WEBVTT - MIB Live (Replay) with Eugene Fama and David Booth

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<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Boomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This week. I was privileged to travel to the University

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<v Speaker 1>of Chicago to the Booth School of Business, where I

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<v Speaker 1>got to sit down with Eugene Fama, Nobel Laureate, Chicago

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<v Speaker 1>Booth School of Business UM, founder of the Efficient Market hypothesis,

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<v Speaker 1>creator of effectively the three, five and seven UH Fama

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<v Speaker 1>French factor model, basically the father of modern finance. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know how else to describe him, along with his

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<v Speaker 1>best student, David Booth, co founder of Dimensional Funds, the

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<v Speaker 1>person that the Booth School of Business is named after.

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<v Speaker 1>What can I tell you? I flew out to Chicago.

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<v Speaker 1>UH basically went to the Booth School of Business at

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<v Speaker 1>the University of Chicago where they were celebrating this relationship

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<v Speaker 1>that both Fama and Booth have had for literally fifty years.

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<v Speaker 1>I got to sit down with the two of them

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<v Speaker 1>for an hour in front of about five people in

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<v Speaker 1>the audience, including a lot of students from the Boost

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<v Speaker 1>School as well as other notables who were in attendance.

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<v Speaker 1>And Fama is notoriously press shy. He does not do

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<v Speaker 1>a whole lot of UM interviews with the media. This

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<v Speaker 1>was just a delight. I can't begin to say how

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<v Speaker 1>just awesome he was. He's a provocateur. He likes to

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<v Speaker 1>say things that are very much, um contrarian. He's a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit you know, if Farma was on Twitter, he

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<v Speaker 1>would be a troll. He loves to tweak people, especially

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<v Speaker 1>his buddy and fellow Nobel laureate Richard Taylor. Uh. He

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<v Speaker 1>was busting his jobs about behavioral finance, basically saying it's

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<v Speaker 1>all just pushed back to the efficient market hypothesis. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>David Booth, also very insightful, had a lot of things

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<v Speaker 1>to say. There's obviously a tremendous amount of respect at

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<v Speaker 1>between the two of these guys. I could babble about

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<v Speaker 1>my experience in Chicago for hours, but rather than do that,

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<v Speaker 1>why not just say my conversation with Eugene Vama and

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<v Speaker 1>David Booth. There is so much material to cover. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna keep this to about four hours. We'll take a

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<v Speaker 1>break for dinner, and then we'll finish up before midnight. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>So I really don't have to introduce either of these gentlemen,

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<v Speaker 1>but let me just put a little more flesh on

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<v Speaker 1>the bones of what what the Dean started with. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>Jean is best known for not only the efficient market hypothesis,

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<v Speaker 1>but his research on portfolio theory, asset pricing, the Fama

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<v Speaker 1>French factor models. He is recipient of the Nobel Prize

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<v Speaker 1>in in Economics, and I like the sentence that the

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<v Speaker 1>Nobel group used quote for stuff for his work showing

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<v Speaker 1>quote stock price movements are impossible to predict in the

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<v Speaker 1>short term and that new information effects prices almost immediately,

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<v Speaker 1>which means markets are efficient. David co founded Dimensional with

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<v Speaker 1>another University of Chicago alum, Rex Sinquefeld in one The

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<v Speaker 1>firm now employees four hundred people who helped manage five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy nine billion dollars over the twenty years

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<v Speaker 1>ending in twenty eighteen. Eight of dimensionals equity and fixed

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<v Speaker 1>income funds beat their benchmark the rest of the industry

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<v Speaker 1>just seventeen and that's based on much of the work

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<v Speaker 1>that Professor Fama did. So so let's jump into the

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<v Speaker 1>history um of both Gene and David and see where

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<v Speaker 1>it goes. Jeane, during your last I feel weird calling

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<v Speaker 1>you Gene. It really should be Professor Farma, shouldn't it Um?

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<v Speaker 1>During your last year toughs. You worked for Professor Harry

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<v Speaker 1>Ernst who had a light gig running a stock market

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<v Speaker 1>forecasting service, and you did research for him. What sort

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<v Speaker 1>of work did you do with this stock forecasting research?

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<v Speaker 1>I was devising schemes to beat the market, and how

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<v Speaker 1>did that work out? Worked out fine? And on the

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<v Speaker 1>data that I fitted to didn't work out fine on

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<v Speaker 1>the whole load sample never did So that was a

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<v Speaker 1>lesson that data judging continn of things that aren't really there.

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<v Speaker 1>And how did that research into forecasting the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>impact your thinking about whether or not the market could

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<v Speaker 1>be be well? When I came here to Chicago, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>research on asset prices had again to get going in

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<v Speaker 1>really serious way, and many people were interested in the

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<v Speaker 1>question of how well stock prices adjusted to new information.

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<v Speaker 1>Put in context, they always say it started because of computers.

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<v Speaker 1>Before really didn't have a serious computer too do data

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<v Speaker 1>analysis on. And with the coming of computers, statisticians economists

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<v Speaker 1>were they had a new toy too to play with

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<v Speaker 1>and stock stock prices were easily available, so that was

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<v Speaker 1>one of the first things they started to study. And

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<v Speaker 1>then immediately the economists said, well, how do we expect

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<v Speaker 1>prices to behave if the world was working properly, in

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<v Speaker 1>other words, if markets were efficient. They weren't using that term,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's what they were after, and they were all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of theories proposed. They had lots of shortcomings to them,

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<v Speaker 1>and a little bit of time we came to the

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<v Speaker 1>efficient market hypothesis. And you were in your senior year Toughs.

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<v Speaker 1>You had applied here, but you never heard back from

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<v Speaker 1>the school. Is this an urban legend or is this true?

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<v Speaker 1>So what happened? I called? I called in uh the

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<v Speaker 1>Dina students toff at Keff answered, that wouldn't happen today.

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<v Speaker 1>The school is so much bigger. The dean students doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>even have a telephone. Way too important for that. So

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<v Speaker 1>he answered the phone. We chatted for a while and

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<v Speaker 1>he said, well, I hate to tell you, but we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have any record of your application. So what kind

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<v Speaker 1>of grades do you have at Toughs? And I said

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much a lazy. He said, well, we have a

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<v Speaker 1>scholarship for someone from Toughs. Do you want it? And

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<v Speaker 1>then that's how that's how I ended up at the

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<v Speaker 1>University of Chicago. So so you come here as a

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<v Speaker 1>student you're you're finishing your work. Eventually, Martin Miller says

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<v Speaker 1>to you, Hey, do you want to stick around and

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<v Speaker 1>keep doing the sort of research you're doing? Is that

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<v Speaker 1>how you became a professor here? Yeah? I was. I

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<v Speaker 1>had offers that some other places, um, but lots of

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<v Speaker 1>the places turned me down. They said it was to Chicago.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know what that meant actually, but but uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it was very rare to hire somebody from your ound

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<v Speaker 1>PhD program onto the faculty. They're only gonna one or

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<v Speaker 1>two before there. So, David, you had a somewhat different experience.

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<v Speaker 1>You grow up in Kansas, you get a b a

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<v Speaker 1>in economics and a master's from the University of Kansas.

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<v Speaker 1>What made you decide to come to Chicago. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>did a little bit of reading um in finance um

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<v Speaker 1>and um my had a finance professor there that gotten

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<v Speaker 1>his PhD here, and he said, finances exploding really emerging

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<v Speaker 1>as an academic discipline. It's really one of the the

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<v Speaker 1>epicenters is clearly Chicago. And so I thought, well, I, God,

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<v Speaker 1>I should be fun, maybe be a professor. So I

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<v Speaker 1>applied here. Uh. Um, Yeah, I started to stay, took

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<v Speaker 1>jeans class my very first class, and is was the

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<v Speaker 1>Dean Correct? Was that literally fifty years ago? Fifty years

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<v Speaker 1>ago this fall? It was. Yeah, it was the first

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<v Speaker 1>year that Chicago had a football team in thirty four years.

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<v Speaker 1>And you had written about your experience taking a class

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<v Speaker 1>with Gene. You called it um life changing and transformative.

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<v Speaker 1>In what ways was it life changing? Well? Life changing

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<v Speaker 1>led to a career. I mean, I can't have much

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<v Speaker 1>of a bigger change than that, but it's um life changing.

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<v Speaker 1>And then I think everybody here probably UM, I would

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<v Speaker 1>like to think of themselves UM having a public purpose.

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<v Speaker 1>At the end of it all, when you get to

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<v Speaker 1>be my age, you want to look back and I

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<v Speaker 1>think somehow the world was better off for your having

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<v Speaker 1>been here. And so these ideas that were coming out,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the essence of efficient markets, it was already

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<v Speaker 1>well developed. He had already coined the term UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>you just said, this is enormously useful. If you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the way money was managed fifty years ago, people

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<v Speaker 1>are getting ripped off. I mean, fees were way too high.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the commissions were fixed by the government, uh

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<v Speaker 1>at about ten times what they are today, and uh

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<v Speaker 1>we forth it's free today. So it's a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>than ten x yeah. Yeah, yeah, So it's um. I

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<v Speaker 1>think there was a spirit of that we can improve

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<v Speaker 1>people's lives, you know, a real purpose to all of this.

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<v Speaker 1>Gene um more on the research side, and I've thought

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<v Speaker 1>my role in all this would be more on the

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<v Speaker 1>application of the ideas. So you become Jane's teaching assistant.

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<v Speaker 1>How did that come about? I always I always picked

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<v Speaker 1>the student in the class in the previous year to

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<v Speaker 1>be the teachers good student. It's the best of the class.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't have to laugh at that. I mean, so

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<v Speaker 1>best student, professor Farmers teaching assistant. Why not a career

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<v Speaker 1>in academia. Well, first off, I realized I could never

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<v Speaker 1>compete with gene I mean when you're at the top

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<v Speaker 1>of the mountain. Um. But it's really something. It caused

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<v Speaker 1>me to reflect and you know, really internally and what

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<v Speaker 1>what am I about? What do I enjoy? And I

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<v Speaker 1>I just saw this as a great opportunity to go

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<v Speaker 1>out to apply all these ideas people were developing. Every

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<v Speaker 1>new paper coming out was a landmark paper. It was

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<v Speaker 1>it was all brand new stuff, and uh, none of

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<v Speaker 1>them was being applied. So we're gonna come back to

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<v Speaker 1>the application very shortly. But you mentioned that all these

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<v Speaker 1>new ground baking, groundbreaking papers were coming out. Professor Farmer,

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<v Speaker 1>your doctoral thesis in four was the behavior of stock

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<v Speaker 1>market prices, And this sentence jumps right off the page

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<v Speaker 1>quote chart reading, though perhaps an interesting pastime, is of

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<v Speaker 1>no real value to the stock market investor. So this

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<v Speaker 1>gets published in the Journal of Business in nine. What

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<v Speaker 1>sort of pushback do you get to the general concept

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<v Speaker 1>that UM charts are of no use past market walk

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<v Speaker 1>is of no future predictability to what happens going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>You got a lot of a lot of pushback from

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<v Speaker 1>the professionals. The academics looked at the data, looked at

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<v Speaker 1>what people were saying, what they were showing, and adopted

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<v Speaker 1>it right away. I mean, there was no prospect among

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<v Speaker 1>the academics. Really, it's really the beginning of I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you had to summarize really impact of all this

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<v Speaker 1>is UM what was going on in Chicago then really

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<v Speaker 1>changed the way people think about investing. And that's really

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<v Speaker 1>been the theme, and Jen has changed the way people

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<v Speaker 1>think about investing more than that's that's the pre and

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<v Speaker 1>post law line, pre FAMA and post Fauma there's a

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<v Speaker 1>ce change. I don't like the postframa business meaning meaning

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<v Speaker 1>post publication of your way. So we not only have

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<v Speaker 1>your doctoral thesis, we have the efficient market paper. We

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<v Speaker 1>have the FAMA French three factor paper. There are a

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<v Speaker 1>number of very very influential papers that David, if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>hearing you correctly, you're saying that changed the firmaments of

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<v Speaker 1>finance forever, changing it forever and for the better. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I get particularly, and there's among students there's this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of antipathy towards finance and economics, you know, and they

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<v Speaker 1>don't realize how much UH finance has changed for the better.

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<v Speaker 1>People's lives have been improved by these ideas in this research,

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<v Speaker 1>lower fees, better of risk control, and so forth. So

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<v Speaker 1>so let's let's compare then and now a little more specifically,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll start by talking efficient markets. Back in the

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<v Speaker 1>days when active managers were dominant, inefficiencies could still be

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<v Speaker 1>easily found, as could to percent fees. Professionals didn't believe

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<v Speaker 1>markets were efficient. They thought they were kind of sort

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<v Speaker 1>of eventually efficient. I doubt many of them would say

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<v Speaker 1>that today, what do you think has changed to bring

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<v Speaker 1>so many people over to the efficient market theory, well,

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<v Speaker 1>the accumulation of of performance evidence. So back then there

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't there was no real evidence on how these people did. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And one of the first papers was like Jensen's thesis,

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<v Speaker 1>which studied new toral funds for the previous twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>years and so that basically they weren't beating the market. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And now we know on hindsight that in fact that

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<v Speaker 1>has to be true that active management is a zero

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<v Speaker 1>sum game before cost because they don't they can't win

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<v Speaker 1>from the passive managers because the passive people hold cap

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<v Speaker 1>weight portfolios. They don't, they don't overweight and underweight in

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<v Speaker 1>response to what the active people do. So if there's

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<v Speaker 1>anybody underweighting and overweighting, there has to be another active

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<v Speaker 1>manager on the other side doing the opposite, which means

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<v Speaker 1>if one wins, the other loses some of those is

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<v Speaker 1>zero before costs arithmetic of active management. He calls it

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<v Speaker 1>the arithmetic because it is arithmetic. It's not a proposition.

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<v Speaker 1>It has to be true for everyone, or there's an

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<v Speaker 1>offsetting loose. So what about technology, how does that impact

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<v Speaker 1>how fast information makes its way into prices? It should

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<v Speaker 1>make it better, Uh, but you know, truth is, prices

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 1>are so volatile. Markets have always looked really efficient. They

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 1>don't look anymore efficient than they and they ever have

0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 1>with the introduction of all the technology. So if information

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 1>is spread much more quickly now than it was fifty

0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 1>years ago because you have so many sources and they're

0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 1>so quick, but you can't really see in the data

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 1>that that's had a quantum effect on the adjustment of

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>crisis to information. So we may not be able to

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 1>see it explicitly in the data. But when we look

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 1>at things like hedge fund performance, they did very well

0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 1>before the financial crisis, since then not as well. We

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>look at the money flows away from expensive active towards

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 1>inexpensive passive, it sounds like lots of investors are voting

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.080
<v Speaker 1>with their dollars that, hey, the market is efficient and

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:59.600
<v Speaker 1>we can't beat it. Doesn't it seem like technology is

0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 1>dry having some of that Because there used to be

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 1>information asymmetries. There used to be inefficiencies that a savvy

0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.680
<v Speaker 1>manager might have been able to find. It sounds like

0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.960
<v Speaker 1>it's even harder to find those inefficiencies today than thirty

0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>years ago. Um, Hey, you have better information than I

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 1>do because you're saying, so it's always looked, it's always

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.400
<v Speaker 1>been that, it's always been zero sum game. I've been

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.440
<v Speaker 1>in the business now almost fifty years, and every year

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.760
<v Speaker 1>people say, next year is gonna be the stockpickers stockpickers market?

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 1>Well Gene saying is it's arithmetically impossible. So so let's

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:43.800
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about index funds. Gene. You introduced

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 1>David when he is finishing his NBA and wants to

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.840
<v Speaker 1>go out into the world of work, to John McGowan

0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 1>over at Wells Fargo, where they were developing as an

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 1>institutional product, the first index fund. What made you think

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 1>that that was a good fit for for David mac mcclown,

0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 1>who was in charge of the Wells Fargo unit, came

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.119
<v Speaker 1>to well the seminars we did here for business people,

0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>we didn't twice a year, the Center for Research and

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:16.879
<v Speaker 1>Security Prices were in seminars for interested business people and

0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:20.800
<v Speaker 1>Mac came to all of them and he seemed very

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, into the new stuff. And so when it

0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>came down the David said, I see what you do,

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:31.200
<v Speaker 1>but I don't want to do it as an academic.

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.200
<v Speaker 1>So I called Mac and said, I have a really

0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:36.680
<v Speaker 1>good student here if you've got a place him and

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.080
<v Speaker 1>he did. So what was your experience like it? Wells

0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:42.479
<v Speaker 1>Fargo working on that index one, Well, there was a

0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:48.480
<v Speaker 1>terrific experience, great exposure. I learned the importance of a

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:55.400
<v Speaker 1>client work. I mean investment businesses part technology or investment science,

0:17:55.640 --> 0:18:00.680
<v Speaker 1>and it's part client work. And as I've told Jean,

0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.479
<v Speaker 1>you know, I studied finance for two years, I've been

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:08.960
<v Speaker 1>studying client work at the last you know. And that

0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:15.679
<v Speaker 1>was we uh, we were so naive about dealing with

0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:18.159
<v Speaker 1>clients and what they would be interested in, and we

0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:24.080
<v Speaker 1>were so pumped up, jazzed up about the ideas. Somehow, um,

0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 1>we missed the mark and actually my group got it

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 1>was unsuccessful, we got shut down, but they were um,

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.199
<v Speaker 1>the other parts of the bank kept it going. And

0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:39.720
<v Speaker 1>now that little project we started end up as through

0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:42.800
<v Speaker 1>various hands, is now a big part of black Rock.

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.760
<v Speaker 1>So so let's that's right. It eventually ended up going

0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.080
<v Speaker 1>to Barclays and then black Rock bis them and now

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:51.399
<v Speaker 1>I shares I think they're coming up on six or

0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:55.520
<v Speaker 1>seven trillion dollars not to not too shabby. Um, but

0:18:55.680 --> 0:19:00.080
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about the application of genes theories to the

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 1>practice of working with clients post Wells far ago. You

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:09.600
<v Speaker 1>decide to open the small microcap fund out of your

0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:13.600
<v Speaker 1>second bedroom in an apartment in Brooklyn. Tell us how

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 1>you applied Professor Farmers research to that microcap fund. Well,

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the first thing is, UM, we decided UM not to

0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:26.640
<v Speaker 1>have UH around the portfolio like an index fund, even

0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.440
<v Speaker 1>though at first we call it an index fund because

0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:32.720
<v Speaker 1>it's very similar to indexing. With the final step being

0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:38.359
<v Speaker 1>UM that we don't trade UH market on clothes like

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:41.560
<v Speaker 1>many index funds do. UM. And what that means is

0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.600
<v Speaker 1>we were we would be trading stocks throughout the day. Well,

0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.720
<v Speaker 1>that created a lot of skepticism, particularly among academics, because

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 1>you're going to the marketplace. You know, you don't have

0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 1>any undiscounted information. People on the other side of your trade,

0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 1>largely institutions, think they know a lot about the stock.

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:02.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, why won't they just rip your eyes out

0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:07.879
<v Speaker 1>when you're trading. That's a that's a quite legitimate question. Uh. Well,

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:09.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean that the answer is there a lot of

0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:11.800
<v Speaker 1>things you can do to use the energy of markets

0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:14.920
<v Speaker 1>and the power of markets to your advantage. It turns out,

0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 1>for example, if we want to buy a stock. Let's say, um,

0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.439
<v Speaker 1>they have an institution wants to sell it. Their anxiety

0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.320
<v Speaker 1>is greater than ours, so we can use that their

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:30.400
<v Speaker 1>interest in trying to do a quick trade to our

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:35.480
<v Speaker 1>advantage and protect ourselves. And there's you know, plenty of

0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:38.359
<v Speaker 1>information now floating out about the stock that you can

0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.120
<v Speaker 1>use to protect yourself. But that wasn't known back then.

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:44.240
<v Speaker 1>It was just we had a belief in markets, belief

0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:47.880
<v Speaker 1>and and how they work based on what we studied

0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:50.720
<v Speaker 1>here and said, look, we think we can go out

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.680
<v Speaker 1>and trade these stocks and not uh not get killed

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>that there were two pieces done here and it's most

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:03.600
<v Speaker 1>stuck turns and most of the academics said, well, it

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:07.600
<v Speaker 1>looks good in terms of the crisp historical data, but

0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:09.679
<v Speaker 1>in fact, if you try to trade it, you're going

0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>to get swamped by trading costs. Uh. And that was

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 1>the so called market micro struct just stuff. And then

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:20.000
<v Speaker 1>we figured out what we found out what dimensional was, No,

0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.880
<v Speaker 1>he really didn't have to pay those big bit ast

0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>spreads that you were seeing. You could go fewer, was

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.479
<v Speaker 1>patient trader. You could do better with the prices, so

0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:33.120
<v Speaker 1>we could deliver this small stuff premium. But previous to that,

0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:38.840
<v Speaker 1>people weren't believes what the academics learned was the market

0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 1>micro structure stuff was garbage. Basically they didn't really understand. Interesting. Um,

0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:47.679
<v Speaker 1>what we learned about clients along the way, which was

0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:54.040
<v Speaker 1>seeing in our initial clients were all large, largest pension funds,

0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:58.160
<v Speaker 1>essentially insurance companies around the world, and they weren't hopening

0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:02.480
<v Speaker 1>the stocks of small companies. So really the pitch we

0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>got into all this stuff, but we hadn't even easier argument,

0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 1>which was, look, you ought to hold stocks of large

0:22:08.200 --> 0:22:11.400
<v Speaker 1>companies and small, and you're not holding small, so we'll

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:14.600
<v Speaker 1>get you access to small. So that was the really

0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:17.199
<v Speaker 1>the sales pitch that put us on the map. And

0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>so that sales pitch starts to take off and dimensional

0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:23.960
<v Speaker 1>operating out of your apartment gets bigger. There's kind of

0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 1>an urgent urban legend that you called New York Telephone

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:30.840
<v Speaker 1>to have them add six phone lines and they refused.

0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:33.640
<v Speaker 1>They thought you were running a bookie joy. Is that

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:36.439
<v Speaker 1>remotely true? Yeah, this was about the kind of at

0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 1>the bottom of Brooklyn Heights, uh, bottom of its history.

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:46.199
<v Speaker 1>It's so we started on a shoe string and we

0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:49.119
<v Speaker 1>ran the portfolio. Was the first portfolio manager running out

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:51.920
<v Speaker 1>of my spare bedroom. So I knew we needed more

0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 1>phone lights. So I called up New York Telephone, which

0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>was a telephone company at the time. So the need,

0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, uh some telephone lines and I know six

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:06.200
<v Speaker 1>or eight or whatever, and they thought it was a bookie,

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.040
<v Speaker 1>so they wouldn't give me the lines. So I had

0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:09.800
<v Speaker 1>to call up the Treasure of New York tell say,

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 1>can you send some people down here and give me

0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:16.440
<v Speaker 1>some telephone lines. And they went around the whole block

0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:20.439
<v Speaker 1>and found that there were six lines available available and

0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the whole block that based on their equipment, and they said, okay,

0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:26.720
<v Speaker 1>you can have those six lines. And that's how we

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:31.679
<v Speaker 1>got started. And the punch line is he becomes a client. Yeah, yeah, right,

0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:33.520
<v Speaker 1>New York that was a clickly became a clie down.

0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:38.480
<v Speaker 1>So so from from day one, Gene is a board

0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:41.920
<v Speaker 1>member of Dimensional Funds. From the day it launches, well

0:23:42.359 --> 0:23:45.639
<v Speaker 1>even before I mean, we have the idea to start

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:50.280
<v Speaker 1>the firm. Uh uh. My first call it was to

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:53.720
<v Speaker 1>Gene say, look, you know, it's been ten years since

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:57.320
<v Speaker 1>I was in school. We uh, there's been a lot

0:23:57.359 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>of research, you know, we we needed we needed to

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 1>have access to you know, new research and thinking. And

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 1>would you be on the you know, one of the

0:24:06.359 --> 0:24:10.439
<v Speaker 1>founders and and uh and and be our list you know,

0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 1>our our eyes in terms of research. And he agreed

0:24:13.800 --> 0:24:16.520
<v Speaker 1>to do that right away. Who else did you recruit

0:24:16.760 --> 0:24:20.439
<v Speaker 1>from GSP? Well, eventually we found out we had to

0:24:20.480 --> 0:24:22.960
<v Speaker 1>have We wanted to create a mutual fund, and a

0:24:23.080 --> 0:24:26.720
<v Speaker 1>mutual fund has to have an independent board of directors.

0:24:27.320 --> 0:24:30.280
<v Speaker 1>So Rex and I went over the Business School, walked

0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 1>into Martin Miller's office. They still teach mollarble deiply on

0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the theaters, don't take Yeah, okay, Uh. So Martin was there.

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>We said to you know, he added a YadA small

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 1>company fund need independent directors and um and said, oh sure.

0:24:44.880 --> 0:24:47.680
<v Speaker 1>And I walked out the door and down the hall

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 1>and Myron Schulz was coming out of his office. I

0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:56.679
<v Speaker 1>gol Myron, he had the YadA. See Gene's point. Business

0:24:56.680 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 1>school was a lot smaller then, and having been to

0:24:59.000 --> 0:25:01.720
<v Speaker 1>the pH d program, I got to know the faculty

0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:06.639
<v Speaker 1>pretty well. So Myron uh agreed to join, and so

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:09.840
<v Speaker 1>on and so forth. So in fact, until recently, all

0:25:09.880 --> 0:25:13.640
<v Speaker 1>the independent directors of the mutual fund, our mutual fund

0:25:13.720 --> 0:25:18.480
<v Speaker 1>be Uh have taught at Chicago, so his his business partner,

0:25:18.520 --> 0:25:21.919
<v Speaker 1>Reck Singfield, was in my class as well. He was

0:25:21.960 --> 0:25:24.200
<v Speaker 1>really the first one to put out an index one,

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:31.479
<v Speaker 1>wasn't he? No, No, it was but but Rex. Actually

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:33.640
<v Speaker 1>that was when I was his teaching consistent. He took

0:25:34.240 --> 0:25:38.879
<v Speaker 1>uh jeans class. And Rex was always uh one of

0:25:38.960 --> 0:25:41.520
<v Speaker 1>these pain in the neck as a teaching consistant students

0:25:41.680 --> 0:25:46.240
<v Speaker 1>because he was interested in everything you know. I'm so Jean.

0:25:46.600 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 1>You moved pretty easily back and forth between academic theory

0:25:51.200 --> 0:25:57.359
<v Speaker 1>and real world application of theories. Not a lot of

0:25:57.359 --> 0:26:00.119
<v Speaker 1>people were able to bridge that gap between academics. Well

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:02.080
<v Speaker 1>I hadn't. I hadn't been able to bridge it either

0:26:02.560 --> 0:26:06.600
<v Speaker 1>until Dimentcino came along. But here it is. It's forty

0:26:06.680 --> 0:26:09.160
<v Speaker 1>years later, and you seem to continue to be right

0:26:09.280 --> 0:26:13.200
<v Speaker 1>because he Uh. The reason they couldn't just because one,

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:14.800
<v Speaker 1>it's hard to shut me up. I don't take a

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 1>party line too too too easily. And he didn't. Ever,

0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:23.719
<v Speaker 1>He and Rex never said would you please do this?

0:26:23.920 --> 0:26:25.720
<v Speaker 1>What they said was, you do what you do and

0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:28.119
<v Speaker 1>we'll figure out if we can use any of it.

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:31.080
<v Speaker 1>And that fits in with the way I work so

0:26:33.880 --> 0:26:36.840
<v Speaker 1>frequently he would come in and say, look, get get

0:26:36.840 --> 0:26:38.639
<v Speaker 1>ready to make a presentation for our clients. They go,

0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:40.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't know what your clients are gonna

0:26:40.240 --> 0:26:42.240
<v Speaker 1>want to hear this. I go, look, Jane, you know,

0:26:42.359 --> 0:26:44.920
<v Speaker 1>say what's on your mind. It's been controls my department,

0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:48.400
<v Speaker 1>you know. And that seems to have worked out. So

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:52.600
<v Speaker 1>what was your involvement with the investment committee in the

0:26:52.640 --> 0:26:57.679
<v Speaker 1>early days of dimensional um? Were you participating actively in it?

0:26:57.760 --> 0:27:01.000
<v Speaker 1>Were you managing it? What were you doing? Well? I

0:27:01.040 --> 0:27:04.639
<v Speaker 1>was doing this back and forth with the research stuff.

0:27:04.680 --> 0:27:09.240
<v Speaker 1>But then they started a fixed income fund based on

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 1>fixed income research they had done in the seventies, and

0:27:13.320 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 1>they said, do you want to come in and trade

0:27:15.080 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>it for a day? And I said, sure, I remember

0:27:17.400 --> 0:27:21.240
<v Speaker 1>traded anything. So I went in. I know how much

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>money did we? Here were ten million dollars from somebody

0:27:24.040 --> 0:27:26.639
<v Speaker 1>and I managed to buy twenty million dollars of bonds

0:27:27.960 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 1>and that was a big problem. Actually, so waitwa, Gene

0:27:32.760 --> 0:27:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Fama day trader. I just want to make sure that

0:27:37.160 --> 0:27:43.400
<v Speaker 1>that was the last day. But I couldn't see the problem,

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>that's right. Um, So you introduce the Fama French paper

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:56.880
<v Speaker 1>on value dimensional funds, introduce as a US large value

0:27:57.240 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>and you are small value. In ninety three on another

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 1>farm of French paper leads to international value coming out

0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:08.520
<v Speaker 1>in that paper won a Graham and Dot Award of Excellence.

0:28:09.080 --> 0:28:12.159
<v Speaker 1>Was there anyone else trying to apply this sort of

0:28:12.200 --> 0:28:17.360
<v Speaker 1>academic research to either investing theory or the creation of

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 1>investable products on the market? There they're always kind of um.

0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:25.919
<v Speaker 1>Departments of big banks and people were kind of playing

0:28:25.960 --> 0:28:28.359
<v Speaker 1>around with it. But we were the only ones willing

0:28:28.400 --> 0:28:31.840
<v Speaker 1>to stand up and say, um, this is what we

0:28:31.920 --> 0:28:35.520
<v Speaker 1>believe and this is what we think you ought to do. Um.

0:28:35.560 --> 0:28:39.000
<v Speaker 1>Now they're we have all the quant managers out there.

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:42.760
<v Speaker 1>We got tons of people uh uh out there, you know,

0:28:43.480 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 1>trying to apply the same data. And back then we

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 1>basically were at In fact, I often go around and

0:28:48.760 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 1>show people thirty year track record on the various funds

0:28:51.760 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 1>UM and I go, you know, we had a lot

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 1>of competition back then, but they don't seem nobody seems

0:28:58.240 --> 0:29:02.720
<v Speaker 1>to have a thirty year track record. They did not

0:29:02.800 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 1>survive long enough to So let me fast forward, um

0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:10.680
<v Speaker 1>a couple of decades to the mid two thousand's. In

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight, David Booth made the largest donation

0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:17.720
<v Speaker 1>ever given to a business school, which has been called

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:22.320
<v Speaker 1>a transformational gift. Tell us about your thinking. What made

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 1>you decide in the middle of the financial crisis to say,

0:29:27.000 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>I know, I want to make a donation to my

0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>alma mater. Well, it was I'm kind of ties into

0:29:33.080 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>the story I was talking about earlier. I mean, what, Uh,

0:29:36.280 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 1>it got to be the stage where it was time

0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:43.360
<v Speaker 1>to pay back, and um, I mean I wouldn't been

0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:47.880
<v Speaker 1>anywhere without Chicago. So I said, I wanted to give

0:29:47.920 --> 0:29:52.120
<v Speaker 1>a big chunk of what I have and uh, um,

0:29:52.160 --> 0:29:55.000
<v Speaker 1>this was a mix of stocks and cash, Is that correct?

0:29:55.360 --> 0:29:59.040
<v Speaker 1>And it was actually, Um, I didn't have a lot

0:29:59.080 --> 0:30:03.000
<v Speaker 1>of cash at that time. It was because we just

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 1>recently started to accumulate the money big enough to but

0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 1>I had stock in the firm, and so I gave

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 1>him basically ownership of a big chunk of the of

0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>the stock that I had, and they were willing to

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:21.880
<v Speaker 1>take a bit on that. And it turned up to

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:24.680
<v Speaker 1>be a convet and that that comes with a dividend

0:30:24.760 --> 0:30:28.760
<v Speaker 1>which continues to pay its way to uh to booth.

0:30:29.720 --> 0:30:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Were you at all concerned that you were right in

0:30:32.200 --> 0:30:35.840
<v Speaker 1>the middle of a financial crisis giving ownership of a

0:30:35.880 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 1>financial firm. A lot of firms did not make it

0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:41.800
<v Speaker 1>through the financial crisis. Yeah, maybe it ties in with

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the earlier question about what I learned from here about

0:30:44.720 --> 0:30:47.360
<v Speaker 1>markets and how they work, and you have to kind

0:30:47.360 --> 0:30:50.240
<v Speaker 1>of keep in the depth of the financial crisis. It

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:53.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of had to keep reminding people. You know, markets

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:55.560
<v Speaker 1>are where buyers and sellers come together and in a

0:30:55.640 --> 0:30:58.720
<v Speaker 1>voluntary transaction, both sides of a trade have to feel

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:00.400
<v Speaker 1>like they have a good they got a deal, or

0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:03.120
<v Speaker 1>they don't trade. They don't trade. So you know, there's

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:05.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of trading volume activity and a lot of

0:31:05.400 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>well known investors investing, and it's just you know, one

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:12.920
<v Speaker 1>of those UM. It was comfortable those markets were functioning

0:31:12.960 --> 0:31:15.680
<v Speaker 1>the way they ought to function. Sometimes they go up,

0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:19.640
<v Speaker 1>sometimes they go down. Gene, how did David's gift impact

0:31:19.760 --> 0:31:24.719
<v Speaker 1>the Graduate School of Business? Huh, it was. It was

0:31:25.000 --> 0:31:28.560
<v Speaker 1>a big lot of cash flow that was not there beforehand,

0:31:28.640 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>so it gave rise to lots of research centers. I

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 1>think you made everybody feel as if the future is

0:31:38.480 --> 0:31:42.400
<v Speaker 1>more or less assured. UM and the university also got

0:31:42.400 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good take out of itself, as they always do,

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 1>so David, you tell a charming story about sitting with

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:55.640
<v Speaker 1>the dean and you It wasn't your intention for this

0:31:55.680 --> 0:31:58.520
<v Speaker 1>originally to be a naming gift. They seem to have

0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:00.360
<v Speaker 1>brought that up to you. Can you you right know?

0:32:00.720 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>I said I wanted for the reasons I outlined, I

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:05.840
<v Speaker 1>wanted to make a gift a big part of what

0:32:05.920 --> 0:32:08.840
<v Speaker 1>I have, um, and so this is what I want

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:12.080
<v Speaker 1>to do. And the Dean, Ted Snyder at the time,

0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 1>said we were looking to have a naming gift from

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the business School. This is a lot better deal than

0:32:17.360 --> 0:32:20.440
<v Speaker 1>that what we're looking for, So we'll name the school

0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:29.200
<v Speaker 1>after you. Okay, whatever you know. So since then the

0:32:29.240 --> 0:32:33.080
<v Speaker 1>school has continued to grow in in both reputation and

0:32:33.600 --> 0:32:36.960
<v Speaker 1>number of students and the offerings here. Um. And then

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:41.680
<v Speaker 1>fast forward, uh, five years after that, Jane gets a

0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:45.520
<v Speaker 1>phone call from Sweden. Let's talk a little bit about that.

0:32:45.760 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 1>What was your experience like, Uh, did the phone call

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:51.440
<v Speaker 1>manage to reach you? Tell us? Tell us what that

0:32:51.560 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 1>was like? Well, they think they call it early the

0:32:55.200 --> 0:33:00.239
<v Speaker 1>morning Stockholm time, which is really really in the in here.

0:33:00.240 --> 0:33:04.280
<v Speaker 1>It thinks about five or six o'clock. So I don't know.

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:05.720
<v Speaker 1>You never expect to get it, because a lot of

0:33:05.720 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 1>people could qualify to to get it when you get it. Somehow,

0:33:09.720 --> 0:33:13.520
<v Speaker 1>Pete they the people he somehow had I guess or whatever.

0:33:13.520 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't know why, because they were newspaper people at

0:33:16.360 --> 0:33:21.560
<v Speaker 1>my door ten minutes later after after the call and

0:33:21.560 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 1>they wanted to come in my house. I said, no way,

0:33:27.960 --> 0:33:31.400
<v Speaker 1>you're class. Well, I had a class that morning, and

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't. You don't get a special dispensation when you could.

0:33:36.040 --> 0:33:37.840
<v Speaker 1>But I had never missed the class in all the

0:33:37.920 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 1>years I've been teaching in fifty years. Yeah, I wasn't

0:33:40.720 --> 0:33:43.720
<v Speaker 1>gonna start now, so when I wasn't gonna let anybody

0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:45.800
<v Speaker 1>in because the kids in the class were paying a

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:49.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of money to take that course, So no way

0:33:49.200 --> 0:33:52.719
<v Speaker 1>I wanted people from the outside disturbing it. So, David,

0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 1>you ended up going to Stockholme with Jeane. What what

0:33:56.440 --> 0:34:01.600
<v Speaker 1>was that experience like? Um, well, of course, being Chicago trained,

0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:04.959
<v Speaker 1>I've been to the ceremony before with when when Myron

0:34:05.040 --> 0:34:08.279
<v Speaker 1>and Bob Martin got there Nobel, So you know it's

0:34:08.440 --> 0:34:12.839
<v Speaker 1>you're kind of used to this of you so third

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:17.799
<v Speaker 1>times of charm. Yeah, so the uh so, I I

0:34:17.920 --> 0:34:21.200
<v Speaker 1>said to Jane, give me a night, uh to organize

0:34:21.239 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 1>something special. So I talked to Abba has a museum

0:34:26.480 --> 0:34:29.239
<v Speaker 1>in Stockholm that they just opened, and I talked them

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:33.840
<v Speaker 1>into running me out the museum for the evening. So Jeane,

0:34:34.120 --> 0:34:35.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, he has four kids and that time about

0:34:35.960 --> 0:34:39.960
<v Speaker 1>eight grandkids and they're all u big music fans and

0:34:40.040 --> 0:34:43.520
<v Speaker 1>so the Abbe Museum has a lot of u um

0:34:44.520 --> 0:34:47.640
<v Speaker 1>um things you can do to have fun and um.

0:34:47.840 --> 0:34:49.800
<v Speaker 1>One of them is a big stage with a scrim

0:34:49.840 --> 0:34:53.759
<v Speaker 1>on it and with four Abba musicians singing with a

0:34:53.840 --> 0:34:56.279
<v Speaker 1>microphone right in the middle, and so you it looks

0:34:56.280 --> 0:34:58.600
<v Speaker 1>like you're singing with them. And so I looked, so

0:34:58.680 --> 0:35:00.840
<v Speaker 1>this went on. They were the kids, The kids went wild.

0:35:00.920 --> 0:35:03.879
<v Speaker 1>I looked over Jeane like and Sally, and I could

0:35:03.880 --> 0:35:06.040
<v Speaker 1>see that they were they were having fun. So it

0:35:06.120 --> 0:35:09.680
<v Speaker 1>made it special for me. So the whole thing some

0:35:09.719 --> 0:35:14.000
<v Speaker 1>people have described as surreal. What was your the day

0:35:14.120 --> 0:35:16.720
<v Speaker 1>of the day after So they had a big event

0:35:16.760 --> 0:35:20.480
<v Speaker 1>here of the school, really big event, I mean news

0:35:20.520 --> 0:35:25.480
<v Speaker 1>and everything. The circles around the building, we're all full

0:35:25.480 --> 0:35:30.120
<v Speaker 1>of students um. And the next day the Nobel people

0:35:30.239 --> 0:35:35.360
<v Speaker 1>have a camera committee there following me across the Harper Center,

0:35:36.280 --> 0:35:39.360
<v Speaker 1>the big hum in the middle, and students are working

0:35:39.360 --> 0:35:41.920
<v Speaker 1>on on the sides, and we worked down the middle.

0:35:42.239 --> 0:35:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Nobody looks up. So we get to the other side,

0:35:47.080 --> 0:35:49.759
<v Speaker 1>and the television guy says, nobody looked up when I said,

0:35:50.000 --> 0:35:52.080
<v Speaker 1>this is the University of Chicago. If they had to

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:54.319
<v Speaker 1>look up every time I nobil fries when I walked right,

0:35:54.760 --> 0:36:00.439
<v Speaker 1>get nothing done. And and to show you how true

0:36:00.520 --> 0:36:04.040
<v Speaker 1>that is, David Booth and Gene and I get an

0:36:04.080 --> 0:36:07.720
<v Speaker 1>elevator on four to come down here, and a student

0:36:07.840 --> 0:36:10.960
<v Speaker 1>gets in wearing headphones, turns around, doesn't say a word

0:36:11.000 --> 0:36:13.160
<v Speaker 1>to either of you, and the four of us wrote

0:36:13.160 --> 0:36:16.440
<v Speaker 1>down in silence. He was completely oblivious to who was

0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:20.000
<v Speaker 1>in the elevator with him. So I'm always fascinated by

0:36:20.000 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 1>that sort of stuff. So so let's let's talk a

0:36:24.200 --> 0:36:28.160
<v Speaker 1>little bit about um some other things that you've written about,

0:36:28.239 --> 0:36:31.000
<v Speaker 1>and the two of you have applied. One of the

0:36:31.040 --> 0:36:35.120
<v Speaker 1>quotes of Professor Farmers that I enjoy is quote, why

0:36:35.400 --> 0:36:39.440
<v Speaker 1>is anyone even reading Wall Street Research? Unquote? So I

0:36:39.480 --> 0:36:42.480
<v Speaker 1>have to ask you, why do people read Wall Street Research?

0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:51.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. It's it's businessman's pornography, basically business based pornography.

0:36:51.719 --> 0:37:00.000
<v Speaker 1>It's not the real thing. It's not the real thing. Okay. Um,

0:37:02.840 --> 0:37:05.200
<v Speaker 1>so let's talk a little bit about value. I'm gonna

0:37:05.200 --> 0:37:11.520
<v Speaker 1>try and realist. Let's talk about value and growth. Value

0:37:11.520 --> 0:37:14.600
<v Speaker 1>has a tendency to go through these longer periods where

0:37:14.640 --> 0:37:17.680
<v Speaker 1>growth is beating it. And over the past decade it's

0:37:17.719 --> 0:37:22.480
<v Speaker 1>been if you weren't in big cap us growth, um,

0:37:22.520 --> 0:37:27.040
<v Speaker 1>you were underperforming. Everything has been um the SMP five hundred.

0:37:27.080 --> 0:37:29.799
<v Speaker 1>When we look at emerging markets, we look at small cap,

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:32.960
<v Speaker 1>we look at value. Heaven forbid, you're an emerging market

0:37:32.960 --> 0:37:37.160
<v Speaker 1>small cap value. It's been terrible. What sort of lessons

0:37:37.160 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 1>should investors take from this extended period of growth growth

0:37:41.280 --> 0:37:44.680
<v Speaker 1>beating value? Well, the question they want to ask is

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:51.640
<v Speaker 1>as value dead? Okay, let's Kennan. I actually were reading

0:37:51.680 --> 0:37:54.160
<v Speaker 1>a paper on this at the moment. But the bottom

0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:57.800
<v Speaker 1>line is there's so much volatility in these premiums that

0:37:57.960 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 1>you can't tell if the premium is teamed or not.

0:38:01.160 --> 0:38:03.359
<v Speaker 1>It may have changed, it may not. You just can't

0:38:03.400 --> 0:38:05.640
<v Speaker 1>tell us. Let's see a wholl within the range of

0:38:05.719 --> 0:38:09.880
<v Speaker 1>chance experience that the poor return experiences well within the

0:38:10.000 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 1>range of chance over the time that's that it's occurred.

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:18.160
<v Speaker 1>So you really can't say anything. So so there have

0:38:18.280 --> 0:38:21.640
<v Speaker 1>been other periods of time where value is done poorly.

0:38:21.719 --> 0:38:26.680
<v Speaker 1>I remember hearing in this value investor was washed up,

0:38:26.680 --> 0:38:29.440
<v Speaker 1>this guy named Warren Buffett. He doesn't know what he's doing.

0:38:29.640 --> 0:38:33.440
<v Speaker 1>And typically when you hear that, it's usually at the ends,

0:38:33.640 --> 0:38:37.080
<v Speaker 1>towards the end of that period of underperformance. Um, you're

0:38:37.160 --> 0:38:40.839
<v Speaker 1>suggesting we won't know for some period of time if

0:38:40.840 --> 0:38:43.120
<v Speaker 1>the value premium is gone or if it's just a

0:38:43.200 --> 0:38:47.400
<v Speaker 1>regular cyclical underperformance. I don't think there are real cycles

0:38:47.440 --> 0:38:49.840
<v Speaker 1>to it. I think it's just kind of random that

0:38:50.480 --> 0:38:53.960
<v Speaker 1>go through good in bed periods, and you know, you

0:38:54.040 --> 0:38:57.279
<v Speaker 1>can't recognize them except that from the fact you can't

0:38:57.280 --> 0:39:01.520
<v Speaker 1>really predict them. Uh, we've we've tried tests, we've tried

0:39:01.560 --> 0:39:08.239
<v Speaker 1>predictive tests, and they have marginal nothing worth even focusing

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:12.480
<v Speaker 1>focusing on. So basically is stuck with the volatility of

0:39:12.480 --> 0:39:15.680
<v Speaker 1>equity returns. They don't allow to say very much about

0:39:16.080 --> 0:39:20.280
<v Speaker 1>what's happened to expected returns going forward. And and David,

0:39:21.160 --> 0:39:25.040
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen a huge proliferation of various factor funds,

0:39:25.440 --> 0:39:27.560
<v Speaker 1>not just the three factor, of the five factor, of

0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:31.799
<v Speaker 1>the seven factor model. They're now hundreds identified. What does

0:39:31.840 --> 0:39:35.960
<v Speaker 1>this mean for investors? Has has the proliferation of all

0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:38.319
<v Speaker 1>these new factors been good for investors or is it

0:39:38.360 --> 0:39:43.280
<v Speaker 1>a non event? Well, I mean I think on balance

0:39:43.480 --> 0:39:47.239
<v Speaker 1>um UM has been overstated and whatever whatever it is

0:39:47.920 --> 0:39:53.120
<v Speaker 1>the you know, I think UM researchers identified, you know,

0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 1>factors that seem to explain differences in average returns. But

0:39:58.320 --> 0:40:00.640
<v Speaker 1>there can't be hundreds of factor I mean, they got it,

0:40:00.920 --> 0:40:02.960
<v Speaker 1>They're probably at the end of the day, they're probably

0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:05.799
<v Speaker 1>a few factors. Uh and Gene and ken. One of

0:40:05.800 --> 0:40:08.080
<v Speaker 1>the things they try to do is instead of trying

0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:10.800
<v Speaker 1>to identify more and more factors, just take the researchers

0:40:10.840 --> 0:40:14.320
<v Speaker 1>out there and can shrink it down to simpler, you know,

0:40:14.400 --> 0:40:17.560
<v Speaker 1>more factors that matter, factors that matter, well, lots of

0:40:17.640 --> 0:40:19.960
<v Speaker 1>lots of these things that just different manifestations of the

0:40:20.000 --> 0:40:22.839
<v Speaker 1>same thing. Give us an example. So value can be

0:40:22.920 --> 0:40:25.480
<v Speaker 1>very measured in many different ways. I can use the

0:40:25.480 --> 0:40:27.960
<v Speaker 1>book to market ratio you need to catch full at

0:40:28.000 --> 0:40:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the price. They can use lots of different variables, so

0:40:30.560 --> 0:40:34.719
<v Speaker 1>I identify what is basically this same thing. Uh. And

0:40:36.600 --> 0:40:40.359
<v Speaker 1>there are thousands of finance professors out there who all

0:40:40.400 --> 0:40:43.160
<v Speaker 1>want to get ten here um they have the publish

0:40:43.200 --> 0:40:46.560
<v Speaker 1>to do that. So they're all just kind of searching

0:40:46.560 --> 0:40:50.600
<v Speaker 1>through the data finding stuff that maybe there only on

0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:53.400
<v Speaker 1>a chance basis that won't be there out of sample.

0:40:54.160 --> 0:40:57.840
<v Speaker 1>So there's lots of work being done and it remains

0:40:57.880 --> 0:41:00.799
<v Speaker 1>to be done on what we call robust this. How

0:41:00.840 --> 0:41:03.239
<v Speaker 1>does this stand up when I have new data? So

0:41:03.440 --> 0:41:05.840
<v Speaker 1>we we've always been into robustness in the sense that

0:41:06.360 --> 0:41:09.480
<v Speaker 1>when we found it in the ninety two paper, we

0:41:09.520 --> 0:41:12.160
<v Speaker 1>went back and collected the data back to that data

0:41:12.200 --> 0:41:15.880
<v Speaker 1>started in the sixty three We then went back and

0:41:15.880 --> 0:41:19.120
<v Speaker 1>collected the data back to to look out a sample,

0:41:19.160 --> 0:41:21.439
<v Speaker 1>and then we looked at the international leader to look

0:41:21.440 --> 0:41:27.440
<v Speaker 1>at a sample, and so pretty much the same thing everywhere. Um,

0:41:27.600 --> 0:41:30.440
<v Speaker 1>now we've had a bad period of this, but relative

0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:32.920
<v Speaker 1>to all of that, it doesn't look that doesn't look

0:41:32.960 --> 0:41:36.680
<v Speaker 1>that serious. And I have to ask you a question

0:41:36.800 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 1>about behavioral economics. Um, we're here in Chicago, where we

0:41:42.480 --> 0:41:45.600
<v Speaker 1>could short of call at the birthplace of behavioral finance.

0:41:46.000 --> 0:41:48.640
<v Speaker 1>What do you think about that area and what's your

0:41:48.640 --> 0:41:54.919
<v Speaker 1>involvement with it. Well, my good friend Richard Taylor, who

0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:58.520
<v Speaker 1>is the king of the behavioral finance people and another

0:41:58.560 --> 0:42:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Nobel law that no one I teach them and say

0:42:01.440 --> 0:42:07.239
<v Speaker 1>I'm the most important person in behavioral finance. Are because

0:42:07.760 --> 0:42:10.080
<v Speaker 1>most of the behavioral finance is just the criticism of

0:42:10.080 --> 0:42:17.560
<v Speaker 1>official markets. So without me, what have they got? And

0:42:17.560 --> 0:42:20.680
<v Speaker 1>and you and and Dick Taylor are golf parts are

0:42:21.600 --> 0:42:24.600
<v Speaker 1>so do you argue across eighteen holes or you know?

0:42:24.680 --> 0:42:27.920
<v Speaker 1>The reality is we agree on the facts, we disagree

0:42:27.960 --> 0:42:34.320
<v Speaker 1>on the interpretation um For example, he thinks the value

0:42:34.400 --> 0:42:41.560
<v Speaker 1>premium is the result of people's misperceptions of what accounting

0:42:41.600 --> 0:42:45.320
<v Speaker 1>information and other information looks like. That it's all based

0:42:45.360 --> 0:42:49.640
<v Speaker 1>on misinterpretation of information. Now, if you believe that, then

0:42:49.680 --> 0:42:53.480
<v Speaker 1>you think it should go away, because it's possible to

0:42:53.520 --> 0:42:56.640
<v Speaker 1>teach people that they have these these biases are professional

0:42:56.640 --> 0:43:00.520
<v Speaker 1>managers should be able to get past them, but they

0:43:00.560 --> 0:43:04.400
<v Speaker 1>still have emotional reactions that sometimes they can't get that.

0:43:05.840 --> 0:43:08.439
<v Speaker 1>That's the thing about behavior lea going elements. What their

0:43:08.480 --> 0:43:11.759
<v Speaker 1>studies seem to show is people don't learn from experience.

0:43:12.239 --> 0:43:16.520
<v Speaker 1>If you're stupidly, repeatedly stupid, you don't learn. And most

0:43:16.520 --> 0:43:19.760
<v Speaker 1>people are stupid. I mean, that's that's the provisation. Someone

0:43:19.840 --> 0:43:21.480
<v Speaker 1>has to be on the wrong side of that trade.

0:43:21.520 --> 0:43:24.239
<v Speaker 1>You said it's a zero sum, right, So so you

0:43:24.239 --> 0:43:27.560
<v Speaker 1>guys agree more than you than you might realize the fact,

0:43:28.520 --> 0:43:32.400
<v Speaker 1>but not the interpretation. But there is no behavioral finance.

0:43:33.080 --> 0:43:36.399
<v Speaker 1>Wait say that again. There is no behavioral finance. There's

0:43:36.400 --> 0:43:40.000
<v Speaker 1>no it's all just a criticism of official markets really

0:43:40.080 --> 0:43:48.959
<v Speaker 1>with no evidence. Is dick here? I think he would

0:43:49.000 --> 0:43:52.560
<v Speaker 1>disagree with that. So that's not so sure because when

0:43:52.719 --> 0:43:54.560
<v Speaker 1>when I put the challenge to him twenty years ago,

0:43:54.640 --> 0:43:57.239
<v Speaker 1>I wrote a paper that said, Okay, now you've been

0:43:57.239 --> 0:43:59.960
<v Speaker 1>criticizing us for the last whatever, it's time for you

0:44:00.120 --> 0:44:01.960
<v Speaker 1>to come up with a theory that we can actually

0:44:02.000 --> 0:44:04.800
<v Speaker 1>test and see if it works or not. And what

0:44:04.960 --> 0:44:09.400
<v Speaker 1>was response? We're still waiting. Actually you presented that paper

0:44:09.560 --> 0:44:12.560
<v Speaker 1>at a at U c L A at Gene walks

0:44:12.600 --> 0:44:15.040
<v Speaker 1>in and says, all the way over, I was thinking

0:44:15.040 --> 0:44:17.600
<v Speaker 1>about breaking my leg or something. So I can catch

0:44:17.640 --> 0:44:22.680
<v Speaker 1>some sympathy here. And to be fair, when Taylor won

0:44:22.719 --> 0:44:26.320
<v Speaker 1>the Nobel Prize, he admitted his plan was to spend

0:44:26.360 --> 0:44:30.120
<v Speaker 1>the money as irrationally as possible. So even he even

0:44:30.200 --> 0:44:34.120
<v Speaker 1>he agrees with you on that. UM, I wanted to

0:44:34.160 --> 0:44:40.560
<v Speaker 1>ask about, uh, some of your comments on Beta. You

0:44:40.719 --> 0:44:44.959
<v Speaker 1>said beta is dead. Do you still believe beta is dead. Well,

0:44:45.000 --> 0:44:49.520
<v Speaker 1>the evidence basically says that the relation between averaging tune

0:44:49.520 --> 0:44:53.080
<v Speaker 1>and beta it's too flat to be explained by the

0:44:53.160 --> 0:44:56.680
<v Speaker 1>capitalistic pricing model. That's a real shame because that model

0:44:56.760 --> 0:45:00.759
<v Speaker 1>is so simple. Um, if it were true, it would

0:45:00.800 --> 0:45:05.360
<v Speaker 1>really be like life, a lot simpler in many ways.

0:45:06.239 --> 0:45:09.120
<v Speaker 1>But it just has never worked very well. All right,

0:45:09.200 --> 0:45:12.040
<v Speaker 1>So what we're gonna do now? I have more, many

0:45:12.040 --> 0:45:15.000
<v Speaker 1>more questions. But this thing is lighting up, and we

0:45:15.080 --> 0:45:17.960
<v Speaker 1>have questions from the audience. So I'm gonna I'm gonna

0:45:18.040 --> 0:45:20.560
<v Speaker 1>ask a few from this and see, uh see where

0:45:20.600 --> 0:45:23.240
<v Speaker 1>we go from here. Um, let's talk about your views

0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:26.080
<v Speaker 1>on the future of active management. Where do you see

0:45:26.080 --> 0:45:28.239
<v Speaker 1>the industry going in ten years? And this is for

0:45:28.320 --> 0:45:31.640
<v Speaker 1>both of you, active management active management, Well, it's been

0:45:31.680 --> 0:45:37.880
<v Speaker 1>shrinking really slowly. So when Kenn did his American Finance

0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Association Presidents did his president speech, what he's what he

0:45:43.000 --> 0:45:45.200
<v Speaker 1>said was one of the things he said was we've

0:45:45.200 --> 0:45:48.800
<v Speaker 1>gone from zero to and I think it was about

0:45:48.840 --> 0:45:51.520
<v Speaker 1>forty years at that time, maybe a little more, and

0:45:51.600 --> 0:45:53.480
<v Speaker 1>since then we've gone to like I think it's up

0:45:53.480 --> 0:45:56.879
<v Speaker 1>to thirty or forty. Now that's passively man. So that's

0:45:56.920 --> 0:46:02.440
<v Speaker 1>permeated very slowly through the profess Yeah, what where it

0:46:02.440 --> 0:46:05.359
<v Speaker 1>will go from me? Or we'll see and and some

0:46:05.400 --> 0:46:08.240
<v Speaker 1>people have made the argument you have to separate active

0:46:08.880 --> 0:46:13.680
<v Speaker 1>from expensive locost active is attractive. Obviously this is a

0:46:13.800 --> 0:46:17.480
<v Speaker 1>key tenant at dimensional funds. How much of the move

0:46:17.600 --> 0:46:22.480
<v Speaker 1>away from active has really been away from expensive I

0:46:22.560 --> 0:46:25.000
<v Speaker 1>think a big part of it. And in fact that

0:46:25.000 --> 0:46:27.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the move to indexing is through e

0:46:27.560 --> 0:46:29.560
<v Speaker 1>t f s and a lot of the a lot

0:46:29.600 --> 0:46:32.239
<v Speaker 1>of that is just a new version of active management.

0:46:32.600 --> 0:46:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Um or managers say, look, I don't think I can

0:46:35.719 --> 0:46:38.320
<v Speaker 1>pick individual stocks, but I can tell them sectors of

0:46:38.360 --> 0:46:41.600
<v Speaker 1>the market, So let me buy buy E t f s.

0:46:41.960 --> 0:46:44.560
<v Speaker 1>So it's really kind of confusing as to uh, you

0:46:44.600 --> 0:46:47.400
<v Speaker 1>know what the trend has been in active management. But

0:46:47.520 --> 0:46:52.120
<v Speaker 1>I I think active managers are resourceful and always compe

0:46:52.200 --> 0:46:57.040
<v Speaker 1>with new ideas of trying to entice people with magic

0:46:57.640 --> 0:47:02.759
<v Speaker 1>with magic. So the pushback against um efficient market we

0:47:02.760 --> 0:47:06.520
<v Speaker 1>always see this argument. Berkshire Hathaway had strong returns in

0:47:06.520 --> 0:47:09.919
<v Speaker 1>its early years as the result of Warren Buffett's skill

0:47:10.000 --> 0:47:15.080
<v Speaker 1>and security selection. How given Professor Farmer's comments and market efficiency,

0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:18.880
<v Speaker 1>how can this early success be explained. So you take

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:23.320
<v Speaker 1>you have probably a hundred thousand people picking stocks right

0:47:23.000 --> 0:47:25.600
<v Speaker 1>right over a period of time, then you pick out

0:47:25.640 --> 0:47:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the one who does the best and impute that to skill.

0:47:31.080 --> 0:47:34.480
<v Speaker 1>The problem is, if I have a hundred thousand people picking,

0:47:34.880 --> 0:47:37.799
<v Speaker 1>what's the probability that one of them will look extraordinary?

0:47:38.239 --> 0:47:41.279
<v Speaker 1>Purely on a chance basis, You'll you'll always have some

0:47:41.320 --> 0:47:43.560
<v Speaker 1>outliers that look, you'll get a big old layer in

0:47:43.600 --> 0:47:46.440
<v Speaker 1>that in that experiment. But that's the way that the

0:47:46.480 --> 0:47:49.759
<v Speaker 1>newspaper accounts run. They take after, they look after the fact,

0:47:49.800 --> 0:47:52.320
<v Speaker 1>and they pick out the winners. So every year, for example,

0:47:52.360 --> 0:47:55.000
<v Speaker 1>they pick out the best performers of the last five

0:47:55.120 --> 0:47:58.600
<v Speaker 1>ten years, and you look at the following period. No, no,

0:47:58.600 --> 0:48:01.479
<v Speaker 1>no correlation between past the tay and and in fact

0:48:01.560 --> 0:48:04.280
<v Speaker 1>we've seen the morning store manager of the year tends

0:48:04.320 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 1>to significantly out before underperform in the decade once they

0:48:08.680 --> 0:48:11.520
<v Speaker 1>win manager of the decade. But that would surprise me too,

0:48:12.040 --> 0:48:15.840
<v Speaker 1>I would think they'd just be random. No, no persistency,

0:48:15.880 --> 0:48:19.759
<v Speaker 1>In fact, negative persistency. We've had the sas in that subductative.

0:48:20.239 --> 0:48:22.920
<v Speaker 1>How much persistence is there in performance? The answer is

0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:27.240
<v Speaker 1>basically zero. Zero, and I have to the best predictor

0:48:27.480 --> 0:48:30.640
<v Speaker 1>of future performance is FeAs and expenses that you know,

0:48:30.680 --> 0:48:34.279
<v Speaker 1>it's ironic that came out of morning Star, that did

0:48:34.280 --> 0:48:37.640
<v Speaker 1>a big study and they sell their morning Star rating

0:48:37.640 --> 0:48:40.200
<v Speaker 1>and it turned out ignore everything else, just picked the

0:48:40.280 --> 0:48:43.840
<v Speaker 1>cheapest fun pretty pretty astonishing, right, Well, they come up.

0:48:44.080 --> 0:48:45.799
<v Speaker 1>I think they came out and said came out and

0:48:45.840 --> 0:48:49.239
<v Speaker 1>said there's no relation between between future performance and the

0:48:49.239 --> 0:48:52.520
<v Speaker 1>way we ran things. There's another question if it comes

0:48:52.520 --> 0:48:57.360
<v Speaker 1>out to that, so so um. One one of the

0:48:57.400 --> 0:48:59.919
<v Speaker 1>questions that is asked by the room. If the mark

0:49:00.040 --> 0:49:03.279
<v Speaker 1>it becomes truly efficient one day, what happens to all

0:49:03.360 --> 0:49:07.800
<v Speaker 1>the management farms? That question assumes that markets aren't truly

0:49:07.800 --> 0:49:14.680
<v Speaker 1>efficient today. How do you respond to that? What's the evidence? No,

0:49:14.840 --> 0:49:16.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean I don't think it's I think all of

0:49:16.960 --> 0:49:19.400
<v Speaker 1>it is wrong. So it's different. There will still be

0:49:19.440 --> 0:49:22.240
<v Speaker 1>a management business, you just will have very little active

0:49:22.280 --> 0:49:25.400
<v Speaker 1>in it, so that you have to have some active

0:49:25.440 --> 0:49:29.680
<v Speaker 1>investors to make price prices efficient. The problem is you

0:49:29.719 --> 0:49:33.800
<v Speaker 1>don't expect them to be professional managers because the logic

0:49:33.960 --> 0:49:36.560
<v Speaker 1>of being a good investor is that you should get

0:49:36.560 --> 0:49:39.200
<v Speaker 1>their returns if you don't hand them back to other people,

0:49:39.880 --> 0:49:42.319
<v Speaker 1>you take them back and higher fees. You know, that's

0:49:42.360 --> 0:49:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the human capital activity is picking stocks or whatever investment management.

0:49:47.360 --> 0:49:49.200
<v Speaker 1>So if you have real skill, you should be charging,

0:49:49.320 --> 0:49:50.960
<v Speaker 1>you should go all the retention should go to you,

0:49:51.040 --> 0:49:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Naz your clients. And and this is for both of you.

0:49:54.760 --> 0:49:57.399
<v Speaker 1>What sort of opportunity for out performance do you see

0:49:57.440 --> 0:50:00.600
<v Speaker 1>in private markets given that in for nation, in that

0:50:00.719 --> 0:50:04.720
<v Speaker 1>space is so much more opaque than in public markets.

0:50:05.120 --> 0:50:08.200
<v Speaker 1>The problem is there are lots of good people studying that,

0:50:08.760 --> 0:50:12.600
<v Speaker 1>but they hamstrung by the lack of good data on

0:50:13.120 --> 0:50:15.920
<v Speaker 1>people who live in people who die the fund. You know,

0:50:15.960 --> 0:50:19.359
<v Speaker 1>the managers who live in what self reported. It's not

0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:22.759
<v Speaker 1>like so you get you get it. You get a

0:50:22.920 --> 0:50:26.080
<v Speaker 1>very kind of biased set of data on that. But

0:50:26.440 --> 0:50:28.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's kind of depends on what into that

0:50:29.000 --> 0:50:32.239
<v Speaker 1>business you go to. If you're looking at managers who

0:50:32.280 --> 0:50:35.200
<v Speaker 1>actually run the companies that they buy, they may actually

0:50:35.239 --> 0:50:37.799
<v Speaker 1>be able to add value, but it's management value. It's

0:50:37.800 --> 0:50:42.040
<v Speaker 1>not stuck picking value. If they you're picking companies that

0:50:42.040 --> 0:50:45.080
<v Speaker 1>have a good idea but a fully run probably you

0:50:45.080 --> 0:50:46.919
<v Speaker 1>can have a lot of value added in that case.

0:50:47.200 --> 0:50:49.520
<v Speaker 1>But again, if you go to the guy's doing it.

0:50:51.719 --> 0:50:53.640
<v Speaker 1>That's the that's the downside of it. They're the ones

0:50:53.680 --> 0:50:56.000
<v Speaker 1>who take all the profits out of it. Well, that's

0:50:56.280 --> 0:51:00.120
<v Speaker 1>that's the logic of human capital, right right. And we

0:51:00.120 --> 0:51:02.520
<v Speaker 1>didn't get to a question before I have to ask

0:51:03.840 --> 0:51:08.680
<v Speaker 1>about bubbles. And this goes back to be okay, So

0:51:09.280 --> 0:51:11.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how to bleep out the word bubbles.

0:51:11.200 --> 0:51:16.040
<v Speaker 1>But what do you mean by okay? So folks like

0:51:16.800 --> 0:51:21.280
<v Speaker 1>Failor and Chiller would describe a bubble as a period

0:51:21.480 --> 0:51:26.640
<v Speaker 1>of excessive market enthusiasm that leads prices to far outstrip

0:51:26.680 --> 0:51:30.600
<v Speaker 1>their fundamental valuation. What's the testable proposition here, though, I

0:51:30.640 --> 0:51:33.560
<v Speaker 1>don't know, can you Well, the way I interpret it

0:51:33.560 --> 0:51:37.080
<v Speaker 1>is you must be able to predict the end of it. Bubbles,

0:51:37.120 --> 0:51:39.120
<v Speaker 1>it would be something with a predictable ending. So it

0:51:39.120 --> 0:51:43.000
<v Speaker 1>has to be measurable by a predefined set of parameters,

0:51:43.080 --> 0:51:45.440
<v Speaker 1>and you should be able to identify the end of it.

0:51:46.280 --> 0:51:49.800
<v Speaker 1>So if we were to say every time that fails

0:51:49.800 --> 0:51:53.840
<v Speaker 1>the test, I mean, I mean you can't. People can't

0:51:53.880 --> 0:51:57.760
<v Speaker 1>identify bubbles that way until after the fact. After the fact,

0:51:58.160 --> 0:52:02.320
<v Speaker 1>it's it's easy. But this is famous theory around about

0:52:02.880 --> 0:52:05.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, the early origins of market efficiency, which home

0:52:05.880 --> 0:52:09.360
<v Speaker 1>work working, went into the faculty lounge at Stanford. He

0:52:09.520 --> 0:52:15.160
<v Speaker 1>was agriculturally uh prices, and he showed them chats of

0:52:15.160 --> 0:52:17.239
<v Speaker 1>of of prices, and he said, these were chats of

0:52:17.280 --> 0:52:20.200
<v Speaker 1>commodity prices, and he wanted to not see if they

0:52:20.200 --> 0:52:23.880
<v Speaker 1>could identify bubbles and the prices, and every to a man,

0:52:23.960 --> 0:52:26.560
<v Speaker 1>they all could. There were no women. To a man,

0:52:26.640 --> 0:52:29.040
<v Speaker 1>they all could. The problem was what he was showing

0:52:29.080 --> 0:52:34.840
<v Speaker 1>them was accumulative random numbers, as those just generated uh stuff.

0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:37.440
<v Speaker 1>So that the message there's people see bubbles where there

0:52:37.440 --> 0:52:43.240
<v Speaker 1>are now h. So here's a here's a really broad question.

0:52:43.920 --> 0:52:47.560
<v Speaker 1>Given the societal angst of people attacking the value of

0:52:47.600 --> 0:52:51.360
<v Speaker 1>a business education, what is your belief in the value

0:52:51.400 --> 0:52:55.640
<v Speaker 1>of this education booth and how should we communicate this

0:52:56.200 --> 0:53:01.640
<v Speaker 1>better to society? Well, I think it's it's incredibly valuable

0:53:01.719 --> 0:53:06.440
<v Speaker 1>to society, um, because if we are going to make

0:53:06.520 --> 0:53:09.120
<v Speaker 1>lives better for people, part of the answer has to

0:53:09.160 --> 0:53:13.319
<v Speaker 1>come from better and safer financial products. And just that's

0:53:13.360 --> 0:53:16.040
<v Speaker 1>the reality. And that's been the history. I mean, it's

0:53:16.120 --> 0:53:20.000
<v Speaker 1>like I say, I look back on my career and

0:53:20.160 --> 0:53:22.960
<v Speaker 1>uh working with Gene and you know, we've been part

0:53:23.040 --> 0:53:27.840
<v Speaker 1>of the movement towards lower fees and better controls. So

0:53:27.920 --> 0:53:30.440
<v Speaker 1>I can find it irritating when somebody says, really, the

0:53:30.480 --> 0:53:33.000
<v Speaker 1>only advanced the last fifty years has been the A

0:53:33.120 --> 0:53:39.879
<v Speaker 1>T M. You know. Uh it's uh qu yeah, live,

0:53:40.320 --> 0:53:45.000
<v Speaker 1>we've live based all this work live, We've improved lives. Uh,

0:53:45.200 --> 0:53:47.360
<v Speaker 1>and there and other people with sharing the I s

0:53:47.400 --> 0:53:50.359
<v Speaker 1>we're not the only one. But I mean, I don't

0:53:50.360 --> 0:53:53.400
<v Speaker 1>think it gets much better than that. And uh so

0:53:53.600 --> 0:53:57.719
<v Speaker 1>I would hate to have people, um not to get

0:53:57.719 --> 0:54:01.880
<v Speaker 1>into business or particularly financial services. You can have a

0:54:01.880 --> 0:54:05.719
<v Speaker 1>good career in financial services and at the end of

0:54:05.760 --> 0:54:07.960
<v Speaker 1>it you can look back on it and take pride

0:54:07.960 --> 0:54:10.640
<v Speaker 1>in what you've accomplished. It's as simple as that. So

0:54:10.640 --> 0:54:13.879
<v Speaker 1>so that leads to the next question. What keeps both

0:54:13.920 --> 0:54:16.319
<v Speaker 1>of you working? Neither of you have to work, Why

0:54:16.320 --> 0:54:18.520
<v Speaker 1>do both of you still get up and go to

0:54:18.560 --> 0:54:24.000
<v Speaker 1>the office each day. It's fun, it's fun challenging, it's important.

0:54:24.040 --> 0:54:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's exciting to see the retired people living

0:54:28.239 --> 0:54:32.319
<v Speaker 1>better as a result of these ideas, or better able

0:54:32.360 --> 0:54:34.520
<v Speaker 1>to send their kids to colleagues or whatever. I mean,

0:54:34.560 --> 0:54:38.480
<v Speaker 1>these are These are not you know, ideas that have

0:54:38.560 --> 0:54:42.040
<v Speaker 1>no importance. I mean, these are you know that's you

0:54:42.080 --> 0:54:44.600
<v Speaker 1>can get behind that kind of idea. You get a

0:54:44.680 --> 0:54:47.359
<v Speaker 1>lot of satisfaction out of coming up with stuff people

0:54:47.360 --> 0:54:51.880
<v Speaker 1>haven't seen before. I have been recognized, and we have

0:54:51.920 --> 0:54:54.600
<v Speaker 1>time for one last question, and I'm going to go

0:54:54.719 --> 0:54:58.760
<v Speaker 1>with something about, um, what do you think the future

0:54:58.800 --> 0:55:02.320
<v Speaker 1>of Chicago Booth looks like? What is next in store

0:55:02.400 --> 0:55:05.279
<v Speaker 1>for the school? And this is for both of you. Well,

0:55:05.320 --> 0:55:07.440
<v Speaker 1>I can tell you that. So I've been on the

0:55:07.480 --> 0:55:12.359
<v Speaker 1>faculty since nineteen sixty three, students since nineteen sixty. In

0:55:12.360 --> 0:55:16.600
<v Speaker 1>the sixties, basically there was a pretty good economics group.

0:55:17.080 --> 0:55:20.200
<v Speaker 1>There was a developing finance group, and that was it.

0:55:21.480 --> 0:55:27.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's the school's junk. Well, but look that

0:55:27.080 --> 0:55:29.279
<v Speaker 1>was not unique to us. So I remember when I

0:55:29.320 --> 0:55:33.799
<v Speaker 1>was recruiting as a student, UM in college not from here.

0:55:34.800 --> 0:55:36.520
<v Speaker 1>The people recruiting said, why do you want to go

0:55:36.560 --> 0:55:38.759
<v Speaker 1>to a business school? They don't teach you anything, we

0:55:38.800 --> 0:55:42.600
<v Speaker 1>don't pay anything for what they what they do. And

0:55:42.680 --> 0:55:45.319
<v Speaker 1>that was too at that time. I think, and what's

0:55:45.360 --> 0:55:48.719
<v Speaker 1>happened through time is not just finance, but every other

0:55:48.760 --> 0:55:55.680
<v Speaker 1>area has been academically made more become more successful. So marketing, accounting,

0:55:56.440 --> 0:55:58.680
<v Speaker 1>statistics was always pretty good, but it was never part

0:55:58.680 --> 0:56:03.200
<v Speaker 1>of of of business schools. So now we have really

0:56:04.080 --> 0:56:08.239
<v Speaker 1>front rank faculty and every single discipline. The school is

0:56:08.880 --> 0:56:12.520
<v Speaker 1>so high, high level, competitive on the faculty side, on

0:56:12.560 --> 0:56:15.480
<v Speaker 1>the research side. But it's just there's no relation to

0:56:16.120 --> 0:56:19.400
<v Speaker 1>what it was fifty years ago. It's a totally different

0:56:19.400 --> 0:56:23.120
<v Speaker 1>professional place. On the students side, I think there was

0:56:23.160 --> 0:56:26.080
<v Speaker 1>a challenge, and I've been complaining about it for a

0:56:26.080 --> 0:56:29.040
<v Speaker 1>long time. Students don't work as hard as they did

0:56:29.520 --> 0:56:32.479
<v Speaker 1>in the old days. I've heard this is a very

0:56:32.560 --> 0:56:36.000
<v Speaker 1>very difficult school to work your way through. Well, but

0:56:36.080 --> 0:56:39.720
<v Speaker 1>the reality is we keep track of hours work per

0:56:39.800 --> 0:56:43.880
<v Speaker 1>per per class out of class. When I started teaching,

0:56:44.360 --> 0:56:48.880
<v Speaker 1>everybody was around fifteen per class. That number has dropped

0:56:49.160 --> 0:56:53.600
<v Speaker 1>dramatically through time. I bet this room would disagree with that. No, no, no, no,

0:56:53.640 --> 0:56:56.759
<v Speaker 1>we have the statistics. It's not it's not it's not

0:56:56.840 --> 0:57:00.359
<v Speaker 1>a guess. And and David, what do you see as

0:57:00.920 --> 0:57:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the next decade holding for the Booth School? Well, I'm

0:57:04.280 --> 0:57:07.239
<v Speaker 1>not really in a position there. I mean, wow, I

0:57:07.360 --> 0:57:12.440
<v Speaker 1>just gave him some money. I figured they can figure

0:57:12.480 --> 0:57:14.799
<v Speaker 1>that stuff out. If I had to figure that out

0:57:14.840 --> 0:57:17.760
<v Speaker 1>as well, I mean that would be a real hero.

0:57:17.960 --> 0:57:22.280
<v Speaker 1>You know, I I'm just um, I'm not. I don't

0:57:22.320 --> 0:57:25.200
<v Speaker 1>know where it's gonna go, but wherever it goes is

0:57:25.200 --> 0:57:28.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be important. And and that's the perfect spot

0:57:28.480 --> 0:57:31.320
<v Speaker 1>to end. Ladies and gentlemen, please say thank you to

0:57:31.640 --> 0:57:40.880
<v Speaker 1>Professor Gene Fama and David Booth. That's my conversation with

0:57:40.960 --> 0:57:44.320
<v Speaker 1>David Booth and Gene Fama. If you enjoyed that, we'll

0:57:44.360 --> 0:57:46.720
<v Speaker 1>go to Apple iTunes, look up an inch or down

0:57:46.760 --> 0:57:49.280
<v Speaker 1>an inch, and you could see any of the nearly

0:57:49.320 --> 0:57:53.720
<v Speaker 1>three d conversations we've had over the past five years.

0:57:54.240 --> 0:57:57.720
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us

0:57:57.840 --> 0:58:00.960
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at bloom Berg dot net. Be

0:58:01.040 --> 0:58:04.439
<v Speaker 1>sure and give us a review at Apple iTunes. Sign

0:58:04.520 --> 0:58:08.320
<v Speaker 1>up from my daily reads at rit Halts dot com,

0:58:08.400 --> 0:58:11.320
<v Speaker 1>follow me on Twitter at rit Halts. I would be

0:58:11.360 --> 0:58:13.720
<v Speaker 1>remiss if I did not thank the crack staff that

0:58:13.800 --> 0:58:17.800
<v Speaker 1>helps us put these conversations together this week and this

0:58:17.840 --> 0:58:21.240
<v Speaker 1>week was an unusual expedition. We all had to slip

0:58:21.320 --> 0:58:24.240
<v Speaker 1>out to Chicago. The folks at the University of Chicago

0:58:24.280 --> 0:58:27.120
<v Speaker 1>were great. They did a really great job in setting

0:58:27.120 --> 0:58:30.240
<v Speaker 1>things up so that we could both videotape and audio

0:58:30.360 --> 0:58:33.520
<v Speaker 1>record this. Michael Boyle is my producer, and he was

0:58:33.680 --> 0:58:36.040
<v Speaker 1>on hand there along with a few other folks from

0:58:36.040 --> 0:58:39.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg that really made everything go very smoothly. Charlie Volmer

0:58:39.720 --> 0:58:43.800
<v Speaker 1>is my audio engineer who helped cut this monstrosity together.

0:58:44.240 --> 0:58:48.520
<v Speaker 1>Atica val Broun is our project manager. Michael Batnick is

0:58:48.560 --> 0:58:51.520
<v Speaker 1>my head of research. I'm Barry rit Halts. You've been

0:58:51.560 --> 0:59:00.320
<v Speaker 1>listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.