Speaker 1: As you know, on the show, we usually dig into
Speaker 1: one story each day, but there's just so much news
Speaker 1: happening right now that we thought we'd try something different
Speaker 1: and close out the week by talking about some of
Speaker 1: the big stories that are in the news now and
Speaker 1: will be in the days and weeks ahead. I'm west
Speaker 1: Kasova today on the Big Take, the latest twists in
Speaker 1: the US presidential campaign, an escalation in Russia's war against Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and high stakes diplomacy between the US and China. Who
Speaker 1: better to sort all this out than my colleagues Roz
Speaker 1: Matheson in London, Craig Gordon in New York, and Nancy
Speaker 1: Cook here in Washington, And they'll also be hosting this
Speaker 1: podcast for several days later this month while I sneak
Speaker 1: off for a little summer vacation. Nance se maybe we
Speaker 1: should start by talking about the US presidential campaign. Joe
Speaker 1: Biden is going around selling his economic plan, and you
Speaker 1: think that would be a pretty good thing to.
Speaker 2: Sell, exactly, And it's basically an effort on the part
Speaker 2: of the White House to repackage their economic agenda, which
Speaker 2: they have passed the last two years amid fears of
Speaker 2: a recession falling a little bit, the inflation number is
Speaker 2: getting better, and basically to try to convince Americans that
Speaker 2: even though a majority of people still feel pretty bad
Speaker 2: about Biden's handling of the economy in particular, it's a
Speaker 2: way to try to convince them that actually there is
Speaker 2: an agenda here, both short term one and a long
Speaker 2: term one to transform the economy.
Speaker 3: I know we couldn't go back to the same failed
Speaker 3: policies when I ran, so I came into office determined
Speaker 3: to change the economic direction of this country, to move
Speaker 3: from trickle down economics. With everyone on Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 3: Financial Times began to call Bidenomics. I didn't come up
Speaker 3: with the name.
Speaker 2: And they're hoping that if they keep talking about and
Speaker 2: they keep sending Pete Buddha Judge to Michigan and Vice
Speaker 2: President Harris out on the road, that eventually people will
Speaker 2: come around to their way of thinking on it.
Speaker 1: And in an interview with Bloomberg, actually Janet Yellen, the
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary, talked about how the inflation fears have cooled
Speaker 1: down a little bit.
Speaker 4: For the United States. Growth is slowed, but our labor
Speaker 4: market continues to be quite strong. I don't expect a recession.
Speaker 4: I think that we're on a good path to bringing
Speaker 4: inflation down.
Speaker 2: We saw the latest inflation number drop a lot. I
Speaker 2: feel like the economic data is good right now, but Americans'
Speaker 2: perceptions of the broader economy are still not great. There
Speaker 2: was a poll in June by AP that showed that
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval rating on the economy was like in
Speaker 2: the thirties and percentage wise, that's lower than his sort
Speaker 2: of long standing approval rating of forty one percent, which
Speaker 2: is also not great. And so there's just been a
Speaker 2: real mismatch and they've just had a really hard time,
Speaker 2: not so much like passing policy, because they've passed a
Speaker 2: lot of sweeping policy that Republicans don't like but the
Speaker 2: Democrats should like. It's more that they've just had a
Speaker 2: really big problem with their sales job.
Speaker 1: Greig, how much of this do you think just has
Speaker 1: to do with that's about Biden himself, the idea that
Speaker 1: the message is pretty good, but people have concerns about
Speaker 1: the messenger.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's largely that that disconnect that Nancy
Speaker 5: just talked about in that poll. I guess I can't
Speaker 5: shake the feeling that people look at Joe Biden and
Speaker 5: he's an elderly gentleman, and they sort of question whether
Speaker 5: he understands their problem. I could imagine a certain amount
Speaker 5: of voters look at a Joe Biden and he's up
Speaker 5: there a bit in years and saying I don't think
Speaker 5: he really understands what it's like to go to work
Speaker 5: and you know, punch a clock, or my wife's a
Speaker 5: teacher and the hours are getting cut or different things
Speaker 5: like that. So I do think the message sort of
Speaker 5: like on paper. I agree it is quite strong. I
Speaker 5: don't plan it was like three point six percent. If
Speaker 5: you want a job, you can probably find a job
Speaker 5: right now. But it is not translating into personal popularity
Speaker 5: for Biden, and that be a very worrisome sign for
Speaker 5: the Democrats.
