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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card playing Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: I want to bring back in David Weston, host of

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Speaker 3: Wall Street Week, to talk about the legacy of President Carter.

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Speaker 3: And you know, we talked a little about his four

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Speaker 3: years in office, but I think where he really made

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Speaker 3: his mark was after that. He won the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the Camp David Accords. He worked towards peace

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Speaker 3: for the rest of his life. What are the standout

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Speaker 3: accomplishments achievements.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting you mentioned the Nobel Peace Prize, which was

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Speaker 4: actually for what he did after lift office, not for

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Speaker 4: the Camp David Accords. One might have thought he might

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Speaker 4: have gotten for that. Actually was for what happened afterwards,

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Speaker 4: because as you know, he set up the Carter Center

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Speaker 4: and really traveled the world a policing election, making sure

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Speaker 4: democracy was succeeding, also fighting for human rights and of

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Speaker 4: course for diseases like in Sub Saharan Africa. He was

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Speaker 4: really in the vanguard of that, so he did a

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Speaker 4: huge amount. And then of course there's habitat for humanity

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Speaker 4: in the United States where he would go out and

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Speaker 4: build houses. A really extraordinary period post presidency.

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Speaker 5: Something I've been thinking about a lot over the last

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Speaker 5: twenty four hours is some of the things that happened

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Speaker 5: at that time. For example, you mentioned Paul Vulker leading

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Speaker 5: the FED really bringing down inflation in a really aggressive way,

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Speaker 5: something Carter was very of course and supportive and needed

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Speaker 5: to happen. Did happen painful choice at the time. Do

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Speaker 5: you think choosing policy over politics would happen in that

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Speaker 5: kind of a manner.

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Speaker 6: That's a great question.

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Speaker 4: Certainly he did do that, and a lot of people

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Speaker 4: really say that's why he got beaten so badly by

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Speaker 4: Ronald Reagan, because he was very principled. Whatever you think

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Speaker 4: about his policies, he was a very principled man, and

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Speaker 4: he would follow policy no matter what, even with Paul Volker.

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Speaker 4: When Paul Vulker said, you know, we're going to really

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Speaker 4: run into a recession, he said, I'll handle the politics,

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Speaker 4: you handled the economy, And he really backed him on that,

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Speaker 4: knowing that he would pay a very steep price he

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Speaker 4: started to did have we seen that since then? I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure. I mean, it's fairly hard to find true

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Speaker 4: profiles and courage these days, I would say, and I'm

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Speaker 4: saying that for both Democrats and Republicans.

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Speaker 6: It's hard to find that.

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Speaker 5: Right even in today's Republican party. If you were to

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Speaker 5: go against the grain, your primary seat is being threatened already,

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Speaker 5: So I don't know that that could happen.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's true, but I would say this is getting

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Speaker 4: into politics. But I think there's a version of the

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Speaker 4: Democratic side too, where you had Joe Biden go in

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Speaker 4: and become president and it seemed to trim his sales

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Speaker 4: because of his concerns with the left wing of the party.

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Speaker 4: So you know, I think that to Song said he

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Speaker 4: was hemmed in by that as well. So I'm afraid

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Speaker 4: things have evolved. But Carter was sort of a transitional figure.

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Speaker 4: I mean, let's be frank Gerald. Ford lost him by

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Speaker 4: a narrow margin, in large part because he pardoned President

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Speaker 4: Nixon and so he came in. He was from no where.

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Speaker 4: He was an outsider, maybe our first outsider as president,

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Speaker 4: because his presidensor has all been insiders. Maybe in that

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Speaker 4: way he led the path. Wall Street Journal wrote about

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Speaker 4: this today, maybe led the path toward to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 7: I think one of the legacies of President Carter is

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Speaker 7: his post presidential career, which was so rich and so diverse,

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Speaker 7: and it almost kind of set the template for some

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Speaker 7: of the other presidents. How do I spend my post

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Speaker 7: presidential years, you know, having my centers and trying to

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Speaker 7: you know, be active and constructive and it. You know,

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Speaker 7: certainly President Carter did that as well as anybody.

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Speaker 2: No think.

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Speaker 4: I think he did change the nature of post presidency.

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Speaker 4: I think is exactly right, Paul. And certainly we saw

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Speaker 4: with Bill Clinton that happened, George Herbert Walker Bush for

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Speaker 4: that happened even George W. Bush, who doesn't get as

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Speaker 4: much attention for it. He's done a lot of good

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Speaker 4: with his Presidential Library and his center as well, and

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Speaker 4: has really devoted himself to doing good things and using

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Speaker 4: their status to really accomplish things around the world. And

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Speaker 4: I think Carter did change the entire nature of what

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Speaker 4: happens after your president.

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Speaker 3: All right, David Weston, host of Wall Street Week, thanks

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Speaker 3: very much for joining us on the legacy of Jimmy Carter.

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Speaker 3: What can we expect from Wall Street Week coming up

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Speaker 3: on this Friday.

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Speaker 6: Okay, So we're going to.

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Speaker 4: Take a look forward into what we're seeing in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty five and what the biggest issues are that we're

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Speaker 4: going to have, and so we're going to try to

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Speaker 4: set that out, to set the table, as it were.

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Speaker 4: And then I'm going to get on the road and

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Speaker 4: go out to visit oil fields in the middle of winter.

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Speaker 6: Cool.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in with you on Wyoming out of Wyoming

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Speaker 4: to report on methane.

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Speaker 3: I would like to go to Wyoming right now too.

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Speaker 3: I feel like it's a great time to go to Wyoming.

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Speaker 3: I think you could go to Jackson Hall, Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I just stop in Jackson Hall, then I

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Speaker 4: drive for a couple hours outside of Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 5: David, thank you so very much for joining us. Of course,

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Speaker 5: on the legacy of Jimmy Carter. We're looking for to

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Speaker 5: your Wall Street Week. Of course, everyone is taking out

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Speaker 5: their playbook for twenty twenty five. It's going to set

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Speaker 5: up to be a difficult one, a lot of questions

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Speaker 5: around which industries will succeed.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Otto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 7: Let's bring in Claudia Slam. She's a New Century Advisor's

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Speaker 7: chief economists, former Federal Reserve economists as well, and a

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Speaker 7: good friend of Bloomberg. Claudia, let's think about twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I've got an economy that I think is

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Speaker 7: you know, kind of puts it along pretty darn well.

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Speaker 7: I got inflation that well, I'd like it to be

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Speaker 7: a little bit lower. The Fed would like it to

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Speaker 7: be a little bit lower. It's reasonable the labor market,

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Speaker 7: people who want a job generally have a job. They're

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Speaker 7: getting some wage increases. What are you telling your clients

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Speaker 7: about twenty twenty five in this economy?

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Speaker 1: Don't be complacent.

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Speaker 8: I mean these, as you said, if we could keep

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Speaker 8: it as it is right now, largely, this would be

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Speaker 8: another great year ahead of us. You know, we've been

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Speaker 8: surprised at how well the past two years have gone,

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Speaker 8: particularly when you think about both on how the consumers

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Speaker 8: have held up, uh and that, but that doesn't have

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Speaker 8: to keep going. So what we really want people to

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Speaker 8: focus on are what like the blind spots right what

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Speaker 8: could go wrong? Where who isn't getting enough attention? And

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Speaker 8: I think one area, you know, if I had to

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Speaker 8: maybe point some FED officials to a blind spot, I

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Speaker 8: think they showed a lot of complacency in their last

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Speaker 8: summary of economic projections on how well the labor market

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Speaker 8: would continue to hold up. You know what we saw

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Speaker 8: them kind of write down the typical.

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Speaker 1: Official was something that basically has.

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Speaker 8: The unemployment rates sticking out where it is right now

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Speaker 8: for the next three years. That's a pretty remarkable and

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Speaker 8: frankly not would be very unusual path to the labor market.

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Speaker 8: And that's and yet there was all kinds of concerns

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Speaker 8: about inflation and the answer to round inflation. But I

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Speaker 8: think I keep I'm still concerned that there are things

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Speaker 8: in the labor market, while good, don't quite look like

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Speaker 8: sustainable and that's where the problems can come in.

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Speaker 1: And so that's that's.

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Speaker 3: One way audio. So if I ask which is a

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Speaker 3: bigger risk a weakening labor market or stubborn inflation, you're

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Speaker 3: going with the former rather than the latter.

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Speaker 1: Inflation's fine right now.

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Speaker 8: I mean, we are really not that far from two percent,

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Speaker 8: and we've seen a lot of encouraging signs under the

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Speaker 8: hood that this we are getting to this last mile

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Speaker 8: on inflation.

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Speaker 3: But right now, before tariffs, that's before we deep work,

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Speaker 3: before millions of workers, that's before Donald Trump comes into office.

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Speaker 3: So things could change drastically after January twentieth.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, they could change drastically.

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Speaker 8: And I think it's appropriate that we have had a

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Speaker 8: very deep conversation about the policies that have been put

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Speaker 8: on the table. There have been a lot of policies

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Speaker 8: put on the table, and it's really important to have

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Speaker 8: this conversation and talk about some of their potential pitfalls

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Speaker 8: and maybe we won't see all of them put into place,

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Speaker 8: and that probably would be a good thing, uh, for

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Speaker 8: the economy. And yet, you know, kind of taking for

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Speaker 8: granted the good stuff that we've got going in the

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Speaker 8: economy that's a little more nuts and bolts, like the

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Speaker 8: labor market functioning, and just saying, oh, well, that'll just

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Speaker 8: keep going, that's all fine, it's in a good place.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a real that could be a real mistake.

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Speaker 8: In terms of because the labor market in particular is

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Speaker 8: always and has been the past few year, is such

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Speaker 8: a lynchpin to this amazing period of a big disinflation.

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Speaker 8: Growth has stayed strong and unemployment has stayed relatively low,

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Speaker 8: you know, and that's something we want to keep going.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that's to just be taken for granted.

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Speaker 5: I think I'm very unpopular for asking this question repeatedly.

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Speaker 5: I know, you got to look at all the risks,

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Speaker 5: right and if you have to think about potentially inflationary

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Speaker 5: policies and sticky areas of inflation next year, and worries

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Speaker 5: about growth as well, especially if you have kind of

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Speaker 5: a fiscal appetite to pull back. How big of an

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Speaker 5: issue with stagflation or big of a world whe is it?

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Speaker 8: There are absolutely paths we could go down where we

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Speaker 8: end up in a stagflationary environment.

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Speaker 1: We're good ways from that point.

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Speaker 8: Because again we're starting from a well above trend growth

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Speaker 8: and inflation is relatively low. It's not to do percent,

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Speaker 8: but it's relatively low. But there are absolutely paths we

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Speaker 8: could go on that are uh could get us a stagflation.

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Speaker 8: And the thing about stagflation is, you know, we talked

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Speaker 8: about Oh, think about all the different risks and keep

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Speaker 8: an eye out to the risk. And we do need

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Speaker 8: to do that.

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Speaker 1: But some risks come with.

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Speaker 8: Bigger problems, right, Solving a stagflationary economic environment, like policy

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Speaker 8: solutions for that are a lot trickier because, say, for

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Speaker 8: the FED example, they're fighting both inflation and trying to

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Speaker 8: keep employment high.

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Speaker 1: Right, and their tools are going to be at odds

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Speaker 1: with each other.

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Speaker 8: So there's some like dark corners of the economic world

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Speaker 8: that we want to stay away from because if we

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Speaker 8: get there, they're a big problems. So I think it's

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Speaker 8: important to think about secflation. I don't think that's one

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Speaker 8: that's like highest probability, but if we get there, is

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Speaker 8: probably one of the highest probability of being a big mess.

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Speaker 3: How does the consumer look to you, Claudia, Because as

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Speaker 3: you pointed out at the top, the consumer held up

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Speaker 3: much better than we had anticipated in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 3: and yet all the savings I would guess are spent

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Speaker 3: off the pandemic era savings. This is a consumer that

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Speaker 3: at least the bottom you know, four Quinn tiles, is

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Speaker 3: not well prepared for retirement. The housing market is a

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Speaker 3: tough one to get into if you aren't already, and

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Speaker 3: I guess if you are, that's how you fund your retirement.

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Speaker 3: But what does the consumer look like to you right now?

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Speaker 1: In the US?

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Speaker 8: So as a whole, the consumer is still in a

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Speaker 8: good place. We certainly as time has gone on, we

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Speaker 8: have seen more strains at lower income household That's why

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Speaker 8: I keep coming back to the labor market as so

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Speaker 8: essential because from most Americans that's where the money comes from,

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Speaker 8: that they're going to be spending. So you need a

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Speaker 8: vibrant labor market that has good, strong wage growth as

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Speaker 8: we have seen, and good job opportunities. So that is

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Speaker 8: so important for the bulk of Americans, the bulk of consumers.

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Speaker 8: You know, we've also seen really positive trends with some

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Speaker 8: probably middle class, upper middle class, wealthier consumers bolstered by

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Speaker 8: you know, the stock market has been very good. We've

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Speaker 8: had you know, we've had some trends that have continued

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Speaker 8: to bolster the consumer and their demand. And you know,

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Speaker 8: I mean I always say, don't bet against the American consumer,

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Speaker 8: right Like, if they have if they have the music

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Speaker 8: out and spend, they're gonna they're going to spend.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we have that's what we have seen

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Speaker 1: the past few years.

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Speaker 7: Should I be concerned about this, this weakness in the

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Speaker 7: manufacturing sector. I know it's only and I just underline,

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Speaker 7: only thirty percent of the US economy, But what does

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Speaker 7: that tell you? How do you think about that?

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Speaker 8: I think we've seen not just one more data point

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Speaker 8: of weakness from the manufacturing sector. I mean, we've seen

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Speaker 8: years of what could be seen as contractionary trends in manufacturing,

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Speaker 8: and and there, you know, we have to have a

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Speaker 8: discussion that's more about a structural you know, this this

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Speaker 8: is an economy that just hasn't been based on manufacturing

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Speaker 8: the same.

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Speaker 1: Way it had been many decades ago.

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Speaker 8: And this is a transition that's been happening very slowly

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Speaker 8: over time. And it's probably one of the discussions that's

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Speaker 8: hardest to have data release date to data release, right

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Speaker 8: because it just kind of the trends get glomed together.

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Speaker 8: So and then you know, and we're having a very

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Speaker 8: robust and I think a lot you know, this year,

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Speaker 8: a big part of this policy discussion is going to

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Speaker 8: be center around do you revive the manufacturing sector in

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Speaker 8: the United States?

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Speaker 1: And how do you do it best?

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Speaker 8: I mean, we certainly saw under President Biden a lot

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Speaker 8: of tax incentives and big, large programs. We're trying to

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Speaker 8: give money to companies to build up manufacturing in different

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Speaker 8: specific sectors, and we may see an approach that's quite

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Speaker 8: different in using tariffs to protect domestic industries and manufacturing

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Speaker 8: being one in the area.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's going to.

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Speaker 8: Be an ongoing discussion, but it really is more about

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Speaker 8: the deep underlying structure of the US economy and what

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Speaker 8: we want that deep underlying structure of the US economy

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Speaker 8: to look like clytie.

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Speaker 5: You know, you look at the long end of the

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Speaker 5: curve and just how much tenure thirty year rates have decoupled.

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Speaker 5: How much ConTroll does the Federal Reserve really have over

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Speaker 5: that longer end when you see investors equally concerned about

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Speaker 5: other issues like the fiscal term premium needed.

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Speaker 8: So the FED never hasn't never will have full control

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Speaker 8: over a ten year horizon. So that much shorter horizons

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Speaker 8: of treasury is like the two year you can really

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Speaker 8: have a conversation about the FED is very active in

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Speaker 8: what those treasure yields look like.

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Speaker 1: Out of the tenure.

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Speaker 8: There always are a host of concerns about or issues

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Speaker 8: in the US economy that are going to fit into

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Speaker 8: what do those treasury yields look like? And I think

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Speaker 8: we may there's just a lot of action right now.

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Speaker 8: Right there's a lot of information coming out of the

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Speaker 8: FED in terms of where they think they're going to

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Speaker 8: end up in terms of or potentially end up with

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Speaker 8: the rates. And this whole discussion about the terminal rate

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Speaker 8: or the neutral rate of interest, it's actually one where

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Speaker 8: while it comes out of FED official's mouths, it is

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Speaker 8: tied very much back to these structural features of the

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Speaker 8: economy and those are things like productivity or concerns about debt, sustainability, demographics,

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Speaker 8: other big issues, and those then can get I mean,

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Speaker 8: those are also issues that the tenure Treasury plays into.

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Speaker 1: So while as you said, the FED doesn't control the

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Speaker 1: tenure Treasury, and maybe we're seeing that.

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Speaker 8: Potentially some of those links weaken even more just because

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Speaker 8: the room is getting crowded in terms of issues that

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Speaker 8: people in the treasure markets need to absorb. But I

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Speaker 8: don't It's it's nothing unusual per se. It's what's maybe

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Speaker 8: more unusual is we're having there's big question marks out

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Speaker 8: there about the structure of the economy like we are

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Speaker 8: we a stronger economy or are we going to withstand

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Speaker 8: and really thrive with higher interest rates than.

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Speaker 1: We did for the pandemic.

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Speaker 8: I mean these and they're very much open questions right

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Speaker 8: now and very very central to where those longer dated

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Speaker 8: treasury markets will land.

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Speaker 3: I have a curveball question for you, Claudia as Good

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Speaker 3: an economist. Were you at the Beta Theta pie house

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Speaker 3: in March of nineteen ninety No, I'm kidding. What do

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Speaker 3: you think about the effect of GLP one drugs on

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Speaker 3: the US economy? We had a listener right in earlier

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Speaker 3: asking why you know the government doesn't just subsidize these

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Speaker 3: things and save US billions of dollars a year in

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Speaker 3: terms of healthcare. What do you think about the effect

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Speaker 3: of this drug? Have you given it any thought?

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Speaker 8: I think the way an economists like I said, would

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Speaker 8: probably tie this back in into this economic discussion would

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Speaker 8: be to think about the ability it gives individuals to

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Speaker 8: be more productive as workers. You know, and this lives

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Speaker 8: in the broad category of health and all all the

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Speaker 8: different kinds of pharmaceuticals and healthcare that we provide individuals

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Speaker 8: or they have access to that. Can you know, potentially

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Speaker 8: lengthen lives, make them more rich and fulfilling, make them

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Speaker 8: more able to stay off save disability roles, and be

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Speaker 8: in the workforce. So I think, you know, a healthier,

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Speaker 8: more productive workforce is one that is going to you know,

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Speaker 8: benefit the economy as a whole, do I think, But

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Speaker 8: that's me again being macroeconomist, a very big picture thinking

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Speaker 8: about the labor market as I often do, and not.

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Speaker 8: You know, there absolutely will be disruption under the hood

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Speaker 8: in terms of winners and losers in the economy from

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Speaker 8: you know, particular industries or particular institutions, and there will

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Speaker 8: be I mean, there's an answer to that question in

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Speaker 8: the beginning. I mean the massive budgetary impacts if say

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Speaker 8: Medicare or large government programs pick up these these kind

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Speaker 8: of drugs. Right, So there's all kinds of issues here.

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Speaker 8: But I think in terms of you know, a quality

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Speaker 8: of life, a healthier, healthier population, there is a lot

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Speaker 8: of both individual benefits and then their social benefits from

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Speaker 8: you know, if the healthier population as a whole.

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Speaker 5: Gladdy, we have to leave it there. Thank you so

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Speaker 5: very much for joining us today. Of course, it's a

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Speaker 5: wild bond market out there, and expect expectations changing quickly

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Speaker 5: around the course for next year as well.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cardplay and Android

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Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 7: All right, President elect Donald Trump is offering his complete

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Speaker 7: and total endorsement to Speaker Mike Johnson as he wards

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Speaker 7: off a potentially crippling leadership fight in the House that

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Speaker 7: threatens to slow his agendic Greg Valley are agf ands

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Speaker 7: San's chief US policy strategist joints US. Now, Greg, what's

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Speaker 7: the position of President Trump? President Elect Trump here as

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Speaker 7: he gets ready to take office January twentieth.

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Speaker 9: That's incredibly uncertain, and it depends on who you talk at,

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Speaker 9: what time of the day is you know, we're going

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Speaker 9: to raise the death ceiling and we're going to invade Toronto.

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Speaker 9: Are we going to have who are we going to

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Speaker 9: have as Speaker of the House. These stories change almost

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Speaker 9: by the hour, and I think we're all going to

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Speaker 9: have to get used to this uncertainty for the next

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Speaker 9: four years.

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Speaker 5: If you have uncertainty over the next four years. Where

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Speaker 5: would it be the most at this point because there

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Speaker 5: are range of issues that investors are keeping an eye on,

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Speaker 5: the country is keeping an eye on. We talk a

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Speaker 5: lot about tariffs here at Bloomberg News. Of course that

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Speaker 5: is one of the places that of course we don't

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Speaker 5: know the plan yet. But how do you think about

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Speaker 5: this in terms of where the president elect will spar

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Speaker 5: with Congress.

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Speaker 9: His promises have been so grandiose that I think he

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Speaker 9: has to sort of stand up for what he has said.

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Speaker 9: I think on inauguration day, on the twentieth, we'll be

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Speaker 9: talking about terrace. I think he has to move on

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Speaker 9: that against China, Canada, other countries and immigration.

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Speaker 6: He has to move on that.

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Speaker 9: A failure to do what he has promised would would

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Speaker 9: really set him up for mockery and it would embolden

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Speaker 9: people like Elon Musk.

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Speaker 3: I will chime in on something that I haven't brought

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Speaker 3: up yet. Okay, Donald Trump promised to get rid of

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Speaker 3: the state and local tax deduction cap that he put

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Speaker 3: on the.

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Speaker 7: Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts.

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Speaker 3: So, as we all know, before Trump came into office,

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Speaker 3: you could write off your state and local taxes from

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Speaker 3: your federal filing. He said he's going to get rid

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Speaker 3: of that cap that he put into place. What do

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Speaker 3: you think the likely of that is.

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Speaker 6: I'll bet you live in New Jersey.

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Speaker 9: Just a wild guess, but I do think I do

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Speaker 9: think it's going to be an issue that he'll have

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Speaker 9: problems with for the simple reason that we can't afford

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Speaker 9: all this stuff. If you look at what he has

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Speaker 9: promised in the last six months, a tax break for

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Speaker 9: waiters and waitresses, the state and local tax as you mentioned,

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Speaker 9: all sorts of things that I think will annoy people

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Speaker 9: in this very fiscally conservative house. You know, people say, well,

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Speaker 9: Trump and Johnson, House Speaker Johnson will get along. I'm

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Speaker 9: not so sure about that. Johnson can only afford to

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Speaker 9: lose one or two votes. And the Freedom Caucus may

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Speaker 9: have an issue if people in the Freedom Caucus who

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Speaker 9: live in Texas or Florida, they may have a big

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Speaker 9: issue with the salt tax.

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Speaker 7: So, you know, Greg, One of the other big issues

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Speaker 7: that'll probably be a day one type of issue for

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Speaker 7: the president, like Trump, will be migration and perhaps deportation

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Speaker 7: of certain illegal immigrants. How do you think that's really

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Speaker 7: going to play out in practicality?

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Speaker 6: I think your practicality.

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Speaker 9: Trump and Elon Musk and Ramaswami are going to have

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Speaker 9: to align.

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Speaker 6: It's going to be difficult with the Trump base.

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Speaker 9: I think Steve Bannon will lead that base and say

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Speaker 9: we don't want any immigration. But that's that's just not practical.

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Speaker 9: There are areas in our economy that need people from

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Speaker 9: India or wherever. And I think Trump is going to

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Speaker 9: have to moderate his tone on this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump has said he's in favor of the h

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Speaker 3: one B visus. He's already come out on Musk's side,

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Speaker 3: on Rama Swami's side on that issue, and he goes

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Speaker 3: up against Laura Loomi and maybe Margaret Taylor Green on that.

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Speaker 3: But it seems that it's a fairly easy easy position

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Speaker 3: to hold because those aren't people stealing American jobs.

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Speaker 9: Right.

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Speaker 3: The problem is you can't fill those jobs to begin with.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 9: And again, just to reiterate the problem is the uncertainty.

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Speaker 9: Is he going to stick to his guns on the

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Speaker 9: death ceiling? People I talked to on Capitol Hill last

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Speaker 9: week were incredulous that he would inject the issue with

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Speaker 9: the death ceiling a hammer the Republicans can use later

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Speaker 9: in the year, that he's going to inject it now,

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Speaker 9: it just complicates everything.

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Speaker 5: Speaking of complications, you know, when we're talking about that

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Speaker 5: immigration issue, you really did see a fracturing in certain

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00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 5: parts of the MAGA Party, if you will, or for

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Speaker 5: the right part of the Republican Party, where you did

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Speaker 5: see differences an opinion, very very vocal differences. Is it

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Speaker 5: too early to ask how this would play out in

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Speaker 5: the midterms.

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Speaker 9: No, that's a really good question. No, it's not too early.

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Speaker 9: I think it's going to confuse people so much that

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Speaker 9: it's going to get Democrats enthusiastic by spring that they

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Speaker 9: have a chance to regain control of the House and Senate.

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Speaker 7: Well, taking that a step further, Greg, if I'm a

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Speaker 7: part of the I don't know the Washington bureaucracy, I'm

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Speaker 7: going to be there five years now, ten years from now,

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Speaker 7: twenty years from now. In my department, Do I treat

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Speaker 7: this administration almost as a lane duck administration?

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Speaker 6: Not? Probably, not yet.

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Speaker 9: I mean, people who under estimate Trump do so at

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Speaker 9: their own peril. And I think Trump will have some successes,

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Speaker 9: but he can't keep changing his line every week or so.

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Speaker 9: That's going to exasperate people and it's going to cost

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Speaker 9: him the most important thing a politician has, and that's

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Speaker 9: political capital. And I think Trump's political capital just in

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Speaker 9: the last ten to fifteen days has taken a hit.

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Speaker 5: Greg. We thank you so much for your time. That

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Speaker 5: is Greg Valuer of AGF Investments. He's the chief US

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Speaker 5: policy strategist there. You might have missed it. This is

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Speaker 5: another big question. But late Friday night you had Janet

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Speaker 5: Yellen sending a letter to congressional leaders saying when the

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Speaker 5: new debt limit is going to come to the surface,

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Speaker 5: and the window is right around drum roll inauguration. So

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Speaker 5: that's another thing to watch out for in the coming weeks,

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Speaker 5: as well as those debt disputes coming back to the surface.

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Speaker 3: I'm surprised you don't have a drum roll button. Yes, Tom,

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00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 3: not pushed to get those kind of things.

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Speaker 7: You're right, that's a great point.

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Speaker 6: I'll put that up.

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Speaker 7: I'll put a ticket in for that.

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