Speaker 1: Hey guys, it's Gil. Thanks for listening to our beating
Speaker 1: the book feed. We really appreciate it. I know I do.
Speaker 1: Did you know that? On top of the podcast, I
Speaker 1: also do a daily show called a Numbers Game on VSA,
Speaker 1: the sports betting network. That show is also its own podcast,
Speaker 1: and you can find it by searching for a Numbers
Speaker 1: Game wherever you get your podcasts. We did something on
Speaker 1: the show this morning that I think you'll like it.
Speaker 1: I wanted you to hear it. Take a listen. The
Speaker 1: numbers told the story they always do. It's one of
Speaker 1: those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers
Speaker 1: game with Gil Alexander, gone vis in Tuesday morning too.
Speaker 1: It is a numbers game in Visadesports Betting Network, Visa
Speaker 1: dot Com, the Visa app, game, plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV
Speaker 1: all probably brought you by bet MGM. It's Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: It's Kelly Bidlin. And as we're doing this show, there's
Speaker 1: all kinds of screens on at the studio. What's this
Speaker 1: reporter here that had to push somebody out of the
Speaker 1: way at the game last night?
Speaker 2: This last night, I'll go We'll get wired to pull
Speaker 2: it in for later, But it is a CBS four
Speaker 2: Miami reporter who was at the Golden Knights game last
Speaker 2: night who did the best example I've ever seen of
Speaker 2: the drunk fan about to get in your live shot
Speaker 2: and she's just stiff arming.
Speaker 1: It over again. Wow. Good for her, Well done. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about that here momentarily. There's not much to say
Speaker 1: about the Knight's domination of the Florida Panthers seven to
Speaker 1: two yesterday, a touchdown. They take it two to nothing
Speaker 1: lead in the best of seven Stanley Cup final, and
Speaker 1: we will always have our array of guests. Drew Denzik
Speaker 1: will join us talk French Open and obviously the NBA
Speaker 1: Finals as well. Mark Porchard on baseball. Chrissy Andrews joins us.
Speaker 1: If you were with us yesterday, Spanky was on with us.
Speaker 1: Spanky has a new Sports Gambling Hall of Fame that
Speaker 1: already has three inductees, Billy Walters, Roxy Roxborough, Lefty Rosenthal,
Speaker 1: the Babe Ruth of Ty Cobb and the Walter Big
Speaker 1: Train Johnson if you will, of the Sports Gambley Hall
Speaker 1: of Fame. Christy comes in today to announce the next
Speaker 1: two names. The next two names on that list, I
Speaker 1: believe grand total of ten inductees. I'm not sure, but
Speaker 1: we will announce inductee number four and five after Billy Walters,
Speaker 1: Roxy Roxborough and Lefty Rosenthal today on the show, So
Speaker 1: we look forward to that. And Christy knew him personally, Kelly,
Speaker 1: that's the difference. He knew them personally, So we should
Speaker 1: we should absolutely uh be appreciative of that because one
Speaker 1: day soon we will not have that kind of contact
Speaker 1: with the legends of sports betting, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: It's one of the uh you know, even for for
Speaker 2: us that didn't know all these guys personally. But it's
Speaker 2: been very cool part of our careers. And I will
Speaker 2: speak for you, but at least from my career coming
Speaker 2: out here over the past five years, just to associate
Speaker 2: with guys like Chris and Vinnie and Jimmy right here, no,
Speaker 2: I mean goes so far back in the history of
Speaker 2: Vegas and sports betting here into Yeah, to honor the
Speaker 2: people that came before you that did this kind of
Speaker 2: stuff is always important real quick here, because we were
Speaker 2: chuck full of guests and they're gonna stay with us
Speaker 2: in some cases for more than one segment, so you
Speaker 2: and I won't have much time to talk about things
Speaker 2: like the NBA Draft and.
Speaker 1: College World Series, which we will get into. We will
Speaker 1: edge into the show, but real quick again with the
Speaker 1: Vegas gold Knights. I mean, it does strike me if
Speaker 1: you watch this game last night, a game filled chalk
Speaker 1: full of penalty minutes, that you just go back to
Speaker 1: this arc of this postseason and it just drives home
Speaker 1: the point of how you can beat this sport over
Speaker 1: time is just remarkable to me if you can. Because
Speaker 1: once again the postseason begins, it's the most random of postseasons,
Speaker 1: although stats by Lopez says baseball is actually more random.
Speaker 1: But again, for eighty percent of the favorites to get
Speaker 1: through in the NHLD, you'd have to play best of
Speaker 1: fifty ones as opposed to the best of sevens they
Speaker 1: play in the NBA historically. And you had a Florida
Speaker 1: Panthers team that was the A seed in the Eastern
Speaker 1: Conference who beat the historically great Boston Bruins. They have
Speaker 1: sixty five wins in the regular season. Then the Toronto
Speaker 1: Maple Leafs, who came off their first playoff series winsince
Speaker 1: two thousand and four, and then the Carolina Hurricanes. As
Speaker 1: any McNeil calls them who Again, when we went round
Speaker 1: by round and we would ask our hockey experts, like
Speaker 1: power rank these teams, those were the ones that came
Speaker 1: up in those rounds. The Vegas Golden Knights were never
Speaker 1: that team. So that's also the thing that's interesting is
Speaker 1: while people will seize on the fact that the Panthers
Speaker 1: are an eighth seed, and now you'll hear after a
Speaker 1: two to nothing deficit, a lot of folks are like, wow,
Speaker 1: I mean they're in AHC. They needed Pittsburgh to lose
Speaker 1: that final game. Blah blah blah. People forgot about that
Speaker 1: in the month of in the months of April and
Speaker 1: May temporarily, now they're back to that with the Vegas
Speaker 1: Golden Knights. This was a team that got off to
Speaker 1: a really hot start along with teams like the Bruins
Speaker 1: and the Devils and the Hurricanes. But if you just
Speaker 1: went around town, nobody really thought this was going to
Speaker 1: be a great team. They were considered the most fraudulent
Speaker 1: of those great starting teams. And even when the even
Speaker 1: with our hockey extress and I'm not disparaging our hockey
Speaker 1: ectress because I think it's widely held nobody really thought
Speaker 1: this was the best team around by round either, And
Speaker 1: yet here we are now and my mother could tell
Speaker 1: you that they were by far the better team last night.
Speaker 2: Yeah you got uh, well you got Jonathan Marchissow's playing
Speaker 2: like uh, he's like to Miami right in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: He's just like scoring all the time now when he
Speaker 2: was like I was struggling before.
Speaker 1: And is he and is he the con smyth winner?
Speaker 1: If Vegas wins this right now, he might be Well,
Speaker 1: he shifted big time.
Speaker 2: Are minus one oh five on him now minus one
Speaker 2: oh five Jack Eichl plus four twenty five eight and
Speaker 2: he'll five plus five hundred. Matthew could chuck ten to one.
Speaker 1: Well, I think Will Hill has Marshall saw at thirty
Speaker 1: four to one. Don't quote me on that, but I
Speaker 1: believe that's what he has. But again, just to seven.
Speaker 1: Would it shock you if all of a sudden the
Speaker 1: Panthers came back now A lot of people would say
Speaker 1: yes it would, because they just don't appear to be
Speaker 1: that good. Bobrovski obviously cleaned up a lot of their
Speaker 1: weaknesses through the postseason, and I mentioned this to Andy
Speaker 1: McNeil yesterday, Bobovsky made this unbelievable save early in Game
Speaker 1: one and you're like, wow, point blank Rangs, They're never
Speaker 1: going to score him. But by design, the Vegas Golden
Speaker 1: Knights have tried to figure out how to screen him
Speaker 1: and take shots from further and it is just worked
Speaker 1: to a charm. But they're just beating the entire team
Speaker 1: at this point. We'll see what our hockey experts have
Speaker 1: to say about this on the run up to Game three,
Speaker 1: which is on Thursday. The Golden Knights now minus five
Speaker 1: fifty five dollars are worth of five dollars to win
Speaker 1: this series, now Florida north of four dollars on the
Speaker 1: adjusted series price. You want some of that sort you do? Yeah,
Speaker 1: kind of. I mean, I know it's hockey.
Speaker 2: I don't like it's hockey, right, I know, like me
Speaker 2: and you talk about this, and look, there might just
Speaker 2: be some of this stuff we just don't get. But
Speaker 2: it feels like so this sports feels so random randoms
Speaker 2: and you're telling me I get four to one on
Speaker 2: a dog. The thing is, you can't convince me differently
Speaker 2: after all these years.
Speaker 1: You know. It's just so we'll see what well, folks
Speaker 1: by the way the Panthers are minus one twenty favorites
Speaker 1: in game number three, so they are slight favorites to
Speaker 1: get off the schneid and at least do what they
Speaker 1: have to do in Game three to keep this interesting.
Speaker 1: Let's start there. The other thing is I always I
Speaker 1: never missed an opportunity on this show because I know
Speaker 1: we're all so focused on sports betting, super close to
Speaker 1: the sun on sports betting, and this does have a
Speaker 1: sports betting element to it. But whenever nerdy baseball stuff
Speaker 1: collides with sports betting, I love it. And back in
Speaker 1: the day, I don't know people who have listened to
Speaker 1: this show long enough, remember when I don't know who
Speaker 1: it was, Back in twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen, we
Speaker 1: were talking about MVP and someone was flirting with something historically,
Speaker 1: I want to say, with the Triple Crown. It never happened.
Speaker 1: But the point I was making back then was in
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown most
Speaker 1: home runs RBI and average, best batting average in the
Speaker 1: American League, there was this debate. There was a hot
Speaker 1: debate in baseball circles who should win MVP. Should it
Speaker 1: beat Cabrera who won the Triple Crown, or should it
Speaker 1: be Mike Trout, who, in all kinds of new fangled metrics,
Speaker 1: new fangled for most for those of us who bet
Speaker 1: baseball for a while, wasn't so new fangles for us,
Speaker 1: but war and waited on base and that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: Should he have gotten the MVP? And my point at
Speaker 1: that time was, it had been forty five years since
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty seven when Carl Yastremsky won the Triple Crown.
Speaker 1: He wanted in the American lea for the Boston Red Sox.
Speaker 1: And if you are a baseball purist or someone who
Speaker 1: files usport of baseball, the Triple Crown held this mythical
Speaker 1: status for all of those forty five years. And my
Speaker 1: point was in twenty twelve, when Miguel Cabrera finally did
Speaker 1: it after that long of a wait four and a
Speaker 1: half decades, you had to give him the MVP. Now
Speaker 1: the next year when it was a Cabrera Trout debate
Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen, then you can put in your and
Speaker 1: no one loves analytics more than I do. Then you
Speaker 1: can sort of use that as justification for trout. But
Speaker 1: if you've talked about something that didn't happen for forty
Speaker 1: five years as this hallowed thing, a triple crown, however
Speaker 1: arbitrary one might decide that is it was something really
Speaker 1: valued in baseball circle. So you had to give it
Speaker 1: to Miguel Cabrera. Enter the year twenty twenty three, and
Speaker 1: we have the curious case Kelly bin linnov Luis Areas
Speaker 1: of the Miami Marlins. The Marlins who are three games
Speaker 1: above five hundred against all sort of conventional wisdom, a
Speaker 1: lot of that having to do with their record in
Speaker 1: one run games. But Ariz got his batting average on
Speaker 1: a three four day yesterday that included a two bagger
Speaker 1: to three ninety nine. That's the best over the first
Speaker 1: sixty one games since two thousand and eight. And Chipper Jones.
Speaker 1: Now the question becomes with this, is seventy five to
Speaker 1: one on him worth a bet in the National League
Speaker 1: MVP race, which right now has Ronald Acunya Junior as
Speaker 1: the short shot to win. That of the Atlanta Braves,
Speaker 1: of course, and by the way, the people at the
Speaker 1: top are, you know, on teams the usual suspects of
Speaker 1: Counya Junior Freddy Freeman of the Dodgers, Mookie Bets of
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, even Pete Alonzo, who has the most home
Speaker 1: runs in Major League Baseball and I believe is second
Speaker 1: in RBI in the National League. Pete Alonzo there at
Speaker 1: fourteen to one, but you see way down there as
Speaker 1: aries at seventy five to one, And so the question becomes,
Speaker 1: is that worth a bet? The point I'm getting at
Speaker 1: is no one has hit four hundred in Major League
Speaker 1: Baseball since Ted Williams, who literally wrote the book The
Speaker 1: Sides of Hitting. No one has hit four hundred since
Speaker 1: nineteen forty one, when Ted Williams hit four h six. Now,
Speaker 1: we have had a flirtations with this in the past,
Speaker 1: most notably when I was a kid. In nineteen seventy seven,
Speaker 1: Rod Carew hit three eighty eight and in nineteen eighty
Speaker 1: George Brett hit three ninety. If you collected baseball cards
Speaker 1: as a kid back then, you'll remember those. We thought
Speaker 1: those cards will be, you know, priceless forever. It didn't
Speaker 1: work out that way with the baseball card market, but anyway,
Speaker 1: both of those guys won MVP awards back then. Since then, however,
Speaker 1: the nature of the game has obviously taken many a turn.
Speaker 1: We've had a steroid era where guys who did have
Speaker 1: huge batting averages didn't get the MVP. So in the
Speaker 1: case of you know, Chipper Jones, who ended up hitting
Speaker 1: well first of all, Tony Gwynn nineteen ninety four strikes
Speaker 1: shortened year he hit three ninety four. That's the closest
Speaker 1: player who's ever gotten to four hundred since then. He
Speaker 1: did not win the MVP. And yes, they did give
Speaker 1: out the MVP that year. I mentioned before Larry Walker.
Speaker 1: I did not mention Larry Walker nineteen ninety nine hit
Speaker 1: three seventy nine. He did not win the MVP that year.
Speaker 1: The best average through sixty one games since Ted Williams
Speaker 1: hit four hundred and nineteen forty one, Chipper Jones in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight four eighteen, Larry Walker in ninety seven,
Speaker 1: four to sixteen, Paul O'Neil nineteen ninety four to four
Speaker 1: to eleven, Rod Crew nineteen eighty three, four to eleven,
Speaker 1: Stan Usual nineteen forty eight, four to eight, on and on.
Speaker 1: Luis Ariaz has the tenth highest batting average currently of
Speaker 1: anybody through sixty one games since Ted Williams did it.
Speaker 1: And so the point on the seventy five to one
Speaker 1: I want to mention is you've got to overcome two things.
Speaker 1: One you gotta figure can he get to four hundred.
Speaker 1: And the point is that mathematically none of those guys
Speaker 1: I just mentioned did. Mathematically it is very unlikely for
Speaker 1: him to do so. And even if you believed it,
Speaker 1: even if you believe you know what, Gil I do,
Speaker 1: think more than one out of seventy five times the
Speaker 1: rest of the way, Louis Arias, if I ran it
Speaker 1: through a simulation, would hit four hundred. When all is
Speaker 1: said and done, Then you would have to get to
Speaker 1: the part about human beings actually saying yes, hitting the
Speaker 1: hallowed four hundred would actually get them to vote for
Speaker 1: him in this day and age. And I think, because
Speaker 1: you have both of those two uncertainties, I actually don't
Speaker 1: think seventy five to one is a good bet. Give
Speaker 1: me double that before I actually bet.
Speaker 2: Golf. Breaking news on the other side, major major news
Speaker 1: Coming up next, numbers games,