WEBVTT - This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.644 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:28.684 --> 0:00:31.524 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and I'm made Silver. 0:00:31.764 --> 0:00:33.764 Did we mix that up? You should we go the 0:00:33.764 --> 0:00:36.324 other way? Oh, I don't know what I'm talking about. 0:00:36.764 --> 0:00:40.084 See, okay, perfect start to This is a perfect start 0:00:40.084 --> 0:00:40.764 to the segment. 0:00:40.924 --> 0:00:41.324 I'm Nate. 0:00:41.524 --> 0:00:45.084 Welcome to Las Vegas, and Maria me, Welcome to Las Vegas. 0:00:45.084 --> 0:00:47.724 Beautiful Las Vegas. Is it beautiful? 0:00:47.764 --> 0:00:50.524 Las fig fabulous, fabulous, beautiful. 0:00:50.564 --> 0:00:51.204 It's impressive. 0:00:51.724 --> 0:00:55.684 No, but but but Las Vegas is actually gorgeous For 0:00:55.764 --> 0:00:58.084 people who haven't been here, Just go off Strip, go 0:00:58.164 --> 0:01:01.164 to Red Rock, go to the Spring Mountains, like there 0:01:01.244 --> 0:01:05.084 is some absolutely breathtaking beauty out here. Anyway, So on 0:01:05.124 --> 0:01:08.524 the show today, Nate, during this twenty twenty five World 0:01:08.564 --> 0:01:11.244 Series of Poker, we're going to be all in on poker. 0:01:11.604 --> 0:01:14.084 So you and I have just played our first event. 0:01:14.124 --> 0:01:16.404 We're going to be talking about changes in the World Series, 0:01:16.724 --> 0:01:19.364 your ability to know your opponent, and then we're going 0:01:19.404 --> 0:01:22.844 to have a special guest on whom neither one of 0:01:22.964 --> 0:01:26.284 us has met, and it's a poker newbie, and we'll 0:01:26.284 --> 0:01:27.924 be offering some poker lessons. 0:01:27.964 --> 0:01:34.084 Yeah, I've been here for forty six hours. I've played 0:01:36.084 --> 0:01:39.204 I think twenty two hours of poker in those forty 0:01:39.204 --> 0:01:42.844 six hours I have. You know, you've already had something 0:01:42.844 --> 0:01:45.084 which is increasingly common America day. There was a shooting 0:01:45.124 --> 0:01:47.844 on the Las Vegas Strip the first night I got in, 0:01:47.844 --> 0:01:51.964 which was terrifying to everybody involved. So I feel we're 0:01:51.964 --> 0:01:54.244 a bit or worse very fully immersed in the Las 0:01:54.324 --> 0:01:57.964 Vegas experience already. But yeah, the as Sensible well, yeah, 0:01:58.004 --> 0:02:00.764 the as Sensible origin story of our meeting and the 0:02:00.804 --> 0:02:03.244 show is poker, and so we're going to lean a 0:02:03.284 --> 0:02:05.764 little bit into poker. It was also recently out at 0:02:05.804 --> 0:02:11.284 the Manifest conference in Berkeley, California, downloading with people on 0:02:11.604 --> 0:02:13.684 AI and effective algorism and other things. Maybe we'll talk 0:02:13.724 --> 0:02:15.404 about that next week. One thing I've been looking forward 0:02:15.404 --> 0:02:17.244 to this year is like it's not an election year, 0:02:17.964 --> 0:02:22.404 so I can focus a lot more and I want 0:02:22.404 --> 0:02:23.924 to talk about some changes or we want to talk 0:02:23.924 --> 0:02:27.044 about some changes to how, yeah, how the World Series 0:02:27.044 --> 0:02:29.204 actually played. I think it's a very fundamental change that 0:02:29.244 --> 0:02:33.124 players are downplaying that has profound effects for the strategy. 0:02:33.164 --> 0:02:34.764 So should I explain or do you want to explain it? 0:02:35.204 --> 0:02:37.724 No, go ahead and explain, But first, can we just 0:02:37.764 --> 0:02:40.564 give a congratulations to us. So Nate and I, Well, 0:02:40.644 --> 0:02:42.764 Nate played one event while I still wasn't here. But 0:02:42.884 --> 0:02:45.604 yesterday I played my first event and Nate played his second. 0:02:45.684 --> 0:02:49.364 We both cashed. You know, we had a nice dinner 0:02:49.524 --> 0:02:52.484 and then went back to play. And Nate, you ended 0:02:52.564 --> 0:02:54.004 up busting at the very end of the day, but 0:02:54.084 --> 0:02:56.124 you did cash. You did make the money, which is great. 