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Speaker 1: What two three Brits and the middle of the family

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Speaker 1: is Hello, fuckball.

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Speaker 2: In the one yard line? How about that?

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kabash Man. We are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 2: Network NFL podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs. Oh boy, it is finally the week

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Speaker 2: of the Super Bowl. We've got two shows for you

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Speaker 2: this week. This episode, we're going to look at Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl props. Next episode, Chris Raybond and I will break

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Speaker 2: down the Super Bowl from a sports betting and daily

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Speaker 2: fantasy perspective. Be sure to check out that future episode.

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Speaker 2: But let's get into this episode, which by the way,

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Speaker 2: is sponsored by Audible and Mac Weldon. It is one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite times of the year. It is Propa

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Speaker 2: Palooza joined me to break down his favorite props for

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Speaker 2: the Big Game. Is the props master himself, Sean Corner,

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Speaker 2: the director of Predictive Analytics at the Action Network, in

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Speaker 2: one of the top end season fantasy pros rankers for

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Speaker 2: the past half decade. Sean, how is it going? Are

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Speaker 2: you ready to talk about some props?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Super excited for this pod. Yeah?

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Speaker 2: This is uh, this is sort of like. It's a

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Speaker 2: nice bookend to the pod we had at the beginning

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Speaker 2: of the season in which we looked at the season

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Speaker 2: long props, which ended up going really well.

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Speaker 1: Yes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and just so you know, I still have the

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Speaker 3: squeaky chair that made appearances in the preseason. I've been

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Speaker 3: pretty good with it during the season, but you might

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Speaker 3: hear it squeaking. Yeah, I'm super excited for these player props.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the squeaky chair is a strong index of how

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Speaker 2: excited Sean is about whatever he's talking about at the moment.

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Speaker 1: It's probably going to retire after the season, but just

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Speaker 1: want to let you know if you hear it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, we've got some props to get through. On

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Speaker 2: which topic, I should mention that in the Action Network app,

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Speaker 2: we have some Super Bowl prop contest which are free

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Speaker 2: to participate in with thousands of dollars in prizes paid

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Speaker 2: out to multiple winners. To get in the contest, go

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Speaker 2: to my Action Dot app Slash Pod Contest forty five.

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Speaker 2: That is my Action Dot app Slash Pod Contest forty five.

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Speaker 2: And of course you can follow Sean in the Action

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Speaker 2: Network app at the Underscore Odds Maker and you can

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Speaker 2: use the app to get real time NFL odds and

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Speaker 2: to track your bets. Sean, let's get into it. What

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Speaker 2: are some of the player props that have caught your eye?

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Speaker 1: So let's start with quarterback. QB is kind of tricky.

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Speaker 3: A lot of times the passing yards are fairly close,

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Speaker 3: and you know, there's such a large standard error when

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Speaker 3: it comes to passing yards. So you know, with Jared

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Speaker 3: Goff at two eighty five, Tom Brady at two ninety five,

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Speaker 3: in most books, I'm passing on those, no pun intended.

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Speaker 3: But I have found a prop that I do like,

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Speaker 3: and that's Jared Goff's rushing yards. There's actually quite a

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Speaker 3: few books that have at eight and a half minus

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Speaker 3: one ten both ways, and I I'm hammering the under

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Speaker 3: on that one. He's not we all know he's not

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Speaker 3: really a scrambling quarterback. He's finished under that total eleven

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Speaker 3: of the eighteen games this year, which is a sixty

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Speaker 3: one percent hit rate. One of the things that does

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Speaker 3: you know, I think this is more likely a fifty

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Speaker 3: five to fifty eight percent chance winner. One of the

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Speaker 3: reasons is, you know, the rams aren't favored, and typically

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Speaker 3: he would get those kneeled Dowts at the end of

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Speaker 3: the game.

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Speaker 1: So we've seen him slip. He can slip for.

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Speaker 3: A you know, an eight to nine yard game, but

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Speaker 3: then he'll give some of that back at the end

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Speaker 3: when he kneels down, So we might not have that

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Speaker 3: luxury of this game. This under I think is you know,

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Speaker 3: a medium sized play, you know, fifty five to fifty

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Speaker 3: eight percent. But as we've seen, you know, during this year,

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Speaker 3: eight and a half is a little bit too high.

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Speaker 1: I would pass on this.

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Speaker 3: If it was six and a half or seven and

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Speaker 3: a half, but eight and a half does give that

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Speaker 3: that extra yard that matters.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'd like to get your your insight on this.

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Speaker 2: So the Patriots play man defense, man coverage more than

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Speaker 2: any other team in the league, and historically it is

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Speaker 2: easier for quarterbacks to run against teams that use man cover.

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Speaker 2: How has that factored into this projection. If it's factory, that's.

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Speaker 3: That that would be more you know, my final decision

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Speaker 3: on this bet, but that that's a great point. You're right,

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Speaker 3: zone defense can help limit a mobile quarterback. But like

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Speaker 3: like we mentioned, anytime Jared Goff runs that that was

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Speaker 3: not the design. So I don't think that's going to

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Speaker 3: come into play, and I think this game, they might

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Speaker 3: you know, incorporate Girly more in the passing game, so.

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Speaker 1: He'd be more likely to check it down to him.

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Speaker 3: But like I said, you know that that is the

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Speaker 3: concern is he can scramble for an eighth to nine

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Speaker 3: air game and at that point you'd want the Rams

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Speaker 3: to win. So I was gonna mention that this this

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Speaker 3: prop is highly correlated with the Rams winning. So if

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Speaker 3: you're already taking the Rams on the spread or money line,

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Speaker 3: this is a good bet to kind of parlay with.

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Speaker 3: You know it's gonna be correlay with the Rams winning.

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Speaker 2: I feel interesting. Last week I wrote a couple of

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Speaker 2: pieces on props that potentially could be middled, and one

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Speaker 2: of the props that I mentioned was Tom Brady. On

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Speaker 2: one site in particular, he had a very high over

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Speaker 2: under yardage prop of three hundred and nineteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: and so that is no longer available at that particular book,

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Speaker 2: but it is available in a very covert way. So

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Speaker 2: this this book, they have historical matchups, and so they

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Speaker 2: set their lines for what they thought would happen for

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Speaker 2: the over unders, and then they kind of transpose those

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Speaker 2: into these historical matchups, and so while they have adjusted

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Speaker 2: the lines for the normal props, they haven't adjusted the

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Speaker 2: lines for these historical matchups. So they have Tom Brady

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Speaker 2: in Super Bowl thirty six, one hundred and forty five

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Speaker 2: yards was his passing total there plus one hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy four and a half, which adds up to three

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Speaker 2: hundred and nineteen and a half. So if you think

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Speaker 2: that Brady is going to have fewer than three hundred

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Speaker 2: and nineteen and a half passing yards, then you kind

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Speaker 2: of know what to do there. So that is one

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Speaker 2: way in which you can you can sort of still

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Speaker 2: get exposure to what I think is a pretty inflated

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Speaker 2: over under of three hundred and nineteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: which I should say, in our props tool, you can

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Speaker 2: get access to all the projections that we have. Sean

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Speaker 2: is the one who creates those projections. We have a

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Speaker 2: hit rate on the props that have a bet quality

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Speaker 2: of ten, a hit rate of sixty four percent. But

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Speaker 2: in the prop tool, the projection that we have for

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady's passing yardage is far less than three hundred

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Speaker 2: and nineteen and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's like I was saying, you know, some of

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Speaker 3: these these passing props are a pass for me. But

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Speaker 3: when you get I would say that's about twenty to

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Speaker 3: twenty five passing yards edge, and that's yeah, that's probably

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Speaker 3: I just did the math. That's like sixty two to

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Speaker 3: sixty three percent chance of winning. So that's when you

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Speaker 3: get that much passing yards, it's quite an edge. So

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Speaker 3: that's that's a great way to kind of still invest

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Speaker 3: in that under three nineteen.

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Speaker 2: I think we're done with the quarterbacks. What about running backs?

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Speaker 2: What have you seen?

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Speaker 3: The most interesting thing going into the Super Bowl is

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Speaker 3: you know the Todd Gurley C. J. Anderson, Yes, split

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Speaker 3: now the Todd Gurley rushing yards. I was expecting books

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Speaker 3: to be all low, like you know, low sixties or

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Speaker 3: high fifties, but they've settled right where I've thought it

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Speaker 3: should be, which is, you know, mid sixties. I've seen

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Speaker 3: some books that have a float seventy. I would actually

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Speaker 3: take the under on that, but I'm more interested in

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Speaker 3: the FanDuel rushing attemp prop. They have twelve and a

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Speaker 3: half right now and the overs minus one twenty six,

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Speaker 3: So I'm taking that one and for now passing on

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Speaker 3: all rushing yardages, but I think he's going to hit

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Speaker 3: the over attempts there. I think the Rams know, you know,

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Speaker 3: if they want to win this game, they're going to

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Speaker 3: have to get the ball and hope he's one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: On the subject of Gurley, you mentioned some books opened

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Speaker 2: around seventies. There was one book again that opened around

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Speaker 2: eighty which was just wonderfully high. I hit that line.

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Speaker 2: What I should say is it's the same book, and

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Speaker 2: that line is still exploitable. If you look at the

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Speaker 2: historical matchups right now, they have Marshall Fulk who in

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl thirty six had seventy six yards rushing. They

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Speaker 2: have him as a five and a half yard dog

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Speaker 2: to Todd Gurley. If you think that Gurley is going

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Speaker 2: to have fewer than eighty one and a half rushing yards,

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Speaker 2: you probably should bet on that. That seems like they do.

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Speaker 2: You think that it's like pretty exploitable. One of the

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Speaker 2: most exploitable props I've seen out of absolutely SPA. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if if we were in week eight, I

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Speaker 1: think that line would be a little too low.

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Speaker 3: But you know, things have changed with ce J Anderson

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Speaker 3: being as efficient as he has, so Yeah, that's hammerway, folks,

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Speaker 3: is like anything over eighty is that's that's gotta be

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Speaker 3: seventy percent chance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah right, yeah, that's that's a fantastic prop. Okay, So

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Speaker 2: Todd Gurley, you mentioned any thoughts on c J. Anderson

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Speaker 2: James White, Yes, so CEE J Anderson.

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Speaker 3: You know, on the flip side, if you're investing in

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Speaker 3: Todd Gurley to have over twelve and a half rush attempts,

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Speaker 3: I do think that's gonna, you know, limit how many

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Speaker 3: touches ce J Anderson gets. So right now, I'm liking

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Speaker 3: under forty four and a half. You can get that

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Speaker 3: at Westgate. Yeah, they're still offering that line. Some books

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Speaker 3: have lowered it to like forty two forty one, which

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Speaker 3: is where I'm backing off. That's yeah, I would probably

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Speaker 3: say the fifty to fifty splits thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: So once once you get around there with the big

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Speaker 3: factory and you're not getting much edge, I happen to

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Speaker 3: get under forty nine and a half earlier in the week,

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Speaker 3: So I love that number, But forty four and a

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Speaker 3: half there's still some value, but I think that that's

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Speaker 3: going to require.

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Speaker 1: Him to get double digit touches. Again, I just don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's you know, over fifty percent chance.

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Speaker 3: I think if that happens, I just can't think of

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Speaker 3: a scenario where that's that's going down where the rams

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Speaker 3: are comfortable with that. They definitely want Gurly to get

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Speaker 3: the majority of the touches. And you know, I could

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Speaker 3: see C. J. Anderson vulture a goal line score or

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Speaker 3: something like that. So this is separate from like a

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Speaker 3: fantasy discussion. But you know, forty four and a half,

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Speaker 3: that's going to require double digit touches, and I just

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Speaker 3: don't see the happening.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, shut your mouth on CJ. Anderson getting a goal

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Speaker 2: line touchdown, because that is actually one that I'm interested

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Speaker 2: in not happening. I know some people have an interest

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Speaker 2: in looking at will this player score or will this

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Speaker 2: player not score? Those are kind of popular props. But

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Speaker 2: the one where I've seen some value, I think this

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Speaker 2: is value. I said, like your input on this, CJ.

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Speaker 2: Anderson not to score a touchdown? You can find that

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Speaker 2: at minus one ten, and I think there's some value

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Speaker 2: there because I think his chance of scoring a touchdown

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Speaker 2: is maybe around like thirty thirty five percent something like that.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's value there on TJ. Anderson not

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Speaker 2: to score, and it is correlated with the fact that

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Speaker 2: we are thinking he's going to have fewer touches overall.

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Speaker 3: There.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there is absolutely value with that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, before I even saw that, I haven't looked at

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Speaker 3: his lines, but I would say a fair line would

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Speaker 3: be close for like minus one eighty. Yes, no, Now

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Speaker 3: I do know that the Rams. Don't quote me here,

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Speaker 3: but I think they're second in the league for most

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Speaker 3: rush attempts inside the five yard line.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, and a lot of that is Todd Gurley related.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's a question of whether they could extend

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Speaker 2: that generosity to another running back.

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Speaker 3: And they have so far, even when Gurley is healthy.

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Speaker 3: You know, if Gurley leads him down inside the five

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Speaker 3: and they pull him out, you know and put c. J.

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Speaker 1: Anderson.

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Speaker 3: And we've seen Todd Gurley as a good teammate. He's

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Speaker 3: kneeled before scoring a touchdown I think right times this year. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: which I was not pleased to see as a Todd

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Speaker 3: Gurley on or most of my legs. But Gurley probably

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Speaker 3: has no problems about putting see Janers in there to

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Speaker 3: take a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: But you know.

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Speaker 3: Having said that, you know, I think you do have

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Speaker 3: the value on the note, but you're gonna be worried anytime.

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Speaker 1: Yeah inside the five and you see the polling ball

244
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Speaker 1: come in.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah. I'm hoping for a whole bunch

246
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Speaker 2: of zer line filled goals and we can we can

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Speaker 2: get to that later.

248
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Speaker 3: But I do you know that when it comes to

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Speaker 3: player props, we're we're just betting on value. We're trying

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Speaker 3: to leave our biases and you know, fears aside.

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Speaker 1: So I just hammerd that minus.

252
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Speaker 3: One ten and just you know, hope they don't put

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Speaker 3: him in because I think if he is put in

254
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Speaker 3: the goal line, he's very efficient and he will score.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I'll scare me. I will be sweating that

256
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Speaker 2: the entire game. Okay, any any Patriots running backs?

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Speaker 1: Yes?

258
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Speaker 3: So this prop I got on Bovada and I took

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Speaker 3: it when it was minus one fifteen. Now you can

260
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Speaker 3: get at plus one ten for some reason, but that's

261
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,559
Speaker 3: just yeah, yeah, it's James White receptions under six and

262
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Speaker 3: a half. And you know the fair line for this

263
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Speaker 3: is five and a half. In a while, the books

264
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Speaker 3: are offering that, but for some reason, Bovada's floating this.

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Speaker 3: So you know, I looked into the breakdown of the

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Speaker 3: percent chance of him getting each specific reception and getting

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Speaker 3: six exactly for him. I have that being around fifteen

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Speaker 3: and a half percent, So that is a massive edge.

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Speaker 3: And when you look at his season, he put up

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Speaker 3: less than six and a half reception sixty one percent

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Speaker 3: of the time. But that you know, Sony Michelle and

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Speaker 3: rexburg Head they missed quite a bit of time this year,

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Speaker 3: so it was rare to have all three running backs,

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Speaker 3: you know, ready to go. So you know, I have

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Speaker 3: this being about sixty five percent chance hit rate. So

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Speaker 3: this is one of my favorite props if you can

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Speaker 3: get it. And you're getting plus one ten right now,

278
00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,680
Speaker 3: which is ridiculous, but yeah, I just I love this prople.

279
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Speaker 3: And we know that any given game James White could

280
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Speaker 3: put up, you know, fourteen receptions. We're not trying to

281
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Speaker 3: worry about outliers here, So at this spot you just

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Speaker 3: take the value. You're getting almost a full reception of

283
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:58,360
Speaker 3: value here, which is insanely valuable in these in these markets,

284
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Speaker 3: getting one full recept is you know, like I said,

285
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Speaker 3: it's worth fifteen to twenty percent most of the time.

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Speaker 1: So this is a steal.

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Speaker 2: Yes, And I should note that this is one of

288
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Speaker 2: the the highest rated or higher rated props right now

289
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Speaker 2: in the the Props tool Sean is that the any

290
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Speaker 2: other running backs catch your eye?

291
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Speaker 1: Yeah? Actually, yeah, I have him kind of.

292
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Speaker 3: I threw him at the very end in the in

293
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Speaker 3: the wide receiver section for some reason. But this is

294
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Speaker 3: my this is my favorite prop. It's not the most valuable,

295
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,199
Speaker 3: but James Devlin Westgate is offering over under three and

296
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 3: a half total scrimmage yards and the unders only minus

297
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 3: one ten and the under for that, I love the under.

298
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Speaker 3: So he's the under is hit on this in twelve

299
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,240
Speaker 3: of eighteen games, which is sixty six point seven percent.

300
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Speaker 3: We all know that he might troll for a touchdown

301
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 3: or something, you know, for DFS, he's kind of a pest,

302
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Speaker 3: But this line, Yeah, it's just it's just too high.

303
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Speaker 3: And I don't think you know, Bill Belichick loves to

304
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Speaker 3: get cute during the regular season and stuff, but I

305
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 3: don't envision them drawing up a devilin play here. I

306
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,199
Speaker 3: could see them giving him a goal line play or

307
00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,480
Speaker 3: a you know, third and short play, but I just

308
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 3: don't see a reason why this game he would be

309
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,560
Speaker 3: over this sixty seven percent Clipbrek of hitting me under.

310
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,320
Speaker 3: So I love the under here, and this is a

311
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,880
Speaker 3: fantastic prop. James Devlin is low key one of my

312
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,960
Speaker 3: favorite players in the league. Getting any action on him

313
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 3: is a rare opportunity, and that's that's the beauty of

314
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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. I think a lot of the props

315
00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,680
Speaker 3: I'm taking are these fringe ones that we don't get

316
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Speaker 3: right during the regular season because they have so much value.

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Speaker 2: So, I mean, anytime you can bet on a full back,

318
00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:33,080
Speaker 2: you pretty much have to.

319
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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And I think you know, with Rex burkhead

320
00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 3: rolling right now last week, he looked really good. I

321
00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 3: think that definitely limits the type of plays that they're

322
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 3: gonna drop for Devlin.

323
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Speaker 1: So yeah, I just love this prop.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, Sean, I love hearing you talk about props,

325
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 2: but not as much as I love hearing myself talk

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00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,800
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332
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,200
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333
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 2: is your favorite book?

334
00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 3: My favorite book is called Super Fat Forecasting by Phil

335
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 3: Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

336
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 2: That's a good one.

337
00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,960
Speaker 3: If you read that this offseason, you'll kind of you

338
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 3: get a look into sort of my process and how

339
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 3: I do things.

340
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Speaker 1: Not that I developed it off this book, but they

341
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: hit on a lot.

342
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,000
Speaker 3: Of the things and a lot of the processes I

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00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 3: use when coming out projections or player props that we

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Speaker 3: talk about.

345
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Speaker 2: Okay, that book, I am sure it is on Audible

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Speaker 2: IO in to five hundred five hundred. Okay, let's get

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00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,880
Speaker 2: back to prop Apalooza, Sean. Let's talk about some of

363
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 2: these receivers. Any stand out to you.

364
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the first receiver prop I'm going to talk

365
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 3: about is actually the Super Bowl MVP, So Robert Woods.

366
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Speaker 3: I'm liking him at fifty to one odds to win MVP.

367
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Speaker 3: So I've done a little bit of research on this.

368
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 3: There's been eleven point three percent of the time the

369
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 3: MVP award has gotten to widers. But ever since the

370
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 3: let's call it the Tom Brady era SOM two thousand

371
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,200
Speaker 3: and two to present, it's been seventeen point six percent.

372
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,760
Speaker 3: That makes sense with it with the league turning more

373
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 3: pass heavy. Ye, you know, you're probably gonna see more

374
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Speaker 3: receivers dominate the Super Bowl. But when you look at

375
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,720
Speaker 3: the games of the receiver is one. You know, the

376
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 3: average line has been eight catches, one hundred and twenty

377
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: nine yards and point sixty six touchdowns, so it hasn't

378
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 3: been too impressive. But I think the path to Woods

379
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,920
Speaker 3: winning the MVP is a two touchdown game, which he's

380
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 3: done three times the past two seasons, which is about

381
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 3: ten percent plus. I think that you know the fact

382
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 3: that we have cg Anderson, Todd Gurley sort of you know,

383
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 3: canceling each other out potentially, you know, I think a

384
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 3: two touchdown game from him, and you know, Josh Reynolds

385
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,720
Speaker 3: and Brandon Cooks sort of being held in check.

386
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: Otherwise Jared Goff will probably win MVP.

387
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, uh, all these scenarios, again, this is a

388
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 3: fifty to one prop. So if I'm going through all

389
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: these scenarios, it's to get fifty to one, So this

390
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,040
Speaker 3: doesn't have to be the most likely outcome. But I

391
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,159
Speaker 3: also think, you know, he's gonna get a jet sweep

392
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 3: or two in this game, So if he takes one

393
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 3: of those for a big game or even a touchdown,

394
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:17,120
Speaker 3: that's gonna help.

395
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,360
Speaker 1: He just has too many paths.

396
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 3: To getting the MVP to be fifty to one so

397
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 3: I would say that his FAREAOBS would be close to

398
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 3: thirty five to one. So I'm just taking a little

399
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 3: bit of value offered here. But he's the guy that

400
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 3: I saw the most value on for MVP.

401
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, Well, since we're on the topic of talking

402
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 2: about Super Bowl MVPs, that leads me to obviously Greg zerline.

403
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,399
Speaker 2: It's available at one hundred and twenty five to want odds.

404
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 2: I'll just say, I know he's not going to win

405
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Speaker 2: the MVP award. I just I know it's not going

406
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,680
Speaker 2: to happen. That said he was the MVP, or should

407
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 2: have been if they gave MVP awards for the NFC

408
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 2: Championship game. With four field goals. The thing he has

409
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 2: really going in his favor, well, there are multiple things

410
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 2: going in his favor, and I am going to write

411
00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 2: a piece on this later this week, but I would

412
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 2: just preview now. One. He has a coach who has

413
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,640
Speaker 2: the willingness to let his kicker kick field goals. Basically

414
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 2: wherever they are in the field. If it's fourth and

415
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 2: one on the goal line, they're just going to let

416
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 2: zero line kick. If they're you know, fifty yards away,

417
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,439
Speaker 2: they're still going to let him kick, so whereas other

418
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 2: coaches would maybe go for it on fourth down, the

419
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 2: Rams have consistently shown the willingness just to take the points.

420
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 2: And zer Line has been probably the best kicker in

421
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 2: the league over the past two years. He converts above

422
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 2: ninety percent, the Rams kick more than anyone else in

423
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 2: the league. And then the big thing, and this is

424
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: kind of getting to the almost a thesis of how

425
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 2: Robert Woods could win the MVP. I think it could

426
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: be a game in which a lot of the production

427
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 2: is spread around, so you don't have a big game.

428
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: And let's assume, of course that Zerolene kicks like four

429
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 2: field goals, a couple of them are bombs, and maybe

430
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 2: one of them.

431
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: Is the game winner.

432
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, so assume something like that happens, and

433
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 2: then assume we don't really have a good game from

434
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,959
Speaker 2: GoF we have production that is split between CJ. Anderson

435
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,400
Speaker 2: and Todd Gurley. If there's not a good game from golf,

436
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 2: that doesn't mean any of the wide receivers stand out.

437
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: I don't see someone on the losing team getting the

438
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 2: MVP award. So, you know, I'm thinking if this is

439
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: a low scoring game and the Rams do what they

440
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: have historically done, which is, let Greg's er line kick. Like,

441
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,439
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance that it actually happens, and

442
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: like I should just say, I know, no kicker in

443
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 2: NFL history has actually won the Super Bowl MVP award,

444
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 2: but like, these are the circumstances under which I could

445
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: see it happening, and I think, like there's a there's

446
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: a chance. I think there's better than a one in

447
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty five chance that it happens exactly.

448
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 3: And you said, no kicker has won the MVP, but

449
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 3: there hasn't been over one hundred Super Bowls played. So

450
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 3: if you're getting especially one hundred and twenty five to

451
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 3: one odds, I'm going to have to tell my brother

452
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 3: about this problem because his favorite player is Greg's airline. Yeah,

453
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 3: shout my brother Brian. So he was just beside himself

454
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 3: after that game like you said he was. He was

455
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 3: the MVP in that game. And it's played in a dome.

456
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 3: Like you said, I think that's more willing to sixty yarder.

457
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 3: Let's say, so, yeah, I could get behind that a

458
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 3: small play.

459
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh it's it's small. I should say it has

460
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 2: to be small, because one you would be you know,

461
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 2: irresponsible to put more money on it, and too, the

462
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: books would be irresponsible to let you put big money

463
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 2: on it. So yeah, I mean there's the limit on

464
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: this is going to be small anyway. Okay, so that's

465
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: MVP talk. Let's let's return to to some of these

466
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: other wide receivers here.

467
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 3: Okay, so another one and this again, this is just

468
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: the benefit of having this Super Bowl. You know, player

469
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 3: prop shows. We wouldn't get this prop during any other

470
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 3: game at any point in the season. But Josh Reynolds,

471
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 3: will he have a Russi attempt Westgates offering No.

472
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 1: At minus one twenty and that should.

473
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 2: Be like minus three hundred or something.

474
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: Well, he's had a Russia tempt in both playoff games,

475
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 3: so we know that the Rams, they do like to

476
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 3: run two to three scripted jet sweeps a game, and

477
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 3: you know sometimes they even incorporate Gerald Everett. So I

478
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 3: think just you know, the past two games they just

479
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 3: scripted Reynolds, but I think this game they will probably

480
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 3: go with Woods and Cooks.

481
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

482
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: So you know, through the entire season, he had two

483
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 3: all year, and granted, you know, he didn't really have

484
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: a large role until Cooper Cup towards ACL So I looked,

485
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 3: and you know, he's only had one rush attempt in

486
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 3: the eight games Cooper Cup missed, So there's just too

487
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 3: much value here. You kind of have to overlook the

488
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 3: past two games. So I'm weighing that.

489
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: A little bit.

490
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 3: But I'm still saying this is about a sixty percent

491
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 3: chance hit rate. So I probably bet this down to

492
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 3: minus one fifty or minus one sixty, but you're right,

493
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 3: it should be closer to minus two hundred than almost

494
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 3: you know, even money. So I just love this problem.

495
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 3: It's another one of those props where you take the

496
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 3: value and you kind of have to worry about it

497
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 3: all game because you know, as soon as it happens,

498
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 3: he lose.

499
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: So it's it's a stressful prop, but I'm willing to

500
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 1: just load.

501
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: Up on this one just because of the massive value

502
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 3: that's that's being offered here.

503
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Reynolds is interesting, and I think in part

504
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: like there has been some uncertainty about how to create

505
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: lines for him and how to project him just because

506
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 2: he hasn't been around for the full season. He doesn't

507
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 2: really play the role that Cooper Cup played. You know,

508
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: he is kind of a boom er bust player, so

509
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: he I think he offered value last week when the

510
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 2: props first came out because there was a pretty big spread,

511
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 2: a pretty big discrepancy at one point. And that is

512
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: one of the props that I am looking to middle.

513
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: I took under fifty and a half at one book

514
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 2: in over thirty seven and a half at another book,

515
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: so I'm hoping to, you know, hit right right in

516
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: that sweet spot.

517
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a great man.

518
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: Did you see how often he's been inside that. It's

519
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 3: got to be a pretty high club, it's got to be.

520
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's been in there. I believe two out of

521
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: eight games. Okay, you know, which I think is sufficient enough.

522
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: But you know, I mean that's just it's a pretty

523
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 2: big spread of yards for a guy who's not getting

524
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: a lot of usage. So yeah, I figured it was

525
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: worth it. On the subject of Reynolds, a couple of

526
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: props that caught my eye, and and these are head

527
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: to head props, which I think are are pretty interesting.

528
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: One is Reynolds versus Gronk, and Reynolds is plus one

529
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: seventy and so I think those two guys are close

530
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: enough in their yardage projections where I would be fine

531
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: with with taking you know, the plus one seventy. I

532
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: think more times than not, Gronk probably gets more yards,

533
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 2: but plus one seventy is just is pretty big. I

534
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 2: don't know, Sean, if you have thoughts on that.

535
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's a good one. I definitely agree that,

536
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,479
Speaker 3: you know, Gronk should be favored. Just off the top

537
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: of my head, I would probably have it closer to

538
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 3: minus one thirty though, So yeah, if you're getting one seventy, yeah,

539
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 3: that's a good that's a good number. So yeah, I

540
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 3: would bet that down to minus one forty.

541
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Reynolds versus door set, I have a

542
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 2: bet on that Reynolds giving seven and a half yards

543
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: at mine one. I don't like that one quite as

544
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 2: much as the Gronk one, but I still think there's

545
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 2: some pretty good value on that, at least based on

546
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: the projections that we have in the props tool.

547
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's that's a bad line.

548
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: You're getting about who You're getting about ten to thirteen

549
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: yards on that in value, which is good. You know,

550
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: we were talking about twenty yards for a quarterback is

551
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 3: you know, probably worth ten to fifteen percent, but ten yards,

552
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: especially for receivers, you know, like them that are going

553
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 3: to get thirty to forty yards.

554
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: That's that's insane. Yeah, that's a great bet.

555
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: Okay, So enough Josh Reynolds talk any other wide receivers

556
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 2: catch your eye?

557
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go with another, you know, low key wide

558
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: receiver that we probably wouldn't get props for, you know,

559
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 3: unless it's a Super Bowl.

560
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: Is Corderill Patterson.

561
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah.

562
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: I love this prop, especially this number.

563
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 3: It's eighteen and a half at Westgate and they're offering

564
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 3: minus one ten on the under, which is a steal.

565
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 3: If this were total scrimmage yards, it might be a

566
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: little dicey because I think we could see a Carl

567
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 3: Patterson run, even though we mentioned that, you know, it's Sony,

568
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 3: Michelle and Burkehead, you know, healthy, it's they're probably going

569
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 3: to just use the three main running backs.

570
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: I would bet that there is at least one end

571
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 2: around from the pageactly this game, something like that exactly.

572
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 3: But you know, they made it clear this is receiving yards.

573
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 3: So eighteen and a half, we got to look at that.

574
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 3: Over the eighteen games this year, he's only gone over

575
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: that total four times. So the unders hit seventy six percent.

576
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 3: That's that's even when you know he was sebbing in.

577
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 3: You know, like I said, when we had Michelle and

578
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: burkehead out, you know, Patterson was the running back and

579
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 3: he still never cleared that. So there's just not many

580
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 3: scenarios where he goes over this other than just you know,

581
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: a bomb or he wide open or something. But this

582
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 3: is this is a classic meme versus Median that we

583
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 3: taped all the time on the pod. So massive eye

584
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 3: on the under and Bovada is offering twelve and a

585
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 3: half for this, so it's you have a middle opportunity there.

586
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: But you know, I just love this eighteen and a

587
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: half because it's it's a roundabout way of betting under

588
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 3: one and a half receptions, yeah, which some books are offering,

589
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 3: and it's close to minus two hundred. Yeah, So that

590
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: just goes to show the value on this prop. So

591
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 3: if you can get CORYL. Patterson under eighteen and a

592
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 3: halfever you bet and it's close to minus one ten

593
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 3: or anything under minus one forty, you gotta take it.

594
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: This is this is a great prop.

595
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: Love it. I see one that you have here for

596
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 2: field goal made yardage. Maybe we should have snuck this

597
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: in after I talked about gregser Line, But talk to

598
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 2: me about what you see in this prop.

599
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,719
Speaker 3: You know, I haven't had much time to test it,

600
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: but I came up with my own number for this,

601
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 3: and it's closer to one thirty. Again, you kind of

602
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 3: mentioned it earlier, but you know, with Zaraly in this game,

603
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 3: we also have to talk about the other guy. Goskowski

604
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: is a great kicker. So we have two excellent offenses

605
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: playing at a dome. We know it's gonna be a

606
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 3: high scoring game, but you know they're gonna be moving

607
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 3: the ball and there's a chance they're gonna.

608
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: Stall kickfield goals.

609
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 3: So I just, you know, did up the map, factored

610
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 3: in you know, the projective number of field goals made

611
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 3: average distance, and I came up with around one thirty

612
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 3: three and a half one thirty. So I just think

613
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: we're getting some value on this. I'm not really sure

614
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 3: how much, you know, eight to ten points is worth

615
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 3: on this specific prop, but it's it's gonna be a

616
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: fun prop through for so I'm putting a smaller bed

617
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 3: on it knowing that there's there's some value on the

618
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: over I've just I can't pinpoint exactly how much. It

619
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: is quite yet, but it's fun prop to take, So

620
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: I'm just taking the value on the over here.

621
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to put a pin in what you

622
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: just said about it is a fun prop to take.

623
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 2: We will return to that in a second. But Sean,

624
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: I have to interrupt you because I'd like to draw

625
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 2: your attention to my clothes. As you know, I live

626
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 2: in Iowa. It is bitterly cold here as we record this,

627
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 2: it is negative wand outside it feels like negative twenty one,

628
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: and tomorrow the height will literally be negative fifteen with

629
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: a wind chill in the negative fifties. But you know what,

630
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 2: I don't care because I am totally comfortable and warm

631
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: in my Mac Welding clothes. I like Mac Welding so

632
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: much that I'm worried I might a shopping addiction to Mac.

633
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 2: We're on a first name basis. Let me tell you

634
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: about Mac Weldon. Their mission is simple, to make sure

635
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 2: that all your basics and beyond are smartly designed, and

636
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: that shopping for them is easy and convenient, and frankly,

637
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: Macwoldon is better than whatever you are wearing right now.

638
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 2: And I say that, Sean, knowing that you are not

639
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 2: wearing mac Weldon. These Macwolden clothes are so good that

640
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 2: Ron Burgundy wishes he has. I'm not a fan of shopping,

641
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: but mac Weldon has a really easy to use, streamlined,

642
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: intuitive website to go along with the smart design and

643
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 2: premium fabric of their clothes. Mack Weldon will be the

644
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: most comfortable underwear socks, shirts, undershirts, hoodies, and sweatpants that

645
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: you will ever wear. And I know bad, and I

646
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: know that because that is what I'm wearing right now,

647
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 2: one hundred percent Mac Weldon, with the exception of this

648
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs hat. Let me tell you specifically about mac

649
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 2: weldon underwear. It has silver built into it, so it's

650
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: naturally anti microbial, which means that it eliminates odor, which

651
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: I probably don't need to tell you is a good

652
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: thing to be eliminated. The underwear is so comfortable that

653
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: if you don't like it, mac Weldon will give you

654
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: a refund, no questions asked, and you don't even need

655
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 2: to return the underwear. These clothes are so good for

656
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: working out, going out, just everyday life. My personal favorite

657
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: is the hoodie. It is my power suit. If you

658
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: ever see me out in public. The odds are like

659
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 2: minus three hundred that I will be wearing a hoodie,

660
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: even if it's not seasonally appropriate, even if it's like

661
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 2: ninety degrees outside, I will probably be wearing a hoodie

662
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 2: because you know, it's just it's like my my superhero outfit.

663
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: But anyway, I love everything that I've gotten from Macweldon.

664
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: What I'm saying is that you need to get some

665
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,239
Speaker 2: mac Weldon in your life. For twenty percent off your

666
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: first order, visit macweldon dot com and enter the promo

667
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 2: code action at checkout. Sean, let's talk about props and

668
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: let's get back to the conversation of fun. So I

669
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 2: have kind of a bifurcated way of approaching Super Bowl

670
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 2: prop bets. It's probably not plus EV for my bankroll,

671
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 2: but it is plus EV for my life and my enjoyment.

672
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: So a part of my bankroll is committed to like

673
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: treating it like a game. Try not to invest too

674
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: much in any one game, you know, look for the

675
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: plus EV situations where I can. And then another part

676
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: of my bank roll is like, ooh, this is a

677
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: fun prop. I don't know if this is plus EV.

678
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 2: It might be slightly plus EV, but like this is

679
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 2: going to be fun to sweat during the game and

680
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: to talk about with other people. So, like, what is

681
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: your approach to Super Bowl prop betting and kind of

682
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: getting that split of looking to make money but also

683
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 2: looking to have fun.

684
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great.

685
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 3: Point, and I think you know a lot of people

686
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: do you know, kind of get into the dark side

687
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 3: and not have fun with it. But you're right, when

688
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 3: it comes to the Super Bowl, we're gonna have so

689
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: many ridiculous props. I always advocate having a method and

690
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 3: you know, making plus ev bets, but there is a

691
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 3: certain element in this where you know, it's like going

692
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 3: to check e Cheese and spending one hundred dollars to

693
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: play games and then you walk away, just like the

694
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 3: spider rings and the Chinese finger torture trips, and it's

695
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: like you're just having fun and you kind of you're

696
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: willing to lose some money even just going to Vegas.

697
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: You know you're having fun even if you lose. So yeah,

698
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 3: I mean I have yet to kind of venture off

699
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: into some of the props you've been attacking, like the

700
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: gatorad color and stuff like that, but those I sort

701
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: of take off my statsat for a minute, and sometimes

702
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 3: I'll drop some betstyle in those closer to the game

703
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 3: time and have something fun to root for, even if

704
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 3: I don't have a specific path to value. So are

705
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: there any that you have found that they should look into?

706
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: Oh? Man, I don't know. I spent way too much

707
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: time researching gatorade just you know. So for people who

708
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: are interested in I don't know if if there's actually

709
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: any value in this or not. But someone straight up

710
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 2: asked Todd Gurley on Twitter about the gatorade preference for

711
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 2: the Rams, and he said ice punch, which is clear.

712
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: So that doesn't mean that ice punch is in all

713
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: of their Gatorade buckets. It doesn't mean that the Rams

714
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: are going to win. It doesn't mean that they're going

715
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 2: to actually give their coach the Gatorade shower. You know.

716
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 2: But for people who are interested in some inside information,

717
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 2: it's not even inside information, it's out there, but it's

718
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: not as if the lines have moved it all based

719
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: on that revelation. But yeah, for people who are maybe

720
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: backing the Rams, you know, there could potentially be some

721
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: value in the clear slash water category, which I have

722
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: found at some place at plus two fifty and I

723
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: did shop around at enough places and put in a spreadsheet,

724
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 2: you know, where the best odds are, to where I

725
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,239
Speaker 2: was thinking there might be the actual arbitrage opportunity of

726
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 2: just betting the entire board across different books, just able

727
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 2: to lock in a win. But there wasn't quite enough value.

728
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: But I did determine that if I went with a

729
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 2: full fade of orange and then bet everything else at

730
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 2: specific books, I could lock in a profit as long

731
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: as it wasn't orange that was poured out. Of course,

732
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: I don't want to take that like I'm not that

733
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: much of a degenerate, but I spent way too much time.

734
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm having flashbacks ten years ago and I

735
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: was working in Vegas of like just one of the

736
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 3: sharps that had come and just running and screaming like

737
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 3: what odds are you offering on the gatorade?

738
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: Like where are you offering on clear?

739
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: Trying to get like a good number, and you know,

740
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 3: screaming at me, Yeah, that's I'll look out for plus

741
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 3: two fifty.

742
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: I can see plus two twenty.

743
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 3: But maybe maybe they'll shift the odds a bit closer

744
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: to game time they get some value there.

745
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 2: Oh man, Okay, so yeah, that's one of the prop

746
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 2: bets that has caught my eye just in terms of

747
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 2: random bets out there, one that I think is interesting.

748
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's really worth doing, but well

749
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 2: Tony Romo or Jim Nance mentioned the spread, there's I

750
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 2: think very little chance that they actually will mention the spread,

751
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: specifically in part because the chief of CBS Sports his

752
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 2: outright stated that their company policy is not to talk

753
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 2: about sports betting, So Nance or Romo would have to

754
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 2: be explicitly going against company policy if they overtly mentioned

755
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: the spread, right, And so I think they can say like, oh,

756
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: this team is an underdog, but like they have to

757
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 2: say the specific number, you know, they have to see

758
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 2: what's the line on that minus four hundred for no

759
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 2: for no?

760
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 3: Oh okay, yeah, I've found like any anything of all announcers. Yeah,

761
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 3: it definitely usually doesn't hit. Like I've seen something about

762
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 3: Sean mcvay's age and things like that, and you always

763
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 3: think like, oh, yeah, I could see them mentioning that,

764
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 3: and just it rarely happens. So I definitely think there's

765
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: some value on those this spread, though, I think if

766
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 3: it was Al Michaels, yeah, I would definitely bet on yes.

767
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 1: And I know from past Super bowls al Michaels looks

768
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: at those props.

769
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 3: Oh he does the one there was how many times

770
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 3: will they mention Katrina? I think it was for the

771
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 3: Super Bowl that was in New Orleans and they had

772
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 3: the over under like three and a half and al

773
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 3: Michael's just he was just like Katrina, Katrina, Katrina, Katrina.

774
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: There booth over. So you have to have the n

775
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: c I info. If al Michaels is the announcer, he's

776
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 3: gonna be aware of these and he's gonna try and

777
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: make the overhit. But you're right, Romo and Nance, they're

778
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: just gonna just fly right by all these props.

779
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: They won't mention the spread. Yeah.

780
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 3: So and then they have the one where Tony Romo

781
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:57,919
Speaker 3: over and over under seven and a half plays. He'll

782
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 3: guess correctly. Yeah, I'm not gonna tell one, but hopefully

783
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 3: you can write up an article on that and show us,

784
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 3: show us for the value as.

785
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: No that that seems aggressive, I'll say, but I'm not

786
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 2: going to comb through all of the past broadcasting, so

787
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 2: how to get a sense of what he's going to

788
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: do there? I do like Romo blue tie. I think

789
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 2: that one is nice. I would I would go with that.

790
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 2: I haven't actually bet it, but if I were to

791
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 2: bet on Romo's tige, I would bet on blue. Okay,

792
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: I see one more prop that you have in here,

793
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald, What are your thoughts?

794
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: So this is all about the number.

795
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 3: But I got his tackles plus assists under four and

796
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 3: a half at minus one twenty on Bovada, and that's

797
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 3: one number too high. Most places are offering three and

798
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,959
Speaker 3: a half, which I think it should be. But again

799
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 3: this is more highlighting just the value of a point

800
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 3: on this market. And so he's gone under this fourteen

801
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 3: of eighteen games, so run a seventy eight percent hit rate.

802
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 3: Anytime you get a hit real like that, it's it's

803
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 3: worth hammering the under. But you know this is such

804
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: a you know, tight market that you know he's hit

805
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 3: four exactly twenty two percent of the time this year.

806
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,879
Speaker 3: So it's just going to show how valuable the point.

807
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: Right.

808
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 3: If I'm looking at three and a half, I'm staying

809
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 3: away because that's what I have rejected. But just getting

810
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 3: an extra point in this is so valuable that you

811
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 3: just have to take the under.

812
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: Here one more that I've seen that I think is

813
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: interesting is penalties accepted. And I bet the under successfully

814
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 2: on this last year, and a lot of it had

815
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 2: to do with kind of anecdotal trends I had noticed,

816
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: But I'm interested in betting the under on it again

817
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 2: this year. And so here's why. For the season, on average,

818
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 2: we've had thirteen and a half penalties accepted penalties per game.

819
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: For the playoffs, that number is eleven point two. And

820
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 2: for the teams that are in the playoffs, kind of

821
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: on the matchups that we've seen, we would have expected

822
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 2: to have around like thirteen point four. So like we're

823
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,280
Speaker 2: seeing on average around two point two fewer penalties per game.

824
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 2: And I think part of that is almost like I

825
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 2: don't know, I want to say, like it's maybe a

826
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 2: mandate from the league office. It's like they don't want

827
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: the referees to be the story in this and it's like, oh,

828
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: why was there a no call on the blatant you know,

829
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 2: pass interference. It's like, well, these guys are swallowing their

830
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 2: whistles like they're just they're not blowing as many penalties

831
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: this year in the playoffs. So I have seen a

832
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 2: couple of different numbers out there. One is twelve and

833
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: a half. The under is minus one fifteen up of Vada.

834
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: I think that's the number I like the most. There

835
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 2: is one I've seen out there that's ten and a half.

836
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 2: The under is plus one twenty. But I think ten

837
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 2: and a half is cutting it a little close for me.

838
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I think there is some value getting plus

839
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 2: odds under ten and a half, but I think twelve

840
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: and a half like a differential of two penalties. It's

841
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 2: just so so large that I think I prefer the

842
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 2: twelve and a half.

843
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, take take the extra points you can get there.

844
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, you're right, I think, And I wonder if

845
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 3: you've looked into it, But I wonder if the Super

846
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: Bowl itself has fewer penalties. Like you said, you know,

847
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 3: the league wants the game to be a little bit cleaner,

848
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 3: but also teams that make it this far, maybe they're

849
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 3: more discipline, better coach.

850
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 2: That is certainly true. In fact, the Patriots and the

851
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 2: Rams are both bottom six in the league, and penalties

852
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: called it's there's definitely something there too.

853
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 3: And you said that the league average for the seasons

854
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 3: around thirteen and a half.

855
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, thirteen and a half, and what we've seen in

856
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 2: the playoffs is around eleven point two in the league average. Sorry,

857
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 2: the average of the playoff teams is around thirteen point four,

858
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 2: so it's sort of like right in line with league average.

859
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:19,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's the mean. I wonder if the medians

860
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: even lower. So yeah, you're selling me on this side.

861
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 3: I would rather take the under twelve and a half

862
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 3: one than the ten and a half at plus one twenty.

863
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 3: I think, you know, just just by looking, I think

864
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: something like that, the two extra points you get would

865
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 3: probably be worth like minus one fifteen minus one sixty.

866
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think I think it is worth it. Okay, Sean,

867
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 2: you are writing some prop pieces this week, I believe

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00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: on the Action Network. Talk to us about those pieces.

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00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm going to cover a lot of the

870
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 3: same props. I might dive into the first player to

871
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 3: score a touchdown market somewhat, but I'm going to break

872
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 3: them out to quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and then

873
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: kind of of blend in tight end, kicker, defensive props,

874
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 3: any other ones I find that I didn't mention today,

875
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: But I'll break them down there and have a breakdown

876
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 3: of like you know, kind of what I talked about today,

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00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: the percent chance that I think they'll hit. And since

878
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: everybody has different sportsbooks they go to, I try to

879
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 3: tell you what number I think is the actual break

880
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 3: even line and what price embling to bet to. So

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00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 3: I give a lot of good insights on my prop

882
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 3: articles for you guys to be able to bet them

883
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 3: at whatever book you're getting your Super Bowl prop action out.

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00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: All right, everyone, be sure to check out those articles

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00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: coming out this week on the Action Network that is

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Speaker 2: going to do It. For this episode of the Action

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00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: Network NFL Podcast, please rate and review The Action Network

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00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 2: NFL Podcast on iTunes, Subscribe, unsubscribe, and resubscribe. For Sean Corner,

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00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Raymond, Matt Athew Orkle. See again next episode