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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal, Indeed we do, guys. It's

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Speaker 1: a big one today. I'm sure that you all probably

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Speaker 1: already know that a draft opinion was leaked which indicates

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Speaker 1: that the Supreme Court is in fact planning to overturn

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Speaker 1: Roe versus Way. This is obviously a tremendous earthshaking moment

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Speaker 1: in terms of American policy. We will cover that from

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Speaker 1: all angles. Tell you what exactly was leaked, what it

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Speaker 1: says about the leak itself, and also our own analysis

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Speaker 1: based on polling and based on history of what we

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Speaker 1: think this means for the political landscape. Of course, it's

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Speaker 1: really anyone's guess, but there's no doubt that this is

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Speaker 1: really a huge or shattering type of moment in politics.

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Speaker 1: But that's not all. We also had the second Amazon

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Speaker 1: Labor Union election yesterday on Staten Island. They went down

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Speaker 1: to defeat. We'll tell you about that and maybe some

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Speaker 1: reasons why potentially this time was different than last time

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Speaker 1: and what it pretends for the future. And oh, by

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Speaker 1: the way, it's also a big primary day. We have

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Speaker 1: some big races in Ohio with implications for the future

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Speaker 1: of the Republican Party and also the future of the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party. We're going to have a report from Jordan Chariton,

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Speaker 1: our great partner, who is on the ground in Ohio

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Speaker 1: right now with Status KUP. He's got sound both from

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Speaker 1: the Nina Turner Chantel Brown race. He's also got sound

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Speaker 1: from Republicans talking about how they're evaluating their options. There

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Speaker 1: some really interesting stuff, So we'll talk to Jordan about

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Speaker 1: what the mood is there. But We want to start

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Speaker 1: with what is obviously truly bombshell news, the leak of

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Speaker 1: this draft decision that would overturn longstanding precedent of Roe

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Speaker 1: Versus Wade. Politico with what is you know, scoop of

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Speaker 1: the ages here, go ahead and put this up on

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Speaker 1: the screen. I'm going to take my time and go

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Speaker 1: through a good bit of this, so you just have

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Speaker 1: the facts of what happened and what the decision, the

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Speaker 1: draft decision here ultimately says. They say the Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: has voted to strike down the landmark Roe versus Wade decision,

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Speaker 1: according to an initial draft majority opinion written by Justice

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Speaker 1: Samuel Alito, circulated inside the Court and obtained by Politico.

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Speaker 1: The draft opinion is a full throated, unflinching repudiation of

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Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy three decision, which guaranteed federal constitutional protections

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Speaker 1: of abortion rights, and a subsequent ninety two decision that's

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Speaker 1: Planned Parenthood v. Casey that largely maintained the right a rights.

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Speaker 1: Roe was egregiously wrong from the start, so, not mincing

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Speaker 1: words here whatsoever, part of what he writes in the document,

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Speaker 1: he says, we hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled.

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Speaker 1: It is time to heed the Constitution and return the

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Speaker 1: issue of abortion to the people's elected representatives now. They

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Speaker 1: go on to say, deliberations on controversial cases can be fluid.

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Speaker 1: Justices can and sometimes do change their votes as draft

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Speaker 1: opinions circulate, and major decisions can be subject to multiple

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Speaker 1: drafts and vote trading, sometimes until just days before decision

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Speaker 1: is unveiled. The courts holding will not be final until

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Speaker 1: it is published, likely in the next two months. I

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Speaker 1: would say, though, is very unlikely that the contours of

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Speaker 1: what is happening here are ultimately going to change. They

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Speaker 1: say the immediate impact of the ruling is drafted in February.

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Speaker 1: That's the date that is on. This draft that was

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Speaker 1: leaked would be to end a half century guarantee of

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Speaker 1: federal constitutional protection of abortion rights and allow each state

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Speaker 1: to decide whether to restrict or ban abortion. It is

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Speaker 1: unclear if there have been subsequent changes to the draft.

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Speaker 1: Let me read you a little bit of the sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, the TLDR of this lengthy draft Alito

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Speaker 1: Rights Roe was egregiously wrong from the start. Its reasoning

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Speaker 1: was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences

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Speaker 1: and far from bringing about a national settlement of the

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Speaker 1: abortion issue. Roe, in case you have inflame debate and

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Speaker 1: deep in division. Of course, I don't think that this

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Speaker 1: decision is going to lessen debate or lesson divisions, but

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Speaker 1: we'll put that aside. In terms of who is siding

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Speaker 1: with the majority here, we know Thomas Gorsch, Kavanaugh, Amy Coney, Barrett,

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Speaker 1: and Alito who drafted this decision. It's a little bit

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Speaker 1: unsure what Chief Justice John Roberts is ultimately going to do. However,

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Speaker 1: there is reporting that indicates he was going to dissent

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Speaker 1: from the majority opinion and take kind of a middle

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Speaker 1: ground Soager, which was you know, this was all came

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Speaker 1: about because of this Mississippi law that banned abortion after

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Speaker 1: fifteen weeks. So he was trying to find a way

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Speaker 1: and you could hear this in the oral arguments too,

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Speaker 1: where he could uphold the Mississippi law and yet not

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Speaker 1: stripe down Row entirely. And so even though you know,

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Speaker 1: it was very clear the Court is very conservative at

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Speaker 1: this point, is very clear that there has been decades

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Speaker 1: worth of activism to get justices on the court for

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Speaker 1: exactly this moment. There was a thought maybe they would

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Speaker 1: pursue that middle ground of continuing to erode abortion rights,

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Speaker 1: which has been the direction of the Court for years

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Speaker 1: and years now, but not actually go the full distance

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Speaker 1: and overturn Row. It looks like the only justice who

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Speaker 1: will ultimately pursue that course here is likely Chief Justice

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Speaker 1: John Roberts. So it really is an extraordinary moment. A

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Speaker 1: couple more things within the legal reasoning here that are

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Speaker 1: going to be major points of contention. Liberals are looking

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Speaker 1: at this not just in terms of what it means

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Speaker 1: for Roe, which obviously, you know, has extraordinary consequences. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to some of that just a moment, but also

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Speaker 1: what it could mean for some other decisions which have

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Speaker 1: been you know, which have been taken by the Court,

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Speaker 1: which depend on some of the same legal rationale that

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Speaker 1: Roe ultimately did. So, they write in this political piece,

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Speaker 1: liberal justices seem likely to take issue with the leaders

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Speaker 1: assertion in the draft opinion that overturning Roe would not

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Speaker 1: jeopardize other rights the courts have grounded in privacy, such

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Speaker 1: is the right to contraception, to engage in private consensual

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Speaker 1: sexual activity, and to marry someone of the same sex.

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Speaker 1: So in particular, liberals are concerned about the Obergafell ruling.

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Speaker 1: That's the one that granted the right to same sex marriages.

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Speaker 1: There are others as well that sort of depended on

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Speaker 1: some some of the same legal rationale. So it truly

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Speaker 1: is an extraordinary moment and how it happened and when

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Speaker 1: it happened, in what it means, and there is a

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Speaker 1: lot to take in and a lot to process here today. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's no way around it. So I think we can

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Speaker 1: at least say within that So within the vote itself,

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Speaker 1: we know then that that means that Justice is Alito Kavanaugh.

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Speaker 1: Tom miss Barrett joined the decision now obviously and obviously

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Speaker 1: a leader since he's the person who of course Justice

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Speaker 1: Gorsuch as well. There were some questions on Justice Gorcich

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Speaker 1: given his ruling in the boss Stock case, but that

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Speaker 1: was more on a libertarian minded view whenever it came

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Speaker 1: to trans issues. So this one at least pushes that

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Speaker 1: in that vein in terms of Justice Roberts, like you said,

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Speaker 1: we do have reporting. It's difficult, you know, in terms

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Speaker 1: of people familiar with thinking and all of this. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to this in the leak section of our show.

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Speaker 1: But you know, relying on all of these reports and

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Speaker 1: we don't actually know the vote actually makes it even harder.

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Speaker 1: And another thing I would emphasize is this is a

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Speaker 1: draft report. As you said, it is possible that things

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Speaker 1: have moved around. So from a lot of the legal

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Speaker 1: analyzes that I have looked at and from my friends

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Speaker 1: who are certain, is that the vote is almost certainly

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Speaker 1: not likely to change. However, it could be that the

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Speaker 1: opinion and the scope of the opinion could change somewhat

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Speaker 1: whenever it's eventually issued. So this was not expected until July.

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Speaker 1: There's also a lot of questions here about what exactly

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Speaker 1: the court is going to do. They could come out

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Speaker 1: today and just be like, Okay, here's a majority of opinion.

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Speaker 1: They may, you know, the dissents and all that are

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Speaker 1: still being written, but you know, given the extraordinary leak

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Speaker 1: of what's happened here, we're just going to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and make this which may settle law. They have not responded,

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Speaker 1: have respondented at all to this point, right, And that's

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Speaker 1: another point where both pro life people and people who

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Speaker 1: are pro choice are saying, is like, hey, this is

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Speaker 1: a draft opinion. You know, the law of the land

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Speaker 1: is still what it is, so this does not affect

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Speaker 1: current laws that are on the books. That being said,

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Speaker 1: when it is issued, it will have a significant impact

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Speaker 1: and definitely just change the scope of our politics. Put

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Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. There are twenty one

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Speaker 1: states currently that have auto trigger laws that either ban

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Speaker 1: or restrict abortion if Roe versus Weighed is overturned. So

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of laws on the books, and

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Speaker 1: I'll just go ahead and read these. Most would ban

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Speaker 1: abortion with limited exceptions like medical emergencies or in the

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Speaker 1: cases of rape or incepts. Those are Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,

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Speaker 1: North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. So

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Speaker 1: those were all laws which were actually enacted mostly during

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration as the ability so that the way

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Speaker 1: the state legislatures would not have to meet in order

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Speaker 1: to overban abortion if they wanted to. It was like

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Speaker 1: an auto trigger law in the event of what happened

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Speaker 1: with Roe versus Wade. Now there are other states which

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Speaker 1: have some which will clear certain types of restriction. So

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Speaker 1: those states trigger law states would choose to immediately begin enforcement.

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Speaker 1: Other states would have a so called phase in period

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Speaker 1: with the heartbeat laws that we've seen, so it's very

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Speaker 1: very different in terms of state by states, and then

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Speaker 1: I believe others also have. Oregon, Vermont and the District

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Speaker 1: of Columbia have it specifically enshrined all the way up

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Speaker 1: until the point of birth. So that is just the

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Speaker 1: clear kind of Now it's going to become a state issue,

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Speaker 1: you know, if and when this does actually become the

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Speaker 1: law of the land. And I think that people need

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Speaker 1: to adjust how they're going to look at these types

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Speaker 1: of polities because it's just going to change, you know,

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Speaker 1: the state legislators themselves are going to become major flashpoints.

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Speaker 1: And I think my question in your question as well,

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Speaker 1: is like how does this change the landscape in a

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Speaker 1: state like a Pennsylvania, in a state like Florida, in

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Speaker 1: a state like what are some other purple states that

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Speaker 1: are at Georgia Actually, yeah, is one that could possibly

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Speaker 1: go more rent as a result of this. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to the policy Georgia actually has already. They have a

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Speaker 1: very extreme ban already on the book starting at six weeks,

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Speaker 1: so six week after that, you're done. I mean, for

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Speaker 1: any of you who have been pregnant before you often

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Speaker 1: don't even know till around six weeks. So you know,

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Speaker 1: Georgia now being a purple state, I think, yeah, that

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Speaker 1: could probably push the state more in the direction of,

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Speaker 1: you know, a hardening sort of suburban democratic majority. But

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Speaker 1: we'll get to a little bit more of that because

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Speaker 1: we're going to delve into the politics here in a

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Speaker 1: few minutes. You know, the reason why it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit complex and you'll see slightly different numbers in different

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Speaker 1: places about which states will effectively automatically ban or severely

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Speaker 1: restrict abortion when this ruling does go into effect is

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Speaker 1: because you know, the laws are complex. So you have

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Speaker 1: some states that it's just straight out they you know,

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Speaker 1: passed a law that says, if Roe gets overturned, we

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Speaker 1: are automatically these are called trigger bands, so we are

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Speaker 1: automatically effectively ending the right to abortion in our state. Period.

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Speaker 1: You have some states there's a new one added to

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Speaker 1: the listens actually that article was even written. That's Florida,

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Speaker 1: where they passed a law that was very similar and

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Speaker 1: to Santa signed it into law to the Mississippi law

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Speaker 1: that was in front of the court. It is a

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Speaker 1: fifteen week ban with exceptions only for life of the mother,

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Speaker 1: but not for rape or incest. You have some states

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Speaker 1: that had, prior to ROW an abortion band that was

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Speaker 1: already pre existing and on the books, and then ROW

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Speaker 1: went into effect and effectively nullified those laws. But the

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Speaker 1: laws are still on the books, so you know, for

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Speaker 1: some of those those are likely to come back into effect.

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Speaker 1: As you pointed out, some places, it will happen immediately.

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Speaker 1: Some places there will be a phase in over time.

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Speaker 1: And I also think it's worth pointing out that because

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Speaker 1: of the way that abortion rights have been sort of

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Speaker 1: the ground has already eroded under abortion rights over the

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Speaker 1: past decades. You already have a number of red states

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Speaker 1: where the right is already effectively got. Texas is a

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Speaker 1: good example. Kentucky, where I used to live, is a

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Speaker 1: good example. You know what I was there. I think

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Speaker 1: there was one clinic that remained in the state. That

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Speaker 1: clinic was constantly under assault from Republicans who tried to

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Speaker 1: pass these laws that were like putting out all of

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Speaker 1: these superfluous medical restrictions that weren't really necessary for the clinics,

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Speaker 1: but made it impossible for them to continue to operate.

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Speaker 1: So there are already a number of states where the

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Speaker 1: right is already effectively gone. I read a New York

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Speaker 1: Times analysis this morning that was pretty interesting in terms

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Speaker 1: of estimating what the overall impact of overturning ROW is

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Speaker 1: likely to be, and what they found is in Texas,

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Speaker 1: after their new law went into effect, abortions dropped by

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Speaker 1: about ten percent because you had women who know who

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Speaker 1: had the means at least, who were able to travel

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Speaker 1: across state lines. You had others who were able to

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Speaker 1: get abortion pills in the mail. They estimate that it

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Speaker 1: would this overturning of ROW would probably reduce abortions by

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Speaker 1: about fourteen percent because it's more sweeping in scope. They

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Speaker 1: also point out, which I think is always important to remember,

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Speaker 1: who is the most typical patient seeking an abortion. It's

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Speaker 1: usually low income women. So there is no doubt just

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Speaker 1: factually that this ruling will overwhelmingly impact poor and working

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Speaker 1: class women. Wealthy women in this country, pre ROW, post ROW,

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Speaker 1: and after this overturning of ROW happens have always been

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Speaker 1: able to get whatever care, whatever doctors, whatever access, whatever

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Speaker 1: procedures they want to get. That will undoubtedly still be

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Speaker 1: the case. It's poor and working class women who will

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Speaker 1: be affected. By this, they are the typical abortion patients.

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Speaker 1: And it's also worth pointing out here that the typical

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Speaker 1: woman seeking an abortion is a mother who already has children.

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Speaker 1: So listen, you know my personal feelings on this. I

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Speaker 1: am a mother. I know that there are people who

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Speaker 1: watch this show who have any range of views on

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Speaker 1: the issue. I do think it's, you know, disingenuous to

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Speaker 1: say that the moral issues involved are not complex, or

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Speaker 1: that there are not competing moral claims here. Personally, I

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Speaker 1: have always felt that because it is a complex moral issue,

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Speaker 1: the best thing, the best course for governments to take

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Speaker 1: is to trust the women who are evaluating a very

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Speaker 1: difficult landscape and making very difficult choices. So that's why

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Speaker 1: I've always been pro choice and why I do, you know,

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Speaker 1: think this decision ultimately will be really damaging for a

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Speaker 1: lot of women out there. And the last thing I'll

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Speaker 1: say of this on my own personal opinion is that

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Speaker 1: if you do care, and I do, and I know

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Speaker 1: probably all of you listening do as well about reducing

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Speaker 1: the number of abortions, because no one is like yay

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Speaker 1: go abortion. Abortion is a wonderful thing. You know. You

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Speaker 1: can look at the statistics and see that the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of women who seek abortions are low income. And

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Speaker 1: see that if you deal with material conditions and you

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Speaker 1: allow women to be able to support their children and

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Speaker 1: their families and create an atmosphere of thriving, then you

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Speaker 1: are very you are going to have a very large

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Speaker 1: effect in terms of reducing abortions. So that's what I'll

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Speaker 1: say about it. It's funny, Chris. You know I've said

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Speaker 1: previously I'd rather gouge my eyes out than talk about abortion.

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Speaker 1: But I guess it's here, so cards on the table,

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Speaker 1: here it is. I grew up in evangelical Texas, left

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Speaker 1: a bit of a scar on me. I can just

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Speaker 1: tell you personally, I consider myself a barsool conservative. I'm

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Speaker 1: culturally center right whenever it comes to modern culture warriores.

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Speaker 1: But I've always been safe, legal and rare guy, basically

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Speaker 1: a Democrat from the nineteen nineties. I mean, what you

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Speaker 1: just espoused is literally what Bill Clinton said on the

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two Democratic nomination. I know that's going to

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Speaker 1: piss off a lot of my Republican and Catholic friends

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Speaker 1: here in Washington, but look, I mean, I think I

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Speaker 1: owe it to the audience. To tell people where I'm

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Speaker 1: coming from. So if you are a person who is

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Speaker 1: super pro life and you're Catholic or Evangelical or somebody else, Orthodox, Jewish, etc.

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Speaker 1: I am not going to be a representative on this issue,

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Speaker 1: and I just think it's important for people to understand

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Speaker 1: where I'm coming from. I do think some of the

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Speaker 1: histrionics on this are wrong. I mean, for example, what

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Speaker 1: you were talking about. I know several states New York,

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Speaker 1: California and elsewhere are going to set up travel funds

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Speaker 1: so that people who are in these places can travel

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Speaker 1: to those states. I think that's very likely to be

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Speaker 1: the next frontier of like a lot of abortion politics.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, look, I mostly share your view

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Speaker 1: on the entire thing. I'm pretty socially libertarian and have

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Speaker 1: become so, especially over the last two years during the

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Speaker 1: COVID pandemic. And you know, whenever I look at this issue,

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Speaker 1: I mostly trust people to do what they want for themselves.

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Speaker 1: I do have a real moral aversion to like partial birth,

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Speaker 1: abortion and anything. You know, I was telling you there's

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Speaker 1: a case here in Washington where there were some released

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Speaker 1: photos of babies who were aborted when they were like

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Speaker 1: seven months old and now I was like, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: You know that's crazy. That's a straight up murder. Now.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously you know the Catholics and the Christians

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Speaker 1: and are going to be like, wow, life begins a conception. Listen.

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Speaker 1: You know I'm not religious. I don't share your view.

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Speaker 1: I'm never going to You're not going to convince me

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Speaker 1: of it. I do want to respect, though, the people

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Speaker 1: who feel that way. It's a free country, you know,

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Speaker 1: You're allowed to believe what you would like. And I

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Speaker 1: know this is a number one issue for a lot

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Speaker 1: of people who voted for Donald Trump. I do think

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to this in the Row Politics segment. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is going to have a significant impact

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Speaker 1: on our public discourse. I would just ask you try

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Speaker 1: and engage it in the way that we're here. Crystal,

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Speaker 1: you just gave an extraordinarily compelling case, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: on the pro choice point of view. You could also

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Speaker 1: see clearly why people might be able to descend from it. Guys,

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Speaker 1: if you are out there, please just spend some time

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Speaker 1: engaging both with the people on both sides and try

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Speaker 1: to understand that they are not like demonic and they

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Speaker 1: don't want to destroy you both on either side. Now,

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Speaker 1: are there fringe elements, like you said, are there people

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Speaker 1: who are like Leana Dunham who literally support and celebrate abortion? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you can find that, frankly amongst all people. Well, you

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Speaker 1: can find And that's what I'm saying. Will exactly say

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Speaker 1: I'm a murderer for what I just that's right. You

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Speaker 1: know people will call me a murderer too. I already

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Speaker 1: know that. You can see that. Hear the screeching. I

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Speaker 1: don't particularly care, but listen, those fringe elements exist on

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Speaker 1: all sides of the debate. I would just say that,

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Speaker 1: you know, let's all try to remember who we are.

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Speaker 1: We've lived through much more contentious times in this country,

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Speaker 1: and I know it's a difficult time for people. I

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Speaker 1: personally felt, and I know this sounds crazy. I felt

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Speaker 1: a sense of dread when I saw the news because

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Speaker 1: I was like, oh man, this is just like, this

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Speaker 1: is the last thing we need in terms of ripping

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Speaker 1: us all apart. But I also know that there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of Catholic moms and you know March for

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Speaker 1: Life people out there. This is their number one issue.

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Speaker 1: They've been trying for this for forty years and you know,

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Speaker 1: people have constituencies in this country and it is what

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Speaker 1: it is. You can argue that this issue is maybe

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Speaker 1: the most central issue to why Trump ultimately was elected. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: because I mean it was him putting Mike Pence on

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Speaker 1: the ticket to shore up, to signal to evangelicals like

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. You know, you may not love my

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Speaker 1: choices in life. And I know in the past, in

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Speaker 1: the past he supported planned parenthood. I mean, he clearly

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Speaker 1: like doesn't really care about the issue, but it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter what he personally feels, because ultimately puts Pence on

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Speaker 1: the ticket, he releases his list of Supreme Court justices,

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Speaker 1: and in the wake of the fallout from the grabberer,

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Speaker 1: by the pussy scandal, that really helped to shore up

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Speaker 1: and bring home that Christian you know, evangelical base for

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Speaker 1: whom this has been an extremely animating issue for decades.

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Speaker 1: So and now that base is his hardest support. And

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Speaker 1: to be quite honest, you know, a lot of times

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Speaker 1: we talk about like, oh, it doesn't make sense. You

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Speaker 1: hear this analysis a lot like why do they love

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump? This is why right here, because ultimately this

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Speaker 1: was the issue the number one issue that they were

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Speaker 1: backing him for, and now it's it's actually happening. The

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Speaker 1: last thing I want to say, and then we can

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Speaker 1: move on to how this came out, which is also

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Speaker 1: you know, worth discussing and is also pretty extraordinary. Is

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Speaker 1: they write a leader rights in this draft decision. We

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Speaker 1: do not pretend to know how our political system or

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Speaker 1: society respond to today's decision overruling Rowan Casey, And even

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Speaker 1: if we could foresee what will happen, we would have

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Speaker 1: no authority to let that knowledge influence our decision. We

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Speaker 1: can only do our job, which is to interpret the law,

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Speaker 1: apply long standing principles of starry decisives. I think that's

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Speaker 1: how you say that, and decide this case accordingly. We

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Speaker 1: therefore hold that the Constitution does not confer a right

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Speaker 1: to abortion Rowe in case you must be overruled, and

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Speaker 1: the authority to regulate abortion must be returned to the

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Speaker 1: people and their elected representatives. So Alito basically acknowledging here

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Speaker 1: that this is going to be a shit show, that

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Speaker 1: this is going to be trigger an incredibly tumultuous time

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Speaker 1: in American politics, because you know, for the majority of

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Speaker 1: the country, we're going to get to the polls, roe

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Speaker 1: is has been sort of settled law, it's accepted, it's

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Speaker 1: you know, very significant majority support. Now Americans views on

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Speaker 1: abortion are kind of all over the place. It's complex.

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Speaker 1: You know, Americans buy and large a sort of moderate

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Speaker 1: on how they feel about abortion rights. Most people don't

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Speaker 1: think you should have the right all the way up

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Speaker 1: till you know the date of birth. But they also

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Speaker 1: don't support you know, even in very red states the

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Speaker 1: heartbeat bills that would say the moment that there's a heartbeat,

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Speaker 1: you abortion is one hundred percent banned. So you know,

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Speaker 1: this definitely puts the court on the side of a

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Speaker 1: relatively extremist position here, and you know, it's it's going

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Speaker 1: to be it's the first time where instead of just

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Speaker 1: this sort of casual erosion of this right or other

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Speaker 1: things that have been broadly viewed by a large number

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Speaker 1: of people as social progress, where you have an actual

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Speaker 1: clear Oh, the bending of the moral universe doesn't actually

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Speaker 1: always ark towards chessas it depends, of course, But I'm

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Speaker 1: saying in terms of the majority of the country, based

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Speaker 1: on the polling right, this is a decision that by

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Speaker 1: the majority of the country has been viewed as progress

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Speaker 1: for it to be then overturned. I do think that

431
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 1: it is a real wake up call for a lot

432
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: of people that none of these things can ultimately be

433
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,959
Speaker 1: taken for granted. None of it is completely settled ground.

434
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: And that's just my encouragement to you, wherever you fall

435
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: on this issue or any other on the political spectrum,

436
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 1: to not take for granted any privileged benefit right that

437
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: you enjoy in this country. Any and all of it

438
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: can be rolled back if you are disengaged, if you

439
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 1: were apathetic, if you think that, you know, you don't

440
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 1: want to get your hands dirty in politics, or if

441
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 1: you think that you're you know, too disgusted with the system,

442
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: which I certainly understand and relate to ultimately get involved.

443
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: So that's sort of the ruling. As I said at

444
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: the beginning. You know, there is some outside chance that

445
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 1: it could change between now and the month or two

446
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: months from now when it ultimately is is released and

447
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: becomes law of the land, but I think that is very,

448
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 1: very unlikely, and it seems incredibly, you know, almost certain

449
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 1: that this is the direction the country has had it in.

450
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and move on then to Scotist politics.

451
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: Because this how this all came out is a crazy

452
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 1: story in and of itself. As you said, basically scoop

453
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: of this entury there from Politico and the overall analysis

454
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: of how this is going to affect the Court for

455
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 1: decades to come really is not yet being grappled with.

456
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 1: Put this up there on the screen from Scotis blog.

457
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: The document leak to Politico is almost certainly authentic draft

458
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: opinion by Justice Alito that reflects what he believes. At

459
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: least five members of the Court have voted to support

460
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: over ruling low Row, but as Alito's draft, it does

461
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,479
Speaker 1: not reflect the comments or the reactions of other justices.

462
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: So that is definitely something to keep in mind whenever

463
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 1: you're looking at that. We don't yet know if you're

464
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: going to have concurrences from Justice Thomas, concurrences from Justice

465
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: Barrett and others that you know, the people should remember

466
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: they don't they're not entirely familiar with the way that

467
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: these things go. But there can usually be you know,

468
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 1: up to like ten documents that are issued with different

469
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 1: concurrences selective concurrence, he says, it can be hundreds of pages.

470
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: It is noteworthy the draft is from February, So it

471
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: could have changed, it could have already changed. That's an

472
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 1: important thing to note that, right, Okay, And so then

473
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: in terms of the leak itself, there's a lot of

474
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 1: questions about this leak. Let's put this up there on

475
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: the screen again from scotis blog. It is impossible to

476
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: overstate that the earthquake this will cause inside of the

477
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: court in terms of the destruction of trust amongst justice

478
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: in staff, this leak is the gravest, most unforgivable sin.

479
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: And what he means is that within the court itself,

480
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 1: it is a long standing precedent you do not leak

481
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: draft opinions because they get issued by the Court itself

482
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: whenever everything is ready as of because it is literally

483
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: the law of the land. It can change markets, it

484
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: can change the country. Obviously, this one is going to

485
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: impact our politics dramatically. And so as I understand it,

486
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: Having spoken now to some people who were on scotus

487
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: are familiar with the process for clerking, this is the

488
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: cardinal sin. You are never allowed to leak, not only

489
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 1: to reporters, but a draft opinion itself being circulated is

490
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: like that is a whole other realm. Now we don't

491
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: know the circumstances under which this was leaked, and I

492
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: do think it is worth kind of understanding who the

493
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: people who brought this to light are. So the two

494
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: reporters who published this at Politico, Josh Gernstein and Alex Ward.

495
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: So what's interesting about the two of them Because I

496
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: actually knew Alex back in my Pentagon days. He is

497
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: a national security reporter who used to work at VAS.

498
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,959
Speaker 1: Josh Gernstein is a legal expert. You and I are

499
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: probably most familiar with him for his reporting on the FBI,

500
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: so it's not that he's more familiar again with national

501
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 1: security law. There are a lot of questions right now

502
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 1: as to why exactly the person who broke Probably are

503
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 1: the people who broke probably the biggest scoop of the

504
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: last twenty years, are not Adam Liptak, who is the

505
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: New York Times correspondent, Nina Totenberg the NPR Supreme Course.

506
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: She may have been placed back off of leave for

507
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: some ethical decisions, but anyway, Nina Totenberg, she's the previous

508
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: person who ever actually reported inside the Supreme Court. Jane

509
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: Mayer over at The New Yorker, there are many reporters

510
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: in this town who have been covering the court frankly

511
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: know the justices, if dined with them, been to their parties, weddings,

512
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff. The fact that they did not

513
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: report this and get this is pretty extraordinary. It leads

514
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: to a question also on the leak strategy. And this

515
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: is another thing I want to spend a little bit

516
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: of time on, which is that there is an overwhelming

517
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: assumption right now that this leak came from a liberal

518
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 1: member of the Court, either a Justice herself or himself,

519
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: or a member of their staff. But there also is

520
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: a prevailing opinion on the right, in right legal world

521
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: that this was actually leaked, because this is the majority

522
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: opinion that should have been and has now been kind

523
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: of hammered away by Roberts or by Justice Kavanaugh because

524
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: we don't know what the internal one is. So, I mean,

525
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: I don't really know what to think. One theory floating

526
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 1: out there is that the reason Gernstein and Ward got

527
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: it is because it's possible that the email system for

528
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court was hacked and by like within the

529
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: National security real Yeah, Like, there's one theory that this

530
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: was actually a hack of their email servers and then

531
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 1: it was leaked, you know, to people who would be

532
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 1: familiar with those types of sources, possibly like the NSA.

533
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: Once again, by the way, dude, this is not that's

534
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: interesting though. Number two is that this was a liberal justice.

535
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: I would say the overwhelming kind of opinion is on

536
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: that one. Number three, it seems like to your point

537
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: about who got the scoop, it does seem like if

538
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 1: it was a liberal justice, it would go they go yeah,

539
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: or even like a Jeffrey Tubin or exactly yeah. Jeffrey

540
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: Tuben is another one. He was written entire books on

541
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: the court. I means, you know, the CNA, he was

542
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 1: the first person who was on cns's his name at NBC.

543
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 1: Who's very Pete, Pete Williams, Yeah Williams. You know, these

544
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 1: are people who have direct personal relationships tons of sources

545
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: within the court, right, yeah, you listen. This is all

546
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: pure conjecture, but I would think that if it was

547
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: actually one of the liberal justices, that it would have

548
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: come to one of those. I would think so too.

549
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: Maybe they're trying to carry cover their tracks. Also, it's

550
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: possible that Justice had no idea a member of the

551
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: staff did it. Maybe they went to College with alex

552
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 1: Or with Josh Guards. You know, I mean, who knows

553
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: like how these all things play out. Also, I see

554
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: some criticism of Politico for publishing the story. Oh come on, please.

555
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: If I had my hands on this, I hit published

556
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: the moment. I can't believe anyone's even art story of

557
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: all time. Yeah, I mean, in terms of national impact,

558
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 1: it was crazy, and especially I'm sure it probably came

559
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: from the same people who would be outraged that, you know,

560
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 1: Twitter censored The Hunter and things like that. It's all right, guys,

561
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: we got to be consistent here. I do think that,

562
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: you know, it was wrong to sense of the Hunter

563
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: Biden's story. Obviously, if you're Politico or any news organization,

564
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,239
Speaker 1: you run us all, You're gonna run, no question. I

565
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: did think that, you know, there was a lot of

566
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: conservative outrage about the fact of the leak itself. I

567
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: just want to say, like, to me, the substance is

568
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 1: way more important than the leak. I am not outraged

569
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: about the league. I view this, listen. I have no

570
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: respect for like the norms and guardrails of the Supreme Court.

571
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: I think it's an undemocratic, unaccountable institution. I think it

572
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: already kind of sucks. I think it's you know, I

573
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: think it's norms suck too, by the way, like they

574
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: have this instinct it's a total lack of transparency and

575
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: also towards a total lack which we covered on this show,

576
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: of any sort of ethical guardrails for their own justices,

577
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: unlike other places within the judiciary, within the federal judiciary.

578
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: So you know, and again it's the same type of

579
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: people who are during the Trump era would have been like, ah,

580
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: the norms and guardrails you guys, stop with your pearl clutching.

581
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: Are now like, oh, how could you violate the sacred

582
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: norms of the Supreme Court? I get where they're coming from.

583
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: I do think it's extreme. I think, really, whoever did this,

584
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: you did us all a disservice, because really, Crystal and

585
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: I agree with you, this substance is obviously most important,

586
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: But there's a reason we led the show with that.

587
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: That's not going to be my first take. My real

588
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: thing is, guys, as people who we want to know

589
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: the full picture. All we have is some draft opinion.

590
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: We don't know the concurrence, we don't know what the

591
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: law is, we don't know who voted against. We don't

592
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: know what the full effect is. Okay, let's say that

593
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: you're whoever leaked this is pro choice. Well, listen, whoever

594
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: you did this, you just put a lot of women

595
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,959
Speaker 1: who are maybe they're a lady who doesn't go get

596
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: an abortion right now. I mean it, Listen, it's still

597
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: the law. You can if you want to. And there

598
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: could be someone who says, I better give this shit though,

599
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: right right exactly? I mean, you care it's extraordinarily likely

600
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: that that's going to happen, right, I mean, you could go.

601
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's going to be planned lines down the

602
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: block on planned parenthood here in Washington or many of

603
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,239
Speaker 1: the other liberal cities. So I just think whoever did

604
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: this really did as all. I don't agree with that,

605
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: because I ultimately think the more information and the sooner

606
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: the American people have that information, the better. I mean,

607
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: we're also going to be talking about voting happening right

608
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: now in critical political primary races that you know could

609
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: very much be impacted by what looks extremely likely to

610
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 1: occur in this case. So so I totally disagree with that.

611
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: I do actually think it was a service to have

612
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: this information, to have the transparency around it to have

613
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: insight into their thinking. And you know, I have no

614
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 1: issue with I have no issue with whoever decided to

615
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: leak this for whatever reason it was. And I think

616
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: you're right to point out like there is sort of

617
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: a working assumption that this was someone who was pro choice,

618
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: who was upset about the direction of the decisions for

619
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: one who wanted to try to put pressure somehow and

620
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: like a Hail Mary Pass to get somebody to bend

621
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: under public pressure and go a different direction. I don't

622
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: think that there's any chance that strategy is ultimately going

623
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 1: to work. So basically, I think this just gives us

624
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: insight earlier to where the Court has ultimately landed on

625
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: one of the central fault lines in American politics of

626
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: the last fifty years. I would just like to say

627
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: on this, which is that it will destroy trust on

628
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,479
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court and it will change the way that

629
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: this works for all time, because, like I said, there

630
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: is a pretty cordial relationship right now between you know,

631
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: like Justice Kagan as friends with was or Justice Ginsburg

632
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: was really good friends with, like Justice Scalia and the

633
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: units to go to conferences together, and Bryan Kagan is

634
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: apparently close with Roberts all this other stuff. Then that

635
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: stuff is over in terms of sharing pain. I know,

636
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: I know you don't care. I don't really care about

637
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: their have a big impact though I don't really know

638
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: what it looked like personally. Be happy to see the

639
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: UH trust and credibility of the Supreme Court go down. Well,

640
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: this is going to change I mean, this is certainly

641
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: going to polarize it. This is going to polarize it,

642
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: no question on the mod The other thing, I just

643
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: wanted to point out some of the history here because

644
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: you actually sent this this morning, which is that there's

645
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: no doubt that a leak, a premature leak of decision

646
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 1: is extraordinarily rare, but is not completely unprecedented. And actually, interestingly,

647
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: when Roe was actually decided, there was a clerk for

648
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: one of the justices who gave I think it was

649
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: Time magazine the jump on the story. And then so

650
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: the whole idea was, Okay, I'm going to give you

651
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: insight into what the decision is, but it's embargoed until

652
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,479
Speaker 1: the decision actually comes out. And because there was a

653
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: delay in releasing the decision, Time actually their magazine went

654
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: to print and was on newsstands several hours before the

655
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: decision actually came down and really sort of like screwed

656
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: over this clerk who tendered as who was like, I'll

657
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: resign if you want, and I mean the reporter, you know,

658
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: and Time magazine really kind of screwed him over. Because

659
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 1: when you have an embargo, you have an embargo, and

660
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: that's that. So that is an instance when it was

661
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: leaked ahead of time and there was a jump on

662
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 1: the story is obviously a little bit different than this situation,

663
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: where you know, it's clearly an attempt by someone to

664
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 1: inform the public early and potentially try to affect ultimately

665
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 1: the outcome here is whatever the outcome is here, although

666
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: again I think that is extremely almost you know, impossibly

667
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 1: unlikely to happen, but it is. It is very rare

668
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 1: for this ultimately to happen and does represent in its

669
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: way also a sort of watershed breakdown in terms of,

670
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: you know, how the court operates. Again, I have no

671
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: problem with that, but that's just like the factual way.

672
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: It's a fact matter change course of business there on

673
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: the court, and you know that that is something which

674
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 1: is going to be interesting. Also, let's go put this

675
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: next one up there on the screen, just people who

676
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: are asking about the authenticity. Here's what Politico said in response,

677
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 1: and it should also be notable. It's kind of like

678
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: the Hunter Biden story, where look, you think the Supreme

679
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: Court's not aware that this is out there. If it

680
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 1: was fake, they would tell them. They would tell it. Yeah,

681
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: like they would have immediately shot it. They would have

682
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 1: been like, this is a fake report. This is not. Actually.

683
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: There's a good example of this recently. Remember there was

684
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: that story where people claimed that Soda Mayor had to

685
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: work from home because Justice Courses wouldn't wear a mask,

686
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 1: and they all put out statements being like, this is bullshit,

687
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: that none of that happened. So we literally know that

688
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: that happened. I think it happened like three or four

689
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,919
Speaker 1: months ago. So here's an example. Where been out there

690
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: now it's we're filming this. It's eight forty seven am

691
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: here on the East Coast. Guarantee you all the Justice

692
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: has been up all night. If it was fake, they

693
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 1: would have told us so. But in regards to that,

694
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: the Politico says, extensive review possible were confident of the

695
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 1: authenticity of the draft, And again, pretty much everybody who

696
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 1: is familiar with the court says that this is absolutely

697
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 1: an authentic draft. So look, take that for what you will.

698
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 1: All right, guys, I don't know if you've been paying attention,

699
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: but happen to catch my eye last week that the

700
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 1: stock market has been did not have a great month

701
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: in April, and we will tell you why that matters

702
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: potentially to your life. Go ahead and put the numbers

703
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: up on the screen there from CNBC. Dow tumbles more

704
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: than nine hundred points. The NASDAK drops four percent on

705
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 1: Friday to close out a brittal month. So let me

706
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: read you some of the details here they say US

707
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 1: stocks on Friday, NASDAK composite notching it's worse months since

708
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. As Amazon became the latest victim

709
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: in April's technology led selloff, the tech heavy Nasdaq fell

710
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 1: nearly four point two percent, weighed down by that Amazon

711
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: post earnings plunge. The SMP retreated by three point six percent.

712
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 1: The Dow shed nine hundred and thirty nine points, or

713
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: close to two point eight percent. Nasdaq finished at a

714
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: new low for twenty twenty two. The SMP did as well,

715
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 1: with the mainstock benchmark taking out its previous low in March.

716
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: They point to here a couple of things. First of all,

717
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: they mentioned Amazon with a bad earnings report. They lost

718
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: about fourteen percent, biggest drop since two thousand and six,

719
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: after reporting a surprise loss and issuing weak revenue guidance

720
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 1: for the second quarter. And Amazon, of course being a

721
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: global retailer subject to the same supply chain issues and

722
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: global forces as everyone else. So when they saw Amazon

723
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 1: taking this surprise loss, that seemed to trigger broader losses

724
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: across the boar. And of course Amazon, you know, being

725
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: such a giant, just like that loss in and of

726
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: itself is a significant flow. By the way, Jeff Bezos

727
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 1: his fortune plunged, the shows you're how insane his net

728
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: worth is. His fortune plunged by more than twenty billion

729
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 1: dollars just Friday, just during that one stock route on Friday.

730
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 1: The big picture here is that you all will be

731
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 1: shocked about. Of course, you've got the ongoing supply chain issues.

732
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: Of course, you have lockdowns in China contributing to concerns.

733
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 1: Of course, you have the war in Ukraine which is

734
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 1: causing all kinds of problems and again fueling those supply

735
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: chain crises. Not to mention increasing issues both with gas

736
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 1: but also with food prices. Then you also have the Fed.

737
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this Wall Street Journal tear

738
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: sheet up on the screen, so they say, here FED

739
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 1: prepares double barreled tightening with bond runoff. What does that mean?

740
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:36,479
Speaker 1: So obviously, with inflation continuing to be high, the FED

741
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: has already hyped interest rates, but only by zero point

742
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: two five percent, so relatively mild. But the ideas they're

743
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: meeting this week, they're likely to do a zero point

744
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: five interest rate hike, and they are also beginning the

745
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: process of unloading all of those assets that they have

746
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: piled up on their balance sheet. Now you don't need

747
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 1: to get into the complicated mechanics of this, however, you

748
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,839
Speaker 1: should just see this as another way that they are

749
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: tightening financial fiscal policy. So, in addition to the interest

750
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: rates increases, which are you know, they're going at a

751
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 1: faster clip now and trying to they're trying to pull

752
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: back consumer demand, you also have selling not they may

753
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: not sell off the assets, they just let them run off,

754
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 1: but unloading these assets that also contributes to fiscal tightening.

755
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: So that's probably the big thing that is causing the

756
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: markets to be spooked right now and Sagas we've covered

757
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 1: here before, it is significantly dangerous because we are in

758
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 1: uncharted waters with regard to the massive amounts of assets

759
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: that the FED has piled up on their balance sheet,

760
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: and even the experts don't really know what the impact

761
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 1: is going to be of allowing these assets to run off.

762
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 1: They are also indicating they may even be so aggressive

763
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: as some of the assets to actually sell, which they

764
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 1: have never don before. They didn't do that even in

765
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: the brief period when they let some of the assets

766
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: run off before, So they don't know precisely what this

767
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: is going to do for the economy. So that means

768
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: that there is a big risk that instead of the

769
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: soft landing quote unquote that they want to be able

770
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 1: to engineer, that they're going to trigger a massive crash. Why,

771
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: because these assets are massively overinflated. I mean there's huge

772
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: asset bubbles, appears that the stock mark continues even after

773
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: these declines to be hugely overvalued. So you have a

774
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: very very risky situation ultimately. And the last thing I'll

775
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 1: say about this, which I thought David Dahan said quite well,

776
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 1: is basically, like you have a supply chain crisis that

777
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: is fueling inflation. What does the FED increasing interest rates

778
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 1: and curbing demand have to do with that? Whatsoever? Like

779
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: that doesn't ultimately solve the problem. It's a very blunt tool.

780
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 1: It's effectively the only tools that the FED has, And

781
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 1: since everything else in this town is dysfunctional, that's basically

782
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: what we have to rely on. And that's a very

783
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: risky gamba. Yeah, there's only one organization in America that

784
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: could fix this supply chain crisis is called Congress, and

785
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: it would have to have a massive industrial project over

786
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: the next five years to both set investor expectations and

787
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: also fix the structural problems in our economy. Absent that,

788
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: not much you can do. And you know in this

789
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: article they say that Jerome Powell was quoted in March

790
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 1: saying that this is equivalent to an additional quarter point

791
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 1: bump in the interest rate, which again, you know, you

792
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 1: should all be very concerned about. I think the part

793
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 1: here which does concern me, and I don't want to

794
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: get too much into the weeds, but basically, instead of

795
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: both a passive runoff, there is a consideration of actively

796
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: selling mortgage bonds on the open market. Now, what that

797
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: would be is it would actually raise the mortgage rates

798
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: and borrowers would be less likely to refinance into a

799
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: new loan. Thus they would be slower to mature, So

800
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 1: it would be in effect an ability in order to

801
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 1: push the mortgage rates even higher than they currently are. Now.

802
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: My concern on that would be, Look, I think that

803
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,239
Speaker 1: the mortgage rate already has risen more than any time

804
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: in modern American history. That's kind of nuts. We went

805
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: from two percent to five percent in the span of

806
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: a single year. Now that's obviously going to slow down

807
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: the market. Let's say mortgage rates get up to like

808
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: seven percent. Now you're in a situation where you're actually

809
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: gonna be increasing a rent crunch because people who were

810
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 1: gonna buy are not gonna borrow at a seven percent

811
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: interest rate. Well, guess what, guys, We already have a

812
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: twenty one percent inflation when it comes to rent in

813
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: a single year. I was talking with some people who

814
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: were in Idaho and in Arizona. Both of those places

815
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: are seeing double digit, like forty percent rent increase in

816
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: some areas because of the runoff from California Austin. I

817
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: got friends moving to Austin very soon. The rent increase

818
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 1: and mortgaging increase in price. There is out is in

819
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: a world that you cannot even conceive of. In terms

820
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: of houses there we're already selling three hundred thousand over

821
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 1: asking price. Now I'm not saying that that's a good thing,

822
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: but we could be obviously in a situation of overcorrecting.

823
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 1: And with all of these blunt tools, and especially with

824
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: our financialized economy, you have no idea how this is

825
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: going to play out. And what do we always warn people?

826
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: You may not make money on the way up, but

827
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 1: you're going to lose money on the way down. You're

828
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: going to be because if there is a crunch, that

829
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 1: means that you know, it's harder to make payroll, it's

830
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: harder for businesses to take out loans, means more firings

831
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 1: means you know, more macroeconomic conditions that make unemployment more desirable,

832
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 1: which literally, you know this quiet part out loud when

833
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: they say they want the economy to tighten or to

834
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 1: slow down, is they want higher unemployment. Because unemployment right

835
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: now is like three point nine percent, so they want

836
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 1: that's a real disaster for a lot of people who

837
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 1: are out there. That's that's it, Like what the FED

838
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: can do is basically make it so you have access

839
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 1: to less money. I mean, that's that's when we use

840
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 1: also have fiscal tightening and all this. That's what it

841
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 1: actually is. A euphemism, that's what it actually means, and

842
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: so it's effectively the of course, you know, inflation is

843
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 1: a massive problem. I mean, inflation at the level we

844
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 1: have right now means that workers are taking a pay

845
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,399
Speaker 1: cut every single month, like their wages are going down

846
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: every single month. And obviously that cannot persist. But when

847
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: we just rely on the FED. That's how we got

848
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: into this problem to start with, is that we have

849
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 1: overreliance on the FED, and so we leaned on them

850
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: to basically backstop the entire economy and buy the entire economy,

851
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 1: I mean the entire Wall Street economy, because that's all

852
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 1: they can really do. We found some novel and creative

853
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: approaches which we can, you know, debate with an expert

854
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: on another day what might actually be at their disposal,

855
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 1: but in terms of the tools that they think are

856
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: available to them, that's all they can do. And so

857
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: when you over rely on the FED, they can shoot

858
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: trillions of dollars at Wall Street. They can make sure

859
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: that you know, the stock market is completely buoyed, they

860
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: can make sure the bond market this time is also

861
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 1: completely supported and risk free. Can they actually fix the

862
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: real economy and iron out these issues with the supplishing No,

863
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: And so you have a terrible potential scenario where they

864
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: are acting to slow the economy and make sure you

865
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 1: have less money in your pocket to you know, available

866
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: and access to in order to spend. But the inflation,

867
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: the thing that are causing inflation, don't actually abate, so

868
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 1: you continue to have these high levels of inflation even

869
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 1: as you're triggering a recession. I mean, that's a very

870
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 1: real possibility that's on the table. And again, because we've

871
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: never quite faced this exact scenario with combination of you know,

872
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: interest rates hikes plus runoff of the assets on the

873
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: balance sheet, plus potentially even selling off some of the

874
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: assets on the balance sheet, we really there is no

875
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 1: one who knows exactly what that is going to mean

876
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: ultimately for the economy. So yeah, they may say it's

877
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: probably equivalent to another quarter point increase. Might be true,

878
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 1: it might be less than that, it might be more

879
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: than that. These are all like educated guesses as to

880
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 1: what it's actually going to mean for the economy. There

881
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: was one other piece here that I wanted to share

882
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:52,240
Speaker 1: with you. So there's an analyst, another analyst who's predicting

883
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 1: a massive stock market crash. Let's go ahead and put

884
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 1: this inside or tear sheet up on the screen. They say,

885
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: a notorious market bear who called the dot com bubble

886
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: warrns there's a strong possibility of a fifty to seventy

887
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: percent crash ahead and breaks down why stocks are primed

888
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:11,319
Speaker 1: for a decade of dismal returns. Now, let me say

889
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: this guy. His name is John Hussman. He's a president

890
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 1: of Hussman Investment Trust, and he is a little bit

891
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: of a perma bear, and he has been predicting a

892
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 1: crash for a while now and obviously hasn't come to fruition. However,

893
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 1: on certain his track record outside of that is actually

894
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: very good. He predicted in March of two thousand that

895
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,240
Speaker 1: tech stocks would plunge eighty three percent, and lo and behold,

896
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: the Nastak index lost exactly eighty three percent during a

897
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 1: VERI from two thousand and two thousand and two, so

898
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: we kind of nailed that one. He predicted in two

899
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: thousand that the S and P would likely see negative

900
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: total returns of the falling decade, and then it did.

901
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: He also predicted in April two thousand and seven that

902
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: that SNP five hundred could lose forty percent, and then

903
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 1: it proceeded to lose fifty five percent in the subsequent collapse,

904
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: So he does have some record of correctly calling crashes

905
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: in the past. He looks at, you know, whether markets,

906
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 1: based on his calculations are overvalued, and he effectively looks

907
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,839
Speaker 1: at the markets even after these declines and says they're

908
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 1: still massively overvalued. And the real key here, I'll just

909
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 1: read what he says. He says the main thing that

910
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 1: determines whether an overvalued market continues to advance or drops

911
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: like a rock instead is whether investor psychology is inclined

912
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 1: towards speculation or risk aversion. When investors are inclined to speculate,

913
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: they tend to be indiscriminate about it. When investors become

914
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 1: risk averse, they tend to be skittish and selective. Such

915
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: sentiment is already here. According to one weekly survey of investors,

916
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 1: sentiment is at its lowest point since two thousand nine.

917
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 1: It's kind of a funny thing to measure sentiment. But

918
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 1: that's the you know, that's what he thinks. He's issuing

919
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,439
Speaker 1: this dire warning about what could be coming next. Yeah,

920
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: I think that in general, everyone should be very on

921
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: the watch. You know, the S and P five hundred

922
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 1: is down I think fourteen percent year over year, which

923
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: is not obviously the norm. We've had a decade of

924
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: mega growth and actually in Silicon Valley, you know, I

925
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 1: think I've referenced this previously. I spoke with David Sachs,

926
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 1: he's a venture capitalist. He was saying, in some of

927
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: the private markets, you have VC valuations dropping down by

928
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 1: seventy something percent, which is that has a major ripple

929
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: effect on capital in the private markets, which then obviously

930
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: is going to bleed into the public. So if the

931
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: publics are down this much, imagine what private valuations. And

932
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: remember people take meat huge loans and margins based upon

933
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,919
Speaker 1: the valuations of their business. This also impacts the type

934
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: of technology and other stuff that gets invested in in

935
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 1: the middle of a bear market. So it's very possible

936
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 1: after a decade of growth that we could be entering

937
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: a decade of a decline. And you know, my biggest

938
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: fear is a true return to the nineteen seventies, which

939
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,840
Speaker 1: is if they tighten and we still have high inflation

940
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 1: by the supply chain crisis and we have high unemployment,

941
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: you have straight up stagflation all over again. Not to

942
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: mention a gas crisis. It's like you can't make it

943
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:03,759
Speaker 1: up in terms of how it just so that situation

944
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 1: was so traumatic for an entire generation of people. It

945
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: impacted fiscal policy for two decades. We could be back

946
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: in that situation again. Yeah, it was so dire because

947
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 1: now Paul Volker, who was the Chairman of the FED

948
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: then and who you know, just decided like, I'm just

949
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: going to lift interest rates until inflation stops. And he

950
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 1: did that and it was extremely painful, and I feel

951
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 1: like some of that pain gets lost in the telling

952
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 1: of yamber so narrative. But it was so bad. You had,

953
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 1: you know, farmers who were going bankrupt, who literally, like

954
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,720
Speaker 1: you know, drove their tractors up to the Federal Reserve building.

955
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 1: It was It was an intense period of financial and

956
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: economic pain that was far from just confined to Wall Street.

957
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: So that's why we're kind of trying to stay on

958
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 1: top of, you know, what the FED is doing, what

959
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 1: it means how investors are reacting, because I think it's

960
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 1: undeniable that, you know, the markets have been dramatically overvalued,

961
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: They've been pumped up by the FED, and you know

962
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: their backstopping of the entire thing, and so the question

963
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 1: is just, you know, is the music going to stop

964
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 1: and the whole thing collapse or will they be able

965
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: to actually engineer this soft landing that they are trying

966
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 1: to pull off in very difficult circumstances. Good morning, everybody,

967
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,439
Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

968
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal? Indeed, we do lots of

969
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 1: big stories to get to. First of all, Pelosi and

970
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: a congressional delegation making an unannounced visit to KEIV. We'll

971
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: give you those details, as well as some big spending.

972
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 1: The Biden administration is proposing to continue funneling weapons into

973
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 1: that country, nom Chomsky giving credit to a very very

974
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: unexpected person. So we will play that for you, and

975
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: we will also react White House Correspondence Dinner aka NERD

976
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 1: prom over the weekend. We have all the cringe for

977
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: you to save you the trouble of having to watch

978
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: it all for yourself. Also, the stock market I don't

979
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 1: know if you've been paying. Tension has been kind of

980
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: falling all over the place lately. So we'll talk to

981
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,240
Speaker 1: you about what's going on there, what the Fed moves

982
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 1: are likely to be. This week, they are meeting once again,

983
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: so that's very significant for all of us, not just

984
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 1: people who havepen to have money in the stock market.

985
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 1: Elon Musk giving some medical advice very much upsetting a

986
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 1: large group of people. Yeah, break that down for you,

987
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 1: and we also have to share with you CNN attempting

988
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 1: a little bit of self reflection, right, doesn't get too far,

989
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: but a little bit of self reflection, so enjoyable. Also,

990
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: welcoming back to the show for ess Or Richard Wolf.

991
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 1: He's also going to talk about the economy. We had

992
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 1: that surprise drop in GDP last week, so we're excited

993
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 1: to talk to him about that. But we wanted to

994
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: start with Pelosi and that trip to Kiev. Yeah, the

995
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:43,439
Speaker 1: Pelosi trip is basically the highest ranking US official, number

996
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 1: three in line to the presidency, who is visiting Kiev.

997
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. So Speaker

998
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 1: Pelosi met with President Zelenski and his team, bringing along

999
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 1: an additional delegation, including Adam Schiff, of all people on

1000
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,800
Speaker 1: the ground, which makes sense giving these the chief russiagator

1001
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 1: in all of Congress, but the top level of US

1002
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 1: congressional delegation. There. Pelosi praised the quote ferocity and the

1003
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 1: resolve of the Ukrainians in their face to face meeting,

1004
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: and more importantly, here's what she says in terms of

1005
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,360
Speaker 1: a commitment of US policy from the branch of Congress. Quote,

1006
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: our commitment is to be there for you until the

1007
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 1: fight is done. Quote. We are on a frontier of freedom.

1008
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 1: Your fight is a fight for everyone. Thank you for

1009
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,840
Speaker 1: your fight for freedom. You all are welcome, Zelenska apparently

1010
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 1: told the delegation. So yeah, I'm not sure what else

1011
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: you would say, but I think that it is a

1012
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 1: important declaration because we've pointed as much as we can

1013
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 1: to The President obviously has mostly unilateral action, but he

1014
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 1: still has to submit these funding requests and more to Congress.

1015
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: And it just goes to show you the immense bipartisan

1016
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 1: support both in the Speaker and Leader McConnell and others

1017
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,720
Speaker 1: that they have not only for the Biden administration policy

1018
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,280
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, but if anything, they want a more hawkish

1019
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 1: policy Crystal. Correct. Yeah, so this delegation happened to be

1020
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: all Democrats. You accurately point out most of the sentiment

1021
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 1: around Ukraine has been wholly bipartisan, with very very very

1022
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 1: few dissenting voices or even voices just saying like, hey,

1023
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 1: let's slow down and think about what we're doing here

1024
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 1: for a minute. Ilan Omar famously, you know, said why

1025
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 1: don't we slow down and think about some of these

1026
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: sanctions and everything that we're doing, and so indiscriminate, and

1027
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 1: was completely completely smeared for having the audacity to do

1028
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 1: such a thing. To your point about how you know,

1029
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 1: a lot of members of Congress went even more than

1030
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 1: what the Biden administration has done. You had Democrat Representative

1031
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 1: Jason Crowe of Colorado, a veteran and a member of

1032
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 1: the House Intelligence Arm Services Committee, saying that he went

1033
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 1: to Ukraine with three areas of focus weapons, weapons and weapons.

1034
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 1: I think it also bears pointing out that even though yes,

1035
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 1: the fight has largely moved to eastern Ukraine, making Kiev

1036
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 1: more safe, this is still not without risk. So the

1037
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 1: UN Secretary General recently met with Zelenski in Kiev just

1038
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 1: last Thursday and a missile strike rained down on the

1039
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 1: Capitol early an hour after their joint press conference, So

1040
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: probably Russia trying to send a you know, kind of

1041
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 1: a middle finger there. But again just to point out

1042
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: that these trips into an active war zone still not

1043
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: without risk, and in my opinion, you know, rather ill advised,

1044
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 1: continuing to be rather ill advised, given the fact that

1045
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 1: you know, if you had a member of Congress who

1046
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: was injured in attack, if something God forbid were to happen,

1047
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 1: what that would mean in terms of an escalation is

1048
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 1: is very clear. I mean, it would be a complete disaster.

1049
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: You'd be facing a hot war directly with Russia and

1050
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 1: likely you know, nuclear attacks and all of that entails.

1051
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 1: So I continue to think that these missions to demonstrate

1052
00:54:40,560 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 1: our solidarity and that we're really with their cause are

1053
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 1: rather ill advised. Yeah, and I think that there's you know,

1054
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: it really bears with peopople will say, well, oh well

1055
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 1: Churchill visited, you know, the French in the middle of

1056
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,399
Speaker 1: the Battle of France. Yeah, the UK was at war

1057
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,720
Speaker 1: with Nazi Germany. Right, We're in hot at war with Russia.

1058
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 1: So by going into an active and a hot war zone,

1059
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,719
Speaker 1: you're putting the United States its policy at risk, as

1060
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,279
Speaker 1: much as a nice show of support might mean. I

1061
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,240
Speaker 1: don't know why I can't meet in a more neutral country,

1062
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,720
Speaker 1: like right across the border, in a NATO country. Actually

1063
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: it would be probably far more advisable. But all of

1064
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: this is on the heels of and let's put this

1065
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,720
Speaker 1: up there on the screen, Joe Biden now asking Congress

1066
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:20,280
Speaker 1: for thirty three billion dollars more in additional aid to Ukraine.

1067
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 1: As they even describe it here in the Western press,

1068
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,319
Speaker 1: a quote dramatic escalation of US funding for the US

1069
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 1: war with Russia, for the war with Russia, and the

1070
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: Ukrainian president is pleading with lawmakers to give it a

1071
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,280
Speaker 1: swift approval. So here's what it says. Twenty billion dollars

1072
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 1: for weapons, ammunition and other military assistance, eight point five

1073
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: billion in direct economic assistance to the other Ukrainian government,

1074
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 1: and then three billion dollars in humanitarian aid. And it

1075
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: always makes me sad whenever I read these appropriations, and

1076
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 1: I just look at twenty billions in weapons and AMMO.

1077
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the Ukrainians don't need weapons, namo, but

1078
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,319
Speaker 1: we have somewhat five million or so displaced people. We

1079
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 1: need to be actually probably spending a hell of a

1080
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 1: lot more on the humanitarian response in order to make

1081
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,800
Speaker 1: sure that these people are taken care of. NATO obviously

1082
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: stepped up, and so has the European Union. But always,

1083
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 1: you know, everybody says like, show me what your priorities

1084
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 1: are by pointing to what you actually fund, And right

1085
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 1: now the funds are all towards the war with Russia

1086
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 1: and specifically on the behalf of the Ukrainian military to

1087
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 1: wage war on that military. I'm not saying that isn't

1088
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 1: obviously a priority, but it just shows you that we

1089
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 1: have no real hope for anything else within the conflict,

1090
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: and no strategy to try and bring this thing to

1091
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:31,719
Speaker 1: an end and find piece. Well, that's it. We know

1092
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 1: what the macro strategy is because they've said what the

1093
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 1: macro strategy is. It isn't to negotiate a piece. It

1094
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:39,359
Speaker 1: isn't to try to provide Russia with an off ramp

1095
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: and bring them to the table. Not at all. I mean,

1096
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 1: they've now explicitly stated what people at the beginning would

1097
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 1: have been accused of being, like, you know, pro Russia

1098
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: and conspiracy theorists, et cetera. If they came out and said, no,

1099
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 1: we think the US policy is actually to we can

1100
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 1: and ultimately try to push Putin out of power. Well,

1101
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,760
Speaker 1: now that's effectively the stated policy of the United States,

1102
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 1: and so this massive increase in weapons funding for Ukraine

1103
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 1: should be seen as part of that strategy. You know,

1104
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 1: when they want to keep Russia tied up in Ukraine forever,

1105
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 1: that's not good for the world, it's not good ultimately

1106
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: for Ukraine. And so that's how you should view this policy.

1107
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 1: And you know, we throw these big numbers around here,

1108
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 1: it can sort of like be hard to wrap your

1109
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 1: head around how much money exactly this is. But this

1110
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 1: full package, just this piece of it represents twenty percent

1111
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 1: of Ukraine's entire GDP. Okay, so that's that's the size

1112
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: and the scope of what we're ultimately contemplating here. Again

1113
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 1: with you know, I would expect that this will likely

1114
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 1: sail through the only potential legislative hiccup as Democrats are

1115
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: considered considering tying it to COVID eight, in which case

1116
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: then they're Republicans exactly. Then the Republicans will be like,

1117
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to do COVID AD too,

1118
00:57:52,320 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 1: But in terms of this specific package, I think as

1119
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: overwhelming by partisan support you're likely to see I mean,

1120
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: you may not see a single voice speak up against

1121
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:03,440
Speaker 1: it or even offer a word of caution about what

1122
00:58:03,560 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 1: exactly our policy is and what exactly we're doing here. Yeah,

1123
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 1: I think that's really really well said. And if you

1124
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 1: want to know the other insanity in Congress, this is

1125
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 1: the poll of power, which gets no scrutiny by the press.

1126
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 1: Put this up there on the screen, Representative Adam Kissinger

1127
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 1: saying words matter, but so do our actions. I'm introducing

1128
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 1: an authorization of use of military force as a clear

1129
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 1: red line so that POTUS can take appropriate action if

1130
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. We must stand

1131
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 1: for humanity and we must stand with our ally. So

1132
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 1: what he's saying is that Representative Kissinger wants to create

1133
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: an authorization for the use of military force for the

1134
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: US to be explicitly allowed by Congress in order to

1135
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: declare war on Russia if it uses biological chemical weapons

1136
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:49,080
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Now that seems completely nuts. I'm not saying

1137
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 1: that that wouldn't be a horrific act, but should that

1138
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 1: trigger a potential nuclear war with Russia? That's a representative,

1139
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: Kissinger is saying. I mean, this is somebody who has

1140
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 1: pushed the no fly zone and more. Look, fo fly

1141
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 1: zone is off the table for now, but don't sleep

1142
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 1: on these efforts because the media is not looking at

1143
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 1: this and reporting it with the level of scrutiny that

1144
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: it really deserves. Same with the Pelosi trip. I mean,

1145
00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 1: it's like it's just a foregone conclusion that the number

1146
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 1: three in line to the presidency is going to just

1147
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 1: waltz into an active war zone. And to put it

1148
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 1: in perspective for everybody, I really think that we need

1149
00:59:21,640 --> 00:59:22,920
Speaker 1: to look at the level of a that we've been

1150
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 1: given to Ukraine in the context of history. Put this

1151
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: up there on the screen, please, which is that we

1152
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 1: are now providing Ukraine more money than the US has

1153
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 1: sent all but four countries in total since nineteen forty six.

1154
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 1: So look at this. Wow, Israel one hundred and thirty

1155
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 1: two billion, Afghanistan one hundred and eleven billion, Egypt seventy

1156
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: nine point nine billion, Iraq sixty seven billion. Keep in

1157
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 1: mind Iraq and Afghanistan, you know, we basically ruined, So

1158
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:54,280
Speaker 1: you know that level of aid is not really commiserate

1159
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: withdea domestic is not really commiserate with like our foreign aid.

1160
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 1: That is where Ukraine now ranks on the map more

1161
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 1: than Pakistan, more than Vietnam, more than Jordan, more than Turkey,

1162
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: which is a NATO ally, more than Russia ironically enough,

1163
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 1: and more than India also an Indo pacific ally to

1164
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: the United States. Just consider it within that level of context.

1165
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 1: And we're not saying that the Ukrainians don't deserve help.

1166
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 1: Of course they do. God bless them. Their cause is righteous.

1167
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 1: But when runaway military aid like this happens. We have

1168
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 1: seen this story before with Libya, with Syria and more.

1169
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,440
Speaker 1: When you have just free, like floating weapons all over

1170
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: a war zone, stuff changes hands. I mean, it's conceivable

1171
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 1: to some of this aid will find its way even

1172
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 1: you know, let's say it gets captured by the Russians

1173
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:41,600
Speaker 1: and then they start giving it to Chechens and then

1174
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 1: they start using it elsewhere, either at home or even

1175
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 1: you know, against the Ukrainians, or God forbid, against somebody else.

1176
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 1: It's just always consideration. When you're providing massive amounts of

1177
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 1: military and ammunition into a hot warzone. War's messy, and

1178
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 1: sometimes those weapons go missing as the Pentagon likes to say, well,

1179
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 1: I mean we know that there are French extremist elements

1180
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 1: within the Ukrainian fighting force. I mean we know that, right,

1181
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 1: that's you know. And so we have been to this

1182
01:01:07,680 --> 01:01:11,200
Speaker 1: play before. We've been there in Afghanistan army, the Mujahadeen,

1183
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: We've been over this a million times. I think the

1184
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 1: most important thing is to consider the macro policy and

1185
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 1: the foolishness and ultimately destructiveness of that macro policy of

1186
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 1: saying we don't actually want peace. What we want is

1187
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 1: to keep Russia in a stalemate, to weaken and bleed them,

1188
01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 1: and you know, kill as many Russians in Ukraine as

1189
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: we possibly can in hopes that Putin is put under

1190
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,960
Speaker 1: enough pressure and frankly, that the population of Russia suffers

1191
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:41,919
Speaker 1: enough that they put that pressure onto Putin to remove

1192
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 1: him from power. That's the clear policy of the United States.

1193
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 1: You know, when we talk about regime change, it's not

1194
01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: necessarily like we're going into Russia to invade. No, I

1195
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 1: don't think that is on the table whatsoever. But the

1196
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: idea is the US finds it politically useful to have

1197
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:58,520
Speaker 1: Russia tied up in a long war in Ukraine. Is

1198
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 1: that good for the Ukrainians, asking yourself that ultimately, let's

1199
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 1: go ahead and move on. Then to the next part

1200
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:10,040
Speaker 1: of this, which is how Washington specifically is reacting. So

1201
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: President Biden was actually asked if he was going to

1202
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 1: ask for the end of the filibuster in order for

1203
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:18,320
Speaker 1: the Senate to vote to try and codify Roe versus Wade.

1204
01:02:18,440 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say. I went to philibuster

1205
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 1: to codify Row. I'm not prepared to make those judgments

1206
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: now about but you know, I think the codification a

1207
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 1: Row makes a lot of sense. Look, so part of

1208
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:39,640
Speaker 1: the problem that they have there, Crystal is that, well,

1209
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 1: you know, look, obviously you know philibuster politics and all

1210
01:02:42,280 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 1: that aside in terms of the actual vote count, which

1211
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: we will get to, he did not call for it,

1212
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: and he's actually being pushed more so by the Democrats

1213
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:51,840
Speaker 1: who are in the Senate, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck

1214
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 1: Schumer is actually vowing that they are going to have

1215
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 1: a vote in response to what happened here in order

1216
01:02:56,880 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 1: to get every single Senator on the record, let's take

1217
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 1: a listen to it. Schumer had to say, it is

1218
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 1: our intention for the Senate to hold a vote on

1219
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 1: legislation to codify the right to an abortion in law. Second,

1220
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 1: a vote on this legislation is no longer an abstract exercise.

1221
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 1: This is as urgent and as real as it gets.

1222
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 1: We will vote to protect a woman's right to choose,

1223
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 1: and every American is going to see which side every

1224
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 1: Senator stands on. Third, to the American people, I say this,

1225
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 1: the elections this November will have consequences because the rights

1226
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 1: of one hundred million women are now on the ballot.

1227
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: To help fight this Court's awful decision, I urge every

1228
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 1: American to make their voices heard this week and this year.

1229
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:56,400
Speaker 1: So it's interesting there that he's pledging the vote itself. Now,

1230
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 1: people need to remember this, and I brought it up

1231
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 1: the last time that we were talking about it. In

1232
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: terms of the actual vote, there's very much up in

1233
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,400
Speaker 1: the air, and you rightfully pointed this out, which is

1234
01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:09,280
Speaker 1: that last time around, there was a vote a couple

1235
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 1: of months ago in order to codify Roe versus Wade.

1236
01:04:12,040 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: It did not pass, It did not even come close

1237
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 1: to a majority. However, now that the Republican Senators Murkowski

1238
01:04:19,120 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 1: and Collins who have come out and said that they

1239
01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:25,280
Speaker 1: were misled by Kavanaugh, Like, Okay, everybody, that's a complete joke.

1240
01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: You're you're lying to yourself. You're either if you believe

1241
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 1: that right, they have lied to you, but you also

1242
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 1: relying to yourself. You out you are either dumb or

1243
01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 1: you're a liar. I'm not sure exactly. Let's put this

1244
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 1: up there on the screen in terms of what the

1245
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: two of them have had to say. Susan Collins statement,

1246
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:45,840
Speaker 1: if this is leaked draft opinion with final decision, it

1247
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 1: would be completely inconsistent with Justice Corsi and Kavanaugh said

1248
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: in their hearings, in our meetings in our office. From Murkowski,

1249
01:04:51,040 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 1: she says, quote, my confidence in the court has been

1250
01:04:53,800 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 1: rock now. To be fair, Murkowski did not vote for Kavanaugh,

1251
01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: but I believe she did vote for Justice Gorsi. Collins,

1252
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 1: of course, famously said that she had said that Kavanaugh

1253
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 1: told her it was settled law. By the way I

1254
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:06,959
Speaker 1: asked around, there is a legal rationale for being able

1255
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 1: to say that with that while also overturning the decision.

1256
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 1: But rhetorically, it's very clear that she either didn't want

1257
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 1: to familiarize herself with it, or you know, I guess

1258
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:18,920
Speaker 1: she really deluded herself thinking it wasn't the whole reason

1259
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:20,680
Speaker 1: these guys were put on the court was for this

1260
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 1: exact thing. I mean, this is the whole reason that

1261
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 1: Trump released his list of names. He literally said, when

1262
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 1: I put these people on the court, it will be

1263
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 1: overturned automatic. Actually, I think those the term anti abortion judges,

1264
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:35,120
Speaker 1: which had never been done before. Usually they'd be like,

1265
01:05:35,160 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 1: we're originalists, you know. It's like, yeah, no, he did

1266
01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:41,720
Speaker 1: not wink andnop. He outright said when my people are

1267
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 1: on the court, it will be overturned automatically. So, I mean, listen,

1268
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 1: there's been a multi decade, well funded, extremely well organized,

1269
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 1: extremely disciplined effort to effectuate exactly this outcome, so that

1270
01:05:56,600 --> 01:05:58,920
Speaker 1: you're all shocked and surprised that it happened. Come on,

1271
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,040
Speaker 1: I mean, we showed the poll. The American people were

1272
01:06:01,080 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 1: not shocked and surprised that this happened, and they were

1273
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 1: fully expecting it. So they're ridiculous, is the bottom line.

1274
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:08,320
Speaker 1: And I do want to say also, I mean, I

1275
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 1: think this whole episode shows how not serious about governing

1276
01:06:13,080 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 1: Democrats are. I mean, even with the filbuster politics, Like

1277
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 1: if you actually think that these issues are existential and apocalyptic,

1278
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,120
Speaker 1: and we were heading to Handmaid's tail and all the

1279
01:06:24,440 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 1: you know, all of the rhetoric that they use. Then

1280
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 1: is it really that big of a deal to change

1281
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:32,040
Speaker 1: the rules of the Senate, which you can do with

1282
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: a majority vote. And oh, by the way, this is

1283
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 1: the reason that people elected and voted for you in

1284
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:38,120
Speaker 1: the first place, so they should be helped you account

1285
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: for their failures on this and not just under the

1286
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:42,480
Speaker 1: Biden administration. I'm going to talk more about this in

1287
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:45,520
Speaker 1: my monologue, but while I had a super majority, he

1288
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 1: said this was the first thing he would do on

1289
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,919
Speaker 1: a day one of his presidency as codify ro versus Wade,

1290
01:06:50,120 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: and he didn't do jack. So you know, you can't

1291
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:55,960
Speaker 1: be surprised that the people who were put here to

1292
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 1: overturn abortion ultimately overturned abortion. Well you should, you know,

1293
01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 1: you can feel all kinds of ways about that, but

1294
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 1: you should also be very upset with the people who

1295
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 1: said they were going to protect you from that outcome

1296
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 1: and then they sat around and did nothing and made excuses,

1297
01:07:08,440 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 1: just like they are now. And even the vote in

1298
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 1: the Senate, this is a show they know it's not

1299
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:13,520
Speaker 1: ultimately going to I wanted to put people on the

1300
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:16,880
Speaker 1: record Okay, fine, what is that ultimately going to do nothing?

1301
01:07:16,960 --> 01:07:18,480
Speaker 1: And to that end, let's put this up there on

1302
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 1: the screen specifically about this, which is that they really

1303
01:07:21,640 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 1: do not seem to have the votes. The last time

1304
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:25,760
Speaker 1: the Senate voted on this, it was forty six to

1305
01:07:25,840 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 1: forty eight, but Susan Collins and Murkowski voted against the

1306
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 1: cloture motion. This time around, I guess it's certainly possible

1307
01:07:32,000 --> 01:07:33,959
Speaker 1: that they might be able to, but that obviously also

1308
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 1: doesn't give you the sixty votes that would be needed

1309
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 1: to advance to an actual vote. So in terms of

1310
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:41,800
Speaker 1: what the vote would be on cloture, Senator Joe Manchin

1311
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:43,640
Speaker 1: has already come out and he said that, you know,

1312
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:45,720
Speaker 1: first of all, he's pro life. It's one of the

1313
01:07:45,720 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 1: reasons that he supported these justices, so he would not

1314
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:50,960
Speaker 1: be a vote. You could possibly swap that out with

1315
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:54,280
Speaker 1: Senators Murkowski and Collins, but you know, I went ahead

1316
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:58,040
Speaker 1: and checked Crystal Senator Casey, Bob Casey Pennsylvania, I believe

1317
01:07:58,120 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 1: is the last pro life Democrat. Well, I guess you know, however,

1318
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:06,000
Speaker 1: you couch your mansion, last mainstream pro life democrat who's

1319
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,360
Speaker 1: actually in the Senate, and apparently his father is the

1320
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: person who was involved in the Casey decision of nineteen

1321
01:08:13,120 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 1: ninety two. I didn't know that. Yeah, it's not either.

1322
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 1: I was reading yesterday and I was like, oh, that's

1323
01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 1: the Casey fascinating. So there you go in terms of

1324
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:23,519
Speaker 1: what that means. So the votes itself, you could swap

1325
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:25,960
Speaker 1: out those two, but you would still probably come two

1326
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 1: to fifty. I guess if they did scrap the filibuster,

1327
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 1: though they don't have the votes to scrap the filibuster,

1328
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:34,160
Speaker 1: that that could then theoretically be broken by Kamala Harrison.

1329
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: Of course. You know, the House I believe passed this

1330
01:08:36,400 --> 01:08:38,920
Speaker 1: with two one hundred and eighteen votes. I know there's

1331
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:40,680
Speaker 1: a smattering of Democrats who are in the House, so

1332
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 1: I believe our pro life. So there you go. In

1333
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:46,640
Speaker 1: terms of the votes, they don't have the votes. Procedurally,

1334
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:49,040
Speaker 1: they also don't Also, I think it should be mentioned

1335
01:08:49,040 --> 01:08:52,959
Speaker 1: that the Senators John Thune and others in the Republican

1336
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: leadership were asked if they would overturn the filibuster in

1337
01:08:56,040 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 1: order to try and outright ban abortion nationwide, and they

1338
01:09:00,400 --> 01:09:03,599
Speaker 1: ruled that out. Yeah, well they right, you know, we'll see,

1339
01:09:03,640 --> 01:09:06,960
Speaker 1: we'll see. I don't know. Also as actually you know,

1340
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: just telling you from an internal GOP politics perspective, that's

1341
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 1: going to be the next real knock against McConnell, which

1342
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 1: is they're gonna be like, you guys need to nuke

1343
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:17,640
Speaker 1: the filibuster from the social conservatives and the you know,

1344
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,479
Speaker 1: the social cons Yes, they've just won this. However, they

1345
01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:22,920
Speaker 1: you know, their goal isn't outright ban even though that's

1346
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 1: like thirteen percent or whatever that actually supports something like that. Anyway,

1347
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:29,840
Speaker 1: that very much likely to be in major point of

1348
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:33,360
Speaker 1: contention if Trump does win the election again and there

1349
01:09:33,479 --> 01:09:36,560
Speaker 1: is a majority of Republicans, yeah, they'll be under a

1350
01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:39,080
Speaker 1: lot of part David Shore actually has projected out that

1351
01:09:39,160 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 1: it's with very with them the realm of possibility that Trump,

1352
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:44,640
Speaker 1: if he gets re elected, would have a super majority

1353
01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:47,760
Speaker 1: in the Senate. So then a lot of those guys

1354
01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 1: are really going to be put on the uh, really

1355
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:52,599
Speaker 1: going to be put under the spotlight. They're like, okay,

1356
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:54,680
Speaker 1: you guys have said for decades you support this, Like

1357
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 1: are you going to vote for it or not? So

1358
01:09:56,479 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 1: that'll be a popcorn time. There's a little bit of

1359
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 1: dog that caught the car for the gu people no

1360
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 1: doubt about it. It was better for them politically, which

1361
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 1: again is why they're like, let's talk about the leak

1362
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:08,599
Speaker 1: and not this other thing. When this was hanging out

1363
01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:10,719
Speaker 1: there as a way to motivate there at this time

1364
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 1: it's going to have This time, it's going to you

1365
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:13,600
Speaker 1: got to vote for us, So this time it's going

1366
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 1: to happen. So now they're going to have to they're

1367
01:10:15,920 --> 01:10:17,800
Speaker 1: going to have to deal with that. The last thing

1368
01:10:17,840 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: I want to say about the abortion politics, just on

1369
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 1: a macro level, and again to give you insight into

1370
01:10:23,400 --> 01:10:26,559
Speaker 1: my own philosophy and why even though I you know,

1371
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:29,519
Speaker 1: am broadly pro choice and have always been, it's not

1372
01:10:29,560 --> 01:10:32,720
Speaker 1: at the core of my politics. You know, the overwhelming

1373
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:35,160
Speaker 1: majority of women and their new numbers about this who

1374
01:10:35,439 --> 01:10:38,559
Speaker 1: end up seeking an abortion are low income. And you know,

1375
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:41,800
Speaker 1: it's very clear that the overwhelming reason why women go

1376
01:10:41,880 --> 01:10:44,439
Speaker 1: down this path is because they can't because having a

1377
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:47,520
Speaker 1: family is basically like a luxury good in this society.

1378
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:52,600
Speaker 1: And so if you really care about women's autonomy or

1379
01:10:52,720 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 1: family autonomy in this country, you know, you should focus

1380
01:10:56,600 --> 01:11:00,240
Speaker 1: a lot on making sure people have higher wages, is

1381
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:03,599
Speaker 1: good jobs, unions, those sorts of things, you know, on

1382
01:11:03,640 --> 01:11:05,960
Speaker 1: whichever side of the debate you're on, that would automatically

1383
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:10,000
Speaker 1: lessen abortions by significant degree. And so it was very

1384
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:11,640
Speaker 1: interesting to me, and I put on this tweet that

1385
01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:13,559
Speaker 1: was like pointing out the class dynamics of those basically

1386
01:11:13,640 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 1: saying like, look, if you're a wealthy woman, you've always

1387
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 1: been able to get whatever care, whatever, doctors, whatever you

1388
01:11:19,360 --> 01:11:22,479
Speaker 1: ultimately want. This is really about the autonomy of poor

1389
01:11:22,479 --> 01:11:24,240
Speaker 1: and working class women. It was interesting to me the

1390
01:11:24,360 --> 01:11:27,240
Speaker 1: number of women who rushed in to assure me that

1391
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:29,679
Speaker 1: this was not a class issue, the class had nothing

1392
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:32,040
Speaker 1: to do with it, that it would equally hurt all women,

1393
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 1: because that's a way of sort of shifting the debate

1394
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 1: away from these other material conditions that create this situation

1395
01:11:41,200 --> 01:11:43,599
Speaker 1: that you know, women feel like they have no other

1396
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:47,479
Speaker 1: choice ultimately. So anyway, just something I've been thinking about

1397
01:11:47,520 --> 01:11:49,880
Speaker 1: in terms of the surrounding material conditions and how much

1398
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 1: that matters in terms of it's kind of this like

1399
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:56,679
Speaker 1: market based personal responsibility neoliberal type solution of like we're

1400
01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:58,599
Speaker 1: not going to make it so you can actually have

1401
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:00,760
Speaker 1: a family and afford to support a family, but I

1402
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:02,519
Speaker 1: guess we'll give you this out so we're going to

1403
01:12:02,520 --> 01:12:04,559
Speaker 1: really commit ourselves to that. That is fascinating. I can't

1404
01:12:04,600 --> 01:12:06,600
Speaker 1: believe that anybody would even object to that. That's just

1405
01:12:06,640 --> 01:12:09,320
Speaker 1: like objective. I was a little bit shocked too. Just

1406
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 1: take a look at the people, look at the numbers.

1407
01:12:11,040 --> 01:12:13,400
Speaker 1: It's public record. You can go and see exactly who

1408
01:12:13,439 --> 01:12:15,719
Speaker 1: it is. You know. This also does put Republicans majorly

1409
01:12:15,760 --> 01:12:17,280
Speaker 1: on the spot because a lot of them have said

1410
01:12:17,560 --> 01:12:19,839
Speaker 1: some version of and this is more of an online

1411
01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:23,040
Speaker 1: phenomenon of the most prolite pro life folks. They're like, listen,

1412
01:12:23,120 --> 01:12:26,000
Speaker 1: you know, if it means that we would abolish abortion,

1413
01:12:26,160 --> 01:12:29,080
Speaker 1: then we would support a much more robust welfare state

1414
01:12:29,280 --> 01:12:32,040
Speaker 1: in order to support all these Yeah. Like I said, look,

1415
01:12:32,080 --> 01:12:34,800
Speaker 1: I'm skeptically too. I've you know, I've I've seen I've

1416
01:12:34,840 --> 01:12:38,080
Speaker 1: been hoodwinked enough times in order to remain very very

1417
01:12:38,080 --> 01:12:41,759
Speaker 1: skeptical on this. But if it becomes the case, it's like, okay,

1418
01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 1: well now you're on the spot. You know, are you

1419
01:12:43,600 --> 01:12:45,800
Speaker 1: going to fund you know, adoption clinics? Are you going

1420
01:12:45,880 --> 01:12:48,400
Speaker 1: to fund and make it possible for low income or

1421
01:12:48,439 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 1: single moms or whatever? Probably what they're the most disaportionately.

1422
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:54,240
Speaker 1: I believe poor single moms most likely in order to pursue. Yeah,

1423
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 1: the abortion abortion patient is actually already a mother, so

1424
01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:01,519
Speaker 1: they're you know, very much concerned with the family they

1425
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 1: already have and being able to take care of themselves

1426
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:07,080
Speaker 1: and their their children that they already have. So yeah,

1427
01:13:07,120 --> 01:13:09,760
Speaker 1: so come on, guys, show us like, yeah, we'll see

1428
01:13:09,800 --> 01:13:12,200
Speaker 1: it on board with the child tax credit list. Yes, actually,

1429
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:14,559
Speaker 1: Ross doauthad had. I think he had a column like

1430
01:13:14,680 --> 01:13:16,640
Speaker 1: years ago, maybe like a decade ago. Somebody can go

1431
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:18,760
Speaker 1: and fact check me on this where he wrote he's like, look,

1432
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:22,040
Speaker 1: I'm pro live. I'm absolutely for the overturning of Roe

1433
01:13:22,120 --> 01:13:24,200
Speaker 1: versus way, he said, but I don't believe the Republican

1434
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:26,720
Speaker 1: Party is ready yet for the robust welfare state that

1435
01:13:26,720 --> 01:13:29,200
Speaker 1: it would require and actually get rid of abortion in

1436
01:13:29,240 --> 01:13:31,760
Speaker 1: this country. So as usual, I think people, if they

1437
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:33,920
Speaker 1: want an honest, you know, conservative perspective, they should go

1438
01:13:34,120 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 1: and listen to Ross specifically on this issue, because I

1439
01:13:36,720 --> 01:13:39,200
Speaker 1: think he and a probably growing number but still very

1440
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:41,600
Speaker 1: nascent and small people are going to be pushing that

1441
01:13:41,680 --> 01:13:43,439
Speaker 1: if that were to become the case, and it's a

1442
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:45,479
Speaker 1: very good chance of saying, Okay, show us where your

1443
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:47,720
Speaker 1: money is, like show us do you really believe this,

1444
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:49,679
Speaker 1: because if you do, you're going to have to support

1445
01:13:49,960 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 1: all of these sorts of policies. I remain incredibly skeptical. Yeah,

1446
01:13:53,240 --> 01:13:57,479
Speaker 1: because the reward in the GOP, and perhaps this is

1447
01:13:57,479 --> 01:14:00,200
Speaker 1: a good segue to our next segment, the war than

1448
01:14:00,240 --> 01:14:04,559
Speaker 1: the GOP is not for being unorthodox on economics and

1449
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 1: you know, supporting a robust support system for families and

1450
01:14:08,680 --> 01:14:11,280
Speaker 1: allowing people to have kids not as just a luxury good,

1451
01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:13,640
Speaker 1: or get married not just as a luxury good. The

1452
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:16,240
Speaker 1: rewards all come from like being the most obnoxious person

1453
01:14:16,320 --> 01:14:20,280
Speaker 1: possible on the culture wars. Yeah, so jd Vance winning

1454
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:23,240
Speaker 1: the Ohio GOP Senate primary. Let's put this up there

1455
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:26,320
Speaker 1: on the screen. He won with thirty three percent of

1456
01:14:26,360 --> 01:14:29,679
Speaker 1: the vote, coming in second. Was interestingly enough, the polling

1457
01:14:29,760 --> 01:14:32,439
Speaker 1: did bear out, Crystal that Dolin figure the kind of

1458
01:14:32,520 --> 01:14:37,240
Speaker 1: not never Trump necessarily, but Trump skeptical, skeptical and critical

1459
01:14:37,479 --> 01:14:39,720
Speaker 1: on the rig election and crap, that was what he

1460
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:42,320
Speaker 1: really did. Yeah, I mean he was a multimillionaire. He

1461
01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:45,799
Speaker 1: spent many, many millions of dollars on the air. Josh

1462
01:14:45,840 --> 01:14:49,320
Speaker 1: Mandel the most cringe character in the history of American politics.

1463
01:14:49,880 --> 01:14:53,000
Speaker 1: Suffered a third place defeat. I think all of America

1464
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:56,080
Speaker 1: canry knight on itself and saying that this clown who

1465
01:14:56,120 --> 01:14:59,679
Speaker 1: spent thirty million dollars and put on a fake Southern

1466
01:14:59,720 --> 01:15:04,679
Speaker 1: axe and losing is an unambiguously good thing. However, there's

1467
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:08,599
Speaker 1: an interesting, really test case here as to what this means. Now,

1468
01:15:08,720 --> 01:15:11,719
Speaker 1: Vance obviously is the favorite in order to win this election.

1469
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:14,760
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan, you know, I hope he can meditate his

1470
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:18,000
Speaker 1: way to the top. Very unlikely, especially in the state

1471
01:15:18,040 --> 01:15:24,120
Speaker 1: of Ohio, right his way to election. Good luck bro

1472
01:15:24,680 --> 01:15:28,519
Speaker 1: whenever it comes to JD. As always personal disclaimer, I've

1473
01:15:28,560 --> 01:15:30,599
Speaker 1: known him for years and he is his friend of mine,

1474
01:15:30,600 --> 01:15:33,280
Speaker 1: so you can always look at my analysis through that,

1475
01:15:33,320 --> 01:15:35,000
Speaker 1: and I think it is always important that people who

1476
01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:37,600
Speaker 1: are in the news say that out right. However, I

1477
01:15:37,600 --> 01:15:40,760
Speaker 1: think it's very interesting here now JD. I think unambiguously

1478
01:15:40,840 --> 01:15:45,280
Speaker 1: ran a very trump Is style campaign. And I'm not

1479
01:15:45,320 --> 01:15:48,320
Speaker 1: talking about that economically. Now, I know JD. I've interviewed

1480
01:15:48,400 --> 01:15:51,160
Speaker 1: him several times on economics. He is about as close

1481
01:15:51,200 --> 01:15:53,679
Speaker 1: to me as any member of the sitting Senate would

1482
01:15:53,720 --> 01:15:57,040
Speaker 1: possibly be. That being said, his campaign was not really

1483
01:15:57,080 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 1: about economics. His campaign was about immigration, and it was

1484
01:16:00,160 --> 01:16:02,439
Speaker 1: about the Culture War. Immigration was his number one issue

1485
01:16:02,800 --> 01:16:05,919
Speaker 1: on this and on the Culture War specifically, he positioned

1486
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:09,320
Speaker 1: himself as probably one of the most trumpet style candidates

1487
01:16:09,360 --> 01:16:11,000
Speaker 1: who was there. And I do hones to say, I

1488
01:16:11,040 --> 01:16:13,639
Speaker 1: do think that is authentically kind of where he is

1489
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:17,040
Speaker 1: right now, because there's some skepticism around whether he's playing

1490
01:16:17,120 --> 01:16:19,519
Speaker 1: or acting. I can tell you through my personal interaction

1491
01:16:19,600 --> 01:16:22,759
Speaker 1: with him, I do believe that this is authentic. Now

1492
01:16:23,040 --> 01:16:26,479
Speaker 1: that being said, it translates to how is JD going

1493
01:16:26,560 --> 01:16:28,679
Speaker 1: to be whenever it comes to Congress? And for that

1494
01:16:29,120 --> 01:16:31,240
Speaker 1: it's interesting to look at the people who spent all

1495
01:16:31,280 --> 01:16:33,640
Speaker 1: this money against him. Crystal. We talked about how the

1496
01:16:33,680 --> 01:16:38,760
Speaker 1: Club for Growth came and attacked JD. Evans, spending millions

1497
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:41,719
Speaker 1: of dollars in order to try and destroy him. Now

1498
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:45,040
Speaker 1: it's fascinating that they were willing to do so because

1499
01:16:45,120 --> 01:16:48,479
Speaker 1: if you look at JD and Josh Mandel and Mike

1500
01:16:48,520 --> 01:16:51,920
Speaker 1: Gibbons and the others, none of them really differ on

1501
01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: the cultural front. So clearly this was about economics, or

1502
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:58,240
Speaker 1: at the very least it was about fiscal policy. They

1503
01:16:58,280 --> 01:17:01,040
Speaker 1: saw JD very much, You know, a character who kind

1504
01:17:01,040 --> 01:17:04,679
Speaker 1: of is against the economic orthodoxy of the Republican Party,

1505
01:17:04,800 --> 01:17:07,280
Speaker 1: and they were willing to spend many, many, many millions

1506
01:17:07,280 --> 01:17:09,479
Speaker 1: of dollars to try and hit him. That could be

1507
01:17:09,520 --> 01:17:12,080
Speaker 1: an indication of how JD is going to govern. I

1508
01:17:12,120 --> 01:17:14,680
Speaker 1: can tell you I have no idea. The incentives in

1509
01:17:14,720 --> 01:17:17,200
Speaker 1: Congress are not to where I would like to see

1510
01:17:17,280 --> 01:17:20,320
Speaker 1: JD govern. As a senator, I was telling you before

1511
01:17:20,320 --> 01:17:23,599
Speaker 1: we went on the air, Senator Holly like a week ago,

1512
01:17:24,000 --> 01:17:28,080
Speaker 1: said well, maybe we'll raise corporate taxes, not we will

1513
01:17:28,200 --> 01:17:32,880
Speaker 1: like maybe. The freak out here in Washington and amongst

1514
01:17:32,880 --> 01:17:36,760
Speaker 1: his GOP colleagues and the behind the scenes level was

1515
01:17:37,560 --> 01:17:41,599
Speaker 1: in a way that you can barely comprehend. So it's

1516
01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:44,400
Speaker 1: these stars are not aligned in order to vote in

1517
01:17:44,439 --> 01:17:48,360
Speaker 1: the economically populist direction right the incentives in the GOP

1518
01:17:48,520 --> 01:17:50,800
Speaker 1: and you can see this. You know MTG and Matt

1519
01:17:50,840 --> 01:17:54,160
Speaker 1: Gates flew down to Ohio in order to campaign for

1520
01:17:54,240 --> 01:17:56,479
Speaker 1: JD for a reason, and a lot of MAGA people

1521
01:17:56,520 --> 01:17:59,360
Speaker 1: because they believe he's there with them. On culture, Marjorie

1522
01:17:59,360 --> 01:18:02,360
Speaker 1: Tillergreen doesn't give a goddamn about industrial policy. Okay, let's

1523
01:18:02,360 --> 01:18:05,840
Speaker 1: all be honest about what's going on here. So the

1524
01:18:05,880 --> 01:18:08,360
Speaker 1: incentives in the party and the reason Trump, frankly even

1525
01:18:08,439 --> 01:18:10,559
Speaker 1: endorsed him in the first place, I don't think has

1526
01:18:10,600 --> 01:18:12,240
Speaker 1: anything to do with economics. I think it has to

1527
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:14,280
Speaker 1: do with the fact that Trump likes it. He's famous,

1528
01:18:14,439 --> 01:18:17,160
Speaker 1: and he likes that he's smarter than Josh Mandell. And

1529
01:18:17,280 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 1: you know, JD's willing to basically suppocate himself to Trump

1530
01:18:20,439 --> 01:18:23,040
Speaker 1: and say I'm sorry that I didn't vote or I

1531
01:18:23,040 --> 01:18:25,360
Speaker 1: said I wouldn't vote for you in twenty sixteen. He's

1532
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:27,479
Speaker 1: like he made a mistake, but he's owned up to it.

1533
01:18:28,160 --> 01:18:30,680
Speaker 1: So the real question to me is how does all

1534
01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:34,479
Speaker 1: work in practice? And honestly, I don't know. He's going

1535
01:18:34,520 --> 01:18:36,000
Speaker 1: to have a tough time. I don't think there's any

1536
01:18:36,080 --> 01:18:38,679
Speaker 1: question about it. Like the amount of institutional money which

1537
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:41,760
Speaker 1: is allied against this perspective here makes it so that

1538
01:18:41,760 --> 01:18:44,040
Speaker 1: it's very, very convenient. I mean, you can look no

1539
01:18:44,120 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 1: further than Holly. It's much easier to be the January

1540
01:18:47,200 --> 01:18:49,240
Speaker 1: sixth warrior than it is to be the guy pushing

1541
01:18:49,280 --> 01:18:51,400
Speaker 1: the anti trust bills. Now, can you use one in

1542
01:18:51,479 --> 01:18:53,559
Speaker 1: order to give yourself cover on the other? I don't know.

1543
01:18:53,800 --> 01:18:55,920
Speaker 1: I honestly have no idea how that's going to play out.

1544
01:18:56,200 --> 01:18:57,760
Speaker 1: We'll do our best. I'm going to do my best

1545
01:18:57,760 --> 01:18:59,840
Speaker 1: to try and stay objective here. Yeah. Yeah, I think

1546
01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:03,560
Speaker 1: it's back to be highly skeptical that there will be

1547
01:19:03,680 --> 01:19:07,920
Speaker 1: much break from GOP orthodoxy on economic issues, because look,

1548
01:19:08,040 --> 01:19:11,080
Speaker 1: Holly is the perfect example here. You know, shortly before

1549
01:19:11,160 --> 01:19:13,720
Speaker 1: January sixth to the fifth pumping and going all in

1550
01:19:13,760 --> 01:19:18,320
Speaker 1: on that nonsense, he was working with Bernie on a

1551
01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:21,360
Speaker 1: new round all stimulus checks. What did they didn't get

1552
01:19:21,360 --> 01:19:22,680
Speaker 1: a lot of credit for that point. What did the

1553
01:19:22,680 --> 01:19:25,559
Speaker 1: base rewarding for? Yeah, genuinely, what did the base rewarded for?

1554
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:27,760
Speaker 1: It was for the fifth pump on James raise more

1555
01:19:27,760 --> 01:19:29,680
Speaker 1: money on that than anything he's ever done. So, I

1556
01:19:29,720 --> 01:19:33,360
Speaker 1: mean that tells you everything about the political landscape and

1557
01:19:33,439 --> 01:19:37,800
Speaker 1: the incentives. And you know, I'm I'm especially highly skeptical

1558
01:19:37,840 --> 01:19:41,120
Speaker 1: that someone who didn't run on anything that was economically

1559
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:45,000
Speaker 1: heterodox really from the base, and who focused exclusively in

1560
01:19:45,040 --> 01:19:47,360
Speaker 1: culture war is suddenly going to turn around once they're

1561
01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:51,160
Speaker 1: in office and be different because the reality is, there's

1562
01:19:51,160 --> 01:19:53,960
Speaker 1: always an excuse, there's always an excuse of you don't

1563
01:19:54,040 --> 01:19:57,080
Speaker 1: understand because now I've got to run for reelection, and

1564
01:19:57,400 --> 01:19:58,960
Speaker 1: you know it's already and I've got to be able

1565
01:19:58,960 --> 01:20:01,000
Speaker 1: to raise money, and they're going to after me, and

1566
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:04,280
Speaker 1: there's always an excuse for why you can't do the

1567
01:20:04,400 --> 01:20:08,200
Speaker 1: right thing, and oh, you outsiders just don't ultimately understand. Now.

1568
01:20:08,200 --> 01:20:12,280
Speaker 1: The interesting thing to me also was the way that

1569
01:20:12,479 --> 01:20:16,479
Speaker 1: the media portrayed Vance, Mandel, and Dolan. And actually I

1570
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:18,839
Speaker 1: was just looking at the results on election night. Dolan

1571
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:21,639
Speaker 1: was ahead of Mandel. Now it looks like Mandel may

1572
01:20:21,680 --> 01:20:23,800
Speaker 1: have just eked out ahead of him for second place.

1573
01:20:23,880 --> 01:20:26,479
Speaker 1: I do want to give him his due very close,

1574
01:20:26,520 --> 01:20:33,200
Speaker 1: but anyway, Dolan was considered the moderate candidate, and Mendel

1575
01:20:33,560 --> 01:20:35,800
Speaker 1: was considered like to the right of him and very

1576
01:20:35,800 --> 01:20:38,120
Speaker 1: far right, and Vance was considered the most far right.

1577
01:20:39,280 --> 01:20:42,120
Speaker 1: I mean, the only thing you could really say about

1578
01:20:42,160 --> 01:20:45,240
Speaker 1: them that is different from a policy perspective at this

1579
01:20:45,320 --> 01:20:48,599
Speaker 1: point in terms of how they ran is just what

1580
01:20:48,640 --> 01:20:51,599
Speaker 1: they said about Trump and how they oriented themselves visa

1581
01:20:51,680 --> 01:20:57,920
Speaker 1: the Trump. So not only is the Republican base sort

1582
01:20:57,920 --> 01:21:01,320
Speaker 1: of judging candidates based on their or how loyal they

1583
01:21:01,360 --> 01:21:04,240
Speaker 1: are to Trump, but the media also judges them in

1584
01:21:04,280 --> 01:21:07,280
Speaker 1: that way. The only one of these three that you

1585
01:21:07,400 --> 01:21:10,599
Speaker 1: have any shot. Even if it's a one percent chance

1586
01:21:10,760 --> 01:21:14,600
Speaker 1: of doing something different on economics, like maybe supporting antitrust

1587
01:21:14,840 --> 01:21:18,320
Speaker 1: or supporting some sort of like modest corporate tax hike,

1588
01:21:18,439 --> 01:21:23,559
Speaker 1: or supporting some sort of you know, relatively small child

1589
01:21:23,640 --> 01:21:25,760
Speaker 1: tax g or something like that. The only one of

1590
01:21:25,800 --> 01:21:28,040
Speaker 1: the three that you have any chance of that with

1591
01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:31,360
Speaker 1: is JD. Which is why the Club for Growth spent

1592
01:21:31,479 --> 01:21:34,280
Speaker 1: millions of dollars ultimately against him. They see that there

1593
01:21:34,360 --> 01:21:37,639
Speaker 1: is a somewhat of a possibility that he could buck

1594
01:21:37,680 --> 01:21:39,880
Speaker 1: them on some economic things that are core to their

1595
01:21:40,080 --> 01:21:44,640
Speaker 1: terrible like elite libertarian type policy, pro corporate policy. So

1596
01:21:44,760 --> 01:21:47,800
Speaker 1: when you look at it from that perspective where you

1597
01:21:48,439 --> 01:21:50,840
Speaker 1: lined these guys, where the media ligned these guys up

1598
01:21:50,840 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 1: on the spectrum, really doesn't make any sense, but it

1599
01:21:53,400 --> 01:21:56,960
Speaker 1: tells you everything about the only divide that like matters

1600
01:21:57,320 --> 01:22:01,000
Speaker 1: in BLTWEGH media. It's all about it. I don't know

1601
01:22:01,040 --> 01:22:02,560
Speaker 1: how to tell this story that we're trying to not

1602
01:22:02,640 --> 01:22:05,400
Speaker 1: at all. And it's not just on the Republican side.

1603
01:22:05,479 --> 01:22:08,880
Speaker 1: Like you know, anyone who became an opponent of Trump,

1604
01:22:09,160 --> 01:22:11,839
Speaker 1: no matter what they thought, no matter what wars they supported,

1605
01:22:11,880 --> 01:22:14,200
Speaker 1: no matter how many corporate tax cuts, they're on board

1606
01:22:14,320 --> 01:22:16,960
Speaker 1: no matter what they think about anything. Then you know

1607
01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:18,720
Speaker 1: they're on the correct side and they're put on this

1608
01:22:18,760 --> 01:22:20,840
Speaker 1: side of the political spectrum. And then it's the same

1609
01:22:20,880 --> 01:22:24,120
Speaker 1: thing with the Republican candidates here. It's just all about,

1610
01:22:24,320 --> 01:22:27,160
Speaker 1: you know, how you orient yourself to Trump, and that's

1611
01:22:27,160 --> 01:22:29,120
Speaker 1: how they put you on how far right on the

1612
01:22:29,160 --> 01:22:32,160
Speaker 1: spectrum you are. So it was very revealing in that way.

1613
01:22:32,240 --> 01:22:34,280
Speaker 1: You know, I thought the sound we got from Jordan

1614
01:22:34,360 --> 01:22:35,920
Speaker 1: Chariton when he was on the ground there, from some

1615
01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:37,280
Speaker 1: of the voters who were coming out of a JD.

1616
01:22:37,400 --> 01:22:40,559
Speaker 1: Van's event and explaining why they liked him, I thought

1617
01:22:40,560 --> 01:22:44,360
Speaker 1: it was very instructive that every single one of them

1618
01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:47,280
Speaker 1: basically said, like listen, he owned up to his quote

1619
01:22:47,360 --> 01:22:51,599
Speaker 1: unquote mistake in criticizing Trump. And I do think that

1620
01:22:51,840 --> 01:22:56,600
Speaker 1: with this particular race, probably what happened is there was

1621
01:22:56,640 --> 01:23:01,200
Speaker 1: a natural affinity towards JD. He is from, you know,

1622
01:23:01,240 --> 01:23:04,400
Speaker 1: he has a deep understanding of especially rural Ohio. Actually

1623
01:23:04,479 --> 01:23:06,760
Speaker 1: the area that I used to live in Ohio that's

1624
01:23:06,800 --> 01:23:11,200
Speaker 1: been decimated that is basically Appalachia. So there was kind

1625
01:23:11,200 --> 01:23:13,360
Speaker 1: of a natural affinity towards him. But there were questions

1626
01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:16,000
Speaker 1: about whether this guy's really on our side, and so

1627
01:23:16,080 --> 01:23:19,280
Speaker 1: Trump created a permission structure for people who wanted to

1628
01:23:19,320 --> 01:23:21,240
Speaker 1: vote for JD to go in that direction. Of course,

1629
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:24,240
Speaker 1: he had Peter Teel backing him and providing that support

1630
01:23:24,240 --> 01:23:25,680
Speaker 1: for him to get through the stretch when he was

1631
01:23:25,760 --> 01:23:30,000
Speaker 1: not doing well in this campaign ultimately, and so Trump,

1632
01:23:30,160 --> 01:23:33,280
Speaker 1: no doubt was the kingmaker in this race. I don't

1633
01:23:33,320 --> 01:23:36,080
Speaker 1: think there's any question about it. But you found this

1634
01:23:36,120 --> 01:23:39,000
Speaker 1: Sagaurrich is very interesting. It's not working out quite the

1635
01:23:39,040 --> 01:23:43,200
Speaker 1: same way down in Georgia. And so the Trump effect

1636
01:23:43,240 --> 01:23:46,080
Speaker 1: is a little more complex than the storyline might be

1637
01:23:46,120 --> 01:23:48,400
Speaker 1: coming out of this race in Ohio where he definitely

1638
01:23:48,479 --> 01:23:51,400
Speaker 1: decided like JD's the guy, and then it ultimately happened.

1639
01:23:51,560 --> 01:23:54,320
Speaker 1: Gunn put this tear sheet up on the screen. Right now,

1640
01:23:54,439 --> 01:23:59,959
Speaker 1: Kemp is running away with the nomination in the GOP primary.

1641
01:24:00,160 --> 01:24:05,400
Speaker 1: He's at nearly sixty percent. Purdue is down at twenty

1642
01:24:05,640 --> 01:24:09,280
Speaker 1: one percent. So I mean, he's getting curb stomped right now.

1643
01:24:09,320 --> 01:24:13,400
Speaker 1: And remember Kemp was, you know, not just like has

1644
01:24:13,560 --> 01:24:16,840
Speaker 1: offered some rhetorical pushback to Trump and stop the steal

1645
01:24:16,880 --> 01:24:18,920
Speaker 1: and all this. I mean, he was very strong and

1646
01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 1: saying we're not going down this path. And you know,

1647
01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:24,880
Speaker 1: very clear Trump was over the top and condemning him,

1648
01:24:25,320 --> 01:24:28,679
Speaker 1: and Georgia voters are like, that's nice, but we still

1649
01:24:28,680 --> 01:24:31,439
Speaker 1: prefer this dude over your you know, David Perdue. See.

1650
01:24:31,439 --> 01:24:34,120
Speaker 1: I think this is interesting because everybody's like, oh my god,

1651
01:24:34,160 --> 01:24:37,479
Speaker 1: this shows that the Republicans will just do what Trump wants. Well,

1652
01:24:37,640 --> 01:24:41,000
Speaker 1: Ohio is Trump country. It's a trumpy state, so they're

1653
01:24:41,040 --> 01:24:43,200
Speaker 1: obviously going to be the most loyal to him. But

1654
01:24:43,240 --> 01:24:45,840
Speaker 1: then in Georgia, a state that he lost, well, they're

1655
01:24:45,880 --> 01:24:48,519
Speaker 1: not so trumpy. So it just shows you that there's

1656
01:24:48,600 --> 01:24:52,360
Speaker 1: like a real polarization happening in the Republican party. And actually,

1657
01:24:52,400 --> 01:24:55,639
Speaker 1: they even had an exit poll advanced voters or people

1658
01:24:55,640 --> 01:24:59,400
Speaker 1: who voted in Ohio. Only sixty percent of Ohio GOP

1659
01:24:59,560 --> 01:25:02,040
Speaker 1: primary voter said that they wanted Trump to run again. Now,

1660
01:25:02,080 --> 01:25:04,639
Speaker 1: obviously that's a majority, but it also shows you forty percent.

1661
01:25:04,680 --> 01:25:06,840
Speaker 1: We're like, no, I don't think so. Now, those forty

1662
01:25:06,880 --> 01:25:08,559
Speaker 1: percent will probably all vote for Trump if he did

1663
01:25:08,600 --> 01:25:11,479
Speaker 1: win the nomination. Sure, but it just shows you, you're like, okay,

1664
01:25:11,520 --> 01:25:15,479
Speaker 1: so the enthusiasm isn't that strong even in the state

1665
01:25:15,560 --> 01:25:17,559
Speaker 1: of Ohio. So what I would point to is this,

1666
01:25:17,880 --> 01:25:22,040
Speaker 1: Trump's endorsement matters a ton if you live in Trump Country,

1667
01:25:22,520 --> 01:25:26,680
Speaker 1: if you live in Georgia, or if you live in Arizona,

1668
01:25:27,120 --> 01:25:30,280
Speaker 1: or if you live in I don't know, so any

1669
01:25:30,400 --> 01:25:34,280
Speaker 1: of these other states where Trump himself is not the

1670
01:25:34,400 --> 01:25:38,679
Speaker 1: dynamic like animating figure for Republican politicians, then his endorsement

1671
01:25:38,760 --> 01:25:42,120
Speaker 1: either doesn't matter or it actually could backfire on you.

1672
01:25:42,320 --> 01:25:44,160
Speaker 1: At the very least, it's not enough in order to

1673
01:25:44,160 --> 01:25:46,960
Speaker 1: carry you across the finish line, certainly as evidence by Produce.

1674
01:25:47,000 --> 01:25:48,800
Speaker 1: So it's a way that you need to adjust your

1675
01:25:48,840 --> 01:25:51,320
Speaker 1: thinking when thinking like, oh my god, these Republicans will

1676
01:25:51,320 --> 01:25:53,640
Speaker 1: just vote for whoever Trump says. It's like, well, not necessarily,

1677
01:25:53,680 --> 01:25:56,720
Speaker 1: it's a mixed store. I think it's also I think

1678
01:25:56,720 --> 01:25:59,080
Speaker 1: there are some other factors of play too, So like

1679
01:25:59,479 --> 01:26:02,719
Speaker 1: Joshun Dell was an annoying, terrible candidate who almost gotten

1680
01:26:02,720 --> 01:26:07,080
Speaker 1: a fit site on a debate. So in Georgia you

1681
01:26:07,200 --> 01:26:09,960
Speaker 1: have Kemp, who is an incumbent governor. I mean, also

1682
01:26:10,000 --> 01:26:13,960
Speaker 1: don't downplay the power of incumbency, and people have some

1683
01:26:14,280 --> 01:26:16,720
Speaker 1: experience with him and who he is and what it's

1684
01:26:16,840 --> 01:26:20,080
Speaker 1: like to live in Georgia with him as governor, separate

1685
01:26:20,080 --> 01:26:23,679
Speaker 1: and apart from whatever Trump's opinion is, whereas with the

1686
01:26:24,000 --> 01:26:27,680
Speaker 1: GOP primary field in Ohio it's kind of more unformed.

1687
01:26:27,720 --> 01:26:30,479
Speaker 1: People probably had fewer opinions about the candidates who were

1688
01:26:30,479 --> 01:26:33,320
Speaker 1: in play. So in that kind of a wide open

1689
01:26:33,360 --> 01:26:36,200
Speaker 1: arena where you have no incumbent and where people maybe

1690
01:26:36,280 --> 01:26:38,960
Speaker 1: don't have like fully formed, you know, really strongly held

1691
01:26:39,040 --> 01:26:42,640
Speaker 1: views about the different candidates and it's Trump country, then

1692
01:26:42,680 --> 01:26:44,599
Speaker 1: you throw Trump and in the mix, and yet it's

1693
01:26:44,600 --> 01:26:48,439
Speaker 1: going to be an extraordinarily powerful endorsement, especially when you

1694
01:26:48,439 --> 01:26:50,719
Speaker 1: backed up with you know, Tucker was also very influential

1695
01:26:50,720 --> 01:26:52,400
Speaker 1: in keeping JD on the air and really sort of

1696
01:26:52,439 --> 01:26:56,680
Speaker 1: pumping him up. In terms of the GOP base in Georgia,

1697
01:26:56,800 --> 01:26:59,879
Speaker 1: you know, you've Gottenn incumbent who apparently is still popular

1698
01:27:00,000 --> 01:27:02,800
Speaker 1: among the Republican base. They like I don't you know,

1699
01:27:02,840 --> 01:27:04,639
Speaker 1: I couldn't tell you the specifics of what he's done

1700
01:27:04,640 --> 01:27:07,120
Speaker 1: that people like, but apparently people like more or less

1701
01:27:07,200 --> 01:27:09,639
Speaker 1: what he's done as governor, at least on the Republican side,

1702
01:27:10,000 --> 01:27:12,960
Speaker 1: And so they were able to make an independent judgment,

1703
01:27:13,479 --> 01:27:16,200
Speaker 1: separate and apart from whatever it was that Trump wanted

1704
01:27:16,240 --> 01:27:18,559
Speaker 1: them to do. And you know, in fact, as this

1705
01:27:18,680 --> 01:27:21,559
Speaker 1: race has gone on, Kemp has opened up more of

1706
01:27:21,600 --> 01:27:23,519
Speaker 1: a lead. So now it looks like it won't even

1707
01:27:23,560 --> 01:27:27,120
Speaker 1: go to a runoff very likely. So you know, it's

1708
01:27:27,360 --> 01:27:29,920
Speaker 1: it's fascinating, and I think the bottom line is that

1709
01:27:30,240 --> 01:27:32,799
Speaker 1: the Trump effect is a little more complex than probably

1710
01:27:33,120 --> 01:27:35,760
Speaker 1: the media would ultimately have you believe coming out of

1711
01:27:35,760 --> 01:27:38,160
Speaker 1: the JD. Van story. Absolutely all right. So the other

1712
01:27:38,200 --> 01:27:41,799
Speaker 1: Ohio primary that we were watching was Nina Turner's rematch

1713
01:27:41,840 --> 01:27:45,519
Speaker 1: against Chantel Brown in a redrawn district. Ultimately, Nina not

1714
01:27:45,640 --> 01:27:47,920
Speaker 1: only came up short, but by a significant margin. Let's

1715
01:27:47,960 --> 01:27:50,320
Speaker 1: go ahead and put this tear sheet up on the screen.

1716
01:27:50,640 --> 01:27:54,280
Speaker 1: Chantel Brown wins eleventh district democratic rematch with former Ohio

1717
01:27:54,320 --> 01:27:57,920
Speaker 1: Senator Nina Turner. The margin was about like sixty six

1718
01:27:58,000 --> 01:28:01,120
Speaker 1: percent to thirty three percent. This did not end up

1719
01:28:01,160 --> 01:28:03,360
Speaker 1: being close in the end. Let's go ahead and put

1720
01:28:03,360 --> 01:28:05,360
Speaker 1: this next piece up on the screen, which helps explain

1721
01:28:05,439 --> 01:28:07,400
Speaker 1: a little bit of why it ended up being so

1722
01:28:07,520 --> 01:28:10,200
Speaker 1: lopsided this time when last time Nina only came up

1723
01:28:10,200 --> 01:28:13,000
Speaker 1: short by maybe five points. This is from the intercept

1724
01:28:13,120 --> 01:28:18,040
Speaker 1: and their headline says Progressives massively outgunned ditched Nina Turner,

1725
01:28:18,600 --> 01:28:21,960
Speaker 1: effectively pointing to the fact that, you know, Nina was

1726
01:28:22,080 --> 01:28:27,280
Speaker 1: really abandoned by almost every corner of the progressive sort

1727
01:28:27,280 --> 01:28:32,439
Speaker 1: of elite institutional money and power base. I didn't even

1728
01:28:32,520 --> 01:28:36,920
Speaker 1: realize Justice Democrats did not play in this race. They

1729
01:28:36,960 --> 01:28:40,720
Speaker 1: did not endorse Nina Turner, and their you know, excuse

1730
01:28:40,960 --> 01:28:44,080
Speaker 1: was like, oh, we just didn't have enough money. They said,

1731
01:28:44,160 --> 01:28:46,640
Speaker 1: Nina's a giant in the progressive movement. We're proud to

1732
01:28:46,640 --> 01:28:48,880
Speaker 1: have gone all in for her campaign last year. But

1733
01:28:48,920 --> 01:28:52,320
Speaker 1: the realities, our organization has to be strategic about our priorities.

1734
01:28:52,479 --> 01:28:55,479
Speaker 1: So we're getting massively outgunned by Republican donors funneling millions

1735
01:28:55,479 --> 01:28:59,960
Speaker 1: to super PACs like APAC and DMFI against our existing candidate.

1736
01:29:00,160 --> 01:29:03,200
Speaker 1: So they stayed out entirely. Of course, you guys know,

1737
01:29:03,240 --> 01:29:06,759
Speaker 1: the Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsed Chantell Brown, so they endorsed

1738
01:29:06,800 --> 01:29:10,519
Speaker 1: against Nina. There was a report from Pocan, who's one

1739
01:29:10,560 --> 01:29:12,280
Speaker 1: of the co chairs of the Caucus, that not a

1740
01:29:12,439 --> 01:29:16,719
Speaker 1: single progressive dissented from that vote. There was a report

1741
01:29:16,760 --> 01:29:18,879
Speaker 1: after the fact that maybe that wasn't true, and perhaps

1742
01:29:18,880 --> 01:29:21,080
Speaker 1: Corey Bush did dissent, but in any way, it was

1743
01:29:21,160 --> 01:29:25,160
Speaker 1: overwhelming vote within the Congressional Progressive Caucus for Chantal Brown,

1744
01:29:25,200 --> 01:29:28,320
Speaker 1: the corporate backed candidate. The only one of the squad

1745
01:29:28,600 --> 01:29:31,760
Speaker 1: that ended up endorsing Nina this time was AOC who

1746
01:29:31,760 --> 01:29:36,240
Speaker 1: came in literally twelve hours before voting started. Bertie did

1747
01:29:36,280 --> 01:29:38,360
Speaker 1: come in and endorse her, of course, I mean Nina

1748
01:29:38,360 --> 01:29:41,639
Speaker 1: had been his campaign Coachair would be completely outrageous if

1749
01:29:41,680 --> 01:29:44,840
Speaker 1: he didn't. Ultimately, But so you had this dynamic where

1750
01:29:45,520 --> 01:29:49,080
Speaker 1: not only did these sort of progressive money and elite

1751
01:29:49,160 --> 01:29:52,599
Speaker 1: elected infrastructure completely abandon her, but frankly the progressive base

1752
01:29:52,640 --> 01:29:55,519
Speaker 1: did as well. She didn't raise nearly as much money

1753
01:29:55,560 --> 01:29:58,280
Speaker 1: as the first time around, And I think it's because

1754
01:29:58,320 --> 01:30:02,720
Speaker 1: there's this just like deep anti electoral mihilism that has

1755
01:30:02,720 --> 01:30:05,680
Speaker 1: set in among a lot of the left, which is

1756
01:30:05,720 --> 01:30:08,160
Speaker 1: the greatest gift you could possibly give to people like

1757
01:30:08,280 --> 01:30:11,160
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn. Then on the other side,

1758
01:30:11,479 --> 01:30:14,439
Speaker 1: the you know establishment forces, Oh, they were all in

1759
01:30:14,640 --> 01:30:17,960
Speaker 1: for Chantel Brown. So you had, you know, pack money

1760
01:30:18,200 --> 01:30:21,479
Speaker 1: by the millions flooding in. She Nina has out gone

1761
01:30:21,520 --> 01:30:24,160
Speaker 1: like ten to one in terms of the airwaves. You

1762
01:30:24,240 --> 01:30:27,040
Speaker 1: had Jim Cliburn and Hakeem Jefferies and all of these

1763
01:30:27,120 --> 01:30:31,400
Speaker 1: establishment figures Hillary Clinton endorsed, Joe Biden endorsed, and many

1764
01:30:31,400 --> 01:30:34,040
Speaker 1: figures actually coming into the district a campaign for her.

1765
01:30:34,439 --> 01:30:37,599
Speaker 1: And so you know, they wanted to make damn sure

1766
01:30:37,920 --> 01:30:40,240
Speaker 1: that not only did Nina lose, but frankly, that she

1767
01:30:40,280 --> 01:30:43,120
Speaker 1: would get embarrassed in this race. And I think that's ultimately,

1768
01:30:43,560 --> 01:30:46,640
Speaker 1: you know, how things shook on. It's very instructive. I

1769
01:30:46,640 --> 01:30:49,080
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if in the final weeks of this

1770
01:30:49,160 --> 01:30:52,200
Speaker 1: campaign the polls really moved towards Chantel Brown just because

1771
01:30:52,200 --> 01:30:57,000
Speaker 1: of how much Nina was ultimately outspent on the airwaves

1772
01:30:57,280 --> 01:31:03,360
Speaker 1: from this massive flood of institutionalsport and Jordan Charton was there,

1773
01:31:03,479 --> 01:31:06,439
Speaker 1: you know, covering the race for US and for Status Coup,

1774
01:31:06,560 --> 01:31:09,040
Speaker 1: and he had an interview with Nina after the fact

1775
01:31:09,080 --> 01:31:11,600
Speaker 1: that was rather noteworthy, Nina kind of taking some of

1776
01:31:11,640 --> 01:31:13,360
Speaker 1: the gloves off about how she felt about all of this.

1777
01:31:13,479 --> 01:31:15,519
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to that. Who are the pinos

1778
01:31:15,840 --> 01:31:18,800
Speaker 1: And did the squad and the broader progressive move and

1779
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:20,880
Speaker 1: let you down? I don't want I don't want to

1780
01:31:20,920 --> 01:31:23,320
Speaker 1: get into the squad Okay, some of those women are

1781
01:31:23,360 --> 01:31:30,000
Speaker 1: my friends. Some people were threatened, threatened were threatened like who,

1782
01:31:30,360 --> 01:31:32,280
Speaker 1: and you know, I don't want to get into the threats,

1783
01:31:32,280 --> 01:31:34,559
Speaker 1: but they were threatened. So you know, look, I want

1784
01:31:34,560 --> 01:31:38,479
Speaker 1: to lead them to the side. I will say that

1785
01:31:38,520 --> 01:31:43,360
Speaker 1: the Congressional Progressive Office was wrong. They were wrong, and

1786
01:31:43,439 --> 01:31:46,880
Speaker 1: I was really glad to see Congresswoman Jaya Paul in

1787
01:31:47,000 --> 01:31:50,799
Speaker 1: the Punchbowl article kind of allude to they need to

1788
01:31:50,920 --> 01:31:55,280
Speaker 1: change their the way that they do this that came

1789
01:31:55,280 --> 01:31:58,800
Speaker 1: from the pressure of the movement itself. Let me ask you,

1790
01:31:59,120 --> 01:32:01,920
Speaker 1: would you consider running as an independent rather than in

1791
01:32:01,960 --> 01:32:07,000
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary? If you run, I would consider that absolutely,

1792
01:32:07,040 --> 01:32:12,439
Speaker 1: I would. All options are on the table. So she

1793
01:32:12,520 --> 01:32:15,320
Speaker 1: alluded in her concession speech to maybe she's looking at

1794
01:32:15,320 --> 01:32:18,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. So we'll see what ultimately comes of that.

1795
01:32:18,880 --> 01:32:21,720
Speaker 1: And listen, same caveat you gave her jd I love

1796
01:32:21,800 --> 01:32:26,000
Speaker 1: Nina Dearly. She's a personal friend, longtime personal friend. So

1797
01:32:26,439 --> 01:32:29,120
Speaker 1: just put that all out there. But you know, she

1798
01:32:29,200 --> 01:32:31,040
Speaker 1: doesn't want to speak to ill of the squad, but

1799
01:32:31,120 --> 01:32:33,240
Speaker 1: I'll just say, I mean, these are people, some of

1800
01:32:33,240 --> 01:32:36,080
Speaker 1: whom are supposed to be her personal friend, and I

1801
01:32:36,080 --> 01:32:38,559
Speaker 1: don't care if they threaten you, honestly, you know, like

1802
01:32:39,120 --> 01:32:42,639
Speaker 1: they need to understand these people are not their friends.

1803
01:32:42,680 --> 01:32:45,040
Speaker 1: They are not their allies. They hate you. They will

1804
01:32:45,080 --> 01:32:47,320
Speaker 1: always hate you. They will do everything they can to

1805
01:32:47,439 --> 01:32:49,800
Speaker 1: like stab you in the back and screw you over.

1806
01:32:50,280 --> 01:32:52,519
Speaker 1: But there's something that sets in when they get here

1807
01:32:52,520 --> 01:32:55,120
Speaker 1: in Washington, where it's like every day they're in this town,

1808
01:32:55,560 --> 01:32:58,880
Speaker 1: they just sort of get cozier and cozier and conform

1809
01:32:58,960 --> 01:33:02,120
Speaker 1: more and more to the way things are done here.

1810
01:33:02,240 --> 01:33:06,400
Speaker 1: So it's very sad to see ultimately that Nina, who

1811
01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:09,439
Speaker 1: you know, wherever your politics are, whatever you think about

1812
01:33:09,439 --> 01:33:11,639
Speaker 1: Bernie and whatever you think about Nina, this is someone

1813
01:33:11,720 --> 01:33:15,800
Speaker 1: who was a loyal foot soldier for this movement, was

1814
01:33:15,880 --> 01:33:19,040
Speaker 1: one of the most charismatic and inspiring figures who was

1815
01:33:19,080 --> 01:33:22,000
Speaker 1: out there supporting Bernie before it was cool, who could

1816
01:33:22,080 --> 01:33:24,559
Speaker 1: have gone the path of CosIng up to Hillary Clinton

1817
01:33:24,600 --> 01:33:26,800
Speaker 1: and probably be in the administration right now or I

1818
01:33:26,800 --> 01:33:30,120
Speaker 1: have a show on MSNBC or whatever. And when she

1819
01:33:30,280 --> 01:33:32,640
Speaker 1: stepped out and said, hey, guys, I'm doing this and

1820
01:33:32,680 --> 01:33:35,720
Speaker 1: I need your support, they completely abandon her letter down. Yeah,

1821
01:33:35,760 --> 01:33:38,200
Speaker 1: that's that's I think that is an important part of

1822
01:33:38,200 --> 01:33:41,000
Speaker 1: the story. Yeah, it's pretty shocking, like how badly she

1823
01:33:41,120 --> 01:33:42,760
Speaker 1: lost on this one, but I guess, you know, if

1824
01:33:42,800 --> 01:33:45,759
Speaker 1: you put it within that context, that makes sense. Pretty

1825
01:33:45,760 --> 01:33:48,160
Speaker 1: wild that they, you know, especially if you consider some

1826
01:33:48,200 --> 01:33:50,040
Speaker 1: of your personal friend and you just leave them out

1827
01:33:50,040 --> 01:33:54,760
Speaker 1: to dry like that, that's pretty disgraceful. I listen, I

1828
01:33:54,800 --> 01:33:56,600
Speaker 1: wasn't in their shoes. I don't know what kind of

1829
01:33:56,600 --> 01:33:58,360
Speaker 1: pressure they were put under. I don't know what kind

1830
01:33:58,400 --> 01:34:00,679
Speaker 1: of threats were made. But I would like to think

1831
01:34:01,320 --> 01:34:04,920
Speaker 1: that if it was my personal friends and those were

1832
01:34:04,960 --> 01:34:09,120
Speaker 1: the choices, that I would stand with my person instead

1833
01:34:09,160 --> 01:34:14,920
Speaker 1: of these disgusting, bought out, manipulative ghouls in this town.

1834
01:34:15,040 --> 01:34:16,320
Speaker 1: But that's just me