WEBVTT - What a Second Trump Term Means for NATO and Markets 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:16.320 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.840 at seven am Eastern on Applecar Player, Android Auto with 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.320 the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.200 your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:28.920 Joining us now is Michael Showell. You know him from 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:31.680 Marketfield and oscar Grows years ago. 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:36.360 The Eon am I pronouncing that ion ion ei e 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.120 io ion. 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.720 Asset Management and on the front page of the Ion 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:46.159 Asset Management website is my foundational thinking here where Michael 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:50.880 Schuil divides the world into type one and type two errors. 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.400 People that have heard me lectured on this, we'll hear 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.840 me say the type two construct as well. Type two 0:00:57.080 --> 0:01:01.120 errors things that are not happening but are believed to 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:05.440 be happening. What is that right now? What's not happening 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:07.600 that we believe are happening. 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:12.160 You know, I don't think the Chinese economy is facing 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:14.800 the kind of intractable problems that. 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:16.319 Most people do. 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.880 I think you're you're you know, at the beginning of 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:24.480 the Chinese economy, you know, looking okay again. You know, 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:27.679 I do think the election puts a new hurdle in place, 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:33.319 you know, in the form of Trump and his tower policies, 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.959 which you know, I think almost certainly some increase in 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:39.600 tawis on China is going to take place. But I 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:44.200 think China's competitive position in twenty twenty five is different 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.880 to its competitive position in twenty eighteen. It's export industries 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:53.320 are now starting to dominate products which are crucial to 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:55.920 both for corporate and personal sector in. 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:57.680 The US and in Europe. 0:01:58.400 --> 0:01:59.760 It's not going to be quite as easy to shot 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:00.920 him out of export market. 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:04.000 So your claim is in commodities, we've had a long 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:08.040 term commodity collapsed. You and Russia Sarma lead the study 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.400 of this. Can we go long commodities because we underestimate 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:12.920 China's potential? 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.560 I think commodity prices, you know, the industrial medals are 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.600 too low today. You know, I think that you're at 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.560 the beginnings of the recovery. It's it's very, very noisy. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.640 I think that the trading around big set pieces such 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:32.600 as this morning's announcement of stimulus is excessive, so you 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.480 get money rushing in ahead and rushing out because the 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.520 headline number isn't exactly what people want to see. But 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:40.640 I look, I think this is a I think this 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:45.359 is a process. I think the the you know, g 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:50.200 is is in a position somewhat analogous to Drahi in 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:56.080 twenty eleven twelve, or the US FED in two thousand 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.920 and late two thousand and eight through late two thousand 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:02.120 and nine, maybe even Jack on whole twenty ten, which 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.600 is he's in the middle of a process where he 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:10.280 tries to rebuild domestic confidence and international confidence in his country. 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.000 And you know, my gut saw that he'll get that 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.240 done eventually, but it'll be a noisy and bloody process. 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.400 About that process. So we're at a moment where we're 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:22.079 kind of looking back to twenty sixteen to twenty twenty 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.320 and trying to recall what we've suppressed or forgotten about 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.800 all of it unfolded. How is that happening in Beijing? 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.840 In other words, what template do they have for how 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:36.160 they responded to or engaged with the Salvos from the 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.240 US in the in the trade war, and so what 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:41.160 are they doing to prepare for whatever might come here 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:43.560 if we get these sixty percent here, whatever whatever comes 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.040 from this new administration, How did they position themselves for 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.600 it and keep up that effort to bolster confidence and 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:50.640 strengthen the economy domestically. 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.120 They're in China, you know. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:56.480 I think that the tawers really came in place in 0:03:56.800 --> 0:04:01.960 twenty eighteen, but they were in response China's completely unreasonable 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:05.760 mercantilists trade you know, trade policies themselves. So I'm certainly 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.560 of a belief that the Chinese, you know, started this, 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:10.880 started this battle. I think the difference this time is 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.720 it really can't come as a surprise. I think they 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:17.359 were surprised in twenty eighteen. Trump didn't run on a 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:20.600 pro tariff policy in twenty sixteen. It was something which 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.040 developed as he came to understand what what China's competitive 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:28.240 trade positions had been. Look, what can they do? I 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:30.560 think one thing they have done is is made their 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:35.800 industrial policy more competitive in terms of making making unique 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:39.200 products that the West either can't make anything like as 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:43.200 cheaply or can't make or or can't make can't make period. 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.120 The other thing, the other level they have, if they 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.720 want to use it, is currency. I do think you're 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:56.679 going to see a managed arm devaluation of one probably 0:04:56.720 --> 0:04:59.599 between now and early early next year. 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.160 So you go to a resilient, strong dollar, even though 0:05:02.200 --> 0:05:04.320 President elect Trump will want week dollar. 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:09.920 I think dollar one, not necessarily dollar, euro dollar, you know, 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.279 dollar Stirling. But I think that the one of around 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:18.000 seven is you know, it's it's it's strong against the dollar. 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.159 You know, it could be seven thirty, seven, forty. 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:21.839 You mentioned mert list. 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:26.200 Do you perceive after the campaign that President Trump is 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:29.599 running some form of mercantilist zero sum policy. 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:33.120 I think his whole view of the world is transactional. 