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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from

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Speaker 1: my Tommy John Holmes Studio.

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Speaker 2: I'm joined as always.

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Speaker 1: By my co host, my companion, my Campadre, and my

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Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I am in.

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Speaker 3: Hello Chad, But do we have four days until we're

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Speaker 3: in Chicago having drinks? Brother?

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Speaker 1: Can't wait, can't freaking wait. It's a great town, my

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Speaker 1: favorite town. I'm going to see a lot of friends

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Speaker 1: when we're there. It's going to be great to get

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Speaker 1: people together. For anyone listening to the show who doesn't

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Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about, I will give you the

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Speaker 1: heads up in a moment, because right now, while folks

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Speaker 1: are talking a lot about March Madness and the Sweet

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Speaker 1: sixteen starting this Thursday, a very chalky Sweet sixteen. This

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Speaker 1: Thursday is also an annual write of Spring Baseball's opening

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Speaker 1: day fourteen games, ten uninterrupted hours of Major League Baseball

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Speaker 1: as seven months of America's pastime. Let sports fans and

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Speaker 1: sports gamblers know Spring is truly here. Simon, way back

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Speaker 1: in the day, like when you were when we were

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Speaker 1: just starting to do this show together, our producer Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell used to do one of my favorite things in

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Speaker 1: the history of Action Network content. He used to do

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Speaker 1: a video, no joke, I think, every single day from

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Speaker 1: any place he could find in Milwaukee to talk about

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Speaker 1: what he was going to bet on a day baseball

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Speaker 1: game that day.

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Speaker 2: It was the most.

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Speaker 1: Funny, passionate, exciting video that Matt Mitchell could possibly put together.

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Speaker 1: It was when he was learning how to do video.

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Speaker 1: He's trying to figure out how to make himself so

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Speaker 1: valuable to the Action Network team.

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Speaker 2: Matt, do you remember those?

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Speaker 3: I sure do.

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Speaker 4: Sean Zerlo had to provide the picks because no one

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Speaker 4: wants my peck, So I'd get a pick from Sean

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Speaker 4: on every weekday day game. So if there's a day

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Speaker 4: with a weekday day game, I would get on my

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Speaker 4: roof or you know, go to the lake or get

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Speaker 4: on a boat or do something and give out that pack.

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Speaker 2: It was great.

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Speaker 1: It was great, and I'm glad you mentioned Schanzerla. Matt,

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Speaker 1: I want you to start doing those videos every day

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Speaker 1: for the next seven months. I think it'd be really

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Speaker 1: fun because you don't have much else going on. It's

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Speaker 1: not like, you know, football season's not happening, so you

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Speaker 1: don't really have anything else happening. You know who's going

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Speaker 1: to be busy for the next seven months. Our guest

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Speaker 1: action network go Gi. He is the engine behind our

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Speaker 1: baseball picks and projections, co hosts of the Wonderful Payoff

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Speaker 1: Pitch podcast, a co panelist with me at the recent

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Speaker 1: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in early March, Hello with

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Speaker 1: Seawn Zarrillo.

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Speaker 2: What's that brother?

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Speaker 5: Hey you guys doing. I wish Opening Day was on Wednesday.

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Speaker 5: I wish baseball, you know, had some foresight to actually

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Speaker 5: put Opening Day on a day where there's not some

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Speaker 5: Sweet sixteen games going on. God forbid. They gave themselves

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Speaker 5: an advantage and just took advantage of day games during

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Speaker 5: the summer instead of stacking all the games at night,

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Speaker 5: or did anything to separate themselves and give some attention

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Speaker 5: to itself as a sport. So unfortunately, I know you

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Speaker 5: said ten hours of commercial free baseball chat, I'll be

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Speaker 5: flipping back and forth to the Sweet sixteen games, so

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Speaker 5: it won't be commercial free for me or uninterrupted baseball

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Speaker 5: for me. If I'm going to be paying attention to

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Speaker 5: college basketball. I'm sure the average fan, the average sports

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Speaker 5: fan certainly will be too.

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Speaker 2: Zarrillo, like I said, he joined me at Sloan this year.

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Speaker 1: And for those who don't know, and I can't imagine

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Speaker 1: anyone who listens to the show doesn't know what Sloan is,

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Speaker 1: but it's basically this incredible. I think Bill Simmons called

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Speaker 1: it nerd Apalooza years ago. Was this conference that's been

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Speaker 1: going on for I don't know, fifteen sixteen years at

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Speaker 1: this point, maybe longer, almost twenty years. That happens at Sloan,

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Speaker 1: the Business school at MIT that started there and is

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Speaker 1: now at a convention center in Boston.

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Speaker 2: Two days of panels with.

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Speaker 1: Star studded speakers, all about sports, media, sports team sports management,

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Speaker 1: how to win at betting, how to win a TV.

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Speaker 1: It's got an incredible, incredible.

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Speaker 2: Slate of content.

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Speaker 1: And I was hosting a panel this year about how

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Speaker 1: to adjust your model, specifically betting when everything is going

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Speaker 1: wrong in real time. As Simon, it was really based

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Speaker 1: on why the fuck are all these favorites winning in

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Speaker 1: the NFL and how do people manage that over the

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Speaker 1: course of season when your model needs to change and

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Speaker 1: You're not used to changing your model on a dime.

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Speaker 1: So I asked Ariala to join the panel, and the

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Speaker 1: other panelists were Nate Silver, best selling author known creator

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Speaker 1: of five point thirty eight, can be antagonistic on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at times, and Jeff ma who is famously known as

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Speaker 1: one of the guys who was the Blackjack card counters

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Speaker 1: in the book of Bringing Down the House. He went

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Speaker 1: to mit brilliant guy, long time better. I've known him

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Speaker 1: for a long time, and so these guys are super smart,

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Speaker 1: very well versed in being on a panel, and this

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Speaker 1: was Arrillo's first time on a panel. The dude fucking

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Speaker 1: crushed it, like going back and forth, challenging Jeff, challenging Nate,

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Speaker 1: raising good points that both of them had to acknowledge

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Speaker 1: and then follow up on.

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Speaker 2: He was so good.

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Speaker 1: He also had my favorite anecdote of the entire panel

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Speaker 1: and speaks to how inside he is on baseball and

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Speaker 1: why everybody should listen to him. Simon, I know you

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Speaker 1: love when Zarilla comes on, because I know you love

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Speaker 1: Betton Baseball futures. Sean, do you remember the specific anecdote

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Speaker 1: you mentioned in the panel that stopped me in my

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Speaker 1: tracks that I had no idea you were going to

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Speaker 1: say that. I had to have you follow up on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I assume it's the Guardians shipping container issue from last year.

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Speaker 5: I had several people come up to me after the

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Speaker 5: panel talking about how interesting that was. They hadn't heard

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Speaker 5: of it. Baseball betters, you know, who paid attention entire

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Speaker 5: last season, had no idea this happened. So the Guardians

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Speaker 5: last year made an aesthetic change the concourse and right field.

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Speaker 5: They removed a bunch of shipping containers, which I believe

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Speaker 5: we're serving as concession stands. I'm not really sure. They

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Speaker 5: wanted to open up the concourse and they removed all

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Speaker 5: these shipping containers, which opened up a tunnel basically a

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Speaker 5: wind tunnel out to right field. Now they've made some

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Speaker 5: changes behind home plate this year. We'll see if it

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Speaker 5: ends up sticking. I think they removed some suites behind

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Speaker 5: home plates. We'll stay see if the park stays the same.

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Speaker 5: But essentially, in mid May, Jose Ramirez hit a fly

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Speaker 5: ball to right field that left the park at ninety

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Speaker 5: two point nine miles an hour. MLB classifies a hard

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Speaker 5: hit ball starting at ninety five miles an hour, and

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Speaker 5: it's not like this was the softest hit home run

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Speaker 5: this year or last year. It's not like it was

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Speaker 5: the softest hit home run of Vermirez's career, but it

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Speaker 5: was his softest hit home run in about three years.

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Speaker 5: And considering the state of the baseballs last year and

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Speaker 5: the reduced flight of those relative to twenty nineteen, and

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Speaker 5: the win the weather for that day, that ball should

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Speaker 5: not have gone out of the park unless something had

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Speaker 5: changed in that park. And looking at the park factors

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Speaker 5: for last year in Cleveland comparing it to prior years

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Speaker 5: now that we have more sufficient data, that's a park

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Speaker 5: that used to play about seven percent below the major

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Speaker 5: league average in terms of left handed power. Last year

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Speaker 5: was one of the best parks in baseball for left

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Speaker 5: handed power. It played about sixteen percent above the major

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Speaker 5: league average. So it's very obvious in hindsight that there

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Speaker 5: was a win tunnel effect out to right field in

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Speaker 5: Cleveland last year. Ver was cashit at sixty percent clip

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Speaker 5: through August, and then I think the market caught onto

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Speaker 5: it a little bit because they went one to twelve

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Speaker 5: in September. So just worth noting that that happened, worth

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Speaker 5: acknowledging it when we have outlier data points or outlier results.

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Speaker 5: It's worth investigating as to whether something changed, either a

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Speaker 5: rule change or a park dimension change, or something in

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Speaker 5: the park changed or the ball changed that could cause

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Speaker 5: this effect. I have some thoughts on the NCAA tournament

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Speaker 5: and the Unders hitting at a ridiculous rate using the

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Speaker 5: new basketball. It's not something I expected to see in

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Speaker 5: a different support, but baseball, they seem to change the

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Speaker 5: ball every year, and it's something we have to pay

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Speaker 5: very close attention to. This was a bit of a unique.

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Speaker 2: Circumstance, Simon, Isn't that crazy?

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Speaker 3: It is, but it's very baseball like. It's just this

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Speaker 3: is like the random thing that happens with this sport

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Speaker 3: that there is no You can do whatever you want

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Speaker 3: with your stadment, can design any way you want, you

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Speaker 3: can make the field designed any way you want, and

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Speaker 3: teams they'll just do that stuff, and guys like Sean,

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Speaker 3: we're smart enough. They'll take advantage where the common fan

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Speaker 3: will just be like, oh, look at that they made

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Speaker 3: a whole and left field or right field, you know,

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Speaker 3: like they don't want to think much of it, and

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Speaker 3: it's like, no, you can profit off of that move,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, that's That's really interesting though, the fact that

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Speaker 3: you know they can do that stuff and there is

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Speaker 3: there isn't there is no repercussion, right, They can just

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Speaker 3: do that and it's it's their stadium, right, So that's

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Speaker 3: interesting in football, I know, it's a big deal if

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Speaker 3: you want to change the stadium and move things around

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Speaker 3: just because teams think it's an advantage or disadvantage, especially

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Speaker 3: when it comes to kicking. So definitely really interesting. I

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Speaker 3: didn't even know that about the Guardians. Obviously, I'm not

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Speaker 3: too keen in on what's going on in Cleveland. So

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Speaker 3: that's crazy. That actually happened.

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Speaker 5: Again the Orioles. Orioles last year moved their left field

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Speaker 5: wall back in an effort to decrease or mars or

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Speaker 5: I said they moved it in in an effort to

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Speaker 5: They moved it in two years ago. They moved it

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Speaker 5: back last year to try to decrease some runs because

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Speaker 5: it was too many two years ago. Now they found

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Speaker 5: a midpoint this year. But this is a team with

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Speaker 5: a lot of young right handed hitters, and it's like, oh, like,

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Speaker 5: you guys are clearly trying to gain the system for

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Speaker 5: the roster bill that you currently have. There's nothing against it,

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Speaker 5: but they could keep doing it every year if they

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Speaker 5: want to. But at some point Major League Baseball may

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Speaker 5: have to step in and be like you guys can't

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Speaker 5: keep touching it every single year. So just is very interesting.

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Speaker 5: Like you said, Simon, there's no there's no rule against

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Speaker 5: making these changes. So if teams want to change their

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Speaker 5: park every year based upon their roster construction, they technically

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Speaker 5: can do so.

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Speaker 2: Uh, that's why we gots Arilo on the show. We

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Speaker 2: got more of that.

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Speaker 1: If you are listening to this in Illinois, Big News

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Speaker 1: as Reminer. The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five and is now live in my native state

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Speaker 1: of Illinois. Baby New bed three sixty five customers, including

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Speaker 1: player props, futures.

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Speaker 2: And more.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 1: especially in Illinois. You must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. As

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Speaker 1: Simon mentioned, we are.

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Speaker 2: Headed to Chicago.

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Speaker 1: This is the last week to r SVP for our

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Speaker 1: free Favorites live show event in Chicago. This will be

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Speaker 1: for the Elite eight March Madness Games Saturday, March twenty ninth,

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Speaker 1: Joe's on Weed in Beautiful Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks,

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Speaker 1: free live show with Stucky, the guys from Three Man

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Speaker 1: Weave Me and Simon. Will Duke be playing Will It

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Speaker 1: Be Arkansas? R SVP now to reserve your spot by

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Speaker 1: following the link in the episode's description, or just google

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast Event Chicago and the website will pop right up. Okay, Sean.

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Speaker 1: One of my other things that I love about the

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Speaker 1: Sloan Conference is that it is a subculture of people

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Speaker 1: who are so geeked out and focused on a singular topic.

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Speaker 1: Passion levels the playing field. It's insane to me. At

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Speaker 1: one point, Simon, we were at a cocktail party, that is,

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Speaker 1: the Thursday night before the conference begins for speakers, and

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Speaker 1: I saw Sean there, and I was talking to a

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Speaker 1: buddy of mine who is wildly successful, like venture capital

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Speaker 1: billionaire successful. And I introduced Sean to the guy and

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Speaker 1: they start talking, and within two minutes, I don't even

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Speaker 1: think Sean knows who this guy is, knows nothing about

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Speaker 1: his background. They are in a very intense conversation about

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Speaker 1: the dollar value of war assigned to players, they shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be assigned to players, and how people like Juan Soto

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Speaker 1: and Aaron Judge, Wansta who just signed a seven hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty five million dollar contract and Aaron Judge they

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Speaker 1: actually might be under paid.

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Speaker 2: Zarillo, explain what you mean.

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Speaker 5: There, Yeah, so baseball players in the market, the free

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Speaker 5: agent market, obviously, salaries are suppressed. When guys are coming

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Speaker 5: up their for six years, they have to go up

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Speaker 5: your arbitration, et cetera. Final three years of arbitration, they're

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Speaker 5: making about sixty to eighty percent of what they would

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Speaker 5: make on the open market. So Once guys hit the

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Speaker 5: open market, teams are usually willing to pay them eight

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Speaker 5: to ten million per win per win above replacement. Now

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Speaker 5: Aaron Judge was worth last year, if you're assuming eight

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Speaker 5: million per win, about ninety million dollars in terms of

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Speaker 5: on field value. Forget the marketing. You know, all the endorsements,

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Speaker 5: the ticket sales that your team can bring in as

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Speaker 5: a result of that player. Just his on field value

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Speaker 5: was ninety million dollars. He makes forty million dollars in salary.

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Speaker 5: So Aaron Judge could theoretically not play at all this

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Speaker 5: season and still be worth what they paid him last

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Speaker 5: year in this year, just based upon his production last year,

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Speaker 5: Shohyotani is deferring sixty eight of his seventy million dollars

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Speaker 5: salary annually. Now the Dodgers will have to put that

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Speaker 5: bill at some point, so it's not like you could

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Speaker 5: say they're gaining a huge advantage on his annual salary.

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Speaker 5: But Otani was worth about the same as Judge last year,

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Speaker 5: about ninety million dollars. So who's the most valuable player

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Speaker 5: in baseball relative to what they actually make on the field.

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Speaker 5: Gunner Henderson and Eli de Racruz are both still in

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Speaker 5: their pre arbitration years. They were both worth about fifty

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Speaker 5: to sixty million in terms of on field value last year,

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Speaker 5: making the Major League minimum of seven hundred and eighty

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Speaker 5: three thousand. So these guys were worth about seventy five

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Speaker 5: times what they're actually being paid on the field. Now, Tani,

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Speaker 5: you can factor in again the ticket sales, the inroads

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Speaker 5: to Japan for all future stars, right, what o their

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Speaker 5: Japanese star isn't going to want to come and follow

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Speaker 5: in Otani swittsteps. Rookie Sasaki was considering going to the padres.

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Speaker 5: He idolizes you Darvish. He still ended up going to

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Speaker 5: the doctors. So the opolo Tani has, you know, the endorsements,

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Speaker 5: the marketing in Japan, all the Jersey sales, all that. Like,

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Speaker 5: you don't factor that into the equation. But if you're

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Speaker 5: just talking about our and field value, you know this

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Speaker 5: isn't football, right. You don't need a cheap quarterback in

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Speaker 5: order to be able to build your roster. You have

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Speaker 5: unlimited funds essentially, if you're willing to pay into a

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Speaker 5: luxury tax. But for a team like the Reds more

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Speaker 5: a mid market team who can't afford to go into

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Speaker 5: that luxury tax threshold. Having a guy like Lado Cruz

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Speaker 5: who's making seven hundred eighty three thousand and providing fifty

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Speaker 5: million dollars in on field value. That's the kind of

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Speaker 5: player you need when you're a team like the Reds

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Speaker 5: in order to be able to make a run and

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Speaker 5: make the playoffs. And I think the Reds are a

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Speaker 5: team who could surprise this here. So having an MVP

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Speaker 5: type candidate making minimum money essentially, you know, in any sport,

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Speaker 5: that's going to be valuable. In baseball, I actually think

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Speaker 5: it's less valuable than other sports because you can just

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Speaker 5: spend on limited money, but still worth considering in Gunner

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Speaker 5: and Eliot are the two guys who are near the

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Speaker 5: top of the league still making the minimum.

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Speaker 3: Usually those teams already signed those guys like that. The

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Speaker 3: Gunner is usual, like most smart teams try to pay

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Speaker 3: him before at the big contract. So it's interesting that

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Speaker 3: they let her run down to the wire here. But

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Speaker 3: you know, me and chat have talking NASA about how

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Speaker 3: last year I didn't put enough emphasis into the new

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Speaker 3: kickoff rules and the changes the NFL happened. What are

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Speaker 3: the biggest challenges for you heading to this made this

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Speaker 3: major league season with capping baseball because it is different.

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Speaker 3: Right coming to this season, there are things that are

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Speaker 3: going to be different. So I would love to hear

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Speaker 3: what your perspective head into the season.

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Speaker 5: Two parks in particular, the A's and the Rays are

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Speaker 5: going to be playing in minor league parks. The Rays

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Speaker 5: are playing in the Yankees minor league park and Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 5: It's the same dimensions in the Yankee Stadium, which people

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Speaker 5: normally assume is the hitters park. Yankee Stadium is not

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Speaker 5: a hitters park. Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park with

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Speaker 5: a very short right field. So because the outfield is

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Speaker 5: a little bit smaller, you're actually able to rob more

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Speaker 5: base hits. There's fewer singles from center field than right field,

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Speaker 5: and when those home runs get hit, there's fewer guys

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Speaker 5: on base. But if you're putting these games in Tampa now,

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Speaker 5: you're increasing all the runs scoring because you have warmer

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Speaker 5: weather in Tampa, especially April, May, et cetera. September when

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Speaker 5: it would start cooling down a little bit, and you're

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Speaker 5: gonna have different wind patterns as well. Yankee Stadium doesn't

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Speaker 5: really have dramatic wind blowing out to right field necessarily,

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Speaker 5: so the wind and the weather going to be completely

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Speaker 5: different in Tampa because it's normally played in a dome.

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Speaker 5: The Rays typically Tropic Hata Field played about ten percent

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Speaker 5: below the major league average. Yankee Stadium is about three

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Speaker 5: percent below the major league average. But if you figure

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Speaker 5: another five percent for win and weather, now you're talking

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Speaker 5: about going from a park that was a clear pitchers

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Speaker 5: park to maybe a slightly hitter leaning park. So not

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Speaker 5: just betting right, but fantasy dfs all of these purposes,

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Speaker 5: the Rays will probably score more runs and their pitchers

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Speaker 5: will probably give up more runs this season. And then

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Speaker 5: the other is the Athletics who are now playing in

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Speaker 5: Sacker I know is compared to Oakland, way different weather

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Speaker 5: in Sacramento compared to Oakland, but also the A's park.

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Speaker 5: The Coliseum is one of the best pitchers parks in

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Speaker 5: baseball two, not only because of the weather being a

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Speaker 5: little bit cooler at night, giant dimensions, but also the

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Speaker 5: foul territory in that park is enormous. The amount of

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Speaker 5: pop ups you could generate in that park that lead

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Speaker 5: to free outs, that lead to quicker played appearances compared

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Speaker 5: to minor league park with almost no foul territory is

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Speaker 5: just going to increase the balls and play, going to

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Speaker 5: increase the run scoring.

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Speaker 3: What have you.

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Speaker 5: Brett Rooker is a guy who I think is actually

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Speaker 5: a potential viable Major league home run leader candidate this season.

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Speaker 5: He has twenty eight homers at home forty one on

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Speaker 5: the road the past two seasons. So if you're giving

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Speaker 5: him an entire season of upgraded offensive park at home

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Speaker 5: and then factoring those road games too, I think he's

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Speaker 5: a guy who probably easily surpasses forty home runs this

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Speaker 5: season when he's been sitting in the mid thirties the

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Speaker 5: past couple years. So in general, I think Rays and

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Speaker 5: A's overs maybe early could be undervalued. We'll see how

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Speaker 5: quickly the market accounts for that. I think at most

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Speaker 5: you'll get two or three weeks out of it if

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Speaker 5: they don't adjust right away. Just you know, in general,

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Speaker 5: those teams scoring more runs and allowing more runs this season.

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Speaker 5: For fantasy purposes as well, I think you can upgrade

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Speaker 5: the run scoring for both those teams.

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Speaker 1: Everyone make a note Brett Rooker, Oakland A's what is

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Speaker 1: he going off at to lead the league in home runs?

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Speaker 1: Because I don't want to miss that very tangible betting advice.

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Speaker 5: He's about thirty to one. I took eighty to one

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Speaker 5: earlier in the offseason. He's really come down. I've been

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Speaker 5: talking about the park factor thing a bunch. I think

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Speaker 5: other people have caught onto the facto that projections baseball

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Speaker 5: projections are usually going to take a weighted three year

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Speaker 5: average of production. They're going to take like sixty percent

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Speaker 5: of the previous year, you know, thirty percent of two

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Speaker 5: years ago and ten percent of three years ago. But

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Speaker 5: if you're waiting an average of a guy who is

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Speaker 5: now competing in a completely different part, in a completely

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Speaker 5: different offensive environment, the weight that average may be missing

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Speaker 5: some of the upgrades that are built into that. So

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Speaker 5: I think in terms of like his home run overprop

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Speaker 5: et cetera, there's probably value on Brooker across the board

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Speaker 5: and on a lot of A's players this season. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: third to one or better on Rooker to lead the

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Speaker 5: league at home runs, I think it's definitely worth a poke.

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Speaker 1: When you're looking at those park metrics, how are you

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Speaker 1: deciding where to even start? You just mentioned everything from

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Speaker 1: foul territory to weather patterns to warmer weather to win

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Speaker 1: to the how that stadium of the exact same dimensions

403
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Speaker 1: plays in New York and what that does to decreasing offense.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot of time, it's a lot to unpack.

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Speaker 1: The data points are infinite. How are you deciding what's

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Speaker 1: going to matter.

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Speaker 5: I'm not doing all the work on my own, right

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Speaker 5: It's something that I'm at to figure out why these

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Speaker 5: parks may play different than one another. But we do

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Speaker 5: have park factor adjustments based on these samples of games

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Speaker 5: played in the minor leagues and the way those are calculated.

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Speaker 5: It takes the average production of guys when they play

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Speaker 5: in their park and then calculates the average production of

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Speaker 5: those teams when they travel to away parks, and it's

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Speaker 5: trying to figure out what percentage increase or decrease they

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Speaker 5: have in various areas to both fields, right to right

417
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Speaker 5: field or to left field, to right handed hitters left

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Speaker 5: handed hitters, in terms of improving or decreasing the chance

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Speaker 5: for singles, doubles, triples, homers, and from there also strikeouts

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Speaker 5: and walks. Different batter's eyes in different stadiums can increase

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Speaker 5: strikeouts or increase walks, depending on how easy it is

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Speaker 5: to see the ball. Seattle very well known for this.

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Speaker 5: Hitters really struggle to see the ball in Seattle, and

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Speaker 5: as a result, their pitchers perform better and hitters generally

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Speaker 5: perform worse. Willie Damas and Tampa Bay, he struggled to

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Speaker 5: see he had an eyesight issue. He struggled to see

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Speaker 5: the ball with the white in Tampa Bay. He went

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Speaker 5: to Milwaukee and broke out as a hitter. So there's

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Speaker 5: a lot of like little nuanced things the guys home

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Speaker 5: versus road. But even the batter's eye is something people

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Speaker 5: don't really think of. From one park to the next.

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Speaker 5: It's actually just easier to see the baseball coming out

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Speaker 5: of the pitcher's hand. But it's not work that I

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Speaker 5: have to do manually. We have park factors over multiple years.

435
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 5: Generally three years is enough to have a sufficient sample,

436
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 5: so we'll use rolling three year samples. But you can

437
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 5: basically just take the differential between how teams perform at home,

438
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 5: how they perform on the road, how teams coming in

439
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 5: there perform in their home park and then perform coming

440
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 5: in and we know roughly compared to league average, how

441
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 5: to adjust things up or down. We talked about the

442
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 5: tokyodom a bunch last week, you know, on the Payoff

443
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 5: Pitch podcast, in terms of the games being played there,

444
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 5: we have Japanese averages for that park, and we know

445
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 5: based upon the dimensions that that park should increase home runs.

446
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 5: We clearly see that increase in the park factors because

447
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 5: the outfield walls there, from right field to center field,

448
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 5: it's more of a line. Most major league parks are

449
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 5: going to be a little bit more rounded. The Tokyo

450
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 5: Dome is a little bit more diagonal to center field,

451
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 5: so those power allies are a little bit shorter, and

452
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 5: sure enough in the data you see an increase in

453
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 5: home run factor, but a decrease for both singles and

454
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 5: doubles because outfielders able to get to more of those

455
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 5: balls because the power rallies are not as deep. So

456
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 5: you want to see the numbers and the data, but

457
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 5: then you want to actually look at the park and

458
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 5: make sure it checks out intuitively with the data you

459
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 5: actually have. And when the Jas, for example, played in

460
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 5: a a ballpark in Dunnadean a couple of years ago,

461
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 5: we didn't have a sufficient sample going into that season,

462
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 5: and that park ended up playing like a severe offensive park.

463
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 5: Once you put major league hitters in it, you'd have

464
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 5: to remember that too, and that's something to factor in

465
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 5: as well. These are minor league hitters with minor league

466
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 5: power and minor league pitch velocities playing in this park.

467
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 5: Once you've got pitchers throwing a little bit harder, once

468
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 5: you have hitters swinging the bat a little bit harder,

469
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 5: the balls are in general are going to fly a

470
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 5: little bit further. So you do have to upgrade the

471
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 5: offensive environment slightly based upon the major league velocities, but

472
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 5: in generally, do you know how the parks in those

473
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 5: leagues play relative to one another?

474
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: All Right? A lot of rule changes every year in baseball.

475
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 5: Maybe next year, the automated ball strike last year.

476
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: They're always fucking with something yep, right, or.

477
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 5: The rules, pitchclock last year.

478
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: Everything, So the pitchclock, which I thought was great.

479
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 5: And there's always going to be unintended consequences. And this

480
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 5: is what I found most interesting about last year. With

481
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 5: the pitchclock, there's less time to reload for pitchers and hitters. Right, So,

482
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 5: as MLB changed the baseball in twenty nineteen, we set

483
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 5: a record for home runs. MLB said, this is too

484
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 5: many home runs. Let's introduce humidors, let's change the baseball.

485
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 5: That became like a two or three year process. They

486
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 5: introduced new baseballs several times. I'm constantly monitoring the drag

487
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 5: coefficient data on baseball savant. That said, we've had proof

488
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 5: based upon baseballs that they've in the stands and people

489
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 5: have sliced open, that they've used different batches of baseballs simultaneously.

490
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 5: You may have had a batter come to the plate

491
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 5: and within the same plate appearances get fed different batches

492
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 5: of baseballs that some may fly ten feet further than

493
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 5: the others. So it's almost impossible to account for everything.

494
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 5: That said, we do our best with the information we

495
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 5: have available. And something I noticed last year is you

496
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 5: always have to pay attention to unintended consequences of rule changes.

497
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 5: For example, with the pitchclock, I think batters and pitchers

498
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 5: did not have as much time to reload and get

499
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 5: back to their maximum swing velocity or pitch velocity between pitches.

500
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 5: So even though last year the baseball stayed exactly the

501
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 5: same based on the data that we have, and that

502
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 5: means the home ru on a fly ball rate should

503
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 5: have remained steady, it actually decreased. Why will It's probable

504
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 5: that when you have pitchers who are throwing ninety seven

505
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: percent of their maximum velocity or hitters who were swinging

506
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 5: ninety five percent of their maximum swing velosc be because

507
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 5: they don't have forty seconds to reload between pitches. They

508
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 5: only have thirty seconds. You're just going to see a

509
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 5: slight reduction in how hard those balls could be hit. Typically,

510
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 5: a bat ball is about eighty percent pitcher twenty percent hitter.

511
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 5: So if you're just taking a little bit off of both,

512
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 5: you know the ball is going to fly five feet

513
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 5: less ten feet less, and you're going to end up

514
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 5: with a few more fly balls instead of hommers. But

515
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 5: then you also have the two year data sample where

516
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 5: they got rid of the shift, and as a result,

517
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 5: you're going to have batters trying to hit the ball

518
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 5: and play more right, not trying to put the ball

519
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 5: out as much. Necessarily, maybe the construct of these rosters,

520
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 5: the type of players that comes into the league may

521
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:37,959
Speaker 5: change a little bit. You're going to get guys who

522
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 5: are a little bit more contact oriented who can handle that.

523
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 5: So I think, you know, regardless of the rule changes,

524
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 5: regardless of the impact, you think it might have, there's

525
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 5: always going to be downstream effects as a result that

526
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 5: you can't account for, and those are the things that

527
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 5: you can actually try to mine from the data, And

528
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 5: that's going to be where your edge is because people always,

529
00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 5: you know, by the time people are talking about an

530
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 5: that they see in the market, the Guardians thing for

531
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 5: example last year, that means it's likely already factored into it.

532
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,959
Speaker 5: If you want to mind data points yourself, be very

533
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 5: quiet about it, and you know, act upon those edges

534
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 5: as long as you can. But usually, as I said,

535
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,479
Speaker 5: you're never going to get more than two or three

536
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 5: weeks out of that edge.

537
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: I mean, what an insane time that was a baseball fan, Like,

538
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 3: I know you just casually mentioned it, but the fact

539
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 3: that we're in a sport that from stadium stadium, the

540
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: balls are different and there's different things inside these said balls.

541
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 3: Any other sport, I feel like people be taking to

542
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: the streets, but Baseball, lucky for them, it's the most relaxed,

543
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 3: laid back fans. I mean just outside of Philly, of course,

544
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: But like, seriously though, like I can't get over how

545
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 3: casual you just said that, where it's like that's insane.

546
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: That is insane to think they're messing with the balls

547
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 3: that way, because I knew that was true and I've

548
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 3: heard the rumors about it, but that's like last year.

549
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 3: I remember what you're talking about. People are cutting the

550
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 3: balls open. Everyone was like, what the fuck is going

551
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 3: on here? So that's crazy. That's where I with baseball,

552
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,479
Speaker 3: like I hate it, but at the same time, I

553
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 3: love it because it's the most bizarre sport. Like, as

554
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: someone that tries to explain the sport to people that

555
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 3: come over from England, I'm like, it's like cricket, but

556
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 3: it's not. It's it's it's such an American sport and

557
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: it's so bizarre in so many ways. But let's let's

558
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: get back to this season. What team do you think

559
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 3: has improved the most since last season headed to this year.

560
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 3: There are any teams that really jump out to you.

561
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 5: Than replacement, It's the Mets in terms of the I

562
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 5: knew you.

563
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 3: Go to the Mets, Sean, I knew you're gonna go

564
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 3: to the Mets.

565
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 5: Well, but it's not a team I actually have bets

566
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 5: on this season, and by all projections right now, the

567
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 5: under is the play on the Mets. I think the

568
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 5: market is clearly factoring in them making additions throughout the season.

569
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 5: This is the best farm system they've had in the while.

570
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,719
Speaker 5: Uh there's multiple guys go and sees lose Robert who

571
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,719
Speaker 5: are good fits for them, who they may go out

572
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 5: and acquire. So I think the market is expecting the

573
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 5: Mets to make additional moves. By my you know, this

574
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 5: is nothing to do with me. By independent like wins

575
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 5: of replacement projections, they have improved the most. The teams

576
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 5: that I like the most compared to Mark coming into

577
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 5: the year are Texas, Atlanta, Arizona, and probably Cincinnati. Arizona

578
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 5: seems to be a pretty sharp play amongst people who

579
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 5: I trust in the betting space, you know, people at

580
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 5: a high level, and I view them as a very

581
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 5: safe playoff team. The problem is they have almost no

582
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 5: path to winning division. There's about a sixteen win gap

583
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 5: between them and the Dodgers across every projection system, and

584
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 5: even accounting for like the widest level of standard deviation,

585
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 5: there's almost no path. Moogie Betts continues the wigh one

586
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty pounds, you know, and that remains a

587
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 5: concern for the Dodtors certainly livens it up a little

588
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 5: bit for Arizona. But I think Arizona is very live.

589
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 5: I mean, they're basically top five in lineup. They finished

590
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 5: first in running scored last year. They have the fifth

591
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 5: or sixth best rotation, their top five bullpen. They might

592
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 5: be the best base running team in baseball. And they're

593
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 5: probably a top five defensive team too. So they don't

594
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,959
Speaker 5: do anything wrong. Solve in the World Series two years ago.

595
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 5: So the team they were with who beat them, the

596
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 5: Texas Rangers, had a down year last year. Arizona also

597
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 5: didn't make the playoffs. Texas completely retooled their bullpen. They

598
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 5: have seven new relievers in their bullpen. They have two

599
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 5: high end pitching prospects who they drafted in the first round.

600
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 5: This is also the healthiest Jacob deGrom has been in years.

601
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 5: You know, Jacob megram as the widest range of outcomes

602
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 5: of many player in baseball this year. If you could

603
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 5: tell me the final season stat line for one player

604
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 5: this year in advance, I'd want it to be Jacob

605
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 5: g Graft because I think you could do a lot

606
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 5: with that information in terms of betting Cy Young or

607
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 5: strikeout leader, or just knowing how good the Rangers are

608
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 5: going to be during the regular season. But Texas across

609
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 5: the board, I think is the best team in the

610
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 5: AL West. I think they're the second best team in

611
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 5: the American League. I like them to get a buy.

612
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 5: I like Texas to potentially win the American League. And

613
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 5: I think those two teams, as I said, who made

614
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 5: the World Series two years ago together, who kind of

615
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 5: surprised Texas and Arizona down years last year. I like

616
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 5: it both a lot coming into this year. And then Atlanta.

617
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 5: You know, Atlanta won eighty nine games last year without

618
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 5: Akunyo or Strider for most of the season. They lost

619
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,959
Speaker 5: Max Freed. They have pitchers who I'm a little bit

620
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 5: more confident in replacing lost innings than I think the

621
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 5: market is. But across the board, the public projection market

622
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 5: views Atlanta as a value bet. The lowest projection on

623
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 5: them has them at like plus one zero four to

624
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 5: win the division. The average projections have them about sixty

625
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 5: percent and minus one to fifty, and you can still

626
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 5: get plus money. I think plus one thirty. I took

627
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 5: plus one seventy earlier in the offseason, So Atlanta should

628
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 5: bounce back this year. If Strider and Acud had come

629
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 5: back healthy, and I think that's the biggest World Series

630
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 5: threat aside from the Dodgers.

631
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: Simon, the best part about baseball is it offers so

632
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: many ways to participate. Some people play baseball. They wind

633
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: up to deliver a pitch. They squat deeply to catch

634
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: a low fastball. They slide headfirst into home. Others are

635
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: watching baseball. They adjust themselves on a bleacher, They swivel

636
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: on a bar stool, or, like our producer Matt Mitchell,

637
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: they're furiously peddling an exercise bike as they sweat an

638
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: ill advised first inning bet. Regardless of how you participate,

639
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: whether you're winding up or squatting, or sliding or swiveling,

640
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: you can only perform at your best when you're comfortable,

641
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: and nobody keeps you comfortable from the dugout.

642
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: To the warning track.

643
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: Like our beloved sponsor Tommy John, go from spring training

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650
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Speaker 1: Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in

651
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five?

652
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: Because comfort is king.

653
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy John got Tommy John

654
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites and get twenty five percent off

655
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: your first order. Save twenty five percent at Tommy John

656
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: dot com slash Favorites. That's Tommy John dot Com slash Favorites.

657
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell opening up the pun playbook for today's Tommy

658
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: John ad read Sean before Thursday arrives.

659
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 2: You've mentioned some of.

660
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: Your favorite futures bets. Give us your absolute favorites you've

661
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: made so far.

662
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 5: Corbyn Carrol runs later. It's my favorite player prop to

663
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 5: lead the Major League in runs. I made this about

664
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 5: nine to one in terms of projecting it out modeled

665
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 5: these you know, ran it through ten thousand sims. He

666
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 5: wins this about ten to eleven percent of the time.

667
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 5: He was awful at the start of the year last year.

668
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 5: I think he came into this season banged up. He

669
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 5: still finished fifth in baseball with one hundred and twenty

670
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 5: run runs scored. He led the league in the second half,

671
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 5: and what he started doing in the second half was

672
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 5: pulling flave balls in the year. It's the best way

673
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 5: to get to your power in baseball. You can find

674
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 5: the stat on Baseball Savant now pull air percentage. It's

675
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 5: a great stat to look at to find guys who

676
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 5: are increasing their power raising that percentage throughout the season.

677
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 5: It's very evident Carol was trying to get to more

678
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 5: pulled fly balls later in the year, and because he's

679
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 5: so fast, he gets the second or third automatically all

680
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,760
Speaker 5: those pulled fly balls to red field. So Carol walks

681
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 5: a ton, not a guy you want to bet for.

682
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 5: Hits leader, but he should be on second base basically

683
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 5: every time he gets on base because he steals it

684
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 5: or because he hits a double down the line. Love

685
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 5: him to believe the league in runs this year, bet

686
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 5: at twenty to one. I take that at ten to

687
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 5: one or better. Jacob de gram I mentioned the Alsy

688
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 5: Young also lead the league to strike outs of forty

689
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 5: to one. I just think that's a fun long shot

690
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 5: prop considering his upside. When you're betting bets like this,

691
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 5: you're assuming everybody is gonna get hurt, right, I'm factoring

692
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 5: in an injury percentage to every single player. Even the

693
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 5: safest guys are still going to get hurt twenty percent

694
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 5: of the time. Even if you assume Degram gets hurt

695
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 5: seventy percent of the time, he's still a decent bet

696
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 5: at ford to one to lead the league in strikeouts.

697
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 5: I think the Jay's are a value team the Al East.

698
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 5: You know, I'm kind of down on the Yankees this year.

699
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 5: Yankees to miss the playoffs in general, the under now

700
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 5: that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of

701
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 5: depth on the Yankees. I think there's a real chance

702
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 5: that you get like a goofy group of three teams

703
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 5: from the Aleas to make the playoffs, like the Red Sox,

704
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 5: the Orioles, and then one of the Razor Js. There's

705
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 5: a lot of value projected value on the Jays right

706
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 5: now in the betting market. I would bet their win

707
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 5: total over seventy nine and a half seventy eight and

708
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 5: a half. But if you want to bet longer shot

709
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 5: props on them, lad to win al MVP at fifteen

710
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 5: to one to be the HITS leader at around the

711
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 5: same price, RBI leader at thirty to one. Their divisional

712
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 5: odds are about twelve to one, eleven to one. I

713
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 5: think if they're going to get there, vlad is probably

714
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 5: going to need to catch cash some of those props

715
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 5: or get very close to it. So I'd rather take

716
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 5: the better numbers. Very similar betting approach the Cincinnati Reds,

717
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 5: who I mentioned before, they're about five to one to

718
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 5: win the division. Terry Francona in a lot of markets

719
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 5: is a better number to win NL Manager of the Year.

720
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 5: I just think a lot of these bets are sort

721
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 5: of correlated, highly correlated to one another, where if the

722
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 5: Reds they may not even need to win the division,

723
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 5: they may just get in with the wildcard and frank

724
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 5: ConA wins Manager of the Year. So there might be

725
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,320
Speaker 5: some ways to bet these teams that you can find

726
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 5: player markets or awards markets that are almost directly correlated

727
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 5: to those outcomes happening that you can bet better numbers on.

728
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 5: Just want to talk about a couple three more player

729
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 5: props before we get out of here. Logan Gilbert alsy Young.

730
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 5: He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His

731
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 5: velocity increased last year. He changed his pitch mix love

732
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 5: Gilbert this year. Chris Sanchez Enelsayag at fifty to one.

733
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 5: It seems like a long shot, considering he's probably the

734
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 5: second or third best pitcher on his team behind Zach Wheeler.

735
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 5: This is a guy, though his velocity is up three

736
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 5: miles an hour in spring training. Again, you know you

737
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 5: could project all this stuff out right, take averages, et cetera.

738
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 5: You have to keep a close eye on improvements guys

739
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 5: are making mechanically in terms of velocity or pitch mixes

740
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 5: in spring training. That's where you're gonna find. The real

741
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 5: value in these bets is combining the math with the scouting.

742
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 5: I try to blend it as much as I can

743
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 5: and rocket the year. Jacob Wilson of the A's I

744
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 5: talked about them being in a big offensive park this year.

745
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 5: This guy could hit three hundred. He blew through the minors.

746
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 5: I think he only played seventy games in the minor leagues.

747
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 5: He hit over four hundred and the miners last year.

748
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 5: Came up to the Bigs second game towards hamstring or

749
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 5: strained his hamstring and is basically out for the rest

750
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 5: of this season. So this is the guy who's hitting

751
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 5: like four thirty in Double A and Triple A it

752
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 5: looked like he was going to be a Rookie of

753
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 5: the Year candidate last year hamstring set of back. I

754
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 5: think he's primed to go for twenty twenty five in

755
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:41,959
Speaker 5: a park that I think is going to really score

756
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 5: a lot of runs. So yeah, those are some of

757
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 5: my play favorite player props. As I said, the Yankees

758
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 5: to miss the Phillies under, and then the best bet

759
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 5: on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs.

760
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 5: I'm the highest in the market on the Guardians. I'm

761
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 5: at minus two forty on them to miss. I'm at

762
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 5: twenty nine percent for them to make it. Everybody else

763
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 5: is it twenty five percenter below. So you know, just mathematically,

764
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 5: the Guardians is a massive edge. That's like a fifteen

765
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 5: percent edge at minus one forty compared to an average

766
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 5: projection of minus two seventy five minus three seventy five.

767
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 5: If you throw a mine away, Yeah, that's definitely worth

768
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 5: betting into. I added it back to the action that

769
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 5: we're got for a third time today. It's the third

770
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 5: time I bet at this offseason. It's still a substantial edge.

771
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 5: I bet at minus one twenty, minus one ten, and

772
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 5: now minus one forty. So if you're going to place one.

773
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 5: Bet Guardians missed the playoffs, I think is a huge edge.

774
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 3: Let's get to it, Sean. Everyone knows I'm Northeast biased.

775
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 3: NL East the best division in baseball. The storylines are crazy,

776
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 3: Like as a Phillies fan, I think as a fan base,

777
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 3: we're sick of underachieving and not getting in the World Series.

778
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 3: And I think ownership is kind of the same view.

779
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 3: They've spent the money, we got the players. The excuses

780
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 3: are gonna a little wear thin. We're old now, like

781
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 3: most our guys are above thirty, which in baseball you

782
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 3: don't want to be at. I mean the Mets, obviously,

783
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 3: you know they've spent the money. The ownership has come in,

784
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: they've spent the money. They've built an incredible team. Obviously

785
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 3: they went to a World Series. They're a great team now.

786
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 3: Like you said, Atlanta, they might be the best team

787
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 3: in the division. And there were horrible injury luck like

788
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 3: their injury luck. I don't know what their ownership, whoever

789
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,280
Speaker 3: did something over there has done something wrong in their past,

790
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 3: but they have the most insane injury luck I've ever

791
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 3: seen for a baseball team, Like literally their best players

792
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 3: would have season ending injuries like brutal, brutal losses. And

793
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 3: from your perspective, what are you seeing in this division

794
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 3: specifically that's everyone's just talking about Dan at least so much.

795
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 3: Is it just me being Northeast bias or is this

796
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 3: really a really top heavy division right now?

797
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 5: I believe by odds they've three the top five World

798
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 5: Series favorites. The Braves, the Bets, and the Phillies are

799
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 5: all in the top five for World Series odds. So

800
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 5: I think that's justified in terms of talking about these

801
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 5: three teams. The Phillies won it last year. I think

802
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 5: most people projected them in his third best or the

803
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 5: second best going into last year. I have them third

804
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 5: best going into this year. I'm in eighty five wins

805
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 5: on the Phillies. I think they're on the downslope of this,

806
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 5: you know, competitive window. Harper, Turner, Schwarber, casteanos Reo, Muto,

807
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 5: Willard Nola. They're gonna turn thirty three on average this

808
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 5: year on average, so you have a year maybe two

809
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 5: left at best of championship window. I think Sanchez, like

810
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 5: I said, is emerging, you know, gives them another guy.

811
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 5: But there's really not many spots that this team can improve.

812
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 5: There's not many areas where they can go out and

813
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 5: trade for somebody to improve it, like the rotation.

814
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 3: Sars is already on the DL.

815
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, Suarez on the d L. They have Andrew Painter,

816
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 5: who's one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. So

817
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 5: you know that that can like supplement that loss. But

818
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 5: the bullpen is probably only going to get worse relative

819
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 5: to last year. They have one of the best bullpens

820
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 5: in baseball last year too. Bullpens are one of the

821
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 5: least sticky things year to year. You know bullpen variants.

822
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 5: Your bullpen doesn't throw that many innings, so bullpen's fluctuate

823
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 5: greatly from one year to the next. That's you know

824
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 5: another reason why the Guardians I think I'm down on

825
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 5: them this year. The Brewers why I'm down on then

826
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 5: this year. Those are two teams I bet last year

827
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 5: upon boltank quality. I think both are likely to take

828
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,800
Speaker 5: a step back this season. I kind of view the

829
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 5: Phillies in the same way. The Phillies are one of

830
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 5: the best win total underbets on the board. In my opinion,

831
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 5: nobody has them higher than ninety wins. I have them

832
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 5: at eighty four point seven. The lowest out there aside

833
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 5: for me, is at eighty six, but again eighty six

834
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 5: to ninety the average is about eighty seven. You can

835
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 5: bet an under ninety one and a half. I think

836
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 5: that's fine, or just bet the Braves to win the division.

837
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 5: And as I said, the Mets are also a little

838
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 5: bit overvalued right now, but they are likely to add pieces,

839
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 5: likelyer to add pieces than almost anybody else in season

840
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 5: this year. So yeah, it's it's Braves, Mets, Phillies right now.

841
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 5: I'd probably put it Braves, Phillies, Mets, but I'm forecasting

842
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 5: additions for the Mets at some point.

843
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 2: I love Sorry, Simon, did you have a follow up?

844
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:47,760
Speaker 3: There? No, no far away.

845
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: I love listening to Simon talk about the Phillies because

846
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: you're such a dead eyed pro to me, and even

847
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: though I know know you have such a deep, abiding

848
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: passion for the Eagles and it doesn't come out during

849
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: the season because you're so professional about the numbers you make,

850
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: the bets, you make, the conversations we have that it's

851
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 1: not the same as when you're talking about the Phillies.

852
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: I might want to do a hockey podcast only to

853
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: talk about the Flyers and here you go full Flyer

854
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 1: fanatic like, because that would be pure joy because I

855
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 1: can see it.

856
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 2: I know you're willing.

857
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: You're wearing your Phillies jersey today. I've been to Phillies

858
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: games with you before. I feel like you've gone to

859
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: the Didn't you go to a Phillies World Series game

860
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 1: when they were in it?

861
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: Right? Yeah? Brother, I was at the Phillies no hitter.

862
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 2: Against that, that's right, Yes, that's right.

863
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 3: Most painful memory as a Phillies fan in my life.

864
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: And so like hearing you like ask questions as a

865
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: fan and not a better is actually just pure joy.

866
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 3: Because I was sewing the on fired up. It's like

867
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: it's a really small window that they they've done themselves

868
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 3: into here, like we basically burn the boats like it's

869
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 3: this is it. All of our guys are super old

870
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 3: in baseball. Seawn even talked about it's the most random

871
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 3: thing ever. A guy can be perfect the minors come up,

872
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 3: he runs too hard because he's too excited in his

873
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 3: second game in the league, tears a hamstring like it's

874
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 3: so fickle in this sport. So yeah, to me, obviously,

875
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:25,959
Speaker 3: Sean can probably see it. I'm scared of them Mets.

876
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 3: I'm scared of Atlanta, Like as a Phillies fan. They're

877
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 3: younger and on paper they're kind of better. A lot

878
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: of them, like a lot of the nerds I know,

879
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 3: are kind of preaching what Shawn's preaching here. It's like, no,

880
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 3: these are undervalue teams. The Mets are, of course, can

881
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 3: be overvalued just because the market they're in. But Atlanta,

882
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 3: that's they're the perfect sleeper team to what Seawn's talked

883
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 3: about when the division make up runner the World Series.

884
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 3: And I hate it. I hate Atlanta Braves. So it's

885
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,959
Speaker 3: it's painful to hear, but it's like everything he says

886
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: just feels like the truth.

887
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 5: I mean, it's the last year Atlanta and the Daughters

888
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 5: were both projected across the market for about one hundred wins.

889
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 5: They were like neck and neck with each other. There

890
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 5: were some projection systems that thought the Braves were a

891
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 5: better team going into last year than the Dodders. Now,

892
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 5: all of their offensive players were coming off of careers

893
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 5: last year. They all had you know, struggling seasons or

894
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 5: got injured or down seasons. Right, So if they find

895
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 5: somewhere in the middle of those two years where careers

896
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 5: versus everything went wrong, they still won eighty nine games

897
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 5: in a year went everything wrong. I mean, the floor

898
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 5: for this team is extremely high. The floor for the

899
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 5: Phillies is pretty high too. You know, there's projections out

900
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 5: there that say the Phillies are a good bet to

901
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 5: miss the playoffs. It's not something I'm betting just because

902
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 5: the floor for this team is so high. The rotation

903
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 5: is so deep. You know, even if these offensive players

904
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 5: decline like this team still wins eighty five games pretty comfortably.

905
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 5: I just don't know if they have the ceiling to

906
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 5: win ninety five again, if the Braves are going to

907
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:49,959
Speaker 5: be healthy, and if the Mets are going to be better.

908
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 1: I need the Phillies to be great for TikTok because

909
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: they're my favorite TikTok. Is Phillies fans in the playoffs

910
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: reacting to game winning hits by Bryce Harper It's just

911
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 1: my and Nick Castianos like those are my favorite tiktoks ever.

912
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,640
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Speaker 1: That's Edgeboost dot Bet promo code favorites. All right, Sean,

933
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, we talked about bet

934
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: three six five. It just went live in Illinois. I'm

935
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 1: not going to ask you about the Cubs. I'm going

936
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: to ask you about what was a Chernobyl of a

937
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: season for the Chicago White Sox.

938
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 2: I would go.

939
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: Home, like visit family during the summer, and my dad

940
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: still subscribes to the paper version of the Chicago Sun Times.

941
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 1: And when I was there in the summer, they were

942
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 1: in the midst of the most epic, historic record breaking

943
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: losing streak, and for like three days I was reading

944
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: it every morning just for the pure comedy and like

945
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 1: dark comedy.

946
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 2: Of all of it.

947
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: Explain how historically inept the White Sox were last year,

948
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 1: how rare that was, and could they be this bad

949
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: this season?

950
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe they did. They finished with the worst

951
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 5: or the second worst winning percentage of all time. I

952
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 5: can't recall if they ended up breaking the record or not,

953
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 5: but coming into the year, they were projected by basically

954
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 5: every system to win like sixty games. They underachieved by

955
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 5: twenty plus wins. Now, the Giants, you remember a couple

956
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 5: of years ago, ended up winning the NL West. They

957
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 5: won like one hundred plus games in that season. They

958
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 5: beat the Dodgers. They overachieved compared to public projections by

959
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 5: about the same number of wins. Bye about twenty twenty

960
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 5: four wins. So the White Sox underachieved last season by

961
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 5: about as much as the Giants overachieved two years ago

962
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 5: when they won the NL West. That's just like an

963
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 5: interesting parallel to think about about how far above or

964
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 5: below expectations you have to play. Because with the Daughters

965
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 5: and Dbacks this year, it's about a fifteen win gap

966
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 5: on average between those two teams. That's like roughly what

967
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 5: the Giants had to overcome two years ago, maybe even

968
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 5: a little bit more than that. These are one percent

969
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 5: outcomes in terms of these things actually happening, maybe even

970
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 5: less than one percent. You know, the Giants were a

971
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 5: ninety ninth percent of outcome. The White Sox were a

972
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 5: one percent ou outcome last year. Now, everybody sees them

973
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 5: winning at like at least fifty five games this year,

974
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 5: sixty games this year. I think I have them at

975
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 5: around fifty five to fifty seven wins. A thirteen win

976
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 5: fifteen win improvement would feel like a fucking miracle with

977
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 5: that team. Like Colin Richard, our resident Chicago White Sox fan,

978
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 5: used to be on Payoff Pitch podcast with me, our

979
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 5: formal MLB editor, he thinks this team is worse than

980
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 5: the team that they had coming into last year. I

981
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,240
Speaker 5: believe that they've had six pitchers get Tommy John surgery

982
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 5: this month. Six that's a lot. Sean Burke, who's starting

983
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 5: for them on opening Day, I think as the Rookie

984
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 5: of the Year candidate. He looks really solid. They traded

985
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,479
Speaker 5: Garrett Crouch though to the Red Sox for Kyle Teal

986
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 5: and other prospects. Crochet was like most of their Yeah,

987
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 5: he's by far their best player. Last year, Lewis Robert

988
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 5: didn't play a lot of time. They may trade Luis

989
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,439
Speaker 5: Robert this year. So by the end of the year,

990
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 5: this team probably is worse than the team that they

991
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 5: had last year. It's just a question of, like these

992
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 5: young pitchers that they have coming up, these young position

993
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 5: players they have coming up, what they actually produce Because

994
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 5: last year there was no guys on the team. Basically

995
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 5: we're going to be part of their next competitive team.

996
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 5: This year, they're starting to move in younger guys who

997
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 5: they plan to actually be part of their futures. So

998
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 5: for these younger guys actually give them contributions at the

999
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 5: MLB level, it's a bit more difficult to project because

1000
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 5: we haven't seen them and they're coming up for the Miners,

1001
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 5: but by all accounts they're expected to be as good

1002
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 5: of a team as they were last year on paper,

1003
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 5: I just have no interest in betting they're over. But

1004
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 5: you know, compared to the public average projection out there,

1005
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 5: there's like a nine to win value on their over

1006
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 5: I think they're at fifty three and a half and

1007
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 5: the average public projection is that like six two and

1008
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 5: a half. No, thank you, I'm not interested. And if

1009
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:07,240
Speaker 5: you want to lay like minus ten thousand the White

1010
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 5: Sox to miss the playoffs, I actually think there's a

1011
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 5: slight edge on that this year, but you won't find

1012
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 5: me laying that money for seven months.

1013
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: Right before we came on the air, we were talking

1014
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: about how we're going to Chicago for our bet three

1015
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 1: six five event, and Simon was saying how he had

1016
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 1: looked for tickets for Cubs games and there weren't any

1017
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: because they're not home this weekend. But then he was

1018
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 1: looking at White Sox and immediately Matt Mitchell and I

1019
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: were like, no, you're not spending a second of your

1020
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:39,839
Speaker 1: time in Chicago in March going to a White Sox game.

1021
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 1: I'm glad we dissuaded him of that notion. As a

1022
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 1: reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 2: Whatever the moment, It's never.

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Speaker 1: his amazing, in depth, excellent, thoughtful analytical baseball analysis. Simon

1039
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network You two page Thursday, eleven

1041
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 1: am Eastern talking about the Sweet.

1042
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 2: Sixteen with Stucky.

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00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: Preview of what we'll be doing in Chicago at joson Weed,

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00:51:55,040 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 1: rsvped RSVP link in the episode description and downloads with Spotify,

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Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,

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Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say.

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Speaker 2: Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

1048
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 2: I Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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