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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA All right,

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Speaker 1: here we.

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Speaker 2: Go right in the court, ten seconds remaining, so it

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Speaker 2: just goes through un to the basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 3: It's the truth for the wind God.

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Speaker 4: A miracle.

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Speaker 1: I'm just water hit that.

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Speaker 3: One from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. This is the college Basketball weekend betting Preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky and joining me as always my fellow BBOC

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Speaker 1: co hosts Greg Wadell, the one and only Jim Root

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Speaker 1: from the Three Man weave a lot to get to today.

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Speaker 1: As always, we'll get to our futures round table, a

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Speaker 1: little quick rant of the week coming up. We'll buy

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Speaker 1: low and or sell high on some teams, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll go rapid fire through a very very appetizing and

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Speaker 1: intriguing weekend slate with a lot of marquee games on

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Speaker 1: the docket. So excited to get your guys thoughts there.

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Speaker 1: Let's I guess let's get right into it with a

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Speaker 1: rant of the week. Could be anything, takeaway, could be bad, good,

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Speaker 1: and different wherever you want to go with it.

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Speaker 5: Remember this is a safe space.

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Speaker 4: You know what pisses me off most of all. Okay,

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Speaker 4: you're now baby.

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Speaker 1: I'm ran. Why not?

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Speaker 4: You've got to let it out somehow.

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Speaker 1: I have a couple of things I want to touch on.

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Speaker 1: One is it's ugly what's going on with the Whack

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Speaker 1: and Utah Valley. I mean, they're not even streamed, They're

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Speaker 1: not Their games aren't even gonna be streamed now that

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Speaker 1: just got announced the rest of this season. I assume

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Speaker 1: they're going to sue. But as of right now, they're

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Speaker 1: not going to be in the final Whack Conference tournament.

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Speaker 1: And I mean they would probably be. Will theybe probably

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Speaker 1: the favorite?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yeah them. Baptist and Arlington would be close behind, but

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Speaker 1: Utah ally would have been the favorite. So now it's

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Speaker 1: a sixteen tournament. I already know that I'm going to

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Speaker 1: lose money on Tarleton, and that I think on the

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Speaker 1: upside of Tarleton, I don't I never know what's going

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Speaker 1: on with that team, who's coaching them, if deyor Johnson's playing,

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Speaker 1: where Freddie Hicks is in the country, who knows. But

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Speaker 1: I'm already gonna lose money on that. But this is

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Speaker 1: maybe it's just a nice homage to the final Great

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Speaker 1: West to a conference tournament ten. I don't know, thirteen

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Speaker 1: years are going to be twenty thirteen when Chicago's and

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Speaker 1: that happened because Utah Valley was leaving. Oddly enough, Chicago

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Speaker 1: State won on the final day to finish in a

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Speaker 1: tie for last, but they got the three seed in

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Speaker 1: that five team bracket and then they ended up winning it,

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Speaker 1: but they went to the cit didn't get an NCAA

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Speaker 1: tournament birth the wa The Whack winner will go to

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Speaker 1: the NCAA tournament. But one of my all time favorite

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Speaker 1: conference tournaments, the Old Great West. Uh So, yeah, pretty sad.

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Speaker 1: What's going on in the Whack? Some other key takeaways.

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Speaker 1: The UNLB Presno game was wild, by the way. I

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Speaker 1: had some awful meltdowns. I have to whoever I bet

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Speaker 1: on the last two minutes is insane. I did the

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Speaker 1: meltdowns I've had over the past week. Finally, o'cory got

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Speaker 1: me a nice winner with us so shout out to

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Speaker 1: Abuca for the layup at the bell to get Stanford

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Speaker 1: plus four to the window. But the Bonnies against Mason

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Speaker 1: was a nightmare out of hell. I mean, they couldn't.

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Speaker 1: This is a team that's like eighty percent from the line.

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Speaker 1: They could not make a free throw a little fourteen

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Speaker 1: point ly eight minutes ago. We're just complete meltdown mode.

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Speaker 1: I mean I could go on and on. But Bradley

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Speaker 1: against Valpo, they give up a three, they fall down,

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Speaker 1: give up another three, miss a free throw, and then

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Speaker 1: Valpo doesn't foul over the last twenty seconds. Cal Baptist

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Speaker 1: luckily won in overtime, but they were up ten with

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Speaker 1: a minute to go and blew that lead, got nine

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Speaker 1: at So shout out o'cry for getting me right. I

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Speaker 1: needed that. So just the ups and downs of college basketball,

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Speaker 1: that's it's it's a grind. You got to just accept

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get screwed. Teams are gonna melt down, and

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Speaker 1: that's part of why I love it though. And I

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Speaker 1: know we're gonna talk about this later, but actually I'll

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Speaker 1: say that. Yeah, I'll save that and get to you guys,

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Speaker 1: So Jim, I'll get to you first. Any thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the Whack and and where do you want to go?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? The Whack makes me said, I love Whack Vegas.

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Speaker 3: They got like I Ben typically calls the game on

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Speaker 3: ESPN plus Ben Wilson, so he's got an affinity for

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Speaker 3: it out there at the Orleans I only like bopped

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Speaker 3: around different venues out there because they just go wherever

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Speaker 3: they're welcome or wherever there's not another game. But it's

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Speaker 3: six teams, it's going to be a short tournament and.

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Speaker 1: There's no playing. There's gonna be no playing now that

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Speaker 1: playing game that they have.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, before you even said who you're going to lose

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Speaker 3: money on, I knew. I knew where you were going

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Speaker 3: with that with Tarleton, that's that's going to be a mess.

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Speaker 3: My mini rant is just what the heck is the

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Speaker 3: ACC schedule? Why does I know this has kind of

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Speaker 3: been a thing since preseason, but why doesn't every team

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Speaker 3: play each other? I understand we have these super conferences

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Speaker 3: and there's going to be unbalanced leagues, but in an

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Speaker 3: eighteen team league, if they're playing an eighteen team or

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Speaker 3: eighteen game schedule, every team should play every team once

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Speaker 3: and then you play a rival twice. We don't have

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Speaker 3: Miami Duke, we don't have Clemson Virginia at all this year.

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Speaker 3: That makes no sense to me. I know Florida State

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Speaker 3: isn't very good this year, but no Louisville Florida State.

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Speaker 3: There's been some classic games between those two over the years.

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Speaker 3: It's nonsensical to me. Somebody in discord them and told

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Speaker 3: me that the AEC football schedule next year, not every

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Speaker 3: team is playing the amount of the same amount of games.

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Speaker 3: I don't understand the conference at all, what they're doing.

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Speaker 3: These super conferences are too big. It's dumb. I hate it,

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Speaker 3: Like No Duke Miami is ridiculous with the coaching matchup there,

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Speaker 3: potentially Lucas coming off the staff. No Virginia Clemson, that's

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Speaker 3: my rant. I think it's utterly outrageous.

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Speaker 1: The team that cuts fries screw the most. Not the

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Speaker 1: biggest fan of them. Love me some Boopy Miller, but

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Speaker 1: that sim who's played North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Louisville,

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Speaker 1: NC State. They have Louisville again coming up. The schedule

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Speaker 1: gets a little easier now, but they've had a gauntlet

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Speaker 1: so far in the ACC. But yeah, it doesn't make

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Speaker 1: much sense. I agree, But the the ACC didn't rebound

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Speaker 1: at least this year because last year was pretty ugly.

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Speaker 1: We only had four teams get in, and you know

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Speaker 1: it's you could have what seven eight this year possible?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a lot better, So I guess maybe

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Speaker 3: whatever they're doing schedule has worked out. I think really

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Speaker 3: it's just they won non conference games, which is what

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Speaker 3: they did not do the last two years.

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Speaker 1: Yeap, Greg, you have you want to touch on a

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Speaker 1: pretty hot topic, A man who's been talked about a

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Speaker 1: lot over the past twenty four hours.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, talking heads have had their fill. You guys took

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Speaker 5: care of the nonsense from conferences. I'll take care of

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Speaker 5: the nonsense from one Jeremy fears. I'm tired of the

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Speaker 5: discussion around it. Obviously, I'm tired of his antics. But

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Speaker 5: I don't understand what's so hard about just saying he's dirty.

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Speaker 5: He is, and then letting Michigan State fans say we

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Speaker 5: have to root for him anyway, Like we don't need

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Speaker 5: apologies from Michigan State fans. We don't need to blame

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Speaker 5: this on opposing coaches and what's being said or not

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Speaker 5: being said. We don't need to blame this on Tom

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Speaker 5: Izzo and accountability. He doesn't need to be benched before

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Speaker 5: Illinois this weekend.

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Speaker 4: He's a dirty player.

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Speaker 5: There have been dirty players before, and when your team

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Speaker 5: has a dirty player, it sucks. He's also really good

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Speaker 5: and Michigan State fans are.

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Speaker 4: Allowed to root for him.

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Speaker 5: It sucks, But like, I just don't get what's so

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Speaker 5: complicated about that those things can happen at the same time.

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Speaker 5: We don't need a million talking pieces on how to

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Speaker 5: fix this problem.

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Speaker 4: He can fix the problem. He's not fixing the problem.

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Speaker 5: Maybe he will one day, maybe he'll snap his fingers

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Speaker 5: about it, But I'm just I'm very tired. It's disrupting

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Speaker 5: fun basketball games. I mean, obviously I care about the

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Speaker 5: Michigan Michigan State rivalry. I like watching Michigan State and

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Speaker 5: the toughness things they do at home. Michigan State Illinois

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Speaker 5: this weekend should be incredible if we can all just

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Speaker 5: shut up and accept that this is what it is

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Speaker 5: without making it bigger than it needs to be.

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Speaker 1: Well, there's something ironic about your first topic being something

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Speaker 1: that you're saying it shouldn't be talked about anymore. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know how to respond you don't want anyone

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Speaker 1: to talk about it, But yeah, I'll talk about Michigan's

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Speaker 1: State more in general. I mean, fears is we talked

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Speaker 1: about this last week, Like, I don't think Michigan State

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Speaker 1: has Final four national title upside because of their offense

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Speaker 1: and like they could lose to anyone that can take

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Speaker 1: away the Minnesota is probably the best transition defense in

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Speaker 1: the sport for my money. I mean when you when

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Speaker 1: you look at what they take away, I mean they're

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Speaker 1: they're transition rate allowed that year's eight percent. The next

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Speaker 1: the next lowest is Liberty at I think twelve. So

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Speaker 1: I mean they have the lowest transition rate allowed by

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Speaker 1: far in the country and I think they're like ninety

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Speaker 1: seventh percentile and efficiency when they do you take away

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Speaker 1: miss So that's why it was just a nightmare matchup

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Speaker 1: Minnesota for Michigan State. You take away Michigan State's transition

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Speaker 1: offense and you make them operate in the half court,

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Speaker 1: it gets ugly quick. So that's that's one of that

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Speaker 1: I just I don't I don't see it, And fears

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Speaker 1: is part of the problem. Looking lace hard, controversial, good player,

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Speaker 1: but is offensive. You know, arsenal is is limited for sure.

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Speaker 1: I mean just that Let that guy shoot three, catch

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Speaker 1: and shoot threes until the cows come home. Jim any

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Speaker 1: thoughts on on SPARTI. I mean, if they're we're going

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Speaker 1: we'll do buy low sell high in a in a minute,

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Speaker 1: we'll actually do that for the futures roundtable. But like,

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Speaker 1: if there was a time to buy, you know, we

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Speaker 1: want to buy in college basketball and sports in general

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Speaker 1: and investing, you want to buy low sell high. There

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Speaker 1: was a time to like buy Michigan State, right, maybe

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Speaker 1: it's now. I'm just not there because of their offense.

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Speaker 1: Do you see anything worth buying into for Sparty?

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Speaker 3: Not really. I mean I think they're probably priced fairly

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Speaker 3: or maybe even a little high at this point. Like

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Speaker 3: I don't really think they're the tenth best team in

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Speaker 3: the country. I agree that the fourth best offense. I'm

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Speaker 3: not buying a top fifty or excuse me, the fourth

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Speaker 3: best defense, buying the fourth best offense. As you said,

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Speaker 3: you take away transition and if you can defensive rebound

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Speaker 3: at all, then they can't really do anything in the

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Speaker 3: half court either. It's a lot of volleyball on the

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Speaker 3: glass for them. They're incredible on the board, so it's

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Speaker 3: much easier said than done. But they're not going to

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Speaker 3: give you a lot of spacing. Fears is just gonna

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Speaker 3: kind of get into the into the lane. Loves to

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Speaker 3: throw up some oops or some floaters and they try

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Speaker 3: to just go after and get that. I think they're

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Speaker 3: priced fine and without dambling too far into the fears

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Speaker 3: discussion to not incite too much out of Greg. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean he's dirty, and if they like opt to

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Speaker 3: suspend him for a game to try to send a message,

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Speaker 3: then I'm fine with that and let's move on and

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Speaker 3: if he does it again, then you re explore it.

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Speaker 3: That's I'm good with that.

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Speaker 1: I think they just sit him and it comes off

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Speaker 1: the bench, and like the under sixteen time out.

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Speaker 3: It gets a huge crowd eruption when he comes back in,

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Speaker 3: and it like helps spark the crowd.

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Speaker 5: If they start denim logic against Illinois back up point

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Speaker 5: guards out.

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Speaker 1: Yes, he heard, what's the status on it? I didn't

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Speaker 1: even see that.

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Speaker 5: He's They're they're not saying anything, but they were like,

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Speaker 5: this doesn't look good.

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Speaker 4: He might miss the rest of the year.

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Speaker 5: But like, I don't know if you can do this anyway,

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Speaker 5: It's all a charade to me. Just cut he's darty,

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Speaker 5: let him play whatever.

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Speaker 4: Who cares.

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Speaker 3: I don't want t logic minutes. I want him. I

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Speaker 3: want to watch.

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Speaker 1: Wojiic versus what the hottest player in college basketball historian

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Speaker 1: Woggler can't even miss from fifty feet. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: so Fears has got to play. He's got to play

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Speaker 1: like ninety five per cent of minutes, now, yeah right,

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Speaker 1: I mean he plays like eighty. But uh, that's yeah,

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Speaker 1: the fus out for the year, that's troubling. Fears can

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Speaker 1: get into some foul trouble sometimes too, I mean obviously,

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Speaker 1: I mean, so that's that would be a big loss.

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Speaker 1: I mean because you can't have I mean like tang

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Speaker 1: and four. They can't play point man that. Yeah, that

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Speaker 1: would definitely hurt their depth. All right, let's get in.

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Speaker 1: Let's buy low, sell high. You can go either direction

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Speaker 1: or both. I'll make mine quick. I'm both in the

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Speaker 1: same conference. I'm gonna go to the SEC. I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: all the way out on Alabama. I don't I don't

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Speaker 1: care what happens with Bettioco. This team. Look their offense,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the metrics, maybe it's a little

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Speaker 1: better this year than it was last year. The top

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Speaker 1: five offense. They can you know, they're gonna shoot a

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Speaker 1: ton of threes, which which does make their games high variants,

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Speaker 1: and on any given day they can play with anyone

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Speaker 1: but their defense is significantly worse than last year, and

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Speaker 1: they are not anywhere in the realm of being of

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Speaker 1: having the defense that's capable of making a deep running

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Speaker 1: winning the national title. Could they get the lead eight

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Speaker 1: final fourth if they're making the threes and the and

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Speaker 1: it breaks right, Sure, but I don't think that they

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Speaker 1: can beat these elite teams. And I think the last

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Speaker 1: two games were very telling. All that back and forth

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Speaker 1: with Florida, and look, you lose at Florida, you're a

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Speaker 1: sizeable under No, that's fine, but to just get destroyed

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Speaker 1: and it be uncompetitive was telling. And then BEMA last

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Speaker 1: year and BEMA in the spot over the past couple

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Speaker 1: of years against A and M. They bury them all right.

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Speaker 1: They win that game by double digits, and the fact

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Speaker 1: that they had to barely hold on and you know,

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Speaker 1: gave up ninety seven and look, credit A and M.

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Speaker 1: A and M is way better than I thought they'd be.

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Speaker 1: Bucky Ball is translating way quicker with that cast of

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Speaker 1: characters than I thought it would be. That team is feisty,

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Speaker 1: that team fights, and if that team is a seven

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Speaker 1: or eight seed in like you're in you're a one

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Speaker 1: or two, that's just that's the team you don't want

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Speaker 1: to play because of their style. That is a team

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Speaker 1: you don't want to see in your second game if

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Speaker 1: you're a top one or two seed. So I got

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Speaker 1: to give a lot of credit to Bucky, But I'm

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Speaker 1: all the way out on Alabama and I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: starting to buy into a team that I was out on,

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Speaker 1: and that's Tennessee. And that's just because of the development

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Speaker 1: and progression of Nate event. I mean, this is a

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Speaker 1: guy who looked timid, especially when he went up against

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Speaker 1: like elite competition, a bit soft, a bit you know,

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Speaker 1: just I don't know if I really belong here. Yet

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Speaker 1: he's and it's been a rocket ship. Watching his development

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Speaker 1: and his confidence and just his ability to get his

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Speaker 1: own shot and his offense in the half court raises

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Speaker 1: the ceiling for this Tennessee team significantly. It's not as

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Speaker 1: elite of the defense as Barnes has had in the past,

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Speaker 1: but it's still very good. They still can just abuse

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Speaker 1: teams on the offensive class their depth, their interior depth

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Speaker 1: is building and getting more confidence. So Tennessee is a

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Speaker 1: team that I think is a lot more dangerous than

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Speaker 1: I actually thought. A couple of weeks ago, Jim will

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Speaker 1: go to you any quick thoughts on either one of

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Speaker 1: those teams.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, selling Deba. I pitched that to be the final

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Speaker 3: four or part of our futures portfolio last week, and

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Speaker 3: I wasn't totally shocked by what happened against Florida, but

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Speaker 3: I was really disappointed in the Texas A and M game.

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Speaker 3: I'm with you that that is a game that passed.

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Speaker 3: Alabama teams just light the world on fire. And they

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Speaker 3: made sixteen threes, but they had to take forty eight

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Speaker 3: to make them, and they only forced six turnovers against

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Speaker 3: A and M. They don't do that at all, bottom

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Speaker 3: five in the country in turnover rate. Like they defend

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Speaker 3: like Creighton with Kalkbrenner, except they don't rebound like Creighton

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Speaker 3: with Kalkbrenner. They don't block shots, they don't take away

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Speaker 3: twos quite.

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Speaker 1: As well, it's now all the time.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a broken defense in a lot of different ways.

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Speaker 3: And the offense, well good, they don't have the high

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Speaker 3: floor like in the past, Oats kind of emphasized the

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Speaker 3: offensive glass and this team doesn't do it. So it's

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Speaker 3: just total reliance on jump shooting. And yeah, for that reason,

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Speaker 3: I think they probably are much more prone to an

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Speaker 3: upset than typical Alabama teams.

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Speaker 1: I'll say to your I'll say, getting your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: tennessee for later, little teaser there, but I'll go I'll

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Speaker 1: come back to you for buy Los. I'll go to

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Speaker 1: Greg and Greg feel free to shar any thoughts and

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Speaker 1: neither one of those teams. And who are you looking

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Speaker 1: to buy loo or so high on? Well?

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Speaker 5: I agree with your praise for Amen. I was very

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Speaker 5: out on him earlier in the season and he I mean,

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Speaker 5: we probably shouldn't be surprised. You look at the rest

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Speaker 5: of this freshman class. Anybody rated in the general realm

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Speaker 5: where he's rated is phenomenal right now. But I think

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Speaker 5: he's getting more comfortable shouldering the burden night to night,

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Speaker 5: which maybe is a surprise sometimes you see the freshman

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Speaker 5: wall in early February, but they just put so much

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Speaker 5: on him in Gillespie every single night, and I feel

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Speaker 5: like it was a little bit of a shock to

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Speaker 5: the system by the end of non conference play that

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Speaker 5: that was a night in, night out thing for him.

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Speaker 5: You can see that he's sort of taken ownership of

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Speaker 5: that responsibility.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's a good shout.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna stay in the big ten, of course for

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Speaker 5: a buy low on Washington, who I think is about

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Speaker 5: as low as I'll ever look to buy low on.

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Speaker 5: Right now, they're twelve and eleven overall, four and eight.

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Speaker 4: In conference play.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they need to go how many games they

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Speaker 5: have left eight, seven and one down the stretch to

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Speaker 5: like really feel like they've got a shot to make

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Speaker 5: the NCAA tournament.

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Speaker 4: But the thing is, I think they can.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they had six of their first twelve games

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Speaker 5: in conference play came against top fifteen teams in the country.

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Speaker 5: Like they just had the absolute front loaded schedule, the

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Speaker 5: inverse of all these great teams that now have to

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Speaker 5: play each other down the stretch. They have UCLA at

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Speaker 5: UCLA this Saturday, and then a bunch of easy home games,

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Speaker 5: road games at Maryland and Rutgers and Oregon. Like that's

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Speaker 5: the schedule and they don't play a top thirty team.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I watched that Iowa.

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Speaker 5: Game and its entirety last night, full disclosure, I was

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Speaker 5: on Washington money line, and they got starts in the

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Speaker 5: second half and starts.

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Speaker 4: This phenomenal.

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Speaker 5: McCollum's been great that team is clearly separating as one

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Speaker 5: of the upper echelon teams in the Big Ten. Washington

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Speaker 5: hasn't yet, but I still like the I think with

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Speaker 5: all Gonna, Savage back and Steinbach, I think he can

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Speaker 5: kind of dominate the very bottom of the barrel in

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Speaker 5: this league that really hasn't been put on a tea

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Speaker 5: for them. I just won't be surprised. Ken Palm has

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Speaker 5: them projected as winning seven of their final eight. I

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Speaker 5: think that's extremely doable when you look at the schedule,

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Speaker 5: and I think almost so much revolving do our personnel wise.

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Speaker 5: Early it's like we don't know who our guards are.

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Speaker 4: Now we've figured out who we have.

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Speaker 5: Zoom Diallo had twelve assists against Iowa.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a good BILO candidate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I'll be looking at them depending on

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Speaker 1: the number at UCLA. I think that Washington can just

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Speaker 1: dominate the offensive glass there, which is really going to

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Speaker 1: raise their floor and keep them in that game. I

386
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Speaker 1: think ULI still have a little bit of three point

387
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Speaker 1: two way three point regression coming its way too, But

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Speaker 1: I yeah, I like the Huskies there, and they're they're

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Speaker 1: certainly live to make the tournament with this remaining schedule, Jim,

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Speaker 1: what do you got?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to say, if you're you're the

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Speaker 3: last East Coast road trip they have to do. As

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Speaker 3: Greg said, is Maryland and Rutgers, Like there are no

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Speaker 3: more doable road games in that conference than those two,

395
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Speaker 3: So that that sets up well for them. I'm selling

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Speaker 3: George Mason unfortunately, and they kind of started it Wednesday

397
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Speaker 3: night they lost at home to Do Cane and it's been.

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Speaker 1: It was down multiple so it was down multiple starters.

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Speaker 1: They had like they had like one guy coming off

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Speaker 1: the bench.

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Speaker 3: Yep, and Mason got allence bocked back and he's he's

402
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Speaker 3: been back and just didn't quite push them over the top.

403
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Speaker 3: And they've kind of been playing with fire. It's been

404
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Speaker 3: close games against a lot of teams, teams that are

405
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Speaker 3: worse than them. And one of my other pod co hosts,

406
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Speaker 3: Will Warren, talked about how teams don't make threes in

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Speaker 3: the final eight minutes against them. Teams were shooting like

408
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Speaker 3: twelve percent from three in the final eight eight minutes.

409
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Speaker 3: It was a lot of good fortune with regression potentially coming,

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Speaker 3: and I think we're starting to see it. Their schedule

411
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Speaker 3: is tough. Saint Joe's is playing a lot better right

412
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Speaker 3: now than road games at Richmond, g W. Dayton coming

413
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Speaker 3: to town, than at Saint Joe's. Sherborn Adventures kind of

414
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Speaker 3: having some problems, but you close the year at VCU

415
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Speaker 3: home to Saint Louis like this team was in the

416
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Speaker 3: maybe mix for an at large and was a game

417
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Speaker 3: behind Slough and chasing them for the title. I don't

418
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Speaker 3: think they're gonna end up putting much of a fight

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Speaker 3: against Slough in the A ten for the conference title. Now,

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Speaker 3: the end of the season game is gonna be a

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Speaker 3: great atmosphere shout out to Fairfax. They're gonna load that

422
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Speaker 3: place up for SLEU coming to town. But I think

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Speaker 3: in the weeks leading up to it, we see George

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Speaker 3: Mason kind of drift back to the A ten pack

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Speaker 3: a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I would agree. I don't think they're making the tournament.

427
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Speaker 1: They've been so so lucky in so many close games.

428
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Speaker 1: Bonnie's is like the opposite. I've been betting Bonni's a

429
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Speaker 1: bunch lately. They keep losing like every every close game.

430
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Speaker 1: I don't know if part of it is just they

431
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Speaker 1: wear down, which could be part of it, because again

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Speaker 1: they don't have any bench and they but I mean,

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Speaker 1: I love Frank, Mitchell, Simmons and Bowen. Charles has been

434
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 1: a pleasant surprise, but they just don't have any depth

435
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: at all. Uh, That's that's their problem. But they they've

436
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: been extremely unlucky, I mean all season long. But yeah,

437
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: don't hate the look. All right, let's get to the

438
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: futures round table. Let's see, so so far we have

439
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: two or two or three.

440
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 3: So far we've got Saint Louis. It's at the bottom.

441
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 3: I think of the outline, Saint Louis, and we have

442
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 3: six to one.

443
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 1: Last week Purdue Final four, six to one, Saint Louis

444
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: Final four, eighty to one. Don't mind either one of

445
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: those byes we have. I have no regret you guys

446
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: have any regret on either one.

447
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 3: I'm glad we took Purdue in that BAMLA last week.

448
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 3: You guys made correct votes.

449
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 1: So all right, I have mine's complicated, so i'll go last.

450
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make you guys choose one of two because

451
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: I want to make cases for two, and then we'll vote. Jim,

452
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: I think you made a case for this team already,

453
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 1: or maybe this is right in your take.

454
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 5: I did I did Virginia a couple of weeks ago.

455
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 3: But Jim, for me, I'm gonna run it back. You know.

456
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 3: The one like not issue with this is but it's

457
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: not some perfect time to buy. It's not before they

458
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 3: have a couple of high leverage games where they could

459
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 3: swing up. But at some point I feel like people

460
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 3: got to wake up to the price. And as Greg

461
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 3: kind of said two weeks ago, the ceiling's really high.

462
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 3: Since January first, they're ninth in the country per bart Torvik.

463
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: They're an awesove offensive rebounding team. They've been really good

464
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: away from home. Some of their best wins are on

465
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 3: the road. They have size, shot blocking and a ton

466
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: of shooting. It's they don't have like the Star the

467
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,880
Speaker 3: way I hesitate to do this compare them a little

468
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 3: bit to Illinois, but it's a half court execution based

469
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 3: team with a ton of size, a ton of shooting,

470
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 3: great spacing, so there's always open lanes for cutting, for driving.

471
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,719
Speaker 3: They get some easy buckets that way, and it's just

472
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 3: hard to score on them. They're not going to force

473
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 3: a ton of turnovers, but they force you into jumpers

474
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: because they're size at the rim and they're line for

475
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 3: like a four seed right now, and it's twenty to

476
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 3: one to make the final four. They're like analytically equal

477
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: with Gonzaga, who's going to get a four seed or

478
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 3: three seed two and gonzagas plus nine and fifty. Like,

479
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 3: I don't see why the price is so egregiously different

480
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 3: from a team like that, team like Alabama, They're going

481
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 3: to get a better seed then and have a much

482
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: better price. I don't know if there's just a little

483
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 3: bit of hesitance because they started the season so low,

484
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 3: but man, every year an ACC team makes a run,

485
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: and I think Virginia is fully capable of doing it.

486
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was a decent price. I mean

487
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: Torvick ten for final four percentage on Torvik it's not bad.

488
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: So it's it's not bad at all at twenty to one. Yeah,

489
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: I mean your point about road games and then their

490
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: style being able to travel and play on neutral courts

491
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 1: on the road because of their interior day and because

492
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: of their redounding ability on both ends, like that plays anywhere.

493
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, I definitely don't hate the look. Greg. Before

494
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: I get yours, we met, you mentioned you compared. You

495
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: mentioned the Illinois comparison in a way, I know you're

496
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: you're extremely close into Big Ten. What are your thoughts

497
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: on Illinois and what's gonna happen, Like what has happened

498
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:22,199
Speaker 1: with Boswell out? And like with him without Boswell and

499
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,239
Speaker 1: what do you do when he comes back? And like

500
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: what it's a that's a very odd situation because they

501
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: didn't turned into a rocket ship without him. I mean,

502
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: I think per Evan me if you look, I mean,

503
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: Boswell was their second highest rated offensive player, you know,

504
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: and he obviously has a lot of skills on the

505
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: defensive end, but is like, how do you think about

506
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 1: that whole Illinois thing with with him without Boswell?

507
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 4: Great question.

508
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 5: So I actually think the rocket ship took off before

509
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 5: Boswell got hurt. I think it was when they figured

510
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 5: out they need to slow tempo down dramatically, which is

511
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 5: something Brad under what teams haven't done really in three

512
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 5: or four years. And it started right at the end

513
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 5: of the non conference and it worked, and then they

514
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 5: made it maybe three or four.

515
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 4: Games in the conference. Player forget when Kylon got hurt.

516
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 5: It's definitely gotten more shooting on the floor, and Davis

517
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 5: analytically is in all of their best lineups. According to

518
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,199
Speaker 5: every possible line up data service you can find. But

519
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 5: the thing is, I think as long as they don't

520
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 5: go heavy on Stoyakovich Boswell lineups together, they'll navigate this.

521
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 4: And if you think about it.

522
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 5: Underwood has been experienced with dealing with this with when

523
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 5: Terren Shannon returned a couple of years ago, when they

524
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 5: figured out Marcus Damask booty ball in the half court.

525
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 5: I think it's easier with Woggler. If anything, Boz is

526
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 5: just going to help their perimeter defense. I'm not all

527
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 5: that worried about it, but I would like him sooner

528
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: rather than later to return so we can get a

529
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 5: couple games under their belt before March.

530
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: I also mentioned I think one of the biggest difference

531
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: with this Illinois team might be their defense. I mean,

532
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: so you before you think about Illinois as like the

533
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: purest of drops, and I mean you just look at there,

534
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 1: and then one of the things that you're gonna get

535
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: with drop coverage is you're going to the three point

536
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: rate is going to be really low, right, and you're

537
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 1: gonna take away the three You're gonna take away the

538
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: premiter shooters. If you go back to twenty twenty, this

539
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: Illinois team under Underwa thirty ninth at three point, the

540
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: temph rate allowed thirty eighth, the next year eighth, sixteenth, seventh, third,

541
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 1: this year two hundred and thirty ninth. They have changed

542
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: their defense schematically. They're mixing in some zone, They're not

543
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: as strict of drop, They're willing to give up threes here,

544
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: and they're sort of switching things up. And I think

545
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: their defense as a result, has a higher ceiling because

546
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: it's not as predictable, and I think that's extremely helpful

547
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 1: in a tournament setting when you're gonna go up against,

548
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: you know, elite guards, and so I think that they're

549
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: obviously their offense, isn't it the highest as of right now,

550
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: the highest rated offense in ken pomer history?

551
00:27:59,359 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 4: Yep?

552
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: But I think their defense doesn't get talked about enough

553
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: and some of the changes they've made structurally, Jim, do

554
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: any thoughts on Illinois Before we get to Greg's pick.

555
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: They hired I forget his name, the assistant from Cold

556
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 3: Dam Crocker. There it is, thank you. I knew Greg

557
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 3: would be all over it, but yeah, he was brought in.

558
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 3: Like Colgates, whole defense was very scouting report based, like

559
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 3: game the game. They play a little bit differently, and

560
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 3: obviously this team is still set up with the drop structure,

561
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 3: but I think being more responsive to the other team

562
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 3: and not just coming out with here's what we do,

563
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 3: good luck against it, that has helped quite a bit.

564
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 3: So I think that was a really smart hire by Underwood,

565
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 3: and I think he's made a lot of really good

566
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 3: staff hires over his career. There.

567
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so we got uva final four? Greg,

568
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: what do you got?

569
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 4: All right?

570
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 5: I'm kicking myself because I typed up a write up

571
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 5: on this team for last week's episode.

572
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 4: It was sixty to one.

573
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 5: I looked at the schedule and I said they got

574
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 5: a road game coming that I'm worried about two of

575
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 5: them actually, because they had the weekend game at Georgia,

576
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 5: and I talked myself out of it. I'm kicking myself

577
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 5: that I talk myself out of it. They're down to

578
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 5: forty to one. It's Texas A and M. I think

579
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 5: the longer we wait, the more this drops. That's my

580
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 5: expectation at this point. You guys gave them a little

581
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 5: bit of love. I know we're all collectively out on Bama,

582
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 5: and I agree, but this a and M team is

583
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 5: just really impressive all around. To me, there's not really

584
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,479
Speaker 5: a major red flag on the profile on either end

585
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 5: of the court. They're top forty in both offense and defense.

586
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 5: They take more threes and they give up. They shoot

587
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 5: it well from everywhere. They're decent enough on the boards.

588
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 5: Like I just kind of buy the entire system with

589
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 5: a little bit upgraded talent in Bucky ball this year,

590
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 5: I think you look at what they've done on the road.

591
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 4: It's impressed me.

592
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 5: Road wins at Auburn, at Georgia, took Tennessee to double overtime,

593
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 5: and obviously almost win the Bama game.

594
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 4: Put ninety seven on them.

595
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 5: I just think this team travels and you look at

596
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 5: where they're priced. This is the important part of why

597
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 5: I'm nominating them. They're forty to one on DraftKings right now.

598
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:02,719
Speaker 5: One one is the same as Clemson, as UCLA.

599
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 4: It's double the odds.

600
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 5: That you can get for Saint John's in Kentucky right now. Meanwhile,

601
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 5: I'll give you a torfic sample since we kind of

602
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 5: did the same for Virginia. If you go back over

603
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 5: the last twelve games for Texas, A and M, they're

604
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 5: fourteenth nationally going back to the middle of December ten

605
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 5: and two in that span, ahead of Virginia in Tennessee

606
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 5: in Michigan state. So I just think this is the

607
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 5: best price you can get. Like I said, I'm kicking myself.

608
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 5: I didn't nominate it a week ago. But I think

609
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 5: we'll look up in a week or two and see

610
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 5: them eighteen to twenty to one.

611
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 3: If they be coward to this weekend, man, that'd be

612
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: the right timing you gotta get in the yeah time.

613
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: Because they're not gonna get hurt too much from losing

614
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 1: that game, but they'll definitely raise some more eyebrows if

615
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: they win that game. All right, I got two because

616
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: I want to tout both of these because I'm going

617
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: to bet them myself. I want you guys to choose

618
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 1: which one to put in their conference futures. So number

619
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: one I'm trying. I'm going to try to do this

620
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: without getting too complicated. Number one is Illinois to win

621
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: the Big ten plus one twenty out there. I think

622
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: they should be favored. Here's the thing Illinois is, I

623
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: mean is we just talked about their defense. Their offensive

624
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: bogglers incredible. As of right now, the standings Illinois is tied.

625
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: They have one game. Michigan's going to beat Penn State.

626
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: I assume they're up twenty right now. I don't know,

627
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: so they're going to be tied at eleven and one each.

628
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: So if Illinois beats Michigan State this weekend, then I

629
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: think they're in phenomenal position. But let's say they drop

630
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: that game and so they be one game behind Michigan.

631
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: They still host Michigan and they split with Nebraska. They

632
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: one at Purdue. That is super important because every tiebreaker

633
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: will go if they beat Michigan at home. This is

634
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: basically a bet on them beating Michigan home, or if

635
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: they beat win at Michigan State, they can probably afford

636
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: to lose that Michigan game because Michigan's schedule, Michigan still

637
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: goes to Purdue, they go to Iowa, you know, they

638
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: have their rematch with Michigan State. They're at Ohio State.

639
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 1: Like their schedule is significantly more difficult than Illinois, who

640
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: is at Michigan State. Then it's home against Wisconsin, home

641
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: against Indiana. They make the West coast trip to USC

642
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: and UCLA. Then it's they get Michigan at home. Then

643
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: they close the season with Oregon and Maryland. I mean,

644
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: their schedule is really easy. Then you might say, Okay,

645
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: do you have to worry about Nebraska or Purdue. Maybe,

646
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 1: but I mean Nebraskan Purdue number one, they play each other,

647
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: they're gonna get a lost there. And like the round

648
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: robin records, if they beat Michigan, they're gonna have the

649
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: head to head record. Like, there are so many different

650
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: ways that Illinois can win the regular season, and I

651
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 1: looked at all the tie breakers, So I think getting

652
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: this a head of that Michigan State because they win

653
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: the Michigan State game, you look at the schedules, they're

654
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: going to be in extremely, extremely an extremely good spot

655
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: to win the Big Ten. So that's my first suggestion.

656
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: My other really funny I was looking at this on

657
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: FanDuel and it got and I was going to bet it,

658
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: and it was like at four in the morning, and

659
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: it got hit and it went down fifty cents. I

660
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: don't know who else in the world it was. I

661
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: was like, who else could be looking at this right now?

662
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 1: So they got this a little bit worse price, but

663
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 1: Saint John's to win the Big East plus three point

664
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: fifty ish here's the case. If they host Yukon, so

665
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: you want you want to get this before Yukon game

666
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: on Friday, coin flip game. They swept Yukon last year,

667
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: they sweep Yukon this year. They're winning the Beast the

668
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: biggest regular season, which is possible. But why I like

669
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: this at this price is because if they split with Yukon,

670
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 1: the difference in their remaining schedules is Saint John's hosts Villanova,

671
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: Yukon goes to Villanova, and if Yukon loses that game

672
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: and Saint John's wins that game at home, Villanova's going

673
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 1: to finish third in the Big East. Saint John's would

674
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 1: have the tiebreaker over Yukon. So I think where they

675
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: got Nova and they already beat Nova on the road,

676
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 1: I think gives them a little bit of an a manage.

677
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: Illinois is probably my favorite, but I wanted to throw

678
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: that one out there to time wise. Jim, I'll ask

679
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,439
Speaker 1: you which do you prefer those two?

680
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 3: I think I prefer Illinois. Saint John's offense is concerning

681
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 3: to me, but they they have it all in front

682
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 3: of them with both Yukon games still to play, and

683
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, they want at Villanova. They got the

684
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 3: schedule benefit of playing that at the seventy six Ers Arena,

685
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 3: whereas Yukon has to go to Finnerin and actually play

686
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: on campus. So I think that's a little tougher for

687
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 3: the Huskies. Make sense to me there, But the way

688
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 3: you set up the Illinois one, with the schedule and

689
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: the tie breakers, I'm buying it pretty hard. And that

690
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 3: team is playing so well right now.

691
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: Yep, Greg, you great Illinois over Saint John's.

692
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 5: I think Illinois is playing as good as anybody, maybe

693
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 5: even including Arizona in the country. I think my only

694
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 5: question with this bet right now, if they beat Michigan State,

695
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 5: what do we think happens.

696
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 4: To that price?

697
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: I mean I'll be like minus one.

698
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 4: You think it jumps?

699
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: Yes, a lot, yeah, because I mean that's a coin

700
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 1: flip game. And with the schedules, I mean I think

701
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: they'd be like minus one twenty minus one thirty.

702
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 3: I'll issue a quick correction. Can you kind of does

703
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 3: play at the seventy six Ors Arena when they go

704
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 3: to Nova two? So for any listeners screaming at us,

705
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:48,720
Speaker 3: I got you there.

706
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 4: Do you you said you still like the bet? If

707
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 4: they lose to Michigan State.

708
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 5: I think I'd like it more if they lose to

709
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 5: Michigan State and that drops like two to one or more.

710
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't drop the two to one, but with

711
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: a loss plus one, I mean maybe can get like

712
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: plus one thirty thirty plus one, we can get plus

713
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: one twenty. Now, I mean I think that they should

714
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: be favored right now. But uh, I mean you like Illino,

715
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: you like Illinois this weekend, so you should be.

716
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 5: Look, I'm going to advocate for petting Illinois in just

717
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 5: a moment.

718
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 4: I guess my feel which you guys.

719
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: Well, first you got to just choose one of the two.

720
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 1: Then then we'll vote. Then you can chare you Let's

721
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:31,879
Speaker 1: do Illinois? Okay?

722
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 3: All right?

723
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 1: So one for Virginia, two for Texas A and M

724
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: three for Illinois to win the big ten three to one. Wow, Okay, Virginia.

725
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: Jim wins. And and this is we're we're giving love

726
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: to Greg tics he brought this up Originally.

727
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 4: I'm never gonna win a futures fronto.

728
00:36:55,320 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 1: We only really after someone else, is is it? It's

729
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 1: like this has got to be like a Rinning joke thing. Now,

730
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: when next time I like really really like one of Greg's.

731
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: I'm just going to vote for Jim's and then bring

732
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 1: it myself the next week.

733
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:13,959
Speaker 3: All right, So.

734
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 1: Updated, we have three final four features, Saint Louis eighty

735
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: to one, Produce six to one, and now Virginia twenty

736
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 1: to one. I like our portfolio. All right, let's get

737
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 1: to the weekend. Go a little rapid fire here. Wow.

738
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: Before we get to some of our best bets, I

739
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: do want to quickly pass along an incredible offer going

740
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,719
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741
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,080
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742
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,680
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743
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,200
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744
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,440
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745
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: our experts. You want to get that notification before line

746
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: start to move, especially important with props with the Super

747
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,360
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748
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,440
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749
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,480
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750
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752
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: slash Pro. All right, let's go around the horn and

753
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 1: talk Friday if you really would like something Friday, but

754
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: Saturday Sunday slates all in play. I gotta start with

755
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I always got to start with

756
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: an ugly one. That's my m all right, let's go.

757
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 1: Let's go with Now, there's both of these teams are

758
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: playing right now or tonight's I don't that could change

759
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 1: the formula's injuries. But Rider who's that's oh god, oh

760
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 1: god against Merrimac and the best team in the conference.

761
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: I mean, this Rider team like one of the least

762
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 1: experienced teams in the country. They're playing better of late.

763
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: But I like this matchup against Merrimack because what can

764
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: Ryder do. Ryder can do one thing very well, and

765
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 1: that's offensive rebound and against that Merrimack zone that's going

766
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: to go a long way and keeping him in this game.

767
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:37,240
Speaker 1: Go back to the first meeting at Merrimack. Rider lost

768
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: by two. They had forty They out rebounded Merrinmack forty

769
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 1: one to eighteen in the game. They can get enough

770
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds here. It's about time to sell high on

771
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 1: this Merrimack team. By the way. I mean, like, no one.

772
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: I get that their their zone is very good. I

773
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: love Joe Gallo, but this is this is just too

774
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: good of a matchup in a game that's probably going

775
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: to be ugly. It's going to be very slow. Limited possessions,

776
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds will keep Rider in this. I don't know.

777
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,439
Speaker 1: Can we get can we get ten? I would love ten,

778
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: probably get It'll probably be like eight and a half.

779
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: But Rider's my first look. It's probably one of the

780
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: ugliest games on the board.

781
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: But you have to start with a bottom fifteen team

782
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 3: of the country. That's it's like you're trying to out

783
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 3: ugly yourself. It's incredible.

784
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 1: I had a Circle, Had a Circle. It is my

785
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: ugliest game on here. The other other ugliest one I

786
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: have is Lamar, who I think doesn't match up terribly

787
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: with Steven Epple. I know Steve and have Austin's been

788
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: just a monster at home. But we might get a

789
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: good price on Lamar on the road. But uh, Greg,

790
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 1: what do you got? I know that you're not going

791
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: to go down to the bottom fifteen. I can always

792
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 1: count on you for that.

793
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, if you need the sexy games, I'm here

794
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 4: for it. I'll go back to your ALIGNI stock.

795
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 5: I do think they get a statement win at the

796
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 5: Breslin Center.

797
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 4: Michigan State's entire thing for thirty years.

798
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 5: Defend rebound run Okay, let's go through those boxes. Defend

799
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 5: the number one offense in Ken Palm history. Easier said

800
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 5: than done. Rebound Illinois is a lead on both ends

801
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 5: on the boards. I think they're going to be up

802
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,720
Speaker 5: for that challenge against Carson Cooper, who's really been struggling

803
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 5: in the last two games. Run good luck against an

804
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 5: Illinois team that has been limiting possessions so well for

805
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 5: two months now. I think they're going to do a

806
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 5: great job against Michigan State's transition attack.

807
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: Think about that half court offense.

808
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 5: It really comes down to can they get to the

809
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 5: free throw line with all the fears, drama and him

810
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 5: under a microscope right now against the number one team

811
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 5: at avoiding fouls defensively in the country. I just think

812
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 5: this is a nightmare matchup and a statement game for

813
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 5: Keaton Woggler and the Ali NI.

814
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: My only worry, I mean, obviously the spot is all

815
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:48,839
Speaker 1: you know. You have. Illinois just one at nebrask get

816
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 1: beatn Northwestern by one hundred and fifty when Northwestern I

817
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 1: don't know where they get two to thirty from three.

818
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 1: I think Illinois hit thirteen threes in the first half,

819
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 1: quitting a half court buzzer beater, like you were getting

820
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 1: to the peak of Illinois. Michigan State bottoming out like

821
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: from a Bilow cell high perspective, and Illinois been shooting

822
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: the three really well. The one weakness on Illinois that

823
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,760
Speaker 1: I can point to is their efficiency in transition defense.

824
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: I think they're in like the twenty fifth percentile. Now.

825
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: If they're making every three and scoring every possession, it

826
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. But like if they have an off night,

827
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: like an overdue off night from three, Michigan State does

828
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 1: have a path to some runouts here and then to

829
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: get the crowd into it. That's like the only war

830
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: on Illinois is like if you can actually get in transition,

831
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 1: the thing is the problem is you have to stop

832
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 1: them from scoring to get out in transition, which doesn't

833
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 1: happen often. Jim, I'll let you break the tie there

834
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: spot versus the toward hot team. I don't know.

835
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 3: What'ssick, yeah, something like one or pick either way. I

836
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 3: would think I'll ride with big ten men, I'll go

837
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 3: with Illinois.

838
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 1: What do you got? What else? What do you ask? Well,

839
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 1: here's your you can start with this and the sec

840
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: that this was going to be one of my favorites.

841
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: So I completely agree with you here.

842
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I swiped it from you. You hinted it talking about

843
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 3: Tennessee earlier. I'll go ahead and do that. I was

844
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 3: chopping it up with my buddy, a listener to BBOC Alk,

845
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 3: so I gotta give him a shout out. But it's

846
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,959
Speaker 3: a little very similarly to the angle I had last

847
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 3: week with Illinois road revenge at Nebraska. I'm going to

848
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 3: do that with Tennessee. They lost at home to Kentucky

849
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 3: in a game that they controlled the entire way. We're

850
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,879
Speaker 3: up double digits most of the first half, still up

851
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 3: most of the second half until a feverish Kentucky run late.

852
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 3: They grabbed over fifty percent of their misses, which I

853
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 3: think they're going to do again now. They let Kentucky

854
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 3: get after it on the offensive glass. Two. That's a

855
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 3: little bit concerning, But we talked about the event. Ascension

856
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 3: Gillespie I think has a huge game against a team

857
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 3: that doesn't really have a great point guard. They got

858
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 3: some length in the back court, but I think Gillespie

859
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: kind of has his way, just as he did in

860
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 3: the first matchup when he had twenty four points eight assists.

861
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 3: I just think they're better and like that spot. I

862
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 3: always love of road revenge. They blew the game at

863
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 3: home against the team that they're better than, and now

864
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 3: they go in the road. It's gonna be right around

865
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 3: pick minus one again, just like the Illinois game we discussed.

866
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 3: I'll take the balls there on the road. I love

867
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: that spot.

868
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 1: I yeah, I completely agree. And one of the one

869
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: of the wards for Tennessee is that they will turn

870
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: it over a bunch like that. But Kentucky's defense doesn't

871
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 1: pressure you, and they're not gonna turn you over, so

872
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 1: they can't. They're not really gonna fully exploit that. One

873
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: thought is do you like does it? Does it move

874
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 1: the needle at all for you? If Okpara plays or doesn't.

875
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: I mean some of the guys that have some of

876
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 1: their younger like I've been impressed with Dwayne Brown's minutes

877
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: and the uptick in his usage. Does it does it

878
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 1: matter to you if Okpara plays or not.

879
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 3: I think I'd like him in there, But I'm still

880
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,479
Speaker 3: betting it if he's out. I mean, Brown got hype

881
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 3: in the preseason, like out of their their camp. It

882
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: wasn't quite Keaton Woggler hype, but they're like, oh, this

883
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 3: is an underrated freshman who's going to contribute. And when

884
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 3: Kate Phillips went down, he ascended in to a bigger role.

885
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 3: They're getting a little more out of Estrella and then

886
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 3: Jalen Carey has just been a complete animal, like perfect

887
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: fit for their scheme, and I think I'm okay with

888
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 3: him getting more minutes if if that's what it comes

889
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 3: down to, Yeah.

890
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 1: Should dominate the offensive glass here. Uh, I'm gonna go.

891
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: Let's I'm gonna look for another team to sell high on.

892
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: I've been impressed with them lately, but I think we

893
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: might get a decent price to fade them here. I'm

894
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: gonna go to the ACC potentially look to fade NC

895
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: State as a maybe a double digit favorite against VA Tech.

896
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: You know, they're coming off that win against SMU where

897
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: they went they were quite hot in the second half

898
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: against a bad SMU defense. But I mean, you look

899
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 1: their last five, their last five wins, they'd be Clemson

900
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:48,879
Speaker 1: in overtime they lost at home to Georgia Tech theyd

901
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 1: be Pit Syracuse Wake SMU. I think, and look, they're

902
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 1: shooting like I don't know over that stretch, like forty

903
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: five percent from three. Their defense still leaves a lot

904
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 1: to be desired in my opinion, and in this particular matchup,

905
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 1: like NC State wants their their best asset on their

906
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:11,399
Speaker 1: defense is they turn you over. They can turn you over.

907
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: VA Tech doesn't turn the ball over. Uh. I mean

908
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,240
Speaker 1: VA Tech's defense, they can get crushed on the offensive glass,

909
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: not a strength of NC State. So I don't think

910
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: this is a terrible matchup for VO Tech. I think

911
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: they can keep this within single digits. So I'll be

912
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,479
Speaker 1: looking at the Hokies in a decent matchup, decent cell

913
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 1: cell high spot. I mean they played Duke really tough.

914
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: I mean that was that was another meltdown. I don't

915
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,840
Speaker 1: know how that game ended. I bought that line went up.

916
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:39,959
Speaker 1: I bought VA Tech. We heard about some illnesses with Duke.

917
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: It was like a six point game with like four

918
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 1: to go and they just didn't score. Again the boot missed.

919
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 1: Whenever you everyone will feel the pain of this. Whenever

920
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,720
Speaker 1: you have an underdog that is like in the number.

921
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 1: The whole second half, the worst thing that can ever happen.

922
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: Say you have like I'd plus twelve and a half

923
00:46:56,000 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: plus third team with va Tech. It's there's three to go,

924
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 1: the favorite is up eight. They're at the line for

925
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: a one and one, miss it, they get the offensive rebound.

926
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,280
Speaker 1: You I could bet my network that there's a three coming,

927
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 1: and then Boozer hits a three and it is the worst.

928
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 1: The other worst swing is when you miss a front

929
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 1: and you know that there's gonna be a trends like

930
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: a transition three. The one in one swings are just

931
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: absolutely vicious. But yeah, I'll be looking at the Hokies

932
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: catching a fat number. Also, a week off from that

933
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 1: Duke game, NC State went down one a thriller against SMU,

934
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 1: So extra time to prepare for a good schematic coaching,

935
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,760
Speaker 1: Mike Young. So I like that spot for vautech Greg,

936
00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 1: what else you got?

937
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 5: I'm one of the Hoosiers back home from a West

938
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,919
Speaker 5: Coast trip here obviously an impressive two out of three

939
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 5: stretch with purduing UCLA victories. That double overtime game against UCLA,

940
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 5: I just think they took their legs out. They end

941
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 5: up succumbing to fatigue and losing to Muss's Trojans. Now

942
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 5: they're back in the Assembly Hall against the Wisconsin team

943
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 5: that doesn't really defend at all, that has played three

944
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 5: straight games at the Cole Center, that has survived a

945
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,879
Speaker 5: couple straight where they've fallen behind double digits, down ten

946
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 5: early to Ohio State, getting blitzed at home to Minnesota

947
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,319
Speaker 5: before a Furies come back in the second half. I

948
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 5: think if their slow starts continue against Indiana, this could

949
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 5: be just to bury them spot. We have seen Wisconsin

950
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 5: get blown out in a couple different games early in

951
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 5: the season. That BYU game sticks out in my memory.

952
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 5: In Nebraska was a thirty point loss as well. I

953
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 5: think it's a game that totally comes down to offensive execution.

954
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 5: If you think about the two stars on each side,

955
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 5: I think Indiana has more answers with Connorway back off

956
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 5: the bench and Enwright, who did an amazing job against

957
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 5: Braden Smith a couple weeks ago.

958
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 4: I think he.

959
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 5: Can handle Boyd a little bit, turn it into Blackwell

960
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 5: versus Wilkerson at home at Assembly Hall. I like Indiana's

961
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 5: chances to bounce back, like the look Greg Jim with

962
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 5: he got.

963
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 3: I'll hit two at the same time because they're kind

964
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 3: of similar angles where it's I like a coach owning

965
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 3: another coach one as you see Irvine, and we plus

966
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 3: one plus two at UC Santa Barbara. They've won five

967
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:07,439
Speaker 3: straight against Santa Barbara. They've covered for the last five

968
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 3: in those in those games. Russell Turner's been an institution

969
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 3: in this league for years, like has built Irvine into

970
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 3: a total powerhouse. And pasterer Nack's been good at Santa Barbara,

971
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 3: but more of a talent accumulator, and I think when

972
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,280
Speaker 3: he plays a team of similar ish talent like Irvine,

973
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 3: they really struggle. They struggle against that defense because they

974
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 3: can't manufacture good shots inside. Anteater's always always good on

975
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 3: the interior defense. And then I was stayed against Baylor.

976
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: This is a big number. It's sixteen at ken Pum.

977
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,919
Speaker 3: I don't know what it'll be in the market. But Greg,

978
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 3: can you tell me the last time Scott Drew covered

979
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 3: against Iowa State?

980
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 4: Oh, God, tell me, like five years ago.

981
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, we hadn't heard of COVID yet. It was January

982
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty, and he is zero to nine against

983
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: the spread against Otselberger he's oh for his last eleven

984
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:54,880
Speaker 3: against Iowa State. In general, it's just a terrible matchup.

985
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 3: The physicality, the pressure, defense gets into their guards. They

986
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 3: can't create on the perimeter. They have no interier you're

987
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: scoring at all, so they just kind of short circuit

988
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:05,879
Speaker 3: the offense before it can get started. I always Stay

989
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 3: crushes them on the boards. This will be the biggest

990
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 3: line that they've faced in that time span, but it's

991
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 3: also the worst Baylor team and probably the best Iowa

992
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 3: State team. So I'm gonna lay that number just based

993
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 3: on an incredible historical ownership of the matchup between those two.

994
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 1: I I can't argue with your logic with uc Rvine,

995
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 1: but I'm all the way in on on the Galchos.

996
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: I think they're the best team in the Big West.

997
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: I mean, how dare you since since Little got back.

998
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they've been an absolute wagon. Now there's been

999
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 1: three point there's some three point help on both ends.

1000
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: But I love this offense and I think they're rock too.

1001
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win the Big West, which I

1002
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 1: can't wait for that that tournament, by the way, it's

1003
00:50:56,040 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: gonna be very very competitive, So yeah, I can't I

1004
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 1: can't argue with you on on I always stated, I

1005
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 1: do see that by the time you listen to this

1006
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 1: you already know the result. But Barbara took a bunch

1007
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:12,839
Speaker 1: of money again tonight against UC Davis. I will throw

1008
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: out let's go, Jim. I know that you said, I

1009
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: don't know if you want to mention any specifically, but

1010
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: you said you're gonna, like a lot of the home teams,

1011
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 1: by the way, bring back Bracketbuster. I know that it

1012
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 1: probably I think the reason they stopped it one of

1013
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: my favorite saturdays of the year, especially from as a

1014
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:33,479
Speaker 1: better there's nothing better than you break up conference action.

1015
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 1: You can look at like the matchups, the x's and o's,

1016
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: and they would pit, oh my god. If people that

1017
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: are too young to remember Bracketbuster, they would take you

1018
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: didn't know the schedule ahead of time. They would take

1019
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 1: the best mid majors, pit them together to give them

1020
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 1: a chance to get another resume boosting win. I think

1021
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 1: it ended up hurting teams more than helping, like that's

1022
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 1: what they thought. And then I don't know, maybe money

1023
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:56,799
Speaker 1: was in it. I don't know why it stopped one

1024
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 1: of my favorite saturdays. But the replacement is this Max

1025
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: sunbelte obviously not as sexy, but you like a lot.

1026
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna like a lot of the home teams there.

1027
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just like, especially if you're not miyan Ohio,

1028
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 3: who's got something to play for, Like, this is a

1029
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 3: non conference game where you've got to go down to

1030
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 3: the South Way, out of your geographic footprint in the

1031
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 3: middle of February. I don't I don't buy it. And

1032
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 3: last year I don't have the exact numbers, but I

1033
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 3: bet every single home team when the Sundell teams went

1034
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 3: up to the MAC, I think it was like eight

1035
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 3: and four or seven and five. And I just buy

1036
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:29,280
Speaker 3: that it's always going to be profitable. That you're getting

1037
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 3: teams that have kind of folded in for the year

1038
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 3: or just have no reason to be worried about this game.

1039
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 3: Maybe you get some starter rest going out of their footprint.

1040
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 3: I like a lot of the home teams here, and

1041
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: I know you've got a couple of specific ones you like.

1042
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, my favorite one that I like is

1043
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: South Alabama against Buffalo. You have Buffalo coming off that

1044
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 1: close loss against my Ohio, so maybe a little bit

1045
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: flat here traveling non conference, but from a matchup perspective,

1046
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: you might say, Okay, Buffalo can shoot the three really well,

1047
00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 1: and they can. They have shooters that they're going to

1048
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: going up against the zone heavy defense in the country

1049
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 1: that just you know, they're the opposite of merrimack. They

1050
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 1: just beg you to shoot threes. But I think they're

1051
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 1: just gonna be they being even to a lot of

1052
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 1: bad threes. They're gonna bay Buffalo into a ton of

1053
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,320
Speaker 1: bad shots here. And because of that South Alabama defense,

1054
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 1: they're really bad on the defensive glass. Buffalo is a

1055
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 1: horrid offensive rebounding team. And then on the other end,

1056
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: most importantly South Alabama, all they want to do is

1057
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 1: get to the rim. That's it. At any cost, get

1058
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: to the rim. It's just a rim attacking offense. Slashers.

1059
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:36,240
Speaker 1: Buffalo is one of the worst rim defenses in the country.

1060
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 1: So I think South Alabama on both ends. Obviously there's

1061
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 1: some variants here, like Buffalo could hit seventeen threes, but

1062
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: I think the spot and matchup is very favorable to

1063
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: South Alabama here. I don't know if Buffalo is gonna

1064
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 1: be all the way locked in for that zone probably

1065
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 1: to end up taking a ton of bad threes in

1066
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 1: that game, and then they're not good on the offensive

1067
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 1: glass to get those second and third opportunities. Greg, what

1068
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:00,399
Speaker 1: else you got looking for.

1069
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 5: A tag team from Jim here when he started his

1070
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 5: last round with some coaches that have dominated, I thought

1071
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 5: you might be pivoting to Kelvin Sampson against Kevin Young here.

1072
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 5: Following Houston's combined I think fifty three point margin of

1073
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 5: victory in two meetings last year against BYU. This BYU

1074
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 5: team's reeling nature right now, I think is not solved,

1075
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 5: and I don't think it's going to be solved with

1076
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 5: a juiced up home environment against a team just as

1077
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 5: talented one but as physical as Houston can be on

1078
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 5: the inside.

1079
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 4: I think I watched both those.

1080
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 5: Games last year, and the BYU team that certainly was

1081
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 5: a little bit less athletic, maybe a lot less athletic,

1082
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 5: just looked like they played completely different sports than last

1083
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 5: year's Houston. Obviously, AJ Deboncea counter acts this a little bit,

1084
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 5: but who's Rob Wright going to guard in this game?

1085
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:50,280
Speaker 5: How can they possibly match up with that three headed

1086
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 5: Houston backcourt monster. All the numbers show the BYU's defense

1087
00:54:54,600 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 5: is fading from the sixties nationally against Tier one opponents here.

1088
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 5: Both these teams, by the way, without a win against

1089
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 5: a Ken Pom Top twenty opponent, which is crazy this

1090
00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 5: late in the season. But I think Houston gets up

1091
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 5: for this one and continues their winning ways.

1092
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 4: Anything to add Jim.

1093
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Houston's not going to have a win against the

1094
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 3: Ken Palm Top twenty team because they're going to knock

1095
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 3: BYU out of it after this game. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah.

1096
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 3: Rob Bright has struggled big against big back courts, long

1097
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 3: back courts, athletic ones like Arizona's, like Kansas a little bit,

1098
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 3: and I think he has major problems again here against

1099
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 3: that sharp Flemings us in all those guys can guard

1100
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 3: him and wrap him up a little bit. And then

1101
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,799
Speaker 3: I think Houston's offensive rebounding has been an issue for

1102
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 3: BYU in the past two Cada's kind of a one

1103
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 3: man wrecking crew in there, But if he's in foul

1104
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 3: trouble at all or just overwhelmed by the multiple bodies

1105
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 3: that Houston can throw at him. I like the Cougars too,

1106
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 3: just that style travels so well. They didn't lose a

1107
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 3: single Big twelve zero game last year. They only lost

1108
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 3: one this year was at Texas Tech and a big

1109
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 3: time shootout where Texas Tech shot the lights out. I

1110
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 3: think they know by he was in a tough spot

1111
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:01,840
Speaker 3: right now they might have they might lose five of six.

1112
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 3: That's kind of wild to say.

1113
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:08,799
Speaker 1: I mean this spot is all BYU, Like it's like,

1114
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:11,279
Speaker 1: do you have I mean Houston who Houston got caught

1115
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 1: UCF in a great spot off their huge win. And

1116
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:17,919
Speaker 1: but other than that, I mean over the past month,

1117
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,800
Speaker 1: who was Houston b And then you have BYU's lost

1118
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 1: what four or five? And but it's Texas Tech, Arizona,

1119
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,319
Speaker 1: Kansas and then they were a little flat against oklhom say,

1120
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 1: but there's issues. Their defense has some issues. They're spacing.

1121
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: It's basically just Saunders, so like everything is clogged for

1122
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,360
Speaker 1: defance to I mean, he's still so good, he's getting

1123
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: like thirty. But the key for them is, uh, let

1124
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 1: me see what he did only yeah, I mean not

1125
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 1: a good game again. The key the key for them

1126
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 1: in this game in particular, and I think going forward

1127
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:52,240
Speaker 1: is they need Canar Davis to not be a corpse

1128
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 1: and they need him to stretch, stretch defenses and make

1129
00:56:56,880 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 1: He needs to make threes like we saw him against

1130
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 1: Arizona have a decent game. But other than I mean,

1131
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 1: he's been a ghost for like a month, and I've

1132
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 1: been really disappointing because they had injuries. Their injuries early

1133
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,800
Speaker 1: in the season really killed them and their depth, and

1134
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 1: they're they're just so relyingt on on the big three.

1135
00:57:12,040 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 1: And then there's as you mentioned right, struggles kind of

1136
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: with physicality. Then you never know we're gonna get from

1137
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: from Davis, and then you know if Saunders as an

1138
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 1: off night, like gets ugly quick. So all right, uh,

1139
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 1: we do have I guess I'll throw out Auburn against Alabama.

1140
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 1: I'm already already talked about selling Alabama. Also, you have

1141
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: Auburn week off after that loss against Tennessee, Alabama emotional

1142
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: win over A and M. I think it's a good spot.

1143
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 1: I think it's a decent matchup. I think they'll dominate

1144
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 1: the offensive glass and they'll get whatever they want. So

1145
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 1: I like Auburn at home in the jungle against Alabama.

1146
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 1: We do have another big game, h unc Dukee. We

1147
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: haven't even mentioned yet that line. I think I saw

1148
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 1: openers of five and a half and then it got

1149
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,440
Speaker 1: up to six and a half. That Weard's still sitting.

1150
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 1: I mean, double check, there's some openers out there. But

1151
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 1: I know that you like a side there, Greg Jim,

1152
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 1: do you have an initial lean.

1153
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 3: I don't that one. I'm I'm very a of a

1154
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 3: split opinion. So part of me thinks, like Duke hasn't

1155
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 3: played much lately besides louisvilleho's kind of a wreck a mess,

1156
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 3: and maybe Duke gets a little bit of a an

1157
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 3: awakening here and they've got an athlete to guard Camp Boozer,

1158
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 3: but nobody can guard Camp Boozer. I'm not gonna talk

1159
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 3: myself into that.

1160
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's times where I watched Duke. Their defense is

1161
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 1: obviously excellent. And there's times where I watch Duke and

1162
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 1: Boozer is so good that like their offense, sometimes they'll

1163
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: they'll turn it over a bit too much. The shots

1164
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 1: election isn't great, So I don't know, but this UNC

1165
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 1: defense that it can be, it can get up in

1166
00:58:59,080 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 1: un he's playing better, and part of the UNC defensive

1167
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 1: issues like teams are shooting in like fifty percent from

1168
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 1: three over like a two week stretch. So it wasn't

1169
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 1: as bad as it looked. But there are definitely some

1170
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 1: holes there but they've kind of settled the backcourt situation

1171
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: a bit in Carolina at the point, which was an

1172
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 1: issue letting Trimble play off the ball. And then obviously

1173
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 1: I can't wait for Caleb Wilson versus Boozer, but one

1174
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 1: of the keys here in this game might be Vsar

1175
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:38,439
Speaker 1: outside shooting, bringing that the Duke bigs out. But Greg,

1176
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 1: I know you like you like the heels here. It

1177
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 1: looks like six and a half is the number out

1178
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 1: there right now.

1179
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, and if it's at six or more, I think

1180
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 5: I got to play it. I jumped on it at

1181
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 5: six and a half and I think I think you

1182
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 5: nailed it. I like the bigs for Carolina in this game.

1183
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 5: I think Vsar can space him out a little bit

1184
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 5: with Big Pat. I think Caleb Wilson's familiarity with AAU

1185
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 5: team team camb Boozer is gonna matter in this game.

1186
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 1: Now.

1187
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 5: Obviously, look being friends with Cam Boozer, I don't think

1188
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 5: necessarily means you're gonna have success against him. But I

1189
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 5: think when they've got that type of size and it

1190
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 5: really is one of those things if you've seen it before,

1191
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 5: I think you're a little less spooped by just his

1192
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 5: physical prowess, and you know, you think about what killed

1193
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 5: North Carolina's defense earlier in the season, maybe a week ago.

1194
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:23,960
Speaker 5: I don't want to say like it was a month ago,

1195
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:26,959
Speaker 5: but it's been guard play. It's been guards that can

1196
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 5: score and shoot the lights out. Who on Duke are

1197
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 5: we worried about? Is Caleb Foster gonna go for thirty

1198
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 5: to win this game? I think that's a win for

1199
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 5: the Carolina defense in the first place. If it happens,

1200
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 5: maybe you get like a weird Nicomenia game or something that,

1201
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:42,920
Speaker 5: or maybe do they just lose Isaiah Evans and he

1202
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 5: goes for thirty.

1203
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1204
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 5: If he does that in Chapel Hill, I think you

1205
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 5: tip your cap to him. I think this is a

1206
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 5: good spot for a Carolina team that honestly has won

1207
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 5: some big games at home already this year and got

1208
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 5: up for that big win at Virginia that was a

1209
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 5: big one. Duke, I think might be looking at those

1210
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,760
Speaker 5: Louisville results sort of I don't want to say over confident,

1211
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 5: but those might have said more about Louisville than they

1212
01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 5: did about Duke, and you might look up to a

1213
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 5: slow start in Chapel Hill and Carolina can capitalize.

1214
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, well one, I mean Dukes that Duke's has turn

1215
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 1: of issues with Carolina. Will never ever, ever ever turn

1216
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 1: you over, but I think do Basically this comes down

1217
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: to Carolina shooting like that. That's basically that what's going

1218
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 1: to decide to cover. Do they make enough threes or not?

1219
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 1: But six and a half I kind of lean your way,

1220
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 1: and then you have one more before we get out

1221
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: of here. Penn State, who I think is down fifty

1222
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 1: to shooting the last I checked. Yeah, we like them.

1223
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 1: Did they play who do they play? USC?

1224
01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:41,240
Speaker 4: This is Sunday against USC.

1225
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 5: It's a total spot bet, and yes, I think they're

1226
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 5: down forty six with seven minutes left right now? Uh

1227
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 5: just USC Baker Mazar's injury. Coming off two straight wins,

1228
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 5: but the home win against Indiana that was a little

1229
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 5: juiced up. Now take the sleepiest road trip in the

1230
01:01:55,800 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 5: Big Ten every single season across the country to Happy

1231
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 5: Valley to take on Penn State team that yes, is

1232
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 5: getting blitzed right now, but I think at minimum it's

1233
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 5: that spooky empty environment.

1234
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:07,800
Speaker 4: Elijah A.

1235
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 5: Renus was awful for his first three games of his career,

1236
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 5: and then he went completely nuclear. At home to beat Indiana.

1237
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:16,439
Speaker 5: If they have to bank on that again on the road,

1238
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 5: I'll just take the points in what I expect to

1239
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 5: be a letdown spot from US.

1240
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that better value. With them losing by fifty,

1241
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 3: you might get a little better value. That's great love.

1242
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that it's a spot I had circled in.

1243
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 1: Penn State's so young, and it is a horrible spot.

1244
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:34,760
Speaker 1: They got their first big ten win, they go to Michigan,

1245
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: you know, Michigan team that they didn't Penn State almost

1246
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 1: beat them, so like Michigan had their full attention. And

1247
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 1: but it's such a young team like Keenn State is

1248
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 1: so young that I like, I like betting them at

1249
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 1: home rather than on the road against monsters. So uh,

1250
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:54,720
Speaker 1: And they've been pretty competitive at home. I mean you

1251
01:02:54,760 --> 01:02:56,600
Speaker 1: look at some of their games, right, they just beat

1252
01:02:57,520 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 1: They just beat Minnesota. They were they were in it

1253
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:06,480
Speaker 1: against UCLA. They almost beat Michigan, they were in it

1254
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 1: all the way to the end against Michigan State. So

1255
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:12,320
Speaker 1: they've had some promising home results this year that can

1256
01:03:12,360 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 1: give you confidence there. But I guess one word favorite

1257
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: play of the weekend obviously number dependent, But if they

1258
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: come out where you think it is. I'll go South Alabama.

1259
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 3: Jim Tennessee moneyline right around, pick.

1260
01:03:26,600 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 1: Greg Houston, Sam, all right, that'll do it for us.

1261
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:33,280
Speaker 1: Thanks to Jim and Greg for joining me. Thanks to

1262
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:34,840
Speaker 1: our producer David on the back end most poorly. Thanks

1263
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 1: to all of you for tuning in. Make sure you

1264
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,480
Speaker 1: subscribe on Subscribe Subscribe, tel Friend, Telling Enemy, leave a

1265
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 1: five star review if you get a chance. Make sure

1266
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 1: you check out our other episodes. We have three Man.

1267
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 1: We've always do a great job on the early week episode.

1268
01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: We have our mid week episode Those Guys Kill It,

1269
01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 1: and then we'll be back next week. We'll add another

1270
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 1: future talk about the week that was preview next weekend.

1271
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 1: Thanks again for tuning in. We'll catch all later years.

1272
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:18,160
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1273
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:20,960
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