Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros's down to place your bets.
Speaker 1: It's me Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this is
Speaker 1: BP NFL. It's week eighteen. It's time to look at
Speaker 1: props and some incentives too, because some guys could get
Speaker 1: paid on the last week of football. Hopefully all of
Speaker 1: you watching and listening are some of those people. But
Speaker 1: to help me break it all down, of course the Undertaker,
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson and the Welsh as well. Welsh, good to
Speaker 1: see you, my friend. I know we've been doing a
Speaker 1: lot of baseball a baseball channel, getting people excited for that,
Speaker 1: But today's about football and also about finally putting your
Speaker 1: forty nine ers season to bed, right. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: got to be the biggest thing in your mind right now.
Speaker 2: Nothing I've been more excited about. Plus I lost like
Speaker 2: a four figure amount this weekend betting. Actually, you know what,
Speaker 2: I had done nothing but bet against the Niners and
Speaker 2: it worked out. And then Bagman and I put a
Speaker 2: little thing together, road together, and all we needed was
Speaker 2: a George Kittle touchdown at the end of the game,
Speaker 2: which he fell four yards short. And then Josh Doobbs
Speaker 2: only wanted to throw it to his Tennessee teammate and
Speaker 2: then run it in Classic Niner season. Goodbye, by the
Speaker 2: way bets last week, I believe I was two and
Speaker 2: three worst bet of all time Jordan Love dumbest person
Speaker 2: on the planet me, But I did sweep my touchdowns,
Speaker 2: swept both of my touchdown calls. So two three on
Speaker 2: the props, two and zero on the touchdown calls and
Speaker 2: hoping to make it a very very sweet week eighteen.
Speaker 1: Yes, we want to finish strong. Andrew Erickson, how is
Speaker 1: your week seventeen? By comparison?
Speaker 3: I do not remember exactly. I need to check out
Speaker 3: what my picks were.
Speaker 1: I don't know too much eggnog.
Speaker 4: I think it was I think it was a positive week.
Speaker 3: I believe it was three and two, but I will
Speaker 3: recheck the sheet and okay.
Speaker 1: There you go. We'll get back to you after the
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Speaker 1: down low is Betting Pros the app today, and make
Speaker 1: sure you are getting those free premiums for you as well. Again,
Speaker 1: think your sportsbooks for free. And this is a great
Speaker 1: time of year to be using all of these tools
Speaker 1: because we have a College Football Playoff still raging on
Speaker 1: some fun games there. We've also got NFL Playoff starting.
Speaker 1: We got NBA, NHL, Major League Baseball around the corner.
Speaker 1: So let the betting pros app help you make the
Speaker 1: best bets possible and help you become a profitable wagerer.
Speaker 1: Let's start here with Kyle Pitts, of all people. So
Speaker 1: I want to talk about this here because Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1: One of my Bowl predictions going into the season, unfortunately,
Speaker 1: was that he was finally going to bounce back and
Speaker 1: put together that great season we've all been waiting for.
Speaker 1: Alasa did not happen. But it's week eighteen and you
Speaker 1: want to throw a little love his way? Why and
Speaker 1: let's break this down a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you're gonna do the same thing next year
Speaker 2: and he is going to cause chaos. This is on
Speaker 2: the Prediction Show earlier this week, so you shouldn't be
Speaker 2: shocked about this. But it all is going to come
Speaker 2: down to the number, and the number is very low,
Speaker 2: which I get it, it should be. It's Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 2: But yes, I truly believe Kyle Pitts is going to
Speaker 2: end this year just enough that it's going to break
Speaker 2: everybody's brain and they're going to go in and be like,
Speaker 2: you know what, maybe Michael Pennix fixed him. But part
Speaker 2: of the reason also five targets last week four yards.
Speaker 2: Michael Penick has been trying to get him the ball.
Speaker 2: I mean that obviously the very first game in the
Speaker 2: drop pass, the interception disastrous, but he has technically hit
Speaker 2: this number receiving yards only at twenty seven point five.
Speaker 2: He has hit this in two of the last three weeks.
Speaker 2: Crushed it last week. He has had an eleven percent
Speaker 2: first read percentage on the year. Tit Ends usually don't
Speaker 2: have like high first read percentages, so that's not like
Speaker 2: a shocker, but that is well below Week seventeen. It
Speaker 2: almost doubled nineteen percent first read from Michael Pennock. So
Speaker 2: I love that he's getting him more involved. And then
Speaker 2: the topper Carolina one of the worst against tight ends.
