1
00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,880
Speaker 1: On April fourth, nineteen forty nine, the North Atlantic Treaty

2
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: was signed by Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Italy, Portugal,

3
00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: the United Kingdom, Iceland, Canada, and the United States. This

4
00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,160
Speaker 1: union of twelve nations became known as the North Atlantic

5
00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,360
Speaker 1: Treaty Organization, or more simply, NATO.

6
00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,120
Speaker 2: A lot has changed since that day, all the way

7
00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:35,560
Speaker 2: back in April nineteen forty nine. Twelve nations soon became

8
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,000
Speaker 2: more and NATO continued to grow after the collapse of

9
00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,760
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union. Decades later saw the rise of post

10
00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:43,879
Speaker 2: Cold War tensions.

11
00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,199
Speaker 3: Some breaking news out of the Balkans.

12
00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:51,080
Speaker 4: Now, Montenegro's parliament has unanimously voted in favor of joining NATO.

13
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:55,600
Speaker 3: NATO officially welcomed North Macedonia as its thirtieth member on Thursday.

14
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,280
Speaker 2: Now, of course, a new threat in Europe has rallied NATO.

15
00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,560
Speaker 3: Dimir Putin has just addressed the Russian people a moment ago,

16
00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,679
Speaker 3: announcing what Putin called the start of a military special

17
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,840
Speaker 3: operation in his words, to demilitarize Ukraine.

18
00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 2: That's led other nations to move toward membership, and the

19
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:19,720
Speaker 2: Collective Security at promises NATO Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg has

20
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,560
Speaker 2: said Ukraine will ultimately be welcomed into the alliance, a

21
00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,319
Speaker 2: vote of confidence that when the war does finally end,

22
00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,319
Speaker 2: Ukraine will still be standing as a nation.

23
00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 5: As late as last year, all alas agreed that Ukraine

24
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,600
Speaker 5: will become a member of this alliance and we are

25
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:36,800
Speaker 5: making concrete steps.

26
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 2: The most recent countries to start down the road to

27
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,280
Speaker 2: membership are Finland and Sweden, and they both encountered resistance

28
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:45,559
Speaker 2: from a NATO member.

29
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 3: Turkey has renewed its threat to keep Sweden and Finland

30
00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:49,520
Speaker 3: out of NATO.

31
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 2: The Turkish Finland was admitted to NATO just this past spring.

32
00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,200
Speaker 2: Sweden's final approval, though, is hung up in negotiations, and

33
00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 2: we'll talk about why Turkey is still saying no.

34
00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,600
Speaker 5: Turkey's president says Sweden should not expect support for its

35
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 5: NATO membership bid after a far right politician burned a

36
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 5: quran in Stockholm.

37
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 2: How to break that impasse is just one of the

38
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,320
Speaker 2: weighty questions on the table when the leaders of NATO

39
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:19,960
Speaker 2: countries meet next week in Lithuania's capital, Vilnius. Bloomberg's Natalia

40
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,320
Speaker 2: Drosdiak and Brussels and Nicholas Rolander and Stockholm will be

41
00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 2: reporting from the summit, and I asked them to tell

42
00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 2: us what the leaders hope to accomplish there. I'm wes

43
00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,800
Speaker 2: Kasova today on the big take NATO moves to reinforce

44
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:51,400
Speaker 2: its ranks Natalia. There's a lot for the NATO country

45
00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,800
Speaker 2: members to discuss when they meet in Vilnius. Can you

46
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 2: tell us who's going to be there.

47
00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 6: It's going to be the leaders of all thirty one

48
00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 6: NATO allies, US President Biden of course, but also his

49
00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:08,480
Speaker 6: counterparts abroad, especially in Europe. But will also get visits

50
00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,280
Speaker 6: from the Prime Minister of Sweden, which is a formal

51
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:15,960
Speaker 6: invitee to join NATO, as well as Ukrainian President Zelenski.

52
00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 6: And we're also expecting visits from the leaders of New Zealand, Australia,

53
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,840
Speaker 6: Japan and South Korea in Italia.

54
00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,239
Speaker 2: What is at the top of the agenda for this meeting?

55
00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:32,359
Speaker 6: So NATO leaders are gathering within the context of eighteen

56
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,040
Speaker 6: months of Russia's invasion in Ukraine.

57
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,920
Speaker 4: Ukraine's counter offensive has been launched.

58
00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:42,200
Speaker 6: Ukrainian forces continue to advance, albeit slowly, on the flanks

59
00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,120
Speaker 6: of Bakmood in the Donetsko blansts.

60
00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 4: The Russians have resumed their air strikes overnight against the

61
00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:48,800
Speaker 4: capital Key. That's the first time in twelve days that

62
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 4: they've been attacking.

63
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,120
Speaker 6: This is still key focus for the Alliance and Russia

64
00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:55,840
Speaker 6: is the main threat for NATO.

65
00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 2: And in fact, here's Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's seeking. At

66
00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:05,040
Speaker 2: last year's NATO summit in Madrid, he explained just how

67
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,760
Speaker 2: much the alliances relationship with Russia has changed since the

68
00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:09,960
Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine.

69
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,320
Speaker 5: And this is the new strategic concept. The current one

70
00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,280
Speaker 5: was agreed in twenty ten, and this is very different

71
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,839
Speaker 5: compared to what we agreed back then. It makes clear

72
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:27,640
Speaker 5: that Russia poses the most significant and direct threat to

73
00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,839
Speaker 5: our security. In the current concept, we state that Russia

74
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 5: is a strategic partner.

75
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 6: So with all that in mind, they are going to

76
00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,719
Speaker 6: agree on a few key things. The first one will

77
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,640
Speaker 6: be a new defense spending goal. So people might have

78
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,599
Speaker 6: heard the two percent figure, which is that allies are

79
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,600
Speaker 6: supposed to spend two percent of their GDP on defense,

80
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 6: and so that will be replaced by something very similar

81
00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,320
Speaker 6: that says that Allies need to spend at least two

82
00:04:55,400 --> 00:05:00,120
Speaker 6: percent of GDP and need to do so immediately, and

83
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 6: they'll also sign off on new defense plans, which will

84
00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 6: basically detail how allies are supposed to defend specific geographic

85
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,520
Speaker 6: areas if they come under attack from Russia or from Terrace.

86
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,480
Speaker 6: Those are the two main threats the Alliance sees at

87
00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,680
Speaker 6: the moment. Next, they'll also agree on a package of

88
00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,160
Speaker 6: long term support for Ukraine, which will also include some

89
00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 6: sort of language on Ukraine's bid to join the Alliance.

90
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,080
Speaker 6: They'll also hope to make progress on Sweden's accession to

91
00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,400
Speaker 6: join the Alliance, which is currently blocked by Turkey and Hungary.

92
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,200
Speaker 6: And finally, there's one more point. They will likely re

93
00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:39,800
Speaker 6: extend Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg's term as Chief of the

94
00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,920
Speaker 6: Alliance Nicholas.

95
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:46,440
Speaker 2: Last year NATO leaders met in Madrid, and of course

96
00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,560
Speaker 2: Ukraine was at the top of the agenda then too,

97
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:51,960
Speaker 2: But a lot has changed in the last year when

98
00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,520
Speaker 2: you look sort of twelve months later, How has NATO's

99
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,760
Speaker 2: response to the war and Ukraine changed?

100
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:03,160
Speaker 7: So for NATO, so this really has glued the organization

101
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,320
Speaker 7: together and given it a purpose that it might not

102
00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,719
Speaker 7: have had for many years. In the same way as

103
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,440
Speaker 7: this Russian aggression has provided, so it has in a

104
00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 7: way strengthened the Alliance, and it has also made it

105
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:23,279
Speaker 7: more attractive for countries like Sweden where I am, and Finland, who,

106
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,040
Speaker 7: as a direct consequence of the Russian full scale invasion

107
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:32,880
Speaker 7: of Ukraine, decided to leave their policies of neutrality or

108
00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:37,880
Speaker 7: military non alignment behind and apply for membership in the organization.

109
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,400
Speaker 6: But I would say there's also some things that haven't changed,

110
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,479
Speaker 6: which is that NATO is still not offering direct military

111
00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,120
Speaker 6: support to Ukraine. This is all happening from allies directly.

112
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 6: The goal is really to prevent any escalation that ropes

113
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,839
Speaker 6: the Alliance into the conflict with Russia, so they continue

114
00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,200
Speaker 6: to be really, really careful with that. And then I

115
00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,640
Speaker 6: would say among individual allies, we've seen how taboos about

116
00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,479
Speaker 6: sending Ukraine certain weapons have steadily fallen away. You know,

117
00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 6: there was initial fear of escalation to send tanks or

118
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,440
Speaker 6: long range missiles or even fighter jets, but now that's

119
00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,240
Speaker 6: all basically on its way to Ukraine.

120
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 3: The United Kingdom has confirmed that it is supplying Ukraine

121
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 3: with multiple storm Shadow cruise missiles.

122
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,200
Speaker 4: The United States has agreed that the Allies can send

123
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,560
Speaker 4: F sixteen fighter jets to Ukraine.

124
00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,560
Speaker 2: Also, at the end of the meeting last year, leaders

125
00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:40,560
Speaker 2: from Turkey, Finland and Sweden signed a trilateral memorandum. Nicholas,

126
00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,600
Speaker 2: can you tell us what that is and what it said?

127
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,360
Speaker 7: It was a document that paved the way for Sweden

128
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 7: and Finland gaining invitee status to NATO.

129
00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,840
Speaker 8: I'm pleased to announce that we now have an agreement

130
00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 8: that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

131
00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 7: And it's a very carefully worded document that talks about

132
00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 7: what Turkey wants from Sweden and Finland in exchange for

133
00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 7: accepting them as inviteeen nations. It includes some concrete steps

134
00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,000
Speaker 7: but also some more vague wording about the commitment to

135
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:23,440
Speaker 7: fight terrorism. Some of the stuff that it contains is

136
00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 7: things that the countries were doing anyway, such as tightening

137
00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 7: terrorism laws. But it also spells out that Sweden and Finland,

138
00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:38,199
Speaker 7: as applicants to NATO can't have any arms embargo against Turkey,

139
00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:42,360
Speaker 7: for example. That's the basis of the process that allowed

140
00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:47,040
Speaker 7: Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden hopes at least will

141
00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,760
Speaker 7: allow it to also ratify Sweden's application at some point

142
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 7: in time. Obviously, with the Finland joining the Alliance, NATO

143
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 7: has doubled its border with Russia. Finland has the law

144
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 7: longest land border with the Russia of any European Union country.

145
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,760
Speaker 6: Having Finland and potentially Sweden as well in the Alliance

146
00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,400
Speaker 6: is a big deal because these countries have had a

147
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 6: long history of a close partnership with the Alliance. But

148
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,559
Speaker 6: also given their position, their geographic position just north of

149
00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,320
Speaker 6: the Baltic Sea, they could also help reinforce Baltic nations

150
00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 6: in a crisis, which is in that area has long

151
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 6: been seen as the alliance is weak spot in light

152
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,160
Speaker 6: of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and borders with Russia

153
00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:38,079
Speaker 6: and Belarus. But you know, it also creates potential complications

154
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,560
Speaker 6: for the Alliance because the border is longer, that's more

155
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,240
Speaker 6: area for the Alliance to also defend.

156
00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 1: You know.

157
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:49,600
Speaker 6: Another element of Finland and Sweden joining will also bolster

158
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 6: the Alliance's presence in the Arctic, and this is becoming

159
00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:58,240
Speaker 6: an increasingly strategic area. It's also where Russia and China

160
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 6: are more and more active. So once Sweden joins, seven

161
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,079
Speaker 6: out of eight Arctic nations will be part of NATO.

162
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,199
Speaker 6: There's this question of territorial claims, which we've also seen

163
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 6: with Russia and Ukraine. But then also in terms of

164
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:19,000
Speaker 6: Russia's activity, its military activity has really stepped up in

165
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,520
Speaker 6: recent years. There it remains the shortest distance for Russia

166
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,760
Speaker 6: to fire missiles to the US and that it would

167
00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,720
Speaker 6: go over the Arctics. So it's a really critical area

168
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:31,199
Speaker 6: for the Alliance to monitor.

169
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,560
Speaker 2: After the break, why is it taking so long for

170
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,040
Speaker 2: NATO to open the door for Sweden.

171
00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:49,719
Speaker 9: We welcome Finland as the news member of our alliance.

172
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,560
Speaker 9: We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time

173
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:57,679
Speaker 9: here at the NATO headquarters.

174
00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,640
Speaker 2: That was NATO's Jen Stotberg speaking outside the NATO headquarters

175
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,320
Speaker 2: in Brussels last April, but Finland's bid to join the

176
00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 2: alliance was not at all assured Sweden. Finland's bid to

177
00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,959
Speaker 2: join NATO has stalled as Turkey continues to block the

178
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:16,080
Speaker 2: two countries from joining the military alliance until the spring

179
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 2: of this year. Finland's has overcome the final hurdle towards

180
00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 2: becoming a fully fledged member of NATO. Nicholas Finland and

181
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,040
Speaker 2: Sweden both applied for membership in NATO at the same time.

182
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,800
Speaker 2: Finland was granted membership in April, but Sweden's still trying

183
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 2: to get its membership approved. What exactly is holding it up?

184
00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,040
Speaker 7: In one word, it's Turkey and specifically the Turkey's president

185
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:45,640
Speaker 7: resip type Perdigon. It's been pretty clear since Sweden and

186
00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:51,200
Speaker 7: Finland handed in their applications that Sweden was a bigger

187
00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,480
Speaker 7: problem for Turkey than Finland was. The main issue that

188
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,400
Speaker 7: Turkey has with Sweden is that we have a large

189
00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:03,959
Speaker 7: group of Kurtis immigrants in Sweden, somewhere above one hundred thousand.

190
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,760
Speaker 7: That's something that Finland doesn't have. And many of those

191
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:13,480
Speaker 7: Kurds in Sweden are politically active and opposed to Erdigan's government.

192
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,840
Speaker 7: Some of them are active in groups or sympathized with

193
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:22,760
Speaker 7: groups that Turkey considered terrorists. And there are also activities

194
00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,760
Speaker 7: that are related to PKK, which is designated as a

195
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,320
Speaker 7: terrorist group across the European Union.

196
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,640
Speaker 2: In the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, it's a militant

197
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 2: Kurdish separatist group.

198
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 7: So Turkey has been adamant from when Sweden and Finland

199
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 7: handed in their applications that both nations, but especially Sweden,

200
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:48,640
Speaker 7: has to take concrete measures to be more firm and

201
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,920
Speaker 7: to be more active on cracking down on what they

202
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:55,920
Speaker 7: see as activities of terrorists and terrorist sympathizers.

203
00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,040
Speaker 2: And what is Sweden's response to this?

204
00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 7: Ben Sweden has tightened laws on terrorism. That was a

205
00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 7: process that was already under way, but it has since

206
00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:14,559
Speaker 7: been completed, and Sweden has also, in accordance with the memorandum,

207
00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:20,920
Speaker 7: increased cooperation between law enforcement in Turkey and Sweden. A

208
00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,800
Speaker 7: lot of this is behind closed doors and hard to

209
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,839
Speaker 7: gauge exactly what has been done what would have been

210
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:31,840
Speaker 7: done anyway, is a direct result of this spat with Turkey,

211
00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 7: but I think it's fair to say that there is

212
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,840
Speaker 7: an increasing awareness and an increased focus on the activities

213
00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,120
Speaker 7: of groups like the PKK in Sweden from law enforcement.

214
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:48,679
Speaker 2: And has this new anti terrorism law that Sweden adopted

215
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 2: satisfied Turkey's demands.

216
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,560
Speaker 7: I wouldn't say that Turkey still feels that there's more

217
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:59,360
Speaker 7: to be done. They have additional demands, some of which

218
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 7: are hard to square with the rule of law in Sweden.

219
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,640
Speaker 7: For example, there's been talk about a list of one

220
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:10,360
Speaker 7: hundred and thirty people that Turkey wants extradited from Sweden.

221
00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 7: But anyway, in Sweden, the process for extraditions is handled

222
00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,680
Speaker 7: through the court system, and the government can't overrule Supreme

223
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:24,080
Speaker 7: Court decisions on extraditions, so Turkey's demands for some of

224
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 7: those extraditions have been declined on various grounds, including the

225
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:34,200
Speaker 7: risk of political persecution. And the most recent complaints from

226
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 7: the Turkish government has been about demonstrations in Sweden in

227
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 7: the capital of Stockholm, where Kurdish groups have flown the

228
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:50,400
Speaker 7: PKK flag in demonstrations, which is obviously very provocative, deliberately

229
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 7: so against Turkey, and Turkey would like to see Sweden

230
00:14:55,440 --> 00:15:00,760
Speaker 7: ban all expressions of sympathy for those groups. That very

231
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,400
Speaker 7: hard with the Swedish laws on freedom of expression. So

232
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 7: while the new laws on terrorism ban participation in terrorist

233
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 7: groups and activities to support terrorist groups, it's not technically

234
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,880
Speaker 7: illegal just to express your sympathy for those groups.

235
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,480
Speaker 2: Nicholas, Why is it such a big deal for Sweden

236
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 2: to join NATO? Why would that be such a significant change.

237
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 7: It was already a significant, huge shift when Sweden decided

238
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 7: to apply for membership in NATO.

239
00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 10: Sweden has officially confirmed it will abandon its two century

240
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 10: long policy of military neutrality and will apply for NATO

241
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 10: membership over national security fears.

242
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,440
Speaker 6: I mean, when Sweden joins, it's going to be a

243
00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:51,680
Speaker 6: major shift because the entire region will become NATO territory

244
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 6: and it's going to make it much harder for Russia

245
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 6: to access its own territory in the exclave of Cliningrad.

246
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,720
Speaker 2: And can you tell us about this exclave of Kaliningrad

247
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 2: exactly what is it and why is it so important.

248
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 6: It's like a little chunk of territory that's wedged between

249
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 6: Lithuania and Poland right on the coast of the Baltic Sea,

250
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 6: and it is one of the most critical areas for

251
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 6: the Alliance because right between Kaliningrad and Belarus. In order

252
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 6: to reinforce the Baltic Nations, allies would need to be

253
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 6: able to cut through the Polish border to Lithuania, which

254
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 6: is right in between Kaliningrad and Belarus. And that's a

255
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 6: very vulnerable area because it could be cut off in

256
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 6: a conflict. But if you have Sweden and Finland part

257
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 6: of the Alliance reinforcing that region and a conflict would

258
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 6: become much easier.

259
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 2: Nicholas, you talked about Sweden's history as a neutral country

260
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 2: and what a big deal it was to even apply

261
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 2: for NATO members What do people in Sweden think about it?

262
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 2: Is there a lot of public support for the nation

263
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 2: joining NATA?

264
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:12,120
Speaker 7: Yes, there is. Since the full scale invasion of Ukraine,

265
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 7: public opinion has really shifted rapidly. There has never been

266
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:20,360
Speaker 7: a majority in favor of joining NATO until that happened.

267
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:25,439
Speaker 7: But when people saw Russia was willing and capable of

268
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 7: doing this sort of the calculus shifted really rapidly. There

269
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 7: are two parties in Parliament that didn't want to join NATO,

270
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,400
Speaker 7: one that is actively opposed to it, and there is

271
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 7: a vocal minority who still don't think it's a good

272
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:46,440
Speaker 7: idea for various reasons. The latest poll I've seen has

273
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,119
Speaker 7: support of Sweden joining NATO at about seventy percent.

274
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 2: When we return, what does Turkey really hope to gain

275
00:17:54,880 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 2: by holding back Sweden's membership Natalia? So we're hearing all

276
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 2: about Turkey's demands to stop holding up Sweden's application to

277
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 2: join NATO and Turkey had similar complaints against Finland. How

278
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 2: were they eventually resolved so Finland was allowed to join?

279
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:22,400
Speaker 9: Well?

280
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 6: I think one important point to note about Finland and

281
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 6: why its process has been so different from Sweden's is

282
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 6: that you know, at least from what I hear from

283
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 6: diplomats anyways, that Finland did a lot of legwork in

284
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 6: advance and proactively reached out to the Turkish government. They

285
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,400
Speaker 6: were more aware of potential hurdles that could have come

286
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 6: up from that and were able to overcome them more

287
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,160
Speaker 6: easily with the Turkish government.

288
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 2: Are there any other NATO countries who are opposed or

289
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,120
Speaker 2: blocking Sweden's application or is it only Turkey?

290
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 6: It's Hungry as well and they came in last minute

291
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 6: also blocking Finland's application. Twenty eight of the Military Alliances

292
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 6: thirty members have ratified the two countries succession, leaving only

293
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 6: Turkey and Hungary as holdouts. But they turned around when

294
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 6: Turkey started to move. So the expectation is that Hungary

295
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 6: will also come on board once Turkey gives the green

296
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:21,680
Speaker 6: light for Sweden.

297
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 2: And why is Hungary saying that they're blocking the application

298
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 2: right now?

299
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 7: There has been some comments from Hungarian politicians expressing discontent

300
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 7: with comments by Swedish politicians who have been critical of

301
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 7: the development in Hungary under Victor Orban when it comes

302
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 7: to the rule of law and freedom of expression, and

303
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 7: these are all well known controversies around Orban's government that

304
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 7: many European countries have criticized on exactly the same point.

305
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 6: The context is also that the EU and Hungary are

306
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 6: locked in this fight about financing precisely overrule of law issues.

307
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 6: So while the EU is a totally separate institution, many

308
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 6: of its members are part of NATO, and Sweden actually

309
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 6: currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU. Some diplomats

310
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 6: are drawing links there that Hungary may be trying to

311
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 6: gain leverage at the EU over this.

312
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:26,640
Speaker 2: So how might this impass ultimately be broken? Are other

313
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 2: NATO countries putting pressure on Turkey to change their position

314
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 2: and allow Sweden in.

315
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a lot of negotiating going on between Sweden

316
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 6: and Turkey and NATO staff as well, but other allies

317
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 6: are also getting involved. They're having frequent conversations with their

318
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 6: Turkish counterparts to try and convince them that it's important

319
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 6: for the alliance's security to have Sweden join as soon

320
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 6: as possible. And then from the US perspective, the US

321
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 6: holds a key point of leverage because the Congress is

322
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 6: still not signed off on F sixteen's that Turkey wants.

323
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 4: Turkey's president Rejeptae Eduwan will meet with President Biden to

324
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 4: push for the purchase of new AT sixteen warplanes that

325
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 4: you will talk.

326
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 6: So that is something that is hanging in the balance

327
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 6: as Turkey holds out its decision on Sweden's accession.

328
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 7: From the Swedish side, politicians are focused on what Sweden

329
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 7: can do and typically declined to speculate too much on

330
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 7: what other allies can bring to the table. There's always

331
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 7: been that speculation about sixteen's for example, but it's hard

332
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 7: to know how important that will be and whether that

333
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 7: will be the end all of the impasse in Natalia.

334
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,680
Speaker 2: Do you think ultimately Turkey will relent and Sweden will

335
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 2: become a NATO member?

336
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 6: I do, and I think I think other allies do

337
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 6: as well, even as frustrated as many of them are

338
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 6: that this process is taking much longer than they had initially.

339
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 6: You know, they had initially hoped to sign off on

340
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 6: both Sweden and Finland's memberships within a matter of days.

341
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 6: Now we're talking months, if not more than a year.

342
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 6: The question is whether that will happen before the Vilnius summit.

343
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 6: It looks really unlikely at this point that this will

344
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 6: be done and dusted by then, but they're hoping at

345
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 6: least for some sort of signal or progress from the

346
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 6: Turkish government that this will move ahead and then they

347
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 6: could potentially complete ratification in the parliament later this fall.

348
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: Nicholas, do you think that at this meeting in Vilnius

349
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: there will be sort of an announcement that it's moving

350
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 2: forward or is it going to take longer than that.

351
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 7: That is an idea that has been floated. It should

352
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 7: be seeing us the least preferable option of the good

353
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 7: options for Sweden, because Swedish government officials still say that

354
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 7: they are looking full ratification on a membership by Vilnius,

355
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 7: but the idea of some sort of declaration of a

356
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 7: tent from Turkey has been floated, including by Jens Stoltenberg,

357
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 7: and that's probably the more realistic hope at this point.

358
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 2: Natalia, Nicholas, both of you are going to be in

359
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: Vilainious at this meeting. We've been talking about all the

360
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 2: different things that are going to happen there. But what

361
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 2: are you especially watching for.

362
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 6: You know, in addition to Sweden, I will also be

363
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 6: closely following the discussions about Ukraine's membership because this is

364
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 6: one of the most contentious points. It really comes down

365
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 6: to language for two three sentences maybe, but they're really

366
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 6: struggling to try and find a way to give Ukraine

367
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 6: more perspective about its membership to the Alliance without going

368
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 6: too far and without really starting the process because it's

369
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 6: something they just can't do while while it's still at war.

370
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 6: They're really in a bind over that, and Ukrainian President

371
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 6: Zelensky has said that he's put a lot of pressure

372
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 6: the last few months on allies to come up with

373
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 6: something that goes beyond promises that they've made for the

374
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 6: past fifteen years.

375
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 7: For me, the Swedish application on the Turkish gratification is

376
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 7: the big issue obviously, and it may very well come

377
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 7: down to the wire as it did last year in

378
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 7: Madrid when Sweden and Finland was quanted in my TA

379
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 7: status at the summit.

380
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 2: Nicholas Natalia, thanks so much for coming on the show.

381
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 2: Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at the

382
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 2: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.

383
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 2: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

384
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 2: or wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you.

385
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 2: Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at

386
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take

387
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: is Vicky Vergalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Frederica

388
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: Romanello is our producer. Our associate producer is Zeneb sidiki Ji.

389
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 2: The Garcia is our in engineer. Our original music was

390
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm west Kosova. We'll be back

391
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 2: tomorrow with another Big Take