WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 18 Player Props Picks and Predictions (Ep. 640) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.680 Welcome in everybody to betting Pros's down to place your bets. 0:00:03.680 --> 0:00:06.160 It's me Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this is 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.640 BP NFL. It's week eighteen. It's time to look at 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:13.399 props and some incentives too, because some guys could get 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.080 paid on the last week of football. Hopefully all of 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:18.439 you watching and listening are some of those people. But 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:20.640 to help me break it all down, of course the Undertaker, 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:24.880 Andrew Erickson and the Welsh as well. Welsh, good to 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:26.920 see you, my friend. I know we've been doing a 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.840 lot of baseball a baseball channel, getting people excited for that, 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:33.080 But today's about football and also about finally putting your 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:35.480 forty nine ers season to bed, right. I mean, that's 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:37.440 got to be the biggest thing in your mind right now. 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.800 Nothing I've been more excited about. Plus I lost like 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.680 a four figure amount this weekend betting. Actually, you know what, 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.519 I had done nothing but bet against the Niners and 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:48.760 it worked out. And then Bagman and I put a 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:51.400 little thing together, road together, and all we needed was 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:53.680 a George Kittle touchdown at the end of the game, 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.400 which he fell four yards short. And then Josh Doobbs 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:58.880 only wanted to throw it to his Tennessee teammate and 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:02.320 then run it in Classic Niner season. Goodbye, by the 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:04.240 way bets last week, I believe I was two and 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.520 three worst bet of all time Jordan Love dumbest person 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.720 on the planet me, But I did sweep my touchdowns, 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.120 swept both of my touchdown calls. So two three on 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:16.399 the props, two and zero on the touchdown calls and 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:19.800 hoping to make it a very very sweet week eighteen. 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.399 Yes, we want to finish strong. Andrew Erickson, how is 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:24.280 your week seventeen? By comparison? 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:26.880 I do not remember exactly. I need to check out 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:27.800 what my picks were. 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:29.080 I don't know too much eggnog. 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:31.080 I think it was I think it was a positive week. 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.200 I believe it was three and two, but I will 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.520 recheck the sheet and okay. 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:37.800 There you go. We'll get back to you after the 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:42.400 scheduled commercial break for Betting Pros the app that's right 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:44.880 down low is Betting Pros the app today, and make 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.120 sure you are getting those free premiums for you as well. Again, 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.120 think your sportsbooks for free. And this is a great 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.240 time of year to be using all of these tools 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:56.680 because we have a College Football Playoff still raging on 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:00.480 some fun games there. We've also got NFL Playoff starting. 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:03.279 We got NBA, NHL, Major League Baseball around the corner. 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:05.800 So let the betting pros app help you make the 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:09.960 best bets possible and help you become a profitable wagerer. 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:14.000 Let's start here with Kyle Pitts, of all people. So 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:16.200 I want to talk about this here because Kyle Pitts. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.160 One of my Bowl predictions going into the season, unfortunately, 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:21.080 was that he was finally going to bounce back and 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:23.800 put together that great season we've all been waiting for. 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:27.080 Alasa did not happen. But it's week eighteen and you 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.880 want to throw a little love his way? Why and 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:31.520 let's break this down a little bit. 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.720 Yeah, because you're gonna do the same thing next year 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.160 and he is going to cause chaos. This is on 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:39.239 the Prediction Show earlier this week, so you shouldn't be 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:41.240 shocked about this. But it all is going to come 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.200 down to the number, and the number is very low, 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.200 which I get it, it should be. It's Kyle Pitts. 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:48.760 But yes, I truly believe Kyle Pitts is going to 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:51.040 end this year just enough that it's going to break 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.560 everybody's brain and they're going to go in and be like, 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.760 you know what, maybe Michael Pennix fixed him. But part 0:02:56.760 --> 0:03:00.680 of the reason also five targets last week four yards. 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.800 Michael Penick has been trying to get him the ball. 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:05.239 I mean that obviously the very first game in the 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.799 drop pass, the interception disastrous, but he has technically hit 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:12.480 this number receiving yards only at twenty seven point five. 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:14.560 He has hit this in two of the last three weeks. 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.720 Crushed it last week. He has had an eleven percent 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:19.960 first read percentage on the year. Tit Ends usually don't 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:22.600 have like high first read percentages, so that's not like 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:25.760 a shocker, but that is well below Week seventeen. It 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.520 almost doubled nineteen percent first read from Michael Pennock. So 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.400 I love that he's getting him more involved. And then 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.480 the topper Carolina one of the worst against tight ends. 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.040 They've actually given up the most touchdowns to tight ends 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.040 on the year. If you're looking at like fantasy points, 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:43.200 they've given up a decent amount yards to receptions is 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.160 high up there. I think this number is just so 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.640 stupidly low. We're going to talk about him when we 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.160 get to touchdowns. Penix is trying to get him the ball. 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:55.120 The target share is there. He's not good, but Michael 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.320 Pennix is going to make him decent. And this is 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:01.040 a incredibly low number for something I feel so confident 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.480 about that. All your brains are gonna be broken and 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:05.440 people are gonna start looking in at a tight end ten, 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.200 tight end eleven when he should be like tight end 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:10.200 forty five, Like we just know it's not good, but 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:11.720 you know what, hey, if you can get it right 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:13.760 in the midst because he reminds me of old school 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:18.440 Vernon Davis Joku has the same thing. Stonehands absolutely athletic, 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.320 freak plow over you run super fast. Stonehands can't do nothing. 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:24.640 So Pennick just gets it right in the numbers and 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:26.760 he has no choice but to catch it. He is 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:28.640 going to be able to get some yak after it. 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:30.960 So just a super low number and Penick seems to 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.320 like him. So twenty seven point five over on the 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.040 receiving yards. I know Ericson loves this one. 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:35.800 Who doesn't love you? 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.400 I mean you did say you had you said confidence 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.159 in Kyle Pitts in the same sentence, and that goes 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.040 together like water and oil essentially. 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:43.440 Sure, Yeah, there you go. 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.479 I've never been more confident. He is the He's the 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.080 epitome of Week eighteen production. That's why I'm so calmed. 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:51.839 This is gonna be dumb. The books won't even release 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.240 the names that you are going to be inundated with 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.440 this weekend because it's terrifying. And once they do, you 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:00.599 suckers are gonna betting on guys like Jimmy g and 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:02.600 Josh Dobbs and I probably will too. 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:08.080 Not right, let's switch gears to Saturday's game. Here, the 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:10.800 Steelers backfield maybe starting to turn a little bit last 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:13.279 couple of weeks into Jalen Warren's favor and er ericson 0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:14.520 You're trying to make some money off that. 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:16.640 Yes, I'm gonna make money like I made last week, 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.200 because I just checked the show sheet from last week 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:24.279 four and one four and one even thought, are the 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:25.880 touchdowns the touchdowns? 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:26.320 And not? Go? 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.240 Let me see actually didn't check the touchdowns? 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:28.920 Well. 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:32.880 DeVante Adams somehowed in score classic and Aaron Jones in 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:35.400 score either, so did not do well in the touchdown department. 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:36.880 But for and one and of course actually went own 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.240 to and all the Jets players, So Demante and Breese 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:41.120 Hall was my other prop. Of course, that's what I 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.760 get for betting on anything related to the Jets, So yeah, 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:45.039 serves me right. 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:47.800 It's only taking you eighteen weeks. 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.560 That was our squad right too. It was Breesehall receiving yards, 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:52.520 I think it was. So that was a failure on both. 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.320 Then squad ride to the h the prison. Yeah, that's 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.919 where we went with Breesaw. It was not fun. 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:02.920 So for Saturday, my favorite prop is Jalen Warren going 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.080 over his receiving yards over twenty one and a half 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.440 receiving yards and Joe you alluded to it at the top. 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:10.000 He's kind of taken over this backfield like he's starting 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:12.839 to edge out Naji Harris. He's out snapped Naji Harris 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:14.880 in four straight games. He's seen more red zone work 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:17.760 over the last two weeks than Najie Harris. So I 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:19.520 think that Jalen wore We would have seen more of 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:21.400 him throughout the year had he not been banged up 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:23.680 to kind of start the season, And now we're starting 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:25.080 to sign and to see it, and especially in a 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:26.760 game where if it's a little bit more higher scoring 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:28.320 as we've seen the last couple of weeks. Obviously, the 0:06:28.320 --> 0:06:30.080 Steelers have been trailing in a lot of these games. 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.800 They've had uptick with Jalen Warren usage. So he's at 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.159 least twenty five receiving yards and six of his last 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.800 eight games. Last time he faced the Bengals, caught all 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:40.000 four of his passes for fifty five yards, including a 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.200 twenty nine yard game. We know the Bengals don't tackle 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:44.360 very well. They led up a lot of yards after 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.640 the catch. So I think Jayen Warren's gonna be highly 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:48.720 involved as both a rusher and receiver. I think he 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:51.000 goes over this line like he's done over basically the 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:51.560 last month. 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:54.480 All right, So there you have a Jalen Warren on 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.159 the rise. We'll see where he ends up next season. 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:00.520 Let's switch over now again to the New Giants and 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:03.680 Drew Lock coming off I don't know, best game of 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:07.000 his career, maybe, but we could certainly debate that topic. 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:10.760 But Malik Neighbors looking at the six and a half receptions, 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:12.360 prop Welsh, where do you want to go with Melik 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:15.240 Neighbors And how much confidence do you have in Drew 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:16.880 Lock coming off what just all last week? 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:20.800 Well, I mean Drew Locke. Confidence is like a little 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:23.600 wavering obviously at a good game. But I have more 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.440 confidence Malik Neighbors, who is two catches away from breaking 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:31.680 the rookie reception record. He's going to smash that. He 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:33.840 really is, And you know, he's been a great play 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:36.480 for the majority of the season. With that, even that 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.960 little like period between the quarterback change, he's hit this 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.640 number six and a half receptions is what we're looking 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:44.560 at for the over. He's hit this in four of 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.200 his last five games. He has had double digit targets 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.440 in four of his last five games. And the Eagles 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.480 playing backups's that's going to be a big key to 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:55.680 a lot of these plays. Here is when you're looking 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:57.679 at the like obviously this would be a bad matchup 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:01.680 in a normal circumstance. Not that he still couldn't hit it, 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:03.640 but now you're looking at a situation where they're not 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.600 going to be playing all of their studs, especially not 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:08.360 the majority of the game. So he's also on the 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:12.600 tails of Brock Bauers, who's a couple receptions above. This 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.040 is an easy play for a guy that has been 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:17.480 smashing this all year long to end really strong. He's 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.240 gonna break the rookie record. Six and a half is 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:23.320 a very obtainable number against a backup Philadelphia defense. I 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:25.240 like this very much, and like you kind of alluded 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:28.480 to at the top, Drew Lock was pretty good last week, 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:30.600 like he found his confidence and he gets to carry 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.440 that over into this week. So Malik Neighbors receptions, six 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.960 and a half over comes back to our receiving yard 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.120 reception kind of conversation we have all the time. This 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.000 is in the seventies of yards. Malik Neighbors is one 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.360 of those players, though I'm a more reception confident than 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.079 yard confident guy in him. So six and a half over. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.720 I remember, you can follow us over. I'm betting pros 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.120 and of course use the prop betcheet sheet, bettingpros dot com, 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:54.679 slash props. That's where you're gonna find all of this. 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:56.559 And honestly, you got to stay up the date to 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:58.679 it because Week eighteen a lot of movement here, a 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:00.760 lot of guys in a lot of guys out books 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:02.800 are waiting to put off these lines. So it's going 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:04.599 to be a really tricky week. It always is. To 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:07.400 my advice, everybody's look for the overs because nobody wants 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:10.959 to sackle. That's my best week eighteen I could possibly 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:13.679 offer you. Unless you're talking about games where two backup 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:15.880 quarterbacks are playing in which gays, then maybe you want 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:17.600 to shine the under a little bit there. But back 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:19.319 to the props here, let's go to green Bay. For 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:21.640 Josh Jacob, sixty four and a half is the total 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:23.920 for his rushing yards. Green Bay has moved towards the 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.319 run quite a bit. They're heavily favored in this game. 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.520 Yet Undertaker, you want to go under this number? 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:29.800 Why? 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:31.600 Because I don't think they should be favor about thiss 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:33.400 many points. Because I don't think that they're trying to 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.400 blow out the Chicago Bears. They've already talked about. Josh 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:37.800 Jacobs has come out and said, hey, I'm not going 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:40.360 to get my usual compliment of touches, and that's kind 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.000 of how it's been the last couple of weeks. So 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.360 he's rushed under seventy and a half rushing yards in 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:46.480 four of his last five games, and he's finished under 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:49.120 his rushing yards prop in four of his last five games. 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:52.720 So they're weaning off of Josh Jacobs ahead of the postseason, 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:54.880 where they know, hey, we need you healthy for then 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:57.640 twenty twenty five touches in these postseason games, not in 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.840 a basically meaningless game against the Chicago ban where they 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:02.160 don't need to do that much. They know they can 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:04.720 get up ten nothing, then feed a manual Wilson Christopher 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:07.280 Brooks to their heart's desire and beat the Bears who 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:09.040 can't get out of their own way. So I think 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:10.720 he's gonna go under on his rushing yards prop. 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:10.920 Here. 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:12.719 It's actually opened up at seventy five and a half 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:14.480 really early in the week. It's obviously been bet down, 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.199 but again, he's been under his rushing yards prop four 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.400 of the last five and that's been based on a 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.079 usual workload. Now you're shortening that workload. I don't think 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:23.959 it's low enough here at sixty four and a half, 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:24.880 So I'm gonna take the under. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.920 All right, Let's talk about incentives here, because Kyler Murray 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.000 has got some paths to make himself some extra money. 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.000 He's not been making the playoffs this year, of course, 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.760 because well the Arizona Cardinals fell way short of that mark. 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:37.920 They were once at the very top of this division, 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.439 but it did not last very long. However, mister call 0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:43.000 of Duty can find a way to cash in and 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.320 probably get all kinds of cool stuff on PS five 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:48.640 for the new games and things like that, I imagine. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:50.800 So let's try to get it here. So the number 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:52.880 here for him is twenty eight and a half, and 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.240 I believe you're saying Welsh it was fifty, where he's 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.160 not a reach, he's he's fifty more in this game, 0:10:57.280 --> 0:10:59.280 ye er to get his next level of incentives. 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:01.199 Yeah, that's exactly. But by the way, if if this 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:02.599 is a Fortnite, I could have done like a v 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:04.720 Bucks joke. This could have been v Bucks or something 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:06.880 like that. But I don't know what the currency is 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.000 in Call of Duty. But Kyler Murray can have all 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:10.520 of it. He can have all of it. So the 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:14.439 incentive for Kyler Murray is fifty rushing yards and a 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.880 rushing touchdown and it gets a pretty significant bonus. And 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.560 this is something we were talking about. Off air incentives 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.040 are really popular right now. Clearly like it's it's a 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.839 marker that we all get to see that has an 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.319 end game attached to it. So we could you know, 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.160 tell like this player is going to want to do this, 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:32.439 but it could be dicey with some of these like 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.440 I'm not super interested and I know this sounds crazy, 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.520 but like quarter of a million type of bonuses, like 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:38.719 I'm not sure that's the one where the guy is, 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.120 you know, wide receivers pulling a quarterback in the side 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.440 and being like, let's get this. You know that, I mean, 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.040 they want it. But when you get into like a 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.680 million dollars or in this case, this is a seven 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:52.360 hundred and fifty thousand dollars potential bonus for a quarterback 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.360 who gets to control every bit of this, so it 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.960 is in his hands to control how much he wants 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.800 to run and if he's going to score that touchdown. 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.800 There to back up running backs right now, on Kyler himself, 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.920 he hit this against the forty nine ers the last 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:09.080 time they played. He went over eighty, which is huge. 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.080 There's injuries across the forty nine ers defense. This team 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.440 is checked out, and I think this bonus is very 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.280 obtainable and the number dropped you have to love You've 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.200 got to love this for Kyler Murray because he has 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:21.760 been hitting this. I think he's hit this in two 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.280 straight games. Twenty eight and a half over is a 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:25.199 phenomenal number. 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:26.520 But I will tell you. 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.839 Ericson and I were playing before the show. You can 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:35.200 find fifty plus at plus three hundred and then if 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:38.000 you would like to do in anytime touchdown and fifty 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.720 plus rushing yards, it's run six and a half to one. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:41.600 We did it on DK. 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.360 You can shop for lines over on the Betting pros 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:46.480 app if you would like to see all the different markets. 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.480 But there are different variations of it. Fifty plus rushing 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:53.080 yards plus three hundred anytime touchdown plus one seventy six 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.120 and a half for the parlay, but the main play 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.680 is over twenty eight and a half rushing yards because 0:12:57.679 --> 0:12:59.679 that is about half of what he is looking for. 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.160 His incentive for the speedy Kyler Murray. 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.800 Love that love that some good stuff there. You can 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:08.520 run all the way to the offseason. There you go, 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:10.880 which I know he's dying to do. He can't wait 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:11.840 to stop playing football. 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.079 Play hide and seek, heids, that's a popular one on 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:15.760 Call of Duty right now, playing hide and seek. 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.160 Let's talk about a game that Ericson, you and I 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:19.920 like the total love. We talked about this game a 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.800 little bit yesterday with Terrell. If you missed that show, 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:23.520 you could go back and watch it. On the YouTube channel. 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:28.120 Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars heading to Indianapolis's game indoors, 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.880 and these guys just kind of playing one more game 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.920 of football. And I imagine the defenses, especially after what 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:36.880 we saw last week from the Colts, I don't expect 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.360 too much out of them, and certainly the Jaguars given 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:40.839 up a lot of points two all year. So the 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.360 number for Mac Jones two sixteen and a half passing 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:45.319 yards and the undertaker is going over. 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.280 Yes, I am going over because the Colts defense is 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.000 terrible to lay it out. Seven of the last nine 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.760 quarterbacks they face have gone over their passing yards projection. 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.440 And as we talked about earlier in the show, Drew 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.319 Locke had a not just great game against the Colts 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:03.200 and history game that puts him into Giants' lore, essentially 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:05.319 of Oh the game where the Giants blew the chant 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.640 with the number one overall pick. No one will forget 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.520 it for Drew Locke. So I like attacking this Colts defense. 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.520 Jacksonville's had a lot of success historically against this Colts defense, 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.760 and Mac Jones has thrown for a ton of passing yards, 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.360 mostly to Brian Thomas over the last five games, gone 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.640 over two hundred and twenty passing yards in four of 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:21.680 his last five games. 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.240 So I think that this number is just way too low. 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:25.360 I've seen it open. 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:26.560 I think it was a two hundred and seven and 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:28.200 a half yards up to two hundred and sixteen and 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:30.560 a half passing yards now. But I mean, this guy's 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:32.560 gonna throw for two fifty plus. Like, I feel pretty 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:34.720 confident that because look, Mac Jones, he's a backup, right 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.160 He's His incentive is like, hey, I want to look good. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:38.400 I want to put up numbers so I get a 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.200 job next year. So I like Mac Jones throwing the 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.120 ball all over the yard and hopefully to my guy 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:45.640 Brian Thomas Junior, because we need to cash that eighteen 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.360 to one be on leading their rookies in receiving yards. 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.120 So Mac Johns, let's get it down, you man. That 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:50.680 is all you. 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.480 Andrew Erickson was in on that from August and we 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.480 are here in January, and I got to give you 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.160 all the credit for that. One man. You crush the 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.160 BTJ props this year and some of the BTJ numbers. 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.280 You were the first to market on that guy. 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.280 Go ahead, the line dropped By the way, it's around 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:08.680 like eighty two or eighty for Brian Thomas this week. 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:10.920 I feel like maybe you could. 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.240 You should ladder it just I mean, I'm not, I'm not. 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:15.080 I'm not betting more on Brian Thomas. 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.400 You and you should bet more. You should bet more. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:20.560 No, no, no, the ladders, the ladders. 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:22.040 No. 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.160 I you know what, I have confidence in you. I'm 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.320 gonna better. I'm gonna do over the ninety and one 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:28.880 hundred taking on Mac Jones. 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:29.400 That's true. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:31.320 Whatever Brian Thomas Juniors, I'll be happy with again. 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.120 He still he's still going to outpace Bowers and neighbors 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.000 because the're breathing down his neck. So we're not out 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:36.560 of the woods yet. 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.600 Let's move on to more incentives. Courtland Sutton can make 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:42.280 himself some more money and the Denver Broncos can solidify 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:44.840 themselves in the playoffs. So in order to do both, Welsh, 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:46.600 let's talk about the breakdown here, how you want to 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:48.400 approach Courton's Sutton that week eighteen. 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.240 Yeah, Cortland Sutton has the biggest incentive that I'm going 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.960 to talk about on here. Let you guys know we're 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.400 not talking about Mike Evans Mike Evans has the biggest 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.480 overall incentive. It's five catches eighty five yards for three 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.640 million dollars. We talked about this last week where you 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:06.320 know in the Prediction Show where absolutely nailed it two touchdowns, 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.600 so that's over, but his line open up at ninety nine. 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:14.240 The next biggest is Cortland Sutton, who has a very 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.240 obtainable eighty two yards that he needs eighty two yards 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.200 to secure a two million dollar bonus. So this is 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:24.080 a scenario where rookie quarterback and wide receivers sit down 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.040 and go, we got to get this number. Five of 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.360 the last six weeks, wide receivers against the Chiefs have 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:36.120 actually hit this number. He has actually not hit this 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.120 number in four straight games, but the previous five of 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.800 six he had hit this, so it's been a little 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:43.560 bit of a lull. One of the things I love 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.760 most about this though, backups. The Chiefs are already committing 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.080