1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

3
00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Applecar Player, Android Auto with

4
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,320
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

5
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:28,920
Speaker 3: Joining us now is Michael Showell. You know him from

7
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,680
Speaker 3: Marketfield and oscar Grows years ago.

8
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,360
Speaker 4: The Eon am I pronouncing that ion ion ei e

9
00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:38,120
Speaker 4: io ion.

10
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,720
Speaker 3: Asset Management and on the front page of the Ion

11
00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:46,159
Speaker 3: Asset Management website is my foundational thinking here where Michael

12
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,880
Speaker 3: Schuil divides the world into type one and type two errors.

13
00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,400
Speaker 3: People that have heard me lectured on this, we'll hear

14
00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,840
Speaker 3: me say the type two construct as well. Type two

15
00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 3: errors things that are not happening but are believed to

16
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,440
Speaker 3: be happening. What is that right now? What's not happening

17
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:07,600
Speaker 3: that we believe are happening.

18
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 5: You know, I don't think the Chinese economy is facing

19
00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 5: the kind of intractable problems that.

20
00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:16,319
Speaker 4: Most people do.

21
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,880
Speaker 5: I think you're you're you know, at the beginning of

22
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:24,480
Speaker 5: the Chinese economy, you know, looking okay again. You know,

23
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,679
Speaker 5: I do think the election puts a new hurdle in place,

24
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 5: you know, in the form of Trump and his tower policies,

25
00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,959
Speaker 5: which you know, I think almost certainly some increase in

26
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 5: tawis on China is going to take place. But I

27
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,200
Speaker 5: think China's competitive position in twenty twenty five is different

28
00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 5: to its competitive position in twenty eighteen. It's export industries

29
00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 5: are now starting to dominate products which are crucial to

30
00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,920
Speaker 5: both for corporate and personal sector in.

31
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:57,680
Speaker 4: The US and in Europe.

32
00:01:58,400 --> 00:01:59,760
Speaker 5: It's not going to be quite as easy to shot

33
00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:00,920
Speaker 5: him out of export market.

34
00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 3: So your claim is in commodities, we've had a long

35
00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 3: term commodity collapsed. You and Russia Sarma lead the study

36
00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 3: of this. Can we go long commodities because we underestimate

37
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 3: China's potential?

38
00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 5: I think commodity prices, you know, the industrial medals are

39
00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,600
Speaker 5: too low today. You know, I think that you're at

40
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,560
Speaker 5: the beginnings of the recovery. It's it's very, very noisy.

41
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,640
Speaker 5: I think that the trading around big set pieces such

42
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:32,600
Speaker 5: as this morning's announcement of stimulus is excessive, so you

43
00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 5: get money rushing in ahead and rushing out because the

44
00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,520
Speaker 5: headline number isn't exactly what people want to see. But

45
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:40,640
Speaker 5: I look, I think this is a I think this

46
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:45,359
Speaker 5: is a process. I think the the you know, g

47
00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:50,200
Speaker 5: is is in a position somewhat analogous to Drahi in

48
00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:56,080
Speaker 5: twenty eleven twelve, or the US FED in two thousand

49
00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,920
Speaker 5: and late two thousand and eight through late two thousand

50
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,120
Speaker 5: and nine, maybe even Jack on whole twenty ten, which

51
00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,600
Speaker 5: is he's in the middle of a process where he

52
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:10,280
Speaker 5: tries to rebuild domestic confidence and international confidence in his country.

53
00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 5: And you know, my gut saw that he'll get that

54
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,240
Speaker 5: done eventually, but it'll be a noisy and bloody process.

55
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,400
Speaker 1: About that process. So we're at a moment where we're

56
00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,079
Speaker 1: kind of looking back to twenty sixteen to twenty twenty

57
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 1: and trying to recall what we've suppressed or forgotten about

58
00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,800
Speaker 1: all of it unfolded. How is that happening in Beijing?

59
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 1: In other words, what template do they have for how

60
00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: they responded to or engaged with the Salvos from the

61
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 1: US in the in the trade war, and so what

62
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,160
Speaker 1: are they doing to prepare for whatever might come here

63
00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,560
Speaker 1: if we get these sixty percent here, whatever whatever comes

64
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,040
Speaker 1: from this new administration, How did they position themselves for

65
00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 1: it and keep up that effort to bolster confidence and

66
00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:50,640
Speaker 1: strengthen the economy domestically.

67
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,120
Speaker 4: They're in China, you know.

