WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance: US Base Attack; Equity Optimism 0:00:05.040 --> 0:00:08.639 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:12.040 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:15.880 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.880 You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:23.200 Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.800 show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:30.280 our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:34.239 podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.280 always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg. 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.360 Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.320 Let's get started in an incredibly busy we are going 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.400 to be jumping around the theme to a theme, and 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:47.519 we start with what you're focused on. As Lisa Matteo 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.559 mentioned the tech earnings, that tech juggernaut is here writing 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:55.040 a brilliant note for Wills Fargo is Chris Harvey. He 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.480 is their head of equity strategy, really sharp. 0:00:58.200 --> 0:00:59.160 Dense note. 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.120 Is your note top down or bottom up? 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.560 It's bottom up them. But we do obviously we spread 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:07.720 in a little bit of macro, maybe a little bit 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:08.840 more than a little bit. 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.360 I took a toothpaste company and you know it's like 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:13.880 what we learned to Graham Dot in Coddle somebody is 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.119 out this week were the best ten books to read? 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.120 And there's Graham Dot and Coddle, you know, edition forty 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:20.080 two whatever it is. 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:21.919 And it's boring, boring, boring. 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:24.760 And the ebit does like six percent, twelve percent whatever 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:29.200 Microsoft's ebit does three four or five times. Describe the 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:33.680 profit making machinery of these selected Magnificent six. 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:38.160 Yeah. The the thing about the Magnificent six or seven 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.720 or the megacaps is they have fortress balance sheets, they 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:46.039 have annuity like businesses, they have pricing power, and they 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:50.280 have global brands. It's they are. They are the new Lovall. 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.200 They are. The market use them as a new Lovall. 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:55.920 The market views them as the panacea. The market use 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.800 them as the stocks that they go to. It's the 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:00.280 all weather stock this. 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.280 Last week, and mister Harvey just identified it, folks, for 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:05.400 those of you that don't have a fancy degree like 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:06.320 Chris Harvey. 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.840 Paul, annuity like cash flows. 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:10.760 That's what we heard last week, and that's what we 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.080 start with on this Monday with Chris Harvey exactly. 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:15.280 And so Chris, I mean for the folks that maybe 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:18.280 missed that trade last year, What do you tell them 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:21.200 this year? Here? I mean, do I try to jump 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:22.800 on there? Where do I got to look for some 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:26.480 other areas that maybe haven't you know, participated. 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.960 So, Paul, I think if you missed it last year, 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:31.360 obviously you just don't want to chase and Chase and chase. 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.320 I think the best place to put your money if 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.679 you're looking for tech, and we do think growth is 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.760 still a pretty good area to be is in the 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:42.440 communication space. You do get a lot of your media companies, 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:50.480 whether it's Meta, whether it's Google, Disney and things as such. 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:54.040 But these are companies that again they have great balance sheets, 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:56.960 they have the new to like businesses, but the valuations 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:00.760 are very reasonable and what we call them are momentum 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:03.639 garb right growth at a reasonable price. And they are 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.240 working and we think they'll continue to work because the 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.760 underlying fundamentals are still good and valuation, unlike a lot 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:11.600 of the other space, is still pretty attractive. 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:16.000 And I saw your analyser Media Anaal, Steve Cahal at Wells, 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:18.280 Fargar just down Greater Warner Brothers, Discovery. So there's lots 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:21.480 of issues there in a traditional media space. How about 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:23.119 earnings we're kind of just kind of in the thick 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:24.320 of earnings. We're really going to get some of the 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:26.720 big tech earnings here. What if have you seen so 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.000 far this earning cycle? What are you looking for maybe 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:30.520 even this week with some of the big tech names. 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.960 What we've seen initially was a bit of the selling 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.640 news right last week it was a better reaction, but overall, 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.160 they'll seen a little bit of his selling news. What 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.600 we're also seeing, and what you would expect, is just 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:45.880 people are managing guidance. They're not saying, Okay, this is 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:47.120 going to be They're saying it's going to be a 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.320 great year, but they're not not backing it up with 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.520 guidance raises. They're being more conservative, which is what we 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:54.880 would expect going forward and causing a little bit of 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:56.280 chop in the market right now. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.160 You know, I look at what to buy hearing, you know, 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:01.480 I like the idea and the big tech in that. 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.240 What do you listen for in the conference calls today? 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:05.320 Do you need this week? 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.960 I should say, do you need a validation of where 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:11.120 the Fortress balance sheet is, what they've done or is 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.200 it a complete Chris Harvey focus on Q three Q 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:15.360 four This year. 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.320 Tom, We're looking for tons of things in earnings. We 0:04:18.360 --> 0:04:20.760 really just want to see what's going on. What people 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.920 are saying, what's the hot button right now? From financial companies, 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.680 what they're saying is our clients are re risking. Is 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.200 that good, bad, and different? We're not sure just yet. 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:31.720 What are we hearing from some of the consumer companies. 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:34.799 We're hearing, hey, we're more the client or the consumer 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:38.400 is more value oriented. We're also seeing that the difference 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:40.080 between the high end and low end is still there. 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.320 High ends much better than the low end. And then 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:44.200 what we're seeing from companies or what we're looking for 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:47.640 companies is are they managing expectations and how well take it? 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:50.120 Take this is brilliant? Take it over to the tech companies. 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.880 Yeah, to the tech companies, we're still going to We're 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.039 going to get that right. And what we expect to 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.360 see is a management of expectations. You had a great 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.200 year last year. You just don't want to say, hey, 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:03.840 I don't expect these companies to come out and say 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.720 this year, we're raising numbers, raising guidance. What they want 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:08.640 to do is they want to manage expectations. What they 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:10.320 want to tell you it's a good year, but they 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:13.680 want to be able to progressively step over those expectations 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.080 because the one thing we are hearing is there's not 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:19.039 as much visibility as you would think, and people still 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:20.120 concerned about the macro. 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.280 Twenty twenty four, it's an election year. How do you 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:26.120 kind of factor that into your calculus? 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:31.480 Politics are probably as difficult to handicap as we've seen 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.080 in some time. The one thing that we do know, 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.400 and the one thing that we've looked at is the 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.080 most important thing for an investor is who controls the Senate. 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.039 If the GOP controls the Senate, usually we have a 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.560 much better two year run than we do the Democrats 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:47.760 control the Senate. The other thing that we're talking about 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:49.800 a lot, and I'm sure your guests have been talking 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:51.960 about this, this is a big year. People expect this 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:54.080 to be a big year for M and A. If 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:57.320 we do see the GOP not just control the Senate, 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:00.440 but the ascuse me, but the White House, we could 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:02.400 see M and A late in the year really take 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:03.440 another level up. 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:05.760 And you're Denny making a lot of press calling for 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:09.080 the Roaring twenties. Does Wills Fargo see this like you'r 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:12.360 Denny out with a huge bullish call off the Roaring 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.040 twenty twenties. I, Tom, we can go a bunch of 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:16.640 different ways. 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:18.679 We do think you're going to have a little bit more. 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:23.359 We're surprised we haven't seen downside just yet, and so 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:26.080 as a result, we can see the market going one 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:27.880 to two ways. We can see the market just kind 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.120 of muddle along, but we can also see a situation 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:32.480 where we do have irrational exuberance toward the end of 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:34.640 the year with M and A and things of a such. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.640 Too short Chris Harvey, thank you so much. With Wills 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:50.039 Fargo this morning. Joining us now on a matter of 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:54.039 national import Gregory Vllier. Greg I'm not going to mince 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.599 words and strevat us out with a mustard on Bloomberg 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.080 opinion about what. 0:06:58.040 --> 0:06:58.599 To do here. 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:03.080 But Gregory, it has too many echoes of Lebanon and 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:07.839 President Reagan. What will be the response of President Biden 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.160 to the wounded, to the killed and far East Jordan? 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.160 Well, good morning, Tom. He has to respond, he said 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.160 he would respond. So the US is sort of going 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:21.600 to box into a corner. We can't not do anything. 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.680 And I think if it's just an airstrike. That's not enough. 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:28.680 It's got to be a robust I recommend to all 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:32.240 of your listeners. The Wall Street Journal lead editorial this 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.480 morning talking about what we have to do. It's got 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.240 to be a robust response. 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:42.520 Is the Pentagon communicating with a White House? I think 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.800 there's a lot of people listening, both Democrats and Republicans 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:49.360 would say if our valier response is run out of 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:52.800 the White House, that could be problematic. Are the adults 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.240 going to take over the adults at the Pentagon? 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.040 Yeah, I think they will. We heard the top general 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:02.040 over the weekend say, you know, we don't want to 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.200 be disproportionate. We don't want this to spin out of control. 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.880 But it's also a political story, is you know, Tom, 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:13.840 and I think that politically Biden has to do something muscular. 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.840 He can't have one little whimpy attack, and if he does, 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.240 that's going to make his re election prospects even more difficult. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.400 That's kind of where I wanted to go, Greg. I mean, 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:25.960 this is, you know, a political year, an election year 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.680 typically in your experience, how does that factor into the 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:31.200 calculus of these types of decisions. 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:36.439 Well, it politicizes everything, and I think on this there 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.560 has to be something that would convince the American public 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:44.280 that the Iranians have been punished on this and what 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:48.640 we've seen since the seventh of October is little hit here, 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.240 a little hit there, nothing all that big. And what 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:55.520 that does is simply embolden the Iranians. 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.520 And Greg to what extent, I mean, this is all 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.000 a function of what happened on October seventh? Is you 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.199 mentioned here? To what extent do you think the US 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:08.160 should be pressuring Israel to kind of wind this thing down? 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.760 Or is that not on the table at this point? 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:14.080 Oh? I think I think off the record, there's there's 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:18.160 communications between the US and Israel, with the US saying 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:20.959 let's cool it, you know, let's let's have a cease 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:24.040 fire for a while, let's get some of these hostages back. 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:28.520 I think from a pr standpoint, that would be quite 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.560 positive for Israel and the US. 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:33.880 So, I mean, is this something the new normal? I 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.439 guess Greg here in the Middle East? Is what happened 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.480 on October seventh. This is going to portend multiple years 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.719 of just a higher level of unrest. Is this kind 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:45.319 of the new normal for this next? 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:50.160 It could be that that's a distressing conclusion, Paul, But 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.880 I do think that the Hooties have changed a lot. 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:56.680 I'm not sure the Hoodies are totally under the control 0:09:56.720 --> 0:10:00.600 of the Iranians. Yemen is now part of the narrative. 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.280 So you've got some new players here, and I think 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:05.880 because of that, I'll bets her off. 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:08.840 Greg, you mentioned the election here. I just want to 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:10.319 go to the military as well. 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.320 One of the discussions that James Travitas today in an 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.800 out bet in Bloomberg Opinion really lays out a detailed 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:24.440 military response is a third carrier in the region. I'm sorry, Greg, 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:26.199 it's starting on accountable basis. 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:30.199 It's starting to look like a war. Yeah, and it's 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:31.840 like the Philippines in forty two. 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:37.200 You have to say, Tom that this now gets us 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:40.760 into the debate on how much we're spending on defense, 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.000 and a lot of Hawks are saying not enough. We've 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:45.960 got problems in the South China Sea, We've got problems 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.320 in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. So I 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.880 think there's going to be more spending on defense. 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:53.560 Okay, I'll go with that. But the idea here that 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.200 we're gonna have supposedly three carriers in one region draws 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.240 resources away from other areas, and I guess the basic 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:04.240 idea is out there somewhere is an adversary, that there's 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.400 one or two carriers or four carriers, But they don't 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.640 do they. I mean, who are we going after in 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:12.320 terms of military threats here? 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.960 Well, the enemy is illusory and that's a problem. They 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:20.280 don't have uniforms that we can pinpoint. And I would 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.880 add tom one other complicating factor and that's the growing 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:28.360 sense of isolationism in the US in the Republican Party. 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.280 We still don't see any aid for Ukraine. We don't 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:34.880 see any aid for Israel, for Taiwan, and I do 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.199 think this mood of isolationism makes it a lot more 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:39.280 difficult for Biden. 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.280 And that kind of goes to just I haven't really 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.320 seen a lot of reporting on this. I just wonder 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:48.040 where the American populace is in this, because, again, if 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.960 you really think about it, there are a couple hot 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.400 wars out there that we're kind of involved in, and 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:54.880 then there's a lot of other stuff that's out there 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.240 in terms of uneasy, whether it's Taiwan and so on 0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.480 and so forth. Any sense of where the American public 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:00.920 is here, I. 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:05.440 Think the public is conflicted. There's no strong consensus. We 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.719 obviously don't want to see gasoling prices go higher or 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:13.160 anything with the supply chain become a problem, But I 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.160 think the American public also has a view that we 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.760 need to spend money on domestic issues. 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.400 Well, the domestic issues. Let's go to the domestic moment, 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:23.199 Greg Villier, What does Nikki Haley. 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.080 Need to do this week? 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:28.160 Is she moves forward to Nevada the Carolinas in Super Tuesday. 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.240 She has to hammer away. I think if she doesn't 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.920 do well on Super Tuesday on March fifth, she's out. 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.760 But she's got some time, and I think she'll make 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.559 good use of the time she's gotten under Trump's skin. 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:44.240 At least there might be more of an attack by her. 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:47.840 I still think she will not be the nominee, but 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:49.280 she still has momentum. 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:50.400 Greg, thank you for the time. 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:57.000 On short notes is Gregory Villier with AGF today. Dennis 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.800 Gartman joins us now because he wanted to talk about 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:03.960 the parallels here to the sixties and the failure of 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:07.760 the nifty to fifty in the seventies. How nifty to fifty, 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.960 Dennis Gartman, are our Magnificent six. 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:14.680 The fact that we had fifty at the one time 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:16.920 now we only have six is the big qualifier at 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.920 this point, Tom, But it does remind me so much 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.320 of what happened in the nifty to fifty, when you 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.439 had to buy simplicity patterns, when you had to buy Luberzol, 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:27.280 when you had to buy IBM, when you had to 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.720 buy any of the name of the fifty, and it 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:34.120 was to be put away forever. Those names have all 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:37.280 basically disappeared, or a great good number of them have disappeared. 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.200 And from nineteen seventy two to four you had a 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:41.080 great bear market. 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.120 So be careful when when you're comparing the nifty to 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:45.559 fifty to the Magi and seven. 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:48.960 The similarities are awfully alike. 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:53.120 The conceit here of a low tech nifty to fifty 0:13:53.840 --> 0:14:00.719 is a technological certitude of Deck Digital Equipment Corporation. From 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.640 where you sit, Dennis Gartman into the Magnificent six have 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:09.880 features of the collapse of Deck Wayne Labs in control data. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.400 I'm loving this. This is my childhood. I'm bringing out Tennis. 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:15.480 It was our childhood. 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.640 We were both barely into the business at the time 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.280 I joined the business in nineteen seventy two, and remember 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:24.480 the nifty to fifty very clearly, And the similarities to 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.320 me are very distinct and very clear. I'm reminded of 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.640 the Tulla Balmania. You and I were a little too 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:36.520 young to remember the fifteenth century. We have the same 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.400 circumstances that prevail. The fact that you were supposed to 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:43.120 buy the Magnificent six or Magnificent seven and hold them 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:48.000 to forever just seems too similar to too frightening, too 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:52.000 disconcerting to me. Stocks to me seem extremely overbought. But 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:54.440 then again, I thought they were overbought in November, and 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:56.240 I thought they were overbought in December, and I thought 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:57.600 they were overbought in January. 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:59.720 So Dennis, that's kind of where I wanted to go here. 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:01.880 I had that big rip in the marketplace at the 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.320 end of last year I think took even you know, 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.360 some of the biggest bulls by surprise in terms of 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.640 the movement here. And if I think back, I remember 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.400 seeing earnings move up at a commensurate at pace to 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:16.080 the stocks. So where are we in terms of valuation? 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:16.440 Here? 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.600 Is this market overbought from evaluation perspective? In your opinion? 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:22.720 To me, take a look at I think the real 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.040 test is Tesla selling you know what fifty sixty seventy 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.400 times earnings? Ford and General Motors sell it. What five 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.720 and six times earnings? Should Tesla be ten times the 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:35.360 valuation of Ford and General Motors? I think not, But 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.480 thus far I've been wrong, So you have to take 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.880 that with a great, very large grain of salt. But 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:45.200 this does remind me very much. I've thought about it 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:47.920 for a long time, very much of the nifty to fifty, 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:51.600 the same circumstances, of the same psychology, the same type 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:55.720 of phenomenon, and it bothers me greatly, no question about that. 0:15:55.840 --> 0:16:00.480 Paul Thursday, Friday, Dan Eyes, who's been constructively optimistic and 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:02.720 must Tesla really. 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.680 Made an adjustment and attitude. 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.560 I'm not going to say capitulated, Maybe that's too strong, 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.000 but he made a massive adjustment and tone of that conference. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:15.080 He absolutely did. It was noticeable here. So, Dennis, where 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:17.240 where do investors go from here? I mean, did they 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.680 sit in their two year churches at four point three percent? 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:21.600 Or do they try to come to the stock market 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:23.880 and look for some values. What are you kind of 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:25.200 thinking at this point? 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.120 Well, I'm seventy three, so I've got so much. 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:30.960 Eighty five percent of what I on is is in 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.360 two and three year Treasury notes. At this point, I 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.840 own a little bit of gold, but I'm seventy three. 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:37.800 If I were fifty, I'd be looking for value. 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:42.200 I'd be avoiding the magnificent six and seven, and I'd 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.600 be looking for value out there. I'd be looking atris, 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:48.880 I'd be looking at utilities, I'd be looking at regional banks. 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:50.800 I'd be looking at the things that are unloved at 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.360 this point, and they will be loved again sometime in 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.920 the future. So if I were fifty, i'd be looking 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.160 for value. Seventy three, I'm looking for safety. 0:16:58.320 --> 0:16:59.640 Good morning, Lincoln, Nebraska. 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:01.840 Thank you so much for emailing in, they said, Tom 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.240 pick One talked to gartment about gold or red weed. 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:08.000 Redwat doesn't cut at Dennis. Let's talk gold right now. 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.040 If I get the Bank of Japan to capitulate and 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:15.439 I get masses strong, damien sas our Japanese yen do 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:17.359 I want to be in gold in yen? 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:20.680 You want to be gold in dollar terms. You want 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:22.240 to be gold in euro terms. You want to be 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:25.040 golden in yen terms. You want to be golden Swiss. Well, 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.760 i'd avoid Swiss Franks at this point, but I think 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:31.520 you need to be involved in gold in US dollars 0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:33.359 and non US dollars. I think this is going to 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.320 be a move quietly to the upside in the gold market. 0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.040 It's been a bull market for several years. It's been 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:42.960 completely unloved. Nobody's talking about it, and I think that's 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:44.240 that's consequential. 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:47.119 Dennis, I'm going mental. I mean, even Sweeney's criticized me. 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.360 He's vicious, folks, I have camera. Paul is tough, and Dennis, 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.600 I'm going to cut to the chase. Gold has an 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:58.440 underlying eleven percent industrial use, forty some percent jewelry use. 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.000 Do you know that gold is you used the jewelry? 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:02.560 That's what I didn't know that. 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.600 Good morning, Elsa Peretti, thank you so much for listening 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:09.600 this morning. Dennis Gartman, gold is an underlying use. Does 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:11.440 bitdog have an underlying use? 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:12.080 No? 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:16.280 Bitcoin has no underlying use other than for rank speculation, 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:18.960 and that's all. It is nothing more than that. And 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:22.480 I would avoid it with at all costs, and especially 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:25.200 there might be some reason to own bitcoin because there's 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.399 a a finite amount of it to be created, but 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.560 ethereum and the rest of them can be created ad infinitum. 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.399 So if you have to buy a cryptocurrency, and I 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.080 think you shouldn't under any circumstance, but you have no 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.600 choice if you just can't avoid the the the rush 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.800 to own it. But well, it doesn't have any value, No, 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:44.760 doesn't have any reason. 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:46.959 It's like a duke Paul. 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:50.600 He goes up to Akron, Ohio where Martine's costs five dollars, 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.520 and Gartman's sitting there on the trust the board, you know, 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.119 the trustees board with millions and millions of dollars, and 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.240 there's some student representative with three ear rings in there. 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:04.040 There're no saying their ears whatever, saying mister Gartman, please, 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.680 we've got to have some you know, four or five 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:08.280 interest in bitcoin. 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:08.600 Yep. 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:11.640 Can you imagine a coming off the desk from Gartman. 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:13.119 Yeah, I don't think that's good. 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:14.880 I would reach across the desk and hit him. 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:19.320 There you go. Uh, Dennis, we got geopolitics, unfortunately, front 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:21.800 and center once again for investors to have to deal 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.800 with in the Middle East and of course in Eastern Europe. 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:26.960 As you look at that kind of risk out there, 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.800 how do you think investors should you know, kind of 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:32.480 factor in geopolitical rest which seems to be a little 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:33.600 bit hot right now. 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.000 It's a reason to be less involved in the stock market, 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.159 and the reason to be more quietly involved in the 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.399 gold market, and a reason to be more quietly involved 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.879 or more dramatically involved in the US treasury market. At 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:49.000