0:02:56.324 --> 0:02:59.324 We're taping this on Tuesday. I'm about to restart day two. 0:02:59.724 --> 0:03:04.284 I apologize to all our listeners and our viewers. I'm 0:03:04.324 --> 0:03:07.324 going to be caffeinating this entire time because I've gotten 0:03:07.404 --> 0:03:09.764 all of like four hours of sleep. But I have 0:03:09.844 --> 0:03:12.804 really cute elephants on my on my coffee cups. 0:03:13.004 --> 0:03:16.204 I have a sugar free read. So I'm joining you, beautiful. 0:03:16.284 --> 0:03:20.604 Okay, so cheers to the risky business poker caffeination. But yeah, 0:03:20.684 --> 0:03:24.804 this year, so I arrived and my experience registering and 0:03:24.804 --> 0:03:27.524 getting to my tabil was completely different because there's kind 0:03:27.524 --> 0:03:29.724 of this new component of the world series which is 0:03:30.084 --> 0:03:33.004 all online and it actually gives you access to all 0:03:33.044 --> 0:03:34.404 the players. So, Nate, do you want to talk a 0:03:34.444 --> 0:03:38.564 little bit about this and what it actually means for 0:03:39.244 --> 0:03:41.844 you know, how you approach your day one table, which 0:03:41.844 --> 0:03:44.244 has never been possible at the World Series before. I 0:03:44.284 --> 0:03:46.244 just want to say it's always been possible at Poker Stars. 0:03:46.284 --> 0:03:49.164 I am a Poker Stars ambassador, but the Poker Stars 0:03:49.204 --> 0:03:52.284 Live app has been light years ahead. However, at the 0:03:52.284 --> 0:03:54.204 World Series this has just been introduced. 0:03:54.364 --> 0:03:56.804 Yeah, the app is called wslp Plus. You can sign 0:03:56.884 --> 0:04:00.684 up now with bonus code risky business for Twitter. No, No, 0:04:00.764 --> 0:04:01.484 that's not true. 0:04:01.724 --> 0:04:02.524 That would be funny. 0:04:02.844 --> 0:04:04.644 So to have a new app. The word Star's poker 0:04:04.724 --> 0:04:07.324 brand was bought by gg Poker, which is an online 0:04:07.324 --> 0:04:09.764 poker provider. You don't have to care about that detail. Well, 0:04:09.924 --> 0:04:13.324 what's interesting is that it's de anonymized poker in a 0:04:13.364 --> 0:04:15.204 way that I think is kind of radical. Right, So 0:04:15.284 --> 0:04:17.364 you show up at your table, you're on the app, 0:04:17.364 --> 0:04:19.564 by the way, make sure your phone is charged fully. 0:04:19.564 --> 0:04:21.684 It's a big disadvantage to have your phone shut off. 0:04:21.764 --> 0:04:21.844 Right. 0:04:21.924 --> 0:04:24.444 You can play, but you lose info and you know 0:04:24.524 --> 0:04:28.484 the names of almost every player at the table. There's 0:04:28.524 --> 0:04:31.204 a weird loophole where you're kind of allowed to be 0:04:31.284 --> 0:04:33.604 quasi anonymous, which maybe we'll talk about maybe not, which 0:04:33.644 --> 0:04:36.684 I think is like unfair. But yeah, before you show 0:04:36.724 --> 0:04:37.644 up to dates, wasn't there. 0:04:38.004 --> 0:04:39.924 I'm sorry, I just want to interject here with a 0:04:39.924 --> 0:04:42.444 bit of humor. I think one of the first final tables, 0:04:42.444 --> 0:04:44.284 there was some I don't remember what his name was, 0:04:44.284 --> 0:04:46.924 but it was something like Big Balls sixty nine. Yeah, 0:04:47.204 --> 0:04:49.764 made the final table. It wasn't actually that, but like 0:04:49.884 --> 0:04:52.964 it was very very close to that, and everyone was like, hey, 0:04:53.284 --> 0:04:55.604 w sop, what's going on? And he ended up making 0:04:55.644 --> 0:04:57.684 it like to the top three. He almost want to break. 0:04:57.644 --> 0:04:59.964 Like a D four twenty or something. It is like, 0:05:00.004 --> 0:05:00.364 can you. 0:05:00.364 --> 0:05:03.244 Can you imagine, like you know, Big Balls sixty nine 0:05:03.284 --> 0:05:07.764 winning his first World Series of Poker bracelets anyway, please 0:05:07.804 --> 0:05:09.844 contain mostly. 0:05:09.924 --> 0:05:11.964 For eighty or ninety percent of the players, it will 0:05:12.004 --> 0:05:15.004 say Maria Kinakova, and I can google Maria kind of Kova, 0:05:15.124 --> 0:05:19.484 right or look apprehended mob. That's basically the database if 0:05:19.484 --> 0:05:21.844 you're a baseball fan, the Baseball Reference of poker, where 0:05:21.884 --> 0:05:25.484 every cash you've ever had in a live tournament is 0:05:25.484 --> 0:05:30.044 contained there your bio. You can infer age and things, 0:05:30.164 --> 0:05:32.804 I mean can for age in real life. Right, So, 0:05:32.964 --> 0:05:34.964 but like but all of a sudden you start out 0:05:34.964 --> 0:05:38.124 with a lot of information about people. And I find 0:05:38.164 --> 0:05:43.124 this quite radical, Like I said, because from the start, 0:05:43.364 --> 0:05:46.204 I'll speak for myself. Right from the start, I'm thinking 0:05:46.284 --> 0:05:50.044 in terms of what are the flaws likely to be 0:05:50.684 --> 0:05:53.884 in this person's game, as opposed to starting out from 0:05:54.044 --> 0:05:57.604 a default where you're like, Okay, I'm playing some game theory, 0:05:57.644 --> 0:06:01.444 optimal style relative to like the population, You're like, okay, 0:06:02.124 --> 0:06:03.004 I know this type. 0:06:03.084 --> 0:06:03.244 You know. 0:06:03.364 --> 0:06:08.004 Let's take some prototypes, for example, Right, one prototype is 0:06:08.004 --> 0:06:11.444 a guy most Pooka players in the World Series are men, right, 0:06:11.804 --> 0:06:14.604 who had a big cash in a World Series event 0:06:15.084 --> 0:06:18.324 a few years ago. You look at his results and 0:06:18.364 --> 0:06:20.844 they've been mediocre since then, and that might give you 0:06:20.884 --> 0:06:24.324 certain prototypes. Right. You know, here's a guy who might 0:06:24.364 --> 0:06:27.004 be a little bit tilty potentially, at the same time, 0:06:27.044 --> 0:06:29.244 if you get deep in the tournament, it's not his 0:06:29.284 --> 0:06:33.084 first rodeo. That might matter to some degree. Right, you know. 0:06:33.124 --> 0:06:36.324 There are some older players who can play a little 0:06:36.324 --> 0:06:38.924 bit and just kind of look like generic old guys. Right. 0:06:39.324 --> 0:06:41.524 If you just played against them, you might fold too 0:06:41.604 --> 0:06:45.124 much in the first couple of orbits. Typically, older players 0:06:45.164 --> 0:06:47.764 are less inclined to bluff by stereotype. At least Trapp. 0:06:47.764 --> 0:06:49.684 You're like, Oh, this guy is like four million dollars 0:06:49.724 --> 0:06:53.564 in lifetime tournament winnings and he's still cashing regularly and 0:06:53.644 --> 0:06:57.164 probably pretty good in things like that. And so you're 0:06:57.164 --> 0:07:00.084 relying in some sense less on crude stereotypes and more 0:07:00.204 --> 0:07:05.124 on solid information. It's also an experience where I mean, 0:07:05.164 --> 0:07:08.524 both Marie, you and I are public figures by like 0:07:08.564 --> 0:07:14.244 the slander libel definition, right, it removes some ambiguity and 0:07:14.444 --> 0:07:17.724 awkwardness about like, oh, do you know who I am? 0:07:17.884 --> 0:07:19.684 Or do I know who you are? Right? As a 0:07:19.724 --> 0:07:22.764 person who's like slightly socially awkward, I'm like, oh, I 0:07:22.764 --> 0:07:26.404 think that's so. For example, the poker player Lexi Gavin, 0:07:26.604 --> 0:07:29.404 who is a terrific player, but I don't think i've 0:07:29.404 --> 0:07:33.044 met in person before, right, friends and friends, She's like, oh, 0:07:33.084 --> 0:07:34.844 your Nate. I'm like, oh you're Lexi, great to meet you. Right, 0:07:35.244 --> 0:07:36.844 It's nice to have that instead of being like are 0:07:36.884 --> 0:07:39.004 you when you're in the middle of a poker. 0:07:38.764 --> 0:07:43.924 Hen, yeah, So I think that, you know, there's a 0:07:44.004 --> 0:07:47.804 really interesting shift that happens when you actually know who 0:07:47.884 --> 0:07:52.084 somebody is so normally like and this is what you're 0:07:52.164 --> 0:07:55.724 I think implying when you're talking about kind of the 0:07:55.724 --> 0:08:00.364 the ability to adjust to who's at the table. So 0:08:00.444 --> 0:08:02.324 normally when you sit at the table, And this is 0:08:02.364 --> 0:08:06.404 always my advice when you know, when people ask me like, oh, 0:08:06.444 --> 0:08:08.764 you know, how do you play? Like, well, the beautiful 0:08:08.804 --> 0:08:11.684 thing about like actually studying and knowing your GTO or 0:08:11.724 --> 0:08:13.804 game theory optimal way of playing is that you have 0:08:13.844 --> 0:08:16.044 a baseline, right, you have kind of this baseline that 0:08:16.084 --> 0:08:19.564 you play like your your solid poker game. And I 0:08:19.604 --> 0:08:22.764 always say, I always caution people like, don't deviate based 0:08:22.804 --> 0:08:25.644 on too little information because it's too easy. You know, 0:08:25.684 --> 0:08:28.524 if someone's raising, like the first ten hands at the table, 0:08:28.524 --> 0:08:30.564 you're like, oh my god, this person's a maniac. Well 0:08:30.724 --> 0:08:33.044 like maybe, but maybe they've just been getting you know, 0:08:33.204 --> 0:08:36.124 really good card distribution that happens, or if someone has folded, 0:08:36.484 --> 0:08:38.044 they might not be a knit like there might be 0:08:38.124 --> 0:08:40.524 other things going on. And so I always say, like, 0:08:40.564 --> 0:08:44.004 don't over adjust immediately and make sure that you're adjusting 0:08:44.044 --> 0:08:46.804 based on solid data because it's so easy. So night 0:08:46.924 --> 0:08:50.124 you actually bring up one of the you know, one 0:08:50.124 --> 0:08:53.004 of those there are poker stereotypes, and one of them 0:08:53.124 --> 0:08:55.084 is that you know, the the nitty old guy who 0:08:55.164 --> 0:08:58.244 never who never bluffs. And then but those guys, by 0:08:58.244 --> 0:08:59.884 the way, if you're ever at a table with them, 0:08:59.884 --> 0:09:01.964 they're then capable of once they'd been card dead and 0:09:01.964 --> 0:09:04.644 they get frustrated, they will go crazy with eight three offsuit. 0:09:04.964 --> 0:09:07.084 That's I just picked a random hand. That's not a 0:09:07.084 --> 0:09:09.084 good poker hand. But like they're also capable of doing 0:09:09.164 --> 0:09:11.644 that all of a sudden, like they'll blow up anyway. 0:09:11.724 --> 0:09:13.484 So one of the stereotypes is like that, there's the 0:09:13.684 --> 0:09:16.044 older guy. Then you also have like I've made this 0:09:16.084 --> 0:09:18.964 mistake when you have like the really jacked dudes who 0:09:19.004 --> 0:09:22.044 look like they're on steroids, you know, the big necks, tattoos. 0:09:22.044 --> 0:09:23.804 I'm like, well, you're going to be super aggressive, right, 0:09:24.164 --> 0:09:27.204 That's not always the case, Like sometimes they're actually really 0:09:27.244 --> 0:09:30.884 tight players like you. Normally, what our brain does from 0:09:30.884 --> 0:09:34.044 the psychology standpoint, is it stereotypes based on how people look. 0:09:34.364 --> 0:09:37.564 Like that's the first thing, that's the first available information 0:09:37.644 --> 0:09:39.204 that we have. People do it to me all the 0:09:39.204 --> 0:09:41.564 time because I'm a female, right, Like that's the most 0:09:41.604 --> 0:09:44.284 striking thing about me, because Nate, as you say, most 0:09:44.284 --> 0:09:46.964 players are male at the World Series in any given event, 0:09:47.284 --> 0:09:51.244 it's under ten percent in most events, under five in 0:09:51.284 --> 0:09:54.684 some events. You know, it's tiny percentages of females. So 0:09:55.644 --> 0:09:57.644 you know that's something that really stands out about me. 0:09:58.044 --> 0:10:01.804 What this does is it actually allows you to use 0:10:02.004 --> 0:10:05.164 real data and real information as opposed to cognitive biases 0:10:05.204 --> 0:10:08.484 and cognitive shortcuts, some of which can be meaningful, but 0:10:08.564 --> 0:10:10.924 most of which are just noise, and yet our brain 0:10:10.964 --> 0:10:12.764 doesn't process them as noise. We're like, oh, you know, 0:10:12.764 --> 0:10:15.004 I've met this kind of person all the time. Yeah, 0:10:15.004 --> 0:10:17.044 but you haven't met this person, right, and they might 0:10:17.084 --> 0:10:19.924 just remind you of someone incorrectly. And so when you 0:10:20.084 --> 0:10:22.644 have the name, if you're not lazy, and by the way, 0:10:22.684 --> 0:10:26.684 a lot of people are like, oh yeah, if you're 0:10:26.724 --> 0:10:29.084 not lazy, and you shouldn't be lazy. If you're listening 0:10:29.124 --> 0:10:32.324 to this, well, actually, excuse me. If you're playing at 0:10:32.364 --> 0:10:35.204 my table, please go ahead and keep being lazy. If 0:10:35.204 --> 0:10:38.004 you're not at my table, don't be lazy. Like take 0:10:38.044 --> 0:10:41.644 the five minutes that it takes to look up these people, 0:10:42.484 --> 0:10:47.204 because their lifetime earnings matter how they're doing recently. So 0:10:47.284 --> 0:10:49.844 if you understand the psychology of this, you know, like, oh, 0:10:49.884 --> 0:10:52.284 did this person just have a huge score, right, Like 0:10:52.324 --> 0:10:54.604 they're going to be playing very very differently from someone 0:10:54.644 --> 0:10:56.244 who's made a lot of money, but their last big 0:10:56.284 --> 0:10:59.524 score was ten years ago. Right, How has this person 0:10:59.564 --> 0:11:02.404 been playing this world series? Have they cashed every event 0:11:02.484 --> 0:11:04.684 or have they had zero cashes? That, by the way's 0:11:04.684 --> 0:11:06.924 information you can see in the app. So there's so 0:11:07.044 --> 0:11:10.724 much valuable information that is actual data. And then Nate, 0:11:10.884 --> 0:11:13.484 as you were talking, then you can start adjusting, right, 0:11:13.524 --> 0:11:15.924 because I think that the World Series of Poker is 0:11:15.964 --> 0:11:19.884 actually somewhere where exploited of poker is much more meaningful 0:11:20.044 --> 0:11:23.884 than just like being absolutely game theory optimal. And what 0:11:23.924 --> 0:11:26.804 that means is that you want to start adjusting your strategy. 0:11:27.044 --> 0:11:29.444 This is such good advice, by the way, for just 0:11:29.524 --> 0:11:31.924 life in general, where you should have a baseline way 0:11:31.964 --> 0:11:35.484 of behaving and acting and negotiating and making decisions, but 0:11:35.524 --> 0:11:39.084 then when you get into situations where like you're at 0:11:39.124 --> 0:11:41.564 a table of fish, you're going to adjust. Yeah. 0:11:41.564 --> 0:11:44.524 Look, I actually kind of have become more critical of 0:11:44.644 --> 0:11:48.044 like a lot of poker content on the web, right, 0:11:48.124 --> 0:11:50.484 especially the more expensive content that you pay more for. 0:11:50.724 --> 0:11:53.684 And I'm friends with some of the content creators. It's 0:11:53.724 --> 0:11:58.164 geared toward this environment where it's elite players versus elite players. 0:11:58.204 --> 0:12:02.204 It's very driven by solvers and game theory, and I 0:12:02.404 --> 0:12:06.524 just don't think that's where you make the money in poker. 0:12:06.564 --> 0:12:10.684 For ninety nine nine percent of the poker playing population, right, 0:12:10.884 --> 0:12:15.444 I have played more live cash games in the past 0:12:15.444 --> 0:12:17.404 two years, probably spent as much time doing that as 0:12:17.404 --> 0:12:20.524 tournaments ranging from low stakes to prett high stakes. And 0:12:20.564 --> 0:12:23.164 in cash games, the game doesn't happen if you're in 0:12:23.284 --> 0:12:26.844 some gto optimal world, because no one would play just 0:12:26.924 --> 0:12:31.204 to pass chips around and give the casino k or 0:12:31.204 --> 0:12:33.524 the home game rank or whatever else. So from the 0:12:33.564 --> 0:12:36.084 start you're in like an exploitive environment where you're looking 0:12:36.084 --> 0:12:38.644 for people's backstories, you're looking for fiscal read, you're looking 0:12:38.644 --> 0:12:42.044 for game flow, meaning what's happened recently. People can really 0:12:42.084 --> 0:12:46.364 overweight right, what happened in the last fifteen minutes, right, 0:12:46.444 --> 0:12:48.644 whereas like they were like, oh, well that hasn't raised 0:12:48.644 --> 0:12:52.124 in an hour, he's been well behaved, you know. And 0:12:52.284 --> 0:12:54.364 I also think kind of as a person who's now 0:12:54.404 --> 0:12:56.564 forty seven years old, like I think my comparative strengths 0:12:56.604 --> 0:13:00.844 are actually in soft skills in poker, you might think that, 0:13:00.924 --> 0:13:04.124 like Nate's a math guy, right, well, all these people 0:13:04.164 --> 0:13:06.524 are math nerds, or not all of them, but many 0:13:06.564 --> 0:13:10.164 of them. Right. You know, I think that I, in 0:13:10.204 --> 0:13:13.484 a poker context like read people pretty well. I think 0:13:13.524 --> 0:13:15.484 I'm pretty good at like kind of like how much 0:13:15.484 --> 0:13:20.004 should you update? Okay, does a Brazilian play better than 0:13:20.084 --> 0:13:22.564 a guy from Boston or a guy from Israel or 0:13:22.604 --> 0:13:26.284 a guy from Japan or whatever else? Right? The stereotype's 0:13:26.284 --> 0:13:28.924 not worth nothing, Let's be honest, right, if you're trying 0:13:28.924 --> 0:13:31.044 to play poker, you can't. You have to like take 0:13:31.084 --> 0:13:34.124 any information you can, but it's worth not very much. 0:13:34.124 --> 0:13:36.044 And how much are you adjusting to that? How much 0:13:36.044 --> 0:13:37.244 are you type casting people? 0:13:38.204 --> 0:13:40.844 Yeah, it's so funny Nate yesterday, you know when you 0:13:40.884 --> 0:13:44.564 say that people, So the recency bias is a really 0:13:44.604 --> 0:13:48.004 strong bias in psychology where people overweight recent information, right, 0:13:48.204 --> 0:13:52.444 what just happened? And in poker that happens all the time, 0:13:52.484 --> 0:13:56.044 where people just really overweight like the last ten minutes, 0:13:56.044 --> 0:13:58.924 the last half hour, the last hour, and they'll think 0:13:58.924 --> 0:14:01.284 that you fall into a bucket. And it was very 0:14:01.324 --> 0:14:03.564 funny because there was this one player at my table 0:14:04.004 --> 0:14:07.324 that you know, I got into kind of several confrontations 0:14:07.364 --> 0:14:10.444 with and got the better of him, and those confrontations 0:14:10.444 --> 0:14:13.444 took some of his chips, and then you know, I 0:14:13.644 --> 0:14:16.924 was kind of I was well behaved for the most part. 0:14:17.004 --> 0:14:19.244 It's not like I was going crazy. And then like 0:14:19.484 --> 0:14:22.404 three orbits later, like I raise and he is in 0:14:22.444 --> 0:14:24.844 the small blind and he kind of looks around because 0:14:24.844 --> 0:14:27.724 he's getting a massage, so he's not necessarily like paying 0:14:27.764 --> 0:14:30.364 attention to everything, and he's like, oh, there's a raise. 0:14:30.404 --> 0:14:32.724 He's like, it's Maria again. I was like, I haven't 0:14:32.804 --> 0:14:35.644 raised for three orbits, Like literally, this is the first 0:14:35.644 --> 0:14:39.404 hand I've played in like three orbits means like three 0:14:39.524 --> 0:14:41.924 rounds of blinds, like I've just been completely but in 0:14:42.004 --> 0:14:45.124 his mind, I'm a maniac right like, and it's Maria again, 0:14:45.404 --> 0:14:49.124 and he just like his mind just didn't even process 0:14:49.244 --> 0:14:52.524 that I actually haven't been raising that many hands. And 0:14:52.724 --> 0:14:56.324 because he's taking this kind of recent information against himself 0:14:56.644 --> 0:14:59.244 and just skewing completely the data set that he has, 0:14:59.484 --> 0:15:03.244 which prompts people to make big mistakes. So this is 0:15:03.284 --> 0:15:05.684 something that I mean, it happens to the best of us, 0:15:05.684 --> 0:15:07.964 and it's very like I actually always have to remind 0:15:07.964 --> 0:15:10.724 myself not to do that, because it's easy, especially when 0:15:10.724 --> 0:15:13.484 it's against you, to start taking it personally. Right, if 0:15:13.524 --> 0:15:16.764 someone has only three bet three times, three bet means 0:15:16.924 --> 0:15:19.604 raising kind of your your bet. So if someone raises 0:15:19.604 --> 0:15:21.644 and someone else re raises, that's called a three bet, 0:15:22.084 --> 0:15:23.964 and that's kind of an aggressive It's a good thing 0:15:24.004 --> 0:15:25.924 to do. But say there's a player who's only done 0:15:25.924 --> 0:15:27.604 it three times in an hour, but every single one 0:15:27.604 --> 0:15:28.844 of those times has been against you. 0:15:29.484 --> 0:15:33.924 It's it's tricky because players moods change a lot. Right, 0:15:34.364 --> 0:15:36.204 Some people play very different when they're winning them, when 0:15:36.204 --> 0:15:37.884 they're losing, on when they have a big stack, where 0:15:37.884 --> 0:15:40.604 with a small stack. Right, some people are playing attentively. 0:15:40.804 --> 0:15:43.084 And then you know why I think people do they play. 0:15:43.204 --> 0:15:45.924 Other tournaments are online tournaments that you can play while 0:15:45.964 --> 0:15:48.124 you're playing, which I think is stupid for various reasons. Right, 0:15:48.124 --> 0:15:50.524 But like all of a sudden, someone's playing online. 0:15:50.764 --> 0:15:53.484 I have to I'm going to have to make a confession, Nate. 0:15:53.524 --> 0:15:56.764 I sometimes do that. I sometimes engage in that stupid behavior. 0:15:57.604 --> 0:15:59.364 Again, to me, I felt like I've had like a 0:15:59.444 --> 0:16:02.244 trance because like I was so distracted by the election 0:16:02.324 --> 0:16:05.804 at the last World Series, right that, Like, Okay, I 0:16:05.804 --> 0:16:11.484 feel like I'm in taking like fifty percent more information, right, 0:16:11.484 --> 0:16:13.524 and it's just a totally different game you're doing it. Also, 0:16:13.524 --> 0:16:16.244 I'm fresh off off the boat, so to speak. Right, 0:16:16.444 --> 0:16:18.524 I'm sure by two weeks from now, I'll be grizzled 0:16:18.844 --> 0:16:20.564 and the beer will be longer and things like that. 0:16:20.644 --> 0:16:23.324 But like, I really think that, like there is a 0:16:23.484 --> 0:16:27.644 reason that there are certain players who crush live tournaments 0:16:27.644 --> 0:16:30.484 and live cash game, which is there's so much fucking information, right, Like, 0:16:30.524 --> 0:16:34.084 you know, yes, there is. I know I'm becoming kind 0:16:34.084 --> 0:16:37.324 of like an anti gto guy, I think. 0:16:37.524 --> 0:16:37.644 So. 0:16:37.684 --> 0:16:40.324 I think that the moral of the story when it 0:16:40.364 --> 0:16:43.724 comes to kind of this new capability on the WSOP 0:16:43.844 --> 0:16:47.244 app is it's giving you real actionable data with which 0:16:47.284 --> 0:16:51.284 to make decisions and help make your decisions more tailored 0:16:51.404 --> 0:16:55.084 to this specific environment, which is really important, right, Like 0:16:55.164 --> 0:16:58.084 there's a way of quote unquote making good decisions in 0:16:58.364 --> 0:17:00.884 a vacuum, but you're never making decisions in a vacuum. 0:17:00.884 --> 0:17:02.284 And one of the things I always say is you're 0:17:02.324 --> 0:17:04.564 not making decisions in a vacuum. So how do you 0:17:04.644 --> 0:17:07.684 use data to accurately evaluate the situation in which you 0:17:07.684 --> 0:17:10.244 find yourself and this is such a great tool for 0:17:10.284 --> 0:17:12.924 doing that, so don't be lazy, actually use it and 0:17:12.964 --> 0:17:14.204 then adjust according to. 0:17:14.364 --> 0:17:17.044 It really makes it clear you are going to play 0:17:17.084 --> 0:17:19.324 better if you do more work at the table. It's 0:17:19.404 --> 0:17:21.324 less fun when you get there, you get switched tables, 0:17:21.484 --> 0:17:24.404 you're looking people up right, It's definitely more work, but 0:17:24.564 --> 0:17:29.604 like I think, it's a huge advantage or someone who 0:17:29.644 --> 0:17:33.044 is good at working with incomplete information and willing to 0:17:33.124 --> 0:17:37.004 treat poker seriously to try to maximize their expected value. 0:17:37.244 --> 0:17:40.724 Yes, and with that, let's take a quick break and 0:17:40.764 --> 0:17:43.804 then we will introduce our guest for today who's a 0:17:43.884 --> 0:17:46.764 newbie poker player, and we'll be giving him some tips 0:17:46.764 --> 0:18:03.644 for the World Series of Poker. We actually had a 0:18:03.684 --> 0:18:07.364 call out if you remember listeners a few weeks ago, 0:18:07.884 --> 0:18:10.604 where we were looking for an amateur poker player who 0:18:10.604 --> 0:18:13.324 was coming to the World Series and wanted some pointers 0:18:13.324 --> 0:18:15.564 from me and Nate. And as we told you, it 0:18:15.604 --> 0:18:18.284 was the plus ev move to write in and so 0:18:18.444 --> 0:18:21.764 you wanted to do this and some people did. And 0:18:21.844 --> 0:18:26.204 today we have a person who you know, we have 0:18:26.364 --> 0:18:29.684 chosen or our producers have chosen to get some coaching 0:18:29.724 --> 0:18:32.804 advice for this World Series of Poker, which is really exciting. 0:18:32.924 --> 0:18:36.604 His name is Tim Sunstock. So he's already spent one 0:18:36.644 --> 0:18:39.724 weekend at the WSP this year and he'll be returning 0:18:39.804 --> 0:18:42.764 in a couple of weeks. So Nate, let's see if 0:18:42.804 --> 0:18:45.484 we can help Tim improve on his performance. 0:18:46.044 --> 0:18:48.124 Welcome Tim, Thanks for having me. It's cool with me. 0:18:48.204 --> 0:18:50.404 You guys, Tim, where are you from? You want to 0:18:50.404 --> 0:18:52.084 give us a little bit of about your background in 0:18:52.204 --> 0:18:53.324 poker life, et cetera. 0:18:53.764 --> 0:18:55.764 Yeah, so I grew up in Southey, California. 0:18:56.124 --> 0:18:58.444 I kind of probably came into the poker boom during 0:18:58.444 --> 0:19:01.884 the two thousand and three Chris morning Maker thing. I 0:19:01.924 --> 0:19:03.244 was playing a little bit as a kid, you know, 0:19:03.324 --> 0:19:05.324 but that was kind of like the spark. There's a 0:19:05.364 --> 0:19:08.484 lot of Indian casinos around here, so we're able to 0:19:08.524 --> 0:19:11.604 go play when we're eighteen. And I did alright, because 0:19:11.604 --> 0:19:14.044 I was a tight player when I was younger against 0:19:14.084 --> 0:19:16.324 just a whole bunch of crazy geles. So I did alright. 0:19:16.524 --> 0:19:18.164 I thought I was probably a lot better than I was, 0:19:18.804 --> 0:19:21.484 but I you know, I played, We played the house 0:19:21.484 --> 0:19:23.364 games and things over time. The only tournament I ever 0:19:23.364 --> 0:19:27.044 really played there was a WSOP event was twenty twelve, 0:19:27.204 --> 0:19:29.044 I was out in Vegas. It was around fourth of 0:19:29.084 --> 0:19:30.684 July and I played a daily Deep Stack one of 0:19:30.724 --> 0:19:32.404 those little, you know, kind of. 0:19:32.404 --> 0:19:35.324 Catch all kind of tournaments, and I went pretty deep. 0:19:35.324 --> 0:19:37.124 I actually had a pretty bad cour to get out 0:19:37.164 --> 0:19:39.284 of the tournament, but I finished like in fiftieth and 0:19:39.324 --> 0:19:41.284 I was like, maybe maybe I'm better than I think. 0:19:41.284 --> 0:19:44.724 Maybe I could do so. But I never really played 0:19:44.804 --> 0:19:48.204 much after hardly. I just here and there. But I've 0:19:48.444 --> 0:19:49.044 I feel like my. 0:19:49.044 --> 0:19:51.244 Time now, I have more time, and I'm like, I 0:19:51.284 --> 0:19:54.084 kind of wanted to go and I'm okay in cash games. 0:19:54.124 --> 0:19:55.884 That's the problem. I do well in cash games. 0:19:55.884 --> 0:19:57.164 I think it's part of the nature of like the 0:19:57.164 --> 0:19:59.244