WEBVTT - Markets Carry on Amid Global Political Turmoil 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:21.240 on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.880 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.040 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:31.120 Demon shivererbu Fedator has perfect to speak to you this morning. 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:32.680 Is there a melt up out there? 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:35.239 I think we're headed higher. I mean, I'll start there. 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.840 I mean, I think there's a couple of things going on. One, 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:40.720 you know, on the tech front, people have been waiting 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.320 or worrying about when tech capax is going to peak, 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:47.120 and I think the amald the AMD deal today is 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.559 another reminder that we're not there yet. And then I 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:51.440 think when you look at the rest of the market, 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:56.400 and we just did this exercise, earnings estimates are not 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:58.560 only holding in and rising, but we think they're still 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:00.880 too low and likely to have even higher. And I 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.920 think that is driving markets higher. When you have an 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.720 environment tom when rates are coming down and earnings are accelerating, 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:09.240 equities go higher. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.080 So okay, so equities go higher. 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:15.000 One of the underpinnings of that bullish call here is 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:16.600 the Federal reserve. How do you think the Fed's going 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:18.640 to proceed from here? We got that one twenty five 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.200 basis point cut, which was welcomed. 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:22.160 Where do we go from here? 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.759 Do you think, well, they can't very well be data dependent, right, Yeah, 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.760 that's right, we're not. We're not getting a whole bunch. Look, 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:29.520 you know, what we've said is that you've had kind 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:32.120 of two economies. You've had the high end consumer, you've 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.479 had tech, and you've had tech gaffex and it's doing fine. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.400 The rest of the economy has essentially been in a recession, 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:40.720 whether it's shipping, whether it's small business, whether it's housing, 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:43.360 whether it's autos, whether it's the low and mid end consumer. 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.160 And I think that that is becoming the primary focus 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.600 of the FED, particularly as it's affecting labor markets and 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.160 they're slowing. So, you know, we've always been of the 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.760 belief that a slow, steady path to neutral made the 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.560 most sense. We thought they would start that or continue 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:00.760 that path in the first part of this year. They 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.280 took a six month break. We think they're now resuming 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.240 that path. So we expect twenty five in October, twenty 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.600 five of December, and then three twenty fives next year. 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:12.440 If we stay, we don't see exuberance. Is it just 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:17.120 one big overt or subtle short cover that's going on 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:20.519 right now? And even if it wasn't a blatant shorts, 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.519 people that said I'm not going to participate, and here 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:26.440 they are in October going damn, I got to get in. 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:29.760 We said back in April that what we would see 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:34.960 is a slow, soul crushing grind higher. And what you 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:38.240 had is you had this kind of perfect mix of 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:41.960 extreme and sudden bearishness that hit in April. Kind of 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:45.280 folks that are always bearish that finally saw come upance, 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.840 people that are bearished for political reasons, people that were 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:52.840 bearish on tech, and when they jumped into that bearish 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:55.440 kind of pond in April, and then you started to 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:57.720 see things get better. You started to see progress on 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:00.800 one big beautiful bill. You saw some certainty around tariffs. 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.919 We said that they would slowly be drawn in as 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.639 the fundamentals took over. I think that's just what we're seeing, Tom, 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.080 is that you can't be wrong all year. 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.720 How about this market in terms of concentration, Steve on 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.359 the equity side, here, is that a concern too, that 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.880 we've had that concentration seemingly for several years now. 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.720 Yes, But what I'd say is, if you look underneath 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.639 the hood, particularly over the last couple of months, you've 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:27.200 seen small caps assert themselves. 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:29.279 Small caps out performed by six percent. 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:30.520 In August and are holding their own again. 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:32.000 You know here as we get into. 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:34.440 October, I think you see some of the early cyclicals, 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.200 whether it's the home builders, whether it's some of the 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:40.800 shipping names, the market is acting early cycle. There's elements 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.560 of the market that are early cycle beat up plays 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:45.000 that are starting. 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:45.400 To get off the mat. 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.240 So am I worried about concentration, not now, but I 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.560 do want to see it broad now within the. 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:54.600 Core federated approach, which is the iconic images of Steve 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:59.240 Us and Steve Chiver. It's about free cash flow growth rate. 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.520 Here anybody telling me it's broken. It is the financial 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:08.880 system that generates free cash flow still in place. It is. 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:11.400 And I think the question is, and this is where 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.480 it gets interesting, Tom, is you know, the story for 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:16.320 the last couple of years has been about pre cash 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:20.560 flow generation and asset light businesses. What we've seen is 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.000 amongst these mag seven all of a sudden they're becoming 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.640 capex heavy, right they're not as asset light as they were, 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.080 and now the market's been willing to reward that. 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:29.920 Right now. 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.560 We'll see if that continues. It's incumbent upon them to 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.320 continue to demonstrate, and they have the last couple of 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.120 quarters that there's a return on that invested capital. And 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:41.680 as long as that's the case, I think these names 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:42.719 continue to power higher. 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.000 One more question, what do the Yankees need to do to. 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:45.760 Get back home? 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.839 I think the Yankees need to get organizationally, back to 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:52.880 playing good baseball, moving runners over, having productive outs, getting 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.960 ahead in the count. I think they need more changes 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:58.320 than what's going to happen over the says. 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:00.000 This is pre gardener you're talking about. 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.719 I'd like to see some good old fashioned, fundamental baseball 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.040 allah the Joe Tory Don Zimmer years, But I don't 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:06.919 think it's in the career. 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.240 Go see he said that because he saw how I 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:12.560 fit my buss. Yeah, it sucks. Checker like dun Zimber, 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.800 Steve Shivone, go away, Steve Shiver over. This is federated. 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:21.080 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.880 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.120 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:38.880 Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:40.480 watch us live on YouTube. 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:42.800 First name I requested here with a blow up in 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:48.680 Japan of LDP shocking with the reaffirmation of abbe politics. 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.760 Yes she's the first woman, but far more she loves 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:58.239 Iron Maiden and black Sabbath. Wow, A conservative members looks 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.480 like they'll be appointed here in a couple weeks. Minister 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:04.680 Suna Takichi. Jordan Rochester joins us with the return, let 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.200 me get this out of the way as quick as 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.960 I can. Can you give a target on yen right now? 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:13.279 Is this an opportunity for strong yen at one fifty? 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.280 I think that is a good A good question, Tom. 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:18.320 I think it is so that this is going to 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.880 be counterintuitive to many people who've been listening channelists. 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:22.280 Probably. 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:27.240 Sanae Takeichi is a disciple of armenomics, and armenomics typically 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.560 means higher dolly En. However, she's been neutralized in terms 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.760 of her pulsive views because the LDP have lost a 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.480 lot of seats the ARME faction itself has lost a 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:37.279 lot of seats, so I don't think she's going to 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:40.200 be the big fiscal spender, the big monetary eas that 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:43.000 Abe was. Japan has an inflation problem, so I think 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.120 we actually go back down to one forty two in 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.520 dolly En. The timing of that has been delayed, of course, 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:49.400 but I think that that's still going to be a 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:50.840 late Q four Q one story. 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:52.760 Okay, so there's the fair Fax. We're going to switch 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:55.279 gears here today and talk about politics of Japan and 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:59.120 what it means for Americans, and I quite Jordan Rochester 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.800 of Mizuo with Robert Feldman and Morgan Stanley with an 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:08.160 extraordinary perspective on Japan. The bottom line, Jordan is I 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:13.360 see price down in bonds, yield up. What does that 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.520 mean for the financial system of Japan. 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.760 Well, it's the ultra long end where the yields have 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.760 gone up the most. This is the part of the 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.560 JDB curb which has probably the least amount of demand 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.400 now from domestic investors. For the first time in the history. 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:31.720 I've been watching this part of the curb. And who's 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:35.120 buying it? Tom, it's actually foreign investors. A large amounts 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.920 of American investment into this long end over fifty to 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:40.920 nearly sixty percent of the trading volume in the ultra 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:43.200 long end, which is anything that's from around twenty to 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:47.320 thirty year JGBS is traded by foreigners, and what they 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.240 demand when they have this uncertainty, they demand a high yield, 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.000 lower price. So that's been a big driver of that. 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:54.840 But for the front end of the curve and for 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.800 the Japanese financial stability, I don't think it's going to 0:07:57.800 --> 0:07:59.920 be too big of a risk right now because the 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.320 sort of front end has been much more well behaved 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.120 and the market is treating this as a cautious Bank 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:10.080 of Japan hiking cycle rather than being two behind the curve. 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:12.160 At one point the market might start to say that, 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.200 and indeed the long end it might be implying that. 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:16.520 But right now, the market's been very kind to the 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:20.000 BOJ and Japan. And yes we've lowered the pricing for 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:23.240 BOJ redwigs, but you've got the nickeye at the historical highs. 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.880 I was shocked at the reporting today and the immigration 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:31.520 into Japan. The delta here, thank you CFR Sheila Smith. 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:35.359 Over it's comes on foreign relations. Is there a seismic 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:41.360 immigration migrant change in Japan that underpins this Jordan Rochester. 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.360 You've actually seen a big increase in the number of 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.240 foreign workers in Japan. So it's close to three point 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.040 eight percent four percent of total employees in Japan are 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:54.160 foreign born, and this is because of the demographic problem. 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:57.719 Roughly around six hundred thousand people less in Japan due 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:01.800 to more deaths than births is right here and now, 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:04.280 and that could be rising to a million in a 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:07.400 decade or so. So Japan needs immigration to fix that gap. 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:10.560 But you have now elected a conservative PM. She's conservative 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.960 in her ideals. And there's also another party called the 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:17.480 Sansato Party in Japan, which is essentially a position which 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:19.959 is not as pro immigration as the other parties are. 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:22.320 So there is a back clash to the rise in immigration. 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:24.640 There is a backlash to the rise in tourism as 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:28.040 well culturally, and that's taking place in Japanese politics. 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:30.560 So, Jordan, I'd love for you to just to kind 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:34.880 of summarize or synthesize for our listeners, our viewers who 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:39.960 aren't really familiar with Japanese politics what this win by 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.200 Miss Tagichi means for Japan. 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.520 Pretty much for most of Japanese modern history. The LDP party, 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:50.959 which is she is now the leader of, has been 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.880 in charge only for a few periods, have they not, 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.440 And it's usually between the different factions of the LDP 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:01.240 that policy agendas are determined which which faction is larger 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:04.640 in the vote share and take she stands out as 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:07.280 soon who's quite different. She's not from a political dynasty. 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:09.800 She is more of an ordinary person in terms of 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:12.400 she doesn't naturally belong to any of those factions, so 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:15.800 she has the ability to negotiate between them all. But 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:20.679 she does have very strong opinions on her political policy front, 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.600 such as higher fiscal spending. She said it was essentially 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.360 going to be inevitable that there'll be high levels of 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:31.800 deficit financing bonds. She also is more dubbish on monetary policy. 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.520 She said it was foolish last year for the Bankpan 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:37.079 to raise rates. So you have a leader who regards 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.600 her south now as the Iron Lady of Japan. 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.640 She's a big fan of Margaret Thatcher in the UK. 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:47.200 As a result, Take she so sane nomics you'll hear 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.400 a lot more about is very similar to arb nomics, 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.560 but she doesn't have a mandate. So the LDP is 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.640 actually struggling in the polls. They had an election last year, 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.559 they had an Upper House election this year, they lost 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:02.560 a lot of seats. Their usual ability to pass policy 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:05.600 based on the leader who's in charge, it's not possible 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.240 without a coalition partner. So they're looking at all these 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.960 smaller parties who are much smaller in size than the 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:15.200 LDP to try and find a sort of cohabitation. But 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:18.440 I think the endgame really is that Takeichi will hope 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.600 that she has a bounce in her polling and she 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.400 will probably look to call an election, probably not this year, 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:25.400 but if the polls bounce for her, it will be 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:27.679 next year and hopefully she gets that majority will be 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:31.040 the aim for that Prime Minister. Sheba, the outgoing prime minister, 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:35.600 tried the same trick and failed. Unfortunately, they lost seats 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:37.760 in that snap election that was called, so it's not 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:42.880 guaranteed that election equals seats gained, but takichbu following the 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:44.000 polls to see if that could happen. 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.080 Let's go to the other side of the world here, Jordan. 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.560 What's going on in France. We see the euro a 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.280 little bit weaker here and what are you hearing from 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.600 your clients about maybe some of the turmoil or just 0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:00.360 unsettled nature of the French politics. 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:04.200 In French, you'd say, alapubel in the trash, goes one 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.000 prime minister and here comes another. 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:07.720 We don't know who the next prime minister will be. 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.920 I think France is now in their fifth primester, fifth 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:12.959 prime minister in just a few years. 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.760 I'm struggling to keep count. We're having a mixture of ideas. 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.199 Being floated around by clients and in the market there 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.240 is obviously the idea that another prime minister will be chosen, 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.800 another technocratic choice. The problem is that the parliament is 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:30.400 very divided, the public is very divided, and it feels 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:32.240 like this is boiling up to the need to have 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:35.480 another election. And that's what's adding to the risk premium 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.520 in the French oats. This parliament doesn't really have a mandate. 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.920 The parties within the parliament can't agree to with each other. 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:43.719 You need the public to decide. 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:47.120 And whilst the frustrating thing is we look at opinion 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.640 polling and the opinion polling suggests that we'll roughly get 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.319 the exact same outcome for the parliament, but that's now. 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:54.400 It might be the case that once this election is triggered, 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.600 the polls change and we do get a sort of 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.760 direction in which way they want to leave. Do they 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.360 want to lean center left or center right. But in 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.720 answer to the question, I think that it's very difficult 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.920 for oats to perform here when you don't hear the 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:07.920 primester is and you don't know if there's going to 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:09.480 be an election, and I think that we'll be down 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:10.040 the line. 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.760 Brilliant joining us, just brilliant. Thank you so much, greatly 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.439 appreciate it, Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:24.560 up after this. 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.920 starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.920 with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.560 on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.160 say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.760 We digress here to a really important interview, and I 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:50.560 would suggest an important national interview if we assume that 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.680 we have fractured politics, as it were some France or Japan. 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:57.560 Hello man, Okay, maybe New York City's are templated for 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:02.520 US joining is someone who is the all within New 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:07.640 York City Courtiously, what joins us now candidate for mayor, always, always, 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:12.200 forever affiliated with the GOP and the Republican candidate. First 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.880 of all, I look at any kind of polling and 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.360 I'm sort of surprised that you're just sub twenty percent. 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:22.400 Have you ever polled this high? Is this a normal polling? 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:24.000 I think at this point. 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.600 I think at this point of the election cycle, yes, 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:31.080 because they're just polling Republicans who are only ten percent 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:35.240 of the electorate. So we're talking independence that they don't poll. 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.880 Sometimes they do, and I do incredibly well with them, 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.800 some moderate Democrats. And then remember I have an independent 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:45.200 line that nobody has factored in, Protect animals, no kill, 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:49.360 shelter's animal abuses in jail, very popular with women who 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:53.040 rescue animals, and naturally they're not heard from in the polls. 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.000 I look at the New York Times. They got fancy 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.680 buttons I can press. I'm not a sophisticated this curtis 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.800 like Paul Sweeney is. But if I x Adams, think 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:04.680 of a tab where I can take him out, ye, 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.760 and I do the math Courtislee what plus Andrew Cuomo. 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:13.000 Guess what. It doesn't equal Zeri Mandami, but it comes 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:16.600 pretty close. What's the tension you see now of the 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:21.320 summation of the governor and you were the upstart candidate 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:21.880 of the left. 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.160 We all know the polls have been wrong every step 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:25.600 of the way, been totally wrong. 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.840 Remember two months go back to Iowa. Oh no, no, 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:29.400 that's just. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.200 Two months into the Democratic primary they were preparing the 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.760 coronation of Andrew cmo as our next mayor. Forty points 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.960 ahead is Johann Mondami. He lost by thirteen points. I 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:42.160 look at my mentor in this rate, George Bataki on 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:47.400 November two of nineteen ninety four against the better Cuomo Mario. 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.880 They had him down by twelve points. He won by 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:54.240 three points. The day before the election was no early 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.920 voting back then. It was either a vote November fourth, 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.720 raps seen the team valor or that's it. Look at 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:02.160 the Trump election over Harris, it was supposed to be 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:04.280 neck and neck. He not only won the popular vote, 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.840 he won the seven battleground states. I don't put any 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.520 any trust in these polls. I know what I feel 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.200 in the streets. I'm in the outer boroughs. You look, 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:17.480 I have ten headquarters. I have signage everywhere. I don't 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.720 see signage at all for Cuomo. So Cuomo's whole vote 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:24.520 is based on fear. Nobody likes this guy. Everybody knows 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:26.640 he was the author of no cash bail, raised the 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.520 age he wants to close, right because he and Zoron 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.640 Mondami when it comes to law and order are two 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.680 peas in a pod. And then he talks about prostitution. 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.840 Zoron is in favor of legalized prostitution, but the governor 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:43.240 at the time, CuMo signed the legislation to enable people 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.440 to go out into the streets and sell their bodies. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:46.960 So I don't see any. 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.080 Differentiation at all between Cuomo and Johan Mondami. 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.680 What is your message New York City residents these last 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:54.520 days of the campaign. 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.640 I am the only candidate GOP candidate that wants to 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:03.280 slash taxes, corporate tax, income tax, especially the property tax, 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:07.320 which a mayor does hold sway over and the Citizens 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.520 Budget Commission said, I'm the only one who's talking about 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:14.600 fiscal constraint one hundred and eighteen dollars billion budget for 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:17.640 the city and there are no cuts. Cuomo and Zoron 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.520 would actually increase it. I would take ten billion dollars 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.120 right out of the Department of Education, which is all 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.840 being spent on the bureaucracy, start cutting the Department of 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:31.880 Buildings and get fiscally reliant on people like Larry Kudler, 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.200 who's my advisor, George Bataki who did that as governor, 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.080 and then Rudy Giuliani, who is the best law and 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.040 or a mayor we've ever had in the City of 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:40.440 New York. 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:42.639 Now those are three titans. 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:44.800 This came up this weekend. I said, I got sleeve 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:46.840 on Monday. They said, you got to ask him his question, 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:50.359 Mayor Sliwa with the city council, can you get along 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.720 with the city council to get things done? 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:54.440 Well? 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:56.760 The benefit of my life is that I spent thirteen 0:17:56.840 --> 0:17:59.600 years raising two boys with Melinda Katz, who was a 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.440 city council person for twelve years, head of land Use. 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:06.360 She's now the Queen's Democratic DA. She taught me how 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:08.480 you get along with city councils. To do that, it's 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:11.840 called discretionary funds. You go into the district, they beat 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:14.800 you up. You meet with the staff because the staff 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:20.080 does all the work. Remember the elected officiacys. Because the 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.240 electeds are always dialing for dollars, shaking people down for 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.680 political contributions, and then you say, I just want one 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.720 vote from you, and I get you your discretionary funds. 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.800 You're looking for a new park, you're looking for a 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:33.679 new playground, you're looking. 0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:36.399 For capitalist politics, a trade. 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.840 I get one vote that I desperately need to show 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:44.040 that there is dialogue even with those who are considered liberal, progressive, 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.760 democratic socialists of America. If you don't do that, no 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:50.280 matter who the mayor is, you're not going to be 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.440 able to get the City Council in a majority way 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:55.280 to back any of your initiatives. 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:56.760 You'll be impotent. 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.920 As Eric Adams says, now, because Adrian Adams, to speak 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.480 of the Council is the real mayor of the City 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:03.000 of New York. 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.960 What's your policy for which is an issue that's very 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.960 closely intertwined homelessness and crime in New York City. What's 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:11.480 your policy? 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.760 Well, homelessness, I deal with emotionally disturbed in the subways 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.400 because I'm the only candidate that actually rides the subways, campaigns, 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:22.080 takes the buses, the express buses that six million New 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.840 Yorkers and others who at one point of the day 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.359 or night are using mass Trandsit I've been dubbed by 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.520 the Staten Island Advance the mayor of mass transportation. We 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.159 need to get the homeless into the shelters, but we 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:35.960 have to make the shelters safe now they're not. It's 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:38.840 like Darwinian survival or the fittest. And we need to 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:42.040 get the emotionally disturbed in state mental hospitals, the very 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:46.800 hospitals that Andrew Como cleared from forty thousand beds down 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.720 to four thousand before he fled fearing impeachment to the hamptage. 0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:54.200 For you, courteously, for all of you across America, good morning. 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.280 He is a Republican candidate in a fractured New York 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:01.159 City mayoral contests. Let me quote exact actly from AI, 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.480 because that's the way we roll Curtis. In the twenty 0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:09.760 twenty one New York City mayoral election, Curtis Leewa received 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.840 twenty one percent of the vote in the Bronx. I 0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:18.840 would suggest President Trump stunned the nation with his minority 0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:22.560 success in the last election. Do you need that to win? 0:20:22.960 --> 0:20:25.480 How are you going to get the minority vote? And 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:27.840 everybody thinks they don't go near you. Come on, you 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:30.520 get twenty one percent in the Bronx. How do you 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:31.160 improve that? 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.440 Everybody knows that Curtis Leewa is a Republican who can 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.320