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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
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Speaker 3: Joining us now is Michael Showell. You know him from
Speaker 3: Marketfield and oscar Grows years ago.
Speaker 4: The Eon am I pronouncing that ion ion ei e
Speaker 4: io ion.
Speaker 3: Asset Management and on the front page of the Ion
Speaker 3: Asset Management website is my foundational thinking here where Michael
Speaker 3: Schuil divides the world into type one and type two errors.
Speaker 3: People that have heard me lectured on this, we'll hear
Speaker 3: me say the type two construct as well. Type two
Speaker 3: errors things that are not happening but are believed to
Speaker 3: be happening. What is that right now? What's not happening
Speaker 3: that we believe are happening.
Speaker 5: You know, I don't think the Chinese economy is facing
Speaker 5: the kind of intractable problems that.
Speaker 4: Most people do.
Speaker 5: I think you're you're you know, at the beginning of
Speaker 5: the Chinese economy, you know, looking okay again. You know,
Speaker 5: I do think the election puts a new hurdle in place,
Speaker 5: you know, in the form of Trump and his tower policies,
Speaker 5: which you know, I think almost certainly some increase in
Speaker 5: tawis on China is going to take place. But I
Speaker 5: think China's competitive position in twenty twenty five is different
Speaker 5: to its competitive position in twenty eighteen. It's export industries
Speaker 5: are now starting to dominate products which are crucial to
Speaker 5: both for corporate and personal sector in.
Speaker 4: The US and in Europe.
Speaker 5: It's not going to be quite as easy to shot
Speaker 5: him out of export market.
Speaker 3: So your claim is in commodities, we've had a long
Speaker 3: term commodity collapsed. You and Russia Sarma lead the study
Speaker 3: of this. Can we go long commodities because we underestimate
Speaker 3: China's potential?
Speaker 5: I think commodity prices, you know, the industrial medals are
Speaker 5: too low today. You know, I think that you're at
Speaker 5: the beginnings of the recovery. It's it's very, very noisy.
Speaker 5: I think that the trading around big set pieces such
Speaker 5: as this morning's announcement of stimulus is excessive, so you
Speaker 5: get money rushing in ahead and rushing out because the
Speaker 5: headline number isn't exactly what people want to see. But
Speaker 5: I look, I think this is a I think this
Speaker 5: is a process. I think the the you know, g
Speaker 5: is is in a position somewhat analogous to Drahi in
Speaker 5: twenty eleven twelve, or the US FED in two thousand
Speaker 5: and late two thousand and eight through late two thousand
Speaker 5: and nine, maybe even Jack on whole twenty ten, which
Speaker 5: is he's in the middle of a process where he
Speaker 5: tries to rebuild domestic confidence and international confidence in his country.
Speaker 5: And you know, my gut saw that he'll get that
Speaker 5: done eventually, but it'll be a noisy and bloody process.
Speaker 1: About that process. So we're at a moment where we're
Speaker 1: kind of looking back to twenty sixteen to twenty twenty
Speaker 1: and trying to recall what we've suppressed or forgotten about
Speaker 1: all of it unfolded. How is that happening in Beijing?
Speaker 1: In other words, what template do they have for how
Speaker 1: they responded to or engaged with the Salvos from the
Speaker 1: US in the in the trade war, and so what
Speaker 1: are they doing to prepare for whatever might come here
Speaker 1: if we get these sixty percent here, whatever whatever comes
Speaker 1: from this new administration, How did they position themselves for
Speaker 1: it and keep up that effort to bolster confidence and
Speaker 1: strengthen the economy domestically.
Speaker 4: They're in China, you know.
Speaker 5: I think that the tawers really came in place in
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, but they were in response China's completely unreasonable
Speaker 5: mercantilists trade you know, trade policies themselves. So I'm certainly
Speaker 5: of a belief that the Chinese, you know, started this,
Speaker 5: started this battle. I think the difference this time is
Speaker 5: it really can't come as a surprise. I think they
Speaker 5: were surprised in twenty eighteen. Trump didn't run on a
Speaker 5: pro tariff policy in twenty sixteen. It was something which
Speaker 5: developed as he came to understand what what China's competitive
Speaker 5: trade positions had been. Look, what can they do? I
Speaker 5: think one thing they have done is is made their
Speaker 5: industrial policy more competitive in terms of making making unique
Speaker 5: products that the West either can't make anything like as
Speaker 5: cheaply or can't make or or can't make can't make period.
Speaker 5: The other thing, the other level they have, if they
Speaker 5: want to use it, is currency. I do think you're
Speaker 5: going to see a managed arm devaluation of one probably
Speaker 5: between now and early early next year.
Speaker 3: So you go to a resilient, strong dollar, even though
Speaker 3: President elect Trump will want week dollar.
Speaker 5: I think dollar one, not necessarily dollar, euro dollar, you know,
Speaker 5: dollar Stirling. But I think that the one of around
Speaker 5: seven is you know, it's it's it's strong against the dollar.
Speaker 5: You know, it could be seven thirty, seven, forty.
Speaker 4: You mentioned mert list.
Speaker 3: Do you perceive after the campaign that President Trump is
Speaker 3: running some form of mercantilist zero sum policy.
Speaker 5: I think his whole view of the world is transactional.
Speaker 5: I mean, he's a real estate guy, you know, he
Speaker 5: does deals and and and that's very different from a
Speaker 5: sort of classical liberal three trade I'm talking economic liberal obviously,
Speaker 5: you know economic liberal three three trade position, which is
Speaker 5: that it's not a zero sum game. It's a world
Speaker 5: in which we can cooperation leads to leads to leads
Speaker 5: to greater wealth.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 5: I think a transactional view of the world does definitely
Speaker 5: lend itself to mechantilism. But as I say, I do
Speaker 5: believe that this. You know, the Chinese were always mechantilist.
Speaker 5: The Chinese were always willing and able to take full
Speaker 5: advantage of the generosity of the global world order.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about the bond market Spatch
Speaker 1: and Page was in here talking about the round trip
Speaker 1: we've seen the ten year take over the course of
Speaker 1: the week. Does that give you a framework over a
Speaker 1: sense of what the range is for the ten year
Speaker 1: and how do you trade that given what we've seen
Speaker 1: over the course of this week, and how are you
Speaker 1: just thinking about US treasuries in particular?
Speaker 5: You know, I think the treasury market has been reasonably
Speaker 5: rational over the last sort of six to nine months,
Speaker 5: and most of its move obviously around the election. It's
Speaker 5: got its own volatility, but most of the moves we've seen,
Speaker 5: both in yields going down and yields going up, you
Speaker 5: can tie to the trend of economic data, which was
Speaker 5: you know, pretty weak compared to expectations between you know,
Speaker 5: being in late summer and has been pretty strong versus
Speaker 5: expectations mostly you know, mostly since then. In terms of
Speaker 5: a range, I don't know, three seventy five to five
Speaker 5: seems to be you know, it's a big range, but
Speaker 5: you know, but it's not you know, but it's it's
Speaker 5: it's you know, it's it's not crazy. There's certainly, as
Speaker 5: I say, appetite for long term yields at this level.
Speaker 5: Today you see that the auction auction demand has basically
Speaker 5: picked up. You know, I think the big question if
Speaker 5: we look ahead to the next four years, you know,
Speaker 5: is is for Trump administration going to face for limits
Speaker 5: of fiscal policy at some point? You're not there today Today,
Speaker 5: I think we've got to the point that people talk
Speaker 5: about fiscal issues in a way that they haven't for
Speaker 5: the last twenty thirty years, but where you're yet to
Speaker 5: see the sort of response to policy that you saw
Speaker 5: in the UK in September twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: I want to get one more thing in here as well.
Speaker 3: Denise Pellegrini in our three am meeting this morning mention
Speaker 3: SPX is now fifty percent or something of the global
Speaker 3: equity cap Michael Schule on MEG seven, are you comfortable
Speaker 3: owning or adding the positions.
Speaker 4: In the MEG seven?
Speaker 5: I mean, I think most people earn a hell of
Speaker 5: a lot of it. I mean, the good news is
Speaker 5: that they're still generating good news. I think that's absolutely
Speaker 5: I think that's absolutely critical. But you know, this has
Speaker 5: been a border This has been a border equity market valley,
Speaker 5: particularly since the start of summer. You know, then we've
Speaker 5: seen for most of the last for most of the
Speaker 5: last few years. And you know, I think for people
Speaker 5: sort of chasing this equity market into the end of
Speaker 5: the year with a Trump administration, it's probably the rustle
Speaker 5: that people throw their money at.
Speaker 3: I have to just one personal question. You are supportive
Speaker 3: of the Tel Aviv universities through their American friends. What
Speaker 3: relationship is the most constructive for the president elect with
Speaker 3: mister Netta who?
Speaker 4: How should that be amended off of the Biden years?
Speaker 5: You know, I think the US has been a good
Speaker 5: ally to to to to Israel. I think Biden himself
Speaker 5: as president has been a good ally. I'm not sure
Speaker 5: the entire Democratic Party has, and the popularity of that
Speaker 5: policy has certainly certainly been diminished. Look, Trump and Nettiya,
Speaker 5: who you know, kind of speak the same language. I
Speaker 5: think there's questions whether again Nettinya, who himself is going
Speaker 5: to be the prime Minister for the majority of his presidency.
Speaker 5: Arm you know that there'll be an election where you
Speaker 5: know there'll be an election there fairly early in in
Speaker 5: in you know, in in the I would say the
Speaker 5: reign of Trump, it was a frodient slip in the presidency.
Speaker 5: In the presidency of Trump, but I look, I I
Speaker 5: think that that Trump is is sort of generally viewed
Speaker 5: as being pro Israel, subject to the limitations of his
Speaker 5: sort of inherent volatility.
Speaker 3: Michael thinks, So Michael show with us, don't be a stranger.
Speaker 3: Let's do this again with Ion Asset Management. I put
Speaker 3: out on a Twitter and linked in the website.
Speaker 4: It's great.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on
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Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: You wonder how does Gera do it?
Speaker 4: How can Gera be that smart?
Speaker 3: He sat there and he would read The Almanac of
Speaker 3: American Politics to his children as they went to bed
Speaker 3: at night. The Almanac of American Politics is like a
Speaker 3: thousand pages. It's it's brilliant on every congressional district. I
Speaker 3: miss it every day and helping edit it. That was
Speaker 3: Jessica Taylor. She was a senior breakthrough officer for the
Speaker 3: Almanac of American Politics and David Guru with a cook
Speaker 3: political report. Why didn't you bring her in on what
Speaker 3: she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica
Speaker 3: Taylor is Monday.
Speaker 1: Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you.
Speaker 1: We can get Tom a copy of that almanac, would happen?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean a well, start work on it next week. Actually,
Speaker 7: if the next edition is go, I'm quickly turning around
Speaker 7: doing that.
Speaker 1: So yeah, are you going to know by Monday who
Speaker 1: controls the House? Where are we in the counting of
Speaker 1: votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think
Speaker 7: that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts,
Speaker 7: you know. But I think there's a very there's a
Speaker 7: very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats.
Speaker 7: That's what's becoming clear.
Speaker 1: Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this
Speaker 1: morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She
Speaker 1: complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was
Speaker 1: ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about
Speaker 1: where things were going. She felt she was ignored by
Speaker 1: the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range
Speaker 1: from kind of macro to micro, but I want to
Speaker 1: use that as kind of a pivot to ask you
Speaker 1: about how much what we've been talking about over these
Speaker 1: last few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down
Speaker 1: to these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal
Speaker 1: about the degree to which the Democratic Party has left
Speaker 1: voters behind, or if we look at these races one
Speaker 1: by one, be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere,
Speaker 1: are there places where the kind of main messaging that
Speaker 1: the Democrats have had have worked.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at
Speaker 7: our latest projections here at cook that we are putting
Speaker 7: out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been
Speaker 7: winning so far two hundred and twelve, So they're just
Speaker 7: shy six seats of the two eighteen and we think
Speaker 7: probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game,
Speaker 7: which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's
Speaker 7: still up in the air. But to ask about the
Speaker 7: individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win,
Speaker 7: we're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie
Speaker 7: Gules camp Perez there in Washington, but Jared Golden and
Speaker 7: Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried
Speaker 7: that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that
Speaker 7: we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped
Speaker 7: by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 7: which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt
Speaker 7: Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.
Speaker 7: But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map,
Speaker 7: someone like Tammy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin.
Speaker 7: They both I think were able to run stronger in
Speaker 7: rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And
Speaker 7: I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that
Speaker 7: they had a unique brand sort of separate from the
Speaker 7: Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters
Speaker 7: to trust to vote for them even as they voted
Speaker 7: for Trump.
Speaker 3: In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a
Speaker 3: fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that,
Speaker 3: but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.
Speaker 4: Where do you stand on that?
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm waiting for Charlie Cook to write one
Speaker 3: of his wonderful essays about this. Is it a landslide,
Speaker 3: is it a power shift? Or do we overplay that.
Speaker 7: Right now, well, at least I'm looking at the Senate.
Speaker 7: They have at least fifty three seats right now, and
Speaker 7: I think that's probably where it's going to land. The
Speaker 7: ap is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio,
Speaker 7: and Montana, but those three were always the ones we
Speaker 7: expected were the most. So again Republicans left seats on
Speaker 7: the table because for the first time we've had multiple
Speaker 7: seats that split their tickets in the Trump era with it.
Speaker 7: You know, the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called,
Speaker 7: but it looks like those are going to vote Democratic
Speaker 7: at the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level.
Speaker 7: So this could have been much worse. That's my piece
Speaker 7: that I have out this morning in the table, and
Speaker 7: that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort
Speaker 7: of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona
Speaker 7: they had we here candidates, so it could have been worse.
Speaker 7: And remember that much like you know, I think this
Speaker 7: was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to
Speaker 7: fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At
Speaker 7: least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski
Speaker 7: of Maine could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP.
Speaker 7: How they go about that could could matter. But you know,
Speaker 7: if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House,
Speaker 7: that you know that we saw what that four seat
Speaker 7: majority did last time. But you know, the last time
Speaker 7: Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he
Speaker 7: came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to
Speaker 7: get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because
Speaker 7: we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in
Speaker 7: that regard. So you know, I think they're gonna have
Speaker 7: to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax cuts
Speaker 7: and anything that they want to do in this two years.
Speaker 7: But again, they have a little bit bigger majority in
Speaker 7: the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again,
Speaker 7: if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins
Speaker 7: that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic area,
Speaker 7: so they might not go along with the National Party.
Speaker 3: I get this Soud on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake
Speaker 3: writing in the Munshington Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote
Speaker 3: powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more
Speaker 3: to Jessica.
Speaker 1: Jessic, I just want to ask you about that so
Speaker 1: called blue wall and where it stands today. I was
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator
Speaker 1: Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very
Speaker 1: confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone
Speaker 1: called her tam there was no pretense, and how people
Speaker 1: addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like
Speaker 1: she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had
Speaker 1: changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the
Speaker 1: time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan
Speaker 1: saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally,
Speaker 1: how do you see that stretch of the rust belt?
Speaker 1: Has it changed permanently?
Speaker 7: I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it
Speaker 7: the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of
Speaker 7: Trump's victories there, I think that Democrats took the wrong
Speaker 7: lessons away from twenty twenty two, when they ran better
Speaker 7: candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I
Speaker 7: was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said,
Speaker 7: you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but
Speaker 7: she probably got at least a four point boost because
Speaker 7: of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a
Speaker 7: candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again,
Speaker 7: you do need to run democrats that have those brands.
Speaker 7: That's how Tamy Baldwin was able to survive. But I
Speaker 7: don't think that we can. You know, I think there
Speaker 7: was a lot of talk going into this, like Michigan's
Speaker 7: not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Weimer's win,
Speaker 7: look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin
Speaker 7: a different. Things like these are moments in time, and
Speaker 7: when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than
Speaker 7: some of the special election, right.
Speaker 3: Jessica, fifteen seconds? When do I get the new Almanac
Speaker 3: of American Politics?
Speaker 4: How long does it take? You can pre order?
Speaker 7: It's the target game.
Speaker 3: Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us
Speaker 3: a Cook Political Reports, you will publish. We'll put it
Speaker 3: out on Twitter and LinkedIn for you. Again, I can't
Speaker 3: say the subscriber cooks a subscribe to Cook Political Report.
Speaker 3: It's really and they don't overwhelm you with forty seven stories.
Speaker 3: You know, there's some weight to each story, which I
Speaker 3: think is cool.
Speaker 4: The Almanac of American Politics will look for that.
Speaker 1: And some weight to that as well.
Speaker 4: Physical way, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 3: Like it's a value line for those of you in
Speaker 3: the classic world.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: The address is Department of the Navy, twelve hundred, Pentagon, Washington,
Speaker 3: d C two zero three five h twelve hundred. Someone
Speaker 3: that knows that address, called James Travitas joins us now
Speaker 3: his public service to the nation.
Speaker 4: The many books he has.
Speaker 3: Put out, but today one theme for admiralster Vetas and
Speaker 3: I look, Admirroll at the Washington Post which has a
Speaker 3: definitive article on it so far, and it's a lead article.
Speaker 3: Dan Lamont, Missy Ryan and Alex Harton, and it's real simple.
Speaker 3: Pentagon anticipates major upheaval with Trump's return to the White House.
Speaker 3: They go through this, and what it comes down to
Speaker 3: is having a Pentagon with a political tone or kinge.
Speaker 4: Have we ever been here before? No?
Speaker 6: And I hope we don't go there. I have seen
Speaker 6: reports that the new Trump administration might consider actually taking
Speaker 6: some of the generals and admirals out of their positions
Speaker 6: and bringing new ones in. That's just not how the
Speaker 6: military has worked. It's always been an apolitical force. It
Speaker 6: swears an oath of allegiance, not to the President of
Speaker 6: the United States, not to the commander in chief, but
Speaker 6: to the Constitution. Let's hope it stays that way.
Speaker 3: Is there a gap, as I've read a history of
Speaker 3: any nation between our officers in particularly senior officers in
Speaker 3: our enlisted forces, whether Air, Force, Army.
Speaker 4: Or neighbor to Navy.
Speaker 3: Do you perceive a gap now between those two political
Speaker 3: emotions within our military.
Speaker 6: I think there's always been such a gap between officers
Speaker 6: and enlisted men and women, and it's really an educational gap.
Speaker 6: By and large, officers almost universally have at least a
Speaker 6: bachelor's degree. Tom enlisted folks typically are not college educated.
Speaker 6: The same fault lines you see in national polling between
Speaker 6: college educated and non college educated. You see those in
Speaker 6: the military as well. Final thought, however, all of them,
Speaker 6: every single one of those volunteers, one point five million
Speaker 6: in the Department of Defense, swear that booth of allegiance
Speaker 6: to the Constitution.
Speaker 4: Everyone.
Speaker 3: Once I was so angry at David Gerr, I threw
Speaker 3: the leader's bookshelf at him, said shut up and read
Speaker 3: this state and go back to Sparta and Greece.
Speaker 1: David, more than once adamal great to speak with you.
Speaker 1: And in that piece that Tom reference Richard Cohe is quoted,
Speaker 1: of course, of the Venerable Peace, War and Defense Program
Speaker 1: at the universit of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and
Speaker 1: he he says, mister Trump does not have a real
Speaker 1: understanding of civil military relations or the importance of a
Speaker 1: non partisan, non political military. Who is going to educate
Speaker 1: him on that? As you look back on the last
Speaker 1: Trump term, it was something he clearly struggled with. Who
Speaker 1: is in a position to make it clear to him
Speaker 1: the way things have worked and indeed should work in
Speaker 1: this country.
Speaker 6: Give you three names that come to my mind. One
Speaker 6: is Mike Pompeo, who was the director of the CIA
Speaker 6: and then was the Secretary of State West Point graduate
Speaker 6: number one in his class, he could help. Number two
Speaker 6: the last National Security advisor, former Ambassador Robert O'Brien, very
Speaker 6: well grounded, steady, I think he could be in a
Speaker 6: position to be helpful. And Third, the last Deputy National
Speaker 6: Security Advisor, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg retired, also understands all
Speaker 6: of that. Those are names that I'm actively seeing under
Speaker 6: consideration in a Trump administration. Dave, We're just going to
Speaker 6: have to wait and see who he puts in positions
Speaker 6: of authority that'll give us a clue where we're heading.
Speaker 3: Er, would you serve the President elect?
Speaker 6: I have never turned down a request for service from
Speaker 6: the country, and I will it at that, Tom, Admiral, you're.
Speaker 1: Out with a new column here at Bloomberg Opinion focusing
Speaker 1: on NATO. You say your phone has been ringing off
Speaker 1: the hook from worried US allies in Europe in particular.
Speaker 1: We're wondering about what's going to happen with NATO. What
Speaker 1: is your best guess of the path forward here for
Speaker 1: that alliance? Given the rhetoric that we've heard on this campaign, Trill,
Speaker 1: given what we heard when Donald Trump was in the
Speaker 1: White House.
Speaker 6: Last time, one of my European colleagues called me and said,
Speaker 6: are these the last days of NATO? The short answer is,
Speaker 6: I don't think so. I think it's highly unlikely a
Speaker 6: Trump administration would simply pull out of the Alliance. But
Speaker 6: it's going to get uncomfortable over two issues. One is
Speaker 6: defense spending. The Europeans are going to have to continue
Speaker 6: to raise their defense spending above, well above I think
Speaker 6: two percent of gross domestic product, maybe two point five
Speaker 6: or even three percent that gets into the zip code
Speaker 6: of the United States and are spending. And the second
Speaker 6: one is over Ukraine. If the US, as has been
Speaker 6: rooted about by both Trump and Vanced, decides to cut
Speaker 6: off aid to Ukraine, that'll put pressure on the Europeans
Speaker 6: to support Ukraine. Both of those issues could become wedge
Speaker 6: issues in the Alliance. Final thought, Dave, I think that
Speaker 6: will be okay here. We'll work through those challenges, but
Speaker 6: it's going to be bumpy times in Brussels.
Speaker 1: What is your perspective on what happens with Ukraine. It
Speaker 1: seems like the President elect is so hell bent on
Speaker 1: ending this with some kind of settlement, maybe before Ukraine
Speaker 1: wants to have this conflict ended. Is that a foregone
Speaker 1: conclusion now? And as we talk about the relationship between
Speaker 1: the US and European nations, do you foresee a moment
Speaker 1: when if that's what a president Donald Trump is advocating
Speaker 1: for Europe says, we're going to go this alone. We
Speaker 1: have to continue to support the Ukrainian cause.
Speaker 6: I think the latter is a real possibility that if
Speaker 6: a Trump administration simply walks away from Ukraine, a lot
Speaker 6: of the US Europeans, particularly the Big Four Germany, UK
Speaker 6: France and Italy, those have the capacity collectively to support
Speaker 6: the Ukrainians. Frankly, I don't think it'll quite get there
Speaker 6: and here so I think it plays out. I think
Speaker 6: Trump will put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians
Speaker 6: to negotiate. I think Trump will put pressure on the
Speaker 6: Russians to negotiate. That negotiation could follow a ceasefire early
Speaker 6: in a Trump administration.
Speaker 5: How would it come out.
Speaker 6: I think the Russians probably would end up with Crimea,
Speaker 6: four provinces of don Bass, about twenty percent of Ukraine.
Speaker 6: They're in it now. It's going to be hard to
Speaker 6: get them out militarily. The rest of Ukraine, the other
Speaker 6: eighty percent. I think sales on free democratic and eventually
Speaker 6: has a path to NATO.
Speaker 3: Ed Well, your book two thousand and thirty four is
Speaker 3: happening in real time. This from the Associated Press. In
Speaker 3: the last four hours, Marcos of the Philippine Deans angers
Speaker 3: China with new laws to demarcate South China Sea territories.
Speaker 3: Do you see a continuity moving from Secretary of Austin
Speaker 3: to President Elect Trump's new Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 6: I do, I think again, within the framework of the
Speaker 6: Department of Defense. I'm hopeful that we can keep politics
Speaker 6: at a minimum and have a good transition. And for
Speaker 6: listeners who don't know this, the Philippines have the same
Speaker 6: security guarantees that the NATO members do the Pacific. And
Speaker 6: by the way, as you know, Tom, I've written a
Speaker 6: new book called The Restless Wave about World War Two.
Speaker 6: Part of the reason I wrote that book is to
Speaker 6: help us understand the sweep scale scope of a war,
Speaker 6: in this case with China during World War two, as
Speaker 6: I talk about in The Restless Wave with Japan, we
Speaker 6: need to avoid that.
Speaker 3: Never enough time. James Tavitis, thank you so much. REPS
Speaker 3: will see you called again for public service. The Admiral
Speaker 3: of course, of the US Navy.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 3: You daily round up on the front pages the Lisa
Speaker 3: Matteo Hour, Lisa's Start Strong.
Speaker 4: What do you got?
Speaker 6: All right?
Speaker 8: This is all about your favorite vehicle, the cyber truck. Okay,
Speaker 8: you could be seeing more of these on the road.
Speaker 8: There's a reason why Tesla is offering the option to
Speaker 8: lease the all wheel drive version and they electric pick
Speaker 8: up for three years. The price it's going to be
Speaker 8: nine hundred and ninety nine dollars a month. You also
Speaker 8: have to put down seventy five hundred dollars on top
Speaker 8: of it. But if you want the two year version
Speaker 8: with zero down, if you want to go that way,
Speaker 8: you're still going to pay about one thy, seven hundred
Speaker 8: and fifteen dollars a month. So it's going to cost you.
Speaker 8: It costs one hundred grand.
Speaker 1: You have been in one of these times?
Speaker 4: Have you written in a cyber te.
Speaker 3: No Tucker Head is on Madison Avenue, and I saw it,
Speaker 3: and to me, Ken, our global technical director, helped me.
Speaker 3: It's the width of the cyber truck. It won't get
Speaker 3: in a parking spot. Is that right, Ken?
Speaker 8: It takes up. I've seen them trying to reach Wake up, Ken, Okay,
Speaker 8: I've seen them try to pull in.
Speaker 4: It's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: I think it's the width is real because it has
Speaker 1: some steering thing where you can maneuver it more easily,
Speaker 1: maybe into it.
Speaker 4: Oh, you play.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 4: You've got some guy next.
Speaker 1: If it's that or a Rivian. The Rivian is more luxurious.
Speaker 1: Cyber truck doesn't have the level The impresses me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like it looks like, you know, sort of
Speaker 4: Lincoln is yeah or whatever. Okay, well, well if Tucker's
Speaker 4: looking at one right now, we'll see make a message.
Speaker 8: Okay, the man behind the voice of the popular AOL
Speaker 8: email alert has passed away. You don't know his name,
Speaker 8: but you certainly know his voice.
Speaker 4: You've got mail, ah.
Speaker 8: That is him. Nineteen eighty nine. Elwood Edwards he was
Speaker 8: paid two hundred dollars by enough Start called American Online
Speaker 8: AOL to say that famous line. A lot more he
Speaker 8: had a career broadcasting. He started in AM radio, behind
Speaker 8: the scenes TV. But how he landed that gig. His
Speaker 8: wife actually worked at his customer service represented for Quantum
Speaker 8: Computer Services, which would become AOL and they were looking
Speaker 8: for this voiceover and she said, well, what about my husband?
Speaker 8: And they said sure, And that's how it became.
Speaker 1: Guess how much he got for that? How many dollars?
Speaker 1: Two hundred dollars? Yeah, I mean my daily rate, my
Speaker 1: daily rate here on surveillance.
Speaker 3: It's to bring it to the election, plus tang to
Speaker 3: bring it. To bring it to the election. We haven't
Speaker 3: had the articles yet. David Gerr of how Technology, Email,
Speaker 3: social media.
Speaker 1: All that this is an incredible sigu shift.
Speaker 3: That's and mister Trump said, this is what happened last time.
Speaker 4: I'm going to be more technically savvy this time. Am
Speaker 4: I right?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 1: And I've said a great piece of over the last
Speaker 1: couple of days about how he embraced new media and
Speaker 1: podcasting in a way that felt very authentic. He was
Speaker 1: getting good guidance on that.
Speaker 3: Why I see you if Colbert brought this up last
Speaker 3: night with John Dickerson as CBS, Markert Brennan with US later,
Speaker 3: Why am I still getting emails from different people saying
Speaker 3: they need money?
Speaker 1: I've noticed that too. Some senate race is still not decided.
Speaker 6: That you know, Yeah, what next, Lisa?
Speaker 8: Okay, do you ever wonder why sometimes you go get
Speaker 8: the over the counter drug medicine and sometimes it doesn't
Speaker 8: work and you just feel like you're taking it and
Speaker 8: nothing is happening. There could be a reason for it.
Speaker 8: The FDA. It's a proposed removing a certain ingredient that
Speaker 8: they say is not effective in cold medicine oral Federal efferent,
Speaker 8: that's what it's called. It's safe, but they just say
Speaker 8: it doesn't work in relieving your stuff. He knows. So
Speaker 8: the Wall Street Journal pointed this out a few weeks ago.
Speaker 8: They pointed us to some studies. So now the FDA
Speaker 8: is jumping on board. So that could mean versions of benadryl,
Speaker 8: musenex tail and all. They could be coming off the
Speaker 8: shelves and they just have to work around it, or
Speaker 8: maybe come up with a new formula without that.
Speaker 1: Incas, she picked this because you've been coughing so much.
Speaker 1: She's worried about you.
Speaker 8: He doesn't go for the over to counter.
Speaker 4: That bills using the coffs.
Speaker 3: I mean it's but to me, the big problem is
Speaker 3: now you go in the drug stores and you can't get.
Speaker 4: It the stuff.
Speaker 1: It's locked up, even in your neighborhood.
Speaker 4: Yeah, even in our neighborhood.
Speaker 1: My word, order it online.
Speaker 8: And do that all right, So you know how we
Speaker 8: have the luxury of the coffee here, the Bloomberg, all
Speaker 8: different varieties. But at Intel, they had the luxury and
Speaker 8: they wanted to take it away. But now they say,
Speaker 8: you know what, we're going to bring it back because
Speaker 8: we want to improve morale. Intel has not been doing
Speaker 8: the best. You know, they've gone through a couple of struggles.
Speaker 8: They missed opportunities with AI, so now they want to
Speaker 8: bring that back to help with office morale. That's what
Speaker 8: these local reports are saying. What is not coming back.
Speaker 8: They used to get free fruit, so now that's not happen,
Speaker 8: so now they have to bring their own fruit if
Speaker 8: they want to do that. But also they're not going
Speaker 8: to be getting those reimbursements for internet phone commuting costs.
Speaker 8: And the company, you know, said back in August that
Speaker 8: they're going to cut about fifteen thousand workers, so that
Speaker 8: was part of the cost cutting, but they said, you
Speaker 8: know what, we're keeping the coffee, got to keep employees
Speaker 8: happy and caffeinated.
Speaker 3: It's gonna it's going to be interesting. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: a real seat. I mean we're making jokes about it, folks.
Speaker 3: But Intel out of the Dow.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's a big deal, A big deal. Mostly
Speaker 4: it's a big deal. You move on.
Speaker 3: But Sherwin Williams like, good morning Cleveland. I just don't
Speaker 3: get it. Twenty some billion in revet who it's teen sweeens.
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I'd love to know from the
Speaker 3: Dow Jones industrial average people how they picked Sherwin for
Speaker 3: thirty other companies.
Speaker 4: I just you're bored. Is it formula we're not doing?
Speaker 4: You're not noting off phones.
Speaker 1: I'm really thinking about your last time I've been to
Speaker 1: Sherwin Williams years ago. I probably have to paint do
Speaker 1: some painting in there.
Speaker 3: Probably to some pain this weekend. Missus girl will be
Speaker 3: get the ladder at is well. Thank you Lisa for
Speaker 3: the newspapers.
Speaker 4: Greatly appreciate that.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal