Speaker 1: On April fourth, nineteen forty nine, the North Atlantic Treaty
Speaker 1: was signed by Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Italy, Portugal,
Speaker 1: the United Kingdom, Iceland, Canada, and the United States. This
Speaker 1: union of twelve nations became known as the North Atlantic
Speaker 1: Treaty Organization, or more simply, NATO.
Speaker 2: A lot has changed since that day, all the way
Speaker 2: back in April nineteen forty nine. Twelve nations soon became
Speaker 2: more and NATO continued to grow after the collapse of
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union. Decades later saw the rise of post
Speaker 2: Cold War tensions.
Speaker 3: Some breaking news out of the Balkans.
Speaker 4: Now, Montenegro's parliament has unanimously voted in favor of joining NATO.
Speaker 3: NATO officially welcomed North Macedonia as its thirtieth member on Thursday.
Speaker 2: Now, of course, a new threat in Europe has rallied NATO.
Speaker 3: Dimir Putin has just addressed the Russian people a moment ago,
Speaker 3: announcing what Putin called the start of a military special
Speaker 3: operation in his words, to demilitarize Ukraine.
Speaker 2: That's led other nations to move toward membership, and the
Speaker 2: Collective Security at promises NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg has
Speaker 2: said Ukraine will ultimately be welcomed into the alliance, a
Speaker 2: vote of confidence that when the war does finally end,
Speaker 2: Ukraine will still be standing as a nation.
Speaker 5: As late as last year, all alas agreed that Ukraine
Speaker 5: will become a member of this alliance and we are
Speaker 5: making concrete steps.
Speaker 2: The most recent countries to start down the road to
Speaker 2: membership are Finland and Sweden, and they both encountered resistance
Speaker 2: from a NATO member.
Speaker 3: Turkey has renewed its threat to keep Sweden and Finland
Speaker 3: out of NATO.
Speaker 2: The Turkish Finland was admitted to NATO just this past spring.
Speaker 2: Sweden's final approval, though, is hung up in negotiations, and
Speaker 2: we'll talk about why Turkey is still saying no.
Speaker 5: Turkey's president says Sweden should not expect support for its
Speaker 5: NATO membership bid after a far right politician burned a
Speaker 5: quran in Stockholm.
Speaker 2: How to break that impasse is just one of the
Speaker 2: weighty questions on the table when the leaders of NATO
Speaker 2: countries meet next week in Lithuania's capital, Vilnius. Bloomberg's Natalia
Speaker 2: Drosdiak and Brussels and Nicholas Rolander and Stockholm will be
Speaker 2: reporting from the summit, and I asked them to tell
Speaker 2: us what the leaders hope to accomplish there. I'm wes
Speaker 2: Kasova today on the big take NATO moves to reinforce
Speaker 2: its ranks Natalia. There's a lot for the NATO country
Speaker 2: members to discuss when they meet in Vilnius. Can you
Speaker 2: tell us who's going to be there.
Speaker 6: It's going to be the leaders of all thirty one
Speaker 6: NATO allies, US President Biden of course, but also his
Speaker 6: counterparts abroad, especially in Europe. But will also get visits
Speaker 6: from the Prime Minister of Sweden, which is a formal
Speaker 6: invitee to join NATO, as well as Ukrainian President Zelenski.
Speaker 6: And we're also expecting visits from the leaders of New Zealand, Australia,
Speaker 6: Japan and South Korea in Italia.
Speaker 2: What is at the top of the agenda for this meeting?
Speaker 6: So NATO leaders are gathering within the context of eighteen
Speaker 6: months of Russia's invasion in Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Ukraine's counter offensive has been launched.
Speaker 6: Ukrainian forces continue to advance, albeit slowly, on the flanks
Speaker 6: of Bakmood in the Donetsko blansts.
Speaker 4: The Russians have resumed their air strikes overnight against the
Speaker 4: capital Key. That's the first time in twelve days that
Speaker 4: they've been attacking.
