WEBVTT - Jimmy Carter, Former US President Dies at 100 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:12.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.240 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card playing Android 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:18.400 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:22.280 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.799 I want to bring back in David Weston, host of 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:29.160 Wall Street Week, to talk about the legacy of President Carter. 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.800 And you know, we talked a little about his four 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:33.960 years in office, but I think where he really made 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:38.240 his mark was after that. He won the Nobel Peace Prize. 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:41.200 You mentioned the Camp David Accords. He worked towards peace 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:44.279 for the rest of his life. What are the standout 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:46.040 accomplishments achievements. 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:47.960 It's interesting you mentioned the Nobel Peace Prize, which was 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.199 actually for what he did after lift office, not for 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:52.440 the Camp David Accords. One might have thought he might 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:54.520 have gotten for that. Actually was for what happened afterwards, 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:56.440 because as you know, he set up the Carter Center 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.600 and really traveled the world a policing election, making sure 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:03.240 democracy was succeeding, also fighting for human rights and of 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:07.840 course for diseases like in Sub Saharan Africa. He was 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.600 really in the vanguard of that, so he did a 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:13.120 huge amount. And then of course there's habitat for humanity 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:15.600 in the United States where he would go out and 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:19.120 build houses. A really extraordinary period post presidency. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:20.840 Something I've been thinking about a lot over the last 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.520 twenty four hours is some of the things that happened 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.839 at that time. For example, you mentioned Paul Vulker leading 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.759 the FED really bringing down inflation in a really aggressive way, 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:34.000 something Carter was very of course and supportive and needed 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:36.920 to happen. Did happen painful choice at the time. Do 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:40.880 you think choosing policy over politics would happen in that 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:41.680 kind of a manner. 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:43.279 That's a great question. 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.080 Certainly he did do that, and a lot of people 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.480 really say that's why he got beaten so badly by 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:52.560 Ronald Reagan, because he was very principled. Whatever you think 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:56.040 about his policies, he was a very principled man, and 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.720 he would follow policy no matter what, even with Paul Volker. 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:00.600 When Paul Vulker said, you know, we're going to really 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:03.320 run into a recession, he said, I'll handle the politics, 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.320 you handled the economy, And he really backed him on that, 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:08.880 knowing that he would pay a very steep price he 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.640 started to did have we seen that since then? I'm 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:15.440 not sure. I mean, it's fairly hard to find true 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:17.960 profiles and courage these days, I would say, and I'm 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:19.920 saying that for both Democrats and Republicans. 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:20.760 It's hard to find that. 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:24.520 Right even in today's Republican party. If you were to 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.720 go against the grain, your primary seat is being threatened already, 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:29.080 So I don't know that that could happen. 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:31.240 Well, that's true, but I would say this is getting 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.200 into politics. But I think there's a version of the 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:36.240 Democratic side too, where you had Joe Biden go in 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.680 and become president and it seemed to trim his sales 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.120 because of his concerns with the left wing of the party. 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.320 So you know, I think that to Song said he 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:47.000 was hemmed in by that as well. So I'm afraid 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:50.680 things have evolved. But Carter was sort of a transitional figure. 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.799 I mean, let's be frank Gerald. Ford lost him by 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:56.760 a narrow margin, in large part because he pardoned President 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.639 Nixon and so he came in. He was from no where. 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:03.120 He was an outsider, maybe our first outsider as president, 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:06.160 because his presidensor has all been insiders. Maybe in that 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.560 way he led the path. Wall Street Journal wrote about 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.639 this today, maybe led the path toward to Donald Trump. 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:14.560 I think one of the legacies of President Carter is 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:19.079 his post presidential career, which was so rich and so diverse, 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:21.520 and it almost kind of set the template for some 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:23.800 of the other presidents. How do I spend my post 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:27.040 presidential years, you know, having my centers and trying to 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:30.800 you know, be active and constructive and it. You know, 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:34.320 certainly President Carter did that as well as anybody. 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:34.880 No think. 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:37.680 I think he did change the nature of post presidency. 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.160 I think is exactly right, Paul. And certainly we saw 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.800 with Bill Clinton that happened, George Herbert Walker Bush for 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.640 that happened even George W. Bush, who doesn't get as 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:47.839 much attention for it. He's done a lot of good 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:50.640 with his Presidential Library and his center as well, and 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.080 has really devoted himself to doing good things and using 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:57.520 their status to really accomplish things around the world. And 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.440 I think Carter did change the entire nature of what 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:01.920 happens after your president. 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.080 All right, David Weston, host of Wall Street Week, thanks 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.800 very much for joining us on the legacy of Jimmy Carter. 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.560 What can we expect from Wall Street Week coming up 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:11.400 on this Friday. 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:12.960 Okay, So we're going to. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.160 Take a look forward into what we're seeing in twenty 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.680 twenty five and what the biggest issues are that we're 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:19.080 going to have, and so we're going to try to 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:21.400 set that out, to set the table, as it were. 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:23.240 And then I'm going to get on the road and 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.640 go out to visit oil fields in the middle of winter. 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:26.159 Cool. 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:28.760 Yeah, I'm in with you on Wyoming out of Wyoming 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:30.400 to report on methane. 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.600 I would like to go to Wyoming right now too. 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:34.560 I feel like it's a great time to go to Wyoming. 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:36.240 I think you could go to Jackson Hall, Jackson Hole. 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:38.880 Yeah, well, I just stop in Jackson Hall, then I 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.760 drive for a couple hours outside of Jackson Hole. 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:44.520 David, thank you so very much for joining us. Of course, 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:46.560 on the legacy of Jimmy Carter. We're looking for to 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:48.720 your Wall Street Week. Of course, everyone is taking out 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:51.400 their playbook for twenty twenty five. It's going to set 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.320 up to be a difficult one, a lot of questions 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.600 around which industries will succeed. 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:01.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:04.680 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.479 Otto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.680 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.799 Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:17.279 Let's bring in Claudia Slam. She's a New Century Advisor's 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:21.080 chief economists, former Federal Reserve economists as well, and a 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:25.599 good friend of Bloomberg. Claudia, let's think about twenty twenty five. 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.560 I mean, I've got an economy that I think is 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:31.000 you know, kind of puts it along pretty darn well. 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:32.760 I got inflation that well, I'd like it to be 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:34.040 a little bit lower. The Fed would like it to 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:37.240 be a little bit lower. It's reasonable the labor market, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.640 people who want a job generally have a job. They're 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.760 getting some wage increases. What are you telling your clients 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:44.560 about twenty twenty five in this economy? 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:47.880 Don't be complacent. 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.000 I mean these, as you said, if we could keep 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.040 it as it is right now, largely, this would be 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:56.520 another great year ahead of us. You know, we've been 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:58.640 surprised at how well the past two years have gone, 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.080 particularly when you think about both on how the consumers 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.040 have held up, uh and that, but that doesn't have 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.000 to keep going. So what we really want people to 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.000 focus on are what like the blind spots right what 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:16.480 could go wrong? Where who isn't getting enough attention? And 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:18.080 I think one area, you know, if I had to 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:20.839 maybe point some FED officials to a blind spot, I 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:24.320 think they showed a lot of complacency in their last 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.680 summary of economic projections on how well the labor market 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.400 would continue to hold up. You know what we saw 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:32.920 them kind of write down the typical. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:34.880 Official was something that basically has. 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.440 The unemployment rates sticking out where it is right now 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:41.280 for the next three years. That's a pretty remarkable and 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:46.480 frankly not would be very unusual path to the labor market. 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.400 And that's and yet there was all kinds of concerns 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:50.919 about inflation and the answer to round inflation. But I 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.400 think I keep I'm still concerned that there are things 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.840 in the labor market, while good, don't quite look like 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:01.120 sustainable and that's where the problems can come in. 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:03.080 And so that's that's. 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.800 One way audio. So if I ask which is a 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:10.280 bigger risk a weakening labor market or stubborn inflation, you're 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:11.880 going with the former rather than the latter. 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:14.760 Inflation's fine right now. 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.400 I mean, we are really not that far from two percent, 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.200 and we've seen a lot of encouraging signs under the 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.320 hood that this we are getting to this last mile 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:23.080 on inflation. 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:27.360 But right now, before tariffs, that's before we deep work, 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:31.200 before millions of workers, that's before Donald Trump comes into office. 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.680 So things could change drastically after January twentieth. 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.880 Absolutely, they could change drastically. 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.400 And I think it's appropriate that we have had a 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.880 very deep conversation about the policies that have been put 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:45.480 on the table. There have been a lot of policies 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.160 put on the table, and it's really important to have 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.240 this conversation and talk about some of their potential pitfalls 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.960 and maybe we won't see all of them put into place, 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.240 and that probably would be a good thing, uh, for 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:58.360 the economy. And yet, you know, kind of taking for 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:00.680 granted the good stuff that we've got going in the 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:04.400 economy that's a little more nuts and bolts, like the 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.480 labor market functioning, and just saying, oh, well, that'll just 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:09.760 keep going, that's all fine, it's in a good place. 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.320 I think that's a real that could be a real mistake. 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:16.800 In terms of because the labor market in particular is 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:19.800 always and has been the past few year, is such 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:25.640 a lynchpin to this amazing period of a big disinflation. 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:30.280 Growth has stayed strong and unemployment has stayed relatively low, 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:32.360 you know, and that's something we want to keep going. 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:34.800 And I don't think that's to just be taken for granted. 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:38.319 I think I'm very unpopular for asking this question repeatedly. 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:42.000 I know, you got to look at all the risks, 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:44.800 right and if you have to think about potentially inflationary 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:50.120 policies and sticky areas of inflation next year, and worries 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:53.720 about growth as well, especially if you have kind of 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:58.000 a fiscal appetite to pull back. How big of an 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.559 issue with stagflation or big of a world whe is it? 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.800 There are absolutely paths we could go down where we 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.439 end up in a stagflationary environment. 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.160 We're good ways from that point. 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.000 Because again we're starting from a well above trend growth 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:20.240 and inflation is relatively low. It's not to do percent, 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:23.000 but it's relatively low. But there are absolutely paths we 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:27.040 could go on that are uh could get us a stagflation. 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:28.880 And the thing about stagflation is, you know, we talked 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:30.480 about Oh, think about all the different risks and keep 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:31.960 an eye out to the risk. And we do need 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:32.360 to do that. 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.600 But some risks come with. 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:41.800 Bigger problems, right, Solving a stagflationary economic environment, like policy 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.760 solutions for that are a lot trickier because, say, for 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.600 the FED example, they're fighting both inflation and trying to 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.040 keep employment high. 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:51.840 Right, and their tools are going to be at odds 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:52.360 with each other. 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.400 So there's some like dark corners of the economic world 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.200 that we want to stay away from because if we 0:09:57.240 --> 0:09:59.520 get there, they're a big problems. So I think it's 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:01.840 important to think about secflation. I don't think that's one 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.920 that's like highest probability, but if we get there, is 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:08.240 probably one of the highest probability of being a big mess. 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:11.800 How does the consumer look to you, Claudia, Because as 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:14.920 you pointed out at the top, the consumer held up 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.880 much better than we had anticipated in twenty twenty four, 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:23.040 and yet all the savings I would guess are spent 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:27.720 off the pandemic era savings. This is a consumer that 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:31.679 at least the bottom you know, four Quinn tiles, is 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:35.600 not well prepared for retirement. The housing market is a 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.520 tough one to get into if you aren't already, and 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:43.040 I guess if you are, that's how you fund your retirement. 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:44.840 But what does the consumer look like to you right now? 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:46.280 In the US? 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:50.760 So as a whole, the consumer is still in a 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:53.520 good place. We certainly as time has gone on, we 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.719 have seen more strains at lower income household That's why 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:58.920 I keep coming back to the labor market as so 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:03.080 essential because from most Americans that's where the money comes from, 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.280 that they're going to be spending. So you need a 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.360 vibrant labor market that has good, strong wage growth as 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.840 we have seen, and good job opportunities. So that is 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:14.559 so important for the bulk of Americans, the bulk of consumers. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.560 You know, we've also seen really positive trends with some 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:22.640 probably middle class, upper middle class, wealthier consumers bolstered by 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:24.920 you know, the stock market has been very good. We've 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.960 had you know, we've had some trends that have continued 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.240 to bolster the consumer and their demand. And you know, 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:33.120 I mean I always say, don't bet against the American consumer, 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:34.760 right Like, if they have if they have the music 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:36.559 out and spend, they're gonna they're going to spend. 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.400 And that's what we have that's what we have seen 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:39.400 the past few years. 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.600 Should I be concerned about this, this weakness in the 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:46.040 manufacturing sector. I know it's only and I just underline, 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:50.719 only thirty percent of the US economy, But what does 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:52.199 that tell you? How do you think about that? 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.760 I think we've seen not just one more data point 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.320 of weakness from the manufacturing sector. I mean, we've seen 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:05.880 years of what could be seen as contractionary trends in manufacturing, 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:08.320 and and there, you know, we have to have a 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:11.320 discussion that's more about a structural you know, this this 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:15.079 is an economy that just hasn't been based on manufacturing 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:15.600 the same. 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.080 Way it had been many decades ago. 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.960 And this is a transition that's been happening very slowly 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.360 over time. And it's probably one of the discussions that's 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.520 hardest to have data release date to data release, right 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:29.400 because it just kind of the trends get glomed together. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:32.800 So and then you know, and we're having a very 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:34.720 robust and I think a lot you know, this year, 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:37.480 a big part of this policy discussion is going to 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:42.000 be center around do you revive the manufacturing sector in 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:42.800 the United States? 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:43.800 And how do you do it best? 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.000 I mean, we certainly saw under President Biden a lot 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:49.360 of tax incentives and big, large programs. We're trying to 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.360 give money to companies to build up manufacturing in different 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:55.959 specific sectors, and we may see an approach that's quite 0:12:56.000 --> 0:13:00.680 different in using tariffs to protect domestic industries and manufacturing 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:01.600 being one in the area. 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:02.480 So I think it's going to. 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.319 Be an ongoing discussion, but it really is more about 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:09.280 the deep underlying structure of the US economy and what 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.040 we want that deep underlying structure of the US economy 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:13.320 to look like clytie. 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:14.920 You know, you look at the long end of the 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:19.559 curve and just how much tenure thirty year rates have decoupled. 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.880 How much ConTroll does the Federal Reserve really have over 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:27.160 that longer end when you see investors equally concerned about 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.880 other issues like the fiscal term premium needed. 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:36.400 So the FED never hasn't never will have full control 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:39.880 over a ten year horizon. So that much shorter horizons 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:41.840 of treasury is like the two year you can really 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.679 have a conversation about the FED is very active in 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:46.600 what those treasure yields look like. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:47.400 Out of the tenure. 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:51.520 There always are a host of concerns about or issues 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:53.520 in the US economy that are going to fit into 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.560 what do those treasury yields look like? And I think 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.200 we may there's just a lot of action right now. 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.280 Right there's a lot of information coming out of the 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:05.400 FED in terms of where they think they're going to 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.120 end up in terms of or potentially end up with 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.520 the rates. And this whole discussion about the terminal rate 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.720 or the neutral rate of interest, it's actually one where 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.760 while it comes out of FED official's mouths, it is 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.480 tied very much back to these structural features of the 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:29.680 economy and those are things like productivity or concerns about debt, sustainability, demographics, 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:33.320 other big issues, and those then can get I mean, 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.600 those are also issues that the tenure Treasury plays into. 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.640 So while as you said, the FED doesn't control the 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:41.720 tenure Treasury, and maybe we're seeing that. 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.480 Potentially some of those links weaken even more just because 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.640 the room is getting crowded in terms of issues that 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:53.000 people in the treasure markets need to absorb. But I 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:57.360 don't It's it's nothing unusual per se. It's what's maybe 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:00.120 more unusual is we're having there's big question marks out 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.360 there about the structure of the economy like we are 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.400 we a stronger economy or are we going to withstand 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.040 and really thrive with higher interest rates than. 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.240 We did for the pandemic. 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.600 I mean these and they're very much open questions right 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:17.000 now and very very central to where those longer dated 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:18.360 treasury markets will land. 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.920 I have a curveball question for you, Claudia as Good 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.760 an economist. Were you at the Beta Theta pie house 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:31.000 in March of nineteen ninety No, I'm kidding. What do 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.760 you think about the effect of GLP one drugs on 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.400 the US economy? We had a listener right in earlier 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.640 asking why you know the government doesn't just subsidize these 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.760 things and save US billions of dollars a year in 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.800 terms of healthcare. What do you think about the effect 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:51.800 of this drug? Have you given it any thought? 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:58.600 I think the way an economists like I said, would 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.680 probably tie this back in into this economic discussion would 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:08.160 be to think about the ability it gives individuals to 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:12.120 be more productive as workers. You know, and this lives 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.040 in the broad category of health and all all the 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:18.400 different kinds of pharmaceuticals and healthcare that we provide individuals 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:22.080 or they have access to that. Can you know, potentially 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.200 lengthen lives, make them more rich and fulfilling, make them 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.920 more able to stay off save disability roles, and be 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.280 in the workforce. So I think, you know, a healthier, 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.840 more productive workforce is one that is going to you know, 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.480 benefit the economy as a whole, do I think, But 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.440 that's me again being macroeconomist, a very big picture thinking 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.960 about the labor market as I often do, and not. 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:46.560 You know, there absolutely will be disruption under the hood 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:50.320 in terms of winners and losers in the economy from 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:55.360 you know, particular industries or particular institutions, and there will 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.760 be I mean, there's an answer to that question in 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:02.600 the beginning. I mean the massive budgetary impacts if say 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.719 Medicare or large government programs pick up these these kind 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.080 of drugs. Right, So there's all kinds of issues here. 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:10.679 But I think in terms of you know, a quality 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.960 of life, a healthier, healthier population, there is a lot 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:17.560 of both individual benefits and then their social benefits from 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:19.800 you know, if the healthier population as a whole. 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:21.600 Gladdy, we have to leave it there. Thank you so 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:23.679 very much for joining us today. Of course, it's a 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:27.800 wild bond market out there, and expect expectations changing quickly 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.119 around the course for next year as well. 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:35.520 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:38.720 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cardplay and Android 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.840 Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:46.200 you get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube. 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.880 All right, President elect Donald Trump is offering his complete 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.240 and total endorsement to Speaker Mike Johnson as he wards 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.280 off a potentially crippling leadership fight in the House that 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.920 threatens to slow his agendic Greg Valley are agf ands 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:04.440 San's chief US policy strategist joints US. Now, Greg, what's 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:08.000 the position of President Trump? President Elect Trump here as 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.959 he gets ready to take office January twentieth. 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:16.840 That's incredibly uncertain, and it depends on who you talk at, 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.000 what time of the day is you know, we're going 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.560 to raise the death ceiling and we're going to invade Toronto. 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.760 Are we going to have who are we going to 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.959 have as Speaker of the House. These stories change almost 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.320 by the hour, and I think we're all going to 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.080 have to get used to this uncertainty for the next 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:33.760 four years. 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.080 If you have uncertainty over the next four years. Where 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.400 would it be the most at this point because there 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.280 are range of issues that investors are keeping an eye on, 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.679 the country is keeping an eye on. We talk a 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.760 lot about tariffs here at Bloomberg News. Of course that 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.760 is one of the places that of course we don't 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.200 know the plan yet. But how do you think about 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:58.600 this in terms of where the president elect will spar 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.120 with Congress. 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:04.359 His promises have been so grandiose that I think he 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:08.399 has to sort of stand up for what he has said. 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.280 I think on inauguration day, on the twentieth, we'll be 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.720 talking about terrace. I think he has to move on 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:19.520 that against China, Canada, other countries and immigration. 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:21.080 He has to move on that. 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:25.040 A failure to do what he has promised would would 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:28.480 really set him up for mockery and it would embolden 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:29.800 people like Elon Musk. 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.320 I will chime in on something that I haven't brought 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:38.280 up yet. Okay, Donald Trump promised to get rid of 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:41.480 the state and local tax deduction cap that he put 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:42.040 on the. 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:46.080 Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts. 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:51.440 So, as we all know, before Trump came into office, 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.760 you could write off your state and local taxes from 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:57.280 your federal filing. He said he's going to get rid 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.399 of that cap that he put into place. What do 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:00.760 you think the likely of that is. 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:03.679