1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a gay so smooth, 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid. 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: Sisting just glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking for is 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 2: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, 8 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: the most. 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. 10 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying. 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: The wall. It's left to of the wide eyed drill bibus. 13 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: How on Earth pick that happens? 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to a fite sized episode of Wonderful, 15 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 3: the Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name 16 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 3: is Michael E. Buff and joining me today is BJ 17 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: Cunningham Anthony Dubundo. He's out on assignment in the Dominican Republic. 18 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 3: He'll be back with us on Thursday morning to preview 19 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: a full weekend of domestic league. But for now we 20 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 3: have a pretty short but interesting mid week slate. Two 21 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 3: Premier League matches. There should have been three. One was 22 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 3: already canceled. That's Everden in Leicester City, a match that 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 3: has already been postponed once so why not do it again? 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 3: Two EFL the League Cup semi finals. One is the 25 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: second leg between Tottenham and Chelsea, the other is the 26 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: first leg between Liverpool and Arsenal. Then we have a 27 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 3: pair of Super Kopa matches in Spain and BJA is 28 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 3: going to take you on a journey to the Southern 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 3: Hemisphere for the African Cup of Nations. Then we will 30 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 3: go over our best bets for the midweek, but first 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: bj we will start at Saint Mary's where Southampton is 32 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: an even money favorite hosting Brentford, who are three to 33 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 3: one on the money line. The draw is plus two 34 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 3: forty in this one. This is a Tuesday two forty 35 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: five pm kickoff, a little EPL action and island game 36 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 3: for us, so we don't have to wait too long 37 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 3: for the Premier League to come back after it was 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 3: off for the FA Cup. This interesting matchup. We talk 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,119 Speaker 3: about Southampton on the show a lot being a team 40 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: that has a strong relative to where they are in 41 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 3: the standings offense, but Brentford their defense is just as strong. 42 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: This is a strength for strength matchup. The Bees are 43 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 3: top six in non penalty expected goals and shots allowed 44 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 3: for ninety they're also second in well recoveries per ninety well. 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 3: Southampton is seventeenth on offense in that category. So I 46 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: just think that this Brentford team once again provides some value. 47 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 3: I'm going to probably be backing them on the money line. 48 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 3: I'll see if this thing ticks up even further, but 49 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: for me, it's Brentford three to one on the money line. 50 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 1: What about you, I'm coming along with you. I think 51 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: this is actually a pretty good matchup for Brentford, especially 52 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: with Southampton being a little shorthanded. One of their best 53 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: center backs, Valentino Levermento, is out along with Kyle Walker Peters, 54 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: who has COVID. The Southampton defense has been pretty average 55 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: this season and pretty bad as of late. They've allowed 56 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: twelve point two expected goals in their last seven matches. 57 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: Their biggest weakness is allowing scoring chances that conceeded a 58 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: whopping twenty eight so far of this season. So even 59 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: though Brentford's offense has been struggling as of late, they 60 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: haven't created over one expected goal in their last three matches. 61 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be that difficult for them to 62 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: create a few high quality chances against Southampton's defense. On 63 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: the flip side. You already mentioned it. Brentford defensively has 64 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: been outstanding all season long, and as of late only 65 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,399 Speaker 1: four point seven expected goals allowed in their last five matches. 66 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: Like you said, their top six in non penalty expected 67 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: goals allowed and shots per ninety. The biggest thing in 68 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: this matchup, though, is Thomas franks heavy metal pressing style 69 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: should be able to be successful against Southampton, who even 70 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: though they press a ton, they're not very good against 71 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: teams who press them back. They're sixteenth in offensive pass 72 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: for defensive action and pressure success right allowed. Also, the 73 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: way to attack this Brentford defense is crossing the ball 74 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: into the box, but Southampton really is more of a 75 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: direct tack, you know, through the middle of the pitch. 76 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: They have the fourth fewest crosses into the penalty area 77 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: this season. From a projection standpoint, I have this match 78 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: projected a lot closer to a pick them. I mean 79 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: you need to look at expected golder renchal Brentford as 80 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: around plus one point nine and Southampton's at minus four 81 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,839 Speaker 1: point four, so around to pick them Southampton at plus 82 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: one sixty seven is the projection. So I love the 83 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: Bees plus half a goal at minus one fifteen. 84 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 3: We've been talking a lot on the show too about 85 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: the teams that are good underdogs, their profiles good underdogs, 86 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 3: and Brentford is just an absolute You just can trust 87 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 3: them in spots, especially against a flawed team like Southampton. 88 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 3: So you and I will both be on the Bees 89 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 3: on Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon two forty five pm kickoff, 90 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 3: west Ham minus three sixty hosting Norich City, who are 91 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 3: ten to one on the money line. The draw is 92 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 3: plus four to seventy five. The Canaries man fourteen goals allowed, 93 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 3: no goals scored, three point three to three expected goals created, 94 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 3: and eleven point three to three expected goals allowed in 95 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 3: their last five matches. It's really hard to get behind 96 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: this team. But minus three sixty is just that's making 97 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 3: things just way too expensive on west Ham in this wabble. 98 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: The Hammers are a little overpriced here. I have them 99 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: projected around minus two seventy. You still know cur Zuoma, 100 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: Aaron Cresswell and obviously Angelo Obana who's out for the season, 101 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: which means the Hammer's offense still has to carry them 102 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: and which you know there are still somewhat healthy. But 103 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: like you mentioned, you know Norwich is way overdue for 104 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: to put the ball in the back of the net. 105 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 1: They've created, you know, three point three expect goals in 106 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: their last five matches. Timupuki will be back in the lineup. 107 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: Might see some Todd can't well as well, so it 108 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: won't be that you know, pathetic lineup that they put 109 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: out against Crystal Palace during the festive fixtures. West Ham 110 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: has been pretty shaky defensively. I mean that last match 111 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: against Crystal Palace they just hung on dear life after 112 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: going up three nothing allowed two goals, two point two 113 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: expected goals and thirty six shot creating actions to the Eagles. 114 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 1: So it's not crazy to think that Norwich can get 115 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: on the board here. And west Ham without Cresswell, Zuma 116 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: and Obana is allowing one point five to one expected 117 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: goals per match, so it's gonna have to be the 118 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: Hammer's offense carrying them. You could see, you know, this 119 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: be like a four to one win or something like that. 120 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: I do think the Hammers can basically just pick whatever 121 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: score they want. It's very hard to see how this 122 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 1: Norwich defense is actually going to slow them down. The 123 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: big thing though with Norwich is when they go behind. 124 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: It just gets worse from there. They've spent around eight 125 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: hundred minutes this season playing from behind, and when they 126 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: play from behind, they're allowing one point eight four expected 127 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes during that time. In west Ham, 128 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: their last three matches, offensive play have created six point 129 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: six expected goals. So I'm gonna steer towards the over 130 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: here over three goals at plus one fifteen. I have 131 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: two point nine goals projected, so I'm gonna take the 132 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: over three goals at plus one fifteen. But I do 133 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: agree with you that west Ham is a little overpriced here. 134 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna be able to look away from 135 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 3: the money line on Norwich. It's it's more of a 136 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 3: play against west Ham. We I don't trust Norwich as 137 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: far as I can throw them, but you're gonna give 138 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 3: you ten to one to go against the team. I 139 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 3: know it's on the road, but you're going against a 140 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 3: team that's in their last five two to one to two, 141 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 3: that's win draw, lost nine goals for, eight goals against 142 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 3: and a negative expected goal of differential in that last five. 143 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 3: And look west Ham's defense uh five point oh seven 144 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 3: expected goals allowed in their last three games and they 145 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 3: came against Saints Watford in Palace. So this is a 146 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 3: team that, like you said, they're giving up chances and 147 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 3: if Norwich can find a way to put one or 148 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 3: two behind them and maybe put a little pressure on 149 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 3: west Ham, who knows. No matter how you look at it, 150 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: it looks I know a lot of people probably lump 151 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 3: west Ham into moneyline parlay on Wednesday, and if you 152 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 3: want to do that, you know, go right ahead. But 153 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 3: for me it's hard to look away for a big 154 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 3: ticket going against a flawed team that's in wobbling form 155 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 3: right now. So Norich City attend to one for me 156 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 3: party on. We'll stay in England but will shift over 157 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 3: to a different competition. That's the EFL Cup, the League Cup, 158 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 3: the Caramell Cup, whatever you want to call it. The 159 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 3: Wednesday kickoff two forty five pm is Tottenham hosting Chelsea. 160 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 3: The Spurs are plus one fifty home favorites, Chelsea coming 161 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 3: back plus one sixty two, the draws plus two to fifty. 162 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 3: Some game theory stuff. You got to think about. Chelsea's 163 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 3: up two nil on aggregate after the first leg last week, 164 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: so I think that this game I don't have anything 165 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 3: right now, I would lean towards Spurs at the price, 166 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 3: but I wonder about some live betting angles. We talk 167 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 3: about it a lot of times betters will overreact to 168 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 3: scores and situations in the first leg. So what do 169 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 3: you see in this one? Do you think anything pre game, 170 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 3: anything you're looking for after the whistle blows? 171 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: Yeah? I do kind of like Spurs at the number 172 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: at plus one fifty. It's kind of hard to look 173 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: away from that, especially down to zero. You know, Chelsea 174 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: could give up a goal and still you know, move 175 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: through to the final. As far as the live bidding 176 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: angles are concerned. You know, I went and looked at 177 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 1: you know, how each team. Obviously it's going to be 178 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: a zero zero game start, but from an aggregate standpoint, 179 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: Spurs is playing from behind and Chelsea's playing with lead. 180 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: When Chelsea plays with the lead this season, they have 181 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: around a plus point five expected goal differential per ninety minutes, 182 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 1: while Tottenham, when they're played from behind, they have around 183 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 1: a minus point six expect a gold differential per ninety minutes. 184 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: So you know, the numbers don't really add up for Spurs, 185 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: especially you know, coming back from this two zero deficit. 186 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: But the biggest thing with these Cup matches, and you 187 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: know this kind of applies to the FA Cup as well. 188 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: It's just so hard to you know, provide analysis or 189 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 1: bet this before you even see what the lineups are 190 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: going to be. Because Spurs has North London Derby coming 191 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: up against Arsenal on Sunday and Chelsea has to play 192 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: Manchester City on Saturday. So for a cup that really 193 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: doesn't mean much. I mean, obviously it means a lot 194 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: of Spurs, you know they can get a trophy, but 195 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 1: to Chelsea this really doesn't mean a whole lot to them. 196 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: I mean the winner gets you know, an automatic qualification 197 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 1: in the Europa Conference, with Chelsea's going to be in 198 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: the Champions League, so this really doesn't matter for them 199 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 1: other than just some silverware. For Tuchel, I have to 200 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: see what the lineups are going to be. So if 201 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: there could be a scenario where Chelsea comes out with 202 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 1: maybe more of a defensive lineup, you know, Tucchel maybe 203 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: wants to, you know, see if they can see a 204 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: game out defensively and like they did last year during 205 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: that historic stretch Tottenham, I don't think they're going to 206 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 1: do it. I don't think Kante is that type of guy. 207 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: But they could pack it in. They could just say, 208 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 1: you know what, the Premier League's more important right now, 209 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: you know, trying to get top four. Beating Arsenal in 210 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,719 Speaker 1: North London Derby, that's kind of important because you know 211 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: the FA Cup this weekend when they played Morecambe, they 212 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 1: had to bring some of their best players off the 213 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: bench just to get them through out of the fifth round. 214 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 1: So I do like Spurs the price a plus one fifty, 215 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: but I need to see what the lineups are going 216 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: to before I play it. 217 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 3: Yes, a similar thing. Quote's true in the first light 218 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 3: between Liverpool, who were plus one twenty five hosting Arsenal 219 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 3: two to one on the money line, the draws plus 220 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 3: two seventy five. As you said, North London Darby coming 221 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 3: our way. So Arsenal and Tottenham both could an Arsenal 222 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 3: definitely has much more room to do it if they 223 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 3: are in this competition right because this is the first 224 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: leg they're going away, so if they do want to 225 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 3: rest their starters and gear them up for Tottenham over 226 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 3: the weekend, they can definitely do it and not look 227 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 3: as silly, I guess is the best way to put 228 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: it as Tottenham would in a game where they need 229 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 3: to have a good performance to get through to the 230 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 3: Cup final. It's tough because I think we talked about 231 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 3: it previewing the first leg that was going to take 232 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 3: place at the Emirates. It's just really hard to know 233 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 3: how klop is going to go into this one. I 234 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 3: don't think we're going to see a full strength Liverpool squad. 235 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 3: Of course we're not going to because of Salamane et 236 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 3: cetera being af CON, but I'm talking about like from 237 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 3: his available players. I think he's going to be pretty 238 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: picky as well. I do think that the draws may 239 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 3: be a little interesting because I could see both teams 240 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 3: kind of being more pragmatic to their approach in this 241 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 3: then they normally would. We know that Klopp wants to 242 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 3: play heavy metal football, that's not gonna be the case, 243 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 3: and Arsenal I they can afford to sit back and 244 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 3: maybe just make things as kind of ugly and boring 245 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 3: as possible. So I don't think the draw at three 246 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 3: to one. You know, Liverpool draws are not You don't 247 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 3: want to make a habit out of betting the draw 248 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 3: in Liverpool matches, but here it might be the only 249 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 3: way I would look just considering the circumstances after the 250 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 3: postponed leg. Do you have anything here Reds and Gunners. 251 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's kind of a stay away from me. 252 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 1: I don't really either of these teams. I don't really 253 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 1: know where their heads are at right now. You know, Liverpool, 254 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: we just don't have any data on what Liverpool is 255 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: like without solid Mana. They're just so important to Liverpool attack. 256 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: And I understand Diego Jolta has been you know, incredible, 257 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: might see Origi or Minamino. It's just tough to bet 258 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: this first leg. You know. Arsenal obviously about out of 259 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: the FA Cup to Nottingham Forest on Sunday. They played 260 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:54,439 Speaker 1: a relatively full strength lineup. Obviously Gabrielle was suspended, so 261 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: that's kind of concerning for Arsenal. You know, losing to 262 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 1: a championship side on the road the North London has 263 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: got to be circled on the calendar here for Arsenal, 264 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 1: they really can't put everything into this first leg match 265 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: against Liverpool. So I agree with you. I mean, taking 266 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 1: a shot of the draw at three to one's is 267 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: actually a pretty good play for me. I just really 268 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: need to see what these lineups are going to be. Like, 269 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 1: it's very hard to bet Liverpool right now, you know, 270 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: without solid mane to just you know, they even trying 271 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: to project. That is kind of a gauntlet. So it's 272 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: a stay away from me. I really hope that Arsenal 273 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: can get through this, but I would actually be a 274 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: lot happier if they maybe sat some of their best players, 275 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: like maybe if they sat Sokka and Oda Guard and 276 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: you know whoever and just try to focus on beating 277 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: Tottenham on Sunday. I wouldn't blame Marteta for that, yes. 278 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,559 Speaker 3: Especially as Tottenham's got an extra day of rest. You know. 279 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 3: So the UFL Cup, you get to the semi finals 280 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 3: and it has just become an absolute gang show with 281 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: the way it's set up, and that kind of speaks 282 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 3: to the tournament itself. But hey, if you want to 283 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 3: bet it, go for it. All power to you, and 284 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 3: who knows, maybe all four managers go for it all right, 285 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: And with that we'll move over to for another peculiar tournament. 286 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 3: This one is the Supercopa, which is taking place actually 287 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 3: not in Spain, it's taking place in Riad, Saudi Arabia. 288 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 3: Can't say why that's going there. We all know the 289 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: reason that these tournaments and these teams loves going over 290 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 3: to the Middle East, right now, it's usually very green, 291 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 3: that's the reason. And yeah, so Barcelona they're they're heading 292 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 3: over to Saudi Arabia along with Real Madrid. The other 293 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 3: matches Atletico Madrid taking on Athletic boat Bow. The way 294 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 3: this tournament works is you get the winner and the 295 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 3: runner up of La Liga, and then the winner and 296 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 3: the runner up of Copa del Rey, which is the 297 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,679 Speaker 3: Spanish version of the FA Cup. You put those four 298 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 3: teams into a mini tournament and let them play and 299 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 3: make money over in the Middle East. And I think 300 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 3: there's one team in particular here that will take this 301 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 3: tournament more seriously than the others, and that's Barcelona, who 302 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,959 Speaker 3: are plus two forty in their match in now Classico 303 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 3: taking place in the Middle East with Real Madrid, who 304 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,199 Speaker 3: are even money on the money line. The dress plus 305 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 3: two sixty. This is a Wednesday two pm kickoff. The 306 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 3: reason I think Barcelona takes it seriously is that their 307 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 3: season has kind of been diminished to qualifying for Champions 308 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 3: League in La Liga, maybe making a run in Europa League, 309 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 3: which you know this is Barcelona. The Europa League is 310 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 3: under their standards, and here Copa del Rey and Super 311 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 3: Copa Rya just rack up. I guess the secondary kind 312 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 3: of trophies and this is one of them. Plus their manager, Javi, 313 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 3: he just managed for a couple of seasons in the 314 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 3: Middle East, so it's kind of a weird quasi homecoming 315 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 3: for him. And Barcelona's been all right. Another painful result 316 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 3: for them, a one to one draw. You, me and 317 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 3: Anthony were all on Barcelona one one against Grenada. They 318 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 3: went up one nail in the second half. Gobby gets 319 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 3: a red card in what the eightieth minute, eighty ninth minute, 320 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 3: like clockwork tie ballgame. Barcelona walks out of the stadium 321 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 3: with their tail between their likes. But the defense is 322 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 3: doing its job, allowing under one expect to go in 323 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 3: five of the last six matches, and their offensive numbers 324 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 3: are good. They might not have the finishing talent and 325 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 3: the depth that they normally do, but they're still creating 326 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 3: chances and they're going against the defense that is tenth 327 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 3: and non penalty expected goes allowed, fifteenth and big chances 328 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 3: allowed in La Liga. And I just don't really think 329 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 3: Real Madrid is going to be too fussed with this matchup, 330 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 3: So I think Barcelona is a good bet here. 331 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, who would have thought we had 332 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 2: looped along up top for Barcelona coming into this season, 333 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: But you know, Barcelona should be relatively healthy for this 334 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 2: match that you know, they've obviously had a lot of 335 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 2: guys out due to COVID the last few matches, and 336 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 2: this is another spot where we've all been. 337 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: Trying to buy low on Barcelona pretty much the entire 338 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: season and it has hasn't really worked. But this is 339 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: obviously another good spot. If we go back to when 340 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: these two teams met earlier in the season, it was 341 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: the very end of the Ronald Colemanira he got fired. 342 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: The next game against Reevaicano, Barcelona lost to one, but 343 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: they won the expected goals battle one point seven to 344 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: one point one. They had more shot creating actions, touches 345 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: in the penalty area and box entries than Real Madrid 346 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: on that day. Even if we just look at expected 347 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: goal differential per match, Barcelona this season is sitting at 348 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: point six to six. Real Madrid is sitting at point 349 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: sixty four. So these teams, based on their nderlying metrics, 350 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: are pretty much the same. But Real Madrid has just 351 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: been completely overperforming offensively because they have two incredible finishers 352 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: in Venetias Junior and Cream Benzema, while Barcelona, like I 353 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: just mentioned, is relying on Luke Deong and Memphis to 354 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: Pi and a lot of other young guys to finish 355 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: those chances. You know, Barcelona offensively thirty two expected goals 356 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: and have only scored thirty one off those. Real Madrid 357 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: has about thirty seven expected goals but has scored forty 358 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: five off of those. So these offenses are creating similar chances. 359 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: They just Barcelona hasn't been able to finish them. This 360 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: is a good matchup for Barcelona. Like I mentioned, they've 361 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: already they've been getting healthier. Real Madrid defensively is still 362 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: tenth and non penalty expected goals allowed, and they're fifteenth 363 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: in big scoring chances allowed. They've conceded twenty two already 364 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: this season. This is another good spot for a bilo 365 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: on Barcelona. I have this match projected closer to it 366 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: pick them, So give me Shabby's men in the Middle 367 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: East plus half a goal at minus one twenty. 368 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny that have Barcelona's turned it to you 369 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 3: know called that. If that's stature, usually you're not going 370 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: to find value on teams like this throughout a season. 371 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 3: And they've caused us just a dramatic amount of pain 372 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 3: in the past few months. 373 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: It's just so so frustrating. 374 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 3: No, it's not fun. I feel like you are being 375 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 3: forced to bet on Barcelona. That's not the way it's 376 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 3: supposed to be with a club of the size. The 377 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 3: other one, the other match in the Super Kopa Atletico 378 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,479 Speaker 3: Madrid odds on minus one twenty five hosting My Boys 379 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 3: from Bill Boo Athletic Club Bill Bow, who won this 380 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 3: tournament last year. Bill Bow's plus three thirty three on 381 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,479 Speaker 3: the money line. The draws plus two forty Thursday at 382 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 3: two pm. Two terrific defensive teams. Atletico first in non 383 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 3: penalty expected goals allowed, bursting shots allowed, first in big chances. 384 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 3: Bill Boo is second in non penalty expected goals and 385 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 3: second in big chance is allowed. Feels like a draw, Smells. 386 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: Like a draw. 387 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 3: I'm gonna be betting the draw on this one, especially 388 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 3: because I don't know what kind of situation. I think 389 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 3: Bill Bao might go for this because it's similar to Barcelona. 390 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 3: I think it'll matter to them a little bit because 391 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 3: they're not guaranteed like Madrid and Atletti are. Their season 392 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 3: is basically down to this so or making a run 393 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 3: in league to qualify. So I think Boboo could come 394 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 3: into this one and want to defend their title. They're 395 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 3: club that doesn't really win all that much silverware in 396 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 3: this era of La Liga, so I think that they'll 397 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 3: be able to hang with Atletico and do their thing 398 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 3: and drag this match deep into the night in the 399 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,479 Speaker 3: Middle East. So I think the draw plus two forties 400 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 3: pretty interesting. I mean, I'll be deciding between the draw. 401 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,479 Speaker 3: I should say I'm interested in the draw, but I'm 402 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 3: also interested in Bilboo. If that money line ticks up 403 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 3: further on bill Boo, I could see some value there too, 404 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 3: So undecided for me. We'll see how the lines line 405 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 3: up shakeout. Who travels to Saudi Arabia. Who even knows 406 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 3: what like the COVID protocol will be with getting in there, 407 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 3: So a lot to keep in mind there. But I 408 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 3: know this is not providing all that much insight, but 409 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 3: that's the way I'm looking right now. 410 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what's funny, I just looked It's kind 411 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: of off topic. But Athletic Bilbao plays Barcelona and Cople 412 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: Deil Ray on Sunday, So I don't know who the 413 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: hell I'm gonna bet in that one. Maybe just bet 414 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: the draw or something like that between the two hundred 415 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: performing teams. But no, I mean, you know, Athletico didn't 416 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: have a very good performance today. They drew to two 417 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: with the Arial on Sunday, but they all have two 418 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,880 Speaker 1: point six expected goals you know, only created around point nine, 419 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: so not really that great of a you know, to 420 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: two draw bill ball. On the other hand, they were 421 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: pretty unimpressive against Alaba. It's only point six expected goals created. 422 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 3: You know. 423 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: Athletico obviously has been very very good defensively this season. 424 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: They've only allowed zero point eight expected goals per match 425 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: in La Ligo, which is one of the best marks 426 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: among Europe's top five leagues. These teams play very similar styles, 427 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 1: you know, four to four to two, looking to hit 428 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 1: people on the counter. The last time they met earlier 429 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 1: in La Lega this season, it was a snoozer zero 430 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 1: zero draw, with only one point nine expected goals created 431 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: and only two shots registered on target. I haven't seen 432 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: a line come out yet for the both teams to score. No, 433 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: I haven't projected at minus one eighty, so if I 434 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: can get that, I don't know if I'm gonna be 435 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: able to But if I can get that below minus 436 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 1: one sixty, I'll probably end up playing that. But again, 437 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: like you mentioned, this goes for any really league or 438 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: sport right now, you know with the COVID protocol, who's 439 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: gonna be there who's not. This is, you know, another 440 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: cup match that we've kind of preached it on this podcast, 441 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: but it applies to Spain as well. With these cup 442 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: matches is you have to almost just wait and see 443 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 1: what the lineups are going to be because you just 444 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: don't know how seriously these clubs are gonna take it, 445 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: because obviously Champions League and their domestic leagues are so 446 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: much more important. So I'm looking towards both teams to 447 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: score now because I think this could be another snoozer 448 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 1: observe Zio draw and problem at all playing the draw 449 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: at that number. But other than that, this is just 450 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: kind of a stay away for me. 451 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think snoozer for that one is the right word, 452 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 3: because you can imagine what the hype surrounding a El 453 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 3: Classico in Saudi Arabia, be like, I'm sure the ticket 454 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 3: prices will be absurd, and everybody who's anybody there we 455 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 3: want to go. And then the next night you're looking 456 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 3: at Yeah, to their famous clubs in Spain, but they 457 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 3: don't have the pinatch that Barcelona and Real Madrid do, 458 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 3: so it'll be kind of interesting just to watch those 459 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 3: too and see what the atmosphere is like. That's really 460 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 3: it for the Slate. So from there, Usually we like 461 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 3: to give out our favorite underdog, but it would feel 462 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 3: weird doing that without Anthony, so we're gonna skip underdogs 463 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 3: for the midweek. We'll have some big time pooches for 464 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 3: you over the weekend, though. You have my word on that, 465 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 3: and it said, we'll go to best bets for the 466 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 3: midweek and I will let you get this one started. 467 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, for those who don't know, the Africa Cup of 468 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: Nations is going on right now, and I like, on 469 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 1: Tuesday a huge match, Nigeria is taking on Egypt. Egypt 470 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: is a slight favorite and it really doesn't make much 471 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 1: sense to me. I understand that Mosala is probably the 472 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: best player in the world right now, but he doesn't 473 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: have much surrounding him with Egypt, and I think that 474 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: this line is kind of indicative of best player in 475 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: the world is playing for Egypt, so automatically they should 476 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 1: be favorites. Well that's not really the case. Most Sala 477 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: is incredible, but at the same time he has some 478 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: of the best players in the world supplying him, like 479 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: Trent Alexander Arnold, Andrew Robertson and Saudio Mane. Well, none 480 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 1: of those guys are there right now. I mean, if 481 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: you look at Egypt's lineup, some names you might recognize. 482 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: You know, Elnenni who's a backup midfielder for Arsenal, Tresigay 483 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: who is a backup winger for aston Villa. They have 484 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: a couple guys won the place for gile Tassie and 485 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: won that place for the FP Stute Guard, but other 486 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,719 Speaker 1: than that, they don't have anybody that plays in one 487 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: of Europe's top five leagues. Even through you know, Africa 488 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: Cup of Nations and World Cup qualifying, they were not 489 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 1: impressive at all. They're expected goals numbers. In fact, they 490 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: only had a point one expected gold differential through twelve 491 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: qualifying matches, so not that impressive at all. Nigeria, on 492 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: the other hand, is a really talented team with maybe 493 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: the most depth of talent of anybody in this field 494 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: throughout their qualifying matches plus nine point six expected goldfferential, 495 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: so very impressive. They have a lot of names you 496 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 1: might recognize, like Indeed from Leicester, e Woby from Everton, 497 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: Onyeka from Brentford, and it just goes on and on 498 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: and on. They have a depth of talent in the 499 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 1: country of Nigeria, and I really don't understand why they're 500 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: underdogs here and considering they if you look at you know, 501 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: transfer market dot com, their total transfer value is third 502 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: among all African teams, while Egypt is around sixth or seventh, 503 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: and a lot of that is due to Mosaalad. So 504 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,239 Speaker 1: I don't really understand why they're underdogs here. I love 505 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: Nigeria on the John O. Bett line, which is currently 506 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: at plus one fifteen, and I'd play anything plus money 507 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 1: and I'd even sprinkle a little bit on the money. 508 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 3: Line at plus two twenty go super Eagles. I think 509 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 3: you like them as a future to win the African 510 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,680 Speaker 3: cump Nations too, if you can find. 511 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: That right right. Yeah, So they're ten to one right 512 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: now at DraftKings, and you know the stuff I already mentioned, 513 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: you know, plus nine point six expected gold differential, third 514 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: highest transfer value of anybody in the tournament, and they're 515 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: currently around eighth on the odds board. You know, Senegal 516 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: and Algeria are the favorites right now. Algeria won the 517 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: last Africa Coup Nations in twenty nineteen. Senegal obviously has 518 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: the most talent of anybody in this field, with Saudi 519 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: Omane and Edward Mendi playing for them. You go down 520 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 1: the ods board, it's you know, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Egypt, 521 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: you know, Morocco, and then you have Nigeria sitting there 522 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: at ten to one, and it seems kind of crazy 523 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: to me that they're not up there at third or 524 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: fourth on the odds board, considering their expected goals numbers 525 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: were around third or fourth best and they have, you know, 526 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: based on transfer market value, the third highest in Africa, 527 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: So it seems kind of crazy to me they're sitting 528 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: there at ten to one. So well, I love the 529 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: Super Eagles to win the afric Cup Nations attend to one. Yeah, 530 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: I think they've had success in tournaments before. 531 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 3: I think the Olympics and some you know they make 532 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 3: they'll be within a shot of making the knockout rounds 533 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 3: of the World Cups usually, so yeah, Nigeria might not 534 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 3: have been expecting to hear some African Cup of Nations 535 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 3: breakdown here on wonder goal, but you know, if they're 536 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 3: soccer being played, we're going to try to do our 537 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 3: best to cover it. For me, my favorite bet over 538 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 3: the midweek is Brentford. We talk about the Bees profiling 539 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 3: as a strong underdog team because of their defense and 540 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 3: their ability to claw their way into games and drag 541 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 3: matches deep into the evening, and that's what I expect 542 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 3: them to do against Southampton. Brentford their defense is ranks 543 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 3: in the top six and non penalty expected goals and 544 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 3: shots allowed for ninety this season. Southampton's strength is his 545 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 3: offense and their ability to create chances. But I think 546 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 3: Brentford will be able to handle that and I think 547 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 3: that these two teams, the matchup really suits. Brentford the 548 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 3: second best defense in terms of ball recoveries. Southampton's offense 549 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 3: is seventeenth in that stat. Southampton is not a team 550 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 3: that will really punish you with and that's that's the 551 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 3: best way to bust down the doors of this Brentford defense. 552 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 3: They are twentieth in crosses allowed per ninety but Southampton's 553 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 3: only seventeenth in producing those crosses, so I think the 554 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 3: matchup is pretty nifty here for Brentford three to one 555 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 3: on the money line, traveling to Southampton on Tuesday afternoon. 556 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 3: Give me the Bees baby, a team that has treated 557 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 3: us pretty well over the course of the season. Brentford 558 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 3: plus three hundred and with that, the truncated episode of 559 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 3: Wondergul has come to an end. Hopefully we'll get Anthony 560 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 3: back from assignment in time for recording on Wednesday night 561 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,399 Speaker 3: and we will have a full trio, the full trio 562 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:39,360 Speaker 3: back in action to preview the weekend for the Premier League, Bundesliga, 563 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 3: A Cobodel ray everything that we can get our hands onto. 564 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,439 Speaker 3: It's going to be a busy weekend in soccer coming up. 565 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 3: So for BJ Cunningham and the absent Anthony Dubundo, I'm 566 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 3: Michael leab Up saying so long and we will see 567 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 3: you on Thursday morning.