1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros's down to place your bets. 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: It's me Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this is 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 1: BP NFL. It's week eighteen. It's time to look at 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 1: props and some incentives too, because some guys could get 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 1: paid on the last week of football. Hopefully all of 6 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: you watching and listening are some of those people. But 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: to help me break it all down, of course the Undertaker, 8 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson and the Welsh as well. Welsh, good to 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: see you, my friend. I know we've been doing a 10 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: lot of baseball a baseball channel, getting people excited for that, 11 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: But today's about football and also about finally putting your 12 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: forty nine ers season to bed, right. I mean, that's 13 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: got to be the biggest thing in your mind right now. 14 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 2: Nothing I've been more excited about. Plus I lost like 15 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: a four figure amount this weekend betting. Actually, you know what, 16 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 2: I had done nothing but bet against the Niners and 17 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: it worked out. And then Bagman and I put a 18 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: little thing together, road together, and all we needed was 19 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 2: a George Kittle touchdown at the end of the game, 20 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: which he fell four yards short. And then Josh Doobbs 21 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 2: only wanted to throw it to his Tennessee teammate and 22 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 2: then run it in Classic Niner season. Goodbye, by the 23 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: way bets last week, I believe I was two and 24 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: three worst bet of all time Jordan Love dumbest person 25 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: on the planet me, But I did sweep my touchdowns, 26 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 2: swept both of my touchdown calls. So two three on 27 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 2: the props, two and zero on the touchdown calls and 28 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: hoping to make it a very very sweet week eighteen. 29 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 1: Yes, we want to finish strong. Andrew Erickson, how is 30 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: your week seventeen? By comparison? 31 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: I do not remember exactly. I need to check out 32 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 3: what my picks were. 33 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: I don't know too much eggnog. 34 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 4: I think it was I think it was a positive week. 35 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 3: I believe it was three and two, but I will 36 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: recheck the sheet and okay. 37 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: There you go. We'll get back to you after the 38 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: scheduled commercial break for Betting Pros the app that's right 39 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: down low is Betting Pros the app today, and make 40 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: sure you are getting those free premiums for you as well. Again, 41 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: think your sportsbooks for free. And this is a great 42 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: time of year to be using all of these tools 43 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: because we have a College Football Playoff still raging on 44 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: some fun games there. We've also got NFL Playoff starting. 45 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,279 Speaker 1: We got NBA, NHL, Major League Baseball around the corner. 46 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: So let the betting pros app help you make the 47 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: best bets possible and help you become a profitable wagerer. 48 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: Let's start here with Kyle Pitts, of all people. So 49 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: I want to talk about this here because Kyle Pitts. 50 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: One of my Bowl predictions going into the season, unfortunately, 51 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 1: was that he was finally going to bounce back and 52 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 1: put together that great season we've all been waiting for. 53 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: Alasa did not happen. But it's week eighteen and you 54 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: want to throw a little love his way? Why and 55 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: let's break this down a little bit. 56 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, because you're gonna do the same thing next year 57 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 2: and he is going to cause chaos. This is on 58 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 2: the Prediction Show earlier this week, so you shouldn't be 59 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: shocked about this. But it all is going to come 60 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: down to the number, and the number is very low, 61 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: which I get it, it should be. It's Kyle Pitts. 62 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 2: But yes, I truly believe Kyle Pitts is going to 63 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: end this year just enough that it's going to break 64 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: everybody's brain and they're going to go in and be like, 65 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: you know what, maybe Michael Pennix fixed him. But part 66 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: of the reason also five targets last week four yards. 67 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 2: Michael Penick has been trying to get him the ball. 68 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 2: I mean that obviously the very first game in the 69 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 2: drop pass, the interception disastrous, but he has technically hit 70 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: this number receiving yards only at twenty seven point five. 71 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 2: He has hit this in two of the last three weeks. 72 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 2: Crushed it last week. He has had an eleven percent 73 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 2: first read percentage on the year. Tit Ends usually don't 74 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: have like high first read percentages, so that's not like 75 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 2: a shocker, but that is well below Week seventeen. It 76 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: almost doubled nineteen percent first read from Michael Pennock. So 77 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: I love that he's getting him more involved. And then 78 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 2: the topper Carolina one of the worst against tight ends. 79 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 2: They've actually given up the most touchdowns to tight ends 80 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: on the year. If you're looking at like fantasy points, 81 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 2: they've given up a decent amount yards to receptions is 82 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: high up there. I think this number is just so 83 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: stupidly low. We're going to talk about him when we 84 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 2: get to touchdowns. Penix is trying to get him the ball. 85 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 2: The target share is there. He's not good, but Michael 86 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 2: Pennix is going to make him decent. And this is 87 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: a incredibly low number for something I feel so confident 88 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: about that. All your brains are gonna be broken and 89 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: people are gonna start looking in at a tight end ten, 90 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: tight end eleven when he should be like tight end 91 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 2: forty five, Like we just know it's not good, but 92 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: you know what, hey, if you can get it right 93 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: in the midst because he reminds me of old school 94 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: Vernon Davis Joku has the same thing. Stonehands absolutely athletic, 95 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: freak plow over you run super fast. Stonehands can't do nothing. 96 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: So Pennick just gets it right in the numbers and 97 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: he has no choice but to catch it. He is 98 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 2: going to be able to get some yak after it. 99 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 2: So just a super low number and Penick seems to 100 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: like him. So twenty seven point five over on the 101 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 2: receiving yards. I know Ericson loves this one. 102 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: Who doesn't love you? 103 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 3: I mean you did say you had you said confidence 104 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 3: in Kyle Pitts in the same sentence, and that goes 105 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 3: together like water and oil essentially. 106 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: Sure, Yeah, there you go. 107 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 2: I've never been more confident. He is the He's the 108 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: epitome of Week eighteen production. That's why I'm so calmed. 109 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 2: This is gonna be dumb. The books won't even release 110 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 2: the names that you are going to be inundated with 111 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 2: this weekend because it's terrifying. And once they do, you 112 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 2: suckers are gonna betting on guys like Jimmy g and 113 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs and I probably will too. 114 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: Not right, let's switch gears to Saturday's game. Here, the 115 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: Steelers backfield maybe starting to turn a little bit last 116 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 1: couple of weeks into Jalen Warren's favor and er ericson 117 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: You're trying to make some money off that. 118 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 3: Yes, I'm gonna make money like I made last week, 119 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: because I just checked the show sheet from last week 120 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 3: four and one four and one even thought, are the 121 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: touchdowns the touchdowns? 122 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 1: And not? Go? 123 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 3: Let me see actually didn't check the touchdowns? 124 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: Well. 125 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: DeVante Adams somehowed in score classic and Aaron Jones in 126 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: score either, so did not do well in the touchdown department. 127 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 3: But for and one and of course actually went own 128 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 3: to and all the Jets players, So Demante and Breese 129 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 3: Hall was my other prop. Of course, that's what I 130 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 3: get for betting on anything related to the Jets, So yeah, 131 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 3: serves me right. 132 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: It's only taking you eighteen weeks. 133 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: That was our squad right too. It was Breesehall receiving yards, 134 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 2: I think it was. So that was a failure on both. 135 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 4: Then squad ride to the h the prison. Yeah, that's 136 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 4: where we went with Breesaw. It was not fun. 137 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 3: So for Saturday, my favorite prop is Jalen Warren going 138 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 3: over his receiving yards over twenty one and a half 139 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: receiving yards and Joe you alluded to it at the top. 140 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 3: He's kind of taken over this backfield like he's starting 141 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 3: to edge out Naji Harris. He's out snapped Naji Harris 142 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 3: in four straight games. He's seen more red zone work 143 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 3: over the last two weeks than Najie Harris. So I 144 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 3: think that Jalen wore We would have seen more of 145 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: him throughout the year had he not been banged up 146 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 3: to kind of start the season, And now we're starting 147 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 3: to sign and to see it, and especially in a 148 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 3: game where if it's a little bit more higher scoring 149 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 3: as we've seen the last couple of weeks. Obviously, the 150 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 3: Steelers have been trailing in a lot of these games. 151 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 3: They've had uptick with Jalen Warren usage. So he's at 152 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 3: least twenty five receiving yards and six of his last 153 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 3: eight games. Last time he faced the Bengals, caught all 154 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 3: four of his passes for fifty five yards, including a 155 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: twenty nine yard game. We know the Bengals don't tackle 156 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 3: very well. They led up a lot of yards after 157 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 3: the catch. So I think Jayen Warren's gonna be highly 158 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 3: involved as both a rusher and receiver. I think he 159 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 3: goes over this line like he's done over basically the 160 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 3: last month. 