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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Welcome in everybody to

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Speaker 1: betting pros. It's time to turn the page already from

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Speaker 1: week three to week four.

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Speaker 2: And maybe you had some bad beats, maybe you.

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Speaker 1: Feel like that guy who had that ball punted up

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Speaker 1: his rear end after week three, but that's okay. We

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Speaker 1: are here to help you move on and hopefully y'all

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Speaker 1: had a good week of football.

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Speaker 2: It's me Joey Pa Joe Piezapia with me today is.

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Speaker 1: Of course Matt and Pat, Pat Fitz Morris, the Fitsmagic

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Speaker 1: himself and of course Matthew Friedman here to break down

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Speaker 1: what we're looking for and try to get a jump

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Speaker 1: on some of the early lines. And if you listened

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Speaker 1: last week to the show, you got some good jumps,

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Speaker 1: you got some good leaps, and you did some good things. Unfortunately, Friedman,

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Speaker 1: there were some things that maybe did not go as

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Speaker 1: a lot of us thought they would.

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Speaker 2: But heck, that's why they play the game, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, justin Herbert, you know, I'm happy to

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Speaker 3: say I was right that he actually would play the game.

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Speaker 3: That was about the only thing I got right about

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Speaker 3: that game. But you know, it's nice to say that,

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Speaker 3: like even like this, this felt like a bad week

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Speaker 3: and it was still break even weak. So I'm just

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Speaker 3: happy that that's what the bad weeks have been this season,

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Speaker 3: Like breaking even. That's a step up on where I

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Speaker 3: was last season.

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Speaker 1: And I think the weirdest part, Pat is some of

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Speaker 1: the things that seemed like the chalkiest of the chalk

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Speaker 1: have really gone the other direction. And look, we've seen

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Speaker 1: that in certain seasons in the past, but it makes

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Speaker 1: it more difficult. I feel like when you see these

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Speaker 1: things happen early in the season to really get a

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Speaker 1: good beat on teams, usually by week four we have

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Speaker 1: a pretty good handle. I still feel like we're grasping

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Speaker 1: for it right now.

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Speaker 4: I kind of feel the same way Joe, trying to

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Speaker 4: figure out who exactly is good and who's just posing

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Speaker 4: as good.

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Speaker 2: Right So yeah, yeah, and like.

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Speaker 5: Maybe the dust will start to settle on that.

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Speaker 4: But then again, like maybe while we have pretty firm

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Speaker 4: ideas of teams values or at least opinions, and maybe,

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Speaker 4: you know, the market is still a little uncertain, that

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Speaker 4: might give us some opportunities.

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Speaker 1: All right, Hopefully you can find more opportunities over at

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com. You haven't all ready, make sure you

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Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel here at Betting Pros. Click

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Speaker 1: that little bell for notifications, because you've got the live

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Speaker 1: streams going, we got the podcast on here. We got

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Speaker 1: everything for all of your betting needs. And also Sleeper's

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Speaker 1: over under contest going on there at Sleeper, which is

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Speaker 1: super fun. I have a lot of my leagues, in fact,

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Speaker 1: most of my leagues are on Sleeper, but they've got

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Speaker 1: some other games you could play too, including this over under.

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Speaker 1: So in any sport, you choose two or more players

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Speaker 1: you like, you pick from the over under, for example

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Speaker 1: rushing yards in a football game, total points in a

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Speaker 1: basketball game. Then you choose the amount of money that

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Speaker 1: you want to enter into the contest, and if you

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Speaker 1: pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two to twenty

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Speaker 1: times your money. That's pretty good where I come from.

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Speaker 1: So go check out this over under game right now

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Speaker 1: app Slash Betting Pros, and don't forget use a promo code.

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros get you all set up. So let's get

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Speaker 1: you all set up for Week four in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: We are already here.

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Speaker 1: We've got international games as well, which is always super fun.

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Speaker 2: I love the London games. I love the football in

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Speaker 2: the morning. It's great.

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Speaker 1: Not that I get to see it because I'm working,

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Speaker 1: but it's a fun idea. Miami at Cincinnati, So here

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Speaker 1: we go. The Cincinnati Bengals finally did get on the

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Speaker 1: board with a w yesterday against the Jets. The Miami

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Speaker 1: Dolphins are unstoppable. They are a juggernaut, as we know

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Speaker 1: now as they continue to slay one giant after the other.

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Speaker 1: Friedman this early line is two and a half on

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati side. They are favored at home, but only slightly.

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Speaker 1: Here the numbers forty eight. Any early love for this contest?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this has already moved to three across the markets.

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Speaker 3: The early line was two and a half. It moved

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Speaker 3: pretty quickly to three. I put it in the Betting

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Speaker 3: Pros bet tracker at two and a half. I have

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Speaker 3: this lined exactly at three, And this doesn't really even

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Speaker 3: take into account the possibility that, you know, there are

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Speaker 3: issues with two of Togovloa, whether it's you know, concussion, neck, back,

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Speaker 3: whatever it is, you know, possibility to that on short

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Speaker 3: week he doesn't play. So if you know, if you're

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Speaker 3: leaning towards Cincy, I think there's probably still a little

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Speaker 3: bit of value at three, but not nearly the value

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Speaker 3: that there was a two and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Dolphins seem like they have a little bit of

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Speaker 1: magic here if Tua is healthy enough to go here, Pat,

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Speaker 1: do you think this magic might continue for them? And

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Speaker 1: is it wise maybe jumping on the money line here

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Speaker 1: at plus one twenty or plus one ten some other spots.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to open the show, Joe by disagreeing

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Speaker 4: with Friedman, like, I don't know if there is value there.

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Speaker 4: I kind of feel like Miami's not getting enough credit

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Speaker 4: for what they've done the last couple of weeks, with

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Speaker 4: the impressive win in Baltimore and then surviving the butt

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Speaker 4: punt yesterday and still managing to knock off the Bills

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Speaker 4: at home, Like I as unimpressive as the Bengals have been,

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Speaker 4: and they even struggled a little bit to put away

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Speaker 4: the Jets yesterday, even though the Jets repeatedly shot themselves

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Speaker 4: in the foot in that game. Like, I have not

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Speaker 4: been impressed at all by the Bengals, and I've been

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Speaker 4: very impressed by the Dolphins, so I'm a little surprised

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Speaker 4: the line is what it is. I thought maybe it

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Speaker 4: would be more like Bengals by two or possibly even

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Speaker 4: one and a half. So I'm inclined to jump on

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Speaker 4: the early line here and take the Dolphins and maybe

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Speaker 4: on the money line as you mentioned, Joe.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, actually I'm looking at the money line right now.

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Speaker 2: You get plus one thirty right now on that one,

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Speaker 2: So I like it even better than I thought it

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Speaker 2: might be Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: Here's here's the one thing I will say to Fitz's point.

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Speaker 3: I don't really disagree with what he said, but if

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Speaker 3: you are on the Miami side, I think you maybe

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Speaker 3: want to wait because this line might continue to move

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Speaker 3: based on if there's a negative news on Tua and

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Speaker 3: based on the early line movement we've already seen. So

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Speaker 3: I can totally see liking Miami, but I would maybe wait.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Friedman's right, I mean we have to get a

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Speaker 4: clean bill of health onto it and hopefully we get

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Speaker 4: that today Monday and don't have to wait on that.

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Speaker 4: But assuming TUA is good to go, if there's any ambiguity,

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Speaker 4: then hold off.

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Speaker 2: What happened.

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Speaker 1: We started off debating and now everyone's agreed with each

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Speaker 1: other right after one game.

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Speaker 5: But that's so nice.

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Speaker 1: I mean, really, I thought we were gonna have a

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Speaker 1: really hot show this morning. Guns a blazing Nope, everything's

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Speaker 1: back in the whole start already. Let's go to jolly

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Speaker 1: old England for the New Orleans Saints, hosting quote unquote

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Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. Now, the Vikings are two and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one after New Orleans Laden

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Speaker 1: Egg in Carolina. The over under on this number is

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Speaker 1: forty four. If you like the New Orleans upset, it's

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Speaker 1: plus one eighteen, just outright for them. So Pat, all

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Speaker 1: these games are always tricky because of the travel, because

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Speaker 1: of what's.

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Speaker 2: Going on here.

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Speaker 1: Also New Orleans certainly a team that's had their share

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Speaker 1: of injuries as well.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts early on on this contest.

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Speaker 4: It's probably gonna be a stay away from me, Joe

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Speaker 4: in picking this one. Early eyed Vikings minus two and

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Speaker 4: a half and it looks like it's right on there,

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Speaker 4: and I was like within a half a point.

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Speaker 5: Of the totals.

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Speaker 4: So and two kind of hard to peg teams right now.

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Speaker 4: The Vikings have sort of been all over the place

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Speaker 4: in the opening weeks. The Saints, like I have a

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Speaker 4: lot of respect for their defense. Their offense can be

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Speaker 4: pretty unsightly, and you know, you get the good, relatively

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Speaker 4: low Jamis Winston turnover game, and you know they're probably

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Speaker 4: going to surprise you and put together good performance.

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Speaker 5: But if you get the.

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Speaker 4: Yolo Jamis, the Saints can lose by twenty.

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Speaker 5: And we've seen a lot of the Yolo Jamis.

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Speaker 4: I think he's got five interceptions in the season and

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Speaker 4: they've all been in the fourth quarter. So yeah, this

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Speaker 4: one is probably it feels like the line is just

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Speaker 4: right and I'm probably not going to touch it.

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Speaker 5: But I will.

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Speaker 4: I will look for the always important telltales Joe of

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Speaker 4: who travels to London when yah?

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Speaker 2: I mean that is it?

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Speaker 1: All these variables Friedman Is they're worth anything to something

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Speaker 1: early and jumping on one side of this game, because

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Speaker 1: whenever you have so many outcomes, to me, this is

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Speaker 1: always a game that I would run away from. But

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Speaker 1: is there something you see in this one that might

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Speaker 1: be more interesting?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this about where the market is. I

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Speaker 3: see maybe like a quarter of a point of value

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Speaker 3: on New Orleans. But the thing is they are so injured.

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Speaker 3: You know, quarterback Jameis Winston has literally a broken back.

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Speaker 3: Wide receiver Michael Thomas left with a foot injury, Jarvis

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Speaker 3: Landry has an ankle injury. You know, backup wide receiver

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Speaker 3: trake Wan Smith left with the concussion. Left guard Andrews

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Speaker 3: Pete left with the concussion. Safety Marcus May didn't play.

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Speaker 3: Tight end Taysom Hill didn't play.

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Speaker 5: Like.

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Speaker 3: They are significantly injured, and they have a big travel

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Speaker 3: going to London. And you know, so as Pat said,

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Speaker 3: let's pay attention to who travels. I doubt all of

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Speaker 3: those guys make the trip. So even though I show

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Speaker 3: slight value on New Orleans right now, like I'm not

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Speaker 3: at all buying that. So I'm staying away from this

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Speaker 3: game entirely.

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Speaker 2: Feels right to me. Stay away feels definitely right.

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Speaker 1: Atlanta, the Atlanta Falcons at home against the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland made a statement on Thursday night, or so I've

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Speaker 1: been told they are two and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: on the road in Atlanta. Forty six and a half

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Speaker 1: is the number here now, Atlanta showing some signs of

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Speaker 1: life in that game, also some signs of being Atlanta

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Speaker 1: in that game as well. Freedman, when you look at

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Speaker 1: this one, do you think that there's any chance here

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Speaker 1: where Atlanta can upset Cleveland or do you think that

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Speaker 1: Cleveland just kind of got back on track Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: The extra time to repair is going to help them

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Speaker 1: in this contest.

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Speaker 3: No, I'm interested in Atlanta, and so I was kind

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Speaker 3: of eyeballing last night the plus three that's in the market,

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Speaker 3: and you can still find that at a few books

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Speaker 3: that MGM has it, FanDuel has it, and I might

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Speaker 3: end up betting that one pretty quickly. I'm also interested

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Speaker 3: in over Forty six and a half, I believe is

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Speaker 3: the number in the market, because I think both of

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Speaker 3: these teams can put up points. Like I've been impressed

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Speaker 3: by Atlanta's offense, and Atlanta's defense isn't a good unit,

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Speaker 3: And I'll say like the Browns defense also isn't the

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Speaker 3: unit that I thought it would be, and their offense

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Speaker 3: has been more efficient than I would have anticipated with

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Speaker 3: Jacoby bris said, So if I'm looking anywhere in this

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Speaker 3: it might be more the over. But I'm still pretty

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Speaker 3: impressed with Atlanta, and like with this number at three,

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Speaker 3: I think it should be closer to like one and

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Speaker 3: a half one point seventy five. So I see some

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Speaker 3: slight value on Atlanta given that there is still a

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Speaker 3: three in the market.

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Speaker 2: Pat, do you see the value in Atlanta or in

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Speaker 2: the over under in this contest?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I totally agree with Friedman on this one. And I

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Speaker 4: like to look at these before I look at any

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Speaker 4: of the power rankings like Massy Peabody Football Outsiders any

238
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Speaker 4: of that stuff. I always like to just do my

239
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Speaker 4: gut take on what I think the line should be.

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Speaker 4: And I had this one as about to pick them

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Speaker 4: and to see the Browns as a three point road favorite,

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Speaker 4: Like Atlanta has been pretty plucky so far, and by

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Speaker 4: no means am I putting them into the category of

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Speaker 4: good team yet, but they've been scrappy, and I just like,

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Speaker 4: maybe is the market is buying into the competence Jacoby Brisset.

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Speaker 4: That's notion that we were given last Thursday, that he's

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Speaker 4: like a decent, respectable starting quarterback because I'm not really

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Speaker 4: buying that notion Joe, Like, you know.

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Speaker 2: It seems like a heck of a nice guy.

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Speaker 1: Though he does seem like a nice guy, so that's

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Speaker 1: what we're getting, Like people really like him.

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Speaker 2: It seems like this teammates really like him.

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Speaker 1: It seems like he's a very you know, he's a

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Speaker 1: good leader, even though he might have some deficits there.

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Speaker 2: But are we giving the Falcons too much credit based

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Speaker 2: on maybe some of their opponents we've seen them go

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Speaker 2: against this.

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Speaker 1: Year too, Yeah, going against Seattle and that still was

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Speaker 1: not a That game wasn't exactly a romp for.

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Speaker 5: Them, right right?

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Speaker 4: They have, you know, played two weakish opponents, and yeah,

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Speaker 4: I guess we can't even really lump the Saints in

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Speaker 4: as a strong opponent yet.

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Speaker 5: So maybe that's the case, But I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I just like I don't see Cleveland as being the

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Speaker 4: sort of team that should be a three point road

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Speaker 4: favorite against pretty much anyone, well, maybe a couple of teams.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I just bet this while Pat was talking.

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Speaker 2: And what did you bet, mister Friedman?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Atlanta plus three.

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Speaker 5: You said, Pats on it. So now I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 5: the Browns.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Buffalo at Baltimore. Buffalo on

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Speaker 1: the road is still three point favorites in this one. Now,

275
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Speaker 1: certainly they've had a lot of injuries on defense. Mike

276
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,160
Speaker 1: a hideout for the year. Poyer was out last week,

277
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Speaker 1: Oliver out last week. Clear is some issues there, although

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Speaker 1: you know at times the defense did show up regardless

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Speaker 1: of all those missing pieces. Now they're to contend with

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, who has been an absolute handful so far

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Speaker 1: this year. I mean, the guy's just throwing for tons

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Speaker 1: of rs. He's rushing all over the place. The number

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Speaker 1: for this one is fifty three and a half. If

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Speaker 1: you like Baltimore for the upset, it's plus one forty

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Speaker 1: on the money line. Pat, you know, it feels like

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Speaker 1: last week was obviously, or should I say even just

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Speaker 1: yesterday was a huge disappointment for those Buffalo Bills. But

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Speaker 1: I don't want to knock the Bills too much. However,

289
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Speaker 1: this matchup scares me a little bit for them at

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Speaker 1: this current state of their defense, because Lamar is that

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Speaker 1: special talent and he could be a handful in this game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of an fortunate for the Bills that

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Speaker 4: they have to go up against you know, some some

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Speaker 4: pretty good passing attacks right after losing Micah Hyde, and

295
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Speaker 4: who knows if they're going to have Jordan Poyer for this.

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Speaker 4: You know, not having those terrific safeties is a big

297
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Speaker 4: problem for them. But it's interesting to see this game

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Speaker 4: peg as a shootout.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: We thought these were going to be two pretty good

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Speaker 4: defenses going into the season. I'd you know, back in

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Speaker 4: the first week of September, if you told me the

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Speaker 4: total on this one was going to be fifty three

304
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Speaker 4: and a half, I would have grabbed the under in

305
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:35,000
Speaker 4: a heartbeat. But now it seems about right to me.

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Speaker 4: And I'm not sure I really see any value on

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Speaker 4: either side here.

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Speaker 2: We've seen some of these games so far.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even yesterday it felt like it was going

310
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Speaker 1: to be more of a shootout, and that certainly did

311
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Speaker 1: not come to fruition that one. Is this another game

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Speaker 1: that potentially could underwhelm in terms of total?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm thinking pretty hard about the under here. I

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00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 3: believe this number opened at fifty five and it has

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Speaker 3: been bet down pretty quickly to fifty three and a half.

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Speaker 3: And you know, you can I can kind of see

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Speaker 3: the reason why Baltimore at its core wants to be

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Speaker 3: a running team, and against a really wounded Buffalo defense,

319
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Speaker 3: I think they could be able to run the ball,

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Speaker 3: especially since I mean Buffalo they played so many plays

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Speaker 3: on I mean like in the heat in Miami. It's

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Speaker 3: their second week in a row on the road, three

323
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Speaker 3: or four on the road. I think that this is

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Speaker 3: a it's a spot where if you want Baltimore, I

325
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 3: can definitely see it. But I think I might be

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Speaker 3: more inclined to take the under here.

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Speaker 2: I haven't.

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Speaker 3: I haven't bet it, but I'm I'm looking at it.

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Speaker 3: That's the way I'm laming. If I'm going to take

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Speaker 3: something on this game.

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Speaker 1: Nothing would please me more if we actually got an

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Speaker 1: over on a game that looked like it was going

333
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Speaker 1: to be a fun shootout.

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Speaker 2: Because these games that are not playing.

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Speaker 1: Up to their responsibilities, that's they're not playing up to

336
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Speaker 1: their responsibilities. They're really killing me in DFS. I'm really upset.

337
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Speaker 1: I'm not happy about it. I want this one to

338
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Speaker 1: come to fruition, But it seems like the trend early

339
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Speaker 1: on this year they are not living up to expectations.

340
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Speaker 1: Some of these games and some of the other ones

341
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Speaker 1: where you think that they're going to be lackluster. Those

342
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Speaker 1: are the ones that end up getting some better totals.

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Speaker 2: He's sorry.

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Speaker 3: Here's one more thing to mention about this game that

345
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 3: I think leans towards Baltimore and towards the under here.

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Speaker 3: You know, quarterback Josh Allen, he's dealing with the hand injury.

347
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,400
Speaker 3: It's probably not anything severe enough to, you know, keep

348
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 3: him out of the game, but it is the kind

349
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Speaker 3: of thing that I think could limit his ability to throw.

350
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Speaker 3: So that is something to keep in mind. And then yeah,

351
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 3: all of the injuries that that Buffalo is dealing with.

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Speaker 3: Center Mitch Morse is also out.

353
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Speaker 2: You mentioned the wounded Buffalo. Is this which is not

354
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Speaker 2: just the dances with Wolve's name.

355
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Speaker 1: I want to know, are you possibly watching this market

356
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: very carefully, in the Super Bowl and playoff market all

357
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 1: those other things for Buffalo too, because if they lose

358
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,600
Speaker 1: a couple of games here, you might get some better

359
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,320
Speaker 1: odds on them in the next few weeks. Is that

360
00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: a time to maybe jump in into the Buffalo Pileok?

361
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 1: They were a heavy favorite coming into the year, and

362
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,920
Speaker 1: if they slip back to the pack, is a great time,

363
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 1: a very opportunistic time to go ahead and start putting

364
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,160
Speaker 1: some money on them in long term best.

365
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an interesting question because I don't think their

366
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 3: long term upside is diminished at all. I mean, they

367
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 3: are without safety Micah Hyde, but they will get back

368
00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 3: cornerback to Davius White seemingly, you know, within a couple

369
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 3: of weeks. So I think they will still be a

370
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 3: very good team. It looks like cornerback Dane Jackson, he's

371
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 3: not dealing with a long term injury with the head

372
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 3: and neck, So yeah, I think that they will end

373
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 3: up long term being healthy. It's just in the short

374
00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 3: term they are decimated.

375
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that long term outlook for the Bill's

376
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 1: agree kind of stays the same. But you and I

377
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 1: both know sometimes the market likes to react or overreact,

378
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 1: or people start to sour on a team after a

379
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 1: couple of straight losses. And remember it's a long season.

380
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 1: The teams that look really good in the first six

381
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 1: weeks are not always the team that looks so good

382
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 1: in the last six weeks of the season. So don't

383
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 1: lose hope, Buffalo Bills fans, circle the wagons.

384
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 2: That's what you do. Circle the wagons.

385
00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 1: The Dallas Cowboys, we'll see tonight on Monday Night Football,

386
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 1: and they will be taking on the Giants, But next

387
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 1: week they're gonna be taking on the Washington Commanders. The

388
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys are three point favorites at home right now

389
00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 1: in this one. I know, without seeing what they do

390
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 1: this week in another week of Cooper Rush, it's kind

391
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 1: of tough to gauge this game.

392
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 2: Forty two and a half is the over under. Pat

393
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: will start with you on this one.

394
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 1: You know, Washington kind of you know, had its Washington

395
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 1: moment yesterday and Carson Wentz, as we had been talking

396
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 1: about on numerous podcasts last week on the Fantasy pro side, Look,

397
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 1: the totals have been there, the numbers have been there,

398
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,120
Speaker 1: but some of the play hasn't been. We saw that

399
00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 1: can he get back on track here against the Cowboys defense?

400
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,360
Speaker 4: I don't think so. We saw Carson Wentz turn into

401
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 4: a pumpkin in Week three.

402
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 1: Just in time for fallat season.

403
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 4: It's perfect, and now he faces a really good defense

404
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 4: with Dallas like we've seen. Yeah, last year, Dallas forced

405
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 4: a lot of turnovers, but we wondered if as far

406
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 4: as just oh, I don't know the infrastructure, whether it

407
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 4: was actually a very good defense, and I think now

408
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 4: it is a really a defense and Micah Parsons is one

409
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 4: of the most impactful players in the NFL, So like,

410
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 4: just on that defense alone, like if Cooper Rush can

411
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:14,199
Speaker 4: just game manage this, I like Dallas to win this

412
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 4: game handily, and I think they should be more like

413
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:17,360
Speaker 4: a four point favorite.

414
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 5: So I like Dallas here.

415
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 2: How about you, Freeman, Do you also like Dallas in

416
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 2: this game? At home?

417
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 5: Yeah? I mean I have.

418
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 3: I'm showing slight value on Washington, but there's no way

419
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,400
Speaker 3: that I'm betting it, in part because we haven't seen

420
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 3: Dallas play. And I also feel that I probably haven't

421
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:39,439
Speaker 3: adjusted Washington down aggressively enough in my power ratings, Like

422
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: I don't want to overreact, but like I just know,

423
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 3: like there's a chance I'm not low enough on Washington.

424
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 2: You know. It's funny, Michael Parsons.

425
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: I think I locked in at ten to one over

426
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,640
Speaker 1: on the FanDuel sportsbook earlier this year for defensive player

427
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 1: in the year. He is now down to three and

428
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 1: a half to one. Is this the last time to

429
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 1: get in on the Michael Parsons market?

430
00:18:58,640 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 5: That's too low?

431
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 4: I think for the uh, you know, Defensive Player of

432
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 4: the Year award, Joe.

433
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,439
Speaker 1: I mean, I look at look at some of the

434
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 1: guys want you know, I loved that on too, But

435
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the rest of the guys and

436
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 1: some of the injuries they've had, at some of the

437
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 1: agents of these players, and T J.

438
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 2: Watt missing a bunch of weeks.

439
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, this might be a smaller market

440
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 1: than we realize on this one.

441
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,159
Speaker 4: I know, I just I always need a generous price

442
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 4: on those props because anything that depends on the stupidity

443
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 4: of voters like that, it always makes me nervous.

444
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 5: Man.

445
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 2: See, I count on the stupidity of voters.

446
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 1: That's why I love the awards market, because I like

447
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 1: to play it like the stocks, because you know how

448
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 1: things are ebbig and flowing, and you can get in

449
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: and out of stuff, especially at some sportsbooks where you

450
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,959
Speaker 1: can cash out and then reinvest in some other players,

451
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 1: which is always a fascinating thing to be able to do. Uh,

452
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: let's get to the next one here. Oh yeah, poor

453
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,680
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell. Poor you know, I feel for that guy.

454
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 1: I just want Dan Campbell to be happy once in

455
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 1: a while. They are around one and two, they are

456
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 1: six point favorites, though at home this coming week in

457
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: Week four against the Seattle Seahawks.

458
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 2: The number for this game is fifty Matthew Friedman.

459
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 1: Detroit had this game right kind of in their palm

460
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: and let it get away last week. Can they rebound

461
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 1: from that and take it to Seattle? Or is this

462
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 1: number of six a little too large?

463
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 3: I have at five and a half. I actually bet

464
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 3: it in the look ahead market at five and a half.

465
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 3: I like the over for this game. I bet it

466
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 3: early last night when lines came out at forty eight

467
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: and a half. But you know, I think this is

468
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 3: a shootout game right here, because both defenses are really bad.

469
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 3: Seattle is actually looking better on offense than we would

470
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 3: have anticipated their letting Geo Smith throw a little bit more.

471
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 3: He's got two really good wide receivers, and Detroit secondary

472
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 3: is not good. And on offense, we've seen what they

473
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: can do, like they can score with the best of them.

474
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 2: All Right, So, Pat, is this the one that lives

475
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 2: up to the hype?

476
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 5: Yeah? I mean I have to do with.

477
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 2: A long balls buddy, Yeah.

478
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 4: Seattle Detroit living up to the hype, Joe, I mean,

479
00:20:58,320 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: think about what you're saying for a second.

480
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 5: He sort of threw me for a minute.

481
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: This way, not the hype of expectations of being a

482
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 1: good football game, but a total that would be pleasant

483
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 1: to all of us, especially from the fantasy and wagering community.

484
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 1: We're looking for a big game out of these two

485
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 1: because the defenses aren't that great and you actually get

486
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 1: what you are anticipating for a change.

487
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, Friedman is right. I'm way too low on my

488
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 4: projected total. You know, I'm like more than a point underneath.

489
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 5: And he's right.

490
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 4: Neither of these teams can play defense, and you know

491
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 4: they both have very surprisingly competent offenses. Maybe not such

492
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 4: a surprise for the Lions, but I think it is

493
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: a surprise for Seattle that they have looked as good

494
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 4: as they have so far. And by the way, Joe

495
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 4: Dan Campbell no one to blame but himself. Of the

496
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 4: three available options, punt and pin them deep, go for

497
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 4: it and try a fifty four yard field.

498
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 5: One was clearly the most stupid option and three.

499
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: Card month, he's not his game, let's no.

500
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, I do sort of like Detroit in this

501
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: spot a little bit, although I'm Dan Campbell gives me

502
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 4: pause there, I'm not sure what kind of a game

503
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 4: manager he is, but yeah, it's it should be a

504
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 4: much more entertaining game I think than we were expecting,

505
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 4: you know, heading into the season. Seattle Detroit as appointment television.

506
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 4: Not on my Bengo card for twenty twelve to two.

507
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 2: No, that is fair. It'll be funny into a betting card.

508
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: That's what matters. Bingo cards aside. Los Angeles Chargers are

509
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 2: now one in two.

510
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 1: They are still regardless six and a half point favorites

511
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 1: as they travel to Houston. Houston still winless on the season,

512
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: but they've got a tie, so they're not the only

513
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: team to have three losses. We'll save them for later

514
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: in the show. Forty five and a half is the

515
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 1: number for this one. Pat, This feels I could get

516
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 1: right game for the Chargers.

517
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: Do you agree?

518
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 5: I want to think so, Joe. I mean, like, what

519
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 5: a difference.

520
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,719
Speaker 1: Think you're overthinking if you don't think that. I know

521
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: that is a very complicated question I just asked.

522
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 4: But not really because now, like we don't know what

523
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,120
Speaker 4: the status of Justin Herbert is. If he's gonna be okay,

524
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 4: I guess he's gonna play, but is he going to

525
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:07,959
Speaker 4: be one hundred percent.

526
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 5: J C.

527
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: Jackson is out. I think Joey Posa got hurt in

528
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 4: this game. You know, I thought, even though they lost

529
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: in Week two, I thought the Chargers looked like a

530
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 4: war machine against the Chiefs and if not for the

531
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 4: you know, ninety nine yard interception return for a touchdown,

532
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 4: they should have won that game in enemy territory against

533
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 4: the team that is believed to be the team that you.

534
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 5: Have to go through to get to the super Bowl.

535
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 4: And I thought the Chargers looked really impressive on both

536
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 4: sides of the ball, and then they come out and

537
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 4: get their doors blown off by the Jaguars. But obviously

538
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 4: they've got a lot of injury issues to deal with.

539
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 4: And you know, the Texans have at least been plucky.

540
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: I know they're a doormat, but you know, they've they've

541
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 4: been in games for the most part. So like, I

542
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 4: don't see necessarily any early value on the Chargers because

543
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 4: they're just really hard to peg right now.

544
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: Friedan is an early value in this game at all. End,

545
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: Do you think we're overthinking the state of the Chargers

546
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 1: ursus the Texans, Because if I asked you this question

547
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, you'd think this is probably what nine.

548
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: This is like a smash game. But all of a sudden,

549
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 1: we're at six here.

550
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's look in the preseason market, this was around eight,

551
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: eight and a half and seven on the look ahead.

552
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 3: Now six and a half. I have this at seven.

553
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 3: But you know, like I'm I would say, I'm not

554
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 3: baking in the worst case scenario for this team. And

555
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 3: I don't think the worst case scenario is, you know,

556
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 3: justin Herbert out. I think he looked good enough last

557
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: week to where you think he probably plays this week.

558
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 3: But let's tackle Vershaun Slater. He left with a biceps injury.

559
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: There's no guarantee he plays. Center Corey Linsley was out,

560
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: no guarantee he comes back. Those are the two most

561
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 3: important offensive linemen, all right, And so a quarterback dealing

562
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: with a rib injury with all of a sudden shaky

563
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 3: offensive line in front of him, that's not good. And

564
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: then of course missing your two most important defenders, edge

565
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 3: rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback Jacy Jackson, who was out

566
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 3: last week, no guarantee he returns, Like you know, maybe

567
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: half of those guys missed this week. And then all

568
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: of a sudden, we're talking to them another point and

569
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 3: a half.

570
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Let's go to the next game here, the

571
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans got back on tracks, so to the Innapolis Colts.

572
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 1: The Colts are gonna host the Titans here in week

573
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,959
Speaker 1: four minus three on the Colts side of These are

574
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 1: the kind of games, as in Division Games two, that

575
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 1: I just run away from. I have very little faith

576
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 1: in either of these rosters, and the line's not really

577
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: telling you anything. They're giving you the basic yep, the

578
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: home team's favorite by three.

579
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 2: Good luck.

580
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: Forty three and a half is the number here. If

581
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: you like anything, potentially maybe the upset of the Titans

582
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: plus one fifty on the money line, You're getting a

583
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: nice number there, Freeman, Is there any early appeal on

584
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: this in Division game?

585
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 5: I think so.

586
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 3: You know, there are still a few three and a

587
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: half's in the market. I bet this on the look

588
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 3: aheadline at three and a half Tennessee. I think if

589
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 3: you can still find that out there, it's a bet MGM.

590
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 3: Right now, it's three in the rest of the market

591
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 3: or most of the books. I have this lined at

592
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 3: three and a half, So I think being able to

593
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: get above the key number of three right there provides

594
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 3: not insignificant value. It's not a world of value, but

595
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 3: I think that's enough to bet it.

596
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: How about you, Pat, do you think there's enough year

597
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 2: to get invested in early.

598
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 4: Let's think back to the beginning of the season and

599
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 4: where we assessed these teams as being. I think everyone

600
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 4: thought the Colts were going to be an overwhelming favorite

601
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 4: to win the division, and that the Titans, despite being

602
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 4: the number one seed in the AFC last year, we're

603
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 4: kind of a house of cards and had lesser personnel

604
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: than they had a year ago.

605
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 5: And I know that the.

606
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 4: Colts shaky start probably has thrown some people off of

607
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 4: their trail, and certainly that tie against the Texans was bad. Now,

608
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 4: maybe that Week two lost to the Jaguars not looking

609
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 4: quite as bad as some pot full thought at the time,

610
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 4: and then they had a get straight game against the

611
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 4: Chiefs in Week three, So I'm not quite back to

612
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 4: feeling the Colts are as strong as they were before

613
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 4: the season. But you know, like before the year, I

614
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 4: would have thought this would have been Colts minus six

615
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 4: or so, and you know that line has been cut

616
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 4: in half.

617
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 5: Like I like the Colts of this one, all right.

618
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: Let's see if you like anything in this next one.

619
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 3: Let me push back, Let me push back just a

620
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: little bit. I don't I don't necessarily disagree with the

621
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 3: thesis that Pat has there. But in the preseason market,

622
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 3: this game was three.

623
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 2: You know it?

624
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, so it is basically right where the market

625
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 3: thought it would be months ago. Uh, And I feel

626
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 3: like it kind of makes sense given the disappointment that

627
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 3: we've had in both of these teams, Like they have

628
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: both probably dropped equally in our estimation. Maybe maybe not

629
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 3: so much for you, Pat, but they have for me.

630
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 5: There fair enough.

631
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to this next one. I

632
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: know you're all super excited about this game. It's the

633
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: Bears at the Giants.

634
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: The Giants.

635
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: We'll see what they do tonight. They are two and

636
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: zero as of this podcast recording. They are three point

637
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: favorites at home. Thirty nine and a half is the number.

638
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: Do we jump potentially here, Friedman on the early thirty

639
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: nine and a half and go under on this one?

640
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 3: You know, I'm not looking so much at the total here,

641
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 3: but I mean, I have to hate myself for doing this,

642
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: but I actually like the Bears in this spot. I mean,

643
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones is a He's a bad quarterback in general.

644
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 3: He's especially bad in certain situations. Bad at home eight

645
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 3: and twelve against the spread. Bad is a favorite two

646
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: and five against the spread. Bad is a home favorite

647
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 3: one and three against the spread. Like you bet on

648
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 3: him on the road, you bet on him as an underdog,

649
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 3: and you fade him in the opposite situations. And the

650
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: Bears like they're not good, but I like, I don't

651
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 3: think that they are. They're not a bottom three team

652
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: in the league. Like they're basically in the same tier

653
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: as the in maybe a little bit better. I have

654
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 3: this as a one and a half point game, so

655
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: I will I will take the three, given that it's

656
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 3: a key number.

657
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: All right, how about you pat your thoughts on this one.

658
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 4: I would echo Friedman's assessment of the Bears. I think

659
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 4: they're an undermanned but pretty well coached team. It seems

660
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 4: like they are maximizing their low talent level. And I

661
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 4: do not like the instinct is to bet the under

662
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 4: here with these two teams. I do not like betting

663
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: unders in games with Daniel Jones because, like the turnovers

664
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 4: can give the other team a short field, you occasionally

665
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 4: get the pick six with him, Like, I don't want

666
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 4: to bet an under in a Daniel Jones game, even

667
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 4: though I think Daniel Jones is bad. So as tempted

668
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 4: as I am to bet the under on a game

669
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 4: with the Bears, who are averaging fifteen pass attempts a

670
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 4: game through three weeks in the NFL season, I'm just

671
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 4: going to stay away from this game completely.

672
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 1: That makes sense, I understand that I still like the

673
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: under here, I'm not ready to give too much credit there. Now,

674
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: a game that three weeks ago might have been one

675
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: we just kind of completely shrugged off all of a

676
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,719
Speaker 1: sudden now becomes maybe the most fascinating.

677
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: Game on the Week four Slate, at least to me.

678
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: The undefeated Eagles three to zero at home, seven point

679
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who came up another win.

680
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: So after they shut out the Colts at home, they

681
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: went out on the road and beat the Chargers, and

682
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: now they're going to go travel to Philadelphia. Now, look,

683
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is going to be the best team they played

684
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: so far. But certainly the Jaguars have shown you a

685
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: little bit more, I think than a lot of people expected,

686
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: especially in the early going forty seven is the number here,

687
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 1: Pat for this one. I'm not saying the Jaguars are

688
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: going to upset, but can they hang? That's the question here, Pat.

689
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: And will this number change between now and Sunday.

690
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 4: I'll be interested to see if it changes, Joe, because

691
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 4: I didn't think this was going to be a full

692
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 4: touchdown for the Eagles.

693
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 5: I thought it was going to be like six six

694
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 5: and a half.

695
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 4: So I do see a little early value on the

696
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 4: Jags and maybe they're not getting quite enough credits as

697
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 4: they should be for what they've done so far. I mean,

698
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 4: this is a totally new team and maybe they had

699
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 4: this level of talent all along, and urban Meyer just

700
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 4: you know, drove the ship in the Iceberg last year.

701
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 4: But like, they're impressive. Man, Trevor Lawrence looks like the

702
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 4: guy we thought he was going to be coming out

703
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 4: of Clemson, the guy who had Clemson in the National

704
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 4: Championship Hans pretty much every year he was there. So yeah,

705
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 4: I'm very interested in the Jags at this price.

706
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 2: I think urban Meyer was the Iceberg.

707
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, your thoughts on this game here, because this

708
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: looks like one that might be appointment television.

709
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's going to be an awesome game.

710
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: I have it right around where it is now. I

711
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 3: believe I have it at seven point twenty five. So

712
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: you know, in theory, I see some slight value on Philadelphia.

713
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: I will say I've adjusted up over the past couple

714
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 3: of weeks the Jags more than any other team in

715
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 3: the league.

716
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: I remember last week you talked about moving them up

717
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 2: this on this very show.

718
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I continue to move them up, but I've

719
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 3: also moved up Philadelphia, you know, because Philadelphia has also

720
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 3: looked amazing. You know, think about where they are right now,

721
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 3: Like it might be fair to say that like after

722
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: I think Green Bay is still ahead of them, Tampa

723
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 3: Bay is still ahead of them, and maybe the Rams.

724
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: Maybe the Rams are still ahead of them in the NFC,

725
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: But I mean the Eagles are right there with those

726
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: other teams. And so I've moved up the Jags, but

727
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 3: I've also moved up the Eagles. So this was seven

728
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 3: in the look ahead market last week. I feel, you know,

729
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 3: given what we saw out of both teams in Week three,

730
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: it makes sense for this line still to be seven.

731
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: Now, let's take a quick break in the action to

732
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: tell you about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks. Sign

733
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,120
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Speaker 1: that promo code betting Pros. That's one word, dding pros

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00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: when you sign up today.

739
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 6: Terms and conditions apply Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada,

740
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 6: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington,

741
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 6: d C West Virginia, Wyoming, and Ontario only. Must be

742
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 6: twenty one years or older to wager nineteen or older.

743
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 6: In Ontario New customer offer. All promotions are subject to qualification.

744
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 6: In alge Billy requirements, rewards issued as non with withdrawable

745
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 6: free bets on site credit free bets expire seven days

746
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 6: from insurance excludes Michigan dississoiated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling

747
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 6: problem called one eight hundred next step in Arizona one

748
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 6: one hundred five to two two four seven zero zero.

749
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 6: In Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia one

750
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 6: eight hundred two seven zero seven one seven for confidential

751
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 6: help in Michigan, one hundred gambler Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey

752
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 6: or West Virginia. One eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

753
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 6: One hundred nine eight one zero zero two three. In

754
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 6: Puerto Rico, called eight seven seven eight hop E n

755
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 6: Y or text hop E n Y. In New York,

756
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 6: call or text the Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred

757
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 6: eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee, or

758
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 6: call one eight eight eight seven seven seven nine six

759
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 6: nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you have questions

760
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 6: or concerns rotor gambling or someone close to you, please

761
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 6: contact Connects Ontario at eight six six five to three

762
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,120
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763
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 6: an advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio,

764
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 6: and Utah and other states where prohibitive and promotional offers

765
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 6: not available. In about In New York and now back

766
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 6: to the.

767
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: Action from appointment television to light your DVR on fire,

768
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: the New York Jets will be going to travel to

769
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to play the Steelers this week. The Steelers are

770
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites. Forty one and a

771
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: half is the number if you like the Jets for

772
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: the upset, it's plus one fifty five on the money line.

773
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: Freeman, do you see anything in this game that you like? No?

774
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,359
Speaker 3: I have it at three point seven five this stay away,

775
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 3: run run.

776
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: Away, Pat Fitts, Morris, are you running from this game

777
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 2: as well?

778
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:35,720
Speaker 5: Yeah?

779
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't have to talk about this one, Joe.

780
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 4: I'm just an I sore.

781
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: We got to mention every game. We don't have to

782
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 1: talk about everyone Arizona.

783
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 4: Can I ask actually before we leave this one more,

784
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 4: Joe Friedman, do you think the return of Zach Wilson

785
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 4: would do anything to this line?

786
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: I think it's probably already baked in, But to be honest,

787
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 3: I think it makes it worse for the Jets.

788
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 2: That's all that's gonna say.

789
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 5: Words I can.

790
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 2: Oh good times.

791
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Arizona Carolina another game that

792
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: might be an enigma. They're basically telling you it to

793
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: pick them.

794
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 4: Here.

795
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: We've got Carolina one point favorites at home. So although

796
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: they won a game of Vegas is not impressed. But

797
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: it's funny because the least impressive thing to me is

798
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinal defense. Like that's the one thing to

799
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 1: me where I just keep looking at it and going yeah,

800
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: Like it's really hard for me to like the Cardinals

801
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: on the road. Uh, but Vegas thinks they have a shot.

802
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: I understand why. It's not like Carolina's built world beater.

803
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 1: Both these teams have one win so far, they're both

804
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: one and two. Forty four and a half is the number?

805
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,919
Speaker 1: Pat What do you see here in this thing? If

806
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: anything early on? And where do you think this one

807
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: goes in terms of as the betting continues to come

808
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 1: in throughout the week.

809
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: I'll be fascinated to see if the Cardinals defense is

810
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 4: actually capable of making Baker Mayfield look good. Like I

811
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 4: feel the Panthers should be a slightly bigger favorite, that

812
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 4: this should be maybe one and a half or whatever,

813
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 4: Like the Cardinals have been just so wretched so far,

814
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 4: and yet like Kyler Murray is the far better quarterback

815
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 4: in this matchup, and maybe that's going to keep the

816
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 4: line down and maybe even bring it closer to a

817
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 4: pick them. But like I tend to just like that

818
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 4: Cardinal defense is just the Cardinals have so many issues

819
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 4: they do. Yeah, it's it would be hard for me

820
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 4: to get on board with the Cardinals here, even though

821
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 4: I think they have a big quarterback advantage.

822
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: Murray's not getting a lot of help to a ton

823
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: of drop passes in that game, Friedman, I mean, can it?

824
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: Can this be the game where Murray kind of overcomes

825
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: here a little bit and maybe just takes it all

826
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: into his hands literally and figuratively. And actually this is

827
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: a game where they go on the road win.

828
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I bet Carolina at plus three on the

829
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 3: look ahead. But now that we're here in Week four,

830
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 3: I'm looking at this line and I'm thinking, like, you

831
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 3: know what, I'm pretty tempted to bet Arizona plus one

832
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 3: and a half and try to middle this thing because

833
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 3: these are these are zigzag coaches, right Like you want

834
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,399
Speaker 3: to bet on Cliff Kingsbury as a road dog. He's

835
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 3: fourteen three and two against this as a real dog.

836
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 3: And you want to bet against Matt Ruhle as a

837
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 3: home favorite. He's one and seven against the spread as

838
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: a home favorite. You know, so you want to bet

839
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 3: on these guys when they're underdogs bet against them when

840
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: their favorites.

841
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 2: I don't know.

842
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: I have this at one point seventy five in favor

843
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: of Arizona, and I will say, there's a very decent

844
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 3: chance that I haven't moved Arizona down aggressively enough in

845
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 3: my in my power ratings. Like so, I know that

846
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: might be a weakness of what I'm seeing in the

847
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 3: number here, but man, like, I just see this number

848
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 3: and I want to bet on Arizona, and I will say, like,

849
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: this was one and a half across the industry last night.

850
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 3: The only one and a half I see in the

851
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 3: market now is at bet MGM, so it it has

852
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 3: moved a little bit towards Arizona, so I might grab

853
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: the one and a half.

854
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: Now New England's gonna be grabbing at Straws. They will

855
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: not have mac Jones for this game. Nine and a

856
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: half points they're giving up to the Packers on the road.

857
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 1: Forty two and a half is the over under Freeman,

858
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: would you bet this now before this number grows into

859
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 1: double digits, because it feels like it's going.

860
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 3: To talk to fits. I am betting the other game

861
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 3: that we just talked about right now.

862
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 1: I love this we should call it the Live Bet

863
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: look Ahead from now on, That's what we should call

864
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 1: this program. Fits How about you, buddy, what do you

865
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: think about this one? Do you think this number is

866
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 1: gonna go to double digits? Because I sure do.

867
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 5: Yeah.

868
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 4: Obviously, the implied total for New England is not very

869
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 4: high in a game where they're nine and a half

870
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: point dog in a total of what did we say

871
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 4: forty two? So you know, the Vegas sees this as

872
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: the rock fight that it is likely to be, And

873
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 4: like the Patriots defense still respectable, and the Packers defense

874
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 4: I think very good as we saw yesterday against Tampa,

875
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 4: even against you know, depleted wide receiver core.

876
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean this one feels about right.

877
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,439
Speaker 4: And you know, the Packers' home field advantage is maybe

878
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 4: worth a little more than other home field advantages. So

879
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 4: but then again, like they are short on talent themselves

880
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 4: at wide receiver, I don't know if they're capable of

881
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: having dropping thirty points or maybe even you know, twenty

882
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 4: four points on New England. So it's gonna be low scoring,

883
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 4: and I don't like betting a big favorite in a

884
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 4: low scoring game, so I'm probably just going to stay

885
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 4: away from this one.

886
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: What I think, Freeman, do you think that the Patriots

887
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 1: offense keeps giving green Bay more chances? And maybe this

888
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 1: total actually is more approachable than we realize because the

889
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: ineffectives or inability maybe of doing them to move the chains.

890
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 3: You know, I still like green Bay very much in

891
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 3: this spot. I have this line at ten, and so

892
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 3: it is I believe, maybe still eight and a half

893
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 3: at one or two books out there.

894
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: Nine and a half.

895
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 3: Oh, it's moved to nine and a half and then

896
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 3: ten at a lot of books. So if you can

897
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: get it at nine and a half, I would still

898
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 3: do that. Ten I think is the exact right number.

899
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Denver and Vegas.

900
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 1: Vegas has yet to win a game, and Denver, although

901
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: they won last night, I think we could all say

902
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: if you stayed up and watched that game, everyone who

903
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: did was a loser. That is now, at this point,

904
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: Vegas is minus one at home forty five and a half.

905
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: That is the total on this one. Friedman, do you

906
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,240
Speaker 1: have any early thoughts on this contest? In Vegas stay

907
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 1: off going zero to four and winless on the season.

908
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 1: Is Denver the right team to give him the W?

909
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 3: I can't imagine betting on Vegas in this spot.

910
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 2: I just I can't.

911
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 3: I can't. Maybe let me look and see if I

912
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: was okay good. I was gonna check to see if

913
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 3: this was one of the bets that Fits was going

914
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: to talk about. Yeah, but no, you know, Denver, like

915
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 3: I think they are, They're starting to round into form

916
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 3: a little bit, like they played the forty nine ers

917
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 3: very tough on Sunday Night Football, and I have Denver

918
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 3: actually is a slight favorite here and again, maybe this

919
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 3: is because I'm slower to adjust my power ratings, but

920
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 3: I don't think that we've seen anything out of Las

921
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 3: Vegas that would make me think like, oh, I need

922
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 3: to move them up the power rankings.

923
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 1: All right, So Freedman not a huge fan of Mac Hollins, obviously,

924
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: So well, let's let's talk to you, Fitz. Do you

925
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: see anything here for the Raiders to get right here

926
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: and stave off going OZ four?

927
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think this game is winnable for them,

928
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 4: Although I do think Friedman there was something he wrote

929
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 4: in a Schedule analysis article earlier this year that made

930
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: me gave me a strong urge to immediately jump on

931
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 4: the Raiders under their season win total, and that's already

932
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 4: looking really good, So thanks Freedman's.

933
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:49,280
Speaker 2: Still a good start there.

934
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, and we.

935
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 4: Remember we thought every game in the AFC West was

936
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 4: going to be a giant shootout with a total of

937
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 4: fifty or more, and here we are.

938
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 5: What isn't forty five and a half this one? Joe?

939
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, yes, yeah, yet, And I'm not at all attracted

940
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 4: to the over, and that's fair. Again, the Denver offense

941
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 4: is not looking great, so I do think Vegas could

942
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 4: win this game, but I'm not inclined to bet either

943
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 4: the side or total.

944
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: Now, something you said before fits kind of sparked a

945
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 1: question in me about this next game, because Kansas City first,

946
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay this was, you know, obviously going to be

947
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 1: like a big primetime Sunday night football game, and one's

948
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: really excited about. And these teams both seem to be

949
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:35,919
Speaker 1: kind of dragging themselves into this one. You mentioned how

950
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: the Chargers looked like they were beating the heck out

951
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: of Kansas City, and then obviously Kansas City turned things

952
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 1: around there. Kansady then goes and loses last week, obviously

953
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 1: to the Colts. Two and a half is the number

954
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: here on the road against Tampa. The Tampa defense is

955
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: very good at forty seven is the total fits Do

956
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 1: you see any opportunity here where Tampa is actually the

957
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: right side of this game to be on at the

958
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 1: plus two and a half despite all their shortcomings, but

959
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: their defense playing as good as it has this year.

960
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 4: Oh Man, Tampa just they did not look good offensively,

961
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 4: but they do get they do get Mike Evans back.

962
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 4: I mean, it was just a one game suspension, so

963
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 4: that could help quite a bit. The thing is, I

964
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: feel like the Kansas City defense is actually pretty good too,

965
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 4: and maybe a unit that doesn't get enough credits. And

966
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 4: like I just I know that Kansas City offense has struggled,

967
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 4: but we saw the Kansas City offense struggle early last year,

968
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 4: and I feel like it's just a matter of time

969
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 4: before Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

970
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 5: Figure it out.

971
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 4: So kind of have a leaning toward Kansas City, A

972
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:41,399
Speaker 4: very slight leaning here, you know, not a strong feel

973
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 4: on it. I want to I want to hear what

974
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 4: Friedman thinks about this one.

975
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 3: Freedman, I have this as a pick them, uh, And

976
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 3: so I am showing value on on Tampa Bay. I

977
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,879
Speaker 3: don't I don't feel great about it, I have to say,

978
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 3: but like this, this feels like a spot where I

979
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: will probably I don't know if I will end up

980
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 3: betting Tampa Bay because I've already bet the under. For me,

981
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 3: like that feels like the bet because it's a similar

982
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,240
Speaker 3: situation to what we had and we three with Tampa

983
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 3: Bay in Green Bay primarily driven by Tampa Bay. They've

984
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 3: got a great secondary, so I think they will be

985
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 3: able to challenge the Chiefs. The Chiefs have seemed desirous

986
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 3: to lean more into the running game than they have

987
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 3: in previous years, and we know Tampa Bay is going

988
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 3: to look to run the ball, and Tampa Bay, even

989
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: when they're you know, running the ball, they're not doing

990
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 3: it all that well and they're not throwing the ball

991
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 3: that well because of their offensive line woes and wide

992
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 3: receiver issues. So you know, forty seven was the number

993
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 3: that I bet last night. I'm not sure where it

994
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: is now, but where is the over under on this

995
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 3: Let's say.

996
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 2: The over under on this one is forty seven right now?

997
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, from the forty seven, it's forty six and a

998
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 3: half at bet MGM. Like, I think this will move

999
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 3: down a little bit so I that is where I'm looking.

1000
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 3: If I had to take a side, it would be

1001
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. But I feel a little bit better about

1002
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 3: the under.

1003
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: All right, last one here Monday night football, San Francisco

1004
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: hosting the Chargers. Now San Francisco had really owned the

1005
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 1: excuse me, San Francisco versus the Rams, pardon me. San

1006
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: Francisco's really owned the Rams up until the playoffs last year.

1007
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: I think it was six straight wins.

1008
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 1: So for whatever reason, just like Jacksonville seems to have

1009
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: the number of the Colts, seems like.

1010
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 2: The same kind of thing for San Francisco. And this

1011
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: is this feels like.

1012
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 1: A trap to me Friedman, where we see on Sunday

1013
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 1: Night football San Francisco struggle offensively all this stuff, and

1014
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: we go, oh, the Rams are going to crush.

1015
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 2: Rams are going to crush and then the forty nine

1016
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 2: Ers win.

1017
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: Vegas seems very prepared for this notion though, because the

1018
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers are actually one point favorite still in

1019
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: this game.

1020
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 2: How do you feel about this contest? Forty six is

1021
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: the number.

1022
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's it's worth you know, looking at

1023
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 3: what we saw in the look ahead market. So this

1024
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 3: number was two and a half in the look ahead market.

1025
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 3: It opened at at two and it's still two with

1026
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 3: some books, but now it is moving down to one

1027
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 3: and a half and one across the industry, so it

1028
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 3: is moving towards the Rams. I have San Francisco as

1029
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 3: only a slight favorite in this game, So I am

1030
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: on the Rams in this spot. And Joey, as you mentioned,

1031
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 3: like there is that trend that matchup between shanahan and McVeigh.

1032
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 3: Shanahan is eight and three against the spread versus McVeigh.

1033
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 3: But you know, like how much do you how much

1034
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 3: how much credit do you give that? You know, like

1035
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 3: I do incorporate some of those head to head variables

1036
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 3: in my model model my spreadsheet, but you know, like

1037
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 3: I don't overweight it. And so I still think that

1038
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 3: the Rams are are the better team in general. Now,

1039
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 3: this is played in San Francisco, so you give, you know,

1040
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 3: slight edge there, but it is just the slightest of edges.

1041
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 4: I have.

1042
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 3: San Francisco is a quarter point favorite in this spot.

1043
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 3: So I still see value on the Rams.

1044
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 1: Last year, there's a lot more value here, especially on

1045
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 1: the San Francisco side, because the Ms were always pretty

1046
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: strong favors despite the fact that time and time again

1047
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 1: they would lose this game seems to.

1048
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 2: Have caught up here.

1049
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,360
Speaker 1: To me, that does not a whole lot of appeal

1050
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: in this one, because the way it's set up already fits.

1051
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: Do you see it any differently?

1052
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 4: So, like Friedman, I see a little bit of value

1053
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 4: in the Rams, And I thought I initially saw a

1054
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 4: lot of value in the Rams, but then I sort

1055
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 4: of remembered how the trends have gone in recent years,

1056
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 4: and you know, some of those games have not even

1057
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 4: been close, like we have seen Shanahan really had mcveigh's number,

1058
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 4: which you know, seems kind of strange. And boy, I

1059
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 4: mean like for all the people who thought the benching

1060
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 4: of Trey Lance was an inevitability to hustle Jimmy G

1061
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 4: back in there, I think we've been given a pretty

1062
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,959
Speaker 4: good reminder that Jimmy G is like a replacement level

1063
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 4: quarterback at best. So, you know, even though Matthew Stafford

1064
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 4: will occasionally give the other team the ball very generously,

1065
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 4: I think there's a big quarterback advantage and a big

1066
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 4: offensive advantage right now for the Rams in this game.

1067
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 4: So you know, I am I think I'm gonna bet him.

1068
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 4: I think it's maybe not going to be as quite

1069
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 4: as much as I thought initially. It might be more

1070
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 4: of a one unit type of bets considering the trends.

1071
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: But I do see a little value on the Rams

1072
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 4: this week.

1073
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 3: All right, versus fits his whale play of like five units.

1074
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 4: That's right, hey, each unit being worth you know, with

1075
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 4: Abraham Lincoln's face on it.

1076
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 2: So if you'd like to meet my friend George.

1077
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 1: Washington, maybe he has something to say about this conversation.

1078
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 2: All right, Pat, let's stick with you. What are your

1079
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 2: three favorite early bets of the week in week four?

1080
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 5: All right, we talked about Atlanta.

1081
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 4: I just don't think Cleveland should be a three point

1082
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 4: favorite going into Atlanta.

1083
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take the Falcons in that one. Call

1084
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 5: me a.

1085
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 4: Sucker, Joe, but I'm a believer in the Jags. I

1086
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 4: like it as good as I feel about the Eagles,

1087
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 4: and as much as I think that offense is just

1088
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 4: a juggernaut, like, I think the Jags can maybe keep

1089
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 4: them under control a little bit and move the ball themselves.

1090
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take the Jags and the touchdown.

1091
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 4: And you know, I'm gonna totally Even though Friedman tried

1092
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 4: to steer me in a different way. Like I still

1093
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 4: think the Cults are a value at minus three against

1094
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 4: the Titans.

1095
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 5: I just think they're a much better team.

1096
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 1: All Right, he's got his blinders on for that one. Friedman,

1097
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 1: what are your three favorite early look ahead bets for you?

1098
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, given that we've seen line movement, what

1099
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 3: I put in the outline is probably not what I'm

1100
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 3: gonna go with. But I will say, man, feel disgusting

1101
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,879
Speaker 3: Arizona at plus one and a half. Just I do

1102
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 3: not believe in Carolina. I still think Arizona is markedly better.

1103
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 3: So I will go Arizona plus one and a half

1104
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 3: on the road in Carolina. I do like the under

1105
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 3: of forty seven in Green Bay, and no sorry Kansas

1106
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: City and Tampa Bay. And then I will for the

1107
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 3: fifth sorry for the third one. I will probably still

1108
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 3: go with the Rams. The Rams plus two against the

1109
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: forty nine ers on the road, I also go with

1110
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 3: the Rams.

1111
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. That's the early look ahead

1112
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: for week four. If you need more coverage, make sure

1113
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: you stick around with us here Betting Pros on the

1114
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Subscribe to Betting Pros on YouTube. Click the

1115
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 1: bell for notifications and have yourself some fun. Go over

1116
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,799
Speaker 1: to Sleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros. You'll get one

1117
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 1: hundred dollars deposit match when you use that promo code

1118
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 1: betting Pros. That's one word betting pros at Sleeper Dot

1119
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 1: app slash Betting Pros. Check it out, Go play the

1120
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 1: over undergame, Go play it with your friends and hang

1121
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 1: out just like I have fun here with my friends

1122
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: every single Monday morning talking about the week ahead. Hope

1123
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 1: you enjoyed the show and come back again for more

1124
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: BP content.

1125
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 2: That'll do it Bruss. When the story of the game

1126
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 2: goes on for Pat and Matt, I'm Joey P. We'll

1127
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 2: see you next time. Kids,