Speaker 2: They've actually given up the most touchdowns to tight ends
Speaker 2: on the year. If you're looking at like fantasy points,
Speaker 2: they've given up a decent amount yards to receptions is
Speaker 2: high up there. I think this number is just so
Speaker 2: stupidly low. We're going to talk about him when we
Speaker 2: get to touchdowns. Penix is trying to get him the ball.
Speaker 2: The target share is there. He's not good, but Michael
Speaker 2: Pennix is going to make him decent. And this is
Speaker 2: a incredibly low number for something I feel so confident
Speaker 2: about that. All your brains are gonna be broken and
Speaker 2: people are gonna start looking in at a tight end ten,
Speaker 2: tight end eleven when he should be like tight end
Speaker 2: forty five, Like we just know it's not good, but
Speaker 2: you know what, hey, if you can get it right
Speaker 2: in the midst because he reminds me of old school
Speaker 2: Vernon Davis Joku has the same thing. Stonehands absolutely athletic,
Speaker 2: freak plow over you run super fast. Stonehands can't do nothing.
Speaker 2: So Pennick just gets it right in the numbers and
Speaker 2: he has no choice but to catch it. He is
Speaker 2: going to be able to get some yak after it.
Speaker 2: So just a super low number and Penick seems to
Speaker 2: like him. So twenty seven point five over on the
Speaker 2: receiving yards. I know Ericson loves this one.
Speaker 1: Who doesn't love you?
Speaker 3: I mean you did say you had you said confidence
Speaker 3: in Kyle Pitts in the same sentence, and that goes
Speaker 3: together like water and oil essentially.
Speaker 1: Sure, Yeah, there you go.
Speaker 2: I've never been more confident. He is the He's the
Speaker 2: epitome of Week eighteen production. That's why I'm so calmed.
Speaker 2: This is gonna be dumb. The books won't even release
Speaker 2: the names that you are going to be inundated with
Speaker 2: this weekend because it's terrifying. And once they do, you
Speaker 2: suckers are gonna betting on guys like Jimmy g and
Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs and I probably will too.
Speaker 1: Not right, let's switch gears to Saturday's game. Here, the
Speaker 1: Steelers backfield maybe starting to turn a little bit last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks into Jalen Warren's favor and er ericson
Speaker 1: You're trying to make some money off that.
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm gonna make money like I made last week,
Speaker 3: because I just checked the show sheet from last week
Speaker 3: four and one four and one even thought, are the
Speaker 3: touchdowns the touchdowns?
Speaker 1: And not? Go?
Speaker 3: Let me see actually didn't check the touchdowns?
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 3: DeVante Adams somehowed in score classic and Aaron Jones in
Speaker 3: score either, so did not do well in the touchdown department.
Speaker 3: But for and one and of course actually went own
Speaker 3: to and all the Jets players, So Demante and Breese
Speaker 3: Hall was my other prop. Of course, that's what I
Speaker 3: get for betting on anything related to the Jets, So yeah,
Speaker 3: serves me right.
Speaker 1: It's only taking you eighteen weeks.
Speaker 2: That was our squad right too. It was Breesehall receiving yards,
Speaker 2: I think it was. So that was a failure on both.
Speaker 4: Then squad ride to the h the prison. Yeah, that's
Speaker 4: where we went with Breesaw. It was not fun.
Speaker 3: So for Saturday, my favorite prop is Jalen Warren going
Speaker 3: over his receiving yards over twenty one and a half
Speaker 3: receiving yards and Joe you alluded to it at the top.
Speaker 3: He's kind of taken over this backfield like he's starting
Speaker 3: to edge out Naji Harris. He's out snapped Naji Harris
Speaker 3: in four straight games. He's seen more red zone work
Speaker 3: over the last two weeks than Najie Harris. So I
Speaker 3: think that Jalen wore We would have seen more of
Speaker 3: him throughout the year had he not been banged up
Speaker 3: to kind of start the season, And now we're starting
Speaker 3: to sign and to see it, and especially in a
Speaker 3: game where if it's a little bit more higher scoring
Speaker 3: as we've seen the last couple of weeks. Obviously, the
Speaker 3: Steelers have been trailing in a lot of these games.
Speaker 3: They've had uptick with Jalen Warren usage. So he's at
Speaker 3: least twenty five receiving yards and six of his last
Speaker 3: eight games. Last time he faced the Bengals, caught all
Speaker 3: four of his passes for fifty five yards, including a
Speaker 3: twenty nine yard game. We know the Bengals don't tackle
Speaker 3: very well. They led up a lot of yards after
Speaker 3: the catch. So I think Jayen Warren's gonna be highly
Speaker 3: involved as both a rusher and receiver. I think he
Speaker 3: goes over this line like he's done over basically the
Speaker 3: last month.
Speaker 1: All right, So there you have a Jalen Warren on
Speaker 1: the rise. We'll see where he ends up next season.
Speaker 1: Let's switch over now again to the New Giants and
Speaker 1: Drew Lock coming off I don't know, best game of
Speaker 1: his career, maybe, but we could certainly debate that topic.
Speaker 1: But Malik Neighbors looking at the six and a half receptions,
Speaker 1: prop Welsh, where do you want to go with Melik
Speaker 1: Neighbors And how much confidence do you have in Drew
Speaker 1: Lock coming off what just all last week?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean Drew Locke. Confidence is like a little
Speaker 2: wavering obviously at a good game. But I have more
Speaker 2: confidence Malik Neighbors, who is two catches away from breaking
Speaker 2: the rookie reception record. He's going to smash that. He
Speaker 2: really is, And you know, he's been a great play
Speaker 2: for the majority of the season. With that, even that
Speaker 2: little like period between the quarterback change, he's hit this
Speaker 2: number six and a half receptions is what we're looking
Speaker 2: at for the over. He's hit this in four of
Speaker 2: his last five games. He has had double digit targets
Speaker 2: in four of his last five games. And the Eagles
Speaker 2: playing backups's that's going to be a big key to
Speaker 2: a lot of these plays. Here is when you're looking
Speaker 2: at the like obviously this would be a bad matchup
Speaker 2: in a normal circumstance. Not that he still couldn't hit it,
Speaker 2: but now you're looking at a situation where they're not
Speaker 2: going to be playing all of their studs, especially not
Speaker 2: the majority of the game. So he's also on the
Speaker 2: tails of Brock Bauers, who's a couple receptions above. This
Speaker 2: is an easy play for a guy that has been
Speaker 2: smashing this all year long to end really strong. He's
Speaker 2: gonna break the rookie record. Six and a half is
Speaker 2: a very obtainable number against a backup Philadelphia defense. I
Speaker 2: like this very much, and like you kind of alluded
Speaker 2: to at the top, Drew Lock was pretty good last week,
Speaker 2: like he found his confidence and he gets to carry
Speaker 2: that over into this week. So Malik Neighbors receptions, six
Speaker 2: and a half over comes back to our receiving yard
Speaker 2: reception kind of conversation we have all the time. This
Speaker 2: is in the seventies of yards. Malik Neighbors is one
Speaker 2: of those players, though I'm a more reception confident than
Speaker 2: yard confident guy in him. So six and a half over.
Speaker 1: I remember, you can follow us over. I'm betting pros
Speaker 1: and of course use the prop betcheet sheet, bettingpros dot com,
Speaker 1: slash props. That's where you're gonna find all of this.
Speaker 1: And honestly, you got to stay up the date to
Speaker 1: it because Week eighteen a lot of movement here, a
Speaker 1: lot of guys in a lot of guys out books
Speaker 1: are waiting to put off these lines. So it's going
Speaker 1: to be a really tricky week. It always is. To
Speaker 1: my advice, everybody's look for the overs because nobody wants
Speaker 1: to sackle. That's my best week eighteen I could possibly
Speaker 1: offer you. Unless you're talking about games where two backup
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are playing in which gays, then maybe you want
Speaker 1: to shine the under a little bit there. But back
Speaker 1: to the props here, let's go to green Bay. For
Speaker 1: Josh Jacob, sixty four and a half is the total
Speaker 1: for his rushing yards. Green Bay has moved towards the
Speaker 1: run quite a bit. They're heavily favored in this game.
Speaker 1: Yet Undertaker, you want to go under this number?
Speaker 4: Why?
Speaker 3: Because I don't think they should be favor about thiss
Speaker 3: many points. Because I don't think that they're trying to
Speaker 3: blow out the Chicago Bears. They've already talked about. Josh
Speaker 3: Jacobs has come out and said, hey, I'm not going
Speaker 3: to get my usual compliment of touches, and that's kind
Speaker 3: of how it's been the last couple of weeks. So
Speaker 3: he's rushed under seventy and a half rushing yards in
Speaker 3: four of his last five games, and he's finished under
Speaker 3: his rushing yards prop in four of his last five games.
