WEBVTT - Political 'Mess' Is Clouding Strategy: Federated's Orlando 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.800 and on Bloomberg dot com. Political risk that is something 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:24.680 that all investors have to face, and it's coming front 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:26.920 burner here as we get close to the election. What 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:32.000 does it mean? What does the UH president's physical condition? 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.720 How does this all factor into the calculus ford investor 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:38.480 trying to gauge the future performance of the stock market. 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:40.839 To get the latest, we welcome Fill Orlando, chief equity 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:43.639 market strategists and ahead of the client portfolio management team 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:47.879 at Federator Hermes. Sixty eight billion in equity under management, 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.800 over six billion firm wide, so Federator Hermes is all 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:54.960 over the markets. Phil, thanks so much for joining us here. Again, 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.520 let's just try to digest what we've learned over the 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:01.920 past seventy two hours about the president in his medical condition, 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.120 what that might mean for I guess just kind of 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.840 market view view for fiscal stimulus. How are you trying 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:12.320 to discount all of this new information into your outlook? Well, 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:16.039 in a word, it's a mess. Um. You try to 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:18.880 process the news that we got a yes early Friday 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:22.320 morning that the President and the First Lady and a 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.840 number of staffers had tested positive. What does this mean? Um? 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.360 Initially you say, well, is he going to be able 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.720 to execute his duties? If not, then we've got to 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:35.080 roll down to you know, the next in the chain 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:42.080 and companion UH Pence after him, Speaker Pelosi after him, uh, 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:46.840 et cetera. Then it's well, okay. If if he's doing okay, uh, 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:51.000 what does that do to his ability to campaign? What 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.559 does it do for these next two presidential debates coming 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:58.560 up on October fifteen and October? Is he going to 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:00.640 be clear to participate? Are they going to have to 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.160 go remote? Are we gonna have to cancel them? So 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:06.840 you've called in a question a number of issues in 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.600 terms of governing. Are we going to be able to 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:15.160 get this phase four fiscal UH stimulus package through the 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:19.880 debate the election? Uh? Vice President Biden has tested negative, 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.560 I believe twice, but you know he's a little out 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.119 in years as well. I guess we've got to keep 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.640 track to him to make sure he stays nice and healthy, 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:33.000 so that there's a cloud of uncertainty over the entire 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:35.960 process with a month ago ahead of the election, So 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:38.680 it's it's, in a word, it's a mess. Well are 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:41.440 you and your manager is then Phil spending more time 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.600 is thinking about what a Biden victory and outright victory 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:48.440 was sort of no you know, court action, what that 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.959 might mean for markets. So we've been focused on that 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.920 for for several months. Um and and the key issue 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.800 is not so much the presidency, uh, but the Senate 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:05.639 because the if you had a blue wave, as it were, 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:10.240 if if the Democrats ran the table, a legislative mandate 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:14.040 would would mean something materially different in terms of the 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.760 change in fiscal policy and then impact on economic growth, 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:21.720 corporate earnings growth, and stock prices as opposed to divided government. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.880 So we've developed a matrix to look at all of 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:30.400 these different combinations and permutations and right now, uh, you know, 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.080 it's a little too early to tell. To that point, 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.360 there are two conflicting signals that of things that we 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.840 watch pretty closely that are pointing in completely different directions. 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.480 On the one hand, you've got the the betting markets, 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:48.160 which in the immediate aftermath of President Trump's illness uh, 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.320 surged in favor of Vice President Biden. I think there's 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:55.080 like a sixty two percent chance that he's gonna win 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:59.360 versus a thirty eight percent chance uh that the president 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.600 is going to win. And and and that's the lowest 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.720 number we've seen for the president a cycle yet. On 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.440 the other signal is the performance of the SMP five 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.760 hundred itself since the beginning of August, and that indicator 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:14.960 right now is up about three and a half percent 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:20.520 uh collectively, and historically when the SNP is positive during 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:24.240 this period, that that typically signals that the incumbent party 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.080 is going to win the election. So you've got two 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:29.560 different signals pointing in completely different directions. Which one do 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:33.039 we respect? How do we plan? So, Phil, do you 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.520 expect given this messiness that you characterize as it relates 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.159 to the president is health and the uh some members 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:43.240 of Congress fiscal stimulus? Are you expecting any? Are you 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:49.760 just saying this is so our expectations for fiscal stimulus? 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.960 And you and I talked about this. We're high in July. Uh, 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:57.120 They're they're very low. Right now that that while the 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:01.480 numbers are narrowing, the Democrats and House have taken their 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:05.440 offered their AFT down or about two point two trillion dollars, 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.240 the Republicans in the Senator up to about one and 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:12.520 a half trillion dollars. But while you can say, okay, well, 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.240 let's split the difference, let's call it, you know, two 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.120 trillion dollars and call it a day, that the two 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.760 sides are very far apart on on three key issues. 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:26.640 I think money uh for the cities and the states uh. 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:31.120 The the idea of liability protection for businesses that have 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:34.720 done the right thing to protect their their clients and 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.080 their employees. And and the idea of this six dollar 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:41.680 a week unemployment bonus extending that out through the end 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:46.480 of January until we get some conceptual movement on some 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.159 or all of those issues, I just don't see as 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:53.040 being anywhere. Yeah, Phil, I suppose it's time to just 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.599 to sit back and relax and wait, right, you can 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:57.440 do that in the market. Does anybody relax in the 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:00.920 market when the positions on All right, Phil, Orlando, thank 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:04.839 you so much for joining Federated Herme's chief equity market 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:08.080 strategistant head of client portfolio management, and I'm sure he's 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.800 getting a lot of calls these days. Sixty eight point 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:13.120 two billion dollars in equity and six hundred four billion 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.360 firm wide pole. Yeah, it's just extraordinary. I mean it 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.520 feels kind of laying out. You have market risk, which 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.599 people are are paid to measure, You've got political risk, 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:24.880 which is we're really peaking here, and then you've got 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.000 the whole pandemic risk here. So there's a lot for investors, 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.839 obviously to try to digest as they try to formulate 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.000 a plan for the near, intermediate, and longer term. I 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:36.760 love where I'm live team says about the treasury market, 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:38.520 because of course we didn't see that move to something before. 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.000 Basis points they talked about a crowded triasury market do 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:44.360 for some social distancing early. There's a lot of short 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:50.279 positions and long bond futures, which, just as many areas 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:52.720 of New York City may end up getting shut down again. 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:57.000 I thought that it was interesting to see some recent 0:06:57.080 --> 0:07:01.040 housing data and some recent studies that show that Manhattan 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:05.200 at least shows prices going up even if inventory is 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.560 coming on the market and there aren't as many sales. 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:10.120 So let's bring in somebody who knows exactly what's going 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.400 on in terms of Manhattan and the five rows. Best 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:16.360 Freedman is CEO of Brown Harris Steven's Best thank you 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.400 so much for joining, and doesn't explain maybe a little clearer. 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:23.920 Apartments in the third quarter in Manhattan sold for higher 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.800 prices than they did pre pandemic. Now not as many 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.640 of them sold, but it's still surprising to me that 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:31.960 that was the case, that they went for higher prices. 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.240 Can you give us the explanation? Yes, I can. I 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.440 think there's a little bit of confusion because in the 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:42.400 third quarter we had some about sixteen closings of a 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.960 very high end project, which adjusted the price up, so 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:50.440 it's not really an accurate representation of the average sales price. 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.240 And then comparing it to the third quarter of we 0:07:54.320 --> 0:08:00.080 had a really uh, not positive third quarter because so 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.720 many people try to close in the second quarter because 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:06.360 of the new mansion tax, so um that had an 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.480 impact as well. And also some of the prices and 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:14.200 closings that you're seeing are partially due to pre pandemic 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:18.040 contracts that were signed. So it's a mixed bag. Although 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.360 I will tell you that the New York City real 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:25.080 estate market has picked up modestly and we're doing much better. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.760 I mean, the second quarter we were closed down pretty much. 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:32.080 So we're having a huge increase and we're very happy 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:36.360 about that. Best where are we in maybe just Manhattan, 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:39.200 where you field the most compleable commenting in terms of 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:44.000 vacancy rates now versus were pre pandemic, and how bad 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.360 do you think it could get? You know, it's it's 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.400 hard to tell. I mean, think about this. There's been 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.320 a lot of media saying, let's just say that, you know, 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.600 it's not a ghost town here. There are people that 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.960 are buying renting here. We're seeing the numbers. UM. But 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.760 we certainly have more supply than we did before. UM 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:05.400 And it's too soon to say whether people are just 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:09.360 temporarily leaving the city or there permanently, So that stuff 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:12.560 is still it's uncertain. UM. But there are plenty of 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.439 rentals UM and the rental market is a bit soft, 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:20.480 UM and so that's opportunity for people. But um, and 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:24.079 there are a lot of condos new developments that UM, 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.080 there's a lot of vacancies there. But that was a 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:29.839 problem before the pandemic, even hit, So we're still wrastling 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.840 with all of those things. UM. But having said that, 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.839 if you look at the third quarter numbers overall, UH, 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.880 it's clear that New York City is awake and busy 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:43.160 and the market is doing pretty well. Considering what price 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.920 point are you seeing the most action best and what 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:50.680 are the if the If it's a skewed picture that 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:53.079 we've been looking at, then what is sort of your 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:57.880 your sense of what the average pandemic discount is? I 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.199 would guess if I had to say, it's hard put 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.800 a blanket over it, because obviously the high end has 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.160 been impacted much more than the lower end. But we're 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.280 seeing most of the business under a million. About fifty 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:13.040 percent of the deals of contracts signed have been about 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:15.320 have been under a million. But and then you're seeing 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:19.440 the next between one and two million, it's about UM 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.840 and then the high end, if you are between two 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.360 and three million, that's about twelve percent of the market. 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:28.720 So if something is priced right, even if it's ten 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:32.680 million dollars, it's selling. But we're very sensitive to over 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.560 pricing and the sellers that are anchored to these pre 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:40.439 pandemic prices and are not realistic their UH their apartment 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:42.960 or their home is just sitting there. So we know 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.320 that people have to be realistic if they do want 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.440 to sell. Talk to us, if if you would best 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:52.760 about the rental um market. What kind of price discounts 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:56.480 are you seeing in the market today. Um, that kind 0:10:56.480 --> 0:11:00.720 of surprised you. Here. You know, you're seeing uh, you know, 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:04.160 for the first time, you're seeing landlords being incredibly flexible, 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:09.480 UM offering too and three months rent for free. Uh. 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:13.560 And I'm seeing a lot of landlords let tenants renegotiate 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.800 even though they have a fully executed lease. Um that 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:18.959 you know, let's say it goes for another year or two. 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:21.800 Tenants are calling landlords and saying, look, you know, it's 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:25.320 a different environment. I signed this before the pandemic. I'd 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.880 like a discount. And I'm seeing as much as ten 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:32.040 to fifteen percent off of leases that were already fully executed. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:35.560 So landlords, UM, don't want to have somebody leave, They 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.160 don't want to have toy, so they're they're negotiating. They're 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:42.040 being much more reasonable throughout best What do you say 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:45.160 to somebody who can carry the cost of a place 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.400 but definitely wants to sell at some point, are they 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.559 better off to keep carrying that cost until the picture 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.280 is more clear as to when, if ever Manhattan comes back. 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.680 If they can or do do you, we advise them, look, 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.000 just just lower the price, get rid of it. Let's 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.120 dy else carry the cost of us. I mean, it 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.080 really depends on their circumstances. If they if they need 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.240 to sell um, they should price it right. And you 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:10.199 know we've had we had a bidding war last week 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.240 um and on something that was four million dollars um. 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:19.679 So if it's priced right, it was just you know, 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:22.400 what's important to a lot of people is they want 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.000 to be close to where they have to go to 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.480 temple or to school, and they want to be able 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:30.080 to walk. You know, right now people are concerned about 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.040 public transportation because they're worried about their health and safety. 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.400 As you know New York City's transportation, subways, buses, all 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.000 of that is so important. But people are now opting 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:40.679 to want to be able to walk to where they 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:43.240 have to go just to be safe. So when if 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.360 an apartment is close to a school, for example, people 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:49.079 are saying, yes, that's perfect because I can walk. So 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.120 that's been taken into account. But if you can hold 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.640 off and you have time, and you can wait. You 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:57.400 could potentially wait a little bit. Hey, best, thank you 0:12:57.480 --> 0:12:59.559 so much once again for joining us. We always appreciate 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.480 your site into the real estate world of New York City. 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:07.199 Best Freedman CEO Brown Harris Stevens giving us the update 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:12.560 on the Manhattan real estate market. Time to get back 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.480 to the President's health and of what we might find 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.880 out exactly, especially after this news that we just learned 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.600 that Kati Mcannerny has also tested positive for the coronavirus. 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:24.520 So let's bring in Jamie Matsil, Senior Fellow at the 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.920 Atlantic Council, former National Security Council official, and founder and 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:33.880 chair of the global movement One Shared World. So Jamie, 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:37.960 talk to us about your reaction to all of this. 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.719 It's spreading like wildfire in the White House. There don't 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:42.640 seem to have been any precautions to try to save 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:45.520 other people, and there still aren't. We just heard today 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.400 that just now that Katie Mcananny, who has apparently been 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.440 briefing reporters masklus over the last couple of days, also 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:56.480 has it. Yeah, we can't be surprised. It's it's total chaos, 0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:02.120 lack of awareness, lack of honesty, lack of transparency, everything 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:06.040 that is characterized the Trump administration throughout the entirety of 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:11.560 it its administration, um is now defining how our country 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:16.280 and the White House responds to this, to this terrible crisis. 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.680 And um, this is why we're in such danger, this 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:25.000 is why our our country is at such unnecessary risk. 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:31.160 And it's just unimaginable that when they had enough information 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:36.200 to start being careful, Um, the President puts his perceived 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.600 narrow interest above the interests of the White Houses, colleagues, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:45.160 his family, and the country. And it's it's really concerning. 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:48.560 And this is the kind of of crisis that could 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.400 have huge, not just national, but global implications. On the 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:57.600 callousness with which this administration is behaving is just breath taken, Jamie, 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:02.200 given your experience on the No Security Council, What is 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.400 the national security implications of what we're experiencing right now 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:11.440 and over the past several days. So our allies count 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:16.000 on the United States to be a sound We play 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:20.440 a foundational role in the world. And there's a reason 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.360 why all of our allies don't need to build million 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.960 person armies or develop their own nuclear weapons. And that's 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.440 because they believe that the United States has their back, 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.600 and we have for for many, many decades. With the 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:39.560 US in chaos, UM, with so many questions being raised 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.760 about the validity of our elections by the President of 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.240 the United States, our allies need to be worried about 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.800 whether we have the ability to back them up, and 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:54.840 our adversaries will recognize that this is a moment of opportunity. 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.800 Who's been seeing that for a while with the behavior 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:03.600 certainly of China and Russia. I'm recognizing that that in 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.760 many ways the world is more of a free for 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:10.800 all now that that the United States, because of the unimaginable, 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:16.120 um poor behavior of the of the Trump administration, US 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.360 is in many ways out of the game in big 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:23.160 ways global. What about the Senates, Jamie, I mean, this 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:26.240 is not just the executive right, It's it's it's other 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:28.480 branches of government that's impacting too, and in fact all 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:30.800 branches of government at this point, because you know, even 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.240 as Mr McConnell says the timeline is going to be 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.160 the same for the school disappointment, it could very well 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:40.800 be that that doesn't actually transpire. So, you know, have 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:45.720 you ever seen anything like this that the government sort 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:51.680 of infects itself from within. You know, we've we've seen 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.240 it in the United States where we had our our 0:16:54.320 --> 0:17:00.280 Civil war. Governments have broken down over history, and way 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:04.000 it happened to the Romans has happened to lots of 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:07.680 governments where there's precious from without and collapse and decay 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:12.840 from u from with him uncertainly a very patriotic American, 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.639 but it's heartbreaking to see the president of the United 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:20.679 States doing to our country what our adversaries have tried 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:25.160 and failed to do to us for many, many decades. 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:29.159 What do you think, Jamie, if we can just kind 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:34.359 of hypothize about a potential for a Biden win in 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.280 this election, how do you think he will approach national 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:40.640 security and our relationship with our allies and others around 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.040 the world. Can we can we go back to kind 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.359 of the way it was before? Yeah, and so and 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.600 and Joe Biden is my full disclosure, he's my former 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:51.480 boss many many years ago when he was on the 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.320 Senate Foreign Foreign Relations Committee. But a Biden foreign policy 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.679 is going to look in many ways more traditional. We 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:06.480 have of our close allies around the world, countries like Japan, Australia, Korea, 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:11.760 European Union, countries and others. And rather than than phraising 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:16.359 our adversaries like Putin and the Russians and attacking our friends, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:19.840 we're going to try to build We the Biden administration, 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:24.600 a Biden administration would try to build a world based 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:29.800 on common goals, building alliances, bringing people and countries together 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.280 to do great things. And that's what America is about. 0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:36.879 That's what we've been about, not about hitting one group 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:39.800 against each other, against each other, as the Trump administration 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:45.359 has done, not undermining science, not knowingly infects, infecting people, 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:50.119 or endangering people just for for political systems. So I 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:52.639 think that many of us have grown accustomed to the 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:56.880 United States playing a responsible role in the world. We 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.760 can still play that role, but we have to do 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.879 things very differently from what's happening now. What is the 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.720 best case scenario from here, Jamie and and I realized 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:12.040 that's a difficult question to answer. So in the short term, 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:16.399 I certainly hope that President Trump has a speed recovery, 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.680 and then I hope that that everybody who's been infected 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:24.439 by the callous behavior of the president in the administration 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.919 they have a speedy recovery. And then I hope that 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.840 they recognize that what they've been doing, undermining the scientists, 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:35.280 encouraging people to not wear wear masks, all of these 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.040 things is the long way to go. Yes, maybe there's 0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:40.600 an opportunity to bring the country together around doing the 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:44.119 right thing. Jamie, thank you so much. That is Jamie Metzel, 0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:48.400 Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, former National security official, 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:55.320 founder and chair of the global movement One Shared World. Today, 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:59.000 you're drum by Max beson Biotech, farmer and healthcare, calmness, war, 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.560 Bloomberg Opinion and as we await comments from the doctors 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:06.320 at Walter Read Medical Center, perhaps about when President Trump 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.160 will be released, and we'll bring that to you. Max, 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:11.640 thanks so much for joining us here. Boy, there's so 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:16.520 much information and perhaps misinformation or just confusion about President 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:19.480 Trump at his time at Walter Read the treatments he 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.960 has received. Um, what do you know as the latest? 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.320 What do we know? So you know, all of this 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:28.960 is with the caveat that you know, I'm not a physician, 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:33.080 and as you said, I'm I'm working from information that 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:38.359 has been um at times quite contradictory and confusing. But 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:41.560 you know, the latest update we got was m was 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:46.000 yesterday the news that he potentially could be discharged as 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:49.199 soon as today. But that news, of course, was was 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:52.000 sort of countered by the fact that that we got 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:55.200 the news that he was on a third UM significant 0:20:55.280 --> 0:21:00.879 medication Deckson episode, a powerful steroid generally given to people 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.920 that that have quite severe COVID as a way to 0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:09.320 tamp down potentially dangerous inflammatory response. Um, you know, the 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.880 use of that medication would tend to in a vacuum 0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:16.720 in other cases, point you towards the notion that you're 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:21.560 dealing with a more significant case or more severe disease. 0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:24.320 But of course, the fact that they've been you know, 0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:28.520 quite aggressive about drug treatment the whole time, giving him 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:32.200 or general experimental and abody, even though they just released 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.840 you know, early stage data last week, moving on to 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:38.520 m desivere and now this it all just makes for 0:21:38.760 --> 0:21:43.359 um a really difficult to parse scenario, especially when you 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:47.520 have new information that that changes day to day about 0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:51.080 what's happened on any given day of the president's treatment. 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:55.080 So um, it's tough to tell, really, And also the 0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:57.639 possibility that that that all the doctors might have decided 0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:00.640 to just frontload everything to throw everything at this at 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.240 the president at the very beginning to try to stop 0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:06.959 it from becoming a bad case. Whether that's the right 0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:09.480 approach or not, I certainly don't know, but that seems 0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:11.959 to be what they're doing. The President has been tweeting 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.560 for the last four hours, you know, all caps tweets 0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:19.080 about various different things. Is it possible that he feels 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:22.800 better because medicine is working right now, But you know, 0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:29.000 discharging him would be potentially very dangerous. You know, it's 0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:33.159 really again difficult to tell um just because you know, 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:37.600 we we know some about how all of these medicines 0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:42.959 were individually, we know very very little about how they 0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:47.520 might affect somebody used altogether or in concert. I'm not 0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.520 aware of a significant amount of data for the use 0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:54.960 of any two of the medicines together rather than all 0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:58.880 three and and then both from you know, General's medicine 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:02.440 because it's new rim desivere because of potential liver and 0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.840 kidney impacts and then decks in episode because it affects 0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:08.919 a variety of different sense uh body systems, and and 0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:11.720 damp into the immune system. All medicines that you would 0:23:11.760 --> 0:23:16.119 expect to have um a significant amount of attention and 0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:18.800 follow up paid on top of the fact that you know, 0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:22.119 the president has a symptomatic case of COVID and is 0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.520 seventy four and overweight. So again, you know it all 0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:29.320 it's a it's a picture that, given the limited facts 0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:34.000 that we know, is sort of difficult to piece together 0:23:34.600 --> 0:23:38.320 with the notion of leaving the hospital today. But you know, 0:23:38.359 --> 0:23:41.800 again you you can there are certain significant medical facilities 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:45.000 at the White House. Um, we don't really know that 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:47.680 much about his conditions. So this is all at the 0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:52.119 end of the day, um, speculation and speculation made necessary 0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:57.280 by you know, poor disclosure from his physicians. Max, give 0:23:57.359 --> 0:23:59.760 us the latest from your reporting on kind of where 0:23:59.760 --> 0:24:02.479 we are in terms of vaccines. Is there any change 0:24:02.480 --> 0:24:05.560 in the timeline? It's I guess the consensus was you 0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:09.080