Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay.
Speaker 2: And then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: How about Senate spending surging our story today, It looks
Speaker 3: like it's going to happen. It's just a matter of
Speaker 3: time here with votes tied up for about an hour
Speaker 3: from now, we're going to go through the procedural motions here.
Speaker 3: To be clear, they're not voting on the real thing
Speaker 3: at one, but you have to do this to get
Speaker 3: to the real vote, and it's going to tell us
Speaker 3: a lot about how that real vote is going to
Speaker 3: come together here as senators prepare to finish work on
Speaker 3: this ninety five billion dollar four and aid package. Yes
Speaker 3: we're still working on it. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the sidecar.
Speaker 3: They've all been stitched together and now arriving in one
Speaker 3: piece in the US Senate, one big Frankenstein that they
Speaker 3: will vote on likely today, it could be as late
Speaker 3: as tomorrow. Just in case you're playing along on your
Speaker 3: home game, But it looks like senators want to get
Speaker 3: the heck out of here and get onto their recess
Speaker 3: because well they're laid for it. Zach Cohen is on
Speaker 3: the hill for us right now for Bloomberg Government, covering
Speaker 3: Congress of course, and joins us from the Senate side
Speaker 3: of the capital in the halls of power.
Speaker 4: Zach, at one o'clock, can you just kind of.
Speaker 3: Walk us through a little TikTok here of what needs
Speaker 3: to happen, because I know Bernie Sanders wants to be
Speaker 3: heard and Mike Lee wants to be heard before this
Speaker 3: thing passes, what can you tell us?
Speaker 5: There'll be two votes at one o'clock that will really
Speaker 5: kick off the floor consideration for this ninety five billion
Speaker 5: dollar package that, as you mentioned, includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan,
Speaker 5: as well as agislation that would force the devestiture of
Speaker 5: TikTok by its Chinese owner Bike Dance or Face a
Speaker 5: band in the United States. That first voted one o'clock
Speaker 5: Senator Mike Lee, Republican from Utah. It's a procedural vote
Speaker 5: essentially to try to table the whole shebang, which will
Speaker 5: likely fail, and then the second vote will really be
Speaker 5: the one to watch. That's the sixty vote cloture threshold
Speaker 5: we call it. It's basically the motion to limit debate
Speaker 5: to say, okay, we're ready to move on and go
Speaker 5: to final passage. Now, a very similar package did pass
Speaker 5: the Senate a couple of months ago by something like
Speaker 5: seventy votes, and will likely get something similar to that
Speaker 5: this time around.
Speaker 6: And so there's not.
Speaker 5: As much suspense, but certainly an important vote to watch
Speaker 5: as they head toward final passage of what has been
Speaker 5: a long running saga here on Capitol Hill, off getting
Speaker 5: this foreign aid done?
Speaker 3: All right, great Primmer here, Zach, Just to pick through
Speaker 3: each of these so our listeners and viewers know what
Speaker 3: to expect coming up here. That first motion, that first
Speaker 3: Republican motion, is attempting to accomplish what just table the
Speaker 3: whole thing, throw the whole bill.
Speaker 5: Out exactly as you can imagine. There are members of
Speaker 5: the Senate who oppose this package, about a quarter of them,
Speaker 5: actually more than half of Senate Republicans voted for an
Speaker 5: initial version of this again back in February, a package
Speaker 5: of a similar size to ninety five billion dollars, which
Speaker 5: again included many of the same components, and so they
Speaker 5: will be Republicans who will say, let's slow this down.
Speaker 5: We want to vote on amendments, we want to make
Speaker 5: changes to it. We appreciate all the houses done to
Speaker 5: get this to us, but we have some thoughts on it.
Speaker 5: There's certainly some Republicans here in the Senate, as there
Speaker 5: are in the House that are skeptical of or eight
Speaker 5: for Ukraine for instance, and so you could see us
Speaker 5: split there members who want to slow things down at
Speaker 5: that point. But it does sound like there is at
Speaker 5: least a majority and likely a substantial majority of Senators
Speaker 5: who do want to get this bill done, especially after
Speaker 5: Iron's attack on Israel. That has really created a lot
Speaker 5: of the political pressure to get this bill done, because
Speaker 5: you know that Israel package has been combined with the
Speaker 5: Ukraine portion at this point and has.
Speaker 4: Been from months.
Speaker 3: You mentioned that seventy vote count last time when the
Speaker 3: Senate did this back in February. We've wasted basically a
Speaker 3: lot of time here, Zach, because this bill looks a
Speaker 3: lot like that one did without the border compromise attached.
Speaker 4: But it does have something.
Speaker 3: That the Senate built it not, and that's the divest
Speaker 3: or baned TikTok component here, it's in the so called sidecar.
Speaker 3: And we know that senators many cases were very wary
Speaker 3: about passing this as a standalone. What are you hearing
Speaker 3: as they face the prospect of voting to divest or
Speaker 3: ban TikTok at the risk of funding for Ukraine and Israel.
Speaker 5: The realm, the real conflict at this point on the
Speaker 5: TikTok bill, according to Sena Commerce Chair Maria Campwell, who
Speaker 5: was seen as one of the obstacles to that TikTok
Speaker 5: bill from passing the Senate, was it actually increases the
Speaker 5: length of time that it gives Byte Dance to divest
Speaker 5: from TikTok, and it goes from six months in the
Speaker 5: original bill to one year, which he thought would be
Speaker 5: enough time to find a new buyer potentially, you know,
Speaker 5: in the US or elsewhere, at least not a Chinese buyer,
Speaker 5: which would eliminate some of the national security concerns that
Speaker 5: that TikTok has raised with lawmakers, you know, banning TikTok
Speaker 5: from federal devices for instance, you know, Capitol Hill employees,
Speaker 5: Biden administration employees already can't have TikTok on their phones.
Speaker 5: This bill would go a lot farther and would actually
Speaker 5: say no Americans, No American devices can have TikTok on
Speaker 5: them as long as bike Dance is still the owner.
Speaker 5: So now that that length of time, that time frame
Speaker 5: between when the bill would be enacted and when the
Speaker 5: ban or force de vestiture would go into effect, that
Speaker 5: the ones that that's been extended. That has allowed the
Speaker 5: bill to look pretty good for prospects here.
Speaker 6: In the Senate.
Speaker 4: Fascinating, Zach, what's the timeline today? What are you hearing?
Speaker 4: At least we get this done today. Are we back tomorrow?
Speaker 5: It could slip until tomorrow. It could be very late tonight.
Speaker 5: Not to get into too much of the weeds, but
Speaker 5: this sixty cloture threshold basically sets thirty hours maximum of debate.
Speaker 5: But one senator can't hold up all of it. They
Speaker 5: only get an hour each, and so it depends on
Speaker 5: how many senators. At this point, I want to try
Speaker 5: to slow this bill down as long as possible. Raise
Speaker 5: the debate, whether it be about the Ukraine portion, if
Speaker 5: you're a Republican or if you're Senator Bernie Sanders, the
Speaker 5: Independent of Roman wants to talk about some of the
Speaker 5: offense of weaponry that he opposes including in this package.
Speaker 5: Given how Israel's conducted its war and gauzes since the
Speaker 5: October seventh attack by Hamas on Israel, they want to
Speaker 5: try to drag out that debate. But there's enough members
Speaker 5: who want to get back to recess, which is supposed
Speaker 5: to be going on this week, go to seek their constituents,
Speaker 5: go to see their families, and I imagine you see
Speaker 5: a lot of that time yielded back. And so we'll
Speaker 5: know in the next couple of hours what the timeline
Speaker 5: looks like, but it could be a very light late
Speaker 5: night here on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, I love getting into the weeds, Zach.
Speaker 3: That's why we love pulling the in here. It's good
Speaker 3: to see Zach Cohen. Good luck tonight. You might need
Speaker 3: a little caffeine. It sounds like Bloomberg Government's Congress reporter
Speaker 3: Zach Cohen with us live here on balance of power.
Speaker 3: So you know, by the time we go to bed tonight,
Speaker 3: I guess we'll have a pretty good sense of this,
Speaker 3: but it won't be lasting beyond tomorrow when the President
Speaker 3: has promised to sign this. So it does seem while
Speaker 3: we have to go through the motions. So we've got
Speaker 3: to clear a couple of hurdles here. The die has
Speaker 3: been cast, and I'm curious what Bob Inglis thinks about
Speaker 3: all of this. Watch from Afar in South Carolina. Former
Speaker 3: Republican Congressman. He's now executive director of republic n e
Speaker 3: n dot org and Congressman, it's great to have you
Speaker 3: with us today on Balance of Power. I want to
Speaker 3: back up just a day and talk about what happened
Speaker 3: in the House. Actually it's a couple of days, forgive me.
Speaker 4: At this point.
Speaker 3: It was over the weekend when Mike Johnson actually brought
Speaker 3: these four bills to the floor, got him passed in
Speaker 3: the face of a threat to fire him. Is he
Speaker 3: going to end up looking like the smartest guy in
Speaker 3: the room cutting these into separate pieces, getting them past,
Speaker 3: shipping it to the Senate and basically the same form
Speaker 3: that Joe Biden asked for months ago. All the while
Speaker 3: it seems like he's keeping his job.
Speaker 4: Bob, what do you see?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think probably so. And you know, it's really sort
Speaker 7: of us as Americans recognizing the gift we've got in
Speaker 7: our history. You know, in that chamber, that speaker Johnson
Speaker 7: presides over. There are only two portraits, one of George Washington,
Speaker 7: of course. The other is a Marquis de Lafayette, the
Speaker 7: Frenchman who helped George Washington and who helped bring in
Speaker 7: the French into the fight that we were having with
Speaker 7: the British. If it weren't for the French help, we
Speaker 7: wouldn't have made it. And so it's sort of appropriate
Speaker 7: that that's right now in the House Chamber, those two
Speaker 7: portraits are hanging, and that's what's happening. We are helping
Speaker 7: a startup called Ukraine fight a world power called Russia,
Speaker 7: and so it's really less coming to recognize our history
Speaker 7: and our obligation to really to history to sort of
Speaker 7: repay the favor.
Speaker 3: I love the optics that your painting there. What happened
Speaker 3: to Mike Johnson over the past couple of months. Was
Speaker 3: it the classified intelligence briefings, was the meetings with foreign leaders?
Speaker 3: Or was it just getting covered from Donald Trump in
Speaker 3: the end that brought him to this point?
Speaker 7: You know, I think it is a fascinating thing because
Speaker 7: I think what it is is his studying leadership. What
Speaker 7: happens is, you know, when you don't have any real
Speaker 7: authority or power. You can just sound off and say
Speaker 7: all kinds of things, but when you realize, oh my gosh,
Speaker 7: I've got power here, I really need to act responsibly.
Speaker 7: And I think that's what Mike Johnson has done. He's
Speaker 7: acted responsibly, and it's the sort of the growing up
Speaker 7: that happens when somebody actually comes out of the hinter
Speaker 7: lands and into real power. He's got a real power.
Speaker 7: He's a Speaker of the House of Representatives, and he's functioning.
Speaker 7: He's making the House function the way it should, which
Speaker 7: is put it on the floor, let the people's representatives vote,
Speaker 7: and let's see how it goes. And interestingly enough, it
Speaker 7: went with a lot of Democrat and Republican agreement. And
Speaker 7: then there's some people that disagree. That's fine, they get
Speaker 7: to hear there, we get to hear them. But leadership
Speaker 7: requires real thought and carrying through on things that matter.
Speaker 3: I'm really taken by how many people are offended by
Speaker 3: that congressman threatening to fire the speaker over this. We
Speaker 3: keep hearing from people coming on this program talking about
Speaker 3: a coalition government that we now have. We're all going
Speaker 3: to be speaking with English accents here at some point, what.
Speaker 4: Do you make of that. Is it a coalition government
Speaker 4: or is it just a functioning government?
Speaker 7: Well, it wouldn't be I think it's a functioning government.
Speaker 7: And I think if you asked most Americans, they'd say,
Speaker 7: isn't that great? I mean, you do have activists on
Speaker 7: both sides, on the left and on the right. And
Speaker 7: the problem really that we're having is American finding solutions
Speaker 7: to things like climate change, for example, is that the
Speaker 7: politicians have to play to those activists, and those activists
Speaker 7: they really don't want solutions, They just want to sound off.
Speaker 7: And so most Americans actually want solutions. And you know,
Speaker 7: in climate change, for example, the water's coming up, they
Speaker 7: want a solution. And so as you can really help
Speaker 7: you if somebody's sounding off way over the left or
Speaker 7: sounding off way over in the right, now, it's not
Speaker 7: going to help you at all. The water's coming up.
Speaker 3: We got a break with your party when it comes
Speaker 3: to the issue of climate change.
Speaker 4: What's next.
Speaker 3: We're going to see Mike Johnson bring a climate bill
Speaker 3: to the floor.
Speaker 7: That'd be great, wouldn't it, Because really that would be terrific.
Speaker 7: That's the kind of leadership that we would expect when
Speaker 7: somebody grows up, and I think he is growing up
Speaker 7: and I'm impressed. I don't really know him, but I'm
Speaker 7: very glad for what I'm seeing. And I think I've
Speaker 7: seen it before and we'll see it again. Is that
Speaker 7: once people get power and are actually called on to
Speaker 7: perform a valid function rather than act like one of
Speaker 7: these bomb throwers, they don't have any power. Do is
Speaker 7: just talk to media outlets and generate money for themselves
Speaker 7: and their own campaigns. That's not leadership. And so it's
Speaker 7: really great to see the house functioning.
Speaker 4: Sounds like you miss it.
Speaker 3: The thing is, Mike Johnson's got a big bodyguard who
Speaker 3: walks everywhere with him in the school yard right now,
Speaker 3: and that's Donald Trump. Donald Trump can be pretty volatile
Speaker 3: about the way he feels about people. What happens when
Speaker 3: he wakes up one morning and decides this isn't worth it?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 7: That's what I wonder if he'll ever grow up, frankly,
Speaker 7: and whether he'll ever realize, hey, you know what you
Speaker 7: had power for those four years. You could have done
Speaker 7: something with it. But you know, I don't know. I
Speaker 7: think it's not his stick. His stick seems to be
Speaker 7: more to just play to a crowd that and and
Speaker 7: take a bow and feed his personality needs. But you know,
Speaker 7: maybe maybe he could grow up.
Speaker 2: I don't know, But we.
Speaker 7: As Americans need to insist on leaders growing up and
Speaker 7: saying listen, well, we want solutions. We don't want all
Speaker 7: this talk. We want solutions. And it really isn't coming
Speaker 7: upon us. You know, most people say Congress don't listen
Speaker 7: to us. Actually they do. They listen very carefully. And
Speaker 7: what they've heard us saying is from the activists, the
Speaker 7: left wing activist, the right wing activist, we want you
Speaker 7: to go up there and rail against the other side.
Speaker 7: Oh yeah, we can do that, and don't worry. We
Speaker 7: don't need to do anything. But if we told them, no,
Speaker 7: we need you to do something, they do it.
Speaker 3: All of that said, if you were still on the
Speaker 3: House floor, would do you expect Democrats to vote to
Speaker 3: protect Mike Johnson if it came to it.
Speaker 7: Yes, And that will be the test of whether the
Speaker 7: Democrats are growing up, And it really is a crucial test.
Speaker 7: I thought they should have done that in the case
Speaker 7: of Kevin McCarthy, and they did not. So now they've
Speaker 7: got a chance to show that, no, really, they do
Speaker 7: put the country first, and in this case it's up
Speaker 7: to them. It will be up to them because of
Speaker 7: the very small margin on the Republican side. So it
Speaker 7: is incumbent on Democrats to grow up and to say, hey,
Speaker 7: this about the country and us fulfilling our obligations as
Speaker 7: really stewards of that message of freedom that France helped
Speaker 7: us with and we won. Now Ukraine's doing that and
Speaker 7: we need to help them against this Russian thing. And
Speaker 7: so it really is a moment for Democrats to decide
Speaker 7: country or partisanship and do you really want to throw
Speaker 7: the country into chaos with another speaker election that will
Speaker 7: go on forever. Really is that what you want to do?
Speaker 7: Or do you want to accept the reality? Oh this
Speaker 7: is sort of a consensus government, and what's wrong with that?
Speaker 3: I think we just spawned a new sag growing up
Speaker 3: with Bob Ingless. Let's do this again, Bob the former
Speaker 3: congressman from South Carolina, Republican dot Org.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of
Speaker 1: Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and then royd.
Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 8: Joe and myself in watch and wait mode as we
Speaker 8: keep an eye on the Senate floor waiting for these
Speaker 8: procedural votes to kick off. We need a cloture vote first,
Speaker 8: show sixty members need to vote yes for forward progress.
Speaker 8: Ultimately we'll get to final package. We just don't know
Speaker 8: quite when we will get to the final passage of
Speaker 8: this package. Ninety five billion dollars in aid to US
Speaker 8: allies and of course a divest or ban bill for
Speaker 8: TikTok in question today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they stitched them all together, separate votes in the
Speaker 3: House and now one big block here for the Senate point.
Speaker 3: This must be deja vu for a lot of these senators.
Speaker 3: They're already voted on this. Basically that was back in February,
Speaker 3: remembering that was considered doa in the House at the time.
Speaker 3: They basically rebuilt that entire bill, put all the pieces
Speaker 3: back together, and now senators are asked again. So while
Speaker 3: this is procedural, we're going to look closely at the
Speaker 3: closure vote to get a sense of how close it
Speaker 3: might come to that seventy threshold that we saw last time.
Speaker 4: Megan Scully is leading.
Speaker 3: Our coverage on this as always here in Washington and
Speaker 3: our Bloomberg Bureau Congressional News team leader, Megan, it's great
Speaker 3: to see it. I mentioned pulling out the cots later.
Speaker 3: Is it one of those nights or do we end
Speaker 3: up coming back tomorrow because these guys want.
Speaker 9: To go home, right, They do want to go home,
Speaker 9: and the jet fumes always yes, powerful motivator. Like I say,
Speaker 9: we're hearing late evening tonight, which could mean seven pm
Speaker 9: or eleven PM, and it seems like it will be
Speaker 9: before sunrise.
Speaker 8: Okay, okay, well there you go. Of course, we may
Speaker 8: have a few amendments to get through. Fir Steven Dennis,
Speaker 8: who of course is our Senate whisper here at Boomberg,
Speaker 8: says that they're scheduled now at one point fifteen to
Speaker 8: vote on Senator Mike Lee's amendment. That's an effort that
Speaker 8: is almost certain to fail. Basically, all of these amendment votes, Megan,
Speaker 8: are likely to fail. But I guess it's just you
Speaker 8: got to be seen in the act of trying if
Speaker 8: you're these senators. Yes, it's essentially part of the deal
Speaker 8: to get this.
Speaker 9: Believe it or not, this is an expedited process that
Speaker 9: the Senate is undergoing.
Speaker 8: It could drag out for a few more days.
Speaker 9: So in order to get this agreement, this time agreement,
Speaker 9: they had to agree to allow these conservative Republicans to
Speaker 9: offer amendments that, as you said, will fail. If they
Speaker 9: were to pass, that would cause huge problems because then
Speaker 9: it would have to go back to the House for amendment.
Speaker 8: But we are not expecting that.
Speaker 3: Are we hearing hemming and hawing about TikTok or everyone
Speaker 3: is kind of hiding behind the fact that this has
Speaker 3: been extended to up to a year for divestiture because
Speaker 3: there were a lot of Senators not prepared to vote
Speaker 3: to pass that when it was a standalone bill.
Speaker 9: Sure, so Senator Can't Well of Washington, who's the chairwoman
Speaker 9: of the Commerce Committee. A lot of the changes that
Speaker 9: she had asked to be implemented, including the longer time
Speaker 9: for the divestiture, we're implemented in.
Speaker 8: The House bill.
Speaker 9: So she is now on board with it. So we're
Speaker 9: expecting to see pretty much, you know, strong support across
Speaker 9: both parties, with the you know outliers like Senator rand
Speaker 9: Paul and Senator Mike Lee.
Speaker 8: Could this actually get more than the seventy votes this
Speaker 8: very similar package garnered the first time around. Could we
Speaker 8: actually see that bipartisan majority expanding when this vote finally
Speaker 8: happens We could.
Speaker 10: I don't.
Speaker 9: I haven't run the numbers exactly, but there's certainly something
Speaker 9: in here for just about everyone to like, which is
Speaker 9: why it passed the House in.
Speaker 8: Those sort of in parts in parts yes.
Speaker 9: And so with the Senate voting on it in one
Speaker 9: comprehensive bill, you know, if you support Israel, if you
Speaker 9: support Gaza, if you support Ukraine, there's something in there.
Speaker 7: For you to vote for.
Speaker 3: We're hearing the term coalition government on the daily now
Speaker 3: in this program. At least it's not a formal power
Speaker 3: sharing agreement. But with what we have seen over the
Speaker 3: past couple of days with Mike Johnson, is it worth
Speaker 3: that type of framing or is this just a bipartisan
Speaker 3: government working and no one recognizes it?
Speaker 9: You know, I think it is a bipartisan government working,
Speaker 9: and this is how Congress should work. We just haven't
Speaker 9: seen it work this way in quite some time. And
Speaker 9: what you saw happen in the House, while very unusual,
Speaker 9: getting Democrats on board to push this bill through over
Speaker 9: various procedures that ultraconservatives were opposing.
Speaker 8: That's deal making.
Speaker 9: That's kind of good old fashioned deal making that we
Speaker 9: just don't see happen in Washington very often anymore.
Speaker 8: Well, and if you listen to Congressman Marjorie Taylor Green,
Speaker 8: she maybe wouldn't like to see that continue happening because
Speaker 8: she thinks Mike Johnson is essentially rolling over for the
Speaker 8: Democrats and may still very well pursue this motion to
Speaker 8: vacate for that reason. And yet we did hear once
Speaker 8: again from former President Donald Trump, who was speaking on
Speaker 8: a radio show yesterday talking about he thinks Mike Johnson's
Speaker 8: a good guy. He has a one vote margin, trying
Speaker 8: to kind of paint the picture of the reality is
Speaker 8: that Republicans are working with. If Trump's not on board
Speaker 8: with the motion to vacate, can Marjorie Taylor Green realistically
Speaker 8: move forward with it? I think it's very difficult.
Speaker 9: She's obviously very close to the former president, so I
Speaker 9: don't see her moving forward without his tacit approval. Now,
Speaker 9: Trump can change his mind on somebody pretty closely. We've
Speaker 9: seen that happen in the last seven years. So we'll
Speaker 9: see what plays out over the next few weeks, but
Speaker 9: as of right now, he's standing pretty steadfastly behind the speaker.
Speaker 9: I would say his comments yesterday were even stronger than
Speaker 9: the comments he made were ago.
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, all right, Well you're in for a long night,
Speaker 8: it seems. Megan. Thank you very much for spending some
Speaker 8: of this day.
Speaker 4: Bringing the pizzas for the Congress.
Speaker 8: Pizza, caffeine, bring it all. Megan's scully leads our congressional
Speaker 8: coverage here a Bloomberg Thank you so much. Now, of course, Joe,
Speaker 8: we've talked extensively about what the ultimate passage of this
Speaker 8: bill will specifically mean for Ukraine's war effort immediately, as
Speaker 8: the Biden administration says, they're all set up to get
Speaker 8: things quickly onto the ground for the Ukrainian war effort,
Speaker 8: but it's also an Israeli war effort that the US
Speaker 8: is attempting to support here with nearly twenty billion dollars
Speaker 8: in aid to Israel as part of this package, and
Speaker 8: that is on the note. We turn now to Hagar Shamali.
Speaker 8: She is former national security formerly with the National Security Council,
Speaker 8: now the founder of Greenwich Media Strategies. She also is
Speaker 8: an adjunct professor at Columbia University School of International and
Speaker 8: Public Affairs. Haguard, It's always great to have you. What
Speaker 8: will these billions of dollars in aid for Israel immediately
Speaker 8: due to the ongoing conflict we are seeing Israel engaged
Speaker 8: in with frankly, not just Tamas, but other Iranian proxies,
Speaker 8: including recently Aroun itself.
Speaker 11: Sure well, the way anybody should view usaid to Israel
Speaker 11: is in the context of qualitary military edge, maintaining and
Speaker 11: supporting their qualitative military edge. That means, in no normal speak,
Speaker 11: that we're trying to ensure that Israel always has the
Speaker 11: upper hand when it comes to defense in the region.
Speaker 11: We know they're surrounded by enemies and our non need
Speaker 11: alliance that dates back to nineteen eighty seven, that is
Speaker 11: the agreement, ultimately, is that we work to maintain their
Speaker 11: qualitative military edge, not that we try to promote certain behavior.
Speaker 11: And so what that's going to do in this case,
Speaker 11: On one hand, it's going to allow them in certain
Speaker 11: in general from the sixty thousand foot level to continue
Speaker 11: their operations inside Gaza. On the flip side, you're going
Speaker 11: to have as well. It's going to be coupled with
Speaker 11: dialogue and talks on the United States side that who
Speaker 11: communicate their concerns to the Israeli government in terms of
Speaker 11: their military strategic approach inside Gaza.
Speaker 12: So on one hand you have that.
Speaker 11: And on the other you have a lot of it,
Speaker 11: in particular going to go that's going to go to
Speaker 11: the Iron Dome and to the other defensive systems that
Speaker 11: Israel maintains, especially following what you saw coming from Iran
Speaker 11: only a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 3: Regard just in the past couple of days, we've seen
Speaker 3: a few remarkable headlines coming out of Israel. The head
Speaker 3: of Israel's military intelligence unit has resigned, and there's reporting
Speaker 3: that the US State Department is now preparing to announce
Speaker 3: sanctions against a battalion within the IDF for human rights violations.
Speaker 3: Considering the very strained relationship that we've talked about already
Speaker 3: between Joe Biden and Benjamin Ettia who leading up to
Speaker 3: this moment, how would you describe this moment we're in now.
Speaker 12: It's a little weird. I'm not going to lie to you.
Speaker 12: That's the only term I can think of.
Speaker 11: When I saw the news saying that the Biden adminstration
Speaker 11: was preparing sanctions on this one unit within the IDF.
Speaker 11: It's not that I approved at all in any way
Speaker 11: what that particular unit is doing. That unit, as far
Speaker 11: as I understand, is a unit that is manned or
Speaker 11: comprised of a far right Orthodox individuals who have been
Speaker 11: previously accused of human rights abuses in the West Bank. Fine,
Speaker 11: but Israel is an ally, and so saying when you
Speaker 11: have a problem or concern, or you venly oppose something
Speaker 11: that an ally is doing, typically you hammer that out
Speaker 11: in conversation, in dialogue. And that's why I find it
Speaker 11: a weird use of the sanctions tool. Now, sanctions in
Speaker 11: this regard what ends up happening. If you sanction that
Speaker 11: one unit, that not only means that the United States
Speaker 11: is not able to give weaponry to that unit, and
Speaker 11: they will prove that, they will have to continue proving that,
Speaker 11: but the owners will also fall on the Israeli Israeli
Speaker 11: military and government to also prove that or ensure that
Speaker 11: no weaponry, that is US weaponry, is going to that unit.
Speaker 11: So on on that front, I can support what the
Speaker 11: US is trying to achieve. I think I understand the
Speaker 11: broader goal. I understand it because the US is trying
Speaker 11: to say, hey, that unit and in general, settler activity
Speaker 11: in the West Bank undermines you US national security objectives
Speaker 11: because we see a two state.
Speaker 12: Solution as the long term sustainable solution to.
Speaker 11: This conflict, and this settler activity directly undermines that goal.
Speaker 11: I agree with all of that. I just find sanctions
Speaker 11: are a bit of an aggressive tone to take at
Speaker 11: this stage, when Israel is in the middle of all this,
Speaker 11: at this time, to take towards this, I would have
Speaker 11: rather seen that handled in private conversations, even publicly.
Speaker 12: By the way, it's.
Speaker 11: Fine, and as the war dies down, if it remains
Speaker 11: a problem, then you sanction them. Fine, and then you've
Speaker 11: made your point loud and clear. But at this time,
Speaker 11: it just further highlights the strain that you're seeing and
Speaker 11: puts it out.
Speaker 6: In the open.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Well, we've seen a lot put out in the open publicly, Higar,
Speaker 8: including what was escalating tension between bb NET and Yahoo
Speaker 8: and President Biden specifically over the issue of RAFA as
Speaker 8: the US pushes Israel not to potentially put at risk
Speaker 8: the lives of the million plus Palace Indians that are there,
Speaker 8: but now, especially that it seems the immediate direct conflict
Speaker 8: with Iran. Iran may have been wrapped up at this
Speaker 8: time for Israel, should we expect that it is Rafa
Speaker 8: next and potentially soon.
Speaker 11: Well raf the airstrikes on Rafa have already begun on
Speaker 11: the part of Israel. And what's interesting, and I'm glad
Speaker 11: you're covering it because the other given what you had
Speaker 11: to be Iran and then and certainly given what you're
Speaker 11: having now with protests here across the nation and at
Speaker 11: universities including the university I teach at, it's the focus
Speaker 11: seems to be on that and not the fact that
Speaker 11: that things are continuing in Gaza, in particularly.
Speaker 12: The air strikes on Raffa.
Speaker 11: Now you have air strikes on Raffa, but we haven't
Speaker 11: seen this kind of full scale invasion and operation that
Speaker 11: we've all been waiting for or anticipating. But inevitably it's
Speaker 11: going to go down that road. I believe it will
Speaker 11: go down that road. They the Israeli is claim the
Speaker 11: Israeli government claims that they're going to be evacuating citizens,
Speaker 11: but we haven't seen it yet, and so it remains
Speaker 11: a bit murky.
Speaker 12: At least from the public view as.
Speaker 11: To where the Israeli military is headed with RAFA. Clearly
Speaker 11: they've made a decision to go in. That is not surprising.
Speaker 11: They've said that. I never had any reason to doubt it.
Speaker 11: But at what point will they be evacuating citizens in
Speaker 11: order to ramp those operations up is unclear to me.
Speaker 11: That said, they have also said that that would indicate
Speaker 11: the end of their high intensity portion of the war,
Speaker 11: and so we are hopefully reaching an end to that
Speaker 11: at some point soon.
Speaker 12: But RAFA I expected to intensify further.
Speaker 3: You've got members of the Senate Tom Cott and Josh
Speaker 3: Holly calling on Joe Biden to send the National Guard
Speaker 3: into Morningside Heights.
Speaker 4: Can you talk to us Higar about how this is
Speaker 4: going to end?
Speaker 3: On the campus of Columbia University and other campuses were
Speaker 3: coming up on the fourth of May, which is the
Speaker 3: anniversary of the Kent State shootings.
Speaker 4: This is very real right now.
Speaker 12: Well, how it ends is very unclear, and I can
Speaker 12: say that with a lot of first.
Speaker 11: Hand experience being a an adjunct professor at Columbia. Right
Speaker 11: now it is a very difficult situation on campus and
Speaker 11: the administration.
Speaker 12: Is really grappling and struggling with its response.
Speaker 11: Because on one hand, you had the response last week
Speaker 11: where they invited the New York Police Department to remove
Speaker 11: protesters after.
Speaker 12: They had been repeatedly and repeatedly warned.
Speaker 11: That they were in violation of rules, that they had
Speaker 11: no right to stay there, and that if they didn't move,
Speaker 11: they would be forcimply.
Speaker 12: Removed, and that's what happened.
Speaker 11: Obviously, I was in support of that because I believe
Speaker 11: a university is it's a private institution, it's a private campus,
Speaker 11: and while students have the right to protest and exercise
Speaker 11: free speech, they don't have the right to violate Columbia
Speaker 11: rules and guidelines. And they certainly don't have the right
Speaker 11: to create a hostile environment for other students who are
Speaker 11: on campus whose main priority is to study and learn.
Speaker 11: And so they were removed, and that removal obviously has
Speaker 11: created this reaction where the encampment is back. The protests
Speaker 11: have now spread to other universities, and you can see
Speaker 11: the university now really grappled with well, since that was
Speaker 11: a reaction to the police, do we double down on
Speaker 11: that or do we dialogue with them?
Speaker 12: And that seems to be the approach they're taking.
Speaker 11: Now they've allowed the protests, they've said that they're going
Speaker 11: to dialogue with the protesters. I can tell you that
Speaker 11: the protesters are not unified. Their demands are absurd. Some
Speaker 11: of their demands at least, they're very disorganized, and so
Speaker 11: they come off extremely unserious in negotiations because they're students,
Speaker 11: by the way, at the end of the day. But
Speaker 11: that they're going to dialogue with them, and at the
Speaker 11: same time they shut things down to go virtual for
Speaker 11: classes and offered escorts, for example, for Jewish students attending satyrs,
Speaker 11: and that to me is wrong. I don't understand as
Speaker 11: a professor why I should go virtual and my students
Speaker 11: because certain students are creating a ard.
Speaker 3: Comeback when we have more time. Hagar Shamali, this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cats
Speaker 1: just live week days at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay
Speaker 1: and then roun Ato with the Bloomberg Business app demand
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 8: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where
Speaker 8: we're broadcasting live on Bloomberg and television and radio from
Speaker 8: the studio, while we also kind of wish we could
Speaker 8: be a fly on the wall in the US Senate
Speaker 8: right now, because there's some debate happening on the floor,
Speaker 8: at least speeches on the floor right now. The independent
Speaker 8: Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, is talking about this ninety
Speaker 8: five billion dollar aid package that is getting set for
Speaker 8: a few procedural votes and ultimately eventually final passage we
Speaker 8: expect later today or at some point wednesday.
Speaker 1: Joe.
Speaker 8: We just had the Republican Senator from Utah, Mike Lee,
Speaker 8: talking as well. What we're going to need to find
Speaker 8: here is some agreement on what amendments they're going to
Speaker 8: vote on and when, then a cloture vote, and then
Speaker 8: ultimately the real deal.
Speaker 4: This is the sausage being made.
Speaker 3: This is the part you're not supposed to see, but
Speaker 3: we're showing it to you live from Washington.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: Procedural votes that will lead to real votes, and it
Speaker 3: might be really late tonight, Kaylee, maybe early in the morning.
Speaker 3: They're talking about whether to bring in the cots. They'll
Speaker 3: definitely be bringing in the fast food and the wine.
Speaker 3: You didn't hear it from me, but that's the way
Speaker 3: it goes around here. But yes, making an agreement here
Speaker 3: on how to use the floor time satisfying members of
Speaker 3: both parties in this case, Kayleie, you just walk through
Speaker 3: that pretty well. There are Democrats and Republicans who want
Speaker 3: to be heard today, but it is not expected to
Speaker 3: change the outcome of this vote, and that's what we
Speaker 3: want to talk about with our panel. Rick Davis is
Speaker 3: with US Republican strategists Bloomberg Politics.
Speaker 4: Contributed to join today by Pat Dennis.
Speaker 3: Of course, back with us today, Democratic strategist and founder
Speaker 3: and president American Bridge twenty first Century.
Speaker 4: Great to see you both here, Rick.
Speaker 3: This is a foregone conclusion that these bills are going
Speaker 3: to pass, but what we're about to hear from the
Speaker 3: Mike Lees and Bernie Sanders of the world does tell
Speaker 3: us quite a lot about the debate around these bills.
Speaker 3: And that's not going to end when the President signs them,
Speaker 3: is it.
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 13: This committing will continue, people will continue to campaign on it. Look,
Speaker 13: it's a issue that the American public is relatively undecided about.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 13: They've been moving around quite a bit on issues related
Speaker 13: to Israel and to Ukraine, and so I think these
Speaker 13: members want to start staking out positions. They're headed into
Speaker 13: an election year and they want to make sure that
Speaker 13: they get their bite in before the end of the weekend.
Speaker 13: But it's really a trading range on votes. You know,
Speaker 13: last vote on this was seventy votes in the Senate
Speaker 13: out of one hundred. It's plus or minus three or
Speaker 13: four votes, and I think that's where we're going to
Speaker 13: wind up tonight.
Speaker 8: So as we're seeing some of these other senators taken
Speaker 8: some time on the floor, including Republican Senator Mike Lee,
Speaker 8: who we've mentioned, we did here on the floor earlier today,
Speaker 8: pat from Senator Mitch McConnell, who is the outgoing Senate
Speaker 8: Minority leader. He of course will no longer retain that
Speaker 8: leadership position after the election, but he has been fighting
Speaker 8: the fight on getting Ukraine aid through this chamber through
Speaker 8: longer'smore broadly, loudly and vocally, sometimes in the face of
Speaker 8: serious opposition from members of his own party. We've talked
Speaker 8: a lot about how this package passing is a victory
Speaker 8: for President Biden, but is it too for Mitch McConnell potentially.
Speaker 6: I mean, he's on his way out.
Speaker 10: It seems like he's sort of you know, maybe trying
Speaker 10: to work on some of the stuff he actually believes.
Speaker 10: But you know, to a large extent, the MAGA faction
Speaker 10: within the Republican Party can trace its roots and its
Speaker 10: power back to Mitch McConnell in a lot of ways.
Speaker 10: And those are the ones who really are the reason
Speaker 10: this bill is six months later than it should be,
Speaker 10: after you know, significant setbacks in Ukraine and people dying.
Speaker 6: It didn't have to happen. And look, I'm glad we're
Speaker 6: getting this bill passed.
Speaker 10: I think Congress starting to work together and like actually
Speaker 10: get some bipartisan stuff done as a testament to Joe
Speaker 10: Biden's leadership.
Speaker 6: And I'm hopefully he continued.
Speaker 3: Just said a name that I haven't heard anyone mentioned
Speaker 3: in a while, Paton, that's Mitch McConnell, Rick Davis. What
Speaker 3: does Mitch McConnell do with this moment, having stood his
Speaker 3: ground and he's got something to show for it in
Speaker 3: this case, does he circle the wagons again? And I
Speaker 3: know that there's a battle here for the next leader,
Speaker 3: but while he's in charge, circle the wagons here and
Speaker 3: say take this lesson. You might want to listen to
Speaker 3: your leader next time.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think that this is as much about his
Speaker 13: legacy as it is about the future. If there are
Speaker 13: two winners in this entire drama for the last six
Speaker 13: months around Ukraine funding, it's been Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.
Speaker 13: Both have stug firm with their competing constituencies. Joe Biden
Speaker 13: certainly took a lot of gas from the left on
Speaker 13: his support for Israel, and Mitch McConnell has had to
Speaker 13: plow back the advancing populist mega Republican tiede in the
Speaker 13: Senate by holding firm on this, and they can both
Speaker 13: really feel good about the fact that they've done something special.
Speaker 13: I would say, you know, Mitch McConnell will probably not
Speaker 13: be remembered for what I think is one of the
Speaker 13: more historic achievements of the Senate, which is a bipartisan
Speaker 13: bill on this issue that included the strongest title we've
Speaker 13: had on border security in thirty or forty years.
Speaker 14: And you know, it.
Speaker 13: Wasn't MAGA in Senate that stopped that from happening.
Speaker 6: It got passed.
Speaker 13: It's the MAGA right in the end, Donald Trump really
Speaker 13: specifically who deserves credit for killing that in the House.
Speaker 13: And we could actually be celebrating a really significant event
Speaker 13: here if they had kept that title.
Speaker 8: In Well, Rick, you bring up former President Trump and
Speaker 8: the Maga Wright in the House. We know some members
Speaker 8: of that faction of the Republican Party, namely Marjorie Taylor Green,
Speaker 8: Paul Gosar, and Tom Massey would like to see the
Speaker 8: House Speaker Mike Johnson potentially vacated or resign as a
Speaker 8: result of this foreign aid making it through that chamber.
Speaker 8: And yet it seems Donald Trump, for the second time,
Speaker 8: has stepped in to defend Mike Johnson. He was asked
Speaker 8: about him on John Frederick's media network last night and
Speaker 8: this is what he had to say about the House Speaker.
Speaker 8: Take a listen.
Speaker 15: It's a tough situation when you have one. I think
Speaker 15: he's a very good man. I think he's trying very hard.
Speaker 15: And again, we've got to have a big election. We've
Speaker 15: got to elect some people in Congress, much more than
Speaker 15: we have right now.
Speaker 8: So, Rick Davis, is Donald Trump guaranteeing that Mike Johnson
Speaker 8: will stay the speaker? Can Marjorie Taylor Green go against
Speaker 8: the de facto leader of her party, someone who she's
Speaker 8: very close with.
Speaker 13: Well, I actually don't think Donald Trump can guarantee it,
Speaker 13: but Hucking Jeffreys can because he's got actual notes on
Speaker 13: the floor that would vote for Johnson, and I think
Speaker 13: Donald Trump only has votes that would vote against Johnson.
Speaker 13: Marjorie Taylor Green wasn't going anywhere with her sort of
Speaker 13: show vote maneuver. Her performative politics is exactly being laid
Speaker 13: bare now because there's nowhere for her to go, and
Speaker 13: even Donald Trump thinks it's bad. I did have chaos
Speaker 13: in the House of Representative right before an election that
Speaker 13: didn't take much effort to think through that problem. So yeah,
Speaker 13: I think that Donald Trump is only going where he
Speaker 13: thinks is the safest place for him to go right now,
Speaker 13: and that's back in Speaker Johnson. But you know he
Speaker 13: backed Speaker McCarthy before throwing him to the wolves. So
Speaker 13: I wouldn't get too far along in my victory lap
Speaker 13: if I were Speaker Johnson right.
Speaker 4: Now throwing him to the wolves.
Speaker 3: Indeed, look, we've got a lot to witness left today,
Speaker 3: and if you're just joining us on Bloomberg Radio and TV,
Speaker 3: the process has begun in the Senate. We're actually watching
Speaker 3: a roll call vote take place now on a motion
Speaker 3: to table to kill this entire package that passed the
Speaker 3: House and was stitched back together again here in the Senate.
Speaker 3: It is expected to pass this bill despite the efforts
Speaker 3: to change it or kill it along the way, And
Speaker 3: it might come hours from now, it might come a
Speaker 3: lot later. All the while, Donald Trump aforementioned, is in
Speaker 3: court today in New York for what was another half day,
Speaker 3: and Joe Biden is in Tampa campaigning Pat Dennis. How
Speaker 3: does Joe Biden leverage the momentum coming off of this,
Speaker 3: We're all talking about Mike Johnson and his political win,
Speaker 3: his political future. How does the president ride this to
Speaker 3: his benefit on the campaign?
Speaker 4: Trill?
Speaker 10: I mean, ultimately, what is to the American people's benefit
Speaker 10: is to Joe Biden's benefit. You have steady leadership, He's
Speaker 10: getting this stuff passed. You know, people forget, but you
Speaker 10: know Donald Trump was trying to get aid pass to
Speaker 10: Ukraine and wound up trying to extort our friends and
Speaker 10: ultimately got impeached to it over it.
Speaker 6: Which is, you know, kind of a big deal.
Speaker 10: I think what you see Joe Biden doing in Florida, though,
Speaker 10: is really showing the contrast between these policies where you know,
Speaker 10: Congress is doing stuff that actually works, passing stuff that
Speaker 10: the American people want, versus the state like Florida where
Speaker 10: you have these extreme abortion bands really hurting people's quality
Speaker 10: of life. And that contrast right there between the Joe
Speaker 10: Biden future and the Maga future is exactly what he
Speaker 10: needs to be doing.
Speaker 8: Just quickly, Brad, we have less than a minute left.
Speaker 8: But why spend time in Florida with that message? Why
Speaker 8: not spend time in the swing states that are ultimately
Speaker 8: going to decide whether or not you get to be
Speaker 8: president for a second term.
Speaker 6: I wouldn't write off Florida so quickly.
Speaker 10: Look, there's a lot of discontent there with Ronda Santis' leadership,
Speaker 10: with Trump's leadership. And yes, there are other states. There's
Speaker 10: North Carolina, there's Michigan. My organization's going to be focused
Speaker 10: on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan in particular, and there is going
Speaker 10: to be a lot of Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: In all of those states. I can guarantee it.
Speaker 10: So don't just think just because we're going to Florida,
Speaker 10: we're not going everywhere else.
Speaker 8: All right, Pat Dennis, thank you so much for joining
Speaker 8: us here on Bloomberg television and radio. He, of course,
Speaker 8: is American Bridge twenty first century presidentocratic strategist and Rick Davis,
Speaker 8: a Republican strategist and Bloomberg Politics contributor. Today, as we
Speaker 8: still Joe are keeping an eye on the Senate floor, you're.
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Kens Just
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and.
Speaker 2: Enrouid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: We're trying to keep you honest on Congress today, and
Speaker 3: you know that's a tough job. But we're watching voting
Speaker 3: get underway here in the Senate. A motion to table
Speaker 3: the Foreign Aid bill that would bring money to Ukraine, Israel,
Speaker 3: and Taiwan, also includes the TikTok Bill and some other
Speaker 3: matters is likely to survive this, but we have to
Speaker 3: go through the motions. There are going to be a
Speaker 3: few procedural hurdles, including the actual cloture vote that will
Speaker 3: bring us to real voting up or down on the
Speaker 3: underlying bill. That's expected to happen late tonight. If today,
Speaker 3: we'll go through it together and let you know, of
Speaker 3: course what happens.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. This is
Speaker 3: the day Kaylee the President says he will sign it,
Speaker 3: and one of the biggest backers of this effort, and
Speaker 3: we've been in touch with them for months. Here is
Speaker 3: the US Chamber of Commerce. Remembering there was a branding
Speaker 3: issue with this bill. We talked so much about foreign policy, geopolitics,
Speaker 3: and that's of course an enormous that's the backdrop for this,
Speaker 3: but the spending is largely domestic, investing in our defense
Speaker 3: industrial base.
Speaker 8: Yeah, when we talk about the sixty plus billion billions
Speaker 8: of dollars for Ukraine, a large chunk of that isn't
Speaker 8: actually being sent over to Ukraine in the form of
Speaker 8: cash and suitcases. It's being fed into our defense industrial
Speaker 8: base so that we can manufacture equipment, largely to fill
Speaker 8: the stocks of what we already had sent over to Ukraine.
Speaker 8: And this could be a juicer of the US economy
Speaker 8: in many ways for that reason. So it's on that
Speaker 8: note that we begin now with Neil Bradley. He is
Speaker 8: executive vice president over at the US Chamber of Commerce
Speaker 8: also serves as their chief policy officer. Neil, great to
Speaker 8: see you here in inner Washington, DC studio. You just
Speaker 8: days ago before the House passed this legislation, pend a
Speaker 8: letter to them urging them to pass this because you say,
Speaker 8: not only would it provide crucial funding and urgently needed
Speaker 8: military assistance to our allies, it would support a more
Speaker 8: robust domestic defense industrial base as well. How important is
Speaker 8: it that this legislation passed for US business, for the
Speaker 8: US economy, Well, it's.
Speaker 14: Critical when you think about our own defense industrial base.
Speaker 14: So there's one buyer largely, and that is the US military.
Speaker 14: And when we begin to mothball weapons, when we begin
Speaker 14: to slow down those supply chain lines, it takes a
Speaker 14: long time to start back up. We know that we
Speaker 14: are in a world that is more dangerous than it's
Speaker 14: been in a long time, and so the ability to
Speaker 14: modernize our defense industrial base and those supply lines is
Speaker 14: critically important. And it's exactly what you just said. What
Speaker 14: we're doing is sending older weapons over to Ukraine, restarting
Speaker 14: our own domestic manufacturing facility, in many cases expanding them
Speaker 14: to refill our own stockpiles. It's kind of one of
Speaker 14: those win win situations. Not only are we helping the
Speaker 14: Ukrainians and the fight against an aggressor, we're improving our
Speaker 14: stockpiles of our own weapons and we're improving our domestic
Speaker 14: manufacturing capacity.
Speaker 3: There's a momentum here and you're referring to it. It
Speaker 3: takes a long time to get it started again, as
Speaker 3: you just said, once you'll wind it down. And there's
Speaker 3: been a big conversation about under investment when it comes
Speaker 3: to the DIIV, the defense industrial base. With that said,
Speaker 3: if we're firing up the engines again here and in
Speaker 3: some cases expanding capacity. Raytheon has talked about the need
Speaker 3: to expand its manufacturing capacity. Where does that momentum bring
Speaker 3: us in the years ahead.
Speaker 14: Well, it's a question of what do we need to
Speaker 14: sustain our own national security. Ultimately, at the end of
Speaker 14: the day, that's what's.
Speaker 4: Driving sustained jobs.
Speaker 14: It does sustain jobs. But listen, the driving impetus isn't
Speaker 14: to become a self gener to understobs machine. It really
Speaker 14: is our own national security. But we realize that when
Speaker 14: we make those investments, we want to maintain some base
Speaker 14: levels of capacity. And I think what experts have concluded
Speaker 14: is that we let that capacity, our ability to produce
Speaker 14: these things and get to a point where it made
Speaker 14: it harder to restart and ultimately was endangering our own security.
Speaker 14: So I suspect that as we get through this moment
Speaker 14: in period, we're going to figure out what's the right
Speaker 14: sustainable level that keeps supply chains operating, that keeps these
Speaker 14: facilities operat and prevents a shortage, that prevents shortages and
Speaker 14: matches our needs. The other interesting thing that's going on
Speaker 14: here is, like in every other aspect of the economy,
Speaker 14: weapons systems are constantly advancing, and so you know, if
Speaker 14: you are if your stockpile consists of a model that's
Speaker 14: ten years old, it is antiquated by today's standard. And
Speaker 14: the only way that you can keep up with the
Speaker 14: standards and the technology today is to be constantly innovating
Speaker 14: and manufacturing. So what we're building today is much better
Speaker 14: for our own national security, much more technologically sophisticated than
Speaker 14: the stockpiles that we're drawing down.
Speaker 8: Well, I'm glad you mentioned technology specifically, because it's worth noting.
Speaker 8: While the Chamber is advocated for this package for its
Speaker 8: national security merits, this is not just funding for allies.
Speaker 8: There's been a few other things attached, including the TikTok
Speaker 8: divest Or band Bill, an expanded window. They now have
Speaker 8: a year potentially for that divestiture. But this is a
Speaker 8: specific private company being called out in legislation that is
Speaker 8: working its way through Congress and looks like it will
Speaker 8: get a signature from the President. Does the Chamber have
Speaker 8: any concerns about the precedent this may set moving forward
Speaker 8: if we're now in the business of targeting specific companies
Speaker 8: and telling them who can own them and who who can't,
Speaker 8: and who can control their algorithms.
Speaker 14: Without getting in the specifics of TikTok's owner shop.
Speaker 8: Sure, just as an example.
Speaker 14: As a larger question, there clearly is vulnerabil with our
Speaker 14: own national security that we have to guard against, whether
Speaker 14: that's foreign investment coming in or intellectual property sharing abroad.
Speaker 14: And we have mechanisms for doing this. You know, in
Speaker 14: the nineteen eighties late nineteen eighties, we created SCIPHIUS, the
Speaker 14: Program Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States that
Speaker 14: is tasked with making sure that we were viewing in
Speaker 14: that case, investments into the United States on in national
Speaker 14: security grounds and protecting it from politicalization. So I think
Speaker 14: the important thing that we want to do is make
Speaker 14: sure that we're maintaining processes that keep the US open
Speaker 14: for investment, that keep the US engaged commercially with the world.
Speaker 14: But when national security comes into play, is making those
Speaker 14: decisions only on a national security basis, not based on
Speaker 14: political consideration.
Speaker 3: So well, the Chamber take a stand on a lawsuit
Speaker 3: here is we're told this is about to enter a
Speaker 3: protracted legal battle.
Speaker 14: We have not opened on this particular transaction. We do
Speaker 14: opine a along the strictures when people propose changes to
Speaker 14: Sciphius or regulating investments abroad. We have to get the
Speaker 14: system right. And if we have the system right, then
Speaker 14: we can kind of resolve some of these questions that
Speaker 14: have emerged about kind of the political nature.
Speaker 4: Of the decision making.
Speaker 8: Well, speaking of political decision making, it's also worth pointing
Speaker 8: out that this TikTok bill, the supplemental funding, this has
Speaker 8: taken months to get across the finish line in Congress
Speaker 8: after months prior of talking about it. Has taken us
Speaker 8: a long time to get to this moment. It's now
Speaker 8: mid late April. We still have about seven months to
Speaker 8: go a little less until the election. Can we expect
Speaker 8: anything else from this Congress in that intermittent time period.
Speaker 8: Is there anything else they're going to be able to
Speaker 8: get done or it's all campaign from here?
Speaker 14: Well, let's hope it's not all campaign. Listen, we're realists.
Speaker 14: We know it's an even numbered year, it's a presidential
Speaker 14: election year that is going to dominate a lot of
Speaker 14: the consideration. But if you think about this bill that
Speaker 14: the sense processing, you're right six months ago. This should
Speaker 14: have been done a long time ago. But it's been
Speaker 14: the principal issue that everyone's been waiting for the House
Speaker 14: to act on. The House acted on it over the weekend,
Speaker 14: and now we're wrapping it up for it to go
Speaker 14: to the president. The big priority that we see unfinished
Speaker 14: business on Congresses to do plate is actually a tax
Speaker 14: extender's bill that passed the House of Representatives overwhelming bipartisan votes,
Speaker 14: something like three hundred and eighty some votes. It's now
Speaker 14: sitting in the Senate. We're really looking for this may
Speaker 14: work period as a chance to get it done. Importantly,
Speaker 14: if it doesn't happen now, there's really no prospects for
Speaker 14: it to happen next year, this year, or maybe for
Speaker 14: quite a while into next year, which means that we're
Speaker 14: going to keep in place tax increases that on a
Speaker 14: bipartisan basis, everyone agrees shouldn't have occurred. And these have
Speaker 14: real ramifications for business. You know, for small businesses that
Speaker 14: make R and D spending, the median small business has
Speaker 14: seen about a thirty five percent tax increase just as
Speaker 14: a result of moving from deducting R and D expenses
Speaker 14: to amortizing them over five years. I can't find anyone
Speaker 14: who thinks that's a good policy idea. So I have
Speaker 14: no idea why we're not getting Congress to fix that.
Speaker 3: We're spending time on balance of Power with Neil Bradley
Speaker 3: from the US Chamber of Commerce. Is an important vote today,
Speaker 3: the FTC is going to vote on whether to ban
Speaker 3: non compete agreements. Now, this is being framed as a
Speaker 3: pro worker effort. What are you hearing from your members?
Speaker 3: What does it mean for employers?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 14: I think there are two issues. FIRSTUS, the policy around
Speaker 14: non competes and non competes literally go back to the founding.
Speaker 14: People had non compete agreements when they were apprentices in workshops.
Speaker 14: So this is not a new idea. It's always been
Speaker 14: regulated at the state level. States and courts have adopted
Speaker 14: different theories. The idea that we would ban all non competes,
Speaker 14: which is what Lena Kam first proposed, is so radical
Speaker 14: that Governor Hokele and New York just veat tota bill
Speaker 14: that would do that exact same thing. Now, we don't
Speaker 14: know what the final policy parameters are going to look like,
Speaker 14: but we think that there's actually an even more important
Speaker 14: issue at stake here, and that is the authority of
Speaker 14: the FTC. Under their one hundred and twelve year old statute,
Speaker 14: they judge anti competitive behavior in their anti trust role
Speaker 14: on a case by case basis. They've never and no
Speaker 14: one's ever believed they have the authority to write rules
Speaker 14: regulating competition in the marketplace. And the reason is is
Speaker 14: that if they can write a rule under the guys
Speaker 14: of banning non competes or limiting non competes in this space,
Speaker 14: there's no aspect of the economy that they couldn't, under
Speaker 14: the guise of regulating competition, issue a regulation on They
Speaker 14: put out a policy outline in twenty twenty two where
Speaker 14: they talked about things like loyalty programs. Well, are loyalty
Speaker 14: programs anti competitive because they lock you in as a
Speaker 14: consumer and rewarding a company over an over. Do we
Speaker 14: really think that three people at the FTC get to
Speaker 14: decide whether or not we have loyalty programs? They suggested
Speaker 14: things like in the M and A space, mergers and
Speaker 14: acquisitions that are currently legal under current law could by
Speaker 14: regulation become illegal. That's Congress's job, not the Federal Trade Commissions.
Speaker 14: And so we're quite worried about this power grab that
Speaker 14: it's really opening a Pandora's box to regulate prices, to
Speaker 14: regulate commercial arrangements between parties, to really get into any
Speaker 14: aspect that they want to to regulate.
Speaker 8: So the Chamber is going to take the FTC to
Speaker 8: courd over this.
Speaker 4: We will take the FTC to cords if they pursue.
Speaker 8: All right, on that note, we will leave it. Neil
Speaker 8: Bradley of the Chamber of Commerce, thank you so much.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, d C.
Speaker 4: At noon time stud at Bloomberg dot com.