Speaker 3: So they're weaning off of Josh Jacobs ahead of the postseason,
Speaker 3: where they know, hey, we need you healthy for then
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five touches in these postseason games, not in
Speaker 3: a basically meaningless game against the Chicago ban where they
Speaker 3: don't need to do that much. They know they can
Speaker 3: get up ten nothing, then feed a manual Wilson Christopher
Speaker 3: Brooks to their heart's desire and beat the Bears who
Speaker 3: can't get out of their own way. So I think
Speaker 3: he's gonna go under on his rushing yards prop.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 3: It's actually opened up at seventy five and a half
Speaker 3: really early in the week. It's obviously been bet down,
Speaker 3: but again, he's been under his rushing yards prop four
Speaker 3: of the last five and that's been based on a
Speaker 3: usual workload. Now you're shortening that workload. I don't think
Speaker 3: it's low enough here at sixty four and a half,
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the under.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about incentives here, because Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: has got some paths to make himself some extra money.
Speaker 1: He's not been making the playoffs this year, of course,
Speaker 1: because well the Arizona Cardinals fell way short of that mark.
Speaker 1: They were once at the very top of this division,
Speaker 1: but it did not last very long. However, mister call
Speaker 1: of Duty can find a way to cash in and
Speaker 1: probably get all kinds of cool stuff on PS five
Speaker 1: for the new games and things like that, I imagine.
Speaker 1: So let's try to get it here. So the number
Speaker 1: here for him is twenty eight and a half, and
Speaker 1: I believe you're saying Welsh it was fifty, where he's
Speaker 1: not a reach, he's he's fifty more in this game,
Speaker 1: ye er to get his next level of incentives.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly. But by the way, if if this
Speaker 2: is a Fortnite, I could have done like a v
Speaker 2: Bucks joke. This could have been v Bucks or something
Speaker 2: like that. But I don't know what the currency is
Speaker 2: in Call of Duty. But Kyler Murray can have all
Speaker 2: of it. He can have all of it. So the
Speaker 2: incentive for Kyler Murray is fifty rushing yards and a
Speaker 2: rushing touchdown and it gets a pretty significant bonus. And
Speaker 2: this is something we were talking about. Off air incentives
Speaker 2: are really popular right now. Clearly like it's it's a
Speaker 2: marker that we all get to see that has an
Speaker 2: end game attached to it. So we could you know,
Speaker 2: tell like this player is going to want to do this,
Speaker 2: but it could be dicey with some of these like
Speaker 2: I'm not super interested and I know this sounds crazy,
Speaker 2: but like quarter of a million type of bonuses, like
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's the one where the guy is,
Speaker 2: you know, wide receivers pulling a quarterback in the side
Speaker 2: and being like, let's get this. You know that, I mean,
Speaker 2: they want it. But when you get into like a
Speaker 2: million dollars or in this case, this is a seven
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand dollars potential bonus for a quarterback
Speaker 2: who gets to control every bit of this, so it
Speaker 2: is in his hands to control how much he wants
Speaker 2: to run and if he's going to score that touchdown.
Speaker 2: There to back up running backs right now, on Kyler himself,
Speaker 2: he hit this against the forty nine ers the last
Speaker 2: time they played. He went over eighty, which is huge.
Speaker 2: There's injuries across the forty nine ers defense. This team
Speaker 2: is checked out, and I think this bonus is very
Speaker 2: obtainable and the number dropped you have to love You've
Speaker 2: got to love this for Kyler Murray because he has
Speaker 2: been hitting this. I think he's hit this in two
Speaker 2: straight games. Twenty eight and a half over is a
Speaker 2: phenomenal number.
Speaker 1: But I will tell you.
Speaker 2: Ericson and I were playing before the show. You can
Speaker 2: find fifty plus at plus three hundred and then if
Speaker 2: you would like to do in anytime touchdown and fifty
Speaker 2: plus rushing yards, it's run six and a half to one.
Speaker 1: We did it on DK.
Speaker 2: You can shop for lines over on the Betting pros
Speaker 2: app if you would like to see all the different markets.
Speaker 2: But there are different variations of it. Fifty plus rushing
Speaker 2: yards plus three hundred anytime touchdown plus one seventy six
Speaker 2: and a half for the parlay, but the main play
Speaker 2: is over twenty eight and a half rushing yards because
Speaker 2: that is about half of what he is looking for.
Speaker 2: His incentive for the speedy Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: Love that love that some good stuff there. You can
Speaker 1: run all the way to the offseason. There you go,
Speaker 1: which I know he's dying to do. He can't wait
Speaker 1: to stop playing football.
Speaker 2: Play hide and seek, heids, that's a popular one on
Speaker 2: Call of Duty right now, playing hide and seek.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about a game that Ericson, you and I
Speaker 1: like the total love. We talked about this game a
Speaker 1: little bit yesterday with Terrell. If you missed that show,
Speaker 1: you could go back and watch it. On the YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars heading to Indianapolis's game indoors,
Speaker 1: and these guys just kind of playing one more game
Speaker 1: of football. And I imagine the defenses, especially after what
Speaker 1: we saw last week from the Colts, I don't expect
Speaker 1: too much out of them, and certainly the Jaguars given
Speaker 1: up a lot of points two all year. So the
Speaker 1: number for Mac Jones two sixteen and a half passing
Speaker 1: yards and the undertaker is going over.
Speaker 3: Yes, I am going over because the Colts defense is
Speaker 3: terrible to lay it out. Seven of the last nine
Speaker 3: quarterbacks they face have gone over their passing yards projection.
Speaker 3: And as we talked about earlier in the show, Drew
Speaker 3: Locke had a not just great game against the Colts
Speaker 3: and history game that puts him into Giants' lore, essentially
Speaker 3: of Oh the game where the Giants blew the chant
Speaker 3: with the number one overall pick. No one will forget
Speaker 3: it for Drew Locke. So I like attacking this Colts defense.
Speaker 3: Jacksonville's had a lot of success historically against this Colts defense,
Speaker 3: and Mac Jones has thrown for a ton of passing yards,
Speaker 3: mostly to Brian Thomas over the last five games, gone
Speaker 3: over two hundred and twenty passing yards in four of
Speaker 3: his last five games.
Speaker 4: So I think that this number is just way too low.
Speaker 4: I've seen it open.
Speaker 3: I think it was a two hundred and seven and
Speaker 3: a half yards up to two hundred and sixteen and
Speaker 3: a half passing yards now. But I mean, this guy's
Speaker 3: gonna throw for two fifty plus. Like, I feel pretty
Speaker 3: confident that because look, Mac Jones, he's a backup, right
Speaker 3: He's His incentive is like, hey, I want to look good.
Speaker 3: I want to put up numbers so I get a
Speaker 3: job next year. So I like Mac Jones throwing the
Speaker 3: ball all over the yard and hopefully to my guy
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas Junior, because we need to cash that eighteen
Speaker 3: to one be on leading their rookies in receiving yards.
Speaker 4: So Mac Johns, let's get it down, you man. That
Speaker 4: is all you.
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson was in on that from August and we
Speaker 1: are here in January, and I got to give you
Speaker 1: all the credit for that. One man. You crush the
Speaker 1: BTJ props this year and some of the BTJ numbers.
Speaker 1: You were the first to market on that guy.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, the line dropped By the way, it's around
Speaker 2: like eighty two or eighty for Brian Thomas this week.
Speaker 2: I feel like maybe you could.
Speaker 4: You should ladder it just I mean, I'm not, I'm not.
Speaker 4: I'm not betting more on Brian Thomas.
Speaker 2: You and you should bet more. You should bet more.
Speaker 4: No, no, no, the ladders, the ladders.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 2: I you know what, I have confidence in you. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna better. I'm gonna do over the ninety and one
Speaker 2: hundred taking on Mac Jones.
Speaker 3: That's true.
Speaker 4: Whatever Brian Thomas Juniors, I'll be happy with again.
Speaker 3: He still he's still going to outpace Bowers and neighbors
Speaker 3: because the're breathing down his neck. So we're not out
Speaker 3: of the woods yet.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to more incentives. Courtland Sutton can make
Speaker 1: himself some more money and the Denver Broncos can solidify
Speaker 1: themselves in the playoffs. So in order to do both, Welsh,
Speaker 1: let's talk about the breakdown here, how you want to
Speaker 1: approach Courton's Sutton that week eighteen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cortland Sutton has the biggest incentive that I'm going
Speaker 2: to talk about on here. Let you guys know we're
Speaker 2: not talking about Mike Evans Mike Evans has the biggest
Speaker 2: overall incentive. It's five catches eighty five yards for three
Speaker 2: million dollars. We talked about this last week where you
Speaker 2: know in the Prediction Show where absolutely nailed it two touchdowns,
Speaker 2: so that's over, but his line open up at ninety nine.
Speaker 2: The next biggest is Cortland Sutton, who has a very
Speaker 2: obtainable eighty two yards that he needs eighty two yards
Speaker 2: to secure a two million dollar bonus. So this is
Speaker 2: a scenario where rookie quarterback and wide receivers sit down
Speaker 2: and go, we got to get this number. Five of
Speaker 2: the last six weeks, wide receivers against the Chiefs have
Speaker 2: actually hit this number. He has actually not hit this
Speaker 2: number in four straight games, but the previous five of
Speaker 2: six he had hit this, so it's been a little
Speaker 2: bit of a lull. One of the things I love
Speaker 2: most about this though, backups. The Chiefs are already committing
Speaker 2: to playing backups. I think Carson Wentz is starting You're
Speaker 2: gonna play backups across the board. This is a good scenario.
Speaker 2: Another one I was actually looking at bow Nicks. Bo
Speaker 2: Nicks interceptions, by the way, have been a big He
Speaker 2: is actually thrown quite a bit on at home. I
Speaker 2: think it's like eight of his twelve interceptions have come
Speaker 2: at home, which get me a little bit worried and
Speaker 2: almost wanted to make me taper off of this. But
Speaker 2: they're going to be slinging the crap out of the ball.
Speaker 2: They're playing backups, which made me move.
Speaker 1: Back to it.
Speaker 2: Courtland Sutton seventy two point five ten yards under what
Speaker 2: that incentive marker is and it is very significant. So
Speaker 2: even though he hasn't hit it as a recent again backups,
Speaker 2: he had been on a huge stretch bon Nicks in
Speaker 2: his completion rate, and two million dollars makes me hit
Speaker 2: that number.
Speaker 1: Okay, sticking with the Broncos, bon Nicks is somebody that
Speaker 1: you are wagering on undertaker. Let's find an under you
Speaker 1: like for Bonnicks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to go the under a bon Nix
Speaker 3: and his rushing yard. So I was actually on the
Speaker 3: rushing yards over the last couple of weeks with bow
Speaker 3: Nicks to great success. But that's because the Denver Broncos
Speaker 3: have kind of been in underdog situations where you're seeing
Speaker 3: bon Nicks run the ball a little bit more, but
Speaker 3: in a game where they're playing Chiefs backups, I don't
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see bow run as much. I think
Speaker 3: that they can win this game comfortably, even though I
Speaker 3: think in the fourth quarter they're gonna look up and
Speaker 3: be like, oh my god, the Chiefs made this a
Speaker 3: game somehow, some way. So to agree with Treel Furman
Speaker 3: as we talked about post show last or yesterday, he
Speaker 3: likes the Chiefs a lot covering the spread, as do I,
Speaker 3: but I still don't think that's going to force Bonicks
Speaker 3: into rushing situations. If you can look at what he's
Speaker 3: done this year as an underdog seven and nine towards
Speaker 3: the over, but when he's been favored five and two
Speaker 3: towards the under at this number and last name face
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, he negative five rushing yards. So I was
Speaker 3: also looking at the attempts well, but it was a
Speaker 3: five and a half, and I did think, well, if
Speaker 3: they're kneeling the ball at the end of the game,
Speaker 3: and that could potentially destroy that bet. So that's why
Speaker 3: I feel most confident taking the under on the rushing
Speaker 3: art because I think that they're going to want to
Speaker 3: try just keep things in structure. Get Courtland Slutt in
Speaker 3: his yardage, run the football and not put Bonnicks in
Speaker 3: situations where he's running around, scrambling and potentially turning the
Speaker 3: ball over. So I like the under here on the
Speaker 3: rushing yards for Bonnicks.
Speaker 1: All right, one more pick for both the guys here
Speaker 1: on the props before we get to the touchdown calls.
Speaker 1: Let's go with Jared Goff your huge game Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 1: Big difference between the one spot and the five spot
Speaker 1: in terms of your path to the Super Bowl. So
Speaker 1: I'm on the Viking side of this game. I already
Speaker 1: made that abundantly clear yesterday. Welsh. How are you approaching
Speaker 1: this one from an individual standpoint with Jared Goff?
Speaker 2: Over over all the things, the line is huge, it's
Speaker 2: I think it's didn't move down to fifty six we
Speaker 2: were talking about. I think it was on the same
Speaker 2: show with warm Ericsson and I where it's like when
Speaker 2: it's gone to fifty seven or higher, it's like a
Speaker 2: seventy percent hit rate to the over when it's fifty
Speaker 2: six and a half. Wasn't that what it was? Ericson
Speaker 2: the key number that it was dramatically a bit lower.
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, these are two
Speaker 2: horrifically bad pass stoppers. I mean, you're going to have
Speaker 2: a huge amount of passing yards and it's a huge,
Speaker 2: huge total. So I think that in line tells you
Speaker 2: the first story. Jared got's passing yard line at least
Speaker 2: where I got it, and it's going to probably move
Speaker 2: up a tiny bit two seventy two. He has hit
Speaker 2: this in four straight games. He smashed this in four
Speaker 2: straight games. Projections across the board just cross referencing, even
Speaker 2: outside of betting pro here two ninety four on PFF.
Speaker 2: So that's beautiful and again highest total of the week,
Speaker 2: and the Vikings are giving up the second most passing
Speaker 2: yards in the NFL. They're going to be slinging the
Speaker 2: ever living crap out of the ball. This is under
Speaker 2: three hundred yards. Absolutely love it. I mean you could
Speaker 2: probably even though Darnold doesn't do this as much, I
Speaker 2: wouldn't even hate the idea of putting like a three
Speaker 2: hundred yard pass on both of these guys and putting
Speaker 2: those pieces together, because this bad boy should be throwing
Speaker 2: the ball left and right. Dan Campbell's going to be
Speaker 2: hyper aggressive. Anything under really, anything under three hundred for
Speaker 2: golf is in play here but two seventy two is
Speaker 2: a smash all right.
Speaker 1: One more for you, Andrew Ericson has to do with
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley. Sixty two and a half is the number
Speaker 1: for the receiving yards you're going over or under.
Speaker 3: I'm going to take the over on Calvin Ridley and
Speaker 3: his receiving arts prop because not only is it contract Sison,
Speaker 3: but it's also milestone Sisson as some of these players
Speaker 3: have nothing to play for. But hey, it'd be cool
Speaker 3: to get a thousand yards, right, I want to hit
Speaker 3: that milestone, even though we're playing seventeen games now and
Speaker 3: all the records that need to have these asterisks next
Speaker 3: to them because they're adding in so many extra games. Look,
Speaker 3: he's fifty nine receiving yards away from a thousand yards.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: There's been a lost season for the Tennessee Titans. They're
Speaker 3: starting two quarterbacks in this game. So Calvin Ridley's going
Speaker 3: out there, Hey, get me my thousand receiving yards. I
Speaker 3: got paid in the offseason. Now I want to get
Speaker 3: my yardage. So this is a low bar for him
Speaker 3: to pass. He's gone over sixty two and a half
Speaker 3: receiving yards back to back games. Chicka Konquo is also
Speaker 3: banged up on the injury report, Tyler Board is hurt,
Speaker 3: so I mean he's the number one receiver. He's been
Speaker 3: the number one receiver for the Titans all year long.
Speaker 3: And the Texans we don't know how long they're going
Speaker 3: to play their starters for, so I'm not worried about
Speaker 3: any type of lockdown coverage from them from Stingley. And
Speaker 3: he also had ninety three receiving yards last time he
Speaker 3: faced the Texans, So I think the game plan for
Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans is going to feature two players, one
Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley and one that we will get into when
Speaker 3: we're talking about the touchdown calls.
Speaker 1: All right, So more to come of the touchdown calls.
Speaker 1: And remember the touchdown score Report of bettingpros dot com
Speaker 1: slash touchdown is still available for you if you're looking
Speaker 1: for an edge and touchdown bets, and I know you are.
Speaker 1: Our Touchdown Score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop
Speaker 1: bet odds and projections toyle but identify the very best
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown bets. So head to bettingpros dot com slash
Speaker 1: touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis. Today, I'm going
Speaker 1: with Jackson Smith and Jigba. The Seahawks are done, but
Speaker 1: JSN has been a breakout star. Plus one thirty five
Speaker 1: is the number I'm getting right now. I want to
Speaker 1: lock that in for him as Gino tries to finish
Speaker 1: on a high note here with the Seahawks, and then
Speaker 1: give me Jordan Addison in the night game. He's been
Speaker 1: a touchdown machine. Jefferson, the number was a little too
Speaker 1: juice for me, so I'm gonna go with Addison instead.
Speaker 1: Plus one twenty seven you're getting welsh h You started
Speaker 1: with Kyle Pitts and you're gonna end with Kyle Pitts today,
Speaker 1: aren't you.
Speaker 2: Pretty much? I'm going full Psycho. We're gonna get y plus.
Speaker 1: You've gone full Pits in Week eight team.
