Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Singast IDEA short Sweet, What a great list today, Jeffer
Speaker 2: you extended conversation, Greg Peters from Pigum, extended conversation Adam Posen,
Speaker 2: We got him in there around Ted Pick of Morgan
Speaker 2: Stanley with John and Lisa out at Davos. Just a
Speaker 2: really terrific set of conversations. Jeff for you was just
Speaker 2: brilliant on the asymmetry of a pair. Now, in the
Speaker 2: equity market, it can be where's the bid, where's the ass?
Speaker 2: As a pro you never forget the bid in the ask,
Speaker 2: and they can move separately. It's like time stands still
Speaker 2: the phrases, the bid walks away, the stock starts going down,
Speaker 2: and your stomach turns over. In the currency market, it's
Speaker 2: a pair a euro dollar. Does a dollar go up
Speaker 2: in a strong dollar or is it a week euro?
Speaker 2: Is it a week euro? Brilliant Jeffrey you of B
Speaker 2: and Y on asymmetry.
Speaker 3: I'm going to qualify something Tom said earlier that Trump
Speaker 3: needs a weeker dollar. I'll say two things. Firstly, Trump
Speaker 3: doesn't need a week of dollar. Trump needs other currencies
Speaker 3: to strengthen. And secondly, if Trump needs a week of dollar.
Speaker 3: He needs a weeker dollar in real terms, which also
Speaker 3: means that other currencies other countries, especially China and Europe,
Speaker 3: need to reflate better in a sustained fashion, in a
Speaker 3: healthy manner. So those are the two things. And then yeah,
Speaker 3: those are probably out of his control because that relies
Speaker 3: on policies elsewhere.
Speaker 2: Reflates a really loaded phrase there. There's different types of inflation.
Speaker 2: There's inflation as you know it. We live it every day.
Speaker 2: Our team is apoplectic about the price of eggs out there.
Speaker 2: There is disinflation DS disinflation, which is a lesser inflation,
Speaker 2: and then there's outright deflation de deflation. Gary Shilling with
Speaker 2: an iconic book on that, easy to read book on it,
Speaker 2: where prices actually go down, and there's different kinds of deflation.
Speaker 2: England has a heritage with us as many other societies.
Speaker 2: Worry in China right now about deflation. Reflation are Reflation
Speaker 2: is really undescribed. Reflation is some form of goofy process
Speaker 2: to reflate, to push up, to goose up an economy.
Speaker 2: And Jeffery you later in the interview, talked about they
Speaker 2: have to go to their fiscal space they've got to
Speaker 2: reflate through a sound, somewhat normal fiscal policy. Somewhat normal always,
Speaker 2: Sarah Wolf at Morgan Stanley just brilliant. Ted Pick was
Speaker 2: on from Davos. How do you think Ted Pick is
Speaker 2: so smart? He reads Sarah Wolf in Morgan Stanley Economics.
Speaker 2: Sarah Wolf on the topic at Davos tariffs.
Speaker 4: It's a study of magnitude, and it's a study of timing.
Speaker 5: If we look back to the exis the X axis.
Speaker 4: Of course, if we look back to the twenty eighteen
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen tariffs, and you read the transcripts among the
Speaker 4: FMC participants, they were broadly looking through the tariffs right
Speaker 4: that it was a one off price effect, that it
Speaker 4: wasn't going to be inflationary for the longer run, and
Speaker 4: they were more worried about the following hit to growth
Speaker 4: after the tariffs.
Speaker 5: Can we do the same.
Speaker 4: Thing this time?
Speaker 5: Not necessarily, it's a little bit more complicated. If we're
Speaker 5: phasing in tariffs over the course of this year, it's
Speaker 5: going to be a lot more difficult to discern the
Speaker 5: effects of tariffs versus the effects of just real inflation.
Speaker 5: It's also going to be a price level increase that's
Speaker 5: occurring over a longer period of time than normal, So
Speaker 5: it's going to be more inflationary than what we saw
Speaker 5: back in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, and so the Fed
Speaker 5: might be in a position where they're going to have
Speaker 5: to take cuts off if that's the case, or not
Speaker 5: cut at all and kind of be on whole until
Speaker 5: they see all the tears play out and what it
Speaker 5: means for economic activity.
Speaker 2: Sir well, Thematic Investing in Economics at Morgan Stanley just
Speaker 2: a great, great lineup today. We're really starting twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five strong. We're on your commute across the nation. Major
Speaker 2: shot out the ninety nine one FM in Washington all
Speaker 2: the way up to Fridgid, New England ninety two nine FM.
Speaker 2: I guess the cold is breaking across at the nation,
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