Speaker 6: This is still key focus for the Alliance and Russia
Speaker 6: is the main threat for NATO.
Speaker 2: And in fact, here's Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's seeking. At
Speaker 2: last year's NATO summit in Madrid, he explained just how
Speaker 2: much the alliances relationship with Russia has changed since the
Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 5: And this is the new strategic concept. The current one
Speaker 5: was agreed in twenty ten, and this is very different
Speaker 5: compared to what we agreed back then. It makes clear
Speaker 5: that Russia poses the most significant and direct threat to
Speaker 5: our security. In the current concept, we state that Russia
Speaker 5: is a strategic partner.
Speaker 6: So with all that in mind, they are going to
Speaker 6: agree on a few key things. The first one will
Speaker 6: be a new defense spending goal. So people might have
Speaker 6: heard the two percent figure, which is that allies are
Speaker 6: supposed to spend two percent of their GDP on defense,
Speaker 6: and so that will be replaced by something very similar
Speaker 6: that says that Allies need to spend at least two
Speaker 6: percent of GDP and need to do so immediately, and
Speaker 6: they'll also sign off on new defense plans, which will
Speaker 6: basically detail how allies are supposed to defend specific geographic
Speaker 6: areas if they come under attack from Russia or from Terrace.
Speaker 6: Those are the two main threats the Alliance sees at
Speaker 6: the moment. Next, they'll also agree on a package of
Speaker 6: long term support for Ukraine, which will also include some
Speaker 6: sort of language on Ukraine's bid to join the Alliance.
Speaker 6: They'll also hope to make progress on Sweden's accession to
Speaker 6: join the Alliance, which is currently blocked by Turkey and Hungary.
Speaker 6: And finally, there's one more point. They will likely re
Speaker 6: extend Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's term as Chief of the
Speaker 6: Alliance Nicholas.
Speaker 2: Last year NATO leaders met in Madrid, and of course
Speaker 2: Ukraine was at the top of the agenda then too,
Speaker 2: But a lot has changed in the last year when
Speaker 2: you look sort of twelve months later, How has NATO's
Speaker 2: response to the war and Ukraine changed?
Speaker 7: So for NATO, so this really has glued the organization
Speaker 7: together and given it a purpose that it might not
Speaker 7: have had for many years. In the same way as
Speaker 7: this Russian aggression has provided, so it has in a
Speaker 7: way strengthened the Alliance, and it has also made it
Speaker 7: more attractive for countries like Sweden where I am, and Finland, who,
Speaker 7: as a direct consequence of the Russian full scale invasion
Speaker 7: of Ukraine, decided to leave their policies of neutrality or
Speaker 7: military non alignment behind and apply for membership in the organization.
Speaker 6: But I would say there's also some things that haven't changed,
Speaker 6: which is that NATO is still not offering direct military
Speaker 6: support to Ukraine. This is all happening from allies directly.
Speaker 6: The goal is really to prevent any escalation that ropes
Speaker 6: the Alliance into the conflict with Russia, so they continue
Speaker 6: to be really, really careful with that. And then I
Speaker 6: would say among individual allies, we've seen how taboos about
Speaker 6: sending Ukraine certain weapons have steadily fallen away. You know,
Speaker 6: there was initial fear of escalation to send tanks or
Speaker 6: long range missiles or even fighter jets, but now that's
Speaker 6: all basically on its way to Ukraine.
Speaker 3: The United Kingdom has confirmed that it is supplying Ukraine
Speaker 3: with multiple storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Speaker 4: The United States has agreed that the Allies can send
Speaker 4: F sixteen fighter jets to Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Also, at the end of the meeting last year, leaders
Speaker 2: from Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum. Nicholas,
Speaker 2: can you tell us what that is and what it said?
Speaker 7: It was a document that paved the way for Sweden
Speaker 7: and Finland gaining invitee status to NATO.
