WEBVTT - Understanding the Collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wisn't Tracy? Obviously, the

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<v Speaker 1>big story, which we haven't talked about yet, is the

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<v Speaker 1>collapse of the crypto Exchange ft X and the broader empire,

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<v Speaker 1>which was built by Sam Bankman Freed, which includes a

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<v Speaker 1>trading shop alimeter research. That's right. It has been really

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<v Speaker 1>a stunning two weeks for the industry, in part because

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Bankman Freed, or SPF as he's frequently referred to,

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<v Speaker 1>had become arguably the face of crypto. He was highly

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<v Speaker 1>influential in d C, he was a donor to numerous

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<v Speaker 1>nonprofits and politicians, wildly rich, and of course we have

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<v Speaker 1>interviewed him a number of times on this very podcast, right,

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<v Speaker 1>so the last time we interviewed him it had already

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<v Speaker 1>become something of an infamous episode. We're joined by our

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<v Speaker 1>colleague Matt Levine, and during that conversation that he described

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<v Speaker 1>much of defy or at least the concept of yield

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<v Speaker 1>farming in a matter that sounded a lot like a

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<v Speaker 1>Ponzi scheme. And of course he didn't describe f t

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<v Speaker 1>X or l AMDA his own business as a ponzi exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>We're still learning details about how it all collapsed. Nonetheless,

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<v Speaker 1>in the wake of this implosion, I don't think there's

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<v Speaker 1>any doubt that those comments are seen as just a

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<v Speaker 1>massive red flag, right, And as you mentioned, this is

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<v Speaker 1>all moving very very fast. It is a gigantic, really

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<v Speaker 1>sprawling story that ranks up there with some of the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest corporate disasters and potentially frauds of all time. And

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<v Speaker 1>given its size and speed, it's a little tough to

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<v Speaker 1>do a complete overview of the story right now. There's

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<v Speaker 1>already been a lot that's been written about it and

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<v Speaker 1>reported on at multiple media outlets, So we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>try to do things a little bit differently. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to try to break things up a bit. First, today,

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<v Speaker 1>we are going to be speaking with a market participant

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<v Speaker 1>who used f t X and was caught out in

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<v Speaker 1>the scandal. And then we'll be speaking to a whistleblower

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<v Speaker 1>who was among the first to sound the alarm at

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<v Speaker 1>something actually being wrong at f t X and Alameda, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And then we're going to be doing a follow up

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<v Speaker 1>episode tomorrow with Matt Levine where we'll try to understand

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<v Speaker 1>more about what's happened and what is currently going on

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<v Speaker 1>right now in the wake of the collapse. But for

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<v Speaker 1>now we want to start with the gunny guy. Avoid

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<v Speaker 1>here's the founder and CEO of Winter Mute, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the largest crypto market making operation. It had been very

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<v Speaker 1>active on f t X and he's going to help

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<v Speaker 1>us understand a little bit more about f t X

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<v Speaker 1>and Alameda's role in crypto market structure. So if Jenny,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for coming on the Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you tell us? What do you do and

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<v Speaker 1>what is Winter Mute? Yeah, Hi, thanks for having me. Um, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess very quickly about the Wintermute one of the

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<v Speaker 1>largest crypto market makers. We've been at since the Southern

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<v Speaker 1>suventeen and I think at this stage basically is the

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<v Speaker 1>largest the native market maker after Salamat's device. It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>an interesting way to have to grow the ranks with

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<v Speaker 1>all the with all that's going on, but basically we

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<v Speaker 1>our businesses across centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges have been active

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<v Speaker 1>and defie since two thousand nineteen, and of course or

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<v Speaker 1>to see as well. So it's a lot of different

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<v Speaker 1>diversified activities. We are training billions dollars per per day

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<v Speaker 1>on all kinds of venues and in general very deeply

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<v Speaker 1>intertwined with the crypt taker system. Can you explain that

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit further? What does a market maker in

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<v Speaker 1>crypto actually do? And what is your business relationship with

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<v Speaker 1>the various exchanges like f TX. Yeah, on centralized exchanges,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fairly similar to how it works and traditional finance.

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<v Speaker 1>We basically provide bits and offers all great nuclear so

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<v Speaker 1>that people get access to liquidity. When it kin comes

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<v Speaker 1>to like how we work with different exchanges, There's are

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<v Speaker 1>no formal contracts as such. It's basically us creating an

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<v Speaker 1>account just like everyone else, institutional accounts of like everyone else,

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<v Speaker 1>and and then effectively sent orders via APIs that exchanges proved,

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<v Speaker 1>so you mentioned they. You know, you've sort of grown

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<v Speaker 1>in market share since the collapse of Lamet, which was

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<v Speaker 1>a competitor. Can you talk about prior to the implosion

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<v Speaker 1>of f t X and elmet, which of course will discuss,

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<v Speaker 1>what was your understanding and what was your view of

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<v Speaker 1>the f t X L meter relationship. I guess yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean alla meta part was pretty shocking because basically

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much everyone in the industry, including myself, assumes that

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<v Speaker 1>Alometer has been writing running a pretty big and successful

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<v Speaker 1>operation across centralized and decentralized exchanges. For example, we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>them being very active on Serum, the Solana Native decks.

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<v Speaker 1>We suspected that they have a pretty decent market share

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<v Speaker 1>on ft act itself, despite actually not being able to

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<v Speaker 1>confirm it or denied, simply because one of the great

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<v Speaker 1>things that was about FC access that they had a

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<v Speaker 1>leaderboards for volumes and they were pretty public being there

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<v Speaker 1>and saying that they have InterMute is whatever number it

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<v Speaker 1>or number three or like whatever depends on the months,

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<v Speaker 1>but you will would never see lamed in there, which

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of annoying. But yeah, we kind of got that,

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<v Speaker 1>and not everyone wants to show the presence his publicly

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<v Speaker 1>is with it. And now I'm thinking, okay, probably the

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<v Speaker 1>market chair was either very big or maybe potentially very small,

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<v Speaker 1>but more likely very big because like one of the

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<v Speaker 1>main because like I guess the main question is given

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<v Speaker 1>the size of the whole that f t X faces

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<v Speaker 1>and that they lend money to al Ameter, somehow they

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<v Speaker 1>managed to lose those those billions, and one of the

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<v Speaker 1>one of the ideas that's traveling around crypto Twitter is

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<v Speaker 1>basically they were just very bad market maker, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>because they were kind of forced to probably quit it

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<v Speaker 1>an f t X and they basically lost of money

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<v Speaker 1>over the years supporting that liquity. What was your experience

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<v Speaker 1>of last week, Like when did you first think, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>something is happening here. I saw you were quite early

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<v Speaker 1>about pulling your money out of FTX dot US, but

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<v Speaker 1>some of it is stuck in f t X, the

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<v Speaker 1>international exchange. Like what exactly was your experience of the

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<v Speaker 1>past ten days or so? Yeah, I guess when it

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<v Speaker 1>all started with the z twits and when like the

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<v Speaker 1>first withdrawals started in f t X, we basically withdrew

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<v Speaker 1>roughly half of our capital simply because we basically our

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<v Speaker 1>initial assessment was exchange is going to be fine, but

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<v Speaker 1>it might be struggling with withdrawals for sometimes. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>just not smart to look so much so much of

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<v Speaker 1>our capital over there, because like the way we operate,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a number of exchanges that we consider to

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<v Speaker 1>be safe. That's where like we basically have a pool

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<v Speaker 1>of capitals that we keep rebalancing across different exchanges. And

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<v Speaker 1>also decentralized exchanges, so block chains, and we have a

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<v Speaker 1>number of exchanges which considered safe and we basically park

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<v Speaker 1>excess capital there every nouncer because it's quite easy, like

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<v Speaker 1>an fc X was one of them, like great things

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<v Speaker 1>that was about. Another great thing that was about fc

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<v Speaker 1>access that you could actually like very different stable coins

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<v Speaker 1>again versus each other. So it was it was a

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<v Speaker 1>very neat exchange to park the cash on. But once

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<v Speaker 1>we realized that, yeah, it might be that they may

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<v Speaker 1>be close withdrawals for a bit, maybe maybe they just

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<v Speaker 1>be super swamped with withdrawal requests, so it's just not

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<v Speaker 1>great to have our capital on it. So we kind

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<v Speaker 1>of stopped doing that and we decreased it. But the

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<v Speaker 1>initial assessment was, yeah, we want to keep some capital

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<v Speaker 1>on because it's going to be great, great trading with

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<v Speaker 1>all this moilutility, Yeah, which turned out to be not

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<v Speaker 1>not very great. I want to go back to something

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<v Speaker 1>you said about maybe l meter or just bad market makers,

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<v Speaker 1>or maybe they were bad market makers because they were

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<v Speaker 1>the official or the unofficial in house, like did the

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<v Speaker 1>provider at f t X. I believe and correct me

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<v Speaker 1>if I'm wrong. I believe that prior to all of this,

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<v Speaker 1>say like prior to this month or whatever, there was

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<v Speaker 1>a perception that LAMA had an unfair advantage in its

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<v Speaker 1>trading by dint of its relationship with f t X.

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<v Speaker 1>In other words, that it was very profitable but only

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<v Speaker 1>because it had some sort of relationship with f t X.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you have that perception beforehand that it gave an advantage,

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<v Speaker 1>and now do you sort of view this other side

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<v Speaker 1>that essentially the relationship actually made it harder for ELMA

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<v Speaker 1>to make money. I guess my perception was that Alameda

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<v Speaker 1>was not really market making an f t X to

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<v Speaker 1>make the liquid it's bigger simply because like, there's enough

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<v Speaker 1>market makers and ft X like. It was probably the

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<v Speaker 1>second biggest exchange in primitives at some point, and honestly,

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<v Speaker 1>there was no need for somebody to well, some for

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<v Speaker 1>some internal market making desk to provide this liquidity too.

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<v Speaker 1>So I was always thinking, okay, if they would be

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<v Speaker 1>losing money and that they would just pull off and

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<v Speaker 1>let others do their job, because yes, there is there

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<v Speaker 1>are enough crypto market makers to fill in, and so

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<v Speaker 1>my assumption was barely the advantage that would be getting

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<v Speaker 1>would be from basically realizing some synergies between like ft

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<v Speaker 1>X listings for example, like especially I think it was

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<v Speaker 1>especially apparent on Slana where alamido ft X with investing

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<v Speaker 1>the protocols and then protocol would pretty much immediately get

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<v Speaker 1>listed an f t X and basically, since Alameda would

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<v Speaker 1>have well hising inventory of tokens or barely better knowledge

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<v Speaker 1>about like how all this stuff works, they would be

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<v Speaker 1>just better position to make money out of it. And

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<v Speaker 1>that that to me sounded like a pretty good money

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<v Speaker 1>making machine, and that that was one of the reasons

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<v Speaker 1>I kind of expected them to print billions last year

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe you know, just losing some of the venture

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<v Speaker 1>positions this year, and that's a so one of the

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<v Speaker 1>criticisms that's come out about this whole thing, and my gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of things that you could say here,

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<v Speaker 1>but one of them is that this is all about

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<v Speaker 1>centralized finance because f t X was a centralized exchange,

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't actually decentralized like a lot of other ones are,

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<v Speaker 1>like Newna Swap being the primary example. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>say to that criticism? Is that fair? I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>very fair. Basically, I I really disagree that this is

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<v Speaker 1>a failure of Crypta. I think it's, if anything, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a vindication of everything Crypta is standing for, which is

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<v Speaker 1>basically being completely decentralized, being committed, transparent, and basically, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>people have an access to their own assets, self study,

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<v Speaker 1>and basically not relying on anything really because like, if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at all the failures of this year, like

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<v Speaker 1>even Terror, even though it was a decentralized protocol, the

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<v Speaker 1>only reason Terror blew up to such a massive proportions

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<v Speaker 1>was well, I think, in my opinion at least, the

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<v Speaker 1>main reason was that this crazy twenty percent yield was

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<v Speaker 1>repackaged by centralized institutions in the very opaque way it

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<v Speaker 1>was repackaged to the retail, and so retail would not

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<v Speaker 1>get ten percent guild on their account. Those centralized entities

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<v Speaker 1>would get like ten percent spread over the Terror, and

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<v Speaker 1>everyone was happy unless until until basically everything blew up.

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<v Speaker 1>The three arrow blob exactly the same thing, like everyone

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<v Speaker 1>lent to three arrows, but nobody knew what the combined

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<v Speaker 1>value of the loans was, and then when they blew up, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>all the centralized landers got hurt simply because it was

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<v Speaker 1>just centralized and transparent. And finally f t X exactly

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing they lent Alamida. Nobody knew about it

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<v Speaker 1>because it was yeah, it was not public. It was

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<v Speaker 1>like somewhere on the internal ledger, not even most of

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<v Speaker 1>the place knew about it, I think. And again it

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<v Speaker 1>blew up in a very centralized fation. So to me,

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<v Speaker 1>the crypto kind of solves it. And it's quite unfortunate

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<v Speaker 1>toward a trip to exchange, but it's a to me,

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<v Speaker 1>it's an indication of all the cryptoe ideals. So I

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<v Speaker 1>want to go back to the experience of trading on

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<v Speaker 1>f t X specifically, you mentioned that your perception prior

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<v Speaker 1>to this was that f t X was a high

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<v Speaker 1>quality exchange, a safe place to park capital when it

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't in a in a trade. What was good about

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<v Speaker 1>f t X. It does seem to me like when

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<v Speaker 1>I've talked to professional crypto traders, they liked this site.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think part of the reason maybe people are

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<v Speaker 1>so blindsided by this collapse is the fact that by

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<v Speaker 1>all accounts, the f t X platform seemed to be

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<v Speaker 1>a good one that people really like the experience that

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<v Speaker 1>had a lot of uptime, People like the way the

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<v Speaker 1>liquidations worked on ft X, can you talk about your

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<v Speaker 1>experience just being a traitor on it and in your

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 1>view why f t X got the prominence that it did.

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>I think it's very much linked to SBF to be honest, Like, yes,

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.280
<v Speaker 1>sure it was a good platform to trade, especially because

0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 1>they were pretty yeah there's a pretty quick about listen ussets,

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.480
<v Speaker 1>they're pretty quick about well. Basically I guess that perhaps

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.240
<v Speaker 1>were great and there were like a lot of different

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.199
<v Speaker 1>products products. One sense it wasn't great about f t

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 1>X and everyone knows about it as well, is this

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 1>throughput was pretty a bit small, like a number of

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.800
<v Speaker 1>others you can send per second. Like all those limits,

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.599
<v Speaker 1>they kept increasing them by I don't know. Sometimes it

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 1>would come and say, oh, good, great news for increased

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:49.760
<v Speaker 1>but they needed like a two th increase. And one

0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 1>of the reasons I think, and yeah, I don't know,

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.000
<v Speaker 1>I have no idea, like I haven't looked through the

0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.599
<v Speaker 1>code base, but I guess one of the reasons for

0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 1>this was basically what was promoting very much is that

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>the matching engine was combined with their risk engine, because

0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.680
<v Speaker 1>you could use all those assets on margin as collateral

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:13.199
<v Speaker 1>to trade all this perpetual products, like every time you

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>send another and it gets matched. It would need to

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>do both matching and their risk calculation, which I would

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.720
<v Speaker 1>imagine would slow it quite considerably. And I was always

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 1>like very curious how much you can leverage that, like

0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:30.880
<v Speaker 1>how much how much you can expand that, because honestly,

0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.720
<v Speaker 1>like none of the centralized cryptic exchanges are close to

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:38.360
<v Speaker 1>strouput to even like the worst I know European Stock

0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Exchange for example, they just all really really bad, like

0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 1>even violence, and ft X was quite worse than violence

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 1>in the throughput twice even though it was smaller volume wis.

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.080
<v Speaker 1>So to me, it was always a question like how

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 1>is it going to grow? Like how is it gonna

0:14:54.480 --> 0:15:00.040
<v Speaker 1>continue making this throutput, especially because like if as a

0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin in the studium, that's fine. But the idea I

0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>was I think was like expanded the stocks, expanded, the commodities,

0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>expanding everything. Also, I don't know, maybe maybe it was

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>all the facade, but to me, it was always securious

0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>saying like, yeah, you mentioned engine clearing, it's not great

0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>that you actually should it. It's physically possible to maintain

0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 1>this model. So just to be clear, your perception was

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>that there was this trade off that the throughput in

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 1>terms of total volume at f t X was not

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>say what you could get it binance, but that was

0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 1>because it had this superior matching engine and ability to

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>cross margin assets. Can you just explain what that means

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>for the listener, that the matching engine, the cross margining asset,

0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:50.160
<v Speaker 1>and what is the advantage of that as a professional trader. Yeah,

0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.400
<v Speaker 1>so basically if you go if you go on binance

0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 1>and trade binance features, you need to post b U,

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:58.280
<v Speaker 1>s D or some I think there's a cross margin

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:00.560
<v Speaker 1>was also stable quins as well now, and but that's

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 1>that's just one instrument. If you if you would trade

0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:04.960
<v Speaker 1>on ft X, you could use your bitcoin, you can

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 1>use an e Syria, and you can use like a

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>dozens of other different tokens for which the price would

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 1>be quite volatile. Right, So let's say you have one

0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 1>million works of bitcoin and one million works of dollars.

0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 1>You could use both of those positions too as a

0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 1>margin to enter delative contracts, which is very handy because

0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:27.960
<v Speaker 1>you like you trade sport, you trade perpet you trade perpetuals.

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.360
<v Speaker 1>You can do it all on one account. And yeah,

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:34.040
<v Speaker 1>it's it's very convenient from the capital perspective because you,

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 1>for example, like what if you only have bitcoin then

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 1>just parking bitcoin and still get margin on on FTX.

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:43.560
<v Speaker 1>That's great, but that also means that you're met that

0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.200
<v Speaker 1>the matching engine continuously had to keep in its mind

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>what the price of bitcoin is, because maybe if bitcoin fALS,

0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.480
<v Speaker 1>you'll need to liquidate this guy, because really if his

0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:57.040
<v Speaker 1>positions are you know, like his his unrealized profit as

0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 1>like THEO low, and so maybe we need to liquidate

0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 1>his bitcoin line and then initiate like the whole liquidation process,

0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.959
<v Speaker 1>which which is basically way more complex than for binus futures,

0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.960
<v Speaker 1>which is just yeah, we just take your perpetual exposure.

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 1>It's it's generous dollars bn L and you only have

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars and your accounts. It's very easy. This actually leads

0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 1>into something I wanted to ask you, which is a

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of I guess fundamental criticism about defy, which is,

0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>even if you're dealing with decentralized exchanges or you know,

0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.040
<v Speaker 1>you hold your own keys or whatever, because you don't

0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:36.440
<v Speaker 1>actually know who you're lending to, DEFY often places a

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of emphasis on the underlying collateral. The quality of

0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 1>the collateral and the price of it, and so if

0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.480
<v Speaker 1>it starts to go down, you do get these big

0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:49.359
<v Speaker 1>margin calls because you don't really know who your counterparty is.

0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 1>That seems like a potential vulnerability for defy, particularly in

0:17:55.600 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 1>an environment where we're seeing the collateral price, you know,

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:04.200
<v Speaker 1>be extremely volatile. Well, I think that like defy challenges

0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.639
<v Speaker 1>potentially is they don't stem from the fact that you

0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:10.160
<v Speaker 1>don't know who your counterpart is. They're primarily stemming from

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.560
<v Speaker 1>two things. One is just a quality of collectal like

0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, and basically the fact that in extreme market

0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.720
<v Speaker 1>moves it might not be possible to liquidated quick enough

0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:22.200
<v Speaker 1>on the access and that basic basically the quality of

0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the collateral can drop so quickly, is that there will

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.680
<v Speaker 1>be no incentive for anyone to do liquidations, and that

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>can create gaps and products like whole wholes and protocol

0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.200
<v Speaker 1>treasuries for example, which which happened after Lunar with with

0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:39.200
<v Speaker 1>some protocols. And the second second issue is it's also

0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 1>related to just potential manipulation vectors and that that has

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.200
<v Speaker 1>to do with oracles because you like what we what

0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 1>we've seen with malgo markets. So a few weeks ago,

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 1>for example, was that yeah, if you manipulate the oracle price,

0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 1>you can potentially create sort of run the bank for

0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.400
<v Speaker 1>those sounds of slending protocols as well. Honestly, I think

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 1>it's all like both of those issues are solvable. Basically

0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 1>most most of the time issues with descentralized protocols were

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 1>caused by just the quality of a collateral, which works

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.880
<v Speaker 1>both on like a float level, so if if it's

0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 1>just some old coin which has a very low float

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.879
<v Speaker 1>yet it just wouldn't be able to liok at it

0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:17.719
<v Speaker 1>fast enough, but also on the oracle level as well,

0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:20.359
<v Speaker 1>if it's like a very small talk and it's very

0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>easy to manipulate surprise, just like the service Mango. But overall,

0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:28.920
<v Speaker 1>like the defied protocols over the last I know, nine

0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.760
<v Speaker 1>twelve months worked perfectly well in terms of stress. Like

0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 1>you haven't seen any issues with other you haven't seen

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.960
<v Speaker 1>any issues with Compound. They worked just like they intended

0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:41.720
<v Speaker 1>to be. People are doing liquidations at all. It was

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:44.800
<v Speaker 1>all very much elderly, so I think from that perspective,

0:19:44.880 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 1>I think it's still pretticol system to look at. Are

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>you going to change the way you think about counterparty

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:57.520
<v Speaker 1>risk and keeping money on exchanges, any exchanges in the

0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.439
<v Speaker 1>wake of this, how are you changing your business up rations?

0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:03.520
<v Speaker 1>We're basically playing it very safe. So there are like

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 1>very small number of exchanges that we considered to be safe,

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 1>and we have is drawing from a lot of like

0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.560
<v Speaker 1>what we call t S three exchanges at the moment,

0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:15.360
<v Speaker 1>and even some of the tear too exchanges. We basically

0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:19.440
<v Speaker 1>and I cannot really name names because we actually have

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.560
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good relationship with most of them. And like

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 1>if I say it Withdrew from Exchange, why it does

0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 1>mean that we think the bankrupt. It just means that

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.240
<v Speaker 1>we are We're just waiting for our due diligence. We're

0:20:30.280 --> 0:20:32.480
<v Speaker 1>waiting for them to provide financials. We're just waiting for

0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:35.240
<v Speaker 1>them to kind of prove to us that they're fine.

0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:38.640
<v Speaker 1>And so the idea for us is just to get

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 1>this due diligence done and in a week or two

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>we just resume training and all the exchanges that remain.

0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:47.239
<v Speaker 1>But my unfortunate yeah, understanding of the situation is there

0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:51.680
<v Speaker 1>might be more exchanges failing, like big and small. So yeah,

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:55.960
<v Speaker 1>it's just very good security practice to be very safe

0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:59.240
<v Speaker 1>in this environment. I think for individual users, I would

0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:02.639
<v Speaker 1>generally advice to try self custody if you can, or

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>withdraw to like very very high quality exchanges if you cannot.

0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:10.399
<v Speaker 1>What exactly is the path for contagion here? Like what

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 1>happens if ft X goes down? Like why should we

0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 1>worry about a Tier three exchange? What's the knock on effect? Um?

0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:21.280
<v Speaker 1>The knock on effect can be I guess like multiple vectors.

0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 1>First of all, sounds of exchanges like the way they

0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:27.280
<v Speaker 1>operate with market makers. Some of them they provide letters

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 1>of credit, so they basically can extend what leverage effectively

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 1>or just be your free capital to market makers so

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:37.399
<v Speaker 1>that the market makers would have better incentive to provide markets.

0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 1>So if any of those history exchanges gave lots of

0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:45.359
<v Speaker 1>credit Dolometer and Telometer lost money, they could be facing

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:48.840
<v Speaker 1>some losses. Second way it can be can be happening

0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:51.160
<v Speaker 1>is basically a lot of exchanges will be keeping there

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:54.520
<v Speaker 1>like some of their capital on FTX. And we've seen

0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:58.120
<v Speaker 1>like some some exchanges coming forward and meeting that whether

0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:00.800
<v Speaker 1>it can be for internal market maker in operations, So

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:05.159
<v Speaker 1>it can be simply because they just sometimes basically like

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:08.840
<v Speaker 1>broadcast liquidity on the exchange via ft X either way,

0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:13.200
<v Speaker 1>they could potentially keep some of their money on ft X.

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:16.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, one of the interesting things that makes crypto

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:20.440
<v Speaker 1>distinct from say tread fire the stock market if you

0:22:20.560 --> 0:22:24.960
<v Speaker 1>do have this separation of the broker and the market.

0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:27.159
<v Speaker 1>And so if I log into a Schwab account to

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 1>trade stocks, Schwab is the broker, but Schwab is not

0:22:31.840 --> 0:22:36.200
<v Speaker 1>the stock market itself. It seems like that different in crypto,

0:22:36.280 --> 0:22:39.240
<v Speaker 1>where it's like finance or f t X, that's you

0:22:39.320 --> 0:22:41.760
<v Speaker 1>have your account there, but it also is the market

0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:45.160
<v Speaker 1>and that has the order book. Would it make sense

0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 1>to separate those? Yeah, it's a very good question. Um,

0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:53.320
<v Speaker 1>I guess it depends as the right answer. On one hand,

0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:57.520
<v Speaker 1>like a few exchanges that I think is perfectly fine

0:22:57.600 --> 0:23:00.440
<v Speaker 1>to do it basically, Okay, let's let's give you this

0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:04.159
<v Speaker 1>kind of framework. The main like not necessarily cause but

0:23:04.280 --> 0:23:07.560
<v Speaker 1>like a huge amount of effort for centralized exchanges goes

0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:12.200
<v Speaker 1>and k I c mL of their customers. So it's

0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:14.160
<v Speaker 1>a pretty big I'm pretty sure it's a big, pretty

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:17.080
<v Speaker 1>big cost. It's a pretty big number of employees who

0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:20.560
<v Speaker 1>I busited this and that's that's honestly where the biggest

0:23:20.600 --> 0:23:24.720
<v Speaker 1>regulatory attack vector comes from as well, because yeah, if

0:23:24.760 --> 0:23:27.760
<v Speaker 1>you do not cave I see properly, like if you

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:30.400
<v Speaker 1>kve I see someone, no Korean people or you know whatever,

0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:33.280
<v Speaker 1>you can get in trouble. So that that's pretty big

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:38.000
<v Speaker 1>cost base. Effectively, if if that part is taken away

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:41.320
<v Speaker 1>from exchanges, like whoever runs this needs to charge quite

0:23:41.359 --> 0:23:43.040
<v Speaker 1>a bit for it, because yeah, it's a pretty big

0:23:43.119 --> 0:23:46.159
<v Speaker 1>cost to run. And so you can argue that the

0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:49.200
<v Speaker 1>centralized exchanges off setting this course by charge and trading

0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:51.920
<v Speaker 1>fees from all those people that the cave I see, Like,

0:23:52.000 --> 0:23:55.359
<v Speaker 1>if you completely separate it, it would be yeah, it

0:23:55.400 --> 0:23:57.480
<v Speaker 1>would be interesting. I mean it's a kind of a

0:23:57.560 --> 0:24:01.480
<v Speaker 1>different model again obviously because all those kind of broker's

0:24:01.480 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>effectively would be would have to do I s instead.

0:24:04.480 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>But ultimately, yes, they would need to figure out the

0:24:07.359 --> 0:24:11.680
<v Speaker 1>way to i know, either share revenues or basically find

0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:14.399
<v Speaker 1>in a different business small around it, because currently all

0:24:14.440 --> 0:24:17.440
<v Speaker 1>those costs are offset by training fees and whatever the

0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:21.560
<v Speaker 1>auxiliary profits or exchanges generate. So we talked a little

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:24.160
<v Speaker 1>bit about how you know, f t X was generally

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:28.080
<v Speaker 1>considered to be a good exchange from a technology perspective.

0:24:28.359 --> 0:24:32.720
<v Speaker 1>Some of the latent latency issues you describe. Notwithstanding, but

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 1>like Sam Bankman, Freed overall was generally considered to be

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:41.120
<v Speaker 1>this titan of crypto. And we can argue about whether

0:24:41.200 --> 0:24:43.560
<v Speaker 1>or not that reputation was deserved given that he was

0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:47.159
<v Speaker 1>running a centralized exchange versus a decentralized exchange. But this

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:51.200
<v Speaker 1>seems like a massive, massive deal for the industry as

0:24:51.240 --> 0:24:53.440
<v Speaker 1>a whole, that this guy who was sort of held

0:24:53.560 --> 0:24:57.399
<v Speaker 1>up as the face of it was essentially running some

0:24:57.520 --> 0:25:01.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of fraud. What is the long term impact of

0:25:01.680 --> 0:25:05.080
<v Speaker 1>all of this on the crypto space? Does institutional capital

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:07.680
<v Speaker 1>just dry up at this point? How do you convince

0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:10.680
<v Speaker 1>people to put money into a space that time and

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:13.840
<v Speaker 1>time again seems to either blow up or be the

0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:17.960
<v Speaker 1>victim of hacks or fraud. On the institutional side, I

0:25:18.040 --> 0:25:22.200
<v Speaker 1>think it will all come come down to they're just

0:25:22.520 --> 0:25:25.399
<v Speaker 1>just coming up with a better ways to custody assets

0:25:25.600 --> 0:25:28.040
<v Speaker 1>because you have one big issue. Obviously, if you store

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:31.360
<v Speaker 1>US as an FTX, you basically screwed. But I also

0:25:31.480 --> 0:25:33.919
<v Speaker 1>there are quite quite a few banks that are actively

0:25:34.000 --> 0:25:36.119
<v Speaker 1>working on it, like traditional banks. On the cost of

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:39.000
<v Speaker 1>the solutions, B and why came up, we came up

0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:41.000
<v Speaker 1>with one like a month ago or something, right, I

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:44.360
<v Speaker 1>think that that will be ultimately the past institutional adoption

0:25:44.440 --> 0:25:46.920
<v Speaker 1>because they will just need to replicate the same same

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 1>rails effectively to to operate. Saying the custody has been

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:53.640
<v Speaker 1>the major piece that has been missing, and once it's done,

0:25:53.720 --> 0:25:58.000
<v Speaker 1>it's because like ASBFS failure was not a failure of

0:25:58.040 --> 0:26:01.240
<v Speaker 1>crypto again, it was a failure of his centralizeddentity. So

0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>once you remove custody from it, Okay, it shouldn't really

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:08.320
<v Speaker 1>affect you that much because yeah, if you studyr money

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:11.679
<v Speaker 1>not on a not an FTX but with extodian for example,

0:26:11.840 --> 0:26:15.480
<v Speaker 1>or just story yourself, it should be fine. I think,

0:26:15.520 --> 0:26:18.960
<v Speaker 1>like if you're talking about more longer term impact of this,

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:21.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's safety assume there will be a pretty

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:25.080
<v Speaker 1>big regulatory response, because regulators should have fuel day about

0:26:25.080 --> 0:26:28.560
<v Speaker 1>around this. I kind of hope that, yeah, there there

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:30.800
<v Speaker 1>would be like some some of the at least some

0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:34.520
<v Speaker 1>of the fault will be recognized, like on the SEC side,

0:26:34.600 --> 0:26:38.080
<v Speaker 1>given just how close those guys were, how this looks like.

0:26:38.840 --> 0:26:41.240
<v Speaker 1>But overall, yeah, I think I think there are laws

0:26:41.320 --> 0:26:43.280
<v Speaker 1>that we will see implemented on the U S side

0:26:43.280 --> 0:26:46.160
<v Speaker 1>of things, and maybe globally as well won't be as

0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:49.640
<v Speaker 1>favorable as they would have been like a few months ago.

0:26:50.320 --> 0:26:52.639
<v Speaker 1>For me, the events of the past week kind of

0:26:52.920 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 1>proved that we need to go back to the to

0:26:55.440 --> 0:26:59.000
<v Speaker 1>those ideas of the centralization of But it basically exists

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:02.720
<v Speaker 1>in the trust less old whenever it comes to individual users,

0:27:02.800 --> 0:27:05.119
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's that to me. Is this something

0:27:05.240 --> 0:27:08.359
<v Speaker 1>that kind of like re rebooted the whole thing for me,

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:11.920
<v Speaker 1>I rebooted my whole approach to crypto, rebooted my face

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 1>and crypt as something that can replace future financial system

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 1>as well, Like I actually believe even more than before

0:27:18.400 --> 0:27:22.560
<v Speaker 1>after this somehow, Hey, Jenny, thank you so much for

0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:25.320
<v Speaker 1>coming out a lots. Yeah, thank you for having it.

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:28.680
<v Speaker 1>That was if Jinny guy boy of Winter Mute talking

0:27:28.760 --> 0:27:30.960
<v Speaker 1>to us about how he had seen f t X

0:27:31.080 --> 0:27:34.000
<v Speaker 1>is business. Next up, we'll be speaking to James Block.

0:27:34.200 --> 0:27:37.600
<v Speaker 1>You might know him better from his Twitter handle Mike

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:41.159
<v Speaker 1>Burger's Burg. He also writes about crypto and fraud at

0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:44.200
<v Speaker 1>the Dirty Bubble media sub stacks, So we will be

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:46.639
<v Speaker 1>talking to him about what he saw at f t

0:27:46.920 --> 0:28:06.639
<v Speaker 1>X that raised some initial red flax. So we are

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:09.800
<v Speaker 1>back and we're about to speak with James Block. He

0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:13.159
<v Speaker 1>was one of the initial researchers who sounded the alarm

0:28:13.280 --> 0:28:16.320
<v Speaker 1>on f t X and Alameda and set some of

0:28:16.400 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 1>these events in motion. So James, thanks so much for

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:22.280
<v Speaker 1>coming on all thoughts. Hey, it's great to be here. James,

0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:25.639
<v Speaker 1>tell us who you are, because it seems like you

0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 1>are basically a doctor by day and crypto researcher by night.

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.440
<v Speaker 1>Is that accurate, that's something like that. Yeah, yeah, I'm

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 1>trained as a physician scientist. Kind of got interested in

0:28:37.600 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>this space, if you want to call it that, about

0:28:39.400 --> 0:28:41.560
<v Speaker 1>a year ago. Just kind of always had a fascination

0:28:41.680 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>with financial crimes and kind of the oddities of how

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.440
<v Speaker 1>financial markets work. So crypto seemed like a really interesting

0:28:48.520 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 1>place to kind of dive in and learn some stuff.

0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 1>What first got you interested in f t X specifically?

0:28:55.920 --> 0:28:58.840
<v Speaker 1>So before I was writing about f t X, I

0:28:58.920 --> 0:29:02.040
<v Speaker 1>was really looking into this Selsia's network scandal, which might

0:29:02.120 --> 0:29:05.080
<v Speaker 1>have been writing about extensively prior to their collapse. And

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:08.480
<v Speaker 1>it turns out that there were extensive ties between Celsia's

0:29:08.520 --> 0:29:11.800
<v Speaker 1>network and FTX, both financial and other. So that's kind

0:29:11.800 --> 0:29:13.360
<v Speaker 1>of how I kind of got into it looking at

0:29:13.400 --> 0:29:15.920
<v Speaker 1>it from that perspective, and then I was able to

0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>find out some information about their actual financial condition, and

0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:22.680
<v Speaker 1>then that's when I wrote an article about Alameda's financial

0:29:22.720 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 1>situation that has some impact on the how the events

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:28.120
<v Speaker 1>turned out. So one of the things that we hear

0:29:28.160 --> 0:29:30.920
<v Speaker 1>about crypto quite a lot is that, you know, it's

0:29:31.120 --> 0:29:34.880
<v Speaker 1>very transparent, you can trace wallet addresses, you can sort

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 1>of follow the money and figure out what's going on.

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:42.200
<v Speaker 1>And yet yet we seem to have um like repetitive

0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>frauds in the space. What's your sense of that part

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:50.360
<v Speaker 1>of crypto When you're looking at crypto trying to expose

0:29:50.400 --> 0:29:55.000
<v Speaker 1>potential frauds, is it easier than with traditional finance. I

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:58.000
<v Speaker 1>definitely think that it is easier in some respects. I mean,

0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:01.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the information is public and easily legible

0:30:01.120 --> 0:30:03.840
<v Speaker 1>if you understand how to read the data, which isn't. Honestly,

0:30:03.840 --> 0:30:06.040
<v Speaker 1>it's not that complicated. The part of it that people

0:30:06.200 --> 0:30:08.760
<v Speaker 1>forget about is that the vast majority of the economic

0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:12.280
<v Speaker 1>activity happening in this space doesn't happen on the blockchain.

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:16.080
<v Speaker 1>It happens in centralized exchanges and other platforms that don't

0:30:16.160 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>use the blockchain for any of the transactions. They perform. So,

0:30:19.000 --> 0:30:21.920
<v Speaker 1>for example, ft x is an exchange, you would deposit

0:30:22.000 --> 0:30:25.440
<v Speaker 1>your crypto there and then it just sits there. Theoretically

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:27.120
<v Speaker 1>it should sit in their wallet, and then all of

0:30:27.200 --> 0:30:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the trading actually happens on a off off chain like

0:30:30.600 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>centralized platform. And then eventually, let's say you want to

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:35.440
<v Speaker 1>take your crypto back out, then it goes back onto

0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the blockchain and moves back to your wallet. But there's

0:30:37.840 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 1>never the trading that happens, any of the market activity

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:43.960
<v Speaker 1>that happens. That's totally opaque. To let it we start

0:30:44.080 --> 0:30:47.400
<v Speaker 1>with the details. You mentioned that you saw there were

0:30:47.440 --> 0:30:50.600
<v Speaker 1>more links between f t X, you believed in Celsius

0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 1>than perhaps people appreciated. What did you first see there? Yeah,

0:30:54.760 --> 0:30:59.280
<v Speaker 1>so for people who aren't familiar, Celsius was a lending platform.

0:30:59.400 --> 0:31:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Basically it allowed you to do was either deposit crypto

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:05.720
<v Speaker 1>and earn yield on it kind of like a savings account,

0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>or you could borrow against your crypto. You could borrow

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars against a bitcoin, and then what Celsius would do

0:31:10.640 --> 0:31:16.640
<v Speaker 1>is rehypothecate those assets into various supposed yield yield earning strategies.

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:19.080
<v Speaker 1>And it turned out that what they were doing wasn't

0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:21.360
<v Speaker 1>actually profitable, and they collapsed. And there's a lot of

0:31:21.400 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 1>allegations about kind of what was going on in that

0:31:23.640 --> 0:31:26.040
<v Speaker 1>company that are still being kind of figured out. But

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:28.640
<v Speaker 1>what I noticed, among other things, was that in June

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>they froze. They froze withdrawals, so like all their customers

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 1>could no longer withdraw their funds. And then there was

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:36.640
<v Speaker 1>a month period of time between June and July where

0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 1>the company was engaging in a significant number of transactions

0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 1>on the blockchain, and then in July they filed for bankruptcy.

0:31:44.320 --> 0:31:46.160
<v Speaker 1>And what I found was that they had sent hundreds

0:31:46.200 --> 0:31:49.000
<v Speaker 1>of millions of dollars worth of assets from their wallets

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:51.720
<v Speaker 1>to the ft X exchange, and then in return, it

0:31:51.760 --> 0:31:54.120
<v Speaker 1>seemed like they had received about a billion dollars in

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:56.560
<v Speaker 1>USDC from that exchange and used it to pay off

0:31:56.600 --> 0:31:59.920
<v Speaker 1>various debts. According to the bankruptcy filing, celsius od ft

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:03.000
<v Speaker 1>X about a hundred and eight million dollars, and apparently

0:32:03.080 --> 0:32:05.680
<v Speaker 1>that loan was also discharged in that time period. So

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 1>my concern was that there were some very questionable transfers

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:11.120
<v Speaker 1>happening that we're within the ninety day period prior to

0:32:11.160 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 1>filing for bankruptcy that seemed to me to be preferential transfers,

0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:16.480
<v Speaker 1>although you know, I'll let the lawyers figure that one out.

0:32:16.600 --> 0:32:18.920
<v Speaker 1>And additionally, just the opaqueness of what they were doing

0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:21.160
<v Speaker 1>with those funds. So I started looking into that, and

0:32:21.240 --> 0:32:24.120
<v Speaker 1>then there's a number of other connections to I mean, Celsius.

0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 1>One of their main shareholders was the Tether stable Coin Company,

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:30.680
<v Speaker 1>and that was also very closely tied to ft X

0:32:30.760 --> 0:32:33.959
<v Speaker 1>and Alimator Research, So there are multiple ties between these

0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>companies that go back number of years. It seems like

0:32:37.240 --> 0:32:41.760
<v Speaker 1>there were a few months between Celsius experiencing problems and

0:32:42.520 --> 0:32:45.560
<v Speaker 1>all the ft X issues sort of coming home to roost.

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Why do you think it took a while? Well, I

0:32:48.720 --> 0:32:51.960
<v Speaker 1>don't think that Celsius was necessarily material to the collapse

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 1>of Alimta and ft X. They were doing business together

0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:57.520
<v Speaker 1>and FTX actually got their money back, so for them

0:32:57.560 --> 0:33:00.240
<v Speaker 1>it probably worked out pretty well. Um. I think Elma

0:33:00.440 --> 0:33:02.400
<v Speaker 1>was a party to the bankruptcy and is own something

0:33:02.480 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 1>like ten or eleven million dollars from Celsius, But relatively

0:33:05.320 --> 0:33:07.080
<v Speaker 1>the amount of money that they apparently got paid back,

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:10.280
<v Speaker 1>it's not very significant. What appears what happened with Alameda,

0:33:10.600 --> 0:33:12.160
<v Speaker 1>and we don't actually know. I mean, honestly, I don't

0:33:12.160 --> 0:33:14.640
<v Speaker 1>want to speculate at this point. I still can't imagine

0:33:14.720 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>how they managed to lose the amount of money that

0:33:17.720 --> 0:33:19.560
<v Speaker 1>they're saying that they lost. I mean, eight to ten

0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:23.240
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars is a lot of money. Celsius by comparison,

0:33:23.720 --> 0:33:25.800
<v Speaker 1>is maybe three billion dollars to four billion dollars in

0:33:25.840 --> 0:33:28.120
<v Speaker 1>the whole. So it's this is a it's a it's

0:33:28.160 --> 0:33:30.720
<v Speaker 1>a massive loss, and nobody, I think it knows entirely

0:33:30.840 --> 0:33:33.719
<v Speaker 1>yet where the where the money went in terms of FDx. Right,

0:33:33.880 --> 0:33:35.880
<v Speaker 1>So just on this note, I mean, this was one

0:33:35.920 --> 0:33:38.640
<v Speaker 1>of the things that I think was surprising for a

0:33:38.760 --> 0:33:41.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of people, which is, you know, we all listen

0:33:41.640 --> 0:33:44.000
<v Speaker 1>to Sam Bankman Freed when he was on this podcast

0:33:44.120 --> 0:33:47.360
<v Speaker 1>describe yield farming as the sort of magical money box,

0:33:48.000 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 1>but he was describing the business of crypto and we

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:55.520
<v Speaker 1>sort of thought, well, you know, he's operating an exchange

0:33:55.840 --> 0:33:58.880
<v Speaker 1>where people are trading these things and that's how he's

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:03.680
<v Speaker 1>making his money, and that must be incredibly profitable, And

0:34:03.800 --> 0:34:07.560
<v Speaker 1>it turns out it wasn't. Where do we actually think

0:34:08.080 --> 0:34:11.560
<v Speaker 1>the money went? Well, I mean, we know for a

0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 1>fact at this point, we know that a large portion

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:17.640
<v Speaker 1>of user assets ended up going to Sam Bankment Fred's

0:34:17.640 --> 0:34:21.040
<v Speaker 1>trading firm, which was Elevated Research. Where it goes from

0:34:21.080 --> 0:34:24.239
<v Speaker 1>there is, uh, the eight to ten billion dollar question.

0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:26.400
<v Speaker 1>I guess they were doing a number of different things

0:34:26.480 --> 0:34:28.080
<v Speaker 1>with the funds. We know that they were investing in

0:34:28.120 --> 0:34:30.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of different venture opportunities, you can call them

0:34:31.200 --> 0:34:34.000
<v Speaker 1>various crypto projects that never seemed to work out. I

0:34:34.040 --> 0:34:37.880
<v Speaker 1>think five million went to some AI research nonprofit. You know,

0:34:37.920 --> 0:34:40.439
<v Speaker 1>obviously they weren't spending a lot of money on advertising

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:43.960
<v Speaker 1>and on political contributions. So I mean, I don't think

0:34:43.960 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 1>anyone's come close to accounting for the amount of money

0:34:46.600 --> 0:34:48.640
<v Speaker 1>that's apparently missing here, but we know at least where

0:34:48.680 --> 0:34:50.360
<v Speaker 1>some of it went. The question is, yeah, I mean,

0:34:50.520 --> 0:34:52.560
<v Speaker 1>so were they profitable? I mean, you can look at

0:34:52.560 --> 0:34:54.880
<v Speaker 1>coin bases earnings and that just as a disclosure, I

0:34:54.960 --> 0:34:57.640
<v Speaker 1>am shortcoin based, so my opinions about that company are

0:34:57.760 --> 0:35:00.120
<v Speaker 1>colored by that position. But I mean, coin bay has

0:35:00.160 --> 0:35:02.200
<v Speaker 1>been losing a substantial amount of mine in the last year.

0:35:02.520 --> 0:35:05.120
<v Speaker 1>Were they actually profitable? As a very good question, and

0:35:05.239 --> 0:35:07.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, the thing to remember too, is that FTX

0:35:07.080 --> 0:35:10.920
<v Speaker 1>always build themselves as sort of the the exchange for

0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:15.520
<v Speaker 1>institutional institutional traders. Like there was retail involved, but a

0:35:15.600 --> 0:35:18.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of the volume was supposedly these institutional people who

0:35:18.160 --> 0:35:21.640
<v Speaker 1>are playing on there, and so they're their actual revenue

0:35:21.640 --> 0:35:23.880
<v Speaker 1>from that would have been much lower than what somebody

0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:26.759
<v Speaker 1>with primarily a retail customer base would make. So's it's

0:35:26.760 --> 0:35:28.879
<v Speaker 1>actually very questionable if they were ever really making money

0:35:29.000 --> 0:35:33.160
<v Speaker 1>or not. That's a really interesting observation, and it's just,

0:35:33.320 --> 0:35:37.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's something that come up with coin based specifically. Obviously,

0:35:37.200 --> 0:35:39.920
<v Speaker 1>as you know, if you're short it, this idea that

0:35:40.160 --> 0:35:43.960
<v Speaker 1>institutional clients are way less profitable than retail clients is

0:35:44.000 --> 0:35:46.800
<v Speaker 1>something that Jim Chanos has talked a lot about. So

0:35:46.920 --> 0:35:50.760
<v Speaker 1>the fact that f t X was to institutionally focused

0:35:51.160 --> 0:35:54.359
<v Speaker 1>would be a suggestion that, you know, it's margins even

0:35:54.680 --> 0:35:57.800
<v Speaker 1>in the best case scenario, we're pretty slim. Let's go

0:35:57.920 --> 0:36:00.600
<v Speaker 1>back to just La Meta for a can. I think

0:36:00.640 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 1>the perception was that, you know, it was a profitable

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:07.080
<v Speaker 1>market making firm and that maybe it had some leg

0:36:07.200 --> 0:36:10.880
<v Speaker 1>up by dint of its relationship with f t X.

0:36:11.280 --> 0:36:14.160
<v Speaker 1>What is it that first cut your attention and get

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:18.520
<v Speaker 1>you thinking that maybe it wasn't all sound with Alameda specifically.

0:36:19.080 --> 0:36:21.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm a very skeptical person when it comes to crypto.

0:36:21.160 --> 0:36:23.279
<v Speaker 1>I agree, I view most of these things is very

0:36:23.400 --> 0:36:26.759
<v Speaker 1>very very questionable operations, that many of them, most of

0:36:26.800 --> 0:36:28.960
<v Speaker 1>them are probably losing money and engaging in things that

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:31.800
<v Speaker 1>aren't very savory. But of all the people, I actually

0:36:31.840 --> 0:36:34.560
<v Speaker 1>didn't think that maybe if anybody was making money, it

0:36:34.640 --> 0:36:37.000
<v Speaker 1>was Alameda, because everybody always said they were the smartest

0:36:37.040 --> 0:36:38.880
<v Speaker 1>guys in the room. To make a reference to my

0:36:38.920 --> 0:36:41.520
<v Speaker 1>favorite documentary of all time. When I really started thinking

0:36:41.560 --> 0:36:44.600
<v Speaker 1>there was something wrong was when all of these firms

0:36:44.640 --> 0:36:48.960
<v Speaker 1>started failing, like block fi Um and Voyager and f

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:51.520
<v Speaker 1>t X was suddenly stepping in and Alameda was stepping

0:36:51.560 --> 0:36:54.520
<v Speaker 1>in and bailing these companies out. And I knew enough

0:36:54.560 --> 0:36:56.759
<v Speaker 1>about how these firms operated and how how big the

0:36:56.840 --> 0:36:59.360
<v Speaker 1>holes were to just think there was no reason for

0:36:59.440 --> 0:37:01.239
<v Speaker 1>them to do that would make any sense. I mean,

0:37:01.640 --> 0:37:03.880
<v Speaker 1>these companies, like the names of these companies are worthless

0:37:03.880 --> 0:37:06.000
<v Speaker 1>now because they've shown that they did a very poor

0:37:06.080 --> 0:37:08.200
<v Speaker 1>job of handling people's money. It's not somebody's gonna want

0:37:08.200 --> 0:37:09.839
<v Speaker 1>to invest again in Block Fight once they find out

0:37:09.840 --> 0:37:11.800
<v Speaker 1>that they went in solvent because they were lending to

0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:14.520
<v Speaker 1>what as allegedly at ponzi scam, the three three year

0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:16.960
<v Speaker 1>olds capital, So it wasn't like he was getting any

0:37:17.040 --> 0:37:19.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of advantage by doing that, And so my question

0:37:20.040 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 1>was was he just trying to get ahold of the

0:37:21.520 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 1>user assets or was he trying to cover up debt

0:37:25.320 --> 0:37:27.640
<v Speaker 1>that Alimada had to those to those platforms. And it

0:37:27.680 --> 0:37:29.960
<v Speaker 1>seems like it's the latter case. That both of those

0:37:30.000 --> 0:37:33.880
<v Speaker 1>platforms held large amounts of these liquid tokens that Alameda

0:37:34.160 --> 0:37:37.279
<v Speaker 1>owned and that FTX had issued, and that basically they

0:37:37.280 --> 0:37:39.560
<v Speaker 1>were trying to protect themselves from getting liquidated on all

0:37:39.640 --> 0:37:41.960
<v Speaker 1>of that. So basically it was in protecting himself and

0:37:42.040 --> 0:37:43.839
<v Speaker 1>that's what kind of initially made me think there's something

0:37:43.920 --> 0:37:45.839
<v Speaker 1>wrong here. I didn't know how bad it was until

0:37:45.840 --> 0:37:48.800
<v Speaker 1>I saw their balance sheet, though. Sorry just to be

0:37:48.960 --> 0:37:51.799
<v Speaker 1>clear on that last point, because I think that's really key,

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:54.800
<v Speaker 1>This idea that some of these other firms held on

0:37:55.080 --> 0:38:00.239
<v Speaker 1>their books assets that Almada didn't want liquidated. Was that public? Yes,

0:38:00.400 --> 0:38:02.680
<v Speaker 1>that's public, that's in that's in the Voyager. I can't

0:38:02.680 --> 0:38:04.160
<v Speaker 1>remember what doc at number, but it is in the

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:07.279
<v Speaker 1>Voyage of bankruptcy filing is part of the There was

0:38:07.280 --> 0:38:11.080
<v Speaker 1>an agreement for FTS two or elimated to receive their

0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:13.839
<v Speaker 1>collateral back and payback the loans that they had taken out,

0:38:13.920 --> 0:38:16.800
<v Speaker 1>and it was all F T T and serum tokens,

0:38:16.840 --> 0:38:19.840
<v Speaker 1>which are the tokens that I and coin does showed

0:38:19.880 --> 0:38:23.399
<v Speaker 1>were kind of the albatrosses around their neck on their

0:38:23.400 --> 0:38:27.760
<v Speaker 1>balance sheet. So the Coin Desk report sort of kicked

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:30.480
<v Speaker 1>all of this into high gear. And there was you know,

0:38:30.640 --> 0:38:34.000
<v Speaker 1>speculation and research before then, including some of the work

0:38:34.080 --> 0:38:37.000
<v Speaker 1>that you did. But when that came out, I mean,

0:38:37.200 --> 0:38:41.719
<v Speaker 1>things happened very very quickly after that. What's been your

0:38:41.960 --> 0:38:45.840
<v Speaker 1>just personal experience of the past ten days or so.

0:38:46.600 --> 0:38:48.719
<v Speaker 1>So Coin Desk grew at their article, I believe. On

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:52.080
<v Speaker 1>the second I had my own information that suggested basically

0:38:52.120 --> 0:38:53.360
<v Speaker 1>the same thing they had said, and I had a

0:38:53.400 --> 0:38:55.960
<v Speaker 1>little bit more information about exactly how much of the

0:38:56.040 --> 0:38:59.080
<v Speaker 1>other holdings they had, which was interesting to find out.

0:38:59.560 --> 0:39:01.799
<v Speaker 1>And so on the fourth I published my article which

0:39:02.320 --> 0:39:05.080
<v Speaker 1>basically just showed took it took the acquaintance article step

0:39:05.120 --> 0:39:07.120
<v Speaker 1>further and said instead of just saying they have this

0:39:07.239 --> 0:39:09.400
<v Speaker 1>much in these tokens, my question was how much of

0:39:09.440 --> 0:39:12.080
<v Speaker 1>these tokens actually worth and it's pretty easy to show

0:39:12.120 --> 0:39:15.480
<v Speaker 1>that they were in all practical senses worthless because nobody

0:39:15.520 --> 0:39:18.520
<v Speaker 1>else owned them except Alameda, and the market was entirely

0:39:18.560 --> 0:39:20.680
<v Speaker 1>controlled by this company, and they were basically faking an

0:39:20.800 --> 0:39:23.160
<v Speaker 1>entire market. So that came on the fourth it kind

0:39:23.200 --> 0:39:25.160
<v Speaker 1>of went viral, which was kind of cool. And then

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.640
<v Speaker 1>a couple of days after that was when the head

0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:29.799
<v Speaker 1>of finance announced that he was going to liquidate all

0:39:29.840 --> 0:39:32.680
<v Speaker 1>of their assets in this ft T token, which was

0:39:32.719 --> 0:39:35.120
<v Speaker 1>some five sixty million or more worth of it. And

0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:37.040
<v Speaker 1>that's that's the point when it really kicked off the

0:39:37.239 --> 0:39:39.320
<v Speaker 1>bank rund on FTX. And then the thing was that

0:39:39.400 --> 0:39:41.359
<v Speaker 1>they were fighting a battle on two fronts, right, They

0:39:41.400 --> 0:39:44.880
<v Speaker 1>had to simultaneously pay people back their money, and then

0:39:44.880 --> 0:39:46.520
<v Speaker 1>they also had to keep the price of this token

0:39:46.640 --> 0:39:49.000
<v Speaker 1>up because they had levered themselves on this totally a

0:39:49.080 --> 0:39:51.799
<v Speaker 1>liquid asset, so they couldn't win that. Here's the thing,

0:39:51.880 --> 0:39:53.799
<v Speaker 1>Like I, like I said, I'm a very suspicious person

0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:55.879
<v Speaker 1>by nature. When I saw their balance sheet, I knew,

0:39:56.000 --> 0:39:58.480
<v Speaker 1>I knew based on the information I had, I knew

0:39:58.520 --> 0:40:00.680
<v Speaker 1>that they were in very serious trouble. Sorry, when you

0:40:00.760 --> 0:40:03.200
<v Speaker 1>say they just to be clear, do you mean Alimata,

0:40:03.239 --> 0:40:07.239
<v Speaker 1>Speciflimta and FTX. Yeah. And the thing to remember for

0:40:07.520 --> 0:40:10.880
<v Speaker 1>people listening is that for years, Sam bankman Fried and

0:40:10.920 --> 0:40:14.640
<v Speaker 1>others have always alleged or stated that Alimta and FTX

0:40:14.680 --> 0:40:16.880
<v Speaker 1>were totally separate entities, despite the fact that they were

0:40:16.880 --> 0:40:19.120
<v Speaker 1>owned by the same person. The argument was that their

0:40:19.200 --> 0:40:22.320
<v Speaker 1>leadership is different, they don't share information, they don't share assets,

0:40:22.480 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 1>they are separate companies. And clearly that was not the

0:40:25.000 --> 0:40:27.520
<v Speaker 1>case because they actually filed for bankrupcy together a couple

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:30.080
<v Speaker 1>of days ago, so they were one and the same.

0:40:30.280 --> 0:40:32.240
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, so they were fighting a battle on two fronts.

0:40:32.360 --> 0:40:34.960
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, like I was saying before, I knew

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:37.520
<v Speaker 1>that they were in trouble based on looking at their financials,

0:40:37.600 --> 0:40:41.080
<v Speaker 1>but I didn't realize the extent to which they had

0:40:41.480 --> 0:40:44.040
<v Speaker 1>lost customer assets and the whole that they were in.

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:46.120
<v Speaker 1>I didn't think they would go down as quickly as

0:40:46.120 --> 0:40:48.359
<v Speaker 1>they did, for sure, But very shortly after that they

0:40:48.400 --> 0:40:51.920
<v Speaker 1>were insolvent and froze froze withdrawals, and from there on

0:40:52.040 --> 0:40:53.799
<v Speaker 1>we kind of know what happened. And I guess we're

0:40:53.840 --> 0:40:55.920
<v Speaker 1>gonna find out who else has a lot of exposure

0:40:55.920 --> 0:40:57.800
<v Speaker 1>to this thing. Just on that note, you kind of

0:40:57.880 --> 0:41:00.239
<v Speaker 1>touched on this already. But one of the big walking

0:41:00.320 --> 0:41:03.880
<v Speaker 1>points now is that, well, this isn't a failure of crypto.

0:41:04.280 --> 0:41:08.040
<v Speaker 1>This is a failure of a centralized exchange. And you know,

0:41:08.280 --> 0:41:11.879
<v Speaker 1>real crypto is decentralized, and you should own your own

0:41:11.960 --> 0:41:15.000
<v Speaker 1>keys and run your own node and you know, only

0:41:15.040 --> 0:41:17.680
<v Speaker 1>trade through unite swap or whatever. Is that a valid

0:41:17.960 --> 0:41:23.200
<v Speaker 1>argument to make? Here is the problem the centralized entities

0:41:23.280 --> 0:41:27.320
<v Speaker 1>who act badly, or is the problem something fundamental about

0:41:27.400 --> 0:41:30.680
<v Speaker 1>crypto and it's tech. So here's my answer to that question.

0:41:30.840 --> 0:41:32.719
<v Speaker 1>I've I've had to answer that question a few times

0:41:32.719 --> 0:41:35.719
<v Speaker 1>in the last week. My opinion about crypto is I'm

0:41:35.760 --> 0:41:39.279
<v Speaker 1>fairly negative. I'm fairly skeptical. But I think arguments about

0:41:39.320 --> 0:41:42.000
<v Speaker 1>whether or not the blockchain technology or bitcoin has any

0:41:42.080 --> 0:41:44.440
<v Speaker 1>intrinsic value can be set to one side because the

0:41:44.520 --> 0:41:48.040
<v Speaker 1>fact is that regardless of whether or not it's cryptos

0:41:48.040 --> 0:41:50.759
<v Speaker 1>fault or centralized exchanges fault, the fact of the matter

0:41:50.960 --> 0:41:53.680
<v Speaker 1>is most of the people involved in this ecosystem at

0:41:53.719 --> 0:41:57.160
<v Speaker 1>this point are transacting through centralized exchanges. All the prices

0:41:57.160 --> 0:42:00.480
<v Speaker 1>are determined by centralized exchanges. Centralized exchange hold most of

0:42:00.520 --> 0:42:04.799
<v Speaker 1>the assets and are controlling the entire market. So regardless

0:42:04.920 --> 0:42:08.719
<v Speaker 1>of whatever is good or bad about the crypto, in

0:42:08.800 --> 0:42:11.760
<v Speaker 1>its essence, there's a very very very very big problem

0:42:11.880 --> 0:42:14.759
<v Speaker 1>here that defines the industry. In my opinion, I don't

0:42:14.760 --> 0:42:18.160
<v Speaker 1>think there's you know how many people. The number of

0:42:18.160 --> 0:42:20.319
<v Speaker 1>people who own crypto on these exchanges and don't even

0:42:20.360 --> 0:42:22.200
<v Speaker 1>know how to pull them pull the assets off into

0:42:22.280 --> 0:42:28.160
<v Speaker 1>their own wallet is unbelievable. It's unbelievable. So to say

0:42:28.200 --> 0:42:30.880
<v Speaker 1>it's a specific problem, it's only Sam, it's only Uh,

0:42:31.520 --> 0:42:34.000
<v Speaker 1>it's only this one exchange, it's only this one lending platform.

0:42:34.440 --> 0:42:36.040
<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to find out that it is

0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:39.759
<v Speaker 1>a an industry ride problem because ultimately none of these

0:42:39.840 --> 0:42:42.279
<v Speaker 1>things produce anything of value. All they do is they

0:42:42.360 --> 0:42:45.120
<v Speaker 1>trade money in a circle, and that money has to

0:42:45.200 --> 0:42:47.560
<v Speaker 1>leave the system eventually. And what we're going to find

0:42:47.600 --> 0:42:49.000
<v Speaker 1>out is that there is much less money in the

0:42:49.080 --> 0:42:51.120
<v Speaker 1>system now than there was when it started, and a

0:42:51.160 --> 0:42:52.359
<v Speaker 1>lot of people are not gonna be able to exit

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:54.480
<v Speaker 1>the system without losing a lot of their money. I'm

0:42:54.520 --> 0:42:57.239
<v Speaker 1>so glad you said that, because I keep seeing these

0:42:57.280 --> 0:43:02.200
<v Speaker 1>discussions on Twitter and alto the solution is decentralized exchanges

0:43:02.320 --> 0:43:04.520
<v Speaker 1>or just holding your own keys to etcetera. And the

0:43:04.680 --> 0:43:07.479
<v Speaker 1>main chain auditing is the new one, and maybe there's

0:43:07.520 --> 0:43:10.640
<v Speaker 1>some truth to that, but I'm also surprised how rarely

0:43:10.760 --> 0:43:13.000
<v Speaker 1>I hear what you said is like, why don't you

0:43:13.080 --> 0:43:16.000
<v Speaker 1>make a product of the point And you would not

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:18.880
<v Speaker 1>have these same problems if there were sort of like

0:43:19.520 --> 0:43:23.280
<v Speaker 1>coins and platforms that solved real problems, that had revenue

0:43:23.320 --> 0:43:26.840
<v Speaker 1>that wasn't tied to speculation, that had real businesses. And

0:43:26.960 --> 0:43:29.920
<v Speaker 1>so to my mind, it almost doesn't matter centralized decentralized

0:43:30.160 --> 0:43:33.920
<v Speaker 1>if there is no naturally natural pull and revenue. I

0:43:33.960 --> 0:43:37.760
<v Speaker 1>want to ask another question, though, which is why couldn't

0:43:37.880 --> 0:43:40.080
<v Speaker 1>in your view, f t X have just let element

0:43:40.160 --> 0:43:42.560
<v Speaker 1>to go. Okay, it was like blowing up. The balance

0:43:42.600 --> 0:43:45.480
<v Speaker 1>sheet was wrecked. Could FTX have just say, you know

0:43:45.560 --> 0:43:48.000
<v Speaker 1>what this are trading arm blew up, but we still

0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:51.319
<v Speaker 1>have an exchange. No, because they were trading with their

0:43:51.360 --> 0:43:55.640
<v Speaker 1>customers money. They took their customers assets. You could literally

0:43:55.680 --> 0:43:58.960
<v Speaker 1>watch as as as they were paying out withdrawals, you

0:43:59.000 --> 0:44:02.520
<v Speaker 1>could watch the fun is returning. Through Elimator research addresses.

0:44:02.600 --> 0:44:06.000
<v Speaker 1>This is confirmed by multiple individuals. They had taken the funds.

0:44:06.040 --> 0:44:08.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they've essentially admitted to that at this point.

0:44:08.480 --> 0:44:10.320
<v Speaker 1>That's why there's a hole there, I mean, because you

0:44:10.400 --> 0:44:12.960
<v Speaker 1>have to remember, part of the reason that crypto is

0:44:13.440 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 1>is what it is, is that people are so against

0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.200
<v Speaker 1>the traditional banking system and fractional banking and all that stuff,

0:44:18.480 --> 0:44:21.040
<v Speaker 1>and these exchanges are supposed to operate as fully capitalized.

0:44:21.239 --> 0:44:23.480
<v Speaker 1>They're not supposed to be playing around with their customers assets,

0:44:23.800 --> 0:44:25.719
<v Speaker 1>and that's exactly what they were doing. And you know,

0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:28.359
<v Speaker 1>mean FTX is offering yield on their customer's assets as well,

0:44:28.400 --> 0:44:30.919
<v Speaker 1>which is I mean obviously a red flag that they're

0:44:31.000 --> 0:44:33.480
<v Speaker 1>doing something more than just holding onto the assets and

0:44:33.640 --> 0:44:36.560
<v Speaker 1>keeping them there for for safe keeping. Just to be clear,

0:44:36.960 --> 0:44:41.759
<v Speaker 1>your perception or your view is that the transference of

0:44:41.840 --> 0:44:44.719
<v Speaker 1>customer assets to elimated, which going on for a very

0:44:44.800 --> 0:44:47.600
<v Speaker 1>long time, that is what everything points to. I think

0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:49.479
<v Speaker 1>there's been a fair amount of reporting at that point

0:44:49.560 --> 0:44:52.520
<v Speaker 1>that I mean, I saw it myself, but yeah, there's

0:44:52.520 --> 0:44:54.800
<v Speaker 1>been a lot of other reporting as well that shows

0:44:55.440 --> 0:44:57.680
<v Speaker 1>that the money came back through their wallets, and if

0:44:57.719 --> 0:44:59.080
<v Speaker 1>you look at where the money went, it went to

0:44:59.160 --> 0:45:01.640
<v Speaker 1>their wallets, what they did with it after that nobody's

0:45:01.640 --> 0:45:04.440
<v Speaker 1>figured out yet. That's a very massive problem to figure out,

0:45:04.480 --> 0:45:07.279
<v Speaker 1>probably far beyond my abilities. But yeah, I mean they

0:45:07.760 --> 0:45:12.000
<v Speaker 1>absolutely were. There's no there's no excuse. Again, there's no excuse.

0:45:12.040 --> 0:45:14.040
<v Speaker 1>If you look at f t X as user agreements,

0:45:14.320 --> 0:45:16.480
<v Speaker 1>they weren't supposed to be doing that with the customer's assets.

0:45:16.480 --> 0:45:18.080
<v Speaker 1>They were supposed to hold onto the assets and keep

0:45:18.120 --> 0:45:20.960
<v Speaker 1>them safe and if the customers wanted to leave. And

0:45:21.040 --> 0:45:22.640
<v Speaker 1>that's the thing now is there's a lot of other

0:45:22.680 --> 0:45:25.600
<v Speaker 1>exchanges facing very big withdrawal pressure. The fact is all

0:45:25.600 --> 0:45:27.040
<v Speaker 1>of them should be able to give back all of

0:45:27.080 --> 0:45:30.160
<v Speaker 1>the money and be fine. They shouldn't have any problem

0:45:30.239 --> 0:45:31.759
<v Speaker 1>with that. And if they do have a problem with that,

0:45:31.880 --> 0:45:33.360
<v Speaker 1>that means they were doing something with the money that

0:45:33.360 --> 0:45:36.480
<v Speaker 1>they weren't supposed to be doing. Right. So, if it

0:45:36.640 --> 0:45:37.880
<v Speaker 1>is true, if you look at the f t X

0:45:38.000 --> 0:45:41.080
<v Speaker 1>user agreement, like it says specifically, we will not lend

0:45:41.160 --> 0:45:46.400
<v Speaker 1>out the cryptocurrency that we custody. So okay, two quick questions. One, overall,

0:45:46.760 --> 0:45:50.920
<v Speaker 1>how damaging is this for crypto given that you know

0:45:51.640 --> 0:45:55.640
<v Speaker 1>part of Crypto's raised on Dutch I guess was to

0:45:56.239 --> 0:45:59.400
<v Speaker 1>reform the financial system in a way that would avoid

0:45:59.640 --> 0:46:02.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these problems. And then secondly, what are

0:46:02.920 --> 0:46:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you watching out for in terms of contagion. So I'm

0:46:06.040 --> 0:46:07.920
<v Speaker 1>going to disagree with you a little bit. I think

0:46:07.960 --> 0:46:10.480
<v Speaker 1>that that's the narrative for crypto is that it's there

0:46:10.520 --> 0:46:14.799
<v Speaker 1>to change the financial system and offer individual responsibility alternative

0:46:14.880 --> 0:46:20.600
<v Speaker 1>to the central banking world, and you know, inflation free alternative,

0:46:20.680 --> 0:46:25.200
<v Speaker 1>and that's like gold or something in practical terms. Most

0:46:25.239 --> 0:46:27.360
<v Speaker 1>of the people that have gotten involved in crypto in

0:46:27.400 --> 0:46:29.600
<v Speaker 1>the last year and a half or so are not

0:46:29.760 --> 0:46:31.800
<v Speaker 1>people who care about that narrative. They're people who just

0:46:31.840 --> 0:46:34.239
<v Speaker 1>want to get rich. It's just like any of the

0:46:34.440 --> 0:46:36.480
<v Speaker 1>gambling that's going on the stock market is the same thing.

0:46:37.040 --> 0:46:39.200
<v Speaker 1>Mostly people don't really care about that narrative. The number

0:46:39.200 --> 0:46:40.600
<v Speaker 1>of people in this in this space they actually care

0:46:40.640 --> 0:46:43.320
<v Speaker 1>about that narrative is relatively small. I think that this

0:46:43.440 --> 0:46:46.160
<v Speaker 1>is going to have a tremendous impact, and we're just

0:46:46.200 --> 0:46:49.799
<v Speaker 1>starting to see that because a couple of reasons. Number One,

0:46:50.480 --> 0:46:54.279
<v Speaker 1>f t X, because of Sam's spending on advertising, is

0:46:54.360 --> 0:46:57.320
<v Speaker 1>one of the most recognizable firms in the entire I

0:46:57.360 --> 0:46:59.399
<v Speaker 1>hate calling an industry because it's not productive, but I'll

0:46:59.440 --> 0:47:01.120
<v Speaker 1>call it into straight He had his name on the

0:47:01.320 --> 0:47:03.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I swear I can't get over it. He

0:47:03.120 --> 0:47:05.960
<v Speaker 1>had his name of ft X on the umpire uniforms

0:47:06.000 --> 0:47:08.080
<v Speaker 1>for the Major League Baseball I mean he literally had

0:47:08.080 --> 0:47:10.320
<v Speaker 1>his name on the regulators. You know, he has his

0:47:10.400 --> 0:47:12.920
<v Speaker 1>name on one of the most famous stadiums in the country.

0:47:13.239 --> 0:47:15.440
<v Speaker 1>He had one of the most popular athletes in the

0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:19.359
<v Speaker 1>world advertising for him and apparently invested in him. So yeah,

0:47:19.400 --> 0:47:21.719
<v Speaker 1>everybody knows who f t X is, which is why

0:47:21.760 --> 0:47:23.560
<v Speaker 1>obviously the story is getting as much pressed as it is.

0:47:23.920 --> 0:47:25.880
<v Speaker 1>So them failing number one is going to have a

0:47:25.960 --> 0:47:29.560
<v Speaker 1>massive psychological impact both on the people who already owned crypto,

0:47:29.640 --> 0:47:32.440
<v Speaker 1>who are realizing now that maybe they can't trust any

0:47:32.520 --> 0:47:34.800
<v Speaker 1>of these exchanges. It's also going to have a massive

0:47:34.800 --> 0:47:37.800
<v Speaker 1>effect on anyone who hasn't invested yet, because ultimately this

0:47:37.880 --> 0:47:41.120
<v Speaker 1>space depends entirely on new money coming in in order

0:47:41.160 --> 0:47:43.880
<v Speaker 1>to drive prices up. So that's gonna that alone is

0:47:43.880 --> 0:47:46.600
<v Speaker 1>gonna have a massive impact. And then secondly, Sam was

0:47:46.719 --> 0:47:49.120
<v Speaker 1>very close to regulators, He was very close to a

0:47:49.200 --> 0:47:51.279
<v Speaker 1>lot of politicians. He donated. I think he was the

0:47:51.320 --> 0:47:53.920
<v Speaker 1>second largest donor to the Democratic Party this year. This

0:47:54.000 --> 0:47:56.400
<v Speaker 1>election cycle, there's been a lot of politicians who are

0:47:56.440 --> 0:47:58.520
<v Speaker 1>going to have to explain why did I take money

0:47:58.600 --> 0:48:01.080
<v Speaker 1>from somebody who may have been running something that was

0:48:01.680 --> 0:48:04.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, very very very questionable. Let's just put it

0:48:04.160 --> 0:48:05.799
<v Speaker 1>that way. I think that there's gonna be a lot

0:48:05.880 --> 0:48:09.160
<v Speaker 1>more impetus for the regulators and for lawmakers to act

0:48:09.640 --> 0:48:11.719
<v Speaker 1>on what's happening in crypto, and I don't think they're

0:48:11.719 --> 0:48:13.200
<v Speaker 1>going to act in a way that the industry is

0:48:13.239 --> 0:48:17.239
<v Speaker 1>going to enjoy very much. And then in terms of contagion,

0:48:18.160 --> 0:48:23.040
<v Speaker 1>oh uh yeah, everybody, there is no no But I

0:48:23.080 --> 0:48:26.160
<v Speaker 1>mean I mean realistically, I mean number one, this system again,

0:48:26.280 --> 0:48:27.759
<v Speaker 1>like we talked about a little bit earlier, this is

0:48:27.800 --> 0:48:30.720
<v Speaker 1>not a productive system. Ultimately, this is a destructive system.

0:48:30.760 --> 0:48:33.680
<v Speaker 1>There is no money created by what they're doing. There

0:48:33.760 --> 0:48:35.640
<v Speaker 1>is no value created by what they are doing. So

0:48:35.840 --> 0:48:38.040
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a closed system that only gets new money

0:48:38.120 --> 0:48:40.440
<v Speaker 1>from people who believe in in in crypto and one

0:48:40.480 --> 0:48:43.160
<v Speaker 1>invest more so that once has cut off, everybody has

0:48:43.200 --> 0:48:46.480
<v Speaker 1>to fight over whatever liquidity has left. And if it

0:48:46.520 --> 0:48:48.600
<v Speaker 1>turns out other exchanges we're playing the same games as

0:48:48.640 --> 0:48:50.200
<v Speaker 1>Sam was, which it appears that at least some of

0:48:50.239 --> 0:48:52.279
<v Speaker 1>them were doing those playing the same games and moving

0:48:52.320 --> 0:48:54.640
<v Speaker 1>money around in ways that they shouldn't have been doing,

0:48:55.000 --> 0:48:58.319
<v Speaker 1>and people start withdrawing, it's game over. Anybody who lent

0:48:58.400 --> 0:49:01.080
<v Speaker 1>money to Alameda is in trouble. All of the VC

0:49:01.280 --> 0:49:03.920
<v Speaker 1>firms that invested in Alameda and in f t X

0:49:04.120 --> 0:49:06.280
<v Speaker 1>just got burned to the tune of billions of dollars.

0:49:06.840 --> 0:49:08.960
<v Speaker 1>So are they going to be investing any more on

0:49:09.000 --> 0:49:12.120
<v Speaker 1>crypto firms that don't generate income and need constant infusions

0:49:12.120 --> 0:49:14.960
<v Speaker 1>the capital in order to stay afloat. I don't think so.

0:49:15.520 --> 0:49:18.239
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if any exchange going down could have had

0:49:18.280 --> 0:49:20.960
<v Speaker 1>like a systemic effect on on crypto, ft X is

0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:23.279
<v Speaker 1>probably one of the biggest candidates for that. So it's

0:49:23.280 --> 0:49:24.960
<v Speaker 1>gonna be interested to see what happens in the next

0:49:25.000 --> 0:49:27.680
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks. Yeah, for sure. And it does seem

0:49:27.760 --> 0:49:32.080
<v Speaker 1>problematic when your your use cases basically predicated on speculation

0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:35.640
<v Speaker 1>if you don't get influence anymore. James, thank you so

0:49:35.760 --> 0:49:38.600
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Hey, no problems

0:49:38.640 --> 0:49:53.840
<v Speaker 1>if I'm talking to you guys, Tracy. I found that

0:49:53.960 --> 0:49:56.600
<v Speaker 1>conversation to be helpful both in terms of understanding how

0:49:56.719 --> 0:49:59.880
<v Speaker 1>f t X had been perceived prior to the collapse,

0:50:00.239 --> 0:50:03.120
<v Speaker 1>the relationship between f t X l AMDA, and of

0:50:03.239 --> 0:50:05.680
<v Speaker 1>course what those early signs were in terms of collapse.

0:50:06.040 --> 0:50:09.720
<v Speaker 1>And it really did materialize at lightning speed once fears

0:50:09.719 --> 0:50:12.680
<v Speaker 1>of its insolvency started to percolate up right, And I

0:50:12.840 --> 0:50:15.719
<v Speaker 1>do think it's worth noting that within the industry there

0:50:15.840 --> 0:50:19.279
<v Speaker 1>is still this furious discussion about whether the fault was

0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:23.759
<v Speaker 1>crypto itself or whether it was more traditional trad five

0:50:23.840 --> 0:50:28.080
<v Speaker 1>structures that actually imploded. But on some level the debate

0:50:28.320 --> 0:50:32.160
<v Speaker 1>seems really philosophical and one that we will probably be

0:50:32.280 --> 0:50:35.080
<v Speaker 1>talking about for a long time. Right. So in the meantime,

0:50:35.160 --> 0:50:37.680
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow we're going to be going over some of these topics,

0:50:37.760 --> 0:50:41.040
<v Speaker 1>further zooming out of it with our past guest Matt Levine.

0:50:41.360 --> 0:50:43.600
<v Speaker 1>Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This

0:50:43.760 --> 0:50:46.680
<v Speaker 1>has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm

0:50:46.719 --> 0:50:49.960
<v Speaker 1>Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway,

0:50:50.080 --> 0:50:53.320
<v Speaker 1>and I'm Joe Wisenthal following me on Twitter at the Stalwart.

0:50:53.560 --> 0:50:56.560
<v Speaker 1>Follow our guests if Guinny Guy Boy He's at Guinny

0:50:56.640 --> 0:51:00.120
<v Speaker 1>Guy Boy, and James Block at Mike Burgersburg, and be

0:51:00.200 --> 0:51:03.319
<v Speaker 1>sure to follow our producer Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman Arman

0:51:03.440 --> 0:51:06.000
<v Speaker 1>and check out all of our Bloomberg podcasts unto the

0:51:06.080 --> 0:51:09.920
<v Speaker 1>handle at podcasts, and for more odd Lots content, go

0:51:10.000 --> 0:51:13.400
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we post transcripts,

0:51:13.520 --> 0:51:16.120
<v Speaker 1>we blog, and we even have a weekly newsletter that

0:51:16.160 --> 0:51:18.840
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0:51:18.880 --> 0:51:19.320
<v Speaker 1>for listening.