Speaker 2: One seventy five plus one seventy five, And again I
Speaker 2: would just point out no team has given up more
Speaker 2: touchdowns the tight ends on the year than Carolina and
Speaker 2: it's it and Kyle Pitts got that last week. So
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be another touchdown. I think the
Speaker 2: yards are going over and it's gonna be just enough
Speaker 2: for us to keep in it. I'd love to get
Speaker 2: two to one on but one seventy five is pretty good,
Speaker 2: and this is a deeper play. I don't This is
Speaker 2: more of like an Ericson type of play where you
Speaker 2: get those four or five hundreds. But this is a
Speaker 2: good week where you're going to get some of these.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are going to be playing the backups, they're
Speaker 2: not going to be playing their starters, and that created
Speaker 2: a bunch of really interesting opportunities. And this one just
Speaker 2: jumped out to me. Maybe you could play a couple
Speaker 2: different other guys. I'll be honest with you. I did
Speaker 2: look at Noah Gray, but I don't know how much
Speaker 2: Noah Gray would even play because he's like a pseudo starter.
Speaker 2: But five to one plus five hundred on Justin Watson,
Speaker 2: I love that play because he should be one. He's
Speaker 2: kind of the primary receiver whenever he does come in,
Speaker 2: like especially as a backup, he's going to play that
Speaker 2: primary receiver role. I don't know what Marquis Brown would play.
Speaker 2: I don't know much of what you'll see for Xavier Worthy.
Speaker 2: I expect to see some Juju and some Justin Watson,
Speaker 2: and I think you might be able to get a
Speaker 2: big long touchdown from Justin Watson. So five to one
Speaker 2: on a Watson touchdown when he should get significant, significant
Speaker 2: reps this weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Erickson, wrap us up. Let's get some
Speaker 1: guys in the end zone.
Speaker 3: Tony Pollard, as I alluded to, I like the Titans
Speaker 3: running back here. Taji Spears is probably not gonna play
Speaker 3: in this game. Tony Pollard has been actually practicing this week.
Speaker 3: It's like for the first time in six weeks that
Speaker 3: he's actually showed out to the practice. They were like, hey,
Speaker 3: this guy's on the team, right, So Tony Pollard eighty
Speaker 3: three rushing yards away from two hundred and fifty k bonus,
Speaker 3: two touchdowns away from another two hundred thousand dollars. So
Speaker 3: if he's playing in this game, they're gonna give him
Speaker 3: the rock in the end zone. So again going back
Speaker 3: to what are the Texans level of effort, especially around
Speaker 3: the goal line and Taji Spears. Interesting enough, the last
Speaker 3: two times that these guys have played together, Spears has
Speaker 3: had four touchdowns versus Pollard's one. So I think they
Speaker 3: get Pollard into the end zone with Spears not available.
Speaker 3: So I like him even at minus one twenty five.
Speaker 3: And then my chiefs bet that I like is DeAndre
Speaker 3: Hopkins because there is any incentive to get one of
Speaker 3: these Chiefs a touchdown, it's Hopkins because he got just
Speaker 3: one touchdown. That's a five hundred thousand dollars touchdown catch
Speaker 3: for DeAndre Hopkins again in the twilight of his career.
Speaker 3: He wants to get as much money as he possibly can.
Speaker 3: And you know, if he's in the huddle, Carson Wentz
Speaker 3: is thrown in the ball because he's gonna command. Carson
Speaker 3: wants to throw him the ball no matter what. So
Speaker 3: I like the touchdow nods with Yonder Hopkins again. And
Speaker 3: if he's not active, then you get your money back.
Speaker 3: So I like taking a flyer on Hopkins.
Speaker 1: There you go. You're gonna get some Carson Wentz this weekend.
Speaker 1: You're gonna get hopefully a great Sunday night game. Week
Speaker 1: eighteen certainly going to be a wild one at that.
Speaker 1: Make sure you are hanging out with us at Betting
Speaker 1: Pros as well. Plus when Wildcard week comes, we've got
Speaker 1: a lot of live streams coming up, including a live
Speaker 1: one live betting during one of the Wildcard games. We're
Speaker 1: working on that too, So get very excited here. Make
Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments
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Speaker 1: the Wildcard Game two as we get closer and closer
Speaker 1: to the NFL Playoffs beginning, and don't forget to download
Speaker 1: that VP app today. That'll do it for us. But
Speaker 1: the story of the game goes on for the Welsh
Speaker 1: and the Undertaker. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 1: Enjoy Week eighteen.
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