68
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,480
Speaker 5: I think that the tawers really came in place in

69
00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:01,960
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, but they were in response China's completely unreasonable

70
00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,760
Speaker 5: mercantilists trade you know, trade policies themselves. So I'm certainly

71
00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,560
Speaker 5: of a belief that the Chinese, you know, started this,

72
00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 5: started this battle. I think the difference this time is

73
00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 5: it really can't come as a surprise. I think they

74
00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,359
Speaker 5: were surprised in twenty eighteen. Trump didn't run on a

75
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,600
Speaker 5: pro tariff policy in twenty sixteen. It was something which

76
00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:24,040
Speaker 5: developed as he came to understand what what China's competitive

77
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:28,240
Speaker 5: trade positions had been. Look, what can they do? I

78
00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,560
Speaker 5: think one thing they have done is is made their

79
00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:35,800
Speaker 5: industrial policy more competitive in terms of making making unique

80
00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 5: products that the West either can't make anything like as

81
00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,200
Speaker 5: cheaply or can't make or or can't make can't make period.

82
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,120
Speaker 5: The other thing, the other level they have, if they

83
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,720
Speaker 5: want to use it, is currency. I do think you're

84
00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:56,679
Speaker 5: going to see a managed arm devaluation of one probably

85
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,599
Speaker 5: between now and early early next year.

86
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,160
Speaker 3: So you go to a resilient, strong dollar, even though

87
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 3: President elect Trump will want week dollar.

88
00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:09,920
Speaker 5: I think dollar one, not necessarily dollar, euro dollar, you know,

89
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,279
Speaker 5: dollar Stirling. But I think that the one of around

90
00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:18,000
Speaker 5: seven is you know, it's it's it's strong against the dollar.

91
00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,159
Speaker 5: You know, it could be seven thirty, seven, forty.

92
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:21,839
Speaker 4: You mentioned mert list.

93
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 3: Do you perceive after the campaign that President Trump is

94
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,599
Speaker 3: running some form of mercantilist zero sum policy.

95
00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,120
Speaker 5: I think his whole view of the world is transactional.

96
00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,039
Speaker 5: I mean, he's a real estate guy, you know, he

97
00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 5: does deals and and and that's very different from a

98
00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,600
Speaker 5: sort of classical liberal three trade I'm talking economic liberal obviously,

99
00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,240
Speaker 5: you know economic liberal three three trade position, which is

100
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,919
Speaker 5: that it's not a zero sum game. It's a world

101
00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,919
Speaker 5: in which we can cooperation leads to leads to leads

102
00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:56,880
Speaker 5: to greater wealth.

103
00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:57,560
Speaker 6: You know.

104
00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,960
Speaker 5: I think a transactional view of the world does definitely

105
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,440
Speaker 5: lend itself to mechantilism. But as I say, I do

106
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 5: believe that this. You know, the Chinese were always mechantilist.

107
00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 5: The Chinese were always willing and able to take full

108
00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,000
Speaker 5: advantage of the generosity of the global world order.

109
00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:18,799
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about the bond market Spatch

110
00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:20,479
Speaker 1: and Page was in here talking about the round trip

111
00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:22,120
Speaker 1: we've seen the ten year take over the course of

112
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 1: the week. Does that give you a framework over a

113
00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,560
Speaker 1: sense of what the range is for the ten year

114
00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,560
Speaker 1: and how do you trade that given what we've seen

115
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:36,200
Speaker 1: over the course of this week, and how are you

116
00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: just thinking about US treasuries in particular?

117
00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,640
Speaker 5: You know, I think the treasury market has been reasonably

118
00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,159
Speaker 5: rational over the last sort of six to nine months,

119
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,560
Speaker 5: and most of its move obviously around the election. It's

120
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,440
Speaker 5: got its own volatility, but most of the moves we've seen,

121
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,479
Speaker 5: both in yields going down and yields going up, you

122
00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,760
Speaker 5: can tie to the trend of economic data, which was

123
00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,400
Speaker 5: you know, pretty weak compared to expectations between you know,

124
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,160
Speaker 5: being in late summer and has been pretty strong versus

125
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,039
Speaker 5: expectations mostly you know, mostly since then. In terms of

126
00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 5: a range, I don't know, three seventy five to five

127
00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:12,960
Speaker 5: seems to be you know, it's a big range, but

128
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,200
Speaker 5: you know, but it's not you know, but it's it's

129
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:19,960
Speaker 5: it's you know, it's it's not crazy. There's certainly, as

130
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,000
Speaker 5: I say, appetite for long term yields at this level.

131
00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,080
Speaker 5: Today you see that the auction auction demand has basically

132
00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,760
Speaker 5: picked up. You know, I think the big question if

133
00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,560
Speaker 5: we look ahead to the next four years, you know,

134
00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,920
Speaker 5: is is for Trump administration going to face for limits

135
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:40,239
Speaker 5: of fiscal policy at some point? You're not there today Today,

136
00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:42,880
Speaker 5: I think we've got to the point that people talk

137
00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,400
Speaker 5: about fiscal issues in a way that they haven't for

138
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 5: the last twenty thirty years, but where you're yet to

139
00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 5: see the sort of response to policy that you saw

140
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:53,760
Speaker 5: in the UK in September twenty twenty two.

141
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 3: I want to get one more thing in here as well.

142
00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,880
Speaker 3: Denise Pellegrini in our three am meeting this morning mention

143
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,280
Speaker 3: SPX is now fifty percent or something of the global

144
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,880
Speaker 3: equity cap Michael Schule on MEG seven, are you comfortable

145
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,840
Speaker 3: owning or adding the positions.

146
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:11,160
Speaker 4: In the MEG seven?

147
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,960
Speaker 5: I mean, I think most people earn a hell of

148
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,080
Speaker 5: a lot of it. I mean, the good news is

149
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,160
Speaker 5: that they're still generating good news. I think that's absolutely

150
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,360
Speaker 5: I think that's absolutely critical. But you know, this has

151
00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:27,480
Speaker 5: been a border This has been a border equity market valley,

152
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 5: particularly since the start of summer. You know, then we've

153
00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 5: seen for most of the last for most of the

154
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,040
Speaker 5: last few years. And you know, I think for people

155
00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 5: sort of chasing this equity market into the end of

156
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 5: the year with a Trump administration, it's probably the rustle

157
00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:44,319
Speaker 5: that people throw their money at.

158
00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,640
Speaker 3: I have to just one personal question. You are supportive

159
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:52,960
Speaker 3: of the Tel Aviv universities through their American friends. What

160
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,959
Speaker 3: relationship is the most constructive for the president elect with

161
00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:58,080
Speaker 3: mister Netta who?

162
00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,360
Speaker 4: How should that be amended off of the Biden years?

163
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 5: You know, I think the US has been a good

164
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,440
Speaker 5: ally to to to to Israel. I think Biden himself

165
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,320
Speaker 5: as president has been a good ally. I'm not sure

166
00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:19,040
Speaker 5: the entire Democratic Party has, and the popularity of that

167
00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:23,120
Speaker 5: policy has certainly certainly been diminished. Look, Trump and Nettiya,

168
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,000
Speaker 5: who you know, kind of speak the same language. I

169
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,679
Speaker 5: think there's questions whether again Nettinya, who himself is going

170
00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,239
Speaker 5: to be the prime Minister for the majority of his presidency.

171
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,560
Speaker 5: Arm you know that there'll be an election where you

172
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,840
Speaker 5: know there'll be an election there fairly early in in

173
00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,080
Speaker 5: in you know, in in the I would say the

174
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,599
Speaker 5: reign of Trump, it was a frodient slip in the presidency.

175
00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,480
Speaker 5: In the presidency of Trump, but I look, I I

176
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,959
Speaker 5: think that that Trump is is sort of generally viewed

177
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,679
Speaker 5: as being pro Israel, subject to the limitations of his

178
00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:58,679
Speaker 5: sort of inherent volatility.

179
00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 3: Michael thinks, So Michael show with us, don't be a stranger.

180
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,440
Speaker 3: Let's do this again with Ion Asset Management. I put

181
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,200
Speaker 3: out on a Twitter and linked in the website.

182
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:07,679
Speaker 4: It's great.

183
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,280
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

184
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,720
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on

185
00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,

186
00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:26,760
Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

187
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:28,520
Speaker 3: You wonder how does Gera do it?

188
00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,439
Speaker 4: How can Gera be that smart?

189
00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 3: He sat there and he would read The Almanac of

190
00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 3: American Politics to his children as they went to bed

191
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,360
Speaker 3: at night. The Almanac of American Politics is like a

192
00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:46,960
Speaker 3: thousand pages. It's it's brilliant on every congressional district. I

193
00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,960
Speaker 3: miss it every day and helping edit it. That was

194
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:56,480
Speaker 3: Jessica Taylor. She was a senior breakthrough officer for the

195
00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,839
Speaker 3: Almanac of American Politics and David Guru with a cook

196
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 3: political report. Why didn't you bring her in on what

197
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,800
Speaker 3: she's publishing about Monday? I want to know where Jessica

198
00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:07,040
Speaker 3: Taylor is Monday.

199
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 1: Well, Jessica, let's start there. It's great to speak with you.

200
00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 1: We can get Tom a copy of that almanac, would happen?

201
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,079
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean a well, start work on it next week. Actually,

202
00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,920
Speaker 7: if the next edition is go, I'm quickly turning around

203
00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:17,320
Speaker 7: doing that.

204
00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, are you going to know by Monday who

205
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,000
Speaker 1: controls the House? Where are we in the counting of

206
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,600
Speaker 1: votes in those what thirty outstanding districts across this country?

207
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's unclear if we'll know by Monday. I think

208
00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,400
Speaker 7: that we're still waiting on some of those key California districts,

209
00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,800
Speaker 7: you know. But I think there's a very there's a

210
00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 7: very thinning path rather to get to eighteen for Democrats.

211
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:43,199
Speaker 7: That's what's becoming clear.

212
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,280
Speaker 1: Annie Carney of the Time's at with a piece this

213
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,560
Speaker 1: morning about Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State. She

214
00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:51,800
Speaker 1: complaining to Annie just about how she felt she was

215
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,240
Speaker 1: ignored by the mainstream Democratic Party. She had complaints about

216
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,679
Speaker 1: where things were going. She felt she was ignored by

217
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:00,840
Speaker 1: the candidate herself at a Christmas party. The grievances range

218
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,800
Speaker 1: from kind of macro to micro, but I want to

219
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 1: use that as kind of a pivot to ask you

220
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:07,760
Speaker 1: about how much what we've been talking about over these

221
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,520
Speaker 1: last few days about the Democratic Party broadly trickles down

222
00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:15,000
Speaker 1: to these races for House seats. Are the complaints universal

223
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,760
Speaker 1: about the degree to which the Democratic Party has left

224
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,640
Speaker 1: voters behind, or if we look at these races one

225
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,800
Speaker 1: by one, be they in Washington State or California or elsewhere,

226
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 1: are there places where the kind of main messaging that

227
00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,239
Speaker 1: the Democrats have had have worked.

228
00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, So just to update you, I am looking at

229
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,600
Speaker 7: our latest projections here at cook that we are putting

230
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,640
Speaker 7: out this morning, and right now, Republicans we have been

231
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,840
Speaker 7: winning so far two hundred and twelve, So they're just

232
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,640
Speaker 7: shy six seats of the two eighteen and we think

233
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 7: probably the ceiling they can get is a five seat game,

234
00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 7: which would bring them to two twenty six, but that's

235
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,920
Speaker 7: still up in the air. But to ask about the

236
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,720
Speaker 7: individual things, I think that Democrats that managed to win,

237
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,280
Speaker 7: we're ones that has strong individual brands. Are only Marie

238
00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 7: Gules camp Perez there in Washington, but Jared Golden and

239
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,840
Speaker 7: Maine looks like he's held on even as Trump carried

240
00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 7: that congressional district. But then you know, other Democrats that

241
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,400
Speaker 7: we didn't think were perhaps as in danger got swamped

242
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 7: by sort of the tide. I think they're in Pennsylvania,

243
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,360
Speaker 7: which I heard you all talking about before, with Matt

244
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,560
Speaker 7: Cartwright and Susan Wilde in Pennsylvania losing both of those seats.

245
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,720
Speaker 7: But then you know, when I'm looking at the Senate map,

246
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,320
Speaker 7: someone like Tammy Baldwin managed to win very narrowly Alyssa Slotkin.

247
00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 7: They both I think were able to run stronger in

248
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,080
Speaker 7: rural areas, not win those, but to do better. And

249
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,560
Speaker 7: I think that's coming with knowing the areas and that

250
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,960
Speaker 7: they had a unique brand sort of separate from the

251
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,200
Speaker 7: Democratic Party enough where they were able to convince voters

252
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,319
Speaker 7: to trust to vote for them even as they voted

253
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:33,800
Speaker 7: for Trump.

254
00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,720
Speaker 3: In the Washington Post, I believe this morning there's a

255
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:42,800
Speaker 3: fabulous article that mister Trump has power. Everyone agrees with that,

256
00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 3: but maybe less power to drive the House and Senate.

257
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:48,800
Speaker 4: Where do you stand on that?

258
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:50,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm waiting for Charlie Cook to write one

259
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,679
Speaker 3: of his wonderful essays about this. Is it a landslide,

260
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 3: is it a power shift? Or do we overplay that.

261
00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,800
Speaker 7: Right now, well, at least I'm looking at the Senate.

262
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 7: They have at least fifty three seats right now, and

263
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,680
Speaker 7: I think that's probably where it's going to land. The

264
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,280
Speaker 7: ap is called Pennsylvania, so they flipped West Virginia, Ohio,

265
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,320
Speaker 7: and Montana, but those three were always the ones we

266
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 7: expected were the most. So again Republicans left seats on

267
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,600
Speaker 7: the table because for the first time we've had multiple

268
00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,400
Speaker 7: seats that split their tickets in the Trump era with it.

269
00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 7: You know, the races in Arizona and Nevada aren't called,

270
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 7: but it looks like those are going to vote Democratic

271
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,640
Speaker 7: at the Senate level, but heavily Republican at the presidential level.

272
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 7: So this could have been much worse. That's my piece

273
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,560
Speaker 7: that I have out this morning in the table, and

274
00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 7: that's because Democrats were spending heavily. They managed to sort

275
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 7: of ward off some of this. You know, in Arizona

276
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 7: they had we here candidates, so it could have been worse.

277
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,360
Speaker 7: And remember that much like you know, I think this

278
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,120
Speaker 7: was sort of Democrats worry if they only got to

279
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,280
Speaker 7: fifty two or something, which they've got one more. At

280
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,520
Speaker 7: least it looks like that Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski

281
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 7: of Maine could wield overwhelming influences the moderates within the GOP.

282
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,560
Speaker 7: How they go about that could could matter. But you know,

283
00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,800
Speaker 7: if Republicans have gained a few seats in the House,

284
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 7: that you know that we saw what that four seat

285
00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,560
Speaker 7: majority did last time. But you know, the last time

286
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,720
Speaker 7: Trump had a trifecta was when he was when he

287
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 7: came in in twenty seventeen, and they weren't able to

288
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 7: get everything passed. And it's just two years, probably because

289
00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 7: we see typically that a president's party faces backlash in

290
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 7: that regard. So you know, I think they're gonna have

291
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,760
Speaker 7: to push through tax cuts and renewing those tax cuts

292
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 7: and anything that they want to do in this two years.

293
00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,600
Speaker 7: But again, they have a little bit bigger majority in

294
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,960
Speaker 7: the House, but it's not huge. And you know, again,

295
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,240
Speaker 7: if some of those Republicans in California are reelected wins

296
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,000
Speaker 7: that they could be sitting in still very heavily democratic area,

297
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,080
Speaker 7: so they might not go along with the National Party.

298
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 3: I get this Soud on Twitter and LinkedIn Aaron Blake

299
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,480
Speaker 3: writing in the Munshington Post, Trump's mandate isn't as quote

300
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 3: powerful unquote as he suggests. Here's why, David one more

301
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 3: to Jessica.

302
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:48,840
Speaker 1: Jessic, I just want to ask you about that so

303
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 1: called blue wall and where it stands today. I was

304
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin before the election, spent some time with Senator

305
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,400
Speaker 1: Baldwin and just kind of noted how she was very

306
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 1: confident that she was a known quantity love, how everyone

307
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 1: called her tam there was no pretense, and how people

308
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 1: addressed her on the campaign trail, but she felt like

309
00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:06,960
Speaker 1: she was kind of wandering around a terrain that had

310
00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,000
Speaker 1: changed markedly since the last time she ran. In the

311
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,560
Speaker 1: time before that, our colleague remained Bostic was in Michigan

312
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: saying Michigan no longer a blue state, saying that unequivocally,

313
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 1: how do you see that stretch of the rust belt?

314
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:18,840
Speaker 1: Has it changed permanently?

315
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 7: I mean, I'm not sure that we can call it

316
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 7: the blue wall anymore when we look at sort of

317
00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 7: Trump's victories there, I think that Democrats took the wrong

318
00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 7: lessons away from twenty twenty two, when they ran better

319
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 7: candidates and when there was abortion on the ballot. I

320
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 7: was talking with a Michigan Democrat yesterday and they said,

321
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,240
Speaker 7: you know, listen, Gretchen Weimer won that by ten, but

322
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 7: she probably got at least a four point boost because

323
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 7: of just the abortion referendum and how terrible of a

324
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 7: candidate that Republican Tutor Dixon there was. So you know, again,

325
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,080
Speaker 7: you do need to run democrats that have those brands.

326
00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,240
Speaker 7: That's how Tamy Baldwin was able to survive. But I

327
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 7: don't think that we can. You know, I think there

328
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:52,920
Speaker 7: was a lot of talk going into this, like Michigan's

329
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 7: not even on the table anymore. Look at Gretchen Weimer's win,

330
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 7: look at that, you know, Supreme Court race in Wisconsin

331
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 7: a different. Things like these are moments in time, and

332
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 7: when you have presidential turnout, it turns out differently than

333
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:07,440
Speaker 7: some of the special election, right.

334
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 3: Jessica, fifteen seconds? When do I get the new Almanac

335
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 3: of American Politics?

336
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 4: How long does it take? You can pre order?

337
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 7: It's the target game.

338
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 3: Okay, Jessica, Thank you so much. Jessica Taylor with us

339
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 3: a Cook Political Reports, you will publish. We'll put it

340
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 3: out on Twitter and LinkedIn for you. Again, I can't

341
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 3: say the subscriber cooks a subscribe to Cook Political Report.

342
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,120
Speaker 3: It's really and they don't overwhelm you with forty seven stories.

343
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,199
Speaker 3: You know, there's some weight to each story, which I

344
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 3: think is cool.

345
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,640
Speaker 4: The Almanac of American Politics will look for that.

346
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: And some weight to that as well.

347
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 4: Physical way, Yeah, it's.

348
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 3: Like it's a value line for those of you in

349
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:43,359
Speaker 3: the classic world.

350
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

351
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

352
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

353
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

354
00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

355
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:06,680
Speaker 3: The address is Department of the Navy, twelve hundred, Pentagon, Washington,

356
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 3: d C two zero three five h twelve hundred. Someone

357
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 3: that knows that address, called James Travitas joins us now

358
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 3: his public service to the nation.

359
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:17,639
Speaker 4: The many books he has.

360
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:23,680
Speaker 3: Put out, but today one theme for admiralster Vetas and

361
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 3: I look, Admirroll at the Washington Post which has a

362
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 3: definitive article on it so far, and it's a lead article.

363
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 3: Dan Lamont, Missy Ryan and Alex Harton, and it's real simple.

364
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:39,399
Speaker 3: Pentagon anticipates major upheaval with Trump's return to the White House.

365
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 3: They go through this, and what it comes down to

366
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 3: is having a Pentagon with a political tone or kinge.

367
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,400
Speaker 4: Have we ever been here before? No?

368
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,640
Speaker 6: And I hope we don't go there. I have seen

369
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 6: reports that the new Trump administration might consider actually taking

370
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 6: some of the generals and admirals out of their positions

371
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 6: and bringing new ones in. That's just not how the

372
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 6: military has worked. It's always been an apolitical force. It

373
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 6: swears an oath of allegiance, not to the President of

374
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 6: the United States, not to the commander in chief, but

375
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 6: to the Constitution. Let's hope it stays that way.

376
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: Is there a gap, as I've read a history of

377
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 3: any nation between our officers in particularly senior officers in

378
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:33,640
Speaker 3: our enlisted forces, whether Air, Force, Army.

379
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 4: Or neighbor to Navy.

380
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 3: Do you perceive a gap now between those two political

381
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,400
Speaker 3: emotions within our military.

382
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 6: I think there's always been such a gap between officers

383
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,919
Speaker 6: and enlisted men and women, and it's really an educational gap.

384
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:53,479
Speaker 6: By and large, officers almost universally have at least a

385
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 6: bachelor's degree. Tom enlisted folks typically are not college educated.

386
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 6: The same fault lines you see in national polling between

387
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 6: college educated and non college educated. You see those in

388
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 6: the military as well. Final thought, however, all of them,

389
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 6: every single one of those volunteers, one point five million

390
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 6: in the Department of Defense, swear that booth of allegiance

391
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 6: to the Constitution.

392
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 4: Everyone.

393
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 3: Once I was so angry at David Gerr, I threw

394
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 3: the leader's bookshelf at him, said shut up and read

395
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 3: this state and go back to Sparta and Greece.

396
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 1: David, more than once adamal great to speak with you.

397
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: And in that piece that Tom reference Richard Cohe is quoted,

398
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: of course, of the Venerable Peace, War and Defense Program

399
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 1: at the universit of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and

400
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: he he says, mister Trump does not have a real

401
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 1: understanding of civil military relations or the importance of a

402
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 1: non partisan, non political military. Who is going to educate

403
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: him on that? As you look back on the last

404
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 1: Trump term, it was something he clearly struggled with. Who

405
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 1: is in a position to make it clear to him

406
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: the way things have worked and indeed should work in

407
00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: this country.

408
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 6: Give you three names that come to my mind. One

409
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 6: is Mike Pompeo, who was the director of the CIA

410
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 6: and then was the Secretary of State West Point graduate

411
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 6: number one in his class, he could help. Number two

412
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 6: the last National Security advisor, former Ambassador Robert O'Brien, very

413
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 6: well grounded, steady, I think he could be in a

414
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 6: position to be helpful. And Third, the last Deputy National

415
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 6: Security Advisor, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg retired, also understands all

416
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 6: of that. Those are names that I'm actively seeing under

417
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 6: consideration in a Trump administration. Dave, We're just going to

418
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 6: have to wait and see who he puts in positions

419
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 6: of authority that'll give us a clue where we're heading.

420
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 3: Er, would you serve the President elect?

421
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 6: I have never turned down a request for service from

422
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 6: the country, and I will it at that, Tom, Admiral, you're.

423
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 1: Out with a new column here at Bloomberg Opinion focusing

424
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: on NATO. You say your phone has been ringing off

425
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: the hook from worried US allies in Europe in particular.

426
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: We're wondering about what's going to happen with NATO. What

427
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 1: is your best guess of the path forward here for

428
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: that alliance? Given the rhetoric that we've heard on this campaign, Trill,

429
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 1: given what we heard when Donald Trump was in the

430
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: White House.

431
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 6: Last time, one of my European colleagues called me and said,

432
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 6: are these the last days of NATO? The short answer is,

433
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 6: I don't think so. I think it's highly unlikely a

434
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 6: Trump administration would simply pull out of the Alliance. But

435
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 6: it's going to get uncomfortable over two issues. One is

436
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 6: defense spending. The Europeans are going to have to continue

437
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 6: to raise their defense spending above, well above I think

438
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 6: two percent of gross domestic product, maybe two point five

439
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 6: or even three percent that gets into the zip code

440
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 6: of the United States and are spending. And the second

441
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 6: one is over Ukraine. If the US, as has been

442
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 6: rooted about by both Trump and Vanced, decides to cut

443
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 6: off aid to Ukraine, that'll put pressure on the Europeans

444
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 6: to support Ukraine. Both of those issues could become wedge

445
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 6: issues in the Alliance. Final thought, Dave, I think that

446
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 6: will be okay here. We'll work through those challenges, but

447
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 6: it's going to be bumpy times in Brussels.

448
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 1: What is your perspective on what happens with Ukraine. It

449
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 1: seems like the President elect is so hell bent on

450
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 1: ending this with some kind of settlement, maybe before Ukraine

451
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: wants to have this conflict ended. Is that a foregone

452
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 1: conclusion now? And as we talk about the relationship between

453
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: the US and European nations, do you foresee a moment

454
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: when if that's what a president Donald Trump is advocating

455
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: for Europe says, we're going to go this alone. We

456
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 1: have to continue to support the Ukrainian cause.

457
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 6: I think the latter is a real possibility that if

458
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 6: a Trump administration simply walks away from Ukraine, a lot

459
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 6: of the US Europeans, particularly the Big Four Germany, UK

460
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 6: France and Italy, those have the capacity collectively to support

461
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 6: the Ukrainians. Frankly, I don't think it'll quite get there

462
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 6: and here so I think it plays out. I think

463
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 6: Trump will put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians

464
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 6: to negotiate. I think Trump will put pressure on the

465
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 6: Russians to negotiate. That negotiation could follow a ceasefire early

466
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 6: in a Trump administration.

467
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 5: How would it come out.

468
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 6: I think the Russians probably would end up with Crimea,

469
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 6: four provinces of don Bass, about twenty percent of Ukraine.

470
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 6: They're in it now. It's going to be hard to

471
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 6: get them out militarily. The rest of Ukraine, the other

472
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 6: eighty percent. I think sales on free democratic and eventually

473
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 6: has a path to NATO.

474
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 3: Ed Well, your book two thousand and thirty four is

475
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 3: happening in real time. This from the Associated Press. In

476
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 3: the last four hours, Marcos of the Philippine Deans angers

477
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 3: China with new laws to demarcate South China Sea territories.

478
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: Do you see a continuity moving from Secretary of Austin

479
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: to President Elect Trump's new Secretary of Defense.

480
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 6: I do, I think again, within the framework of the

481
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 6: Department of Defense. I'm hopeful that we can keep politics

482
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 6: at a minimum and have a good transition. And for

483
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 6: listeners who don't know this, the Philippines have the same

484
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 6: security guarantees that the NATO members do the Pacific. And

485
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 6: by the way, as you know, Tom, I've written a

486
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 6: new book called The Restless Wave about World War Two.

487
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 6: Part of the reason I wrote that book is to

488
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 6: help us understand the sweep scale scope of a war,

489
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 6: in this case with China during World War two, as

490
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 6: I talk about in The Restless Wave with Japan, we

491
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 6: need to avoid that.

492
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 3: Never enough time. James Tavitis, thank you so much. REPS

493
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 3: will see you called again for public service. The Admiral

494
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 3: of course, of the US Navy.

495
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

496
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

497
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

498
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

499
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: You daily round up on the front pages the Lisa

500
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 3: Matteo Hour, Lisa's Start Strong.

501
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 4: What do you got?

502
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 6: All right?

503
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 8: This is all about your favorite vehicle, the cyber truck. Okay,

504
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 8: you could be seeing more of these on the road.

505
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 8: There's a reason why Tesla is offering the option to

506
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 8: lease the all wheel drive version and they electric pick

507
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 8: up for three years. The price it's going to be

508
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 8: nine hundred and ninety nine dollars a month. You also

509
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 8: have to put down seventy five hundred dollars on top

510
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 8: of it. But if you want the two year version

511
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 8: with zero down, if you want to go that way,

512
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 8: you're still going to pay about one thy, seven hundred

513
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 8: and fifteen dollars a month. So it's going to cost you.

514
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 8: It costs one hundred grand.

515
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: You have been in one of these times?

516
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 4: Have you written in a cyber te.

517
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: No Tucker Head is on Madison Avenue, and I saw it,

518
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 3: and to me, Ken, our global technical director, helped me.

519
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 3: It's the width of the cyber truck. It won't get

520
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 3: in a parking spot. Is that right, Ken?

521
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 8: It takes up. I've seen them trying to reach Wake up, Ken, Okay,

522
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 8: I've seen them try to pull in.

523
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 4: It's ridiculous.

524
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: I think it's the width is real because it has

525
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: some steering thing where you can maneuver it more easily,

526
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: maybe into it.

527
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 4: Oh, you play.

528
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: I don't know.

529
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 4: You've got some guy next.

530
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,719
Speaker 1: If it's that or a Rivian. The Rivian is more luxurious.

531
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: Cyber truck doesn't have the level The impresses me.

532
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like it looks like, you know, sort of

533
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 4: Lincoln is yeah or whatever. Okay, well, well if Tucker's

534
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 4: looking at one right now, we'll see make a message.

535
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 8: Okay, the man behind the voice of the popular AOL

536
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 8: email alert has passed away. You don't know his name,

537
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 8: but you certainly know his voice.

538
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 4: You've got mail, ah.

539
00:27:56,280 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 8: That is him. Nineteen eighty nine. Elwood Edwards he was

540
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 8: paid two hundred dollars by enough Start called American Online

541
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 8: AOL to say that famous line. A lot more he

542
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 8: had a career broadcasting. He started in AM radio, behind

543
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 8: the scenes TV. But how he landed that gig. His

544
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 8: wife actually worked at his customer service represented for Quantum

545
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 8: Computer Services, which would become AOL and they were looking

546
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 8: for this voiceover and she said, well, what about my husband?

547
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 8: And they said sure, And that's how it became.

548
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 1: Guess how much he got for that? How many dollars?

549
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: Two hundred dollars? Yeah, I mean my daily rate, my

550
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: daily rate here on surveillance.

551
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 3: It's to bring it to the election, plus tang to

552
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: bring it. To bring it to the election. We haven't

553
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 3: had the articles yet. David Gerr of how Technology, Email,

554
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 3: social media.

555
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: All that this is an incredible sigu shift.

556
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 3: That's and mister Trump said, this is what happened last time.

557
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: I'm going to be more technically savvy this time. Am

558
00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 4: I right?

559
00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: Yes?

560
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 1: And I've said a great piece of over the last

561
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: couple of days about how he embraced new media and

562
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: podcasting in a way that felt very authentic. He was

563
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: getting good guidance on that.

564
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 3: Why I see you if Colbert brought this up last

565
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: night with John Dickerson as CBS, Markert Brennan with US later,

566
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 3: Why am I still getting emails from different people saying

567
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 3: they need money?

568
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: I've noticed that too. Some senate race is still not decided.

569
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 6: That you know, Yeah, what next, Lisa?

570
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 8: Okay, do you ever wonder why sometimes you go get

571
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 8: the over the counter drug medicine and sometimes it doesn't

572
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 8: work and you just feel like you're taking it and

573
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 8: nothing is happening. There could be a reason for it.

574
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 8: The FDA. It's a proposed removing a certain ingredient that

575
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 8: they say is not effective in cold medicine oral Federal efferent,

576
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 8: that's what it's called. It's safe, but they just say

577
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 8: it doesn't work in relieving your stuff. He knows. So

578
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 8: the Wall Street Journal pointed this out a few weeks ago.

579
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 8: They pointed us to some studies. So now the FDA

580
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 8: is jumping on board. So that could mean versions of benadryl,

581
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 8: musenex tail and all. They could be coming off the

582
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 8: shelves and they just have to work around it, or

583
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 8: maybe come up with a new formula without that.

584
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: Incas, she picked this because you've been coughing so much.

585
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: She's worried about you.

586
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 8: He doesn't go for the over to counter.

587
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 4: That bills using the coffs.

588
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: I mean it's but to me, the big problem is

589
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 3: now you go in the drug stores and you can't get.

590
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 4: It the stuff.

591
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: It's locked up, even in your neighborhood.

592
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, even in our neighborhood.

593
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: My word, order it online.

594
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 8: And do that all right, So you know how we

595
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 8: have the luxury of the coffee here, the Bloomberg, all

596
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 8: different varieties. But at Intel, they had the luxury and

597
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 8: they wanted to take it away. But now they say,

598
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 8: you know what, we're going to bring it back because

599
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 8: we want to improve morale. Intel has not been doing

600
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 8: the best. You know, they've gone through a couple of struggles.

601
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 8: They missed opportunities with AI, so now they want to

602
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 8: bring that back to help with office morale. That's what

603
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 8: these local reports are saying. What is not coming back.

604
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 8: They used to get free fruit, so now that's not happen,

605
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 8: so now they have to bring their own fruit if

606
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 8: they want to do that. But also they're not going

607
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 8: to be getting those reimbursements for internet phone commuting costs.

608
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 8: And the company, you know, said back in August that

609
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 8: they're going to cut about fifteen thousand workers, so that

610
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 8: was part of the cost cutting, but they said, you

611
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 8: know what, we're keeping the coffee, got to keep employees

612
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 8: happy and caffeinated.

613
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: It's gonna it's going to be interesting. I mean, it's

614
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: a real seat. I mean we're making jokes about it, folks.

615
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 3: But Intel out of the Dow.

616
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's a big deal, A big deal. Mostly

617
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 4: it's a big deal. You move on.

618
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 3: But Sherwin Williams like, good morning Cleveland. I just don't

619
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 3: get it. Twenty some billion in revet who it's teen sweeens.

620
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 3: I mean, I just I'd love to know from the

621
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 3: Dow Jones industrial average people how they picked Sherwin for

622
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 3: thirty other companies.

623
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 4: I just you're bored. Is it formula we're not doing?

624
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 4: You're not noting off phones.

625
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: I'm really thinking about your last time I've been to

626
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: Sherwin Williams years ago. I probably have to paint do

627
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: some painting in there.

628
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 3: Probably to some pain this weekend. Missus girl will be

629
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 3: get the ladder at is well. Thank you Lisa for

630
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 3: the newspapers.

631
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 4: Greatly appreciate that.

632
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify

633
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

634
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

635
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

636
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

637
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal