1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros podcast. 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola, and here today to talk 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: to me about one of the most common questions that 4 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: betters have, why can't I parlay this? We're gonna be 5 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: talking correlated parlays, and we're gonna be talking a couple 6 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: betting strategies that you can use to guarantee yourself some profit. 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: So joining me today none other than Aaron Kessler, a 8 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: veteran of the book making game. He spent twenty years 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: as the sportsbook director over at the Golden Nugget, and 10 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: he happens to be a trivia genius. Aaron, how are 11 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: you doing today? 12 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 2: I'm pretty good. Happening all right day so far. We'll 13 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: see how it goes. 14 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: Indeed, let's see if we can't make it a little 15 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: bit better now here, of course, we are today talking 16 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: about some one of the most common questions that a 17 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: lot of betters tend to have when they're just starting out, 18 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: and that is why can't I parlay these things? And 19 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: the reason for that, most of the time is going 20 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: to be that those things are what we call correlated. It's, 21 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: for example, if you have Chiefs minus seven and Chiefs 22 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: money line. One of the most basic examples I can 23 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: give you here. You can't parlay those two together because 24 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: they are what we would call correlated. They relate to 25 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: each other. If the Chiefs win on the money, if 26 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: the Chiefs cover the seven, they've obviously won on the 27 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: money line. Therefore, you can't parlay those two together for 28 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: better odds. 29 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 2: Right absolutely, And you know correlations, you are going to 30 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 2: see it as not two things that necessarily are the 31 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 2: same thing, where if one hits, the other will hit. 32 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: It's where one hits, there will be a higher likelihood 33 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: of it hitting. And one example I always like to 34 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 2: give people, say you've got a football team between your 35 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 2: high school and the Raiders. Now the Raiders are favorite 36 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: spreads fifty five and the total is fifty nine. You're 37 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 2: not going to score in this game most likely. So 38 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 2: if you take the Raiders and you lay the points, 39 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: that means it's probably going to go over. If you 40 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: take the points, that means it's probably going to go under, 41 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: because you know it's just there are not many scores 42 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 2: that are in the middle of that. That's an extreme example, obviously, 43 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: but you see it with no football where it's minus 44 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 2: sixteen and a total of forty one. If you're going over, 45 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 2: you're figuring that favorite is going to score a bunch 46 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 2: of points, and if they're scoring a bunch of points, 47 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 2: they're probably going to cover. So because of that, it's 48 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 2: not really a true two point six to one parlay. 49 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: You know, you're much more likely to hit one or 50 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: the other. So the books will shut that down. 51 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: And there are a couple other potential opportunities where something 52 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: like that happens. It's not just in football. It can 53 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: be the same thing and something like hockey. If you 54 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: have a team that you take on the puck line 55 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: at minus one point five, you're going to run into 56 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: the same problem trying to bet the over right. 57 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: Right because the gold totals are so low in hockey, 58 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 2: you know fives and six is that if you're laying 59 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: a puck and a half, you're almost certainly going to 60 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 2: go over, or if you're taking it, you're trying to 61 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 2: go under there. And the reason for that is just 62 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: more common scores. 63 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: And just because two things are correlated and it means 64 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 1: that you can't parlay them together, it doesn't necessarily mean 65 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: that you can use that to your advantage when it 66 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: comes to making your bets right right absolutely. 67 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 2: You know in baseball what a lot of people do. 68 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 2: Since the home team doesn't bat in the bottom of 69 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: the ninth that they're winning. The home team is correlated 70 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 2: to the under. A bit you have seventeen half innings 71 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 2: instead of eighteen. The away team is correlated to the over. 72 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 2: You get eighteen half innings for sure if the away 73 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 2: team wins. So there are small degrees of correlation you 74 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 2: can still use. It's just the direct correlations are going 75 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: to be locked up by sportsbook. Another one you see 76 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 2: a lot is if you're betting matchups, say in NASCAR, 77 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: you can't bet William Byron over Chase Elliot, Denny Hamlin 78 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 2: over Chase Elliot, Mark and Trutz Junior over Chase Elliots. 79 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: Don't want to let you parlay all those because that's 80 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: just one bet against it guy. You're getting six to 81 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: one odds on the deal. 82 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: And one of the big things with that you talk 83 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: about the things that aren't true odds for a parlay, 84 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: is the fact that you can't parlay prop bets together 85 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: a lot of the time. And that becomes no more 86 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: apparent than when it comes time to the Super Bowl 87 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: when they're are a few things that you can parlay together, 88 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: but for the most part, on a lot of these props, 89 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: books aren't going to let you do that right. 90 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: Right because there are so many possible correlations that to 91 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: set them all up and lock out the correlated events 92 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: and keep the uncorrelated one hope one's open would be 93 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 2: pretty much a full time job. You know, you can't 94 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 2: take Van Jefferson over three catches and Van Jefferson over 95 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 2: fifty yards as are obviously very correlated to each other, 96 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 2: but you also have some correlations that might not be 97 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 2: as simple. You know, say you're taking last year's super 98 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: what you take Odell Beckham Junior over and cam Akers under. 99 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: You're looking at the rams leaning on the pass game 100 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 2: fewer carries, and because of that, there's a correlation there 101 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: as well. You can't identify the correlation between everyone in 102 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 2: a single game. Now, with the rise of single game parlays, 103 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 2: you're seeing a lot of sports books with the black 104 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,359 Speaker 2: box model. You don't see what goes into it, but 105 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 2: they're going to be running things that are going to 106 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 2: let you bet these but the correlation factor will take 107 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 2: it down a lot, and we don't get a look 108 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 2: at that. You know you'll see plus two hundred. Plus 109 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: two hundred should be plus eight hundred normally, but you're 110 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: not going to get plus eight hundred. You might get 111 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: plus six hundred, you might get plus four hundred, you 112 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 2: might get plus twelve hundred. But it's not a very 113 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 2: transparent process. 114 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: Now that what exactly is it that you mean by 115 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: the black box model? That's what you're talking about there 116 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:25,239 Speaker 1: is it's not math, it's not it's a little math, 117 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 1: but there's not a specific formula that you can look 118 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: at and say these are what the odds are going 119 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: to be from putting these together. 120 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, there is a specific formula. We just don't have 121 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: that access as players. And you know, if you take 122 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 2: enough time, I'm sure that there's a way to build 123 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 2: it and make a model out of data. But that 124 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,559 Speaker 2: is an awful lot of work. I know some people 125 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 2: have looked at it in the past. I'm not sure 126 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 2: that there's enough reward there because even so, you're looking 127 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 2: at bet in parlays that are very long shot events. 128 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 2: But yeah, the opportunities out there if someone wants to 129 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 2: dive into that model and try and tear it apart, 130 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 2: figure out what the book is using wear and find 131 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,799 Speaker 2: some mistakes. It's open. 132 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: Now you talk about potentially finding some mistakes, but if 133 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: you're just a layman better who's not going to be 134 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: going out and trying to break down that model. Do 135 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: you recommend staying away from same game parlays? Why is that? 136 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 2: I don't recommend betting or staying away from any certain 137 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 2: type of bet. You know, there's edges to be found everywhere, 138 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: and just because you're not someone who has a podcast 139 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: or has a history of winning a whole bunch of money, 140 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 2: it doesn't mean you're not going to find something. Anyone 141 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 2: can make a mistake. Anyone can find a mistake, and 142 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: if you can find the right exploit, you can make 143 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 2: some money off of it. So no, I wouldn't say 144 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 2: throw the same game parlays out, but definitely be mindful 145 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: of the fact that if you think you have an 146 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: edge on something, it's probably been considered already. 147 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,480 Speaker 1: And one of the other factors there is that everything 148 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: that we're talking about here are parlays. You can still 149 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: tell a story of the game with the bets that 150 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 1: you make. That's a common phrase that a lot of people, 151 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: especially when making fantasy football line like to use in 152 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: the DFS world. Like you said, and OBJ receiving yards 153 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: over parlayed with a cam Akers rushing yards under. You 154 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: can't make that parlay, but you can still look at 155 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: it and say, well, I'm going to make these two 156 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: individual bets because I'm believing this is going to be 157 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: the game script. 158 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, if you want to put together 159 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: a portfolio in a game and try and hit a 160 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: bunch of things you think are going to happen, then yeah, 161 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 2: by all means, if you think game's going to shake 162 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 2: up a certain way, definitely play all the things you 163 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 2: think are going to happen. But also, you know, make 164 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 2: sure you're getting good numbers on each make sure that 165 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 2: you like each events individually and not just because oh, 166 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: you know, if this is a shootout and it's a track, 167 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 2: mean everyone's going to go over because it's not always 168 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 2: that easy. They're not always that rams Chiefs Monday Night Game. 169 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: Want to track all of your wagers in one place, 170 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash 171 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: pick tracking. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to tally 172 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: which picks hit, which miss, and gives you a live 173 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: look at what the public is doing. So you can 174 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: use real time tracking to determine which place to make 175 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,679 Speaker 1: and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard and quickly 176 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: become a sharp by using the free advice we offer 177 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. But Aaron, you talk 178 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: about finding the right numbers and finding the right exploits. 179 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: What are some ways that some sharp betters are able 180 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: to look at a board and break down what some 181 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: of these potential edges that they could have could be. 182 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: How is it that you find that edge? 183 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 2: Well, you know, you look at your percentages of players 184 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 2: hitting certain marks and you got to see, you know, 185 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 2: convert all the odds to percentages and if your chance 186 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 2: of someone getting certain milestone is over the one the 187 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 2: book Scott, then by all means go for it. You 188 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 2: got to find your midpoints, find your medians, your most 189 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 2: common results, and figure out how likely it is that 190 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 2: someone's going to go above or below a number. 191 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: And how is it that you do that when it 192 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: comes to you talk about percentages? Converting the odds to percentages, 193 00:08:59,040 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: what does that mean? 194 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 2: That's you know, real simple process. Say you've got a 195 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: game at minus one ten, so you have to be 196 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 2: right more than eleven out of twenty one times. You 197 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: divide eleven by twenty one, you've got fifty two point 198 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 2: forty eight percent. That's how much you need to win 199 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: to beat one ten. So you've got a game at 200 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 2: minus one fifty, you've got to be right three out 201 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 2: of five times sixty percent. So minus one to fifty 202 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 2: is converted to percentage, and you've got to have a 203 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 2: sixty percent chance of hitting that bet for it to 204 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: be good. On the other side, so you've got plus 205 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: three hundred break even points one out of four, so 206 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 2: you need a one on four chance twenty five percent. 207 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: And I would definitely recommend all betters make a chart 208 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 2: of all the common percentages until it just becomes second 209 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 2: nature or keep the charter around. There's no shame in that. 210 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: And you talk about building this chart, is this something 211 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: that you just build yourself by hand? Are you looking 212 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: at for example, let's say that it is uh it 213 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: is Conor McDavid to score a goal in a game. 214 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: Is it that you're looking over his last x amount 215 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: of games and saying he scored this amount of times. 216 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: This is the percentage at which he scores. Let's compare 217 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: that to his odd to score, odds to score to night. 218 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: How does the percentage match up? 219 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 2: Well, you can do that. You can also adjust based 220 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 2: on the quality of opponents. You can adjust based off 221 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: what's been happening. Is last five games, ten games, twenty games? 222 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 2: Is he taking more shots than usuals, he's taking less 223 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 2: shots than usual? Are his line mates the same? Now, 224 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 2: anyone could look at the past statistics and say he 225 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 2: scores in forty percent of his games, he should be 226 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 2: plus one fifty. What the hard part is is projecting 227 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 2: out what's changed and what the odds should be going forward. 228 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: And so when you're projecting those odds out and talking 229 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: about that, how much of that is science and how 230 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: much of that is personal belief of a bookmaker, Not. 231 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 2: So much personal belief, but definitely looking at trends and 232 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 2: other comparisons. And sometimes there are just events where you're 233 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 2: putting up no one really knows what's going to happen, 234 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 2: you know. The Broncos Kendall Hinton game was a great 235 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: example of that. They started a wide receiver at quarterback. 236 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 2: Guy'd never played quarterback in the NFL. They didn't have anyone, 237 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 2: and the roster was able to play quarterback, and a 238 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 2: lot of people were just guessing at that. No one 239 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 2: knew what to make it. Is he gonna throw for 240 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 2: thirty yards, He's throw for two hundred and thirty yards 241 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 2: because they're down. It's one of those things where there 242 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: weren't any priors and you couldn't tell. So if your 243 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 2: model was better than what the books had, you were 244 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: going to clean up on that. 245 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,319 Speaker 1: And when you talk about models here, one thing that 246 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: I want to get into specifically was a great success 247 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: that you had behind the counter several years back when 248 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: the Broncos played the Panthers in the Super Bowl. You 249 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: had the numbers for Peyton manning stats drastically under what 250 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: most of the books around that Las Vegas had, and 251 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: sure enough you ended up being the one who was 252 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: right on that front. What is it that the models 253 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 1: told you? How is it that you came to your conclusion. 254 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 2: Well, I've got a little bit of a black box 255 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 2: myself that I used for making single game props, So 256 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 2: I plugged a few things in. I adjusted for Peyton 257 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 2: since he had returned from his injury, how he'd been 258 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 2: reacting since that, and I adjusted for how I thought 259 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 2: he was going to do going forward against the Panthers defense, 260 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 2: and his stats that season as well, But the downswing 261 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 2: after he'd come back was so low. And it wasn't 262 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 2: that he wasn't playing well, which he wasn't, but it 263 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 2: was more that he wasn't being used, and it wasn't 264 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 2: throwing a ton of passes. I remember the market number 265 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 2: on that game for manning yards was like two thirty, 266 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 2: and I ran my calculations three times. I had him 267 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 2: at like one eighty nine. It was a ridiculously low number. 268 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: I knew it wasn't the right number I was going 269 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: to put up, so I went to go talk to 270 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 2: my boss, Tony. I said, Tony, I'm way off on 271 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: Peyton Manning. I've run everything else. Everything else makes sense. 272 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 2: My manning number is through the floor. You know, we 273 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 2: can get in line with everyone else, or we can 274 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 2: stick our next a little bit. He said, how sure 275 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 2: are you? Said, ran the numbers three times. It is 276 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: what it is. I would definitely want to be on 277 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 2: the low side of this to go do it. So 278 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 2: we hung passing yards like ten yards below everyone else. 279 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 2: I adjusted the touchdown props down like fifty cents on 280 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 2: every number, and basically on Super Bowl Sunday. If Manning 281 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: threw a bunch of touchdowns and through for a bunch 282 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 2: of yards against the Panthers, we were not going to 283 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 2: be having a good time, I said stance. He threw 284 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 2: for one hundred and forty yards and two picks. It 285 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: was a good game. I enjoyed it. 286 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: A lot of people might not have, but that was 287 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: definitely a crowning moment for you. Now, when you talk 288 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: about these models, though, what are some of the dangers 289 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: of betting based on models, especially if you don't really 290 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: know what you're looking at and all of a sudden 291 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: you're betting on a bad model and it's killing you. 292 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 2: Well, first off, you got to remember garbage in garbage outs. 293 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: And another thing is the books are using their own models, 294 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 2: and the betters who are experienced and betting enough money 295 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 2: in the market are using their own models. So say 296 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 2: you've got you know, the vikings at the Jaguars, and 297 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 2: you've got Vikings minus six. If the game opens seven 298 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 2: and you want to take the Jaguars, but then you 299 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 2: see it's moving to seven and a half, it doesn't 300 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 2: mean you're wrong necessarily, but it means that someone who 301 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 2: knows something is betting on the Vikings, and you should 302 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 2: at least step back and consider, is there something I'm missing? 303 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 2: You know, why does their model say one thing in 304 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: mind sets another? 305 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: And now real quick here, just to get this caveat 306 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: in when you say someone knows something, you are of 307 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: course referring to someone who simply may have a better 308 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 1: model than You're not something of subter future. 309 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, this is you know, sharpbetters who have been 310 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 2: doing this for years, who have been very successful and 311 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 2: making a lot of money. They're doing it with models. 312 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: They're not saying, oh I like the Vikings, I think 313 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 2: their rush game is going to be really good this week. 314 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 2: You know, they're just printing out numbers and getting scores, 315 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 2: and it is what it is exactly. 316 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: They're using the same techniques that the sportsbooks are using. 317 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: If a better was starting out and wanted to figure 318 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: out a way to get into using those kind of techniques, 319 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: what's the best place that they can start. 320 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: I wouldn't even know where to begin. But you just 321 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 2: start getting some power ratings working from there, seeing if 322 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: there are any adjustments you want to make each week, 323 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 2: and before you bet off of them, compare your power 324 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: rankings to something like, do I think this team is 325 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 2: really this much better than this team? Sample your power ratings. 326 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 2: If you have the Giants in eighty nine and you 327 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: have the Chiefs a ninety seven, think to yourself, would 328 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 2: I make the Chiefs eights over the Giants on a 329 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 2: neutral And if not, maybe either your perception is not 330 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 2: where it needs to be or your power ranking needs 331 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 2: some adjusting. 332 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks 333 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you covered 334 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to 335 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: make it easy for you to cash out. Download the 336 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get to fight 337 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: a favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the 338 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: most accurate experts and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros 339 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts, 340 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So 341 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: download today in the Apple or Google Play stores. Now, 342 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: I want to shift gears with you here and talk 343 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: about a couple other betting strategies that aren't about I 344 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: think the Vikings rush game is going to succeed this 345 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: week they're about the numbers. They are about strictly trying 346 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: to lock in profits, and one of those is trying 347 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: to create a middle. Of course, for those who don't know, 348 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: a middle is when you attempt to take both sides 349 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: of a game at specific numbers that you create an 350 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: opportunity in the middle where both bets can hit. For example, 351 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: taking Chiefs plus seven with the Vikings plus one. If 352 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: you can get something that's obviously a smaller middle, but 353 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: if you can get something where you have a chance 354 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: for both bets to hit, that. 355 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 2: Would be a huge bit. I'd love to get that one. Yeah, 356 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean you can do middling in two ways. 357 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 2: You can do it plans where it's, you know, two 358 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: books at the same time. One's got plus four and 359 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 2: a half, one's got minus three and a half, and 360 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 2: for the four that one. 361 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: And to be clear, that's that's what's somewhat known as 362 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: arbitrage betting. 363 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, and yeah, that's a grinded out play. You're going 364 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 2: to lose most of the time, but when you win, 365 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: you're gonna make a lot of money. You're gonna hit 366 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 2: at minus one ten it's twenty to one shots. So yeah, 367 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 2: that's absolutely a good way to do things. It doesn't 368 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: always present itself in that big a form, and you 369 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 2: have to think about it, what are your chances of hitting? 370 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: Are you going to hit this more than one in 371 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 2: twenty times? You know there'll be opportunities on basketball games. 372 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 2: You've got a minus fifteen and a half and a 373 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 2: plus sixteen and a half in college, But I mean, 374 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 2: are you going to hit that one time out of 375 00:17:55,840 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 2: twenty Maybe it's just a question of is it worth 376 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 2: it you now totals, you might get a middle of 377 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 2: a point or two points. Another thing to look at 378 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 2: is middling over time instead of middling across books. You know, 379 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 2: you may think that a game is going to move 380 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 2: and say you think it's at six and it's going 381 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 2: to close seven and a half, you lay the six, 382 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 2: and if it comes back to seven and a half, 383 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 2: you buy back for either the same amounts or part 384 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 2: of the amounts of your bed if you like the 385 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 2: mimus six. So you can do things like that. You 386 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: can middle futures, which is bet a long shot and 387 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 2: then if they start to get favored, then bet the 388 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 2: other teams and lock in a profit. 389 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: And what are some of the sports that are really 390 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: a potential opportunity. What sports give you a bigger chance 391 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 1: to create a middle? Where does that opportunity to most 392 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 1: present itself. 393 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 2: College basketball, especially early in the season, you see totals move, 394 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: you know, five to six points quite often, so you'll 395 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 2: see some things there where you can get some middles. 396 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 2: I don't recommend using in game betting to middle because 397 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: if that line has moved, you're dealing with a new 398 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 2: set of circumstances. So you bet a college basketball game 399 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,959 Speaker 2: over one forty seven and there's eighty five points at 400 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 2: the half, your new number might be one sixty. But 401 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 2: if you bet under that, you're pretty much already locked 402 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 2: in on the first bet. There's no reason to start 403 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 2: throwing away your profit on a number that's new and rebalanced, 404 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 2: and probably the correct number for it is. 405 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 406 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 1: It's the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 407 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: You probably already have a fantasy league on there. I 408 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: use it for mine. It's a game changing product unlike 409 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: anything else in the industry, and now you could win 410 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. First, 411 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: just choose any sport. Then choose two or more players 412 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: that you like and pick the over under, for example, 413 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: number of points in a basketball game or hits in 414 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: a baseball game. Then choose the amount of money you 415 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: want to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, 416 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: you can win anywhere from two times to over twenty 417 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: times the money that you put in. The main reason 418 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: I'm excited about over under on Sleeper is that it's 419 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: the only app where I can join my buddies contests 420 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: and play together. It's got a built in group chat 421 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: where I can see and copy my friend's picks with 422 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: a tap of a button. It's insanely fun to ride 423 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 1: it out and talk some trash together. So stop what 424 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 1: you're doing and download Sleeper now to play their new 425 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,479 Speaker 1: over undergame. Have fun with your friends and make some money. 426 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: Just make sure to use promo code betting pros all 427 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: one word and Sleeper will match your deposit up to 428 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. Again, download Sleeper and then use promo 429 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: code betting pros all one word when you deposit and 430 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: make your first pick. Might I suggest Klay Thompson under 431 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: twenty and a half points in their matchup with the 432 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. Terms and conditions apply. See Sleeper 433 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: dot com for details. And so that's a really interesting 434 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: point that you make about middling in game numbers, because 435 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 1: I was about to suggest, especially in a sport like basketball, 436 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 1: where you have a wild swings in the action, it's 437 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: a game of runs, and the numbers can vacillate very wildly. 438 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: In game betting not actually a great way to try 439 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: and create a middle, right. 440 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 2: No, it's really not. You're throwing away a likely profits 441 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 2: and putting it on a fifty to fifty shots. You know, 442 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 2: these things are calibrated as they go. You're making two 443 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: completely different bets while maybe on the same market. It's 444 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: you know, two best of two different sets of. 445 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: Information exactly, it's it's two different, as you said, sets 446 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: of information because now you're betting on a new number 447 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 1: with a new set of information that the book also has, 448 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: and so the number is just more likely to be 449 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: accurate now than it was pre flop. 450 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, And speaking strictly for myself, I'm 451 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 2: much more likely to bet on the same side in 452 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: game as I would pregame, because if the circumstances have changed, 453 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 2: and I think that you know my team had a 454 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 2: bad run early, I'm more likely to press it. Usually 455 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 2: don't think that it means, hey, they're down, this team sucks, 456 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 2: they're dead. 457 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,040 Speaker 1: And the other thing is that you're also throwing a 458 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: way a bit of your you're throwing away your price. 459 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 1: You're taking a team that you could have gotten as 460 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: a dog preflop, and now they're going to be a 461 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: favorite because they've been on a run. I am very 462 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,199 Speaker 1: with you there. One of my favorite strategies for in 463 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: game betting in basketball is, like you said, I have 464 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: a team that I like preflop. I might not like 465 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 1: their number preflop, but I wait for in game because, 466 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,120 Speaker 1: especially especially in the NBA, you can see a team 467 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 1: go down by fifteen points and that by no means 468 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: means they're dead. And as long as you like the 469 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: team and think, okay, well, they can come back. Like 470 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: it's almost a god given thing that the Warriors are 471 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 1: going to go off in the third quarter. So if 472 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: they're down big in the first I like to consider 473 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: going okay, well, I can get a great number on 474 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: this team right now, and there's still so much game 475 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: left to play. It gives you more of an option 476 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: on a team that you liked. 477 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, but one thing to consider is remember the book 478 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 2: knows everything you know. And so if you're betting the 479 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 2: Warriors and then say they're minus ten pregame, at halftime, 480 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 2: they're down sixteen, So you would think, okay, there's half 481 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 2: the game left, they should be minus five second half 482 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 2: because that was half the game spread. But you also 483 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 2: run they're down, so people will expect, already expect them 484 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 2: to even out. And also maybe you know the shot 485 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 2: variance hasn't gone where it's going to go. The other 486 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 2: team is shooting the lights out, and you expect that 487 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,680 Speaker 2: to come back a little bit. Plus, there's always coaching 488 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 2: towards the game results rather than the spread. You know, 489 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 2: the coaches aren't coaching to cover, they're coaching to win 490 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 2: the game. So while you see, you know, you could 491 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 2: come up with a second half five or six, the 492 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 2: number you're looking at that game is going to be 493 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: closer to you know, ten or eleven. So make sure 494 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 2: you're not giving away too much value. And you do 495 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 2: that because remember they're looking for the same things you are. 496 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: That's a very great point. Now, another strategy, and we 497 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: touched on it a tiny bit here is hedging. One 498 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: of the ways that you can set up a hedge is, 499 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 1: as you said, if you have a nice long shot 500 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: futures ticket, then that team gets hot, goes on a run, 501 00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you can bet against them 502 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: on the other stronger teams. At what point is it 503 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: that you start considering a hedge if you're an average 504 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars play better? Is it a point where 505 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,120 Speaker 1: you get to a dollar amount? Is it get where 506 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: you get to an amount where you can lock in 507 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 1: a certain amount of profit, or just when you feel 508 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 1: comfortable with the opportunity. 509 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's going to be different for everyone. But I 510 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: would definitely advise to have a strategy before you place 511 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 2: a bet. Figure out what's my goal with this bet? 512 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 2: Am I going to hedge? When do I start looking 513 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 2: the hedge? What price do I want to get out at? 514 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 2: How much am I trying to make here? Because you 515 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: know you have to have all these things ready and 516 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 2: you may need to make quick decisions. So I would 517 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 2: say definitely be prepared to hedge, but don't get locked 518 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 2: into anything. 519 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 1: And and the last thing that I want to ask 520 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: you here, we see it with all of the free picks, 521 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,639 Speaker 1: all of the promotions and people that throw numbers and 522 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 1: teams around on social media these days. How is it 523 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: that you can go about as a new better finding 524 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: people that you can trust. How do you identify information 525 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: from that? 526 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 2: Well, to quote one of the great philosophers of my youth, 527 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 2: trust no one. I mean, if somebody is trying to 528 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 2: sell picks, they have an ulterior motive. Do they think 529 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 2: their picks are good? Probably? Are they good enough to 530 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 2: win if they have to sell them? Probably not. You know, 531 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 2: there's not a lot of people out there who are 532 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: really good enough to beat the system, and if they are, 533 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 2: they're betting it themselves. And so much of what professional 534 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 2: betters do involves getting the best number, getting the right 535 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 2: type of bet, and just saying I like the Celtics, 536 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 2: the Celtics are good, the Celtics are going to beat 537 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 2: the hell out of the Kings. There's more to it 538 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 2: than that what sharps do. So find a couple sources 539 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 2: that you know and trust, who are educated and well 540 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:49,959 Speaker 2: respected within the industry, but be very tradicious to you trust. 541 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 2: You know, you talk about paying for picks. I have 542 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,719 Speaker 2: never paid for picks. I would never pay for picks. 543 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 2: I have paid for tools. You know. I'm a subscriber 544 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 2: to sites like ken Palm, where I use their data 545 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,359 Speaker 2: to make more informed bets. There are some people who 546 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 2: do very good analysis in the premium space, but if 547 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,880 Speaker 2: you're paying for here are your locks of the night, 548 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,120 Speaker 2: that's generally not a good way to. 549 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: Go, and that's why people should head on over to 550 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: us at Betting Pros, where we do give out a 551 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: bunch of that analysis you talk about. We have insights 552 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: from experts around the sports betting space. Have to get 553 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,120 Speaker 1: that plug in there, guys, please go check it out 554 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com. Aaron, thank you so much for 555 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 1: joining me here today. I really appreciate all of the insight. 556 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 1: Where can people find you in the awesome work you're doing. 557 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 2: I'm over on Twitter at Aaron Kessler, just simply my name, 558 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 2: been there for quite a while, and if you like 559 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 2: dumb tweets about sports, I'm your guy. 560 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: There we go, Aarin, thank you so much once again 561 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: for your time. Guys, that is going to do it 562 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 1: for us here. Don't forget to head on over to 563 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com and in the meantime, we will catch 564 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 1: you guys next week. Best of luck with all of 565 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 1: your picks and plays for the weekend. Have a good one.