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.039 I mean, he's a real estate guy, you know, he 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:40.880 does deals and and and that's very different from a 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:45.600 sort of classical liberal three trade I'm talking economic liberal obviously, 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:49.240 you know economic liberal three three trade position, which is 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.919 that it's not a zero sum game. It's a world 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:55.919 in which we can cooperation leads to leads to leads 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:56.880 to greater wealth. 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:57.560 You know. 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:01.960 I think a transactional view of the world does definitely 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.440 lend itself to mechantilism. But as I say, I do 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:09.120 believe that this. You know, the Chinese were always mechantilist. 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.440 The Chinese were always willing and able to take full 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:17.000 advantage of the generosity of the global world order. 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:18.799 I want to ask you about the bond market Spatch 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:20.479 and Page was in here talking about the round trip 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:22.120 we've seen the ten year take over the course of 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:25.520 the week. Does that give you a framework over a 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:28.560 sense of what the range is for the ten year 0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:32.560 and how do you trade that given what we've seen 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:36.200 over the course of this week, and how are you 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:38.080 just thinking about US treasuries in particular? 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.640 You know, I think the treasury market has been reasonably 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:44.159 rational over the last sort of six to nine months, 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:46.560 and most of its move obviously around the election. It's 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.440 got its own volatility, but most of the moves we've seen, 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:52.479 both in yields going down and yields going up, you 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.760 can tie to the trend of economic data, which was 0:06:55.920 --> 0:07:00.400 you know, pretty weak compared to expectations between you know, 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:04.160 being in late summer and has been pretty strong versus 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.039 expectations mostly you know, mostly since then. In terms of 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.440 a range, I don't know, three seventy five to five 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:12.960 seems to be you know, it's a big range, but 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:15.200 you know, but it's not you know, but it's it's 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:19.960 it's you know, it's it's not crazy. There's certainly, as 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:23.000 I say, appetite for long term yields at this level. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.080 Today you see that the auction auction demand has basically 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.760 picked up. You know, I think the big question if 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:32.560 we look ahead to the next four years, you know, 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.920 is is for Trump administration going to face for limits 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:40.239 of fiscal policy at some point? You're not there today Today, 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:42.880 I think we've got to the point that people talk 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.400 about fiscal issues in a way that they haven't for 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.480 the last twenty thirty years, but where you're yet to 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.800 see the sort of response to policy that you saw 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:53.760 in the UK in September twenty twenty two. 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.480 I want to get one more thing in here as well. 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.880 Denise Pellegrini in our three am meeting this morning mention 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.280 SPX is now fifty percent or something of the global 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:07.880 equity cap Michael Schule on MEG seven, are you comfortable 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:10.840 owning or adding the positions. 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:11.160 In the MEG seven? 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:14.960 I mean, I think most people earn a hell of 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.080 a lot of it. I mean, the good news is 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.160 that they're still generating good news. I think that's absolutely 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:23.360 I think that's absolutely critical. But you know, this has 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:27.480 been a border This has been a border equity market valley, 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.880 particularly since the start of summer. You know, then we've 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.560 seen for most of the last for most of the 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:37.040 last few years. And you know, I think for people 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.600 sort of chasing this equity market into the end of 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.560 the year with a Trump administration, it's probably the rustle 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:44.319 that people throw their money at. 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.640 I have to just one personal question. You are supportive 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:52.960 of the Tel Aviv universities through their American friends. What 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.959 relationship is the most constructive for the president elect with 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:58.080 mister Netta who? 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.360 How should that be amended off of the Biden years? 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:06.400 You know, I think the US has been a good 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:10.440 ally to to to to Israel. I think Biden himself 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:14.320 as president has been a good ally. I'm not sure 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:19.040 the entire Democratic Party has, and the popularity of that 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:23.120 policy has certainly certainly been diminished. Look, Trump and Nettiya, 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:26.000 who you know, kind of speak the same language. I 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:29.679 think there's questions whether again Nettinya, who himself is going 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.239 to be the prime Minister for the majority of his presidency. 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.560 Arm you know that there'll be an election where you 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:38.840 know there'll be an election there fairly early in in 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.080 in you know, in in the I would say the 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.599 reign of Trump, it was a frodient slip in the presidency. 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.480 In the presidency of Trump, but I look, I I 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.959 think that that Trump is is sort of generally viewed 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:56.679 as being pro Israel, subject to the limitations of his 0:09:57.160 --> 0:09:58.679 sort of inherent volatility. 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:02.120 Michael thinks, So Michael show with us, don't be a stranger. 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.440 Let's do this again with Ion Asset Management. I put 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.200 out on a Twitter and linked in the website. 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:07.679 It's great. 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:18.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.720 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:25.000 Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:26.760 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:28.520 You wonder how does Gera do it? 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.439 How can Gera be that smart? 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:34.200 He sat there and he would read The Almanac of 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:38.480 American Politics to his children as they went to bed 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.360 at night. The Almanac of American Politics is like a 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:46.960 thousand pages. It's it's brilliant on every congressional district. I 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.960 miss it every day and helping edit it. That was 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:56.480 Jessica Taylor. She was a senior breakthrough officer for the 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:59.839 Almanac of American Politics and David Guru with a cook 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.400 political report. Why didn't you bring her in on what 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.800 she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:07.040 Taylor is Monday. 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:09.160 Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you. 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:11.240 We can get Tom a copy of that almanac, would happen? 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:14.079 Yeah, I mean a well, start work on it next week. Actually, 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.920 if the next edition is go, I'm quickly turning around 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:17.320 doing that. 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:20.400 So yeah, are you going to know by Monday who 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:23.000 controls the House? Where are we in the counting of 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:26.600 votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country? 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.000 Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:34.400 that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts, 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.800 you know. But I think there's a very there's a 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:42.160 very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats. 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:43.199 That's what's becoming clear. 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.280 Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:49.560 morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:51.800 complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:55.240 ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.679 where things were going. She felt she was ignored by 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.840 the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.800 from kind of macro to micro, but I want to 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:05.480 use that as kind of a pivot to ask you 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.760 about how much what we've been talking about over these 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.520 last few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:15.000 to these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.760 about the degree to which the Democratic Party has left 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.640 voters behind, or if we look at these races one 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.800 by one, be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere, 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.520 are there places where the kind of main messaging that 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.239 the Democrats have had have worked. 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:29.600 Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.600 our latest projections here at cook that we are putting 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.640 out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.840 winning so far two hundred and twelve, So they're just 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.640 shy six seats of the two eighteen and we think 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:40.920 probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game, 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:42.800 which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:44.920 still up in the air. But to ask about the 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.720 individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win, 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.280 we're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.760 Gules camp Perez there in Washington, but Jared Golden and 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.840 Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.760 that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:02.400 we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.520 by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania, 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:06.360 which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt 0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:09.560 Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats. 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.720 But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map, 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.320 someone like Tammy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin. 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.160 They both I think were able to run stronger in 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:22.080 rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.560 I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:27.960 they had a unique brand sort of separate from the 0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:31.200 Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.319 to trust to vote for them even as they voted 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:33.800 for Trump. 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.720 In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:42.800 fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that, 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:46.520 but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate. 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:48.800 Where do you stand on that? 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:50.880 I mean, I'm waiting for Charlie Cook to write one 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:54.679 of his wonderful essays about this. Is it a landslide, 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.160 is it a power shift? Or do we overplay that. 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.800 Right now, well, at least I'm looking at the Senate. 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:02.680 They have at least fifty three seats right now, and 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:04.680 I think that's probably where it's going to land. The 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:08.280 ap is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio, 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.320 and Montana, but those three were always the ones we 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.600 expected were the most. So again Republicans left seats on 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.600 the table because for the first time we've had multiple 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.400 seats that split their tickets in the Trump era with it. 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.600 You know, the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called, 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:24.320 but it looks like those are going to vote Democratic 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.640 at the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level. 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:29.560 So this could have been much worse. That's my piece 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:31.560 that I have out this morning in the table, and 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:35.040 that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.040 of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.200 they had we here candidates, so it could have been worse. 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.360 And remember that much like you know, I think this 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:44.120 was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.280 fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:50.520 least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:54.600 of Maine could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP. 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:57.560 How they go about that could could matter. But you know, 0:14:57.640 --> 0:14:59.800 if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House, 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:01.960 that you know that we saw what that four seat 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:04.560 majority did last time. But you know, the last time 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.720 Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.680 came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:12.200 get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:16.280 we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.080 that regard. So you know, I think they're gonna have 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:20.760 to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax cuts 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.160 and anything that they want to do in this two years. 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.600 But again, they have a little bit bigger majority in 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:28.960 the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again, 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.240 if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.000 that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic area, 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.080 so they might not go along with the National Party. 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.280 I get this Soud on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.480 writing in the Munshington Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:46.240 powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:46.920 to Jessica. 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:48.840 Jessic, I just want to ask you about that so 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.200 called blue wall and where it stands today. I was 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.680 in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.400 Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.440 confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.200 called her tam there was no pretense, and how people 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.840 addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:06.960 she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.000 changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.560 time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.600 saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally, 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.360 how do you see that stretch of the rust belt? 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:18.840 Has it changed permanently? 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:21.040 I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:22.800 the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.960 Trump's victories there, I think that Democrats took the wrong 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.320 lessons away from twenty twenty two, when they ran better 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.880 candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.360 was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said, 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:35.240 you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.280 she probably got at least a four point boost because 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.000 of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.560 candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again, 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.080 you do need to run democrats that have those brands. 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.240 That's how Tamy Baldwin was able to survive. But I 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:51.120 don't think that we can. You know, I think there 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:52.920 was a lot of talk going into this, like Michigan's 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.840 not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Weimer's win, 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.280 look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.000 a different. Things like these are moments in time, and 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.920 when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:07.440 some of the special election, right. 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.919 Jessica, fifteen seconds? When do I get the new Almanac 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.320 of American Politics? 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:14.200 How long does it take? You can pre order? 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:15.240 It's the target game. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.320 Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.320 a Cook Political Reports, you will publish. We'll put it 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.000 out on Twitter and LinkedIn for you. Again, I can't 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.560 say the subscriber cooks a subscribe to Cook Political Report. 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.120 It's really and they don't overwhelm you with forty seven stories. 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.199 You know, there's some weight to each story, which I 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:35.200 think is cool. 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:37.640 The Almanac of American Politics will look for that. 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:39.040 And some weight to that as well. 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:40.359 Physical way, Yeah, it's. 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.040 Like it's a value line for those of you in 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:43.359 the classic world. 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:47.680 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.960 starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.840 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.040 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.960 Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:06.680 The address is Department of the Navy, twelve hundred, Pentagon, Washington, 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:11.560 d C two zero three five h twelve hundred. Someone 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.440 that knows that address, called James Travitas joins us now 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:16.280 his public service to the nation. 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:17.639 The many books he has. 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:23.680 Put out, but today one theme for admiralster Vetas and 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.480 I look, Admirroll at the Washington Post which has a 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.200 definitive article on it so far, and it's a lead article. 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:34.280 Dan Lamont, Missy Ryan and Alex Harton, and it's real simple. 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:39.399 Pentagon anticipates major upheaval with Trump's return to the White House. 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.439 They go through this, and what it comes down to 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:47.200 is having a Pentagon with a political tone or kinge. 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.400 Have we ever been here before? No? 0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:54.640 And I hope we don't go there. I have seen 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:59.760 reports that the new Trump administration might consider actually taking 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.760 some of the generals and admirals out of their positions 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:07.159 and bringing new ones in. That's just not how the 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:11.919 military has worked. It's always been an apolitical force. It 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:15.560 swears an oath of allegiance, not to the President of 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.119 the United States, not to the commander in chief, but 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.520 to the Constitution. Let's hope it stays that way. 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:24.280 Is there a gap, as I've read a history of 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:29.760 any nation between our officers in particularly senior officers in 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:33.640 our enlisted forces, whether Air, Force, Army. 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:34.800 Or neighbor to Navy. 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.840 Do you perceive a gap now between those two political 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:40.400 emotions within our military. 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.560 I think there's always been such a gap between officers 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:48.919 and enlisted men and women, and it's really an educational gap. 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:53.479 By and large, officers almost universally have at least a 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:59.760 bachelor's degree. Tom enlisted folks typically are not college educated. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:04.520 The same fault lines you see in national polling between 0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:08.600 college educated and non college educated. You see those in 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:13.480 the military as well. Final thought, however, all of them, 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:17.040 every single one of those volunteers, one point five million 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:20.320 in the Department of Defense, swear that booth of allegiance 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:21.440 to the Constitution. 0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:22.080 Everyone. 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:24.560 Once I was so angry at David Gerr, I threw 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:27.760 the leader's bookshelf at him, said shut up and read 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.280 this state and go back to Sparta and Greece. 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.679 David, more than once adamal great to speak with you. 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:36.040 And in that piece that Tom reference Richard Cohe is quoted, 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:38.040 of course, of the Venerable Peace, War and Defense Program 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.119 at the universit of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and 0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:42.040 he he says, mister Trump does not have a real 0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.919