1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: As you know, on the show, we usually dig into 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: one story each day, but there's just so much news 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: happening right now that we thought we'd try something different 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: and close out the week by talking about some of 5 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the big stories that are in the news now and 6 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: will be in the days and weeks ahead. I'm west 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: Kasova today on the Big Take, the latest twists in 8 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: the US presidential campaign, an escalation in Russia's war against Ukraine, 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: and high stakes diplomacy between the US and China. Who 10 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: better to sort all this out than my colleagues Roz 11 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: Matheson in London, Craig Gordon in New York, and Nancy 12 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: Cook here in Washington, And they'll also be hosting this 13 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: podcast for several days later this month while I sneak 14 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: off for a little summer vacation. Nance se maybe we 15 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:04,039 Speaker 1: should start by talking about the US presidential campaign. Joe 16 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 1: Biden is going around selling his economic plan, and you 17 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: think that would be a pretty good thing to. 18 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: Sell, exactly, And it's basically an effort on the part 19 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: of the White House to repackage their economic agenda, which 20 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: they have passed the last two years amid fears of 21 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 2: a recession falling a little bit, the inflation number is 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 2: getting better, and basically to try to convince Americans that 23 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: even though a majority of people still feel pretty bad 24 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 2: about Biden's handling of the economy in particular, it's a 25 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 2: way to try to convince them that actually there is 26 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: an agenda here, both short term one and a long 27 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 2: term one to transform the economy. 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: I know we couldn't go back to the same failed 29 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: policies when I ran, so I came into office determined 30 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 3: to change the economic direction of this country, to move 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: from trickle down economics. With everyone on Wall Street Journal, 32 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 3: Financial Times began to call Bidenomics. I didn't come up 33 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 3: with the name. 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: And they're hoping that if they keep talking about and 35 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 2: they keep sending Pete Buddha Judge to Michigan and Vice 36 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: President Harris out on the road, that eventually people will 37 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: come around to their way of thinking on it. 38 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: And in an interview with Bloomberg, actually Janet Yellen, the 39 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary, talked about how the inflation fears have cooled 40 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: down a little bit. 41 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 4: For the United States. Growth is slowed, but our labor 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:28,679 Speaker 4: market continues to be quite strong. I don't expect a recession. 43 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 4: I think that we're on a good path to bringing 44 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 4: inflation down. 45 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 2: We saw the latest inflation number drop a lot. I 46 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: feel like the economic data is good right now, but Americans' 47 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: perceptions of the broader economy are still not great. There 48 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: was a poll in June by AP that showed that 49 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval rating on the economy was like in 50 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 2: the thirties and percentage wise, that's lower than his sort 51 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: of long standing approval rating of forty one percent, which 52 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: is also not great. And so there's just been a 53 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 2: real mismatch and they've just had a really hard time, 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 2: not so much like passing policy, because they've passed a 55 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 2: lot of sweeping policy that Republicans don't like but the 56 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 2: Democrats should like. It's more that they've just had a 57 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: really big problem with their sales job. 58 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: Greig, how much of this do you think just has 59 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: to do with that's about Biden himself, the idea that 60 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: the message is pretty good, but people have concerns about 61 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: the messenger. 62 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's largely that that disconnect that Nancy 63 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 5: just talked about in that poll. I guess I can't 64 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 5: shake the feeling that people look at Joe Biden and 65 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 5: he's an elderly gentleman, and they sort of question whether 66 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 5: he understands their problem. I could imagine a certain amount 67 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 5: of voters look at a Joe Biden and he's up 68 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 5: there a bit in years and saying I don't think 69 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 5: he really understands what it's like to go to work 70 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 5: and you know, punch a clock, or my wife's a 71 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 5: teacher and the hours are getting cut or different things 72 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 5: like that. So I do think the message sort of 73 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 5: like on paper. I agree it is quite strong. I 74 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 5: don't plan it was like three point six percent. If 75 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 5: you want a job, you can probably find a job 76 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 5: right now. But it is not translating into personal popularity 77 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 5: for Biden, and that be a very worrisome sign for 78 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 5: the Democrats. 79 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: I also think that Trump has like a big stage 80 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: presence and Obama is a great orator, and so they 81 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 2: both are like these big personalities that sort of have 82 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: this movement like popularity with Democrats and Republicans, or at 83 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 2: least their bases. And Joe Biden has been I think 84 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 2: Democrats would say, like a totally fine competent president. He's 85 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: gotten a lot more done than people thought he would, 86 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 2: but he just makes a lot of gaffes. And you know, 87 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 2: when he was asked about what he thought about biden 88 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 2: Omics by a reporter at the White House recently, he 89 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 2: said it was fine. And this is supposed to be 90 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 2: like the cornerstone of his twenty twenty four election. So 91 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: I just think that that is part of the problem too. 92 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: Ros Biden has been spending quite a bit of time 93 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: overseas too, talking with his counterparts. How is he perceived 94 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: by other leaders. 95 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 6: He's certainly seen by many leaders as someone that they 96 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 6: can engage with, they can have a proper adult conversation with. 97 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 6: You've seen that be on a much more even keel 98 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 6: under the Biden administration. You see a desire to work 99 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 6: together on a bunch of stuff, be a Russia's invasion 100 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 6: of Ukraine and supporting Ukraine in taking a toughest dance 101 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 6: on China on global issues like climate change. So certainly 102 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 6: the atmosphere is friendlier, you'd have to say, in a 103 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 6: bit more reliable, the sense of the US is a 104 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 6: more of a reliable partner. But equally there is concern 105 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 6: about Joe Biden. He's arguably a more protectionist president than 106 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 6: Donald Trump was. He's certainly taken a tougher line on 107 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 6: China and stuck to it, And so there's a concern 108 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 6: about being pulled along by US foreign policy when it 109 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 6: comes to China in particular, And so there are differences 110 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 6: of opinion still. I guess what happens now is those 111 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 6: can be at least articulated in a slightly more conducive environment. 112 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 6: But you know, countries are really closely watching the build 113 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 6: up to the US election campaign. I mean, US elections 114 00:05:57,800 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 6: are always a really big deal for the rest of 115 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 6: the world world, and we keep saying each election is 116 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 6: going to be the biggest one. Yet I mean, twenty 117 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 6: twenty four is going to be hugely consequential for the 118 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 6: rest of the world. And the big question now that 119 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 6: countries want to know is is it going to be 120 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 6: Donald Trump versus Joe Biden Again. 121 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: Well, so let's talk about that, because at the moment, 122 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: it sure does look like it's going to be Joe 123 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: Biden versus Donald Trump. Nancy more news out of Trump 124 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: World just this week and not great for Trump and 125 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: yet weirdly great for Trump. 126 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, there might be a third indictment for President Trump, 127 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 2: and the second one from Special counsel Jacksmith and this 128 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: one would have to do with Trump's involvement in January 129 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 2: sixth in that insurrection, and so we're waiting for those charges. 130 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 2: But so far, the indictments have not hurt Trump politically. 131 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 2: If anything, they have really caused Republican primary voters to 132 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: coalesce around him. And you know what that means for 133 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: the general election, I think is a whole nother question. 134 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 2: But right now he has a lot of support among 135 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: Republican voters. 136 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 5: Mostly what it tells me is that there's some very 137 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 5: weird energy out there in the electorate right now. I 138 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 5: think a lot of us who cover twenty sixteen, I 139 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 5: didn't predict that Donald Trump would win. I know a 140 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: lot of people say they did now, but a lot 141 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 5: of us, you know, thought Hillary Clinton would kind of 142 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 5: pull it out, And I guess I could sort of 143 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 5: understand that twenty twenty four, you're looking at potentially the 144 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 5: Republican presidential nominee being indicted four different times. And as 145 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 5: we published in Bloomberg News, you know, the calendar of 146 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 5: his potential trials kind of interweaves within some of the 147 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 5: primary dates and early twenty four and mid twenty four, 148 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 5: so you could have a person in a courtroom one day, 149 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 5: on the campaign stump the next. And yet, as I say, 150 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 5: thirty six thirty eight percent of the country seems prepared 151 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 5: to make him the next president. That strikes me as 152 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 5: kind of a primal scream, like there's something out there 153 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 5: happening among people. But I do think there's a frustration 154 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 5: with the choices. Many many polls have shown people aren't 155 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 5: all that excited to have Biden Trump be the top 156 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 5: of the ticket again in twenty four as they were 157 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty. And that is where I think some 158 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 5: of this time talk about a potential third party candidacy 159 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 5: is getting a little bit of oxygen, much more than 160 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 5: I would have thought. It always feels like kind of 161 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 5: a non starter. Americans are very hardwired to vote for 162 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 5: the D or the R, the donkey or the elephant, 163 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 5: the one their mother and father voted for and their 164 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 5: grandmother and grandfather voted for. But when you have people 165 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 5: like Robert F. Kennedy Junior, I feel like. 166 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 3: I'm losing my country. 167 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: I feel like Mike Party has got off the rails. 168 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 5: It's become the Party of War. Obviously, you know historic 169 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 5: name in American politics. You've got this no Labels movement 170 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 5: with Senator Joe Manchin former Utah Governor John Huntsman sort 171 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 5: of playing foot seat with the idea of being a 172 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 5: third party ticket. 173 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 7: They can't can't live without the independent, without that independent 174 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 7: center left, center right, an independent Republican and independent Democrat. 175 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 7: If they have another option, then they're in trouble. Both 176 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 7: parties trouble they're going to have. 177 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 5: Boy, I tell you as I say, I never would 178 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 5: really think any of those people could win. But if 179 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 5: I were the Democrats, I'd be very worried they could 180 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 5: peel off votes to prevent Joe Biden from winning. And 181 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 5: there that's the way Donald Trump gets back to the 182 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 5: White House. 183 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: Ros everything youre, Craig is saying kind of points to 184 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: this big change in American politics over the last several years. 185 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: The idea used to be that people voted their pocketbooks. 186 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: That was the cliche. If you're doing well, you keep 187 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 1: the person in office there and if you're not, then 188 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: you look elsewhere. But that all seems to have been 189 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: kind of tossed aside. 190 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 6: Well, that's right, and that's the mystery again. If you're 191 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 6: outside America trying to understand America right now, Craig was 192 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 6: talking about the primal scream that's going on. I think 193 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 6: the question really if you're outside America, is what the 194 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 6: heck really is going to happen? And does Donald Trump 195 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 6: have that truly lasting, deep bench of support. 196 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 8: Is he actually going to make it over the line? 197 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 6: And if so, why, and then of course the big 198 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 6: question of what that would mean going forward. But from 199 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 6: the outside, trying to understand his appeal is quite tricky 200 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 6: and to understand how deep and lasting it is. And 201 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 6: that's why you get a lot of officials from different 202 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 6: countries already going into the US and they're going outside 203 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 6: Washington doing their own research. They're talking to ordinary Americans saying, 204 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 6: can you explain to us why you feel what you feel, 205 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 6: what's important to you when it's going to come to 206 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 6: the twenty twenty four election, What issues are going to 207 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 6: matter to you? 208 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 8: Why may you vote the way that you will? 209 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 6: Because they're really trying to get their heads around the 210 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 6: prospect of Donald Trump getting enough traction to get back 211 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 6: to the White House. 212 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 8: Nancy. 213 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: There is this difference that, as Craig was talking about, 214 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: between the primary voters and the general election, and of 215 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: course we're in the middle of the froth the early 216 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 1: season where everything seems possible. But if you look at 217 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: that head to head matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 218 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: you get kind of a different story in how Americans 219 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: feel about the two candidates. 220 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that Democrats and people in the White 221 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 2: House are very optimistic about running against Donald Trump. While 222 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: he has this base of support of like thirty percent 223 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 2: of Republican primary voters, he has had a hard time 224 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 2: sort of expanding support beyond that, and Biden beat him 225 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. The midterms should have been much better 226 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: for the Republicans given how high inflation was at the time, 227 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 2: and it wasn't. You know, the Democrats almost held onto 228 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,559 Speaker 2: the House. It didn't go great for Republicans, and I 229 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 2: think that they're expecting that again. Polling also shows that 230 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 2: independence suburban people, women are very turned off by Trump 231 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: at this point, and so I think that that will 232 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 2: be something that we'll have to watch. I know from 233 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 2: the Trump campaign that they really feel like they're going 234 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 2: to try to go after young voters. They're going to 235 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 2: try to increase the share of African Americans who vote 236 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 2: for them and Hispanics. That's what they're targeting because I 237 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: think they know that suburban women is sort of a 238 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 2: lost cause at this point. But it's just going to 239 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 2: be very interesting to see, you know, these two people 240 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 2: if there's a rerun of twenty twenty. 241 00:11:55,360 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: After the break, the fighting in Ukraine intensifies. We've been 242 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: talking about domestic issues, but foreign policy is also a 243 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:14,079 Speaker 1: very big question in this campaign. The war in Ukraine 244 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: is ongoing, ros just this week we've seen big developments 245 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 1: in the war. 246 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 8: Well that's right. 247 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 6: I mean, the Ukrainian counter offensive has been going on 248 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 6: for some weeks now and they've made some inroads against 249 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 6: the Russian positions, but it's really slow going and the 250 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 6: senses on the ground at least this will probably has 251 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 6: some way to run, and that's leading to some big 252 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 6: moves by Russia, for example, big missile attacks on the 253 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 6: southern city of Odessa, trying to take out Black Sea 254 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 6: infrastructure and so on, and equally more and more bolder 255 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 6: attacks by Ukrainian supporters, at least a Ukraine doesn't claim 256 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 6: these directly, but more overt attacks inside Russia, during attacks 257 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 6: around the Greater Moscow area and so on, and so 258 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 6: you're really seeing a pick up in the air activity 259 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 6: again the use of missiles and drones, because things are 260 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 6: pretty bogged down on the ground, and the sense is 261 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 6: that even with all the military equipment that's been coming 262 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 6: in and a lot of it's still to come, particularly 263 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 6: from countries like the US and supporters in Europe, is 264 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 6: that the war's going to be slow going for quite 265 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 6: some time yet. And that raises the question again, at 266 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 6: what point do nations like the US start to push 267 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 6: harder for Ukraine to agree to come to the table 268 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 6: and have some kind of negotiated conversation with Russia on it? 269 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 8: Is Ukraine willing to do that? 270 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 6: Of course, Vladimir Zelynsky, the president, has said that he 271 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 6: will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory. Is he 272 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 6: prepared at some point to sit down and talk? Is 273 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 6: the Russian president Vladimir Putin prepared to do so? But 274 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 6: as this goes on and on into the rest of 275 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 6: this year, do the voices of the US and others 276 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 6: become louder about the need to at least be prepared 277 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 6: to have a conversation. 278 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: Craig, We're starting to see that, Bubba. This has been 279 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: an area where most Democrats and Republicans have agreed that 280 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: support for Ukraine is important. On the far right, there 281 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: has been this feeling that we should stop funding the 282 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. 283 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 5: I've been surprised actually at how long voters and people 284 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 5: talking to polsters seem to have been hanging tough on 285 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 5: the war in Ukraine. I know the support is slightly 286 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 5: down in some of the more recent polls, but right now, 287 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 5: I don't think Joe Biden or Mitch McConnell, who's been 288 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 5: a vocal supporter of military a to Ukraine, has paid 289 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 5: any sort of price for that. But these things don't 290 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 5: last forever. As people start to kind of tally up 291 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 5: the cost and we're into multi multi billions of dollars already, 292 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 5: could that money be better spent at home, et cetera. 293 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 5: I think it's something that Biden probably has to watch 294 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 5: very carefully as he's out on the campaign trail and 295 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 5: he's starting to think about these issues heading into twenty four. 296 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 5: But you're right, most of the opposition inside the United 297 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 5: States has come from pretty far right. Mac Gaates, Marjorie 298 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 5: Taylor Green, Lauren Bobert, all around a bill that you know, 299 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 5: essentially cut off the aid. 300 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: The Biden administration is sleep walking our great country into 301 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: a world. 302 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 9: War, and the American people are fed up and tired 303 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 9: of the hard earned tax dollars that they pay to 304 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 9: our government being spent in foreign lands and foreign countries 305 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 9: for foreign causes and foreign people. 306 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 5: That's a pretty small number of people, and even in 307 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 5: a Republican party that has gone pretty far to the rate, 308 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 5: they're even farther to the right than that. So I 309 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 5: think right now the opposition has been contained to a 310 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 5: fairly small, small but vocal group. But I feel like 311 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 5: with every passing day, especially as the Ukraine counter offensive 312 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 5: seems to have bogged down a bit, you do feel 313 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 5: like those questions are going to be starting to be 314 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 5: asked more loudly inside the halls of Congress. 315 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 6: It was interesting that you did see some of that 316 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 6: start to bubble up at the NATO summit that was 317 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 6: held in Bilnia, Lithuania last week, a slight sense of 318 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 6: public exasperation coming in. They've kept that really behind closed 319 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 6: doors most of the time. But Zelensky, before he came TOUS, 320 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 6: was quite vocal in his complaints about what he saw 321 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 6: as slow walking Ukraine's desire to join NATO, and in turn, 322 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 6: you saw some countries, including the outgoing British Defense Secretary 323 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 6: Ben Wallace saying, hang on, you could be a bit 324 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 6: more grateful. We've sent you a lot of military equipment, 325 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 6: We've sent you loads of financial aid. We're doing everything 326 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 6: we can, and we don't really like being spoken to 327 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 6: that way. And you saw that with some other countries also, 328 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 6: So there is that slight sense of we're doing everything 329 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 6: we can and possibly risking some fatigue, and so that's 330 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 6: starting to creep up, not just in the US, but 331 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 6: elsewhere in Europe also. 332 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: Nancy, do you think that that small number of people 333 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 1: who are really pushing this skepticism about funding Ukraine and 334 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: saying that money should be spent at home can start 335 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: to have an influence and that it can grow, especially 336 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: if it just keeps being repeated on the rate. 337 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 2: So the war in Ukraine, I think will continue and 338 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: become an even bigger thing among Republican primary voters. Donald 339 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 2: Trump talking about how he wants to settle the war 340 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 2: in Ukraine in a day. 341 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 8: Let me just put it a diice away. 342 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,959 Speaker 3: If I'm president, I will have that war settled in 343 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 3: one day. Twenty four hours. 344 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 2: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was asked about this recently and 345 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: did not commit to sort of giving more money to 346 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 2: Ukraine in the future. He sort of dodged the question. 347 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 2: So I think that the Republican candidates are definitely on 348 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 2: the side of perhaps not supporting Ukraine at all or 349 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 2: definitely not in the long run. And I think that 350 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 2: once we hit the election and whoever's the Republican nominee 351 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 2: is talking about this against Biden, it will be much 352 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 2: more of a talking point because I think that the 353 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 2: White House thinks that Biden's ability to hold together NATO 354 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,199 Speaker 2: and support the war in Ukraine and stand up to 355 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 2: putin are assets and selling points and an example of 356 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 2: his long standing foreign policy credentials and leadership on the 357 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: world stage. And so I think that it will just 358 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 2: come up naturally because it will be a contrast between 359 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 2: the two parties. 360 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: Ros and other big development was that Russia pulled out 361 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: of this very important Green deal. 362 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 6: Well, that's right, So this is a deal that was 363 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 6: set up to ensure that Ukrainian grain, which is really 364 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 6: important to the global market and particularly to countries in 365 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 6: places like Africa, could continue to come out of the 366 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 6: black seaports even with the war going on. So safe 367 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 6: passage for ships, and it was negotiated between the UN, Russia, 368 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 6: Ukraine and via Turkey and that's been operating with some 369 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 6: success until recently, just in the last month or two, 370 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 6: things have really slowed down and very few ships have 371 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 6: been getting out. So essentially it was on a slow 372 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 6: crawl anyway, and now we've had Russia saying it wasn't 373 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 6: going to renew the deal, and that means that ships 374 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 6: can't be guaranteed safe passage at all. What we've been 375 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 6: reporting is that Ukraine is saying we'll find a way 376 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 6: to get this done anyway. We're going to try and 377 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,199 Speaker 6: negotiate to get ships to come. The reality is that 378 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 6: without insurance, shippers aren't going to take that risk, and 379 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 6: certainly they're not going to band together in a convoy. 380 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 6: There's been taught before about getting naval ships to be escorts. 381 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 6: That's never gone anywhere, and so what you're seeing is 382 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 6: really an impact on the global grain market. As a result, 383 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 6: you're seeing increases in prices for things like wheat, for example, 384 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 6: and the concern about the knock on effect to supply 385 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 6: in many countries, but there's not with that risk. Also 386 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 6: for Vladimir Putin in this because he can be blamed 387 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 6: for doing this by these countries, and he's been seeking 388 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 6: to keep them on side over his war in Ukraine. 389 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 6: So we're talking countries in Africa again, and North Africa 390 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 6: in particular, and if they turn their gaze to him, 391 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 6: that's not particularly good for Russia. So it's probably in 392 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,120 Speaker 6: his interest at some point to come back to this deal, 393 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 6: but not in the next couple of months at. 394 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,640 Speaker 1: Least when we come back the US in China try 395 00:19:47,720 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: to cool things off Nancy. Another country very top of 396 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 1: mind always, of course, is China, and there's been a 397 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 1: lot of back and forth between the US and China, 398 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: which really shows how important the US China relationship is 399 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: to both nations economies and really the world economy. 400 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 2: The US China relationship in the last year and a 401 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 2: half got to be very poor and very very tense. 402 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 2: What has happened is that the US is just trying 403 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 2: to make it a little bit less frosty, and so 404 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 2: they have sent Anthony Blincoln, the Secretary of State. Treasury 405 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 2: Secretary Janet Yellen was just there. John Kerry, who is 406 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: a very key climate advisor, was there. And the purpose 407 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 2: of these visits is really to try to talk about 408 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 2: some key shared issues like climate change and the economy 409 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 2: and the supply chain, and obviously national security. But it's 410 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 2: also just to sort of make sure that there's a 411 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 2: dialogue between the US and China again, because our economies 412 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 2: are so intertwined and there are such key national security 413 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: questions that affect both countries, like the war in Ukraine, 414 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 2: that I think that the Biden administration is really just 415 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: trying to make sure we're talking to them. 416 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 9: Ras. 417 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: Joe Biden came in talking really tough about China, and 418 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: she pushed back pretty hard. Now it seems like Biden 419 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: thought maybe he pushed a little too hard, and because 420 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: China's economy is in turmoil, it seems that she himself 421 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,199 Speaker 1: also has an incentive to kind of come back to 422 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:25,719 Speaker 1: the devil. 423 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's interesting seeing the way that Sijing Ping is 424 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 6: talking about both his own economy and the relationship with 425 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 6: the US because his economy is in trouble. 426 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 8: That's clear. 427 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 6: There are slow downs across the board. There's wobbles again 428 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 6: in the property sector, and of course for Sieging Ping, 429 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 6: his hold on power is absolutely anchored in the view 430 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 6: amongst ordinary Chinese people that the Communist Party will deliver 431 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 6: stability and prosperity across the board. 432 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 8: And so he really needs. 433 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 6: To get his economy moving again, and that's a really 434 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 6: big incentive for him to open up China a bit 435 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 6: more economically, to encourage investment to come in, to show 436 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 6: that he's supporting the private sector, and that involves conversations 437 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 6: with the US and perhaps encouraging Joe Biden if possible 438 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 6: to loosen some of the penalties that he's put on China, 439 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 6: but equally to sort of do not discourage American companies 440 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 6: from going in to China and doing business. And so 441 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 6: for Siegingping, the biggest imperative right now is that he 442 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 6: needs to get his economy moving and so you could 443 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 6: really see a knock on effect as a result in 444 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 6: terms of the outreach that China may do to the US. 445 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,159 Speaker 5: Right, so something earlier in this session that when I 446 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 5: heard her say, it has struck me. But she's absolutely right. 447 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 5: Biden has been more protectionist to Donald Trump. And we 448 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 5: all remember Donald Trump's trade war on China, but Biden 449 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 5: has taken it to new levels. And even this latest 450 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 5: idea of sort of limiting the outbound investment into China. 451 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 5: But again, Jenny Ellen told Bloomberg News this week that 452 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 5: this billd are going to put forward, or this idea 453 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 5: is going to be very narrowly, terribly probably not start 454 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 5: till twenty twenty four, only affect you know, super like 455 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 5: high security things like semiconductors, leaving alone the energy and 456 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 5: biotech sectors. And it does really feel like Biden talked 457 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,159 Speaker 5: so tough that he kind of looked into the abyss 458 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 5: a little bit and realized that the US economy and 459 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 5: the Chinese economy are just completely interconnected and might have 460 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 5: been being too tough. And so you definitely feel like 461 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 5: a little bit that they're kind of pulling the punch back. 462 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 5: Obviously sending all those very high level officials. Even this 463 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 5: one act that was meant to really, you know, crack 464 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 5: down on investment in China is going to be sounds 465 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 5: like a bit watered down. I think Joe Biden again 466 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 5: heading into an election where the economy and bidenomictually going 467 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 5: to be front and center. He needs Chinese the United States, 468 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,239 Speaker 5: and it went to kind of a bad place, and 469 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 5: you do have a sense both countries are starting to 470 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 5: try to reel it back. We'll see if they can. 471 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 5: The one place that seems like they haven't done as 472 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 5: good a job reeling it back. As on the military 473 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 5: sort of military to military communications. You know, we're flying 474 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 5: all over the Child China Sea and so are they, 475 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 5: and it always seems like, you know, we're one plane 476 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 5: bump away from a really, really bad situation. So I'm 477 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 5: sure that's on the front of Biden's mind and trying 478 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 5: to get some of those military to military connections re 479 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 5: established and re established. 480 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: Quickly and Nancy in the US, that's a kind of 481 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 1: delicate balance for any candidate that you need to talk 482 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 1: tough on China because that's just sort of the expectation, 483 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: and yet you also have to make sure that you're 484 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 1: not being so out front that China takes that as 485 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: an act of hostility. I guess right. 486 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: And I think that the rhetoric on Taiwan has really 487 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 2: sort of hurt the Biden g relationship quite a bit. 488 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 2: I was with Biden in Japan, I don't know, maybe 489 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 2: a year and a half ago, where he sort of 490 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: indicated that yes, the US potentially would send troops into 491 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 2: Taiwan if China invaded them. You know, that really got 492 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 2: China's backup, and so I think that these military things 493 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 2: have just really, you know, hurt the relationship as well. 494 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: And Roz, how does China view all of that tough talk? 495 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: Obviously the Chinese do the same thing back well. 496 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 6: Certainly China has an appreciation of talking to your domestic audience, 497 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 6: because that's really what Ciging Ping and other senior officials 498 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 6: are doing all the time. Everything they say is aimed 499 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 6: at that domestic audience. So they can see the need 500 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 6: for US politicians to also do that, particularly coming into 501 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 6: the election cycle. So they're probably going to be a 502 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 6: bit forgiving of some of that. The question is when 503 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 6: the attacks are seen to be very personal, and particularly 504 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 6: about Siging Ping directly, and that's the place that you 505 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 6: just don't really go. And Joe Biden's recent comment about 506 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 6: Ciging Ping, we're in the middle of talking, he suddenly 507 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 6: essentially called Siging Ping a dictator. That's the sort of 508 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 6: thing that can really cause a problem in the relationship 509 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 6: because you're coming directly for Ciging Ping, You're questioning his authority, 510 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 6: you're questioning the way he governs his country, and that's 511 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 6: really the no fly zone probably for China. The rest 512 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 6: of it they can overlook a bit, they can understand 513 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 6: the imperative, but it's when they make personal remarks about 514 00:25:58,520 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 6: their leader. 515 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: Well, we've touched on a bunch of news stories happening 516 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: right now. We could go on for another couple of 517 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: hours to try to even get our arms around everything 518 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: else that's happening. So let me just ask each of 519 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: you what is a story that you're keeping a close 520 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Craig, I'll 521 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 1: ask you first. 522 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, not to be repetitive, but I am watching the 523 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,640 Speaker 5: third party movement closely. A third person who's been talking 524 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 5: about that is Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who was, you know, 525 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 5: pretty popular in a pretty democratic state. He put out 526 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 5: like an ad the other day that Nancy Cook actually 527 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 5: flagged it to us, and it looks for all the 528 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 5: world like a campaign announcement of a guy who might 529 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:40,360 Speaker 5: run for president. 530 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 2: I've always been an underdog, and people have always counted 531 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 2: us out, but every single time we've beaten the office. 532 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 5: He looked at possibly running for President's Republican in twenty 533 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 5: twenty four, took himself out of that race. But you've 534 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 5: got three pretty prominent politicians in you know, the West 535 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 5: Virginia Senator Joe Manchin you tah Governor John Huntsman, who 536 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 5: is a kind of a heart throb of the moderates, 537 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 5: was our China ambassador for a bit, and then of 538 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 5: course Larry Hogan there in Maryland. And they are doing 539 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 5: everything you would do if you wanted to run for president. 540 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 5: Does that mean they will? I don't know. I know 541 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 5: a lot of Democrats are kind of freaking out about it, 542 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 5: and are you know, trying to side channel them to say, hey, 543 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 5: what are you doing. I don't think a lot of 544 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 5: Donald Trump voters are going to necessarily go with any 545 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 5: of the three of those gentlemen Mansion, Huntsmen or Hogan. 546 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,160 Speaker 5: But a lot of moderates or even disaffected Democrats might, 547 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,920 Speaker 5: you know, might say, hey, let's give it something else 548 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 5: to try this year. If any of them were to 549 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,679 Speaker 5: put together a ticket, and Ron I would argue a 550 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 5: vote for that ticket is a vote for Donald Trump, 551 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 5: because it's essentially a vote against Joe Biden. 552 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 1: Rise, how about you. 553 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 6: I'm actually watching the weather quite closely. We've got global 554 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 6: heat waves, We've got very very extremes of weather all 555 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 6: around the world, and looking at the knock on effect 556 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 6: of that. I mean, there are political ramifications, but also 557 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 6: there are economic ramifications. There are big impacts potentially on 558 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 6: food supply, food prices, inflation. We're seeing signs of unresting 559 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 6: countries like Nigeria and Kenya, which are related very much 560 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 6: to food prices and food supply, and you can sort 561 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 6: of see that may even feed into the Spanish election 562 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 6: this weekend, where we could get the emergence of quite 563 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 6: a far right government from that election. And so just 564 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 6: looking at the way that the weather is actually playing 565 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 6: into politics and economics around the world, that's something I've 566 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 6: very much got. 567 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 8: Dare I say a weather ion, Nancy. 568 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 2: Margine, to see what happens with abortion in the US. 569 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 2: You know, Democrats really want to use abortion rates as 570 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 2: a very galvanizing force. In twenty twenty four, Republican candidates 571 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 2: are sort of shying away from saying that they would 572 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 2: support a national abortion ban, some of them are. But 573 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 2: meanwhile states are just passing this whole crazy patchwork of 574 00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 2: restrictions and so the country's just really be divided into 575 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 2: two different countries on that issue, and I think it's 576 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 2: just going to continue. 577 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: Nancy Roz Craig always great talking to you. 578 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 8: Thanks for having us, Thank you, Thank you. 579 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: Wes, thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take. 580 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 581 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 582 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 583 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: Email us questions or comments at Big Take at Bloomberg 584 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: dot net. The supervising producer of the Big Take is 585 00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 1: Vicky Ergalina. Our senior producer and the producer of this 586 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: episode is Katherine Fink. Its additional production support from Samgabauer. 587 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: Phil de Garcia is our engineer. Our original music was 588 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: composed by Leo Sidron. I'm West Kasova. We'll be back 589 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: on Monday with another Big Take. Have a great weekend.