Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Alright, very excited for this
Speaker 1: next interview. Michael Dowling as President and CEO of north
Speaker 1: Well Health, New York State's largest healthcare provider, twenty three hospitals,
Speaker 1: more than thirteen and a half thousand affiliated physicians. And
Speaker 1: of course you will have seen Michael Dowling next to
Speaker 1: Governor Cuomo during the beginning part of this pandemic. He's
Speaker 1: been his advisor and is advising him specifically on reopening
Speaker 1: plans and so on. Michael, the gratitude of the state
Speaker 1: and country is with you. But as much as you've done,
Speaker 1: we're only part way through this whole story. Are you
Speaker 1: preparing for more cases now that New York has started
Speaker 1: to reopen, and of course as we see protests continue, Yes,
Speaker 1: the numbers of cases have dramatically dropped, and we're only
Speaker 1: seeing right now very very few new cases. Two days
Speaker 1: ago across our whole health system, we only had nine
Speaker 1: new cases. But given the reopening and giving all of
Speaker 1: the protests that recently occurred, um we are watching it
Speaker 1: very very closely to see whether or not there will
Speaker 1: be an uptick in cases over the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: We have not seen anything yet, but we are we
Speaker 1: are observing it very very closely, as I said, just
Speaker 1: in case that might happen. And of course we're also
Speaker 1: making plans, um uh for the potential that you could
Speaker 1: have an up surge sometime in the fall during the
Speaker 1: flu season. So we are we are prepared. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've handled the situation up to this point, I think
Speaker 1: quite well. We've learned a lot, and we definitely are
Speaker 1: prepared for anything that might hit us in the future.
Speaker 1: We hope it doesn't occur, and we hope that people
Speaker 1: you know, comply with the social distancing and wearing masks
Speaker 1: and do it do the right thing for the good
Speaker 1: of the community. And if they do that, then I
Speaker 1: think we will be in a pretty good in a
Speaker 1: pretty good situation. But we are prepared. Going back to
Speaker 1: your question, Michael North, while health Hospitals have treated more
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen patients than any others in the United States.
Speaker 1: What I want to ask you is how are your
Speaker 1: people doing? How And maybe kind of get to look
Speaker 1: back a little bit now and some of those crazy
Speaker 1: days and crazy weeks where your hospitals and others in
Speaker 1: the city, in the state were overwhelmed with patients. As
Speaker 1: you look back, how is your staff doing. The staff
Speaker 1: is doing very very well, empeed And I I do
Speaker 1: spend myself. I spent a lot of my time out
Speaker 1: on the floors of the hospital. So I am in
Speaker 1: the direct contact with staff and all of our facilities
Speaker 1: on an ongoing basis. Them allow is very very high. Um.
Speaker 1: It is extraordinary how people came together, work together, supported
Speaker 1: one another and stuck with it during the whole period
Speaker 1: of the severe cases we had. UM. Now, we we
Speaker 1: do have a lot of support programs for staff, of course,
Speaker 1: and while doing a crisis, everybody's a drillin is going
Speaker 1: and they're working very hard. But it is possible that
Speaker 1: as it slows down now that we're going to see
Speaker 1: some of the residual results of the circumstance that they
Speaker 1: were in. And so we're holding you know, meetings on
Speaker 1: mental health issues, behavioral health issues, stress reduction issues, etcetera.
Speaker 1: Just to make sure that we can accommodate any needs
Speaker 1: of the start have. But overall, among the physicians, the nurses,
Speaker 1: the social workers, etcetera, extraordinary resilience and unbelievable positivity even
Speaker 1: in the midst of a situation like this, especially since
Speaker 1: many of them themselves, you know, had six family members
Speaker 1: family members who died. I've come across a number of employees,
Speaker 1: including yesterday, were a nurse she actually took care of
Speaker 1: her brother who actually died on the floor of the
Speaker 1: same hospital that she was practicing. Again, um, but overall
Speaker 1: quite positive given the circumstances. And it says something it's
Speaker 1: shot them about healthcare workers. Yeah, it leaves you dumbfounded
Speaker 1: when you listen to some of those stories, Michael. But
Speaker 1: the other part of your problem is that with twenty
Speaker 1: three hospitals under your umbrella, seven fifty outpatient facilities, you've
Speaker 1: lost a lot of revenue during this time as well.
Speaker 1: And of course no one likes to talk about, you know,
Speaker 1: profit and making money during as tough a time as
Speaker 1: we've had. But you're going to have to look after
Speaker 1: conservations and patients who need you know, surgery immediately and
Speaker 1: so on. How do you do that when you've lost
Speaker 1: one and a half billion dollars in revenue, Well, you
Speaker 1: focus on if you focus on your stay positive and
Speaker 1: you stay up beat. I mean we we we had
Speaker 1: a circumstance to deal with. We dealt with it when
Speaker 1: not only lost revenue, but we had to spend an
Speaker 1: awful lot of new money is to just accommodate all
Speaker 1: of the new cases, and we retrofit many of our hospitals.
Speaker 1: But that's an the lens by which you look at it.
Speaker 1: During a crisis, you do what you do because it's
Speaker 1: the right thing to do, and you take care of
Speaker 1: the community. And now that we are coming out of it,
Speaker 1: at least for this stage of it, hopefully, and it
Speaker 1: will be the end stage, we are rebuilding back and
Speaker 1: we're transitioning, we're bringing back business. We're focusing a lot
Speaker 1: on the cases that were deferred that can't be deferred
Speaker 1: any longer, otherwise you can have some other serious negative effects.
Speaker 1: So give you an example. Two days ago, I mentioned
Speaker 1: that we had nine COVID patients into our facilities, but
Speaker 1: we had seven hundred and twenty intatient admissions on that
Speaker 1: very same day across our health system. So patients are
Speaker 1: coming back, surgery is being done, and we're going to
Speaker 1: build back up. And I think we're going to build
Speaker 1: back up in a stronger and will be in a
Speaker 1: stronger position in the future that we were in the
Speaker 1: past because we learn some lessons. We have to rethink
Speaker 1: our organization right now, become more product productive, become more
Speaker 1: consumers focused, become leaner and uh and use technology and
Speaker 1: awful lot more about our normable lessons that we learned here.
Speaker 1: And of course we did get some support from the
Speaker 1: federal government. So when I look forward a year from now,
Speaker 1: we will come out of this. Okay, Um, you know, circumstances, yeah,
Speaker 1: show you you know, put your into a negative circumstances
Speaker 1: for a while, but you look forward and you're going
Speaker 1: to come out of it healthy, strong, and better. I
Speaker 1: believe sometimes, you know, going through a bad experience weakens
Speaker 1: you up and gives you a new perspective, gets you
Speaker 1: to think about what's important and how to build your
Speaker 1: organization for the future. So I'm optimistic, um, And you
Speaker 1: have to be optimistic because it also is in a
Speaker 1: leadership in any organization should be optimistic at a time
Speaker 1: like this, because that's the message that you sent to
Speaker 1: your staff as well. So I thought, absolutely, Michael, just
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left. How about some smaller market hospitals.
Speaker 1: I've seen some news reporting that, boy, a lot of
Speaker 1: the those types of facilities are really gonna have a
Speaker 1: hard time staying afloat what is what? What's your understanding there? Yes,
Speaker 1: smaller hospitals that are stand alone hospitals that are not
Speaker 1: part of the larger system, that don't have some of
Speaker 1: the you know, capabilities that places like us have. But
Speaker 1: we'll have a most more difficult circumstance. You will have
Speaker 1: some places across the country, my guests, that will close.
Speaker 1: You will have some places that will will will allie,
Speaker 1: we create alliances with other large entities. But there's going
Speaker 1: to be a shift and a change in healthcare now,
Speaker 1: and I think some of that is for the good.
Speaker 1: Some of the things we were always doing one way
Speaker 1: we would now do a different way. Especially do you
Speaker 1: telemedicine and telehealth, etcetera. So yes, um, you'll see some
Speaker 1: positives coming out of this, But like everything else that
Speaker 1: happens in circumstances like this, you're going to see some
Speaker 1: negatives as well. Michael Dowling, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: taking the time to speak with us. We really appreciate
Speaker 1: hearing your perspective from really ground zero on the very
Speaker 1: front lines of dealing with this COVID nineteen and you know,
Speaker 1: our our thanks to you into all the staff of
Speaker 1: your hospitals. Michael Dawling, President, chief executive officer of north
Speaker 1: Well Health joining us. Just some extraordinary commentary, Vanni. You know,
Speaker 1: think about the no hospital system in the country handed
Speaker 1: more COVID nineteen cases than north Well. Yeah, and saved
Speaker 1: the state and the rest of the country from you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of tragedy as well. But I'm sure that
Speaker 1: one anecdote he told he probably has hundreds more. And
Speaker 1: you wonder what it's like to lead an organization like
Speaker 1: that at a time like this. It is time to
Speaker 1: check in with Bloomberg Opinion. We're joined now by opinion
Speaker 1: columnist Sarah Holzack. Sarah, thank you for joining a great
Speaker 1: opinion piece today. On retail. We've known for some time
Speaker 1: that retail will be challenged, but there are more challenges
Speaker 1: facing retail. As the protests got underway and each of
Speaker 1: the brands were called out to have a response to
Speaker 1: what was going on in the environment. So where do
Speaker 1: we stand now with retail? What are CEO is telling you? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think the key thing that I've been thinking about
Speaker 1: is that the clothing category in particular is in dire
Speaker 1: straits right now. Um, it's just a corner of retail
Speaker 1: that was more overstored than any other and already so
Speaker 1: many of the brands in that space were in a
Speaker 1: beleaguered position before the onset of the pandemic and the recession.
Speaker 1: The likes of Victoria's Secret, Banana Republic Gap Chico's expressed
Speaker 1: these are brands that for years have been struggling to
Speaker 1: connect with customers based on their fashion alone, and now
Speaker 1: when you add these other problems on top of it,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a very very dark time in
Speaker 1: this segment of retail for months and perhaps years to come. So, Sarah,
Speaker 1: as we think about the clothing aspect of retail again,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, there's a lot of the fashion aspect
Speaker 1: to it. How has kind of the pandemic and changing
Speaker 1: consumer behaviors about how they actually purchase clothing, How has
Speaker 1: that changed our people more comfortable spending on fairly moderate
Speaker 1: the big ticket items strictly online. Yes, so I think
Speaker 1: that what this has done has basically meant years worth
Speaker 1: of online adoption was compressed into a matter of months um,
Speaker 1: and so people are getting more comfortable with purchasing clothing online.
Speaker 1: I've seen UH surveys that show people plan to keep
Speaker 1: buying clothing online at the rate that they've begun to
Speaker 1: now during this time of lockdowns, and that creates a
Speaker 1: unique challenge for the clothing segment that's not faced elsewhere.
Speaker 1: And that's because re terms of online purchases and this
Speaker 1: segment tends to be extremely high. We all probably know
Speaker 1: this from personal experience. You buy multiple sizes of a
Speaker 1: given pair of pants or multiple colors um, and having
Speaker 1: to foot the bill for return, shipping and restocking um
Speaker 1: is a really tricky profitability problem for these clothing retailers
Speaker 1: that just simply is not faced by retailers of electronics, toys, groceries,
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. So one of the reasons that
Speaker 1: people still do go into break and mortar stories is
Speaker 1: to avoid having to do that Sarah, to try on
Speaker 1: different sizes and to just try on something so they
Speaker 1: won't have to send it back. How will stores change
Speaker 1: their fitting room policies post pandemic. Yeah, so we're seeing
Speaker 1: a number of different approaches on this front. Coals and
Speaker 1: t J Max, for example, have their fitting rooms closed
Speaker 1: all together right now. Nords from its taking an approach
Speaker 1: where it has only a limited number of them open
Speaker 1: and they're cleaning each fitting room in between each patron um,
Speaker 1: and again you can see how this just compounds the
Speaker 1: problem of fitting rooms are a key reason that you
Speaker 1: go to do brick and mortar shopping in the first
Speaker 1: place for clothing stores, and when that option is not
Speaker 1: available to you, or when it's suddenly become a lot
Speaker 1: flunk here, you can see how that might keep people
Speaker 1: away or keep people from purchasing as many things as
Speaker 1: they might have if they were able to try them on. So, Sara,
Speaker 1: one of the things that we've heard about within retail
Speaker 1: generally speaking, is this omni channel approach to retailing. You know,
Speaker 1: the bricks and mortar plus the online being able to
Speaker 1: you know, maybe pick up something that you ordered online.
Speaker 1: Is that still seen as the best strategy for a
Speaker 1: lot of these retail segments. So I think curbs I'd
Speaker 1: pick up the getting a huge boost in the grocery
Speaker 1: category right now, and I think a lot of people
Speaker 1: are trying that for the first time and reach other's
Speaker 1: like Walmart and Target have long said that these services
Speaker 1: have extraordinarily high net promoter scores that once people, once
Speaker 1: they can get people to try them, uh, they really
Speaker 1: do stick with them and recommend them to other shoppers.
Speaker 1: So this moment of trial for curbside pickup in the
Speaker 1: grocery space in particular, I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: sticky and powerful. Um, these experiments that say a Bloomingdale'
Speaker 1: is doing with curbside pickup, I'm not sure how enduring
Speaker 1: that's going to be after the pandemic, because again, this
Speaker 1: seems like a situation where either you'd want to go
Speaker 1: to the store, try the clothes on, have that sort
Speaker 1: of social experiential moment, or you'd want to shop online.
Speaker 1: And I don't think curbside will be have lasting impacts there. Sarah, Obviously,
Speaker 1: you know a big story is rent and Gap is
Speaker 1: suing it doesn't want to pay rent and so on.
Speaker 1: What are people like MPG group and so on saying
Speaker 1: about who will up on the hook for rents? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a tricky question and I think it would me
Speaker 1: everyone's watching that particular lawsuit you mentioned very closely to
Speaker 1: see how it shapes out. Um. I think it's interesting
Speaker 1: to note that different retailers will have different advantages that
Speaker 1: they can bring to these lease negotiations. If you're someone
Speaker 1: who's a key traffic driver to a shopping center, so Apple,
Speaker 1: for example, uh tends to drive a lot of foot
Speaker 1: traffic to a mall. Or if you're a grocery store
Speaker 1: which has been opened this whole time and is a
Speaker 1: basics retailer, you have a lot of leverage in these
Speaker 1: negotiations with the mall operators. If you're one of these
Speaker 1: leaguer clothing stores we were talking about earlier, a Victoria's
Speaker 1: Secret and express Uh, you know, Victoria's secret is closing
Speaker 1: a quarter of its North American fleet. That does not
Speaker 1: really put you on good footing to be able to
Speaker 1: renegotiate that our terms for your leases. And so I
Speaker 1: think that is definitely going to play a role and
Speaker 1: who the ultimate survivors are after all of this tumult.
Speaker 1: Sarah Hals like, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: We're always glad to get your perspective and all things
Speaker 1: retail Cheach retail colms for Bloomberg Opinion. You can read
Speaker 1: more of Sarah's work and other stories from Bloomberg Opinion
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion, and on the Terminal
Speaker 1: by typing o p I n go So, Fannie, I
Speaker 1: think it's just more tough times for the retail retailers
Speaker 1: out there. It's gonna be really tough coming back from
Speaker 1: this pandemic, right, I mean, there were so many of
Speaker 1: them on the brink of bankruptcy. Anyway, if you listen
Speaker 1: to somebody like Howard Divito, Wits or whatever, he will
Speaker 1: tell you that, you know, they should have been bankrupt
Speaker 1: a long time ago, some of them. And obviously, this
Speaker 1: pivot online, as you said, Paul, is just going to
Speaker 1: accelerate and has been accelerating in the pandemic. So obviously,
Speaker 1: as we saw online shopping boosted massively, it doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that the brick and mortar stores will be able to
Speaker 1: stick around. And we are back looking forward to our
Speaker 1: chat with the illustrious David Kotag. Next. David joins us
Speaker 1: from Cumberland Advisors, where he's the chief investment Officer, chairman
Speaker 1: and of course just a friend of the show for decades.
Speaker 1: I would have to say, at this point, David, you've
Speaker 1: seen money markets sell off. David, is this a sell
Speaker 1: off based on panic, based on fundamentals, based on what
Speaker 1: FED chair Paul said yesterday, or all of the above? Oh, Vanni,
Speaker 1: thank you very much and nice to be with you
Speaker 1: and Paul, all of the above. In an extraordinary environment
Speaker 1: with a VIX, which is an indicator of volatility and
Speaker 1: risk that's contemporaneous with the markets, that has been at
Speaker 1: such a high level reflecting that volatility. You think about
Speaker 1: what we've done in three months. We went from thirty
Speaker 1: three hundred on the SMP back to thirty two hundred,
Speaker 1: and now we're somewhere around thirty one and in what
Speaker 1: looks like a very free fault. Temporarily, it's a wild time.
Speaker 1: So we're it's explainable by what you're just outlined, and
Speaker 1: there will be more, but I'm afraid to say so today,
Speaker 1: but we got another very difficult drobbles claims number today.
Speaker 1: We had FED chairman Pal yesterday calling out that a
Speaker 1: rebound in this economy will take longer than perhaps people anticipated.
Speaker 1: As you look across the credit spectrum, are you starting
Speaker 1: to see significant credit quality problems that are going to
Speaker 1: be an issue for investors going forward. Well, we worry
Speaker 1: about the credit problems, Paul. We have seen. We saw
Speaker 1: the credit spreads blowout at the end of March, and
Speaker 1: then the FED activities started to narrow them, and they
Speaker 1: narrowed wherever the market believed the FED would provide market
Speaker 1: function support and not only functioning, but liquidity to continuously functioned.
Speaker 1: So there is confidence restored in those credit spread and
Speaker 1: other credit spreads much less so. So there's a sort
Speaker 1: of a division. And I think in the market, I
Speaker 1: would draw the line at what was previously investment grade
Speaker 1: of any type. The FED is intent on trying to
Speaker 1: keep that a functioning market. If it was below if
Speaker 1: it was a junk credit, and the junk credit last fall,
Speaker 1: the FED is not going to go bail it out,
Speaker 1: but they do want market functionality. And I believe that's
Speaker 1: how you divide the credit analysis in a general thematic way.
Speaker 1: David Square off for me, the idea that this will
Speaker 1: be the shortest recession of all time with the data
Speaker 1: that we're seeing and what the FED chair said yesterday
Speaker 1: about unemployments still being just below time present by the
Speaker 1: end of the year and F one C member is
Speaker 1: not being able to forecast an interest rate increase until
Speaker 1: at least well. I can understand what j Pal tried
Speaker 1: to convey because he's feeling this so many unknowns, like
Speaker 1: how long the virus, how much damage does it do,
Speaker 1: When do we have curated treatment, super people have safety
Speaker 1: if they get sick, and when do we get a
Speaker 1: vaccine in mass distribution. We don't know that everything is
Speaker 1: being worked on. Everybody's hopeful, but we have no idea
Speaker 1: as to time. So he has to give himself a
Speaker 1: time cushion, and that would probably be a safe two years.
Speaker 1: The second thing he has to do is say, we
Speaker 1: don't know how deep and how much the damage will be.
Speaker 1: We're trying to buffer the damage. We're trying to bridge
Speaker 1: across the valley, and we cannot know how why the
Speaker 1: valley is and that was the nature of his message.
Speaker 1: I think the FED in the pal are doing a
Speaker 1: terrific job confronting something that is a once in a
Speaker 1: hundred year type of an event. So I believe they
Speaker 1: were candidate. They said what they did, They said, take
Speaker 1: this very seriously. Where markets were on this euphoric rise
Speaker 1: based upon opening up is an access market swing to
Speaker 1: access in both directions, and they did it over the
Speaker 1: last period of time, and now they're correcting the excess.
Speaker 1: If the sell off gets to the point where we
Speaker 1: think it is, it will present an entry opportunity again,
Speaker 1: because in the end of this there is recovery, and
Speaker 1: after the recovery there's a reconfiguration of economics. People forget,
Speaker 1: if I have another minute, Bunny and Paul. People forget
Speaker 1: there's a survivor bias under way here. Look at the
Speaker 1: SMP five index, for example, Macy's used to be in it.
Speaker 1: It's not in it anymore. It's still a five hundred index,
Speaker 1: but it's reconfigured by definition to capture and adjust for
Speaker 1: the changes. So, David, given that time frame that Chairman
Speaker 1: Pal suggested yesterday, perhaps a two year kind of time
Speaker 1: frame here for trying to get to the other side here,
Speaker 1: how how are you positioning your portfolio right now, given
Speaker 1: that again this may be a little bit longer to recover. Well,
Speaker 1: the first is today in the stock or FOLI we
Speaker 1: have a cash reserve, we have had it for a while.
Speaker 1: We will deploy it and reduce it on entries that
Speaker 1: appear inviting and we will raise it if markets go
Speaker 1: to access. Our biggest overweight in the United States and
Speaker 1: the US portfolio is the health care sector. We think
Speaker 1: when this is over, Paul, the healthcare sector in the
Speaker 1: United States will amount to the GDP of the country.
Speaker 1: That will be an all time record high American healthcare country.
Speaker 1: Companies in partnership with others around the world, are doing
Speaker 1: a stellar job in cooperatively developing what the tools will
Speaker 1: be to deal with the pandemic. It's this is how
Speaker 1: our biggest overweights there. We're worried about the geopolitics of
Speaker 1: the world, so we have an overweight the defense sector.
Speaker 1: I wish it weren't so. And we have a position
Speaker 1: which I really like because I think some changes are
Speaker 1: going to happen, and that's in water, wind and solar.
Speaker 1: We are overweight that package. We think there's going to
Speaker 1: be some reaction around the world. I wish there would
Speaker 1: be more to the change that's necessary to address climate change.
Speaker 1: That's a hopeful estimate, but we've got some money on
Speaker 1: it is happening. David Kotalk, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: joining us. As always, we appreciate your thoughts and commentary
Speaker 1: and your experience, the benefit of your experience. David Coo Talk,
Speaker 1: chairman and chief investment officer, a couple of advisors joining
Speaker 1: us at once again with his Sage Advice and Ronnie
Speaker 1: looking at the markets here. Uh, you know, continued weakness here.
Speaker 1: I think it's continuing the third day we've seen the
Speaker 1: sell off here, we're now uh four off on the Dow.
Speaker 1: Uh So again the market reacting to a confluence of
Speaker 1: events from the last several days. Yeah, and I mean,
Speaker 1: let's not overplay it right now because we had actually
Speaker 1: been out records before this, which was really sort of
Speaker 1: the stunning thing. But still for the year now the
Speaker 1: Dow was down about ten percent based on today's numbers included. Well,
Speaker 1: we certainly have equity markets trading off substance substantially today.
Speaker 1: The question is simply, is this something that is to
Speaker 1: be expected given the huge rebound we've had off the
Speaker 1: bottom source, it's suggesting something more. To get some color,
Speaker 1: we welcome Barry Ridholt's, founder of rit Holt's Wealth Management,
Speaker 1: is also Bloomberg Opinion calumnists and host of Masters in Business.
Speaker 1: So Barry, what say you about this market today? Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is kind of fascinating when you look at um
Speaker 1: the after the fact explanation, and we love to do that,
Speaker 1: We love to create a narrative about that. You had
Speaker 1: fed chair and Pal's comments about keeping rates low until
Speaker 1: two and I think he threw a little bit of
Speaker 1: cold water on the u V shape recovery expectations in
Speaker 1: the economy. This is going to be a long slow recovery,
Speaker 1: especially in the labor market. But also given all the
Speaker 1: reopenings of various states that we've seen over the past
Speaker 1: two weeks, the spike in new infections is definitely um
Speaker 1: startling people. It probably shouldn't, but uh, if you back
Speaker 1: out New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, in Massachusetts and look
Speaker 1: at the rest of the country that seems to have
Speaker 1: ramped up infection rates later than the Northeast, we are
Speaker 1: not doing a great job here. We're not doing a
Speaker 1: great job on flattening the curve elsewhere or testing and
Speaker 1: contact racing, and so we may see a reopening that
Speaker 1: stumbles and we go right back down to lockdown. If
Speaker 1: that's this gets much worse, and I think the markets
Speaker 1: are looking at that as well. Sorry, markets haven't really
Speaker 1: cared though about what good or about of a job
Speaker 1: we're doing on the pandemic. They only care if businesses
Speaker 1: are open, and they haven't seemed to be even worried
Speaker 1: about demand if businesses do open until literally today, Are
Speaker 1: you saying that suddenly markets change their mind about that, Um,
Speaker 1: you know. I don't think it's that the markets did
Speaker 1: not care about the lockdown or or or about how
Speaker 1: well we're doing. I think they were looking over the
Speaker 1: valley of the shutdown towards a treatment of vaccine contact tracing.
Speaker 1: I think they were very optimistic about our ability to
Speaker 1: manage this competently and allow if you look at Singapore
Speaker 1: or South Korea, you look at some of the other
Speaker 1: countries that have handled the shutdown and reopening well, the
Speaker 1: expectations where hey, hopefully we can do at least as
Speaker 1: well as that, and the early data that we're really
Speaker 1: just seeing. Remember you're always on a week to two
Speaker 1: week delay, and today is the eleven, so a lot
Speaker 1: of states that opened on the first we're just starting
Speaker 1: to see infection rates and hospitalization rates increase now and
Speaker 1: over the next few days, we're really going to find
Speaker 1: out what the opening did. I think this is new
Speaker 1: data that the market is incorporating and saying, hey, we
Speaker 1: are far less competent than other countries are in managing this,
Speaker 1: and there will be an economic price to pay if
Speaker 1: we don't do this right. Well, we have Secretary Mnution
Speaker 1: coming out suggesting that are saying that there will not
Speaker 1: be another I guess nationwide lockdown if the virus makes
Speaker 1: a return. So there's kind of a dulling narrative there, Barry.
Speaker 1: It's interesting, you know, fiscal stimulus has kind of gone
Speaker 1: into the back burner a little bit. There seems to
Speaker 1: be a lack of agreement between the Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: about the next round of stimulus. Is that something you
Speaker 1: think the market should be paying attention to, perhaps a
Speaker 1: little bit more so, So let me address both of
Speaker 1: those issues, Minution and the stimulus in one answer. Um,
Speaker 1: whether or not there's a national lockdown or not has
Speaker 1: become completely irrelevant because of the total um lack of
Speaker 1: leadership on a on a national basis in this it
Speaker 1: has fallen to the individual states, and we are now
Speaker 1: running fifty experiments. What what happens in Wyoming is different
Speaker 1: than California and Florida and Massachusetts and New York, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So if if the Treasury Secretary is focused on a
Speaker 1: national lockdown question, he's missing what's actually taking place where
Speaker 1: boots are on the ground, what's actually happening state by state.
Speaker 1: And the answer to your question about UM another round
Speaker 1: of stimulus depends on how bad the sell off gets.
Speaker 1: I don't mean today, I mean over the next couple
Speaker 1: of months. Think back to September and October two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, when we first introduced some form of of
Speaker 1: UM national rescue plan for the Great Financial Crisis. Congress
Speaker 1: said no, and then the Dow had its worst week
Speaker 1: in decades, and by that Monday, no, by Friday became yes.
Speaker 1: Let this market sell off another ten that's good for
Speaker 1: a trillion dollars. Let it sell down another thirty from here,
Speaker 1: and you'll see another two and a half three trillion dollars.
Speaker 1: Congress and the President react to a variety of signals.
Speaker 1: Nothing scares the but Jesus set of people like seeing
Speaker 1: the market lose a third of its value in a
Speaker 1: month or two. That motivates them. Barry, we have to
Speaker 1: leave there already. I did want to ask you about
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve chairman and concerns about some kind of
Speaker 1: frosthiness here, but we're going to have to wait for
Speaker 1: the next time. And anyway, we're seeing us frothiness today.
Speaker 1: That is very riddles of riddles wealth management, of course
Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columns. Of his latest columns include talking about
Speaker 1: market panic, selling, and other behavioral aspects to this market performance,
Speaker 1: speaking of which we are down three point seven five
Speaker 1: percent on the Dow Johnes Industrial Average, the SMP down three,
Speaker 1: and the NAZAC is the winner today pole but it
Speaker 1: is still down two. Yeah. Yeah, significant layoff sell off here,
Speaker 1: and it's barried with suggesting some combination of the Fed
Speaker 1: chairman's comments yesterday about the longer term trends for the economy,
Speaker 1: plus some you know, growing news and growing awareness of
Speaker 1: perhaps a second wave in certain regions of the country.
Speaker 1: So the market's kind of digesting that new news and
Speaker 1: will certainly followed up throughout the remainder of the day. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, if we're looking at an unappointment rate of
Speaker 1: just blow time percent at the end of the year,
Speaker 1: that is not a pretty picture. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to
Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever. Podcast platform you prefer.
Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonny Quinn and
Speaker 1: on Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before
Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. Well. Eh,