1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:04,080 Speaker 1: Live from our nation's camera. They want to turn out 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: the base. That's how they feel they will win this election. 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Both of their strengths have been taken away from them. 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: For in ten US voters live in thirteen states. Bloomberg 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: Sound On, The Insiders, the influencers, the insides. The voting 6 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: by male has favored Democrats, but voting in person early 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: has favored Republicans. That would rather be in Joe biden 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: shoes right now than the prompts. But do you never 9 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: take anything for granted. This is Bloomberg Sound On with 10 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: Kevin Surlan on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: m h D two Election Eve, and it brings uncertainty 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: not just in battleground states but also in cities around 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: the country. The latest on that end, market volatility, all 14 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 1: of that as we prepare for what is going to be, 15 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: without question, the most important week in American politics in 16 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: four years. Lots to get through, an all star handle, 17 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: every angle covered, from lawmakers to policymakers, to the insiders, 18 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 1: and of course the market reaction as well. President Trump 19 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: and Democrat nominee Joe Biden's campaign claimed the inside tracts 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: of victory on election eve, but girded their supporters to 21 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: prepare for a photo finish in the hotly contested presidential contest. 22 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: President President Trump was in North Carolina earlier today and 23 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: he talked about manufacturing jobs. Here he is, North Carolina 24 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: lost of all manufacturing jobs after those Biden betrayals. And 25 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: now he says, oh, I'm gonna he's trying to follow 26 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: my policy. He's trying to follow my policy. He's not 27 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: gonna do my policy. He's been doing this for forty 28 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: seven years plus. North Carolina a key battleground state eleven 29 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: electoral votes at state. Not to mention another hotly contested 30 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: down ballot race for Senator Tom Tillis, a Republican incumbent 31 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: up against Cal Cunningham, could be could be an early 32 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: bellweather Joe Biden, for his part, he was campaigning all 33 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: across the country, with campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Ohio. 34 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 1: Today here he is. Tomorrow, we have an opportunity to 35 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: put an annual presidency that's divided this nation. Tomorrow we 36 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: can put an in to a president has failed to 37 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: protect this nation. And tomorrow we can put an onto 38 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: a president is fan the flames of hey all across 39 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: this country, sticking with that ethos appeal. The recovery, both 40 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: from a COVID perspective as well as an economic one, 41 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: still very much uneven, as my colleagues in Bloomberg Business 42 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: Week put it. REI Picker reports on the eve of 43 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: presidential election, the U S economy continues to recover, albeit unevenly, 44 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: against a backdrop of surging COVID nineteen cases, and meanwhile, 45 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: from a market perspective, US stocks rebounding from the worst 46 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 1: week since March as investors bet on the energy, materials 47 00:02:55,320 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: and industrial sectors ahead of Tuesday's presidential election. Joining US 48 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: Now to break down the COVID, the politics, and the markets. 49 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: Genie's They Know I Own, a college professor and Bloomberg 50 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: Politics contributor, Genie, it was remarkable to see the marathon 51 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: sprint kick finish from the Biden campaign and the Trump 52 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: campaigns respectively. What did they do well? And what do 53 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: you think is a glaring question mark in this final sprint? Well, 54 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 1: I think the biggest glaring question markets. They didn't say 55 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: happy birthday to Kevin, sir, really so happy, Thank you 56 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: so much. Sense to me that you are an election baby. 57 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: You know I have to say, looking at Donald Trump 58 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: and Joe Biden, but Donald Trump in particular, the fact 59 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: that he has had this marathon and it is impressive, 60 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: whether you like him or voting for him or not, 61 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: what he has done, you know, just having COVID a 62 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: few weeks ago is incredible to me personally. Um that said, 63 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: I think the best things that the president has done 64 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: has been to try to energize his base, because we 65 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: know at this stage in an election, it's all about 66 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: getting out the vote. But I think unfortunately, as I 67 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: look at his closing sort of pitch, I do think 68 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: he misses the mark and I think he misses it 69 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: because he doesn't focus enough on what people want, which 70 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: is a good economy, And to me, that has been 71 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: the biggest miss. He just seems to want to rerun 72 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and I don't think that's going to work 73 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: for him. And I think, you know, Joe Biden, I 74 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: think the best thing he's done is focused. Really in 75 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: a way I'm stunned at because you know, we we 76 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: who have watched Joe Biden for many decades now, he's 77 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: usually not this discipline. I think he's had an incredibly 78 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: disciplined campaign and his message is still what it was 79 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: in the beginning. He's going to restore the White House, 80 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: restore character to the White House, and he's focusing like 81 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: a laser beam on this COVID. And I think making 82 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: this about Donald Trump works for Joe Biden. I think 83 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 1: he's done that well. Um, you know, I don't think 84 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: there's much that the Biden campaign has missed on at 85 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: this point, although I do think it's a very tight 86 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: races last few days, I think to that point precisely. 87 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: Jennie Zanna, who's with US Bloomberg Politics contributor at a 88 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: course of professor at Iona College. The NBC Maris poll 89 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: out from Pennsylvania, Mark Murray reports Democrats Joe Biden holds 90 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: a narrow lead over President Trump and the all important 91 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: battleground state of Pennsylvania. This is hot off the press, 92 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: folks from just two hours ago, while the two candidates 93 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: are tied in Arizona. According to the final NBC News 94 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: Maris state polls of the presidential election in p a, 95 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: Keystone state, Biden ahead by five points among likely voters 96 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: to forty six percent. That's well within the polls margin 97 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: of error three percent. M p A stay that they 98 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: are undecided or of voting for someone else. Okay, Genie, 99 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: this is why I find this remarkable. In September, Biden 100 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: had a nine point lead on election Eve. That's shrunk 101 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: to five points. That's all about momentum. I say this 102 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 1: because the president is held three rallies and p A 103 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: and you know, we are either going to say, come 104 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: when all of this is settled, I'm not going to 105 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 1: predict what it is. We're either going to say the 106 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 1: Biden campaign was disciplined or they were a disaster. And 107 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: if he loses Pennsylvania and goes to Ohio as he did, 108 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,119 Speaker 1: we're going to say that he was looking for votes 109 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: because they had internals that showed a collapse in in 110 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: p a uh and there was two little time to 111 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: make up ground elsewhere, or we're going to say he 112 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: was on the cusp of a major, major blue wave. Yeah. 113 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: You know, I think another thing if Donald Trump does 114 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: pull this out, I think another thing we will be 115 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: saying is that the economy does matter to voters, and 116 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: they are not blaming him for the COVID economy. And 117 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: I think that's critically important. I keep going back to 118 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: this gallop pole the other day over of Americans saying 119 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: they are personally better off than they were three years ago. 120 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 1: That's a critical number that I saw. You should bulb 121 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: that tweet that underlying geniez know was such an incredibly, 122 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: incredibly important because folks, people are still saying in internals 123 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: that they are not even an internals in public polls 124 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: that that they're better off than they were, uh four 125 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: years than they were four years ago, and yet they 126 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: are blaming the president for for a host of different issues. 127 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: It's it's it's it speaks to a question about how 128 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: polling is working. Let me ask you this. For all 129 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: of the questions about how a president Biden would govern 130 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: if he does win the presidency, I say, forget about 131 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: all of the naysayers and the background sources, and take 132 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: a look at what happens in the Senate. President A 133 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: president Biden would govern progressively if there's a blue wave, 134 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: and moderately if there's divided government. Am I wrong? I 135 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: think you're right, and I think he would have to 136 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: do that. And I think this is the big question 137 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: in my mind. Here is somebody who's been campaigning, You've 138 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: been following it so closely. He's saying he is going 139 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: to unite the American public. The problem for Joe Biden 140 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: if he's elected is you can't both unite the party, 141 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party and the American public. You're going to 142 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: have to do one or the other, and part of 143 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: that is going to be dictated by what happens in 144 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: the Senate. To your point, so you know, from a perspective, 145 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: Joe Biden would be better off with a more narrow 146 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: win in the Senate, where he would have be sort 147 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: of limited in terms of how left he could go 148 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: because these progressives would push him to the left. And 149 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: I think that's, by the way, another thing the Trump 150 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: campaign has missed the mark on many people are not 151 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: comfortable with an all all democratic Washington or in all 152 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: Republican Washington, and they, I think, in my mind, should 153 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: have made more of that because it's very likely Democrats 154 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: take the Senate, if they take the White House as well, 155 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: that could pretend great policy changes on taxes, regulation, the environment, education, 156 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: and a host of issues that some people in the 157 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: moderate sphere are going to be comfortable with. Well. And 158 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: you look, historically, markets have loved divided government market government 159 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: why because nothing gets done, nothing changes, and they like 160 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: certainty genius. They know I got a minute left with you. 161 00:08:58,559 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: Let me ask you this. Let me ask you a fun, 162 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: a fun question. What is your Do you have any 163 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: election traditions for me? I gotta have a slice of pizza. 164 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: If it's an election night, I gotta have pizza. I 165 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: gotta have pizza. I love it. Oh, I love it. 166 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 1: You know I don't. I really, I'm such a geek. 167 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: I just love to look at all the numbers. Genie, Genie, 168 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: I'm a nerd. I'm a dork, but I still love 169 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: my pizza. Genie Zeno, who has just been absolutely crushing 170 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: it for Bloomberg with Rick Davis. I mean, I'm just 171 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: so excited to buckle up for tomorrow as we all 172 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: work together on uncovering this massive, massive story. Truly, truly 173 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: such a privilege for me to be working alongside such incredible, 174 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: incredible talent. Jenie ZnO I Own, a college professor and 175 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor. Coming up, we check in with Ellen 176 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: Hughes Cromwick, Senior Resident Fellow for the Climate and Energy 177 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: Program at Third Way. We dive into the markets. What 178 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: what happens, what what can we expect? How will the 179 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: markets react? Regardless of the volatility coming from the nation's capital. 180 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: My name is Kevin Cerreli. I'm the chief Washington responded 181 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg TV and Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg. You're 182 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg. Sound On with Kevin Surley on Bloomberg 183 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: and one oh five point seven f M h D two. 184 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Currelli, Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and 185 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Radio. We've got an all star, all star 186 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: lineup today. Ash Wrights Senior Vice president and FSB Corps 187 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: Strategy Senior political advisor to George P. Bush will join 188 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: us to talk Texas next hour and Max Burns, Maxi's 189 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: back Democratic strategist of course Daily Beast contributor in New 190 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 1: York Daily News. You've read him everywhere, thrilled to have him. 191 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 1: Um So every state covered this Texas dynamic. This is 192 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: what's been going on in Harris County. Have you been 193 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: following this Harris County by Houston, hundred plus thousand votes 194 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: that local Republicans filed for drive in, drive through, dropping 195 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: off of the mail in ballots. It's a it's a remarkable, 196 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: remarkable case. And what could be, folks, the most litigated 197 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: US election in history. So we'll talk on UH to that, 198 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: to that as well. Let's dive into the market still 199 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 1: before we get back to politics, and the U S 200 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 1: stocks rebounded for the worst week since March has Investors 201 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: been on the energy, materials and industrial sectors ahead of 202 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: Tuesday's US presidential election. Crude oil rose the most and 203 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: more than three weeks dip buyers help the benchmark Spire 204 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: finish up one cent, though it closed down from the 205 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: highs of the day. Its slumped five point six percent 206 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: last week. The tech having NAZDAC one hundred lagged behind, 207 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: waited down by Apple and Amazon, as investors rotated from 208 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: so called work from home stocks and into sectors that 209 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: would benefit from more stimulus. We're gonna talk about the 210 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 1: stimulus stimulus with my next guest, but earlier today, of course, 211 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: my colleagues on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio across platform, 212 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,959 Speaker 1: talking to a host of different economists, including Daniel on 213 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: b NB part of this Chief US Economists and head 214 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: of Macro, and my buddy Charlie Meyers, Charles Myers of 215 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: Signum Global. He's the chairman of signum. Take a listen 216 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 1: to what they had to say about the politics impacting 217 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: the markets. What I'm most worried about is colm January, 218 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: there's still no clear uh picture as to whom the 219 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: President of the United States is. Reality will start to 220 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: set in. I think if the President Trump wins, and 221 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,479 Speaker 1: I think that the market will be far less enthusiastic 222 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: after the initial pop divided government. Biden in the White 223 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,599 Speaker 1: House without the Senate means that getting even emergency stimulus 224 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: through in January is gonna be very tough, and this 225 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: country is gonna need it. Ellen Cruz, I'm sorry, Ellen 226 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: Hughes Cromwicks. Sorry about that. Ellen Hughes Cromwick. It returns 227 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: to the program. So incredibly grateful to have her on 228 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: election eve. Truly, folks, one of the most smartest individuals 229 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: in town on these issues. She's a Senior Resident Fellow 230 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: for Climate and Energy Program at Third Way, the former 231 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: chief economist for the Commerce Department in the Obama administration, 232 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 1: and the former chief economist for Ford Motor Company. So 233 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: she knows every every every angle to everything we're talking about. Okay, Ellen, 234 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,839 Speaker 1: welcome back. Let me start with this before we talk 235 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: about the politics assuming that we don't get a result 236 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: in the next forty eight hours from the presidential level, 237 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: and also equally as important the other two branches of 238 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: government in terms of the breakdown of whether or not 239 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: there's a blue wave or divided government. Um, what pressure 240 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: does that uncertainty, Ellen Hughes Cromwick put on policy makers 241 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: in a lame duck from passing fiscal stimulus. Well, thanks, Ken. 242 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: You know, uncertainty is not good for anybody, whether they're 243 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: trying to get through this COVID crisis or they're sitting 244 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: in DC. As a policy maker, the uncertainty really hurts 245 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:12,079 Speaker 1: long term economic growth full stop. And I think we've 246 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: got to keep our eye on that. So regardless, we 247 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: have got to get some fiscal policy stimulus here. We've 248 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: talked about this in the past. You know, don't take 249 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: it from me, take it from FED Chair J Powell, 250 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: who has been really pounding the table that we need 251 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: to have fiscal stimulus. All of the data coming out 252 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: show us that there is a situation of the haves 253 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: and the have nots. We just finished a clean energy 254 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: sector survey, just got the results this morning, and we 255 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: have fifty five percent of businesses saying that they would 256 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: want to sign up for another P P P and 257 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: if they don't get release, are going to start laying off, 258 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: are looking at furloughs, are looking at cutting wages. So 259 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: we're on the on the cusp here of a significant 260 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: down leg and I think that's the thing that we 261 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: should be focused on. It's so so incredibly important. And 262 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: I thought Daniel on a BNP Pariba, the chief US 263 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: economist and head of macro Strategy, really just talking about Ellen, 264 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: just about how much the markets have priced in some 265 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: type of uncertainty, but they are worried about there being 266 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: a dramatic situation up until inauguration day, for example. That's 267 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: when you start to call them to constitutional questions, but 268 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: seeking with your point specifically um about energy policy. You know, 269 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: I asked the same question earlier to to Jeanie's a 270 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: know of Iona College and of course of Bloomber Politics contributor, 271 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: and I'll ask you to you as well. If people 272 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: want to know how the president will govern, whether it's 273 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: a second term of President Trump or a first term 274 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: at President Biden, the pressure from the other two branches 275 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: of government and whether or not there is divided government 276 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: is the answer. So if people want to know whether 277 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: or not a Joe Biden administration would have to go 278 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: so far to the left on energy as it relates 279 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: to fracking, it really could be dependent upon if if 280 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: the Senate holds Republicans. Well, you know, I think the 281 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: one thing to to really point out here is that 282 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: everyone is laser focused on jobs and job creation because 283 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: we can't live through a situation where fifty of businesses, 284 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: small businesses, you know, are on the cusp of failure 285 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: of going out of business. Our survey showed that we 286 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: have five percent basically saying they're going to have to 287 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: each other their business. I mean, we can't afford to 288 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: have that happen. And we know that there's so much 289 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: innovation and tech on clean energy that is just printing 290 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: jobs if we give a little nudge, and I do 291 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:07,439 Speaker 1: believe that a lot of policy makers are starting to 292 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: see that and they recognize that, you know, relief has 293 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: to address the job situation and the fact that we 294 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: are seeing a lot of businesses that could really start 295 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: to rock and roll with job creation on the clean 296 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: energy side. It's going to be remarkable. And again, folks, 297 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,439 Speaker 1: if you're just joining us, Ellen Hughes, Chromic Senior Resident 298 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: Fellow for the Climate and Energy Program. A third way 299 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: is there from from your perspective and the data that 300 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: you've collected, Ellen and your team has collected on energy 301 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: that you can share with us. Now, what pressure will 302 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: Abiden administration face from within his own party, not from 303 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: the far left, but from Connor Lamb country, from suburban 304 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 1: Philadelphia country if he is elected president as it relates 305 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: to to keeping fracking jobs. Well, you know, I think 306 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: the conversation is kind of moved on. Frankly, you know 307 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: that that's kind of looking in the rear view mirror. 308 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 1: We are looking forward to the fact that you know, 309 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: as an economist, I look at what's the average cost, 310 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: what's the variable cost, and the unit cost of renewables 311 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: has plummeted and and therefore, you know, we've got a 312 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: lot of businesses who are already moving towards those clean 313 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: energy technologies. And uh, you know, my neck of the 314 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 1: woods up in Michigan, you've got a lot of companies 315 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: related to you know, the the automakers that are looking 316 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 1: ahead to how can I strategize and get my business 317 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 1: getting ready for elect vehicles And they see that as 318 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: the future. So people have moved on frankly and looked 319 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: at you know, what are these new opportunities that are 320 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: really cropping up and that are able to generate a 321 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: lot of jobs. She is, of course talking about her 322 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: state of Michigan. Sixteen elector old votes. That's at stake tomorrow, 323 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: a key battleground, key battleground state. We will all be 324 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: duning in to see how the suburbs around Detroit turn out, 325 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 1: obviously to see if that goes to President Trump or 326 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's able. So when Ellen, he's chromic. Thank you, 327 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: my friend, Senior Resident Fellow for Climate and Energy Program 328 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: at Third Way UH and now, of course the former 329 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: chief Economists for the Commerce Department in the Obama administration, 330 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Cirelli. More politics. Next, you're listening to Bloomberg 331 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 1: Live from our nation. They want to turn off the base. 332 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: That's how they feel they will win this election. Both 333 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: of their strengths have been taken away from them. For 334 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: inten US voters live in thirteen states. Bloomberg sound on 335 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: the insiders, the influencers, the insides. The voting by male 336 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 1: has favored Democrats, but voting in person early has favored Republicans. 337 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: I would rather be in Joe biden shoes right now. 338 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: Do you never take anything of Grandon? This is Bloomberg 339 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg two. Election even. 340 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: We have every angle covered, We check in with the campaigns, 341 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: We figure out what is going on in the final 342 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 1: hours now hours until Paul's open on election day. This 343 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: is ninety million Americans having already cast their ballot. What 344 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,479 Speaker 1: will we know and when will we know it? And 345 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: how will it impact the economy? Uncertainty on the recovery front. 346 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign claimed the 347 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: inside track to victory on election eve. Do you believe it? 348 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: We are on election eve, but they girded their supporters 349 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: to prepare for a photo finish and the hotly contested 350 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 1: presidential contest. President Trump rallying in Fayettsville, North Carolina today, 351 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: the first of five scheduled stops, the President criticizing Joe 352 00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: Biden's record on chops. North Carolina lost fift of all 353 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs after those Biden betrayals, and now he says, oh, 354 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna he's trying to follow my policy. He's trying 355 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 1: to follow my policy. He's not gonna do my policy. 356 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: Has been doing this for forty seven years plus. Joe 357 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: Biden rallying in Cleveland, Ohio to kick off his day 358 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: before election day. It's the first of four scheduled stops 359 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: that he had today. Here's Joe Biden. Tomorrow we have 360 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: an opportunity to put it in to a presidency that's 361 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: divided this nation. Tomorrow we can put an in to 362 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 1: a president has failed to protect this nation. And tomorrow 363 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,719 Speaker 1: we can put it onto a president is fan the 364 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,959 Speaker 1: flames of hey all across this country. It's the economic 365 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: versus the ethos appeal, and as Reid Picker reports in 366 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week on the eve of the presidential election, 367 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: the U. S economy continues to recover, albeit unevenly, against 368 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 1: a backdrop of surging COVID nineteen cases. I was struck 369 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: by this. Some part to the economy continue to advance 370 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: or have already returned to pre pandemic activity levels, but 371 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: others are struggling amid the coronavirus crisis. There were more 372 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 1: than five hundred and fifty four thousand new virus cases 373 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: recorded last week alone. That's the most on record and 374 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: underscoring the difficulty of a full economic recovery without a vaccine. 