Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 1: Let's get started in an incredibly busy we are going
Speaker 1: to be jumping around the theme to a theme, and
Speaker 1: we start with what you're focused on. As Lisa Matteo
Speaker 1: mentioned the tech earnings, that tech juggernaut is here writing
Speaker 1: a brilliant note for Wills Fargo is Chris Harvey. He
Speaker 1: is their head of equity strategy, really sharp.
Speaker 2: Dense note.
Speaker 1: Is your note top down or bottom up?
Speaker 3: It's bottom up them. But we do obviously we spread
Speaker 3: in a little bit of macro, maybe a little bit
Speaker 3: more than a little bit.
Speaker 1: I took a toothpaste company and you know it's like
Speaker 1: what we learned to Graham Dot in Coddle somebody is
Speaker 1: out this week were the best ten books to read?
Speaker 1: And there's Graham Dot and Coddle, you know, edition forty
Speaker 1: two whatever it is.
Speaker 4: And it's boring, boring, boring.
Speaker 1: And the ebit does like six percent, twelve percent whatever
Speaker 1: Microsoft's ebit does three four or five times. Describe the
Speaker 1: profit making machinery of these selected Magnificent six.
Speaker 3: Yeah. The the thing about the Magnificent six or seven
Speaker 3: or the megacaps is they have fortress balance sheets, they
Speaker 3: have annuity like businesses, they have pricing power, and they
Speaker 3: have global brands. It's they are. They are the new Lovall.
Speaker 3: They are. The market use them as a new Lovall.
Speaker 3: The market views them as the panacea. The market use
Speaker 3: them as the stocks that they go to. It's the
Speaker 3: all weather stock this.
Speaker 1: Last week, and mister Harvey just identified it, folks, for
Speaker 1: those of you that don't have a fancy degree like
Speaker 1: Chris Harvey.
Speaker 4: Paul, annuity like cash flows.
Speaker 1: That's what we heard last week, and that's what we
Speaker 1: start with on this Monday with Chris Harvey exactly.
Speaker 5: And so Chris, I mean for the folks that maybe
Speaker 5: missed that trade last year, What do you tell them
Speaker 5: this year? Here? I mean, do I try to jump
Speaker 5: on there? Where do I got to look for some
Speaker 5: other areas that maybe haven't you know, participated.
Speaker 3: So, Paul, I think if you missed it last year,
Speaker 3: obviously you just don't want to chase and Chase and chase.
Speaker 3: I think the best place to put your money if
Speaker 3: you're looking for tech, and we do think growth is
Speaker 3: still a pretty good area to be is in the
Speaker 3: communication space. You do get a lot of your media companies,
Speaker 3: whether it's Meta, whether it's Google, Disney and things as such.
Speaker 3: But these are companies that again they have great balance sheets,
Speaker 3: they have the new to like businesses, but the valuations
Speaker 3: are very reasonable and what we call them are momentum
Speaker 3: garb right growth at a reasonable price. And they are
Speaker 3: working and we think they'll continue to work because the
Speaker 3: underlying fundamentals are still good and valuation, unlike a lot
Speaker 3: of the other space, is still pretty attractive.
Speaker 5: And I saw your analyser Media Anaal, Steve Cahal at Wells,
Speaker 5: Fargar just down Greater Warner Brothers, Discovery. So there's lots
Speaker 5: of issues there in a traditional media space. How about
Speaker 5: earnings we're kind of just kind of in the thick
Speaker 5: of earnings. We're really going to get some of the
Speaker 5: big tech earnings here. What if have you seen so
Speaker 5: far this earning cycle? What are you looking for maybe
Speaker 5: even this week with some of the big tech names.
Speaker 3: What we've seen initially was a bit of the selling
Speaker 3: news right last week it was a better reaction, but overall,
Speaker 3: they'll seen a little bit of his selling news. What
Speaker 3: we're also seeing, and what you would expect, is just
Speaker 3: people are managing guidance. They're not saying, Okay, this is
Speaker 3: going to be They're saying it's going to be a
Speaker 3: great year, but they're not not backing it up with
Speaker 3: guidance raises. They're being more conservative, which is what we
Speaker 3: would expect going forward and causing a little bit of
Speaker 3: chop in the market right now.
Speaker 1: You know, I look at what to buy hearing, you know,
Speaker 1: I like the idea and the big tech in that.
Speaker 1: What do you listen for in the conference calls today?
Speaker 2: Do you need this week?
Speaker 1: I should say, do you need a validation of where
Speaker 1: the Fortress balance sheet is, what they've done or is
Speaker 1: it a complete Chris Harvey focus on Q three Q
Speaker 1: four This year.
Speaker 3: Tom, We're looking for tons of things in earnings. We
Speaker 3: really just want to see what's going on. What people
Speaker 3: are saying, what's the hot button right now? From financial companies,
Speaker 3: what they're saying is our clients are re risking. Is
Speaker 3: that good, bad, and different? We're not sure just yet.
Speaker 3: What are we hearing from some of the consumer companies.
Speaker 3: We're hearing, hey, we're more the client or the consumer
Speaker 3: is more value oriented. We're also seeing that the difference
Speaker 3: between the high end and low end is still there.
Speaker 3: High ends much better than the low end. And then
Speaker 3: what we're seeing from companies or what we're looking for
Speaker 3: companies is are they managing expectations and how well take it?
Speaker 2: Take this is brilliant? Take it over to the tech companies.
Speaker 3: Yeah, to the tech companies, we're still going to We're
Speaker 3: going to get that right. And what we expect to
Speaker 3: see is a management of expectations. You had a great
Speaker 3: year last year. You just don't want to say, hey,
Speaker 3: I don't expect these companies to come out and say
Speaker 3: this year, we're raising numbers, raising guidance. What they want
Speaker 3: to do is they want to manage expectations. What they
Speaker 3: want to tell you it's a good year, but they
Speaker 3: want to be able to progressively step over those expectations
Speaker 3: because the one thing we are hearing is there's not
Speaker 3: as much visibility as you would think, and people still
Speaker 3: concerned about the macro.
Speaker 5: Twenty twenty four, it's an election year. How do you
Speaker 5: kind of factor that into your calculus?
Speaker 3: Politics are probably as difficult to handicap as we've seen
Speaker 3: in some time. The one thing that we do know,
Speaker 3: and the one thing that we've looked at is the
Speaker 3: most important thing for an investor is who controls the Senate.
Speaker 3: If the GOP controls the Senate, usually we have a
Speaker 3: much better two year run than we do the Democrats
Speaker 3: control the Senate. The other thing that we're talking about
Speaker 3: a lot, and I'm sure your guests have been talking
Speaker 3: about this, this is a big year. People expect this
Speaker 3: to be a big year for M and A. If
Speaker 3: we do see the GOP not just control the Senate,
Speaker 3: but the ascuse me, but the White House, we could
Speaker 3: see M and A late in the year really take
Speaker 3: another level up.
Speaker 1: And you're Denny making a lot of press calling for
Speaker 1: the Roaring twenties. Does Wills Fargo see this like you'r
Speaker 1: Denny out with a huge bullish call off the Roaring
Speaker 1: twenty twenties. I, Tom, we can go a bunch of
Speaker 1: different ways.
Speaker 3: We do think you're going to have a little bit more.
Speaker 3: We're surprised we haven't seen downside just yet, and so
Speaker 3: as a result, we can see the market going one
Speaker 3: to two ways. We can see the market just kind
Speaker 3: of muddle along, but we can also see a situation
Speaker 3: where we do have irrational exuberance toward the end of
Speaker 3: the year with M and A and things of a such.
Speaker 1: Too short Chris Harvey, thank you so much. With Wills
Speaker 1: Fargo this morning. Joining us now on a matter of
Speaker 1: national import Gregory Vllier. Greg I'm not going to mince
Speaker 1: words and strevat us out with a mustard on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: opinion about what.
Speaker 2: To do here.
Speaker 1: But Gregory, it has too many echoes of Lebanon and
Speaker 1: President Reagan. What will be the response of President Biden
Speaker 1: to the wounded, to the killed and far East Jordan?
Speaker 6: Well, good morning, Tom. He has to respond, he said
Speaker 6: he would respond. So the US is sort of going
Speaker 6: to box into a corner. We can't not do anything.
Speaker 6: And I think if it's just an airstrike. That's not enough.
Speaker 6: It's got to be a robust I recommend to all
Speaker 6: of your listeners. The Wall Street Journal lead editorial this
Speaker 6: morning talking about what we have to do. It's got
Speaker 6: to be a robust response.
Speaker 1: Is the Pentagon communicating with a White House? I think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people listening, both Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: would say if our valier response is run out of
Speaker 1: the White House, that could be problematic. Are the adults
Speaker 1: going to take over the adults at the Pentagon?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they will. We heard the top general
Speaker 6: over the weekend say, you know, we don't want to
Speaker 6: be disproportionate. We don't want this to spin out of control.
Speaker 6: But it's also a political story, is you know, Tom,
Speaker 6: and I think that politically Biden has to do something muscular.
Speaker 6: He can't have one little whimpy attack, and if he does,
Speaker 6: that's going to make his re election prospects even more difficult.
Speaker 5: That's kind of where I wanted to go, Greg. I mean,
Speaker 5: this is, you know, a political year, an election year
Speaker 5: typically in your experience, how does that factor into the
Speaker 5: calculus of these types of decisions.
Speaker 6: Well, it politicizes everything, and I think on this there
Speaker 6: has to be something that would convince the American public
Speaker 6: that the Iranians have been punished on this and what
Speaker 6: we've seen since the seventh of October is little hit here,
Speaker 6: a little hit there, nothing all that big. And what
Speaker 6: that does is simply embolden the Iranians.
Speaker 5: And Greg to what extent, I mean, this is all
Speaker 5: a function of what happened on October seventh? Is you
Speaker 5: mentioned here? To what extent do you think the US
Speaker 5: should be pressuring Israel to kind of wind this thing down?
Speaker 5: Or is that not on the table at this point?
Speaker 6: Oh? I think I think off the record, there's there's
Speaker 6: communications between the US and Israel, with the US saying
Speaker 6: let's cool it, you know, let's let's have a cease
Speaker 6: fire for a while, let's get some of these hostages back.
Speaker 6: I think from a pr standpoint, that would be quite
Speaker 6: positive for Israel and the US.
Speaker 5: So, I mean, is this something the new normal? I
Speaker 5: guess Greg here in the Middle East? Is what happened
Speaker 5: on October seventh. This is going to portend multiple years
Speaker 5: of just a higher level of unrest. Is this kind
Speaker 5: of the new normal for this next?
Speaker 6: It could be that that's a distressing conclusion, Paul, But
Speaker 6: I do think that the Hooties have changed a lot.
Speaker 6: I'm not sure the Hoodies are totally under the control
Speaker 6: of the Iranians. Yemen is now part of the narrative.
Speaker 6: So you've got some new players here, and I think
Speaker 6: because of that, I'll bets her off.
Speaker 2: Greg, you mentioned the election here. I just want to
Speaker 2: go to the military as well.
Speaker 1: One of the discussions that James Travitas today in an
Speaker 1: out bet in Bloomberg Opinion really lays out a detailed
Speaker 1: military response is a third carrier in the region. I'm sorry, Greg,
Speaker 1: it's starting on accountable basis.
Speaker 2: It's starting to look like a war. Yeah, and it's
Speaker 2: like the Philippines in forty two.
Speaker 6: You have to say, Tom that this now gets us
Speaker 6: into the debate on how much we're spending on defense,
Speaker 6: and a lot of Hawks are saying not enough. We've
Speaker 6: got problems in the South China Sea, We've got problems
Speaker 6: in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. So I
Speaker 6: think there's going to be more spending on defense.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll go with that. But the idea here that
Speaker 1: we're gonna have supposedly three carriers in one region draws
Speaker 1: resources away from other areas, and I guess the basic
Speaker 1: idea is out there somewhere is an adversary, that there's
Speaker 1: one or two carriers or four carriers, But they don't
Speaker 1: do they. I mean, who are we going after in
Speaker 1: terms of military threats here?
Speaker 6: Well, the enemy is illusory and that's a problem. They
Speaker 6: don't have uniforms that we can pinpoint. And I would
Speaker 6: add tom one other complicating factor and that's the growing
Speaker 6: sense of isolationism in the US in the Republican Party.
Speaker 6: We still don't see any aid for Ukraine. We don't
Speaker 6: see any aid for Israel, for Taiwan, and I do
Speaker 6: think this mood of isolationism makes it a lot more
Speaker 6: difficult for Biden.
Speaker 5: And that kind of goes to just I haven't really
Speaker 5: seen a lot of reporting on this. I just wonder
Speaker 5: where the American populace is in this, because, again, if
Speaker 5: you really think about it, there are a couple hot
Speaker 5: wars out there that we're kind of involved in, and
Speaker 5: then there's a lot of other stuff that's out there
Speaker 5: in terms of uneasy, whether it's Taiwan and so on
Speaker 5: and so forth. Any sense of where the American public
Speaker 5: is here, I.
Speaker 6: Think the public is conflicted. There's no strong consensus. We
Speaker 6: obviously don't want to see gasoling prices go higher or
Speaker 6: anything with the supply chain become a problem, But I
Speaker 6: think the American public also has a view that we
Speaker 6: need to spend money on domestic issues.
Speaker 1: Well, the domestic issues. Let's go to the domestic moment,
Speaker 1: Greg Villier, What does Nikki Haley.
Speaker 2: Need to do this week?
Speaker 1: Is she moves forward to Nevada the Carolinas in Super Tuesday.
Speaker 6: She has to hammer away. I think if she doesn't
Speaker 6: do well on Super Tuesday on March fifth, she's out.
Speaker 6: But she's got some time, and I think she'll make
Speaker 6: good use of the time she's gotten under Trump's skin.
Speaker 6: At least there might be more of an attack by her.
Speaker 6: I still think she will not be the nominee, but
Speaker 6: she still has momentum.
Speaker 2: Greg, thank you for the time.
Speaker 1: On short notes is Gregory Villier with AGF today. Dennis
Speaker 1: Gartman joins us now because he wanted to talk about
Speaker 1: the parallels here to the sixties and the failure of
Speaker 1: the nifty to fifty in the seventies. How nifty to fifty,
Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman, are our Magnificent six.
Speaker 7: The fact that we had fifty at the one time
Speaker 7: now we only have six is the big qualifier at
Speaker 7: this point, Tom, But it does remind me so much
Speaker 7: of what happened in the nifty to fifty, when you
Speaker 7: had to buy simplicity patterns, when you had to buy Luberzol,
Speaker 7: when you had to buy IBM, when you had to
Speaker 7: buy any of the name of the fifty, and it
Speaker 7: was to be put away forever. Those names have all
Speaker 7: basically disappeared, or a great good number of them have disappeared.
Speaker 4: And from nineteen seventy two to four you had a
Speaker 4: great bear market.
Speaker 7: So be careful when when you're comparing the nifty to
Speaker 7: fifty to the Magi and seven.
Speaker 4: The similarities are awfully alike.
Speaker 1: The conceit here of a low tech nifty to fifty
Speaker 1: is a technological certitude of Deck Digital Equipment Corporation. From
Speaker 1: where you sit, Dennis Gartman into the Magnificent six have
Speaker 1: features of the collapse of Deck Wayne Labs in control data.
Speaker 2: I'm loving this. This is my childhood. I'm bringing out Tennis.
Speaker 4: It was our childhood.
Speaker 7: We were both barely into the business at the time
Speaker 7: I joined the business in nineteen seventy two, and remember
Speaker 7: the nifty to fifty very clearly, And the similarities to
Speaker 7: me are very distinct and very clear. I'm reminded of
Speaker 7: the Tulla Balmania. You and I were a little too
Speaker 7: young to remember the fifteenth century. We have the same
Speaker 7: circumstances that prevail. The fact that you were supposed to
Speaker 7: buy the Magnificent six or Magnificent seven and hold them
Speaker 7: to forever just seems too similar to too frightening, too
Speaker 7: disconcerting to me. Stocks to me seem extremely overbought. But
Speaker 7: then again, I thought they were overbought in November, and
Speaker 7: I thought they were overbought in December, and I thought
Speaker 7: they were overbought in January.
Speaker 5: So Dennis, that's kind of where I wanted to go here.
Speaker 5: I had that big rip in the marketplace at the
Speaker 5: end of last year I think took even you know,
Speaker 5: some of the biggest bulls by surprise in terms of
Speaker 5: the movement here. And if I think back, I remember
Speaker 5: seeing earnings move up at a commensurate at pace to
Speaker 5: the stocks. So where are we in terms of valuation?
Speaker 4: Here?
Speaker 5: Is this market overbought from evaluation perspective? In your opinion?
Speaker 7: To me, take a look at I think the real
Speaker 7: test is Tesla selling you know what fifty sixty seventy
Speaker 7: times earnings? Ford and General Motors sell it. What five
Speaker 7: and six times earnings? Should Tesla be ten times the
Speaker 7: valuation of Ford and General Motors? I think not, But
Speaker 7: thus far I've been wrong, So you have to take
Speaker 7: that with a great, very large grain of salt. But
Speaker 7: this does remind me very much. I've thought about it
Speaker 7: for a long time, very much of the nifty to fifty,
Speaker 7: the same circumstances, of the same psychology, the same type
Speaker 7: of phenomenon, and it bothers me greatly, no question about that.
Speaker 1: Paul Thursday, Friday, Dan Eyes, who's been constructively optimistic and
Speaker 1: must Tesla really.
Speaker 2: Made an adjustment and attitude.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say capitulated, Maybe that's too strong,
Speaker 1: but he made a massive adjustment and tone of that conference.
Speaker 5: He absolutely did. It was noticeable here. So, Dennis, where
Speaker 5: where do investors go from here? I mean, did they
Speaker 5: sit in their two year churches at four point three percent?
Speaker 5: Or do they try to come to the stock market
Speaker 5: and look for some values. What are you kind of
Speaker 5: thinking at this point?
Speaker 4: Well, I'm seventy three, so I've got so much.
Speaker 7: Eighty five percent of what I on is is in
Speaker 7: two and three year Treasury notes. At this point, I
Speaker 7: own a little bit of gold, but I'm seventy three.
Speaker 4: If I were fifty, I'd be looking for value.
Speaker 7: I'd be avoiding the magnificent six and seven, and I'd
Speaker 7: be looking for value out there. I'd be looking atris,
Speaker 7: I'd be looking at utilities, I'd be looking at regional banks.
Speaker 7: I'd be looking at the things that are unloved at
Speaker 7: this point, and they will be loved again sometime in
Speaker 7: the future. So if I were fifty, i'd be looking
Speaker 7: for value. Seventy three, I'm looking for safety.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Lincoln, Nebraska.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for emailing in, they said, Tom
Speaker 1: pick One talked to gartment about gold or red weed.
Speaker 1: Redwat doesn't cut at Dennis. Let's talk gold right now.
Speaker 1: If I get the Bank of Japan to capitulate and
Speaker 1: I get masses strong, damien sas our Japanese yen do
Speaker 1: I want to be in gold in yen?
