WEBVTT - Can Luis Arraez Win The NL MVP? | June 9, 2023

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<v Speaker 1>Hey guys, it's Gil. Thanks for listening to our beating

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<v Speaker 1>the book feed. We really appreciate it. I know I do.

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<v Speaker 1>Did you know that? On top of the podcast, I

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<v Speaker 1>also do a daily show called a Numbers Game on VSA,

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<v Speaker 1>the sports betting network. That show is also its own podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can find it by searching for a Numbers

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<v Speaker 1>Game wherever you get your podcasts. We did something on

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<v Speaker 1>the show this morning that I think you'll like it.

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted you to hear it. Take a listen. The

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<v Speaker 1>numbers told the story they always do. It's one of

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<v Speaker 1>those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers

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<v Speaker 1>game with Gil Alexander, gone vis in Tuesday morning too.

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<v Speaker 1>It is a numbers game in Visadesports Betting Network, Visa

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com, the Visa app, game, plus iHeartRadio YouTube TV

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<v Speaker 1>all probably brought you by bet MGM. It's Gil Alexander,

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<v Speaker 1>It's Kelly Bidlin. And as we're doing this show, there's

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<v Speaker 1>all kinds of screens on at the studio. What's this

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<v Speaker 1>reporter here that had to push somebody out of the

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<v Speaker 1>way at the game last night?

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<v Speaker 2>This last night, I'll go We'll get wired to pull

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<v Speaker 2>it in for later, But it is a CBS four

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<v Speaker 2>Miami reporter who was at the Golden Knights game last

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<v Speaker 2>night who did the best example I've ever seen of

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<v Speaker 2>the drunk fan about to get in your live shot

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<v Speaker 2>and she's just stiff arming.

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<v Speaker 1>It over again. Wow. Good for her, Well done. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk about that here momentarily. There's not much to say

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<v Speaker 1>about the Knight's domination of the Florida Panthers seven to

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<v Speaker 1>two yesterday, a touchdown. They take it two to nothing

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<v Speaker 1>lead in the best of seven Stanley Cup final, and

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<v Speaker 1>we will always have our array of guests. Drew Denzik

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<v Speaker 1>will join us talk French Open and obviously the NBA

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<v Speaker 1>Finals as well. Mark Porchard on baseball. Chrissy Andrews joins us.

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<v Speaker 1>If you were with us yesterday, Spanky was on with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Spanky has a new Sports Gambling Hall of Fame that

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<v Speaker 1>already has three inductees, Billy Walters, Roxy Roxborough, Lefty Rosenthal,

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<v Speaker 1>the Babe Ruth of Ty Cobb and the Walter Big

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<v Speaker 1>Train Johnson if you will, of the Sports Gambley Hall

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<v Speaker 1>of Fame. Christy comes in today to announce the next

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<v Speaker 1>two names. The next two names on that list, I

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<v Speaker 1>believe grand total of ten inductees. I'm not sure, but

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<v Speaker 1>we will announce inductee number four and five after Billy Walters,

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<v Speaker 1>Roxy Roxborough and Lefty Rosenthal today on the show, So

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<v Speaker 1>we look forward to that. And Christy knew him personally, Kelly,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the difference. He knew them personally, So we should

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<v Speaker 1>we should absolutely uh be appreciative of that because one

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<v Speaker 1>day soon we will not have that kind of contact

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<v Speaker 1>with the legends of sports betting, that's for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>It's one of the uh you know, even for for

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<v Speaker 2>us that didn't know all these guys personally. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>been very cool part of our careers. And I will

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<v Speaker 2>speak for you, but at least from my career coming

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<v Speaker 2>out here over the past five years, just to associate

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<v Speaker 2>with guys like Chris and Vinnie and Jimmy right here, no,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean goes so far back in the history of

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<v Speaker 2>Vegas and sports betting here into Yeah, to honor the

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<v Speaker 2>people that came before you that did this kind of

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<v Speaker 2>stuff is always important real quick here, because we were

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<v Speaker 2>chuck full of guests and they're gonna stay with us

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<v Speaker 2>in some cases for more than one segment, so you

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<v Speaker 2>and I won't have much time to talk about things

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<v Speaker 2>like the NBA Draft and.

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<v Speaker 1>College World Series, which we will get into. We will

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<v Speaker 1>edge into the show, but real quick again with the

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<v Speaker 1>Vegas gold Knights. I mean, it does strike me if

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<v Speaker 1>you watch this game last night, a game filled chalk

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<v Speaker 1>full of penalty minutes, that you just go back to

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<v Speaker 1>this arc of this postseason and it just drives home

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<v Speaker 1>the point of how you can beat this sport over

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<v Speaker 1>time is just remarkable to me if you can. Because

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<v Speaker 1>once again the postseason begins, it's the most random of postseasons,

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<v Speaker 1>although stats by Lopez says baseball is actually more random.

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<v Speaker 1>But again, for eighty percent of the favorites to get

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<v Speaker 1>through in the NHLD, you'd have to play best of

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<v Speaker 1>fifty ones as opposed to the best of sevens they

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<v Speaker 1>play in the NBA historically. And you had a Florida

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<v Speaker 1>Panthers team that was the A seed in the Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>Conference who beat the historically great Boston Bruins. They have

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<v Speaker 1>sixty five wins in the regular season. Then the Toronto

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<v Speaker 1>Maple Leafs, who came off their first playoff series winsince

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and four, and then the Carolina Hurricanes. As

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<v Speaker 1>any McNeil calls them who Again, when we went round

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<v Speaker 1>by round and we would ask our hockey experts, like

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<v Speaker 1>power rank these teams, those were the ones that came

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<v Speaker 1>up in those rounds. The Vegas Golden Knights were never

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<v Speaker 1>that team. So that's also the thing that's interesting is

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<v Speaker 1>while people will seize on the fact that the Panthers

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<v Speaker 1>are an eighth seed, and now you'll hear after a

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<v Speaker 1>two to nothing deficit, a lot of folks are like, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean they're in AHC. They needed Pittsburgh to lose

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<v Speaker 1>that final game. Blah blah blah. People forgot about that

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<v Speaker 1>in the month of in the months of April and

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<v Speaker 1>May temporarily, now they're back to that with the Vegas

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<v Speaker 1>Golden Knights. This was a team that got off to

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<v Speaker 1>a really hot start along with teams like the Bruins

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<v Speaker 1>and the Devils and the Hurricanes. But if you just

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<v Speaker 1>went around town, nobody really thought this was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a great team. They were considered the most fraudulent

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<v Speaker 1>of those great starting teams. And even when the even

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<v Speaker 1>with our hockey extress and I'm not disparaging our hockey

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<v Speaker 1>ectress because I think it's widely held nobody really thought

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<v Speaker 1>this was the best team around by round either, And

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<v Speaker 1>yet here we are now and my mother could tell

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<v Speaker 1>you that they were by far the better team last night.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah you got uh, well you got Jonathan Marchissow's playing

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<v Speaker 2>like uh, he's like to Miami right in the playoffs.

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<v Speaker 2>He's just like scoring all the time now when he

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<v Speaker 2>was like I was struggling before.

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<v Speaker 1>And is he and is he the con smyth winner?

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<v Speaker 1>If Vegas wins this right now, he might be Well,

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<v Speaker 1>he shifted big time.

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<v Speaker 2>Are minus one oh five on him now minus one

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<v Speaker 2>oh five Jack Eichl plus four twenty five eight and

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<v Speaker 2>he'll five plus five hundred. Matthew could chuck ten to one.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think Will Hill has Marshall saw at thirty

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<v Speaker 1>four to one. Don't quote me on that, but I

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<v Speaker 1>believe that's what he has. But again, just to seven.

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<v Speaker 1>Would it shock you if all of a sudden the

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<v Speaker 1>Panthers came back now A lot of people would say

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<v Speaker 1>yes it would, because they just don't appear to be

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<v Speaker 1>that good. Bobrovski obviously cleaned up a lot of their

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<v Speaker 1>weaknesses through the postseason, and I mentioned this to Andy

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<v Speaker 1>McNeil yesterday, Bobovsky made this unbelievable save early in Game

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<v Speaker 1>one and you're like, wow, point blank Rangs, They're never

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<v Speaker 1>going to score him. But by design, the Vegas Golden

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<v Speaker 1>Knights have tried to figure out how to screen him

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<v Speaker 1>and take shots from further and it is just worked

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<v Speaker 1>to a charm. But they're just beating the entire team

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. We'll see what our hockey experts have

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<v Speaker 1>to say about this on the run up to Game three,

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<v Speaker 1>which is on Thursday. The Golden Knights now minus five

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five dollars are worth of five dollars to win

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<v Speaker 1>this series, now Florida north of four dollars on the

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<v Speaker 1>adjusted series price. You want some of that sort you do? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of. I mean, I know it's hockey.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't like it's hockey, right, I know, like me

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<v Speaker 2>and you talk about this, and look, there might just

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<v Speaker 2>be some of this stuff we just don't get. But

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<v Speaker 2>it feels like so this sports feels so random randoms

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<v Speaker 2>and you're telling me I get four to one on

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<v Speaker 2>a dog. The thing is, you can't convince me differently

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<v Speaker 2>after all these years.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. It's just so we'll see what well, folks

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<v Speaker 1>by the way the Panthers are minus one twenty favorites

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<v Speaker 1>in game number three, so they are slight favorites to

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<v Speaker 1>get off the schneid and at least do what they

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<v Speaker 1>have to do in Game three to keep this interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start there. The other thing is I always I

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<v Speaker 1>never missed an opportunity on this show because I know

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<v Speaker 1>we're all so focused on sports betting, super close to

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<v Speaker 1>the sun on sports betting, and this does have a

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<v Speaker 1>sports betting element to it. But whenever nerdy baseball stuff

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<v Speaker 1>collides with sports betting, I love it. And back in

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<v Speaker 1>the day, I don't know people who have listened to

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<v Speaker 1>this show long enough, remember when I don't know who

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<v Speaker 1>it was, Back in twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen, we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about MVP and someone was flirting with something historically,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to say, with the Triple Crown. It never happened.

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<v Speaker 1>But the point I was making back then was in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twelve, when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown most

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<v Speaker 1>home runs RBI and average, best batting average in the

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<v Speaker 1>American League, there was this debate. There was a hot

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<v Speaker 1>debate in baseball circles who should win MVP. Should it

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<v Speaker 1>beat Cabrera who won the Triple Crown, or should it

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<v Speaker 1>be Mike Trout, who, in all kinds of new fangled metrics,

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<v Speaker 1>new fangled for most for those of us who bet

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<v Speaker 1>baseball for a while, wasn't so new fangles for us,

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<v Speaker 1>but war and waited on base and that kind of thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Should he have gotten the MVP? And my point at

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<v Speaker 1>that time was, it had been forty five years since

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen sixty seven when Carl Yastremsky won the Triple Crown.

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<v Speaker 1>He wanted in the American lea for the Boston Red Sox.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you are a baseball purist or someone who

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<v Speaker 1>files usport of baseball, the Triple Crown held this mythical

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<v Speaker 1>status for all of those forty five years. And my

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<v Speaker 1>point was in twenty twelve, when Miguel Cabrera finally did

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<v Speaker 1>it after that long of a wait four and a

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<v Speaker 1>half decades, you had to give him the MVP. Now

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<v Speaker 1>the next year when it was a Cabrera Trout debate

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty thirteen, then you can put in your and

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<v Speaker 1>no one loves analytics more than I do. Then you

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<v Speaker 1>can sort of use that as justification for trout. But

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<v Speaker 1>if you've talked about something that didn't happen for forty

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<v Speaker 1>five years as this hallowed thing, a triple crown, however

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<v Speaker 1>arbitrary one might decide that is it was something really

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<v Speaker 1>valued in baseball circle. So you had to give it

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<v Speaker 1>to Miguel Cabrera. Enter the year twenty twenty three, and

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<v Speaker 1>we have the curious case Kelly bin linnov Luis Areas

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<v Speaker 1>of the Miami Marlins. The Marlins who are three games

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<v Speaker 1>above five hundred against all sort of conventional wisdom, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of that having to do with their record in

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<v Speaker 1>one run games. But Ariz got his batting average on

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<v Speaker 1>a three four day yesterday that included a two bagger

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<v Speaker 1>to three ninety nine. That's the best over the first

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<v Speaker 1>sixty one games since two thousand and eight. And Chipper Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>Now the question becomes with this, is seventy five to

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<v Speaker 1>one on him worth a bet in the National League

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<v Speaker 1>MVP race, which right now has Ronald Acunya Junior as

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<v Speaker 1>the short shot to win. That of the Atlanta Braves,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, and by the way, the people at the

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<v Speaker 1>top are, you know, on teams the usual suspects of

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<v Speaker 1>Counya Junior Freddy Freeman of the Dodgers, Mookie Bets of

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<v Speaker 1>the Dodgers, even Pete Alonzo, who has the most home

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<v Speaker 1>runs in Major League Baseball and I believe is second

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<v Speaker 1>in RBI in the National League. Pete Alonzo there at

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<v Speaker 1>fourteen to one, but you see way down there as

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<v Speaker 1>aries at seventy five to one, And so the question becomes,

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<v Speaker 1>is that worth a bet? The point I'm getting at

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<v Speaker 1>is no one has hit four hundred in Major League

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<v Speaker 1>Baseball since Ted Williams, who literally wrote the book The

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<v Speaker 1>Sides of Hitting. No one has hit four hundred since

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen forty one, when Ted Williams hit four h six. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>we have had a flirtations with this in the past,

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<v Speaker 1>most notably when I was a kid. In nineteen seventy seven,

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<v Speaker 1>Rod Carew hit three eighty eight and in nineteen eighty

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<v Speaker 1>George Brett hit three ninety. If you collected baseball cards

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<v Speaker 1>as a kid back then, you'll remember those. We thought

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<v Speaker 1>those cards will be, you know, priceless forever. It didn't

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<v Speaker 1>work out that way with the baseball card market, but anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>both of those guys won MVP awards back then. Since then, however,

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<v Speaker 1>the nature of the game has obviously taken many a turn.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had a steroid era where guys who did have

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<v Speaker 1>huge batting averages didn't get the MVP. So in the

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<v Speaker 1>case of you know, Chipper Jones, who ended up hitting

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<v Speaker 1>well first of all, Tony Gwynn nineteen ninety four strikes

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<v Speaker 1>shortened year he hit three ninety four. That's the closest

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<v Speaker 1>player who's ever gotten to four hundred since then. He

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<v Speaker 1>did not win the MVP. And yes, they did give

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<v Speaker 1>out the MVP that year. I mentioned before Larry Walker.

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<v Speaker 1>I did not mention Larry Walker nineteen ninety nine hit

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<v Speaker 1>three seventy nine. He did not win the MVP that year.

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<v Speaker 1>The best average through sixty one games since Ted Williams

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<v Speaker 1>hit four hundred and nineteen forty one, Chipper Jones in

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight four eighteen, Larry Walker in ninety seven,

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<v Speaker 1>four to sixteen, Paul O'Neil nineteen ninety four to four

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<v Speaker 1>to eleven, Rod Crew nineteen eighty three, four to eleven,

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<v Speaker 1>Stan Usual nineteen forty eight, four to eight, on and on.

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<v Speaker 1>Luis Ariaz has the tenth highest batting average currently of

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<v Speaker 1>anybody through sixty one games since Ted Williams did it.

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<v Speaker 1>And so the point on the seventy five to one

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<v Speaker 1>I want to mention is you've got to overcome two things.

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<v Speaker 1>One you gotta figure can he get to four hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>And the point is that mathematically none of those guys

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<v Speaker 1>I just mentioned did. Mathematically it is very unlikely for

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<v Speaker 1>him to do so. And even if you believed it,

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<v Speaker 1>even if you believe you know what, Gil I do,

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<v Speaker 1>think more than one out of seventy five times the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the way, Louis Arias, if I ran it

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<v Speaker 1>through a simulation, would hit four hundred. When all is

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<v Speaker 1>said and done, Then you would have to get to

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<v Speaker 1>the part about human beings actually saying yes, hitting the

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<v Speaker 1>hallowed four hundred would actually get them to vote for

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<v Speaker 1>him in this day and age. And I think, because

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<v Speaker 1>you have both of those two uncertainties, I actually don't

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<v Speaker 1>think seventy five to one is a good bet. Give

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<v Speaker 1>me double that before I actually bet.

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<v Speaker 2>Golf. Breaking news on the other side, major major news

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up next, numbers games,