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Speaker 2: Good morning everyone, A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance is
Speaker 2: Sunday for you across America around the world. The Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News headline out right now. Iran reserves all options after
Speaker 2: US hits nuclear sites. Welcome to our coverage for the
Speaker 2: next four hours here. We've been working on it all
Speaker 2: night to bring you the best and conversation here. Terry
Speaker 2: Hayes will join us on the Pulse of Washington. Other
Speaker 2: good guests as well. Importantly, Nathan Hager in moments will
Speaker 2: come to us with an update. We'll do that often
Speaker 2: here as the news moves. We have voices from London
Speaker 2: and Moments to Ethan Brodner in Tel Aviv, and of
Speaker 2: course all of our usual Bloomberg news and Bloomberg surveillance
Speaker 2: sources with me on a Sunday is Paul Sweeney. Paul,
Speaker 2: the shock of those headlines last night. It was a
Speaker 2: calm before the storm.
Speaker 4: It was.
Speaker 3: And you know, President Trump had been out with some
Speaker 3: statements or later last week saying, you know, basically up
Speaker 3: to two weeks he may consider some strikes against Iran,
Speaker 3: and then of course came out last night with some
Speaker 3: serious strikes against the nuclear facilities here with some of
Speaker 3: the biggest ordinance that the US has, and we'll see
Speaker 3: what kind of response.
Speaker 5: We get from Moran in the days coming forward.
Speaker 2: The Tea Live go on the Bloomberg terminal is my
Speaker 2: major source for newsflow and aggregation of all that's going
Speaker 2: on out there. Good morning to Roslyn Matheson in London
Speaker 2: driving that coverage with Golnar Mountevali as well. We will
Speaker 2: go to conversations, but the new slow right now is
Speaker 2: so thick, so dense, that we will often go to
Speaker 2: Washington to Nathan Hagar for an update here with nine
Speaker 2: nine one FM in Washington.
Speaker 7: Nathan Hager, Tom Paul Good morning. It is potentially the
Speaker 7: most consequential foreign policy decision of President Trump's time in office.
Speaker 7: As we've been reporting, the President has authorized American bombers
Speaker 7: to strike Iran's three main nuclear sites. The President announced
Speaker 7: the attack first on social media and then in an
Speaker 7: address to the nation from the White House. Here are
Speaker 7: the President's remarks in full, as heard across Bloomberg last night.
Speaker 6: A short time ago, the US military carried out massive
Speaker 6: precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the
Speaker 6: Iranian regime for Doeau, Natanz, and s Fahan. Everybody heard
Speaker 6: those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise.
Speaker 6: Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity
Speaker 6: and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the
Speaker 6: world's number one state sponsor of terror. Tonight, I can
Speaker 6: report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular
Speaker 6: military success. Iran's key nuclear and Richmond facilities have been
Speaker 6: completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East,
Speaker 6: must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks
Speaker 6: would be far greater and a lot easier. For forty years,
Speaker 6: Iran has been saying death to America. Death to Israel.
Speaker 6: They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms,
Speaker 6: blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That was their specialty.
Speaker 6: We lost over a thousand people, and hundreds of thousands
Speaker 6: throughout the Middle East and around the world have died
Speaker 6: as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so
Speaker 6: many were killed by their General Cassem Solomoni. I decided
Speaker 6: a long time ago that I would not let this happen.
Speaker 6: It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate
Speaker 6: Prime Minister bb Net Yahoo. We worked as a team
Speaker 6: like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've
Speaker 6: gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.
Speaker 6: I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful
Speaker 6: job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate
Speaker 6: the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight,
Speaker 6: and all of the United States military on an operation
Speaker 6: the likes of which the world has not seen in many,
Speaker 6: many decades. Hopefully we will no longer need their services
Speaker 6: and this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want
Speaker 6: to congratulate the Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff,
Speaker 6: General Dan Raisin Kane, spectacular General and all of the
Speaker 6: brilliant military minds involved in this attack. With all of
Speaker 6: that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either
Speaker 6: peace or there will be tragedy. For I ran far
Speaker 6: greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember,
Speaker 6: there are many targets left. The nights was the most
Speaker 6: difficult of them all by far, and perhaps the most lethal.
Speaker 6: But if peace does not come quickly, we will go
Speaker 6: after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most
Speaker 6: of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.
Speaker 6: There's no military in the world that could have done
Speaker 6: what we did tonight, not even closed. There has never
Speaker 6: been a military that could do what took place just.
Speaker 2: A little while ago.
Speaker 6: Tomorrow, General Kine, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will have
Speaker 6: a press conference at eight am at the Pentagon. And
Speaker 6: I want to just thank every and in particular God.
Speaker 6: I want to just say, we love you God, and
Speaker 6: we'll love our great military. Protect them. God bless the
Speaker 6: Middle East, God bless Israel, and God bless America.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much.
Speaker 7: And that was President Trump speaking from the White House
Speaker 7: last night alongside Vice President JD. Van, Secretary of State
Speaker 7: Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. As we get
Speaker 7: more of a sense of what was carried out in
Speaker 7: the overnight hours, the New York Times is reporting that
Speaker 7: six B two bombers dropped a dozen bunker buster bombs
Speaker 7: on Iran's underground at nuclear site in Fourdah, the same
Speaker 7: weapons the Times as reporting were dropped on Natan's cruise.
Speaker 7: Missiles were fired at Natan's and the third site at
Speaker 7: Isfahan as well. The Associated Press says this morning that
Speaker 7: satellite images do show damage to the entries at Fordoh
Speaker 7: and the surrounding mountain side. And now, the US intelligence
Speaker 7: community had recently assessed that Iran was not committed to
Speaker 7: developing a nuclear weapon, and of course President Trump just
Speaker 7: days ago had said he would give Iran within two
Speaker 7: weeks before he made a decision to carry out that strike,
Speaker 7: But the President had said he did not believe the
Speaker 7: intelligence community's advice. This morning, Iran is vowing to respond.
Speaker 7: There have been sirens and explosions heard across Israel this morning,
Speaker 7: as the Israeli military says Iran has fired more missiles
Speaker 7: at Israel overnight. Meantime, the Times is reporting that Iran's
Speaker 7: medium range missile stockpile is depleted. Iran's Foreign minister Abos
Speaker 7: Arakchi says the door to diplomacy is no longer open.
Speaker 7: He plans to travel to Moscow today to meet with
Speaker 7: Russian President Vladimir Putin. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington, Tom
Speaker 7: and Paul back time.
Speaker 2: Nathan, thank you so much. We'll be hearing from mister
Speaker 2: Hagar often here across our four hours this morning. Again,
Speaker 2: we're fifty minutes or so away from an important briefing
Speaker 2: by the Secretary of Defense and I believe the Chairman
Speaker 2: of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is two ten
Speaker 2: pm in Tel Aviv. Changed Israel. We are advantaged by
Speaker 2: Ethan Browner with us leading all of our coverage out
Speaker 2: of the Middle East from Tel Aviv. Ethan, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us here on an exceptional Sunday.
Speaker 2: How is Israel changed this morning?
Speaker 8: Well, morning, Tom, morning, Paul.
Speaker 4: Look, Israel feels the sense in the air on television,
Speaker 4: radio and people on the street as an enormous gratitude,
Speaker 4: incredible sense of excitement, the belief that this.
Speaker 8: Very very powerful.
Speaker 4: Threat that had been hanging over this country's head for
Speaker 4: a long time. If it hasn't been eliminated, it has
Speaker 4: been very badly damaged. And in fact we're waiting both
Speaker 4: the Israeli officials and everyone, when do you see what we
Speaker 4: can learn about what happened at Foordah from those B
Speaker 4: two's And I think, but you know, even more importantly
Speaker 4: than the specifics of what happened and around us, this
Speaker 4: notion that the United States has embraced this country's outlook.
Speaker 4: The speech that President Trump just gave that you just played,
Speaker 4: it could not have been. It could would not have
Speaker 4: been written by almost by the coued spokesman.
Speaker 8: It was.
Speaker 4: It was a total embrace of the Israeli view of
Speaker 4: Iran and of its own.
Speaker 8: Future.
Speaker 4: And so it's now all that said, everyone is a
Speaker 4: little on edge and afraid, and flights have been were
Speaker 4: canceled all morning, and school is canceled and so forth.
Speaker 8: But we shall see.
Speaker 4: I think that there's a sense of an important corner
Speaker 4: having been turned Ethan.
Speaker 3: What are the expectations about retaliations, either it within Israel
Speaker 3: or the region?
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that there is enormous speculation about
Speaker 4: what Iran could and might still. Do we know that
Speaker 4: they still have some long distance ballistic missiles. We imagine
Speaker 4: that those four hundred kilograms of highly enriched uranium that
Speaker 4: they have, if they were holding at a place like Florida,
Speaker 4: was they say, was moved in advance.
Speaker 8: Of the bombing.
Speaker 4: So in theory, you could take sixty percent, which is
Speaker 4: what it was enriched to, you could take those containers,
Speaker 4: those canisters, and you can theory make a nuclear weapon
Speaker 4: fairly quickly. Would Iran do that? No one really thinks that.
Speaker 4: But nobody really knows. Could Iran attack American bases and
Speaker 4: so forth, Israeli embassies, All these things are being discussed.
Speaker 8: Nobody knows.
Speaker 4: Iran is very defiant in its public posture. But it
Speaker 4: must be said also that Iran hasn't been this week
Speaker 4: in a very very long time. I mean, all of
Speaker 4: its militias around the region have been taken out by Israel,
Speaker 4: and now it is very much on its back foot
Speaker 4: and led by a man in the late eighties who's
Speaker 4: probably in a bunker Ethan.
Speaker 5: What are the next steps?
Speaker 3: Is a beliad for the Israeli military who's had such
Speaker 3: amazing success in Iran.
Speaker 4: Or amazing success. Indeed, look they're continuing to attack in
Speaker 4: western southwestern around today. Let's not forget that Iran did
Speaker 4: shoot off about forty missiles at Israel early this morning
Speaker 4: Israeli time did. Nobody was killed as far as we know,
Speaker 4: but to seventy or eighty people were hurt, buildings were
Speaker 4: taken down, so they you know, there is still a
Speaker 4: sense that this ballistic missile threat is of enormous significance
Speaker 4: for Israel. The idea that every day, every night this
Speaker 4: country has to run to bomb shelters to avoid it
Speaker 4: is a huge threat. And you know, this is a
Speaker 4: country that is a big part of the digital economy
Speaker 4: of the world. It can't continue in this fashion. So
Speaker 4: they are continuing to try to take out those launchers
Speaker 4: and missile sites. But you know, we'll have to see
Speaker 4: what's going forward. It's still a little unclear what's next,
Speaker 4: and also it's unclear what the US will do next.
Speaker 2: We continue with Ethan Brown, are driving all of Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News out of Tel Aviv. We welcome all of you
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television around the world across the nation on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Good Morning as well, and a serious exam across Canada
Speaker 2: and the United States on Channel one twenty one, Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew coming up with a balance of power shifting in Washington.
Speaker 2: The first we continue with mister Briner.
Speaker 3: Well, Ethan, you mentioned the US military. Obviously a very
Speaker 3: dramatic and lethal strike by the US military overnight. Is
Speaker 3: there what is the expectation within Israel about the role
Speaker 3: the US may play in the hours and days to come.
Speaker 4: I think Israel has been extremely careful about expressing too
Speaker 4: much expectation. The idea being that, you know, we make
Speaker 4: it easy and then they want to join the winners.
Speaker 4: That's been the approach. They think that's been an effective
Speaker 4: approach with President Trump. Obviously, the President himself said we
Speaker 4: will go back if we do not get what we want,
Speaker 4: and he didn't specify in this speech, but has repeatedly
Speaker 4: specified that what Israel in the United States together want
Speaker 4: is for Iran to commit not to enriching uranium on
Speaker 4: in soil and to give up as highly enriched uranium.
Speaker 8: Iranda said it won't do that.
Speaker 4: I would say that the Israel is going to continue
Speaker 4: to do carried out and hope that the.
Speaker 8: US will join them when necessary.
Speaker 2: Yes, Ethan, one final question. I'm sure we'll be speaking
Speaker 2: to you in the coming days as well. Shean Bremer
Speaker 2: of Eurasia Group had a terse tweet or LinkedIn out
Speaker 2: last night where he said, this is the best week
Speaker 2: in the political career of mister Nta who do you
Speaker 2: agree with? That is? This is essentially mister Trump supporting Netanya,
Speaker 2: who is he could only dream of?
Speaker 8: That's correct. I don't think that.
Speaker 4: I think this is an incredibly powerful personal triumph for
Speaker 4: Benjamin Taniah, who this is a guy who was in
Speaker 4: pretty deep political trouble recently, and you know, it seemed
Speaker 4: like it was over for him. And the story I
Speaker 4: wrote for Bloomberg early this morning, I said that that Trump,
Speaker 4: sorry that Natanya had was seen as kind of golden
Speaker 4: a year, the guy who'd be forced out by a
Speaker 4: terrible tragedy failure on his part, but in fact views
Speaker 4: himself as Franklin Roosevelt, the guy who withstood the attack
Speaker 4: on Pearl Harbor and turned it into a massive victory
Speaker 4: for himself in the United States. So that's how I'm
Speaker 4: Natanio sees himself. And look, I think Ian Bremer had
Speaker 4: a point there.
Speaker 2: Literally, Ethan, as you were speaking of Pearl Harbor in
Speaker 2: December eighth, I was typing it into the computer. Ethan Bronner,
Speaker 2: thank you so much from Tel Aviv this morning. And
Speaker 2: we are on the same page and on the same
Speaker 2: page with Joe Matthew, of course, wired into the politics
Speaker 2: of Washington, his effort with balance of Power. Ethan, I
Speaker 2: go to December eighth, nineteen forty one, not for the
Speaker 2: drama of it or the equivalency of it, but it
Speaker 2: is seared in our childhood. How FDR drove forward a
Speaker 2: dialogue of war. I don't sense a dialogue here. Brief
Speaker 2: as on how Republicans and Democrats will address to say
Speaker 2: on the Sunday talk shows like Faceinination.
Speaker 9: Well, it's a great question here, and obviously you're going
Speaker 9: to hear a different angle from Democrats and Republicans. I
Speaker 9: think Democrats, you can understand, they're going to be asking
Speaker 9: for the right to declare an authorization for the use
Speaker 9: of force. They're going to say that the president is
Speaker 9: acting irresponsibly in some cases. I'm more concerned or more
Speaker 9: interested to hear from Republicans who don't agree, because the
Speaker 9: split that we've seen in Maga that some call a
Speaker 9: civil war, and that might be pushing it a little
Speaker 9: bit far has been fascinating, and this is something that
Speaker 9: weighed heavily on President Trump as he made this decision,
Speaker 9: knowing that Steve Bannon had lunch with him just a
Speaker 9: couple of days ago to urge restraint here. That is
Speaker 9: what preceded the two week announcement. Remember this interview with
Speaker 9: Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz that really brought this to life.
Speaker 9: Charlie Kirk and the others have been really challenging Donald
Speaker 9: Trump to stay true to his claim on the campaign
Speaker 9: trail to start no new wars. That was the hallmark
Speaker 9: of the first term. That was what's supposed to make
Speaker 9: him different than Joe Biden. And here we are now
Speaker 9: with MAGA trying to on a Sunday morning reconcile itself
Speaker 9: whether it should in fact back the President of the
Speaker 9: United States on something that they're very worried about.
Speaker 3: Joe to the extent we want to get a view
Speaker 3: on how President Trump's backing coalition and MAGA support.
Speaker 8: Who should we look to.
Speaker 3: There are there some figures that will really give us
Speaker 3: a sense of is there a break in his support?
Speaker 9: I think it's some of the names that I just mentioned.
Speaker 9: It's Steve Bannon. Who's really been driving this. It's going
Speaker 9: to be Tucker Carlson, who the President called cuckoo, remembering
Speaker 9: that Tucker Carlson stumped for Donald Trump. All of these
Speaker 9: guys were on the trail with him to try to
Speaker 9: get him elected, and they still call themselves tried and
Speaker 9: true supporters. Whether that breaks now is going to be interesting.
Speaker 9: They may back him on an isolated strike, but guys,
Speaker 9: we're all waiting to see what Iran does next and
Speaker 9: if it does strike US interests in the region, this
Speaker 9: is going to feel real different.
Speaker 2: Joe, get to the hegxith press conference, frame out the
Speaker 2: relationship of the Pentagon to the White House. Last night
Speaker 2: we had President Trump with the Secretary of State, the
Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense, the Vice President, all in civilian dress,
Speaker 2: the civilian superiority over our military. Tell us how General
Speaker 2: Cain and the others of the military fit into this discussion.
Speaker 9: These are great questions because there are a lot of
Speaker 9: new faces here at the Pentagon, and a lot of
Speaker 9: them other than Pete Hegseth, have really not been public
Speaker 9: figures so far. Our reporting, my reporting would suggest that
Speaker 9: it's in fact not Pete Hegseth. We should be watching.
Speaker 9: But Steve Feinberg, the Deputy Defense Secretary, who has been
Speaker 9: knee deep in this, working directly with the White House,
Speaker 9: crossing the Potomac to make that connection, while Pete Hegseth
Speaker 9: deals with a lot of hearings and a lot of
Speaker 9: other issues that have put him somewhat on the outs.
Speaker 9: With President Trump, they did stand side by side. We
Speaker 9: should note hegseeth Trump in the cross hallway at the
Speaker 9: White House last night, and Hegseth is going to hold
Speaker 9: forth in this news conference. He'll be the face of
Speaker 9: this publicly. Behind the scenes, it's Finberg working with the
Speaker 9: White House to a great degree, which is really something
Speaker 9: that feels unusual at a time of war.
Speaker 2: But with your expertise on this, Joe Matthew, I mean,
Speaker 2: the fact is Steve and Andrew Feinberg is a major
Speaker 2: Republican donor. We in the Bloomberg world, folks know him
Speaker 2: all with his work at Cerberus, a clay tennis player
Speaker 2: at Princeton, etc. Etc. What is his competency here within
Speaker 2: the Pentagon?
Speaker 9: Listen, That's not a question that I can probably answer,
Speaker 9: and we have a great team covering the Pentagon on
Speaker 9: that front. He hasn't been on the job for that long.
Speaker 9: Whether he has real military chops is another matter. And
Speaker 9: the same goes for a chairman of a Joint Chiefs
Speaker 9: who's got a great experience on the battlefield but is
Speaker 9: actually pretty new to this job. Remembering that Donald Trump
Speaker 9: wanted to clean house and Pete Hegseth did as well,
Speaker 9: all of this remains to be seen on really, frankly,
Speaker 9: what's the next move. We can't underscore the importance of
Speaker 9: what just happened, but this is not the end of something.
Speaker 9: It's the start of something when we start considering the
Speaker 9: needs of force protection in places throughout the Middle East,
Speaker 9: like Saudi Arabia, like even in Iraq and Syria, where
Speaker 9: we have thousands of US troops the UAE, for instance,
Speaker 9: could all be within the reach of Iran right now.
Speaker 9: And politically speaking, you know, how far does Congress let
Speaker 9: this go without, in fact and authorization for the use
Speaker 9: of force. That's going to be a big question in
Speaker 9: the weeks ahead, because this is not likely to be
Speaker 9: something that stops tomorrow.
Speaker 3: Joe, what do we expect from the Democrats here? There's
Speaker 3: some reporting that they were not even briefed on this
Speaker 3: operation here.
Speaker 9: Yeah, what's the actually interesting. It's not going to help
Speaker 9: the conversation. Like Tom said, coming up after we're done here,
Speaker 9: when we turn to the Sunday morning shows here on Bloomberg,
Speaker 9: they were already concerned about this. They were already calling
Speaker 9: out Donald Trump for preparing a strike like this. Now
Speaker 9: that he's done it, and they weren't in the loop.
Speaker 9: That goes for a lot of things around here. We've
Speaker 9: got a reconciliation process that they're not involved in as well.
Speaker 9: It's a familiar feeling for Democrats, but when it comes
Speaker 9: to national security, it has a bit of a different tinge.
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew, thank you so much for Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: Who will be with us through the show this morning,
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, we say good morning to you
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television, on Bloomberg Radio worldwide, a special Good
Speaker 2: Morning in ninety nine one FM in Washington. There will
Speaker 2: be a briefing here in forty minutes scheduled by the
Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
Speaker 2: of Staff. Well see who else shows up for that briefing.
Speaker 2: We welcome all of you around the world, particularly on YouTube,
Speaker 2: where you may subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts growing each in
Speaker 2: every day with a newsflow this morning, and thank you
Speaker 2: Roslin Matheson and Top Live. Go tliv go on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal worldwide. We need a briefing every twenty minutes
Speaker 2: in Washington, Nathan.
Speaker 7: Hager, Tom Paul. It is a wider war in the
Speaker 7: Middle East this morning. Last night, President Donald Trump said
Speaker 7: American bombers had completely and totally obliterated Iran's three main
Speaker 7: underground nuclear sites at Ford OH and Ton's and Ishfahan.
Speaker 7: In an address to the nation from the White House,
Speaker 7: the President said there would be far greater attacks if
Speaker 7: Iran does not make peace. This morning, the Associated Press
Speaker 7: as satellite images showed damage to the entries and surrounding
Speaker 7: mountain side at Ford Oh. The UN's nuclear watchdog had
Speaker 7: worn against an attack like this because of the risk
Speaker 7: of radiation leaks, but right now the International Atomic Energy
Speaker 7: Agency says there is no sign of increase in off
Speaker 7: site radiation levels, and Iran's Red Crescent says there were
Speaker 7: no deaths from last night's attacks. This morning, Israeli Prime
Speaker 7: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the strike was done in full
Speaker 7: coordination with his country. Now Iran is vowing to respond.
Speaker 7: There have been sirens and explosions heard in Israel this morning.
Speaker 7: Iran's Foreign minister of bas Arakchi says the US crossed
Speaker 7: a very big line last night that had also bombed
Speaker 7: the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and the International rule of Law.
Speaker 7: European Commissioned President Earth Levanderline says, now is the moment
Speaker 7: for Iran to engage incredible diplomacy while warning the country
Speaker 7: cannot obtain a nuclear weapon. China just released a statement
Speaker 7: strongly condemning the US strikes and calling for a ceasefire,
Speaker 7: particularly from Israel. Iran's foreign minister says he will head
Speaker 7: to Moscow today to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 7: That is Iran's strongest ally in the region. I'm Nathan
Speaker 7: Hager in Washington, Tom and Paul.
Speaker 2: Nathan, thank you so much, greatly appreciated for the markets today.
Speaker 2: Let's remember it is Sunday. Little trading on the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: launch bed. There is one thing trading in Paul. I'm
Speaker 2: frankly surprised Bitcoin is down so little. As a thermometer,
Speaker 2: a global thermometer of the moment Yep, it really hasn't
Speaker 2: declined all that much. Off the shock note of this.
Speaker 3: Geop and Tom, you know, Dan Curtis are from Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Television out of London.
Speaker 5: Some really good helpful news here.
Speaker 3: Just to keep us up the date, Oil, We'll begin
Speaker 3: trading six pm Eastern time tonight. US treasuries open eight
Speaker 3: pm Eastern time tonight.
Speaker 5: US equity futures will open around.
Speaker 3: Six pm Eastern time tonight, and the currencies around five
Speaker 3: pm Eastern time on Sunday, So it's later today.
Speaker 5: We'll starting to get a sense of the market's reader.
Speaker 2: I pick it up at seven pm as a traditional thing.
Speaker 2: Maybe it'll be a little bit earlier this time around.
Speaker 2: But look to Bloomberg this evening for the Asia morning.
Speaker 2: His book of thirteen years ago is definitive. It is
Speaker 2: indispensable when leaders really matter. It is a set of
Speaker 2: chapters of leadership in times of crisis for America. Gotamacunda
Speaker 2: joins us, of course, with Yale University, in this case
Speaker 2: a book from the Harvard Business Review of years ago. Professor,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for beginning our conversation this morning.
Speaker 2: We are alluding to December eighth, nineteen forty one in
Speaker 2: our memories is a protocol process of going to war.
Speaker 2: Did the president breach that protocol last night?
Speaker 8: Oh?
Speaker 1: Completely, We're not even in the universe of protocol. But
Speaker 1: that is not a set of laws and rules that
Speaker 1: we've been forced in my lifetime. So we're not going
Speaker 1: to start now.
Speaker 2: When you look at Indispensable, and I look at the
Speaker 2: chapter leading up to World War Two, which is on
Speaker 2: Chamberlain and then over to Churchill, is well from where
Speaker 2: you sit and the synthesis of your books and the
Speaker 2: presidency is this a nation behind its president, not at all.
Speaker 1: And so there's always a rally around the flag effect
Speaker 1: during a crisis. And I think the first opinion polls
Speaker 1: will probably be pretty supportive, but because they usually are,
Speaker 1: but most pulling for this beforehand was not supportive of
Speaker 1: a strike. And I heard the discussion about whether the
Speaker 1: MAGA movement will fracture over this. I doubt that it will.
Speaker 1: You're already seeing major people there who had yesterday opposed
Speaker 1: to strike today saying the president. The president has acted wisely.
Speaker 1: But for the country as a whole, I think a
Speaker 1: lot depends on what happens next. It is at this
Speaker 1: point the Iranians move not ours, that will determine how
Speaker 1: things play out.
Speaker 5: Gotham.
Speaker 3: What do you think pushed President Trump to make this move? Again,
Speaker 3: a pretty a very substantial move in terms of really
Speaker 3: aggressively deploying US military in a very sensitive.
Speaker 5: Part of the world. What do you think was his motivation?
Speaker 1: It really is and it's worth sort of emphasizing that
Speaker 1: there was no urgency here, right He had said, I'm
Speaker 1: giving you two weeks. The Arians had signaled they were
Speaker 1: open to negotiations, These facilities were not going anywhere. The
Speaker 1: Iranians were not about We're not within weeks of a
Speaker 1: bomb or anything like that. So it seems kind of
Speaker 1: like and getting inside the head of the president is
Speaker 1: always difficult. He saw the Israelis having an extraordinary tactical
Speaker 1: and operational success, and you can't overstate just how effectively
Speaker 1: it Israeli attacks event and he kind of wanted to
Speaker 1: get in on it. And also, you know, observed that
Speaker 1: there were a handful of targets that they could not
Speaker 1: strike that we could. And again we don't have bomb
Speaker 1: damage assessment from any reliable source, yet we don't know
Speaker 1: how well these strikes worked.
Speaker 3: What do you expect over the next coming days and weeks,
Speaker 3: got them from the US Congress, both sides of the aisle.
Speaker 5: In terms of response to this news.
Speaker 1: So many Democrats will be outraged that they weren't even
Speaker 1: briefed in, and that again is.
Speaker 8: A violation of the law.
Speaker 1: The law requires that you brief in senior Democrats as
Speaker 1: well as senior Republicans when you're doing this kind of operation,
Speaker 1: and the Trump administration just ignored that. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, I think Democrats probably don't want to be
Speaker 1: seen as being completely opposed to a successful operation if
Speaker 1: it is successful. So there's going to be some There's
Speaker 1: going to be some cross currents there, as there are
Speaker 1: on the Republican side, where Ran Paul I think has
Speaker 1: already come out and saying he opposed these actions. So
Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot of waiting and seeing.
Speaker 1: The domestic politics are going to depend a lot on
Speaker 1: how the r onind respond and how we respond to
Speaker 1: that response. But I will note so Robert Kagan had
Speaker 1: a really powerful article in the Atlantic yesterday pointing out
Speaker 1: that administrations that were a lot more sort of careful
Speaker 1: about civil rights and domestic rights than the Trump andministration
Speaker 1: have used wartime to crack down domestically, and there has
Speaker 1: to be some concern that the Trump administration is going
Speaker 1: to do that here too.
Speaker 2: I look at you. I think Kagan piece American democracy
Speaker 2: might not survive a war with a run. That's very
Speaker 2: strong language. Here got a Macunda. The basic idea and
Speaker 2: my heritage is on a presidential effort of military force
Speaker 2: the nation in some way rallies around him. At this
Speaker 2: press conference in thirty minutes. Is there going to be
Speaker 2: a nation rallying around the Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 1: I'm sure there will be some, but this administration has
Speaker 1: done everything possible to counter that. I mean, you even
Speaker 1: have them releasing photographs of him in the situation room
Speaker 1: wearing a campaign hat, you know, during a military strike.
Speaker 1: It's just impossible to imagine any previous president doing that,
Speaker 1: both out of you know you shouldn't, but also just
Speaker 1: because if you do want the country to rally to,
Speaker 1: you should give some signs that you respect and value
Speaker 1: half the country.
Speaker 2: I got him Accunnan with us and we will continue
Speaker 2: his book, Indispensable and Picking Presidents, looks at the history
Speaker 2: of the administration, the executive branch across America. We welcome
Speaker 2: all of you. A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Good
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast a special Good Morning to ninety two nine
Speaker 2: FM in Boston. Down here in New York City, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: eleven three to oh and Nathan Agers ninety nine to
Speaker 2: one FM in Washington. We will continue many good guests
Speaker 2: coming up here besides Professor Peter Shear's schedule to deg
Speaker 2: with this and plus Sweeney to the professor got him.
Speaker 3: How do you expect President Trump to play this in
Speaker 3: the days ahead? I mean, this is it appears at
Speaker 3: this early stage a wonderful military success.
Speaker 5: Do you expect him to play this up or to
Speaker 5: try to.
Speaker 3: Just move forward and not you know, expose any tentral
Speaker 3: riffs in his support?
Speaker 1: I think he will continue to play as success. But Paul,
Speaker 1: I'm just going to emphasize, we don't know if this
Speaker 1: was a success. R Let's just you know, go down the.
Speaker 2: List, right.
Speaker 1: We don't know where the uranium hexafluoride is, so we
Speaker 1: we just don't know, right, like is it buried under
Speaker 1: four doah? Is it in the tons is fahan The
Speaker 1: IAEA has said that they've just lost track of it,
Speaker 1: and at sixty percent that uranium is quite close to
Speaker 1: being ready to be weaponized. So if, just hypothetically speaking,
Speaker 1: if we damaged but did knock out but did not
Speaker 1: knock out four DOH, they likely will have enough centrifuges
Speaker 1: there that if they choose to make a sprint to
Speaker 1: a bomb, they might be able to do it relatively quickly.
Speaker 1: If we completely destroyed FOURDAU, then it's a different situation,
Speaker 1: but we don't know yet, so it's very sort of
Speaker 1: very early to be announcing that we have complete success here.
Speaker 3: So Galtam, I mean again, this was a significant escalation
Speaker 3: by the US. What do you think the US is
Speaker 3: willing to deal with in terms of retaliation here? If
Speaker 3: there is retaliation, is this going to be something that
Speaker 3: could drag the US into maybe a little bit more
Speaker 3: involved situation.
Speaker 1: I think that's the fear on everybody's part, including I'm
Speaker 1: sure the administration, which does not want that the Iranians all.
Speaker 1: There are at least some reports that the Iridiance have
Speaker 1: already started GPS janning ships in the Straits of Hormones
Speaker 1: if they really wanted to escalate, blocking the Straits would
Speaker 1: be a way they could do that, and that's probably
Speaker 1: still within their military capability since they can use mines
Speaker 1: instead of other things to do that, but that would
Speaker 1: have consequences right on the world price of oil. The
Speaker 1: Chinese would probably be very unhappy if they did that,
Speaker 1: so they may not choose to take that step. That
Speaker 1: means that more like attack on US forces and the
Speaker 1: Gulf attack sort of in the Gulf area, sort of
Speaker 1: attack on American embassies, things like that, and then I
Speaker 1: just sort of events have a momentum all of their
Speaker 1: own in which they could do that. And if Americans
Speaker 1: die in Iranian retaliation, then there's gonna be pressure on
Speaker 1: the Trump, on the President to do bond once again.
Speaker 2: Professor one final question, and I guess I go from
Speaker 2: Clash of Civilizations a thought from the Charles River up
Speaker 2: in Boston years ago. The clash of civilizations over Ian
Speaker 2: Bremer Eurasia groups every nation for themselves. Wow, if we
Speaker 2: set up a change of our foreign policy, Secretary of
Speaker 2: Rubio symbolizes that for the nation, what is the foreign
Speaker 2: policy coming out of state?
Speaker 1: It's not clear that foreign policy is coming out of
Speaker 1: state because I mean, apart from all the hats that
Speaker 1: that Secretary of Rubio is wearing. We keep seeing that
Speaker 1: Trump make statements to conflict with his If I were
Speaker 1: in state, what I would be really worried about is
Speaker 1: the signal we just sent is the way you make
Speaker 1: sure that the United States does not attack you is
Speaker 1: to already have nuclear weapons.
Speaker 9: Right.
Speaker 1: The North Koreans demonstrated that, and the Iranians and the
Speaker 1: Iranians who didn't have them more vulnerable. There have to
Speaker 1: be quite a few countries the world that are looking
Speaker 1: at this and saying, well, the non proliferation regime is over,
Speaker 1: because the air audience were signaling that they would negotiate
Speaker 1: and we and we struck anyways, and so they've got
Speaker 1: to be thinking that given this, given what's happened, the
Speaker 1: right thing for them to do is make a sprint
Speaker 1: to acquire nuclear weapons as fast as possible.
Speaker 2: Gunna, thank you so much, really appreciate it. This morning
Speaker 2: professor Yale University got a mcunder with his really incredible
Speaker 2: books and the presidency of the nation. Paul, I think
Speaker 2: the questions here into this press conference is actually where
Speaker 2: is policy coming from? And I remember Bush the younger.
Speaker 2: There was a surprise while they're making decisions at the
Speaker 2: White House. I'm unsure of this statement, Paul Sweeney. Can
Speaker 2: we say all decisions are coming from the White House?
Speaker 2: Maybe that is so?
Speaker 3: Yeah, It certainly seems like it, not just in military situations,
Speaker 3: but on pretty much all policies seems to emanate from
Speaker 3: the White House. And that's the way the President is
Speaker 3: comfortable managing his administration.
Speaker 2: Of extraordinary ability. With his tours of duty at Reuters
Speaker 2: in Jerusalem posts, Dan Williams has provided really granular coverage
Speaker 2: for Israel in the levant for all of Bloomberg News,
Speaker 2: and he joins us now from Jerusalem. Dan Williams, thank
Speaker 2: you for taking time in your afternoon on our Sunday
Speaker 2: morning here in New York. Dan, I look at the
Speaker 2: change in Iran and it projects to their support of
Speaker 2: Hezbola to the north in Lebanon, of maybe Gaza and
Speaker 2: certain forms as well, and other things. As the President said, Iran,
Speaker 2: the bully is the bully diminished.
Speaker 10: This morning, I think the Middle East power structure has
Speaker 10: been reordered dramatically, possibly more than seen in a single
Speaker 10: instant in decades. If ever, this is something that many
Speaker 10: in the Middle East were anticipating. Some dreading, some hoping
Speaker 10: for going back decades, the conclusive potentially invention of the
Speaker 10: US superpower, with US firepower putting paid to sites in
Speaker 10: Iran that would design specifically to withstand conventional attacks, including
Speaker 10: by Israel, which is arguably the Middle East's mightiest military power.
Speaker 11: So what we've seen now is Trump upending.
Speaker 10: Effectively a status quo that was in place, that was
Speaker 10: shaken admidly by eight or nine days of Israeli strikes.
Speaker 11: But nonetheless this changes the equation utterly.
Speaker 2: Dan, it is so important you bring us up and
Speaker 2: this goes back to October of nineteen eighty one. Paul
Speaker 2: Squeeny brought this up earlier. Dan Williams, is framed around
Speaker 2: the sea change of the War of nineteen sixty seven,
Speaker 2: seared in a memory of a certain vintage as the
Speaker 2: assassination of anwar sadat is all of Israeli leadership and
Speaker 2: maybe even Western leadership. Are they at risk this morning
Speaker 2: because of this bombing last night.
Speaker 10: That's an extraordinarily good question. It's very acute. It would
Speaker 10: seem that you're referring mainly to the prospects of upheaval
Speaker 10: within Iran against the Iranian leadership.
Speaker 11: Is that what you're referring.
Speaker 2: I'll go there as well. I think you can go
Speaker 2: both ways. It can be threats to the Iranian leadership,
Speaker 2: including the ayatola, or the other way, as we saw
Speaker 2: with Rabin in with Sadat decades ago. Which is that
Speaker 2: where we are this morning, where everyone I wouldn't.
Speaker 10: Say risk, I wouldn't say the Israeli leadership is at
Speaker 10: any risk. Indeed, there was an assassination of Prime Minister
Speaker 10: Rabine exactly three decades ago that was over risk taking
Speaker 10: and peacemaking with the Palestinians. If anything, the current leadership,
Speaker 10: specifically the Prime minist in NATANIAO, despite his very significant
Speaker 10: dipping popularity over judicial reform efforts two years ago, over
Speaker 10: the disastrous October seventh attack of Hamas which begun this war,
Speaker 10: I think you're going to see his popularity increase with this,
Speaker 10: including critics, and we've seen this already, the opposition leader
Speaker 10: rallying to him regular critics in the Israeli media, admitting
Speaker 10: that this war the way conducted it, and in fact,
Speaker 10: the way he conducted contacts with President Trump, such a
Speaker 10: President Trump decided to intervene that all works in Etenil's favor.
Speaker 10: I think he has as solid a position as he
Speaker 10: had had in recent memory in Israel.
Speaker 11: As for Iran, there's been.
Speaker 10: Much speculation that this situation could effectuate a regime change.
Speaker 10: I think we should be cautious about predicting that, if
Speaker 10: only because under threat of external action or under external attack,
Speaker 10: people tend to rally to their flag, even if in
Speaker 10: quieter times they were less likely to do so, even
Speaker 10: if in quiet times they were unhappy with their government,
Speaker 10: with a regime that rules over them. However, it's quite
Speaker 10: possible that in the long run, with this Iranian regime
Speaker 10: having seen its prestige dented, having been humiliated like this,
Speaker 10: seen its military might which provided it with a degree
Speaker 10: of domestic cloud as well so blunted by the combined
Speaker 10: force of Israel Israel in the United States.
Speaker 11: Right once that.
Speaker 10: Dust settles, we could actually see some serious change in
Speaker 10: the internal dynamics of Iran.
Speaker 3: Yes, Dan, what do you think the next steps are
Speaker 3: for Israel here? I mean it feels like maybe we're
Speaker 3: waiting to see what Iran does, but that's not Israel
Speaker 3: doesn't tend to wait and see what people do.
Speaker 5: They tend to act. What do you believe the next
Speaker 5: days will hold for Israel.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 10: Indeed, a couple things happened within short order of the
Speaker 10: world learning of these attacks ordered by Trump on these
Speaker 10: three sites in Iran, these three nuclear sites.
Speaker 11: One was it Israel announced it it has.
Speaker 10: Pursued its own nightly attacks, including one set of sorties
Speaker 10: against one of the sites attacked by the United States,
Speaker 10: It's Fahan, showing that the US must have struck some
Speaker 10: nuclear targets there. Israel is coming in perhaps on a
Speaker 10: mopping up operation, perhaps addressing targets that weren't addressed by
Speaker 10: the United States. As far as Israel's concerned, the work continues.
Speaker 10: There was also a missile in New Avs salvo Byron
Speaker 10: against Israel, quite a bit of damage six am pretty
Speaker 10: much the entire country going down to shelters. That would
Speaker 10: seem par for the course. The big question is was
Speaker 10: that all was Iran basically ticking a box in terms
Speaker 10: of its retaliation keep in minded as yet to retaliate
Speaker 10: to my knowledge against the United States. Perhaps it sees
Speaker 10: Israel as a US proxy and that's a safer retaliation option,
Speaker 10: especially if it's a one off. If indeed is a
Speaker 10: one off, I think what we're going to see now
Speaker 10: is very very very careful consideration with the part of
Speaker 10: the Uranian leadership, whether they should do an entire review
Speaker 10: of their position, whether they should capitulate on their nuclear program,
Speaker 10: submit to US and Israeli by extension demands regarding uranium enrichment,
Speaker 10: and in doing so preserve themselves, because it would appear
Speaker 10: to me the choice now faced by the Uranian leadership
Speaker 10: is between self preservation i Regime preservation, and preserving a
Speaker 10: nuclear program that has been significantly debraded, possibly retarded by
Speaker 10: months or even years. It's basically like guarding a JEALOPI
Speaker 10: of a nuclear program, even in the knowledge that will
Speaker 10: actually extend the military strikes suffered by the regime, potentially
Speaker 10: toppling it in an irrevicable manner. So I think it's
Speaker 10: quite a binary choice, and I think the Israelis and
Speaker 10: possibly the Americans, I think Trump actually made this quite
Speaker 10: clear and his statement are banking on the Iranians now
Speaker 10: doing an about face diplomatically, and this really bringing about
Speaker 10: dramatic change in the entire disposition, the entire direction of
Speaker 10: negotiations and the future of the nuclear program i e.
Speaker 10: And effective shutting down of what remains of the nuclear
Speaker 10: program should Iran agree to do that, Dan, It's.
Speaker 3: Been an extraordinary time in Israeli history since October seventh,
Speaker 3: so much change, most of it to the military benefit
Speaker 3: of Israel. Is there a view in Israel that things
Speaker 3: are really potentially different now?
Speaker 11: Yes, so it feels like a revolutionary moment.
Speaker 10: October seventh was a cataclysm Hamas. Basically it was a
Speaker 10: game changer in terms of an attack on Israel. What
Speaker 10: Israel suffered from that attack, completely surprised by a ostensibly
Speaker 10: fath inferior force. Hamas showed great original thinking, quite the
Speaker 10: military virtuosity if they like, they really pulled off a surprise,
Speaker 10: a shock attack on Israel. But it also changed the
Speaker 10: rules as far as Israel's concerned. If Hamas came along
Speaker 10: with a game changer, then Israel's actually going to change
Speaker 10: the game. And the new game as far as Israel
Speaker 10: Is concerned, is going in the offensive, destroying all potential
Speaker 10: threats in all neighboring countries and also Iran, which is
Speaker 10: what considered this arch foe and so far would appear
Speaker 10: with all the costs involved, and the costs have been
Speaker 10: very significant to Palacinians and Ghazatisraeli's, especially on the home front,
Speaker 10: it would appear that the Israeli campaign is being pursued
Speaker 10: to its full and may even succeed.
Speaker 2: Dan Williams in Jerusalem. We look forward to you're reporting
Speaker 2: here in the coming hours. Dan Williams with Ethan Bryner
Speaker 2: in Israel this morning