Speaker 7: You want to be gold in dollar terms. You want
Speaker 7: to be gold in euro terms. You want to be
Speaker 7: golden in yen terms. You want to be golden Swiss. Well,
Speaker 7: i'd avoid Swiss Franks at this point, but I think
Speaker 7: you need to be involved in gold in US dollars
Speaker 7: and non US dollars. I think this is going to
Speaker 7: be a move quietly to the upside in the gold market.
Speaker 7: It's been a bull market for several years. It's been
Speaker 7: completely unloved. Nobody's talking about it, and I think that's
Speaker 7: that's consequential.
Speaker 1: Dennis, I'm going mental. I mean, even Sweeney's criticized me.
Speaker 1: He's vicious, folks, I have camera. Paul is tough, and Dennis,
Speaker 1: I'm going to cut to the chase. Gold has an
Speaker 1: underlying eleven percent industrial use, forty some percent jewelry use.
Speaker 1: Do you know that gold is you used the jewelry?
Speaker 2: That's what I didn't know that.
Speaker 1: Good morning, Elsa Peretti, thank you so much for listening
Speaker 1: this morning. Dennis Gartman, gold is an underlying use. Does
Speaker 1: bitdog have an underlying use?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 7: Bitcoin has no underlying use other than for rank speculation,
Speaker 7: and that's all. It is nothing more than that. And
Speaker 7: I would avoid it with at all costs, and especially
Speaker 7: there might be some reason to own bitcoin because there's
Speaker 7: a a finite amount of it to be created, but
Speaker 7: ethereum and the rest of them can be created ad infinitum.
Speaker 7: So if you have to buy a cryptocurrency, and I
Speaker 7: think you shouldn't under any circumstance, but you have no
Speaker 7: choice if you just can't avoid the the the rush
Speaker 7: to own it. But well, it doesn't have any value, No,
Speaker 7: doesn't have any reason.
Speaker 2: It's like a duke Paul.
Speaker 1: He goes up to Akron, Ohio where Martine's costs five dollars,
Speaker 1: and Gartman's sitting there on the trust the board, you know,
Speaker 1: the trustees board with millions and millions of dollars, and
Speaker 1: there's some student representative with three ear rings in there.
Speaker 1: There're no saying their ears whatever, saying mister Gartman, please,
Speaker 1: we've got to have some you know, four or five
Speaker 1: interest in bitcoin.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Can you imagine a coming off the desk from Gartman.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think that's good.
Speaker 4: I would reach across the desk and hit him.
Speaker 5: There you go. Uh, Dennis, we got geopolitics, unfortunately, front
Speaker 5: and center once again for investors to have to deal
Speaker 5: with in the Middle East and of course in Eastern Europe.
Speaker 5: As you look at that kind of risk out there,
Speaker 5: how do you think investors should you know, kind of
Speaker 5: factor in geopolitical rest which seems to be a little
Speaker 5: bit hot right now.
Speaker 7: It's a reason to be less involved in the stock market,
Speaker 7: and the reason to be more quietly involved in the
Speaker 7: gold market, and a reason to be more quietly involved
Speaker 7: or more dramatically involved in the US treasury market. At
Speaker 7: this point, I think geopolitics is back on the on
Speaker 7: the front. It's moved from the right and left wings
Speaker 7: of the stage to the center stage, and I think
Speaker 7: it's going to become far more important over of course
Speaker 7: the next six months. Watch what Hasbola does in the
Speaker 7: level on Remember Hesbola and Hamas are are themselves enemies
Speaker 7: one with the other. They may hate us, but they
Speaker 7: hate each other too, And so you're putting a lot
Speaker 7: of people in a very small geographic area, and it's
Speaker 7: going to become more problematic, not less so.
Speaker 2: Dennis, thanks for the brief.
Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman there with his optimism on the American economic experiment.
Speaker 2: She had like four lists.
Speaker 1: You know, there's so much now slow going on this morning,
Speaker 1: Lisa said, time I got four lists, Would you look
Speaker 1: at him? I said, no, I'm having my first tang
Speaker 1: of the morning. I said, I can't do that, so
Speaker 1: she just picked one out.
Speaker 2: What do you got tell me?
Speaker 8: We're lions free, We're a lions free. Has been battered enough.
Speaker 8: I'll leave them be. But this is something actually, you
Speaker 8: guys have been talking a lot about the whole streaming
Speaker 8: wars Amazon. Today is the day. This is a fight
Speaker 8: in the Mateo household. Today they start adding those ads
Speaker 8: to their service for Prime. So if you don't want
Speaker 8: to see the ads, you have to pay three.
Speaker 5: Dollars more on the Prime video.
Speaker 8: On the Prime Video.
Speaker 5: Yes, so they've always had ads on Amazon dot Com.
Speaker 5: That's been a huge business for them. Fifty billion dollars
Speaker 5: now and you watch Amazon.
Speaker 8: Prime, Yes, Amazon Prime, thank you, Paul.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 8: So they're estimating this is Bank of America. They're saying
Speaker 8: that the new business will generate five billion in annual
Speaker 8: revenue for Amazon from that three billion ad sales additional
Speaker 8: one point eight billion from Amazon Prime subscribers. So they're
Speaker 8: hoping it can push viewers to the shop from their TVs.
Speaker 8: It's this whole thing where you can kind of so
Speaker 8: I'm going to go to a movie, I'm.
Speaker 1: Going to go to four hours long Academy word Leonardo DiCaprio,
Speaker 1: Indians killers of the whatever, and they want me to buy,
Speaker 1: you know, toothpaste off of that.
Speaker 2: I'm serious.
Speaker 5: Absolutely, can you.
Speaker 8: See the ad for toothpased Maybe you will.
Speaker 1: Adam Spencer Sofa writing this up for bloom Today, big
Speaker 1: long article. Ad push aims to turn TVs into shopping cards.
Speaker 1: I love what they did over digit I said Joseph
Speaker 1: about how they're going to sell ads. Do we know
Speaker 1: what we're gonna see today?
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 8: They said, it's not going to be as many ads
Speaker 8: as say. You know, when you were watching regular TV
Speaker 8: and you saw the millions of commercials would come up.
Speaker 8: You know, it's not going to be as many, but
Speaker 8: you're still going to see those commercials. They're just hoping
Speaker 8: it's going to get you.
Speaker 5: To And the reason they're doing this is because if
Speaker 5: you look at Magnet Global, which is probably the independent
Speaker 5: source for all advertising, Magnet Global saying by twenty twenty
Speaker 5: seven more advertising will be online video versus television, first
Speaker 5: time ever.
Speaker 2: But help me here, how much is it?
Speaker 1: How much is it to get rid of this problem?
Speaker 8: It's gonna gosha three dollars more a month.
Speaker 1: Okay, so wait a minute to get thirty six dollars.
Speaker 1: That's a that's not even a price of Ken Fellow.
Speaker 1: You will help me here. That's not even a price
Speaker 1: of a martini at the Carlisle, is it?
Speaker 8: I mean?
Speaker 1: I mean I can't even get out of there with
Speaker 1: a negroaning for forty two large for thirty six bucks
Speaker 1: a year, this problem goes away.
Speaker 8: Well, here's the thing that gets me is that netl
Speaker 8: took a different approach, right Paul. So Netflix, they're laying
Speaker 8: subscribers opt into that lower cost. You know, you can
Speaker 8: pay less if you want to see the ads. But
Speaker 8: Amazon's not doing that. They're just saying you're gonna pay
Speaker 8: more if you don't want to see.
Speaker 5: The com This is the future advertising video on demand.
Speaker 5: Think about it that way. There you go.
Speaker 8: Next, all right, Next, we're talking about New York City
Speaker 8: restaurant owners because there's a bill being pushed to abolish
Speaker 8: the tip credit. Okay, and they want to have the
Speaker 8: weight staff in the city, Long Island, Westchester pace be
Speaker 8: it paid seventeen dollars an hour by twenty twenty six.
Speaker 8: So there's a survey ninety five percent of restaurant tours
Speaker 8: they oppose that bill. Okay, they think that tip credit
Speaker 8: that allows owners to pay the weight staff who own
Speaker 8: tips less than minimum wage. They're saying it could lead
Speaker 8: to higher menu prices if it's gone. They said it
Speaker 8: could lead to layoffs, it could even shut them down.
Speaker 8: So this report is out there, it's saying it's going
Speaker 8: to cost them about twelve thousand more a year to
Speaker 8: employ a full time tipped employee if this bill goes through.
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is potentially upsetting the entire ECO system of dining.
Speaker 5: You know, I don't know why when you get Europeans
Speaker 5: to come to the US there, like, what's this tipping
Speaker 5: thing you guys?
Speaker 6: Do? You know?
Speaker 5: So I don't know, but whatever it is, that's how
Speaker 5: we do it in this country. And I would not
Speaker 5: want to try to mess with that situation here. But
Speaker 5: by the same token, I'm tipping everywhere these days. Everywhere
Speaker 5: they turn the screen around to you and say what
Speaker 5: do you want to tip?
Speaker 4: Are you tipping.
Speaker 1: Or whatever?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just.
Speaker 4: I'm not you.
Speaker 8: Feel the pressure because there's the screen.
Speaker 5: I know it's but this story here again, it's in
Speaker 5: the New York Post about you know, if you can
Speaker 5: make you pay your weight staff a minimum wage as
Speaker 5: opposed to what you do now, which is blow minimum wage.
Speaker 5: But but they get the tips net net. I don't
Speaker 5: know how it all works out, but it just seems
Speaker 5: like you're can be shifting the cost back on to
Speaker 5: the restaurant owner, and that could be an issue.
Speaker 2: So last one, what do you go?
Speaker 8: Empty nesters there putting big bucks? They want to pay
Speaker 8: coaches to help them through their emotional plan. Okay, so
Speaker 8: this is from the Wall Street Journal there.
Speaker 1: I mean, if I get rid of afterthought, I'm an
Speaker 1: empty nester and that's a trauma.
Speaker 8: That's it's a trauma. Two hundred and fifty dollars an
Speaker 8: hour coaches are paying.
Speaker 1: I was fifty the dishwasher.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but you have continued, all right, I've got a
Speaker 5: pair of twenty seven year olds and in their lifetime
Speaker 5: the Great financial crisis that impacted them just in terms
Speaker 5: of the household and how, and then and then the pandemic. So,
Speaker 5: I mean, they've had to endure some stuff that I'm
Speaker 5: not sure my generation did. It feels like maybe my parents'
Speaker 5: generation with the depression, in a war and things that.
Speaker 5: I mean, they've had some stuff that I haven't had
Speaker 5: to deal with. So I don't know, but I'm just
Speaker 5: you know, it's definitely, you know it is.
Speaker 8: But they the parents are the ones who are going
Speaker 8: through the trauma, and the parents need the coaching and
Speaker 8: the and the help from the professionals. It's become an
Speaker 8: actual business. I mean, there are empty nests, coaches. It
Speaker 8: is just training, certifications. This is a whole big business
Speaker 8: and TikTok Street book everywhere you've.
Speaker 1: Seen Michael Barr more than we have this morning. You're
Speaker 1: back in our sequestered surveillance studios, which you're off from
Speaker 1: our beautiful class studio.
Speaker 8: Here is he okay, He's okay. He's taking a break
Speaker 8: right now. I'm gonna go pat his forehead a little bit.
Speaker 2: Make sure did you talk to missus Barr? Is the
Speaker 2: marriage in one piece?
Speaker 8: She's feeling great?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I think what she won. I mean, you know, he
Speaker 1: mortgaged the house. I know it's painful to say the least.
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