WEBVTT - MLB Playoff Preview | 2026 0:00:11.030 --> 0:00:13.970 His first offering just a bit outside. 0:00:14.050 --> 0:00:15.990 Here's a drive in a deep left field by Castellanos. 0:00:16.090 --> 0:00:17.140 It will be a home run. Oh my God, deep 0:00:17.180 --> 0:00:18.730 to right field. 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:21.000 Way up there. 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:26.790 My, oh my. And look who's coming up. 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:28.600 You talk about a roll of the dice. 0:00:29.140 --> 0:00:29.680 This is it. 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:32.580 Here's the payoff pitch. 0:00:32.979 --> 0:00:38.839 Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Network's Major League Baseball betting podcast. 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:45.350 This is your 2026 MLB Playoffs Betting Preview. I'm Colin Whitchurch, 0:00:45.909 --> 0:00:50.129 joined by Action Network Senior MLB Analyst Sean Zarrillo, as 0:00:50.190 --> 0:00:53.590 well as our old friend Anthony DeBundo of The Ringer. 0:00:54.390 --> 0:00:57.810 We're going to break down the entire MLB postseason, look 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:02.400 at some futures, look at some teams we're buying, some 0:01:02.420 --> 0:01:05.300 teams we're selling. Take a look at a little bit 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:09.160 of these first four wildcard series that are starting on Tuesday. 0:01:09.180 --> 0:01:12.440 We're recording this Monday morning. Still a lot of pitching 0:01:12.500 --> 0:01:17.040 uncertainty in those series, but we'll talk about those. If 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:22.870 you're looking for more bets, more action on a game-by-game standpoint, 0:01:22.890 --> 0:01:25.830 we're going to be recording our Tuesday Best Bets episode 0:01:25.850 --> 0:01:29.230 a little later this evening, and we will have new 0:01:29.310 --> 0:01:32.640 episodes of Payoff Pitch, breaking down best bets on a 0:01:32.660 --> 0:01:36.520 daily basis every Monday through Friday throughout October. So be 0:01:36.580 --> 0:01:42.600 sure to stay tuned for that. Let's jump right into it. Dabundo, 0:01:42.620 --> 0:01:46.680 before we get started, your Phillies, they survived. They're in. 0:01:46.819 --> 0:01:50.520 How are you feeling? This is a payoff pitch started. 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.050 I believe our first season was 2022. So this is 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.010 the first season of payoff pitch where my White Sox 0:01:57.070 --> 0:01:58.950 are in the playoffs. Your Phillies are here every year. 0:01:58.970 --> 0:02:01.430 I feel like we do this a little bit every year, 0:02:01.910 --> 0:02:07.290 but they survived the torrid assault by the Diamondbacks trying 0:02:07.310 --> 0:02:08.950 to catch up there. How are you feeling about your 0:02:09.010 --> 0:02:10.470 Phillies going into October? 0:02:12.070 --> 0:02:16.220 A huge sigh of relief on Sunday when they scored 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.660 in the first inning. It was a feeling like, well, 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:22.400 they have it all lined up. Rays aren't really trying. 0:02:22.940 --> 0:02:26.359 Home game. You have all your best pitchers available. You're 0:02:26.380 --> 0:02:26.860 ready to go. 0:02:27.460 --> 0:02:29.100 And yet you still had the sinking feeling that the 0:02:29.139 --> 0:02:31.560 team that had scored, what, three runs the whole week 0:02:31.980 --> 0:02:33.840 wasn't going to be able to put any offense across. 0:02:33.900 --> 0:02:36.480 So the fact they did it, they took the weight 0:02:36.540 --> 0:02:39.850 lifted off their shoulders. Five straight years in the playoffs. 0:02:39.930 --> 0:02:42.550 That's only happened twice in my life. They're only one 0:02:42.570 --> 0:02:44.750 of two teams in this field to have that streak 0:02:44.790 --> 0:02:46.830 along with the Dodgers. So I'm excited as a fan. 0:02:47.810 --> 0:02:49.030 And now we get to watch one of the best 0:02:49.090 --> 0:02:50.890 rivalries in baseball right now. I mean, the Phillies and 0:02:50.930 --> 0:02:54.639 Braves were going at it in September. There's curtain calls 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:57.799 and slow trots around the bases and I know Red 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.410 Sox-Yankees historically has the juice, but in terms of currently, 0:03:02.370 --> 0:03:04.530 I think it is an incredibly compelling series. 0:03:05.130 --> 0:03:08.709 Zerillo, I feel like we, I remember really vividly, it 0:03:08.730 --> 0:03:12.340 was the three of us recording our playoff preview podcast 0:03:12.620 --> 0:03:15.419 last year. The Dodgers had slipped to the three seed, 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:17.000 had to play in the wildcard round, and all of 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:20.619 us said, well, you just got to bet the Dodgers, right? 0:03:20.700 --> 0:03:24.370 They're not the World Series favorite for once. This year, 0:03:24.410 --> 0:03:27.010 they're the two seed. The Brewers, once again, the one seed. 0:03:27.530 --> 0:03:31.380 the Dodgers are the world series favorite going in. What 0:03:31.419 --> 0:03:33.680 are your thoughts just kind of generally before we jump 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.960 into the buy sell on kind of Dodgers versus the 0:03:37.060 --> 0:03:41.600 field and, and how this is setting up you know, 0:03:41.860 --> 0:03:44.020 with the NL race and the brewers and all that. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:45.020 Yeah. 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:46.880 I took the Dodgers at plus three 50 at this 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:48.880 time last year. I'm going to give them out a 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:52.320 plus two 30 right now. I ran a few different models. 0:03:52.380 --> 0:03:54.900 I have my game sim model. that, you know, projects 0:03:54.970 --> 0:03:57.140 out every game, runs a Monte Carlo situation of all 0:03:57.160 --> 0:04:02.300 those different potential projections. Roughly speaking, projects the Dodgers to 0:04:02.340 --> 0:04:06.240 win each series around 70% of the time, maybe a 0:04:06.260 --> 0:04:10.120 little bit lower than that. Composite projections, Fangraus, Pocota, ATC, 0:04:10.140 --> 0:04:12.440 all those good ones that we always talk about. Pretty 0:04:12.500 --> 0:04:15.730 similar range, about 70% per series on average. You get 0:04:15.770 --> 0:04:19.990 them to about 30%, 33% at highest to win the 0:04:20.029 --> 0:04:23.860 World Series, roughly in line with where they're Moneyline is 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.200 listed for the World Series. Their price is listed for 0:04:26.220 --> 0:04:29.620 the World Series. However, I ran a playoff fit model. 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.960 I back-tested every data point I could possibly think of, 0:04:33.020 --> 0:04:36.320 hundreds of different data points. Every stat component you could 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:40.830 think of, chase rate, plate discipline stuff, power metrics, pulled 0:04:40.870 --> 0:04:44.530 fly ball rate, you name it, I tested it. Ultimately, 0:04:44.550 --> 0:04:49.560 I found that four things correlate very highly to predicting 0:04:49.620 --> 0:04:53.940 playoff series winners, much higher than the betting market has suggested. 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:58.330 It's very good at picking big favorites as well. And 0:04:59.110 --> 0:05:03.350 it determined that lineup quality expected Woba is by far 0:05:03.410 --> 0:05:05.450 the most important data point. And for the Dodgers and 0:05:05.490 --> 0:05:09.490 this team specifically, this is the best Dodgers offense there 0:05:09.529 --> 0:05:13.930 has been during their reign of title runs that they've 0:05:13.950 --> 0:05:17.400 had winning however many division titles in a row, aside 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:20.020 from the one that the Giants snuck in over them. 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:23.800 This is the best daughter's offense. Now, what is a 0:05:23.820 --> 0:05:27.260 little goofy about that is they have not, the lineup 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.539 who projects as their best nine, who should be together 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:31.200 in the playoffs. They have not really been on the 0:05:31.220 --> 0:05:35.020 field together much this season. They've had one guy missing 0:05:35.060 --> 0:05:38.320 at various times. They've had Kyle Tucker not hitting for 0:05:38.370 --> 0:05:41.070 huge parts of the season. Mookie Betts not hitting for 0:05:41.130 --> 0:05:43.610 huge parts of the season. Betts and Tucker came on late. 0:05:44.170 --> 0:05:46.930 Pahes and Teoscar kind of slowed down. So like there's 0:05:47.010 --> 0:05:49.670 sort of in this trade-off of who's hitting versus who's 0:05:49.730 --> 0:05:52.710 not hitting. Otani's coming back from the IL, just played 0:05:52.730 --> 0:05:55.210 a handful of games, hit the ball hard in one 0:05:55.230 --> 0:05:57.409 of those games, but hasn't hit a homer since he 0:05:57.430 --> 0:06:01.180 came back off the IL. So the point is, on paper, 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.279 this Dodgers offense is better than any of the teams 0:06:04.300 --> 0:06:07.100 they've sent to the playoffs recently. Their rotation is as 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.460 good or better with Skubal at the top than not 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:12.800 only any team in this field, but any rotation they've sent. 0:06:13.330 --> 0:06:16.770 to the playoffs previously. And the other main takeaways are 0:06:17.550 --> 0:06:21.010 that bullpen quality doesn't really matter that much in October. 0:06:21.029 --> 0:06:24.630 In fact, after backtesting those 100 playoff series or so 0:06:24.730 --> 0:06:29.089 since 2016, the team who had the better regular season 0:06:29.110 --> 0:06:32.810 bullpen lost the series about half the time. So I 0:06:32.910 --> 0:06:35.830 think when, and this is a larger point that you 0:06:35.850 --> 0:06:38.980 can kind of look forward at as we continue on 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.660 into these playoffs. I do think that when in a 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:45.800 series where we see relievers get used multiple times against 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:49.440 the same hitters, we see the deleterious effect it has 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:51.680 on those relievers. Every time you bring them into the game, 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.580 every time they face the same hitters, they're just slightly 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.229 less effective. That is proven out statistically over a number 0:06:58.250 --> 0:07:01.169 of years. And as a result, when you get into 0:07:01.610 --> 0:07:04.350 the latter part of a series. I do think the 0:07:04.390 --> 0:07:07.070 bullpens matter less. The starting pitching quality matters more. And 0:07:07.089 --> 0:07:10.090 I'm with, I think where the starting pitching quality also 0:07:10.110 --> 0:07:13.790 matters is in terms of what Yamamoto did for the 0:07:13.830 --> 0:07:16.790 daughters last postseason or what other teams will do with 0:07:16.810 --> 0:07:20.010 their extra starters in the postseason. You know, the Yankees 0:07:20.050 --> 0:07:22.410 have all of the starting pitching depth, starting pitching depth 0:07:22.430 --> 0:07:25.940 that is arguably better than some of their relief pitchers. 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.830 Does Aaron Boone deploy Guys like Will Warren in relief 0:07:29.970 --> 0:07:33.170 or Carlos Rodon in relief. So how do they use 0:07:33.690 --> 0:07:37.130 their extra arms that they have even beyond for the Dodgers, 0:07:37.190 --> 0:07:39.780 for instance, their core four that they have in their rotation? 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:41.760 How do they use them at Sheehan out of the bullpen? 0:07:41.940 --> 0:07:43.960 You know, how do they use their other arms even 0:07:43.980 --> 0:07:46.560 beyond what they have in terms of starting pitching quality? 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.280 But the reason why I think starting pitching quality is 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.960 so important is is not just because of it's the 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:53.740 guy starting the game. I think it takes the pressure 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:56.559 off of your bullpen, causes your bullpen to throw fewer innings, 0:07:56.940 --> 0:08:00.770 exposes that bullpen less to the opposing offense. But the 0:08:00.810 --> 0:08:04.710 main takeaway is from this research, that lineup quality is 0:08:04.750 --> 0:08:08.530 about 80% of what contributes to team success in the 0:08:08.570 --> 0:08:11.560 playoffs relative to what the series pricing already tells you. 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:13.880 So I think lineup is something that you can always 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:16.860 fall back on and factor in a little bit more 0:08:16.900 --> 0:08:19.260 heavily in a team like the Brewers who we'll discuss later. 0:08:19.780 --> 0:08:21.880 Their offensive metrics trended up this year, which is why 0:08:21.900 --> 0:08:24.160 I think they're a little bit more legitimate of a threat. 0:08:24.220 --> 0:08:26.260 But as I said, gave out the Dodgers last year 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:27.700 at this time, giving them out again, I like them 0:08:27.740 --> 0:08:30.790 down to about plus 200. The playoff fit model has 0:08:30.820 --> 0:08:33.290 them winning each series about 75% of the time. It 0:08:33.330 --> 0:08:35.530 makes them north of 40% to win the World Series, 0:08:35.750 --> 0:08:38.209 odds on to win the National League. So why I 0:08:38.210 --> 0:08:40.589 wanted to kind of run different models and compare and 0:08:40.610 --> 0:08:42.929 contrast relative to all the herding that is out there 0:08:42.950 --> 0:08:44.959 with regard to the game sim stuff. I think the 0:08:45.020 --> 0:08:47.770 Dodgers have traits that line up really well with champions. 0:08:47.830 --> 0:08:49.569 And this is arguably the best team they've sent to 0:08:49.590 --> 0:08:49.949 the playoffs. 0:08:50.429 --> 0:08:52.209 I love that you did the work on this because 0:08:52.230 --> 0:08:55.670 I feel like over the course of baseball discourse and history, 0:08:56.330 --> 0:08:58.630 you can pretty much say anything and find an example 0:08:58.660 --> 0:09:00.559 that fits your prior. Like you got to have a 0:09:00.580 --> 0:09:03.280 good bullpen to win in October. Nobody wins on a 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:06.020 good bullpen. It's like, well, two years ago or last year, 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:07.280 the Dodgers didn't really have a bullpen. 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:07.660 They won. 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:09.870 And it's like, well, but if you got like two 0:09:09.900 --> 0:09:12.230 or three really good starters, you can win the world series. 0:09:12.250 --> 0:09:14.500 And it's like, Well, no, there's actually teams that have 0:09:14.540 --> 0:09:18.320 bullpen series and won World Series. It's like, oh, but 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:20.520 you got to hit a lot of home runs or 0:09:20.570 --> 0:09:22.890 else you're cooked. And it's like, well, no, actually data 0:09:22.910 --> 0:09:25.330 shows manufacturing runs is good. It's like, oh, but you 0:09:25.350 --> 0:09:27.329 got to manufacture runs. It's like, well, no, actually hitting 0:09:27.370 --> 0:09:30.150 home runs also good. And it's very funny to me 0:09:30.190 --> 0:09:32.660 because I think I've heard everybody make the case, depending 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.920 on which team they want to support or which team 0:09:34.940 --> 0:09:37.420 they root for or which team they want to bet on. Like, oh, yeah, 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:39.380 this one trait, this one team is really good at. 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:42.210 That's really important in October. The other stuff you can 0:09:42.250 --> 0:09:44.670 kind of mess around with. We'll worry about that later. 0:09:45.210 --> 0:09:46.550 But I have a feeling I know who Sean's going 0:09:46.570 --> 0:09:48.710 to pick in Cubs Padres after listening to him talk 0:09:48.750 --> 0:09:51.660 about respective bullpens and offenses. 0:09:52.340 --> 0:09:53.860 One more stat that I want to just point out, 0:09:53.980 --> 0:09:57.380 because in regards to what Anthony said, manufacturing runs important, 0:09:57.420 --> 0:10:00.100 hitting the ball hard important. The Dodgers not only have 0:10:00.140 --> 0:10:01.979 the best offense in baseball, they also have the third 0:10:02.020 --> 0:10:04.439 lowest strikeout rate or fourth lowest strikeout rate. They put 0:10:04.460 --> 0:10:06.710 the ball in play a ton. So even if Otani's injured, 0:10:07.110 --> 0:10:08.550 this is a team that's still going to give itself 0:10:08.590 --> 0:10:10.310 chances to win just because they put the ball in 0:10:10.330 --> 0:10:12.030 play and do not strike out that much. I believe 0:10:12.050 --> 0:10:14.670 they have the lowest strikeout rate in the National League. 0:10:14.750 --> 0:10:17.470 So It just, you know, the combination of the power 0:10:17.510 --> 0:10:19.230 and also the contact ability, you compare that to a 0:10:19.230 --> 0:10:21.530 team like the Yankees, who also hits the ball hard. 0:10:21.950 --> 0:10:24.270 The Yankees are like 23rd in strikeout rate. You know, 0:10:24.650 --> 0:10:26.590 they're going to have a lot more whiffs with men 0:10:26.610 --> 0:10:30.170 on base, runners in scoring position, and not produce those runs. 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:31.700 And against a team like the Rays, who they'd have 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:33.719 to play in the LDS, that's going to be a 0:10:33.740 --> 0:10:36.000 real problem for them. So just wanted to point that out. 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:37.740 Not only do the Dodgers hit the ball hard, they 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:41.600 also avoid strikeouts and strikeout rate, along with offensive quality, 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.980 the two main data points in terms of offensive performance. 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:46.140 contributions for playoff scoring. 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.260 Lowest strikeout rates in the in the league this year 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:56.309 tampa dodgers d-backs guardians yeah three of the four by. 0:10:56.090 --> 0:11:01.470 Teams when you bring up needing bullpens for uh deep 0:11:01.670 --> 0:11:03.329 october on the first team i think of as the 0:11:03.330 --> 0:11:07.630 2019 nationals uh they had strasburg and scherzer on top 0:11:07.650 --> 0:11:11.089 but they were cobbling like reliever variance is so insane 0:11:11.130 --> 0:11:13.440 it's like oh you get a good three weeks out 0:11:13.460 --> 0:11:15.959 of Daniel Hudson and you're going to win the world series. 0:11:16.059 --> 0:11:17.920 You know, they were, they were relying a lot on 0:11:17.980 --> 0:11:22.620 Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, 42 year old Fernando Rodney down 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:23.370 the stretch there. 0:11:23.380 --> 0:11:27.290 The Rangers had a very similarly bad bullpen on paper 0:11:27.330 --> 0:11:29.030 going to the playoffs as well. You don't need a 0:11:29.050 --> 0:11:32.130 good bullpen to win in October. It doesn't hurt, but 0:11:32.190 --> 0:11:35.550 in terms of pricing it for series money lines, I 0:11:35.670 --> 0:11:38.330 think it's fully factored in. I think starting pitching quality 0:11:38.370 --> 0:11:39.030 is way more important. 0:11:39.809 --> 0:11:41.970 And you don't know who the good bullpens are. 0:11:42.350 --> 0:11:45.130 Yeah, well, virtually any major league quality reliever can have 0:11:45.150 --> 0:11:48.610 a hot three weeks, right? And that's kind of what 0:11:48.630 --> 0:11:52.430 we see here. DeBundo, when Sean was talking there, he 0:11:52.470 --> 0:11:54.390 mentioned the Brewers, he mentioned lineup quality, and it looked 0:11:54.410 --> 0:11:57.069 like you wanted to jump in immediately. I'm curious. Maybe 0:11:57.110 --> 0:12:01.070 I read it wrong, but I'm curious just generally. We 0:12:01.090 --> 0:12:03.550 talk a lot about the Dodgers here. They're the favorites, obviously, 0:12:03.590 --> 0:12:05.089 for a reason. We all were in on them at 0:12:05.110 --> 0:12:08.670 the start of the playoffs last year. Are you... kind 0:12:08.690 --> 0:12:10.790 of in the same boat as Zarrillo with the Dodgers. 0:12:10.850 --> 0:12:13.730 Is there another team you're buying that has like sneaky value? 0:12:13.750 --> 0:12:15.340 Is it the Brewers? Is it someone else? 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:17.599 I think the big question with the Dodgers is the 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:20.520 health of Shohei Otani. And what version of Otani are 0:12:20.540 --> 0:12:22.120 we getting in the playoffs? Because he was not the 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.420 same player down the stretch by any means. And he's 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:27.750 battling multiple different injuries. And it got to the point 0:12:27.790 --> 0:12:30.579 where his play on the field suffered. Then he gets 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.660 the injured list break. He comes back, so he does 0:12:32.700 --> 0:12:35.120 get some reps. But I think that's the one big unknown. 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:37.280 And I'm not sitting here coming in saying I'm ready 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:42.800 to bet against Shohei Otani in the playoffs. However, that 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.410 is the one domino of this whole thing because as 0:12:45.530 --> 0:12:48.030 much as Mookie's been up and down and Freddie has 0:12:48.070 --> 0:12:49.910 tailed off in the second half and Tucker was bad 0:12:49.929 --> 0:12:51.330 all year until he was good at the very end, 0:12:52.270 --> 0:12:56.990 there is no true star hitter in that lineup anymore, 0:12:57.010 --> 0:13:01.280 I don't think, except for Shohei Otani. And if he's 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:03.820 not hitting at that star level, all of a sudden 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.839 it's a bunch of really good hitters and not a 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:09.400 lot of, no great hitters. Whereas in the playoffs, I'm 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:11.780 always going to look to the team that has the 0:13:11.900 --> 0:13:14.329 one or two guys who are truly feared. And that's 0:13:14.370 --> 0:13:17.470 always been, I think Milwaukee's biggest problem is like, you know, the, the, 0:13:17.590 --> 0:13:20.190 the Pat Murphy jokes about the average Joe's. It's like, 0:13:20.210 --> 0:13:22.430 if you have a bunch of seven 80 OPS hitters, 0:13:22.910 --> 0:13:25.190 that's great over the course of one 62, how does 0:13:25.210 --> 0:13:27.209 that scale up in the playoffs? And we've all watched 0:13:27.610 --> 0:13:32.600 Milwaukee most notably, in the NLCS last year, go very 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:34.940 cold and score four runs in an entire four game series. 0:13:35.540 --> 0:13:37.340 I don't want to over index on that, but this 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.829 has been just a Milwaukee stretch here where their offense 0:13:40.850 --> 0:13:44.390 has consistently underperformed regular season numbers in the playoffs. Sean's 0:13:44.410 --> 0:13:45.850 going to come tell you why that doesn't matter. And 0:13:45.870 --> 0:13:49.410 I'm interested to hear his case, but I can't buy 0:13:49.429 --> 0:13:50.980 the Brewers at price because of that. 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:53.120 I think the biggest difference with the Brewers this year 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.459 versus last year is the walk rate. They led baseball 0:13:56.500 --> 0:13:58.660 and walk rate this season. I think they took advantage of, 0:13:59.270 --> 0:14:01.590 of the challenge system to a degree. And I do 0:14:01.630 --> 0:14:04.809 get more fair umpiring in the playoffs, better umpiring in general. 0:14:04.850 --> 0:14:07.510 I've found that umpiring doesn't really have an impact in 0:14:07.570 --> 0:14:10.699 terms of, you know, positively or negatively impacting teams. I 0:14:10.740 --> 0:14:12.540 think over the course of a five game series, seven 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.420 game series, that should even out, especially with better umpires 0:14:16.020 --> 0:14:18.619 being in play, especially with the challenge system, sort of 0:14:18.660 --> 0:14:21.760 factoring in challenging for that reason, also not as big 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.030 of an impact, but I just do think that this 0:14:24.050 --> 0:14:27.330 Brewers lineup for, the past seven years or so that 0:14:27.370 --> 0:14:29.790 we've seen them in playoffs, they rated as a below 0:14:29.830 --> 0:14:32.530 average offense. This year, they come in as an above 0:14:32.590 --> 0:14:35.310 average offense. So that is a bigger difference. They also 0:14:35.370 --> 0:14:39.150 have arguably the best top two among starting pitchers. I 0:14:39.210 --> 0:14:43.250 think I would take Mizorowski and Henderson over Skubal and Snell. 0:14:43.290 --> 0:14:47.430 It's very close. It's very, very, very close. But the 0:14:47.490 --> 0:14:49.970 point is that the Brewers, when they got to that 0:14:50.030 --> 0:14:53.550 NLCS last year, did not have the starting pitching quality 0:14:53.590 --> 0:14:56.120 to match up with the Dodgers whatsoever. They were using 0:14:56.130 --> 0:14:58.880 an opener ahead of Mizorowski and then using Mizorowski for 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.600 four innings. They were using Aaron Ashby wherever they could. 0:15:02.940 --> 0:15:05.580 They had to use Quinn Priester. I believe Jose Quintana 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.380 pitched one of those games as well. Now I did 0:15:08.420 --> 0:15:10.290 bet the Brewers around six to one to win the 0:15:10.430 --> 0:15:13.950 NL halfway through the year. But I bet them when 0:15:14.070 --> 0:15:16.430 Kyle Harrison was still pitching well and when Brandon Woodruff 0:15:16.570 --> 0:15:19.710 was not yet re-injured, which we all probably should have 0:15:19.730 --> 0:15:22.550 seen coming. But at the time I said, I'm making 0:15:22.590 --> 0:15:24.790 this bet. It's not a big bet because I want 0:15:24.830 --> 0:15:28.970 at least three of Mizorowski, Henderson, Harrison, and Woodruff healthy 0:15:28.990 --> 0:15:31.200 for the playoffs. They only have two of them healthy 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.160 for the playoffs at this point. And in a potential 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.580 seven game series against the Daughters, I'm not sure that 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.300 they have the bullpen depth to be able to get 0:15:39.460 --> 0:15:43.620 through it without getting hit somewhere. So I think they 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.620 can push the dot. If that is the NLCS, if 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.000 the top two seeds advance, I think they can push 0:15:48.020 --> 0:15:50.110 the Dodgers much harder than they pushed them last year. 0:15:50.130 --> 0:15:53.070 Still just not sure they have the rotation depth to 0:15:53.170 --> 0:15:56.370 overcome LA in games three and four when Mizorowski and 0:15:56.410 --> 0:15:59.870 Henderson are not pitching. So like I said, it's much 0:15:59.950 --> 0:16:03.220 closer than it was last year. I might even prefer 0:16:03.270 --> 0:16:06.080 the top two if I'm getting Mizorowski because Skubal has 0:16:06.100 --> 0:16:07.880 been a little bit shaky at times this year, even 0:16:07.900 --> 0:16:10.090 though he was better down the stretch, but Yeah, I 0:16:10.130 --> 0:16:13.220 think the Brewers are correctly priced. I think they're fairly priced. 0:16:13.740 --> 0:16:16.440 I would not bet into them at this point on 0:16:16.460 --> 0:16:20.140 a game-to-game perspective. Certainly may reconsider, but I think there's 0:16:20.260 --> 0:16:24.280 other teams who offer more value in the American League 0:16:24.300 --> 0:16:26.210 that I'd rather target rather than trying to go against 0:16:26.230 --> 0:16:26.970 the Dodgers and the NL. 0:16:27.550 --> 0:16:30.290 Talk about offensive quality of these two teams, just looking 0:16:30.390 --> 0:16:34.950 at the top offensive options by OPS Plus, essentially. An 0:16:34.990 --> 0:16:37.660 exact science, obviously, but you talk about the Brewers' offensive 0:16:37.700 --> 0:16:45.620 quality being better this year. Bowers 140, Churio 129, Terang 0:16:45.620 --> 0:16:48.750 124 compared to the Dodgers top guys this year. Again, 0:16:48.930 --> 0:16:53.710 kind of underperforming by their historical standards. I mean, Otani's 143, 0:16:53.710 --> 0:16:59.229 Muncy 128, Pah has 122, then Freeman 118. It's comparable 0:16:59.790 --> 0:17:04.429 just in terms of 2026 quality at least. One X 0:17:04.470 --> 0:17:06.530 factor for the Dodgers I'm really curious about is if 0:17:06.590 --> 0:17:12.250 they add Josue DePaula to their postseason roster. That dude 0:17:12.650 --> 0:17:16.689 is 21 years old. I don't know if casual baseball 0:17:16.710 --> 0:17:19.260 viewers are as familiar with him. He has a lot of... 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:23.580 I think it's irresponsible to just straight up compare any 0:17:23.619 --> 0:17:27.960 young hitter to Juan Soto. He takes some very Soto-ian 0:17:28.300 --> 0:17:30.980 plate appearances in his little cup of coffee there down 0:17:31.020 --> 0:17:33.719 the stretch. Some big pinch hit opportunities for him. I 0:17:33.810 --> 0:17:36.389 think that they're going to put him on their playoff roster. 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.270 I'm very excited about that potential, but. 0:17:41.130 --> 0:17:43.270 I like the way the bracket on Marbury as well. 0:17:43.290 --> 0:17:45.070 So good, good genes, good athletic genes. 0:17:45.630 --> 0:17:46.070 What'd you say? 0:17:46.530 --> 0:17:47.969 He's cousins with Stefan Marbury. 0:17:48.130 --> 0:17:51.439 Oh, I had no idea. Go ahead to bundle. What 0:17:51.460 --> 0:17:52.580 were you saying? 0:17:52.619 --> 0:17:54.620 I think the bracket broke pretty well for the Dodgers too. 0:17:55.300 --> 0:17:58.480 Yeah. I'm not really high on Atlanta or Philly coming 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:00.720 into these playoffs. I know it hurts me to say that, 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:05.980 but both offenses have been just an absolute, shell themselves 0:18:06.180 --> 0:18:08.520 for multiple months. Now, if you go just last two, 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:10.600 three month data and you kind of throw out the 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:14.460 very hot April that the Braves offense had and the 0:18:14.500 --> 0:18:17.590 very good June that the Philly offense had, you're left 0:18:17.670 --> 0:18:20.910 with two teams that are in the bottom 10 across 0:18:20.950 --> 0:18:23.470 all the baseball and WRC plus in the second half 0:18:23.530 --> 0:18:26.930 of the season. And to me, that just feels like a, 0:18:27.580 --> 0:18:31.080 a group that gets pretty quickly silenced by the fact 0:18:31.100 --> 0:18:33.920 that you're going to face in five-game series against the Dodgers. 0:18:33.940 --> 0:18:37.109 Whoever survives that gauntlet, whoever burns their bullpen in what 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:38.810 I think is going to be a three-game series this week, 0:18:39.369 --> 0:18:46.510 you end up with limping in to face Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Scooble, 0:18:46.930 --> 0:18:48.550 and then whoever they pick for game five, if you 0:18:48.570 --> 0:18:51.389 even get there. It's like you're running into a wall 0:18:51.430 --> 0:18:54.350 of pitching in that round. And I think compared to 0:18:54.369 --> 0:18:59.350 Chicago's offense and San Diego's offense, which has rejuvenated Tatis now, 0:19:00.230 --> 0:19:02.470 you just have a lot more opportunity to, to pull 0:19:02.510 --> 0:19:04.350 an upset over Milwaukee than I think the Braves or 0:19:04.369 --> 0:19:06.020 the Dodgers, the Phillies do against the Dodgers. 0:19:06.950 --> 0:19:07.130 Yeah. 0:19:07.190 --> 0:19:13.220 Game one, uh, J.R. Ritchie or Aaron Nola against Yoshinobi Yamamoto, uh, 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.500 depending on who comes out of that series, uh, be 0:19:15.700 --> 0:19:18.140 very interesting. Uh, we'll, we'll get into the wildcard series 0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:19.600 a little bit more. We talked to the top of 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:22.400 the NL bracket with the Brewers and Dodgers. Let's jump 0:19:22.460 --> 0:19:26.629 over to the American league where the Rays, uh, have 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:33.700 the one seed there uh al east champions plus 260 0:19:33.700 --> 0:19:37.460 to win the al pennant at draft kings yankees are 0:19:37.500 --> 0:19:39.780 plus 320 right behind them and then the two seed 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.850 the al central champions as much as i hate to 0:19:43.910 --> 0:19:48.750 say at the cleveland guardians plus 360 much different top 0:19:48.790 --> 0:19:51.190 of the al bracket than top of the NL bracket. 0:19:52.390 --> 0:19:54.550 It's not making any headlines to say the NL is 0:19:54.570 --> 0:19:58.030 the superior league this year. Much more superior teams. I 0:19:58.930 --> 0:20:00.970 think I thought the Pirates would have won the AL 0:20:01.010 --> 0:20:04.679 West this year. Finished, I think, third or fourth in 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:09.359 the NL Central this year. But Sean, I was... opening 0:20:09.460 --> 0:20:13.899 the award-winning Action app right before we started recording, and 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:17.870 you were recording some futures, some AL and NL pennant futures, 0:20:18.070 --> 0:20:21.270 and caught my eye, team, I saw you log that 0:20:21.290 --> 0:20:23.109