WEBVTT - Meta's Smart Watch Revealed to Compete With Apple

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Also never stopping are the

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<v Speaker 1>headlines when it comes to the pandemic and the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Connecticut New York among the ten U S states with

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest declines in new cases during the week through Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 1>That's according to the CDC. They put that data out today.

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<v Speaker 1>Infections in the US Northwest, though Tim they continue rising.

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<v Speaker 1>Troubled spot though China, Yeah, Russia also suffering its deadliest

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<v Speaker 1>September since World War To Denmark, one of the highest

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<v Speaker 1>vaccination rates in the world, were more than double its

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<v Speaker 1>testing capacity after a number of virus infections jumped in

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<v Speaker 1>recent week seeing different things play out in different parts

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<v Speaker 1>of the world and even different parts of the U S.

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<v Speaker 1>Al right, so let's get to it. As he always

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on Fridays, or at least typically, Dr Ian

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<v Speaker 1>los bed or clitical professor of Medicine at n y

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<v Speaker 1>U Land going back with us, and he's on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone in New York City. Dr los Bed are nice

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<v Speaker 1>to be back with you on this Friday. The China

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<v Speaker 1>stuff is troubling to me because it feels like they

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<v Speaker 1>have been on top of it. We know that they

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<v Speaker 1>have kind of basically locked people into their homes when

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<v Speaker 1>there's outbreaks. They have a vaccine, and yet China we

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<v Speaker 1>saw intercepting two bullet trains headed Debijing on concerned staff

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<v Speaker 1>may be infected. They now have cases in almost half

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<v Speaker 1>of its provinces from the latest flare up China. Does

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<v Speaker 1>that mean they're vaccine isn't working? How do you see that?

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<v Speaker 1>Happy Friday guys? Yeah, definitely. Um. We we still are

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<v Speaker 1>wrangling with COVID and it looks like we will globally

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<v Speaker 1>still have quite a ways to go, certainly pandemic, perhaps endemic,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're not done with viral mutations. Right, as long

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<v Speaker 1>as there is not really herd immunity, there's the opportunity.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeing this in the UK with the Delta plus

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<v Speaker 1>variant that's about six to that is somewhat resistant and

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<v Speaker 1>to our alpha vaccines. That's really part of the problem

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<v Speaker 1>is until you get everyone either infected or or vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>you do risk having these mutations. To data from China

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<v Speaker 1>has always been a little sketchy. Exactly how many cases,

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<v Speaker 1>how well the vaccine works very unclear. It does appear

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<v Speaker 1>that Sputnik and the Signo vac are not as effective

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<v Speaker 1>as the uh, you know, M R and A vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>or even a J and J vaccine that's been used.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that is potentially again a global risk,

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<v Speaker 1>just like India when Delta first occurred, we were like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>just a few cases, and now that's a global dominant strain.

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<v Speaker 1>What's happening in China could be another risk. Unfortunately, what

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<v Speaker 1>about what's happening in the UK, Because I think about

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<v Speaker 1>throughout the pandemic, we've sort of seen what happens in

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<v Speaker 1>the UK start to happen in the United States a

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks later. That's sort of how it's play out.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh NBC is reporting that a sub variant of COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteens delta strain is now emerging in the UK and

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<v Speaker 1>it now makes up of cases there what's going on?

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<v Speaker 1>So that is the a Y four point two variant,

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<v Speaker 1>and it is a couple of mutations in the in

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<v Speaker 1>the delta variant from our alpha original strain. Even though

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<v Speaker 1>it's about ten it does and it appears to be

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<v Speaker 1>slightly more infectious. It doesn't appear to be any more

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<v Speaker 1>letho or have any any further complications. So I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think that at this point is going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>serious risk to US or to the UK. But it

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<v Speaker 1>does show how over time you're just getting more mutations

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<v Speaker 1>and potentially any one of them could be more adaptable

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<v Speaker 1>or more um transmissible or more lethal um although over

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<v Speaker 1>time we tend to see these viruses tend to mutate

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<v Speaker 1>to be more infectious but less lethal, So that I

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<v Speaker 1>guess is the good news. Um. I just feel like

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<v Speaker 1>there's like the same headlines we're dealing with on a

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<v Speaker 1>weekly basis, but we do get some more information whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's mixed and match. You know you've had the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't need a vaccine. We just talked to him

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<v Speaker 1>and I earlier about no, you actually still need to

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<v Speaker 1>get the vaccine. As we all continue to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly walk out into the world and start to resume

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<v Speaker 1>our normal lives, what do we need to keep front

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<v Speaker 1>and center here Ian when it comes to COVID. So

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<v Speaker 1>certainly people who have had COVID, and many people don't

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<v Speaker 1>know they've had COVID, they may be very They could

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<v Speaker 1>have had a simple upper respiratory tract infection. Not everyone

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<v Speaker 1>gets that seck, so we may have better heard immunity

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<v Speaker 1>than we think. But for the people who do know

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<v Speaker 1>they've had COVID, they may be able to get what's

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<v Speaker 1>called hybrid immunity, which really just one m R and

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<v Speaker 1>a shot. Hopefully there's not a lot of vaccine hesitancy,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, to get you to refiser and maderna

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<v Speaker 1>shot if you've had COVID probably really boost your antibodies

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly would boost your protection for a long period.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is what we're seeing with some of the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine mandates, and healthcare workers and cops and firemen saying, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I might have had it. Why why you're making me

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<v Speaker 1>go through a vaccine there's some data that it may

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<v Speaker 1>be helpful, but there's also some data that if you've

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<v Speaker 1>had it, you're reasonably protected for a while. But the

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<v Speaker 1>CDC still says to get vaccinated even if you've had COVID. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no question that getting the hybrid you know, vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>meaning you've had COVID you most people lose their antibodies

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<v Speaker 1>over time, even if they have cellular immunity. But getting

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<v Speaker 1>a booster shot definitely improves um your antibody response and

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<v Speaker 1>your survivability. So it it is, But do you really

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<v Speaker 1>need two shots after that? Most people would say no.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably one shot is all you need to boost your

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<v Speaker 1>immunity and decrease your risk of transmission. So everybody should

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<v Speaker 1>probably eventually get a booster. But that's you just need

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<v Speaker 1>one booster. You don't need to write exactly. Those are

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<v Speaker 1>the people who've who have had COVID or who've had antibodies,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's certainly reasonable for some people to check antibodies.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're antibodies are still positive, you know, yes you

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<v Speaker 1>would get a boost, but that's you know, less of

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<v Speaker 1>a serious concern. All right, really appreciate it, Ian, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you have a great weekend. Dr Ian lesbad Our, clinical

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<v Speaker 1>professor of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center,

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>was at a point where was it racing to get

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<v Speaker 1>a booster. I kind of pulled back and just thought,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta wait my turn. It's funny. Do you see

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<v Speaker 1>this play out? My brother who's a teacher in Washington

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<v Speaker 1>got his. My other brother who works in education, just

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<v Speaker 1>got his today in California. Right, We're seeing them certainly happen. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>and Facebook Meta platforms is at about two pc as

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<v Speaker 1>we speak on this Friday. Hey, there's some news out there.

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<v Speaker 1>First up, we got the name check name change, I

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<v Speaker 1>should say. Then we got the company going after the

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<v Speaker 1>Apple Watch. Let's bring in Bloomberg News Technology report of

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<v Speaker 1>Mark German joining us on Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>So Mark, what do you know? Thanks for having me?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, who else to talk about an Apple Watch competitor?

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<v Speaker 1>Then the guy who covers Apple right, So, um, we

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<v Speaker 1>know we've known for a little bit of time now

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<v Speaker 1>that Facebook is working on a smart watch. But yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>we actually got our first look at the device. We

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<v Speaker 1>obtained a photo or an official render of the Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>smart watch. H this was this is actually really cool,

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<v Speaker 1>this is really interesting. So we found it with the

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<v Speaker 1>help of a friend of mine and developer named Steve Moser,

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<v Speaker 1>inside of the Facebook app that the company offers to

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<v Speaker 1>consumers today to control remember those rayband smart classes and

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook launch a few weeks ago to troll those. So

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<v Speaker 1>they did a software update earlier this week for that

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<v Speaker 1>app called Facebook View and that image if you really

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<v Speaker 1>deep dive in into the source code, into the file

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<v Speaker 1>system of that application, it's just hiding in there, and

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<v Speaker 1>they added it in there this week. So pretty remarkable stuff. Mark.

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<v Speaker 1>The first thing that sticks out to me when I

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<v Speaker 1>saw this image in the story that you published was

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<v Speaker 1>the camera at the bottom of the smart watch. What

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<v Speaker 1>is that for? Because that's different than an Apple Watch.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no camera on an Apple Watch. Oh man, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what they're thinking. So first of all, it's

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<v Speaker 1>like a notch, right, It's like a little circle at

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<v Speaker 1>the bottom of the screen. So they cut into the screen. However,

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<v Speaker 1>what I will say is that I think people have

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<v Speaker 1>been clamoring for video chat on the Apple Watch for

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<v Speaker 1>a few years now. They haven't done it because of

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<v Speaker 1>battery life concerns. They certainly tested it totally imagine. You're right,

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<v Speaker 1>but like, imagine being able to do a video chat

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<v Speaker 1>on your risk, not a one minute chat. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>that would be kind of cool inspector Gadget style. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>I've done the phone call on it. I feel a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit like a nerd, but it's been kind of cool.

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<v Speaker 1>But you're right. If we could get a video chat,

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<v Speaker 1>oh my god, I would be all in. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook's portal system. Facebook has this portal kind of like

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<v Speaker 1>Alexa device that might work with it, right, yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that would make sense to me, using the same

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<v Speaker 1>protocols there is that the portal uses. Maybe they'll brand

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<v Speaker 1>it as a portal watch or some sort of device.

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<v Speaker 1>What's interesting to me is that a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>feedback I've been hearing on this product already has been

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<v Speaker 1>people saying I don't want a camera from Facebook, let

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<v Speaker 1>alone in my home. You're telling me I would want

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<v Speaker 1>one on my body, thanks? Right? Um, these are there

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<v Speaker 1>are real privacy concerns and the Facebook brand was so

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<v Speaker 1>tarnished in terms of privacy. There's a reason they're Meta now, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll see how this does. If the ray bands

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<v Speaker 1>are any indication, I don't think this is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a slam dunk. What I'm told is the Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>has not made a final decision yet on if they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to release this product, this particularly particular design. What

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<v Speaker 1>I'm told they've developed models aimed at and when they

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<v Speaker 1>decide to launch it, whether that's in twenty two or

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four, they'll launch that corresponding model. So there's a

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<v Speaker 1>possibility they skipped the twenty twenty two version and their

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<v Speaker 1>first models the twenty three or twenty four versions. So

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<v Speaker 1>we still may have a few years to go, but

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<v Speaker 1>maybe some new found competition in the watch base for Apple. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's what I'm wondering. Does it say something more broadly

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<v Speaker 1>mark about what Meta wants to do when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the wearables market and listen, they've got a great

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<v Speaker 1>initially user base that they can tap, but I just

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder about it. Would it still be if they

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<v Speaker 1>get into it a niche market for them like it

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<v Speaker 1>is too Somewhat I guess it's safe to say for Apple,

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook is never going to win the phone. Sorry, Meta

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<v Speaker 1>meta is never going to win the phone. It is

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<v Speaker 1>way too saturated with iOS, Android and some of the

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<v Speaker 1>other devices you see from Samsung and Google and such.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're needing to pick up the edges, right, they

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<v Speaker 1>need to invent this new category. So they're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>own video devices with the portal, with this upcoming watch,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course what they're calling the metaverse with these

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<v Speaker 1>VR and a R devices. So they're really going for

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<v Speaker 1>the edges, and they're trying to build up their own

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<v Speaker 1>new ecosystem to pull people away from Apple. Right. The

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<v Speaker 1>goal is is that Apple, that Facebook meta is going

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<v Speaker 1>to kill the iPhone and Android with these other types

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<v Speaker 1>of devices, replaced the phone with the metaverse with the watch.

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<v Speaker 1>I know that sounds all kind of crazy, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is what they're trying to do. We wait ahead, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>ten seconds mark? What is Apple trying to do in

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<v Speaker 1>the metaverse? Apple is going to announce its first mixed

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<v Speaker 1>reality headset probably later next year. Is Apple going to

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<v Speaker 1>rename itself then bring the computer back in Apple Computer Inc? Meat?

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe look go to Meat. Isn't that what Wayne. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>Mark German, you are the best. Have a great weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>Mark German. He's a Bloomberg News technology reporter, covers just

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 1>all things Apple, but then when it's something going on

0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.360
<v Speaker 1>that might defect Apple, he's on it as well and

0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:41.439
<v Speaker 1>then includes that news out of Facebook, or at least

0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:48.199
<v Speaker 1>speculation not Facebook. Sorry, you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:52.360
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovich on

0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Let's get to it because one of our

0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.760
<v Speaker 1>reporters writing for Bloomberg Business Week. In the current issue

0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.079
<v Speaker 1>of the Bloomberg Business Week magazine, it's online on newsstands,

0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:04.680
<v Speaker 1>also on the Bloomberg it's about Facebook now known as Meta,

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.959
<v Speaker 1>including how Meta needs to change more than it's named,

0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.719
<v Speaker 1>Tim as the competition among the handful of big tech

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.080
<v Speaker 1>companies really is heating up. Alex Webs, a correspondent for

0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:18.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Take. He joins us on the phone from London. Alexi, Right,

0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:20.400
<v Speaker 1>for the first time, all five of the U S

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.680
<v Speaker 1>tech giants are going to keep be competing directly. It's

0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 1>not clear though, that Mark Zuckerberg can't escape his past.

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.960
<v Speaker 1>How does this change that Zuckerberg outlined this week and

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:34.440
<v Speaker 1>subsequent name change, how does that put all five big

0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.959
<v Speaker 1>tech companies competing with one another head to head? Well,

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's the name change and all of itself

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.760
<v Speaker 1>that renders the new competition active. But you know, we've

0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.520
<v Speaker 1>got at this stage, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook

0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 1>all developing products in the augmented and virtual reality space.

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 1>They are on a collision course to be competing with

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 1>one another. The danger, of course with Facebook that Facebook

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:03.440
<v Speaker 1>has into usually is that the name has become quite toxic.

0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.080
<v Speaker 1>And when you're competing with Apple, which has really forged

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:11.160
<v Speaker 1>a kind of cachet as a company that values use

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:15.439
<v Speaker 1>a privacy and respects to use a data, that's something

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.600
<v Speaker 1>that Facebook has to deal with because really it's not

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.319
<v Speaker 1>something that we recognize faceboofore all staring so stead and

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>giving itself a new name, it's an effort to shed

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 1>itself in some of that toxicity. Join us also, Plumber

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>business to get her Joe Webber Agel Hi, Hi, Alex,

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.720
<v Speaker 1>thanks again for this story. Um yeah, it's like this.

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>It's the great thing of like, are you willing to

0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.680
<v Speaker 1>throw all your cards in the air and just completely pivot? Well, you,

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:41.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, your your company, and your brain faces like

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:46.120
<v Speaker 1>the the most scrutiny it's ever phased, and the heat

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.480
<v Speaker 1>just gets turned up and it's like, well, let's just pivot.

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.839
<v Speaker 1>So so Alex. Like when you think about Mark Zuckerberg's

0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 1>movie here, like obviously he's been talking about this for

0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:00.200
<v Speaker 1>a while, how quickly though, Like do people in the

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 1>technical universe think that he actually maybe pulled all of

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 1>this together in terms of like, you know, executing it

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 1>as a masterstroke or attempting them to do so. And

0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>this has clearly been in the works for some time,

0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, they have. They brought Oculus years ago, Oculus Ripped,

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 1>which is now all being rebranded out as Meta Um

0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.000
<v Speaker 1>the rebrand itself. It's hard to know how quickly that

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 1>came together, but the timing is certainly opportunity and at

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the moment when the criticism seems to have reached its

0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.560
<v Speaker 1>loudest crescendo to day um. You know, Facebook has been

0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>through plenty of crises in the past few years, but

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>it really feels this time, and maybe I'm wrong, it

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:39.320
<v Speaker 1>just feels that there is something a bit different. There

0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 1>is real meat on the bones of the things that

0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>they've been doing wrong. There are concrete proposals for what

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 1>they can fix and what they should fix, and um,

0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 1>there is legislation in the works both here and in

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the US which gives regulators more power to force them

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 1>to do stuff. So all those things come together as

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>a perfect storm. But the timing for changing the name

0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>is particularly appropriate. Well, so I think you say regulators too,

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>and I feel like we have just problems getting basic

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 1>stuff through sometimes in Congress, and I just think how

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:09.640
<v Speaker 1>a regulator is going to be able to really keep

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.560
<v Speaker 1>up with something like this that Facebook meta is working on.

0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.200
<v Speaker 1>It was some point actually made by Nick Clegg, of course,

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>the form of British Deputy Prime Minister who now heads um,

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, corporate affairs and communications on Facebook. He said

0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 1>that the metaverse is not going to arrive tomorrow. It's

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.600
<v Speaker 1>going to take perhaps a decade. That means, in his telling,

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 1>that the regulators have more time to catch up with

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.000
<v Speaker 1>this than they might do normally. Uh, you know, we

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 1>know that they tend to be five years behind any

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 1>technological innovation when it comes to deciding how to regulate it.

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 1>Perhaps this time around that won't be the case. That

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.160
<v Speaker 1>also might just be wished for thinking on our part

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 1>and indeed his Yeah, so, Alex, let's the set Facebook's

0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.560
<v Speaker 1>opportunity here compared to some of these other big tech

0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 1>players who we also know as you as you wrote,

0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.120
<v Speaker 1>will end up in the same swimming pool. Uh, what

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>advantages does Facebook have and how does that compare with

0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:05.200
<v Speaker 1>with the other companies since everybody's going to end up

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 1>perhaps having multi metaversees. I actually wonder what you know,

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.800
<v Speaker 1>it's clearly one of the risks with if you're running

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 1>your own sort of metaverse metavirus and metaverse, then you

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 1>are going to be having to manage that content and

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.320
<v Speaker 1>there are going to be content risks in this and

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.560
<v Speaker 1>for all of the problems that Facebook has had managing content,

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 1>and it's got a lot more experience doing it than does,

0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 1>for example, Apple, And so that might actually prove to

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.440
<v Speaker 1>be an advantage if you find they are running the

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.680
<v Speaker 1>ecosystem themselves, that they have got people working on these

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>problems already, that might give them a jump starts on Apple.

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:46.160
<v Speaker 1>Where they don't have is a distribution network in terms

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 1>of actually selling devices. Apple and Amazon in particular have

0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>incredible sales networks. Um, but Facebook does have an interesting

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.840
<v Speaker 1>partnership that it is signed with Slow lux Otica. It's

0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 1>not a name that many people know, but it owns

0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:03.160
<v Speaker 1>in the US Ray and Oakley Sunglass Heart. It controls

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.399
<v Speaker 1>of the global eyewear market. And you can imagine that

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.560
<v Speaker 1>you're going in to buy your glasses and there's also

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.639
<v Speaker 1>Facebook Smart glasses in there. Then all of a sudden

0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:12.920
<v Speaker 1>has quite compelling sales channel. That is not, as I

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.520
<v Speaker 1>understand that, the scope of their agreement with a sort

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.679
<v Speaker 1>of good just yet, but it is something that could evolve. Hey, Alex,

0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:21.680
<v Speaker 1>can you talk a little bit about the advertising opportunity

0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.760
<v Speaker 1>in the metaverse because Facebook is an advertising company. In

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.080
<v Speaker 1>your story, you talk about the way that Facebook knows

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.359
<v Speaker 1>what you're doing because of what you're doing on Instagram

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.919
<v Speaker 1>and Facebook's apps, But how will it track you and

0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:36.600
<v Speaker 1>then advertised to you in the metaverse? So that is

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:40.200
<v Speaker 1>absolutely the potentially really creepy thing in the metapurse right now.

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.240
<v Speaker 1>Facebook has pretty granular data on what you're browsing, not

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.520
<v Speaker 1>just what you click on and the accounts you follow,

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:50.120
<v Speaker 1>but what photos you linger on and therefore on Instagram,

0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.520
<v Speaker 1>for example, it knows which things you look at a

0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.119
<v Speaker 1>little bit more and is more likely to suggest that

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 1>you follow similar content. Now with the Metaverse, they actually

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.520
<v Speaker 1>showed off technology which is sort of eye tracking m

0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>gauging your facial expressions. It showed them for different purposes

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:06.960
<v Speaker 1>to see what you're looking at in order that you

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.960
<v Speaker 1>could decide to, for instance, turn on a light, um

0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>and face tracking in order to show your expressions on Navatar.

0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:16.400
<v Speaker 1>But it's not hard to imagine how that could also

0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:19.120
<v Speaker 1>be used for advertising purposes, engaging your interest. If you're

0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.880
<v Speaker 1>walking down the high street and you see a shop

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:25.159
<v Speaker 1>window and you think that Facebook that shot window is

0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.359
<v Speaker 1>more appealing to you than another one, it can target

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 1>adds theory to you based on that. I wish Facebook

0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.720
<v Speaker 1>could see my face right now when you're describing this

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 1>to me, Alex, I'm I'm looking at your face right now,

0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 1>and you look a little dubious, um seeing I was

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.400
<v Speaker 1>gonna ask you you want to do this program from

0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the metaverse, because is like, I'm just I'm still really curious.

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.360
<v Speaker 1>Like the last time I really really really use Facebook

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:57.320
<v Speaker 1>was to like email a bunch of graduates from my

0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 1>high school class to like we're going to help organize

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 1>a reunion. And now I'm like, well, the reunion was

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:07.760
<v Speaker 1>terrible anyway, and using you know, drawn back into all

0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.120
<v Speaker 1>these old friends. What about Instagram? No, well, I guess

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:12.239
<v Speaker 1>here's the thing that was Like, could you imagine like

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 1>a reunion that just took place in the metaverse and

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 1>you didn't actually have to like go back to that

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 1>high school, Like okay, that could get to be an

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:20.919
<v Speaker 1>avatar and look like you did when you're eighteen. Like

0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:23.439
<v Speaker 1>that sounds better than dealing with reality anyway. Right, It

0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.199
<v Speaker 1>sounds novel, but it doesn't. I don't know if it

0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:28.240
<v Speaker 1>has staying power, if it's sticky, right, it sounds cool

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:30.480
<v Speaker 1>to do a few times. My dystopian view is that

0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.240
<v Speaker 1>with climate change, we're not gonna be able to go outside,

0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:34.679
<v Speaker 1>so all we're going to have is the metaverse. Happy

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Friday everyone, Sorry you would get teased for what we're

0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.320
<v Speaker 1>talking about later on the show, Miss Sunshine. All right,

0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:45.479
<v Speaker 1>Joe Webber, have a great, great weekend, Metaverse or not.

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.960
<v Speaker 1>Alex Web correspondent at Bloomberg Quick Takes. Check out everything

0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:50.480
<v Speaker 1>and check out the new is shoe of Bloomberg Business

0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business

0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:59.840
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser, and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:02.720
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. All right, so we talked about Ether,

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>second largest cryptocurrency, staring to a record today, about it's

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.280
<v Speaker 1>backed off of that, but a lot of bullish sentiment

0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:11.480
<v Speaker 1>around that because of an upgrade of the Ethereum network,

0:20:11.520 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>and also we've just seen Bitcoin take off big time.

0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:16.879
<v Speaker 1>In a weekly crypto segment, we've got back with us

0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.520
<v Speaker 1>Matthew Segeal. Matthew Segel as head of digital Assets at

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.920
<v Speaker 1>van Ack. He joins us on the phone from New

0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:25.960
<v Speaker 1>York City. Matthew, October has been a banner months. But

0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:30.200
<v Speaker 1>for many cryptocurrencies, whether they're meme stock, meme coins I

0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:33.880
<v Speaker 1>almost said meme stocks, they're meme coins, or more established

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 1>cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or ethereum. What is the next catalyst

0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 1>as we looked the remainder of the year that's going

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to continue to send cryptocurrencies higher, Hi can Tim? Hi? Yeah,

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the story remains the same, which is increased activity on

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:57.040
<v Speaker 1>multiple blockchains, Bitcoin and Ethereum and other smart contract protocols UM.

0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.440
<v Speaker 1>So you know, there's going to be close to four

0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:03.040
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars of value that's sent across the Bitcoin network.

0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:07.199
<v Speaker 1>This year. The same goes for Ethereum. That's four times

0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:11.639
<v Speaker 1>the amount of PayPal growing four times faster. So consumers

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:15.199
<v Speaker 1>and businesses around the world adopting this technology as a

0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:20.200
<v Speaker 1>way to save costs program instructions into their money. Uh,

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, globally seven it's it's a compelling use case

0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:26.800
<v Speaker 1>that continues to take market share, and that's the driver

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:29.800
<v Speaker 1>of the prices over the last month and for longer.

0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:32.560
<v Speaker 1>Matt gotta ask you. You're just back from El Salvador,

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>the Latin American nation last month becoming the world's first

0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.479
<v Speaker 1>country to officially adopt bitcoin. Who did you talk with,

0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:40.200
<v Speaker 1>who did you meet with? What are you hearing about

0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:43.080
<v Speaker 1>it and how it's kind of going, because you know,

0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:45.200
<v Speaker 1>that's a test lab, if you will, or test case

0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 1>for us when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Yeah, I recently

0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:56.480
<v Speaker 1>returned from a trip there, visited government officials, banks, entrepreneurs,

0:21:56.760 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 1>went to Bitcoin Beach, was which was really the initial

0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:03.359
<v Speaker 1>catalyst for the adoption of bitcoin is legal tender. Uh.

0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:06.439
<v Speaker 1>They're now more than three million El Salvadorians who have

0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:10.440
<v Speaker 1>used the achieve of bitcoin wallet. They're sending two million

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:14.639
<v Speaker 1>dollars a day in remittances across the network at zero fees,

0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>So if you annualize that, that's close to three percent

0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:19.920
<v Speaker 1>of GDP because this is an economy that is really

0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:23.679
<v Speaker 1>dependent on remittances for their growth. Uh. And then the

0:22:23.720 --> 0:22:27.399
<v Speaker 1>country has also recently begun mining bitcoin from the energy

0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:31.879
<v Speaker 1>stranded in their volcanoes. So it's really a remarkable achievement

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:36.359
<v Speaker 1>that's allowing a very poor emerging market to essentially manufacture

0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:41.320
<v Speaker 1>scarce money using stranded energy resources that otherwise would would

0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:44.960
<v Speaker 1>go to waste. So I found it an incredibly progressive development.

0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:47.120
<v Speaker 1>I think he'll be hearing more news about this over

0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:50.879
<v Speaker 1>the next year, whether it's Ukraine, Belarus, one of the

0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:54.760
<v Speaker 1>French Central African colonies, or maybe even Brazil. There will

0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:58.040
<v Speaker 1>be more countries that adopt bitcoin is legal tender because

0:22:58.119 --> 0:23:01.679
<v Speaker 1>it is a rational counterbound to the dollar who gemony

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:03.840
<v Speaker 1>that they've lived under for for so long. Did you

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:06.399
<v Speaker 1>actually get to see, Matthew, the bitcoin mining operations that

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:10.560
<v Speaker 1>are harnessing volcanic activity. I did not see a first

0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:13.439
<v Speaker 1>hand that that will be uh an experience for for

0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 1>a second trip, Okay, because I'm just wondering if they're

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:17.640
<v Speaker 1>able to do it yet, and how success how quickly

0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:19.400
<v Speaker 1>they were able to do that. You mentioned some other

0:23:19.440 --> 0:23:22.439
<v Speaker 1>countries based on what you saw in El Salvador. What

0:23:22.480 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 1>do you think this says about where this happens next,

0:23:25.680 --> 0:23:30.359
<v Speaker 1>when or if another country adopts it as legal tender? Sure,

0:23:30.960 --> 0:23:33.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, well some I think it's five percent of

0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 1>the world economy is currently you know, facing default to

0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:42.120
<v Speaker 1>the I m F. So you know, countries that have

0:23:42.200 --> 0:23:48.439
<v Speaker 1>been limited or constrained by rules or decisions that you know,

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.919
<v Speaker 1>in a way compromise their sovereignty. These are kind of

0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:56.679
<v Speaker 1>the natural um early adopters to try to create a

0:23:56.680 --> 0:24:01.760
<v Speaker 1>parallel monetary system that restores them some measure of autonomy.

0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 1>And the game theory here is that if if one

0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:08.080
<v Speaker 1>country doesn't do it, another will, And El Salvador was,

0:24:08.119 --> 0:24:10.639
<v Speaker 1>in our view, you know, the first of a of

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 1>a tipping point. So it's hard to predict who will

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:16.240
<v Speaker 1>be next. But there are a lot of nations that

0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 1>have adopted the dollar, maybe not as their first choice.

0:24:20.200 --> 0:24:23.800
<v Speaker 1>And what we're learning from El Salvador's experiment is that

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:27.400
<v Speaker 1>it is possible to forge another path. Well, just like

0:24:27.800 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 1>to some extent emerging markets, we've seen this kind of

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:33.159
<v Speaker 1>skip maybe credit card usage and just go right to

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:37.240
<v Speaker 1>using the plane, using your phone, excuse me, from mobile payments, right,

0:24:37.280 --> 0:24:40.919
<v Speaker 1>and that becoming your bank and everything financial. I do

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:44.600
<v Speaker 1>wonder if there's something to be said with developing nations, um,

0:24:44.720 --> 0:24:47.280
<v Speaker 1>matt when it comes to crypto use, Will they be

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.520
<v Speaker 1>the ones the really true, as I said, test sites

0:24:50.720 --> 0:24:53.840
<v Speaker 1>and really give us the real world usage of this.

0:24:56.000 --> 0:24:59.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that's spot on. Emerging markets often find it

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:03.480
<v Speaker 1>rat sal to skip an intermediary technology, you know, such

0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:06.480
<v Speaker 1>as the fax machine and going straight to the internet. Uh,

0:25:06.520 --> 0:25:08.520
<v Speaker 1>and you know that's that's what That's what we're seeing

0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:11.639
<v Speaker 1>with cryptocurrencies pretty broadly. Okay. We saw the launch of

0:25:11.680 --> 0:25:20.520
<v Speaker 1>the first futures back bitcoin et F last week. Yeah, okay, sorry, Okay. Anyway,

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:23.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering, Matthew, what we're going to start to see

0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:26.399
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to investment products that are available not

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 1>just to retail investors, but from for advisors who want

0:25:30.080 --> 0:25:35.600
<v Speaker 1>to make this available to their clients. Sure, the institutional

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:39.800
<v Speaker 1>adoption really is the next leg of this story. By

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:46.040
<v Speaker 1>our estimates, listed companies own about one percent of outstanding bitcoin,

0:25:46.640 --> 0:25:50.639
<v Speaker 1>The Great Scale Bitcoin Trust is another four and then

0:25:50.720 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 1>with the emergence of these alternative vehicles, such as futures

0:25:54.200 --> 0:25:58.720
<v Speaker 1>ETFs that will just you know, widen the available vehicles

0:25:58.760 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>that institutions can you used to get access to this

0:26:01.640 --> 0:26:05.600
<v Speaker 1>asset class. Um. So as you may have heard that

0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin futures have you know, rather consistently underperformed the spot price, right,

0:26:10.920 --> 0:26:12.960
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, we continue to believe that it's

0:26:12.960 --> 0:26:16.439
<v Speaker 1>a physical bitcoin ets that will be the best vehicle

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:19.840
<v Speaker 1>for traditional investors to get exposure to this asset class

0:26:19.840 --> 0:26:24.520
<v Speaker 1>and a traditional brokerage account more liquidity, um, you know,

0:26:24.600 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 1>better tracking error. But you know the regulators have been

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 1>slow to approve that, right. There's been a lot of

0:26:30.080 --> 0:26:33.760
<v Speaker 1>conversations about underlying asset and when it comes to futures

0:26:33.760 --> 0:26:37.159
<v Speaker 1>in cryptocurrencies. Um, thank you so much, really appreciate it.

0:26:37.200 --> 0:26:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Matthew Siegel, he's head of digital assets researcher at Vanneck

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:41.879
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. I don't know

0:26:41.880 --> 0:26:44.359
<v Speaker 1>what if I thought it was Pico Bett b I

0:26:44.440 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>T that's one point today. By the way, this month

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:56.120
<v Speaker 1>crypto goes one way. Yeah, but you let me drive?

0:26:56.440 --> 0:27:01.639
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, this is not a toy, all right, please,

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 1>I want to dry good. Question is the drive to

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:19.640
<v Speaker 1>the clothes on Bluebird radio. So just got about ten

0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:22.440
<v Speaker 1>minutes left, getting ready to wrap up the Friday tradeing session,

0:27:22.480 --> 0:27:24.399
<v Speaker 1>getting ready to wrap up the weekend, getting ready to

0:27:24.480 --> 0:27:26.920
<v Speaker 1>wrap up a month. Time? Where does it go? Where

0:27:26.920 --> 0:27:29.720
<v Speaker 1>does it go? Time flies when you're having fun? Uh?

0:27:29.960 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 1>And we are seeing stucks definitely off their lows, near

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:34.720
<v Speaker 1>their highs of the session. Let's get to it. I'm

0:27:34.760 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 1>so excited he's back with us. Love talking with Doug Ramsey.

0:27:37.359 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 1>He's chief investment officer over the Louthhole Group, their core

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:42.840
<v Speaker 1>investment fund, by the way, beating most of its peers,

0:27:42.840 --> 0:27:44.280
<v Speaker 1>many of its peers, I should say, a year to

0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:47.879
<v Speaker 1>date up about almost thirteen percent this year in the

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:49.960
<v Speaker 1>past twelve months. Doug is back with us on the

0:27:50.000 --> 0:27:53.719
<v Speaker 1>phone from Minneapolis. Doug, how are you. I'm doing well.

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:56.480
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of the market? Trade? Definitely a

0:27:56.480 --> 0:28:00.520
<v Speaker 1>different tone this month versus last month. What stands out

0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:06.399
<v Speaker 1>for you? Well, you know, just the way this market

0:28:06.680 --> 0:28:10.879
<v Speaker 1>is absorbing news is really impressive. I mean, you have

0:28:10.960 --> 0:28:18.080
<v Speaker 1>two titans of industry of technology disappointing uh, yesterday and

0:28:18.359 --> 0:28:21.240
<v Speaker 1>you know here we have we have them and the

0:28:21.280 --> 0:28:25.919
<v Speaker 1>stocks aren't up, but the nastack is up on the

0:28:25.960 --> 0:28:28.359
<v Speaker 1>day and it's up three on the on the week,

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:32.000
<v Speaker 1>in a week in which sort of the average stock

0:28:32.080 --> 0:28:34.480
<v Speaker 1>and a very good measure of that that we scrutinized

0:28:34.520 --> 0:28:38.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty closely is the value line rithmetic composite. It's sort

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of obscure, but it's valuable because it's stocks equal weighted

0:28:43.920 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 1>and that's down to percent on the week. So pretty

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:49.959
<v Speaker 1>pretty odd action. I mean, clearly renewed focus on just

0:28:50.560 --> 0:28:56.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, these megacap tech stocks. It's it's it's pretty amazing. Yeah.

0:28:56.720 --> 0:28:59.880
<v Speaker 1>I think the term that I'm looking for is thank you, Tesla.

0:29:02.880 --> 0:29:04.640
<v Speaker 1>That's what it's. I mean, that's really what this this

0:29:04.680 --> 0:29:07.880
<v Speaker 1>week looked like. And we're seeing that offset. We're seeing

0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 1>off that offset losses for UH, for Apple and for

0:29:12.320 --> 0:29:15.000
<v Speaker 1>Amazon today. At least duck Um will help us make

0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:18.280
<v Speaker 1>sense of that a little bit, because you write that

0:29:18.360 --> 0:29:21.920
<v Speaker 1>we're in the steroids era, wiping out all other yardsticks

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:25.040
<v Speaker 1>of excess. And you illustrate this with something that I

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:28.160
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of our listeners are familiar with. Anonymous

0:29:28.160 --> 0:29:29.800
<v Speaker 1>owner of a crypto wol it has made almost six

0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars on an eight thousand dollar investment since August.

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:36.280
<v Speaker 1>What is this is illustrating to you, well, what's interesting.

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:39.959
<v Speaker 1>I mean you've written about it at length, but I

0:29:39.960 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 1>mean there's not a lot of widespread commentary on that.

0:29:44.440 --> 0:29:47.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is a six billion dollar trade. I

0:29:47.840 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 1>mean it totally eclipses, uh, you know, the Big short

0:29:51.800 --> 0:29:56.000
<v Speaker 1>by John Paulson. He personally made four billion dollars back

0:29:56.080 --> 0:30:00.440
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand eight after elaborately structuring you know, there's

0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:04.400
<v Speaker 1>bet against some prime mortgages. And then of course, uh,

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 1>George Sorrows and stand Druck and Miller made a billion

0:30:06.920 --> 0:30:10.520
<v Speaker 1>dollars in a day shorting the short in the pound.

0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean those stood as like the hallmarks of the

0:30:14.400 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 1>greatest trades of all time. And and now we have

0:30:19.320 --> 0:30:21.600
<v Speaker 1>a no name and who knows, maybe it's not a

0:30:21.680 --> 0:30:25.680
<v Speaker 1>no name making six billion dollars on an eight thousand

0:30:25.720 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 1>dollar investment in two months. Just I mean the comparison,

0:30:31.800 --> 0:30:34.440
<v Speaker 1>any comparison to the tech bubble, I mean, we've really

0:30:34.880 --> 0:30:40.240
<v Speaker 1>blown away most of those. Um, I think this year

0:30:40.280 --> 0:30:43.160
<v Speaker 1>with just I mean kicking it off with the big

0:30:43.200 --> 0:30:47.200
<v Speaker 1>short squeeze, you know in game stopped kicking off the year,

0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and things have just gotten progressively wackier. What money is

0:30:50.720 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 1>still floating around? What do you do doug to makes

0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:57.200
<v Speaker 1>sense of cryptocurrencies, Like, as a technician, are there things

0:30:57.240 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 1>that you feel like with certain conviction that you can

0:31:02.160 --> 0:31:05.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of understand this market better more clearly or I

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:07.840
<v Speaker 1>don't know. I'm not sure that I do. I think

0:31:07.880 --> 0:31:09.959
<v Speaker 1>it's just a function of the environment. I mean, if

0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you think that this mania has got some life left

0:31:14.200 --> 0:31:16.000
<v Speaker 1>in it, and that's you know, there are a lot

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:18.520
<v Speaker 1>of economists that would point to and I mean, this

0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:21.200
<v Speaker 1>is it's factual. I mean we're only a year and

0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:24.160
<v Speaker 1>a half into this economic expansion. Now. If you look

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:29.040
<v Speaker 1>at environmental indicators, whether it's economic measures unemployment at only

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 1>four percent, profit margins at record highs, or whether it's

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:36.080
<v Speaker 1>more market sentiment measures, I mean, none of that stuff

0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:39.440
<v Speaker 1>is early cycle. None of that is consistent with an

0:31:39.440 --> 0:31:42.480
<v Speaker 1>economic expansion that's only a year and a half old.

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:46.480
<v Speaker 1>More of it's consistent with a single economic expansion that's

0:31:46.520 --> 0:31:49.360
<v Speaker 1>like thirteen years old, being back to oh nine. That's

0:31:49.360 --> 0:31:51.360
<v Speaker 1>what I wanted to ask you. How are we supposed

0:31:51.400 --> 0:31:57.880
<v Speaker 1>to assess the pandemic which was fell apart, economy shut down,

0:31:58.080 --> 0:32:00.720
<v Speaker 1>Everything was fell off a cliff, right, We just stopped

0:32:01.000 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 1>and then we bounced back when we started to get

0:32:04.320 --> 0:32:07.920
<v Speaker 1>support and we started to get the vaccine. So is

0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:10.680
<v Speaker 1>it just part of the economic cycle that was happening

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:13.160
<v Speaker 1>or do we look at it as a new cycle,

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:16.440
<v Speaker 1>especially when you look at the supply disruptions and we're

0:32:16.440 --> 0:32:19.400
<v Speaker 1>trying to reassess, you know, labor, does the market not

0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 1>go back to where it was pre pandemic? So are

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:24.000
<v Speaker 1>we now in kind of a new market cycle era,

0:32:24.080 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 1>new economic cycle era? You know, I think it's more

0:32:28.120 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 1>productive to look at it is just you know, an

0:32:31.120 --> 0:32:35.640
<v Speaker 1>extension and an acceleration of a long cycle. I mean,

0:32:35.640 --> 0:32:39.120
<v Speaker 1>it was just a temporary interruption. It was a very

0:32:39.160 --> 0:32:41.880
<v Speaker 1>scary one. But it didn't you do anything to purge

0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:44.640
<v Speaker 1>prior accesses. I mean, to the contrary, I mean, we

0:32:44.720 --> 0:32:49.200
<v Speaker 1>doubled down on prior accesses in terms of you know, uh,

0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:54.760
<v Speaker 1>lobbying on yet another trillion in in corporate debt um.

0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm not saying that credit quality is compromised

0:32:57.120 --> 0:32:59.160
<v Speaker 1>because profits are so good right now and rates are

0:32:59.160 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 1>still low. Why aren't credit? Why is in credit more

0:33:01.880 --> 0:33:07.480
<v Speaker 1>compromised in your view? I mean, why do I think

0:33:07.520 --> 0:33:12.320
<v Speaker 1>it's I mean, spreads are incredibly tight, but you know,

0:33:12.360 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>with rates this low, Yeah, and cash flow pretty strong.

0:33:17.960 --> 0:33:20.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's hard to see an imminent weakening and

0:33:20.680 --> 0:33:24.320
<v Speaker 1>credit quality, but I think the risk reward for you

0:33:25.480 --> 0:33:29.520
<v Speaker 1>from here is very appetizing. Hey, you just got about

0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:31.200
<v Speaker 1>a minute or so left here. You know, I love

0:33:31.240 --> 0:33:33.000
<v Speaker 1>talking to you for so many different reasons. But tell

0:33:33.080 --> 0:33:35.560
<v Speaker 1>us when you look at the market. You're neutral on

0:33:35.600 --> 0:33:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the stock market right now? Tell us what you're seeing

0:33:38.480 --> 0:33:40.480
<v Speaker 1>and how we should be playing it as we take

0:33:40.600 --> 0:33:43.920
<v Speaker 1>higher here near the close on this Friday. Well, the

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 1>plane is a good word because it's certainly more speculative

0:33:46.480 --> 0:33:49.200
<v Speaker 1>market than one with a lot of investment appeal. I mean,

0:33:49.240 --> 0:33:51.960
<v Speaker 1>we are one ones as you mentioned, to look to

0:33:52.000 --> 0:33:55.240
<v Speaker 1>look at the charts and you know, with again sort

0:33:55.240 --> 0:33:57.720
<v Speaker 1>of the average stock that value line measure making a

0:33:57.760 --> 0:34:00.680
<v Speaker 1>new high earlier in the week, New York Stock Exchange

0:34:00.760 --> 0:34:03.000
<v Speaker 1>Daily bread making a new high earlier in the week.

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:05.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, even though I mean we've rotated back to

0:34:05.840 --> 0:34:09.000
<v Speaker 1>the usual suspects of things, it's still a broad market,

0:34:09.040 --> 0:34:12.799
<v Speaker 1>and it would be very unusual for at the top

0:34:12.920 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 1>right here with the market as broad as it has been.

0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:18.879
<v Speaker 1>So despite the fact that we don't like valuations, that's

0:34:18.920 --> 0:34:22.319
<v Speaker 1>nothing new in our shop of late and that we're

0:34:22.520 --> 0:34:26.000
<v Speaker 1>leia on the tapering. From a technical perspective, it says

0:34:26.040 --> 0:34:30.080
<v Speaker 1>there's probably more life left before you have a severe setback.

0:34:30.160 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 1>I think related to the tapering that we gotta run. Sorry, Doug,

0:34:34.239 --> 0:34:37.240
<v Speaker 1>have a good week, and Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer

0:34:37.280 --> 0:34:39.480
<v Speaker 1>at the loose Hold Group, joining us on the phone

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:43.880
<v Speaker 1>from Minneapolis. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:34:43.880 --> 0:34:47.200
<v Speaker 1>the podcast on iTunes, soundcrowd, or Bloomberg dot com, and

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:48.920
<v Speaker 1>you can also listen to our radio show at two

0:34:48.920 --> 0:34:51.880
<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:53.480
<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News