375 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: We should note the dynamics in Europe Germany, France to 376 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 1: progressive countries and now UK a conservative country. They have 377 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: all had to impose new restrictions, economic restrictions, business restrictions 378 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 1: as a result of the soaring cases in there. And personally, 379 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:44,360 Speaker 1: I think that that global context is incredibly, incredibly important 380 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: when we talk about the coronavirus. Aash writes with me, 381 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 1: senior vice president at f s B Core Strategies and 382 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: a senior political advisor to George P. Bush, Max Burns, 383 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 1: MAXI returns, Democratic strategist, contributor at The Daily Beast and 384 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: the New York Daily News and The Independent. Max, I'll 385 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: start with you, uh, you know, in terms of where 386 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: we go in the next twelve hours. Now, what has 387 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: the Biden campaign done right and what has What's going 388 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 1: to keep you up tonight? I think there's no way 389 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 1: I'm going to sleep tonight, no matter what, just like 390 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: the last week in general. Honest, That's why I mean, 391 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: like Maxie, he's always honest. Go ahead. I think the 392 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: Biden campaign has done very well in getting not only 393 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 1: Joe Biden out, but all of his surro gets out. 394 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: We've seen Barack Obama gives some incredible speeches. Kamala Harris 395 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: has been all over the country, and at least speaking 396 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: as someone who was watching just as closely, I feel 397 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: a huge difference in enthusiasm not just among Democrats, but 398 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: among voters in general who have been concerned about Donald Trump, 399 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: who maybe gave him a chance in and aren't sure 400 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: about it now. And the numbers we've seen don't lie. 401 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: This is going to be an election that will blow 402 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: all others out of the water from our memory. You know, 403 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: Ash rates with us the first time on the program, 404 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: as I'm very appreciative to have you on election eve 405 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: on such an important show. Uh, you know, from your perspective, 406 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: let me ask you the same question. What is the 407 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: Trump campaign done right? And what's going to keep you 408 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 1: up in night? Is this momentum in the final push 409 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: real or is it contrived? Yeah? I know, and that's 410 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: exactly what I was gonna say. It's almost uh, it's 411 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 1: almost repeating, uh what Max had said, and I think 412 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: it said he's got to carry the momentum through. If 413 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: you look at at all of the swing states and 414 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,959 Speaker 1: the important places and counties in the country where we're 415 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: gonna be, where we're gonna be focused on over the 416 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 1: next twenty four hours. Donald Trump passed to carry momentum 417 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: through and those and that's the only thing that's going 418 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: to carry him above uh and and and a turnout battle, 419 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: because that's essentially what we're looking at right now is 420 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: it's it's a true turnout battle in Pennsylvania and Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, 421 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: you name it. It's down to turn out and and 422 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: it's all about momentum. I think right now it tends 423 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 1: to lean on Donald Trump's side. I mean, he's bringing 424 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: in crowds of at least thirty thousand every time, over 425 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: a hundred and sixty thousand on average on Facebook live 426 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: events every time he has a rally, and he just 427 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: has to carry that momentum through to the polling location. 428 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: So you think that momentum is real. You think it's real, 429 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: all right, So you know, and and to that point, 430 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: Max Burns NBC News Maris Pole just came out this 431 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: afternoon the final state by state polls. Obviously there's only 432 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 1: a day left. UH this cycle from from NBC News 433 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: and p A in Arizona. I want to focus on Pennsylvania. 434 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: Back in September, Biden had a nine point per percentage 435 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: point lead. Nine points back in September. Okay, Mark Murray, 436 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 1: NBC News is Mark Murray reports Democrat Joe Biden holds 437 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 1: a narrow lead over President Trump and the all important 438 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump won p A four years ago, 439 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 1: first Republican to do so at the presidential level. Since 440 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,439 Speaker 1: Biden now is only ahead by five points, it was 441 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: nine in September, five points on Election NIV and that's 442 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: still within the polls margin of error obviously, folks. I mean, 443 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,919 Speaker 1: you look at the electoral map. You need to seventy 444 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: to win. You look at the electoral map, and that 445 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: battleground state of Pennsylvania just gonna be so so incredibly, 446 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: so incredibly important of twenty states and p A. And honestly, Max, 447 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,360 Speaker 1: we're either going to say Joe Biden was a genius 448 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: or that Joe Biden had internals that pushed him to 449 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: look for votes in Ohio because internal saw p A collapsing. 450 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: Am I wrong? And that's why he was in Ohio today. 451 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: It's either he's genius and he's on the cusp of 452 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: a blue wave or it's a nightmare and this thing 453 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: is getting away from him. No, exactly. And I think 454 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 1: I've been among the more skeptical through the campaign of 455 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 1: this idea of sort of a blue wave blowout on 456 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 1: the presidential level. UH. And I expected to see some 457 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,640 Speaker 1: tightening in places like Pennsylvania. This is going to be compounded, 458 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,959 Speaker 1: of course, by the fact that everyone in Pennsylvania has 459 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: said that they don't expect to have full results on 460 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 1: election night. And what what happens in the days to 461 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 1: come and whether that process is meddled with, is really 462 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: going to pay the picture of whether Joe Biden wins 463 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: cleanly or loses cleanly, or we have something that's just 464 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 1: drawn out like two thousand then poisons politics for years. Well, 465 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: And I think g n r n C chairwoman Rona 466 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 1: McDaniel tweeting out just this afternoon after that poll came out, 467 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 1: eighty point one percent have not voted. UH. According to 468 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: their UH their their latest Scranton rally data, twenty one 469 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: are not Republican and they've signed up twelve thousand, eight 470 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: hundred and ninety four sign ups in just Pennsylvania alone. 471 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 1: So again they're trying to continue to push this idea. 472 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 1: We're gonna find out who's spinning and who's telling the 473 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: truth very shortly. But you're right, we might not have 474 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 1: those election results. Uh and p A. And you know 475 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 1: what we're gonna do, folks, because I think we've got 476 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: the perfect panel to do this. Coming up, I'm gonna 477 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: pick Ash's brain about Texas because I've got a lot 478 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: of questions about what's happening down there in the great 479 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 1: state of Texas. But then we're gonna go through just 480 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 1: for everyone to take a pause, and I'm gonna walk 481 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: everybody through election night and when we're anticipating which states 482 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 1: polls are gonna close, and also when we can anticipate 483 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: some of the results for some of the battlegrounds. It's different, 484 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 1: as MAXI was just pointing out between p A, North 485 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 1: Carolina and Wisconsin, for example, we might get an answer 486 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: in Wisconsin at like three in the morning on November four. 487 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Surreally, Chief Washington Correspondent fro Bloomberg TV and 488 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: Radio panel better be thinking about what their election traditions 489 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: are and if they eat pizza, that's what they have 490 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 1: to have it's not an election night unless I'm having 491 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: a bite of pizza. You're listening to Bloomberg. You're listening 492 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. Sound On with Kevin Surrele on Bloomberg and 493 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 1: one oh five point seven m h D two. I'm 494 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: Kevin Sirelei, chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio. 495 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: Maroufles running the boards, and he just puts in the 496 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: group chat. Now I want pizza. I always want pizza. 497 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: It's my one election night tradition that if I don't 498 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,959 Speaker 1: have a bite of pizza, it's not an election all right. 499 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: So in the break, you know, I'm checking my phone 500 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: stand on top of the latest polls. We've got an 501 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 1: all star panel, Ash Writes with us UH senior vice 502 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: president and FSB core strategies and a senior political advisor 503 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 1: to George P. Bush, MAXI Burns, Democratic strategist always on. 504 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: And I get another political text. You know tomorrow's election. 505 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: I didn't know. I didn't know tomorrow was election day. 506 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: And then I get all these texts throughout the day. 507 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 1: It's so and So, it's Biden, it's Trump. I have 508 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: a v I P thing waiting for me. I don't 509 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: even know. It's so annoying everyone's getting them. I go 510 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 1: on Fox News, Julian Musto reporting on Fox dot and 511 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: Fox news dot com. Billy, this is the headline. Billions 512 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 1: with a B with a B, Billions of political texts 513 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: since in twenty elections final push. That's not even the primaries. 514 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: I remember being in Iowa with Suckerman, our producer, and 515 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: I'm saying that every voter that we had, they would say, 516 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 1: I just can't wait for these texts end. Give it 517 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: nine more months, folks, because you gotta keep going. In 518 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 1: the waning days. According to Fox, of a presidential race 519 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: run amid a disruptive and deadly global pandemic, both campaigns 520 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: and advocacy groups have sent billions of political text messages 521 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: to woo voters. Wow vote dot org said in July 522 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: that it would be sending election reminders to more than 523 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: six million voters in twenty and across the rust belt 524 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: battleground of Michigan. Recipients have been inundated with more than 525 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: fifty two million political texts since accept timber Okay, the 526 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 1: Trump president Trump's re election campaign, reportedly said that it 527 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: would send out a billion texts, more than a billion texts. 528 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 1: I mean, Ash, you're a Republican strategist. I get it, 529 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 1: you're one of the best in the biz. You know, 530 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: you know everybody, but at some point you gotta tell 531 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: your colleagues and your party and across the aisle. Cool 532 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 1: it with the texts. Absolutely, I'm pretty for sure that 533 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 1: half of those billion went to my personal cell phone. 534 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: I think I get them incessantly. It's it's really really 535 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: out of control. But I guess it's the new it's 536 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: the new email. You know, it took us about one 537 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 1: election cycle to to ruin that media of communication. But 538 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: you know, here we are left everything else but joking aside. 539 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,959 Speaker 1: Does the data reflect that it actually works? Because I 540 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: get them and I just delete them and I get angry. 541 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: So I think, you know, last cycle it I think 542 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 1: the data reflected that it really did where people tend 543 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: to open them more, which is something you don't get 544 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: with email addresses, where you know less than of people 545 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 1: are actually opening them. Now you know now that they're reading, 546 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 1: you know they're reading them, You're getting the information in 547 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 1: front of them. But whether they're actually driving people out, 548 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: I think, you know, for this cycle is to be determined. 549 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 1: The reality is. It's just just its oversaturated and very 550 00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 1: very quickly, and I think that's gonna have a bounce 551 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,719 Speaker 1: back and not gonna last too much longer in political campaign. 552 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 1: All right, what's happening in Texas? Because I got my 553 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal open Harris County, Rachel Adams heard reports on 554 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. A federal judge rejected a bid by 555 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 1: Republican activists to invalidate a hundred and twenty seven thousand 556 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: votes in the most populous county in Texas. The hearing 557 00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 1: in federal court took place one day after the state 558 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: Supreme Court denied the effort to reject votes that were 559 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: cast using drive through voting in the county Harris County. Um, 560 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,480 Speaker 1: what's going on? I mean, good move, bad move? What 561 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: are the Republicans and in the state? Yeah, I mean, look, 562 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: you know, I wish that our activists, I don't I 563 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: don't see any just personally me, I didn't see any 564 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: real value in that lawsuit and spending time in that measure. 565 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: If a person is going to vote with their idea, etcetera, 566 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't see a huge difference between 567 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: being in a car versus being in a polling booth, etcetera, 568 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: as long as it's done the right way. If you 569 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 1: look at the hard data, it's interesting about Texas as 570 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 1: we've had so far about seven point two million people 571 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 1: show up to vote, which means we really only have 572 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 1: about three million people left to vote that are actually registered. 573 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: And right now it's a lot of people, but the 574 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: numbers aren't actually that different from where they were in 575 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. It's sept For Republican turnout is a little 576 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,719 Speaker 1: bit down. So in twenty sixteen on this day, so 577 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 1: after early voting it into Republicans held about thirty one 578 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 1: percent of the total turnout, and right now today we're 579 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,719 Speaker 1: at seven. Democrats are actually upper percentage. So in sixteen 580 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: there at twenty and today there at one. And what's 581 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 1: also kind of the most fascinating, And then I'll explain 582 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 1: to you why I think that it's a little premature 583 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 1: to say that Texas is going blew this cycle. But 584 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 1: seven percent of our total turnout or either people with 585 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,000 Speaker 1: no primary history meaning they only vote in general elections, 586 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: or they have never voted in an election before. And 587 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: what why I think that when you when you when 588 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: you take all of these numbers. It's a large turnout, 589 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: but it's not necessarily moving the needle from where it 590 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 1: was four years ago. And and that's really just the 591 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 1: early voting that I just walked you through. But what 592 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 1: happens typically in Texas As Republicans show up, like almost 593 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:11,800 Speaker 1: everywhere else, in massive waves on election day. So, for example, 594 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: after early voting, as I mentioned, Republicans were in the 595 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 1: low twenties and turn out we actually finished it overt 596 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: Democrats were down to sixteen percent after election day in 597 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. And so I think the numbers have continued 598 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 1: to trend almost the exact same as I have in 599 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 1: the past, and they will continue to do so. Now 600 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 1: not to say that Texas isn't trending blue, and I 601 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: think we will in election cycles to come. I just 602 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: don't think that the numbers are showing that in this 603 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 1: particular cycle. Alright, alright, we just heard it from again, folks, 604 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: probably the best Republican strategists in the in the Lone 605 00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,240 Speaker 1: Star State, Uh Ash Wright, senior vice president of FSP 606 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,840 Speaker 1: Corpse Strategies and senior political advisor to George P. Bush. 607 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 1: Of course, uh very much a rising. So I don't 608 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 1: even say rising any think he is a star now 609 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,280 Speaker 1: within Republican circles, and you know all of that chatter 610 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: starts Thursday, Friday of this week. Yeah, Wednesday tomorrow. Already 611 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,839 Speaker 1: I'm seeing like, oh, zech Cruz, what's he gonna do? 612 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: And and all that. But let's let's focus on election 613 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 1: E before we get into all that. I couldn't even 614 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: have that conversation with the source today. I thought, I'm 615 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,440 Speaker 1: going to get my cup of coffee. It's my birthday. 616 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 1: I can't talk about. I'm focused, focused, focused on on 617 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: the next forty eight hours as they're boarding up all 618 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,239 Speaker 1: of Washington, d C. Maxie, let me come back to you, 619 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 1: my friend, because you know, I'm looking at the Senate 620 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: map and I'm gonna put the same questions that I 621 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: put to uh to Ash to you, which is, Republicans 622 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,360 Speaker 1: are going to try to pick up Minnesota and Michigan 623 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 1: in terms of the what they're what they're seeing, uh, 624 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,800 Speaker 1: And just quickly in thirty seconds, are you nervous about 625 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,640 Speaker 1: losing any of those sites or Mitch McConnell trying to 626 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 1: to pick up some states? I'm not. I think the 627 00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,240 Speaker 1: last round of polls out of Michigan has put Gary 628 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 1: Peters well ahead. Minnesota will be just fine. The challenges 629 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 1: how do we make sure that people are actually allowed 630 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,399 Speaker 1: to vote? I mean that Texas case where Republicans wanted 631 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:09,839 Speaker 1: to throw out over a hundred thousand lawfully cast ballots. Uh, 632 00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: that's just shows you where we're at whereat people openly 633 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,000 Speaker 1: trying to throw out or limit the ability of people 634 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: to use their right to vote. All right, coming, I'm 635 00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,760 Speaker 1: next me checking with Congressman Front shell down in Arkansas 636 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 1: talking about the economy and the markets. Then what's on 637 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: the panel's radar this election eve of Kevin Surley. You're 638 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg's sound on with Kevin 639 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: Surley on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven f 640 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 1: m h D two. Such an appropriate song. I was 641 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,359 Speaker 1: just thinking of that when mural started playing a better 642 00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:01,959 Speaker 1: sweet symphony Election ev the verve. I'm Kevin CURRELLI Chief 643 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 1: Washington correspondent fro Bloomberg Television and from Bloomberg Radio. Do 644 00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:10,320 Speaker 1: you believe it? Here? We are here, we are the moment, 645 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,799 Speaker 1: we're here. This is it. They bought it up the 646 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 1: windows in d C. And we're here. Election even let 647 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,879 Speaker 1: that sink in for a minute. It was only how 648 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,879 Speaker 1: many weeks ago, Matt Shirley, who's in with me here 649 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,240 Speaker 1: at the producer? How many weeks ago when President Trump 650 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 1: was at Walter read like a month? About a month ago, 651 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:34,439 Speaker 1: five weeks? Only five weeks when the president was having 652 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,440 Speaker 1: Walter read. He was impeached in January, the end of January. 653 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 1: It's just remarkable. The pace of this news is just dizzying, dizzying, 654 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,319 Speaker 1: I tell you. Joining me on the telephone line is 655 00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 1: Congressman Friend Chill, Republican from Arkansas, truly one of the 656 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 1: best um wonkiest lawmakers that there is. And he and 657 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,360 Speaker 1: I've covered Congressman Hail for oh my gosh, like the 658 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 1: decade I've been in d C. So it's always it's 659 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 1: it's great to have him on election even I'm so grateful, Congressman. 660 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: Before we chat, I want to play for you what 661 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 1: some of my colleagues UM had to say with regards 662 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: to what happened in the markets today. And I want 663 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,400 Speaker 1: to get your take because it sets up this segment 664 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 1: really well. US stocks rebounded from the worst week since 665 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 1: March as investors bet on the energy, materials and industrial sectors. 666 00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 1: Ahead of Tuesday's presidential election dip buyer's help. The best 667 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:30,799 Speaker 1: mark benchmark SMP five hundred finished up one percent, though 668 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 1: it closed down from the highs of the day. It's 669 00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,960 Speaker 1: slumped five point six percent last week. The tech heavy 670 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,800 Speaker 1: NASTAC one hundred lag behind, weighted down by Apple and Amazon, 671 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,360 Speaker 1: as investors rotated from so called work from home stocks 672 00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 1: and into sectors that would benefit from more stimulus. I'm 673 00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 1: gonna pick your brain about stimulus in a second, but 674 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,959 Speaker 1: by colleagues spoke with Daniel on A BNP Paraba, chief 675 00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:58,240 Speaker 1: US Economists and head of macro Strategy, and my buddy 676 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,480 Speaker 1: Charlie Myers of Signalm Global. He's the chairman of signam Global. 677 00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 1: Take a listen to what they said. What I'm most 678 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 1: worried about is com January. There's still no clear uh 679 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 1: picture as to whom the President of the United States is. 680 00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,239 Speaker 1: Reality will start to set in. I think if the 681 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,879 Speaker 1: President Trump wins, and I think that the market will 682 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: be far less enthusiastic after the initial pop divided government. 683 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,400 Speaker 1: Biden in the White House without the Senate means that 684 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: getting even emergency stimulus through in January is gonna be 685 00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 1: very tough, and this country is gonna need it, Okay, Congressman, 686 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,960 Speaker 1: from a from a business main street perspective, and your 687 00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,160 Speaker 1: investment and perspective as well, I mean, how should they 688 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:40,680 Speaker 1: be looking at the next six weeks in American politics? Well, Kevin, 689 00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,360 Speaker 1: it's great to be with you. The best news of 690 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,280 Speaker 1: the day is not Joe Biden hanging out with Lady Gaga, 691 00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,160 Speaker 1: but the fact that you're having a birthday. Thank you, Congressman. 692 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:54,080 Speaker 1: Than I'm a cup, I'm a cup half full person 693 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:59,400 Speaker 1: on stimulus, for extending paycheck protection, fixing this broken so 694 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 1: at the vision around unemployment, giving our governors more authority 695 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,520 Speaker 1: to spend the cares that money more effectively, particularly saying 696 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,919 Speaker 1: for broadband. So I don't I don't have a pessimistic 697 00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,000 Speaker 1: view of the results tomorrow. I think the Congress can 698 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 1: come together target some very narrow stimulus that can even 699 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,359 Speaker 1: meet the muster of the Senate. And that's what I'm 700 00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,279 Speaker 1: gonna work for. Once the elections over tomorrow, I'm re 701 00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,880 Speaker 1: elected and go back to work for the American people. 702 00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,359 Speaker 1: So okay, So so walk me. He Congressman friend shows 703 00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: on the line. I don't want to get him superstitious 704 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,600 Speaker 1: he's in a conservative district. Um. But but walk me 705 00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:38,040 Speaker 1: through this that there's a lot of volatility congressmen, Um, 706 00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 1: and what pressure would that like if we don't have 707 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: I don't want to get to hypothetical, but truly, if 708 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: we don't have a result at the presidential level, does 709 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 1: that make it more complicated to get fiscal stimulus in 710 00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,400 Speaker 1: the lame duck? Yeah? Potentially. I mean markets hate uncertainty. 711 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,560 Speaker 1: I think the chopping is in the market is people 712 00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,920 Speaker 1: finding their earnings outlook for number one, that's number one, 713 00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 1: but number two just uncertainty, like what direction will we 714 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 1: take on energy policy, health care policy, tax policy. These 715 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,280 Speaker 1: are big issues and that's a stark contrast between Biden, 716 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 1: you know, and Trump. But I don't. Yes, under some 717 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,640 Speaker 1: worst case scenario, and we saw something close to that 718 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:21,359 Speaker 1: in the thirty plus days that Bush the Gore was circulating, 719 00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,440 Speaker 1: that would hurt, uh, the efforts I think to get 720 00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:28,080 Speaker 1: consensus on stimulus. But I'm optimistic that we can make 721 00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:33,040 Speaker 1: make progress and uh, we can get something done before 722 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,240 Speaker 1: we go home for Christmas. Okay, So I'm looking across 723 00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:39,560 Speaker 1: the globe and and um, you and I have talked 724 00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,799 Speaker 1: about I think Republicans have struggled in the past year 725 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,320 Speaker 1: to to bring COVID nineteen into a global perspective, especially 726 00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,560 Speaker 1: in for more of a Western hemisphere perspective, the United 727 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,320 Speaker 1: Kingdom UK Boris Johnson. I mean he's having to impose 728 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,680 Speaker 1: new economic restrictions as a result of the Surgeon cases. 729 00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,960 Speaker 1: UK obviously a conservative country and leader leadership there Germany, 730 00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:05,319 Speaker 1: Angela Merkel, France, Emmanuel McCrone. These are progressives. They've had 731 00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:09,160 Speaker 1: to impose new economic restrictions. I'm looking at the Surgeon cases, 732 00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,120 Speaker 1: more than five dred and fifty thousand COVID cases last 733 00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,560 Speaker 1: week alone in the United States, and I'm looking at 734 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,279 Speaker 1: this thing thinking a month from now, are we going 735 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,080 Speaker 1: to have to have more economic restrictions? And if we do, 736 00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,880 Speaker 1: is that going to put more pressure on Washington to 737 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,720 Speaker 1: pass more fiscal stimulus as that these very similar debates 738 00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,239 Speaker 1: that are being had around the world. Well yes, I 739 00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,839 Speaker 1: also think though when you look, I'll just take here 740 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,839 Speaker 1: in Arkansas, where we never shut down completely. We have 741 00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,759 Speaker 1: sales tax revenues up year over year, not down. We 742 00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,760 Speaker 1: have all of our schools open now in a hybrid 743 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,280 Speaker 1: format where we have students both in classroom and some virtually, 744 00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,560 Speaker 1: and we really are, I think, learning to live with 745 00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,759 Speaker 1: this virus until we get the vaccine and and the 746 00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:57,000 Speaker 1: therapeutics completely distributed in our country. And really, Kevin, in 747 00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:58,800 Speaker 1: my view, and we've talked about this for the past 748 00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:02,239 Speaker 1: seven months, we have to be realistic about this. And 749 00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:08,320 Speaker 1: complete shutdowns are not killing the virus or delaying that infection. 