that hurts your chance of making the playoffs. So I

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Speaker 1: think Louisville could make a make some good on on

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Speaker 1: on some whims with a balanced a CC. Knowing that

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Speaker 1: Chrainel is always gonna have talent there. They don't have

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Speaker 1: the distraction Lamar Jackson, and I like them a lot

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Speaker 1: better this year. I think they can win over seven games.

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Speaker 1: So I think those are all really interesting teams. I

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Speaker 1: think you're missing one and you went with overs and

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Speaker 1: did I ask specifically about overs um because it's just

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Speaker 1: that time of year, Chad, everybody, it's that time of

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Speaker 1: year where you're saying you think your team is gonna

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Speaker 1: be good. Like I was gonna throw out Indiana there,

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Speaker 1: but if they announced this kid Dawkins as the starting quarterback,

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Speaker 1: that's the wrong move. They're not gonna win over five games.

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Speaker 1: Just to let you know, listen, I've been all over

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Speaker 1: the Indiana Produe series on the Big Ten Network that

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Speaker 1: they've been running, and it's just amazing. Um. Given need

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Speaker 1: no faith in Indiana and this football team. UM. But

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Speaker 1: the most to me, the most interesting wind total is

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Speaker 1: actually Nebraska, and it's Nebraska going under. I think people

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Speaker 1: are way overrating the impact Scott Frost can have on

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Speaker 1: that team. In the first year. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: have a huge impact. But but this year they're they're

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Speaker 1: I think they're the type of team that sets up

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Speaker 1: potentially to pick someone off late in the year after

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Speaker 1: get they get basically a full year of the frost

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Speaker 1: that coaching staff, and then they're have to implement that offense.

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Speaker 1: But their defense was so bad last year. I mean

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Speaker 1: they didn't just lose games, they were getting run out

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Speaker 1: of the building like three touchdown plus losses. And there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of improvement that needs to be done there.

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Speaker 1: So you're with me, I am with I am with you.

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Speaker 1: It's a hard number because it feels I don't I

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Speaker 1: don't like totals where I don't think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of wiggle room. It's certainly not one that I would

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Speaker 1: uh that that that I would go here. I would

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Speaker 1: lean under. Though, if if if Chad Millman handed me

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Speaker 1: a hundred dollars this weekend at the at the West

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Speaker 1: made Tuoper book and I had to go over underreach

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Speaker 1: you have to bet Nebraska over or under, I would

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Speaker 1: go under. You say that because I'm the shark. Here

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Speaker 1: we go Sharks. I haven't heard one person say over

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Speaker 1: for Nebraska this year. Uh for you know, everybody seems

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Speaker 1: to be out on them. The schedule is I mean,

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Speaker 1: they play all the big dogs, that's the problem. But

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be three and oh and that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a tough one to SWI. I mean, and they have

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Speaker 1: Illinois in their schedule, they have in Minnesota. I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be awful this year. Uh, that Purdue game

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Speaker 1: is huge. So I don't know. I don't, I don't.

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Speaker 1: I'm totally biased because my best one of my best

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Speaker 1: friends is often as a coordinator, So I'm always in

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Speaker 1: on Nebraska. I'll be at their game at Wisconsin this year.

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Speaker 1: Um it's tough, man, It's it's tough. But everybody that

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Speaker 1: you know throws the Big Ten, you know that they

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Speaker 1: won't have the the bodies to do things. Um, I

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Speaker 1: know they are concerned about their defense going into this season.

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Speaker 1: So that's an interesting one because that's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: tough one. That's gonna you're not gonna know until the

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Speaker 1: end of that season. On that one, I like getting

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Speaker 1: them done early. Chet listen. By the way, everybody who

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Speaker 1: is interested in college football should go to Action network

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Speaker 1: dot com or download the Action Network app because we

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Speaker 1: have Colin Wilson, who's a college football savant, doing many

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Speaker 1: betting previews for literally every single team in the division

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Speaker 1: formerly known as Division one College football. What is it

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Speaker 1: like a teams. We have a hundred previous right now,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Nevada Wolfpack season preview, the Wyoming

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Speaker 1: Cowboys season preview, in the San Diego State uh season preview.

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Speaker 1: You can get all of it. And he also was

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Speaker 1: one of the guys who was all over nebra Aska

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Speaker 1: and the under Stanford. You just said something really interesting.

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Speaker 1: Your best friend is the offensive coordinator for Nebraska. Who

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Speaker 1: is one of my really good friends? Yes? Who old Chaid?

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Speaker 1: I don't have best friends anymore? Really? Yeah? You too

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Speaker 1: cool for that, Like you don't have like a guy

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Speaker 1: like he's my guy. This is a guy I'm talking

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Speaker 1: to you like four times a week. I'm texting with

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Speaker 1: them constantly. We're talking about our kids, We're talking about everything. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't have one of those cards. Leka, do you

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Speaker 1: have one of those? No? No, no want? I mean

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Speaker 1: why time? Yeah? Who who wants to hear about my kids? Guys,

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Speaker 1: you're fantasy that's like your fantasy football team. I don't

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Speaker 1: care about your fantasy football team. Don't tell me about

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Speaker 1: what you lost this week. I feel like you're missing

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Speaker 1: out in an important relationship in life. I have a

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Speaker 1: best friend. I talked to him like four times a week.

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Speaker 1: She was like, here in high school, maybe I was.

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Speaker 1: I was like that, I was like the freshman year

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Speaker 1: in college, I gotta call like every single one of

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Speaker 1: my high school friends, like oh I miss all these guys,

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Speaker 1: and like then then you know you got like that

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Speaker 1: phone do because and you're like, yeah, you know what,

296
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Speaker 1: I knowing It's really not that important that I that

297
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Speaker 1: I call all my boys at home. I actually want

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Speaker 1: to be able to go out on a Thursday Friday night.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like you guys could use your best friend,

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Speaker 1: is what it really sounds like. Can you can you

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Speaker 1: be my best friend? Chair piling on me because I

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Speaker 1: have one who I like to stay in contact with

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Speaker 1: and you guys don't. And I'm trying to make fun

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Speaker 1: of me for it. Uh, I'm not trying to make

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Speaker 1: fun of you. Do you guys want me to be

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Speaker 1: your best friend? I said, I want you to be

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Speaker 1: my best friend. I am in I am all in perfect.

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Speaker 1: I will be the felikuea best friend. There's no doubt

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Speaker 1: out my day is made. My week. Just sent me

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Speaker 1: the best text ever. It just says, let's have lunch

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Speaker 1: in West Hartford. When now you just send me a

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Speaker 1: text and will you be my best friend? I would,

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Speaker 1: but I can't over extend, and he asked me first,

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Speaker 1: Oh that is well time. But here's my point. How

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Speaker 1: many people that are considered your closest friends because of

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Speaker 1: your status in the sports media world and because of

317
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Speaker 1: your history as a college football Navy And by the way,

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Speaker 1: my other best friend, Right Thompson is calling me right now. Um,

319
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Speaker 1: that's someone I would want to be. I'm sure he's

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Speaker 1: in a great mood today. By the way, Right Thompson

321
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Speaker 1: through an unbelievable bowl party for us when we had

322
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Speaker 1: game day uh in Oxford a couple of years ago.

323
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Speaker 1: Awesome party, believable host. There is nothing better than a

324
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Speaker 1: Right Thompson weekend in Oxford, Mississippi. It is about. It

325
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 1: is as gluttonous and heat and his stick and fun

326
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 1: and like high class and living like the Faulkner Southern

327
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Speaker 1: literary life of nothing but like food and drink and

328
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Speaker 1: football that you can possibly imagine. It is so good.

329
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Speaker 1: I swear to God. Like my best friend who I

330
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Speaker 1: talked to like four times a week, he went with

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Speaker 1: me for a weekend to visit right once and we

332
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Speaker 1: went through like an entire flask by ourselves of this shine. Yes,

333
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Speaker 1: he had home made. It was I was like, wait

334
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Speaker 1: this is and I was like, wow, this is the

335
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Speaker 1: same back. It was a big mistake. It was a

336
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 1: really big mistake. It ended up like I was on

337
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Speaker 1: the couch with one ft on the floor the whole

338
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 1: night just to keep myself from spinning. Like that's you

339
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 1: know that it was one of those nights. And then

340
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 1: in the morning like it was the greasiest breakfast you

341
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Speaker 1: could possibly possibly have, just to keep yourself from uh

342
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Speaker 1: losing everything from the night before. Are you guys still so?

343
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: But you're still best friends after that trip. That's nice,

344
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Speaker 1: even closer than ever. That's what you get with the

345
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Speaker 1: best friend. You have those experiences. But here's my point, Stanford,

346
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Speaker 1: I digress, Uh how many people in your phone? Like

347
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 1: are are you in regular contact with? Who are coaching

348
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 1: in college football right now? Uh? Probably ten to twelve?

349
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Speaker 1: And what schools are your closest of your good friends at.

350
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Speaker 1: I can't give you all that affirmation I gave you.

351
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Speaker 1: I already gave you inside info. That's why I was

352
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Speaker 1: interested because like, I've never heard you say that before.

353
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Speaker 1: Yeah you want I mean if you wanted to go

354
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Speaker 1: off to lunch one time. As we're not best friends,

355
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Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe I could give you some info

356
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Speaker 1: off the record. Why don't you just text me? I

357
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: just did text me. I'll text you this question. You

358
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 1: can text me back the answer. Where are we FeliCa?

359
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 1: Tell me about your wind totals? Well, but being that

360
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,680
Speaker 1: Steve was like all positive and everything, I'm gonna, I'm gonna.

361
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna turn it to to underland. I do have

362
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 1: some I have some overs as well, but a couple

363
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,199
Speaker 1: of unders that I was looking at. Two in the

364
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 1: SEC Missouri, I'm worried that last year was a little

365
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: bit of a fluke. Their offense was great. Uh, they

366
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 1: didn't beat a team with the winning record. Uh. This year,

367
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,959
Speaker 1: you get Tennessee in Florida, both on the road. They

368
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Speaker 1: still got Georgia, they got Bama, they have to go

369
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: to Columbia South Carolina. Uh, they got Purdueing the nonconference,

370
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Speaker 1: you'll lose Josh Hype as your coordinator. Uh. The SEC

371
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: East was a little bit of transition last year. I

372
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Speaker 1: guess I think I think Tennessee in Florida will be

373
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: better just because of the coaching changes. Um. Again when

374
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Speaker 1: when I when I wrote the column and I gave

375
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: it out first, it was seven and a half I

376
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: saw at a Westgate. I don't know if that number

377
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: is still there, but I think Missouri getting to eight

378
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: wins will be uh, will be hard to come by.

379
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Speaker 1: So like Missouri under the seven and a half and

380
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 1: elsewhere in the SEC, I thought Vandy under four and

381
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: a half was another one that I really needed to

382
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 1: take a look at. I mean, you one of your

383
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: wins last year with a non conference winted home against

384
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Speaker 1: Kansas State. Now you stubbed you substitute in a trip

385
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 1: to Notre Dame for a home Kansas State game. Uh,

386
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to win two SEC games, I think

387
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: too to potentially get to five. That'll be all miss

388
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: Tennessee probably those last two games of the year. And

389
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 1: and that's banking on them beating Middle Tennessee in the opener,

390
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: and that's certainly not going to be an easy task.

391
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Speaker 1: So I thought, Uh, Vandy four and a half. I

392
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Speaker 1: know the I know Shermer's back and the other offense

393
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 1: has got some guys, but that defense was horrible last

394
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Speaker 1: year and Derek Mason as good as a defensive coaches.

395
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: He is, he's got a lot of work to to

396
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: to to make that defense better. And then one more

397
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: under before I go to a couple of overs in

398
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: the in the MAC Central Michigan four and a half. Uh,

399
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 1: they're only gonna be favorite. I have in three games

400
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 1: main Ball State and Bowling Green, and some people think

401
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: that Ball State and Bowling Green might even be improved

402
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: this year. Outside of Jonathan a. Ward, they're running back.

403
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: They don't have anything coming back. They have one of

404
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: the lowest percentages of returning production in the country. Uh.

405
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: There were four and o in one possession games last year.

406
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: Somehow beat Western Missigan in Ohio. You. Uh, there's a

407
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 1: really good chance that they don't win a road game.

408
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 1: I think Central Michigan under four and a half is

409
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: it's one to look at now to end on a

410
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: positive note, give out the unders and now I'll give

411
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: us some overs. Uh. Steve and I talked about Georgia Southern.

412
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 1: He talked about him as as we both. It was

413
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: funny how we both came to a an independent conclusion

414
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: when we walked in and we we we put our

415
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: list down. We both at Georgia Southern and We're like, ah,

416
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: we like it, and then uh we went on there.

417
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: So I won't go into detail on Georgia Southern, but

418
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 1: I'm with you there. I thought Wyoming at six and

419
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: a half was a really good one. Um. I think

420
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: people are gonna have a knee jerk reaction at all.

421
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: They lost Josh Allen. How are they gonna be any better?

422
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: But they won seven last year and that was with

423
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 1: Josh Allen hurt and had a bad loss to San

424
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 1: Jose State. Uh, their defense is probably gonna be the

425
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 1: best in the Mountain West. Uh, You're replace Iowa and

426
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: Oregon on the schedule with Missouri and Washington State and

427
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: Washington it goes to Laramie. And we know that Wazoo

428
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: has had a tendency in the past to lose some

429
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: of these early season nonconference games. That'll be a really

430
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 1: tough spot. I think for Mike Leeches team, if they

431
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: just win the games that they should win, that their

432
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: favorite that that that's seven and five right there. That

433
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: doesn't include a toss up game against you against Utah

434
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: State and even potentially pulling an upset against Wazoo. I

435
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: think defense is great. I think Wyoming over six and

436
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: a half is a good play. I like Buffalo in

437
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: the Mid American Conference. Uh, they get a really good

438
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: scheduled break in that they got six games at home

439
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: that I think there's a really good chance they win

440
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: all six of them. Ten State, Delaware, State Army AKRA,

441
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: and Eastern Michigan in Miami, Ohio. That's six right there. Uh.

442
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 1: If they win all those and they get a win

443
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: against Central Michigan or Bowling Green, two of the teams

444
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: that I think will be among the weaker ones in

445
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: the MAC, that's seven. And they also got Rutgers and

446
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: on the road early in the year, and Rutgers might

447
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: have some off the field situations where they have to

448
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: have some suspensions. I wouldn't give I wouldn't make it

449
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: beyond the doat a reason that Buffalo goes there and

450
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: and really compete and potentially pulls an upset Tyree Jackson

451
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 1: and Anthony Johnson are probably the best quarterback wide receiver combination.

452
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: UH in the MAX. I think Lance Leap holding his

453
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: fourth year there, We'll get Buffalo to a ballgame and

454
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: then one more we're going a fun row. Now ul

455
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 1: Monroe over five and a half. Uh. Their defense was

456
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 1: horrific last year. UM, but our FPI numbers here have

457
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: them right around seven wins, so that's a little bit

458
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: of a wiggle room. I think they got three wins

459
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 1: for sure. They got a brutal nonconference schedule, They got

460
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: A and M on the road all miss and I'll

461
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: probably lose to Arkansas State, but they got it. A

462
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: ton of offensive guys back UH, Caleb Evans and Marcus Green,

463
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: a lot of production. Their head coach, Matt Vider, was

464
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: really really successful. That McNee stayed in over within school,

465
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: he's familiar with the talent there. Did you just just

466
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: think about the improvement that we're talking about here. They

467
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 1: scored thirty seven and the lost last year, and they

468
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: scored fifty and lost the game last year. I mean,

469
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: I t how bad their defense was. I don't think

470
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: it will be that bad this year. And I think

471
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: you on Monroe can get to six and get to

472
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: a ball alright. So there's a lot of good stuff

473
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: that you said there. Number one, as I mentioned, Colin

474
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: Wilson from the Action Network has been writing previews for

475
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: every single team, and today he has Wyoming up and

476
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,679
Speaker 1: he also has Wyoming going over UH, saying that they

477
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: even without Josh Allen, the Cowboys can improve. You mentioned

478
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: something very specific, which was returning production. Give me the

479
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: stats that both of you guys look at when you

480
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: start to grade a team going into its next season.

481
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,479
Speaker 1: What matters because like in college football, there is so

482
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,199
Speaker 1: much turnover, so many things change. Tell me what you

483
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 1: think about, like where does returning production? You know what

484
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. Here's what I just decided. It's a

485
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: revolutionary idea. I'm gonna ask one question instead of seven

486
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: at one time. Okay, FeliCa, who's gonna go first? I'm

487
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: you know what. I'm gonna start with Stanford, because Felika

488
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 1: just did so much talking and you're my new best friend. Stanford. Um,

489
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: what is the key stat the key metric, the key

490
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: number that you look at when you are grading a

491
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: team for future for season win totals heading into a

492
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: new season. I'll let Felicia keep talk to metrics. D

493
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: I keep it pretty simple. I look at head coach, returning,

494
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: quarterback returning, offensive line returning, and then on defense. These

495
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: guys play so many UM guys on defense. Now, you know,

496
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: when you have to defend against the spread starters doesn't

497
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 1: mean that much to me. On defense, I looked at

498
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: returning tacklers so you could get a feel of the

499
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: guys that are, you know, playing the most. Not a

500
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: lot of the guys you who starts don't necessarily play

501
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: the most. So I mean offensive line, you could sort

502
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: of look at that, but teams are are shying away

503
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: from that, you know, unless they want to get like

504
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: a true freshman reps early in the season. But it's

505
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 1: head coach, it's quarterback, it's offensive line, and obviously the schedule. UM,

506
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: I think the schedule as opposed, I don't. I don't

507
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: when I look at the schedule, I don't necessarily think about, hey,

508
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: they're gonna play seven teams that were ranked last year. UM.

509
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: And I look at, you know, those same other components

510
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: I talked about for my team, I'm looking at the

511
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: other team to gauge whether you know, win loss, and

512
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: then from that you're looking at season total over and unders.

513
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: I love that returning tacklers. That's awesome. So in of

514
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: the teams that you haven't mentioned or we're returning tackler

515
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: is a big deal. In all of the teams that

516
00:29:55,360 --> 00:30:00,479
Speaker 1: you mentioned as going over their season win totals, U uh,

517
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: so you want more teams. I'm just curious to know,

518
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: like to what the decisions you made, Like there's a

519
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 1: lot of really cool stuff in that idea, and so

520
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: just tell me, Like we're returning tackle, there's an important

521
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: factor in your decision for the five teams that you

522
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 1: mentioned off the top that you have going over their

523
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: season win totals. No, not necessarily, I don't. It's not

524
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: it's it's I think I'll put it this way. I

525
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: think all the other components matter more to me. But

526
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: when I look at teams like Stamford, a team, you know,

527
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: people talk about the returning players, but you look at

528
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: that defense and they weren't even good last They weren't

529
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: a normal Stamford defense last year, and they lost a

530
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 1: ton of production, which I think is what Felika talks about.

531
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: You know when I say returning tacklers or that, and

532
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: I think that's where you're talking about your returning production.

533
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: Got all right, FeliCa, Ya know what? What? What what?

534
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: Steven on a couple of the very key ones. I

535
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: am not as big on the returning quarterback as as

536
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: a lot of people are being look at last year.

537
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: I mean Jake from was a freshman. I mean, the

538
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: teams that win the national championships are play for the

539
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: national championships. Lately, like our returning starting quarterback is like

540
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: not important. Uh the numbers have beared that out. I

541
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: would much rather have an an offensive line and a

542
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: good running back to be able to be a little

543
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: bit of a security black. And I think Georgia was

544
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: a great example of that last year. Uh, their their

545
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: line was solid, um and you had Dick Chump and

546
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: Sonny Michelle, two guys you could just head turn and

547
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: hand the ball off to when you knew you were

548
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: gonna be okay. I'm I'm big on the production. Like

549
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: Steve said, it's not necessarily people who start, it's people

550
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: who come in and produce. And you've seen so many

551
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: platoon situations where whether it's a wide receiver or running

552
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: back or even on on defense where where guys will

553
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: get a start, but uh that they maybe just be

554
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: situational players and you'll bring in uh players that more

555
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: fit better with with the game playing later on in

556
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: terms of what the what the opponent is doing. Uh,

557
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: I'm that And then the schedule I do look at

558
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: essentially because in in terms of a win total and

559
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: expectation for a team. I look for spots that I

560
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: really don't think that that team is going to win.

561
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: And I mean, Reef Davis and I how to have

562
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: a saying to like, if you're not good enough, a

563
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: loss is gonna find you. I mean, you can get upset.

564
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: But I mean, if they're if they're like Wisconsin, like

565
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: they gotta go to Penn State and they got to

566
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: go to Michigan, and that's those are two brutal road

567
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 1: games for them. And that's kind of why I think

568
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: they're they're They're ceiling is ten and two, and I

569
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: know their win total was ten And that's why I'd

570
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: be willing to take a shot at an under their uh,

571
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: just because yeah, maybe you're maybe you're playing for a

572
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: push if they do lose those two games in that ship.

573
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 1: But I think I think it's a better chance they

574
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: go nine and three than they do eleven in one.

575
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: All I heard was that you went after my best

576
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: friend Stanford and said that the concept of returning quarterbacks

577
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: doesn't matter, and that's one of the two things that

578
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: is most important to him. I thought you were I

579
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: thought you were my best friend. You should be sticking

580
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: up for me. I am your best friend, Stanford, You're wrong. Well,

581
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: in terms of Georgia, I I mean they had Jacob eeson,

582
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: so like that quarterback situation, you would have you would

583
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: have I had them rank pretty high last year because

584
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: of that, you know, I I get we're bear seeing.

585
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: I mean, and that's that's the tribute to these young

586
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 1: guys where you're getting these spread guys that come in

587
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: and play. You know, they're ready to go. They're they're

588
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: they're more ready to quarterbacks have been in um in

589
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: in prior years. Where I'll take one of the instances

590
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: where I think it's a h huge letdown is like

591
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: look at Oklahoma. I don't think people are giving enough

592
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: credit to what Baker Mayfield did for that team, and

593
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: I think that's a huge, huge spot to have to

594
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: come in to fill at Oklahoma. So I have them

595
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 1: dropped off this year because I don't even have winning

596
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: their conference the biggest shoes to fill in the country.

597
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 1: You think or his or do you think it could

598
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 1: be sick one Barkley or if someone else, Oh no, Mayfield,

599
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,439
Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't even think it's close. Well,

600
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: that's really going out on a limb there Stanford saying

601
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: that the best quarterback in college basketball, who won the

602
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: Heisman and when was the first they're taking in the draft,

603
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 1: is gonna be the biggest shoes to fill in college football.

604
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: He asked me a question. I answered it. By the way,

605
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 1: it was Consonants. The highest ranked team from the Big

606
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 1: Ten of the preseason full continent is four in Ohio

607
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 1: status size. Well, how much of that is because of

608
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: what's happening right now? I think these votes were due

609
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: all of this came out, so I'm I was a

610
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: little surprised by that was confidentially gotta a first points vote.

611
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,720
Speaker 1: Here's another story that we have up on Action network

612
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 1: dot com today. I'd like your reactions to it. What

613
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: is your take on the ties pricing in the futures

614
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: market right now? Uh, they are um plus two ten

615
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: to win the national title and their win total is eleven.

616
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: The over is minus one fifteen, so you gotta pay

617
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: a little bit of a premium on the over. What

618
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 1: do you think of those two prices? Over priced, under price?

619
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 1: You said plus to ten to win the title, plus

620
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 1: to ten to win the title, eleven win total, eleven

621
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: win totally. I mean you have to put there not

622
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: gonna go ten and two. I mean they have two

623
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 1: games that I think they probably what could potentially lose

624
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: at Atlas Hugh and and and then they they sim

625
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: stated at home. I mean, they haven't lost that many

626
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: regular season games and since like to that year, I

627
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: mean they don't. They don't. They don't lose more than

628
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: one regular season game. So I mean I think over eleven,

629
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,879
Speaker 1: I mean, I hate to have to go perfect to win,

630
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: but I mean I don't see any way you can

631
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 1: play the under eleven and one is I mean ten

632
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,879
Speaker 1: and two is like, I mean, they'll be I mean,

633
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: forget it that that's a that's a doomed season. If

634
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: they go to ten and two. I mean, eleven and

635
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 1: one is the worst case scenario in terms of the

636
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 1: price on winning the title. It seems short, but it

637
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: plus two ten. If you think they're that good and

638
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 1: they're gonna be in the National championship game, would you

639
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: like to be holding a money line bet on Alabama

640
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 1: plus two ten in that game? That's basically what you're

641
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:55,959
Speaker 1: looking at. Would correct. They'll be mine, They'll be minus something.

642
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: They'll be favorite against Clemson if they may they'll be

643
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: favorite anybody else. What's your take, Stanford, Um, I'm uh

644
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: might have a certain uh in on Alabama minus one

645
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 1: forty to win the SEC. So I'm I'm in on

646
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: the tide this year. Uh I don't. I'll tell you what.

647
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 1: I'll give you something here. I think something to be

648
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: uh on the lookout for is what the totals are

649
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: in Alabama games because with this offense and what you're

650
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: reading about and what the possibilities are, um, they could

651
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 1: be they could be putting up points this year as

652
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: opposed to you know, just grinding out games and you know,

653
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 1: beating teams three. I could see some of them scoring

654
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: some more points this year. Um I, I don't know.

655
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 1: I I one of my favorite things I ever did

656
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: was last year I bet them to win the title

657
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 1: after they lost at Auburn and and that, and to

658
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: ended up being one of like as profitable as you could. So,

659
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: I mean, if it's well, I think I got him

660
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 1: at plus four or fifty or something. Um so. And

661
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: I think once they got in the playoff they were

662
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: maybe one. They weren't minus I know that, and they

663
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: just jumped in quickly because a year before that, I

664
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: think Clemson went to like seven to one after they

665
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: lost to Pick. So you you're you're exactly. That is

666
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: a great strategy with some of these really short priced

667
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: teams if if you if they lose, one loss doesn't

668
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: knock yeah from playoffs contention, and if they win, the

669
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: prices isn't gonna go down much anyway. But if they lose,

670
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 1: you're gonna get a much better price. Like look, i mean,

671
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: especially like week one while we're talking Chad, Look, I mean,

672
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: if you're believing in in Michigan and Notre Dame and

673
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: Washington or Auburn, like those are all those are both

674
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 1: out of conference games, and if they run the table,

675
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: they're they're they're gonna they probably get they'll probably make

676
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 1: the playoff. Whoever you know loses that first week if

677
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: they were to run the table, So that might be

678
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: your best price, like grow something on the loser of

679
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: those games. If if you like what you see or

680
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 1: you know, you're taking a shot. And potentially Ohio Ohio

681
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 1: State TCU could be another game like that. If Ohio

682
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 1: State happened to go to Arlington get upset by TCU,

683
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: everything's still in front you if they run, if they

684
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 1: win the Big Ten. They're they're gonna be in the playoff.

685
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: I say that that being the last two years the

686
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: the Big ten champ or two left Big ten champ

687
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 1: has been left out of the playoff. But uh, but

688
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: you're you're getting in terms of price, in terms of value,

689
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 1: Ohio State with a loss into that game of TCU

690
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: gonna get a much better price than than you would

691
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: right now. Did you guys know that Alabama has two

692
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: games this year in which they are favored by forty

693
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: four points or more? Uh? Their favorite? I think it's

694
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: a Louisiana Lafayette. They are a forty four and a

695
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:03,760
Speaker 1: half plane favorite twenty nine. And on November seventeenth against

696
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: the Citadel, there are fifty six and a half playing favorites.

697
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 1: I can already I can already tell you that Danny

698
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: Sheridan will be all over the Citadel plus the fifty

699
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: six and a half on November seventeenth. He loves, he

700
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: loves loading up on the on those SCS teams, and

701
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: that like the the the we call I call I

702
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: call it the Urban Meyer Game because Urbans really the

703
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 1: person that brought it to that conference where he would

704
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 1: always play a play a patsy like that before the

705
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: before the Florida State game and then the SEC championship game,

706
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: we bring in we we bring in a nobody in

707
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 1: that that's one of them. I know Danny I always

708
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: likes playing that, uh, playing those scs or group of

709
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 1: five teams that come in and play the uh the

710
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 1: the SEC games before rival Rue weekend. This is the

711
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 1: story I think we're gonna do is when's the last time,

712
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 1: when's the last time the team was savored by more

713
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 1: than forty five points multiple huns in a season? And

714
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,959
Speaker 1: here's another story I'm gonna have us do you guys

715
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: can't steal this? Uh who over the last twenty years

716
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:16,800
Speaker 1: has the highest spread projected spreads heading into the season,

717
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:21,240
Speaker 1: Like I feel like it would have been Tim Tebow's

718
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 1: Florida team about ten or eleven years ago, where every

719
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: week the Braska maybe would be another one that they

720
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,280
Speaker 1: were they were laying they were laying serious one every week.

721
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: But that might be Obama's gonna be a double digit

722
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: favor and every game this year, right yeah, every game

723
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: I'm looking No, there's uh, there's one game right now, Yeah,

724
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: Mississippi State. There's seven and a half place favor really Yeah. Wow, Okay,

725
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 1: I was gonna say I thought it was gonna be

726
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: the LSU had like jump on that right now l

727
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 1: s U. Yeah that that that that will that has

728
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: to if that if you can get ten and a

729
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 1: half right now, Uh, I would late ten and a

730
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: half right now because I think that has the potential

731
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: to go up dramatically based on how I think l

732
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 1: s U. Uh, their season is gonna go. I'm not.

733
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 1: I'm a I'm an l s U seller this year,

734
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: and I think there's a really good chance they're three

735
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 1: and four when they when they had that Mississippi State game.

736
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 1: And if if that's the case, you're looking at l

737
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 1: s U is like a monster, like unprecedented home dog.

738
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 1: But uh, I'm not. I mean, I know Burrow is

739
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: gonna come in and maybe try and solidify that offense.

740
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 1: But they you talk about like no returning starters and

741
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: no returning production, and that's kind of where you are

742
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: offensively with LSU, like no returning production whatsoever. I'm feel

743
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 1: awful because it's like my favorite it is my favorite

744
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: college college town, and I feel like I've been a

745
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 1: seller of ls you the last five six years. I

746
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: should rephrase, I should rephrase. These are the projected lines

747
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: according to the Action Network. These are not actual lines

748
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: right now? You know what is this is this Action

749
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 1: Now we're you know, got good validity. I don't know

750
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: if it remains to be seen. Jerry still out. There's

751
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: no Action Network sports book yet, getting alright, listen, we

752
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: got a lot of people some infult give them a

753
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: little Alabama Alabama eleven and a half by the way,

754
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: according to a south Point right now on their games

755
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: of the year. So you're you're your your your numbers

756
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 1: are right there. We're pretty close. Is this year too?

757
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: Is this year two? For the Action Network projected you know,

758
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 1: given out projected lines? No, this is like, dude, we

759
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: didn't even exist last year and we we we launched

760
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: in mid January of last year, the whole season. That's right,

761
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: I see, you know what, This is the right way

762
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 1: to end the podcast because now I can officially player

763
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: Chris Felika as my best friend any doubt now. But

764
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, we came around like you started there. Stanford

765
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: tried to make a run. He was a little bit

766
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 1: like Clemson, felt a little bit short, had a lot

767
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 1: of enthusiasm and in the end of the day, he

768
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: coughed it up just like the tigers. All right, tell us,

769
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: I will tell you though that like you both can

770
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 1: be my best friends. And thank you for coming on

771
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: the podcast with me. Any taught my friend. All right, later,

772
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 1: I'll see you. I'll see you on our text chain. Yeah, yeah,

773
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 1: that's right. We we we need to have that group

774
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 1: text chain where we can text story at each other's

775
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: Starbucks pictures in the morning or oh, look look at

776
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 1: look at my dog how he's rolling in mud and

777
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 1: look at the egg white sou fla. I made this

778
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: morning text chain of just emoji's all right, now, that's

779
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: that's cut for me to go. All right, see, thank

780
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: you guys,