WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 9, 2024 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.479 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the latest 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:41.160 ABC News confirming Vice President Kamala Harrison former President Donald 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.559 Trump have agreed to a President and Your debate on 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.320 September tent. The two sides hitting the campaign trail in 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:49.239 full force today, Harris holding a rally in Phoenix as 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:52.400 Trump heads to Montana. Jeanette Lowis Tratiguez joined us now 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:55.640 for Moreette, this has been agreed. September tenth is the 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:58.800 day on ABC. I just wander, from your perspective, who 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:00.800 is most at risk? Go aga into that. 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:04.640 I think that Trump is a little bit more worried 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:07.479 about his positioning since Harris has gotten into the race 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:09.240 and is now the Democratic nominee. 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:11.240 So I think he is actually looking at. 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:15.600 This to try to have a similar a similar debate 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.480 as he had on June twenty seventh against President Biden. 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:20.360 So I think there's more risk there. 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:22.960 What we're definitely seeing since Harris has gotten into the 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:26.280 race is a lot more momentum on the Democratic side. 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:30.560 You've seen the national polls a three point five percentage 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:33.200 point move from Trump, who had been up about three 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:36.440 percentage points to now Harris being up just about a 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.280 half a percentage point. In the swing states that matter 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:41.200 for this election, you've seen a move of more than 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:44.440 two point five points in Harris's direction. So now we 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.920 really do have a fifty to fifty race where it 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.320 could be a very close calm November, and I think 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.320 he really wants to use the debate to try to 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.200 rehighlight and be able to attack Harris on some of 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.480 the key issues that he thinks are un lacking. 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:59.640 Now, Jenette. He also yesterday in his press conference, Donald 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.360 Trump floated to other debate who was more at risk 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:06.720 of having more debate time when it comes to not 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:08.919 just on this ABC News one, but Trump was floating 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.360 an NBC News debate as well as a Fox News debate. 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:13.280 You know, it's interesting. 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:15.720 So obviously, I think the June twenty seventh debate that 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:18.600 was probably a bit of a surprise to many people. 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:22.120 You know, usually the incumbent president does lose their presidential debate, 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.600 but that was just quite a different debate than I 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:26.079 think anyone was expecting. 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:27.840 Trump could be more. 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:29.720 Disciplined in the debates, as we saw in the June 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.679 twenty seventh debate, but at the same time, there could 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:36.200 be you know, different reactions, kind of like what we 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:38.919 had in his press conference yesterday, where that could actually 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:41.440 hurt him. Now, if Harris is also on the defensive 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:43.680 and he's actually get able to get a lot of blows, 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.600 that can hurt her, So debates can actually be quite 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.040 up in the air. I think that's why we also 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:50.880 kind of want to see what happens at this first debate, 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:53.400 and if that means we want more than one usually, 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.440 but obviously we do have three. So I think Trump 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.400 is now trying to go back to that traditional mode. 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.200 But that's also a lot in a couple of weeks 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.520 right before the election, so we'll see what happens. 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:06.560 We also heard from Kamala Harris yesterday, the Vice president 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.400 talking about the fact that her team has scheduled or 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.240 she's asking her team to schedule a sit down interview 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.280 before the end of the month. Unclear if that means 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.519 it's going to be scheduled for August or potentially September, 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:21.520 but there was also reporting that they would maybe want 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:24.880 to sit her down with her feet pee pick Governor Wallas. 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.120 Do you get a sense that the campaign is trying 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.919 to shield her from some of these more direct confrontations 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:32.359 with journalists. 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.080 You know, I think it's unclear. I think one of 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.120 the things that this has been a very fast campaign, 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.240 so it's only been three weeks. I think to some extent, 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.160 she might be still trying to get her feet under 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:45.200 her and make sure that she kind of knows what. 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:46.600 Her policy positions are. 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:48.720 So there could be some of that in part of 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:52.200 the delay as to really be doing more of these interviews. 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:54.800 But I think also she's kind of has the momentum 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:55.880 at this point now. 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:57.560 She is a better debater. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:03:59.520 She is better in front of the camera, I think 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:01.680 than she has been in the past, So I think 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.440 that does have a benefit for her, But there could 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.520 be other factors that I'm not quite sure exactly what 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:09.640 they may be, but I think this is something that 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:11.880 the Trump campaign is now trying to latch onto to 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:13.960 try and make that saying that she won't show up 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:15.640 in front of the press, she won't do interviews, and 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:16.280 she won't take. 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:17.120 Questions to that. 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:19.800 She's been vice president for about four years now, Is 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.520 it a problem she doesn't yet know her policies? 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:24.000 Well? 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:26.240 I think it's also just, you know, as a vice president, 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.599 she's trying to toe the line of what the president 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:31.760 Biden wanted right now. You know, we've seen that she's 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:34.760 not taking necessarily the same positions that she took as 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.800 a candidate in the twenty twenty cycle, so things like fracking, 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:41.200 she's trying to like moderate her position on Israel a 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.440 little bit. I think these are the things that she 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:47.240 wants to really make sure she has really ironed out better, 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.520 because obviously we know in this new cycle that people 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:52.640 love to take anything that you say and then kind 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.320 of spin it. So I think she also wants to 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.719 make sure she does have her messaging down. But she 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.160 does also have a risk there that if she's actually 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.360 not showing up in in front of the press, she's 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.760 not able to answer questions and talk about our policies. 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:05.839 That can also be a risk for her campaign as well. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.120 Janet, just before you go, quite clearly the vice president 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:10.520 is driving enthusiasm at the top of the ticare how 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.159 is sent in House? Rice is evolving since Spiden dropped 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:14.240 out and she stepped up. 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:16.920 Yeah, So one of the biggest things that we've seen 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:19.120 is that since Biden got off the ticket and Harris 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.560 is now the new nominee, we've seen the odds of 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:24.400 a Republican sweep drop quite a bit. They were fifty 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.200 five percent on July sixteenth, They're now down to thirty 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.120 two percent this morning. And you also have twenty five 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.839 percent odds of a Democratic sweep and twenty five percent 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:36.479 odds of divided government in the scenario of a Democratic president, 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:37.760 Democratic House. 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:40.600 And a Republican Senate. I think what's interesting about. 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:43.520 This cycle is is that you could have divided government 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:47.039 under either scenario whoever wins the presidency, just because the 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:49.560 margins are so tight right now in the House and 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.080 the Senate. So, for instance, if Harris is getting a 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.200 lot of momentum, the Democrats only need a net four 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.960 seats to win the House, and those are seats that 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:01.280 are also in states like Alabama, and there's one seat 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.279 in Alabama, there's seats in California and New York and 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.400 New Jersey. The Democrats do have an opportunity to flip 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.240 this cycle. So if she has momentum, even if she 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.919 doesn't win the presidency, there is still a possibility the 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:17.080 Democrats could have control of the House. On the flip side, 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:18.839 the Senate does look like it's going to move to 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.640 the Republicans because you have a center or mansion no 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.000 longer running in West Virginia. I think that becomes a 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:27.360 Republican pickup. And then also John Tester is currently down 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.039 in the state of Montana, so that could be another pickup. 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:30.880 So there is this. 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:34.039 Interesting dynamic where we could have divided government no matter what. 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:36.680 So I think that that's something that we need to 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.599 look forward to because it's obviously going to have big 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.839 implications for what policies can be enacted next year, and 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:44.640 particularly as we're talking about the debate. I'm sorry, it's 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:46.799 about taxes and the debt ceiling debate. 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.440 Jeanette got it, just fantastic. ANCIL always do not load 0:06:49.440 --> 0:07:01.719 their astrtigus days that I says Donald Trump using a 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:05.000 Marijuanca news conference to express frustration at the Federal Reserve. 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.440 The comments echoing of Wall Street Journal report back in 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.120 April saying that Trump's allies are drawing up plans to 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:12.840 blunt the Fed's independence should he win a second term, 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:15.040 a report that Trump's team has since pushed back on. 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:18.640 Repeatedly joined US Now to discuss his Republican Congressman Frendshill 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.440 of Arkansas Congressman, I'm going to start with a really 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.360 dangerous question. What is the former president talking about? 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:28.440 Well, Jonathan, great to be with you. I think every 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:32.800 president in the modern era has certainly criticized the FED 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:37.000 and lashed out and trying to have more control over 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.400 the FED. But since World War Two, having FED independence 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.600 is important. We want to try to have price stability. 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:46.120 That's their mission. I wish they focused only on the 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:50.160 price stability, but nonetheless that's their mission. And over my 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:55.160 time in public life, I've seen presidents try to influence 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.680 the FED through moral suasion by calling them over to 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:01.840 the Oval office. Baker and Ronald Reagan with Valen Green 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:06.520 span for the nineteen eighty four A vote election year. 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.440 But the bottom line is the FED can appoint, be 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:12.000 able to have fled's chairman appointed by the President to 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.800 the Senate confirms that position. The House and Senate conduct 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:23.520 major oversight over the operate fat Well, there is political tension. 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.520 There, Congressman. We heard from Jared Bernstein, of course, from 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.240 the White House director of the chair of the White 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.160 House Council of Economic Advisors. He tweeted this yesterday saying 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:35.720 history cannot be clear regarding the lasting and damaging inflationary 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:39.520 consequences of ignoring this lesson, of reversing the hard earned 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.600 progress of the past half century. So you agree with 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:47.760 the White House that the FED should remain completely independent, Well, 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:48.400 I agree with. 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.760 The record of history that the FED should be independent. 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:55.199 That's a central bank tenet that the FED should generally, 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:58.080 the central bank of a country should be independent of 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:01.520 the fiscal authority or or the legislator of brench to 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:05.000 protect the price stability. And as I say, since World 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:08.480 War Two, when we had actually Treasury representation on the 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:13.800 FED board, that's been done informally through the appointment process 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:17.079 to make sure the President's pleased with whoever the chair is, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.800 and the Senate confirmation process, and there have been times 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.640 during tension where there's been White House meetings with FED 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:29.800 chairs or White House influence. Richard Nixon famously trying to 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:35.040 influence Arthur Burns during the nineteen seventy two election cycle, 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:39.040 the Jim Baker and Ronald Reagan antidote that I just mentioned. 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:43.760 But structurally it's maintained its independence, and I think that's important. 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:45.760 So let's talk about some of the FED policy. When 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:48.040 the Foreign President was talking about this yesterday, that he 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.719 would potentially have a better gut feeling or interest rate 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.880 should be, he said that heat chair Powell tends to 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:55.600 be a little bit lead on things. He gets things 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:57.520 a little bit too early and a little too late, 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:01.160 and he says he would have this feeling potentially he'd 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:04.240 be a better FED chair because of that. Do you 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:06.960 agree with where the FED is right now or do 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:08.880 you think they should be cutting and if so, do 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:11.000 you think it'll be political for them to take this cut? 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:15.800 In September, well Sherman Bella says they're data dependent. 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.120 I think that's good, But I think the way to 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:24.760 avoid these kinds of fights without much assurance of what 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:27.320 direction of the other is to have a rules based 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:32.120 monetary policy, the so called John Taylor Rule from Stanford University. 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:34.240 John and I work together on the White House Staff 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:38.040 in the nineties. The so called Taylor Rule would make 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.320 a range of mathematical recommendations on the targeting of short 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:46.160 rate rates by the FED. As opposed to it being 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:50.000 just a group of individuals on the Board of Governors 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.400 deciding that, or as Jim Grant refers to it, a 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.920 PhD standard, we would actually have a rules based standard. 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.840 Some others want to go back to a gold standard. 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.920 But a rules based standard would have a range of 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.000 guidance to the Fed of whend to cut and how 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:07.560 much to cut, and that would take some of this 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:10.080 instinct out of it. 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.280 So Congressmen, given that, and this is a criticism, other 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.080 people have said that the FED needs more of a framework. 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.920 They don't have reliable framework at this moment. Do you 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:22.360 think that's something that should be mandated in for the FED? 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.160 Would you like to see something along those lines. 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.320 I would like to see a rules based framework. And 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:32.839 when Chairman Powell was before the Committee a few weeks ago, 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:36.559 I asked him the status of their reassessment of their 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:41.360 very famous decision in August of twenty twenty, in the 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:45.840 middle of a pandemic, to just let inflation run a 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.880 little hotter than two percent, knowing that they could rein 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.400 it in which I think. 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:50.560 Is a. 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.040 Strong presumption that I don't know that's based in fact 0:11:55.120 --> 0:12:00.520 as we've witnessed since twenty twenty one. I think that 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.599 is an opportunity for the Fed to reassess using a 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:07.680 rules based framework for their monetary policy. 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:10.120 A Congressman, since we last spoke, this race has changed 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.520 a lot, particularly in the last month. Can you talk 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.320 to me about how you see things evolving right now 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.560 when it comes to the issues. I think the impression 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:18.840 that a lot of people have that are coming on 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:20.640 this program right now is that we're not really talking 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:22.920 about those so much. It feels like we're talking about 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.560 the enthusiasm, the vibes, and the improvement that we're seeing 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:28.560 on the Democratic ticket since the sitting president dropped down 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.920 of the race. When it comes to the issues, I 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.280 know that you're very, very focused still, Congressman, on immigration, 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:36.680 Can you walk us through the things that you're concerned 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.520 about and do you think the former president is doing 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.319 a decent job of prosecuting the case? 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.960 Well? First, let's start there. I think to win this election, 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:49.400 it's a great opportunity for President Trump to be re elected. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.720 I think his policies are much more in alignment of 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:57.040 my views are on the economy and national security, and 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.160 particularly border security. But we've got to stay focused on 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:04.800 the issues and get off some of the personalities here. 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.080 Let's focus on the issues, and I think your President 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.720 Trump and his vice president nominee JD. Evans focus on 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:16.959 the issues of national security, the border, community, policing, inflation. 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.600 They went and they went hands down on the border. 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:24.240 What I'm the most concerned about by the horrible Biden 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:28.120 policy of an open border is not just the millions 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.440 of people he's allowed in the country that we don't 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.840 have a full instinct of what to do about or 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.880 how to handle it, and swamping our border patrol system, 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.280 but the number of terrorists, people on the tear watch 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.480 lists that are in this country. And we've asked a 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.240 Chairman Turner of the Intelligence Committee, Chairman Grain of the 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.160 Homeland Security, and I have persistently for months asked for 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.680 this administration and the FBI and Homeland Security to tell 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.959 us where these people encountered on the terror watch list 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.880 are in this country, what has happened to them? And 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.840 when you think about millions of god aways, how many 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:05.920 more people are in the country that we don't know 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.320 about that we did not encounter. I find this very 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:13.439 concerning in light of the Pakistani comments about the Trump 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:19.520 assassination attempt, of the continuing Iranian documented Iranian influence in 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:23.560 the country on assassinations, in the recent Philadelphia discovery of 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:28.560 an isis K network that was operating the country having 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:30.240 come across our open border. 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.120 Kamorsman, if you're so concerned about the border, why did 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:37.440 the Republicans then ditch this idea of the legislation that 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.200 was circuling starting in the Senate with Langford when it 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:41.520 came to border security. 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.200 Well, first we passed HR two, which is the preferred 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:50.440 approach for House Republicans on both immigration reform and border security. 0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:52.680 We got it passed, we sent it to the Senate, 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.160 there was no action on it. Senator Langford did a 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.360 good work trying to find consensus in the Senate, but look, 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.720 he was still facilitating thousands of people, undocumented people coming 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:08.000 in the border. He was not taking the concrete steps 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.840 that we put in HR two. So I think Am Marie. 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.440 That was the key difference for Speaker Johnson, for House Republicans, 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.640 and that's why that bill did not proceed in the center. 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.000 Congressman, we have to do this more often, sir. It's 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:21.760 going to catch up. And I promise if you I 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.440 say this every single year Razorbacks football, We're going to 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:26.560 make it happen this winter. Okay, going to make it happen. 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:38.200 All right, Thank you, sir. The Congressman French Shill of Arkansas. 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.560 Deborah Netshirt of Jennison, expecting to growth to continue for Lily, 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.120 writ in this thanks to a significant ramp up in 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:52.080 manufacturing capacity, uptake is going to increase dramatically in twenty 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:55.160 twenty six to twenty eight. This will translate into significant 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:59.280 sales and earning acceleration. Debra's joining us now to walk 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.080 us through all this and expand and give us detailed 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:03.600 Deborah in a way that I think we've been lacking 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.440 over the last few weeks or so. Welcome to the program. 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:08.720 I think for many people, and I'll speak for myself 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:10.920 when it comes to Novo versus Lily, I don't know 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.240 what the difference is, what the drugs are and what 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:16.160 the real distinction is between the two companies is Debora. 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.080 Can you help us with that? What is the distinction 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.600 between those two firms and the treatments and the drugs 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:21.800 that they're putting out to market. 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:24.920 Sure, well, thank you very much for having me. It 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:26.840 really does feel like they are part of the same 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.960 conversation lately and thought about as one company, doesn't it. 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.920 So Lily we'll start with Lily. 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.080 Lily is a little bit more of a diverse company 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:42.560 than Novo. They have a huge business and diabetes and obesity, 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.160 as we've talked about and as everyone knows, but they 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:50.440 also have been incredibly successful in oncology and immunology and 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.920 are just launching a new drug for Alzheimer's. But because 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:58.520 of the sheer size of the diabetes and obesity business, 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:00.440 a lot of the rest of Lily doesn't not get 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.560 talked about. The main drugs for Lily are ze Bound 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.639 and Manjaro. Is that Bound is marketed for obesity, whereas 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:12.200 Munjaro is marketed for diabetes. Novo is a little bit 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:16.640 more of a diabetes pure play. They've had a very 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:21.119 long They've had a long tenure in diabetes with a 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.440 big insulin business, turning to the golps. They have ozebic 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.960 for diabetes, they have ribeltis, and then they also have 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:31.120 a GOV which is their obesity drug. 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:36.000 I also understand the difference between those obesity drugs themselves. 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.439 For example, one of the big criticisms of Novo was 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.760 you have this drug that comes out and it allows 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:43.800 people to lose weight, but you have a problem where 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.600 people are losing muscle mass that in a way they're 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.120 almost becoming less healthy because of that. Who is at 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:51.119 the forefront of addressing that issue. 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.360 Well, I think I think the jury is out whether 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.320 or not the muscle mass is really an issue right now. 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.560 We need longer term data on obesity, which we don't 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.840 yet have. I think the one thing that you should 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.800 think about is we at Jennison really focus on the 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:08.680 long term, and if you look at the long term 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:13.160 data from diabetes, we're not seeing any adverse events related 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:15.919 to this difference between muscle and fat laws. So I 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:17.679 think we just need a little bit more time and 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.159 a little bit more data to see whether or not 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:22.320 this is a long term issue with these drugs. 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:24.520 And in the meantime, I mean the adoption and even 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.960 just the addressable market for these drugstebra is really big. 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.159 Since the nineteen seventies, the United States has had an 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.880 up trend in obesity rates. Are we about to witness 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.280 a wholesale societal shift where for the first time really 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.639 since the Great Depression, that obesity rates are going to 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:42.280 start to fall. 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.480 It would be really great if we could do if 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.320 we could see that because there is such a large 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:53.639 downstream effect of obesity on other body systems. One of 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.159 the most interesting things about the gops is just the 0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:59.280 number of different diseases that they are having an impact on. 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:05.800 Seen a positive cardiovascular risk reduction in morbidity immortality. We've 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:09.280 seen an impact on liver disease called MASH. We've seen 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.760 positive impacts on slapapnia. We've seen positive impacts on kidney 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:18.400 disease and other types of cardiovascular diseases. So hopefully, as 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:22.800 time goes on and these gops are adopted, we'll see 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.399 this downstream effect take place. I think the thing to 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:30.520 focus on is since the obesity mids have come out, 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.479 we've really been supply constrained, and both Lily and Novo 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.080 have made really positive strides on supply and are going 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:42.320 to be exiting twenty twenty four with significantly more supply 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:43.600 than they've ever had before. 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:46.639 There's been a ton of enthusiasm, but you say utilization 0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:49.639 isn't even close in terms of percentage of these drugs 0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:51.800 in the market. Where do you see this going in 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:55.240 terms of percentage of the next five ten years. 0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.480 I mean significantly higher than we are now. We're really 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.720 still only in the single digits when you think about obesity, 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:04.200 so we have a long. 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:04.480 Way to go. 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:07.040 There's a lot of people, Debora, as you know, trying 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:10.960 to develop second derivative trades around this story, and I 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:13.200 just wonder for you and the team what the process 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.560 is that you go through to develop those kind of trades. 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:18.120 I can save you from our perspective on this program. 0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:21.000 We've had everyone from talking about the snack business all 0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:23.040 the way through to the airline business and talking about 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:26.359 the savings on fuel costs of all things, Debora, if 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:28.880 the average passenger loses some weight, how are you thinking 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:30.320 about those second derivative trades? 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:34.280 Well, when we think about when we think about the 0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:38.040