Speaker 1: Good Sunday morning, everybody.
Speaker 2: How are you Welcome into a new episode of the
Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perelt. You guys can
Speaker 2: follow me across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt,
Speaker 2: and welcome to a baseball Sunday.
Speaker 1: We got to bet baseball today.
Speaker 2: I don't want to be at baseball today, but since
Speaker 2: yesterday went pretty well, two and one, Otani got one single,
Speaker 2: not two, so we didn't get there for the Otani prop.
Speaker 2: But Labor Torres gets us there, Matt Olsen gets us there,
Speaker 2: so it's a one unit day basically for us on
Speaker 2: a Saturday.
Speaker 1: It's a winning day.
Speaker 2: So we'll take it and we'll do it again with
Speaker 2: the prop bets off the prop bet cheat geet coming
Speaker 2: up here for today. Now I've got three prop bets.
Speaker 2: I've got one play that I want to make here
Speaker 2: for today on a Sunday. It's in the wake of
Speaker 2: the trade for Trek Schouble going from the Tigers to
Speaker 2: the Dodgers. That is going to reverberate through Major League Baseball.
Speaker 2: It is going to be an interesting look at how
Speaker 2: teams respond to the two time defending champions trading for
Speaker 2: the two time defending American leaguees a Young Award winner.
Speaker 2: Even though he has missed time due to an elbow issue,
Speaker 2: the guy is still dominant and the pitching rotation for
Speaker 2: the Dodgers even without Otani if he doesn't pitch anymore
Speaker 2: the rest of the year, which is possible, but he
Speaker 2: could come back to unbelievable. I mean, they're getting Blake
Speaker 2: snellback at some point. This is just if you are
Speaker 2: a conspiracy theorist, if you are a tin hat expert,
Speaker 2: if you're somebody who wants to talk about collusion, you
Speaker 2: would say that the owners did this on purpose, in
Speaker 2: order to force a lockout and to force the CBA
Speaker 2: to expire and be redrawn with a salary cap to
Speaker 2: prevent the Dodgers from doing what the Dodgers have been doing,
Speaker 2: which is every time someone's available, they go and get
Speaker 2: them because they have the farm system and they have
Speaker 2: the money to be able to extend the player. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's a couple different ways looking at that. You could say, well,
Speaker 2: the Dodgers are doing it better than anybody else. The
Speaker 2: Mets are spending tons of money and they can't get
Speaker 2: out of their own way. The Yankees, the Red Sox,
Speaker 2: the Cubs. I mean, major League Baseball since two thousand
Speaker 2: has had sixteen different champions under the current system. So
Speaker 2: the players have been saying, look, the system works. The
Speaker 2: Dodgers just are on a historical run right now with
Speaker 2: the way that they are dominating baseball. Be better go
Speaker 2: beat them. I mean, it's you can argue both sides.
Speaker 2: So how does that impact baseball today? I think it
Speaker 2: actually makes it a really big day in baseball. I
Speaker 2: think it really How do teams deal with tomorrow's trade deadline?
Speaker 2: How does a team like the Brewers or spot Because
Speaker 2: I bet the Brewers expecting Schooble. I tried to bet it,
Speaker 2: with school bul being an option for the Brewers, he was.
Speaker 2: They didn't get him. I don't know why. They have
Speaker 2: the best pharm system in baseball. Why not go and
Speaker 2: make and beat that offer that the Dodgers gave up
Speaker 2: to get Schooble. Fine, they didn't, but today you've got
Speaker 2: Miserovski on the mound. How does that impact things? So
Speaker 2: we'll get into all that a bit in a second.
Speaker 2: But it's not a traditional Sunday, let's call it that. Okay,
Speaker 2: it's a before the All Star breaks Sunday. This is
Speaker 2: a more focused baseball This is not like a lazy
Speaker 2: dog days of summer type of Sunday. This is the
Speaker 2: day before the trade deadline. I think everybody's going to
Speaker 2: be on their p's and ques coming up here for today.
Speaker 2: So with that stated, it's the last day of the month.
Speaker 2: That means you, guys, if you want to get this,
Speaker 2: you have to be a subscriber today and you have
Speaker 2: to leave a comment on this video in order to
Speaker 2: be in the contest to win a fifty dollars store
Speaker 2: credit to the Betting Pro Store or plus a year
Speaker 2: of Betting Pros premium. That subscription will get you the
Speaker 2: propbt cheat sheet which we use today, and I'm gonna
Speaker 2: show you here in a second what we're doing. So
Speaker 2: fifty dollars store credit, be a subscriber to this YouTube
Speaker 2: channel and leave a comment to be entered into the
Speaker 2: contest to win a Betting Pros year subscription plus a
Speaker 2: fifty dollars store credit to Bettingpros dot com slash shop.
Speaker 2: It's Sunday. I had some extra time this morning, so
Speaker 2: we did this with the live show this week to
Speaker 2: show you the home run tool. I'm gonna show you
Speaker 2: the betting pros PROPBT cheat sheet. If you haven't seen
Speaker 2: this and haven't seen the five star play, you can
Speaker 2: take a look at this. But I'm gonna show you
Speaker 2: how I found three props for today. I used screenshots
Speaker 2: on two of them, and I used AI on a
Speaker 2: third one. You'll understand when you see it. As to
Speaker 2: what we're going to do, let's start here with Sadan
Speaker 2: Rafaela for the Boston Red Sox. Okay, so let's start
Speaker 2: with the top. Okay, the consensus low is one base. Okay,
Speaker 2: that's the consensus line one and a half or one,
Speaker 2: depending on where you are. Most books are going to
Speaker 2: put it at one and a half. Okay, some books
Speaker 2: and the prediction markets might give you the one. Most
Speaker 2: books are going to give you one and a half.
Speaker 2: The projection is one point nine. It is a fifty
Speaker 2: five percent cover probability and a five star play. This
Speaker 2: has gone over fifty one to forty six times, fifty
Speaker 2: one times over forty six times to the under I
Speaker 2: like to look at a player who is hot. Okay, Yes,
Speaker 2: Emmett Sheehan is pitching for the Dodgers. Yes, the Red
Speaker 2: Sox have taken the first two games of this series.
Speaker 2: You know, you could say the Dodgers really want to
Speaker 2: win this they want to get swept at home by
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. But the Red Sox on the road
Speaker 2: have been stupid hot. In A big reason why is
Speaker 2: Saydan Rafaela. Look at this number as to what this
Speaker 2: guy has been doing. Eight bases yesterday, six bases the
Speaker 2: day before that, three and three against the A's. He
Speaker 2: has gone over this number of one and a half
Speaker 2: in four straight games, in five of the last six
Speaker 2: games for Saydan Rafaela, he's been nuclear hot for the
Speaker 2: Boston Red Sox. So when I see this on my
Speaker 2: prop bet cheat sheet, the five star play the projection
Speaker 2: of almost a full base over five of the last
Speaker 2: six games, he's gone over. Yes, the pitching matchup matters,
Speaker 2: but look, teams are gonna hit, right, I mean, I mean,
Speaker 2: teams are gonna get guys up. If he gets a double,
Speaker 2: he's over one and a half bases and we're good. Okay,
Speaker 2: he hits a home run, we're good. Right, So it
Speaker 2: gets two singles, we're good, right. A Tani got one
Speaker 2: Yesterday's why we missed. Okay, a Tony had a double,
Speaker 2: we would have gotten there, so that's the bet, right.
Speaker 2: But when a player is this hot, who hit two
Speaker 2: home runs last night for the Red Sox, Rafaela is
Speaker 2: crazy hot. We're gonna bet over one and a half
Speaker 2: total bases for Sadan Rafayela and you have to go
Speaker 2: and find the best price. I got plus one thirty
Speaker 2: on this. You get plus money on Rafaela to go
Speaker 2: over one and a half total bases for one unit. Okay,
Speaker 2: bet number two gonna go back to the Drake Baldwin
Speaker 2: props because Drake Baldwin has been really good for us.
Speaker 2: The Braves have been really good for us. Let's go
Speaker 2: back to Drake Baldwin again. Hits runs and RBIs has
Speaker 2: been a very popular in a very liked prop market.
Speaker 2: For the prop bet cheat sheet Drake Baldwin one and
Speaker 2: a half hits runs and RBIs. The projection is two
Speaker 2: point seven hits runs and RBIs on the prop bet
Speaker 2: cheat sheet. This is a seventy six percent cover probability
Speaker 2: and a five star play. The record for this propit
Speaker 2: one and a half is forty nine and thirty six.
Speaker 2: He hit it yesterday. He there was no line on
Speaker 2: Drake Baldwin for hits runs and RBIs that can happen sometimes.
Speaker 2: So he went over yesterday, had an RBI, scored a run,
Speaker 2: had a hit, had a single. Okay, you hit a
Speaker 2: productive day yesterday. Drake Baldwin today against the Washington Nationals
Speaker 2: on a Sunday, Braves going for the four game sweep.
Speaker 2: Favored five star play on this for Drake Baldwin to
Speaker 2: continue to be an offensive machine for this offense for
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Braves. We're going over one and a half
Speaker 2: hits runs and RBIs here for Drake Baldwin at one
Speaker 2: point five. That's a minus one two prop one point
Speaker 2: four to two units down on Drake Baldwin over one
Speaker 2: and a half hits runs and RBIs sometimes the prop bit.
Speaker 2: Chichi just gets hot in some with one category hits
Speaker 2: runs and RBIs is.
Speaker 1: A category where it's been pretty hot.
Speaker 2: We got Torres yesterday with labor Torres to come in
Speaker 2: and get that. Let's get Drake Baldwin coming up here
Speaker 2: for today on that the third play, and there is
Speaker 2: a hard rock bet of the day coming up here
Speaker 2: for today the third play for us here on this,
Speaker 2: we're gonna continue with the prop market and we're gonna
Speaker 2: talk about and this one I used ai. I didn't
Speaker 2: want to it looked a look wonky. We're gonna come
Speaker 2: to with Brandon Lao. Brandon Lao, and this is what
Speaker 2: Brandon Lao has done over the last was that seven games.
Speaker 1: He's been really hot.
Speaker 2: The over is hit in forty eight of the ninety
Speaker 2: three games for Brandon Lao. Coming up here for today
Speaker 2: on this the Pirates are facing off against Chase Burns
Speaker 2: and the Rets.
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: Chase Burns is a very good pitcher, difficult guy to hit. However,
Speaker 2: Brandon lao two point five total base is being projected
Speaker 2: by the prop Pitt cheat sheet a fifty five percent
Speaker 2: cover probability.
Speaker 1: It is a five star play.
Speaker 2: This has come in in five of the last seven
Speaker 2: games for Brandon Lao. There are some books who are
Speaker 2: at a half half a base and that's minus one ninety.
Speaker 2: Hard Rock bets got it at a half a base
Speaker 2: at minus one ninety. So if you want to go
Speaker 2: and lay that type of juice, you can get it
Speaker 2: where single will get this for you. Because it is
Speaker 2: Chase Burns, he gets one single. But given that Brandon
Speaker 2: Lao has been as hot as he has been, here
Speaker 2: for this offense for the Pirates, and look at I
Speaker 2: think you're gonna have a chance to potentially get to
Speaker 2: Chase Burns. If not Chase Burns when he comes out
Speaker 2: of the game, the bullpen definitely would give us an
Speaker 2: opportunity with Brandon Lao to get multiple hits, a double,
Speaker 2: maybe even a home run here coming up for today
Speaker 2: that I feel comfortable, I'll lay the juice here with
Speaker 2: Brandon Lao over one and a half or take the
Speaker 2: juice at plus one and a half at plus one
Speaker 2: twenty four for one unit. So our three prop bets
Speaker 2: for today Rafaela over one and a half total bases,
Speaker 2: Baldwin over one and a half hits runs, and RBIs
Speaker 2: in Brandon Lao over one and a half total bases.
Speaker 2: The Daily Juice podcast, including the prop bet of the Day,
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Speaker 2: going to look at the Brewers. Jacob Mizowski is on
Speaker 2: the mound and he is an absolute demon. Jacob Misrowski
Speaker 2: eleven and four with a one point five to eight er.
Speaker 2: Jason Minroski last two times out has been on somewhat
Speaker 2: of a pitch count sixty five and eighty three pitches,
Speaker 2: but they let them stretch out little bit. Against Colorado,
Speaker 2: he went five innings, give up one earn run, a
Speaker 2: solo shot that was it. Eleven to two. Was the
Speaker 2: win for the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers did not trade
Speaker 2: for Tyrek Skoogle. I think this game on Peacock a
Speaker 2: chance for Missurowski to go and dominate and say, hey,
Speaker 2: I'm the best pitcher in the National League and the
Speaker 2: Brewers We're going to be fine. I got you, guys,
Speaker 2: Let's go. The Angels stink. They're twenty four and thirty
Speaker 2: three at home. Miserovski on the road has been absolutely dominant.
Speaker 2: He's at a one point sixty six ERA, a five
Speaker 2: and three market opposing matting average of one forty two
Speaker 2: is given up a grand total of nine runs in
Speaker 2: forty eight innings worth of work on the road. The
Speaker 2: Brewers are a good road team this year at thirty
Speaker 2: three and twenty one, Angels twenty four and thirty three
Speaker 2: at home. Like I mentioned, I just think this is
Speaker 2: a dominant six to two, three to one the first
Speaker 2: two wins here for the Brewers with Missurovski on the bump,
Speaker 2: to get a sweep of the Angels, who very well
Speaker 2: could be trading away some pretty big pieces. I mean
Speaker 2: they could even trade away potentially Mike Trout. I mean
Speaker 2: there's been all sorts of rumors about netto and everything
Speaker 2: else going on for the so a lot of uncertainty
Speaker 2: in that clubhouse for the Angels, and now they got
Speaker 2: to go face Mila Rowski. Yeah, I'll go hard rock.
Speaker 2: Bet let's lay the juice on the Brewers on the
Speaker 2: run line. They're on the road, so they get the
Speaker 2: full nine at batch, which is great. Brewers run line
Speaker 2: at Mius one thirty five for one point three five units.
Speaker 2: There's your hard rock bet of the day. Rafaela over
Speaker 2: one and a half total basis, Baldmin over one and
Speaker 2: a half hitch runs and RBIs and Brandon Lau over
Speaker 2: one and a half total bases here for today on
Speaker 2: a Sunday. I know that's a little more on the
Speaker 2: graphical side than what we normally do, but it's Sunday,
Speaker 2: so maybe you get a chance to take a look
Speaker 2: at the prop bit cheat sheet and how a Betting
Speaker 2: Pros Premium subscription things.
Speaker 1: You can see the projections.
Speaker 2: You can see some of them are out there that
Speaker 2: are free, but if you want to see the five
Speaker 2: star plays consistently, you need to have the Betting Pros
Speaker 2: Premium subscription to check a look at all. That home
Speaker 2: run prop tool in the morning doesn't update till the
Speaker 2: books come out with it, so we're trying to make
Speaker 2: that go a little bit earlier. Try to have it
Speaker 2: be available a bit before earlier during the day. It's
Speaker 2: why I havn't used it for the Daily Juice, but
Speaker 2: you can use it most likely around like eleven o'clock
Speaker 2: or so, when the game's a couple of hours before
Speaker 2: first pitch. You guys can get involved with the prop
Speaker 2: bet Chi Chee Plus. You can get involved with the
Speaker 2: home Run tool as well with betting pros Premium Mine's
Speaker 2: Matt Paroti. You guys can follow me across all my
Speaker 2: socials at Sports Doc Matt every morning wherever you guys
Speaker 2: get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice