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Speaker 1: What two three breaks and in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: Hello's football down in the one yard line? How about that?

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 2: Network NFL podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs. In joining me to break down our

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen NFL team power rankings are Sean Corner and

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybon. Sean is the Action Network Director Predictive Analytics

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Speaker 2: and one of the top end season Fantasy pros rankers

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Speaker 2: for the past half decade, and Chris is a senior

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Speaker 2: editor and analystic the Action Network and a co host

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Speaker 2: of All Take That Bets on ESPN Plus. You can

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Speaker 2: follow them in the Action Network app at the underscore.

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Speaker 2: Osmaker and Chris Raymond used the app to get real

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Speaker 2: time odds and track your bets. Gentlemen, jump ball if

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Speaker 2: you want go get it. How's it going? It's going well, man.

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Speaker 1: I think uh, this week we probably have a little

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Speaker 1: more exciting intro to talk about in our chairs and

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Speaker 1: the level of squeakiness. Got a chance to go out

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Speaker 1: to LA this weekend and met up with mister Corner

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Speaker 1: over here who apparently knows all of the popping spots

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Speaker 1: on Sunday afternoons, which I don't know if I was

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Speaker 1: quite ready for.

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Speaker 2: What what qualifies as a popping spot on Sunday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: I mean, so we were at this really cool it

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Speaker 1: was like, what was that a whiskey bar?

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Speaker 2: Sewan, no rum bar?

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Speaker 1: Oh no, no, before but that was the first oh

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Speaker 1: yeah no.

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Speaker 3: The first place is yeah, just some you know, fancy

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Speaker 3: cocktail place.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So, I mean we started there. You know, we

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Speaker 1: had these really good smoked old fashions. But you know,

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Speaker 1: we decided to, you know, make a little move and

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Speaker 1: Sean is like, yeah, I know this, I know this

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Speaker 1: rum bar, and you know, we go. It's like in

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Speaker 1: the back of this like warehouse, no, like a garage.

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Speaker 1: It's like almost feels like a secret door, and like

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Speaker 1: we go in and it's just like way too it

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Speaker 1: for a Sunday afternoon. I mean, all I know is

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Speaker 1: I was holding a coconut at one point, like a

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Speaker 1: real coconut.

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Speaker 3: It's a secret spot. It's right by a Staple center,

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Speaker 3: so usually it's a good post Lakers, Clippers, Kings game

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Speaker 3: type of place, but yeah, Raybaum is not prepared but

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Speaker 3: loved every minute of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Man, our guy from the Action Network, Justin Fan,

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Speaker 1: also came out, so shouts to Justin follow him for

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Speaker 1: you like making money on NBA. I guess that's why

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Speaker 1: he didn't make any bets on on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I have to say, I'm pretty disappointed that you guys

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Speaker 2: think whatever is happening in California is better than whatever

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Speaker 2: is happening in Iowa. I mean, I don't know, I

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Speaker 2: haven't what's happening in Iowa. I have to say whatever's

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Speaker 2: happened in because I don't know what happens here. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean to the state of corn I will find

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Speaker 2: something for you guys to do.

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Speaker 1: I'm not even I'm not even making this up. We

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Speaker 1: did discuss this, Sean and I did discuss coming coming

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Speaker 1: to see you at this said of cocktail bar on Sundays.

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Speaker 1: So it might it's happened. It's happened.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we do need to get the Triumvirate together at

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Speaker 2: some way. That would be good. Okay, we had a big,

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Speaker 2: big NFL call yesterday. Let me rephrase that. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: massive in terms of the number of people on the call.

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Speaker 2: It was massive because we were on the call and

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Speaker 2: we are Titans. We were running through the fantasy football

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Speaker 2: tools that we're going to have available in July for

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Speaker 2: Action Network subscribers. We're going to have more to say

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Speaker 2: about our fantasy football package in future episodes. It's called

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Speaker 2: the teas. It's a long term tease. It's a multi

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Speaker 2: episode teas. Very exciting. For this episode, we're going to

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Speaker 2: run through our power rankings. Sean, Chris and I have

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Speaker 2: a new piece on the Action Network in which we

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Speaker 2: rank all thirty two NFL teams. As the season gets closer,

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Speaker 2: we of course will release a more detailed breakdown of

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Speaker 2: our rankings with against the spread utility been eye out

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Speaker 2: for those. Another another long term tease. Look at that.

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Speaker 1: Wait wait wait you just said we are we are Titans.

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Speaker 1: Did that make you Marcus Mariota?

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Speaker 2: No, not the actual And we are large in our brains.

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Speaker 1: You're saying the Titans aren't. They're not large in their brains.

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Speaker 1: They're not They're not sharp or correct.

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Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. Based on our rankings, these Titans

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Speaker 2: are not good.

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Speaker 1: Before Titans fans, I still remember this Titans fan who

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Speaker 1: just was so upset. Well, we were like going back

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Speaker 1: and forth over the Texans and the and the coast,

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Speaker 1: just like why are you leaving us out? And here

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Speaker 1: we go again, here we go again.

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Speaker 2: Yes, those those Titans fans, they are very passionate. I

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Speaker 2: mean it's it's good. You gotta you gotta support your team.

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Speaker 2: So I don't mind. Okay, let's talk about our power rankings,

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Speaker 2: and Sean, I kind of want to kick it to

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Speaker 2: you because you are the guy last year and throughout

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Speaker 2: the off season who has really been handling a lot

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Speaker 2: of what we do with our our power ratings. Can

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Speaker 2: you explain just kind of basic level like what they are,

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Speaker 2: how they should be used.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I would describe them as you know, they're

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Speaker 3: just the continuous rating system I have. So I'm, you know, first,

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Speaker 3: right off the bat this year, I'm rolling them over

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Speaker 3: from last year. So then I'm updating them based on

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Speaker 3: any personal changes, people coming back from injury. A great

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Speaker 3: example be you know, the forty nine ers last year

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Speaker 3: when Jimmy g got hurt. I think it was like

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Speaker 3: week two, you know, I lowered them about five to

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Speaker 3: six points in my power ratings and they pretty much

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Speaker 3: stayed there all year. And now that he's back, they

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Speaker 3: get those five to six points back. So you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm putting together updated base on all the rosters. I

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Speaker 3: did a piece on the draft and how that changes

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Speaker 3: things for what this purpose is, it doesn't change much.

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Speaker 3: Those are more long term pieces obviously, but yeah, going

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Speaker 3: into this year, my ratings are specifically meant to be,

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Speaker 3: you know, projecting what the week's week one spreads will be.

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Speaker 3: So I'm essentially trying to predict where Vegas will have

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Speaker 3: the lines, and then you know, after week one, I

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Speaker 3: update everything and I predict what the week two lines

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Speaker 3: are going to be. So they're very specific to you know,

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Speaker 3: projecting what the points spread will be. So I have

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Speaker 3: specific values for every team. You could check out my

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Speaker 3: piece on that, and I up to those throughout the

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Speaker 3: season based on any injuries or you know, recent play.

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Speaker 3: Just pretty much everything's.

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Speaker 1: Hey Sean, quick question, where so you said you had

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Speaker 1: Jimmy g about five and a half to six points.

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Speaker 1: Just curious as to where that ranks among quarterbacks, Like

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Speaker 1: is that top ten? Is that middle of the pack

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Speaker 1: or what for you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's pushing top ten, I think with him. It's

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Speaker 3: also about the drop off for the quarterback you know,

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Speaker 3: they had CJ. Bethard and Nick Mullens, so that's a

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Speaker 3: pretty big drop off, whereas you know, like Carson Wentz

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Speaker 3: and Nick Foles it was practically zero. But this year

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Speaker 3: it'll be you know, five to seven points with Nate Sebfeld.

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Speaker 3: So I'll mentioned that earlier with Eagles, but you know

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Speaker 3: who the backup is plays a large role on that.

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Speaker 3: So so yeah, I don't think Jimmy g is necessarily

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Speaker 3: a top ten QB, but with the up between the backup,

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Speaker 3: he's certainly up there.

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Speaker 1: How dare you, Ravon?

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Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about your methodology in which

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Speaker 2: you were creating the power rankings. What are some of

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Speaker 2: the things that you looked at to try to come

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Speaker 2: up with some numbers here?

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Speaker 1: Sure, so I think they're pretty similar to Shawn's and

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Speaker 1: that you know, they're not necessarily trying to predict lines

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Speaker 1: as much as they're what I think the lines should be.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not sure if that's exactly what you meant, Sean,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, it's just what a team, what a team's

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Speaker 1: point differential would be against an average team on a

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Speaker 1: neutral field. That is what my rankings are. And then

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Speaker 1: I you know, I can obviously adjust it for individual

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Speaker 1: matchups like you know, home field and things like that,

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Speaker 1: And so what's weighed most heavily is going to be

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Speaker 1: the passing game, you know, passing stop in the past,

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Speaker 1: that tends to be the biggest factor in point differential.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, to a wesser extent, factoring in

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Speaker 1: the Russian game, special teams, and then a lot of

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Speaker 1: these right ratings are going to be a lot closer

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Speaker 1: than maybe maybe people would think, especially you know, when

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Speaker 1: you're within the margins in the middle, but even even

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Speaker 1: sometimes at the top and bottom. And so I also

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Speaker 1: have incorporate kind of an intangible aspect to it, where

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Speaker 1: I'm adjusting for for essentially how well I think the

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Speaker 1: organization is run and how well I think they're coach.

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Speaker 1: So essentially teams that I think are more likely than

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Speaker 1: not to kind of outplay their talent level on the field,

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Speaker 1: or teams that I think are less likely. So a team,

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Speaker 1: an example of a team that I think will play

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Speaker 1: better than even the talent they have on the field

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Speaker 1: is a team like the Indianapolis Coats. You know, they've

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Speaker 1: shown the ability to kind of acquire the players that

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Speaker 1: that really fit their scheme. They've been really good at

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Speaker 1: developing young players with with the GM Chris Ballard and

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Speaker 1: and coach Frank Right and in defensive coordinator Matt ebra Flues,

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Speaker 1: they've also come up with really good game plans. And

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Speaker 1: so I think that when you look at that team,

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Speaker 1: maybe they're you know, in terms of raw talent, they're

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Speaker 1: like seventh or eighth, but actually have them third and

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Speaker 1: in my power rankings because I think they're just one

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Speaker 1: of those teams that could exceed that. And on the

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Speaker 1: other end, you have a team like maybe the Jets,

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Speaker 1: who you know, I think Sam Donald probably makes the

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Speaker 1: second year leap. They're probably a little better than they

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Speaker 1: were last year. But you know, there's also some things

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Speaker 1: to really be worried about that I think could pull

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Speaker 1: him down. You know, things like you have a first

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Speaker 1: year coach and Adam Gase, who's an offensive minded guy,

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Speaker 1: with Greg Williams, who's been very kind of up and down.

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Speaker 1: We know that the roster is not necessarily molded in

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Speaker 1: the image of what Gase wanted to do because they

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Speaker 1: fired GM Mike mccagnan. So you have all these kind

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Speaker 1: of factors that are kind of warning signs to where

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Speaker 1: even if you know Donald is, you know, makes the

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Speaker 1: leap that we expect. I think the team could kind

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Speaker 1: of struggle in other areas that may pull them down.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's kind of the thing that I implement

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Speaker 1: to kind of get a little more separation between the teams.

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Speaker 2: Right on, I would just like to point out that

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Speaker 2: you had the Colts Power ranked third in the Texans tenth.

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Speaker 2: Just wanted to and I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, there's no no buias here, man, I like the Testans,

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Speaker 1: but I see there's some teams better than that. But

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Speaker 1: I mean I think tenth is I would say, probably

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Speaker 1: higher than many I would think have them of just

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Speaker 1: in the market in general, probably have them ranked.

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Speaker 2: On the topic of power, I quickly want to talk

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Speaker 2: about erectile dysfunction. Study show that seventy percent of guys

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Speaker 2: who experienced ED don't get treated for it. But thankfully,

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Speaker 2: because of Roman, there's an easy way to chat with

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Speaker 2: the doctor online, Sean, Chris, isn't that great news, just

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Speaker 2: you know, bringing you guys into the conversation a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Let me tell you about the good folks at Roman.

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Speaker 2: Roman is a one stop shop where licensed US physicians

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Speaker 2: Get Roman dot com slash nfl pod. Okay, guys, let's

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Speaker 2: talk about our consensus Top five not a surprise number one.

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Speaker 2: We have the Chiefs unanimous. I mean, Sean talked about

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs and why you are bold enough to have

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Speaker 2: them ranked number one.

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Speaker 3: Well, in honor of our sponsor, I will say this

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs. They shot up to number one during the

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Speaker 3: season last year when Patrick Maholmes exploded in the first

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Speaker 3: last season. But you know, going into this year with

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Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill, you know, a questionable to even be on

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Speaker 3: the team. I actually ran a Twitter poll to kind

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Speaker 3: of get a sense of, you know, what percent chance

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Speaker 3: people think that he's going to be playing, and people

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Speaker 3: pull that about fifty six percent said he won't play

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Speaker 3: a single game this year. So I'm assuming he won't

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Speaker 3: be playing. So I actually docked them a full point.

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Speaker 3: I had them a full point over my second ranked team.

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Speaker 3: I think he is that big of a difference on

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Speaker 3: offense and even as a returner, so they're they're a

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Speaker 3: little bit closer to the pack. Having said that, they

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Speaker 3: would not be an underdog against any team on neutral

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Speaker 3: field right now, but with these top five teams, Raybon

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Speaker 3: kind of mentioned it, you know, they would only be

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Speaker 3: like a point favorite over my number five teams, So

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Speaker 3: it's a lot closer than people think. Their defense, you know,

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Speaker 3: they lost justin Houston D four, but they did get

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Speaker 3: Frank Clark and Tyron Matthews, so I think they could

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Speaker 3: improve on defense, and you know that's there they're going

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Speaker 3: to go as far as their defense lots of this

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Speaker 3: year rabon.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about the Chiefs here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you know, their schedule, it's by no

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Speaker 1: means means soft, But I think they can still go nuts.

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Speaker 1: You know they you guys. I had to, man, I

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Speaker 1: had to now No, seriously though, I think so the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are a good example of kind of one of

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Speaker 1: those organizations that I look at with those intangible factors

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Speaker 1: because I think they're not perfect. You know, I did

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Speaker 1: write an article recently about how I thought, you know,

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Speaker 1: there was a mistake to we've patched mahomes on the

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Speaker 1: bench per year. However, they've showed the ability to consistently

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Speaker 1: exceed expectations in terms of flat out wins. With Andy Reid,

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Speaker 1: I think every single year he's beat their wind total.

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Speaker 1: They've shown the ability to find high upside talent and

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Speaker 1: high risk, high reward talent. So even though they're kind

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Speaker 1: of pinning their hopes on a lot of these guys

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Speaker 1: like Kareem Hunt in the past or a Tyreek Hill,

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Speaker 1: who you know can be off the team and or

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Speaker 1: off the field and split second. They've shown the willingness

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Speaker 1: at the same time to continue to acquire this type

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Speaker 1: of talent, which is evidence by you know, getting a

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Speaker 1: guy like Frank Clark. So I think that when you

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Speaker 1: have the quarterback and Mahomes, you have the coach and read,

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Speaker 1: and you have this kind of organizational philosophy. While it's

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Speaker 1: not perfect, I think it leaves you in the driver's

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Speaker 1: seat with what they still do have and what they

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Speaker 1: are putting on the field. So that's kind of why

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Speaker 1: I still have the Chiefs that number one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I also think I also think just real quick

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Speaker 3: that you know, if something does happen to Turk Kill,

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Speaker 3: I think they will bring someone in, whether it's a

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Speaker 3: trade or say got off the street. So I don't

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Speaker 3: necessarily think they're just gonna leave that whole wide open.

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Speaker 3: I think they will try to fill that. And you

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Speaker 3: know they're they're a win now mode, so I think

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Speaker 3: they'll make a move to replace Hill if.

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Speaker 1: Needed, and they were aggressive. I mean in a draft

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Speaker 1: even you know, second round pick on m Coole Harmon

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Speaker 1: is not you know, that's a that's a pretty high

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Speaker 1: high draft capital pick as well, and you know, just

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Speaker 1: moves like that you know it. They'll get criticized, but

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Speaker 1: I I'm a fan. I'm a fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the second team, the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Chris and I have them ranked number two. Sean you

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Speaker 2: have them ranked number three. Can you talk about them

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Speaker 2: a little bit?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, they're they're one of the most you know,

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Speaker 3: well balanced team's great offense. They get Cooper Cup back

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Speaker 3: this year. I think that did hurt Guff a little

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Speaker 3: bit when he went down. And you know, Gurley's health

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Speaker 3: will be key. You know, I mentioned I'm a William

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Speaker 3: and fancy, but I think he should be fine. I

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Speaker 3: expect they'll just scale his workload back, so I think

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Speaker 3: he'll be just as effective in real life value. In

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Speaker 3: that case, I think it comes down to their defense,

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Speaker 3: and they definitely need Marcus Peters and Key the lead

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Speaker 3: to step up this year. I think that's going to

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Speaker 3: be critical to get them over the hump and be

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Speaker 3: a super Bowl team. But you know, they let Non

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Speaker 3: mcnsugo LaMarcus Joiner, but they did bring in Eric weddle

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Speaker 3: on Clay Matthews who can still contribute in their later years.

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Speaker 3: So I do like their defense. Just like I said,

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Speaker 3: they're a complete team. One of the best coach teams

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Speaker 3: of Sean McVay. So they're just going to be a

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Speaker 3: staple in my top three until proven otherwise.

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Speaker 2: All Right, I think let's kick it to the number

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Speaker 2: three team here, the Colts Raymond. You are the highest

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Speaker 2: on them out of the three of us. What are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts on them specifically?

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Speaker 1: So I think again, and I kind of allude to

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Speaker 1: this at the top, but you know, quarterback Andrew Luck

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Speaker 1: just amazing, you know, ability to last season with a

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Speaker 1: supporting cast that was I would say pretty poor outside

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Speaker 1: of you know, you probably got a better season than

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Speaker 1: expected from from Ibron, but you also had a lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries. The receiving core outside of c Y Hilton

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Speaker 1: was was really nowhere to be found, and Naim Heines

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Speaker 1: kind of faded a little bit down a stretch, and

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Speaker 1: so what he did in the red zone on third down,

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Speaker 1: I thought was was amazing. And just again the defense

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Speaker 1: that they're putting on the field now, Darius Leonard, like

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Speaker 1: I think the Malie Cooker is going to have now

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Speaker 1: like a year back after coming off that injury. Just

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys I expect to make another leap,

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Speaker 1: and I think they have a lot of talent all

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Speaker 1: the way around. They've drafted really well. Chris Bawd has

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Speaker 1: talked about how they narrow their board down probably more

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Speaker 1: than any other team in the league to find not

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Speaker 1: only talent, but specific scheme fits. And I just think

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Speaker 1: that what they've been doing, you know, the kind of

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Speaker 1: flyers they've taken in free agency on guys like Ebron

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Speaker 1: last year, you know, funs just this year, can really

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Speaker 1: have a a profound impact. I think Marlon Mack is

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Speaker 1: a little better than maybe people might know. And I

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Speaker 1: think he saw him down a stretching in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: last year. You know, he was really excellent. And as

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Speaker 1: long as they kind of keep his work quote and checking,

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Speaker 1: he stays healthy, I think he'll be a big factor.

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Speaker 1: So I think all the offensive line is really good

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Speaker 1: that way. I think that's going to continue to get

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Speaker 1: better as well. So I think on all phases, I

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Speaker 1: just think this team is really strong, and I think

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Speaker 1: this is one of those teams the game plans Frank

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Speaker 1: Bright on offense, Matt Eberfus on defense. You know, they

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Speaker 1: out coached my Texans in that in that playoff game

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Speaker 1: just thoroughly. So on paper, I put it. I think

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Speaker 1: they probably are right up there with the Patriots and

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Speaker 1: the Rams, and so that's why I kind of have

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Speaker 1: them number three, actually ahead of the Patriots, because I

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Speaker 1: just think that they're not necessarily going to get circles

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Speaker 1: run around them the way they have in years past

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Speaker 1: organizationally or on the sidelines by Bill Belichick coaching staff.

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Speaker 2: One thing to mention as we were recording this, a

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Speaker 2: report has come out that the Colts are interested, you know,

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Speaker 2: they have a quote unquote level of interest in free

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Speaker 2: agent defense to tackle Gerald McCoy, So he would just

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Speaker 2: be another weapon there for them to bring in. And

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Speaker 2: they have the salary cap space, like, they have a

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Speaker 2: lot of space. And I think what's been pretty impressive

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Speaker 2: with this team is how quickly, even from just two

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Speaker 2: years ago, they have revamped the roster while still maintaining

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Speaker 2: a really high amount of salary cap. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think the future is very bright for them. It really

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Speaker 2: the job that they've done rebuilding the offensive line too.

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Speaker 2: I mean they did it so quickly, and part of

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Speaker 2: it obviously because the guys they brought in, players that

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Speaker 2: they brought in, but also the coaching staff and the

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Speaker 2: way that they've schemed has been pretty intelligent as well. Chris,

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Speaker 2: you talked about the Patriots there and how you have

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Speaker 2: them the Colts ranked ahead of the Patriots. Sean, let's

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Speaker 2: talk about the Patriots. They're are number four team, They're

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Speaker 2: unanimous in the top five for all of us. What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts with them?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what's left to say about them? You know,

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Speaker 3: we keep waiting for Tom Brady to decline. I think

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Speaker 3: it's inevitable at forty two. How much will be the question?

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Speaker 3: They lost Trent Brown, Trey Flowers, Gronkowski. Typically, Belichick is

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Speaker 3: always able to overcome, you know, when they lose more

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Speaker 3: players in gain, but I think the Gronk loss will

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Speaker 3: ding him a little bit.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: I still have them, you know, as a top three,

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Speaker 3: top five team, but I think I'm gonna be willing

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Speaker 3: to invest against them a little bit against the spread

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Speaker 3: on the regular season, but come playoff time, I usually

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Speaker 3: back off. They're completely different teams. So I think they

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Speaker 3: are going to start taking a step back. You know,

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Speaker 3: just Gronkowski is such a huge part of that offense,

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Speaker 3: and I don't think they're gonna be able to fill

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Speaker 3: his role. So yeah, they're not going to be the

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Speaker 3: favorite against teams like the Rams, Chiefs or even Cults,

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Speaker 3: so they're not the top of the throne anymore my ratings.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about this next team, the Saints. This

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Speaker 2: is I think a really interesting team. They're top five

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Speaker 2: for us. In fact, they're actually tied with the Patriots. Sean,

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Speaker 2: you have them ranked second, Raymond have them ranked eight.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is the first which we have

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Speaker 2: a pretty big discrepancy between two rankers. Raymond, I would

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Speaker 2: like to hear your case first on why you are

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Speaker 2: so against this team.

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Speaker 1: So let me start by saying again, I'm not against it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're terrible. I just think that they're in.

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Speaker 1: First of all, I think the best teams this year

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Speaker 1: are going to be in the AFC. I think it's

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I think it's the Colds. I think it's

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. I think the Browns they're right there as well.

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Speaker 1: And then I think the NFC is just a little

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Speaker 1: closer in that top tier. And when I look at

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Speaker 1: the teams who I like in the NFC, you know

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Speaker 1: the Rams, I think again, Sean mentioned a great great

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00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 1: additions on defense, and look at just how quick you

434
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 1: know Sean McVay was able to take that two years,

435
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 1: he was able to take that team to super Bowl.

436
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 1: You haven at team like the Saints. I mean, how

437
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 1: many times have they gotten to the super Bowl? And

438
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 1: Sean Payton's been coaching them since two thousand and six,

439
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So I think that the

440
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 1: Rams are a better team organization. I think the Saints

441
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 1: are going to take a little step back, And I'm

442
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 1: a little concern about what I saw, to be honest

443
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 1: with Drew Brees down to stretch, and I think that's

444
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 1: where it really stems from. That kind of makes me

445
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: pull back because I still think the defense is going

446
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 1: to be one of the better defenses of this Saints era,

447
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 1: although I do kind of worry about them, you know,

448
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 1: relying so heavily on like overachieving guys like Eli Apple,

449
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 1: the Mario Davis and whatnot. But I think Breeze, you know,

450
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: down a stretch from we twelve on just six point

451
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt, eleven touchdowns, six interceptions, this includes

452
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: the playoffs, and just didn't look like the same guy.

453
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: And like, I wouldn't worry as much about that if

454
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: he wasn't, you know, forty if this wasn't his age

455
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: forty season. I mean, you know, I remember a couple

456
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 1: of years ago when it you know, just kind of

457
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 1: went downhill pretty quickly for Peyton Manning over the second

458
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: half of a season and it never really rebounded. And

459
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 1: you know, luckily Denver was able to kind of put

460
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 1: a squad around him and still get it done, so

461
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 1: that I could certainly see that happening with the SAINTSS,

462
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 1: which is why I have him in the top eight.

463
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: But I think there are teams with better rosters out there,

464
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: and I think there are teams that are slightly sharper organization.

465
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: We also think that they're a little a little bit

466
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 1: top heavy for me on offense, and with that whole

467
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 1: breeze question marks around breeze, if Kamara or tom As

468
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: something happens to them, it kind of changes a lot.

469
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: You know. We've seen you know, Jared Cooks thirty two.

470
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen them kind of with one a

471
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 1: free agent tight end with Kobe fleeener Chek Gain's thirty four,

472
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: trey Quan Smith regressed down the stretch, which I thought

473
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 1: was a little bit odd. So I just you know,

474
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 1: Max under the center. We've kind of talked about it.

475
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: Not not a huge deal, but not ideal when of

476
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 1: all positions on the O line. So just I think offensively,

477
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: I expect them to be kind of in that running

478
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: in that top tier. I just don't really see the

479
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: separation between them, the Rams and the Eagles, who I'm

480
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 1: really high on, and the Bears. I think those are

481
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 1: kind of the top tier to the NFC, and I

482
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: don't really see the same separation. Then, I guess more

483
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: Jett the consensus.

484
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, I want to get to you in

485
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: a second, but Chris, I want to ask you a

486
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 2: followup question on this. Let's assume that we live in

487
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: a version at the universe where the Saints did not

488
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 2: get screwed over in the playoffs with the no call,

489
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 2: and they play in the super Bowl. And I think

490
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: it's it's feasible to say that if they had been

491
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: in the super Bowl, they at least would have been

492
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 2: competitive with the Patriots, they maybe would have won that game.

493
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: Let's say that they win the Super Bowl. How does

494
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: that change the way that you view them now?

495
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: Probably not at all. I think that's actually the opposite,

496
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 1: And I wrote about this in our power rankings. You

497
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 1: know right up. I think that the fact that they

498
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: did come so close, and the fact that they did,

499
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: you know, many people felt that they should have been

500
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: in the SUPERWL in that they could have won, is

501
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: actually inflating their value in the eyes of a lot

502
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: of people. I just think that this is a team

503
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,959
Speaker 1: that's a good team that had a really strong wor

504
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: and they went ten to one. They had a plus

505
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: thirteen points some I think it was thirteen point nine

506
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: point differential over the first eleven weeks of the season

507
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: over the next from Week twelve through the playoffs, and

508
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 1: this is discounting that the meetingless Week seventeen game, which

509
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: I'm throwing out because Breeze didn't start. But besides that,

510
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: their point differential was plus three point eight. They beat

511
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: the Steelers by three. They beat the Panthers in another

512
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,479
Speaker 1: game by three. They lost to the Cowboys by three.

513
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: They beat the Eagles by six. Probably could have lost

514
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 1: that game if Ashon Jeffrey catches that ball and then

515
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 1: they lose to the Rams by three. Could have won

516
00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: that game by three. So I think that's the team

517
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 1: that they're going to be going forward. A team that

518
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 1: can either lose or win, can play one score games

519
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: with any team, but not a team that's necessarily blowing

520
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: people out the way they were over those first eleven weeks.

521
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 2: Okay, Sean, give it to us.

522
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,239
Speaker 3: So I mean, even though I think Raybund's crazier for

523
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: having them eight, I don't disagree with anything he said.

524
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 3: You know, I consider them one of the teams that's

525
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 3: in win now mode. They're all in. They're going for

526
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 3: the super Bowl this year. And you mentioned the call

527
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: last year, but even two years ago, you know, Marcus

528
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: Williams falling down for that fluke touchdown. You know, who

529
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: knows they could have made super Bowl that year in one.

530
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: So I think they're you know, unfairly you know, discredited

531
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: because of their recent playoff runs. But I consider them,

532
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 3: you know, they have a lower floor than people think.

533
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 3: So that's why I give Raybunds eight rankings some credence.

534
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: Because they are a bit top heavy. They they won't

535
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 3: be able to sustain as much injury that luck as

536
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 3: other teams, but that's why, you know, and Vegas treats

537
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 3: them as the top three teams, so there isn't much

538
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 3: value in betting on them necessarily. But that's why I

539
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 3: consider them still a pretty good play at nine to

540
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 3: one to win the Super Bowl. They're just a high

541
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: upside team. So if they manage to stay healthy, that's

542
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: when I think they will be a top two team.

543
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 3: And until then, you know, I'm going to have them

544
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 3: in the top two. I don't really see Breeze slowing

545
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 3: down yet, even at forty, so I'm considering him to be,

546
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: you know, same as last year. And then you know,

547
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 3: they still have Marshall a lot of more and Cam

548
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: during defense to the top defensive players in the league.

549
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 3: So if healthy, you know, their upside is a top team.

550
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: So until then, they're going to be in my top

551
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: two in power ratings.

552
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about some of the teams that,

553
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: relatively speaking, we are high on. Sean. I want to

554
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: kick it to you first, the Green A Packers. You

555
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 2: have them ranked number nine. Where are they in our

556
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: overall rankings? They are twelve. Raymond has the thirteenth. I

557
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 2: have them fourteenth. Can you talk about what it is

558
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 2: that you see when you're looking at this team that

559
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: you were totally way too high on.

560
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 1: Sure?

561
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm trying to figure out why and

562
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 3: too high, and I think it's just you know how

563
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 3: important quarterback is in my ratings. You know, there's no

564
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 3: more critical position in football or maybe any other sport

565
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 3: than QB when it comes to you know, win probability.

566
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: So when you look at last year Aaron Rodgers, he

567
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: now we know he suffered a sprain MCL and a

568
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,479
Speaker 3: tibial plateau fracture. I remember last year on the Fancy

569
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 3: Flex you were kind of joking he might be playing

570
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 3: with the tourney ACL and we weren't too far off.

571
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 3: So you know, he played last year at way less

572
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: than one hundred percent, So I'm just anticipating him to

573
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: return closer one hundred percent and his MVP levels this year.

574
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 3: So that's that's giving them a little bit more of

575
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 3: a boost than you guys probably in my power ratings.

576
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 3: The fresh coaching may help. I don't necessarily think Matt

577
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 3: Floor's going to have to or reinvent football to you know,

578
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 3: pull out the potential Aaron Rodgers. He needs to just

579
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: get out of his way. So I just I'm more

580
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 3: betting on Aaron Rodgers to hit one hundred percent this year.

581
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 3: So until I'll proven otherwise, I'm all in on them.

582
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: And you know I wrote up about that. In my

583
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 3: weeks two through seventeen piece. One of the lines that

584
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 3: I already took was Packers minus two at the New

585
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: York Giants in week thirteen. I kind of go into

586
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: the game theory a little bit there, where Daniel Jones

587
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: is probably starting at that point in the season, and

588
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: you know, the Giants power rating will drop a couple points.

589
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 3: So I'm looking to invest on some weekly lines for

590
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 3: the Packers early the season. In banking on Rogers returning

591
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 3: to his MVP status.

592
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm like, it's funny because it's almost like, I

593
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 1: like what the Packers have done and fire McCarthy. I

594
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 1: think that he was he was bad for what they

595
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: were doing. But I guess my question is, like, how

596
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: much of Aaron rodgers struggles over the past four years

597
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: do we attribute to straight up McCarthy, because I mean

598
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: lesbi Rue. In twenty fifteen, his yards per attempt was

599
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: six point seven. In twenty sixteen it was seven point three,

600
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: and twenty seventeen at seven point zero, and twenty eighteen

601
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 1: it's seven point four. The league averages seven point four,

602
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: So he's been average. He's been Derek Carr in terms

603
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 1: of got no. I mean, I know the touchdown, of course,

604
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: no he's but you know, you got my point, like

605
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: he we know how grave he is, but it's not

606
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: it hasn't translated onto the field because of now one,

607
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: I think that the receiving cor has slowly deteriorated. You know,

608
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: the veterans have gotten older, the young guys haven't quite

609
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: stepped up. So it's like, how much are we attributing

610
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: that to McCarthy and his schemes and the fact that

611
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: he didn't really he's he kind of made them. His

612
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: receivers run on like a lot of isolation rounds. He

613
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: wasn't really scheming them open. How much do we look

614
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: at Lafloor and say, well, he didn't really change I

615
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: mean the Titans were already going nine and seven. He

616
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: didn't really do much much, you know, to help, I

617
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: would say, And like, you know, how far has this

618
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 1: defense come along in one year to really change this

619
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: team from what it's been over the last four years,

620
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: which has been a pretty average team in West and

621
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: if they suffer injuries, a below average team.

622
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: Okay, raybon, I hear you. I agree with you. Specifically,

623
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: thinking about Aaron Rodgers, I think part of the problem

624
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 2: for the last four years has been Aaron Rodgers, not

625
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 2: just Mike McCarthy. I don't know if Rogers has the

626
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: ability really to meld with a coach. Even if he does,

627
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if that coach is going to be Lafleur,

628
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: because as you mentioned, with Lafour, we really haven't seen

629
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: him do much that would make you think this guy

630
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 2: can demand the respect of a Hall of Fame quarterback.

631
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 2: So I'm a little hesitant. And also I know that

632
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: they have revamped the defensive side of the ball, but

633
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes you add defensive pieces and it just

634
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: doesn't come together. And you know, I don't know if

635
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: we saw enough out of the defensive coaching staff there

636
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 2: last year to assume that it can just add more

637
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: pieces to this defense and it will be significantly better

638
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 2: this year. So I'm a little bit a little bit

639
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: unsure about what we're gonna see. O the Packers, Raybon,

640
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: I want to kick it to you. You have the

641
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 2: Cardinals ranked eighteenth, which I have to say is aggressive,

642
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: But I don't think it's like like I wanted to

643
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: be there with you, you know what I mean? Like,

644
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: so I would just say, like blanket statement, I imagine

645
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 2: that after we ran some numbers, the Cardinals were like

646
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: the dead last team that all of us had, And

647
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: then it's like you're adjusting them up based on all

648
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 2: of these things that are kind of suppositional, like, well,

649
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: they have a new coach, they have a new quarterback,

650
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: they have all of these things. But if you were

651
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 2: just to look at the team last year, that would

652
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: be the worst team this year if nothing had changed.

653
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: So Raybon, I'm curious about how you adjust for these

654
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 2: these changes that are kind of they're like, they're theoretical.

655
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: We haven't seen the impact of what these changes will be,

656
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: So how do you have them ranked eighteenth?

657
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: Okay, so first of all, again I kind of mentioned

658
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: at the top that the most important thing when you're

659
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: kind of trying to project point differential is passing, passing

660
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: and stop in the pass. So passing on offense is

661
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: going to obviously be you know, number one here. Last season,

662
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 1: this is a team that averaged five point eight yards

663
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: per pass attempt with Josh Rosen four point six net

664
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: yards per pass attempt. The league averages seven point four,

665
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: so they averaged almost a half yard less than any

666
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: team in the league. So just like natural regression, that's

667
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: going to kind of, you know, regress back to the mean,

668
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: like you would never project a team for that low

669
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: and that's just going to kind of bring them closer

670
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: to the pack already. That's why people probably heard me

671
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: mentioned in the past that, you know, three win teams

672
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 1: over the last fifteen years, in the next year they

673
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: went an average of six and a half games. You know,

674
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: that's just it's hard to be that bad in the

675
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: passing game two years in a row. But now now

676
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: you look at what's going on and they have Kyler

677
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: Murray here. And if you look at and I touched

678
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: on this in my Mahomes article without really going into it,

679
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 1: but if you look at the rookie quarterbacks who have

680
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: had success in year one and have been just as

681
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: good in year one as year two, it's Russell Wilson,

682
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 1: It's Cam Newton, it's Dak Prescott, it's Andrew lock. It's

683
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 1: guys like that, Guys with mobility. I think that mobility

684
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: raises your rookie year floor a lot higher. I mean,

685
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: even a guy like last year Josh Allen, who was

686
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 1: considered just not very good by a lot of people,

687
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: just the fact that he had some mobility kind of

688
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: the Bills were just you know, below average with him,

689
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,239
Speaker 1: they weren't terrible, the worst team in the league. They

690
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: weren't Josh Rosen like with the Cardinals because and I

691
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: think it simply came down to the fact that he

692
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 1: had mobility, you know, the same thing with the Bills

693
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: were I think for much of the year a better

694
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: team than than the New York Jets with it for

695
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: a similar reason in that development. So I think the

696
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: development of Kyler Murray, mixed with the talent he has,

697
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: I think their floor is a lot closer to that

698
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: six and a half win team that the point differential

699
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: of that kind of a team of a mediocre team.

700
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: Now I think the Patrick Peterson news, I would have

701
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: probab we had them in the top half of the

702
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: league if it wasn't for this Patrick Peterson news, which

703
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: I think really does hurt them, because I thought that

704
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: with him and what they added in the draft and

705
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: kind of the pieces, I thought that defense had the

706
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: potential to be pretty good too. But now I question

707
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: that a little bit with Peterson. But I still think

708
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: this team has you know, David Johnson, superstar caliber running back.

709
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: I think the offensive lines weaknesses will be minimized with

710
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: the way Kingsburgy's gonna run spread offense. And I think

711
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: we've seen these turnarounds happen fairly quickly in the past,

712
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: where you have when the coach is better and the

713
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: quarterback is better. We've seen it with the Rams, We've

714
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: seen it with the Bears. That's what turns around teams

715
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: the quickest. I just have them as a mediocre team

716
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 1: rather than a bottom tier team.

717
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 2: One team that I am high on relatives to you

718
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 2: guys is the Seattle Seahawks. And I'll say, like, I'm

719
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: higher on them than even I want to be. You know,

720
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: like I don't want to have them ranked where I

721
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 2: have them ranked. I have them number thirteen. You guys

722
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: both have them ranked number sixteen. I mean, I just

723
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 2: I don't think of them as a team that I

724
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 2: have a lot of like quote unquote respect for, in

725
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 2: part just because I think they run a pretty antiquated

726
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: offense that prevents their best player, Russell Wilson, from being

727
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 2: able to perform at a level that is sort of

728
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: commensurate with his skills. That said, even though he's handcuffed,

729
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: I think he actually is still pretty pretty impressive. I

730
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 2: think he's one of the best all around dual threat

731
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the league. He's not the runner he used

732
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: to be, but he's still very functional with it. Seven

733
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: years in the league, never missed a game. The Seahawks

734
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: have made the playoffs six times. With Wilson, the Seahawks

735
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 2: are almost always competitive, regardless of whoever it is that

736
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: they are playing. I think the loss of Doug Baldwin

737
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 2: is not insignificant, but I think Tyler Lockett should build

738
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 2: upon what he did last year. And then the team

739
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 2: also has Daven Moore. They added DK Metcalf and Gary Jennings,

740
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: like I think it is almost as good of a

741
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: wide receiver group as any other that Russell Wilson has had.

742
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: And then defensively, they are going to be without Frank Clark.

743
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 2: They are going to be without Earl Thomas, but they

744
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 2: were already without Earl Thomas for most of last season anyway,

745
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 2: and they were also without Cliff Averell, Michael Bennett, Richard Truman,

746
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: Cam Chancellor. And even though I don't think their their

747
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 2: defense was nearly as good as it used to be

748
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: in the Legion of Boon days, like it wasn't bad.

749
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 2: It was it was I think, at worst, like a

750
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: league average unit. And so I think they've they've proven

751
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: throughout the years that their defense is resilient even when

752
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: they are missing some of their big name guys. So

753
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 2: I think they are closer to the like the top

754
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: third of the league than the kind of like middle

755
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 2: like middle tier of the league, if that makes sense

756
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 2: to you, guys.

757
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: I agree. I think Russell Wilson is a guy that

758
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: really props them up. But I do think we do

759
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: disagree with what about on how they kind of get

760
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: to this point of being like what they are. I

761
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: think that Russell Wilson is a gift and a curse

762
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: to them. And what I mean by that is he

763
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,359
Speaker 1: was obviously a gift when he was on that rookie

764
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: contract and they went, what what are they going? His

765
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 1: first year like something like a ten and six, eleven

766
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 1: and five, I believe, and they were just every year

767
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: they were really good right now, and Robert Mays of

768
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: The Ringer wrote a really good article. I encourage everybody

769
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: to check it out. It's called how should NFL Teams

770
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: Build around the thirty million dollar Quarterback? And essentially what

771
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: he Robert goes in details is that what Seattle has done,

772
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 1: and this is by choice, which is why I think

773
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: their organization should get a little more credit, and they shouldn't.

774
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 1: Everyone kind of calls them antiquator, but I think it's

775
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: they have a more it's more deliberate than we think.

776
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 1: So what Seattle has essentially done is they said, Okay,

777
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 1: we realized quarterback is the most important position. We realize

778
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: that we're going to have to pay this guy, Russell Wilson.

779
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 1: So what we're gonna do is instead of trying to

780
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: build this like studs and scrubs type of situation, they

781
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: have literally stripped down the entire roster around him, and

782
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: they just continue to rely on cheap players and they're

783
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: going to continue to re up when a guy gets

784
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: too expensive. They're essentially going by the Patriots model of

785
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: anyone that's not Tom Brady. You know, it's expendable. And

786
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 1: then on all offense, it's the same thing. They know

787
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: they have to run and so that's why they have

788
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 1: a guy like Brian Shot and Hummy, I mean, I mean,

789
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: this offense was really good. They crazily outperform expectations. Russell

790
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: Wilson had the best passing year of his life. So

791
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: I don't think it's fair to Shotenheimer to say, oh,

792
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: they're antiquated, they run too much. I mean, Russell Wilson

793
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: said a career high in touchdowns, he ran less. So

794
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: that was a lot of criticism because they know they

795
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: can't get him hurt. He's a thirty million dollar guy.

796
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: So Seawannenheimer comes in and says, hey, we're going to

797
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: run this guy less. The old line, which everyone thought

798
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: was bottom five in the league, held up. I mean,

799
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: I think he did a really good job, and I

800
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: think the organization does a really good job. It's just

801
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,359
Speaker 1: this is the cars they were dealt, and they're kind

802
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: of going at it in a little somewhat of a

803
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: contrarian manner, and I think it is kind of a fragile,

804
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: high upside, low floor situation, but it is. It's a

805
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: lot of teams around the league are in that same

806
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 1: situation and haven't necessarily dealt with it as sharply. So

807
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: I think that on the field in any given week,

808
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are liable to lose, and that's why I

809
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,280
Speaker 1: have him sixteenth. But I think the organization itself actually

810
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: does deserve credit for what they'd.

811
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 2: Go, yeah, I guess I would push back a little

812
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 2: bit and saying like, I don't think last year was

813
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: his best year, Like I I mean in terms of

814
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: what was facilitated by Brian Schottenheimer. I'm giving Brian Schottenheimer

815
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 2: no credit. And I hope God has Marcy on his soul.

816
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: So you like Darryl Bevelmore in Detroit.

817
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 2: No, I like. I like neither of them. I like

818
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: Russell Willie. I have a lot of respect for him

819
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 2: and what he was able to do. And you're talking

820
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 2: about personal high thirty five touchdowns last year. Touchdowns. It's

821
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: not that those are like insignificant, but like Russell Wilson

822
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: also had the fewest passing yards he's had in the

823
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 2: past half decade, Like that also means something.

824
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's the whole point. He threw a out

825
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 1: of touchdowns, but his yard perttempt was eight point one.

826
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: That was right the third time in his career he's

827
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,720
Speaker 1: been over eight, so that his career average is a

828
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 1: seven point nine. So like he performed more efficiently. That's

829
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: the whole point. They threw less because the Schottenheimer is

830
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: like they knew they couldn't throw a lot. They knew

831
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 1: they couldn't hold up if they did, and they knew

832
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 1: they're defense couldn't hold up if they did. And that's

833
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: that was the problem the year before. So they bring

834
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: in the right guy for this job. I'm not saying

835
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: Schottenheimer is the right guy for the Kansas City chiefs job,

836
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: but I think you got a raw deal because he

837
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 1: was coaching dudes like Mark Sanchez and and and you know,

838
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 1: and it was under Jeff Fisher and like just in

839
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: the worst situations you could possibly have to.

840
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: Be all right, all right, Well, I'm going to just

841
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: say that much more of this has to do with

842
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson.

843
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: I am Wilson.

844
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: You know what else I am high on is Airbnb experiences.

845
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 2: You've heard me talk about them before. I had my

846
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: own Airbnb experience a couple of weekends ago. I will

847
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 2: talk about that in more detail on next week's show.

848
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: Yet another long term tease. If you don't know about

849
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: Airbnb experiences, let me tell you. Airbnb experiences provide access

850
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 2: to activities that can't easily be found elsewhere. Airbnb experiences

851
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 2: are designed for active participation, so you can do something new.

852
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 2: They are curated for quality, embedded for safety, These aren't

853
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 2: your typical tours and activities. These are experiences designed to

854
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,720
Speaker 2: get you living life. AIRBNBA experiences are hosted by locals

855
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 2: who have deep expertise and they're filled. These are real

856
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,280
Speaker 2: experts with long time hands on experience, who are guiding

857
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 2: you through your own experience. With these experiences, you learn

858
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: things you can't find online or in a textbook, and

859
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 2: most importantly, you have fun. There are Airbnb experiences in

860
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: over a thousand cities around the world, so there are

861
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: lots of options for you to choose from. You don't

862
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: need to be traveling to try Airbnb experiences. You can

863
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 2: do them right in your hometown, which is exactly what

864
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 2: I did for my experience. For your own adventures, check

865
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 2: out airbnb dot com slash Experiences to explore one of

866
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 2: a kind activities created for the curious. Okay, let's talk

867
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: about the teams that we are low on. Sean, Let's

868
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: kick it to you.

869
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,760
Speaker 3: I would say, if I get to pick one team,

870
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 3: it would be the Ravens. You know, just some of

871
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 3: the key players they lost in defense, like Trell Suggs

872
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 3: and Darius Smiths, TJ. Moseley and Eric Weddle. They were

873
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 3: able to salvage a bit with the Earl Thomas signing,

874
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: but any step back they take defensively means it's more

875
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: pressure on Lamar Jackson. Last year, they were able to

876
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 3: kind of hide his inefficiencies last year with their great

877
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:05,919
Speaker 3: defense and he was playing with a lead.

878
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 1: And they're able to run the ball a lot.

879
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 3: So I think if their defense takes a step back

880
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: this year, which I think they should, it's just gonna

881
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 3: compound things and it's a bad mix. So I have

882
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 3: them being more of a sub five hundred team heading

883
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 3: into this year. So they're a team I'm low on

884
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 3: taking their under on their season win total and going

885
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 3: to be attacking them early on this season against them

886
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 3: on the spread.

887
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, as Raymond mentioned earlier, there's not much

888
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: of a difference between a lot of the teams in

889
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: kind of this middle tier. You have them ranked nineteenth,

890
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: Raybond has them fifteenth. I have them sixteenth, And I

891
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 2: really don't see much of a difference between the Ravens

892
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 2: and a team like the Panthers or a team like

893
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 2: the Titans or the Cowboys. I mean, there are some differences,

894
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: but like there is just this kind of middle tier

895
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 2: where a lot of the teams are all kind of

896
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 2: packed together. Raymond, do you have any thoughts on the

897
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 2: Ravens or any other team that you are high on?

898
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, quickly, with the Ravens, I do agree. Think they're

899
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: they're kind of in that middle pack with with that,

900
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: with those teams that kind of have these mobile quarterbacks

901
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 1: that can give you more upside and if everyone stays healthy,

902
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: I think things go better. I think that they did

903
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 1: smartly address their speed issue on offense. So I think

904
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson was held back, not just because I think

905
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: he's completely terrible, but also because I mean he was

906
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: thrown to like old Michael Krabtree, I mean John Brown

907
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: for all, like he's getting credit for it. He's like

908
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 1: always about to take Greg Robert Froster's job in Buffalo.

909
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: I mean John Brown was a very good last year

910
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 1: down the stretch, Like he wasn't very efficient. He had

911
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: a couple of big games as like guys who are

912
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 1: fast due, but he was a pretty inefficient guy in

913
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: general too. I think it wasn't all on Jackson. And

914
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: I think that this year, you know, having Justice, Justice Sale,

915
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 1: having Hollywood Brown, Miles Boyke, and I think they they're

916
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 1: going to be a better offense. I think the defense

917
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: is going to drop off, and that is a little

918
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: worried someome. But at the same time, you know, they

919
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: they went out and signed mark ingram they still have

920
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. They I think the offense will be taking

921
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 1: enough enough of a step forward with the defensive talent

922
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: that they still have. I think a Wasson is pretty

923
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: good as think. I think, you know, the Earl Thomas

924
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 1: signing could potentially improve the secondary. They still have a

925
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: bunch of good corners. Marlon Humphrey ranted car has been

926
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: playing well. We'll see about Jimmy Smith. But I think

927
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: it's the middle of the pack team. A team that

928
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: I am lower on than most is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

929
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 1: I have them twenty third. Consensus is nineteenth. I think

930
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 1: that the year they went to almost went to the

931
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I think a lot of things broke right,

932
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: and I just you know, the pieces on defense keep shrinking.

933
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 1: I think a little bit. You have Telvin Smith, you're

934
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: kind of saying he's going to sit out. You have

935
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: Jamon Ramsey. We don't know what's going on with him now.

936
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 1: I think that Tom Kaughlin and they're kind of turning

937
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 1: people off to the organization. It's kind of fragile on offense.

938
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: You know, Winn four that that's a big part of

939
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: what they do. He hasn't been fully healthy. I think

940
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: Nick Foles can be really good in situations where you know,

941
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 1: he has a coordinator that can kind of call the

942
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: games in such a way and empower him to have

943
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: success via play calling. And I don't think that this

944
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 1: is necessarily the offense for him. I think that this

945
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 1: could be a lot closer to the team that we

946
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: saw last year, even with the even with a top

947
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: tier defense, pretty close to the team we saw last year.

948
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: I mean a lot of their players on offense, you know,

949
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 1: key players like you know, Markie Squeeze, a guy that

950
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 1: hasn't been able to stay healthy either. You know, we

951
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 1: didn't see as much out of DJ Shark as we

952
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 1: probably would have wanted to. They went out and signed

953
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: Chris Conley. What's I mean when you're going out and

954
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: signing Chris Conley to ad like, you know, it's just

955
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: a below average situation on offense for the Bowl average

956
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 1: talent on offense, and then the difference makers on defense

957
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: are shrinking, and I just questioned again what the effect

958
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: that Tom Coughlin's having from above on that organization, because

959
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 1: down to stretch, we saw the defense kind of check

960
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 1: out of games. I mean that that the Derrick Henry

961
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 1: run comes to mind, where it's just they all made

962
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 1: business decisions. But I mean you look at what Dallas

963
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 1: put up, like forty on them or something like that. Like,

964
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 1: there is a lot of situations where I think that

965
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 1: defense just mentally wasn't engaged, and I worry, you know,

966
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: as they keep losing pieces or as this offense continues

967
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: to be below average that that's and continue to have.

968
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: So I don't think they're very good team at all,

969
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 1: and I think that AFC championship year excuse me, might

970
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: end up going down unfortunately as an outlier.

971
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,280
Speaker 2: Sean, any thoughts about that team.

972
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: I'm pretty in line with Rayvon he you know, he

973
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 3: mentioned how they had some you know, locker room turmoil

974
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 3: last year, and I do think they have a pretty

975
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 3: tough schedule this year, so if that happens again, you know,

976
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 3: I'll be low on them. I took the under eight

977
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 3: wins this year based on their schedule alone. I think

978
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 3: Nick Foles will help, but with him you know, so

979
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 3: unsure what you're gonna get from him. So they're gonna

980
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 3: go as far as I think Nick Foles will will

981
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 3: take him and.

982
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 1: Chris Conley nick Foles and Chris Conley, but.

983
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 2: Love it. I mean, I think he's just going to

984
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 2: step into the Dante Moncrief role and really provide something

985
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 2: for that team. The team that I am down on

986
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 2: relative to you guys, the Bears. I have them ranked

987
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 2: twelfth Sean you're six on them, Ray BONI are nine.

988
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: I think last year they were basically a nine to

989
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 2: seventeen that went twelve and four. I attribute almost all

990
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: of their offensive success to Matt Maggie instead of Mitch Trubisky.

991
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 2: Pretty much the exact opposite situation of what I see

992
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks. I don't think that Trubisky really developed

993
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 2: all that much, and I think there were a lot

994
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 2: of things that benefited the team that they're not going

995
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 2: to have this year. So last year they had a

996
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 2: last play schedule. This year they have a first play schedule.

997
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers was injured for a lot of the season.

998
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins was in his first season with the Vikings.

999
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia was in his first season with the Lions.

1000
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 2: So you know, I think, presumably Rodgers is healthy, Cousins

1001
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 2: should be more comfortable with his team. Patricia's Lions might

1002
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 2: be better than they were last year, although we definitely

1003
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: can't take that as something that will be true. But

1004
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 2: I'm just not very impressed by this team. And the

1005
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 2: bigger thing is I kind of see them as a

1006
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: version of last year's Jacksonville Jaguars, where they were a

1007
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 2: very defense driven team that looks primed to regress. So

1008
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 2: that is where I am with the Bears. Chris, tell

1009
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: me why I am wrong.

1010
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 1: It's funny that you said that they're at twelve and

1011
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 1: four team that should have been nine and seven, because

1012
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: I actually do agree with that. I think their schedule

1013
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 1: played a big part in their success last year. However,

1014
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: this year, I actually think they could be a nine

1015
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: and seventeen that really should be twelve and four because

1016
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: when Maggie, you know, Matt Naggant came in last year

1017
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: did have a profound effect on the team. I totally

1018
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 1: agree with that, but I also think that now having

1019
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: this offseason and looking at some of the things they

1020
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: were able to do, like this defense is top I

1021
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 1: think top three top four in the league. And now

1022
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 1: they've shipped out Jordan Howard, who really didn't fit the offense.

1023
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 1: They've brought in not only Montgomery, but they brought in

1024
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: Mike Davis. So guys that can a little better, more versutile,

1025
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 1: can catch the ball. They have a bunch of these

1026
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 1: gadget guys. Now they have Tarik Cohen, they brought in

1027
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 1: Cordello Patterson. So I think this offense is like when

1028
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 1: you're looking for like a sneaky offense that could, like

1029
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, could be top five.

1030
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying Trubisky. I agree that Trubisky wasn't

1031
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 1: really he was probably still the weaker wink, but I

1032
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 1: don't think he was like a fatally flawed weaklink in anyway.

1033
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: And I kind of throw out his year one and

1034
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 1: say this is his real year two, because I mean,

1035
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 1: let's be real, under John Fox, did me want to

1036
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 1: throw the ball? So I expect to jump from tru Risky.

1037
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,720
Speaker 1: And I think with the moves that they've made on offense,

1038
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 1: I think this could be a really dangerous offense where

1039
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: everyone tru Risky's throwing to, you know, it is capable

1040
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,240
Speaker 1: of making a big play, and it's kind of reminds

1041
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 1: me a little bit of the twenty seventeen Chiefs, where

1042
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 1: except with a good defense, but on offense, where it's

1043
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 1: like Alex Smith didn't have to really change who he

1044
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,439
Speaker 1: was and this was and it was like a really

1045
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 1: good offense just because of all the pieces around him

1046
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: and because of Naggy, And that reminds me of what

1047
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 1: the Bears have going on, except they also have this

1048
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 1: really high upside defense. So I like the Bears. And

1049
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I was tempted. You guys aren't gonna like this,

1050
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 1: but I was tempted to put him ahead of the Saints.

1051
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: But I couldn't take the Saints out of the top eight,

1052
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 1: so they're staying for now. But no, I'm high on

1053
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: the Bears and I'm high on Trubisky as a late

1054
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 1: round quarterback picking fantasy, and I'm high in the offense.

1055
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 1: I think they could I think they could surprise me.

1056
00:48:58,040 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if they were the best team.

1057
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 2: Then, Okay, I just I don't even kind of I

1058
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 2: don't even know where to start. But so one, ravon,

1059
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 2: pick your metric, the one you want to use to

1060
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 2: judge this offense, and if you want, we can place

1061
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 2: a friendly little bet on whether this will actually be

1062
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 2: a top five offense. Number two. I do agree that

1063
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: Trubisky from a fantasy perspective is a good late round

1064
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 2: quarterback because he does have that rushing upside. This is

1065
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 2: an offense that could be better. Like it, they could

1066
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 2: develop a lot of consistency, So I don't want to

1067
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: take that away from Trubisky. So I agree he is

1068
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: someone to target as a late round quarterback, but I

1069
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 2: don't I wouldn't want to count on him as someone

1070
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 2: who actually is a good NFL quarterback. Like Blake Portles

1071
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 2: was a good late round quarterback at one point, but

1072
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:51,720
Speaker 2: like he wasn't an NFL caliber type of quarterback. Number three.

1073
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 2: I think one thing that this offense doesn't have, which

1074
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 2: the Chiefs did have, was Andy Reid as the guy

1075
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 2: who really is kind of the motivating driver of what

1076
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: the offense is doing. And I know that Naggie was

1077
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 2: doing a lot of the play calling, but there's a

1078
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 2: there's a big difference between a guy doing the play

1079
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:15,240
Speaker 2: calling and him having like a master and Andy Reid,

1080
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 2: who is there as a I wouldn't say like a consultant,

1081
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 2: But is there as like the guide for what that

1082
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 2: offense is like philosophically doing and then for with this

1083
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 2: defense And I forgot to mention this earlier. The big

1084
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 2: thing that they're missing is their defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio.

1085
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 2: And like, I don't think we can assume that anyone

1086
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: else can come in and be able to do with

1087
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 2: those same guys what Fangio was able to do last year,

1088
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 2: especially when his name is escaping me. But uh, their

1089
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,720
Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator. What what is this that the Colts

1090
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: former coach Pagano Right, he's the new coordinator, right, Like

1091
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't have a lot of faith in

1092
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 2: his ability to coordinate that defense. So I think the defense,

1093
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 2: even though it has a lot of high upside, guys

1094
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 2: could still regress just because they're not going to be

1095
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 2: put in the right places in the right situation under Pagano.

1096
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 1: Say, I mean that is fair. I would just say

1097
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 1: with Naggy though, like this literally, if you can't get

1098
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 1: in to read like this is the next best thing.

1099
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 1: I mean. They scored twenty six point three points per

1100
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 1: game last year, that was ninth in the league. They

1101
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: like twelve and four. That was Naggy's first year as

1102
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 1: a head coach. I mean, now he's got a chance

1103
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 1: to mold the offense in his liking Trubrisky's got a

1104
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: real year to develop in the offseason in naggy scheme.

1105
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, I expect most defenses to step back, take

1106
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 1: a step back generally because it's it's harder to sustain

1107
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 1: defensive performance from one year to the next. But I mean,

1108
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: I don't see any like huge red flags considering the

1109
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,919
Speaker 1: talent they have on defense. So I mean, I guess

1110
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna degree to disagree, but I would

1111
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:48,439
Speaker 1: go with like something like yards per play or points

1112
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 1: per game if you want to if you want that

1113
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: side action.

1114
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 2: All right, let's look quickly at a few of the

1115
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 2: teams we have at the bottom of the rankings. Let's

1116
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 2: start with the two teams we have tied for the

1117
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: to bottom spot here, the Redskins and the Bengals. I mean,

1118
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: we're pretty unanimous and thinking that both of these teams

1119
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:10,359
Speaker 2: are bottom four sean, any thoughts on either of these

1120
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 2: two teams.

1121
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,359
Speaker 3: The Redskins I think have the most potential of this

1122
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 3: crap tier I had actually wrote written about taking some

1123
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 3: of their lines later in the season. If and when

1124
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 3: they decided to go from case Cam and Dwayne Haskins,

1125
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 3: it's going to be more of a lateral move, So

1126
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to really impact their power

1127
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 3: rating at all. I think Haskins is more nflready than

1128
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:35,439
Speaker 3: say Daniel Jones. So I locked in them minus three

1129
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 3: Week sixteen against the Giants. I'm pretty sure that's gonna

1130
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:41,800
Speaker 3: be Haskins versus Daniel Jones, and I have the Redskins

1131
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 3: being closer to a six point favorite in that game.

1132
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 3: But you know, they're pretty average with their roster, but

1133
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 3: they have some pieces where you know they have some upside.

1134
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 3: You know, they brought on Land Collins, drafted Montez Sweat,

1135
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,479
Speaker 3: so the you know, the entire defensive line is all

1136
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 3: first round picks in the last three drafts. So you know,

1137
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 3: I just like their potential in this range. They're not

1138
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 3: really a team that I think is going to be

1139
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 3: tanking to get a quarterback next year. So just out

1140
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 3: of this group, they're just the team I have the

1141
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 3: highest just based on sheer potential.

1142
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, right on any thoughts on these teams, I mean,

1143
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 2: the Redskins are a team that they're one of those

1144
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: teams that is an example of.

1145
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: A team that gets bumped down for the way they

1146
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 1: run their organization because I think they're kind of take

1147
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 1: a step forward and they take two back. Like I

1148
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:30,640
Speaker 1: think their defensive philosophy and the players they've acquired have

1149
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 1: been have been pretty good and kind of put them

1150
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: in a position to have a pretty decent defense. But

1151
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 1: then you start to look at how well those players

1152
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 1: have actually performed, and you're like, wait a minute, because,

1153
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: for example, their top rated cornerback in Pro Football Focus

1154
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,800
Speaker 1: was Josh Norman at fifty two. Their top rated safety

1155
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 1: on the roster Landon Collins, with the forty fifth best

1156
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: safety in the league last year. In their grading, they

1157
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: had no linebacker that qualified above seventy sevens. They had

1158
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 1: no interior defender above forty ninth. That was Deron Payne.

1159
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,839
Speaker 1: I do like, And then you know, on the edge

1160
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: was the only place where they had some some some

1161
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 1: solid grades Ryan Anderson sixteenth and Ryan Kerrigan's twenty seventh.

1162
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:10,879
Speaker 1: So it's like that defense, didn't you know, even though

1163
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 1: it's it's decent, it's not necessarily it's liable to kind

1164
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 1: of take a step back as much as it is

1165
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 1: to take a step forward, just depending on you know,

1166
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 1: who they play in what situations they're in. Josh Norman

1167
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: was never really lived up to his contract. And then

1168
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: you look on offense and I just think it's so

1169
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 1: fragile and like the downside is almost bigger than the

1170
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: upside because first of all, we don't, you know, we

1171
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what Haskins is going to do. We

1172
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 1: don't we don't know exactly why. I mean, he might

1173
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 1: know why he fell. I think there's concerns about, you know,

1174
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 1: how can he can he escape the pocket? You know,

1175
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 1: what's he you know, and all that. And then you

1176
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: look at, Okay, Chris Thompson probably their best offensive weapon.

1177
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,399
Speaker 1: If not him, you say, okay, it's Jordan Reed. Both

1178
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,759
Speaker 1: of those guys are glass. Paul Richardson's probably their best

1179
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 1: receiver right now, and he has had one healthy season.

1180
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 1: You have Josh Dotson who's never lived up to his potential.

1181
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 1: You have no real you still don't have a blocking

1182
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 1: tight end that you can actually play, so like like

1183
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 1: like Vernon Davis is thirty five, Jorda Reed really can't

1184
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 1: block Adrian Peterson's in his mid thirties, so and you

1185
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: still have him on a roster. Darius Geist should be talented,

1186
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 1: but missed the year with a torn acl They said

1187
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: he was behind schedule. Like that's just not a positive thing.

1188
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 1: And he's also one of those guys that you don't

1189
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 1: know about his pass catching ability. So it's just like

1190
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:23,759
Speaker 1: and then you have McLaren, who you drafted, You have

1191
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 1: Harmon at you drafted. You know, McLaren is kind of

1192
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 1: a prospect kind of guy. The best thing he has

1193
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 1: going for him is that he played with Haskins. And

1194
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 1: then you're entrusting your slot job to Trey Quinn, who

1195
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 1: another guy I think is pretty decent but suffered two

1196
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 1: major injuries in his first and only professional season. And

1197
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,359
Speaker 1: this is your offense, and your whole offensive line went

1198
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:44,720
Speaker 1: got hurt at some point last year. So it's like

1199
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 1: like it's just I think injury is a lot of luck.

1200
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:49,919
Speaker 1: But at some point, like you have to question why

1201
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: every player on the on the offensive roster lacks durability.

1202
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 1: I mean this kind of I'm kind of it's kind

1203
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: of beg. It's starting to beg a deep dive as

1204
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: to like are they is there? Because I mean I

1205
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 1: remember in the NBA. I forget which team it was,

1206
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 1: but there was some team that just like their trainers

1207
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 1: were really bad, and like they ended up firing all

1208
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 1: their trainers. I forget. It doesn't come to me at

1209
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 1: the moment, but like, I just wonder if there's anything

1210
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 1: deeper going on than just pure luck, because I mean,

1211
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 1: just year after year it's these durability concerned and insight

1212
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 1: it just seems like they're not really making any roster

1213
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:21,360
Speaker 1: moves with durability in mind. I mean even you know,

1214
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 1: even a guy like Haskins, you know if he's if

1215
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 1: a knock on him is that he's not very you know,

1216
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 1: mobile in the pocket. I mean, that's not good for

1217
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: like a six or five guy to just be a

1218
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: statue there either. So you know, it's I mean, it

1219
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 1: could go really it could get bad in Washington. And

1220
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 1: it's kind of weird to me that Jay Gruden is

1221
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 1: the offensive minded head coach and yet I think they've

1222
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 1: been a lot sharper organizationally in the moves they've made

1223
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 1: on defensively. So you know, it's a rough situation for me,

1224
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 1: and I give them zero benefit of the doubt. They

1225
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 1: just happen to be in a division with a team

1226
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 1: that is even gets a negative benefit in the New

1227
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 1: York Giants, I wrote a whole article about it. Check

1228
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 1: it out. It's on Action Network dot Com slash NFO.

1229
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: Right now, Yeah, let's talk about the Giants. We have

1230
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:07,239
Speaker 2: them second to last. I also wrote an article on

1231
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 2: them on Daniel Jones, looking at the history of first

1232
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 2: round quarterbacks who are drafted when there's an established quarterback

1233
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: on the roster, and how those guys tend not to

1234
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 2: play in year one, sometimes even in year two. So

1235
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 2: it's an interesting situation. We are really expecting them to

1236
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:26,880
Speaker 2: be one of the worst teams in the league. They

1237
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 2: traded away last year a lot of their key players,

1238
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 2: some of them during the season, and then the offseason

1239
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 2: they traded away Odell Beckham, Junior Sean. I want to

1240
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 2: kick it to you first. Raybon has already mentioned that

1241
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 2: this is a horrible team. What are your thoughts on

1242
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:41,440
Speaker 2: the Giants?

1243
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'll let Raybond rant on them a little bit,

1244
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 3: But in my article I was definitely targeting, you know,

1245
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 3: like when Daniel Jones will become quarterback and Raybond and

1246
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 3: I have a side bet now on that. Apparently the

1247
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:57,280
Speaker 3: over enders week ten and a half. But I really

1248
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 3: do think that he starts at some point this year,

1249
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 3: probably in the second half. And like I mentioned that

1250
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 3: their power rating would drop a couple points.

1251
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 2: Say what you.

1252
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 3: Want about Eli Manning, but throwing a rookie out there

1253
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 3: like him that's not quite Paulish yet will set them

1254
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 3: back a couple points in Vegas ratings. So I already

1255
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 3: have a few bets locked in with Jets minus two

1256
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 3: and a half against them in Week ten, Packers minus

1257
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 3: two and a half against them week thirteen, and Redskins

1258
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 3: minus three and week sixteen. So I just think it's

1259
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 3: key to lock in some of these numbers early in

1260
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 3: the season because I'm anticipating Jones starting in the second half.

1261
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, So part of my thinking is that they butchered

1262
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 2: the situation so poorly at the end of twenty seventeen

1263
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 2: when they wanted to bench Eli Manning that even if

1264
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 2: this team is performing really poorly, they will just let

1265
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 2: him play out the season and kind of have this

1266
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 2: sort of like this is Eli's retirement season and celebrate that.

1267
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 2: And Jones seems like the type of guy who actually

1268
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: is okay with sitting on the bench I can.

1269
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 3: See that, but I think they want to know what's

1270
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 3: what they have in Jones. I could even see, you know,

1271
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 3: I'm giving it like five to ten percent chance we

1272
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 3: get a Josh Rosen situation where they you know, they

1273
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 3: start Jones most of the season and they look at

1274
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 3: this twenty twenty class, pretty big QB class, and you know,

1275
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 3: if Jones doesn't look like he's gonna pan out, they

1276
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 3: could take quarterback next year. So I think they need

1277
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 3: to find out what they have with Jones. They're clearly

1278
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 3: not in win now mode, so it doesn't really make

1279
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 3: sense just having Manning out there, you know, when they

1280
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 3: could find out what they have in Jones early on.

1281
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ray buon give it to us.

1282
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 1: The whole thing about the Daniel Jones situation is that

1283
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 1: it's John Mara and Evan. I give Evan silver credit.

1284
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 1: He actually he read my Giants article when I was

1285
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:49,919
Speaker 1: actually on the plane to LA and he he sent

1286
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 1: me he did a podcast with Matt Kelly, the Podfather

1287
00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:55,919
Speaker 1: shouts to both of them, So go check that out

1288
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: on this exact topic, and essentially Evan referred to it

1289
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:02,920
Speaker 1: as make great Again. That's been what's been happening for

1290
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: the last since twenty seventeen. And I think the reason

1291
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 1: they got a quarterback in Daniel Jones, who studied under

1292
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 1: Manning as a kid, got coached by Manning's coach, looks

1293
01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 1: like Manning and talks like Manning is so John Marra,

1294
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 1: John Mara, not David Ghettoman, but John Mara, the guy

1295
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 1: who decided to put Ben mcadou via Jerry Reeas because

1296
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: he doesn't talk directly to his coaches, put him up

1297
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 1: to benching Eli in twenty seventeen, but was too scared

1298
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 1: to just approach Eli about just ending his start streak,

1299
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:37,560
Speaker 1: so decided to put them up to this ill advised

1300
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 1: plan to benh him at the half. So everything since

1301
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 1: that has been just how are we gonna get Eli

1302
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 1: out of there? It's like their old Yeller moment, except

1303
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 1: instead of killing the dog, they shot themselves. That's like

1304
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:49,920
Speaker 1: to me, that's what the Giants have been doing for

1305
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 1: these last two years. So like now that they got

1306
01:00:51,600 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, I'm kind of with show here. I think

1307
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna see him a little earlier because it's gonna

1308
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 1: be for the first time you're seeing Maarra not scared

1309
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 1: to just put plug because let's remember not only did

1310
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,080
Speaker 1: they bench Eli for one game for Geno Smith, but

1311
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 1: and they said, and Marra sold it as well, we

1312
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:08,800
Speaker 1: wanted to look for some other quarterbacks. And it was

1313
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: probably a bad plan that he had. They've never benched

1314
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: Eli again. They never looked at any quarterbacks after this,

1315
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 1: and so because they were scared, because Marrow was scared

1316
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:19,160
Speaker 1: of the perception. So I think finally he said, he said, Okay,

1317
01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 1: I'm literally going to like I'm sure they had, like

1318
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 1: you talk about not using analytics and drafting say Kwon

1319
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 1: Barkley and drafting Jones six, I think they have the

1320
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: best like facial recognition analytics and voice recognition analytics in

1321
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 1: the league to where they just did carbon cop clone

1322
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: me and Eli Manning find me, Eli Manning, And that's

1323
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 1: what Daniel Jones is. And so I think, like, I

1324
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 1: don't even think they're gonna like there's gonna be no statement.

1325
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 1: I think they're just gonna send Daniel Jones out in

1326
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 1: number ten like the first quarter of Week one and

1327
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: hope nobody notices, Like I think that's what the Giants

1328
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,280
Speaker 1: And he's gonna start all sixteen games and play every

1329
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 1: snap for the next fifteen years until they find the

1330
01:01:57,400 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: next Daniel Jones slash Eli Manning. And that's why they

1331
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: are thirty one in my power rankings because they're not

1332
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:07,040
Speaker 1: even trying to tack. They don't know they're trying to

1333
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 1: tank what they're tanking.

1334
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe at that point it will actually be Eli

1335
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 2: Manning's child who Jones who had to.

1336
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones' passing camp and was coached by David Cutcliffe.

1337
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 2: Okay, we mentioned the Josh Rosen situation. Who knows, maybe

1338
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 2: next year Josh Rosen will be traded to the Giants

1339
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 2: and we'll take a good look at him to see

1340
01:02:33,240 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 2: if he can be the replacement to Daniel Jones. But

1341
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 2: each of us, we have the Dolphins ranked thirty second.

1342
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 2: Pretty ironic that Rosen is going from the worst team

1343
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:44,000
Speaker 2: last year to the worst team this year?

1344
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 1: Is he good?

1345
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:46,360
Speaker 2: Like do we like?

1346
01:02:46,400 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 1: What do we think about Rosen? Seriously? I mean the

1347
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:51,720
Speaker 1: Carnals like they were like for even for a rookie quarterback,

1348
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 1: Like I get it, but like remember rookie quarterbacks, like

1349
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 1: the good ones are generally pretty okay in year one? Like,

1350
01:02:57,840 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: what do we think of Josh Rosen?

1351
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, that's I think the Dolphins are smart, might

1352
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 3: as well take the chances here they're taking anyway, put

1353
01:03:04,920 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 3: him out there. If he's terrible, then they just get

1354
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 3: first pick next year. I dock them a point if

1355
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 3: they if they start him week one instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick,

1356
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: I'm lowering them a point. But with him, there's the

1357
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 3: upsides there, So you might as well find out this year,

1358
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:21,320
Speaker 3: starting as long as possible, and then go from there.

1359
01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 3: You can either decide to keep tanking or put in

1360
01:03:24,120 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 3: Ryan Fitzpatrick to stop the planning a bit and sell

1361
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 3: some tickets. But I think it was a great move

1362
01:03:29,000 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 3: for both teams. They need to find out if he is,

1363
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 3: you know, a first round pick and can be their

1364
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 3: KEYB of the future.

1365
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 2: The thing that is I think really a problem with

1366
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 2: Rosen is that even though he came into the league

1367
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:44,040
Speaker 2: very young, twenty one years old, and even though he

1368
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,680
Speaker 2: was you know, like a heralded passing prospect when he

1369
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:51,320
Speaker 2: entered college and had three years of starting experience in college,

1370
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 2: all that is good. The problem is he's a absolute

1371
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 2: statue in the pocket. There we go, Yeah, like those

1372
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 2: guys like they are becoming rarer and rarer in a

1373
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 2: league where it's like mobility is so important, Like someone

1374
01:04:05,080 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 2: like Tom Brady can get away with not being mobile

1375
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 2: because like he actually has like some sneaky shiftiness in

1376
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 2: the pocket to be able to shift, and he gets

1377
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:17,040
Speaker 2: the ball out so quickly anyway, and like he knows

1378
01:04:17,080 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 2: his offensive scheme so well that he just has like

1379
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:23,440
Speaker 2: this fine tuned internal clock of when to get the

1380
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:27,040
Speaker 2: ball out when he's being pressured. I think Philip Rivers

1381
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 2: has a similar type of thing, like Ben Roethlisberger even

1382
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 2: kind of has it at this point. But Rosen just

1383
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:35,120
Speaker 2: does not have the mobility that he needs. And last

1384
01:04:35,200 --> 01:04:37,200
Speaker 2: year he wasn't in a good enough of a situation

1385
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:41,000
Speaker 2: to compensate for his lack of mobility. So I think

1386
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:43,680
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a similar situation again with the Dolphins.

1387
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 2: So even if he is good, I think he would

1388
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 2: have to be in a like an ideal situation with

1389
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:54,200
Speaker 2: a good play caller around him, a good enough of

1390
01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 2: an offensive line. I just don't think he's gonna have that.

1391
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 1: And this is what has to scare you if you

1392
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,720
Speaker 1: are a Redskins fan, because like Dwayne Haskins could just

1393
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 1: be what Josh Rosen is, like, you know what I mean,

1394
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 1: And that wouldn't be getting I think there's something kind

1395
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:09,440
Speaker 1: of going on in the NFL as it continues to

1396
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:12,400
Speaker 1: shift to a more efficient spread past heavy league, which

1397
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:15,040
Speaker 1: is that quarterbacks have better numbers. I mean, Elon Manning, lookie,

1398
01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 1: last year you had like a career rolling interception, the

1399
01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 1: career high and completion pretentive. Then the Giants couldn't move

1400
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 1: the ball with two future potentially future Hall of Flamers

1401
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 1: on the roster. So I think that you have the

1402
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 1: situation where because quarterbacks, a lot of quarterbacks aren't throwing

1403
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 1: crazy amounts of interceptions anymore, and a lot of quarterbacks

1404
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 1: aren't completing crazy low you know, having you know, completion

1405
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 1: percentages that look terrible, like even the worst quarterbacks usually

1406
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 1: around like sixty percent these days. It's kind of like

1407
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,080
Speaker 1: you have these undercover quote unquote franchise quarterbacks then in

1408
01:05:42,120 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 1: reality are still setting you back and putting you below

1409
01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 1: the eight balls. Like I think a perfect example this

1410
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:50,240
Speaker 1: is Derek Carr. Like Derek Carr, like you just look

1411
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,720
Speaker 1: at him, you know, you're like, all right, not like terrible.

1412
01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 1: But then you look at the Raiders every year and

1413
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,000
Speaker 1: you know they had one good year and really they

1414
01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 1: haven't been good and Eli Manning. Same thing is, numbers

1415
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:01,960
Speaker 1: aren't like crazy bad. But you look at the Giants,

1416
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 1: they can't move the football, and you look at you

1417
01:06:03,680 --> 01:06:05,320
Speaker 1: look at Rosie. You didn't see anything that's like, oh

1418
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 1: my god, he's gonna be a terrible quarterback in this league,

1419
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:09,720
Speaker 1: like a fatal flaw or anything like that. But you

1420
01:06:09,760 --> 01:06:11,959
Speaker 1: look at the Cardinals and they have an outlyingly low

1421
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 1: yard propacitempt. So it's really it's like that mobility is

1422
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 1: making a huge difference these days. And just like what

1423
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:19,880
Speaker 1: you said, free, but not even just mobility, but just

1424
01:06:19,880 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 1: being able to kind of either get the ball out

1425
01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 1: quick so process quickly, or be able to shift in

1426
01:06:24,400 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 1: the pocket as you're as you're buying yourself more time.

1427
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:29,480
Speaker 1: You can't do either of those things, Like your future

1428
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 1: is not bright. You're just gonna be one of those

1429
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:33,280
Speaker 1: undercover kind of like you look average but in reality

1430
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 1: you're below average.

1431
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:37,440
Speaker 2: All right, man, this was a long episode. I wasn't

1432
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 2: expecting it this long, and the outline even longer. We

1433
01:06:41,720 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 2: could have gone for another hour easily, but let's uh,

1434
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 2: let's cut it here. Raveon. What are you working on

1435
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:48,439
Speaker 2: right now?

1436
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: Best ball piece on players. I like basketball. I'm gonna

1437
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:55,040
Speaker 1: do beasketball strategy guys for for like the week, different

1438
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:56,919
Speaker 1: week sizes, because I know a lot of people playing

1439
01:06:57,000 --> 01:06:59,120
Speaker 1: draft nowadays, so do someone on the small leagues as

1440
01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 1: in addition to the twelve teamers and and the ten teamers.

1441
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 2: All right, corner, what about you? What are you doing.

1442
01:07:07,320 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 3: Best ball teers? So next week I'm gonna start rolling

1443
01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 3: out my tears with quarterback and running back by receiver

1444
01:07:13,520 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 3: tight end shortly behind. So hoping to get all those

1445
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:16,600
Speaker 3: out in the next couple of weeks.

1446
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:19,760
Speaker 2: All right, that is going to do it for this episode.

1447
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,919
Speaker 2: We obviously will have an episode next week. Until then,

1448
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:25,760
Speaker 2: that is going to do it for this episode of

1449
01:07:25,760 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 2: the Action Network NFL podcast. Please rate and review the

1450
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 2: show in iTunes. For Shawn and Chris, I am Matthew

1451
01:07:30,640 --> 01:07:43,440
Speaker 2: Freeman matt at the Oracle. See again next episode.