161 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: All right, So there you have a Jalen Warren on 162 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: the rise. We'll see where he ends up next season. 163 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: Let's switch over now again to the New Giants and 164 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: Drew Lock coming off I don't know, best game of 165 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: his career, maybe, but we could certainly debate that topic. 166 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: But Malik Neighbors looking at the six and a half receptions, 167 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: prop Welsh, where do you want to go with Melik 168 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: Neighbors And how much confidence do you have in Drew 169 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: Lock coming off what just all last week? 170 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 2: Well, I mean Drew Locke. Confidence is like a little 171 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 2: wavering obviously at a good game. But I have more 172 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 2: confidence Malik Neighbors, who is two catches away from breaking 173 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 2: the rookie reception record. He's going to smash that. He 174 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: really is, And you know, he's been a great play 175 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: for the majority of the season. With that, even that 176 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 2: little like period between the quarterback change, he's hit this 177 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: number six and a half receptions is what we're looking 178 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 2: at for the over. He's hit this in four of 179 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 2: his last five games. He has had double digit targets 180 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 2: in four of his last five games. And the Eagles 181 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 2: playing backups's that's going to be a big key to 182 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 2: a lot of these plays. Here is when you're looking 183 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 2: at the like obviously this would be a bad matchup 184 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 2: in a normal circumstance. Not that he still couldn't hit it, 185 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: but now you're looking at a situation where they're not 186 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 2: going to be playing all of their studs, especially not 187 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 2: the majority of the game. So he's also on the 188 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: tails of Brock Bauers, who's a couple receptions above. This 189 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: is an easy play for a guy that has been 190 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 2: smashing this all year long to end really strong. He's 191 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 2: gonna break the rookie record. Six and a half is 192 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: a very obtainable number against a backup Philadelphia defense. I 193 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: like this very much, and like you kind of alluded 194 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 2: to at the top, Drew Lock was pretty good last week, 195 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 2: like he found his confidence and he gets to carry 196 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 2: that over into this week. So Malik Neighbors receptions, six 197 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: and a half over comes back to our receiving yard 198 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 2: reception kind of conversation we have all the time. This 199 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 2: is in the seventies of yards. Malik Neighbors is one 200 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 2: of those players, though I'm a more reception confident than 201 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 2: yard confident guy in him. So six and a half over. 202 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: I remember, you can follow us over. I'm betting pros 203 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: and of course use the prop betcheet sheet, bettingpros dot com, 204 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: slash props. That's where you're gonna find all of this. 205 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 1: And honestly, you got to stay up the date to 206 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: it because Week eighteen a lot of movement here, a 207 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: lot of guys in a lot of guys out books 208 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: are waiting to put off these lines. So it's going 209 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,599 Speaker 1: to be a really tricky week. It always is. To 210 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: my advice, everybody's look for the overs because nobody wants 211 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 1: to sackle. That's my best week eighteen I could possibly 212 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: offer you. Unless you're talking about games where two backup 213 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: quarterbacks are playing in which gays, then maybe you want 214 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: to shine the under a little bit there. But back 215 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: to the props here, let's go to green Bay. For 216 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: Josh Jacob, sixty four and a half is the total 217 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: for his rushing yards. Green Bay has moved towards the 218 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 1: run quite a bit. They're heavily favored in this game. 219 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: Yet Undertaker, you want to go under this number? 220 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 4: Why? 221 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 3: Because I don't think they should be favor about thiss 222 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 3: many points. Because I don't think that they're trying to 223 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 3: blow out the Chicago Bears. They've already talked about. Josh 224 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 3: Jacobs has come out and said, hey, I'm not going 225 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 3: to get my usual compliment of touches, and that's kind 226 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 3: of how it's been the last couple of weeks. So 227 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 3: he's rushed under seventy and a half rushing yards in 228 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 3: four of his last five games, and he's finished under 229 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 3: his rushing yards prop in four of his last five games. 230 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 3: So they're weaning off of Josh Jacobs ahead of the postseason, 231 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 3: where they know, hey, we need you healthy for then 232 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five touches in these postseason games, not in 233 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 3: a basically meaningless game against the Chicago ban where they 234 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 3: don't need to do that much. They know they can 235 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 3: get up ten nothing, then feed a manual Wilson Christopher 236 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 3: Brooks to their heart's desire and beat the Bears who 237 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 3: can't get out of their own way. So I think 238 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 3: he's gonna go under on his rushing yards prop. 239 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: Here. 240 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 3: It's actually opened up at seventy five and a half 241 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 3: really early in the week. It's obviously been bet down, 242 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 3: but again, he's been under his rushing yards prop four 243 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 3: of the last five and that's been based on a 244 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 3: usual workload. Now you're shortening that workload. I don't think 245 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 3: it's low enough here at sixty four and a half, 246 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the under. 247 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about incentives here, because Kyler Murray 248 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: has got some paths to make himself some extra money. 249 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: He's not been making the playoffs this year, of course, 250 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: because well the Arizona Cardinals fell way short of that mark. 251 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: They were once at the very top of this division, 252 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 1: but it did not last very long. However, mister call 253 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: of Duty can find a way to cash in and 254 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: probably get all kinds of cool stuff on PS five 255 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: for the new games and things like that, I imagine. 256 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: So let's try to get it here. So the number 257 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: here for him is twenty eight and a half, and 258 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: I believe you're saying Welsh it was fifty, where he's 259 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: not a reach, he's he's fifty more in this game, 260 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: ye er to get his next level of incentives. 261 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly. But by the way, if if this 262 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:02,599 Speaker 2: is a Fortnite, I could have done like a v 263 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 2: Bucks joke. This could have been v Bucks or something 264 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 2: like that. But I don't know what the currency is 265 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 2: in Call of Duty. But Kyler Murray can have all 266 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: of it. He can have all of it. So the 267 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 2: incentive for Kyler Murray is fifty rushing yards and a 268 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 2: rushing touchdown and it gets a pretty significant bonus. And 269 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 2: this is something we were talking about. Off air incentives 270 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: are really popular right now. Clearly like it's it's a 271 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,839 Speaker 2: marker that we all get to see that has an 272 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 2: end game attached to it. So we could you know, 273 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 2: tell like this player is going to want to do this, 274 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 2: but it could be dicey with some of these like 275 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 2: I'm not super interested and I know this sounds crazy, 276 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 2: but like quarter of a million type of bonuses, like 277 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,719 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's the one where the guy is, 278 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 2: you know, wide receivers pulling a quarterback in the side 279 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 2: and being like, let's get this. You know that, I mean, 280 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 2: they want it. But when you get into like a 281 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: million dollars or in this case, this is a seven 282 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty thousand dollars potential bonus for a quarterback 283 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 2: who gets to control every bit of this, so it 284 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 2: is in his hands to control how much he wants 285 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 2: to run and if he's going to score that touchdown. 286 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: There to back up running backs right now, on Kyler himself, 287 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 2: he hit this against the forty nine ers the last 288 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 2: time they played. He went over eighty, which is huge. 289 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 2: There's injuries across the forty nine ers defense. This team 290 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 2: is checked out, and I think this bonus is very 291 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 2: obtainable and the number dropped you have to love You've 292 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: got to love this for Kyler Murray because he has 293 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: been hitting this. I think he's hit this in two 294 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 2: straight games. Twenty eight and a half over is a 295 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 2: phenomenal number. 296 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 1: But I will tell you. 297 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 2: Ericson and I were playing before the show. You can 298 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 2: find fifty plus at plus three hundred and then if 299 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 2: you would like to do in anytime touchdown and fifty 300 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 2: plus rushing yards, it's run six and a half to one. 301 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: We did it on DK. 302 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 2: You can shop for lines over on the Betting pros 303 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: app if you would like to see all the different markets. 304 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 2: But there are different variations of it. Fifty plus rushing 305 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 2: yards plus three hundred anytime touchdown plus one seventy six 306 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: and a half for the parlay, but the main play 307 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 2: is over twenty eight and a half rushing yards because 308 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 2: that is about half of what he is looking for. 309 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 2: His incentive for the speedy Kyler Murray. 310 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: Love that love that some good stuff there. You can 311 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: run all the way to the offseason. There you go, 312 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: which I know he's dying to do. He can't wait 313 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: to stop playing football. 314 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 2: Play hide and seek, heids, that's a popular one on 315 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: Call of Duty right now, playing hide and seek. 316 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 1: Let's talk about a game that Ericson, you and I 317 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: like the total love. We talked about this game a 318 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: little bit yesterday with Terrell. If you missed that show, 319 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: you could go back and watch it. On the YouTube channel. 320 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars heading to Indianapolis's game indoors, 321 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: and these guys just kind of playing one more game 322 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: of football. And I imagine the defenses, especially after what 323 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: we saw last week from the Colts, I don't expect 324 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: too much out of them, and certainly the Jaguars given 325 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 1: up a lot of points two all year. So the 326 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: number for Mac Jones two sixteen and a half passing 327 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 1: yards and the undertaker is going over. 328 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 3: Yes, I am going over because the Colts defense is 329 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 3: terrible to lay it out. Seven of the last nine 330 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 3: quarterbacks they face have gone over their passing yards projection. 331 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 3: And as we talked about earlier in the show, Drew 332 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 3: Locke had a not just great game against the Colts 333 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 3: and history game that puts him into Giants' lore, essentially 334 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 3: of Oh the game where the Giants blew the chant 335 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 3: with the number one overall pick. No one will forget 336 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 3: it for Drew Locke. So I like attacking this Colts defense. 337 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 3: Jacksonville's had a lot of success historically against this Colts defense, 338 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 3: and Mac Jones has thrown for a ton of passing yards, 339 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 3: mostly to Brian Thomas over the last five games, gone 340 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 3: over two hundred and twenty passing yards in four of 341 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 3: his last five games. 342 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 4: So I think that this number is just way too low. 343 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 4: I've seen it open. 344 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 3: I think it was a two hundred and seven and 345 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 3: a half yards up to two hundred and sixteen and 346 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 3: a half passing yards now. But I mean, this guy's 347 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 3: gonna throw for two fifty plus. Like, I feel pretty 348 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 3: confident that because look, Mac Jones, he's a backup, right 349 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 3: He's His incentive is like, hey, I want to look good. 350 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 3: I want to put up numbers so I get a 351 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 3: job next year. So I like Mac Jones throwing the 352 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 3: ball all over the yard and hopefully to my guy 353 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 3: Brian Thomas Junior, because we need to cash that eighteen 354 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 3: to one be on leading their rookies in receiving yards. 355 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 4: So Mac Johns, let's get it down, you man. That 356 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 4: is all you. 357 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson was in on that from August and we 358 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: are here in January, and I got to give you 359 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: all the credit for that. One man. You crush the 360 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: BTJ props this year and some of the BTJ numbers. 361 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: You were the first to market on that guy. 362 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 2: Go ahead, the line dropped By the way, it's around 363 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 2: like eighty two or eighty for Brian Thomas this week. 364 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 2: I feel like maybe you could. 365 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 4: You should ladder it just I mean, I'm not, I'm not. 366 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 4: I'm not betting more on Brian Thomas. 367 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: You and you should bet more. You should bet more. 368 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 4: No, no, no, the ladders, the ladders. 369 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 3: No. 370 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: I you know what, I have confidence in you. I'm 371 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 2: gonna better. I'm gonna do over the ninety and one 372 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 2: hundred taking on Mac Jones. 373 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 3: That's true. 374 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 4: Whatever Brian Thomas Juniors, I'll be happy with again. 375 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 3: He still he's still going to outpace Bowers and neighbors 376 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 3: because the're breathing down his neck. So we're not out 377 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 3: of the woods yet. 378 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: Let's move on to more incentives. Courtland Sutton can make 379 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: himself some more money and the Denver Broncos can solidify 380 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: themselves in the playoffs. So in order to do both, Welsh, 381 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: let's talk about the breakdown here, how you want to 382 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: approach Courton's Sutton that week eighteen. 383 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, Cortland Sutton has the biggest incentive that I'm going 384 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 2: to talk about on here. Let you guys know we're 385 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 2: not talking about Mike Evans Mike Evans has the biggest 386 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 2: overall incentive. It's five catches eighty five yards for three 387 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 2: million dollars. We talked about this last week where you 388 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 2: know in the Prediction Show where absolutely nailed it two touchdowns, 389 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: so that's over, but his line open up at ninety nine. 390 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 2: The next biggest is Cortland Sutton, who has a very 391 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: obtainable eighty two yards that he needs eighty two yards 392 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 2: to secure a two million dollar bonus. So this is 393 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 2: a scenario where rookie quarterback and wide receivers sit down 394 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: and go, we got to get this number. Five of 395 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 2: the last six weeks, wide receivers against the Chiefs have 396 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 2: actually hit this number. He has actually not hit this 397 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 2: number in four straight games, but the previous five of 398 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 2: six he had hit this, so it's been a little 399 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 2: bit of a lull. One of the things I love 400 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 2: most about this though, backups. The Chiefs are already committing 401 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 2: to playing backups. I think Carson Wentz is starting You're 402 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 2: gonna play backups across the board. This is a good scenario. 403 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: Another one I was actually looking at bow Nicks. Bo 404 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 2: Nicks interceptions, by the way, have been a big He 405 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: is actually thrown quite a bit on at home. I 406 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 2: think it's like eight of his twelve interceptions have come 407 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 2: at home, which get me a little bit worried and 408 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 2: almost wanted to make me taper off of this. But 409 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 2: they're going to be slinging the crap out of the ball. 410 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 2: They're playing backups, which made me move. 411 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: Back to it. 412 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: Courtland Sutton seventy two point five ten yards under what 413 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 2: that incentive marker is and it is very significant. So 414 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 2: even though he hasn't hit it as a recent again backups, 415 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: he had been on a huge stretch bon Nicks in 416 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 2: his completion rate, and two million dollars makes me hit 417 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 2: that number. 418 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: Okay, sticking with the Broncos, bon Nicks is somebody that 419 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: you are wagering on undertaker. Let's find an under you 420 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: like for Bonnicks. 421 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to go the under a bon Nix 422 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 3: and his rushing yard. So I was actually on the 423 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 3: rushing yards over the last couple of weeks with bow 424 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 3: Nicks to great success. But that's because the Denver Broncos 425 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 3: have kind of been in underdog situations where you're seeing 426 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 3: bon Nicks run the ball a little bit more, but 427 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 3: in a game where they're playing Chiefs backups, I don't 428 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 3: think you're gonna see bow run as much. I think 429 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 3: that they can win this game comfortably, even though I 430 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 3: think in the fourth quarter they're gonna look up and 431 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 3: be like, oh my god, the Chiefs made this a 432 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 3: game somehow, some way. So to agree with Treel Furman 433 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 3: as we talked about post show last or yesterday, he 434 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 3: likes the Chiefs a lot covering the spread, as do I, 435 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 3: but I still don't think that's going to force Bonicks 436 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 3: into rushing situations. If you can look at what he's 437 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 3: done this year as an underdog seven and nine towards 438 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: the over, but when he's been favored five and two 439 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 3: towards the under at this number and last name face 440 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 3: the Chiefs, he negative five rushing yards. So I was 441 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 3: also looking at the attempts well, but it was a 442 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 3: five and a half, and I did think, well, if 443 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 3: they're kneeling the ball at the end of the game, 444 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 3: and that could potentially destroy that bet. So that's why 445 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 3: I feel most confident taking the under on the rushing 446 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 3: art because I think that they're going to want to 447 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,119 Speaker 3: try just keep things in structure. Get Courtland Slutt in 448 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 3: his yardage, run the football and not put Bonnicks in 449 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 3: situations where he's running around, scrambling and potentially turning the 450 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 3: ball over. So I like the under here on the 451 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 3: rushing yards for Bonnicks. 452 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: All right, one more pick for both the guys here 453 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: on the props before we get to the touchdown calls. 454 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: Let's go with Jared Goff your huge game Sunday Night Football. 455 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 1: Big difference between the one spot and the five spot 456 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 1: in terms of your path to the Super Bowl. So 457 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 1: I'm on the Viking side of this game. I already 458 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: made that abundantly clear yesterday. Welsh. How are you approaching 459 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: this one from an individual standpoint with Jared Goff? 460 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 2: Over over all the things, the line is huge, it's 461 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 2: I think it's didn't move down to fifty six we 462 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 2: were talking about. I think it was on the same 463 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: show with warm Ericsson and I where it's like when 464 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 2: it's gone to fifty seven or higher, it's like a 465 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 2: seventy percent hit rate to the over when it's fifty 466 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 2: six and a half. Wasn't that what it was? Ericson 467 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 2: the key number that it was dramatically a bit lower. 468 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, these are two 469 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: horrifically bad pass stoppers. I mean, you're going to have 470 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 2: a huge amount of passing yards and it's a huge, 471 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 2: huge total. So I think that in line tells you 472 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 2: the first story. Jared got's passing yard line at least 473 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:50,479 Speaker 2: where I got it, and it's going to probably move 474 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 2: up a tiny bit two seventy two. He has hit 475 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 2: this in four straight games. He smashed this in four 476 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: straight games. Projections across the board just cross referencing, even 477 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 2: outside of betting pro here two ninety four on PFF. 478 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: So that's beautiful and again highest total of the week, 479 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 2: and the Vikings are giving up the second most passing 480 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 2: yards in the NFL. They're going to be slinging the 481 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: ever living crap out of the ball. This is under 482 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 2: three hundred yards. Absolutely love it. I mean you could 483 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 2: probably even though Darnold doesn't do this as much, I 484 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: wouldn't even hate the idea of putting like a three 485 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 2: hundred yard pass on both of these guys and putting 486 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 2: those pieces together, because this bad boy should be throwing 487 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 2: the ball left and right. Dan Campbell's going to be 488 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 2: hyper aggressive. Anything under really, anything under three hundred for 489 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 2: golf is in play here but two seventy two is 490 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 2: a smash all right. 491 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: One more for you, Andrew Ericson has to do with 492 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley. Sixty two and a half is the number 493 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,640 Speaker 1: for the receiving yards you're going over or under. 494 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 3: I'm going to take the over on Calvin Ridley and 495 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 3: his receiving arts prop because not only is it contract Sison, 496 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 3: but it's also milestone Sisson as some of these players 497 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 3: have nothing to play for. But hey, it'd be cool 498 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 3: to get a thousand yards, right, I want to hit 499 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 3: that milestone, even though we're playing seventeen games now and 500 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 3: all the records that need to have these asterisks next 501 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 3: to them because they're adding in so many extra games. Look, 502 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 3: he's fifty nine receiving yards away from a thousand yards. 503 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: Right. 504 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: There's been a lost season for the Tennessee Titans. They're 505 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 3: starting two quarterbacks in this game. So Calvin Ridley's going 506 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 3: out there, Hey, get me my thousand receiving yards. I 507 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 3: got paid in the offseason. Now I want to get 508 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,159 Speaker 3: my yardage. So this is a low bar for him 509 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 3: to pass. He's gone over sixty two and a half 510 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 3: receiving yards back to back games. Chicka Konquo is also 511 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 3: banged up on the injury report, Tyler Board is hurt, 512 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,239 Speaker 3: so I mean he's the number one receiver. He's been 513 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 3: the number one receiver for the Titans all year long. 514 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 3: And the Texans we don't know how long they're going 515 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 3: to play their starters for, so I'm not worried about 516 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 3: any type of lockdown coverage from them from Stingley. And 517 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 3: he also had ninety three receiving yards last time he 518 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 3: faced the Texans, So I think the game plan for 519 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans is going to feature two players, one 520 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley and one that we will get into when 521 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 3: we're talking about the touchdown calls. 522 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 1: All right, So more to come of the touchdown calls. 523 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,239 Speaker 1: And remember the touchdown score Report of bettingpros dot com 524 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 1: slash touchdown is still available for you if you're looking 525 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: for an edge and touchdown bets, and I know you are. 526 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: Our Touchdown Score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop 527 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: bet odds and projections toyle but identify the very best 528 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: anytime touchdown bets. So head to bettingpros dot com slash 529 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis. Today, I'm going 530 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,639 Speaker 1: with Jackson Smith and Jigba. The Seahawks are done, but 531 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 1: JSN has been a breakout star. Plus one thirty five 532 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: is the number I'm getting right now. I want to 533 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: lock that in for him as Gino tries to finish 534 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 1: on a high note here with the Seahawks, and then 535 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: give me Jordan Addison in the night game. He's been 536 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: a touchdown machine. Jefferson, the number was a little too 537 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 1: juice for me, so I'm gonna go with Addison instead. 538 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: Plus one twenty seven you're getting welsh h You started 539 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,879 Speaker 1: with Kyle Pitts and you're gonna end with Kyle Pitts today, 540 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: aren't you. 541 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 2: Pretty much? I'm going full Psycho. We're gonna get y plus. 542 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 1: You've gone full Pits in Week eight team. 543 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 2: One seventy five plus one seventy five, And again I 544 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 2: would just point out no team has given up more 545 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 2: touchdowns the tight ends on the year than Carolina and 546 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 2: it's it and Kyle Pitts got that last week. So 547 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be another touchdown. I think the 548 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 2: yards are going over and it's gonna be just enough 549 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 2: for us to keep in it. I'd love to get 550 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 2: two to one on but one seventy five is pretty good, 551 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 2: and this is a deeper play. I don't This is 552 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 2: more of like an Ericson type of play where you 553 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 2: get those four or five hundreds. But this is a 554 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 2: good week where you're going to get some of these. 555 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 2: The Chiefs are going to be playing the backups, they're 556 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 2: not going to be playing their starters, and that created 557 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 2: a bunch of really interesting opportunities. And this one just 558 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 2: jumped out to me. Maybe you could play a couple 559 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 2: different other guys. I'll be honest with you. I did 560 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,360 Speaker 2: look at Noah Gray, but I don't know how much 561 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: Noah Gray would even play because he's like a pseudo starter. 562 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 2: But five to one plus five hundred on Justin Watson, 563 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 2: I love that play because he should be one. He's 564 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: kind of the primary receiver whenever he does come in, 565 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 2: like especially as a backup, he's going to play that 566 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 2: primary receiver role. I don't know what Marquis Brown would play. 567 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 2: I don't know much of what you'll see for Xavier Worthy. 568 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 2: I expect to see some Juju and some Justin Watson, 569 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 2: and I think you might be able to get a 570 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 2: big long touchdown from Justin Watson. So five to one 571 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 2: on a Watson touchdown when he should get significant, significant 572 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 2: reps this weekend. 573 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: All right, Andrew Erickson, wrap us up. Let's get some 574 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: guys in the end zone. 575 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 3: Tony Pollard, as I alluded to, I like the Titans 576 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 3: running back here. Taji Spears is probably not gonna play 577 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 3: in this game. Tony Pollard has been actually practicing this week. 578 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 3: It's like for the first time in six weeks that 579 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 3: he's actually showed out to the practice. They were like, hey, 580 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 3: this guy's on the team, right, So Tony Pollard eighty 581 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 3: three rushing yards away from two hundred and fifty k bonus, 582 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 3: two touchdowns away from another two hundred thousand dollars. So 583 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 3: if he's playing in this game, they're gonna give him 584 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 3: the rock in the end zone. So again going back 585 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 3: to what are the Texans level of effort, especially around 586 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 3: the goal line and Taji Spears. Interesting enough, the last 587 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 3: two times that these guys have played together, Spears has 588 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,439 Speaker 3: had four touchdowns versus Pollard's one. So I think they 589 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 3: get Pollard into the end zone with Spears not available. 590 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 3: So I like him even at minus one twenty five. 591 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 3: And then my chiefs bet that I like is DeAndre 592 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 3: Hopkins because there is any incentive to get one of 593 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 3: these Chiefs a touchdown, it's Hopkins because he got just 594 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 3: one touchdown. That's a five hundred thousand dollars touchdown catch 595 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 3: for DeAndre Hopkins again in the twilight of his career. 596 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 3: He wants to get as much money as he possibly can. 597 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 3: And you know, if he's in the huddle, Carson Wentz 598 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 3: is thrown in the ball because he's gonna command. Carson 599 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 3: wants to throw him the ball no matter what. So 600 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 3: I like the touchdow nods with Yonder Hopkins again. And 601 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 3: if he's not active, then you get your money back. 602 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,680 Speaker 3: So I like taking a flyer on Hopkins. 603 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: There you go. You're gonna get some Carson Wentz this weekend. 604 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: You're gonna get hopefully a great Sunday night game. Week 605 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: eighteen certainly going to be a wild one at that. 606 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 1: Make sure you are hanging out with us at Betting 607 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 1: Pros as well. Plus when Wildcard week comes, we've got 608 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: a lot of live streams coming up, including a live 609 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,919 Speaker 1: one live betting during one of the Wildcard games. We're 610 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 1: working on that too, So get very excited here. Make 611 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments 612 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,239 Speaker 1: below and of course ring the belt to that goes 613 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: ding for notification so you can be with us for 614 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: those live streams, especially the in game live betting of 615 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,439 Speaker 1: the Wildcard Game two as we get closer and closer 616 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 1: to the NFL Playoffs beginning, and don't forget to download 617 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: that VP app today. That'll do it for us. But 618 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: the story of the game goes on for the Welsh 619 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: and the Undertaker. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. 620 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 1: Enjoy Week eighteen. 621 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 622 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 623 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 624 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 625 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,919 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 626 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.