Speaker 2: I also think that Trump has like a big stage
Speaker 2: presence and Obama is a great orator, and so they
Speaker 2: both are like these big personalities that sort of have
Speaker 2: this movement like popularity with Democrats and Republicans, or at
Speaker 2: least their bases. And Joe Biden has been I think
Speaker 2: Democrats would say, like a totally fine competent president. He's
Speaker 2: gotten a lot more done than people thought he would,
Speaker 2: but he just makes a lot of gaffes. And you know,
Speaker 2: when he was asked about what he thought about biden
Speaker 2: Omics by a reporter at the White House recently, he
Speaker 2: said it was fine. And this is supposed to be
Speaker 2: like the cornerstone of his twenty twenty four election. So
Speaker 2: I just think that that is part of the problem too.
Speaker 1: Ros Biden has been spending quite a bit of time
Speaker 1: overseas too, talking with his counterparts. How is he perceived
Speaker 1: by other leaders.
Speaker 6: He's certainly seen by many leaders as someone that they
Speaker 6: can engage with, they can have a proper adult conversation with.
Speaker 6: You've seen that be on a much more even keel
Speaker 6: under the Biden administration. You see a desire to work
Speaker 6: together on a bunch of stuff, be a Russia's invasion
Speaker 6: of Ukraine and supporting Ukraine in taking a toughest dance
Speaker 6: on China on global issues like climate change. So certainly
Speaker 6: the atmosphere is friendlier, you'd have to say, in a
Speaker 6: bit more reliable, the sense of the US is a
Speaker 6: more of a reliable partner. But equally there is concern
Speaker 6: about Joe Biden. He's arguably a more protectionist president than
Speaker 6: Donald Trump was. He's certainly taken a tougher line on
Speaker 6: China and stuck to it, And so there's a concern
Speaker 6: about being pulled along by US foreign policy when it
Speaker 6: comes to China in particular, And so there are differences
Speaker 6: of opinion still. I guess what happens now is those
Speaker 6: can be at least articulated in a slightly more conducive environment.
Speaker 6: But you know, countries are really closely watching the build
Speaker 6: up to the US election campaign. I mean, US elections
Speaker 6: are always a really big deal for the rest of
Speaker 6: the world world, and we keep saying each election is
Speaker 6: going to be the biggest one. Yet I mean, twenty
Speaker 6: twenty four is going to be hugely consequential for the
Speaker 6: rest of the world. And the big question now that
Speaker 6: countries want to know is is it going to be
Speaker 6: Donald Trump versus Joe Biden Again.
Speaker 1: Well, so let's talk about that, because at the moment,
Speaker 1: it sure does look like it's going to be Joe
Speaker 1: Biden versus Donald Trump. Nancy more news out of Trump
Speaker 1: World just this week and not great for Trump and
Speaker 1: yet weirdly great for Trump.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there might be a third indictment for President Trump,
Speaker 2: and the second one from Special counsel Jacksmith and this
Speaker 2: one would have to do with Trump's involvement in January
Speaker 2: sixth in that insurrection, and so we're waiting for those charges.
Speaker 2: But so far, the indictments have not hurt Trump politically.
Speaker 2: If anything, they have really caused Republican primary voters to
Speaker 2: coalesce around him. And you know what that means for
Speaker 2: the general election, I think is a whole nother question.
Speaker 2: But right now he has a lot of support among
Speaker 2: Republican voters.
Speaker 5: Mostly what it tells me is that there's some very
Speaker 5: weird energy out there in the electorate right now. I
Speaker 5: think a lot of us who cover twenty sixteen, I
Speaker 5: didn't predict that Donald Trump would win. I know a
Speaker 5: lot of people say they did now, but a lot
Speaker 5: of us, you know, thought Hillary Clinton would kind of
Speaker 5: pull it out, And I guess I could sort of
Speaker 5: understand that twenty twenty four, you're looking at potentially the
Speaker 5: Republican presidential nominee being indicted four different times. And as
Speaker 5: we published in Bloomberg News, you know, the calendar of
Speaker 5: his potential trials kind of interweaves within some of the
Speaker 5: primary dates and early twenty four and mid twenty four,
Speaker 5: so you could have a person in a courtroom one day,
Speaker 5: on the campaign stump the next. And yet, as I say,
Speaker 5: thirty six thirty eight percent of the country seems prepared
Speaker 5: to make him the next president. That strikes me as
Speaker 5: kind of a primal scream, like there's something out there
Speaker 5: happening among people. But I do think there's a frustration
Speaker 5: with the choices. Many many polls have shown people aren't
Speaker 5: all that excited to have Biden Trump be the top
Speaker 5: of the ticket again in twenty four as they were
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty. And that is where I think some
Speaker 5: of this time talk about a potential third party candidacy
Speaker 5: is getting a little bit of oxygen, much more than
Speaker 5: I would have thought. It always feels like kind of
Speaker 5: a non starter. Americans are very hardwired to vote for
Speaker 5: the D or the R, the donkey or the elephant,
Speaker 5: the one their mother and father voted for and their
Speaker 5: grandmother and grandfather voted for. But when you have people
Speaker 5: like Robert F. Kennedy Junior, I feel like.
Speaker 3: I'm losing my country.
Speaker 1: I feel like Mike Party has got off the rails.
Speaker 5: It's become the Party of War. Obviously, you know historic
Speaker 5: name in American politics. You've got this no Labels movement
Speaker 5: with Senator Joe Manchin former Utah Governor John Huntsman sort
Speaker 5: of playing foot seat with the idea of being a
Speaker 5: third party ticket.
Speaker 7: They can't can't live without the independent, without that independent
Speaker 7: center left, center right, an independent Republican and independent Democrat.
Speaker 7: If they have another option, then they're in trouble. Both
Speaker 7: parties trouble they're going to have.
Speaker 5: Boy, I tell you as I say, I never would
Speaker 5: really think any of those people could win. But if
Speaker 5: I were the Democrats, I'd be very worried they could
Speaker 5: peel off votes to prevent Joe Biden from winning. And
Speaker 5: there that's the way Donald Trump gets back to the
Speaker 5: White House.
Speaker 1: Ros everything youre, Craig is saying kind of points to
Speaker 1: this big change in American politics over the last several years.
Speaker 1: The idea used to be that people voted their pocketbooks.
Speaker 1: That was the cliche. If you're doing well, you keep
Speaker 1: the person in office there and if you're not, then
Speaker 1: you look elsewhere. But that all seems to have been
Speaker 1: kind of tossed aside.
Speaker 6: Well, that's right, and that's the mystery again. If you're
Speaker 6: outside America trying to understand America right now, Craig was
Speaker 6: talking about the primal scream that's going on. I think
Speaker 6: the question really if you're outside America, is what the
Speaker 6: heck really is going to happen? And does Donald Trump
Speaker 6: have that truly lasting, deep bench of support.
Speaker 8: Is he actually going to make it over the line?
Speaker 6: And if so, why, and then of course the big
Speaker 6: question of what that would mean going forward. But from
Speaker 6: the outside, trying to understand his appeal is quite tricky
Speaker 6: and to understand how deep and lasting it is. And
Speaker 6: that's why you get a lot of officials from different
Speaker 6: countries already going into the US and they're going outside
Speaker 6: Washington doing their own research. They're talking to ordinary Americans saying,
Speaker 6: can you explain to us why you feel what you feel,
Speaker 6: what's important to you when it's going to come to
Speaker 6: the twenty twenty four election, What issues are going to
Speaker 6: matter to you?
Speaker 8: Why may you vote the way that you will?
Speaker 6: Because they're really trying to get their heads around the
Speaker 6: prospect of Donald Trump getting enough traction to get back
Speaker 6: to the White House.
Speaker 8: Nancy.
Speaker 1: There is this difference that, as Craig was talking about,
Speaker 1: between the primary voters and the general election, and of
Speaker 1: course we're in the middle of the froth the early
Speaker 1: season where everything seems possible. But if you look at
Speaker 1: that head to head matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: you get kind of a different story in how Americans
Speaker 1: feel about the two candidates.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that Democrats and people in the White
Speaker 2: House are very optimistic about running against Donald Trump. While
Speaker 2: he has this base of support of like thirty percent
Speaker 2: of Republican primary voters, he has had a hard time
Speaker 2: sort of expanding support beyond that, and Biden beat him
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. The midterms should have been much better
Speaker 2: for the Republicans given how high inflation was at the time,
Speaker 2: and it wasn't. You know, the Democrats almost held onto
Speaker 2: the House. It didn't go great for Republicans, and I
Speaker 2: think that they're expecting that again. Polling also shows that
Speaker 2: independence suburban people, women are very turned off by Trump
Speaker 2: at this point, and so I think that that will
Speaker 2: be something that we'll have to watch. I know from
Speaker 2: the Trump campaign that they really feel like they're going
Speaker 2: to try to go after young voters. They're going to
Speaker 2: try to increase the share of African Americans who vote
Speaker 2: for them and Hispanics. That's what they're targeting because I
Speaker 2: think they know that suburban women is sort of a
Speaker 2: lost cause at this point. But it's just going to
Speaker 2: be very interesting to see, you know, these two people
Speaker 2: if there's a rerun of twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: After the break, the fighting in Ukraine intensifies. We've been
Speaker 1: talking about domestic issues, but foreign policy is also a
Speaker 1: very big question in this campaign. The war in Ukraine
Speaker 1: is ongoing, ros just this week we've seen big developments
Speaker 1: in the war.
Speaker 8: Well that's right.
Speaker 6: I mean, the Ukrainian counter offensive has been going on
Speaker 6: for some weeks now and they've made some inroads against
Speaker 6: the Russian positions, but it's really slow going and the
Speaker 6: senses on the ground at least this will probably has
Speaker 6: some way to run, and that's leading to some big
Speaker 6: moves by Russia, for example, big missile attacks on the
Speaker 6: southern city of Odessa, trying to take out Black Sea
Speaker 6: infrastructure and so on, and equally more and more bolder
Speaker 6: attacks by Ukrainian supporters, at least a Ukraine doesn't claim
Speaker 6: these directly, but more overt attacks inside Russia, during attacks
Speaker 6: around the Greater Moscow area and so on, and so
Speaker 6: you're really seeing a pick up in the air activity
Speaker 6: again the use of missiles and drones, because things are
Speaker 6: pretty bogged down on the ground, and the sense is
Speaker 6: that even with all the military equipment that's been coming
Speaker 6: in and a lot of it's still to come, particularly
Speaker 6: from countries like the US and supporters in Europe, is
Speaker 6: that the war's going to be slow going for quite
Speaker 6: some time yet. And that raises the question again, at
Speaker 6: what point do nations like the US start to push
Speaker 6: harder for Ukraine to agree to come to the table
Speaker 6: and have some kind of negotiated conversation with Russia on it?
Speaker 8: Is Ukraine willing to do that?
Speaker 6: Of course, Vladimir Zelynsky, the president, has said that he
Speaker 6: will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory. Is he
Speaker 6: prepared at some point to sit down and talk? Is
Speaker 6: the Russian president Vladimir Putin prepared to do so? But
Speaker 6: as this goes on and on into the rest of
Speaker 6: this year, do the voices of the US and others
Speaker 6: become louder about the need to at least be prepared
Speaker 6: to have a conversation.
Speaker 1: Craig, We're starting to see that, Bubba. This has been
Speaker 1: an area where most Democrats and Republicans have agreed that
Speaker 1: support for Ukraine is important. On the far right, there
Speaker 1: has been this feeling that we should stop funding the
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine.
Speaker 5: I've been surprised actually at how long voters and people
Speaker 5: talking to polsters seem to have been hanging tough on
Speaker 5: the war in Ukraine. I know the support is slightly
Speaker 5: down in some of the more recent polls, but right now,
Speaker 5: I don't think Joe Biden or Mitch McConnell, who's been
Speaker 5: a vocal supporter of military a to Ukraine, has paid
Speaker 5: any sort of price for that. But these things don't
Speaker 5: last forever. As people start to kind of tally up
Speaker 5: the cost and we're into multi multi billions of dollars already,
Speaker 5: could that money be better spent at home, et cetera.
Speaker 5: I think it's something that Biden probably has to watch
Speaker 5: very carefully as he's out on the campaign trail and
Speaker 5: he's starting to think about these issues heading into twenty four.
Speaker 5: But you're right, most of the opposition inside the United
Speaker 5: States has come from pretty far right. Mac Gaates, Marjorie
Speaker 5: Taylor Green, Lauren Bobert, all around a bill that you know,
Speaker 5: essentially cut off the aid.
Speaker 1: The Biden administration is sleep walking our great country into
Speaker 1: a world.
Speaker 9: War, and the American people are fed up and tired
Speaker 9: of the hard earned tax dollars that they pay to
Speaker 9: our government being spent in foreign lands and foreign countries
Speaker 9: for foreign causes and foreign people.
Speaker 5: That's a pretty small number of people, and even in
Speaker 5: a Republican party that has gone pretty far to the rate,
Speaker 5: they're even farther to the right than that. So I
Speaker 5: think right now the opposition has been contained to a
Speaker 5: fairly small, small but vocal group. But I feel like
Speaker 5: with every passing day, especially as the Ukraine counter offensive
Speaker 5: seems to have bogged down a bit, you do feel
Speaker 5: like those questions are going to be starting to be
Speaker 5: asked more loudly inside the halls of Congress.
Speaker 6: It was interesting that you did see some of that
Speaker 6: start to bubble up at the NATO summit that was
Speaker 6: held in Bilnia, Lithuania last week, a slight sense of
Speaker 6: public exasperation coming in. They've kept that really behind closed
Speaker 6: doors most of the time. But Zelensky, before he came TOUS,
Speaker 6: was quite vocal in his complaints about what he saw
Speaker 6: as slow walking Ukraine's desire to join NATO, and in turn,
Speaker 6: you saw some countries, including the outgoing British Defense Secretary
Speaker 6: Ben Wallace saying, hang on, you could be a bit
Speaker 6: more grateful. We've sent you a lot of military equipment,
Speaker 6: We've sent you loads of financial aid. We're doing everything
Speaker 6: we can, and we don't really like being spoken to
Speaker 6: that way. And you saw that with some other countries also,
Speaker 6: So there is that slight sense of we're doing everything
Speaker 6: we can and possibly risking some fatigue, and so that's
Speaker 6: starting to creep up, not just in the US, but
Speaker 6: elsewhere in Europe also.
Speaker 1: Nancy, do you think that that small number of people
Speaker 1: who are really pushing this skepticism about funding Ukraine and
Speaker 1: saying that money should be spent at home can start
Speaker 1: to have an influence and that it can grow, especially
Speaker 1: if it just keeps being repeated on the rate.
Speaker 2: So the war in Ukraine, I think will continue and
Speaker 2: become an even bigger thing among Republican primary voters. Donald
Speaker 2: Trump talking about how he wants to settle the war
Speaker 2: in Ukraine in a day.
Speaker 8: Let me just put it a diice away.
Speaker 3: If I'm president, I will have that war settled in
Speaker 3: one day. Twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was asked about this recently and
Speaker 2: did not commit to sort of giving more money to
Speaker 2: Ukraine in the future. He sort of dodged the question.
Speaker 2: So I think that the Republican candidates are definitely on
Speaker 2: the side of perhaps not supporting Ukraine at all or
Speaker 2: definitely not in the long run. And I think that
Speaker 2: once we hit the election and whoever's the Republican nominee
Speaker 2: is talking about this against Biden, it will be much
Speaker 2: more of a talking point because I think that the
Speaker 2: White House thinks that Biden's ability to hold together NATO
Speaker 2: and support the war in Ukraine and stand up to
Speaker 2: putin are assets and selling points and an example of
Speaker 2: his long standing foreign policy credentials and leadership on the
Speaker 2: world stage. And so I think that it will just
Speaker 2: come up naturally because it will be a contrast between
Speaker 2: the two parties.
Speaker 1: Ros and other big development was that Russia pulled out
Speaker 1: of this very important Green deal.
Speaker 6: Well, that's right, So this is a deal that was
Speaker 6: set up to ensure that Ukrainian grain, which is really
Speaker 6: important to the global market and particularly to countries in
Speaker 6: places like Africa, could continue to come out of the
Speaker 6: black seaports even with the war going on. So safe
Speaker 6: passage for ships, and it was negotiated between the UN, Russia,
Speaker 6: Ukraine and via Turkey and that's been operating with some
Speaker 6: success until recently, just in the last month or two,
Speaker 6: things have really slowed down and very few ships have
Speaker 6: been getting out. So essentially it was on a slow
Speaker 6: crawl anyway, and now we've had Russia saying it wasn't
Speaker 6: going to renew the deal, and that means that ships
Speaker 6: can't be guaranteed safe passage at all. What we've been
Speaker 6: reporting is that Ukraine is saying we'll find a way
Speaker 6: to get this done anyway. We're going to try and
Speaker 6: negotiate to get ships to come. The reality is that
Speaker 6: without insurance, shippers aren't going to take that risk, and
Speaker 6: certainly they're not going to band together in a convoy.
Speaker 6: There's been taught before about getting naval ships to be escorts.
Speaker 6: That's never gone anywhere, and so what you're seeing is
Speaker 6: really an impact on the global grain market. As a result,
Speaker 6: you're seeing increases in prices for things like wheat, for example,
Speaker 6: and the concern about the knock on effect to supply
Speaker 6: in many countries, but there's not with that risk. Also
Speaker 6: for Vladimir Putin in this because he can be blamed
Speaker 6: for doing this by these countries, and he's been seeking
Speaker 6: to keep them on side over his war in Ukraine.
Speaker 6: So we're talking countries in Africa again, and North Africa
Speaker 6: in particular, and if they turn their gaze to him,
Speaker 6: that's not particularly good for Russia. So it's probably in
Speaker 6: his interest at some point to come back to this deal,
Speaker 6: but not in the next couple of months at.
Speaker 1: Least when we come back the US in China try
Speaker 1: to cool things off Nancy. Another country very top of
Speaker 1: mind always, of course, is China, and there's been a
Speaker 1: lot of back and forth between the US and China,
Speaker 1: which really shows how important the US China relationship is
Speaker 1: to both nations economies and really the world economy.
Speaker 2: The US China relationship in the last year and a
Speaker 2: half got to be very poor and very very tense.
Speaker 2: What has happened is that the US is just trying
Speaker 2: to make it a little bit less frosty, and so
Speaker 2: they have sent Anthony Blincoln, the Secretary of State. Treasury
Speaker 2: Secretary Janet Yellen was just there. John Kerry, who is
Speaker 2: a very key climate advisor, was there. And the purpose
Speaker 2: of these visits is really to try to talk about
Speaker 2: some key shared issues like climate change and the economy
Speaker 2: and the supply chain, and obviously national security. But it's
Speaker 2: also just to sort of make sure that there's a
Speaker 2: dialogue between the US and China again, because our economies
Speaker 2: are so intertwined and there are such key national security
Speaker 2: questions that affect both countries, like the war in Ukraine,
Speaker 2: that I think that the Biden administration is really just
Speaker 2: trying to make sure we're talking to them.
Speaker 9: Ras.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden came in talking really tough about China, and
Speaker 1: she pushed back pretty hard. Now it seems like Biden
Speaker 1: thought maybe he pushed a little too hard, and because
Speaker 1: China's economy is in turmoil, it seems that she himself
Speaker 1: also has an incentive to kind of come back to
Speaker 1: the devil.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's interesting seeing the way that Sijing Ping is
Speaker 6: talking about both his own economy and the relationship with
Speaker 6: the US because his economy is in trouble.
Speaker 8: That's clear.
Speaker 6: There are slow downs across the board. There's wobbles again
Speaker 6: in the property sector, and of course for Sieging Ping,
Speaker 6: his hold on power is absolutely anchored in the view
Speaker 6: amongst ordinary Chinese people that the Communist Party will deliver
Speaker 6: stability and prosperity across the board.
Speaker 8: And so he really needs.
Speaker 6: To get his economy moving again, and that's a really
Speaker 6: big incentive for him to open up China a bit
Speaker 6: more economically, to encourage investment to come in, to show
Speaker 6: that he's supporting the private sector, and that involves conversations
Speaker 6: with the US and perhaps encouraging Joe Biden if possible
Speaker 6: to loosen some of the penalties that he's put on China,
Speaker 6: but equally to sort of do not discourage American companies
Speaker 6: from going in to China and doing business. And so
Speaker 6: for Siegingping, the biggest imperative right now is that he
Speaker 6: needs to get his economy moving and so you could
Speaker 6: really see a knock on effect as a result in
Speaker 6: terms of the outreach that China may do to the US.
Speaker 5: Right, so something earlier in this session that when I
Speaker 5: heard her say, it has struck me. But she's absolutely right.
Speaker 5: Biden has been more protectionist to Donald Trump. And we
Speaker 5: all remember Donald Trump's trade war on China, but Biden
Speaker 5: has taken it to new levels. And even this latest
Speaker 5: idea of sort of limiting the outbound investment into China.
Speaker 5: But again, Jenny Ellen told Bloomberg News this week that
Speaker 5: this billd are going to put forward, or this idea
Speaker 5: is going to be very narrowly, terribly probably not start
Speaker 5: till twenty twenty four, only affect you know, super like
Speaker 5: high security things like semiconductors, leaving alone the energy and
Speaker 5: biotech sectors. And it does really feel like Biden talked
Speaker 5: so tough that he kind of looked into the abyss
Speaker 5: a little bit and realized that the US economy and
Speaker 5: the Chinese economy are just completely interconnected and might have
Speaker 5: been being too tough. And so you definitely feel like
Speaker 5: a little bit that they're kind of pulling the punch back.
Speaker 5: Obviously sending all those very high level officials. Even this
Speaker 5: one act that was meant to really, you know, crack
Speaker 5: down on investment in China is going to be sounds
Speaker 5: like a bit watered down. I think Joe Biden again
Speaker 5: heading into an election where the economy and bidenomictually going
Speaker 5: to be front and center. He needs Chinese the United States,
Speaker 5: and it went to kind of a bad place, and
Speaker 5: you do have a sense both countries are starting to
Speaker 5: try to reel it back. We'll see if they can.
Speaker 5: The one place that seems like they haven't done as
Speaker 5: good a job reeling it back. As on the military
Speaker 5: sort of military to military communications. You know, we're flying
Speaker 5: all over the Child China Sea and so are they,
Speaker 5: and it always seems like, you know, we're one plane
Speaker 5: bump away from a really, really bad situation. So I'm
Speaker 5: sure that's on the front of Biden's mind and trying
Speaker 5: to get some of those military to military connections re
Speaker 5: established and re established.
Speaker 1: Quickly and Nancy in the US, that's a kind of
Speaker 1: delicate balance for any candidate that you need to talk
Speaker 1: tough on China because that's just sort of the expectation,
Speaker 1: and yet you also have to make sure that you're
Speaker 1: not being so out front that China takes that as
Speaker 1: an act of hostility. I guess right.
Speaker 2: And I think that the rhetoric on Taiwan has really
Speaker 2: sort of hurt the Biden g relationship quite a bit.
Speaker 2: I was with Biden in Japan, I don't know, maybe
Speaker 2: a year and a half ago, where he sort of
Speaker 2: indicated that yes, the US potentially would send troops into
Speaker 2: Taiwan if China invaded them. You know, that really got
Speaker 2: China's backup, and so I think that these military things
Speaker 2: have just really, you know, hurt the relationship as well.
Speaker 1: And Roz, how does China view all of that tough talk?
Speaker 1: Obviously the Chinese do the same thing back well.
Speaker 6: Certainly China has an appreciation of talking to your domestic audience,
Speaker 6: because that's really what Ciging Ping and other senior officials
Speaker 6: are doing all the time. Everything they say is aimed
Speaker 6: at that domestic audience. So they can see the need
Speaker 6: for US politicians to also do that, particularly coming into
Speaker 6: the election cycle. So they're probably going to be a
Speaker 6: bit forgiving of some of that. The question is when
Speaker 6: the attacks are seen to be very personal, and particularly
Speaker 6: about Siging Ping directly, and that's the place that you
Speaker 6: just don't really go. And Joe Biden's recent comment about
Speaker 6: Ciging Ping, we're in the middle of talking, he suddenly
Speaker 6: essentially called Siging Ping a dictator. That's the sort of
Speaker 6: thing that can really cause a problem in the relationship
Speaker 6: because you're coming directly for Ciging Ping, You're questioning his authority,
Speaker 6: you're questioning the way he governs his country, and that's
Speaker 6: really the no fly zone probably for China. The rest
Speaker 6: of it they can overlook a bit, they can understand
Speaker 6: the imperative, but it's when they make personal remarks about
Speaker 6: their leader.
Speaker 1: Well, we've touched on a bunch of news stories happening
Speaker 1: right now. We could go on for another couple of
Speaker 1: hours to try to even get our arms around everything
Speaker 1: else that's happening. So let me just ask each of
Speaker 1: you what is a story that you're keeping a close
Speaker 1: eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Craig, I'll
Speaker 1: ask you first.
Speaker 5: Yeah, not to be repetitive, but I am watching the
Speaker 5: third party movement closely. A third person who's been talking
Speaker 5: about that is Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who was, you know,
Speaker 5: pretty popular in a pretty democratic state. He put out
Speaker 5: like an ad the other day that Nancy Cook actually
Speaker 5: flagged it to us, and it looks for all the
Speaker 5: world like a campaign announcement of a guy who might
Speaker 5: run for president.
Speaker 2: I've always been an underdog, and people have always counted
Speaker 2: us out, but every single time we've beaten the office.
Speaker 5: He looked at possibly running for President's Republican in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four, took himself out of that race. But you've
Speaker 5: got three pretty prominent politicians in you know, the West
Speaker 5: Virginia Senator Joe Manchin you tah Governor John Huntsman, who
Speaker 5: is a kind of a heart throb of the moderates,
Speaker 5: was our China ambassador for a bit, and then of
Speaker 5: course Larry Hogan there in Maryland. And they are doing
Speaker 5: everything you would do if you wanted to run for president.
Speaker 5: Does that mean they will? I don't know. I know
Speaker 5: a lot of Democrats are kind of freaking out about it,
Speaker 5: and are you know, trying to side channel them to say, hey,
Speaker 5: what are you doing. I don't think a lot of
Speaker 5: Donald Trump voters are going to necessarily go with any
Speaker 5: of the three of those gentlemen Mansion, Huntsmen or Hogan.
Speaker 5: But a lot of moderates or even disaffected Democrats might,
Speaker 5: you know, might say, hey, let's give it something else
Speaker 5: to try this year. If any of them were to
Speaker 5: put together a ticket, and Ron I would argue a
Speaker 5: vote for that ticket is a vote for Donald Trump,
Speaker 5: because it's essentially a vote against Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: Rise, how about you.
Speaker 6: I'm actually watching the weather quite closely. We've got global
Speaker 6: heat waves, We've got very very extremes of weather all
Speaker 6: around the world, and looking at the knock on effect
Speaker 6: of that. I mean, there are political ramifications, but also
Speaker 6: there are economic ramifications. There are big impacts potentially on
Speaker 6: food supply, food prices, inflation. We're seeing signs of unresting
Speaker 6: countries like Nigeria and Kenya, which are related very much
Speaker 6: to food prices and food supply, and you can sort
Speaker 6: of see that may even feed into the Spanish election
Speaker 6: this weekend, where we could get the emergence of quite
Speaker 6: a far right government from that election. And so just
Speaker 6: looking at the way that the weather is actually playing
Speaker 6: into politics and economics around the world, that's something I've
Speaker 6: very much got.
Speaker 8: Dare I say a weather ion, Nancy.
Speaker 2: Margine, to see what happens with abortion in the US.
Speaker 2: You know, Democrats really want to use abortion rates as
Speaker 2: a very galvanizing force. In twenty twenty four, Republican candidates
Speaker 2: are sort of shying away from saying that they would
Speaker 2: support a national abortion ban, some of them are. But
Speaker 2: meanwhile states are just passing this whole crazy patchwork of
Speaker 2: restrictions and so the country's just really be divided into
Speaker 2: two different countries on that issue, and I think it's
Speaker 2: just going to continue.
Speaker 1: Nancy Roz Craig always great talking to you.
Speaker 8: Thanks for having us, Thank you, Thank you.
Speaker 1: Wes, thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take.
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