750 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,399 Speaker 1: And they're not even doing that. They're not even doing 751 00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,239 Speaker 1: that in France, mind you, or Germany or the UK 752 00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,080 Speaker 1: so to that point. But if there are, if they do, 753 00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,640 Speaker 1: for example, shut down Jim's as they have done in Europe, 754 00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,319 Speaker 1: or closed restaurants and bars at a certain hour, that's 755 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,439 Speaker 1: gonna I don't even want to get theatrical here because 756 00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:27,640 Speaker 1: I don't have to. But the histrionics of it, the 757 00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,399 Speaker 1: economic pain for these businesses in the cities, I mean, 758 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,440 Speaker 1: that's going to break havoc right before the highest well. 759 00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,880 Speaker 1: And and look that's why starting August one, we should 760 00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,960 Speaker 1: have extended the paycheck Protection program a hundred and thirty 761 00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,640 Speaker 1: eight billion dollars and allow people to double dip, particularly 762 00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,600 Speaker 1: our restaurants and our small businesses like gems. Things over 763 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,719 Speaker 1: really connected to density and the customer service and this 764 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,360 Speaker 1: has been held up, as you know from covering Washington 765 00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:57,120 Speaker 1: by the fight between Speaker Pelosi Steve Manuchin and the 766 00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,400 Speaker 1: concerns in the Senate about the size of spending. And 767 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,640 Speaker 1: we need to get that to resolution so that we 768 00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:06,360 Speaker 1: have those raceources necessary for our small business. Okay, what 769 00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:07,960 Speaker 1: do you think about tomorrow? Now? I got it. Now 770 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:10,360 Speaker 1: we gotta go rapid fire, rapid fire. Who wins the 771 00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:14,560 Speaker 1: president race? I still believe that's cruely it calls up 772 00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:18,560 Speaker 1: and it's a it's a slight horses nose to Donald 773 00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,960 Speaker 1: Trump because he knows how to get out the vote 774 00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,440 Speaker 1: in these critical swing states, and I think his operations 775 00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,280 Speaker 1: superior to Biden. Yeah, the congressman, he didn't have Gaga. 776 00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:34,520 Speaker 1: I mean they were chatting. They were chatting about lebriv 777 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,480 Speaker 1: But I can't say it on air, But go ahead. 778 00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,520 Speaker 1: You know that's a secret weapon that I've never tried before. 779 00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:45,120 Speaker 1: On the left out the photo. Okay, who wins the Senate? 780 00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:48,760 Speaker 1: Who wins the Senate? I think the Senate stays uh 781 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,680 Speaker 1: with Republican but we don't have the same number seats. 782 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,520 Speaker 1: We lose the sea two. Okay, what what state keeps 783 00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,719 Speaker 1: you up at night, and in terms of both for 784 00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,120 Speaker 1: the president, for the presidential level, which which state keeps 785 00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:04,399 Speaker 1: you up? Central level? Pennsylvania, Senate, Colorado? Really? Really, Now, 786 00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,240 Speaker 1: what do you think? Do you think that the House 787 00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:12,680 Speaker 1: stays blue? Uh? If Donald Trump has a big night 788 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,719 Speaker 1: tomorrow night, and I can't I can't analyze for you 789 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:20,200 Speaker 1: analytically precisely what that means. Uh. It could, we could, 790 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,360 Speaker 1: We could get the House back and make Kevin McCarthy 791 00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,680 Speaker 1: our speaker. But if if, if, if he creeps in 792 00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,920 Speaker 1: a victory and the electoral College and just does Okay, 793 00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,040 Speaker 1: I'm afraid we might pick up a few seats, but 794 00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:32,759 Speaker 1: not go all the way we need to go. One 795 00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:39,440 Speaker 1: minute left. What is your election night tradition? Gosh, My 796 00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:43,319 Speaker 1: election night tradition is taking a nap right after the 797 00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:48,160 Speaker 1: polls closed. I finished sign waving and going crazy, getting 798 00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:53,719 Speaker 1: a bite to eat. This is fascinating. Then going into 799 00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,520 Speaker 1: analytical mode, that's wow, wow, taking a nap because that's 800 00:45:57,560 --> 00:45:59,800 Speaker 1: the time to do it is literally when it's do 801 00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 1: you like a meal that you eat or like a 802 00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:05,200 Speaker 1: go to meal? Or I don't. But I'm now thinking 803 00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,080 Speaker 1: more and more about my guest musical host. So I'm 804 00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:11,440 Speaker 1: gonna write up a new playlist. I'm a lady. Well, 805 00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,040 Speaker 1: here it is for you. You can walk out on 806 00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,839 Speaker 1: stage tomorrow night. Thank you, Thank you very much. My friend, 807 00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,360 Speaker 1: Congressman Friend Schill, Republican from Arkansas. I've got it's really 808 00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:52,360 Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg nine nine one. My name is 809 00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,560 Speaker 1: Kevin Surreally. I'm the chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television 810 00:46:55,680 --> 00:47:00,839 Speaker 1: and for Bloomberg Radio. Rocky. Who's gonna be running up 811 00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:04,359 Speaker 1: those art museum steps in the City of Brotherly Love? 812 00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,800 Speaker 1: Will it be President Trump or will it be Joe Biden. 813 00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,839 Speaker 1: We will find out. Maybe we won't find out tomorrow night. 814 00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:18,040 Speaker 1: Maybe we will find out in a day, a week, 815 00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,560 Speaker 1: dare I say a month at the Supreme Court. We're 816 00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:25,719 Speaker 1: gonna find out. But we're gonna cover every every angle. 817 00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,959 Speaker 1: I gotta say. When we're putting together the show, I thought, 818 00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,600 Speaker 1: what a great panel. Ash Wright, senior vice president at 819 00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,560 Speaker 1: FSB Corps Strategies and senior political advisor to George P. 820 00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,440 Speaker 1: Bush I said that to the p Christine Bravado, I said, Bravada, 821 00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,960 Speaker 1: what a great panel. Maxie Burns, Democratic strategist contributor out 822 00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,960 Speaker 1: the Daily Beast, the New York Daily News, and The Independent. 823 00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,319 Speaker 1: It's time now, Ash, we do this thing on the 824 00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,120 Speaker 1: show called What's on your Radar? So here's what you 825 00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,040 Speaker 1: gotta tell me. I need a state that's on your radar, 826 00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,320 Speaker 1: But you gotta you gotta give it to me nuanced, 827 00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,000 Speaker 1: because I want people to say, oh I heard that 828 00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,640 Speaker 1: on CERELLI sound on. You know. I don't want it 829 00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:07,279 Speaker 1: to be you know, Democrats have to have a big 830 00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,560 Speaker 1: night and get out the vote. Okay, yawn, you know 831 00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:11,600 Speaker 1: what I mean. I gotta have it smart. I gotta 832 00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,000 Speaker 1: have it smart. Maxie, what's on your radar? Buddy? So 833 00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna get Asha minutes to think. I'll tell you what. 834 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,520 Speaker 1: First off, you're on my radar, Kevin Cereli, I read 835 00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:24,360 Speaker 1: your political playbook, birthday interview. Thank you. I was just 836 00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,640 Speaker 1: going down the street telling strangers I knew you. Well, 837 00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:29,840 Speaker 1: did you bake me a cake? Max? Because Max is 838 00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,120 Speaker 1: a Max bakes a lot, and uh, he has refused 839 00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,719 Speaker 1: to make me a cake. I have a cake for you. 840 00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:40,520 Speaker 1: Unfortunately I'm quarantined here in New York City. Well, thank you, No, 841 00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:44,080 Speaker 1: I appreciate it. I appreciate it. Yeah, go ahead, what's 842 00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:50,000 Speaker 1: on your radar? Awkward, that's it. I'm looking at North 843 00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:54,440 Speaker 1: Carolina statewise, just to see turnout numbers for cal Cunningham 844 00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:58,200 Speaker 1: and if that spills over into some down ticket wins 845 00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,239 Speaker 1: for Democrats there where they've been making gains. And then 846 00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,600 Speaker 1: next week, remember we have a full Supreme Court carrying 847 00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:08,560 Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act case just one week after election day. 848 00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,640 Speaker 1: So let me talk to you about Cunningham because I 849 00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,319 Speaker 1: can't even get past tomorrow night. So I promise you 850 00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,319 Speaker 1: we'll talk about a c A next week. But let's 851 00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,120 Speaker 1: get there. Let's let's get keV to Thursday. How about that? 852 00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:23,799 Speaker 1: And the country? Okay, more importantly, um, Cunningham, do you 853 00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,720 Speaker 1: think he can flip? Do you think he can defeat 854 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:29,279 Speaker 1: till Us for the Senate? And I think it's it's 855 00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,880 Speaker 1: it's in a pretty good place also because we've seen it. 856 00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,439 Speaker 1: The only scandal that that Cunningham had a personal scandal 857 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,080 Speaker 1: was something that just didn't resonate with people. We've so 858 00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:44,640 Speaker 1: sort of numbed people to the idea of scandal. The 859 00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 1: things that normally would destabilize a candidate just don't seem 860 00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,799 Speaker 1: to have an effect anymore. Okay, Well, here's what I'm 861 00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,480 Speaker 1: gonna say about North Carolina, Nash County. Put that on 862 00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:57,200 Speaker 1: your radar, folks. Nash County. It's in between Raleigh and Greenville. 863 00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,239 Speaker 1: More DEM's registered than ours, but one third of the 864 00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:06,280 Speaker 1: registered votes in Nash County are unaffiliated. President Trump eked 865 00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:10,000 Speaker 1: it out, eked it out by point to percentage points. 866 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:14,560 Speaker 1: Uh literally one fifth of a percentage point in Obama. 867 00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:19,000 Speaker 1: Obama carried it by one percentage point in but in 868 00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:24,040 Speaker 1: O eight oh four two thousand it was heavily, heavily Republican. 869 00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,800 Speaker 1: But Nash County could be the bell Weather County that 870 00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,600 Speaker 1: you're gonna that you're gonna look for their UM. I 871 00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,759 Speaker 1: would also know this issue of ticket splitting that that 872 00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,200 Speaker 1: you sort of just alluded to. Max. There were thirty 873 00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:37,920 Speaker 1: four Senate outcomes back in all of the Senate outcomes, 874 00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:40,400 Speaker 1: All thirty four the Senate outcomes in two thousand and 875 00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:44,040 Speaker 1: sixteen lined up with presidential result in the state, so 876 00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,560 Speaker 1: there were no ticket splittings. So when in state, Hillery 877 00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,480 Speaker 1: one the damn Senator one, and states Trump won the 878 00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:53,799 Speaker 1: our Senator one. So ticket splitting is is really eluded 879 00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:57,440 Speaker 1: modern American politics. But that's brilliant, Max. North Carolina is 880 00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,880 Speaker 1: such a crucial swing state. Ash, what's on your radar? 881 00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:04,640 Speaker 1: M Yeah, I'm gonna bring you three counties and a city. 882 00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,839 Speaker 1: So first county Miami Dade. Right now, Republicans are out 883 00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:12,520 Speaker 1: voting Democrats. By Democrats need a huge day tomorrow or 884 00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,320 Speaker 1: that can spell trouble for them. I'm looking at Delaware 885 00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:19,720 Speaker 1: and Montgomery County in Pennsylvania. If Biden is where I'm from, Delco. 886 00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,799 Speaker 1: Delco is my hometown. Wait you have time, you have time, wait, 887 00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:27,439 Speaker 1: air it out, take me to Delco. Why is that crucial? Yeah? 888 00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,719 Speaker 1: So when you look at Philadelphia and the force surrounding counties, 889 00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:35,640 Speaker 1: you know, Chester, Delco, Montgomery, Um and Bucks. Those counties 890 00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,279 Speaker 1: really determined the state. And so as part of how 891 00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:41,600 Speaker 1: Trump won that in was Hillary d louder for the 892 00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:45,919 Speaker 1: people in the back. That's right. And so Biden, if 893 00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,880 Speaker 1: Biden underperforms Hillary, I believe she had fifty eight in 894 00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,880 Speaker 1: Montgomery and fifty nine in Delaware. If he underperforms outlook 895 00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:56,000 Speaker 1: for a big night in Pennsylvania for Donald Trump. And 896 00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,960 Speaker 1: then the other one is Wayne County, but specifically Detroit 897 00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:03,239 Speaker 1: in Michigan. Uh Detroit and turnout as super super low. 898 00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:06,799 Speaker 1: As you probably know, Hillary Clinton took Detroit with that 899 00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:11,200 Speaker 1: turnout is crucial to Democrats in in Michigan. If that 900 00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,839 Speaker 1: city does not turn out in that particular area, look 901 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,759 Speaker 1: for another big night for Donald Trump. So I'm gonna 902 00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:20,840 Speaker 1: be watching basically four counties Miami Dade, Wayne County, Delko, 903 00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,239 Speaker 1: and Montgomery and and I feel like the whole night 904 00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,480 Speaker 1: hinges on those four counties. I love see I'm biased 905 00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,040 Speaker 1: because I'm from Delko, but I love the fact that 906 00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,080 Speaker 1: I'm always I'm always watching one county ash Welcome to 907 00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:36,480 Speaker 1: the program. I'm always watching one county Delco because that's 908 00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,640 Speaker 1: where I'm from Florida race years ago. UM, let me 909 00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:41,040 Speaker 1: tell you something. I want to do something for the 910 00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,120 Speaker 1: panel UH and for our listeners, which is to walk 911 00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:48,320 Speaker 1: everybody through election night. Seven thirty pm Eastern polls closed 912 00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:52,920 Speaker 1: in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. UM, North Carolina. 913 00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:58,560 Speaker 1: That could be the longest night, so we if this 914 00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:03,520 Speaker 1: is a close electoral map. UH, count North Carolina could 915 00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,320 Speaker 1: keep us up because of what's going on at the 916 00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:10,200 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. And they have nine days until November twelve 917 00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:14,719 Speaker 1: to count ballots that were postmarked by election day, So 918 00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,560 Speaker 1: by five pm Eastern on November twelve is when they 919 00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:21,640 Speaker 1: can count uh the last absentee ballots that were postmarked 920 00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,680 Speaker 1: by election day. So if this thing is incredibly incredibly 921 00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:29,120 Speaker 1: close as it was in which Trump carried it by 922 00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,680 Speaker 1: three point six points, we could be talking a lot 923 00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:34,359 Speaker 1: about the tar Heel State. Maybe we'll go to maybe 924 00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:36,160 Speaker 1: we'll be in the tar Heel State. If if it 925 00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,239 Speaker 1: comes down to that, I would also know that's the 926 00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,880 Speaker 1: most expensive state. Okay, then we get to uh the 927 00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,640 Speaker 1: next hour, the eight o'clock hour, and that's when you're 928 00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:52,680 Speaker 1: gonna see polls cold closing in seventeen states. The notables Pennsylvania, UH, Florida, 929 00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:57,520 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, m mayor UM. New Maryland closes at eight. 930 00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,360 Speaker 1: But I want to focus obviously on floor Sida for 931 00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:05,440 Speaker 1: a second, because at Florida the all early voting and 932 00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:09,640 Speaker 1: previously tabulated mail ballots, which are likely to be relatively 933 00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,960 Speaker 1: stronger for Biden, that could be reported at eight thirty 934 00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,120 Speaker 1: pm easterns. So at eight thirty p m Eastern you 935 00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:19,759 Speaker 1: could see a strong, strong tilts in the Sunshine State 936 00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,520 Speaker 1: for Biden. But that's just because all of the mail 937 00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,359 Speaker 1: in ballots have been already counted, and that will come 938 00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:30,120 Speaker 1: out at around eight thirty. I would also note about Florida. 939 00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:35,440 Speaker 1: In two and fifty thousand service members voted by absentee ballot, 940 00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:39,080 Speaker 1: and of those, UH fifty thousand were sent to Florida, 941 00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:42,239 Speaker 1: about one in five according to all service members, So 942 00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:44,360 Speaker 1: Republicans are gonna want to make sure that those are counted. 943 00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:47,360 Speaker 1: So that's that's another reason this election could come down 944 00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:53,399 Speaker 1: to Florida. UM. Wisconsin is really interesting because we talked 945 00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:56,040 Speaker 1: a lot about Kenosha County on this program, and I'll 946 00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,080 Speaker 1: just say this quick. We might have a Wisconsin result 947 00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:03,200 Speaker 1: three a m. To six am Wednesday morning. Because Governor 948 00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:05,360 Speaker 1: Tony Evers, a Democrat, has said he expects to know 949 00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,480 Speaker 1: the results on election night or by the day after 950 00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:12,280 Speaker 1: at the latest, and the elections director in Milwaukee County, 951 00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,720 Speaker 1: which officials say has the potential to be the last 952 00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:17,760 Speaker 1: latest to report, said the results could take until between 953 00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:20,960 Speaker 1: three am and six am Wednesday, So they might. I mean, 954 00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,360 Speaker 1: there could be a court case, but we could have 955 00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:27,759 Speaker 1: a winner in Wisconsin, uh early Wednesday morning. Thank you Ash, 956 00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,839 Speaker 1: Thank you Ash, Thank you. Max ash Wright, Senior Vice 957 00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:35,560 Speaker 1: President FSP Corps strategies. Would you come back on the program, Ash, Yeah, anytime, 958 00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,040 Speaker 1: and happy birthday to you. Thank you, appreciate Yeah anytime. 959 00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,680 Speaker 1: I love your show because it's so analytical and we 960 00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,439 Speaker 1: can actually talk numbers in both and non just thank you. 961 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:47,720 Speaker 1: That's what we try. Thank you, Max. Thanks to you too. Max. 962 00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,799 Speaker 1: You want me a birthday cake. I'm Kevin Sirelli. You're 963 00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:50,640 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg.