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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay.

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Speaker 2: And then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: How about Senate spending surging our story today, It looks

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Speaker 3: like it's going to happen. It's just a matter of

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Speaker 3: time here with votes tied up for about an hour

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Speaker 3: from now, we're going to go through the procedural motions here.

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Speaker 3: To be clear, they're not voting on the real thing

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Speaker 3: at one, but you have to do this to get

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Speaker 3: to the real vote, and it's going to tell us

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Speaker 3: a lot about how that real vote is going to

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Speaker 3: come together here as senators prepare to finish work on

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Speaker 3: this ninety five billion dollar four and aid package. Yes

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Speaker 3: we're still working on it. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the sidecar.

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Speaker 3: They've all been stitched together and now arriving in one

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Speaker 3: piece in the US Senate, one big Frankenstein that they

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Speaker 3: will vote on likely today, it could be as late

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Speaker 3: as tomorrow. Just in case you're playing along on your

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Speaker 3: home game, But it looks like senators want to get

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Speaker 3: the heck out of here and get onto their recess

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Speaker 3: because well they're laid for it. Zach Cohen is on

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Speaker 3: the hill for us right now for Bloomberg Government, covering

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Speaker 3: Congress of course, and joins us from the Senate side

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Speaker 3: of the capital in the halls of power.

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Speaker 4: Zach, at one o'clock, can you just kind of.

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Speaker 3: Walk us through a little TikTok here of what needs

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Speaker 3: to happen, because I know Bernie Sanders wants to be

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Speaker 3: heard and Mike Lee wants to be heard before this

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Speaker 3: thing passes, what can you tell us?

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Speaker 5: There'll be two votes at one o'clock that will really

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Speaker 5: kick off the floor consideration for this ninety five billion

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Speaker 5: dollar package that, as you mentioned, includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan,

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Speaker 5: as well as agislation that would force the devestiture of

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Speaker 5: TikTok by its Chinese owner Bike Dance or Face a

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Speaker 5: band in the United States. That first voted one o'clock

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Speaker 5: Senator Mike Lee, Republican from Utah. It's a procedural vote

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Speaker 5: essentially to try to table the whole shebang, which will

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Speaker 5: likely fail, and then the second vote will really be

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Speaker 5: the one to watch. That's the sixty vote cloture threshold

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Speaker 5: we call it. It's basically the motion to limit debate

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Speaker 5: to say, okay, we're ready to move on and go

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Speaker 5: to final passage. Now, a very similar package did pass

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Speaker 5: the Senate a couple of months ago by something like

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Speaker 5: seventy votes, and will likely get something similar to that

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Speaker 5: this time around.

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Speaker 6: And so there's not.

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Speaker 5: As much suspense, but certainly an important vote to watch

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Speaker 5: as they head toward final passage of what has been

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Speaker 5: a long running saga here on Capitol Hill, off getting

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Speaker 5: this foreign aid done?

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Speaker 3: All right, great Primmer here, Zach, Just to pick through

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Speaker 3: each of these so our listeners and viewers know what

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Speaker 3: to expect coming up here. That first motion, that first

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Speaker 3: Republican motion, is attempting to accomplish what just table the

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Speaker 3: whole thing, throw the whole bill.

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Speaker 5: Out exactly as you can imagine. There are members of

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Speaker 5: the Senate who oppose this package, about a quarter of them,

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Speaker 5: actually more than half of Senate Republicans voted for an

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Speaker 5: initial version of this again back in February, a package

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Speaker 5: of a similar size to ninety five billion dollars, which

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Speaker 5: again included many of the same components, and so they

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Speaker 5: will be Republicans who will say, let's slow this down.

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Speaker 5: We want to vote on amendments, we want to make

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Speaker 5: changes to it. We appreciate all the houses done to

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Speaker 5: get this to us, but we have some thoughts on it.

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Speaker 5: There's certainly some Republicans here in the Senate, as there

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Speaker 5: are in the House that are skeptical of or eight

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Speaker 5: for Ukraine for instance, and so you could see us

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Speaker 5: split there members who want to slow things down at

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Speaker 5: that point. But it does sound like there is at

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Speaker 5: least a majority and likely a substantial majority of Senators

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Speaker 5: who do want to get this bill done, especially after

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Speaker 5: Iron's attack on Israel. That has really created a lot

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Speaker 5: of the political pressure to get this bill done, because

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Speaker 5: you know that Israel package has been combined with the

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Speaker 5: Ukraine portion at this point and has.

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Speaker 4: Been from months.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned that seventy vote count last time when the

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Speaker 3: Senate did this back in February. We've wasted basically a

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Speaker 3: lot of time here, Zach, because this bill looks a

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Speaker 3: lot like that one did without the border compromise attached.

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Speaker 4: But it does have something.

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Speaker 3: That the Senate built it not, and that's the divest

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Speaker 3: or baned TikTok component here, it's in the so called sidecar.

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Speaker 3: And we know that senators many cases were very wary

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Speaker 3: about passing this as a standalone. What are you hearing

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Speaker 3: as they face the prospect of voting to divest or

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Speaker 3: ban TikTok at the risk of funding for Ukraine and Israel.

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Speaker 5: The realm, the real conflict at this point on the

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Speaker 5: TikTok bill, according to Sena Commerce Chair Maria Campwell, who

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Speaker 5: was seen as one of the obstacles to that TikTok

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Speaker 5: bill from passing the Senate, was it actually increases the

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Speaker 5: length of time that it gives Byte Dance to divest

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Speaker 5: from TikTok, and it goes from six months in the

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Speaker 5: original bill to one year, which he thought would be

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Speaker 5: enough time to find a new buyer potentially, you know,

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Speaker 5: in the US or elsewhere, at least not a Chinese buyer,

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Speaker 5: which would eliminate some of the national security concerns that

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Speaker 5: that TikTok has raised with lawmakers, you know, banning TikTok

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Speaker 5: from federal devices for instance, you know, Capitol Hill employees,

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Speaker 5: Biden administration employees already can't have TikTok on their phones.

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Speaker 5: This bill would go a lot farther and would actually

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Speaker 5: say no Americans, No American devices can have TikTok on

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Speaker 5: them as long as bike Dance is still the owner.

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Speaker 5: So now that that length of time, that time frame

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Speaker 5: between when the bill would be enacted and when the

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Speaker 5: ban or force de vestiture would go into effect, that

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Speaker 5: the ones that that's been extended. That has allowed the

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Speaker 5: bill to look pretty good for prospects here.

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Speaker 6: In the Senate.

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Speaker 4: Fascinating, Zach, what's the timeline today? What are you hearing?

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Speaker 4: At least we get this done today. Are we back tomorrow?

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Speaker 5: It could slip until tomorrow. It could be very late tonight.

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Speaker 5: Not to get into too much of the weeds, but

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Speaker 5: this sixty cloture threshold basically sets thirty hours maximum of debate.

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Speaker 5: But one senator can't hold up all of it. They

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Speaker 5: only get an hour each, and so it depends on

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Speaker 5: how many senators. At this point, I want to try

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Speaker 5: to slow this bill down as long as possible. Raise

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Speaker 5: the debate, whether it be about the Ukraine portion, if

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Speaker 5: you're a Republican or if you're Senator Bernie Sanders, the

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Speaker 5: Independent of Roman wants to talk about some of the

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Speaker 5: offense of weaponry that he opposes including in this package.

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Speaker 5: Given how Israel's conducted its war and gauzes since the

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Speaker 5: October seventh attack by Hamas on Israel, they want to

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Speaker 5: try to drag out that debate. But there's enough members

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Speaker 5: who want to get back to recess, which is supposed

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Speaker 5: to be going on this week, go to seek their constituents,

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Speaker 5: go to see their families, and I imagine you see

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Speaker 5: a lot of that time yielded back. And so we'll

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Speaker 5: know in the next couple of hours what the timeline

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Speaker 5: looks like, but it could be a very light late

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Speaker 5: night here on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, I love getting into the weeds, Zach.

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Speaker 3: That's why we love pulling the in here. It's good

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Speaker 3: to see Zach Cohen. Good luck tonight. You might need

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Speaker 3: a little caffeine. It sounds like Bloomberg Government's Congress reporter

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Speaker 3: Zach Cohen with us live here on balance of power.

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Speaker 3: So you know, by the time we go to bed tonight,

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Speaker 3: I guess we'll have a pretty good sense of this,

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Speaker 3: but it won't be lasting beyond tomorrow when the President

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Speaker 3: has promised to sign this. So it does seem while

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Speaker 3: we have to go through the motions. So we've got

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Speaker 3: to clear a couple of hurdles here. The die has

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Speaker 3: been cast, and I'm curious what Bob Inglis thinks about

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Speaker 3: all of this. Watch from Afar in South Carolina. Former

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Speaker 3: Republican Congressman. He's now executive director of republic n e

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Speaker 3: n dot org and Congressman, it's great to have you

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Speaker 3: with us today on Balance of Power. I want to

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Speaker 3: back up just a day and talk about what happened

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Speaker 3: in the House. Actually it's a couple of days, forgive me.

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Speaker 4: At this point.

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Speaker 3: It was over the weekend when Mike Johnson actually brought

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Speaker 3: these four bills to the floor, got him passed in

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Speaker 3: the face of a threat to fire him. Is he

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Speaker 3: going to end up looking like the smartest guy in

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Speaker 3: the room cutting these into separate pieces, getting them past,

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Speaker 3: shipping it to the Senate and basically the same form

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Speaker 3: that Joe Biden asked for months ago. All the while

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Speaker 3: it seems like he's keeping his job.

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Speaker 4: Bob, what do you see?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: I think probably so. And you know, it's really sort

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Speaker 7: of us as Americans recognizing the gift we've got in

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Speaker 7: our history. You know, in that chamber, that speaker Johnson

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Speaker 7: presides over. There are only two portraits, one of George Washington,

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Speaker 7: of course. The other is a Marquis de Lafayette, the

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Speaker 7: Frenchman who helped George Washington and who helped bring in

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Speaker 7: the French into the fight that we were having with

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Speaker 7: the British. If it weren't for the French help, we

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Speaker 7: wouldn't have made it. And so it's sort of appropriate

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Speaker 7: that that's right now in the House Chamber, those two

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Speaker 7: portraits are hanging, and that's what's happening. We are helping

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Speaker 7: a startup called Ukraine fight a world power called Russia,

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Speaker 7: and so it's really less coming to recognize our history

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Speaker 7: and our obligation to really to history to sort of

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Speaker 7: repay the favor.

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Speaker 3: I love the optics that your painting there. What happened

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Speaker 3: to Mike Johnson over the past couple of months. Was

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Speaker 3: it the classified intelligence briefings, was the meetings with foreign leaders?

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Speaker 3: Or was it just getting covered from Donald Trump in

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Speaker 3: the end that brought him to this point?

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Speaker 7: You know, I think it is a fascinating thing because

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Speaker 7: I think what it is is his studying leadership. What

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Speaker 7: happens is, you know, when you don't have any real

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Speaker 7: authority or power. You can just sound off and say

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Speaker 7: all kinds of things, but when you realize, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 7: I've got power here, I really need to act responsibly.

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Speaker 7: And I think that's what Mike Johnson has done. He's

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Speaker 7: acted responsibly, and it's the sort of the growing up

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Speaker 7: that happens when somebody actually comes out of the hinter

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Speaker 7: lands and into real power. He's got a real power.

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Speaker 7: He's a Speaker of the House of Representatives, and he's functioning.

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Speaker 7: He's making the House function the way it should, which

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Speaker 7: is put it on the floor, let the people's representatives vote,

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Speaker 7: and let's see how it goes. And interestingly enough, it

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Speaker 7: went with a lot of Democrat and Republican agreement. And

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Speaker 7: then there's some people that disagree. That's fine, they get

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Speaker 7: to hear there, we get to hear them. But leadership

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Speaker 7: requires real thought and carrying through on things that matter.

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Speaker 3: I'm really taken by how many people are offended by

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Speaker 3: that congressman threatening to fire the speaker over this. We

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Speaker 3: keep hearing from people coming on this program talking about

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Speaker 3: a coalition government that we now have. We're all going

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Speaker 3: to be speaking with English accents here at some point, what.

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Speaker 4: Do you make of that. Is it a coalition government

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Speaker 4: or is it just a functioning government?

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Speaker 7: Well, it wouldn't be I think it's a functioning government.

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Speaker 7: And I think if you asked most Americans, they'd say,

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Speaker 7: isn't that great? I mean, you do have activists on

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Speaker 7: both sides, on the left and on the right. And

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Speaker 7: the problem really that we're having is American finding solutions

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Speaker 7: to things like climate change, for example, is that the

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Speaker 7: politicians have to play to those activists, and those activists

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Speaker 7: they really don't want solutions, They just want to sound off.

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Speaker 7: And so most Americans actually want solutions. And you know,

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Speaker 7: in climate change, for example, the water's coming up, they

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Speaker 7: want a solution. And so as you can really help

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Speaker 7: you if somebody's sounding off way over the left or

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Speaker 7: sounding off way over in the right, now, it's not

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Speaker 7: going to help you at all. The water's coming up.

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Speaker 3: We got a break with your party when it comes

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Speaker 3: to the issue of climate change.

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Speaker 4: What's next.

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Speaker 3: We're going to see Mike Johnson bring a climate bill

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Speaker 3: to the floor.

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Speaker 7: That'd be great, wouldn't it, Because really that would be terrific.

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Speaker 7: That's the kind of leadership that we would expect when

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Speaker 7: somebody grows up, and I think he is growing up

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Speaker 7: and I'm impressed. I don't really know him, but I'm

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Speaker 7: very glad for what I'm seeing. And I think I've

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Speaker 7: seen it before and we'll see it again. Is that

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Speaker 7: once people get power and are actually called on to

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Speaker 7: perform a valid function rather than act like one of

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Speaker 7: these bomb throwers, they don't have any power. Do is

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Speaker 7: just talk to media outlets and generate money for themselves

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Speaker 7: and their own campaigns. That's not leadership. And so it's

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Speaker 7: really great to see the house functioning.

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Speaker 4: Sounds like you miss it.

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Speaker 3: The thing is, Mike Johnson's got a big bodyguard who

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Speaker 3: walks everywhere with him in the school yard right now,

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Speaker 3: and that's Donald Trump. Donald Trump can be pretty volatile

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Speaker 3: about the way he feels about people. What happens when

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Speaker 3: he wakes up one morning and decides this isn't worth it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

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Speaker 7: That's what I wonder if he'll ever grow up, frankly,

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Speaker 7: and whether he'll ever realize, hey, you know what you

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Speaker 7: had power for those four years. You could have done

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Speaker 7: something with it. But you know, I don't know. I

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Speaker 7: think it's not his stick. His stick seems to be

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Speaker 7: more to just play to a crowd that and and

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Speaker 7: take a bow and feed his personality needs. But you know,

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Speaker 7: maybe maybe he could grow up.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, But we.

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Speaker 7: As Americans need to insist on leaders growing up and

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Speaker 7: saying listen, well, we want solutions. We don't want all

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Speaker 7: this talk. We want solutions. And it really isn't coming

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Speaker 7: upon us. You know, most people say Congress don't listen

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Speaker 7: to us. Actually they do. They listen very carefully. And

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Speaker 7: what they've heard us saying is from the activists, the

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Speaker 7: left wing activist, the right wing activist, we want you

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Speaker 7: to go up there and rail against the other side.

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Speaker 7: Oh yeah, we can do that, and don't worry. We

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Speaker 7: don't need to do anything. But if we told them, no,

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Speaker 7: we need you to do something, they do it.

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Speaker 3: All of that said, if you were still on the

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Speaker 3: House floor, would do you expect Democrats to vote to

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Speaker 3: protect Mike Johnson if it came to it.

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Speaker 7: Yes, And that will be the test of whether the

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Speaker 7: Democrats are growing up, And it really is a crucial test.

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Speaker 7: I thought they should have done that in the case

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Speaker 7: of Kevin McCarthy, and they did not. So now they've

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Speaker 7: got a chance to show that, no, really, they do

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Speaker 7: put the country first, and in this case it's up

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Speaker 7: to them. It will be up to them because of

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Speaker 7: the very small margin on the Republican side. So it

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Speaker 7: is incumbent on Democrats to grow up and to say, hey,

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Speaker 7: this about the country and us fulfilling our obligations as

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Speaker 7: really stewards of that message of freedom that France helped

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Speaker 7: us with and we won. Now Ukraine's doing that and

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Speaker 7: we need to help them against this Russian thing. And

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Speaker 7: so it really is a moment for Democrats to decide

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Speaker 7: country or partisanship and do you really want to throw

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Speaker 7: the country into chaos with another speaker election that will

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Speaker 7: go on forever. Really is that what you want to do?

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Speaker 7: Or do you want to accept the reality? Oh this

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Speaker 7: is sort of a consensus government, and what's wrong with that?

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Speaker 3: I think we just spawned a new sag growing up

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Speaker 3: with Bob Ingless. Let's do this again, Bob the former

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Speaker 3: congressman from South Carolina, Republican dot Org.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of

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Speaker 1: Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and then royd.

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Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 8: Joe and myself in watch and wait mode as we

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Speaker 8: keep an eye on the Senate floor waiting for these

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Speaker 8: procedural votes to kick off. We need a cloture vote first,

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Speaker 8: show sixty members need to vote yes for forward progress.

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Speaker 8: Ultimately we'll get to final package. We just don't know

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Speaker 8: quite when we will get to the final passage of

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Speaker 8: this package. Ninety five billion dollars in aid to US

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Speaker 8: allies and of course a divest or ban bill for

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Speaker 8: TikTok in question today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they stitched them all together, separate votes in the

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Speaker 3: House and now one big block here for the Senate point.

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Speaker 3: This must be deja vu for a lot of these senators.

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Speaker 3: They're already voted on this. Basically that was back in February,

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Speaker 3: remembering that was considered doa in the House at the time.

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Speaker 3: They basically rebuilt that entire bill, put all the pieces

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Speaker 3: back together, and now senators are asked again. So while

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Speaker 3: this is procedural, we're going to look closely at the

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Speaker 3: closure vote to get a sense of how close it

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Speaker 3: might come to that seventy threshold that we saw last time.

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Speaker 4: Megan Scully is leading.

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Speaker 3: Our coverage on this as always here in Washington and

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Speaker 3: our Bloomberg Bureau Congressional News team leader, Megan, it's great

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Speaker 3: to see it. I mentioned pulling out the cots later.

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Speaker 3: Is it one of those nights or do we end

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Speaker 3: up coming back tomorrow because these guys want.

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Speaker 9: To go home, right, They do want to go home,

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Speaker 9: and the jet fumes always yes, powerful motivator. Like I say,

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Speaker 9: we're hearing late evening tonight, which could mean seven pm

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Speaker 9: or eleven PM, and it seems like it will be

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Speaker 9: before sunrise.

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Speaker 8: Okay, okay, well there you go. Of course, we may

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Speaker 8: have a few amendments to get through. Fir Steven Dennis,

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Speaker 8: who of course is our Senate whisper here at Boomberg,

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Speaker 8: says that they're scheduled now at one point fifteen to

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Speaker 8: vote on Senator Mike Lee's amendment. That's an effort that

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Speaker 8: is almost certain to fail. Basically, all of these amendment votes, Megan,

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Speaker 8: are likely to fail. But I guess it's just you

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Speaker 8: got to be seen in the act of trying if

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Speaker 8: you're these senators. Yes, it's essentially part of the deal

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Speaker 8: to get this.

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Speaker 9: Believe it or not, this is an expedited process that

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Speaker 9: the Senate is undergoing.

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Speaker 8: It could drag out for a few more days.

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Speaker 9: So in order to get this agreement, this time agreement,

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Speaker 9: they had to agree to allow these conservative Republicans to

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Speaker 9: offer amendments that, as you said, will fail. If they

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Speaker 9: were to pass, that would cause huge problems because then

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Speaker 9: it would have to go back to the House for amendment.

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Speaker 8: But we are not expecting that.

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Speaker 3: Are we hearing hemming and hawing about TikTok or everyone

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Speaker 3: is kind of hiding behind the fact that this has

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Speaker 3: been extended to up to a year for divestiture because

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Speaker 3: there were a lot of Senators not prepared to vote

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Speaker 3: to pass that when it was a standalone bill.

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Speaker 9: Sure, so Senator Can't Well of Washington, who's the chairwoman

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Speaker 9: of the Commerce Committee. A lot of the changes that

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Speaker 9: she had asked to be implemented, including the longer time

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Speaker 9: for the divestiture, we're implemented in.

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Speaker 8: The House bill.

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Speaker 9: So she is now on board with it. So we're

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Speaker 9: expecting to see pretty much, you know, strong support across

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Speaker 9: both parties, with the you know outliers like Senator rand

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Speaker 9: Paul and Senator Mike Lee.

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Speaker 8: Could this actually get more than the seventy votes this

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Speaker 8: very similar package garnered the first time around. Could we

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Speaker 8: actually see that bipartisan majority expanding when this vote finally

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Speaker 8: happens We could.

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Speaker 10: I don't.

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Speaker 9: I haven't run the numbers exactly, but there's certainly something

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Speaker 9: in here for just about everyone to like, which is

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Speaker 9: why it passed the House in.

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Speaker 8: Those sort of in parts in parts yes.

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Speaker 9: And so with the Senate voting on it in one

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Speaker 9: comprehensive bill, you know, if you support Israel, if you

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Speaker 9: support Gaza, if you support Ukraine, there's something in there.

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Speaker 7: For you to vote for.

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Speaker 3: We're hearing the term coalition government on the daily now

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Speaker 3: in this program. At least it's not a formal power

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Speaker 3: sharing agreement. But with what we have seen over the

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Speaker 3: past couple of days with Mike Johnson, is it worth

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Speaker 3: that type of framing or is this just a bipartisan

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Speaker 3: government working and no one recognizes it?

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Speaker 9: You know, I think it is a bipartisan government working,

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Speaker 9: and this is how Congress should work. We just haven't

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Speaker 9: seen it work this way in quite some time. And

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Speaker 9: what you saw happen in the House, while very unusual,

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Speaker 9: getting Democrats on board to push this bill through over

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Speaker 9: various procedures that ultraconservatives were opposing.

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Speaker 8: That's deal making.

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Speaker 9: That's kind of good old fashioned deal making that we

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Speaker 9: just don't see happen in Washington very often anymore.

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Speaker 8: Well, and if you listen to Congressman Marjorie Taylor Green,

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Speaker 8: she maybe wouldn't like to see that continue happening because

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Speaker 8: she thinks Mike Johnson is essentially rolling over for the

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Speaker 8: Democrats and may still very well pursue this motion to

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Speaker 8: vacate for that reason. And yet we did hear once

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Speaker 8: again from former President Donald Trump, who was speaking on

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Speaker 8: a radio show yesterday talking about he thinks Mike Johnson's

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Speaker 8: a good guy. He has a one vote margin, trying

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Speaker 8: to kind of paint the picture of the reality is

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Speaker 8: that Republicans are working with. If Trump's not on board

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Speaker 8: with the motion to vacate, can Marjorie Taylor Green realistically

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Speaker 8: move forward with it? I think it's very difficult.

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Speaker 9: She's obviously very close to the former president, so I

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Speaker 9: don't see her moving forward without his tacit approval. Now,

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Speaker 9: Trump can change his mind on somebody pretty closely. We've

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Speaker 9: seen that happen in the last seven years. So we'll

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Speaker 9: see what plays out over the next few weeks, but

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Speaker 9: as of right now, he's standing pretty steadfastly behind the speaker.

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Speaker 9: I would say his comments yesterday were even stronger than

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Speaker 9: the comments he made were ago.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, all right, Well you're in for a long night,

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Speaker 8: it seems. Megan. Thank you very much for spending some

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Speaker 8: of this day.

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Speaker 4: Bringing the pizzas for the Congress.

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Speaker 8: Pizza, caffeine, bring it all. Megan's scully leads our congressional

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Speaker 8: coverage here a Bloomberg Thank you so much. Now, of course, Joe,

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Speaker 8: we've talked extensively about what the ultimate passage of this

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Speaker 8: bill will specifically mean for Ukraine's war effort immediately, as

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Speaker 8: the Biden administration says, they're all set up to get

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Speaker 8: things quickly onto the ground for the Ukrainian war effort,

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Speaker 8: but it's also an Israeli war effort that the US

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Speaker 8: is attempting to support here with nearly twenty billion dollars

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Speaker 8: in aid to Israel as part of this package, and

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Speaker 8: that is on the note. We turn now to Hagar Shamali.

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Speaker 8: She is former national security formerly with the National Security Council,

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Speaker 8: now the founder of Greenwich Media Strategies. She also is

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Speaker 8: an adjunct professor at Columbia University School of International and

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Speaker 8: Public Affairs. Haguard, It's always great to have you. What

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Speaker 8: will these billions of dollars in aid for Israel immediately

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Speaker 8: due to the ongoing conflict we are seeing Israel engaged

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Speaker 8: in with frankly, not just Tamas, but other Iranian proxies,

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Speaker 8: including recently Aroun itself.

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Speaker 11: Sure well, the way anybody should view usaid to Israel

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Speaker 11: is in the context of qualitary military edge, maintaining and

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Speaker 11: supporting their qualitative military edge. That means, in no normal speak,

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Speaker 11: that we're trying to ensure that Israel always has the

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Speaker 11: upper hand when it comes to defense in the region.

438
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Speaker 11: We know they're surrounded by enemies and our non need

439
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 11: alliance that dates back to nineteen eighty seven, that is

440
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 11: the agreement, ultimately, is that we work to maintain their

441
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 11: qualitative military edge, not that we try to promote certain behavior.

442
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 11: And so what that's going to do in this case,

443
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 11: On one hand, it's going to allow them in certain

444
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 11: in general from the sixty thousand foot level to continue

445
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 11: their operations inside Gaza. On the flip side, you're going

446
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 11: to have as well. It's going to be coupled with

447
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 11: dialogue and talks on the United States side that who

448
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 11: communicate their concerns to the Israeli government in terms of

449
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,199
Speaker 11: their military strategic approach inside Gaza.

450
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 12: So on one hand you have that.

451
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 11: And on the other you have a lot of it,

452
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 11: in particular going to go that's going to go to

453
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 11: the Iron Dome and to the other defensive systems that

454
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 11: Israel maintains, especially following what you saw coming from Iran

455
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 11: only a couple of weeks ago.

456
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 3: Regard just in the past couple of days, we've seen

457
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 3: a few remarkable headlines coming out of Israel. The head

458
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 3: of Israel's military intelligence unit has resigned, and there's reporting

459
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 3: that the US State Department is now preparing to announce

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 3: sanctions against a battalion within the IDF for human rights violations.

461
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 3: Considering the very strained relationship that we've talked about already

462
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: between Joe Biden and Benjamin Ettia who leading up to

463
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 3: this moment, how would you describe this moment we're in now.

464
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 12: It's a little weird. I'm not going to lie to you.

465
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 12: That's the only term I can think of.

466
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 11: When I saw the news saying that the Biden adminstration

467
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 11: was preparing sanctions on this one unit within the IDF.

468
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 11: It's not that I approved at all in any way

469
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 11: what that particular unit is doing. That unit, as far

470
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 11: as I understand, is a unit that is manned or

471
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 11: comprised of a far right Orthodox individuals who have been

472
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 11: previously accused of human rights abuses in the West Bank. Fine,

473
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 11: but Israel is an ally, and so saying when you

474
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 11: have a problem or concern, or you venly oppose something

475
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 11: that an ally is doing, typically you hammer that out

476
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 11: in conversation, in dialogue. And that's why I find it

477
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 11: a weird use of the sanctions tool. Now, sanctions in

478
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 11: this regard what ends up happening. If you sanction that

479
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 11: one unit, that not only means that the United States

480
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 11: is not able to give weaponry to that unit, and

481
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 11: they will prove that, they will have to continue proving that,

482
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 11: but the owners will also fall on the Israeli Israeli

483
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 11: military and government to also prove that or ensure that

484
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 11: no weaponry, that is US weaponry, is going to that unit.

485
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 11: So on on that front, I can support what the

486
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 11: US is trying to achieve. I think I understand the

487
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 11: broader goal. I understand it because the US is trying

488
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 11: to say, hey, that unit and in general, settler activity

489
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 11: in the West Bank undermines you US national security objectives

490
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 11: because we see a two state.

491
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 12: Solution as the long term sustainable solution to.

492
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 11: This conflict, and this settler activity directly undermines that goal.

493
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 11: I agree with all of that. I just find sanctions

494
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 11: are a bit of an aggressive tone to take at

495
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 11: this stage, when Israel is in the middle of all this,

496
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 11: at this time, to take towards this, I would have

497
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 11: rather seen that handled in private conversations, even publicly.

498
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 12: By the way, it's.

499
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 11: Fine, and as the war dies down, if it remains

500
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 11: a problem, then you sanction them. Fine, and then you've

501
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 11: made your point loud and clear. But at this time,

502
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 11: it just further highlights the strain that you're seeing and

503
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 11: puts it out.

504
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 6: In the open.

505
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

506
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 8: Well, we've seen a lot put out in the open publicly, Higar,

507
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 8: including what was escalating tension between bb NET and Yahoo

508
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 8: and President Biden specifically over the issue of RAFA as

509
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 8: the US pushes Israel not to potentially put at risk

510
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 8: the lives of the million plus Palace Indians that are there,

511
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 8: but now, especially that it seems the immediate direct conflict

512
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 8: with Iran. Iran may have been wrapped up at this

513
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 8: time for Israel, should we expect that it is Rafa

514
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 8: next and potentially soon.

515
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 11: Well raf the airstrikes on Rafa have already begun on

516
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 11: the part of Israel. And what's interesting, and I'm glad

517
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 11: you're covering it because the other given what you had

518
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 11: to be Iran and then and certainly given what you're

519
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 11: having now with protests here across the nation and at

520
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 11: universities including the university I teach at, it's the focus

521
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 11: seems to be on that and not the fact that

522
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 11: that things are continuing in Gaza, in particularly.

523
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 12: The air strikes on Raffa.

524
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 11: Now you have air strikes on Raffa, but we haven't

525
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 11: seen this kind of full scale invasion and operation that

526
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 11: we've all been waiting for or anticipating. But inevitably it's

527
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 11: going to go down that road. I believe it will

528
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 11: go down that road. They the Israeli is claim the

529
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 11: Israeli government claims that they're going to be evacuating citizens,

530
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 11: but we haven't seen it yet, and so it remains

531
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 11: a bit murky.

532
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 12: At least from the public view as.

533
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 11: To where the Israeli military is headed with RAFA. Clearly

534
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 11: they've made a decision to go in. That is not surprising.

535
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 11: They've said that. I never had any reason to doubt it.

536
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 11: But at what point will they be evacuating citizens in

537
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 11: order to ramp those operations up is unclear to me.

538
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 11: That said, they have also said that that would indicate

539
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 11: the end of their high intensity portion of the war,

540
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 11: and so we are hopefully reaching an end to that

541
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 11: at some point soon.

542
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 12: But RAFA I expected to intensify further.

543
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 3: You've got members of the Senate Tom Cott and Josh

544
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 3: Holly calling on Joe Biden to send the National Guard

545
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 3: into Morningside Heights.

546
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 4: Can you talk to us Higar about how this is

547
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 4: going to end?

548
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 3: On the campus of Columbia University and other campuses were

549
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 3: coming up on the fourth of May, which is the

550
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 3: anniversary of the Kent State shootings.

551
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 4: This is very real right now.

552
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 12: Well, how it ends is very unclear, and I can

553
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 12: say that with a lot of first.

554
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 11: Hand experience being a an adjunct professor at Columbia. Right

555
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 11: now it is a very difficult situation on campus and

556
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 11: the administration.

557
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 12: Is really grappling and struggling with its response.

558
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 11: Because on one hand, you had the response last week

559
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 11: where they invited the New York Police Department to remove

560
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 11: protesters after.

561
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 12: They had been repeatedly and repeatedly warned.

562
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 11: That they were in violation of rules, that they had

563
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 11: no right to stay there, and that if they didn't move,

564
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 11: they would be forcimply.

565
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 12: Removed, and that's what happened.

566
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 11: Obviously, I was in support of that because I believe

567
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 11: a university is it's a private institution, it's a private campus,

568
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 11: and while students have the right to protest and exercise

569
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 11: free speech, they don't have the right to violate Columbia

570
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 11: rules and guidelines. And they certainly don't have the right

571
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 11: to create a hostile environment for other students who are

572
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 11: on campus whose main priority is to study and learn.

573
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 11: And so they were removed, and that removal obviously has

574
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 11: created this reaction where the encampment is back. The protests

575
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 11: have now spread to other universities, and you can see

576
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 11: the university now really grappled with well, since that was

577
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 11: a reaction to the police, do we double down on

578
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 11: that or do we dialogue with them?

579
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 12: And that seems to be the approach they're taking.

580
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 11: Now they've allowed the protests, they've said that they're going

581
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 11: to dialogue with the protesters. I can tell you that

582
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,959
Speaker 11: the protesters are not unified. Their demands are absurd. Some

583
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 11: of their demands at least, they're very disorganized, and so

584
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 11: they come off extremely unserious in negotiations because they're students,

585
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 11: by the way, at the end of the day. But

586
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 11: that they're going to dialogue with them, and at the

587
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 11: same time they shut things down to go virtual for

588
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 11: classes and offered escorts, for example, for Jewish students attending satyrs,

589
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 11: and that to me is wrong. I don't understand as

590
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 11: a professor why I should go virtual and my students

591
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 11: because certain students are creating a ard.

592
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 3: Comeback when we have more time. Hagar Shamali, this is Bloomberg.

593
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cats

594
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: just live week days at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay

595
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: and then roun Ato with the Bloomberg Business app demand

596
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

597
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 8: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where

598
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 8: we're broadcasting live on Bloomberg and television and radio from

599
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 8: the studio, while we also kind of wish we could

600
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 8: be a fly on the wall in the US Senate

601
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 8: right now, because there's some debate happening on the floor,

602
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 8: at least speeches on the floor right now. The independent

603
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 8: Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, is talking about this ninety

604
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 8: five billion dollar aid package that is getting set for

605
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 8: a few procedural votes and ultimately eventually final passage we

606
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 8: expect later today or at some point wednesday.

607
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: Joe.

608
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 8: We just had the Republican Senator from Utah, Mike Lee,

609
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 8: talking as well. What we're going to need to find

610
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 8: here is some agreement on what amendments they're going to

611
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 8: vote on and when, then a cloture vote, and then

612
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 8: ultimately the real deal.

613
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 4: This is the sausage being made.

614
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 3: This is the part you're not supposed to see, but

615
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: we're showing it to you live from Washington.

616
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 4: Here.

617
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 3: Procedural votes that will lead to real votes, and it

618
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: might be really late tonight, Kaylee, maybe early in the morning.

619
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 3: They're talking about whether to bring in the cots. They'll

620
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 3: definitely be bringing in the fast food and the wine.

621
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 3: You didn't hear it from me, but that's the way

622
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: it goes around here. But yes, making an agreement here

623
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 3: on how to use the floor time satisfying members of

624
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: both parties in this case, Kayleie, you just walk through

625
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: that pretty well. There are Democrats and Republicans who want

626
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: to be heard today, but it is not expected to

627
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: change the outcome of this vote, and that's what we

628
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: want to talk about with our panel. Rick Davis is

629
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 3: with US Republican strategists Bloomberg Politics.

630
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 4: Contributed to join today by Pat Dennis.

631
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: Of course, back with us today, Democratic strategist and founder

632
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: and president American Bridge twenty first Century.

633
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 4: Great to see you both here, Rick.

634
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 3: This is a foregone conclusion that these bills are going

635
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 3: to pass, but what we're about to hear from the

636
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 3: Mike Lees and Bernie Sanders of the world does tell

637
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: us quite a lot about the debate around these bills.

638
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: And that's not going to end when the President signs them,

639
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: is it.

640
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 2: Now?

641
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 13: This committing will continue, people will continue to campaign on it. Look,

642
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 13: it's a issue that the American public is relatively undecided about.

643
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: Right.

644
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 13: They've been moving around quite a bit on issues related

645
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 13: to Israel and to Ukraine, and so I think these

646
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 13: members want to start staking out positions. They're headed into

647
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 13: an election year and they want to make sure that

648
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 13: they get their bite in before the end of the weekend.

649
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 13: But it's really a trading range on votes. You know,

650
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 13: last vote on this was seventy votes in the Senate

651
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 13: out of one hundred. It's plus or minus three or

652
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 13: four votes, and I think that's where we're going to

653
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 13: wind up tonight.

654
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 8: So as we're seeing some of these other senators taken

655
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 8: some time on the floor, including Republican Senator Mike Lee,

656
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 8: who we've mentioned, we did here on the floor earlier today,

657
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 8: pat from Senator Mitch McConnell, who is the outgoing Senate

658
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 8: Minority leader. He of course will no longer retain that

659
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 8: leadership position after the election, but he has been fighting

660
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 8: the fight on getting Ukraine aid through this chamber through

661
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 8: longer'smore broadly, loudly and vocally, sometimes in the face of

662
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 8: serious opposition from members of his own party. We've talked

663
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 8: a lot about how this package passing is a victory

664
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 8: for President Biden, but is it too for Mitch McConnell potentially.

665
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 6: I mean, he's on his way out.

666
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 10: It seems like he's sort of you know, maybe trying

667
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 10: to work on some of the stuff he actually believes.

668
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 10: But you know, to a large extent, the MAGA faction

669
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 10: within the Republican Party can trace its roots and its

670
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 10: power back to Mitch McConnell in a lot of ways.

671
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 10: And those are the ones who really are the reason

672
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 10: this bill is six months later than it should be,

673
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 10: after you know, significant setbacks in Ukraine and people dying.

674
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 6: It didn't have to happen. And look, I'm glad we're

675
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 6: getting this bill passed.

676
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 10: I think Congress starting to work together and like actually

677
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 10: get some bipartisan stuff done as a testament to Joe

678
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 10: Biden's leadership.

679
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 6: And I'm hopefully he continued.

680
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 3: Just said a name that I haven't heard anyone mentioned

681
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: in a while, Paton, that's Mitch McConnell, Rick Davis. What

682
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: does Mitch McConnell do with this moment, having stood his

683
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: ground and he's got something to show for it in

684
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: this case, does he circle the wagons again? And I

685
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 3: know that there's a battle here for the next leader,

686
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: but while he's in charge, circle the wagons here and

687
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: say take this lesson. You might want to listen to

688
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: your leader next time.

689
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think that this is as much about his

690
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 13: legacy as it is about the future. If there are

691
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 13: two winners in this entire drama for the last six

692
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 13: months around Ukraine funding, it's been Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.

693
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 13: Both have stug firm with their competing constituencies. Joe Biden

694
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 13: certainly took a lot of gas from the left on

695
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 13: his support for Israel, and Mitch McConnell has had to

696
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 13: plow back the advancing populist mega Republican tiede in the

697
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 13: Senate by holding firm on this, and they can both

698
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 13: really feel good about the fact that they've done something special.

699
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 13: I would say, you know, Mitch McConnell will probably not

700
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 13: be remembered for what I think is one of the

701
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 13: more historic achievements of the Senate, which is a bipartisan

702
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 13: bill on this issue that included the strongest title we've

703
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 13: had on border security in thirty or forty years.

704
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 14: And you know, it.

705
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 13: Wasn't MAGA in Senate that stopped that from happening.

706
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 6: It got passed.

707
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 13: It's the MAGA right in the end, Donald Trump really

708
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 13: specifically who deserves credit for killing that in the House.

709
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 13: And we could actually be celebrating a really significant event

710
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 13: here if they had kept that title.

711
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 8: In Well, Rick, you bring up former President Trump and

712
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 8: the Maga Wright in the House. We know some members

713
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 8: of that faction of the Republican Party, namely Marjorie Taylor Green,

714
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 8: Paul Gosar, and Tom Massey would like to see the

715
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 8: House Speaker Mike Johnson potentially vacated or resign as a

716
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 8: result of this foreign aid making it through that chamber.

717
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 8: And yet it seems Donald Trump, for the second time,

718
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,959
Speaker 8: has stepped in to defend Mike Johnson. He was asked

719
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 8: about him on John Frederick's media network last night and

720
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 8: this is what he had to say about the House Speaker.

721
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 8: Take a listen.

722
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 15: It's a tough situation when you have one. I think

723
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 15: he's a very good man. I think he's trying very hard.

724
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 15: And again, we've got to have a big election. We've

725
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 15: got to elect some people in Congress, much more than

726
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 15: we have right now.

727
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 8: So, Rick Davis, is Donald Trump guaranteeing that Mike Johnson

728
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 8: will stay the speaker? Can Marjorie Taylor Green go against

729
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 8: the de facto leader of her party, someone who she's

730
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 8: very close with.

731
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 13: Well, I actually don't think Donald Trump can guarantee it,

732
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 13: but Hucking Jeffreys can because he's got actual notes on

733
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 13: the floor that would vote for Johnson, and I think

734
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 13: Donald Trump only has votes that would vote against Johnson.

735
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 13: Marjorie Taylor Green wasn't going anywhere with her sort of

736
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 13: show vote maneuver. Her performative politics is exactly being laid

737
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 13: bare now because there's nowhere for her to go, and

738
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 13: even Donald Trump thinks it's bad. I did have chaos

739
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 13: in the House of Representative right before an election that

740
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 13: didn't take much effort to think through that problem. So yeah,

741
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 13: I think that Donald Trump is only going where he

742
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 13: thinks is the safest place for him to go right now,

743
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 13: and that's back in Speaker Johnson. But you know he

744
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 13: backed Speaker McCarthy before throwing him to the wolves. So

745
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,959
Speaker 13: I wouldn't get too far along in my victory lap

746
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 13: if I were Speaker Johnson right.

747
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 4: Now throwing him to the wolves.

748
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 3: Indeed, look, we've got a lot to witness left today,

749
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 3: and if you're just joining us on Bloomberg Radio and TV,

750
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 3: the process has begun in the Senate. We're actually watching

751
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 3: a roll call vote take place now on a motion

752
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: to table to kill this entire package that passed the

753
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 3: House and was stitched back together again here in the Senate.

754
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 3: It is expected to pass this bill despite the efforts

755
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 3: to change it or kill it along the way, And

756
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 3: it might come hours from now, it might come a

757
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 3: lot later. All the while, Donald Trump aforementioned, is in

758
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: court today in New York for what was another half day,

759
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 3: and Joe Biden is in Tampa campaigning Pat Dennis. How

760
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 3: does Joe Biden leverage the momentum coming off of this,

761
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 3: We're all talking about Mike Johnson and his political win,

762
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 3: his political future. How does the president ride this to

763
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 3: his benefit on the campaign?

764
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 4: Trill?

765
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 10: I mean, ultimately, what is to the American people's benefit

766
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 10: is to Joe Biden's benefit. You have steady leadership, He's

767
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 10: getting this stuff passed. You know, people forget, but you

768
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 10: know Donald Trump was trying to get aid pass to

769
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 10: Ukraine and wound up trying to extort our friends and

770
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 10: ultimately got impeached to it over it.

771
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,240
Speaker 6: Which is, you know, kind of a big deal.

772
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 10: I think what you see Joe Biden doing in Florida, though,

773
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 10: is really showing the contrast between these policies where you know,

774
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 10: Congress is doing stuff that actually works, passing stuff that

775
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 10: the American people want, versus the state like Florida where

776
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 10: you have these extreme abortion bands really hurting people's quality

777
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 10: of life. And that contrast right there between the Joe

778
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 10: Biden future and the Maga future is exactly what he

779
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 10: needs to be doing.

780
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,959
Speaker 8: Just quickly, Brad, we have less than a minute left.

781
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 8: But why spend time in Florida with that message? Why

782
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,760
Speaker 8: not spend time in the swing states that are ultimately

783
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 8: going to decide whether or not you get to be

784
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 8: president for a second term.

785
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 6: I wouldn't write off Florida so quickly.

786
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 10: Look, there's a lot of discontent there with Ronda Santis' leadership,

787
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 10: with Trump's leadership. And yes, there are other states. There's

788
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 10: North Carolina, there's Michigan. My organization's going to be focused

789
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 10: on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan in particular, and there is going

790
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 10: to be a lot of Joe Biden.

791
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 6: In all of those states. I can guarantee it.

792
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 10: So don't just think just because we're going to Florida,

793
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 10: we're not going everywhere else.

794
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 8: All right, Pat Dennis, thank you so much for joining

795
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 8: us here on Bloomberg television and radio. He, of course,

796
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 8: is American Bridge twenty first century presidentocratic strategist and Rick Davis,

797
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 8: a Republican strategist and Bloomberg Politics contributor. Today, as we

798
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 8: still Joe are keeping an eye on the Senate floor, you're.

799
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Kens Just

800
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and.

801
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: Enrouid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.

802
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

803
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

804
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: We're trying to keep you honest on Congress today, and

805
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 3: you know that's a tough job. But we're watching voting

806
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 3: get underway here in the Senate. A motion to table

807
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 3: the Foreign Aid bill that would bring money to Ukraine, Israel,

808
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: and Taiwan, also includes the TikTok Bill and some other

809
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 3: matters is likely to survive this, but we have to

810
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 3: go through the motions. There are going to be a

811
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: few procedural hurdles, including the actual cloture vote that will

812
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 3: bring us to real voting up or down on the

813
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 3: underlying bill. That's expected to happen late tonight. If today,

814
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 3: we'll go through it together and let you know, of

815
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 3: course what happens.

816
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 4: Here.

817
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. This is

818
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 3: the day Kaylee the President says he will sign it,

819
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 3: and one of the biggest backers of this effort, and

820
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: we've been in touch with them for months. Here is

821
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 3: the US Chamber of Commerce. Remembering there was a branding

822
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 3: issue with this bill. We talked so much about foreign policy, geopolitics,

823
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 3: and that's of course an enormous that's the backdrop for this,

824
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 3: but the spending is largely domestic, investing in our defense

825
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 3: industrial base.

826
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 8: Yeah, when we talk about the sixty plus billion billions

827
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,879
Speaker 8: of dollars for Ukraine, a large chunk of that isn't

828
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 8: actually being sent over to Ukraine in the form of

829
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 8: cash and suitcases. It's being fed into our defense industrial

830
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 8: base so that we can manufacture equipment, largely to fill

831
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 8: the stocks of what we already had sent over to Ukraine.

832
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 8: And this could be a juicer of the US economy

833
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 8: in many ways for that reason. So it's on that

834
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 8: note that we begin now with Neil Bradley. He is

835
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 8: executive vice president over at the US Chamber of Commerce

836
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 8: also serves as their chief policy officer. Neil, great to

837
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 8: see you here in inner Washington, DC studio. You just

838
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 8: days ago before the House passed this legislation, pend a

839
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 8: letter to them urging them to pass this because you say,

840
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 8: not only would it provide crucial funding and urgently needed

841
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 8: military assistance to our allies, it would support a more

842
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 8: robust domestic defense industrial base as well. How important is

843
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 8: it that this legislation passed for US business, for the

844
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 8: US economy, Well, it's.

845
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,359
Speaker 14: Critical when you think about our own defense industrial base.

846
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 14: So there's one buyer largely, and that is the US military.

847
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,439
Speaker 14: And when we begin to mothball weapons, when we begin

848
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 14: to slow down those supply chain lines, it takes a

849
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 14: long time to start back up. We know that we

850
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 14: are in a world that is more dangerous than it's

851
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 14: been in a long time, and so the ability to

852
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 14: modernize our defense industrial base and those supply lines is

853
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 14: critically important. And it's exactly what you just said. What

854
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 14: we're doing is sending older weapons over to Ukraine, restarting

855
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 14: our own domestic manufacturing facility, in many cases expanding them

856
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 14: to refill our own stockpiles. It's kind of one of

857
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 14: those win win situations. Not only are we helping the

858
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 14: Ukrainians and the fight against an aggressor, we're improving our

859
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 14: stockpiles of our own weapons and we're improving our domestic

860
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 14: manufacturing capacity.

861
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 3: There's a momentum here and you're referring to it. It

862
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 3: takes a long time to get it started again, as

863
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: you just said, once you'll wind it down. And there's

864
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 3: been a big conversation about under investment when it comes

865
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,720
Speaker 3: to the DIIV, the defense industrial base. With that said,

866
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: if we're firing up the engines again here and in

867
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: some cases expanding capacity. Raytheon has talked about the need

868
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: to expand its manufacturing capacity. Where does that momentum bring

869
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 3: us in the years ahead.

870
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 14: Well, it's a question of what do we need to

871
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 14: sustain our own national security. Ultimately, at the end of

872
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 14: the day, that's what's.

873
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:54,240
Speaker 4: Driving sustained jobs.

874
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 14: It does sustain jobs. But listen, the driving impetus isn't

875
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 14: to become a self gener to understobs machine. It really

876
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 14: is our own national security. But we realize that when

877
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 14: we make those investments, we want to maintain some base

878
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 14: levels of capacity. And I think what experts have concluded

879
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 14: is that we let that capacity, our ability to produce

880
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 14: these things and get to a point where it made

881
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 14: it harder to restart and ultimately was endangering our own security.

882
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,879
Speaker 14: So I suspect that as we get through this moment

883
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 14: in period, we're going to figure out what's the right

884
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 14: sustainable level that keeps supply chains operating, that keeps these

885
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 14: facilities operat and prevents a shortage, that prevents shortages and

886
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 14: matches our needs. The other interesting thing that's going on

887
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 14: here is, like in every other aspect of the economy,

888
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 14: weapons systems are constantly advancing, and so you know, if

889
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,399
Speaker 14: you are if your stockpile consists of a model that's

890
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 14: ten years old, it is antiquated by today's standard. And

891
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 14: the only way that you can keep up with the

892
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 14: standards and the technology today is to be constantly innovating

893
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 14: and manufacturing. So what we're building today is much better

894
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 14: for our own national security, much more technologically sophisticated than

895
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 14: the stockpiles that we're drawing down.

896
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,399
Speaker 8: Well, I'm glad you mentioned technology specifically, because it's worth noting.

897
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 8: While the Chamber is advocated for this package for its

898
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:21,320
Speaker 8: national security merits, this is not just funding for allies.

899
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 8: There's been a few other things attached, including the TikTok

900
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 8: divest Or band Bill, an expanded window. They now have

901
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 8: a year potentially for that divestiture. But this is a

902
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 8: specific private company being called out in legislation that is

903
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 8: working its way through Congress and looks like it will

904
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 8: get a signature from the President. Does the Chamber have

905
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 8: any concerns about the precedent this may set moving forward

906
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:46,240
Speaker 8: if we're now in the business of targeting specific companies

907
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 8: and telling them who can own them and who who can't,

908
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 8: and who can control their algorithms.

909
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 14: Without getting in the specifics of TikTok's owner shop.

910
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 8: Sure, just as an example.

911
00:45:55,560 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 14: As a larger question, there clearly is vulnerabil with our

912
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 14: own national security that we have to guard against, whether

913
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 14: that's foreign investment coming in or intellectual property sharing abroad.

914
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 14: And we have mechanisms for doing this. You know, in

915
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 14: the nineteen eighties late nineteen eighties, we created SCIPHIUS, the

916
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 14: Program Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States that

917
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 14: is tasked with making sure that we were viewing in

918
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 14: that case, investments into the United States on in national

919
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 14: security grounds and protecting it from politicalization. So I think

920
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 14: the important thing that we want to do is make

921
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 14: sure that we're maintaining processes that keep the US open

922
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 14: for investment, that keep the US engaged commercially with the world.

923
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 14: But when national security comes into play, is making those

924
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 14: decisions only on a national security basis, not based on

925
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 14: political consideration.

926
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 3: So well, the Chamber take a stand on a lawsuit

927
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: here is we're told this is about to enter a

928
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 3: protracted legal battle.

929
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 14: We have not opened on this particular transaction. We do

930
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 14: opine a along the strictures when people propose changes to

931
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 14: Sciphius or regulating investments abroad. We have to get the

932
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 14: system right. And if we have the system right, then

933
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 14: we can kind of resolve some of these questions that

934
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 14: have emerged about kind of the political nature.

935
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 4: Of the decision making.

936
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 8: Well, speaking of political decision making, it's also worth pointing

937
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 8: out that this TikTok bill, the supplemental funding, this has

938
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 8: taken months to get across the finish line in Congress

939
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 8: after months prior of talking about it. Has taken us

940
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 8: a long time to get to this moment. It's now

941
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 8: mid late April. We still have about seven months to

942
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,840
Speaker 8: go a little less until the election. Can we expect

943
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 8: anything else from this Congress in that intermittent time period.

944
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 8: Is there anything else they're going to be able to

945
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 8: get done or it's all campaign from here?

946
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 14: Well, let's hope it's not all campaign. Listen, we're realists.

947
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 14: We know it's an even numbered year, it's a presidential

948
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 14: election year that is going to dominate a lot of

949
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 14: the consideration. But if you think about this bill that

950
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 14: the sense processing, you're right six months ago. This should

951
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 14: have been done a long time ago. But it's been

952
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 14: the principal issue that everyone's been waiting for the House

953
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 14: to act on. The House acted on it over the weekend,

954
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 14: and now we're wrapping it up for it to go

955
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 14: to the president. The big priority that we see unfinished

956
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 14: business on Congresses to do plate is actually a tax

957
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 14: extender's bill that passed the House of Representatives overwhelming bipartisan votes,

958
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 14: something like three hundred and eighty some votes. It's now

959
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 14: sitting in the Senate. We're really looking for this may

960
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 14: work period as a chance to get it done. Importantly,

961
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 14: if it doesn't happen now, there's really no prospects for

962
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 14: it to happen next year, this year, or maybe for

963
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 14: quite a while into next year, which means that we're

964
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 14: going to keep in place tax increases that on a

965
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 14: bipartisan basis, everyone agrees shouldn't have occurred. And these have

966
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 14: real ramifications for business. You know, for small businesses that

967
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 14: make R and D spending, the median small business has

968
00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 14: seen about a thirty five percent tax increase just as

969
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 14: a result of moving from deducting R and D expenses

970
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 14: to amortizing them over five years. I can't find anyone

971
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 14: who thinks that's a good policy idea. So I have

972
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 14: no idea why we're not getting Congress to fix that.

973
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 3: We're spending time on balance of Power with Neil Bradley

974
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 3: from the US Chamber of Commerce. Is an important vote today,

975
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 3: the FTC is going to vote on whether to ban

976
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 3: non compete agreements. Now, this is being framed as a

977
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 3: pro worker effort. What are you hearing from your members?

978
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 3: What does it mean for employers?

979
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 2: Well?

980
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 14: I think there are two issues. FIRSTUS, the policy around

981
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 14: non competes and non competes literally go back to the founding.

982
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 14: People had non compete agreements when they were apprentices in workshops.

983
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 14: So this is not a new idea. It's always been

984
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 14: regulated at the state level. States and courts have adopted

985
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 14: different theories. The idea that we would ban all non competes,

986
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 14: which is what Lena Kam first proposed, is so radical

987
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 14: that Governor Hokele and New York just veat tota bill

988
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 14: that would do that exact same thing. Now, we don't

989
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 14: know what the final policy parameters are going to look like,

990
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 14: but we think that there's actually an even more important

991
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 14: issue at stake here, and that is the authority of

992
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 14: the FTC. Under their one hundred and twelve year old statute,

993
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 14: they judge anti competitive behavior in their anti trust role

994
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 14: on a case by case basis. They've never and no

995
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 14: one's ever believed they have the authority to write rules

996
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 14: regulating competition in the marketplace. And the reason is is

997
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 14: that if they can write a rule under the guys

998
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 14: of banning non competes or limiting non competes in this space,

999
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 14: there's no aspect of the economy that they couldn't, under

1000
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 14: the guise of regulating competition, issue a regulation on They

1001
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 14: put out a policy outline in twenty twenty two where

1002
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 14: they talked about things like loyalty programs. Well, are loyalty

1003
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 14: programs anti competitive because they lock you in as a

1004
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 14: consumer and rewarding a company over an over. Do we

1005
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 14: really think that three people at the FTC get to

1006
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 14: decide whether or not we have loyalty programs? They suggested

1007
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 14: things like in the M and A space, mergers and

1008
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 14: acquisitions that are currently legal under current law could by

1009
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 14: regulation become illegal. That's Congress's job, not the Federal Trade Commissions.

1010
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 14: And so we're quite worried about this power grab that

1011
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 14: it's really opening a Pandora's box to regulate prices, to

1012
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 14: regulate commercial arrangements between parties, to really get into any

1013
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 14: aspect that they want to to regulate.

1014
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 8: So the Chamber is going to take the FTC to

1015
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 8: courd over this.

1016
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 4: We will take the FTC to cords if they pursue.

1017
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 8: All right, on that note, we will leave it. Neil

1018
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:44,879
Speaker 8: Bradley of the Chamber of Commerce, thank you so much.

1019
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1020
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1021
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1022
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, d C.

1023
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 4: At noon time stud at Bloomberg dot com.