1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 5 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the 6 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and 9 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg. 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: Let's get started in an incredibly busy we are going 12 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: to be jumping around the theme to a theme, and 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: we start with what you're focused on. As Lisa Matteo 14 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: mentioned the tech earnings, that tech juggernaut is here writing 15 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: a brilliant note for Wills Fargo is Chris Harvey. He 16 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: is their head of equity strategy, really sharp. 17 00:00:58,200 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 2: Dense note. 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: Is your note top down or bottom up? 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 3: It's bottom up them. But we do obviously we spread 20 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: in a little bit of macro, maybe a little bit 21 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 3: more than a little bit. 22 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: I took a toothpaste company and you know it's like 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: what we learned to Graham Dot in Coddle somebody is 24 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,119 Speaker 1: out this week were the best ten books to read? 25 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: And there's Graham Dot and Coddle, you know, edition forty 26 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: two whatever it is. 27 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:21,919 Speaker 4: And it's boring, boring, boring. 28 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 1: And the ebit does like six percent, twelve percent whatever 29 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: Microsoft's ebit does three four or five times. Describe the 30 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: profit making machinery of these selected Magnificent six. 31 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 3: Yeah. The the thing about the Magnificent six or seven 32 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 3: or the megacaps is they have fortress balance sheets, they 33 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 3: have annuity like businesses, they have pricing power, and they 34 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 3: have global brands. It's they are. They are the new Lovall. 35 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: They are. The market use them as a new Lovall. 36 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 3: The market views them as the panacea. The market use 37 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 3: them as the stocks that they go to. It's the 38 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 3: all weather stock this. 39 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: Last week, and mister Harvey just identified it, folks, for 40 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: those of you that don't have a fancy degree like 41 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: Chris Harvey. 42 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 4: Paul, annuity like cash flows. 43 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: That's what we heard last week, and that's what we 44 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: start with on this Monday with Chris Harvey exactly. 45 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 5: And so Chris, I mean for the folks that maybe 46 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 5: missed that trade last year, What do you tell them 47 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 5: this year? Here? I mean, do I try to jump 48 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 5: on there? Where do I got to look for some 49 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 5: other areas that maybe haven't you know, participated. 50 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 3: So, Paul, I think if you missed it last year, 51 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 3: obviously you just don't want to chase and Chase and chase. 52 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 3: I think the best place to put your money if 53 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 3: you're looking for tech, and we do think growth is 54 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 3: still a pretty good area to be is in the 55 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: communication space. You do get a lot of your media companies, 56 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 3: whether it's Meta, whether it's Google, Disney and things as such. 57 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 3: But these are companies that again they have great balance sheets, 58 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: they have the new to like businesses, but the valuations 59 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 3: are very reasonable and what we call them are momentum 60 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 3: garb right growth at a reasonable price. And they are 61 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 3: working and we think they'll continue to work because the 62 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 3: underlying fundamentals are still good and valuation, unlike a lot 63 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: of the other space, is still pretty attractive. 64 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 5: And I saw your analyser Media Anaal, Steve Cahal at Wells, 65 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 5: Fargar just down Greater Warner Brothers, Discovery. So there's lots 66 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 5: of issues there in a traditional media space. How about 67 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,119 Speaker 5: earnings we're kind of just kind of in the thick 68 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 5: of earnings. We're really going to get some of the 69 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 5: big tech earnings here. What if have you seen so 70 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 5: far this earning cycle? What are you looking for maybe 71 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 5: even this week with some of the big tech names. 72 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 3: What we've seen initially was a bit of the selling 73 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 3: news right last week it was a better reaction, but overall, 74 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 3: they'll seen a little bit of his selling news. What 75 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 3: we're also seeing, and what you would expect, is just 76 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 3: people are managing guidance. They're not saying, Okay, this is 77 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 3: going to be They're saying it's going to be a 78 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 3: great year, but they're not not backing it up with 79 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: guidance raises. They're being more conservative, which is what we 80 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 3: would expect going forward and causing a little bit of 81 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 3: chop in the market right now. 82 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: You know, I look at what to buy hearing, you know, 83 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: I like the idea and the big tech in that. 84 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: What do you listen for in the conference calls today? 85 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: Do you need this week? 86 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: I should say, do you need a validation of where 87 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: the Fortress balance sheet is, what they've done or is 88 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: it a complete Chris Harvey focus on Q three Q 89 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: four This year. 90 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 3: Tom, We're looking for tons of things in earnings. We 91 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 3: really just want to see what's going on. What people 92 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 3: are saying, what's the hot button right now? From financial companies, 93 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: what they're saying is our clients are re risking. Is 94 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 3: that good, bad, and different? We're not sure just yet. 95 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: What are we hearing from some of the consumer companies. 96 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,799 Speaker 3: We're hearing, hey, we're more the client or the consumer 97 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 3: is more value oriented. We're also seeing that the difference 98 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 3: between the high end and low end is still there. 99 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 3: High ends much better than the low end. And then 100 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 3: what we're seeing from companies or what we're looking for 101 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 3: companies is are they managing expectations and how well take it? 102 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: Take this is brilliant? Take it over to the tech companies. 103 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, to the tech companies, we're still going to We're 104 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 3: going to get that right. And what we expect to 105 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 3: see is a management of expectations. You had a great 106 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 3: year last year. You just don't want to say, hey, 107 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 3: I don't expect these companies to come out and say 108 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 3: this year, we're raising numbers, raising guidance. What they want 109 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: to do is they want to manage expectations. What they 110 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: want to tell you it's a good year, but they 111 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: want to be able to progressively step over those expectations 112 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: because the one thing we are hearing is there's not 113 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 3: as much visibility as you would think, and people still 114 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: concerned about the macro. 115 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 5: Twenty twenty four, it's an election year. How do you 116 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 5: kind of factor that into your calculus? 117 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 3: Politics are probably as difficult to handicap as we've seen 118 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: in some time. The one thing that we do know, 119 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 3: and the one thing that we've looked at is the 120 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 3: most important thing for an investor is who controls the Senate. 121 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 3: If the GOP controls the Senate, usually we have a 122 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 3: much better two year run than we do the Democrats 123 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 3: control the Senate. The other thing that we're talking about 124 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 3: a lot, and I'm sure your guests have been talking 125 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 3: about this, this is a big year. People expect this 126 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 3: to be a big year for M and A. If 127 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 3: we do see the GOP not just control the Senate, 128 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: but the ascuse me, but the White House, we could 129 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 3: see M and A late in the year really take 130 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 3: another level up. 131 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: And you're Denny making a lot of press calling for 132 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: the Roaring twenties. Does Wills Fargo see this like you'r 133 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: Denny out with a huge bullish call off the Roaring 134 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenties. I, Tom, we can go a bunch of 135 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: different ways. 136 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 3: We do think you're going to have a little bit more. 137 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 3: We're surprised we haven't seen downside just yet, and so 138 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 3: as a result, we can see the market going one 139 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: to two ways. We can see the market just kind 140 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 3: of muddle along, but we can also see a situation 141 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 3: where we do have irrational exuberance toward the end of 142 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 3: the year with M and A and things of a such. 143 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: Too short Chris Harvey, thank you so much. With Wills 144 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 1: Fargo this morning. Joining us now on a matter of 145 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 1: national import Gregory Vllier. Greg I'm not going to mince 146 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 1: words and strevat us out with a mustard on Bloomberg 147 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: opinion about what. 148 00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 2: To do here. 149 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: But Gregory, it has too many echoes of Lebanon and 150 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: President Reagan. What will be the response of President Biden 151 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: to the wounded, to the killed and far East Jordan? 152 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 6: Well, good morning, Tom. He has to respond, he said 153 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 6: he would respond. So the US is sort of going 154 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 6: to box into a corner. We can't not do anything. 155 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 6: And I think if it's just an airstrike. That's not enough. 156 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 6: It's got to be a robust I recommend to all 157 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 6: of your listeners. The Wall Street Journal lead editorial this 158 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 6: morning talking about what we have to do. It's got 159 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 6: to be a robust response. 160 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: Is the Pentagon communicating with a White House? I think 161 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: there's a lot of people listening, both Democrats and Republicans 162 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: would say if our valier response is run out of 163 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: the White House, that could be problematic. Are the adults 164 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: going to take over the adults at the Pentagon? 165 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they will. We heard the top general 166 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 6: over the weekend say, you know, we don't want to 167 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 6: be disproportionate. We don't want this to spin out of control. 168 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 6: But it's also a political story, is you know, Tom, 169 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 6: and I think that politically Biden has to do something muscular. 170 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 6: He can't have one little whimpy attack, and if he does, 171 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 6: that's going to make his re election prospects even more difficult. 172 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 5: That's kind of where I wanted to go, Greg. I mean, 173 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 5: this is, you know, a political year, an election year 174 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 5: typically in your experience, how does that factor into the 175 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 5: calculus of these types of decisions. 176 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 6: Well, it politicizes everything, and I think on this there 177 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 6: has to be something that would convince the American public 178 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 6: that the Iranians have been punished on this and what 179 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 6: we've seen since the seventh of October is little hit here, 180 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 6: a little hit there, nothing all that big. And what 181 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 6: that does is simply embolden the Iranians. 182 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 5: And Greg to what extent, I mean, this is all 183 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 5: a function of what happened on October seventh? Is you 184 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 5: mentioned here? To what extent do you think the US 185 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 5: should be pressuring Israel to kind of wind this thing down? 186 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 5: Or is that not on the table at this point? 187 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 6: Oh? I think I think off the record, there's there's 188 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 6: communications between the US and Israel, with the US saying 189 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 6: let's cool it, you know, let's let's have a cease 190 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 6: fire for a while, let's get some of these hostages back. 191 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 6: I think from a pr standpoint, that would be quite 192 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 6: positive for Israel and the US. 193 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 5: So, I mean, is this something the new normal? I 194 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 5: guess Greg here in the Middle East? Is what happened 195 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 5: on October seventh. This is going to portend multiple years 196 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,719 Speaker 5: of just a higher level of unrest. Is this kind 197 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 5: of the new normal for this next? 198 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 6: It could be that that's a distressing conclusion, Paul, But 199 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 6: I do think that the Hooties have changed a lot. 200 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 6: I'm not sure the Hoodies are totally under the control 201 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 6: of the Iranians. Yemen is now part of the narrative. 202 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 6: So you've got some new players here, and I think 203 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 6: because of that, I'll bets her off. 204 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 2: Greg, you mentioned the election here. I just want to 205 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 2: go to the military as well. 206 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: One of the discussions that James Travitas today in an 207 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: out bet in Bloomberg Opinion really lays out a detailed 208 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: military response is a third carrier in the region. I'm sorry, Greg, 209 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: it's starting on accountable basis. 210 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 2: It's starting to look like a war. Yeah, and it's 211 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 2: like the Philippines in forty two. 212 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 6: You have to say, Tom that this now gets us 213 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 6: into the debate on how much we're spending on defense, 214 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 6: and a lot of Hawks are saying not enough. We've 215 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 6: got problems in the South China Sea, We've got problems 216 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 6: in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. So I 217 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 6: think there's going to be more spending on defense. 218 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 1: Okay, I'll go with that. But the idea here that 219 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna have supposedly three carriers in one region draws 220 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: resources away from other areas, and I guess the basic 221 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: idea is out there somewhere is an adversary, that there's 222 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: one or two carriers or four carriers, But they don't 223 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: do they. I mean, who are we going after in 224 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: terms of military threats here? 225 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 6: Well, the enemy is illusory and that's a problem. They 226 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 6: don't have uniforms that we can pinpoint. And I would 227 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 6: add tom one other complicating factor and that's the growing 228 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 6: sense of isolationism in the US in the Republican Party. 229 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 6: We still don't see any aid for Ukraine. We don't 230 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 6: see any aid for Israel, for Taiwan, and I do 231 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 6: think this mood of isolationism makes it a lot more 232 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 6: difficult for Biden. 233 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 5: And that kind of goes to just I haven't really 234 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 5: seen a lot of reporting on this. I just wonder 235 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 5: where the American populace is in this, because, again, if 236 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 5: you really think about it, there are a couple hot 237 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 5: wars out there that we're kind of involved in, and 238 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 5: then there's a lot of other stuff that's out there 239 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 5: in terms of uneasy, whether it's Taiwan and so on 240 00:11:57,280 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 5: and so forth. Any sense of where the American public 241 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 5: is here, I. 242 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 6: Think the public is conflicted. There's no strong consensus. We 243 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 6: obviously don't want to see gasoling prices go higher or 244 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 6: anything with the supply chain become a problem, But I 245 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 6: think the American public also has a view that we 246 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 6: need to spend money on domestic issues. 247 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: Well, the domestic issues. Let's go to the domestic moment, 248 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,199 Speaker 1: Greg Villier, What does Nikki Haley. 249 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: Need to do this week? 250 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: Is she moves forward to Nevada the Carolinas in Super Tuesday. 251 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 6: She has to hammer away. I think if she doesn't 252 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 6: do well on Super Tuesday on March fifth, she's out. 253 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 6: But she's got some time, and I think she'll make 254 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 6: good use of the time she's gotten under Trump's skin. 255 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 6: At least there might be more of an attack by her. 256 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 6: I still think she will not be the nominee, but 257 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 6: she still has momentum. 258 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 2: Greg, thank you for the time. 259 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: On short notes is Gregory Villier with AGF today. Dennis 260 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: Gartman joins us now because he wanted to talk about 261 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 1: the parallels here to the sixties and the failure of 262 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: the nifty to fifty in the seventies. How nifty to fifty, 263 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman, are our Magnificent six. 264 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 7: The fact that we had fifty at the one time 265 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 7: now we only have six is the big qualifier at 266 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 7: this point, Tom, But it does remind me so much 267 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 7: of what happened in the nifty to fifty, when you 268 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 7: had to buy simplicity patterns, when you had to buy Luberzol, 269 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 7: when you had to buy IBM, when you had to 270 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 7: buy any of the name of the fifty, and it 271 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 7: was to be put away forever. Those names have all 272 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 7: basically disappeared, or a great good number of them have disappeared. 273 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 4: And from nineteen seventy two to four you had a 274 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 4: great bear market. 275 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 7: So be careful when when you're comparing the nifty to 276 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 7: fifty to the Magi and seven. 277 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 4: The similarities are awfully alike. 278 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: The conceit here of a low tech nifty to fifty 279 00:13:53,840 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 1: is a technological certitude of Deck Digital Equipment Corporation. From 280 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: where you sit, Dennis Gartman into the Magnificent six have 281 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: features of the collapse of Deck Wayne Labs in control data. 282 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: I'm loving this. This is my childhood. I'm bringing out Tennis. 283 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 4: It was our childhood. 284 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 7: We were both barely into the business at the time 285 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 7: I joined the business in nineteen seventy two, and remember 286 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 7: the nifty to fifty very clearly, And the similarities to 287 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 7: me are very distinct and very clear. I'm reminded of 288 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 7: the Tulla Balmania. You and I were a little too 289 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 7: young to remember the fifteenth century. We have the same 290 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 7: circumstances that prevail. The fact that you were supposed to 291 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 7: buy the Magnificent six or Magnificent seven and hold them 292 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 7: to forever just seems too similar to too frightening, too 293 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 7: disconcerting to me. Stocks to me seem extremely overbought. But 294 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 7: then again, I thought they were overbought in November, and 295 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 7: I thought they were overbought in December, and I thought 296 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 7: they were overbought in January. 297 00:14:57,960 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 5: So Dennis, that's kind of where I wanted to go here. 298 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 5: I had that big rip in the marketplace at the 299 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 5: end of last year I think took even you know, 300 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 5: some of the biggest bulls by surprise in terms of 301 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 5: the movement here. And if I think back, I remember 302 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 5: seeing earnings move up at a commensurate at pace to 303 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 5: the stocks. So where are we in terms of valuation? 304 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 4: Here? 305 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 5: Is this market overbought from evaluation perspective? In your opinion? 306 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 7: To me, take a look at I think the real 307 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 7: test is Tesla selling you know what fifty sixty seventy 308 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 7: times earnings? Ford and General Motors sell it. What five 309 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 7: and six times earnings? Should Tesla be ten times the 310 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 7: valuation of Ford and General Motors? I think not, But 311 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 7: thus far I've been wrong, So you have to take 312 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 7: that with a great, very large grain of salt. But 313 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 7: this does remind me very much. I've thought about it 314 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 7: for a long time, very much of the nifty to fifty, 315 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 7: the same circumstances, of the same psychology, the same type 316 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 7: of phenomenon, and it bothers me greatly, no question about that. 317 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: Paul Thursday, Friday, Dan Eyes, who's been constructively optimistic and 318 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: must Tesla really. 319 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 2: Made an adjustment and attitude. 320 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: I'm not going to say capitulated, Maybe that's too strong, 321 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: but he made a massive adjustment and tone of that conference. 322 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 5: He absolutely did. It was noticeable here. So, Dennis, where 323 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 5: where do investors go from here? I mean, did they 324 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 5: sit in their two year churches at four point three percent? 325 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 5: Or do they try to come to the stock market 326 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 5: and look for some values. What are you kind of 327 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 5: thinking at this point? 328 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 4: Well, I'm seventy three, so I've got so much. 329 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 7: Eighty five percent of what I on is is in 330 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: two and three year Treasury notes. At this point, I 331 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 7: own a little bit of gold, but I'm seventy three. 332 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 4: If I were fifty, I'd be looking for value. 333 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 7: I'd be avoiding the magnificent six and seven, and I'd 334 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 7: be looking for value out there. I'd be looking atris, 335 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 7: I'd be looking at utilities, I'd be looking at regional banks. 336 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 7: I'd be looking at the things that are unloved at 337 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 7: this point, and they will be loved again sometime in 338 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 7: the future. So if I were fifty, i'd be looking 339 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 7: for value. Seventy three, I'm looking for safety. 340 00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: Good morning, Lincoln, Nebraska. 341 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for emailing in, they said, Tom 342 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: pick One talked to gartment about gold or red weed. 343 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 1: Redwat doesn't cut at Dennis. Let's talk gold right now. 344 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: If I get the Bank of Japan to capitulate and 345 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 1: I get masses strong, damien sas our Japanese yen do 346 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 1: I want to be in gold in yen? 347 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 7: You want to be gold in dollar terms. You want 348 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 7: to be gold in euro terms. You want to be 349 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 7: golden in yen terms. You want to be golden Swiss. Well, 350 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 7: i'd avoid Swiss Franks at this point, but I think 351 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 7: you need to be involved in gold in US dollars 352 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 7: and non US dollars. I think this is going to 353 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 7: be a move quietly to the upside in the gold market. 354 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 7: It's been a bull market for several years. It's been 355 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 7: completely unloved. Nobody's talking about it, and I think that's 356 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 7: that's consequential. 357 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: Dennis, I'm going mental. I mean, even Sweeney's criticized me. 358 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 1: He's vicious, folks, I have camera. Paul is tough, and Dennis, 359 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: I'm going to cut to the chase. Gold has an 360 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: underlying eleven percent industrial use, forty some percent jewelry use. 361 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: Do you know that gold is you used the jewelry? 362 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 2: That's what I didn't know that. 363 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: Good morning, Elsa Peretti, thank you so much for listening 364 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: this morning. Dennis Gartman, gold is an underlying use. Does 365 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: bitdog have an underlying use? 366 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 4: No? 367 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 7: Bitcoin has no underlying use other than for rank speculation, 368 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 7: and that's all. It is nothing more than that. And 369 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 7: I would avoid it with at all costs, and especially 370 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 7: there might be some reason to own bitcoin because there's 371 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 7: a a finite amount of it to be created, but 372 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 7: ethereum and the rest of them can be created ad infinitum. 373 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 7: So if you have to buy a cryptocurrency, and I 374 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 7: think you shouldn't under any circumstance, but you have no 375 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 7: choice if you just can't avoid the the the rush 376 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 7: to own it. But well, it doesn't have any value, No, 377 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 7: doesn't have any reason. 378 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:46,959 Speaker 2: It's like a duke Paul. 379 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: He goes up to Akron, Ohio where Martine's costs five dollars, 380 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: and Gartman's sitting there on the trust the board, you know, 381 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: the trustees board with millions and millions of dollars, and 382 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: there's some student representative with three ear rings in there. 383 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: There're no saying their ears whatever, saying mister Gartman, please, 384 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: we've got to have some you know, four or five 385 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: interest in bitcoin. 386 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: Yep. 387 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: Can you imagine a coming off the desk from Gartman. 388 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think that's good. 389 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 4: I would reach across the desk and hit him. 390 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 5: There you go. Uh, Dennis, we got geopolitics, unfortunately, front 391 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 5: and center once again for investors to have to deal 392 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 5: with in the Middle East and of course in Eastern Europe. 393 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 5: As you look at that kind of risk out there, 394 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 5: how do you think investors should you know, kind of 395 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 5: factor in geopolitical rest which seems to be a little 396 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 5: bit hot right now. 397 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 7: It's a reason to be less involved in the stock market, 398 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 7: and the reason to be more quietly involved in the 399 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 7: gold market, and a reason to be more quietly involved 400 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 7: or more dramatically involved in the US treasury market. At 401 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 7: this point, I think geopolitics is back on the on 402 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 7: the front. It's moved from the right and left wings 403 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 7: of the stage to the center stage, and I think 404 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 7: it's going to become far more important over of course 405 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 7: the next six months. Watch what Hasbola does in the 406 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 7: level on Remember Hesbola and Hamas are are themselves enemies 407 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,439 Speaker 7: one with the other. They may hate us, but they 408 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 7: hate each other too, And so you're putting a lot 409 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 7: of people in a very small geographic area, and it's 410 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 7: going to become more problematic, not less so. 411 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 2: Dennis, thanks for the brief. 412 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman there with his optimism on the American economic experiment. 413 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 2: She had like four lists. 414 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: You know, there's so much now slow going on this morning, 415 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: Lisa said, time I got four lists, Would you look 416 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: at him? I said, no, I'm having my first tang 417 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: of the morning. I said, I can't do that, so 418 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: she just picked one out. 419 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 2: What do you got tell me? 420 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 8: We're lions free, We're a lions free. Has been battered enough. 421 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 8: I'll leave them be. But this is something actually, you 422 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 8: guys have been talking a lot about the whole streaming 423 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 8: wars Amazon. Today is the day. This is a fight 424 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 8: in the Mateo household. Today they start adding those ads 425 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 8: to their service for Prime. So if you don't want 426 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 8: to see the ads, you have to pay three. 427 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 5: Dollars more on the Prime video. 428 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 8: On the Prime Video. 429 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 5: Yes, so they've always had ads on Amazon dot Com. 430 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 5: That's been a huge business for them. Fifty billion dollars 431 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 5: now and you watch Amazon. 432 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 8: Prime, Yes, Amazon Prime, thank you, Paul. 433 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 7: Yeah. 434 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 8: So they're estimating this is Bank of America. They're saying 435 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 8: that the new business will generate five billion in annual 436 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 8: revenue for Amazon from that three billion ad sales additional 437 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 8: one point eight billion from Amazon Prime subscribers. So they're 438 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 8: hoping it can push viewers to the shop from their TVs. 439 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 8: It's this whole thing where you can kind of so 440 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 8: I'm going to go to a movie, I'm. 441 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:41,199 Speaker 1: Going to go to four hours long Academy word Leonardo DiCaprio, 442 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: Indians killers of the whatever, and they want me to buy, 443 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,959 Speaker 1: you know, toothpaste off of that. 444 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: I'm serious. 445 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 5: Absolutely, can you. 446 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 8: See the ad for toothpased Maybe you will. 447 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: Adam Spencer Sofa writing this up for bloom Today, big 448 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: long article. Ad push aims to turn TVs into shopping cards. 449 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: I love what they did over digit I said Joseph 450 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: about how they're going to sell ads. Do we know 451 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 1: what we're gonna see today? 452 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 5: No? 453 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 8: They said, it's not going to be as many ads 454 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 8: as say. You know, when you were watching regular TV 455 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 8: and you saw the millions of commercials would come up. 456 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 8: You know, it's not going to be as many, but 457 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 8: you're still going to see those commercials. They're just hoping 458 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 8: it's going to get you. 459 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 5: To And the reason they're doing this is because if 460 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 5: you look at Magnet Global, which is probably the independent 461 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 5: source for all advertising, Magnet Global saying by twenty twenty 462 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 5: seven more advertising will be online video versus television, first 463 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 5: time ever. 464 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 2: But help me here, how much is it? 465 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: How much is it to get rid of this problem? 466 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 8: It's gonna gosha three dollars more a month. 467 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: Okay, so wait a minute to get thirty six dollars. 468 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: That's a that's not even a price of Ken Fellow. 469 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: You will help me here. That's not even a price 470 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: of a martini at the Carlisle, is it? 471 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 8: I mean? 472 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 1: I mean I can't even get out of there with 473 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: a negroaning for forty two large for thirty six bucks 474 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: a year, this problem goes away. 475 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 8: Well, here's the thing that gets me is that netl 476 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 8: took a different approach, right Paul. So Netflix, they're laying 477 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 8: subscribers opt into that lower cost. You know, you can 478 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 8: pay less if you want to see the ads. But 479 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 8: Amazon's not doing that. They're just saying you're gonna pay 480 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 8: more if you don't want to see. 481 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,959 Speaker 5: The com This is the future advertising video on demand. 482 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 5: Think about it that way. There you go. 483 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 8: Next, all right, Next, we're talking about New York City 484 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 8: restaurant owners because there's a bill being pushed to abolish 485 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 8: the tip credit. Okay, and they want to have the 486 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 8: weight staff in the city, Long Island, Westchester pace be 487 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 8: it paid seventeen dollars an hour by twenty twenty six. 488 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 8: So there's a survey ninety five percent of restaurant tours 489 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 8: they oppose that bill. Okay, they think that tip credit 490 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 8: that allows owners to pay the weight staff who own 491 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 8: tips less than minimum wage. They're saying it could lead 492 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 8: to higher menu prices if it's gone. They said it 493 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 8: could lead to layoffs, it could even shut them down. 494 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 8: So this report is out there, it's saying it's going 495 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 8: to cost them about twelve thousand more a year to 496 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 8: employ a full time tipped employee if this bill goes through. 497 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is potentially upsetting the entire ECO system of dining. 498 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 5: You know, I don't know why when you get Europeans 499 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 5: to come to the US there, like, what's this tipping 500 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 5: thing you guys? 501 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:09,439 Speaker 6: Do? You know? 502 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 5: So I don't know, but whatever it is, that's how 503 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,719 Speaker 5: we do it in this country. And I would not 504 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 5: want to try to mess with that situation here. But 505 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 5: by the same token, I'm tipping everywhere these days. Everywhere 506 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 5: they turn the screen around to you and say what 507 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 5: do you want to tip? 508 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 4: Are you tipping. 509 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: Or whatever? 510 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just. 511 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 4: I'm not you. 512 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 8: Feel the pressure because there's the screen. 513 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 5: I know it's but this story here again, it's in 514 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 5: the New York Post about you know, if you can 515 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,719 Speaker 5: make you pay your weight staff a minimum wage as 516 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 5: opposed to what you do now, which is blow minimum wage. 517 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 5: But but they get the tips net net. I don't 518 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 5: know how it all works out, but it just seems 519 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 5: like you're can be shifting the cost back on to 520 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 5: the restaurant owner, and that could be an issue. 521 00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 2: So last one, what do you go? 522 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 8: Empty nesters there putting big bucks? They want to pay 523 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 8: coaches to help them through their emotional plan. Okay, so 524 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 8: this is from the Wall Street Journal there. 525 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 1: I mean, if I get rid of afterthought, I'm an 526 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,959 Speaker 1: empty nester and that's a trauma. 527 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 8: That's it's a trauma. Two hundred and fifty dollars an 528 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 8: hour coaches are paying. 529 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: I was fifty the dishwasher. 530 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, but you have continued, all right, I've got a 531 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 5: pair of twenty seven year olds and in their lifetime 532 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 5: the Great financial crisis that impacted them just in terms 533 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 5: of the household and how, and then and then the pandemic. So, 534 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 5: I mean, they've had to endure some stuff that I'm 535 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 5: not sure my generation did. It feels like maybe my parents' 536 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 5: generation with the depression, in a war and things that. 537 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 5: I mean, they've had some stuff that I haven't had 538 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 5: to deal with. So I don't know, but I'm just 539 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 5: you know, it's definitely, you know it is. 540 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 8: But they the parents are the ones who are going 541 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 8: through the trauma, and the parents need the coaching and 542 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 8: the and the help from the professionals. It's become an 543 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 8: actual business. I mean, there are empty nests, coaches. It 544 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 8: is just training, certifications. This is a whole big business 545 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 8: and TikTok Street book everywhere you've. 546 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 1: Seen Michael Barr more than we have this morning. You're 547 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 1: back in our sequestered surveillance studios, which you're off from 548 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,160 Speaker 1: our beautiful class studio. 549 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 8: Here is he okay, He's okay. He's taking a break 550 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 8: right now. I'm gonna go pat his forehead a little bit. 551 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: Make sure did you talk to missus Barr? Is the 552 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 2: marriage in one piece? 553 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 8: She's feeling great? 554 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 6: Yeah? 555 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: I think what she won. I mean, you know, he 556 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 1: mortgaged the house. I know it's painful to say the least. 557 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 558 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 559 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 560 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the 561 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 1: show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from 562 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: our global headquarters in New York City. 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