Speaker 8: I'm pleased to announce that we now have an agreement
Speaker 8: that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
Speaker 7: And it's a very carefully worded document that talks about
Speaker 7: what Turkey wants from Sweden and Finland in exchange for
Speaker 7: accepting them as inviteeen nations. It includes some concrete steps
Speaker 7: but also some more vague wording about the commitment to
Speaker 7: fight terrorism. Some of the stuff that it contains is
Speaker 7: things that the countries were doing anyway, such as tightening
Speaker 7: terrorism laws. But it also spells out that Sweden and Finland,
Speaker 7: as applicants to NATO can't have any arms embargo against Turkey,
Speaker 7: for example. That's the basis of the process that allowed
Speaker 7: Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden hopes at least will
Speaker 7: allow it to also ratify Sweden's application at some point
Speaker 7: in time. Obviously, with the Finland joining the Alliance, NATO
Speaker 7: has doubled its border with Russia. Finland has the law
Speaker 7: longest land border with the Russia of any European Union country.
Speaker 6: Having Finland and potentially Sweden as well in the Alliance
Speaker 6: is a big deal because these countries have had a
Speaker 6: long history of a close partnership with the Alliance. But
Speaker 6: also given their position, their geographic position just north of
Speaker 6: the Baltic Sea, they could also help reinforce Baltic nations
Speaker 6: in a crisis, which is in that area has long
Speaker 6: been seen as the alliance is weak spot in light
Speaker 6: of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and borders with Russia
Speaker 6: and Belarus. But you know, it also creates potential complications
Speaker 6: for the Alliance because the border is longer, that's more
Speaker 6: area for the Alliance to also defend.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: Another element of Finland and Sweden joining will also bolster
Speaker 6: the Alliance's presence in the Arctic, and this is becoming
Speaker 6: an increasingly strategic area. It's also where Russia and China
Speaker 6: are more and more active. So once Sweden joins, seven
Speaker 6: out of eight Arctic nations will be part of NATO.
Speaker 6: There's this question of territorial claims, which we've also seen
Speaker 6: with Russia and Ukraine. But then also in terms of
Speaker 6: Russia's activity, its military activity has really stepped up in
Speaker 6: recent years. There it remains the shortest distance for Russia
Speaker 6: to fire missiles to the US and that it would
Speaker 6: go over the Arctics. So it's a really critical area
Speaker 6: for the Alliance to monitor.
Speaker 2: After the break, why is it taking so long for
Speaker 2: NATO to open the door for Sweden.
Speaker 9: We welcome Finland as the news member of our alliance.
Speaker 9: We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time
Speaker 9: here at the NATO headquarters.
Speaker 2: That was NATO's Jen Stotberg speaking outside the NATO headquarters
Speaker 2: in Brussels last April, but Finland's bid to join the
Speaker 2: alliance was not at all assured Sweden. Finland's bid to
Speaker 2: join NATO has stalled as Turkey continues to block the
Speaker 2: two countries from joining the military alliance until the spring
Speaker 2: of this year. Finland's has overcome the final hurdle towards
Speaker 2: becoming a fully fledged member of NATO. Nicholas Finland and
Speaker 2: Sweden both applied for membership in NATO at the same time.
Speaker 2: Finland was granted membership in April, but Sweden's still trying
Speaker 2: to get its membership approved. What exactly is holding it up?
Speaker 7: In one word, it's Turkey and specifically the Turkey's president
Speaker 7: resip type Perdigon. It's been pretty clear since Sweden and
Speaker 7: Finland handed in their applications that Sweden was a bigger
Speaker 7: problem for Turkey than Finland was. The main issue that
Speaker 7: Turkey has with Sweden is that we have a large
Speaker 7: group of Kurtis immigrants in Sweden, somewhere above one hundred thousand.
Speaker 7: That's something that Finland doesn't have. And many of those
Speaker 7: Kurds in Sweden are politically active and opposed to Erdigan's government.
Speaker 7: Some of them are active in groups or sympathized with
Speaker 7: groups that Turkey considered terrorists. And there are also activities
Speaker 7: that are related to PKK, which is designated as a
Speaker 7: terrorist group across the European Union.
Speaker 2: In the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, it's a militant
Speaker 2: Kurdish separatist group.
Speaker 7: So Turkey has been adamant from when Sweden and Finland
Speaker 7: handed in their applications that both nations, but especially Sweden,
Speaker 7: has to take concrete measures to be more firm and
Speaker 7: to be more active on cracking down on what they
Speaker 7: see as activities of terrorists and terrorist sympathizers.
Speaker 2: And what is Sweden's response to this?
Speaker 7: Ben Sweden has tightened laws on terrorism. That was a
Speaker 7: process that was already under way, but it has since
Speaker 7: been completed, and Sweden has also, in accordance with the memorandum,
Speaker 7: increased cooperation between law enforcement in Turkey and Sweden. A
Speaker 7: lot of this is behind closed doors and hard to
Speaker 7: gauge exactly what has been done what would have been
Speaker 7: done anyway, is a direct result of this spat with Turkey,
Speaker 7: but I think it's fair to say that there is
Speaker 7: an increasing awareness and an increased focus on the activities
Speaker 7: of groups like the PKK in Sweden from law enforcement.
Speaker 2: And has this new anti terrorism law that Sweden adopted
Speaker 2: satisfied Turkey's demands.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't say that Turkey still feels that there's more
Speaker 7: to be done. They have additional demands, some of which
Speaker 7: are hard to square with the rule of law in Sweden.
Speaker 7: For example, there's been talk about a list of one
Speaker 7: hundred and thirty people that Turkey wants extradited from Sweden.
Speaker 7: But anyway, in Sweden, the process for extraditions is handled
Speaker 7: through the court system, and the government can't overrule Supreme
Speaker 7: Court decisions on extraditions, so Turkey's demands for some of
Speaker 7: those extraditions have been declined on various grounds, including the
Speaker 7: risk of political persecution. And the most recent complaints from
Speaker 7: the Turkish government has been about demonstrations in Sweden in
Speaker 7: the capital of Stockholm, where Kurdish groups have flown the
Speaker 7: PKK flag in demonstrations, which is obviously very provocative, deliberately
Speaker 7: so against Turkey, and Turkey would like to see Sweden
Speaker 7: ban all expressions of sympathy for those groups. That very
Speaker 7: hard with the Swedish laws on freedom of expression. So
Speaker 7: while the new laws on terrorism ban participation in terrorist
Speaker 7: groups and activities to support terrorist groups, it's not technically
Speaker 7: illegal just to express your sympathy for those groups.
Speaker 2: Nicholas, Why is it such a big deal for Sweden
Speaker 2: to join NATO? Why would that be such a significant change.
Speaker 7: It was already a significant, huge shift when Sweden decided
Speaker 7: to apply for membership in NATO.
Speaker 10: Sweden has officially confirmed it will abandon its two century
Speaker 10: long policy of military neutrality and will apply for NATO
Speaker 10: membership over national security fears.
Speaker 6: I mean, when Sweden joins, it's going to be a
Speaker 6: major shift because the entire region will become NATO territory
Speaker 6: and it's going to make it much harder for Russia
Speaker 6: to access its own territory in the exclave of Cliningrad.
Speaker 2: And can you tell us about this exclave of Kaliningrad
Speaker 2: exactly what is it and why is it so important.
Speaker 6: It's like a little chunk of territory that's wedged between
Speaker 6: Lithuania and Poland right on the coast of the Baltic Sea,
Speaker 6: and it is one of the most critical areas for
Speaker 6: the Alliance because right between Kaliningrad and Belarus. In order
Speaker 6: to reinforce the Baltic Nations, allies would need to be
Speaker 6: able to cut through the Polish border to Lithuania, which
Speaker 6: is right in between Kaliningrad and Belarus. And that's a
Speaker 6: very vulnerable area because it could be cut off in
Speaker 6: a conflict. But if you have Sweden and Finland part
Speaker 6: of the Alliance reinforcing that region and a conflict would
Speaker 6: become much easier.
Speaker 2: Nicholas, you talked about Sweden's history as a neutral country
Speaker 2: and what a big deal it was to even apply
Speaker 2: for NATO members What do people in Sweden think about it?
Speaker 2: Is there a lot of public support for the nation
Speaker 2: joining NATA?
Speaker 7: Yes, there is. Since the full scale invasion of Ukraine,
Speaker 7: public opinion has really shifted rapidly. There has never been
Speaker 7: a majority in favor of joining NATO until that happened.
Speaker 7: But when people saw Russia was willing and capable of
Speaker 7: doing this sort of the calculus shifted really rapidly. There
Speaker 7: are two parties in Parliament that didn't want to join NATO,
Speaker 7: one that is actively opposed to it, and there is
Speaker 7: a vocal minority who still don't think it's a good
Speaker 7: idea for various reasons. The latest poll I've seen has
Speaker 7: support of Sweden joining NATO at about seventy percent.
Speaker 2: When we return, what does Turkey really hope to gain
Speaker 2: by holding back Sweden's membership Natalia? So we're hearing all
Speaker 2: about Turkey's demands to stop holding up Sweden's application to
Speaker 2: join NATO and Turkey had similar complaints against Finland. How
Speaker 2: were they eventually resolved so Finland was allowed to join?
Speaker 9: Well?
Speaker 6: I think one important point to note about Finland and
Speaker 6: why its process has been so different from Sweden's is
Speaker 6: that you know, at least from what I hear from
Speaker 6: diplomats anyways, that Finland did a lot of legwork in
Speaker 6: advance and proactively reached out to the Turkish government. They
Speaker 6: were more aware of potential hurdles that could have come
Speaker 6: up from that and were able to overcome them more
Speaker 6: easily with the Turkish government.
Speaker 2: Are there any other NATO countries who are opposed or
Speaker 2: blocking Sweden's application or is it only Turkey?
Speaker 6: It's Hungry as well and they came in last minute
Speaker 6: also blocking Finland's application. Twenty eight of the Military Alliances
Speaker 6: thirty members have ratified the two countries succession, leaving only
Speaker 6: Turkey and Hungary as holdouts. But they turned around when
Speaker 6: Turkey started to move. So the expectation is that Hungary
Speaker 6: will also come on board once Turkey gives the green
Speaker 6: light for Sweden.
Speaker 2: And why is Hungary saying that they're blocking the application
Speaker 2: right now?
Speaker 7: There has been some comments from Hungarian politicians expressing discontent
Speaker 7: with comments by Swedish politicians who have been critical of
Speaker 7: the development in Hungary under Victor Orban when it comes
Speaker 7: to the rule of law and freedom of expression, and
Speaker 7: these are all well known controversies around Orban's government that
Speaker 7: many European countries have criticized on exactly the same point.
Speaker 6: The context is also that the EU and Hungary are
Speaker 6: locked in this fight about financing precisely overrule of law issues.
Speaker 6: So while the EU is a totally separate institution, many
Speaker 6: of its members are part of NATO, and Sweden actually
Speaker 6: currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU. Some diplomats
Speaker 6: are drawing links there that Hungary may be trying to
Speaker 6: gain leverage at the EU over this.
Speaker 2: So how might this impass ultimately be broken? Are other
Speaker 2: NATO countries putting pressure on Turkey to change their position
Speaker 2: and allow Sweden in.
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a lot of negotiating going on between Sweden
Speaker 6: and Turkey and NATO staff as well, but other allies
Speaker 6: are also getting involved. They're having frequent conversations with their
Speaker 6: Turkish counterparts to try and convince them that it's important
Speaker 6: for the alliance's security to have Sweden join as soon
Speaker 6: as possible. And then from the US perspective, the US
Speaker 6: holds a key point of leverage because the Congress is
Speaker 6: still not signed off on F sixteen's that Turkey wants.
Speaker 4: Turkey's president Rejeptae Eduwan will meet with President Biden to
Speaker 4: push for the purchase of new AT sixteen warplanes that
Speaker 4: you will talk.
Speaker 6: So that is something that is hanging in the balance
Speaker 6: as Turkey holds out its decision on Sweden's accession.
Speaker 7: From the Swedish side, politicians are focused on what Sweden
Speaker 7: can do and typically declined to speculate too much on
Speaker 7: what other allies can bring to the table. There's always
Speaker 7: been that speculation about sixteen's for example, but it's hard
Speaker 7: to know how important that will be and whether that
Speaker 7: will be the end all of the impasse in Natalia.
Speaker 2: Do you think ultimately Turkey will relent and Sweden will
Speaker 2: become a NATO member?
Speaker 6: I do, and I think I think other allies do
Speaker 6: as well, even as frustrated as many of them are
Speaker 6: that this process is taking much longer than they had initially.
Speaker 6: You know, they had initially hoped to sign off on
Speaker 6: both Sweden and Finland's memberships within a matter of days.
Speaker 6: Now we're talking months, if not more than a year.
Speaker 6: The question is whether that will happen before the Vilnius summit.
Speaker 6: It looks really unlikely at this point that this will
Speaker 6: be done and dusted by then, but they're hoping at
Speaker 6: least for some sort of signal or progress from the
Speaker 6: Turkish government that this will move ahead and then they
Speaker 6: could potentially complete ratification in the parliament later this fall.
Speaker 2: Nicholas, do you think that at this meeting in Vilnius
Speaker 2: there will be sort of an announcement that it's moving
Speaker 2: forward or is it going to take longer than that.
Speaker 7: That is an idea that has been floated. It should
Speaker 7: be seeing us the least preferable option of the good
Speaker 7: options for Sweden, because Swedish government officials still say that
Speaker 7: they are looking full ratification on a membership by Vilnius,
Speaker 7: but the idea of some sort of declaration of a
Speaker 7: tent from Turkey has been floated, including by Jens Stoltenberg,
Speaker 7: and that's probably the more realistic hope at this point.
Speaker 2: Natalia, Nicholas, both of you are going to be in
Speaker 2: Vilainious at this meeting. We've been talking about all the
Speaker 2: different things that are going to happen there. But what
Speaker 2: are you especially watching for.
Speaker 6: You know, in addition to Sweden, I will also be
Speaker 6: closely following the discussions about Ukraine's membership because this is
Speaker 6: one of the most contentious points. It really comes down
Speaker 6: to language for two three sentences maybe, but they're really
Speaker 6: struggling to try and find a way to give Ukraine
Speaker 6: more perspective about its membership to the Alliance without going
Speaker 6: too far and without really starting the process because it's
Speaker 6: something they just can't do while while it's still at war.
Speaker 6: They're really in a bind over that, and Ukrainian President
Speaker 6: Zelensky has said that he's put a lot of pressure
Speaker 6: the last few months on allies to come up with
Speaker 6: something that goes beyond promises that they've made for the
Speaker 6: past fifteen years.
Speaker 7: For me, the Swedish application on the Turkish gratification is
Speaker 7: the big issue obviously, and it may very well come
Speaker 7: down to the wire as it did last year in
Speaker 7: Madrid when Sweden and Finland was quanted in my TA
Speaker 7: status at the summit.
Speaker 2: Nicholas Natalia, thanks so much for coming on the show.
Speaker 2: Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at the
Speaker 2: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
Speaker 2: or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you.
Speaker 2: Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take
Speaker 2: is Vicky Vergalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Frederica
Speaker 2: Romanello is our producer. Our associate producer is Zeneb sidiki Ji.
Speaker 2: The Garcia is our in engineer. Our original music was
Speaker 2: composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm west Kosova. We'll be back
Speaker 2: tomorrow with another Big Take