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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mop that action all.

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Speaker 1: Right. Here we go from there, throwing in so spect.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 1: You want to pass and we are underway. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Matt Moore. I'm

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Speaker 1: today I'm joined by Action Network Director of Research Evan

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Speaker 1: Abrams for a gambling guide to the NFL twoenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five Super Bowl. Today, we're gonna go through some trends

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Speaker 1: from Evan and discuss a few things that'll be on

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Speaker 1: the top of every football better's mind in the coming

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Speaker 1: weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. Evan, how's it going.

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Speaker 2: Man, dude, it's fantas I just I love this time

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Speaker 2: of year. I mean, forget the Super Bowl, but you

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Speaker 2: got March madness around the corner. And I love analyzing

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Speaker 2: just two teams because once you get to this point,

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Speaker 2: you can dive so much deeper on so much stuff.

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Speaker 2: So can't just fantastic? Can't wait?

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Speaker 1: All right? Well, despite the fact that I am in

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Speaker 1: fact a fan of the reigning, defending two time champions

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Speaker 1: of the World, Pansas City Chiefs. We're gonna keep it even,

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Speaker 1: keel on this one and talk about this one as

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Speaker 1: objectively as possible. As the Chiefs are said to take

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Speaker 1: on tay Kwan Barkley. I guess also Jalen Hurts and

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles and one of the best rosters in

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Speaker 1: the NFL for the second time in three years, it's

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Speaker 1: sure to be a classic. Before we dive into these trends,

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Speaker 1: quick programming notes, Okay, people want to know when we're

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Speaker 1: dropping our Super Bowl props, Okay, from our predictive analytics

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Speaker 1: guys like Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, Chris Raybond, because those

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Speaker 1: guys have hit at it just the c rate in

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Speaker 1: the last few Super Bowls. We're doing these as two

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Speaker 1: sets of Wednesday live shows, all right, try to catch

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Speaker 1: these lives as the numbers they get crushed immediately, Like

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Speaker 1: the guys put these things out and I'm always like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I got a notification from Sean, and I just it's

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Speaker 1: and it's gone. Because I like helped my daughter get

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Speaker 1: out of the car, now helped her with her homework,

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Speaker 1: just like, hey, let me get the door for you up.

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Speaker 1: The numbers gone, and that's it. It's over. We'll be

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Speaker 1: going live on the Action Network YouTube channel, YouTube dot com, slash,

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, and on Twitter at Action Network HQ

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Speaker 1: Wednesday January twenty ninth and Wednesday February fifth. Okay, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do a part one at four pm Eastern with

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffon and Grant Never and then part two with

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Speaker 1: Chris Rayvaughn and Sean Kerner at six pm Eastern. So

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Speaker 1: mark your calendars. Super Bowl Props live shows next two Wednesdays,

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Speaker 1: four pm and six pm Eastern. Action Network YouTube page

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Speaker 1: and Action Network HQ on Twitter. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: into this, Evan, Where do you want to start? Man?

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Speaker 2: How could you not start with Pat? I just think

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Speaker 2: the entire Super Bowl, in the entire two weeks are

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Speaker 2: going to be just so much about Mahomes And honestly,

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Speaker 2: it's what he's done, what he could do with the

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Speaker 2: win here, the three pet there's just that is going

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Speaker 2: to be the topic of the conversation and I think

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Speaker 2: might lead to some line movement later in the week.

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Speaker 2: Maybe maybe not, We'll see about that. But I think

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Speaker 2: It's like, from like a stats point of view, when

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Speaker 2: you take Mahomes off the road, when that's like home

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Speaker 2: or neutral site games, the numbers just feel absolutely made up.

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Speaker 2: So like in January and February, Mahomes is sixteen and

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Speaker 2: two straight up in home or neutral site games, with

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Speaker 2: his losses coming against just Burrow and Brady. He's forty

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Speaker 2: four and six in that spot. In November or later

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Speaker 2: in playoff games, he's eight and no straight up and

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Speaker 2: against the spread when either an underdog or a favorite

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Speaker 2: of less than a field goal on extended rest, which

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Speaker 2: is Mahomes, but I think it's also Andy Reid since

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Speaker 2: he's had tons of success with Philly in that spot

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Speaker 2: and then has kind of brought that over. There's a

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Speaker 2: crazy stat. It's not even in here, but I believe

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Speaker 2: with him, with Mahomes and McNabb he's like twenty six

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Speaker 2: and three or something like that on extended rest. Something crazy,

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Speaker 2: But on extended rest with Mahomes during the season, Mahomes

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Speaker 2: is thirty and four straight up since twenty nineteen. The

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Speaker 2: QBS to beat him are Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 2: and Aidan O'Connell, which some confusing numbers names there, but

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Speaker 2: thirty and four is probably where the focus should be.

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Speaker 2: And we're gonna I want you to comment on all

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Speaker 2: of these, but I got two more and then we

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Speaker 2: can kind of go back for a second here. So

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Speaker 2: Mahomes is seventeen and three straight up, eighty five percent

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Speaker 2: in his playoff career blanket career playoffs eighty five percent

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Speaker 2: win percentage is second best minimum ten starts since nineteen fifty,

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Speaker 2: behind just Bart Starr, who is nine and one in

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Speaker 2: his playof career. So basically, I mean you're comparing him

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Speaker 2: to who the trophies are named after. That feels like

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Speaker 2: every stat is kind of hit. It's him and Lombardi

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Speaker 2: or him and Pallas, and it just that's kind of

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Speaker 2: where we end up. And then the last one, and

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Speaker 2: to me, I mean, you take straight up and against

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Speaker 2: the spread is two separate things. Usually obviously, when the

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Speaker 2: spread is really small, money line becomes just as important,

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Speaker 2: but this one is just stupid. On the road or

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Speaker 2: neutral site, Mahomes has started twenty six games either as

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Speaker 2: an underdog or a favorite of three points or less

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Speaker 2: regular season and playoffs his entire career. He's twenty one

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Speaker 2: four and one against the spread in those games that's

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Speaker 2: eighty four percent. So I mean all up and down here.

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Speaker 2: I mean the numbers are stupid. What I think gives him,

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Speaker 2: like the title of the Grim Reaper, which people talk about,

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Speaker 2: is the fact that a lot of these numbers, when

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Speaker 2: you talk away from home, is just absolutely it's mind

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Speaker 2: numbing to see how many times he beats people in

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Speaker 2: other people's building or in this situation, just a neutral

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Speaker 2: site which he's five and zero. But take whatever you

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Speaker 2: want here, Matt, dissect it, hit it, give it back.

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Speaker 2: What do you got?

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Speaker 1: So? I think the interesting question when it comes to

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Speaker 1: some of this stuff is, you know, listener of the

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Speaker 1: Favorites constantly and listener of the Action Network podcast, I'm

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Speaker 1: well versed in these numbers as far as how good

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is as a three point favorite or an underdog.

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Speaker 1: The question I think kind of here is how do

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Speaker 1: we keep winding up in spots where when the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: have played so many close games the past two years

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Speaker 1: like this has not been an impressive dominant run, which,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I would mention what happens if they

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Speaker 1: do have a dominant run in the coming years, But

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Speaker 1: this has not been a dominant team the last two seasons,

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Speaker 1: and yet they win all these close games over and

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Speaker 1: over and over again, which in part it feeds into

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Speaker 1: this complicated kind of matrix that we have where it's

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Speaker 1: like you can't power rate them that highly because they're metrics.

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Speaker 1: They're not winning by margin, so they're not racking up

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Speaker 1: huge yard advantages. Their YPP is not going to be

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Speaker 1: out of this world. Mahomes's numbers this season were pedestrian

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Speaker 1: at best, at least until the last probably six games

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Speaker 1: of the season, and yet they're consistently beating these numbers, right,

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Speaker 1: which is I think it's pretty fascinating that I would

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Speaker 1: wager to bet that before the playoffs, even four five,

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Speaker 1: five weeks ago, that the gap on these two teams

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Speaker 1: and power rating would not have landed on Chiefs as

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Speaker 1: a favorite. And in any other case, in that situation

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Speaker 1: like you have, you would have to be like, well,

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Speaker 1: if I'm getting you know, they're laying one and a

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Speaker 1: half and the Eagles are power rated higher, there inherently

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Speaker 1: should be a favorite on neutral, which is why, like,

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Speaker 1: I'm very curious about your thoughts on the number about

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Speaker 1: do you think this number is just like a base

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Speaker 1: power rating based off a upgrade for playoffs, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Or is this just like the books being like we

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Speaker 1: know we're never we we are we know if we

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Speaker 1: put him as a dog, we're going to get absolutely

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Speaker 1: hammered and it's going to be way too uneven. Even

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Speaker 1: if the sharps are come back in on the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: and we can take a little bit off of that

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Speaker 1: by making them this number of favorite. Like what's your

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Speaker 1: thought on the number when you look at these type

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Speaker 1: of figures that you've got on the trends and where

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Speaker 1: this number pops out to.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it can't go two points either way in

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Speaker 2: my opinion, and I think it's two points case's way,

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Speaker 2: because well, I mean, think about this, Philadelphia just scored

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Speaker 2: fifty five points in the Conference Championship, most points ever

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Speaker 2: for any team entering a Super Bowl, and they're listed

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Speaker 2: as an underdog. Like I this was kind of proposed earlier,

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Speaker 2: but I wonder how many of the I think there's

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Speaker 2: ten teams eleven with Philly who've scored forty plus in

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Speaker 2: the Conference Championship. I wonder how many of those eleven

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Speaker 2: teams were underdogs in the Super Bowl. Because you assume

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Speaker 2: off of that type of performance hard to try to

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Speaker 2: take the other side. And now you're thinking about last

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Speaker 2: year's Super Bowl, where I mean it was basically Mahomes

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Speaker 2: against the Avengers. I mean that was the way it

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Speaker 2: was built up. I mean San Francisco had so much

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Speaker 2: talent and so many players, and up and down whenever

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Speaker 2: anyone was like I like San Francisco in this game,

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Speaker 2: you started listing position groups and players and you're like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: this is the better team. This year, I think it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit more even like I think Case does

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Speaker 2: an okay job kind of in each of the position

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Speaker 2: group categories, but I think Philly is better in most

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Speaker 2: of them. And I think up and down, it's just

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Speaker 2: it's Dynasty versus Avengers kind of again in some way,

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Speaker 2: shape or form. And I think we made the Avengers

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Speaker 2: favorites last year Mahomes won, so I think this year

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Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, we'll go one and a half this way.

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Speaker 2: But I just don't think in this scenario. And also,

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Speaker 2: these two teams haven't played, so we haven't seen these

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Speaker 2: versions against each other. Maybe that would have had an impact,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's Dynasty laying one and a half

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Speaker 2: against an Avengers type. And again, the weird thing about

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Speaker 2: it is is hurts from a passing point of view.

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Speaker 2: It hasn't even been close to an Avenger. He's not

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Speaker 2: a part of the team at this point. It's the

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Speaker 2: running game in the defense, which has done almost all

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Speaker 2: of the work for Philly. Now, it looked better in

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Speaker 2: the Washington game, but maybe that says more against Washington

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Speaker 2: about Washington's defense than it does against KC. And what

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Speaker 2: you know they're going to put forward here the one

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Speaker 2: stat I'll give you before I toss it back, which

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Speaker 2: kind of at least it kind of told me something

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Speaker 2: because I was curious. So I was looking at Mahomes

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Speaker 2: versus pass defenses two hundred yards or less. So basically,

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Speaker 2: these really good Philly pass defenses like they're at one

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Speaker 2: eighty range including the playoffs, I think. So he's twenty

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Speaker 2: three and three straight up career versus teams two hundred

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Speaker 2: yards or less pass defense, twelve straight wins, last loss

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Speaker 2: October of twenty twenty two against Buffalo. The crazier note

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Speaker 2: to me is, I said, okay, well, a pass defense

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Speaker 2: who allows two hundred yards per game or less. In

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Speaker 2: September or October, it means nothing because you just haven't

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Speaker 2: faced enough teams. He's twelve and oh in November or

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Speaker 2: later with that stat and that, to me is the

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Speaker 2: one where I say to myself, Okay, well maybe it

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter how good Philly's past defense is. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna play the game. He's gonna play, and he's

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Speaker 2: gonna have two weeks to do it. The craziest thing is,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw this tweet, but basically

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Speaker 2: Greg Russo from Buffalo said that Casey was running plays

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Speaker 2: this weekend that they hadn't seen on film. Like I

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Speaker 2: truly believe maybe the Super Bowl two years ago doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean anything, Like maybe there is an entire new game

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Speaker 2: plan here from Andy Reid and Mahomes to kind of

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Speaker 2: just give Philly something that they can't study. And I

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Speaker 2: think that's the worry. Like that scramble that we talked

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Speaker 2: to in the Buffalo game was just not something that

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Speaker 2: they'd ever seen before. So I think that is the

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Speaker 2: worry here, and that is the worry with rest.

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Speaker 1: I said that almost immediately when they started running the

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Speaker 1: RPOs on the first drive, I was like, I've watched

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Speaker 1: every single Chiefs out this year and I was like,

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Speaker 1: I've never what is this? Where did this come from?

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Speaker 1: Like he hasn't hitting those slants at an RPO all

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Speaker 1: year and then bam bam bam bam bam all the

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Speaker 1: way down the field. It is wild also that I

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Speaker 1: have consumed so much Chiefs content and yet those stats

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Speaker 1: that unil listed still floor me where I'm like, what,

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Speaker 1: that's crazy. I think I've talked about a lot about

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Speaker 1: this with Brandon Anderson too, about my belief on Mahomes's. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: I think there are certain quarterbacks who excel in particular

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Speaker 1: in high leverage situations and that's like third down and

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Speaker 1: six or more, right, like who can complete those kinds

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Speaker 1: of plays because most of the analytics models are going

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Speaker 1: to describe a lot of that as luck based, because

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Speaker 1: over the wide swath of time, it's like, well, you're

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Speaker 1: not going to be successful ultimately in those because we

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Speaker 1: have this huge sample of every other human. But if

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Speaker 1: you specifically are good in those environments, and I would

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Speaker 1: actually say CJ. Stroud very much fits into the category

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Speaker 1: of guys that are good in those categories, which is

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Speaker 1: why I have amount of fear for CJ. Stroud. I

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Speaker 1: think that's part of why these like small spreads. It's like,

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Speaker 1: all right, if you're inside of a it's not a

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Speaker 1: coin flip, right, it's fifty five forty five, but it

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Speaker 1: is within this margin where it's that's what you're talking

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Speaker 1: about as far as a band, and if you're able

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Speaker 1: to stretch that anywhere considerably, it turns this from what

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Speaker 1: is not a coin flip but a slide advantage into

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Speaker 1: a significantly more despite the fact that you're not stretching

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Speaker 1: it beyond the boundary of like two score games. So

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Speaker 1: he wins all these one score games, but he wins

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Speaker 1: one score games that are expected to be one half

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Speaker 1: score games. And that to me is maybe like how

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Speaker 1: this kind of construct comes out if we try and

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Speaker 1: put some sort of analysis to these trends other than

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Speaker 1: just being like you should bet Mahomes is less than

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Speaker 1: a three three point favorite.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think I'll say two things. We talk

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Speaker 2: about Mahomes and these tight spreads, and it's you know,

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Speaker 2: the numbers are there. I mean, from Jalen Hurts' point

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Speaker 2: of view, with a spread of four points are less

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Speaker 2: either way. So minus four to plus four, he's thirteen

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Speaker 2: to nine road neutral and nine and four over the

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Speaker 2: last two seasons. So I mean, not terrible numbers, not

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Speaker 2: like he's you know, not showing up in these games

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Speaker 2: that he should win in certain circumstances. And nine and

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Speaker 2: four last two seasons I think is pretty good and

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Speaker 2: probably you know, puts him up there if I had

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Speaker 2: to look at the leader board. The other note I'll

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Speaker 2: say is this with Mahomes, at least from what we've

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Speaker 2: seen up to this point, and it's the reason why

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Speaker 2: it's probably just dumb at this point to list him

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Speaker 2: as an underdog. So since twenty eighteen, in the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: teams trailing minus one to minus eight, it's a one

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Speaker 2: possession entering the fourth quarter or overtime, Chiefs have had

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Speaker 2: twelve drives. So with Mahomes twenty eighteen playoffs, down one possession,

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter, overtime, twelve drives, they've scored on eleven of them.

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Speaker 2: But when you talk about the other teams on that list,

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Speaker 2: So just if you sort it since twenty eighteen by

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Speaker 2: number of scores, so the Rams are second five of thirteen,

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Speaker 2: the Bills are four of ten, the Eagles of two

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Speaker 2: or nine, two of nine, Patriots or two of five,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. You get the point. To me,

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Speaker 2: it's just you can't do anything, and you can't do

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Speaker 2: anything butt list them as a favorite in this spot

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Speaker 2: because they've just shown you so many times that they

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Speaker 2: come back, or they hold the lead, or they ice

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Speaker 2: the game. I mean, there's just so many different circumstances,

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Speaker 2: but that eleven of twelve is just it's stupid.

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Speaker 1: It just that is, And it's why I think it's

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Speaker 1: so frustrating.

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Speaker 2: I think for because.

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Speaker 1: Simon said this about the models right on the favorites,

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Speaker 1: It's like, how do you not model them lower based

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Speaker 1: off of the fact that, like everyone's like, he can't

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Speaker 1: keep getting away with this, Like you should not be

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Speaker 1: able to continue this because it should ultimately come down

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Speaker 1: to like this has to be noise or variants or luck.

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Speaker 1: You can't be this consistently good in things that are

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Speaker 1: this tight. And that just that, I think is something

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Speaker 1: you have to decide as a better is whatever it

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Speaker 1: is that you believe in, whatever that variable is that

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Speaker 1: equates the gap between expected results and how good he

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Speaker 1: is in these scenarios is what should guide your bad

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the Avengers, Well, I'll tell you Saquon Barkley

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Speaker 1: is the Hulk and four and Iron Man and Captain America. Sure,

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Speaker 1: Black Widow two, let's just throw her in there as well.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely ridiculous. Tell me some stats about Saquon.

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Speaker 2: So looking specifically at Saquon, and I think it's and

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Speaker 2: I was trying to think about this when entering like

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Speaker 2: this mine process of Philly versus Casey. How could you

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Speaker 2: quantify the rusher of Saquon's ability in this type of

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Speaker 2: game or even how many times has a rusher like

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Speaker 2: him made this game? So he's the eleventh running back

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Speaker 2: to make the Super Bowl after rushing for fifteen hundred

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Speaker 2: yards plus that season. I think that's you know, I

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Speaker 2: mean though, of those other ten teams, eight and two

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Speaker 2: straight up, So off the bat, it sounds pretty good.

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Speaker 2: The two losses Sean Alexander in two thousand and five,

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Speaker 2: Jamal Anderson in nineteen ninety eight, So I mean, it

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Speaker 2: does happen. I think the interesting part is when you

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Speaker 2: talk about his rushing props. So I believe last time

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Speaker 2: I looked it was one twelve to one fifteen range,

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Speaker 2: and last week it got up to one thirty. He finished,

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Speaker 2: I think he closed one twenty four range and finished

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Speaker 2: under that. But in a Super Bowl, we haven't seen

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Speaker 2: a running back go for one twenty plus since Michael

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Speaker 2: Pittman in two thousand and three. Oh there's a name,

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Speaker 2: So I mean, listen, it's just it's been a while

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Speaker 2: since someone exploded in that game. That I mean. It

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Speaker 2: was crazy to even look that up and say to myself, well,

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Speaker 2: it's crazy, we haven't seen someone in that distance do that.

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Speaker 2: But I wanted to kind of take this to one

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Speaker 2: other level with Saquon because I was curious, so of

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Speaker 2: those ten running backs that went for fifteen hundred plus yards,

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Speaker 2: how many of those teams with that running back had

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Speaker 2: any Super Bowl experience? And then I did even went

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Speaker 2: I went further. So you've got Sirianni and Hertz twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four Eagles. They went to the Super Bowl two

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Speaker 2: years prior, so they're going to be number one in

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Speaker 2: this process. When you keep going back two thousand and four,

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Speaker 2: Corey Dillon went for fifteen hundred. Belichick and Brady won

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Speaker 2: the year prior, they had experience. They won the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl that year with Dylan. You keep going back nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety eight, Shanahan and Lway they had Terrell Davis, they

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Speaker 2: won their year prior ninety eight, they won in ninety seven,

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Speaker 2: they won a ninety eight as well. Nineteen eighty eight,

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Speaker 2: you've got Roger Craig who runs for fifteen hundred plus yards.

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Speaker 2: You've got Walsh and Montana they had won twice prior.

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Speaker 2: They win in eighty eight as well. So to me,

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Speaker 2: I think the experience for the team going through this

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Speaker 2: process and adding Sae Kwon Barkley, who I believe was

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Speaker 2: I think it was Miles Sanders, who is the running

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Speaker 2: back in the previous Super Bowl. It's a massive upgrade.

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Speaker 2: Now there's other parts to the game. But I was

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Speaker 2: trying to figure out, like, how do you quantify having

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Speaker 2: the experience of being here while also adding such a

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Speaker 2: massive piece, whether it's in the off season or maybe

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Speaker 2: the running back had been for a while and was

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Speaker 2: having a great season. But to me, that's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 2: Now an incredibly small sample size and just one layer

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Speaker 2: of the game. But that's the way I looked at it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's interesting that you brought these

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Speaker 1: kind of numbers because like several of these won the

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Speaker 1: year prior, right, Like it's back to back appearances. But

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Speaker 1: I also think that that's notable because it's kind of like, look,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles did have a second half, fourth quarter lead

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Speaker 1: over the Chiefs the last time that they played, like

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Speaker 1: they didn't get smoked by Kansas City, and now they

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Speaker 1: have the most dominant rushing force that we've seen in

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Speaker 1: years where the stat site I love most for the

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Speaker 1: NFL RBSDM running backs still don't matter. I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: like you might need to change the name to like

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Speaker 1: running backs except for sa Kuon Barclay still don't matter.

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Speaker 1: Like that's how dominant he's been this year. It's absolutely ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: And then like there's that part of me where it's

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Speaker 1: like if you ask me, like as a Chiefs fan, like, hey,

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Speaker 1: how are you gonna stop him? I'm like, I have

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Speaker 1: no idea, no clue, probably won't probably have to outscore

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Speaker 1: because it's such a dominant performance, and like I do

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Speaker 1: kind of wonder if you know, again, I always look

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Speaker 1: at these things from the perspective of the models that

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Speaker 1: drive betting behavior from the sharp groups in contrast to

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Speaker 1: how the lines are set right, how much of that

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Speaker 1: is like is there still kind of because of the

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Speaker 1: running back stigma? If there's a little bit of maybe

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Speaker 1: a lag in properly raiding Philly because of this, Because

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Speaker 1: you look back there too, you know there's there wins

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Speaker 1: in these three playoff games driven entirely, not entirely, almost

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Speaker 1: entirely right offensively, at least by Saquon, where it's just

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Speaker 1: I mean, first play from scrimmage, he's just he's gone.

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Speaker 1: So that to me is kind of the question here

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Speaker 1: is like is there a capacity here for market evaluations?

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Speaker 1: And this trend to kind of like reflect that right

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Speaker 1: where it's like, look, if you have a running back

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Speaker 1: this good and you're good, and your quarterback's good enough

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Speaker 1: for you to reach the super Bowl, you're in a

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Speaker 1: pretty good spot.

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Speaker 2: He's second in MVP odds. So I thought that was

407
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Speaker 2: something else I wanted to look up this week before

408
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Speaker 2: I put my article out next week, which I'll have

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Speaker 2: like updated numbers and Gatorade and all the fun stuff

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Speaker 2: in it. But I wanted to look at when was

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Speaker 2: the last time you had a player rated over the

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Speaker 2: quarterback and how many times in history as that happened.

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Speaker 2: Because Saquon right now second MVP with Jalen Hurts third,

414
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Speaker 2: I think is kind of telling and also, I mean

415
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Speaker 2: Saquon's minus two hundred anytime touchdown, plus they're telling you

416
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Speaker 2: he's gonna rush for like a buck twenty or so

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Speaker 2: based off of the over under, and they're underdogs in

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Speaker 2: the game. So it's an interesting equation in terms of

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Speaker 2: the matchup, and I think how scared everyone is of

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Speaker 2: the Grim Reaper on the other side. It's weird because

421
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Speaker 2: Philly has all these signs of a relatively dominant favorite

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Speaker 2: in this game, and then you just have the experience

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Speaker 2: on the other side. The fourth quarter, it doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: what the score is, We're going to figure it out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I mean that's the thing, right alongside whatever

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Speaker 1: folks feel or other factors that might contribute to the

427
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Speaker 1: Chiefs wins. Let's you mentioned this earlier, the Eagles putting

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Speaker 1: up fifty five points in the conference championship. Personally love

429
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Speaker 1: to see that. As a Chiefs fan, I love to

430
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 1: see it because I want these gotdi performances. In the NBA,

431
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 1: there's nothing I like better than fading a team that

432
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 1: hits twenty five or more threes in a game. In

433
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: the very next time that they go out they score

434
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty. That to me is like, oh, baby,

435
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: let's go. This is a great time to come back

436
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: the other way. But I am kind of curious, all right,

437
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: we've got this dominant performance by the Eagles in the

438
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: NFC chance, like, that's a huge game. What does history

439
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: kind of tell us about this level of dominance.

440
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, so top three scorers in terms of points in

441
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: the conference championship would be the Eagles at the top,

442
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: But then you had the Panthers in twenty fifteen to

443
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: sixteen and then the Bills in ninety ninety one scoring

444
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: more than forty five points in the conference championship. Both

445
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 2: those teams did lose in the Super Bowl. I think

446
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 2: it's interesting, though, to kind of take a step back

447
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 2: even teams to score forty plus conference championship three and

448
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: seven in the Super Bowl. So I do think usually

449
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 2: and this was something I think I want to put

450
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 2: in the article for when I do it next week,

451
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 2: But I wonder how many of those teams again closed

452
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 2: as underdogs in that game, because you usually really see inflation,

453
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 2: especially with this much time for the public to bet

454
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 2: on the team. We just scored fifty five frickin points,

455
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: But now that team we just scored fifty five points

456
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: is actually getting points in this game, which feels like

457
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 2: a little bit of an outlier in the data set,

458
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 2: and I'm interested in looking at that. I'll take it

459
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 2: two steps further and then I'll toss it back to you.

460
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 2: So number one again, just curious. Forty plus points in

461
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 2: conference championship and no turnovers, and that's no turnovers in

462
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: the playoffs leading to the Super Bowl. That would be

463
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four or twenty five Eagles. The Falcons did

464
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 2: that in that twenty seventeen season, and then the five Patriots.

465
00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: So those are three teams really in terms of absolutely

466
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: no turnovers, pretty much dominant games. Atlanta did lead twenty

467
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 2: eight to three in that Super Bowl. It did lose,

468
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 2: but it's still a pretty dominant performance. If you could

469
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 2: tell me, I bet Philly and they were up twenty

470
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 2: to three, I take that, and then Phil and then

471
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: New England. To know, five ironically beats Philly in the

472
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. So that's a circumstance there. I have won more.

473
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: But any thoughts, Yeah, I mean, I think it's fascinating

474
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: that they're three and seven straight up in the Super

475
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: Bowl and they score forty six points right like that

476
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: to me, is like really crazy. I think the turnover stuff,

477
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 1: I think, honestly, I'd be very used to get stucky

478
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: thoughts on it. You can listen the action that weork

479
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: podcasts and His and His Super Role preview with six

480
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: Pack to kind of get the views on that. But like,

481
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: I'm very curious about the turnover kind of expectation stuff here.

482
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: Whenever you have this kind of expect like last week, right,

483
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, like the Bills recover I think one hundred

484
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: and fifty of their own fumbles if I recall correctly,

485
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: and you know, Mahomes loses the one, and it was

486
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: like that could be a really killer one. And turnovers

487
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: have usually are such a big turning point in these games,

488
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: and there's a reason that the luck is always kind

489
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 1: of ascribed to those things. But again, like you know,

490
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: that's kind of the margin here is like can you

491
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: create it? And then there's probably also like a capacity

492
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: here for thinking about which defense is more likely to

493
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: create turnovers, which I think is like the Chiefs have

494
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 1: struggled to create turnovers this year. They just haven't been

495
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 1: great in that department. Meanwhile, since the Eagles defensive line

496
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: was crafted in Hell and brought forth to destroy all

497
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: of us. They're pretty good at creating havoc. So I'm

498
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: you know, i'd be curious to hear about havoc rates

499
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 1: and those kinds of things. But I do think that

500
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: overall forty if you told me how do teams that

501
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 1: scored forty plus points in the conference championship do in

502
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, my gut instinct would have been it's

503
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: got to be the other way. There's always kind of

504
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: a regression point. So that three and seven straight up

505
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, that to me is kind of

506
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 1: it matches what I would expect based off of experience,

507
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: less so than kind of the common sense, Oh, they're dominant,

508
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: they do pretty well, So I think it's interesting to

509
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: go ahead and go one step further for me.

510
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the Eagles have won six straight game entering

511
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Overall, teams entering the Super Bowl on

512
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: a five plus game winning streak nine and six ATS

513
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 2: since two thousand and three, But more importantly, when their

514
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: opponent isn't on that type of streak entering the Super Bowl,

515
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 2: they're actually six and three ATS with them covering four

516
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: in a row. Now, you just saw the Chiefs do

517
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 2: it twice because they did it in twenty two and

518
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: twenty three seasons. The Bucks did it in that twenty

519
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 2: twenty one season, then the Chiefs again in nineteen twenty.

520
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 2: So it's just right now, the Chiefs aren't streaking because

521
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 2: they decided to lose in Week seventeen our week eighteen

522
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 2: against Denver and get absolutely annihilated. I mean the difference there,

523
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure. I mean, the Eagles are playing

524
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: really well. They're mostly blowing people out in this circumstance. Again, believe,

525
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: I think it's last six games, they're fifteen nothing in

526
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 2: the turnover margin, so I mean they're on an absolute

527
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 2: other planet right now. In terms of case which came

528
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: into play last week, I think I think they're twenty

529
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: five and nineteen when they lose the turnover battle with

530
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: in the last few seasons. So I mean both directions.

531
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 2: I can see how it doesn't really matter, but I do.

532
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 2: I like Philly's momentum in this circumstance. It just feels

533
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: like Hurts isn't even playing fantastic, but as a team,

534
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: they're playing their best, so it's almost like the opportunity

535
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 2: to put it together in this type of game and

536
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: you talk about turnover luck, I mean that fumble from

537
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 2: Hurts in the last Super Bowl feels like it's not

538
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 2: something that would be repeatable. And without that happening, I'm

539
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 2: not sure Casey comes back and wins that game. So

540
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: I thought, that's kind of interesting.

541
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: You don't happen to have any numbers on that nine

542
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: to six ATS on a five game straight up win

543
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: streak in the Super Bowl when they're dogs, do you.

544
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 2: I went into bet Labs, I checked it out. So

545
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 2: teams five plus game winning streak entering the Super Bowl

546
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: who actually end up as dogs in the game five

547
00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: and two ATS, and that would be the Chiefs last year,

548
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: Oh my god, the Chiefs. The year before that, the

549
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: Bucks were actually dogged to the Chiefs in the twenty

550
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,719
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one season, So those three one and then

551
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: before that two and two. But recently it's been pretty good.

552
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: I think the thing you would notice covering by five

553
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: point seven points per game, So probably some decent value

554
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 2: on the streaking team when they're listed as a dog,

555
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 2: but again small sample size, Yeah, for sure.

556
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: I just wanted to kind of get that sense of

557
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: that because it's very rare that you would have a

558
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 1: team that won five straight made the Super Bowl and

559
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: was a dog.

560
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: I mean a dog, Matt, Matt, a dog who won

561
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 2: five straight, who just come off scoring fifty five points,

562
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: who haven't scored, who haven't been in a close game,

563
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 2: and it's just it's crazy.

564
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, from a betting perspective, if the

565
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: Eagles win this game, everyone's gonna be like, of course

566
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: they won this game, like they're way better. Why didn't that?

567
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: Why did I listen to all the stupid Mahomes narrative

568
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 1: stuff exactly. The other thing I would say, though, is

569
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,239
Speaker 1: the only reason the Chiefs are not on this kind

570
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: of a streak is because they tanked. Gain they tanked

571
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: weeks eighteen, right, is because they start versus the Broncos. However,

572
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: presumably amongst those that's why I want to check out

573
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 1: the underdogs is presumably they would have played other teams

574
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: that didn't have to play their starters in week eighteen

575
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: in week sixteen seventeen either, And so there's probably in

576
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: that sample a few that were like, yeah, they didn't

577
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: play the last week of the season because they already

578
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: gotten the one seed or two seed. Interesting stuff there. Okay,

579
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: so this one is I'm gonna this is gonna test me.

580
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about my least favorite narratively discussed defensive

581
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: coordinator in the league, Vic Fangio. But before we do that,

582
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: I want you know, as we've been discussing, the stage

583
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 1: is set for Super Bowl fifty nine and the many

584
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: prop bests to come, and that means now is the

585
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. You

586
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: heard AVAM just talk about looking stuff up and bet Labs.

587
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: You get bet Labs with an Action Pro subscription.

588
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: Only.

589
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: Action Pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from our

590
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: experts like Super Bowl prop masters Sean Kerner and Chris Raybond.

591
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 1: You've got to jump on him quick, guys. If you

592
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Speaker 1: want to get the value, you got to get them

593
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Speaker 1: right when they come out, plus all the tools you

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598
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600
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601
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: off action pro. All right, Evan, let's talk about Nick

602
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 1: Fangio versus Patrick Mahomes.

603
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: All Right, this to me is kind of gray. I

604
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: see the white side, I see the black side of it.

605
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of both sides of

606
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 2: this conversation. But I will just present what I've found

607
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 2: and then you and I can kind of dissect a

608
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 2: little bit. So Fangio coach defenses have faced Mahomes eight times,

609
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: six with the Broncos and twice with the Dolphins. Mahomes

610
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: is eight and oh straight up and six and two

611
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: against the spread. In those eight games, Mahomes has thrown

612
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 2: ten touchdowns, two interceptions, sixty four percent completion percentage. So

613
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: that is mostly the positive side of this, but I

614
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 2: think there's a negative side. And even when you start

615
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 2: to think about ten touchdown passes in eight games isn't

616
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 2: exactly lighting the world on fire. But I think there's

617
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 2: just a few bullets here. So two of Mahomes's ten

618
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: lowest passing yard games in the regular season have actually

619
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 2: come against a Fangio defense. Now, granted there's a huge

620
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 2: asterisk here. Denver's offense scored fifteen total points in those

621
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 2: two games, so Mahomes didn't even play the entire time

622
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: of one of them. Most of them are casey blowouts,

623
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: but not really making Mahomes do a ton, So let

624
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: me just keep going here and then you can give

625
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: your thoughts pass yards after the catch. He's had his

626
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: first and fourth lowest career games in the regular season,

627
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 2: both against Fangio defenses, which is which means some good

628
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: tackling out there on the outsides. Bad throw percentage, which

629
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 2: is percent of off target throws per attempt. Mahomes has

630
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: had twenty one of those games at twenty three percent

631
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: or higher in his career. Three have come versus Fangio.

632
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 2: Mahomes has also had twenty negative EPA games in his career.

633
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: Two have come versus Fangio defenses, and two of the

634
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: top ten worst EPA games two against those defenses. And

635
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: then finally six of the eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes

636
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: twenty percent or higher pressure percentage, which is basically times

637
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 2: pressured per dropback. So and the one note I will

638
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: say as well, when they faced When the Chiefs faced Miami,

639
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 2: most recently, especially in the playoff game, Fangio has given

640
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: him some different stuff. There's some cover zero, there's blitzing

641
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: at odd times. I think he's trying his best, especially

642
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 2: in the games he feels outmatched with which I think

643
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 2: we can talk about this one. I'm not sure he's

644
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: gonna feel the same way maybe in this one, so

645
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: maybe the game plans a little different. But and you

646
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: also can't play cover zero the entire game. It's more

647
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: of a scheme thing to do. I just think the

648
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 2: numbers are eight to no. It's great. Mahomes wins a

649
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: ton of damn games. We know that. But I think

650
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: inside the numbers, Fangio's creative and I think, especially with

651
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 2: this defense, he's going to give him his best. But

652
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: then I come back to that twenty three and three

653
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: against you know, good pass defense stat like Mahomes always

654
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 2: figures out, it figures it out as well. I just

655
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: think this is this is gonna be a fantastic chess

656
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 2: match and something I'll want to, you know, look over

657
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: a ton of times.

658
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: The Denver games were six of these eight, right, Yeah,

659
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: And I believe Fangio has brought on as a consultant

660
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,719
Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty two Eagles. I want to say

661
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: those okayue six of them versus the Broncos, right versus

662
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in those games, you you did not have

663
00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: to score twenty four points to beat them. You got

664
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,479
Speaker 1: to twenty. This is what I was like screaming bloody

665
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: murder about for years, with how everyone would jump on

666
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: the Broncos over every year. And it's not just because

667
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: I'm a hater, though I am. I am a card carrying, certified,

668
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 1: professionally grated Broncos hater living in Colorado. But it's that legitimately,

669
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: offenses would tailor themselves in the Chiefs in particular, would

670
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: just pull the most vanilla stuff because it was like, guys,

671
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: if we score three touchdowns, this game is over. They

672
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: can't score twenty points, and so they played hyper conservative,

673
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: which I do think factors into Fangio's overall success. But

674
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: you're right that he is creative and he's better equipped

675
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: this time than ever right to be able to be like,

676
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: look if he can play too high, generate pressure with

677
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: the front four and then just mix in one extra

678
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,399
Speaker 1: rusher every now and again versus a compromise Chiefs offensive line,

679
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: Like there's absolutely a formula here for them to give

680
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 1: him a miserable day, Like the Bucks Super Bowl is

681
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: not a bad comparison here, Yeah, Like it's just not

682
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: it's not a bad comp And so I think that

683
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: there's like a there's there's elements in here. I think

684
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: the numbers are like a lot of the numbers are like, yeah,

685
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: like sometimes Mahomes' is bad games and sometimes they've come

686
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: against Fangio. I am unwilling to give him, Like the

687
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 1: conversation about him was I think overstated, But I think

688
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: it's also like this isn't like a night. The bigger

689
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: thing here, I think is if you're adding up reasons

690
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: to shoot the moon and try and take a shot

691
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: on the Eagles, which by the way, they're only a

692
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: one and a half point dog, But if you're trying

693
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: to like actually bet against Mahomes, like that does play

694
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 1: part of it, which is you don't have to feel

695
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: bad about Fangio as a defensive coordinator. I think despite

696
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: that oh to eight straight up record, he wasn't in

697
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: a position to like they weren't on the same class

698
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: level in Miami or in Denver, and this is the

699
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 1: first time he's had that opportunity.

700
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 2: I think the two stats I take out of it,

701
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 2: the bad throw percentage I think is interesting twenty one

702
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 2: games twenty three percent or higher three versus Fangio. And

703
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 2: that leads to the last one, which I think is

704
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: kind of interesting, which is the six of eight games

705
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: ers Fangio twenty percent pressure percentage. I think the two

706
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: correlate with each other. I think not running the blitz

707
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: getting as many people in his face as possible, while

708
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: not putting the extra pass rusher there will be vital

709
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 2: in trying to get him kind of scrambling around and

710
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,919
Speaker 2: possibly making a mistake. So that's what I've got there.

711
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: You want to go to the last one?

712
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, one more, and it's about the guy. I think

713
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 1: that everybody's got the biggest questions about going into this matchup,

714
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 1: despite a pretty good week last week. Yeah.

715
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 2: I don't even think this is a you know, crazy trend,

716
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: because it's one we've been talking about and we've seen everywhere.

717
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 2: But I do think it's like mildly important in terms

718
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 2: of the handicap. And we had mentioned this earlier about

719
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 2: you know, when we talked about the rushing stat with Barkley.

720
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,479
Speaker 2: The fact that Sirianni and Hurts have been here before. Well,

721
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 2: Hurts is the first quarterback since Jim Kelly in ninety

722
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 2: one to make it to a second Super Bowl after

723
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: losing his first. So that's nineteen quarterbacks who haven't been

724
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 2: able to do it. Now, It's been thirty four years

725
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 2: since a quarterback has had a second chance of winning

726
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: the Big One again after the loss. So just crazy

727
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 2: to think about, honestly, going through one by one, how

728
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 2: many couldn't get back now. Obviously we're in the middle

729
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 2: of a bunch of these careers. Like Burrow lost his first,

730
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 2: you know, we have to see if he gets back there.

731
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: So I think there's lots of chances we could see

732
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: this again. But Hurts right now breaks the streak. So

733
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 2: I do look at second Super Bowl appearance as kind

734
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: of an interesting handicapping angle because I think we always

735
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: talk about first experience is a little bit strange for

736
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 2: people with the media the two weeks, like, there's just

737
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: a lot different about this game. So obviously Philly's been

738
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: through it before, and forget being through it before. I mean,

739
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 2: they've played really well in the game, so maybe there

740
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 2: is some things that we'll hear through quotes in the

741
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 2: press that Sirianni will do differently, but through the been,

742
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: through the the whole process. Here, so three quarterbacks have

743
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 2: won it all in their second career Super Bowl when

744
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 2: facing a quarterback with more experience in the game. So

745
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 2: that's twenty twelve Eli over Brady, two thousand and nine,

746
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger beat Kurt Warner who had been there one more

747
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: time than him, and then nineteen ninety four Aikman beats

748
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: Jim Kelly, who was there seventy five thousand times. Only

749
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: Eli of that bunch was actually an underdog, which is

750
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 2: where Hurtz finds himself here. So, you know, does it

751
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 2: mean a ton I don't think there's in that stat

752
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: a handicap. I think the handicap is how much does

753
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,720
Speaker 2: this help or hurt I think it helps Hurts being

754
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 2: there having done it before, and now I mean he's

755
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 2: an underdog in the game, so I mean, if you

756
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 2: think he's gonna win, you could even grab a pointer

757
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 2: or two there. I do think it means something.

758
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's interesting. I do think I think

759
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: that's as you know, the facing the same team I

760
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: think is the problem right where it's like lost to

761
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: them before you lost to them because we saw them.

762
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 2: You think it helps, it hurts.

763
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: I think it hurts. Oh wow, I think it hurts

764
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: them a little bit. I think getting I think the

765
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 1: media side is like a huge advantage of not being

766
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: overwhelmed by the absolute psychotic circus that is Super Bowl

767
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 1: media week and the like all the events and now

768
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 1: the corporate partners and just like the absolute chaos that

769
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 1: that's gotta That entails being able to just like all right,

770
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 1: I know how to handle this, I know what to

771
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: say no to. We can get through this. It'll be fine,

772
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: and like knowing what to expect going in. I think

773
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: that that's that does help for sure. I think on

774
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 1: the other side of it is I was here, we

775
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 1: had a lead, I couldn't get it done. I have

776
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: to do with this again versus them, That to me,

777
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: I think is a it's like a weird mental edge

778
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: of you're building a narrative. But I think just from

779
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: a comfort perspective, which I think is if we're talking

780
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: about home field advantage, right, like that's the whole thing

781
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 1: is you get to sleep in your bed, there's less travel. Sure,

782
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: I think going through it before is definitely an advantage here.

783
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 2: The crazy thing about it is is that you watch

784
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: these Super Bowls again and like you watch back Chiefs Eagles,

785
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: and you say to yourself, well, they're doing the exact

786
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: same thing. How much is Casey actually going to be

787
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 2: taking anything old into this game plan? Because I mean

788
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 2: I mentioned this earlier, but like they bring out all

789
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 2: these new packages, especially against Buffalo, and Buffalo is watching

790
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: all this tape and then getting to the game and

791
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: saying to themselves, we haven't seen any of this. I mean,

792
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 2: this is brand new, and this is you know, the

793
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 2: design run by Mahomes, like all these things they're preparing

794
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,959
Speaker 2: for the matchup. I just don't think Casey's a real,

795
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: let's bring something back type team, which I do think

796
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: makes this a little bit more difficult. But nonetheless, I

797
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: think I kind of like the fact that it's a

798
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: rematch matchup and there's also parts we can go back

799
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 2: to to kind of learn, but also realizing that Casey's

800
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: just going to look at this kind of independently, which

801
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 2: is kind of fascinating.

802
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 1: Eagles were fourth in defensive EPA the year they made

803
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: this Super Bowl. They are third this year, same team

804
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 1: they were, they are sixth this year after being believe

805
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: top five when they made it the year in two thousand, Yeah,

806
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 1: they were third in twenty twenty two. This to me

807
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 1: is like what a lot of this crux comes down to,

808
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: is do you believe that this Eagles team is substantially better?

809
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: Not only Like one of the ways I've actually kind

810
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 1: of looked at it is is this Eagles team better

811
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: than the Niners team that the Chiefs faced last year?

812
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 1: And you can say no, but and so then the

813
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: question is is this Chiefs team better or worse than

814
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 1: last year's? And I think both of those are fair

815
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: questions On paper, I think it's hard to argue that

816
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, who actually have receivers with actual opposable thumbs,

817
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: is worse than last year's. But I think that's like

818
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: a key question in trying to navigate all this. But

819
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: the trends are fascinating. I will ask you this question, Evan.

820
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: You don't have to give a pick here, but with

821
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 1: all what you do, the trends working, Trends work, and

822
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: it's such a great job that you do based on

823
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: the historical trends. Does his line feel right to you?

824
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,440
Speaker 2: It definitely does. But I think we've talked about it

825
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 2: a bunch of times during this pod at different areas.

826
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 2: I think the Mahomes fact it's Mahomes against the Eagles.

827
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: It doesn't feel like the Chiefs versus the Eagles, because

828
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 2: if it was Chiefs versus Eagles, the Eagles would be favored. Yeah,

829
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: And that to me, and that's why I start out

830
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 2: this week doing all this research, kind of feeling like

831
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 2: who do I personally like in the game. Like the

832
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 2: trends are a few percentage points to me of the puzzle.

833
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 2: There's a lot other things, like we talked about the

834
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: fangio and there's a lot of things to kind of

835
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: dissect here. It's gonna be hard for me to avoid

836
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 2: After I took the Chiefs in the AAFC Championship game

837
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,759
Speaker 2: and I like them against Buffalo, it's gonna be hard

838
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 2: for me to avoid Philly here. I think they're better.

839
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think it's gonna be interesting. I think

840
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: one thing that I think is very notable in these

841
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: things is we talked about the Saquon factor, right, and

842
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: all those trends and his incredible season and how good

843
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: that offense was last week. A lot of it is

844
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: when we talk about the inexplicable nature of the Chiefs wins.

845
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 1: A great one is like why do teams stop running

846
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 1: against them? Why do teams not just commit to the run.

847
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 1: This is what killed Stucky last year in the Ravens

848
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 1: in the AFC Championship game. Was like, if you just

849
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: run the ball, you can run on them, and they

850
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: just didn't. And then last week is another great example

851
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: of this. Josh Allen comes out and on that first

852
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 1: drive they're slinging like you're trying to pass on. When

853
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: they settled down and they were running, that's when they

854
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: got back into the game and had chance to win.

855
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 1: So a lot of it's just like, do you think

856
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: for me, you talked about Mahomes versus the Eagles and

857
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 1: these kind of things. For me, it very much is

858
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: it's Saquon Hurts and Sirianni versus Reid and Mahomes.

859
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 2: My film with Saquon is kind of simple. Though. His

860
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: over under for carry is twenty two and a half.

861
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 2: If that overhits, I think Philly wins. Like twenty two

862
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 2: and a half is a lot of carries. That's a

863
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,439
Speaker 2: big projection. But to me, if they do the right

864
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 2: thing and give him the ball, and give him the opportunities.

865
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 2: You're also most likely going to bleed more clock on

866
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 2: the other side, give Mahomes kind of you know, less opportunities.

867
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 2: So I feel like that is a little correlated. Now,

868
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 2: obviously you run the ball more when you have the lead.

869
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:28,879
Speaker 2: One thing we also haven't seen is Philly played from

870
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 2: behind a ton, which would put a lot of pressure

871
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 2: on Hurts, which, you know, other than the Washington game

872
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 2: has looked pretty poor in a lot of these different circumstances,

873
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 2: So at one point someone's going to be behind in

874
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 2: this one. Obviously, we feel really good about Kansas City

875
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,760
Speaker 2: when they're behind. I think Philly is the bigger question

876
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 2: for sure.

877
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: It could be great you want bet against Mahomes and

878
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: then have to deal with it if you're wrong, or

879
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 1: you want to miss a great chance maybe to finally

880
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: be on the right side in fading Mahomes. All right,

881
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: that I'll do it here on the Action Network podcast

882
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty five Super Bowl Gambling Guide, I'm

883
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: at Moore. Thanks to Evan for joining me today. Don't

884
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 1: forget to download the free award winning Action Network app

885
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 1: to see more from all of our Action Network contributors

886
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: plus our live shows and you can track your own picks.

887
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: Check out the free Action Network Discord server to chop

888
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 1: it up with experts like Sean Kerner and fellow gamblers before, after,

889
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: and during games for any sport, Just visit Discord dot gg,

890
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 1: slash Action Network or follow the link in the podcast

891
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,280
Speaker 1: episode description. Remember to mark your calendars. Super Bowl Props

892
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: live shows this Wednesday and next Wednesday at four and

893
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: at six pm Eastern on the Action Network YouTube page

894
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 1: at at YouTube dot com, slash the Action Network, and

895
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 1: at Action Network HQ on Twitter. Enjoy the lead up

896
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl and good luck with all your bets.

897
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: We'll see you guys again next time on the Action

898
00:45:46,960 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: Network podcast. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

899
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,280
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

900
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

901
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler