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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey Paige, joe Pizerpia.

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Speaker 2: And today we're gonna take a look at the NFL

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Speaker 2: preseason and wait, wait, wait, don't go anywhere.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to hear you.

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Speaker 2: Saying, ah, the preseason's too volatile. Things are crazy. I

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Speaker 2: don't know how to wager it.

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Speaker 1: That's what we're here for.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna take you through that and tell you some

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Speaker 2: of the hints with certain teams, tell you what to

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Speaker 2: look for in preseason wagering, how to find some opportunities

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Speaker 2: to make some money. Because NFL season is here, and

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Speaker 2: I can't think of a better person than my good

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Speaker 2: friend from the Action Network. Of course, he's one of

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Speaker 2: the top five rankers in the history of Fantasy pro

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Speaker 2: side too, so he knows the thing about fantasy. He

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Speaker 2: knows a lot of things about wagering. He's from the

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Speaker 2: Action Network itself, Chris Raybon. Follow him on the Twitter

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Speaker 2: machine at Chris Raybon. It's a pretty easy thing to remember.

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Speaker 1: Raybon. It's so good to see you, man.

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Speaker 2: It's been far too long, and I know this is

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Speaker 2: like people say, it's the calm before the storm, but

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Speaker 2: not for guys like us, like this is the storm,

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Speaker 2: we're in it. It's going to be this until probably

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Speaker 2: you know, straight through January something. But the one thing

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Speaker 2: that always happens this time of year is you get

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Speaker 2: all this buzz going on with these guys in camp.

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Speaker 2: People get excited about football, and then they get excited

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Speaker 2: about betting. But the problem is they don't understand what

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Speaker 2: to do when it comes to preseason betting because it

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Speaker 2: is indeed a crazy market because you don't know how

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Speaker 2: long guys are gonna play. We have a lesser preseason

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Speaker 2: that we used to, so the patterns have changed. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, Chris, what's the first thing that comes to

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Speaker 2: your mind too? When people say preseason NFL betting? What

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Speaker 2: is the first thing that pops into your head in

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Speaker 2: terms of the best.

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Speaker 3: Approach the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 2: And you're representing today and why the Baltimore Ravens for

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Speaker 2: those people who might not.

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Speaker 4: Know, man, because obviously I think most people understand that

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Speaker 4: generally teams aren't really trying to win in preseason. They're

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Speaker 4: more you know, they're going to try to see certain

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Speaker 4: players in certain plays. You know, certain situations, they're kind

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Speaker 4: of going about it more.

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Speaker 3: Like a glorified scrimmage.

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Speaker 4: But for whatever reason, the Ravens under Harbaugh just have

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Speaker 4: been the polar opposite all time. They are forty three

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Speaker 4: and twelve straight up and thirty eight sixteen and one

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Speaker 4: against the spread in the preseason. Now that's all cool

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Speaker 4: and whatnot, right, but since twenty sixteen, so we're talking

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Speaker 4: seven years now, really six because there was no preseason

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Speaker 4: in the COVID year.

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Speaker 3: But since twenty sixteen, they.

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Speaker 4: Are nineteen three and one against the spread, twenty three

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Speaker 4: and zero straight up. They have not lost a preseason

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Speaker 4: game since twenty fifteen. So even if you were betting

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Speaker 4: their money lines over that time, which you know a

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Speaker 4: lot of people don't like to bet money lines, you

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Speaker 4: would still have a seventy nine percent ROI pens in

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Speaker 4: one in line every time since twenty sixties. So Baltimore,

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Speaker 4: they you know, they just it. Just when you watch

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Speaker 4: them play number one, they usually have good depth, like

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Speaker 4: they're usually you know, the GM, whether it's uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: the current guy Nosa before that, they always tend to

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Speaker 4: assemble good roster depth. Backup quarterbacks tend to be solid

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Speaker 4: and for what it seems like they just actually want

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Speaker 4: to win, Like maybe Harbough just wants his guys to

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Speaker 4: you know, learn how to win in the preseason. But

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Speaker 4: this team consistently wins like no other. So that's always

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Speaker 4: my first thing to tell people about betting a preseason.

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Speaker 4: You must be aware of the Baltimore Ravens. Do not

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Speaker 4: bet against them.

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Speaker 2: Do you think the market's going to eventually now start

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Speaker 2: to adjust to that, like they are looking at this

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Speaker 2: this Ravens track record and how hard they play and

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Speaker 2: how hard they you know, they push those guys early

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Speaker 2: in the year. Do you think they're finally gonna make

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Speaker 2: the adjustments because it seems like the books have not

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Speaker 2: yet done.

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Speaker 4: So it's just really tough to make the adjustment when

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Speaker 4: you're twenty three and oh, you know, I think the spread, yes,

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Speaker 4: it's gonna probably.

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Speaker 3: Keep going, you know, inching higher and higher.

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Speaker 4: Like I've seen the Ravens with some you know minus

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Speaker 4: sixes and minus sevens here and there, and they still tend.

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Speaker 3: To cover those. So it's gonna be really hard for

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Speaker 3: the books to adjust.

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Speaker 4: But you know, if they're hanging a big line, I

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Speaker 4: would say, you know, get get the money line, get

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Speaker 4: it in some parlays, maybe a teaser, whatever you can

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Speaker 4: do to get money on the Ravens, whatever you feel

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Speaker 4: comfortable with.

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Speaker 3: But you you just have to back.

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Speaker 4: Them in some passion every time they're lasen up the

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Speaker 4: cleats in the preseason.

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Speaker 2: And if you're watching on our YouTube channel, you see

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Speaker 2: Ed ray bond Is representing the Ravens today. He's got

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Speaker 2: the old school Ray Lewis jersey on. And of course

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Speaker 2: make sure you do subscribe to our YouTube channel. Click

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Speaker 2: that little belt to let coos ding for notifications and

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Speaker 2: also well I want to hear from you guys. Always

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Speaker 2: drop comments full in the chat because we're giving way

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Speaker 2: a one year free premium subscription to Betting Pros Premium.

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Speaker 2: So you can go premium today at bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 2: slash premium or again take a shot, drop a name below,

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Speaker 2: drop some preseason love there. Tell Chris you know you

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Speaker 2: love his jersey, anything, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Next thing, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, you might get a one year free premium upgrade

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Speaker 2: to the best betting tools on the planet. We have

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Speaker 2: some incredible things going on here with the Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: appter you really got to check out, including the trackers,

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Speaker 2: including the ability to follow some of us and you

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Speaker 2: can follow even people in experts like Chris Raybond and

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Speaker 2: see all where those guys are betting and those gals

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Speaker 2: are betting, and then you can kind of, you know,

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Speaker 2: follow them along until you get it yourself. Now we

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Speaker 2: talk about motivation here. Obviously with the Ravens, they have

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Speaker 2: a lot. You know, Harbaugh knows what he wants to do.

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Speaker 2: He wants to get a seam ready for the NFL season.

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Speaker 2: Not every coach is like that. Not every quarterback situation

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Speaker 2: is the same either. You have a lot of these

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Speaker 2: quarterback rotations going on where you know, some of the

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Speaker 2: big time starters, they get a little tastier in week one,

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Speaker 2: if anything at all, then in week two you get

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Speaker 2: a little bit more obviously, but how important is that

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Speaker 2: quarterback rotation situation as well? When you're looking at trying

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Speaker 2: to figure out how you're going to invest in a

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Speaker 2: game in the preseason.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty massive because usually you're gonna have some sense

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Speaker 4: of how that rotation is gonna break down, and from

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Speaker 4: there it's just about kind of knowing your quarterbacks. You know,

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Speaker 4: whether you know it's you know, I tend to look

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Speaker 4: at a lot of the college numbers if they played

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Speaker 4: in preseason before I look at their older preseason numbers.

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Speaker 4: But however, you can kind of differentiate between these quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: You're gonna get a pretty good edge that way, especially

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Speaker 4: if you can accurately project, you know, how much they're

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Speaker 4: gonna play, and you have you know, like I might

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Speaker 4: just rank them by you know, like a yards per

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Speaker 4: projected yards per attempt or so, you know, something really

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Speaker 4: basic because it is preseason, but just to kind of

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Speaker 4: get a sense of, you know, who has the edge

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Speaker 4: and kind of put it together for four quarters. So

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Speaker 4: you got guys like, you know, again with the Ravens,

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Speaker 4: you know, a guy like Tyler Huntley, not a great

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Speaker 4: regular season or playoff quarterback, but still one of the

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Speaker 4: better backups in the league, so you see him in

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Speaker 4: the preseason. I always like guys that can move around

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Speaker 4: a little bit because I think there's you know, like

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Speaker 4: you don't know who they're going to be out there with.

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Speaker 4: You know, guys might not be able to pass block,

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Speaker 4: guys might not get open. So I always love guys

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Speaker 4: that can go off script. You know, Sam Howe comes

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Speaker 4: to mind. They don't have to be straight up, like

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Speaker 4: you know, super like Anthony Richardson type of guys, but

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Speaker 4: just guys who can scram. I think it is always

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Speaker 4: a plus in the preseason. So athleticism is another thing

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Speaker 4: that I like to look for with the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: And you also have defenses that haven't quite you know,

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Speaker 2: not all working in the right rotation together to the

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Speaker 2: communications not quite there on the defensive side, So that

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Speaker 2: makes those guys a little harder to contain, and people

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Speaker 2: sometimes are out of position and therefore some of those

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Speaker 2: big plays happen. You already talked about the Ravens is

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Speaker 2: the number one thing. I want to talk about another

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Speaker 2: thing too, which.

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Speaker 1: Is the difference between the road team and the hod

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Speaker 1: and team.

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Speaker 2: So in preseason when it comes to the NFL betting

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Speaker 2: that way, do you see any distinction between those things

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Speaker 2: and a way you want to approach preseason NFL betting

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Speaker 2: in terms of road versus.

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Speaker 4: Home Generally speaking, I think the one situation you tend

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Speaker 4: to see is when it's kind of a contrarian road play.

