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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg even to Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve monars to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country series Exam Channel one ninety and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aben Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The Morning Sun a thorny on

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Speaker 1: walls trade at Michael McKee along with Tom Keane. The

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Speaker 1: story of the morning so far. Fightser giving up terminating

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Speaker 1: its hundred and sixty billion dollar merger with Allergan officials

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Speaker 1: in Washington cracking down on corporate inversions. It would have

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Speaker 1: been the largest ever healthcare acquisition. Right now, we're looking

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Speaker 1: at premarket trade. Elegan shares down one point seven percent,

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Speaker 1: Fiser shares up one point three percent. Canada's largest pension

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Speaker 1: fund gonna pay two and a half billion dollars from

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Speaker 1: minority stake in Glencore's agricultural unit. Glencore Works wants to

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Speaker 1: reduce its debt. Bordon Canada Pension Plan Investment will acquire

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Speaker 1: at stake in the division. Nokia gonna reduce its workforce

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Speaker 1: in over thirty countries, cutting jobs across the globe, part

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Speaker 1: of a plan to save more than a billion dollars

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Speaker 1: annually following its merger with the networking hardware rival Alcatel

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Speaker 1: Lusen Oh. By the way, Glencore, the markets don't like

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Speaker 1: this sale, apparently, shares in London down by three point six.

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Speaker 1: Right now, let's check out with Michael bar and get

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Speaker 1: the latest world of national headlines. Mike, Michael, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Republicans and Democrats are turning their sights on

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Speaker 1: New York presidential primaries on April nineteenth. New York is

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Speaker 1: Republican front runner Donald Trump's turf. Democratic front runner Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton was the New York senator, and rival Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: grew up in Brooklyn, New York. Follows yesterday's losses by

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Speaker 1: Trump and Clinton in the Wisconsin primary Sanders and Ted

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Speaker 1: Cruz one yesterday, former presidential candidate and Wisconsin governor Scott

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Speaker 1: Walker was that a Cruizes victory. Part. We understand what

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Speaker 1: common sense conservative reforms me We understand what it means

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Speaker 1: to have principal conservative leadership because we've done it here

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Speaker 1: in the great state of Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump had some

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Speaker 1: sharp words for Cruise after his loss in a biting statement.

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Speaker 1: Trump called Cruise worse than a puppet. He is a

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Speaker 1: trojan horse being used by the party boss is attempting

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Speaker 1: to steal the nomination. President Obama met yesterday with US

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Speaker 1: military commanders at the White House. The President says destroying

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Speaker 1: the Islamic State continues to be his top priority. Global

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Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty

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Speaker 1: four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

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Speaker 1: from around the world. I'm Michael bar Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John

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Speaker 1: Stash are done. Mike Mats figure to win a lot

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Speaker 1: of games this season, like they did in Kansas City

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Speaker 1: with brilliant pitching. Noah Synderguard was the only Met pitcher

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Speaker 1: to beat the Royals in the World Series, and he

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Speaker 1: and the bullpen shut him down in the first Mets

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Speaker 1: win of the scenes and two nothings. Syndergarden three relievers

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Speaker 1: combined to fan twelve and allow only three hits. Mets

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Speaker 1: now with a rare two day break home openers Friday,

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Speaker 1: another season opening lost for the Yankees. That's five in

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Speaker 1: a row, beaten by the Astros five three beating again

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Speaker 1: by Cy Young winner Dallas Kaiko, who ended their season

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Speaker 1: last fall. In the playoffs, Yanks were up to nothing,

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Speaker 1: but Houston with three on earned runs in the gate

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Speaker 1: sitting due to a delen Batansas air. He took the loss.

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Speaker 1: Same to tonight at the Stadium. Big went for the Islanders.

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Speaker 1: Down three one at league leading Washington, they won four three.

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Speaker 1: Thomas Hickey's goal midway through overtime puts the Islanders into

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. Rangers were damned to nothing and rallied past

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay three to Buffalo top the Devil's three to one.

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Speaker 1: The eleventh n C Double A championship and fourth in

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Speaker 1: a row for the Yukon women, and as usual it

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Speaker 1: was very easy. D two fifty one over Syracuse for

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. I'm John Stashdaywear. Thank you Jenne,

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Speaker 1: of course. So look at the Yankees yesterday and with

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Speaker 1: the temperatures in the thirties and the wind blowing in

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Speaker 1: nothing like baseball sitting outside and watching that has happened

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Speaker 1: before on opening days. Well, the weather will improved, we

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Speaker 1: hope the Yankees will. To This is Bloomberg Radio Worldwide.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to surveillance. I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: We're watching futures suggest we may get a higher open

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Speaker 1: this morning after two down days and some real gloom

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Speaker 1: in the markets. Right now, SMP features up by three points,

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Speaker 1: two tenths of eight percent, kind of a two tenths

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Speaker 1: move for Dow futures as well. They're up twenty six points,

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Speaker 1: the stock six hundred up a point in Europe three

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Speaker 1: tenths of eight percent. The news of the Maria course

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Speaker 1: fighter calling off its deal with Allergan Alegan shares now

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Speaker 1: approaching a two percent decline in pre market trading. Time

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Speaker 1: now for the Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report,

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Speaker 1: brought you by New Jersey Institute of Technology. You investing

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Speaker 1: more at Stories of Innovation dot n j I T

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Speaker 1: dot ETU. Thank you, Michael. Here's what's making news in science, technology, engineering,

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Speaker 1: and math. The concept of a cancer blood test is

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Speaker 1: either a multibillion dollar markets or a pipe dream. Investors

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Speaker 1: the likes of Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are betting

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Speaker 1: it's doable. Scientists have known for decades of tumors shed

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Speaker 1: bits of DNA that end up in the blood. Now

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Speaker 1: startups are beginning to identify those shreds of DNA with

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Speaker 1: so called liquid biopsies, less invasive alternatives to testing tissue samples,

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Speaker 1: and even bigger prize may be as simple to administer

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Speaker 1: yet all encompassing blood tests that would screen for every

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Speaker 1: kind of known cancer in the human body, even before

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Speaker 1: a person showed or felt any symptoms. Bazos, Gates and

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Speaker 1: others are investing hundreds of millions of dollars to make

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Speaker 1: sure such super screening is a reality. Boosters say if

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Speaker 1: they're successful, the markets could reach two hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: a year in sales. In the face of increasing government

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Speaker 1: requests for digital information and the rising threat posed by hackers,

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Speaker 1: WhatsApp is taking steps to make sure its users chats

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Speaker 1: are kept secret. The mobile messaging unit of Facebook has

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Speaker 1: updated its service to provide full end to end encryption,

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Speaker 1: and Samsung is deploying a new strategy that's being credited

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Speaker 1: for making its Galaxy S seven smartphone a surprise hit

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Speaker 1: since its debut in March, releasing it sooner and pricing

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Speaker 1: it cheaper sales running triple those of its S six

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Speaker 1: models in the same time frame. Last year, the world's

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Speaker 1: biggest smartphone maker scrapped its practice of raising prices with

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Speaker 1: each new model, employ long used by Apple. And that's

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Speaker 1: this morning's Bloomberg and j I t Stem report. Michael Babo,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Well by now you know uh

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Speaker 1: Ted Cruz won the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary. Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: won the Democratic primary. Economists says you myself tell you

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Speaker 1: all the time, don't make projections based on one set

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Speaker 1: of data. But there are people who are going to

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Speaker 1: try to read a lot into the results from yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Frank Newport is the editor in chief of The Gallant Pole.

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Speaker 1: He joined us now, and Frank, I wonder how much

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Speaker 1: we can read into this. The interesting note I saw

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Speaker 1: in the exit polls on the Republican side were that

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Speaker 1: of those who made up their minds more than a

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Speaker 1: month ago, Donald Trump won half, but among the six

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Speaker 1: who decided in the last month, Trump only won. And

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering if it's beginning to look like the anti

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Speaker 1: Trump efforts are starting to pay off. Well, I certainly could.

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Speaker 1: I saw those data as well. He's not very popular

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Speaker 1: even with Republicans, which is the key. Donald Trump he

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Speaker 1: has the most unfavorable to among people of his own

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Speaker 1: party of any candidate on either side. That would include Cruz,

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Speaker 1: K six, Sanders, and Clinton. So he does have a

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Speaker 1: significant negative base out there. They simply don't like the guy.

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Speaker 1: And it looks like it's kind of coalescing now around

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Speaker 1: interestingly Ted Cruz, who incidentally, his positions on many issues

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Speaker 1: are really out of sync with the American public. But nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: he loves he stands there is a as a anti

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Speaker 1: Trump at the moment. What does it look like to you?

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, uh, Trump lost a lot of delegates yesterday.

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Speaker 1: He won maybe only three in the final analysis, but

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Speaker 1: he still has a significant lead. Is he going to

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Speaker 1: be able to based on what you see in the

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Speaker 1: polls of the coming states, is he gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to get to the numbers he needs? Well? You know,

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Speaker 1: you just pointed out how much things change, and of

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Speaker 1: course everybody's focused two weeks away here, one week and

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Speaker 1: six days away on New York state, Trump's home state, right,

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Speaker 1: you think he would do well there, But I think

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Speaker 1: it's too early to tell how well he will do

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Speaker 1: there and whether we'll see the same kind of change

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Speaker 1: going on in New York State. But that's a real key.

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Speaker 1: People who look at these things say it's like fifty

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Speaker 1: fifty that he would arrive at the convention in Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: Ohio with enough delegates where there wouldn't be a very fascinating,

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Speaker 1: I should say, very fascinating and intriguing, contested convention. That's

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Speaker 1: an interesting point about New York State and it being

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Speaker 1: Trump's home state, because for a politician with an impact

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Speaker 1: on the state, you would think that there would be

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Speaker 1: a home state advantage. But Donald Trump is a businessman,

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Speaker 1: one who has his name on a lot of buildings,

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Speaker 1: but in at the same time also a joke to

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in New York State. So does

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Speaker 1: he really have a home advantage? Well, we'll see, you know.

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Speaker 1: You know, he certainly has been ahead in some polls,

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Speaker 1: but as we've talked about here, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of fluidity out there, and you know, let's talk

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Speaker 1: again on Monday night before and the New York primary

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Speaker 1: to see what happens. He is from there, I believe

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Speaker 1: he was born there, although in it in Floridy says,

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Speaker 1: I'm a Floridian, you know, because he had a home

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Speaker 1: down there in Palm Beats, so he kind of has

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Speaker 1: several different homes. But Cruz has certainly never had any

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Speaker 1: connection to Texas excuse me, from Texas, is never any

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Speaker 1: connection to New York. But again, um, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be something that's fascinating to watch on both sides because

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Speaker 1: of course Sanders was born in New York. Well as well,

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Speaker 1: I've been coming to the New York primary. Well, we'll

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Speaker 1: talk more with Frank Newport, the editor in chief of

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Speaker 1: The Gallop Pole, and we will move on to the

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Speaker 1: Democratic side because certainly some questions about that as well,

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Speaker 1: with Bernie Sanders, as he mentioned, originally from New York

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Speaker 1: now living for many years in Vermont, and Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 1: originally from Illinois, long time in Arkansas, a few brief

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Speaker 1: years in New York, but served several of those years

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Speaker 1: as a senator from New York. So who can call

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Speaker 1: it their home state and who gets the home state advantage?

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Speaker 1: All that coming up, and we'll take a look at

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Speaker 1: the what the exit poll saying people are thinking about

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Speaker 1: the candidates and the issues right now when we continue

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Speaker 1: all right now, the tenure note yield is moving higher

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Speaker 1: one point seven five, the five year at one point

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Speaker 1: two percent right now, and the two years seventy four

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Speaker 1: basis points. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio worldwide.

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Speaker 1: and it's up eight ten percent this morning. Songs rebounding

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Speaker 1: from a six week low. In Europe. We checked the

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Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: the decks in Germany is lower, down a tenth of

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Speaker 1: a percent, while the CAT in Paris is higher, up

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Speaker 1: four tenths percent, and the f T one hundred is

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Speaker 1: gaming six tenths percent. U S Dock Index futures are rising,

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Speaker 1: with SNP EVENI futures up four points now, eveny futures

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Speaker 1: up twenty seven and NAS doc E many futures up seven.

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Speaker 1: Ten year Treasury down eight thirty seconds, the yield one

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Speaker 1: point seven four percent, the yield on the two year

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Speaker 1: point seven three percent. Nim X screwed oil up two

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Speaker 1: point eight percent or a dollar one to thirty six

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Speaker 1: ninety two. A barrel co makes gold is down six

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Speaker 1: tenths percent or seven dollars sixty cents to twelve twenty

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Speaker 1: two and ounce the euro a dollar thirteen forty one,

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Speaker 1: the yen one ten point four three, and the Mortgage

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Speaker 1: Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose two point seven percent

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Speaker 1: last week. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Parabasca,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. We're talking about the results of

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Speaker 1: the Wisconsin primary and looking ahead to New York and

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Speaker 1: beyond with Frank Newport, the editor in chief of The

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Speaker 1: Gallop Pole. We talked something about the Republicans a few

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Speaker 1: moments ago. Let's ask you about the Democrats as we

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Speaker 1: had into New York. Interesting situation in that uh Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders a native New Yorker but has lived in Vermont

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Speaker 1: for many years. Hillary Clinton and native Illinois who lived

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Speaker 1: in Arkansas for a number of years before spending a

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Speaker 1: few years in New York. But as the Senator from

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Speaker 1: New York state, So does either one of them really

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Speaker 1: have a strong home court advantage in New York State. Well, Um,

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Speaker 1: as we've been talking about, things change rapidly, so I

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Speaker 1: think we'll see what happens over the next two weeks.

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Speaker 1: Clinton has been ahead, certainly in New York polls which

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Speaker 1: have been done to date, a lot of them. But

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Speaker 1: things change, and we've got one week in six days

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Speaker 1: to go. So what's going to be fascinating to watch

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Speaker 1: what happens in the fascinating state of New York and

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Speaker 1: to get close to that primary. When you look at

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Speaker 1: a a you look at polls, and you look at

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Speaker 1: how people are doing. How much UH does voters sentiment

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Speaker 1: matter in these kinds of cases versus UH organization, ground

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Speaker 1: games UH and UH endorsements that sort of thing. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think they both matter, even clearly in Wisconsin. I

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Speaker 1: think it could be argued that Crews had the endorsements

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Speaker 1: of people that mattered the governor and everybody else and

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Speaker 1: he won. It's hard to postulate causality for those things.

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Speaker 1: So I think they both matter. But what's fascinated about

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Speaker 1: primaries is there is no anchor for voters in a

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Speaker 1: general election. Of course, you've got Republicans and Democrats are

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Speaker 1: pretty well anchor. They're going to vote for the candidate

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Speaker 1: from their party. But when you're in a primary, voters

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Speaker 1: are very fluid. They can quickly change their mind because

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Speaker 1: it's all within their party. So that's why things change rapidly.

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Speaker 1: So the Democratic line there will be a gallop summit

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Speaker 1: May ten or twelve, Omaha, Nebraska. What millennials really want?

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Speaker 1: Do they want to vote for Secretary Clinton to be president?

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Speaker 1: Do we know? Uh? Certainly at this point they want

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Speaker 1: to vote for Bernie Sanders. Kay, phenomenon is phenomenal, but

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Speaker 1: they will come around. We find much more positive cross

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Speaker 1: relations between Sanders and Clinton than on the other side.

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Speaker 1: Sanders voters say, well, I kind of like Hillary, it

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Speaker 1: probably would vote for much less. So with to increuse

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Speaker 1: and give us an update then on turnout, because President

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Speaker 1: Obama certainly the first time around just to turnout was historic.

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Speaker 1: Do you just presume the turnouts that we've been seeing

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Speaker 1: will carry forward to November. Well, we'll see, you know.

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Speaker 1: Without Initially one would say without Barack Obama at the

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Speaker 1: head of the clinic is head of the ticket, you

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Speaker 1: would have some lower turnout. But if it's Trump on

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Speaker 1: the Republican side, there are indications you could have motivation

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Speaker 1: for turnout on the Democratic side. You know their efforts

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Speaker 1: now to try to mobilize Hispanics, for example, I Trump

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Speaker 1: is Atminy to come out to vote against him. Republicans

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Speaker 1: are more discouraged. Our data clearly show in our data

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Speaker 1: at this point, Um and Democrats are gaining on party

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Speaker 1: ideas of other things on those lines. So we're looking,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, at a situation where particularly Trump is

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Speaker 1: a nominee. You could have the kind of Barack Obama,

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Speaker 1: oh a turnout on the Democratic side. You can slice

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Speaker 1: and dice the exit polls a million different ways. Is

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Speaker 1: that's what the posters do? You ask many different questions

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Speaker 1: about people's views based on their demographics. But I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: is there any particular subset of the surveys that is

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Speaker 1: more important than others that really gives you a good

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Speaker 1: fix on what people are thinking. Well, acci polls are

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Speaker 1: fascinating for that reason, but I think there's state specific

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Speaker 1: in what Wisconsin voters who tend to be certainly more

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Speaker 1: white than you're going to see in New York and

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Speaker 1: certainly more liberal they're going to see in New York.

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Speaker 1: What they said or did in terms of what they

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Speaker 1: told posters when they exited the polls, so to speak,

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Speaker 1: may not apply in New York. I like to look

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Speaker 1: at our national data where we ask people why do

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Speaker 1: you support Bernie? Why do you support Trump? To try

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Speaker 1: to figure out what's going on there, and we find

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Speaker 1: out for Bernie Sanders, his support comes for his image,

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Speaker 1: in his personality, his caring for individuals, not for a

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Speaker 1: lot of specific policy positions. I think that's a weakness

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Speaker 1: for Bernie Sanders when people do get into his policy positions,

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Speaker 1: it looks like to me, based on all our gallup data,

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Speaker 1: he's way out of sync with a lot of American

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Speaker 1: public opinion. And that's probably going to become more evident

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Speaker 1: his things go on, okay than the money question here,

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Speaker 1: And you know, I don't know the date calendar, Michael,

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Speaker 1: whether it's New Yorker, Are there primaries after New York?

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Speaker 1: I don't even know. Does it continue, well, when does

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Speaker 1: it end? Well, we've got two conventions in July, one

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Speaker 1: in Cleveland, Philadelphia, and that's certainly where it may end.

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Speaker 1: The belief is people migrate to the middle. President Reagan,

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Speaker 1: I maybe is the modern beginner of this. Do you

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Speaker 1: just presume that the Democrats and the Republicans will migrate

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Speaker 1: to some mythical middle. Uh you mean the candidates themselves? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean when they moved to the general election,

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Speaker 1: they're obviously trying to affect the type of voters that

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Speaker 1: weren't primary voters. So they do clearly have to appeal

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Speaker 1: to a broader spectrum. And I think that's a liability

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Speaker 1: for Cruise, and it's a liability for interestingly, and it's

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Speaker 1: a liability for Sanders because those who have the extreme positions,

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Speaker 1: both Crews and Sanders are the most out of sync

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Speaker 1: with their positions with the American public than our Sander,

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Speaker 1: than our Clinton are are Trump really you would say

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Speaker 1: Cruiz is more out of sinc Than Mr Trump. Oh absolutely,

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Speaker 1: when you look at Cruises positions, they just lay it terrible.

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Speaker 1: Out of the idea of shutting down five government departments

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Speaker 1: of education totally rejected by the American public, idea of

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Speaker 1: abolishing the i R s rejected by the American public,

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Speaker 1: going to flat tax of ten publicly not interested. A

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Speaker 1: lot of things that Crews proposes about, you know, dractically

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Speaker 1: cutting back government. That when the public really get that

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Speaker 1: and they say no, no, no quickly, because I know

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Speaker 1: Michael wants to get in. Is Senator Cruz the establishment

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Speaker 1: of the GOP. Well, he's kind of occupying a role

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Speaker 1: at the moment of the anti Trump candidate. But no,

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Speaker 1: his positions are not established that his positions are way

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Speaker 1: out on the right, and Bernie Sanders are way out

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Speaker 1: on the left, either of the extreme candidates. Prusing Sanders,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure when your pulsters go out, people are telling

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Speaker 1: them it's the economy, stupid. But this year it seems

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Speaker 1: to be about not the specific status of the economy

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Speaker 1: so much as what's happened to the last ten years

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Speaker 1: with income inequality and wages and things like that. UM,

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Speaker 1: And I'm wondering, I'm looking at the daily Gallop survey

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Speaker 1: of US economic confidence or the last two weeks it's

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Speaker 1: gotten significantly better. Is the economy, the day to day

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Speaker 1: ups and downs of the economy going to play a

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Speaker 1: major role this year? Oh? It always does. Um, any

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Speaker 1: election is the economy and the major foreign policy things

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Speaker 1: that may be going on, like the Iraq War, Vietnam

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Speaker 1: if you go back to six seventy two. My analysis

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Speaker 1: of the data suggest, however, the big issue is the

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Speaker 1: role of government. That's where the differences are. That's where

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Speaker 1: the American public it is conflicted. That's where you've got

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Speaker 1: standard on the one side saying government should solve all

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Speaker 1: of our problems, and you've got crews on the other

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Speaker 1: side saying government is the problem. We got to shut

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Speaker 1: it down. That's the key issue. I think that this

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Speaker 1: election is going to pivot on what is the appropriate

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Speaker 1: role of government and how can the governments move effectively

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Speaker 1: and operate effectively. Before we let you go, I also

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Speaker 1: want to ask about the favorable unfavorable ratings of the candidates.

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Speaker 1: You've been doing this a long time, and I'm sure

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Speaker 1: you haven't ever seen anybody as disliked by the American

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Speaker 1: people as Donald Trump. But does that necessarily translate into

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Speaker 1: people voting against him? Can we take the unfavorable rating

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Speaker 1: as a measure of how you'll do in an election? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I think the unfavorable is more important than the favorable,

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Speaker 1: because the favorable you don't necessarily vote for somebody just

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Speaker 1: because you like them. But yeah, Trump sitting there with

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Speaker 1: this high and unfavorable overalls we've seen from any candidate

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Speaker 1: who got the nomination as long as we've been measuring

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Speaker 1: favorable in this way. Two thirds of the American public

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Speaker 1: when you say Donald Trump, so they haven't favorable opinion

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Speaker 1: of him, less than favorable opinion. And those are not

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Speaker 1: auspicious numbers to go out there and try to win

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Speaker 1: forty seven fifty of the popular vote, which you need

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Speaker 1: to win the election. If if a candidate is that

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Speaker 1: viewed that unfavorably, does that rub off on other people

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Speaker 1: down the ticket? That's the money question right now, isn't it? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you mean like congressional inc Can the Republicans lose the House? Um? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not an expert in all the you know, district

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Speaker 1: by district analysis of that, but clearly we wouldn't have

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Speaker 1: thought so, you know, six months ago if we've been talking.

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Speaker 1: But if it's a whiteout, you know, on the Democratic side,

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Speaker 1: anything could happen. Frank Newport is the editor in chief

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Speaker 1: of Gallup. Thanks for joining us this morning. Interesting results

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Speaker 1: yesterday Cruise Trumpty five, Governor Cacy hand fourteen percent. Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders on a percentage basis doing even better in defeating

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. But now we move on to New York,

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Speaker 1: what are they gonna do? They're gonna be like John Tucker?

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Speaker 1: Are they going to be like a Lexington Avenue shaking

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Speaker 1: hands when they'll be here as quickly as possible? Tucker?

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Speaker 1: The political advice everybody gives you if you're running for

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Speaker 1: office in New York is eat pizza with your hands.

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Speaker 1: That's true there it is fos eat Pizzas pizza with

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Speaker 1: your hands. Bloombergs your hands