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Speaker 1: The volume. The Colin Coward Podcast, presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: Get started now, sign up promo code Colin so they

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Speaker 1: know we and I sent you. The Colin Coward Podcast,

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Speaker 1: presented by The Fan Duel Sports Book. Hi, everybody, welcome in.

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman's gonna have some March Madness intel you should

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Speaker 1: like and some NFL intel Regarding Russell Wilson, he's a

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Speaker 1: sharp He'll join us in ten minutes. But first, fake questions,

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Speaker 1: real answers, stuff I want to talk about but don't

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Speaker 1: want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: please give us more on why you think the Colts

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Speaker 1: butchered the handling of Carson Wentz. I like Chris Ballard,

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Speaker 1: I like Frank Reich, but as an NFL general manager

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Speaker 1: told me about a year ago. We're all flippin' burgers.

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Speaker 1: Our owners run the show. Jim Ersey is a vaulatile

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Speaker 1: personality and impulsive, and because he's been promising things and

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Speaker 1: we're going to get another Super Bowl and the whole

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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck retirement has sort of put the franchise on

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Speaker 1: edge and a little bit in the hole. They went

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Speaker 1: big on the Carson Wentz contract and pursuit and they

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Speaker 1: landed him, and they're upset because he lost to the Jaguars, which,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Josh Allen and the Bills lost to

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. If Derek Carr doesn't make the best throw

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Speaker 1: of his career to Hunter Renfro, Colts make the playoffs. Instead,

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Speaker 1: they're going to move off a quarterback with a three

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Speaker 1: and a half to four to one touchdown to interception

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Speaker 1: ratio in a bad quarterback class, in a quarterback dependent league.

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Speaker 1: It's a bad move what you do. Now, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of stories coming out about Carson Wentz. He's crazy's

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Speaker 1: bad locker room guy. That's what you do when the

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Speaker 1: owner's freaking out to protect the brand. Really, you think

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Speaker 1: Frank Reich would have brought Carson Wentz in if he

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Speaker 1: was a horrible locker room guy with a massive ego

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Speaker 1: that nobody could stand. No, now they have to protect

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Speaker 1: the Colts brand, so you're seeing all sorts of leagues

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Speaker 1: to make Carson Wentz look like a schmuck. Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: is not Tom Brady pre snap. He doesn't have Stafford's arm.

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Speaker 1: He can't move like Kyler Murray. But he's a six five,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty eight pound quarterback that can move

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Speaker 1: with a big arm, who had twenty seventy seven picks

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Speaker 1: in a bad quarterback room. He's never had a number

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Speaker 1: one receiver in this league. He now inherits the number

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Speaker 1: one receiver with Washington Terry McLaurin. He's really good. But

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Speaker 1: all this is now is dump on Carson Wentz. He's

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Speaker 1: a whacko, he's zany, he doesn't relate to people, he's toxic.

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Speaker 1: Then why did you go pursue him a year ago

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Speaker 1: when your head coach had a close relationship with him.

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Speaker 1: This is just trying to bail water on the brand

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Speaker 1: because Jim Ersey is volatile. Chris Bowler's not a rash

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Speaker 1: decision maker. This isn't his call. Frank Reich next year

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Speaker 1: goes into a year on the hot seat. You think

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Speaker 1: he wants to this morning, have no quarterback. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: I know you're from Seattle. You've been very objective about

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks, who we know you love. Are the Seahawks screwed? Now? Well,

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Speaker 1: thanks for the question. I try to be objective. The

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Speaker 1: answers vary. According to one gambling site, the team being

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Speaker 1: bet the most when the NFC isn't the Rams, it's

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Speaker 1: the forty Niners. Twenty nine and a half percent of

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Speaker 1: the money being bet on the NFC champs is being

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Speaker 1: bet on the forty nine Ers. That's why trading Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson borders on idiotic. Okay, now you have to compete

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Speaker 1: with the two best young offensive minds in football, Sean

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Speaker 1: McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan's even seven and four against McVeigh,

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Speaker 1: and now he finally gets a real athlete at quarterback

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Speaker 1: in Trey Lance. Listen, he made a Harvard tight end

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Speaker 1: of Pro Bowl at fullback for the Niners and a

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Speaker 1: six round running back, Elijah Mitchell a star. He made

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo get to a Super Bowl. Trey Lance is

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Speaker 1: going to work Seattle in the toughest vision in an

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Speaker 1: increasingly quarterback dependent league has no quarterback today. Now Pete

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Speaker 1: Carroll's history. When Lane Kiffin took over USC, I was

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Speaker 1: told this by somebody in the program. Lane felt he

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Speaker 1: had to clean the program out. There were eight nine

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Speaker 1: really bad guys, toxic guys in the locker room. Pete

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Speaker 1: didn't care. Pete was about recruiting guys who could run,

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Speaker 1: recruiting guys who were ballers. Let somebody else worry about

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Speaker 1: the chemistry. So I think they'll go aggressively, aggressively after

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. But don't forget the Seahawks owner Jody Allen

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Speaker 1: is not David Tepper, the owner for Carolina. Okay, she

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Speaker 1: doesn't even long term know if she wants the team.

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Speaker 1: She's not a sports fan. Tepper is now the first

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Speaker 1: or second richest owner in the sport in Carolina. He's

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Speaker 1: in place, He's got his sights on Deshaun Watson, and

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Speaker 1: my take is they'll land him the Hawks. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: you've said Arizona should pay Kyler Murray, but it sounds

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Speaker 1: like you don't really love him. What's your take, Well,

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Speaker 1: you're very perceptive that's a great question. I don't love

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers or Kyler Murray. I think they're both high

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Speaker 1: maintenance and needy, not into those sort of personality types,

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Speaker 1: but they are unique talents. I would sign both. The

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Speaker 1: truth about Kyler Murray, he's too small to play quarterback.

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Speaker 1: A source that faced him on the defensive line told

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Speaker 1: me two years ago he'll go back to baseball. He

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Speaker 1: does not like being hit. Certain roles require a certain

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Speaker 1: body type for the part. You see this in TVs

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Speaker 1: and movie. There's an author named Lee Child. He created

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Speaker 1: a character named Jack Reacher, made a ton of books

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Speaker 1: about him. The character was described as six foot five

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Speaker 1: and two fifty. About ten years ago, they made a

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Speaker 1: Jack Reacher movie with Tom Cruise. Look it up, he's

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Speaker 1: five seven. Fans in the critics said it should have been,

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Speaker 1: you know, like Schwarzenegger or a big, daunting figure. Even

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Speaker 1: Lee Child himself admitted cruz was wrong for the part,

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Speaker 1: and at the size of the actor mattered. Yes, Amazon

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Speaker 1: is now rebooting the series and they chose an actor

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Speaker 1: who's six four two thirty five. Yes, Tom Cruise could

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Speaker 1: play the part, but it wasn't ideal and critics hated it. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray can play quarterback, but the ideal size is

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Speaker 1: six three sixty three and a half two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty five pounds, a little pudding, a little thick with

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Speaker 1: some mobility. Manning a big man, big man, a big man,

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Speaker 1: Elway a big man, Troy Aikman, a big man, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady a big man, Rothlessburger a big man, Terry Bradshaw

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Speaker 1: a big man. Dan Fout's a big man. Joe Montana

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Speaker 1: bigger than you think. Russell Wilson and Kayler Murray are

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Speaker 1: out standing. It's not ideal. That's why he's been hurt

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Speaker 1: twice in three years. And I also think his personality

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Speaker 1: is not ideal. But like Tom Cruise, he can play

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Speaker 1: the part, but it's not perfect. The drama and the size,

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Speaker 1: it's not perfect. That's why I wouldn't give him Mahome's money.

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Speaker 1: Dear Colin, what do you think of Russell Westbrook complaining

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Speaker 1: about people calling him Westbreak? Well, it's funny. Whenever young

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Speaker 1: broadcasting people, young men and women, ask me, oh I

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Speaker 1: want to work at Fox Sports or ESPN, I always

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Speaker 1: tell them, if they're twenty four twenty five, go beat

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Speaker 1: the bushes, go work in Midland, Texas, go work weekends

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Speaker 1: in Toledo, make a lot of mistakes. Find a style

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Speaker 1: before you go to the bigger stage. Get your style down.

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Speaker 1: Make some mistakes. I didn't find my style till I

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Speaker 1: was thirty two or thirty three. I was just bits

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Speaker 1: and pieces of other broadcasters. Russell Westbrook wants to get

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Speaker 1: the big money and be on the big stage with

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Speaker 1: the Lakers. But it's the biggest brand easily in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: It's the Yankees of baseball. And not only are the

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Speaker 1: Lakers the most watched franchise historically, they're the most discussed franchise.

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Speaker 1: You'll get Laker topics on ESPN and Fox Sports in

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Speaker 1: the off season. People don't talk NBA off season, they

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Speaker 1: talk Lakers off season. It's like Kanye West. His music

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Speaker 1: is a topic. Kanye West is a topic. So when

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Speaker 1: Westbrook was struggling in Houston or Oklahoma City, that's one thing.

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Speaker 1: When you struggle with the Lakers, you get an avalanche

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Speaker 1: of criticism. And Russell Westbrook wants the money, wants the shoes,

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Speaker 1: wants the adjec la. Bro you pitch for the Yankees,

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Speaker 1: you coach the Ohio State Buckeyes, you play for the Lakers,

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Speaker 1: we talk about every turnover and all these years of

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Speaker 1: agitating the press, all these years of missing shots and

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Speaker 1: being a turnover machine. Now that you're out of your prime,

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Speaker 1: it's come back to haunt you because we all see

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Speaker 1: it and discuss it all week. Dear Colin, what's a

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Speaker 1: word that has caught your attention lately? Well, that is

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Speaker 1: a very interesting and perceptive question. It's rotational player. I

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Speaker 1: hear that all the time in the NBA. Now you

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Speaker 1: used to be called a bench player. If it's stars,

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Speaker 1: especially aging stars like Carmelo Anthony, don't want to be

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Speaker 1: called bench players, so now they call them rotational players.

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Speaker 1: It's like the word crispy. You ever noticed that they

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Speaker 1: don't say fried chicken sandwich anymore. M delicious, crispy chicken nuggets, delicious,

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Speaker 1: crisp chicken sandwich. Words matter. People don't want to hear

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Speaker 1: fried in twenty twenty two, unless you're in California. You

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Speaker 1: get up and waken, bake in the morning. But the NBA,

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Speaker 1: which has become, as you know, very much a player

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Speaker 1: league forever, but increasingly you're seeing aging stars being told

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Speaker 1: they're important rotational players. Carmelo Anthony, Ladies and Gentlemen comes

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Speaker 1: off the bench. He is a bench player, nothing more,

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Speaker 1: nothing less. Don't be fooled, and it's a fried chicken sandwich,

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Speaker 1: my college basketball. I've watched Kentucky play four times, okay

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Speaker 1: four times, really really good offensively. There're Gonzaga offensively, but

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Speaker 1: more force. They are more physical, So offense wins a

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Speaker 1: lot in this tournament. There are teams we see these

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Speaker 1: that just over the course. You have to win this tournament.

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Speaker 1: You need six games. You can't go dry for a game.

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Speaker 1: You've got to have scores. That's why Gonzaga has so

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Speaker 1: much damn success. They don't play real defense, they're never physical.

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Speaker 1: They're just really slick offensively. They score ninety five a game.

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Speaker 1: They get to the tournament that goes down to eighty five.

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Speaker 1: That's why Gonzaga keeps winning. It's not because they're the

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Speaker 1: best athletes or NBA guys. They score. They've got a system.

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Speaker 1: So this is a real offense for Kentucky. I know

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Speaker 1: they're not a dark horse. They're plus eight hundred, but

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Speaker 1: that's my Calipari wins a second title is my hot

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Speaker 1: take going into March madness. What say you? It's look,

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Speaker 1: it's really an interesting take. And you think about the

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Speaker 1: fact that Kylipari has only won once all these teams

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Speaker 1: over the years, whether it was you know, U mass

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Speaker 1: Or with Marcus Camby or Meantis with Derek Rose, and

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Speaker 1: now Kentucky with the years and years of all Americans

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Speaker 1: and sort of the one and done talent he has had.

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Speaker 1: The fact he's only got one is actually astonishing and

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Speaker 1: it's not a bad choice. Like not just because at

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Speaker 1: eight to one, look like no professional better is going

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Speaker 1: to say to you, yeah, take the eight to one

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Speaker 1: number because they like odds that are longer. That's just

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Speaker 1: how they like to play the game. But what's really

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Speaker 1: interesting about Kentucky is they're playing in the best conference

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Speaker 1: the SEC by far. That is where you're getting battle tested,

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Speaker 1: right like Gonzaga is not getting battle tested. Gonzaga is

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Speaker 1: at about three and a half to one right now.

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Speaker 1: Auburn and Alabama this year both really good. Alabama Tennessee Auburn, like,

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Speaker 1: those are four teams that can beat anybody, as they

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Speaker 1: have proven all year long. Obviously Arizona it is about

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Speaker 1: six to one, right like the Pac twelve. That's not

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Speaker 1: scaring anybody. So then you got Kentucky and then after that,

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Speaker 1: like it gets really interesting because Duke no one's really

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Speaker 1: buying Duke Baylor has been injured all year, Kansas has

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Speaker 1: had issues. Auburn, while Great has then been inconsistent. You

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Speaker 1: start to get down into that mid like lower tier.

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Speaker 1: I do think Purdue is a really interesting team, but

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Speaker 1: it's interesting we fall in love with Big ten teams

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Speaker 1: because Big ten basketball ratings get pretty damn good ratings.

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Speaker 1: They really do. Michigan State games, Indiana games, Ohio State games.

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Speaker 1: Go look at the history. How many Big ten teams

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Speaker 1: get to the Final four. I mean even Izzo total

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Speaker 1: class program. I think we overvalue. Here's why we overvalue

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Speaker 1: Big ten teams. We watch them more. Secondly, they've got

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Speaker 1: so many eight home court environments in that part of

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Speaker 1: the country. They like college basketball arguably more than the NBA.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these arenas are stacked and jammed. So the

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Speaker 1: environment when you're watching Michigan, Michigan State, purdueing Indiana is

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Speaker 1: out of this world good and it gets us kind

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Speaker 1: of wow. This feels big Big ten teams. I always

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Speaker 1: feel like they're a little overvalued. When I was at ESPN,

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Speaker 1: I walked into you can remember this. There are these

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Speaker 1: multi purpose conference rooms, right, and when the tournament comes around,

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Speaker 1: they set them up like war rooms and there's huge

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Speaker 1: screens everywhere and food being ordered and everyone is just

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Speaker 1: around watching the games, kind of working, but mostly watching

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Speaker 1: the games. And I went down there. It was my

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Speaker 1: first year when I had become I had been editor

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Speaker 1: in chief of the magazine and then took over ESPN

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Speaker 1: dot Com, and you know the people like when I

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Speaker 1: took over, there was a divide, right, like ESPN dot

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Speaker 1: Com that was hardcore, that was daily, that was hundreds

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Speaker 1: of stories a day, thousands of stories a year, and

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Speaker 1: like the magazine, we were Dilotan's right, we're coming out

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Speaker 1: every other week where I got a very precious product.

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Speaker 1: All this kind of stuff. I sat down and I

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Speaker 1: said to the college basketball editor for ESPN dot Com

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Speaker 1: at the time, who I had just started working with,

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Speaker 1: I'm like Michigan State Izzo overrated, Like never advanced the

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Speaker 1: way you think they would, always number one, number two,

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Speaker 1: never really get to the spot, always underperform. And everyone

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Speaker 1: looked at me as if I was the devil who

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Speaker 1: was coming from someplace that didn't know anything about sports,

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Speaker 1: moving into where they really talk about sports, and it

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Speaker 1: turns out I might be right and you agree with me.

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Speaker 1: That makes me feel better all the easiest. Later I

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Speaker 1: feel better. Well, the sec our immediate image is SEC football,

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Speaker 1: but they have over the last ten years had more

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Speaker 1: success in the tournament. And that's without Kentucky being as

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Speaker 1: good as we think. The last great college basketball team

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Speaker 1: was Florida Rudely Donovan. That was the last great college

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Speaker 1: basketball team. How about the ruin Arkansas had last year?

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Speaker 1: And Arkansas is another one? Like you're going to be

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Speaker 1: afraid of Arkansas, Like it's just going to be a

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Speaker 1: team that you're going to have to be looking out for.

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Speaker 1: And you're totally right about college basketball being a professional

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Speaker 1: betters game. When I did the Odds, which featured Alan

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Speaker 1: Boston from Vegas, who you know, which, I tracked these

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Speaker 1: guys who've bet on sports for a living. That entire

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Speaker 1: book was about college basketball and about the interplay between

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Speaker 1: bookmakers and gamblers and how that those moments, the time

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Speaker 1: when bookmakers are setting a line and betters are betting

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Speaker 1: into that line, create a cataclysmic event that reverberates through

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Speaker 1: the entire sports betting world because it is billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars based on these small decisions these guys are making,

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Speaker 1: and it's the better is like Allan Boston, who at

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Speaker 1: the time was one of the biggest and best college

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Speaker 1: basketball betters in the world, has an impact in a

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Speaker 1: way that is much more far reaching in terms of

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Speaker 1: the betting community than the NFL because the NFL is

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Speaker 1: just harder to win it. Yeah, it's you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons I like Kentucky is I do think

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Speaker 1: like like Baylor played real defense last year, but they

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Speaker 1: had some NBA players as well. And what made Baylor

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Speaker 1: special is they could muscle Gonzaga late, but they had

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Speaker 1: scores on the wing. You know, I've heard for years,

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Speaker 1: you can defend your way through the tournament. It's six games.

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Speaker 1: You've got to drop buckets. You're gonna face NBA players

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Speaker 1: at some point in this tournament. You've got to score baskets.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's stopping at the college level. A top ten pick

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Speaker 1: in the NBA. It's why Gonzaga to me, that runs

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Speaker 1: a highly highly efficient offensive system. It's not they have

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Speaker 1: the best athletes, they really really know what they're doing offensively.

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Speaker 1: And when I look at Gonzagga this year, I've watched

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Speaker 1: them about ten times because Mark Fuse a buddy, I

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Speaker 1: still look at this team that can get pushed around.

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Speaker 1: I still I think they're just offensively. Watson can get

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Speaker 1: your bucket on the wing. They've got the homegroum, the

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Speaker 1: kid from Minnesota who weighs about a buck fifty. I

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Speaker 1: think you can push them around. So I think I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna sell a little stock. Even though they're the odds

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Speaker 1: on favorite this year, I think there's I think Baylor

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Speaker 1: gave you and you cla to a degree, gave you

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a roadmap. Get physical, get in

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Speaker 1: their face, contest every shot, and Gonzagga gets a little uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: It's like you drop in Mark Fuse a buddy like

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Speaker 1: on the show. Yet I know I did. I'm listening.

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Speaker 1: I'm listening. I'm listening to the show. You're like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Sierra came up to me at a at a super

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Speaker 1: at a dinner, at any at a restaurant. What was

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Speaker 1: this at dinner? I'm like, think where was he at?

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Speaker 1: Because I saw him the Wednesday of Super Bowl week

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Speaker 1: at his party and like you don't even like to

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Speaker 1: go out that much, Like, no, you don't like the

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Speaker 1: Hollywood scenes. So where were you at? Where are you?

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Speaker 1: Tell me? So I went to my wife and a friend.

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Speaker 1: It was a wheels up party, and I fly him

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Speaker 1: three or four times a year. I'm not really a

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Speaker 1: private jet guy. I flight Delta. I like veteran pilots

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Speaker 1: with gray hair, tight pants, shirts that are buttoned up

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Speaker 1: and pressed. I don't want to go too much private,

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Speaker 1: preferably military expertise. And they had thrown they had flown

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Speaker 1: thirty five combat missions for Vietnam. Yeah, so I'm a

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Speaker 1: Delta guy. But I go to the wheels up thing

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Speaker 1: because I have friends inside the company, and I got

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Speaker 1: a couple of times a year we take our dogs

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Speaker 1: to Utah. Nobody cares about this. So I go to

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Speaker 1: the party and it's a bunch of stars. First of all,

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Speaker 1: Alex Smith, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Montana. Two things became abundantly clear.

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Speaker 1: I'm a really big deal. The second thing. So Russell

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Speaker 1: comes in and I see Mark Rogers's agent and Russell,

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Speaker 1: and Russell waves, but he's got just getting mobbed. And

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Speaker 1: as I go over to say hi to him, Sierra

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Speaker 1: moves in front and says, oh God, we love you.

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Speaker 1: I love you. I didn't hear a thing after that.

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Speaker 1: It didn't matter that she said the show she's the

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Speaker 1: best looking human I've ever seen. I'm not joking. I

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Speaker 1: just I was like, Okay, well I'm gonna go, and

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Speaker 1: I have a piece of chicken palm fall to sleep

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Speaker 1: and dream about what could have been with Sira and yeah.

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Speaker 1: So my takeaway is that was my Cira party. So

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Speaker 1: I don't do this much, but I do think it's

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Speaker 1: important that I sound like a big deal the two

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Speaker 1: times a year I see famous people. The currency you

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Speaker 1: can get from one or two moments because people extrapolate

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Speaker 1: and they assume it's Colin cowhern He's famous, he's you know,

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Speaker 1: as Russilo pointed out in the podcast, like people are

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Speaker 1: buying Cowherd again, like he's done now, you know, he's

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Speaker 1: like he's a media mogul all of a sudden, but

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Speaker 1: they're back in his stock. Is right, And so even

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Speaker 1: if like you're spending most nights like me, with your

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Speaker 1: notifications turned off at nine pm and you're watching Gilded

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Speaker 1: Age on HBO Max because you love Christine Branski people

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Speaker 1: think it's a mystery, because yeah, I watch man Hunt

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Speaker 1: on Acorn DONE, my favorite channel, Acorn TV. If I

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Speaker 1: hadn't already watched man Hunt, i'd probably be watching it.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's so good. Yeah, so good. So

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Speaker 1: I get it. I totally get it. Everyone like can

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Speaker 1: zoomed every once in a while, like I'll pop in like, well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, I was at this event, and like people

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Speaker 1: are like, he's a he's at everything right, And I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going anywhere. But I could say it once

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Speaker 1: or twice, and you know it carries. I get it.

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Speaker 1: By the way, my wife never walks inone I'm doing

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Speaker 1: a podcast, but since she looks like your wife, Chad,

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Speaker 1: my beautiful, redheaded wife just walked in. What can I

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Speaker 1: help you with? Honey? She wanted to know if I

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Speaker 1: need anything? Is that the best? She is? Lovely? No

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Speaker 1: princess who good things? She didn't walk just whom. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's pivot to this. You and I are kind of

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Speaker 1: forced to be contextualizers. Like you and I are punished

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Speaker 1: if we're overly emotional. We're rewarded if we take a

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Speaker 1: step back on stuff. So when Russell Wilson leaves Seattle.

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Speaker 1: The initial burst from fans' is duds washed bad year.

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Speaker 1: There's a trend in the NFL where really good quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: was several years left, go to an offensive coach and

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Speaker 1: they pop like Matt Stafford and Tom Brady with arians.

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Speaker 1: If you look at Seattle's online b list, running backs

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Speaker 1: seven straight bad drafts week at tight end defense now

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Speaker 1: has regressed bottom five in the league. To me, Russell's

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Speaker 1: been the life preserver for the organization for about six years.

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Speaker 1: He wasn't in the first five. I look at now

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Speaker 1: that Denver lineup of Judy Patrick, Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams

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Speaker 1: at running back. I look at it and I think,

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Speaker 1: I know it's a tough division, but Matt Stafford went

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Speaker 1: to the toughest division. It doesn't matter. Great people want weapons.

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00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: They don't worry about obstacles. I use this the other day,

422
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos looked at Netflix and said, I want in.

423
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: Just get me great directors and writers. Great people are

424
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: not afraid of competition. When Brady went to that division,

425
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 1: he had Sean Payton, Drew Brees and the Falcons were

426
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: five years removed for a Super Bowl. He didn't care.

427
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 1: He wanted weapons right. He went to a weaker division

428
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: at the time, so Stafford same thing, went to a

429
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: much stronger division. I'm not going to get too caught

430
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: up worrying about the Raiders and the Chargers. I think

431
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: his numbers are gonna pop. I really do. He finally

432
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: gets a progressive offensive coach. I don't know, you know,

433
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: you start looking at some of these things here in

434
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and the Broncos. Broncos plus twelve hundred, I

435
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: would bet fourteen to one fan duel I saw this week.

436
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the Denver Broncos. I'm betting on MVP odds.

437
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: I like mvpods. I feel like I agree with everything

438
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 1: you're saying about the Broncos, and I agree with everything

439
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: you're saying about Russell Wilson. I'll put this in a

440
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: different kind of context. If you want to bet, if

441
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: you want to bet futures right now, you want to

442
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 1: lock your money up for it's the middle of March.

443
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 1: You want to lock your money up for eleven months.

444
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 1: Let's say you want to put a thousand dollars down

445
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: on the Bronchos to win twelve thousand dollars at twelve

446
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: to one. That's not the risk you want to take. Like,

447
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: give yourself a little bit more of an opportunity, find

448
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 1: yourself a little bit more value you can find. If

449
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: you want to bet on the Broncos at twelve to one,

450
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 1: you're better off waiting until the fall. Let the Bronchos,

451
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: I don't know what their schedule is. We haven't seen

452
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: the schedule yet. Let the Broncos lose two of their

453
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: first four games. If they're on the road at Kansas

454
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: City and at the Chargers, and all of a sudden

455
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: they're two and two, and the Chargers might be three

456
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: and one, the Chiefs might be four and oh, and

457
00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 1: then you're getting much better odds on the Bronchos to

458
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, or bet the Bronchos to cover

459
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: in certain situations, and then you continue to roll that over.

460
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: You're getting better odds than you would on the Bronchos.

461
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: Right now, the value is cooked out. To use the

462
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: pun in the sort of term of art with Russ

463
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: at twelve to one, because everyone's been betting into it

464
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: for the past forty eight hours. So you really want

465
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: to look at the teams that are twenty to one

466
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: or worse, and there are a lot of really interesting

467
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: teams that you could bet on at those numbers. That's interesting.

468
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: That is a really interesting take. I'll throw another one

469
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: at you, Okay. Jim Or says impulsive Chris Ballard is

470
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 1: not rash and does not want to get rid of

471
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. Frank Reich knows him well, he had him

472
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: for years, brings him in, and now suddenly all the

473
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 1: stories leak Wentz is impossible. Wentz has an ego. Wentz

474
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: is difficult. This is Jim Or say, making Carson Wentz

475
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: look bad. Lots of leaks from the organization, all the

476
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: cult writers, Wentz is bad. Wentz's trouble. Wentz doesn't work

477
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: interesting four to one touchdown to interception ratio and a

478
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: ninety three passer rating is better than the current college

479
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: market or the current NFL market because he played Daroppolo

480
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: last year and was clearly the better quarterback when they

481
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: faced off. He was a better player. So I think

482
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: Wentz is getting so much negative publicity it won't do anythings,

483
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: perhaps to the market. Perhaps to the market. So can

484
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: I argue, Okay, in the Russell Wilson a Denver case,

485
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: You're right because we all know it's good Wentz bet

486
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: earlier because nobody buys him, and all these negative articles.

487
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: He's zany, he's a god squatter, he didn't vax, he's

488
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 1: bet Watch after camp and the Washington articles come out.

489
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: Dude six five, two forty five. Ron River's like, you

490
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: can win a lot of games with that guy. Then

491
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: the money changes that Wentz is better than the market

492
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: believes today. Russell Wilson is probably being over purchased. Does

493
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: that make any sense? No, it's a terrible take, terrible,

494
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: terrible take. You know why, Well, here's why. It's not

495
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 1: because of the value in the Washington Commanders. It's because

496
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: I would buy it that stories were being leaked if

497
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 1: it was the first time it happened and it was

498
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: a bad breakup after five years. But we got the

499
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: same stories on Carson Wentz in Philadelphia. He wasn't a leader,

500
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 1: didn't connect with players, was pouty when Nick Foles was

501
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: making the Super Bowl run and he was injured. This

502
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: is now the second time where he has left a team,

503
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: and there have been consistent stories about his lack of leadership,

504
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: his lack of ability to connect with his teammates. So

505
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: I think Ron River is a great coach. But everyone

506
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: and I was not a buyer on this. Everyone went

507
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: into last year thinking he's back with the coach that

508
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: you know he was so good in twenty seventeen. That

509
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 1: doesn't mean you can overcome making really bad decisions in

510
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: pressure situations. And you can point to the stats that

511
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: he had. Sometimes the stats are superficial, right, Jeff George

512
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: is one of the greatest throwers of all time, doesn't

513
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: mean he actually won or anything. Carson Wentz has unbelievable

514
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: stats from last year, but he's not a guy you

515
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: want the ball in his hands at the end of

516
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: a game when there's pressure situations, and they're always going

517
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: to find themselves in pressure situations, and that is not

518
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: a team that is just worth putting your money on.

519
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: At sixty to one, and by the way, the odds

520
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: for them basically stayed at sixty to one when they

521
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: signed Carson Wentz. One book put him at seventy five

522
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: to one. They dropped when Carson Wentz was signed. So oh,

523
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 1: bad idea, come on, bad take. Sierra would hate that take. Horrible.

524
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: Rossilo is going to come back kind of the podcast.

525
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: He's like, after that take, people are selling camera. He

526
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: holds me in line. Okay, I gotta go have surgery today.

527
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into specific so if I'm

528
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: not here forever, it was great working with you. Can

529
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: I what do I get? Am? I? Am? I in

530
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: the wheel in anyway? What can I have your wheels

531
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: up membership for a year. Yeah, we'll think about it.

532
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 1: I might want something, but Roussillo sucked up to me

533
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. He gets to ear two on so

534
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: so three year membership. All right, One more thing before

535
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: I go, because I got to get all swabbed up here.

536
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: I think Aidan Hutchison Michigan Wolverine edge rusher is going

537
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: to go number one. Evan Neil I had an NFL

538
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: exact tell me bad change of direction? He can block

539
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: this with his size. I wouldn't take him one. There's

540
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 1: other really good tackles in this draft. There's not another

541
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: really great pass rusher, and those are needs. He is

542
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: right now minus two eighty A. Explain what that means

543
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,240
Speaker 1: to the audience. And I think the people I'm talking

544
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: to think he is the best college football player at

545
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: a position of need in the league. So we're talking

546
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: about Aidan Hutchinson at minus two yr so Ya to

547
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: go number one overall. What that basically means is the

548
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 1: odds are so overwhelming on Aiden Hutchinson that it costs

549
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: you double your money to make half the money if

550
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: you bet. You know, it's hard to do the math

551
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: in my head right now on minus two eighty, but

552
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 1: it's essentially it's one two three odds. Bet ten dollars,

553
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 1: win three dollars. That is not positive expected value, especially

554
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: with Aidan Hutchinson, who a week ago before Cam Robinson

555
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: from the Jaguars was given the franchise tag, which basically

556
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: said the Jags are out of the market for drafting

557
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: a tackle. At number one overall, Aidan Hutchinson was plus

558
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 1: six to fifty, which meant if you bet ten dollars,

559
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: you make sixty dollars and you make sixty five dollars.

560
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: So really, you don't want to bet this because you've

561
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 1: lost the best value in the market. You find other

562
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: things to bet, And I can promise you, as you

563
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 1: and I talk over the next six weeks, we are

564
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: going to come up with a lot better things to

565
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 1: bet in the NFL draft than Aidan Hutchinson to go

566
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: number one. Like what how many quarterbacks will be taken

567
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 1: in the first round. What will be the over under

568
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 1: draft position for someone like Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett.

569
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: How many wide receivers will go in the first round,

570
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: how many offensive linemen, how many defensive linemen? Things like

571
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 1: that are where we're going to stay like that value

572
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 1: in the market. Super Bowl winning GM in the last

573
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: five years told me Kenny Pickett has a late third

574
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 1: ground third round grade for their team. They don't need

575
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Yeah, they don't like him. Look like, there's

576
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 1: nobody who is overwhelmingly great. There is no Trevor Lawrence.

577
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 1: There's not even a mac Jones in this draft, right,

578
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: And so it's astonishing to meet the conversation around quarterbacks

579
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: and that you could really like Davis Mills. I saw

580
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: a story I forgot who wrote this. Think about it.

581
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 1: If Davis Mills, who had a really good rookie year

582
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: with the Houston Texas, and I apologize, someone wrote this

583
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: and it was great. I can't remember who really good

584
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: rookie year with the Texas. If he had stayed at

585
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 1: Stanford one more year, he might be the top overall pick. Right,

586
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 1: And so this is just not a quarterback draft. Chad Melman,

587
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: chief content Officer, Action Network, College basketball, NFL stuff. I'm

588
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 1: gonna have surgery. It's not major, it's not a team

589
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 1: of people. It's a local anesthetic. My wife says, I'm

590
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: being very dramatic. Gets no big deal. But I'll bleed

591
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 1: within the next hour. So that's a big deal to me.

592
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: Every day, Colin, you bring joy to so many people.

593
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: I only want this, even though it's only local, even

594
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 1: though you're not going completely under. And when you come home,

595
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: your beautiful bride is going to take care of you.

596
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: She's gonna make sure you get healthy. She's gonna make

597
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: sure you're back on the air as soon as possible.

598
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 1: That's all we want from you. Yeah. And if if

599
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: that comment didn't get me more in the will, then

600
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: at least we're stillo. You gotta reimagine. Yeah, you're right.

601
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: I want as you're going under, think about think about

602
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: what can I leave Milman. That should be the last

603
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: thing you think about. This is going to be a

604
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: terrible last discussion if I do die, a terrible last discussion.

605
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: What did you say to Colin? Could I get a

606
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: better will write up? That was the last thing I

607
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: said to him. It might be terrible for you, but

608
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have such a good story. Can you believe

609
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: the guy died and the last conversation I had with

610
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 1: him was what are you going to give me? There's

611
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: been a lot of marriages that have ended that way.

612
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: I think. All right, buddy, good seeing you. All right,

613
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 1: Good luck in your surgery, whatever the mystery is. Yes,

614
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 1: all you later the Volume. With sports betting taking off,

615
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: its important to find the experts you can trust to

616
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: help you make some money right. Check out the Favorite

617
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: Sports Betting Podcast powered by FanDuel, only on the Volume

618
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. My buddy Chad Milman pro better Simon Hunter

619
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,879
Speaker 1: from the Action Network twice a week, here to help

620
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: you become a smarter football better. Every Tuesday and Thursday,

621
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: Chat and Simon break down the strategies of professional sports betters,

622
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: the ones they used to find the right games and

623
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: the right time to bet. Download the Favorite Sports Betting

624
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: Podcast only in the Volume Podcast Network