1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: fantasy sport, there is a contest for every fan Fan 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, and welcome to 6 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: the Friday Morning Podcast. Chad Millman my eight or nine 7 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: games where I picked my blazing five from in about 8 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: five minutes. First of all, fake questions, real answers. I 9 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: want to talk about stuff, but I don't want to 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: wait for you to ask me the question. Here we go. 11 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: Dear Colin boy, did Mike Wilbon te Lane kiff On 12 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 1: a new one on PTI the other day? He called 13 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: him a clown, basically said his entire coaching career was 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: a joke. As a famed sports opinionist yourself, would you 15 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: like to give America your thoughts? Well, yeah, I think 16 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: anybody that really follows college football closely knows that Lane 17 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: Kiffin's one of the best offensive guys in football. It's interesting. 18 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: On the front page of ESPN dot com as I'm speaking, 19 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: the top story is how Nick Saban's bold Lane Kiffen 20 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: higher changed Alabama forever. He was a huge, huge success 21 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: in terms of wins at Florida Atlantic, he was a 22 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: huge success at Alabama. And by the way, now that 23 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: we look at the chaotic mess that is USC football, 24 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: he was actually not that bad at US either, Dear Colin. 25 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 1: NFL ratings are up nine percent, while overall TV usage 26 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: declined by nine percent. What does this tell you about 27 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: the future of the NFL and how we consume live sports? 28 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: Ratings are based on two things. How many people are 29 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: watching total people. That's called kume, and how long they 30 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 1: are watching that's called TSL, time spent listening or time 31 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: spent watching. My guess is that nine percent is not 32 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: a dramatic increase in the size of the audience. It 33 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: is directly connected to the increased sports gambling in America. 34 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: It is now being legalized in more and more states, 35 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: so every football season will probably have ten more states 36 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: with legalized sports gambling. What does that mean? Sports gambling 37 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: doesn't get you to just watch games. It gets you 38 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: to watch games that are bad longer, time spent watching, 39 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: time spent listening. So that's a connection, in my opinion, 40 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: to sports gambling. Is that a lot of ratings are 41 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: down across television. But what do we bet in America? 42 00:02:55,960 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: We bet football, NFL football. As it gets more legalized, 43 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: more people gamble, They've got money on games, and they 44 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: watch the games longer. Dear Cohen, in your interview with 45 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: Von Miller on Thursday, which was sin say Chanal Vaughan said, 46 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: Patrick certain, the cornerback from Bama, is the most polished 47 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: rookie he's ever seen. Do you have any other recent 48 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: rookie you'd say was the most polished? You know, the 49 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: first name that comes to mind. How many of you 50 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: remember the Cowboys left tackle from USC, Tyron Smith, twenty 51 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,839 Speaker 1: eleven first round pick. He was a twenty year old 52 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: rookie out of USC, so he was young. He did 53 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: not red shirt. He came right out of high school, 54 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: played three years at USC, and was gone. He was 55 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: the first offensive lineman I ever saw with a six pack, 56 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: six five three twenty that year. Is a rookie. He 57 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: was named starter at right tackle on the first day 58 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: of OTA's He was named the All Rookie team, and 59 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: there was a sense in the NFL middle of the 60 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: first year that you were looking at a Hall of 61 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: Fame offensive lineman, even very good offensive lineman like Piney 62 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: Seul with Detroit look a little uneven out of the gate. 63 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: Tyron Smith, to me, was a top five tackle in 64 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: professional football at twenty years old out of USC. Dear Colin. 65 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: When people think of the best athlete coach duels of 66 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: all time, they usually think Brady and Belichick, Michael Jordan 67 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: and Phil Jackson. But those two relationships are not the same. 68 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: Are they? In fact, they're diametrically opposite, aren't they? Wow? 69 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: What an insightful question, because yes, they're totally different. Belichick 70 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: had to turn an unvarnished quarterback like Brady into a 71 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: superstar with slow, methodical development and assets. Phil had to 72 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: take a mega talent in Michael Jordan and teach him 73 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: to slow down, pass more and be a better team player. 74 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: In the end, I do think there is a reason 75 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: that Brady's career is linked to longevity. In the end, 76 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: Michael burned out fast because he was hard to play with, 77 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: He was hard on himself, and he had sort of 78 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: a relentlessness and an energy that even he couldn't withstand. 79 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: There was a study commission by Belichick at the end 80 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: of Tom Brady's run in New England. This has been documented, 81 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: and it was about Kobe and Michael and Tiger Woods 82 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: and Brady and what they found in the study Belichick 83 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: did the Patriots did is that Tom was unique. He 84 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: was at his best when supported, not ticked off, not 85 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: when challenged. Tom played for the love and the joy 86 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: of the game. Michael to the very end, burned hot, 87 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: trying to prove everybody wrong. Dear Colin, you had about 88 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: a month or so to soak in the fact that 89 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook is now on the Lakers with Lebron How 90 00:05:55,800 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: do you see it going. Russell Westbrook is fine being 91 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: a piece. He was never the piece. Some people are 92 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: not built to be the president. Dick Cheney was built 93 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: to be an advisor to the president, but he doesn't 94 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: have maybe the empathy, the fluidity on camera, the ability 95 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: to galvanize and rally, but he's smart and experienced. Russell 96 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: Westbrook has great energy and great talent. The problem Oklahoma 97 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: City made for years is thinking he was the piece. 98 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant was the greater offensive piece, James Harden was 99 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: the better point guard. Westbrook was just the best athlete, 100 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: and there's always room for an athlete to be a 101 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: piece of an NBA puzzle. All Right, my buddy Chad Milman, 102 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 1: chief content Officer, Action Network already got the bag in 103 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: his life, so it didn't even need to do this, 104 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: but he does because he likes it. So here's the story. 105 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: Every week I bring on eight games. I picked my 106 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: blazing five from these eight. And the part that stinks 107 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: is I've been a sharp for three weeks and I 108 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: keep losing, but that doesn't deter me from my values 109 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: in my compass, and I still see the world the 110 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: same way. So here's my first game. I like Dallas 111 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: minus four and a half against the Panthers, and here's why. 112 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: Now I am concerned. Dallas is on a short week, 113 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: and Caroline has got extra time and Matt rules really clever. 114 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: But Christian McCaffrey is not only the most dynamic offensive 115 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: player they have, he's probably their second most dynamic wide receiver, 116 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: and Chuba Hubbard is not nearly as dynamic. So this game, 117 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: although I do think it will be lower scoring because 118 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense is absolutely better and Carolinas is really 119 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: really good upfront, so I don't think we're going to 120 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: have a shootout here. But Sam Darnold, now this is 121 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: when he reverts to trouble. He is going to have 122 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: to carry the offense on the road against the Dallas 123 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: defense that a gen stat came out this weekend that 124 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: they had different players at nineteen miles an hour led 125 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: the NFL. This is a fast, fast defense with what 126 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: now appears to be an elite corner. I'm going to 127 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: take Dallas to win this by a touchdown. I don't 128 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: think it's a shootout. Carolina's defense is too good, but 129 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: I think Donald will make mistakes, which he's prone to 130 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: do when playing from behind, and I'll take Dallas minus 131 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: four and a half sharp or square square. You're one 132 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: hundred percent right about the total. I think the under 133 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: is generally considered to be the sharp side here, and 134 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: it's where they're going to go. This is a This 135 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: is a really challenging game. Let me get all of 136 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: the pre butt comments out of the way. One hundred 137 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: percent right about Christian McCaffrey. I listened to your radio show, 138 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: which I think is excellent, by the way, and you 139 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: had a guest on I think it was Mark Sanchez, 140 00:08:55,080 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: and you were talking about McCaffrey is so good at 141 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: running roots, probably better at running roots than any running 142 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: back in the league, and that's really valuable, right. It 143 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: makes them so dynamic offensively. In addition to what he 144 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: can do carrying the ball, him being out is a 145 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: big deal. So this becomes one of those plays where 146 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: and you mentioned losing at the beginning, right, there are 147 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: plays you make because you want to be a better 148 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: over the long term, and sometimes they're the right plays, 149 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: and they lose in the moment, but over the long 150 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 1: term they win over the long term, A team with 151 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: the caliber of the defense that the Carolina Panthers have 152 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: covers this game. A team with the caliber of the 153 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: defense the Carolina Panthers have going against a team off 154 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: of a Monday night football game generally covers this game 155 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: to the tune of about fifty six percent. Since two 156 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: thousand and three, Carolina's defense fewest yards per carry allowed. 157 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 1: Carolina's defense fourth fewest passing yards per attempt. So what 158 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 1: I'm looking at is a defense that is going to 159 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: mitigate the cowboy strength, both with Zeke and with Dak 160 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: throwing the ball downfield. So I like the under because 161 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: of all these factors. But I also like the Panthers 162 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: to cover, and so do the wise guy. All Right, 163 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: Colts at Dolphins. I take Miami minus two. I told 164 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: you last week, and I had the right side. I 165 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: think Jacoby Brissette is better than Tuah. They are now 166 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: new rumors via Jay Glazer that they are not into 167 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: Tua and they're looking at John Watson. That would bother Tua. 168 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: I don't think it would bother Jacoby Brissette. He's not 169 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: viewed as the franchise guy. I think he's a bigger, 170 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 1: stronger version of Tua. I thought for long stretches they 171 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: outplayed the Raiders last week. This team is too well coached, 172 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: too strong defensively not to start winning football games. And 173 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: I do not trust the Colts. I do not trust 174 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 1: their run game, their protection. Right now, I don't trust 175 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. This is one of my favorite plays. I 176 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: like Miami minus two to win this game by a touchdown. 177 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: It's one of your favorite I will tell you there 178 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: are I don't know eight nine, twelve, fifteen games, sixteen 179 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: games on the board. Let me tell you something. Not 180 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: only is this not one of my favorite games. On 181 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast, we haven't even like We practically skipped 182 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: over this game because it had so little edge and 183 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: interest from us and from our professional betting friends. There's 184 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: no real edge. It's lined to two. It's handicapped a two. 185 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: Both teams have a really hard time moving the ball. 186 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: Both teams are struggling a quarterback. Both teams have really 187 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: good defenses. Both teams have underperformed. It's a terrible game 188 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: to bet, it's a terrible game to watch. Like, there's nothing, 189 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: there's nothing here. I like to call this with like 190 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: my bookie buddies, we call this the corner TV game 191 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: because like it's terrible, and you put it on the 192 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: smallest screen in the corner of the sports book because 193 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: you know, like really nobody's going to be paying attention 194 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,719 Speaker 1: to it. That's what this game is to me. I 195 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: cannot give you an opinion on this game. Okay, all right, 196 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 1: so let me go to my gross game of the week. 197 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,199 Speaker 1: I like the Jets plus seven against the Titans. You're 198 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: a professional, hundred percent professional right now. Oh my god, 199 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:24,719 Speaker 1: I've never loved you more. Okay, So teams aren't as 200 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: bad as their worst loss, and I don't think the 201 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: Jets will lose like this again. Being shut out is 202 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: hard in the NFL. I think Denver and I've been 203 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: saying this for weeks. Is undervalued. Patrick Surtan von Miller 204 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: told me this week is the most polished rookie he's 205 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: seen in eleven years in the league. Like he's going 206 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 1: to get some Pro Bowl votes. Kyle Fuller already has 207 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: been a Pro bowler. We know they have a pass rush. 208 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: Denver's really good defensively. Playing in Denver in September is 209 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: a recipe for a rookie quarterback for disaster. I think 210 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: the Jets come back com are very viable against a 211 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 1: fairly limited offense, may win outright, but seven's too many. 212 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 1: I take the Jets plus seven. Sometimes you have to 213 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: do bad things in betting. You mentioned gross. This is disgusting. 214 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: This is Bourbon Street, you know, in February disgusting. I've 215 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,599 Speaker 1: actually already bet on the Jets. I bet on the 216 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: Jets money. Line wise, guys are backing the Jets. This 217 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 1: game opened much higher, it's now down to seven. This 218 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: is going to be one of those games. The Titans 219 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: defense is just really bad and for the hope for 220 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: the Jets is that Jamison Crowder comes back and then 221 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball, the Titans. We 222 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 1: saw it last week AJ Brown not playing, Julio Jones 223 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: not playing at the end of the game, Mike Rabel 224 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: at the time saying it was load management. But now 225 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: there's stories about neither Julio Jones or AJ Brown playing 226 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: this weekend. This line, it is just way too big 227 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: in this spot. It is over inflation and the Titans, 228 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: who have won a couple of games in high profile 229 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 1: fashion against teams that the public loves in the cults 230 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: and the Seahawks and the Jets doing everything you just 231 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: said against the Broncos. This is ugly and disgusting, and 232 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: you hold your nose and you do it because Colin, 233 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: you're a professional. After twenty years in the same sideline. 234 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: Tom Brady and Belichick meet this weekend as opponents. It's 235 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: the goat quarterback and the goat head coach, and you 236 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: can be part of the epic showdown with an unbelievable 237 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: odds play on FanDuel Sports book right now, customers can 238 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: win one hundred and fifty bucks and a five dollars bet. 239 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: That's it, one hundred and fifty bucks and a five 240 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: dollar bet if either team scores a touchdown. That's right, 241 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: twenty five to one on any touchdown any time during 242 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: the Tampa New England game. Current line Patriots plus seven. 243 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: You know this is a weird game. Belichick was humiliated. 244 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: I imagine they play a much tighter but Tampa Bay lost. 245 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: I imagine despiden an injury to Scottie Miller. They're more 246 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 1: effective offensively. I would probably go Tampa Bay minus seven. 247 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: Offers like this, though, are just one of the many 248 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: reasons I love FanDuel sports Books, the number one ready 249 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: to sports book app in America. Easy to use, safe 250 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: and secure, fast payouts. Sign up right now FanDuel sports 251 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: Book Today. All you gotta do is use the promo 252 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: code Colin cli Enda tet make your first bet one 253 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: for the history books. Don't forget to use the promo 254 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: code Colin so they know I sent you Max Bonus 255 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five bucks twenty one plus in 256 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee in Virginia 257 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Refund issued as non withdrouwable site credit 258 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: that expires in seven days. Max Reefund ten bucks restricts 259 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: in to plice terms at sportsbook fandel dot com. Same 260 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: game paraly available for multiple sports and all states on 261 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: mobile slash web gambling problem called one hundred gambler visit 262 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: fandel dot com. Slash RG in Colorado, Jersey, and Virginia 263 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: were called one eight hundred and nine with it Indiana 264 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: eight seventy seventy one seventeen for confidential help. In Michigan, 265 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: Tennessee redline is one eight hundred eighty nine nine seven 266 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: eight nine. We're gonna one hundred gamble dot in West 267 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: Virginia or called one hundred next step or text next 268 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: step to five three four two Arizona. All right, I'm 269 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: gonna take Cardinals plus four and a half at the Rams. Now, 270 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: there is an axiom in sports betting if you don't 271 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: know which way to go, which team do you think 272 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: is gonna win? Don't overthink the room. Just do you 273 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: think Arizona is going to beat the Rams? I do, 274 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: and that's why I decided. I went back and forth 275 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: on this. I think four and a half is too 276 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: many for a division game. I think even the Rams 277 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: defense will struggle like the Niners has for years against 278 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: active mobile quarterbacks. Kyler is prone to mistakes, but this 279 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: team can match up on the defensive line. Will give 280 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: Matt Stafford real pressure. The Rams are coming off a 281 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: not only a huge win, but a nearly perfect performance. 282 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: They had a singular penalty. I thought the Rams were unbeatable. 283 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: I thought it was the best game any team in 284 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: the league played all year. Rams over Tampa. I don't 285 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: think you'll duplicate that. I think Arizona goes in. It's 286 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty seven. It's too many points for a 287 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: division rival and an improved division rival. Sharper square, kind 288 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: of square like. And I say this, and we talked 289 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: about this last week, this line at six when it 290 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: opened super sharp to bet the Cardinals, and it's been 291 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: bet down to Rams minus four and a half, and 292 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: it's sort of just lingering there. Chances are it's going 293 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: to get to four because the public is coming in 294 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 1: and betting the Cardinals for a lot of the reasons 295 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: you just said. In the public, and we've talked about 296 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: this too, there's so many new betters coming in who 297 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: are thinking about betting because it's legal in so many 298 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: more states that it's changing the way you have to 299 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: think about how money comes in and how people are betting. 300 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: So I do believe that there's still going to be 301 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: more money coming in and the Cardinals, and when this 302 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: line gets to four, you're going to want to bet 303 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: the Rams. So I'd probably lean Rams right now. It's 304 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 1: really the first defense that Kyler Murray is playing. Tennessee 305 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: hasn't been very good, the Jaguars aren't very good. Minnesota 306 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: isn't very good, right, and so Cliff Kingsbury is at 307 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: a coaching disadvantage in this scenario. He's just not a 308 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: very good coach. They win by the seat of their pants, 309 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 1: not through any kind of genius strategy. I know the 310 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 1: Rams are coming off an emotional win, but their defense. 311 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: You win games like your offense struggles when you come 312 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: off of emotional wins, your defense doesn't struggle. And that 313 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: defense has two Hall of Famers in Jalen Ramsey and 314 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: Aaron Donald. And I just think it's too much for 315 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: the Cardinals. So the Sharps liked it at six. The 316 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,959 Speaker 1: Sharps will like it at Rams minus four. I think 317 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: you're trending in their own direction. I'll take the Giants. 318 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: It's now plus seven and a half. It was eight. 319 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: I liked it more at eight against the Saints. Here's 320 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: why the Giants have led three games, two of them 321 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: should be wins. The Saints have only three quote big 322 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: unquote plays all year, three big plays. They don't have 323 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,479 Speaker 1: a great vertical mention. Jameis Winston is hot and cold. 324 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: The Saints are a better team. But seven and a 325 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: half points is too many for I think I really 326 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,880 Speaker 1: do beyond the penalties. I think the Giants have been 327 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: in all the games they've played, and they were very 328 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: good at the end of last year. They won five 329 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: of eight. So Joe Judge is easy to rip because 330 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: they made that analytics comment. By the way, Belichick said 331 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: two years ago, I use analytics zero percent. But the 332 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: media doesn't have any curs to take on Belichick. It's 333 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: easy to wail away at Joe Judge and seven and 334 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: a half points. This is not a big play offense. 335 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: That game Saints Patriots was about the Saints defense. It's 336 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 1: not a big play offense. Seven and a half points 337 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: is too many. I'd lean the Giants here. First of all, 338 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: Belichick is a liar because he's the one who started 339 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 1: the concept of going forward on fourth down in your 340 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: own territory to try to close out a game when 341 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: he was playing against the Colts and not wanting to 342 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: give Peyton Manning the ball back. That's an analytics play 343 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: number one, number two, one hundred percent the sharp side, 344 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: you are correct. Love the Giants. Here at Action Network, 345 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,719 Speaker 1: we project every line right and so we have this 346 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: line projected at six. The Giants opened at eight, when 347 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: it when at plus eight, that was about a four 348 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: four percent edge. Anything above three percent professional betters are 349 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: going to bet, so at seven and a half, it's 350 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: not quite four, but it's still over three, so it's 351 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: an auto bet for professionals. It's also a massive, massive overreaction. 352 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: The Saints playing really well against Mac Jones and the 353 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: Patriots gets too much credit in the public. Meanwhile, the 354 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,239 Speaker 1: Giants losing at home, which every wise guy knew they 355 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: were going to lose at home because Danny Dimes is 356 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: now four and eleven at home against the spread, but 357 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: he's ten and four on the road against the spread. 358 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 1: This game is on the road. New Orleans was outgained 359 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 1: by New England. They needed to pick six and a 360 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: Jamis heath Hoe for a touchdown to win that game. 361 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: The total here is only forty one. With a line 362 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: at seven and a half and a total of forty one, 363 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 1: it basically means the bookmakers that are expecting a close 364 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: game and they're begging you to take the Giants. All right, 365 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: Broncos Ravens. Through the years, I've never been good at 366 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: Pickham games. Earlier this year we had a Washington Chargers Pickham, 367 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: and I took Washington. When it gets the under a point, 368 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: I considered a Pickham, and well, I'm not good at 369 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 1: these games. I would take Denver at home over Baltimore. 370 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 1: I Baltimore of Denver is the team in the league 371 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: I think is better than we want to acknowledge. Because 372 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater there's a certain narrative on him, and then 373 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 1: in Carolina, Matt Rule, who we all respect, bailed on him, 374 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: and then Sam Darnold looks way better than Teddy Bridgewater. 375 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,200 Speaker 1: But the truth was last year Carolina wasn't nearly this 376 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: good defensively because they were very, very young and they 377 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 1: needed another year in Matt Rule's system. Now all these 378 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: young players really are flourishing with Carolina. So now Sam 379 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: Darnold is not making mistakes because he doesn't play from behind. 380 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater gotten some shootouts with a young defense and 381 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: just wasn't equipped to win those games. I think Teddy 382 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: Bridgewater for this Denver team is really good. They don't 383 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: rely on him. The offensive line I think is the best. 384 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: It got better last year. It's the best in a 385 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,680 Speaker 1: long time. I think they've solved their corner issue from 386 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: last year with Kyle Fuller, who was already a pro 387 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 1: bowler and Patrick Surtan, who Von Miller told me this 388 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 1: week was the most polished rookie he's seen anywhere in 389 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: the league in eleven years. I think Denver wins this 390 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 1: game by a field goal outright sharper square sharp sharp 391 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: sharpitty sharp. When we do the favorites, and Simon Hunter 392 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: is my co host, he's professional better and has done 393 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: this four years. We do the show on Tuesday. As 394 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: we go through every game between Tuesday and Thursday, he 395 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: will get a flood of calls from his colleagues who 396 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: are professional betters, and they will give their opinion on 397 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: the opinions that we had on show. There were two 398 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: games this week that they absolutely loved and agreed with. 399 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 1: Normally they come back and tell us they don't like anything, 400 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: but this week there were two games they loved and 401 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 1: agree with. This was one of them. Denver as right now, 402 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: pick him one. This line could get to Denver plus 403 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 1: one by the time it kicks off, because again, Baltimore 404 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 1: is one of those public teams Lamar Jackson, the way 405 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: they won last week against the Lines, the way they 406 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: won the week before against the Chiefs. People thinking it's 407 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater, he's been recycled. He's not that good that 408 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: they've played teams like the Jets and they just shut 409 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: him out. But it's the Jets. I agree with you, man. 410 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: This Denver team is for real, and Teddy Bridgewater he 411 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: is not someone that professional betters take lightly. He's Teddy covers. 412 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 1: He just covers games, and what you saw against the 413 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: Jets and what you've seen this year. He's actually making plays. 414 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 1: He's not just games by manager. He's making plays, which 415 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: is really interesting. I think this defense can handle what 416 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 1: Baltimore brings because they are so fast and their defensive 417 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: backfield is so good. You're one hundred percent on the 418 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 1: right side here, all right, two more games. I'm not 419 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: going to bet this Packers minus six and a half 420 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 1: hosting the Steelers Green Bay would be my side. I 421 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: think there are problems throughout the course of a season 422 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: that are correctable and then there are problems that are 423 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: non correctable, and I think Big Ben's age and inability 424 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: to move, coupled with the fact that he's never been 425 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: great pre snap, he's got kind of a outdated audible 426 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 1: model there. Pittsburgh's offense is going to be bad the 427 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: rest of the year. And but I do worry about 428 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:56,479 Speaker 1: green Bay coming off a wildly emotional Sunday win. I 429 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 1: would stay away from this game. My side would probably 430 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: be green Bay. The number was seven, I absolutely would 431 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,719 Speaker 1: stay away. At six and a half, that number leads 432 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: me to toward the Packers. Your thoughts, Yeah, the sharp 433 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 1: side here is the Steelers. This is a Rara Mike moment. 434 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,160 Speaker 1: And what we're really going to find out is how 435 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 1: much over the years has Rabro Mike Tomlin been able 436 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: to rally his team because he also had an incredible 437 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 1: quarterback who can overplay against teams when they are considered 438 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 1: to be better. And he is an underdog right because 439 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 1: Ben isn't the guy that he's been for the past 440 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,440 Speaker 1: eighteen years in the NFL and since two thousand and three, 441 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin, these stats are ridiculous. Since two thousand and three, 442 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: no coach has covered as a road dog against winning 443 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: teams more than Mike Tomlin as a road dog period, 444 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin wins outright at a sixty percent clip. As 445 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: a road dog against opponents with the same record or better, 446 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 1: he covers at an eighty percent clip. Right now, this 447 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: line should be about four and a half. That's what 448 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 1: professional betters handicap. It app so the value, the metrics, 449 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: the precedent. All says take the Steelers, but it's an 450 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 1: ugly play, so I don't blame you for wanting to pass. 451 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 1: All right. This is one of my favorite bets of 452 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 1: the week, Chargers minus three over the Raiders, or in 453 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: the week, I thought I'd take the Raiders, but two takeaways. 454 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: The Raiders have twice trailed by fourteen points. The Raiders 455 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 1: have gotten their two toughest games at home. The Raiders 456 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 1: still are inconsistent running the ball. Justin Herbert's Arc, we 457 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: know what the Raiders are. Derek Carr has been in 458 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 1: this league a long time and they've got a lot 459 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: of weapons. There's gonna be a lot of points in 460 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: this game, and this is why I'm comfortable giving up three. 461 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: But when you watch the Chargers play, you're seeing growth 462 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: that's the first big road win for Justin Herbert, and 463 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: it's a divisional game, So I don't I don't think 464 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 1: this organization is going to come out flat at home. 465 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: I think you know you play these divisional games. When 466 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: you win them, you're playing these teams. He's already beaten 467 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes once. Now he beats him a second time. 468 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: So I don't think Justin Herbert is going to come 469 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: down earth. What I think the Chargers are is there 470 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 1: going to be a very quickly ascending team and one 471 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 1: of the few really good teams that will make a 472 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: jump over the course of a year because many of 473 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: their key components finally a healthy Irwin James, second year 474 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 1: Herbert Rashaan Slater. A lot of their best important pieces 475 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 1: are kids. So most great teams players are veterans. I 476 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: think the Chargers come out could lay it on the Raiders. 477 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 1: I think it's a high scoring game with a lot 478 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 1: of weapons. I have no problem swallowing three. I think 479 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: it's a thirty three twenty seven game. That's my take. 480 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 1: Sharper square. So the sharp side is that Charger's minus three. 481 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 1: I'm really glad you said that. I was afraid you 482 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: were going to go with the Raiders, and I think 483 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: at three and a half, there are some wise guys 484 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 1: who were taking the Raiders just because the divisional game 485 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 1: you want to get the hook. But most guys I 486 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: talked to they just like the Chargers at three or 487 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: three and a half. It's a better team and it 488 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: is a more well rounded team. It is. What Brandon 489 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: Staley is doing with that defense is really interesting and 490 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,680 Speaker 1: the way they've been able to shut people down has 491 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: really gotten the attention of a lot of professional betters. 492 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: You you mentioned Patrick certain Asante. Samuel has gone from 493 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: forty to one as Rookie of the Year to ten 494 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 1: to one as Rookie of the Year. He is a 495 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: guy who is patrolling that backfield and his ball hawking. 496 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: And what Derek Carter is doing this year instead of 497 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: sort of being the king of the checkdown, he is 498 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: going deep, right, He's going to Henry Ruggs, He's going 499 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: to Derek Waller. But this is a team that has 500 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: been playing by the sea of their pants, barely beating Miami, 501 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: barely beating Baltimore. They need every minute of every game 502 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 1: and they need every single thing to go their way. 503 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 1: And the charters just a better team, and they're becoming 504 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: a the kind of team that is understanding the cost 505 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: of their mistakes. Last week they got away with a couple. 506 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 1: I think they continue to learn. I think they take 507 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 1: that leap. I think they progress. I think the wise 508 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 1: guys agree with you, Charters ninety three. All right, now, 509 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to rely on you because I have my 510 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: four or five bets. I know, I don't know if 511 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 1: I have the stomach to beout the Jets. I know 512 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 1: this game. I'm gonna let you lead me. And if 513 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 1: your argument is strong enough that I may put this 514 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 1: in the Blazing five. Because I when I don't understand something, 515 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: I am willing to acknowledge. I'm not the smartest guy 516 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 1: in the room, and I take advice and I listen. 517 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: I don't understand the Patriots buccaneer's line. The Buccaneers are better. 518 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 1: The Buccaneers are good news coming off a loss. Anything 519 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 1: about overlooking back not going to happen. Brady's not going 520 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 1: to overlook going to Foxborough. If you really look at 521 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: what the Patriots do, they're averaging about three yards an 522 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: air pass. They have no ability to beat you deep, 523 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 1: which is the Buccaneers primary weakness their secondary with injuries. 524 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: So the Buccaneer's weakness is really the weakness that can't 525 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 1: It won't be beaten by New England. This line should 526 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: be bigger. I think New England is over their head. 527 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: I think if any player in this game is nervous, 528 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: it's Matt Jones facing is idol. I don't think it's 529 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: Brady returning to a very familiar environment. I think Vita 530 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: Villa and that defensive front. I think Todd Bowles to 531 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 1: this point has not had many zero blitzes. They've been 532 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: playing a little bit of a bend don't break defense. 533 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 1: I think they're going to be a little more aggressive 534 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: for the first time this year. I think it could 535 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 1: get ugly. I would take Tampa Bay to win by 536 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 1: ten or more, but I don't understand the line. So 537 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: explain it to me. The line is the way it 538 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: is right now because bookmakers are deathly afraid of what 539 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: happens if they go any higher. Because right now it's 540 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: at seven points. Every time it goes to seven and 541 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 1: a half. If it gets there, huge, huge money will 542 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: come in on the Patriots. And it's not because everyone 543 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 1: thinks it's going to be a very close game. It's 544 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: not because people think Bill Belichick is the genius that 545 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: he is or is not, depending on if he has 546 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:42,480 Speaker 1: Tom Brady. It's only because of how these games play out. 547 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: And this is where it always gets interesting about betting. 548 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 1: It's what we're talking about, right. It's not about the 549 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: Buccaneers and the Patriots. It's about the number. It's not 550 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: about the Jets game and the Titans game. It's about 551 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 1: the number. You play home dogs at that big of 552 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: a number because over the long term, that's how you 553 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,720 Speaker 1: make a bigger ROI. It's not a sexy answer, like 554 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 1: it's not a Okay, here's what happens in this game, 555 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 1: and this is why you want to play the Buccaneers 556 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 1: or the Patriots. It's only about the number. So many 557 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 1: times I can tell you betters won't even look at 558 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: the teams. They'll just look at the number and see 559 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 1: who's home in a way and feel like they have 560 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: an edge by playing the side where there is a 561 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: huge home underdog. That's just how it goes. Sometimes in 562 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 1: this game there is ninety three percent of the money 563 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: and ninety two percent of the tickets coming in on 564 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. Every scenario there is says play the Patriots, 565 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,239 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna like. To me, it's just like if 566 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: I'm playing the Patriots, it's a little bit of a 567 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: taste because that's what you do with that kind of number. 568 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: But I don't love it. I like the Jets on 569 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 1: the money line more than I like the Patriots. Again, 570 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: it's the Bucking Years. Well, there we go, So I'm 571 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 1: gonna pick five games out of this. You really were 572 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,800 Speaker 1: a wet blanket on my Dolphins minus two pick. I 573 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 1: mean you really. It's like, Oh, you ever go to 574 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 1: a movie and I love it and you did something 575 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 1: worse than saying the movie wasn't good. You were worse. 576 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 1: You were like, I don't even have an opinion on 577 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 1: the movie. I would rather I hate the movie I 578 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 1: love than have no opinion. It didn't move you at 579 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 1: all emotionally. It's like, what the pick is so in 580 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: you're so indifferent to my Dolphins pick. I'm more offended 581 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 1: than if you said it's a terrible pick. It's it's 582 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: it's honestly the thing you hate most in the world. 583 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:50,719 Speaker 1: It's uninteresting, it's not interesting. You've picked the least interesting game, Like, 584 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 1: how did you not pick the Vikings game like they're 585 00:33:54,840 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: they're like there's storylines, there's like passion, there's drama. What's 586 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: story Like Kirk Cousins is honestly the salteam cracker of 587 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: the league. What's an interesting storyline for Cleveland Browns, who 588 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 1: everybody's in love with going on the road play in Minnesota. 589 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,960 Speaker 1: You've got the public on one side, you got the 590 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 1: wise guys on the other side. You got a Minnesota 591 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,439 Speaker 1: team that might actually be better than we all think. 592 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 1: You've got a Browns team that probably isn't as good 593 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 1: as we think. You're taking two teams with like hobbled 594 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: quarterbacks that are like inspire nobody except their fan bases. 595 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 1: Like people have opinions about the Browns, people have opinions 596 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 1: about Kirk Cousins. You say he's a salteam. People are 597 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,640 Speaker 1: pissed he won't get vaccinated. People think that Justin Jefferson's 598 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 1: career is being wasted because he's with Kirk Cousins. There's 599 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 1: turmoil of the locker room, there's drama in that game. 600 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 1: But no, let's so you're like Vikings, Let's talk about 601 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 1: a one pm game between two non DisCrit teams that 602 00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 1: nobody's gonna care about. There's probably gonna get the f 603 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 1: level broadcasting team. Let's do that. Whoever you broadcasters are 604 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 1: on the Colts Dolphins, we don't even know who it is. 605 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,800 Speaker 1: So if we've offended you in any way, we deeply 606 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,879 Speaker 1: we apologize. You're going to be in the Corner game 607 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,879 Speaker 1: of the Corner TV game. Yeah, we won't even turn 608 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: the audio on. You're the game. We don't turn the audio. 609 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 1: We don't turn the audio on. Honestly, like, if we 610 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 1: bet this game, we assume we're not going to get 611 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 1: any updates in Red Zone. All right, man, that was great. 612 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 1: Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer at the Action Network. I 613 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,719 Speaker 1: always think it's fascinating. CCO of the Action Network, I've 614 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: said before, did not exist ten years ago as a title. 615 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 1: We're just making it up as we go. Honest, that 616 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: was a typo ten years ago. People be like, no 617 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: c O. Oh yeah, Chief Operating Officer. No, it's a 618 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: new one. It's called CCO. Years ago, years ago, when 619 00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: we were both at ESPN and I was getting promoted. 620 00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,840 Speaker 1: I had been editor in chief of the magazine for 621 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 1: a while and I was getting a new gig and 622 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: I was taking over all of Digital right. And my 623 00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 1: boss was like, so, what do you want your title 624 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: to be. I'm like, I don't know, and so like 625 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: I thought about it for a night and I made 626 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 1: up like editorial director and then I told him that's 627 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 1: what it was going to be, and that's what was 628 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 1: in the memo. And I feel like nowadays you can 629 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 1: just go around making these things up. Yeah, I had 630 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 1: like a new title. We can work on that. I'm 631 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: going to think about that one man who picks most 632 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: boring gage? But it's not boring if you win. That's 633 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 1: the thing, man, That's right, Winning is not boring. All right, Melman, 634 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:48,439 Speaker 1: good talking? Anybody see your brother? All right? You crazy kids. 635 00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 1: Go to our YouTube page, The Volume. It's growing like crazy. 636 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,280 Speaker 1: Plus our Twitter and our Instagram at the Volume Sports 637 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,839 Speaker 1: Rate Review, Subscribe, check out our YouTube page. A lot 638 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:21,880 Speaker 1: of good stuff there. Man talk soon The Volume