1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. I'm gonna talk with 7 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 1: someone who has to listen quite a bit to the 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: investment officers around the world, Neil Dwayne, global strategist for 9 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: Alian's Global Investors. Also he in addition to talking with 10 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: all of the asset managers around the world for Alians, 11 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: he also manages one point five billion euros in in 12 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: several funds. Neil, I am so glad you could join us. 13 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: I want to start with the idea that we're hearing 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: about all of this political warfare going on in the 15 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: United States, We're hearing about Brexit, We're hearing about what's 16 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: going on the French elections. At what point do you 17 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: care when it comes to managing money. Well, firstly, thank 18 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: you for the invitation to be here. I think when 19 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: one's managing clients money, one has to invest rather than 20 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 1: what I would call trade. If you try to respond 21 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: to every headline or every tweet, I think you would 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: simply destroy the alpha that your clients are are going 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: to receive. But that's that's an important point. So what's 24 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: an investment and what's a trade? What's an investment you like? 25 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: And what's a trade that my people are going into. 26 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: That's that's not sustainable for you? Okay, well, well, just 27 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: for me, investing is like a rolling three of you. 28 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: I'm genuinely trying to get the benefits of companies that 29 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: are compounding their returns and generating the investments. So a trade, 30 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: I like his energy. We think from the risks in 31 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: the Middle East through to the low oil price that 32 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: there's a supply demand imbalance which we think will work 33 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: to energy grinding higher from here. Therefore, because of the 34 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: risks in the of the geopolitics, I like the big 35 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: UK or US high dividend stocks yielding seven percent you're 36 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: getting paid to run with them. I think that's a 37 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: that's a trade, but also an investment on a two 38 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: to three year horizon. Whereas something I'm may be more 39 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: concerned about is the growth in China last year was phenomenal. 40 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: They went back to the old school fiscal stimulus. Unlike 41 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: President Trump, who may spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure 42 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: over ten years, we estimate they spent a trillion dollars 43 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: last year on their infrastructure. So commodities have boomed. We 44 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: think that's a misalignment of the recognition of the underlying 45 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: strength of the economy. It's also a misalignment of how 46 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: much stimulus Trump may deliver. The US consumes four percent 47 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 1: of global copper, China consumes seventy so even if Trump 48 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: really gets stuck in over the next ten years, it's 49 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: not going to matter to global copper demand. So we 50 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: think maybe the miners have traveled too far, and therefore 51 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: we would trade out of them. If you, if you 52 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: own them, trade out of the miners right now and 53 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: wait for another entry point. I would say the cycle 54 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: hasn't finished. China's China's um. You know, rebalancing is going 55 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: to change, and until you see serious infrastructure spending in 56 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: countries like India and Indonesia, we don't see the underlying 57 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: demand for for some of these classic commodities. Right. But 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: do you said you were your energy sector that did 59 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 1: you did you were bullish on the energy sector. Why 60 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 1: why that's like disconnect energy versus commodities. Well, because everyone 61 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: needs you, particularly given the success in in China, and 62 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: also everyone owns a car. The Americans have all traded 63 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: up to larger cars rather than smaller cars. So the 64 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: underlying demand for energy is still going to be there. 65 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: It's very resilient. About ninety eight million barons of Alliday. 66 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: You know, Neil, as you said, President Trump is expecting 67 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: to spend about a trillion dollars on infrastructure in the 68 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: US over the next ten years. There is so much 69 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: focus on fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. How do you 70 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: as an investor get in on that. Well, the first 71 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: thing I would say is infrastructure spending takes a very 72 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: very long time. Um So even if as we discover 73 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: with the the the baron like Obama stimulus in two 74 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: thousand and eight. He spent a trillion dollars, but most 75 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: of it went to the States and they put it 76 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: in their health in their pension funds. So in the 77 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: end there weren't many roads or railways built. So we 78 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: think it's a very long term, long tail investment, and 79 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: it works better in emerging markets than in developed markets. 80 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: We think the payback in developed markets is very slow. 81 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: Can you imagine if you built a faster road to JFK, 82 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: you'd have to shut the roads to JFK first to 83 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: build the new road. So the disruption in developed markets 84 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: of infrastructure is quite high, Whereas if you don't have 85 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: a road in Vietnam and you build a road, you 86 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: immediately get the efficiencies of the spending. So we think 87 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: infrastructure is useful, but it's it doesn't step change the 88 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: growth rate of the underlying economy. But is there a 89 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: way that you can invest in companies that will benefit 90 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: from the spending programs by investing in those you know, 91 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: infrastructure plans somehow or is that sort of too esoteric? Well, 92 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: I think at the company level, I think the markets 93 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: have already run on the basis that the trillion dollars 94 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: is about to be spent. So we think that that 95 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: you know that the expectations in the markets are way 96 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: ahead of where the actual spending is going to come from. 97 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: So I would say from a strategic long term institutional 98 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: client investor, accessing the stable cash flows of many of 99 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: the rose rails or ports that you can do inside 100 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: infrastructure debt type structures makes a lot of sense as 101 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: a way of generating a stable but relatively high yield 102 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: six or seven percent return, but it's not. I think 103 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: we underestimate because America or the UK are built. We 104 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: underestimate how disruptive big infrastructure projects are, and the fact 105 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: that it takes a long time before you earn the 106 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: returns right well now and also very interesting, a long 107 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: time before you get to realize the political glory for 108 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 1: having done so. Thank you very much, sir, and Neil 109 00:05:45,080 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: Dwayne is a global strategist for Alliance Global Investors are 110 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: here to help us get a little smarter when it 111 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: comes to the automobile industry. Is John Lippert. Here's our 112 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: automotive reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us from our 113 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: Chicago bureau and you can follow him on Twitter at 114 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: John M. Lippert with two piece. All right, John with 115 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: two piece. Let's get some business out of the way. 116 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: In terms of the January report for automobile sales, I 117 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: was just racking them up here, some better, some worse. 118 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: But you're over your results. No one is is defying 119 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: any major trends. Correct. Well, that's right. There'll there'll be 120 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: some softening of the overall market, but not not anything 121 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: like a disaster. So so what we're saying is we're 122 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: looking at a seventeen point three million annual i's selling 123 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: where and that will be down from seventeen point nine 124 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: a year ago. So all the auto companies are saying, Look, 125 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: if there's gonna be cooling off, that's a cooling off 126 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: we can live with. Yeah, And we got actually some 127 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: results from ALI Financial yesterday that seems to suggest that 128 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: even though there is sort of a plateau ng in 129 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: the auto industry, at least with respect to auto loans, 130 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: that the that the credit quality isn't deteriorating as quickly 131 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: as some had feared. Well that's right, and UM, and 132 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: now we're all trying to figure out sort of you know, 133 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: the Trump you know, UM enthusiasm, just how deep root 134 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: it is. So UM December was an absolute blowout for 135 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: UM for the auto industry eighteen point four million, and 136 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: so now and a lot of that was just sort 137 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: of a year end um uh closeouts. But but but now, 138 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: I mean there is going to be some softening and 139 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: so among the many factors are gonna be looking at. 140 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: But yes, and centives are creeping up. Yes, inventories are 141 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: creeping up, but none of its disasters. And as you say, 142 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: you know the credit quality that we're all you know, 143 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: sub prime loans, I mean, they're creeping up, but they're 144 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: not soaring at least so far. And then you know, 145 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: in terms of just January, you know, um uh Toto 146 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: is down, FIA, Christier down, but then Honda's up five 147 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: point nine, Nissands up six. So it is a little 148 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: bit of a mixed bag. But but so far that 149 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: you know, the markets holding up pretty well. Which companies 150 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: stand to benefit the most from some of the trade policies, 151 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: at least from what we can glean from them from 152 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: President Trump's administration. Well, just taking the border tax UM 153 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: and these are all sort of crude measures because we're 154 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: we're all trying to figure out what the border tax, 155 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: you know, in what form it will actually emerge on 156 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: the Congress. But if you just take the question of UM, 157 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: what companies have what percent of um U s sales 158 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: that they're importing, there are some clearer differences. So um 159 00:08:55,640 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: of forward UM only imports ford, you know, of what 160 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: they sell UH in the United States is built in 161 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 1: the United States, and and some companies like you know, 162 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: Masda's you know, just to take one example, has zero. 163 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: So obviously the you know four and four it is 164 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: actually saying, we think we can live with this, you know, 165 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 1: with the border tax as we understand it so far. 166 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: And and then the import companies like Masda are saying this, 167 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 1: this is a terrible idea. And and sort of in 168 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: the middle of there, there's Toyota. I mean, Toyota is 169 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: coming out pretty strong, and he's saying, even the American 170 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: made camera that has the most US content in any car, actually, 171 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: uh that the border tax will drive the cost of 172 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: that car up by a thousand hours. And and they're 173 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: saying that, Uh, Toyota is saying, um, you know, consumers 174 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: are just not going to accept that, and that that 175 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: will hurt sales and hurt employment. So there's gonna be 176 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a big fight about what exact actually 177 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 1: all this is going to mean as as it goes 178 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: through the Congress. Can you give us a perspective about 179 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: Ford and the relationship that may have been forged between 180 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: Mark Fields, the chief executive, and the members of the 181 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 1: Trump administration. Well, I mean Ford, I mean, as as 182 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: I say, Ford is saying more than any of the 183 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: other automakers that we can live with this border tax. 184 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: There there vocal about saying um um um. We Ford 185 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 1: need relief from the the fuel economy and the mission 186 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: start that's at Barack Obama put in place, and um 187 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said he's going to do all that. 188 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: So that you know one thing about the border tax, 189 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: um um. And we can argue if it's going to 190 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: increase the price of cars and our people gonna um 191 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: accept that. But there's no question from from Berkley's analyst 192 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: Brian Johnson. And another is that the border tax will 193 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: on the margin, creating the center to put more factories 194 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,559 Speaker 1: in the United States as opposed to also were in NAPTA. 195 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: So um um. Mark Fields is saying that that the 196 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: overall business climate that they think will evolve under President 197 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 1: Trump is something that's going to be good for Ford. 198 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're they're pretty aggressive and saying that. 199 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: John Leppert, thank you so much for joining us automated 200 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: writer for Bloomberg talking about auto sales and what effect 201 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: the border tax may have on auto companies. Now we're 202 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: going to get a chance to look at what the 203 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: trade policies might look like and how an investor really 204 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: deals with that. I want to bring in Scott Clement's 205 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman's private wealth management, 206 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: and Scott, you know, we've talked a lot about some 207 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 1: of the policies. We haven't really solidified anything as of yet. 208 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: It's unclear what could get through Congress, what the actual 209 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: proposals will be. Scott, Are you advising clients to change 210 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: their allocations at this point based on what we know? No, 211 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: we haven't changed any allocations, partially because we're very long 212 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: term investors, partially because there's no real clarity on what 213 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: policies are likely to unfold. There's certainly been a lot 214 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: of suggestions, a lot of threats steven Um, but at 215 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: this stage, until we see something more concrete unfold, it's 216 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: very difficult to analyze and respond to it in a 217 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: responsible way. Well, Scott, given that context, let's say this continues, 218 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: Let's say that this is part and parcel for daily 219 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: operation of the government. What would you be counseling people 220 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: to do? Um Well. Within the equity market, we remain 221 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: positioned as we always have in pretty long equities for 222 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: the time being, we welcome the resurgence in corporate warnings. 223 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: That's the fuel for the equity market. We're watching with 224 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: great interest the rise in interest rates, and I think 225 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: at some point over the course of this year, as 226 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: the labor market continues to improve, and we got some 227 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: good data from a DP just this morning, interest rates 228 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: will continue to rise. That will give investors in fixed 229 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: income a chance to go back into the intermediate even 230 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: longer into the yield curve. We're not there yet, but 231 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: that tradeoff of risk in return is beginning to get 232 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: a little bit more appealing. Let me just mention that 233 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: a DP numbers were two two thousand, the estimate was 234 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: for a hundred and sixty thousand. Well, but Scott, so 235 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: what's the level at which you would say that that 236 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: you would recommend investors get back into fixed income. You know, 237 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: it's more of a process, Lisa than it is an event. 238 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 1: That The algorithm that we're using is as long as 239 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: you can earn a rate of return in traditional fixed 240 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: income that is higher than inflation. If you're talking about 241 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: taxable bonds higher than whatever fees you pay for a 242 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: muni bond fund or whatever, then the risk trade off 243 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: becomes a lot more interesting. You know, there's another moving 244 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: part there. Sorry, I was just gonna say so. In 245 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: other words, with a ten year treasury yield heading north 246 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: of two point five, we're getting there. We're getting here. 247 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: It's heading that way very quickly, very quickly. The other 248 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: interesting moving part to watch is that there have been 249 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: hints as part of the Trump tax proposals and also 250 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: the health tax proposals, that would limit the deductibility of 251 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: municipal income, which for higher tax bracket clients, would have 252 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: an implication for the appeal of those assets. And again, 253 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: it's one of those many things on which there are 254 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: no details yet, So we're playing it safe and waiting 255 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: watching seeing how this unfolds, because that could certainly change 256 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: the relative appeal of tax all wands versus municipal bonds, 257 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: even for investors in a higher income tax brackets. Do 258 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: you think that money outside the United States will flow 259 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 1: into the US in the form of investments or in 260 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: terms of maybe just any buying up debt. I think 261 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: we're seeing that already. Uh. You know, if you think 262 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: about the the central banks worldwide, the United States of 263 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: America is the only one it's actively trying to raise 264 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: interest rates. That has implications for currency strength, That has 265 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: implications for return on fixed incomes. So yes, I expect 266 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: the flows of funds into the United States to continue. Scott, 267 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: At what point will yields rise so high in the 268 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: US that it will endanger the stock rally? I think 269 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: we're a long way from that. The risk out there 270 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: is that the labor market improves so rapidly that wages 271 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: begin to accelerate rapidly. We're not there yet. This is 272 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: not a forecast. It's a risk, and the FED feels 273 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: like they have to accelerate their own response to that. 274 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: If the FED, for example, were to raise interest rates 275 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: four or five times this year instead of the three 276 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: that the market is expecting, that that would spook the 277 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: equity market. That would send the signal that maybe the 278 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: Fed's a little bit more worried about inflation, which hasn't 279 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: been a concern for a decade now. Uh, then the 280 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: market is I don't expect that to unfold, but it's 281 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: certainly a risk that we're keeping an eye on. Talking 282 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: about the FED, we're going to hear from them today 283 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: at the end of their two day meeting, and I'm 284 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: wondering how much you're looking for guidance with respect to 285 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: what process they'll follow to unwind their four point five 286 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: trillion dollar balance sheet, or if they'll start to do 287 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: that in the near future. I think if it is 288 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: the right word, because I don't think they have any 289 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: intent of doing so. There's nothing that requires them to 290 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: do so. I think the FED would rather restore more 291 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: normal monetary policy through the old fashioned tool of raising 292 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: the FED funds rate interest rates and leave the balance 293 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: sheet where it is at, as you said, roughly four 294 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars. There's something very important that 295 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: happened in two thousand and eight. The FED for the 296 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: first time has the ability to pay interest on bank reserves. 297 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: Hell at the FED. That's a tool they did not 298 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: have beforehand. So if they are concerned that commercial bank 299 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: lending might become inflationary, they have the ability to raise 300 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: interest rates on reserve and therefore restrain some of that lending. 301 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: It's a tool they've never used, but it's a tool 302 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: that would enable them to leave the balance sheet to 303 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: four and a half trillion dollars without having to actively 304 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: wind it back down. Tell us more about tax reform 305 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 1: in addition to your comments about income earned from municipal bonds. 306 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: Tell us more about tax reform and some implications. One 307 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: of the other things pen that we're watching very closely, 308 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: and again it's part of the Trump proposal, part of 309 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: the House proposal. The details are are sketchy still, but 310 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: one of the proposals would limit the ability of corporations 311 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 1: to deduct interest on corporate debt issuance. That might have 312 00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: the implication of lowering the desirability for rations to issue debt. 313 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 1: It might restrain the supply of corporate debt, and anytime 314 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 1: the supply is restrained, that has implications for for the 315 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: ability of investors to earn a better rate of return 316 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: on corporate debt. So we're watching. There's a lot of 317 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: moving parts that that we're watching very closely. Corporate tax reform, 318 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: on which there's been no progress whatsoever, does have a 319 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: real ability to affect the equity market for the better, 320 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: particularly repatriation tax, lowering the corporate statutory rate. These would 321 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: all be very beneficial for the equity market. Thanks very 322 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Scott Clemmens is the chief investment 323 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 1: strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman's private wealth management division. Giving 324 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: us a look into what or what you should not 325 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: be doing. Maybe just do nothing for a while. A 326 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: change at the Supreme Court, that's its future. And here 327 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: to help us understand what might happen is Kimberly Robinson 328 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 1: Supreme Court Reward for Bloomberg b n A. Kimberly, thank 329 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: you for being with us. Tell us. Who is the 330 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 1: Supreme Court nominee? Neil Gorsich, Well Neil Gorfis is a 331 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 1: long time federal Hellic Court judge who sits on the 332 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 1: tenth Circuit. He sits at Denver. He's pretty young, at 333 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 1: forty nine years old. He could make a big impact 334 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 1: um for a very long time to come. Um. You 335 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: know when cent uh, when the Senate is going to 336 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 1: consider his nomination. UM, they're going to be able to 337 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: check off a lot of the qualifications that we typically 338 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: think of with modern day justices. You know, he has 339 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: an Ivy League pedigree. He worked for the prestigious law firm, 340 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: he had did a s in the d O J 341 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: and he even clerked on the Supreme Court. UM, so 342 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: he's he's got kind of the traditional um qualifications that 343 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: you would mean. He has also a pretty strong conservative background. UM. 344 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: Which should get him support UM from Senate Republicans. But 345 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: he also something that UH Senate Democrats might like as well. 346 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: And UM that's that he's pushed back on the deference 347 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: that courts give to administrative agencies. That's something that could 348 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: look attractive to Senate Democrats UM in the Donald Trump era. Well, Kimberly, 349 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 1: we've already heard from some Democratic representatives saying that they're 350 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: going to vote against him. What measures could they take 351 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: to do that or is his nomination all but guaranteed 352 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: at this point. I do think that UH judge is 353 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: likely to get nominated, but there are some tools that 354 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: Senate Democrats could use. UM. Although Senate Denemocrats did get 355 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: rid of the silibuster for lower court nominees, they kept 356 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: it in place for the Supreme Court and so they 357 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 1: still could use the silibuster, and indeed, some Democrats have 358 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 1: said that they planned to do that. The danger in 359 00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: that is that Republicans could UH go nuclear themselves, as 360 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: it's called, and eliminate the filer buster UM for Supreme 361 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: Court nominees UM, something that really hasn't been thought of, 362 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: UM in in the history of these confirmation hearings. First 363 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: for Supreme Court justices. I wonder if you could just 364 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: speak a little bit about Utah Senator or In Hatch 365 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: and his role UM. You know, I I don't really 366 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: know a lot about what his role will be UM 367 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 1: in this confirmation process. Sorry, I can't really speak to that. 368 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 1: Can you then give us a little bit of an 369 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 1: idea of what's next for Neil Gorsage. Well, what will 370 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 1: be next is that he'll need to fill up some 371 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: paperwork that's been tripping out some of uh Donald Trump's 372 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 1: other nominees. But uh, pretty it is pretty straightforward for judges. Uh, 373 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: it's paperwork that he's already done to be confirmed. And 374 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: then we'll go through, uh likely in a couple of months, 375 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 1: some confirmation hearings where we're likely to hear questions about 376 00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: abortion and immigration, um and the lid is freedom. Well, Kimberly, 377 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: how much is the controversy over Neil Gorsich uh specific 378 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: to him and his views? And how much is residual 379 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: anger by the Democrats that Merritt Garland, Obama's nominee was 380 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: not confirmed. Well, I do think there's still a lot 381 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: of UM Democrats who are really smarting over the fact that, 382 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: you know, Senate Republicans didn't give President nominee uh even 383 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: a hearing. UH. And so I do think that there's 384 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: some initial sense that Senate Democrats might try to block 385 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 1: this nomination as sort of a payback. UM. But if 386 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 1: Senate Democrats are playing the long game, they'll need to 387 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: consider that the election looks pretty tough for Senate Democrats. 388 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: There are a lot of Democrats who are going to 389 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: be going up in elections in states that Trump won, 390 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: and so UM, it may be that the Senate Democrats 391 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: may be in the minority for a while. UM. And 392 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 1: you know, risking a filibuster and risking that that silibuster 393 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: could be eliminated could be something that puts some a 394 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 1: Democrats kind of on the back burner when it comes to, 395 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 1: at least in the near future. UM. Supreme Court nominees. Now, 396 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, of course, rules on a variety of topics. 397 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: Is there any understanding as to where Judge Gorsuch would 398 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: reside UH in business cases or in cases involving regulation 399 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: and the government. Well, there has been some indication in 400 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: those areas. UM. As far as business regulation, UM, we've 401 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: seen that, you know, he's pretty hostile to the idea 402 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: of using class actions of the way to get redressed 403 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: from businesses. UM. And actually he wrote a two thousand 404 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: and five article that seems to indicate that UM, he's 405 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: hostible to using the the courts out of the way 406 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: of getting civil rights litigation UM through as well. UM. 407 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: But on other issues, you know, we're not as clear. 408 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: Judge cors which hasn't had a chance to rule on abortion, 409 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: something that has been hugely important UM in this UH, 410 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 1: in this selection, UM, we do have some hints on 411 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: how he might rule, but UM, we don't know for sure. 412 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 1: I thank you. Asked also about how he might um 413 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: interact with agencies and regulation, and that would be really 414 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 1: a change UM there on the Supreme Court. There has 415 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 1: been some indication from some of the justices that they 416 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: want to change the way that courts look at these regulations, 417 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: that they want to give a harsher look to them 418 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,479 Speaker 1: and have a bigger role for the courts. UM. And 419 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: Neil Gorser's would join what is now a minority UM 420 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,479 Speaker 1: and could turn that into a majority. Kimberly Robinson's Supreme 421 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: Court reporter for Bloomberg b n A, speaking with us 422 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: from Arlington, Virginia, thank you so much for speaking with us, 423 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: and uh. The nominee Neil Gorci has not expressed his 424 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 1: opinions on the hot button legal issues like abortion and 425 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 1: same sex marriage. There's a lot of questions about what 426 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 1: the Democrats will be able to oppose. Thanks for listening 427 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. You can subscribe and 428 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform 429 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter 430 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 431 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 432 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio