1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: your bets. Its beat Joey P joe P Zapia. And 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 1: it's week two and it's Tuesday, so we're gonna take 4 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: a look at some of the data as we head 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: into week two of our wagering. Of course, the data 6 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: czar is here to break it all down. The King 7 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: of the nerds, and that's a good thing. Let me 8 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: tell you, I'm a nerd. Sam's a nerd, Sam Hoppin' 9 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: and you're a nerd too because you're hanging out talking 10 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 1: numbers with us. In terms of betting, Sam, it was 11 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: a wacky Week one as we always saw it. And 12 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: just so everybody knows too, I know, we do the 13 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: Survivor pool pick at the end of the show. Here 14 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: I got my forty nine ers. Sam originally did pick 15 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals, but I am in a Survivor pool 16 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,639 Speaker 1: with Sam. He is still alive. Not because he picked 17 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: the Bengals, because after the t Higgins news came out 18 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: and some more news came out, he did switch to 19 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: the Bucks. So I'm allowing you to buy back in 20 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: to our Survivor pool pick. You got off by the 21 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: skin your teeth hoppin'. 22 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: I do appreciate that. 23 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 3: I will keep as a buy back challenge and to 24 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 3: keep both the Bucks and the Bengals off of my 25 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 3: list for the rest of the season. It's you know, 26 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 3: it's tough because you do the show on a Tuesday 27 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 3: and we don't have a lot of injury reports. As 28 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 3: part of it was again we got the Higgins doubtful 29 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 3: and then eventually in active news, and then Jamar Chase 30 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 3: was questionable, not because of the contract, because of I 31 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 3: think it was food poisoning on Saturday that he had. 32 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 3: So it just wasn't quite sitting right with me, and Jamar. 33 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: Chase was sick. He just couldn't see a contract number 34 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: without enough zeros in it, and he just it was 35 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: making a meal. He just could not stomach it no 36 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 1: matter what. But again today we're going to take a 37 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: look at the futures market. Sam's gonna give us little 38 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 1: update on that. We'll give our Survivor pool picks at 39 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: the end of the show, and of course a lot 40 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: of the stats and there's a lot of injuries that 41 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: are gonna impact these games. We're gonna break that down 42 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: for you here don't forget to sink your sportsbooks for 43 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: free with the Betting Pros app, and of course subscribe 44 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: to the channel here at Betting Pros And when you 45 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: subscribe and you drop your comments below, you could win 46 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: this incredible signed Nick Chubb helmet. 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That's 51 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: what you do, and then head over to Bettingpros dot 52 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: com slash contest again, that's Bettingpros dot com slash contest. 53 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: Fill out that form and remember when you subscribe to 54 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: more things like our Betting Pros X and TikTok and Instagram. 55 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 1: The more actions you complete, the more entries you can 56 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: receive to win the Nick Chub helmet. That's how it works. 57 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: So get on board with their BP crew here and 58 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: we'll announcing the winner right here on this very channel. 59 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: So make sure you turn on those notifications ring the 60 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: belts let gos ding so you know if you're the 61 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: winner of the big Nick Chubb helmet giveaway. All right, 62 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 1: bp NFL Tuesday, Let's get after it hoppin, and let's 63 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: start here with some of the line movement we might 64 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: see this week. Let's start with Steelers and Broncos. Fun 65 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: last minute change, Russell Wilson wasn't playing quarterback, ended up 66 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: being Justin Fields over the weekend. How much does this 67 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: matter as long as bo Nick's still playing quarterback for 68 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. 69 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Pittsburgh quarterback situation is going to be interesting 70 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 3: to follow, because again, that was another one of those 71 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 3: late week things that popped up for Russell Wilson had 72 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 3: calf strain and suddenly Justin Fields was in this line 73 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 3: for the Steelers Broncos game right now is about three 74 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 3: across the board, with the Steelers favored on the road 75 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 3: in Denver. I haven't heard anything at this point as 76 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 3: to who's going to start for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but honestly, 77 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 3: I don't think it matters who does. I have both 78 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 3: of these quarterbacks rated about the same in my power rankings, 79 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 3: and so I think if they go with Wilson and 80 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 3: that shifts the line a little bit, that that may 81 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 3: be an overreaction. It'll be interesting to see if this 82 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 3: line gets on either side of the three points there. 83 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: I do think that depending on again which way it 84 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: does go, if it goes gets down to two and 85 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 3: a half with this low of a total, I love 86 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 3: the Broncos as a teaser leg teasing them out to 87 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 3: eight and a half and if it gets to three 88 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 3: and a half, then taking the Broncos with them. I 89 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: don't think the Seattle excuse me, the Pittsburgh offense is 90 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 3: as good as the Seattle offense that Denver played last week. 91 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 3: So this is one that I'm monitoring again open three. 92 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 3: It's sitting at three and just waiting to see who 93 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: they announced as quarterback for Pittsburgh. 94 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually have a strong feeling about this game 95 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: in a few ways. We talked about yesterday in case 96 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: you missed it, the look Ahead show for week too, 97 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson and I came out yesterday. Go peep that 98 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: really fun show, especially me teasing Andrew Moore about the 99 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: forty nine Ers and Jets which happened last night. Make 100 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: sure you tune in Thursday to see the live transfer 101 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: of funds from Ericsson's Venmo account to mine. It's gonna 102 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: be a good time. On the show. We're gonna do 103 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: it live on the program. But look, the Pittsburgh Steelers 104 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: defense is what matters to me. That pass rush. DJ 105 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: Watt looked fantastic bow Nick where he was rugged against 106 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks defense last week. I can't imagine what 107 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: the Steelers defense is gonna throw at him. So I 108 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: am very concerned. I like this three and I like 109 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: it where it is right now, and I like the 110 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: Steelers side of this game. I also Julia McLoughlin deebro 111 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 1: is making a point there where maybe you start to 112 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: cater to the strengths with a lowercase s of bow 113 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: Knicks and start to dump the ball off a little 114 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: bit more. Could you see maybe some props of McLoughlin 115 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: be interesting in some of those dump off passes. Potentially 116 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: this week, especially with that ferocious pass rush of the Steelers. 117 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 3: I think dump off past is I think rushing props 118 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 3: for bow Knicks as well. T J. Wats could be 119 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 3: in that backfield in less than a second. With how 120 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 3: well he played last week. He was wreaking havoc to 121 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: the Falcons offensive line, and Bonnicks has some speed, I 122 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 3: mean got out on a number of scrambles last week 123 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 3: I believe at thirty five rushing yards, So it'll be 124 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 3: interesting to see how much the books react to his 125 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 3: rushing props. I think his open at about sixteen and 126 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 3: a half last week, and does this go up to 127 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 3: the twenty five ish range for him knowing what he 128 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 3: could be? And again I think if the Steelers again 129 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 3: are able to get pressure on him, which I think 130 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 3: they are, then Bonick scrambling or having to dump the 131 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: ball off instead of targeting downfield is certainly in play. 132 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: Next one on our list is a marquee matchup. It's 133 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs. The chief looked 134 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 1: as good as anybody else and the Bengals looked as 135 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: bad as possible going into this matchup. So this is 136 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: a tough one because there's always that narrative of you know, 137 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow loves to be the underdog. Joe Burrow has 138 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: shown that he has not intimidated playing the Kansasity Chiefs 139 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: at any place, any time, anywhere. However, things did not 140 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: look good for the Bengals in this first effort at home. 141 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: The Bengals are always so starter, so is this just 142 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: another slow start out? Of the gate for the Bengals 143 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: in September where they're just sluggish there or is there 144 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: more going on here that meets the eye, And how 145 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: do you wager on this specific game going into week two? 146 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 3: Sam, This is definitely a tough one. I mean, this 147 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,679 Speaker 3: total is sitting at about forty eight and a half 148 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 3: points right now, opened at forty six and a half, 149 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 3: so has gotten bet up a little bit. I think 150 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: two years ago with these teams matching up, it's opening 151 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 3: in the fifties and maybe gets bet up to fifty 152 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 3: two and a half or something like that. But the 153 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 3: Bengals offense just didn't look great. Now the status of 154 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 3: their wide receivers is unknown. I would expect Chase will play. 155 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 3: Like I said, it seems like it was just a 156 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: food poisoning thing, which which caused his questionable tag. I 157 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 3: don't know why he would sit out in week two 158 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 3: because of a track situation while playing in week one. 159 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 3: T Higgins is a little more up in the air. 160 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 3: Has a hamstring injury, which is never a good sign. 161 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 3: That's one of those lingering things that even if he 162 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 3: does play, maybe isn't one hundred percent. And Joe Burrow 163 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 3: just doesn't look healthy either. I mean the risk thing, 164 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: he just wasn't playing I think as well as we've 165 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 3: seen him play in the past, and maybe it was 166 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 3: you know, so much foolish to think he was going 167 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: to play well right out of the gate, because, like 168 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 3: we've said, the steel or excuse me, the Bengals have 169 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 3: gotten off to slow starts in each of the past 170 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 3: several seasons. Now Joe Burrow has gone into the season 171 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 3: with injuries that each of the last couple of seasons. 172 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 3: But I think on the flip side of this, the 173 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 3: Chiefs defense is still a top ten unit in my mind. 174 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 3: They didn't agree play great against Baltimore. I mean Baltimore 175 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 3: was able to rush against Yeah. 176 00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: I think they did a pretty good job considering how 177 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: many things they had to and likely had a great game, 178 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: and you know, like you tip your cap to them, 179 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: but they did do a good job of shutting down 180 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: Andrews and you know, making other people beat them. And look, 181 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: some of the guys did beat them. But they are 182 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 1: the Ravens. They are the team that was you know 183 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: right there in the AFC think of it last year. 184 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 3: So I think again, with how good the Chiefs defense is, 185 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 3: we also saw the Bengals last week get run over 186 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 3: by the Patriots. They ran for one hundred and seventy 187 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 3: yards on the ground. I could see the Chiefs running 188 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 3: the ball a little bit more with Isaiah Pacheco and 189 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 3: having success doing so, which inevitably will slow the game 190 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: down a little bit. So we also don't know, finally 191 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 3: who what's going on with Hollywood Brown, whether he's going 192 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 3: to play this week or not. 193 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 2: Seems like it's. 194 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 3: Trending in the direction that he does, but how big 195 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 3: of an impact he'll have. So again, this has been 196 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 3: bet up a couple of points already. I'm wondering if 197 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 3: we've hit sort of that resistance point in the market 198 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 3: where maybe it starts to trickle back down a little 199 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 3: bit because some of these injury statuses. 200 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: All Right, the good news for the Bengals is they 201 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: were not the worst looking team in Week one. That 202 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: goes to the Carolina Panthers yet again. Congratulations Panthers. If 203 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: nothing else, you're consistent. They got their doors blown off 204 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: by the New Orleans Saints. It was an embarrassing contest. 205 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: Now in Week two they go to play the Chargers, 206 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: which I'll take the l on this one. I'm going 207 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: to own it. I thought the Raiders were going to 208 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 1: win that game. I thought they were going to cover 209 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: at the very least. Neither of those things happened, obviously, 210 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 1: and unfortunately, you know, they kind of handed that game away. 211 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: But the Chargers regardless, seem to have landed on something 212 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: with JK. Dobbins. He looked great. So looking at this 213 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: game right now, what are you paying attention to in 214 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: terms of some of the line movement that might happen 215 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: as the week goes on. 216 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,959 Speaker 3: So this game open with the Chargers favored by four 217 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,079 Speaker 3: and a half, They're now out to six and a half. 218 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 3: I'm really just wondering what the resistance point in the 219 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 3: market is at which people are going to be willing 220 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 3: to buy the Panthers Like they're just not good. I mean, 221 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 3: Bryce Young looks not great again. The Panthers just lost 222 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 3: Derek Brown, who is probably their best defender on the 223 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 3: defensive line at least, and the Chargers rushed extremely well 224 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 3: with a league leading eighty seven rushing yards over expectation 225 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 3: on Sunday against a solid Raiders run defense. I just 226 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 3: don't know why we would expect a different result on 227 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 3: Sunday for the Panthers with the Chargers coming into town. 228 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 3: I think the Saints have a slightly better defense than 229 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 3: what the Chargers have. But Joe Alt had a fantastic 230 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 3: game against Max Crosby. He didn't allow a single pressure 231 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 3: against him in eleven matchups. He allowed just three pressures 232 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 3: all day. I think this Chargers offense is going to 233 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 3: be able to move the ball extremely easily and at 234 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 3: least past the six and a half. 235 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: All right, let me ask you this, what's your threshold 236 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 1: for this game? Like, when are you starting to be 237 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 1: uncomfortable where you would consider the Panthers? Is it seven? 238 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: Is it seven and a half? Is it eight and 239 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: a half? I mean, honestly, I could see eight and 240 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: a half in this game and I wouldn't even blink 241 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: an eye about it. I don't think that's enough to 242 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: make me want to invest in the Panthers. But where 243 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: do you see. 244 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 3: It if I And this doesn't necessarily mean that I'm 245 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 3: buying the Chargers all the way out to this point, 246 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 3: but it's probably double digits. 247 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 2: I mean, this is yeah, I would agree. 248 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: Look, I'm not buying the Chargers either, Clearly, I picked 249 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: them to lose in Week one and you know what, 250 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 1: it wasn't like they made the most of opportunities that 251 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: the Raiders handed them on a silver platter. So give 252 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: them that they took their care of it. They are 253 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: going to go on the road. Here charge on the 254 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: road historically. Also, you know, sometimes not the best situation. 255 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: But the Panthers just looked so completely bereft of any 256 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: sort of continuity on offense or defense. Like, everything just 257 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: looked bad. Everything looked bad, and that's that's tough to 258 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: recover from. I think you're right, Double. It sounds like 259 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: maybe when you start to consider it. 260 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have anything good to say about the answers, 261 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 3: it's your mom. 262 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: You're right. If Sam's mom said, if you don't have 263 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 1: anything nice to say, say nothing at all. But it's 264 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: a podcast. They gotta say something, all right. Before we 265 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: get into some of the future's looks and more of 266 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 1: our show today, I want to talk to you folks 267 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: about edge If you're looking for a way to get 268 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: cash back to loan funds into your favorite sportsbook or 269 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: daily fantasy site, our partner, edge Boost, the financial platform 270 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: for smart betters, allows you to do just that. Here's 271 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: how it works. You go to bettingpros dot Com slash 272 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,599 Speaker 1: edge and you enter your information to sign up for 273 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: their digital visa debit card. 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All right, let's go Sam, let's 304 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: sign up for some of our football here, and let's 305 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: talk about the futures market, because there's something brewing at 306 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: MVP that's got your eyes. 307 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 2: You know, last year on our podcast, I chited this 308 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: guy to win the MVP. He did not. 309 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 3: He came up short because of a couple of poor 310 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 3: late season performances. But I'm going back to the well 311 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 3: with Dak Prescott, and I know it's only one week. 312 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 3: He didn't have a great game, but he was playing 313 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 3: what was still I think a great Browns defense. And 314 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 3: like I said, he could have been the MVP last 315 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 3: year if not for a couple of poor late seasons performances. 316 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 3: But this award is highly narrative driven. Three of Dallas's 317 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 3: final six games are standalone game, so they've got Thanksgiving, 318 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 3: They've got a Monday Night Football on Sunday Night Football. 319 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 3: They also play the Eagles in the late afternoon slot 320 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 3: I believe in week seventeen. So they're going to be 321 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: in the eyes of the voters quite a bit without 322 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 3: any other distractions, and I think they're going to be 323 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 3: in contention for winning the NFC East, potentially the number 324 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 3: one seed in the NFC. And I think this team 325 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 3: is just going to rely on Dak Prescott to carry 326 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 3: the load on offense. They're not giving him much support 327 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 3: in the way of the rushing game. He needs Ceedee 328 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 3: Lamb to stay healthy. That's obviously a huge key, and 329 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 3: I think again maybe the voters say, well, outside of 330 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 3: Ceedee Lamb, he didn't get any help. I mean, Jake 331 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 3: Ferguson is hurt, but Brandon Cooks is not what he 332 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 3: used to be. Jalen Tolbert is a huge question mark. Again, 333 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 3: Zeke and and Rico Dawdell are not giving him much 334 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 3: from rushing productions. 335 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 2: So I just I just looked at this again. 336 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 3: I was looking at the MVP market just to see 337 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 3: like where things have shaken out. I mean, he's behind 338 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 3: Joe Burrow, who, like I said, I don't see whether 339 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 3: he's going to get healthy anytime soon. You know, he's 340 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 3: right around Purty and Golf, which doesn't really make sense 341 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 3: to me. I just think if the Cowboys are going 342 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 3: to succeed, it's going to be because of Dak. I 343 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 3: think there are other players again. You know, with Purdy, 344 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: there's going to be the narrative of well, you know, 345 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 3: did Kay Shanahan boost him? You know, he's got all 346 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 3: these playmakers, the same stuff from from last year. 347 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: You know, what's the same thing with GoF Purdy's not. 348 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to pause for a second here, 349 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 1: because if CMC misses extended period or he has an 350 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: incomplete season and Purdy carries him to that division, I 351 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 1: think that is a narrative worth watching. It's not one 352 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: that I'm buying in do necessarily, but I think it's 353 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: worth watching. What about the Jordan Love injury too. A 354 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: lot of people are in on Jordan Love going into 355 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:08,719 Speaker 1: this year as an MVP candidate. Does the time missed 356 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 1: for him, which is gonna be anywhere from you know, 357 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: two to four maybe even more weeks, does that crush him? 358 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: Or does the narrative Bill because look, he's playing through 359 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: the MCL, he's wearing this giant brace, and he's coming 360 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: back early. Which way do you see this one working out? 361 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 3: I do think that's not a bad way to do it. 362 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 3: I mean it's one hundred and fifty to one right 363 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 3: now in. 364 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: What it's going to after Wow. 365 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 2: Which again is a huge bet on the injury. 366 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 3: It's, you know, looking at all of the other player performances, 367 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,959 Speaker 3: I think, if I'm gonna bet another MVP and this 368 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 3: is much shorter odds, He's currently second in odds behind 369 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes. But it's Josh Allen. I mean this, This 370 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 3: Bill's team is not succeeding without Josh Allen. And he 371 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 3: put up two passing touchdowns in two rush touchdowns. I believe, 372 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 3: for the fourth time in his career, has the most 373 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: number of those games, tied with I believe Steve Young 374 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 3: all time, and he's just again the whole fan of 375 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 3: is fine, I'll do it myself mode right now. And 376 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 3: again it's a similar situation to Mahomes last year where 377 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 3: he doesn't have a great surrounding cast, where if he 378 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 3: does put up some gaudy numbers, then it's going to 379 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 3: be because of Allen. 380 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 1: All Right, let's talk about the stats, Sam, they're going 381 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: to impact Week two in the NFL, and let's start 382 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: with Lamar Jackson. Lamar did not practice on Monday, but 383 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: everything's fine, just a little soreness for Lamar Jackson. He's 384 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: going to pay himself. It's a long season, Lamar. We 385 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: want you healthy every single Sunday, so do whatever you 386 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 1: need to do. But you see some opportunity in this 387 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: market when it comes to the rushing total for Lamar Jackson. 388 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: So let's break that down, Sam. 389 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at the over if it is around 390 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 3: the mid to low fifties for him. I just think 391 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 3: the pressure that Kansas City got on him with their 392 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 3: pass rush and playing great coverage down the field forced 393 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 3: him to scramble a ton. According to Next Gen Stats, 394 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 3: he scrambled on nineteen and a half percent of his dropbacks, 395 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 3: which is the third highest rate for him in a 396 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: single game since twenty twenty one. He's going to be 397 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 3: getting a lot of pressure again from Max Crosby and 398 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 3: Christian Wilkins this week against Las Vegas, because in my eyes, 399 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 3: this is a bottom eight offensive line with the way 400 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 3: it's currently composed. 401 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 2: They had a lot of. 402 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 3: Turnover in the offseason and they just don't have it 403 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 3: together right now. I think the game script could force 404 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 3: Lamar not to have to drop back. They are I believe, 405 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 3: nine and a half point favorites right now, so he 406 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily have to scramble in that situation, which is 407 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 3: why I said I'm targeting these overs if they're in 408 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 3: sort of the mid to low fifties. But again, this 409 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 3: could be a situation where you're potentially targeting the alt numbers. 410 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 3: I do think Las Vegas could be a little bit 411 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 3: better offensively this week than they were this past week. 412 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 3: I don't have a lot of hope for the Ravens 413 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 3: defense right now either. I know they played the Chiefs 414 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 3: last week, who is my top graded offense right now, 415 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 3: but I similar situation where they had a lot of 416 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 3: Tone Rover in that defense. 417 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: All right, moving on to the next one on our list. 418 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 1: When it comes to the stats for week two. The 419 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: obviously back to the Seahawks. We discussed them a little earlier. 420 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 1: We touched on how that looked in this last game 421 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 1: against the Broncos a week one. What do you see 422 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: with the Seahawks and how they're running this new offense? 423 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: Because it's a lot of new here with Seattle, new coach, 424 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,159 Speaker 1: new OC, new system, a lot of new and it 425 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: takes sometimes the new for all of us to kind 426 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: of figure it out and for the players to get 427 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: comfort with everything. So what did you see in week 428 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: one that you think we can make some money on 429 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: a week two? 430 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, So all the same players, but a brand new scheme, 431 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 3: bringing in Ryan Grubb the college ranks to be their 432 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 3: offensive coordinator for Mike McDonald. But in Week one, Seattle 433 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 3: used motion on seventy eight point nine percent of their 434 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 3: place against Denver. This is the highest mark for them 435 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 3: in a game since twenty twenty one. This is not 436 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 3: your father's Seahawks offense anymore. And I think this is 437 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 3: just a big boon to Seattle's offense. I'm upgrading them 438 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 3: a little bit knowing that Grub has the goods I 439 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 3: think he is going to bring a positive scheme to 440 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 3: this offense. So for me, I'm targeting their team totals 441 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 3: the next several weeks because they play some defenses that 442 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 3: either have a solid coverage or a solid pass rush, 443 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 3: but not great for both until they play San Francisco 444 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 3: in Week six. So I love their team total this week. 445 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 3: I love it in future weeks as well, assuming this 446 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 3: offense continues to click. And again, obviously Seattle have the 447 00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 3: two safeties on Sunday, but that's more of fun of 448 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,360 Speaker 3: them starting with some terrible field position. So if their 449 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 3: defense continues to improve as well, get them some more 450 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 3: advantageous field position, they'll they'll be able to score with 451 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 3: a little bit more easy all. 452 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: Right, some good stuff there from Sam Hoppin. One more 453 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: game to talk about before we get to the Survivor 454 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 1: Pool pick of the week. I want up with the 455 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: Packers here and the Colts. Tough times there in Green Bay. 456 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: I hope you're, you know, hanging in there, Sam Hoppon. 457 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 1: But it's gonna be Malik Willis at least for now, 458 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: which means obviously we're gonna be pivoting to a lot 459 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: more running of the football. I think Wilson with some 460 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: low numbers are really interesting to watch what those numbers 461 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: are when they come out with him for props, the 462 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,479 Speaker 1: low numbers are easy to hit, maybe even easier than 463 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: the Jacobs numbers. Possibly, we'll see what the numbers are 464 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: when they come out. But let's talk about this because 465 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: this is not going to be the Jordan Love Green 466 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 1: Bay Packer offense. Unfortunately, it could be in a lot 467 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: of unders for guys like Jayden Reed, Christian Watson. I'm 468 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 1: fascinated to see what those props look like. I imagine 469 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 1: Vegas is going to take a sledgehammer to those numbers 470 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: and just disintegrate them, making it kind of tough. I 471 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: still might go under anyway. But what are you looking 472 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 1: for specifically in this game here? Because Indianapolis, look, it 473 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: was a tough matchup at home, they kind of got 474 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: a break here to go play Green Bay in week 475 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: two without Jordan Love. This was a great chance here. 476 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: I don't want to say must win because it's week two, 477 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: but certainly a great opportunity to get a win where 478 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 1: maybe you didn't think you were going to get one. 479 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: What do you think about this one? 480 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 3: So I'm looking at Green Bay's rushing like you mentioned, 481 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 3: specifically with Josh Jacobs and again without Jordan Love, I 482 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 3: think we see Green Bay probably lean into the run 483 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 3: a little bit more. Despite a poor start last week 484 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 3: in Brazil, Green Bay actually posted a league best four 485 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 3: point zero rushing yards over expectation per carry in Week one. 486 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 3: They will now play a Colt team that just allowed 487 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 3: the Texans to pile on two hundred and thirteen rushing 488 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 3: yards with someone in Joe Mixon who I thought was 489 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 3: past the prime of his career. Josh Jacobs handled eighty 490 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 3: one percent of the team's carries in Week one. I 491 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 3: think they're going to feed him and keep him as 492 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 3: the primary guy. I don't think they brought him in 493 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 3: and paid him not to be that guy. Will see 494 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 3: what happens with Marshawn Lloyd, who is the rookie that 495 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 3: they drafted who wasn't active for Week one. But I 496 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 3: think at worst it drops down to like a seventy 497 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,880 Speaker 3: five percent rush share for him. I think I'm going 498 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 3: to play some Josh Jacobs alt lines, you know, one 499 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty five plus rushing yards. I expect they 500 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 3: open this up possibly in the. 501 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 2: Seventies for his rushing yard. 502 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 3: I think it's going to be pretty high, expecting that 503 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 3: green Bay does run it a ton, But the Colts 504 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 3: only ran forty four offensive plays last week, which is 505 00:25:54,720 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 3: the twelfth lowest among across over two thousand team game 506 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:05,439 Speaker 3: since twenty twenty. So they are a very boom bust offense. Obviously, 507 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 3: they have the long touchdowns and long passing plays because 508 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 3: of Anthony Richardson, but that just means it's getting back 509 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 3: into the hands of the other offense that much quicker, 510 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 3: and so that could sort of offset the play volume 511 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 3: decrease that green Bay might have by being less efficient 512 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 3: if the Colts continue to play fast and have some 513 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 3: of these explosive plays. 514 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 1: All right, it's time to get to Week two and 515 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 1: advance in the survivor pools. I'll go first this week. 516 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 1: Take some pressure off Sam. And like I said at 517 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: the top of the show, Sam is an honest guy, 518 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: very very forthcoming. 519 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 4: Here. 520 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 1: He was on the Bengals like everybody was on the bank. 521 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:46,959 Speaker 1: Even I said, love the Bengals is an easy one. 522 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to go with the easy one because 523 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: easy one tends to never work out, damn it. I 524 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: kind of liked being right because it was my Patriots. 525 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 1: When the upset special, there was kind of fun Sam. 526 00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 1: I could not believe on Sunday morning that number was 527 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 1: evan and a half. I'm mad because I saw the 528 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 1: seven and a half while I was live on TV 529 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: and I didn't bet it, and I was just and 530 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: I forgot to go back and bet it and I 531 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: was like, oh man, seven and a half of just 532 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 1: way too many points and I gotta get more post 533 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: it notes. But anyway, Week two, keeping it simple, the 534 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: Raiders kept giving away games. I don't think Gardner Minshew 535 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 1: and the Raiders are gonna go into Baltimore and win. 536 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: So do I want to use up the Ravens early? No, 537 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: but considering I would say, what a third, maybe even 538 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 1: the half, if not more of Survivor Pools. I don't 539 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 1: know what the dad is. You might actually have this 540 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 1: how many people got eliminated in Survivor Pools based on 541 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,959 Speaker 1: the Bengals. I'm keeping it simple, stupid the kiss method, 542 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 1: and I'm going right to the Baltimore Ravens and home. 543 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,640 Speaker 1: Baltimore's a tough place to play home opener. They got 544 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: some extra rest time. I think you'll get a little 545 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: bit more Derek Henry in this game that he got 546 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: in Week two, and hopefully a little bit more Mark Andrews. 547 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 1: And when you compare all the you know, possibilities of 548 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: what they could do on offense when everybody's a little 549 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: bit more seasoned in practice and working together, I think 550 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,199 Speaker 1: that can all mean good things for the Ravens. So 551 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 1: give me the Ravens week two. Keeping it simple, Sam, 552 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 1: where are you going for your Week two Survivor pool pick? 553 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 3: But yeah, real quick, I don't think the Ravens this 554 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 3: early in the season is a bad move because while 555 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 3: I mentioned that Lamar Jackson was rushing a ton, he 556 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 3: was taking a ton of hits too, And I don't 557 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 3: think that I don't sustainable for them. You know, maybe 558 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 3: he misses a game or two against some of these 559 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 3: easier opponents, which makes you less confident in taking them 560 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 3: later on. But I'm going with again to keep it simple, 561 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 3: stupid method, I'm taking the Chargers. We talked about this 562 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 3: game earlier. I don't care what the line like. Obviously 563 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 3: you don't have to pick against the spread, but the 564 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 3: Panthers are my lowest rated team. I liked what Jim 565 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 3: Harbad did in Game one with the Chargers. I think 566 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 3: their offense is a little bit better than what some 567 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 3: people might have expected going into the season. 568 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 2: So enough is enough to take care of business. Voice. 569 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like it's gonna be whoever plays the 570 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers for the next few weeks. But I'm going 571 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: to not take the low hanging fruit this week on that. 572 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 1: Not that I think the Panthers are gonna win, but 573 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I'm gonna save that. I think I 574 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: get one out of the Ravens first and then go 575 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: against the Panthers another time. Sam hopping great stuff as always. 576 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 1: You can check out all his stuff on bettingpros dot 577 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: com too. He's always got amazing articles. Follow him on 578 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: X two because he does fantastic work there. He's got 579 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 1: all these numbers that can really help inform not just 580 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 1: your fantasy investments, but also your wagering investments too. And 581 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: of course, don't forget to download the Betting Pros app. 582 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 1: Be sure to sync your sports books for free, and 583 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: check out some of the custom betting systems out there too. Sam, 584 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 1: you can probably talk about the betting systems better than anybody. 585 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: Break down real quick, you know, how do you approach, 586 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 1: you know, your betting systems. How people can kind of 587 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 1: create their own on the app, because this is one 588 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,479 Speaker 1: of these really cool features that the Betting Pros app offers. 589 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: A lot of people really are still learning about some 590 00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 1: of these cool tools that we have. 591 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I do think it is a really cool 592 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 2: way to you. 593 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 3: Know, sort of back test some some theories you might have. 594 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 3: That's one of the challenges in modeling it. And this 595 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 3: is obviously not necessarily creating a you know, a linear 596 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 3: regression model by any means, but it's again a way 597 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 3: to see, if you know, over a longer sample size, 598 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 3: which I think is the key part with some of 599 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 3: these systems is getting a big enough sample to see, okay, 600 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 3: over the long term, are these trends really playing out? 601 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 3: So just throwing stuff at a wall just to see 602 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,800 Speaker 3: what sticks and see and figure out what maybe correlations 603 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 3: might or might not exist that you wouldn't have previously 604 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 3: thought of. 605 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: Look, you can get a free look at those betting 606 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: systems right now if you haven't downloaded the app before, 607 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: you get a free trial Betting Pros premium for a 608 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 1: few days there, So check that out again. Download Betting 609 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: Pros wherever you get your apps and make sure you 610 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: sink your sportsbooks for free. Mind you, and use the 611 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 1: tools to start betting smarter or not harder and somebody 612 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 1: win that Nick Chubb helmet. Will you go to Betting 613 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: Pros dot com slash contest fill out the form, follow 614 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 1: us everywhere, subscribe to the YouTube channel. Drop your comments 615 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: below too. When do you think of some of the 616 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: stats that Sam has thrown out? What are your favorite 617 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: stats of week two that you are hammering home? And 618 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,240 Speaker 1: how many games will the Carolina Panthers loose in twenty 619 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 1: twenty four? That could be a very very big number, 620 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 1: very high number that'll do it for us, but the 621 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,479 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Sam Hopin. I'm 622 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: Joey p. We'll see you next time. 623 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 2: Kids. 624 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 625 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 626 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 627 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 628 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 629 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros