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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: For most people, a Thursday would mean we are one

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Speaker 2: day away from the end of the work week.

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Speaker 3: Friday would be upon us.

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Speaker 2: But of course, here in Washington, at least if you

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Speaker 2: are an elected representative on Capitol Hill, usually your work

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Speaker 2: weekends on a Thursday. Everybody flies out of here. And

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Speaker 2: it does look Joe like that is what is going

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Speaker 2: to happen this evening. Even if there is no deal

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Speaker 2: to keep the Department of Homeland Security funded beyond the

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Speaker 2: deadline of tomorrow, it doesn't look like that deal is

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Speaker 2: anywhere close to getting done.

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Speaker 3: Therefore, they're taking recess as they plan to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, both chambers, so this could be well, it's undetermined

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Speaker 4: if this shutdown takes place in Homeland Security exactly how

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Speaker 4: long it will last, because there does not appear to

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Speaker 4: be a continuing resolution that anybody can agree on here

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Speaker 4: and before we talk about this and a lot more

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Speaker 4: with Senator shelleymore Capital of the Republican from West Virginia

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Speaker 4: is going to join us live from Capitol Hill. Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall is also roaming the halls of

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Speaker 4: the Capitol and finding a lot of news today. There's

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Speaker 4: a lot going on with regard to this debate, but

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Speaker 4: also Tyler, the Federal Reserve and the next chair. I

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Speaker 4: want to start here with you because you had a

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Speaker 4: conversation with Tom Tillis earlier today that's making a lot

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Speaker 4: of news knowing that there was this idea of maybe

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Speaker 4: a swap in investigations, if you will, to unlock a

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Speaker 4: confirmation hearing in the Banking Committee, if the DOJ were

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Speaker 4: to drop its Senate Banking Committee would pick it up.

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Speaker 5: Tyler is Tom Tillis in favor of this move.

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Speaker 6: No Joe.

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Speaker 7: He told us reporters here on Capitol Hill that he

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Speaker 7: is batting down this idea, and he's really central to

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Speaker 7: what is going to happen to Kevin Worsh's nomination going forward,

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Speaker 7: because he is that key member on the Senate Banking

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Speaker 7: Committee where Republicans only hold that thirteen to eleven majority.

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Speaker 7: So in terms of this proposal being floated. One Republican

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Speaker 7: official does tell Bloomberg News that an option being put

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Speaker 7: on the table could be for the Senate Banking Committee,

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Speaker 7: as you outlined, to take over the investigation or lead

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Speaker 7: an investigation, presumably to have the Department of Justice let

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Speaker 7: up on its investigation. But Tom Tillis says that is

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Speaker 7: not going to be a viable option.

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Speaker 8: I really do think Walsh is a great nominee. In fact,

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Speaker 8: the shortlist was great. I told the President of that.

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Speaker 8: But I'm not going to have an investigation out there

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Speaker 8: because I still think it speaks to the very thing

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Speaker 8: that I moved quickly to make a point on the

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Speaker 8: Sunday night when the investigation revelation was there. We have

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Speaker 8: to have an independent FED and we can't finesse this.

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Speaker 8: They either need to move forward with a compelling investigation

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Speaker 8: that convinces me I was wrong, or resolve the current

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Speaker 8: investigation and move on.

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Speaker 3: Joe and Kelly.

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Speaker 7: I then pressed Senator Tillis to see if he could

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Speaker 7: confirm that these negotiations are happening behind the scenes with

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Speaker 7: the White House. He said that he would not detail

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Speaker 7: his private conversations with the administration, though it was interesting

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Speaker 7: to hear him also add that he felt that the

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Speaker 7: administration was actually caught off guard by this investigation that

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Speaker 7: was launched by the Department of Justice into Jerome Powell.

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Speaker 7: So it's one of those threads that we're going to

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Speaker 7: have to keep following closely here because, as you well know,

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Speaker 7: Powell's term as chair is up in May, and this

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Speaker 7: is a process that actually does take some time. Al

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Speaker 7: worsh has been broadly applauded. This historic typically would have

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Speaker 7: been considered a pretty easy confirmation hearing, it's going to

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Speaker 7: take some weeks at least to get going because he

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Speaker 7: has to meet privately with all the members here in

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Speaker 7: the Senate before we can even talk about setting that

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Speaker 7: potential hearing date.

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Speaker 2: So this is a thread we will continue to follow,

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Speaker 2: as you say, Tyler, another thread we're following, of course today,

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Speaker 2: knowing that the deadline looms tomorrow to keep the Department

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Speaker 2: of Homeland Security funded or risk shutting it down. Has

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Speaker 2: there been any progress today that you sense on Capitol

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Speaker 2: Hill to avoid that outcome or are we just expecting

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Speaker 2: everyone to get on their planes and deal with this

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Speaker 2: on the other side of recess.

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Speaker 3: Well, Kaylee, it depends on who you ask.

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Speaker 7: I did have a conversation with the lead Republican negotiator

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Speaker 7: for DHS funding that Senator Katie Britt, a Republican from Alabama.

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Speaker 7: She told me that they have made quote significant strides

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Speaker 7: when it comes to negotiation. She's talking about the side

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Speaker 7: sending a text back and forth to each other. But

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Speaker 7: when you ask Democrats, they're saying that the proposals being

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Speaker 7: put on the table by the White House is not

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Speaker 7: enough to actually amount to getting their votes. Not for

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Speaker 7: the full fiscal year funding for DHS, that appears to

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Speaker 7: be an option that is long gone at this point,

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Speaker 7: but for potentially supporting another continuing resolution for potentially two weeks,

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Speaker 7: as we just saw for DHS. And of course, as

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Speaker 7: you well know, there was that breaking news this morning.

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Speaker 7: President Trump's borders are confirming that they are going to

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Speaker 7: end that surge in a Minnesota. While that was broadly

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Speaker 7: applauded by both sides of the aisle, it is action

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Speaker 7: like that that Democrats say isn't enough to get them

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Speaker 7: to the table. They need to see some of their

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Speaker 7: demands really codified into law instead of just falling to

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Speaker 7: executive action.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live on Capitol Hill for us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much and sticking on Capitol Hill here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 3: I'm pleased to say.

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Speaker 2: Also joining us live now is Republican Senator Shellingmore, capital

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Speaker 2: of West Virginia, the chair of the Committee on Environment

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Speaker 2: and Public Works. Senator Capito, thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: being back with us. Is it your expectation that the

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Speaker 2: Department of Homeland Security is going to be shutting down

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Speaker 2: come midnight tomorrow or do you see an eleventh hour

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Speaker 2: opportunity to avert that outcome today?

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Speaker 9: You know, right now, I would have to say that

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Speaker 9: it looks fairly inevitable that we will have a partial

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Speaker 9: shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. I think it's

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Speaker 9: good to frame that. Remember, we did pass a lot

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Speaker 9: of bills and the President signed into law, so ninety

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Speaker 9: six percent of the government is fully functioning, but that

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Speaker 9: critical piece of Homeland Security, in all likelihood will shut down.

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Speaker 9: But I am for extending the time for debate. I

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Speaker 9: am for making improvements such as Senator britt was able

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Speaker 9: to negotiate into the Homeland Security bill.

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Speaker 6: We need to.

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Speaker 9: Move beyond this and make sure that our Coastguard and

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Speaker 9: our TSA, and our Secret Service and our FEMA are

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Speaker 9: all funded along with our border patrol and ICE.

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Speaker 5: Senator's good to see.

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Speaker 4: I wonder your thoughts on this approach that some Democrats

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Speaker 4: are taking in the House. Rosa Delora has a bill

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Speaker 4: that would essentially strip ICE itself away from the other

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Speaker 4: agencies under DHS, like the TSA, FEMA, the Coastguard. If

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Speaker 4: the House accomplished that, would that even be entertained in

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Speaker 4: the Senate?

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Speaker 9: You know, I don't think that's a good strategy. We've

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Speaker 9: got to look at homeland security in the whole. It

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Speaker 9: is important that we have internal enforcement of our not

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Speaker 9: just immigration laws, but our ability to work with cities

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Speaker 9: and counties and states to be able to remove people

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Speaker 9: that have been adjudicated and are under deportation.

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Speaker 6: Orders.

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Speaker 9: And that's what ICE does. And so I'm fully supportive

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Speaker 9: of the efforts that they've moved forward, and the same

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Speaker 9: with border patrol. I mean, can we make improvements, Yes,

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Speaker 9: and improvements are built into the bill. More cameras, more training,

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Speaker 9: more ig or you know, inspectors, inspections. These improvements can

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Speaker 9: be made. They're already built into the bill that the

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Speaker 9: Democrats will not accept, and I think they're using this

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Speaker 9: as a political statement. I think if we pull it out,

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Speaker 9: it becomes even more polarized and more political.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we consider the politicization of the ICE issues specifically,

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Speaker 2: it of course has been a focal or the focal

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Speaker 2: point of that has been in Minnesota and Minneapolis specifically

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Speaker 2: in the aftermath of the two US citizens who were killed.

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Speaker 2: We learned from Tom Homan the borders are today that

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Speaker 2: they are going to be drawing down Operation Metro Surge

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Speaker 2: in Minnesota. Let's take a listen to what mister Homan

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Speaker 2: said earlier.

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Speaker 10: In success that has been made to rest in public

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Speaker 10: safety threats and other priorities since this surge operation began,

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Speaker 10: as well as the unprecedented levels of coordination we have

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Speaker 10: obtained from state officials and local law enforcement. I have

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Speaker 10: proposed and President Trump has concurred, that this surge operation conclude.

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Speaker 10: A significant drawdown has already been underway this week and

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Speaker 10: we'll continue to the next week.

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Speaker 2: So if we are at the conclusion of this operation, Senator,

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Speaker 2: with the benefit of hindsight, did the operation surge too far?

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Speaker 9: Well, here what I think, what I'm reading in what

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Speaker 9: he's saying is the key component that he emphasizing is

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Speaker 9: the coordination between state and local and I'm not sure

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Speaker 9: that that was there before the temperature went way up.

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Speaker 9: And then I think this has been part of the

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Speaker 9: compromise between that Tom Homan was able to forge with

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Speaker 9: state and local authorities and with ice and border patrol.

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Speaker 9: Let's lower the temperature, let's work together as law enforcement officers,

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Speaker 9: and let's get the worst of the worst out of here.

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Speaker 9: And I think those are reasonable propositions. Did it go

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Speaker 9: too far? I think obviously mistakes have been made and

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Speaker 9: had some very very life ending and altering results, and

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Speaker 9: for that, I think we all wish we could go

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Speaker 9: back and change that. But I think lowering the temperature,

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Speaker 9: removing themselves from the operation and leaving it to state

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Speaker 9: and locals, that's what we need to do.

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Speaker 6: We need to have that coordinated effect.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's interesting, Senator, We've talked to a number

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Speaker 4: of your colleagues, Republican senators, about the issue of dmasking,

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Speaker 4: and we've heard the argument on both sides of it. It

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Speaker 4: appears to be a breaking point and I'm wondering if

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Speaker 4: D masking is a non starter for you.

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Speaker 9: You know, in my view that that's just sort of

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Speaker 9: an issue that I think gains a lot of attention.

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Speaker 9: We just obviously as a nation went through a big

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Speaker 9: masking issue during during COVID, but also the protesters in

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Speaker 9: New York, they were all masked, and we were saying,

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Speaker 9: you know, if you were if you're protesting, we need

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Speaker 9: to be able to see your face. And then now

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Speaker 9: we see the same sort of argument on the opposite side.

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Speaker 6: I think that you have to do this on a

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Speaker 6: case by case basis.

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Speaker 9: We have to protect our officers, and I think the

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Speaker 9: protesters in Minneapolis showed that they're willing to docs threaten

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Speaker 9: families and threaten the health and security of a federal

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Speaker 9: law enforcement officer, which in and of itself is pretty frightening.

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Speaker 9: So I think maybe even the temperature goes down, we'll

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Speaker 9: see more more abilities for identifications. But I do wouldn't

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Speaker 9: reserve the right for our officers to wear a mask

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Speaker 9: if they filled their lives in danger.

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Speaker 3: Yes, Senator, I'd like to which gears.

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Speaker 2: As we are expecting later this hour President Trump to

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Speaker 2: be peering at the White House with the Administrator of

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Speaker 2: the EPA, Lee Zelden to formally revoke the so called

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Speaker 2: endangerment finding around greenhouse gases. Lee Zelden calls this the

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Speaker 2: largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States.

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Speaker 2: But I ask you, given your chairship of the Environment

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Speaker 2: in Public Works Committee, is it too large an act

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Speaker 2: of deregulation? Could this not have negative environmental consequences?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 9: No, we have environmental laws that are strict, stringent and

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Speaker 9: they're adhered to. What this has done is taken an

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Speaker 9: issue in the early Obama administration and ballooned it up

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Speaker 9: into what can we do for global carbon emissions and

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Speaker 9: what we see? And as you read articles, different opinion

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Speaker 9: articles from different papers, some that are very liberal papers

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Speaker 9: have said, yes, the engagement finding went too far. You

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Speaker 9: cannot have the executive take control of the legislative prerogatives

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Speaker 9: of Congress.

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Speaker 6: And that's what's happened, and it stayed.

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Speaker 9: It's going to be the largest I think economic deregulation

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Speaker 9: that we've seen. I'm sure it will be litigated, but

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Speaker 9: I feel confident that he's on firm ground, especially in

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Speaker 9: light of some of the past decisions by the Supreme

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Speaker 9: Court that we've seen that have said the executive and

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Speaker 9: the agencies have to stay within the boundaries that Congress

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Speaker 9: has set, and an endangerment finding goes way beyond that.

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Speaker 4: Really interesting, I don't know if you were their senator,

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Speaker 4: but the President of the United States was awarded the

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Speaker 4: Undisputed Champion of Beautiful Clean Coal Trophy yesterday at the

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Speaker 4: White House. Peabody Energy Jim Gretch actually gave it to

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Speaker 4: him in the effort to celebrate in order that the

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Speaker 4: President made directing the Pentagon to buy electricity from coal

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Speaker 4: fired power plants. What does that mean for the industry

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Speaker 4: in West Virginia?

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Speaker 9: This Pentagon deal well the certainty to the coal industry,

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Speaker 9: but it also provides a great a lot of balance

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Speaker 9: and certainty to the nation.

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Speaker 6: Let's just look at this practically.

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Speaker 9: Over the last two to three weeks, we've had these

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Speaker 9: amazingly low temperatures. If you look at the energy, who's

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Speaker 9: providing the energy to warm our homes?

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Speaker 6: What source?

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Speaker 9: Coal has had a major role here, along with natural

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Speaker 9: gas and nuclear, and so we have to preserve these

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Speaker 9: baseload energy availabilities to do a lot of things, but

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Speaker 9: just the basic needs of heating our homes and making

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Speaker 9: sure that our hospitals are open, all of these things,

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Speaker 9: so he you know, the president's a big fan of coal.

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Speaker 6: Coal Country loves the President. I was there yesterday.

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Speaker 9: It means more a longer life for a lot of

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Speaker 9: our coal producing power plants, but also more coal mining jobs.

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Speaker 9: They're doing it better, safer and cleaner than they ever

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Speaker 9: have and it just makes a lot of sense for

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Speaker 9: our nation.

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Speaker 2: Senator, we just have a minute left, but I know

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Speaker 2: you today have officially signed on to the America Act

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Speaker 2: that passed the House of Representatives last night. Of course

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Speaker 2: at voter id piece of legislation. Your Republican colleague, Senator

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Speaker 2: Lisa Rakowski has suggested that legislations such as this could

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Speaker 2: have the effect of federalizing elections. We know President Trump

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Speaker 2: has had made some comments about nationalizing elections as well.

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Speaker 2: Is that an idea you stand behind or do you

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Speaker 2: have concern about that?

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Speaker 9: Well, yeah, I don't want to federalize our elections so

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Speaker 9: that every state has the same election parameters and our

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Speaker 9: secretaries of States can't form and function their election practices

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Speaker 9: that their legislature puts forward.

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Speaker 6: So this doesn't do this.

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Speaker 9: This basically says you just have to prove that you're

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Speaker 9: an American citizen to vote an American election. It sounds simple.

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Speaker 9: I would say it's probably not as simple as it sounds,

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Speaker 9: because I think some of the identification issues could pose

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Speaker 9: a challenge to some secretaries of state, whether you need

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Speaker 9: to passport or birth certificate or a real ID card,

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Speaker 9: and some of these issues have been raised. But honestly,

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Speaker 9: it's a simple concept. Many states have voter ID minds,

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Speaker 9: one of them.

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Speaker 5: Senator's great to have you back on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: Republican Shelleymore Capital West Virginia live from Capitol Hill. I'm

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Speaker 4: Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions in Washington. We'll assemble our

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Speaker 4: political panel next and get into the shutdown politics once again.

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Speaker 4: This is getting to be a routine stay with us.

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Speaker 11: On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up

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Speaker 11: after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: We're keeping an eye right now on the Senate floor,

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Speaker 2: where they are trying to take at least a procedural

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Speaker 2: step forward in an attempt by the Republican majority to

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Speaker 2: keep the Department of Homeland Security funded beyond the deadline

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Speaker 2: of midnight tomorrow. They're in trying to invote cloture on

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Speaker 2: a motion to proceed on the DA Chess build that

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Speaker 2: the House passed. This isn't necessarily a vote on final passage,

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Speaker 2: but this may not be successful either. And the anticipation

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Speaker 2: here in Washington is that despite whatever effort the Senate

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Speaker 2: puts up today and the efforts of negotiators maybe to

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Speaker 2: reach some kind of agreement, Joe, it's highly likely there

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Speaker 2: will be a partial shutdown tomorrow and Senators will go

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Speaker 2: on their recess and we'll have to reconvene.

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Speaker 3: Come what a week can change.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because House is going away too, right, and there

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Speaker 4: are some really big codels this weekend. As we've talked

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Speaker 4: about the Munich Security conference. The jets are taken off

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Speaker 4: one way or the other here. So following our conversation

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Speaker 4: with the Senator, it's not sounding like a lot has

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Speaker 4: changed since the White House brought its counteroffer, and boy,

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Speaker 4: the headlines coming out of Minnesota today certainly have our

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Speaker 4: attention as well. You wonder how this may or may

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Speaker 4: not have impacted the debate if it took place a

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago. But the administration is pulling back

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Speaker 4: from the Twin Cities. Tom Holman announcing earlier today that

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Speaker 4: ice agents are coming out of the city. Was seven

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Speaker 4: one hundred removed a couple of weeks ago, remembering there

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Speaker 4: were still a couple of thousand agents at work, more

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Speaker 4: than two thousand, and they are now decamping, which we

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Speaker 4: want to talk about with our political panel. Both of

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Speaker 4: these stories collide in an interesting way. Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 4: Rick Davis is with US Republican strategist and partner at

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Speaker 4: Stone Core Capital, alongside Doug Ferrer, principal at Maywood Strategy's

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Speaker 4: former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lena kah Rick. What

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Speaker 4: do you think of the move from Holman today and

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Speaker 4: with some time, if we see the temperature come down,

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Speaker 4: as Senator Capito said in Minneapolis, will that start to

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Speaker 4: creep into the debate here in Washington.

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Speaker 12: Yeah, I think that this is all part of the

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Speaker 12: same cycle of discussions, right, I mean, two weeks ago,

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Speaker 12: the administration booted Greg Boven out of Minneapolis and unceremoniously,

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Speaker 12: you know, get out of town and get out of

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Speaker 12: town today and injected home and in to run the thing.

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Speaker 12: And two weeks later we have this press conference basically

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Speaker 12: unraveling the operation what do they call it, Operation Metro Surge. Well,

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Speaker 12: they're not surgeon anymore. They're getting out. And they've also

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Speaker 12: said some things that actually add to the negotiations going on,

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Speaker 12: you know, in Congress over DHS funding, and one is

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Speaker 12: that they're not going to make arrest anymore around schools

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Speaker 12: and churches and hospitals, which was one of the things

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Speaker 12: that Democrats had asked for, and that they were going

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Speaker 12: to start working better with state and local, which you know,

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Speaker 12: is one of the fundamental aspects of the Democratic negotiating positions.

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Speaker 12: And I think the fact that they also pulled out

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Speaker 12: of all these other towns where they had these surges

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Speaker 12: LA Portland, places like that is an indication that this

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Speaker 12: administration is raised in a white flag and understands that

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Speaker 12: the overreach has not only affected their ability to get

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Speaker 12: built through Congress on funding DHS, but also it's crushing

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Speaker 12: their polling numbers in advance of a midterm election. And

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Speaker 12: I think those two twin pillars are exactly what's bringing

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Speaker 12: us to the potential of getting a deal sometime soon

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Speaker 12: on DHS.

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Speaker 2: Well, as Rick points us to the midterms, that's still

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Speaker 2: nine months out, Doug, and I wonder if taking this

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Speaker 2: away potentially is a talking point, if we have seen

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Speaker 2: a lot of these operations unsurging, as Rick is suggesting,

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Speaker 2: does that mean Democrats are going to lose one of

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Speaker 2: their best political arguments as we get closer to this cycle.

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Speaker 13: I don't think so, because immigration's so central to President

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Speaker 13: Trump's pitch. I mean, it's really his main issue, and

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Speaker 13: incredibly he's turned it into a democratic issue.

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Speaker 14: I don't think he's going to stop.

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Speaker 13: I mean, there's been reports that they are buying up

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Speaker 13: these warehouses where they can hold people, that they're building

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Speaker 13: sort of camps for people that they think they want

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Speaker 13: to deport. I suspect that President Trump won't be able

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Speaker 13: to resist. You know, a state or a city, a

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Speaker 13: blue state might piss him off, might do something, and

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Speaker 13: he's going to respond. And so I think, you know,

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Speaker 13: this may be a temporary reprieve and certainly a great

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Speaker 13: reprieve for the people of Minnesota who've been through so much.

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Speaker 14: But this isn't going anywhere, you know.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting to see Greg Bovino back on social media.

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Speaker 4: This is, of course, the gentleman who was dispatched from

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Speaker 4: Minneapolis when Tom Holman went to try to lower the

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Speaker 4: temperature back on x replying to posts as we read,

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Speaker 4: including one from the Governor of Illinois JB. Pritzker, who

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Speaker 4: is calling for Bovino to be fired. Quote, perhaps we

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Speaker 4: could meet for a sugar free slice of heirloom apple

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Speaker 4: pie on me, he writes. So the online trolling has

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Speaker 4: not ended here, Rick, and I wonder if we should

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Speaker 4: be looking at this action in Minneapolis in isolation, or

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Speaker 4: if this is going to be what takes place around

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Speaker 4: the country when you've got Bovino and others still ready

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Speaker 4: to surge.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 12: First, my apologies to Greg Bovino. I think I call

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Speaker 12: him Greg Bovine, and I didn't mean to imply that

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Speaker 12: he was a cow or anything.

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Speaker 14: So my mistake.

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Speaker 12: Secondarily, Yeah, look, I think this is this is an

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Speaker 12: issue in transition, right. I mean, I think the administration

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Speaker 12: came out all guns blazing. For one year, we saw

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Speaker 12: nothing but chaos on the streets of you know, blue

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Speaker 12: cities around America, and and you know, it was only

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Speaker 12: a few months ago that we had you know, the

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Speaker 12: military dispatch to La you know, and and so like

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Speaker 12: this constant increase in anxiety and tempo of the administration's efforts.

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Speaker 5: Actually didn't work.

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Speaker 12: I mean, we spoke the other day about the fact

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Speaker 12: that even today, you know, only a small portion of

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Speaker 12: the four hundred thousand people arrested, which by the way,

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Speaker 12: was less than the last year of the Biden administration,

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Speaker 12: were hardened criminals. And so there's all this you know,

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Speaker 12: discussion amongst Republican ranks like, hey, we've spent billions of dollars,

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Speaker 12: We've created a political mess around the country. Our image

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Speaker 12: is tarnished by this, and we actually aren't getting what

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Speaker 12: we wanted to get done. And so I do think

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Speaker 12: there's a lot going on inside the White House. I

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Speaker 12: can't imagine what the conversations are with Stephen Miller these days,

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Speaker 12: because you know, this was his strategy to basically occupy

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Speaker 12: blue America, you know, with ice agents, and looks like

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Speaker 12: that's not happening anymore. And so we'll see Doug's right,

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Speaker 12: you know, you never can tell what's going to happen

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Speaker 12: in this administration. But I think as you see this

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Speaker 12: thing deconflict, one it is good for the country, but two,

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Speaker 12: it gives us a chance to sort of have a

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Speaker 12: conversation about what is the right approach to immigration because

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Speaker 12: what's currently happening isn't being supported by the American people.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we consider you never know what's going to

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Speaker 2: happen with this administration. You also never know what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen in terms of the revolving door of arrivals

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Speaker 2: and departures within it. Doug, And given your former purview

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Speaker 2: at the FTC, I do want to ask you about

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Speaker 2: the news we got today that the top anti trust

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Speaker 2: official at the Department of Justice, Abigail Slater, has resigned.

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Speaker 2: We understand a reside nation that came at the request

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Speaker 2: of the White House. What does her departure signal to

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Speaker 2: you about the current m and A questions that are

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00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 2: underway or being considered by the DJ and what the

442
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: path forward is going to look like in her absence.

443
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 13: Well, Gail's firing is a story of just dysfunction and

444
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 13: corruption that's going on in this administration. I mean almost

445
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 13: immediately after she came in, there was reports that she

446
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 13: was being sidelined by highly paid lobbyists who have really

447
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 13: good access to Bondi and Trump HP Juniper being the case,

448
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 13: and since then, basically she's not been in charge and

449
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 13: she's been a dead woman walking.

450
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 14: The lobbyists, Mike Davis and others.

451
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 13: Take a lot of money from these companies to get

452
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 13: their mergers through, and frankly, it's sort of banana Republic

453
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 13: stuff here.

454
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 14: And so I think what I'm watching is what does

455
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 14: Jade Vance do?

456
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 13: Because Gail Slater was Jade Vance's senior economic advisor, and

457
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 13: Jade Vance, like a year ago, was a populist warrior

458
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 13: focused on big tech enforcement. So where is he on

459
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 13: this and how much does this drag him down in

460
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 13: his political ambitions to sort of abandon his top staffer

461
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 13: in such an ugly way.

462
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 4: We're all old enough to remember jd Vance as a

463
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 4: fan of Lena Kahan. I believe that, by the way,

464
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: was a seventy eight to nineteen vote in which she

465
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 4: was confirmed.

466
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 5: You call it a firing, Rick Davis.

467
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 4: The statement from Slater says, it is with great sadness

468
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 4: and abiding hope that.

469
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 5: I leave my role.

470
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 4: What do you make of this move and does this

471
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 4: usher in the animal spirits that everybody was talking about

472
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: when President Trump came back in the White House.

473
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 12: Wow, that's a lot First of all, one in doubt

474
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 12: blaming on the lobbyists. This astation came in with a

475
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 12: lot of you know, energy and activity around the idea

476
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 12: that you know, you were going to go after big corporations,

477
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 12: and so at the end of the day, you know,

478
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 12: that's just not been happening. And if anything, there's been

479
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 12: this big hug of you know, Silicon Valley and that

480
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 12: kind of thing. So it'll be interesting to see whether

481
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 12: or not this administration can change course and go back

482
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 12: to where jd Vance was versus where Donald Trump has

483
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 12: put them. Democrats are seeing this as a huge gain

484
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 12: for them. They they had a base around the country

485
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 12: for protecting small business and things like that, and and

486
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 12: they lost that. Mojo and Doug has written eloquently about this.

487
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 12: But they need an opening to create a rallying call

488
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 12: around that, and maybe this is the kind of thing

489
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 12: that that will generate that kind of response.

490
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: I think we may have seen an appearance of a

491
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 2: Rick Davis grandchild just now on Bloomberg TV. I think

492
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 2: you're opening the door Rick for me to bring a

493
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: baby boy on the show at some point and make

494
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: an appearance just quickly on the animal spirits.

495
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 5: I love that.

496
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 2: Just finally, Doug in our last minute here on the

497
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 2: animal spirits notion, should we expect that? This is like,

498
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: if you want to get a merger are done. Now

499
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: is your window of opportunity to strike.

500
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 13: Look, if you want to pay the lobbyists who are

501
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 13: in charge of merger control, yeah, you can get your

502
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 13: merger done. They haven't blocked a single merger at this point,

503
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 13: so I mean, the animal spirits are fully in effect.

504
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,959
Speaker 13: But I think the concern is the breakdown in the

505
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 13: sort of rule of law that we have here and

506
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 13: the thing I'm going to be watching. It's been reported

507
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 13: and I've heard from sources that the Live Nation lawsuit,

508
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 13: which seeks to protect people buying tickets Kid Rock, famous

509
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 13: friends and allies of the president, they're looking to settle

510
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 13: that potentially favorably for the company, And that was the

511
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 13: last straw for Gale. If that happens, people are going

512
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 13: to feel that in their wallets amidst an affordability crisis.

513
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 14: So it's a real mess up there.

514
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 13: And I hope Democrats will ask them to preserve documents

515
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 13: and if they take the House, do some serious oversight.

516
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 2: All right, A perfect day to have Doug with us

517
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. Doug Fair, our principle at

518
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: Maywood Strategies, former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lenacan, alongside

519
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, our Bloomberg Politics contributor, Stone Cord Capital partner,

520
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: and of course proud grandfather as well. We'll have much

521
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: more come up here on Balance of Power. We're going

522
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,439
Speaker 2: to go back to Capitol Hill. Republican Congressman Mike Flood

523
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: of the mainStreet Caucus will be with us next.

524
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 11: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

525
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 11: more coming up after this.

526
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

527
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

528
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

529
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

530
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

531
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 4: This is the Thursday edition of Balance of Power with

532
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 4: important votes happening right now on Capitol Hill as the

533
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 4: Senate follows on the House in voting for this DHS

534
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 4: funding package that is expected to fail. It's looking like

535
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 4: as they go through the procedural motions here, this is

536
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 4: kind of inevitable. As we discussed with Senator Shelley more Capital,

537
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 4: there is one idea here before we bring in Congressman

538
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: Mike Flood, we're going to hear from a Republican point

539
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 4: of view. Here, the gentleman from Nebraska will give us

540
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 4: his take on this. Still in town. Here a chance.

541
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 4: There was a piece of legislation that emerged in the

542
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 4: House yesterday. Democrat Rosa Dolora put forth that would essentially

543
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 4: take ICE away from the other agencies, separate it from

544
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 4: everything else under DHS. That includes the agencies we've been

545
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 4: talking about, FEMA, the Coastguard, the TSA.

546
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 5: And handle ICE on its own.

547
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 4: Knowing that ICE was well funded in the Big Beautiful bill.

548
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 5: Wouldn't that solve this right now?

549
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 4: We asked a member of the Democratic leadership share of

550
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 4: the Democratic Caucus in the House, Pete Aguilar.

551
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 15: Here's what he said, ICE and CBP and the Secretary's Office,

552
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,479
Speaker 15: we have huge concerns about their leadership, about the direction,

553
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 15: and about their continuous terrorizing of our communities. And that's

554
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 15: something that we should continue to have disagreements about and

555
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 15: work through and fur Republican colleagues meet with us about that,

556
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 15: then that's something we can talk about.

557
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 6: But that doesn't mean.

558
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 15: That we should have these other entities within government a

559
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 15: lapse in funding. Rosen Dolor put out a bill that

560
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 15: would do just that. I haven't heard anything from our

561
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 15: Republican colleagues about it.

562
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: Well, so let's ask one of his Republican colleagues. Republican

563
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 2: Congress and Mike Flood of Nebraska's here with us in

564
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: our Washington, d C studio on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressman,

565
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: good to see you, as always when we consider this notion,

566
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: and obviously it probably is too late for today, as

567
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 2: you've taken your last votes before recess, could this be

568
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: the solution upon your return?

569
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 16: Well, for the record, if they passed something, I'm still

570
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 16: in Washington, I could be there. I could be the

571
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 16: first vote for that, because I knew I was coming

572
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 16: on here. But hey, we've already done this once since

573
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 16: the House, we've passed all twelve bills we funded DHS.

574
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 16: The one big beautiful bill funded DHS. That's the big

575
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 16: fallacy here is that Democrats have sold their base on

576
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 16: the fact that they are holding the line on ICE.

577
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 16: ICE is funded until twenty twenty nine. What's not funded

578
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 16: when this goes down is TSA Coast Guard, you know,

579
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 16: the folks that work at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

580
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 16: That's why you see ranking members Rosa Delora doing some

581
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 16: fancy footwork to kind of carve it out and put

582
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 16: it somewhere else. Listen, if we're up to them, there

583
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 16: would be very limited, if any immigration enforcement at all.

584
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 16: So let's not think that this is a play that

585
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 16: is rooted in any kind of little strategy. It's just

586
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 16: to show their base. Hey, we don't support what ICE

587
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 16: is doing. So here we go again. I guess this

588
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 16: will be well twelve oh one am Saturday. I guess

589
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 16: the question is for how long TSA will start missing paychecks?

590
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 5: I believe the beginning of March.

591
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 4: Is that kind of your expectation, that's the pressure point

592
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 4: that ends the standoff?

593
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 16: I think it usually does. Sadly, I think this could

594
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 16: go for a while.

595
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 5: Yeah.

596
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 16: The Democrats, you know, their base wants them to be

597
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 16: very tough, very out there. You see Gavin news Newsom

598
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 16: using the F bomb, you know, when he's challenging in

599
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 16: other states, governor. That's the attitude over there, and that's

600
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 16: what we see in our communities. The Democrats, their base,

601
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 16: they are very invested in protesting. I fear this could

602
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 16: go for a while. It's not going to impede or

603
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 16: impair ICE enforcement. It's really just going to hurt the tsagents,

604
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 16: the FEMA folks, and the Coast Guard.

605
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: When we consider ice enforcement.

606
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: Though in the announcement we got from the Borders are

607
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 2: Tom Homan that those operations, at least in Operation Metro

608
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 2: Surge in Minnesota are going to be now unwound. Do

609
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: you see that pullback as the right move in a

610
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 2: moment where things got incredibly hot.

611
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 16: I do, and I think Tom Holman and Governor Wallas

612
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 16: deserve a lot of credit for that. And in my opinion,

613
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 16: here's what happened. The state and the municipal law enforcement,

614
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 16: under the direction of the governor and the mayor, decided

615
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 16: to be more cooperative with the federal enforcement under the

616
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 16: direction of in this case Tom Holman. Tom Holman said

617
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 16: a week before that second tragedy, he said, if you

618
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 16: just let us into your jails, into the county jails,

619
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 16: into the state prisons, we can be out of here.

620
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 5: And we can do what we need to do and

621
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 5: move on.

622
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 16: You go into a secure detention facility, you find somebody

623
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 16: here who's been here illegally, you take them at a custody,

624
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 16: you run through the administrative process. That's what's happening dates

625
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 16: across the country. That's why there's no violence in the

626
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 16: streets in the city of Lincoln or Omah and Nebraska

627
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 16: because our city and state police they understand that there's

628
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 16: one team for law enforcement. Doesn't mean that they're out

629
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 16: enforcing the laws, but they are providing seam security to

630
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 16: make sure if a warrant is being served, that it's

631
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 16: being done so everybody's protected, including the person the warrants for.

632
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 16: I just want to mention Congressman that President Trump and

633
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 16: his EPA chief Lezelden are making their announcement on greenhouse

634
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 16: gases right now. If they come to take questions, we'll

635
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 16: put an ear on that. And I'm both to interrupt

636
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 16: this conversation because we've been looking forward to it.

637
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 5: I want to ask you about tariffs.

638
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 4: In this vote that we saw yesterday six I believe

639
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: Republicans voted with Democrats to check the president on tariffs

640
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 4: in Canada. Now that this threshold has come down, Democrats

641
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 4: are promising a series of votes on different countries. What's

642
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 4: going to happen, if anything, to the tariff regimers. This

643
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: is just a matter of putting Republicans on the record.

644
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 4: I think this is not a law making exercise. Three

645
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 4: things here.

646
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 16: Number One, we're going to hear from the Supreme Court

647
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 16: at some point in the first half of this year,

648
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 16: is to where they're at on tariffs that could substantially

649
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 16: change the landscape in a very meaningful.

650
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 5: Long term way.

651
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 16: Number Two, the President is negotiating the USMCA, and we

652
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 16: have to give him the negotiating power to do what

653
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 16: he has done with tariffs to get us the same

654
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 16: or better deals that he's gotten for us in the past.

655
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 16: And number three, this is not a law making exercise.

656
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 16: Six Republicans isn't anywhere near enough to overcome a presidential veto.

657
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 16: And so while I get you put your name on

658
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 16: the record and all this stuff, all you're doing is

659
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 16: hurting the hand that the president is playing. And by

660
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 16: the way, he's used tariffs before. We'll have a long

661
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 16: conversation about tariff's use in the future. But got to

662
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 16: look at where we're at and be practical, and you've

663
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 16: got to think two steps down the road, why are

664
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 16: we trying to handcuff him when he's not going to

665
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 16: be handguffed or I mean, it's not even going to work.

666
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 5: So you vote against all of these.

667
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 16: I did vote against the one yesterday, obviously, and I

668
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 16: will continue to like I actually think the Supreme Court

669
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 16: is going to answer this question.

670
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: We're all waiting for it.

671
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 16: We're going to live with whatever whatever happens there, and

672
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 16: we're going to have an opportunity as a Congress to

673
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 16: say what should the tariff policy be?

674
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 5: But until then, we're on a path.

675
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 16: Don't tie the president's hands on his ability to negotiate

676
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 16: with Canada and Mexico.

677
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: Well, when we consider the role of the president in

678
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 2: all of this, with the point you just made that

679
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 2: six may not be enough to override a presidential veto

680
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,919
Speaker 2: six is enough with this current majority to make sure

681
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: nothing can pass on the House floor. If you're Speaker

682
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, and knowing how fragile and narrow that majority

683
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: already is, is it not a mistake for the president

684
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 2: to be threatening members who vote against him and suggest

685
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 2: that they should not be holding their positions. Does that

686
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 2: not create a problem for those who are seeking reelection,

687
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: like your colleague Congressman for Datrick.

688
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 16: We're talking about Donald Trump, right, the same guy we've

689
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 16: done for ten years. His calculus is different than everybody

690
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 16: else is. So I was not surprising the least about that. Hey, listen,

691
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,479
Speaker 16: this was a very specific issue Tariff's, and I would

692
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 16: argue that even some of those folks that voted to

693
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 16: unlock this barrier would even probably at some point say hey,

694
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 16: maybe we should go back and put the cap back

695
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 16: on from stopping these from coming to the floor. It's

696
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 16: an issue by issue basis in the House, obviously, and

697
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 16: we have been united on far more this Congress than

698
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,919
Speaker 16: anybody thought we could get done. The one big beautiful bill,

699
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 16: I mean that alone, the fact that we passed twelve

700
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 16: appropriations bills for the first time in over a decade

701
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 16: to fund the government in regular order. It wasn't a

702
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 16: backroom deal with the Speaker and the Minority leader and

703
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 16: the Senate leader and this DEM leader.

704
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 5: It was done with all of us.

705
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 16: So we have a record of getting things done in

706
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 16: a tight majority.

707
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 2: This was a one off, Guests, But as the midterms

708
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: get closer for moderates specifically, is that not going to

709
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 2: get harder to do to get to two hundred and

710
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 2: seventeen when some of these votes are going to be

711
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 2: very politically tricky for these numbers.

712
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 16: Yes, yes, this is like a Rubics cube that's almost

713
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 16: impossible to solve. In any given day, we do unite

714
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 16: around a vision for the future of American By the way,

715
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 16: we had one hundred and thirty thousand jobs announced today.

716
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 16: People don't know this, but the average tax return for

717
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 16: the average American is increasing fifteen point four percent this

718
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 16: year because of the One Big Beautiful Bill. We are

719
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 16: entering an era of economic growth. The results will speak

720
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 16: for themselves. The American people are going to see where

721
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 16: this economy is going. The American people are going to

722
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 16: see GDP growth that was unthinkable under President Biden, and

723
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 16: they will be better off by the time it comes

724
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 16: to decide who should be their Congressman.

725
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 4: Well to talk to you as a member of the

726
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 4: Financial Services Committee, because there's a discussion today on Capitol

727
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 4: Hill about what your colleagues and the other chambers should

728
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 4: do with a new FED share in the confirmation process.

729
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 4: Tom Tillis has of course promised to block that until

730
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: the DOJ investigation into Jpowell is resolved. This idea, though,

731
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 4: was floated that DOJ and its investigation Senate Banking pick

732
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 4: it up and do their own work here and proceed

733
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 4: with the confirmation. Tilla says he's not in favor of that.

734
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: Do you think, though, that that would be a good approach?

735
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 16: It seemed reasonable, Yeah, I mean I am somebody that

736
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 16: values reasonable solutions to tough problems, and in that way

737
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 16: both sides kind of get what they want.

738
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 5: We can move forward with the new FED chair.

739
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 16: I am confident that the Senate will arrive finally confirming someone.

740
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 16: This is a very very important spot for our nation,

741
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 16: and some of the names that have been kind of

742
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 16: floated out there are very impressive. So we are going

743
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 16: a good direction.

744
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:35,879
Speaker 2: Well as we consider this notion of compromise and specifically

745
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 2: areas in which you're focused not just with your seat

746
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 2: on the Financial Services Committee, but on the Housing and

747
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 2: Insurance Subcommittee as well. Housing, for example, we saw a

748
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 2: big bipartisan vote on the twenty first Century Housing Act

749
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,959
Speaker 2: in the House. Unclear though, how as we talk about

750
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 2: Senate Banking that's going to match up with the road

751
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 2: effort in the Senate, are you having conversations with your colleague.

752
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 16: Well, I can say I wrote most of that bill,

753
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 16: and I've been working with my Democratic colleague for fifteen

754
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,959
Speaker 16: months to do it. Three hundred and ninety votes nine

755
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 16: no votes. I mean that is something to celebrate. Unfortunately,

756
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,280
Speaker 16: doesn't make the news anywhere on an issue that matters housing.

757
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 16: The good news is in the Senate they have a

758
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 16: near unanimous bill that they've moved to the floor and

759
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 16: tried to pass before. And you've got the President who

760
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 16: has ideas about housing. So here we have House Republicans

761
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 16: and Democrats, Senate House Republicans and Democrats, and the President

762
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 16: all say in housing as a priority. If we can't

763
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 16: find a deal among those three entities, there's not a

764
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 16: deal to be had. So I'm actually an optimist. I

765
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 16: think that the fact that the Senate has its road

766
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 16: to housing means we are going to have a sit

767
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 16: down about how this can work and listen, a compromise

768
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 16: means we accept some things that we might otherwise do.

769
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 16: They do the same, and the President does the same.

770
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 4: Even if you passed it today, how long would it

771
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 4: take to start breaking.

772
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 5: Ground on new homes?

773
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 4: This has become such a massive inventory problem well, and

774
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 4: a red tape. Not many people know this outside of

775
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 4: the bill we passed during last July. With the One

776
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 4: Big Beautiful Bill, we greatly expanded the use of low

777
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: income affordable home tax credits. That program, aside from anything

778
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 4: I've worked on, is the gold standard for creating affordable

779
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 4: housing in America. It will contribute to another one point

780
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 4: two to one point three homes in America. And these

781
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 4: are developers that know how to do it, and they

782
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 4: work in concert with a bunch of other programs in

783
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 4: the States.

784
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 5: So we are already.

785
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 16: Well in our way to addressing what is anywhere from

786
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 16: a three point eighty five to a five million unit shortage,

787
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 16: just with the One Big Beautiful Bill. And then you

788
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 16: come in with what we worked on in the House,

789
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 16: and you remove a lot of the well intentioned but

790
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 16: real barriers to building. You give cities more latitude, you

791
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 16: get states with more authority. I think we could see

792
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 16: an unlocking of the housing market from a building perspective,

793
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 16: given the fact that the government plays pretty large there.

794
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 4: Do you share the President's concerned that lowering housing prices

795
00:39:56,040 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 4: could simultaneously raid people's nest egg and become a other

796
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 4: affordability problem. Well, this is certainly to be said that

797
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 4: most people's number one asset is their home. Yeah, you know,

798
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 4: I don't have any interest in seeing that go down,

799
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 4: but you have a five million unit shortage. One of

800
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 4: the great things that we did with this bill this

801
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 4: week is that we it basically said to the manufactured

802
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 4: home builder, you do not have to put a chassis

803
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 4: in your house. These are stick build homes that end

804
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 4: up getting put on a foundation. The chassis does nothing

805
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 4: and cause another twenty five thousand dollars in cost. And

806
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 4: what we need our homes across America that you can

807
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 4: get into for two hundred and twenty five thousand or

808
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty thousand. A new stick built home

809
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 4: in Columbus, Nebraska, not pre manufactured four hundred and fifteen thousand.

810
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 4: That's not affordable to a family of two, no matter

811
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 4: the overtime they're working. Really interesting, real conversation. Congressman Mike Flood,

812
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 4: Republican from Nebraska Financial Services Committee, Stay with us.

813
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 11: On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up

814
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 11: after this.

815
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

816
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

817
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

818
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,359
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

819
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

820
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 5: Thanks for being here on Bloomberg Radio.

821
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 4: I suggest you dial up YouTube right now unless you're

822
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 4: already watching us on Bloomberg Originals. Because it's an important

823
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 4: day here in the Bureau of the Annual Chili Cookoff.

824
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 5: We're smack dab right in the middle of.

825
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 4: The United States Congress and the White House here, and

826
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 4: we're going to find some bipartisanship. I guess when it

827
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 4: comes to the chili. Edward Harrison is going to help

828
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 4: me out with this, because we wanted to get down

829
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 4: to risk today. Right, we've been talking about some pretty

830
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 4: important economic data. We had a weird jobs Wednesday, we've

831
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 4: got jobless claims today, and then we've got obviously CPI,

832
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 4: well I shouldn't say obvious. This is all jammed up

833
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 4: because of the government shutdown. So they're falling on weird

834
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 4: days and the market's not sure what to do because

835
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 4: there's a lot of conflicting data. So we thought we

836
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 4: would bring Edward Harrison in while we also if you're

837
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 4: on YouTube now, good job, because we've got our chili

838
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 4: cam set up here and now there are Edward. Great

839
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 4: to see it. There are ten chilies I guess here

840
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 4: that there have been. Okay, so we got three. We're

841
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 4: going to do a blind tasting.

842
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 5: Let me just give you a spoon here.

843
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 4: Excellent, and we'll try to make this work for everybody

844
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 4: on the radio as well, because there is one of

845
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 4: these chilies there and now if you're just listening, this

846
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 4: is a blind tasting. They're not labeled. Okay, we're not

847
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 4: sure exactly what we're having. One of these, though, is

848
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 4: Tony's Chili that won last year and it's called the

849
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 4: Balance of Pepper's.

850
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 5: Edward, so here, why don't you get us rolling on

851
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 5: one of these.

852
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 4: I'm going to start this one and let's just see

853
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 4: if we have a winner in the works. It's been

854
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 4: pretty cold out. I mean it's good chili weather. Obviously,

855
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 4: this is.

856
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 5: Wow, not bad. I hope that's Tony's here trip.

857
00:42:58,160 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 4: Some of the other names that we have here, by

858
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 4: the way, everybody's super clever. We have k Street Heat,

859
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 4: we have the green Bee, Honey, I brought the heat

860
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 4: chili Chili bang bang. But again the balance of Peppers

861
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 4: is looking for another win. Here we go, Thank you, Edward.

862
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 4: If we don't get fired today, it'll never happen. There's

863
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 4: a nice shot for us here on YouTube.

864
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 5: Everybody. Well, that's really good too. That's yeah.

865
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 17: I think that was the one, the darker one.

866
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 5: I think there's sausage going on in there.

867
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 4: Okay, wow, all right, I'm going this is my winner here,

868
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,399
Speaker 4: you guys, tell us before this segment is over which

869
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 4: one that is, and we'll be good.

870
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 5: I don't even need lunch now. This is great.

871
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,760
Speaker 4: So now that we've taken care of that balance of peppers,

872
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 4: Tony wins again. Fantastic, good job Tony, the Balance of Peppers.

873
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 4: Everybody on Bloomberg Radio. This is a market that is

874
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 4: supposedly in the middle of this massive rotation that does

875
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 4: seem to care about tariffs, that doesn't know what to

876
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 4: do with economic data because it's arguing with itself. Is

877
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 4: that the definition of everything risk it is?

878
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 17: I mean today we have this rotation on no News.

879
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:18,879
Speaker 17: Really suddenly there was an air pocket. People de risk.

880
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 17: They got out of the riskiest assets. The Nasdaq was

881
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 17: down the most. We saw oil fall, we saw bitcoin fall,

882
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 17: silvers down a lot, So you know, there's a lot

883
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 17: of nervousness about where we are in this cycle, especially

884
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 17: because the AI theme is coming under pressure to a

885
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 17: degree because debt has entered the picture there, and so

886
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 17: people are looking at this economic data to find out

887
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 17: how should we think about the US economy at this junction.

888
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 4: Interesting, it's been really interesting watching this rotation occur with

889
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred kind of sitting in

890
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 4: one place, but a total reordering happening under the hood.

891
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 4: So we believe the rotation is real. Does it stick,

892
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 4: I guess is the question?

893
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 17: Yeah, I mean, I think it depends on how the

894
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 17: data come out in the future. Because if you look

895
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 17: at the AI trade, half of the companies that the

896
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 17: largest companies of megacap tech companies have actually traded down

897
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 17: over the last six months. We're talking about Meta, We're

898
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 17: talking about Microsoft Oracle in particular, and the other half

899
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 17: have traded off. So over the last six months, people

900
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 17: have already started to make that rotation to start to

901
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 17: discriminate between potential winners and potential losers. And now we're

902
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 17: seeing a wholesale sort of let's actually go beyond that

903
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 17: and move within sectors of the US economy.

904
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 4: Interesting, I've got a slow burn going here. I think

905
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 4: that was Tony's chilly. That's a nice heat. It's working

906
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 4: really well here at the lunch hour. Now, how are

907
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 4: you reading jobs data? We're going We're going to get

908
00:45:57,680 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 4: inflation tomorrow, as I mentioned, But we've got a jobs

909
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: yesterday and job less claims today where you can pick

910
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 4: your number. You can call it the Golden Age, like

911
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 4: the White House or the end of the world as

912
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 4: we know it. How are you interpreting this?

913
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 17: I'm looking at it as a relatively good market, but

914
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 17: one that's deteriorating. We lost a million jobs last year, right,

915
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 17: what if compared to the benchmark that we originally.

916
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 5: Had downward revisions where you or not? I think that scale?

917
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 17: I think that you know that is in line with

918
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 17: what we saw the previous year, and it was definitely known.

919
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 17: It shows that at this point in the cycle that

920
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,760
Speaker 17: as we should expect, the jobs are not as plentiful

921
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 17: in terms of the number of people who are being hired.

922
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 17: And when you look at sort of the immigration crackdown

923
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 17: as well, that's also going to have an.

924
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 5: Impact really interesting.

925
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 17: If you think about the end of last year, there

926
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 17: was all that angst about the numbers, especially because of

927
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 17: the shutdown over the holidays, that went away to a

928
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 17: degree you could say it's coming back. It's not that

929
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:04,240
Speaker 17: the economy is terrible. You know, the labor market's terrible.

930
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 17: It's just that it's it's weaker than we thought it was,

931
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 17: and that's having some residual negative impact on equities, but

932
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 17: it's having a positive impact on bonds.

933
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 4: As you write, the labor market is weak and enough

934
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 4: to expect ray cut expectations to move forward over the

935
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 4: coming weeks, or expectations the same as reality.

936
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 17: Yeah, I think that the question is is we have

937
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 17: the pal fed how are they setting themselves up for

938
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 17: the next bed chairman? Because Powell basically told us in

939
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 17: the last FORMC you know, we're happy with where things are.

940
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 5: We're gonna see how things.

941
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 17: Pan out in the exact same way that the markets

942
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 17: are looking and that means basically hold. And if you

943
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 17: look at how the market to price, it's like five

944
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 17: percent chance of a cut in March, twenty percent in April,

945
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 17: and it's only starting in June and July that we're

946
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 17: really on the table for that, But obviously if the

947
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 17: job numbers get worse, then that could move out substantially,

948
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:04,720
Speaker 17: all right.

949
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 5: So jury's out.

950
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 4: It sounds like there are a lot of people who

951
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 4: again are saying we're not going to get any cuts

952
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 4: the rest of the year.

953
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 17: Right, But I think that that's probably aggressive. It could

954
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 17: only happen if the jobs numbers stay as good as

955
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 17: they had been in the past. What I would say,

956
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 17: by the way, is is we all know here in

957
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 17: DC we had terrible weather that none of that was

958
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 17: in the numbers for January, got it. So the numbers

959
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 17: that we saw earlier this week, those numbers are not

960
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 17: reflective of where we are right now.

961
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 5: So snow crete will show up a month later. Definitely.

962
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 5: Could we talk about crypto?

963
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 4: I don't ask you a lot about bitcoin and so forth,

964
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 4: but man, this has been you want to talk about

965
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 4: the Everything risk newsletter here? You could have your own

966
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 4: special note on bitcoin alone. And we're back below seventy thousand.

967
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,359
Speaker 4: People don't know how to read the technicals and say

968
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 4: there are no fundamentals, so what do we do.

969
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 17: I think it's very much in line with this de

970
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,919
Speaker 17: risking trade that we're seeing, and if you look from

971
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,479
Speaker 17: day to day and you look at silver, you look

972
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 17: at bitcoin, what you look at the NASDAK. What you're

973
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 17: seeing is the most violable assets having the trading selling

974
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 17: off or going up, and in general they've gone down.

975
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 17: That is the most violatile Bitcoin, then silver, and then

976
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 17: to a certain degree, the NASDAC have taken the brunt

977
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 17: of this rotation that we're seeing.

978
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 5: Really something.

979
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 4: Look at this, it's just about to slip all of

980
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 4: sixty six up there just went. We've got a sixty

981
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 4: five handle on bitcoin down eighteen hundred dollars right now,

982
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 4: or two and a half percent.

983
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 5: So does this just trade with the NASDAK. Now.

984
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 4: The whole point I thought was that it was some

985
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 4: sort of decentralized idea that would protect you, as this

986
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 4: was a hedge on the market, right.

987
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 17: But I mean, it's just like with silver, when a

988
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 17: lot of people get into that trade, then the momentum

989
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 17: of that trade causes a lot of speculation that needs

990
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,959
Speaker 17: to be unwound. If you were a pro bitcoin person,

991
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 17: you would say, Okay, we're unwinding that speculation and we're

992
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 17: going to hit a floor. But today's price action tells

993
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 17: you that's not necessarily the case, you have two things.

994
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 5: One, you have the.

995
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 17: Fact that miners are not going to be able to

996
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 17: make money at levels close to where we are now.

997
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 17: And secondly, one of the biggest holders that strategy, Michael

998
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 17: Sailor's company, they're below water. They're ten thousand below where

999
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 17: they need to be in order to be broken.

1000
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:32,479
Speaker 4: Right, He's got to seventy six thousand dollars a cost

1001
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,800
Speaker 4: basis right right, and he's still buying Edward.

1002
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 17: He's not behide And that's a sign we've gotten to

1003
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 17: a level now where there's no extra bid, no one

1004
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 17: when none of these these bitcoin treasury companies are going

1005
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 17: to get in there and take on that risk when

1006
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 17: the price action the momentum is in the opposite direction.

1007
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,919
Speaker 17: So you could say that that's actually that adds an

1008
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 17: extra flavor of negative momentum there.

1009
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 5: Really amazing.

1010
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 4: He's going to have a pretty serious margin call at

1011
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 4: some point here. That debt is a big deal for Strategy.

1012
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 4: There are very few people, maybe none at Bloomberg who

1013
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 4: have your global view of the markets. We just went

1014
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 4: through economic data, We touched the bond market, we hit

1015
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 4: fed funds. You're talking about the rotation out of tech crypto. Edward,

1016
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,800
Speaker 4: what we'll have your focus now that we're coming around

1017
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 4: the back end of earning season to give us either

1018
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 4: our next leg up or down or correction or another

1019
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 4: rally in the weeks ahead.

1020
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 17: I think the tax cuts the question is is how

1021
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 17: stimulative can they be because at this point we're looking

1022
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 17: at two things. We're looking at AI investment and we're

1023
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 17: looking at government deficits as being overwhelming everything else. No

1024
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 17: matter how bad things get. That's a huge boost to

1025
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 17: the economy. And we're at this inflection point where people

1026
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 17: are starting to worry about the employment market. If you

1027
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 17: get that extra boost from the tax cuts, perhaps that

1028
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:06,280
Speaker 17: can also be overcome. And I would say that given

1029
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 17: where we are, we've seen twelve percent a year on

1030
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 17: your growth in EPs earnings for this last quarter, that's

1031
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,839
Speaker 17: a good number and if you take that forward, you

1032
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 17: can still hit new highs on the SMP.

1033
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 4: Fantastic, Edward, This is great one of the smartest minds

1034
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 4: we have in our bureau.

1035
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 5: And we'll shake hands too.

1036
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 4: Edward Harrison, the Everything Risk newsletter and a Connos sort

1037
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 4: of chili balance of peppers is our winner, right, Thanks

1038
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 4: for helping me do this. I'm going to get a

1039
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 4: napkin and some water. Why from Washington. This is Balance

1040
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:48,880
Speaker 4: of Peppers only on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for listening to

1041
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

1042
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 4: you haven't already, Apple, Spotify.

1043
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 11: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1044
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 11: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time

1045
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 11: stud at Bloomberg dot com.