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Speaker 4: So you know, we have Action Labs here at Action Network,

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Speaker 4: and it's essentially you can go back and filter by

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Speaker 4: you know, pretty much any different type of game situation

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Speaker 4: going back over the last two decades, and what we

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Speaker 4: found is that when a road team in the preseason

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Speaker 4: is getting less than thirty five percent of the bets,

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Speaker 4: so you know, that's a pretty contrarian pick there, they

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Speaker 4: are hitting over seventy percent of the time. That's in

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Speaker 4: So another thing in preseason, I usually target non conference matchups. Now,

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Speaker 4: most matchups are non conference, but there's always a few

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Speaker 4: every you know that will be like you know, NFCNFC

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Speaker 4: or AFCNFC, But I like it when it's the non conference,

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Speaker 4: so I always filter for that, even though I would

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Speaker 4: say ninety percent are non conference anyway, but non conference

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Speaker 4: road teams getting thirty five percent of the bets or

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Speaker 4: less are hitting seventy one percent since two thousand is

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Speaker 4: Chris because so first of all, like I said, most

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Speaker 4: preseason matchups are non conference, but there's no there's a

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Speaker 4: there's just a lack of familiarity compared to let's say

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Speaker 4: a divisional matchup or even an intern conference matchup.

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Speaker 3: Or intra I guess it would be right in truck.

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Speaker 4: Conference match truck conferen Yes, you know, there's more familiarity there.

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Speaker 4: So even if the coaches aren't game planning as much

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Speaker 4: and whatnot. The players are going to be a little

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Speaker 4: more familiar with each other in those kind of matchups.

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Speaker 3: The coaches, what many times, will be a little more familiar.

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Speaker 4: So I just think the lack of familiarity tends to

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Speaker 4: help you know, underdogs, road teams, states, teams that you

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Speaker 4: wouldn't normally bet on, because the books, let's be honest,

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Speaker 4: you know, they're they're kind of they're they're not putting

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Speaker 4: too much effort into these preseason spreads. You know, they're

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Speaker 4: just kind of doing some basic math here and there

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Speaker 4: and and whatnot. So usually you're still going to find

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Speaker 4: the normal edges, you know, betting road teams, betting unders,

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Speaker 4: betting underdogs and things like that.

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Speaker 3: So that lack of familiarity, I think just puts it

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Speaker 3: over the.

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Speaker 2: Top that that's shocking to me in this day and age.

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Speaker 2: It's not shocking to me in the eighties and the

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Speaker 2: nineties when it was a little harder to get tape

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Speaker 2: on guys. But I mean, we can all get tape

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Speaker 2: on guys right now.

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Speaker 4: They're not really trying to use to take that's the thing.

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Speaker 4: So it's just it's literally down to the familiarity that

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Speaker 4: would have been there anyway, Like if you played a

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Speaker 4: team twice in the last three seasons or you know,

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Speaker 4: you know, three times in the last five years. It's

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Speaker 4: not that the coaches are going to give you all

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Speaker 4: this scouting. It's like the players are just naturally going

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Speaker 4: to be familiar, even some of the ones. You know,

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Speaker 4: the younger guys are going to be familiar with each

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Speaker 4: other because they might have and a lot of times

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Speaker 4: these preseas and matters are the same, like like the

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Speaker 4: Jets and the Egos play each other.

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Speaker 3: I feel like every preseason yet Giants.

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Speaker 2: So you know a lot of you know, location wise,

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Speaker 2: and who wants to travel, who doesn't want to travel,

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Speaker 2: and who has to travel because they're kind of you know,

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Speaker 2: where their camps are. So that certainly makes a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense to I want to talk you about the

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Speaker 2: magic number two because I feel like when you're looking

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Speaker 2: at some of these games, offense sometimes is a little

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Speaker 2: trickier to come by because number one, you have so

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Speaker 2: much different personnel moving in and out of these games.

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Speaker 2: Number Two, you have injuries that happen, and the guys

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Speaker 2: will get pulled immediately if they're important to the long

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Speaker 2: term solution to their season and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: which who you thought was playing is not playing and

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Speaker 2: now that offensive weapon is out? So is there a

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Speaker 2: certain number when you get to the unders that you're

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Speaker 2: looking for? And that's kind of that magical one where

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Speaker 2: you're like, hey, this is kind of more often than

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Speaker 2: not the way you want to go under X number

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Speaker 2: or over x number as opposed to you know, some

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Speaker 2: other situations that we look at in season where we

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Speaker 2: know some great offense are going to get together and

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Speaker 2: they're probably going to go well over that fifty and

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Speaker 2: a half mark or fifty one. But preseasons a very

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Speaker 2: different animal because you do typically get less scoring. But

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Speaker 2: where is that range for you?

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Speaker 4: The magic number for going under is thirty seven. So

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Speaker 4: we've seen going back to twenty fourteen, we've seen totals

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Speaker 4: of thirty seven or higher go under sixty one percent

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Speaker 4: of the time two oh one one thirty with eight

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Speaker 4: pushes covering by just under two points per game. You'd

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Speaker 4: have a seventeen percent ROI over that span if you

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Speaker 4: if you bet each one of those, and I think

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Speaker 4: you know, just kind of thinking about that, you know,

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Speaker 4: thirty seven, that's twenty to seventeen if it's a close game.

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Speaker 4: Most preseason games are you know, the spread usually is

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Speaker 4: within you know, two three four, So like a twenty

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Speaker 4: seventeen game, that's gonna push. But a lot of times,

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Speaker 4: you know, teams, you know, the field goal kickers, they're

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Speaker 4: trying out other you know, different field goal kickers, So

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Speaker 4: guys might miss field goals, guys might miss extra points.

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Speaker 3: You know, weird stuff happens. So I think when you

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Speaker 3: get above that.

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Speaker 4: Number of thirty seven, like now you get in a

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Speaker 4: thirty eight, like now you're you're asking for like a twenty,

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Speaker 4: like what twenty three seventeen or something like that, you know,

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Speaker 4: we're really looking for like forty at that point, because

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Speaker 4: you know, twenty to seventeen is still gonna go under

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Speaker 4: if it's above thirty seven.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's just kind of how I think

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Speaker 3: about it. You know, it's it's.

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Speaker 4: Gonna end in general, I think, you know, it's the

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Speaker 4: same principles apply as the regular season, where the average

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Speaker 4: better is gonna betten over, and especially with these low

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Speaker 4: looking numbers, you know, people are gonna see some of

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Speaker 4: these numbers, you know, like thirty eight, thirty nine, forty

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Speaker 4: and they're still going to go over, especially if you

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Speaker 4: know a good court not is supposed to get a

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Speaker 4: quarter or of action or so. But yeah, I think that,

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Speaker 4: you know, thirty seven is a pretty solid number and

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Speaker 4: it's been that way for a decade, and it's a

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Speaker 4: you know, under that that's when that's when it flips,

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Speaker 4: and that's when it's you know, if you are betting overs,

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Speaker 4: I would look for a number under thirty seven to

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Speaker 4: bet overs because it's really a big flip right at

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Speaker 4: thirty seven.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sixty percent of the time, it works all the time,

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Speaker 2: just like Paul Rudd's famous Colonna and anchorman. The other

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Speaker 2: thing is really important too, and I'm sure you'll test this.

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Speaker 2: We get so much news leading up to these games too,

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Speaker 2: where guys you think are going to play overs an

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Speaker 2: arm playing, and then that's going to get pack some

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Speaker 2: of these lines and things are going to change there

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Speaker 2: and the props are going to change. And you know,

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Speaker 2: the best way to stay on top of all that

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Speaker 2: in season or even preseason here, because there's so much

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Speaker 2: of that in preseason is using the Betting Pros app

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Speaker 2: So if you have that downloaded, you could set your

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Speaker 2: notifications so you know, you know when a player is out,

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Speaker 2: if that line is moved, if you made an investment,

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Speaker 2: or you've been waiting on a specific game because you're

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Speaker 2: waiting to see if a player is going to be

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Speaker 2: in or out, Like we know Joe Burrell's not gonna

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Speaker 2: be playing much as preseason. You know, is Mahome's gonna

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Speaker 2: be playing or two. We'll find out how that goes.

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Speaker 2: But all that line movement is crucial, and especially when

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Speaker 2: you're looking at somebody's magic numbers like Chris is talking about.

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Speaker 2: So when you have the Betting Pros app again it's

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Speaker 2: on Android, is on iOS, you're able to stay on

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Speaker 2: top of all this movement, set your notifications and then

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Speaker 2: you can just click right through. When you get that notification,

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Speaker 2: go place your bet and you'll find that best odds

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Speaker 2: for you too. So once you think all your sports books,

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Speaker 2: you can find the best odds for whatever one for

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Speaker 2: that specific game, for that specific prop, for that specific bet,

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Speaker 2: and you can make the most money that way. And

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Speaker 2: that's why we're trying to bet smarter, not harder over

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Speaker 2: here Betting Pros. That's what we're doing here.

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Speaker 1: Raybond, I know you've got a couple other things here too.

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Speaker 2: They're kind of your how tos, your must dos when

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Speaker 2: it comes to the preseason NFL. And the other one

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Speaker 2: is about outdoors and also some dogs and some home picks.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about this.

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Speaker 2: What's your number four on the list here as we

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Speaker 2: go through some of your how to's and what you

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Speaker 2: should be doing in NFL preseason betting.

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Speaker 4: So first halves are going to be overlooked a lot

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Speaker 4: of times, especially because in preseason and what tends to

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Speaker 4: happen is obviously the better players tend to play first

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Speaker 4: in the game. Like, no matter which preseason game is,

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Speaker 4: you're gonna start with the guys higher up on the

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Speaker 4: depth chart and gradually you know, go down the list.

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Speaker 4: So a lot of times, I think the public thinks that,

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Speaker 4: you know, it's going to be higher scoring earlier in

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Speaker 4: the game. And so what we've seen is sixty three

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Speaker 4: percent of the time outdoor first half unders have hit

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Speaker 4: when the home team is an underdog or a pick.

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Speaker 4: So as long as the home team isn't favored, and

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Speaker 4: that's because you know, there's really not a big home

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Speaker 4: field advantage in the preseason, but if you have a

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Speaker 4: home team, that's like an underdog or a pick. It's

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Speaker 4: probably because the road team is overvalue, right, because like

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Speaker 4: why how like what do you like, where are we

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Speaker 4: getting to like a road team favorite in the preseason

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Speaker 4: when all these like scrubs are playing. It's probably like

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Speaker 4: if you know, if like Patrick Mahomes or or like

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Speaker 4: a Joe Burrow, like you said, somebody like that is

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Speaker 4: you know, is on the road team and they're giving them,

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Speaker 4: you know, twenty five percent of whatever there were to

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Speaker 4: the spread, that could change things a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of times it's good to fade that.

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Speaker 4: And generally you always want to kind of fade the

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Speaker 4: public more often than not, because that's it's a market

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Speaker 4: and that's how you're going to get more value. But

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Speaker 4: sixty three percent at the time one oh three sixty

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Speaker 4: one and three first half outdoor unders when the home

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Speaker 4: team is not favored since two thousand and five, So

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Speaker 4: we've got a pretty pretty big sample size for that one.

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Speaker 3: And as far as.

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Speaker 4: The last one, you know, non conference underdogs very small

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Speaker 4: short non conference dogs plus two or less hit about

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Speaker 4: sixty one percent of the time. And again I just

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Speaker 4: like to filter for non conference just because when I

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Speaker 4: look at the conference it's not as the trend is

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Speaker 4: not as strong, but yeah, sixty one percent of times

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Speaker 4: with a non conference dog of two or less, uh is,

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Speaker 4: it is playing in the preseason, so just kind of

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Speaker 4: goes along with what we kind of do in the

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Speaker 4: regular season.

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Speaker 3: Two. You know, we're usually looking at dogs, unders and

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Speaker 3: things like that.

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Speaker 2: These are amazing and this is why I wanted to

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Speaker 2: have you on first, because we're going to be going

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Speaker 2: through every week of the preseason here on Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: The first time we're really doing this here, you know,

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Speaker 1: all season long.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm gonna be with you here in the NFL season,

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Speaker 2: So it's the first time we've really ramped up our

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Speaker 2: coverage here a Betting Pros during the NFL season too.

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Speaker 2: Every single day we're gonna be talking wagering, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: be talking college football, we're gonna talking NFL football, and

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be doing preseason NFL stuff in the weeks ahead.

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Speaker 2: So make sure again subscribe wherever you get your podcast

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Speaker 2: to Betting Pros, and also make sure you click that

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Speaker 2: little bell to the cos ding on YouTube when you

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Speaker 2: subscribe there. Also because we're gonna be doing live streams here.

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Speaker 2: We want to interact with you all. We're gonna continue

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Speaker 2: to build this betting pros community, and I love that

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Speaker 2: Chris has really set us up with five really important

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Speaker 2: things to watch for. The one is the easiest one,

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Speaker 2: the Ravens. I mean, that seems pretty easy to me.

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Speaker 2: Just find the Ravens to bet the Ravens seventy eight percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 2: That's that's a pretty good number there that Chris is

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Speaker 2: are on out there, the road team getting less than

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Speaker 2: thirty five percent of the bets in non conference, then

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Speaker 2: that number of thirty seven, that magic number looking for

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Speaker 2: that if you see the thirty seven or higher, you're

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Speaker 2: looking for the under.

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Speaker 1: Sixty percent of the time Ravon saying that hits.

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Speaker 2: And then you have the first half under outdoors, and

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Speaker 2: you also have the non conference dogs.

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Speaker 1: Two at plus two or less, and again you.

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Speaker 2: Would think they would care a little bit more, But

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Speaker 2: at this point in time, it seems like teams are

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Speaker 2: still more concerned with getting their own systems up and

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Speaker 2: running as opposed to trying to stop someone else's.

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Speaker 1: And I think at the end of the day, that's.

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Speaker 2: Kind of what preseason is about for these coaches, for

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Speaker 2: these players, and for these coordinators too. Now, Chris, I

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Speaker 2: couldn't let you go without talking little futures and having

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Speaker 2: some fun here with you. And I know, just like me,

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Speaker 2: you've already made some wages or you're looking at a

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Speaker 2: couple things that you think are really interesting. So I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about your three favorite early NFL bets

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Speaker 2: here while I gotcha to help the people out. And

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Speaker 2: one of them, one of your three, I have already

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Speaker 2: bet along with you, So that's already happened before we

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Speaker 2: came here today. We haven't talked about this. I saw

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Speaker 2: what you put down there. I can't wait to talk

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Speaker 2: about it, but.

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Speaker 1: It ain't the first one.

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Speaker 2: So I want to debate you on the first one

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Speaker 2: of Tennessee to win the AFC South at plus three forty.

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Speaker 1: I know Mike Rabel is a great football coach. I

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Speaker 1: know Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 2: Is a force of nature and he is not built

438
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 2: like any other running back. However, come on, man, the

439
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans, do you think that roster really has enough

440
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 2: year in terms of offensive line, in terms of what

441
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 2: they're gonna do defensively, an offensive weapons here.

442
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 1: To compete with what is really an emerging Jacksonville team.

443
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 3: Absolutely this Tennison.

444
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 1: Tell me why so this.

445
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 4: Tennessee Titan team last year they have the just worst.

446
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,360
Speaker 4: Look Like, first of all, let's not forget last year.

447
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 4: Everyone's looking at them as like this is the reason

448
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 4: why we're fading them now. They went seven to ten.

449
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 4: This game started seven and three. Then you know, they

450
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 4: had that game against Cincinnati where they.

451
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 3: Kind of blew it at the end. It could have

452
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: gone either way.

453
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 4: Then they get blown out by Philly and then the

454
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 4: quarterback issues start happening and they end up losing the

455
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 4: last seven an in a row to finish seven and ten.

456
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 4: But injury luck is something you gotta expect to revert

457
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 4: to the meme, And you mentioned Vrabel is one of

458
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 4: the best coaches in the league. One of the best

459
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: coaches wins when he is an underdog, like straight up

460
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: like he'll straight up outright win when he's an underdog,

461
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 4: better than pretty much any other coach in the league.

462
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 4: The defense I think is is gonna be actually very good.

463
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 4: Jeffrey Simmons, Autree tart Key, Landry al Shire, Like, this

464
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 4: is a good defense. Uh, they just got really, really

465
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 4: really banged up. Last year they had the third most

466
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 4: adjusted games well, it's the courting of football outside. Yeah,

467
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 4: courting to football outsiders. And when I look at the Jaguars,

468
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 4: like they're sexy at the skilled positions, but I don't

469
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 4: think they did enough on defense. They're they're you know,

470
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 4: kind of banking on some you know, second or third

471
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 4: year leaps from from guys.

472
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 3: But that defense was not very good last year.

473
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,119
Speaker 4: And the Jaguars were very lucky last year, like outside

474
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 4: of Calvin Ridley, who I don't even know if you

475
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 4: count because you know, suspended anyway, but like none of

476
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: their key players missed more than a game or two,

477
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:10,400
Speaker 4: you know, No.

478
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 2: You're right, health for them was an anomaly on the

479
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: good side. Maybe health for Tennessee was anomally on the

480
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: bad side too. But I think at the end of

481
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 2: the day, it's the health of Ryan Tannehill that concerns

482
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 2: me the most because once he gets hurt and I

483
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: say once, because I feel like him playing seventeen games

484
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: is far fast. Whatever happens downgrade, why is there to

485
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 2: Will Levis or Malik Willis really concerns me. And I

486
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: think that's where I that's where I struggle with them

487
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 2: winning this division. But I get what you're saying, and

488
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 2: how important do you think that Hopkins addition is to

489
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 2: this wide receiver corps that looks since AJ Brown left

490
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 2: has been abysmal. Let's just call it what it is,

491
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: man like, it has not been good. And I know

492
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 2: they've had some injuries. They tried to throw some money

493
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 2: at Julio Jones that didn't work. They tried to throw

494
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: some you know, picks out there that did not work.

495
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 2: Traylon Burks, really, you know, last year was a lackluster season,

496
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 2: but there were a lot of contextual reasons. Why how

497
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: important is this Hopkins addition in this pick?

498
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: For you?

499
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: It's massive because and don't get me wrong, Hopkins doesn't

500
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 4: have to be like peak DeAndre Hopkins to make an impact.

501
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 4: And one of the you know what was one of

502
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 4: the worst wide receiving corps in the league. But now

503
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 4: you have DeAndre Hopkins, who is you know, I would

504
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 4: say at least an average wide receiver one, if not

505
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: an above average still at this point in his career,

506
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 4: Traylon Burks, we know sex you know from fantasy. We

507
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 4: know now it used to be year three now the

508
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 4: biggest jumps wide receivers tend to take, especially highly drafted

509
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 4: wide receivers is from year one to year two. So

510
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,199
Speaker 4: Traylon Burks, you know, probably is going to project to

511
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 4: be a plus wide receiver.

512
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: Two. Chicko Konquo some of the best.

513
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 4: Most explosive tight end pass catching play last season, and

514
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 4: you expect him to take another step forward. So the

515
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 4: pass catching corps with Hopkins could actually now go from below.

516
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 3: Average to above average.

517
00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 4: And remember, Ryan Tannehill played twelve games last year year

518
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 4: seven point eight yards in attempt, So Ryan Tanneher wasn't

519
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 4: like terrible by any stretch last year.

520
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 3: Malik Willis was. But Levis should at least, at.

521
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 4: Least at the bare minimum, be a competent NFL backup,

522
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 4: like upgrade on maliek Wood, who just couldn't throw for

523
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: yards like you had Malik Willis, and then you benched

524
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 4: him to put like to play.

525
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 1: Josh behind the street. I was not available.

526
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 2: They called me first and then eventually, But that's.

527
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 4: What I'm saying, Like, think about how think about how

528
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 4: much went wrong for this Titan team, and they they've

529
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 4: literally the entire tenure under Mike Rabel, save for that

530
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: oh and seven stretch, they've been excellent.

531
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 3: They've always out had expectations.

532
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 4: I'm not looking at this, this seven game stretch when

533
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 4: everyone got hurt, when they was playing.

534
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 3: Dudes that couldn't throw for yards and dudes off the couch.

535
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 4: Uh, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna sit here and

536
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 4: like overrate that compared to what they've been doing all

537
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 4: the you know, all the rest of the year. And

538
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,919
Speaker 4: and this division is weak. And again, I think the

539
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 4: Jaguars are great at the skill positions. I don't really

540
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 4: think the line is too great. I don't really think

541
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 4: the defense is too great. And this Jaguar team, you know,

542
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 4: if the Titans aren't starting Josh jabb this jag team,

543
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 4: we might we might be talking about what an eighty

544
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 4: nine Jags team.

545
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 3: I'll say this.

546
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: I'll say this. Uh, there's a lot of good points

547
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 1: in there.

548
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,159
Speaker 2: I just think, you know, last year, this was a

549
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: trend with the Titans the last couple of years where

550
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: Vrabel was able.

551
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: To out coach the personnel that he had.

552
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 2: I'm worried that we just, you know, we got to

553
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: that point where the window is just closed there potentially,

554
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 2: And you're right, the Jaguars, I think they made some

555
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 2: you know, some upgrades in the offensive line, it's still

556
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 2: work in progress.

557
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 1: I agree.

558
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 2: Defensively they can get to the quarterback, which is important.

559
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 2: But this is gonna be fun. Now, let's let's stop fighting,

560
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: because although it's so much fun, I want to talk

561
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: about the one that we agree on so much. And

562
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: this is great because the second one for you in

563
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: terms of preseason picks that you're on is.

564
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 4: What the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South. It's

565
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 4: plus two forty. But I think this is the best

566
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 4: team in a division. Honestly a reed. Ye see look

567
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,199
Speaker 4: at that. And I keep telling everybody that they're like,

568
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 4: how do you pick in the Falcons?

569
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 2: How do you picking the Falcons? So it's very easy.

570
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 2: I don't think much of the other teams. I think

571
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 2: the defense is a little better than you realize. I

572
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: think the corners are a little better than you realized potentially,

573
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 2: and they'd always play up to that last year. And

574
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 2: you've added the generational talent of v Jon Robinson to

575
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: an offense with a coach who understands how to utilize

576
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 2: a prime running back, you've got an elite level running back.

577
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 2: I think Drake Lennon is an elite level wide receiver

578
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts was hurt all last year and Marcus Mariota.

579
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 2: You know, last year in Fantasy Raymond I kept screaming

580
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 2: on the Fantasy Pro Show over and over. I was like, guys,

581
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 2: you gotta temper these expectations you have with Mariota. I'm

582
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: telling you right now, you can't get the season you

583
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: want out of Pits in London at their ADPs right now.

584
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: You just can't do it.

585
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 2: Now this year, they've fallen, and I'm not saying Desmond

586
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: Ritter is the savior and at the end of the

587
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: day ends up being Taylor Heineke.

588
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: I don't care.

589
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: Anyone's better than Mariota at this point for me as

590
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 2: far as I'm concerned. So I look at that offensive line,

591
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: and they are the football last year with Tyler Algeer,

592
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 2: I can't even fathom what they could do with Bijeon,

593
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 2: who is so versatile on so good at running routes,

594
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 2: and so good at every aspect of the game at

595
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 2: his position.

596
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: I just think he's gonna go.

597
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: Through And I think people are gonna be shocked when

598
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 2: the Falcons have ten wins.

599
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be shocked.

600
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 3: Think about this here's a crazy stat.

601
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 4: So the Bucks last year, you know, yes, the O

602
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: line had issues, but Tom Brady played all seventeen games.

603
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: All seven hundred times, right, Droe boll.

604
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 4: Seven hundred times. Godwin came back but didn't really miss

605
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 4: much time at all. You had the you had the

606
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: this you know, Andy Dalton playing you know, above his

607
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 4: head for the Saints. You had uh Camara barely missing games.

608
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 4: And you had uh the Carolina Panthers randomly getting like

609
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 4: monster Deontay Foreman production and like Sam Garnold resurgenceies.

610
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 3: The and we Hada Falcons were the best offense in

611
00:26:58,920 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 3: that division. Last year.

612
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 4: They were thirteenth to dv away with mariot to starting

613
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 4: fifteen games with them like with you know that passing attack,

614
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 4: they were still thirteenth. Above average offense. They're like you said,

615
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 4: their quarterbacks aren't gonna be any worse. Their own line

616
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: is still great. They added one of the most explosive

617
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 4: players of this generation to the backfield. Everyone's a chest piece.

618
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 4: Now Pitts can play tight end or wide out. London

619
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 4: can could be a tight end. He's so big. Bjohn's

620
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 4: gonna line up in the slot.

621
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 2: Uh you know, Prijon lining up in the loot and

622
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 2: some like Nickel Cordner trying to stop him, you like no,

623
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 2: or even worse, even worse, you get caught off guard

624
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 2: and they and they you know, call different play the

625
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage and audible out something and then you

626
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: know Bijon like some linebackers trying to guard him.

627
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 1: Uhh, Like that ain't happening, man. Uh So I love this.

628
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: You got koalas on defense baits and you got the guy,

629
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 4: you got the a new coordinator to Ryan Nielsen from

630
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 4: the who is you know, working magic with the Saints

631
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 4: o the years. So like, I think the defense is

632
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 4: gonna be completely different. I think that's probably the key

633
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 4: because the offense people.

634
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 3: Kind of know what it is.

635
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 4: They probably don't realize how good it was last year.

636
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 4: But like the defense I think has a chance to

637
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 4: be like average instead of terrible, which it was these

638
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 4: last you know, few years.

639
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: I agree.

640
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: And if they could just be average with that offense,

641
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:16,959
Speaker 2: I think that's good enough in that division.

642
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: I love this one. So let's get to the third one,

643
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 1: which I think is fascinating because everyone's got different takes on.

644
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 2: This new sets circumstances You've got Jordan Love for the

645
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 2: most interceptions in the NFL plus thirteen hundred. This is

646
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: the guy taking over for what like two generations of

647
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Now now it's gone to Jordan Love,

648
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: and you are trolling him hard out of the gate.

649
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 4: Why because, first of all, interceptions are a very random

650
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 4: stat like more than people think. Like for interceptions to

651
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:56,239
Speaker 4: stay wise, career interception rate takes about fifteen hundred pass attempts, right,

652
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 4: So that's like three seasons worths of interceptions just to

653
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 4: get it to fifty percent regression.

654
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: So but here's the thing about Jordan Love.

655
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 4: He's obviously one of the more inexperienced quarterbacks in the league.

656
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 4: And so like the interception you know, you expect the

657
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 4: interception rate to be like averager, you know, poor, and

658
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: they're not going to venture him, like they're gonna let

659
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 4: him like take his lumps, like like they have no

660
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 4: venture they have Clifford and Ettlings. So really that's all

661
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 4: you're looking for because a lot of times, like you know,

662
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: last year, you could have bet on a guy like

663
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 4: you could have been down on like Carson Wentz or

664
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 4: Matt Ryan or somebody.

665
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 3: But those guys. Yeah, they sucked when they were playing,

666
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 3: but they didn't you know, they end up getting benched.

667
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 4: So what you really need with this kind of market

668
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 4: is and I know, Dak like just somehow in like

669
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 4: twelve games.

670
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: Which was never oh and he has the guy that

671
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: managed the game, didn't make the turnovers, and all of

672
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: a sudden lastyear it goes in this historic interception rate

673
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 2: and you're like, what is happening here?

674
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: But I get what you're saying.

675
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: Basically, the special sauce is somebody who is going to

676
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: take his lumps, who is going to probably have to

677
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 2: throw the football because they're going to be behind, and

678
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: isn't going anywhere, and he kind of ticks all those boxes.

679
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: Man, that's pretty good logic. I like, care you're out

680
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: with that.

681
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he should be the market leader.

682
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 4: So as long as he's not like he's in I

683
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: think fifth, he's usually he's about fifth, fourth or fifth

684
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 4: on most sites, Jak is still the leader.

685
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 3: Which that's just bad projecting because.

686
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: I agree one hundred percent that's lazy projecting, Yes, because you.

687
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: Can't like last year's interception rate.

688
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 4: Literally, you'd be better off just using the league average

689
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 4: for everybody than like, you know.

690
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: Over like his career one.

691
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: No, that's what I use.

692
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, but he was his career.

693
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 2: One against the bad year. And then you want to

694
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: take it up a little bit. Okay, the average a little.

695
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 3: Right, right, you could wait it reap for recency.

696
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 4: But the thing about Love is when you're projecting a

697
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 4: guy that just doesn't have many attempts, you're gonna go

698
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: league averager a little bit, you know, below league average

699
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 4: because until he gets that experience to where you could Okay,

700
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 4: now now he's starting to get some some attempts up.

701
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think I think Love is a great

702
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 4: to and he should be. I mean, he doesn't seem

703
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 4: like a guy that should be uh, you know, brittle

704
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 4: or anything like that. Like he's not like scrambling all

705
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 4: the time, so he should should be pretty durable. So like, yeah,

706
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 4: I think he could start seventeen games. And if he

707
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 4: starts seventeen games.

708
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: He's a Bryce young size. No, yeah, he should, He's.

709
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: Got he's gonna be up there.

710
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 4: Lets unless you know, let's say maybe like a Stroud

711
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 4: or somebody just comes out here and just you know,

712
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 4: is just terrible and like starts a lot of games.

713
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't think that's gonna be the case.

714
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna be a case of stroud.

715
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: I think he's a lot better than people.

716
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: No Texans this year. People don't realize that the Texans aren't.

717
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 4: They don't have a tank roster anymore, like they traded

718
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 4: the picks to Arizona, so like they're they're actually yeah, yeah, yeaheah.

719
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 2: A great great Chris Raybond and I could talk football

720
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: all day, but uh, he's got other things to do,

721
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 2: and I'm sure you all do too, I think. Anyway,

722
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: but anyway, follow him on the twinter machine at Chris

723
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: Raybahnd of course, and check out all this amazing work

724
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: at the Action Network. Subscribe here to Fantasy Pros YouTube channel,

725
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: click that belt to that goes Dan. Drop your comment

726
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: below when you do, and you might win a one

727
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 2: year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros.

728
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: You get the top rated player.

729
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: Props, the custom analysis for your own betting performance, and

730
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 2: a whole lot more because VP Premium has the tools

731
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: to help you cash more bets playing and simple. So

732
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 2: and if you don't want to wait for the giveaway,

733
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: just go to Bettingpros dot Com slash upgrade today and

734
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 2: start betting smarter and not harder. Download that BP app

735
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: too so you can stay on top of all these

736
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: preseason lines. It was an amazing conversation here, not just

737
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 2: in the futures, but also too about how to approach

738
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: preseason because that is a tricky thing. So thanks again

739
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: Raybond for bringing the knowledge as you always do. My friend,

740
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 2: that'll do it for us, But the story of the

741
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: game goes on for Chris Raybond, I'm Joey P.

742
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids,